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Mo money, mo problems? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited November 2023 in General
Mo money, mo problems? – politicalbetting.com

Autumn Statement:* Inheritance tax cuts likely, Treasury looking at cutting 40% rate to 30% or 20%* Rates freeze for small businesses, VAT threshold to rise* BUT benefits squeeze to come* Fiscal headroom over £20bn, compared to £6.5bn in Marchhttps://t.co/fz5LAiQHHp

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  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,358
    edited November 2023
    I've always wanted to do a Notorious B.I.G. themed thread.

    Here's the video.

    NSFW

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUhRKVIjJtw
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    Yes, it’s rubbish

    Presumably they are panicking after the polling following the World’s Greatest Reshuffle

    The Tories are staring at either disaster or oblivion. Disaster is therefore the better outcome. It really is that bad
  • Options
    Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,358
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    Yes, it’s rubbish

    Presumably they are panicking after the polling following the World’s Greatest Reshuffle

    The Tories are staring at either disaster or oblivion. Disaster is therefore the better outcome. It really is that bad

    The majority of polls has seen the Labour lead slashed.

    Edit it is 50% of polls. Which is a majority if you round up.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,451
    edited November 2023
    Fifth Column.

    FPT:
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    in Bradford, the amount of children born to Pakistani parents who are first or second cousins has dropped to 46%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67422918

    An extraordinary paragraph in that report

    “The original research also demonstrated that cousin marriage roughly doubled the risk of birth defects, though they remained rare, affecting 6% of children born to cousins.“

    Rare?? 6%? More than one in twenty??

    What kind of imbecile marries a cousin knowing it increases the chance of a baby with a birth defect to more than one in twenty? Probably one born of a cousin marriage, I guess

    Anyways, thank Allah it is slowly fading away. A hideous, stupid tradition
    Doctors are attracted to work in Bradford as they get to encounter a whole range of conditions that they wouldn't see in other parts of the country.
    it is just sad. DON’T MARRY YOUR COUSIN

    How hard is that? The British Royal Family have not, it must be said, set a brilliant example. But at least they’re not the Habsburgs

    I’ve seen various theories that claim the Christian religious bans on cousin marriage as a reason why Europe got ahead while other cultures - worldwide. - languished

    It makes kinda sense. Anyway let it end, ASAP

    Speaking as a Bradford University alumnus, this is a great example of how gradual change can be encouraged.

    The trend persisting in this country was driven partly by communal conservatism - especially a dresire to preserve what are perceived as traditional values. The NHS / researchers / public health professionals have been working on birth defects and similar questions amongst the community for 2 or 3 decades.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,698
    Sixth Sense
  • Options

    Leon said:

    Yes, it’s rubbish

    Presumably they are panicking after the polling following the World’s Greatest Reshuffle

    The Tories are staring at either disaster or oblivion. Disaster is therefore the better outcome. It really is that bad

    The majority of polls has seen the Labour lead slashed.
    Naught but Tory boy propaganda!
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124

    Leon said:

    Yes, it’s rubbish

    Presumably they are panicking after the polling following the World’s Greatest Reshuffle

    The Tories are staring at either disaster or oblivion. Disaster is therefore the better outcome. It really is that bad

    The majority of polls has seen the Labour lead slashed.

    Edit it is 50% of polls. Which is a majority if you round up.
    Single figures? Parity?

    Reappointing election winner Dave to Government confirmed Rishi as the greatest Prime Minister since Gordon Brown.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,319
    MattW said:

    Fifth Column.

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    in Bradford, the amount of children born to Pakistani parents who are first or second cousins has dropped to 46%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67422918

    An extraordinary paragraph in that report

    “The original research also demonstrated that cousin marriage roughly doubled the risk of birth defects, though they remained rare, affecting 6% of children born to cousins.“

    Rare?? 6%? More than one in twenty??

    What kind of imbecile marries a cousin knowing it increases the chance of a baby with a birth defect to more than one in twenty? Probably one born of a cousin marriage, I guess

    Anyways, thank Allah it is slowly fading away. A hideous, stupid tradition
    Doctors are attracted to work in Bradford as they get to encounter a whole range of conditions that they wouldn't see in other parts of the country.
    it is just sad. DON’T MARRY YOUR COUSIN

    How hard is that? The British Royal Family have not, it must be said, set a brilliant example. But at least they’re not the Habsburgs

    I’ve seen various theories that claim the Christian religious bans on cousin marriage as a reason why Europe got ahead while other cultures - worldwide. - languished

    It makes kinda sense. Anyway let it end, ASAP

    Speaking as a Bradford University alumnus, this is a great example of how gradual change can be encouraged.

    The trend persisting in this country was driven partly by communal conservatism - especially a dresire to preserve what are perceived as traditional values. The NHS / researchers / public health professionals have been working on birth defects and similar questions amongst the community for 2 or 3 decades.
    Isn't cousin marriage a cultural practise driven (originally) by land.... inheritance?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    edited November 2023
    MattW said:

    Fifth Column.

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    in Bradford, the amount of children born to Pakistani parents who are first or second cousins has dropped to 46%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67422918

    An extraordinary paragraph in that report

    “The original research also demonstrated that cousin marriage roughly doubled the risk of birth defects, though they remained rare, affecting 6% of children born to cousins.“

    Rare?? 6%? More than one in twenty??

    What kind of imbecile marries a cousin knowing it increases the chance of a baby with a birth defect to more than one in twenty? Probably one born of a cousin marriage, I guess

    Anyways, thank Allah it is slowly fading away. A hideous, stupid tradition
    Doctors are attracted to work in Bradford as they get to encounter a whole range of conditions that they wouldn't see in other parts of the country.
    it is just sad. DON’T MARRY YOUR COUSIN

    How hard is that? The British Royal Family have not, it must be said, set a brilliant example. But at least they’re not the Habsburgs

    I’ve seen various theories that claim the Christian religious bans on cousin marriage as a reason why Europe got ahead while other cultures - worldwide. - languished

    It makes kinda sense. Anyway let it end, ASAP

    Speaking as a Bradford University alumnus, this is a great example of how gradual change can be encouraged.

    The trend persisting in this country was driven partly by communal conservatism - especially a dresire to preserve what are perceived as traditional values. The NHS / researchers / public health professionals have been working on birth defects and similar questions amongst the community for 2 or 3 decades.
    Good for them: the NHS guys. Kudos

    Now please do the same for FGM!
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,451
    I've already called the juxtaposition of a £100bn government deficit, reducing IHT and making life harder for poorer people repugnant in the last thread.

    Someone has smashed this Government's Moral Compass.

    It would, however, give Mr Starmer a reason to open up the whole IHT area for reform, which will be needed.
  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,977
    I don’t think anything this gov does can salvage it.

    It has no idea what the problem is, or how to fix things. Best example recently was Sunak on HS2 recently. He’s crap at politics
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994

    Leon said:

    Yes, it’s rubbish

    Presumably they are panicking after the polling following the World’s Greatest Reshuffle

    The Tories are staring at either disaster or oblivion. Disaster is therefore the better outcome. It really is that bad

    The majority of polls has seen the Labour lead slashed.

    Edit it is 50% of polls. Which is a majority if you round up.
    Impressive spin, cuz, but if you look at the entirety of the polls, Labour are still way way over the necessary support needed for a massive majority under FPTP. Whereas the Tories, since the World’s Greatest Reshuffle, have gone from 25-30% - indicating a bad defeat but not total extinction - to 20-25% - which does equal Canadian style oblivion

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Virtually every Tory MP should be bricking it. Extinction awaits, as things stand. And we are now likely less than a year from the GE with absolutely no sign of swing back, indeed it gets worse
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124
    DavidL said:

    Inevitably a government facing a thrashing is going to try to buy some popularity but the truth is that the underlying finances are not much short of desperate.

    Public debt is floating around 100% of GDP and there is good evidence that anything above that inhibits growth. There are mammoth off book debts in unfunded pension liabilities, the small matter of several hundred billion owed to the BoE, a never ending list of public works needing done, recently aggravated by the RAAC issues, a desperate need for more infrastructure and public services whose productivity post Covid is so awful that they are falling apart.

    But yes, tax cuts. That will do it.

    Tax cuts for the top 4%? Trickle down economics innit? How else do you think old colonials like @Leon can afford their Cambodian butlers?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    DavidL said:

    Inevitably a government facing a thrashing is going to try to buy some popularity but the truth is that the underlying finances are not much short of desperate.

    Public debt is floating around 100% of GDP and there is good evidence that anything above that inhibits growth. There are mammoth off book debts in unfunded pension liabilities, the small matter of several hundred billion owed to the BoE, a never ending list of public works needing done, recently aggravated by the RAAC issues, a desperate need for more infrastructure and public services whose productivity post Covid is so awful that they are falling apart.

    But yes, tax cuts. That will do it.

    We desperately need AI

    This isn’t just a British thing, by the way. Everywhere I go in the world I see enormous post-pandemic socioeconomic strains. Nowhere is thriving (except perhaps a few outliers like Oz, and a couple of lucky European countries - Norway, Iceland)

    The whole world is pretty fucked up, and a technological revolution might be the only thing to save us (and the planetary eco-system)
  • Options
    Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are weighing up last-minute cuts to income tax or national insurance to boost economic growth and the Conservative Party’s electoral fortunes.

    The prime minister and chancellor have taken the surprise decision to consider tax cuts for low and middle earners before the autumn statement on Wednesday, having been handed billions of pounds of additional spending power.

    While the move would fuel inflation, Hunt and Sunak could attempt to offset the impact by squeezing welfare payments and making cuts elsewhere.

    They are also considering delaying until the spring budget a widely expected reduction in inheritance tax, after accusations that halving the 40 per cent rate would constitute a handout to the rich during a cost-of-living crisis.

    The chancellor had been expected to wait until spring to introduce income tax cuts, but improved public finances and worse-than-expected growth forecasts have encouraged him to reconsider amid fears it might not be possible if he waits until next year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-considers-cuts-to-income-tax-and-national-insurance-vdtsp6prl
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    A tax cut for already wealthy people on their unearned income bequeathed by dead millionaires. Good luck with selling that one.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800

    Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are weighing up last-minute cuts to income tax or national insurance to boost economic growth and the Conservative Party’s electoral fortunes.

    The prime minister and chancellor have taken the surprise decision to consider tax cuts for low and middle earners before the autumn statement on Wednesday, having been handed billions of pounds of additional spending power.

    While the move would fuel inflation, Hunt and Sunak could attempt to offset the impact by squeezing welfare payments and making cuts elsewhere.

    They are also considering delaying until the spring budget a widely expected reduction in inheritance tax, after accusations that halving the 40 per cent rate would constitute a handout to the rich during a cost-of-living crisis.

    The chancellor had been expected to wait until spring to introduce income tax cuts, but improved public finances and worse-than-expected growth forecasts have encouraged him to reconsider amid fears it might not be possible if he waits until next year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-considers-cuts-to-income-tax-and-national-insurance-vdtsp6prl

    That would be a sensible move.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994

    MattW said:

    Fifth Column.

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    in Bradford, the amount of children born to Pakistani parents who are first or second cousins has dropped to 46%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67422918

    An extraordinary paragraph in that report

    “The original research also demonstrated that cousin marriage roughly doubled the risk of birth defects, though they remained rare, affecting 6% of children born to cousins.“

    Rare?? 6%? More than one in twenty??

    What kind of imbecile marries a cousin knowing it increases the chance of a baby with a birth defect to more than one in twenty? Probably one born of a cousin marriage, I guess

    Anyways, thank Allah it is slowly fading away. A hideous, stupid tradition
    Doctors are attracted to work in Bradford as they get to encounter a whole range of conditions that they wouldn't see in other parts of the country.
    it is just sad. DON’T MARRY YOUR COUSIN

    How hard is that? The British Royal Family have not, it must be said, set a brilliant example. But at least they’re not the Habsburgs

    I’ve seen various theories that claim the Christian religious bans on cousin marriage as a reason why Europe got ahead while other cultures - worldwide. - languished

    It makes kinda sense. Anyway let it end, ASAP

    Speaking as a Bradford University alumnus, this is a great example of how gradual change can be encouraged.

    The trend persisting in this country was driven partly by communal conservatism - especially a dresire to preserve what are perceived as traditional values. The NHS / researchers / public health professionals have been working on birth defects and similar questions amongst the community for 2 or 3 decades.
    Isn't cousin marriage a cultural practise driven (originally) by land.... inheritance?
    It certainly was that in aristo European families - and the pharaohs (who actually did sibling marriage)
  • Options
    MattW said:

    I've already called the juxtaposition of a £100bn government deficit, reducing IHT and making life harder for poorer people repugnant in the last thread.

    Someone has smashed this Government's Moral Compass.

    It would, however, give Mr Starmer a reason to open up the whole IHT area for reform, which will be needed.

    It is just staggering. WTF do they think they are doing and where are they going?

    We are going to get the truly bizarre situation where for IHT purposes one should arrange to die between next Wednesday and the election of a Labour government.
  • Options
    Mail confirms Suella is named after the Dallas character.

  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are weighing up last-minute cuts to income tax or national insurance to boost economic growth and the Conservative Party’s electoral fortunes.

    The prime minister and chancellor have taken the surprise decision to consider tax cuts for low and middle earners before the autumn statement on Wednesday, having been handed billions of pounds of additional spending power.

    While the move would fuel inflation, Hunt and Sunak could attempt to offset the impact by squeezing welfare payments and making cuts elsewhere.

    They are also considering delaying until the spring budget a widely expected reduction in inheritance tax, after accusations that halving the 40 per cent rate would constitute a handout to the rich during a cost-of-living crisis.

    The chancellor had been expected to wait until spring to introduce income tax cuts, but improved public finances and worse-than-expected growth forecasts have encouraged him to reconsider amid fears it might not be possible if he waits until next year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-considers-cuts-to-income-tax-and-national-insurance-vdtsp6prl

    That would be a sensible move.
    Obviously Sunak and Hunt read my thread.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124
    FPT
    isam said:

    in Bradford, the amount of children born to Pakistani parents who are first or second cousins has dropped to 46%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67422918

    I didn't know the Royal Family came from Bradford.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800
    MattW said:

    Fifth Column.

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    in Bradford, the amount of children born to Pakistani parents who are first or second cousins has dropped to 46%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67422918

    An extraordinary paragraph in that report

    “The original research also demonstrated that cousin marriage roughly doubled the risk of birth defects, though they remained rare, affecting 6% of children born to cousins.“

    Rare?? 6%? More than one in twenty??

    What kind of imbecile marries a cousin knowing it increases the chance of a baby with a birth defect to more than one in twenty? Probably one born of a cousin marriage, I guess

    Anyways, thank Allah it is slowly fading away. A hideous, stupid tradition
    Doctors are attracted to work in Bradford as they get to encounter a whole range of conditions that they wouldn't see in other parts of the country.
    it is just sad. DON’T MARRY YOUR COUSIN

    How hard is that? The British Royal Family have not, it must be said, set a brilliant example. But at least they’re not the Habsburgs

    I’ve seen various theories that claim the Christian religious bans on cousin marriage as a reason why Europe got ahead while other cultures - worldwide. - languished

    It makes kinda sense. Anyway let it end, ASAP

    Speaking as a Bradford University alumnus, this is a great example of how gradual change can be encouraged.

    The trend persisting in this country was driven partly by communal conservatism - especially a dresire to preserve what are perceived as traditional values. The NHS / researchers / public health professionals have been working on birth defects and similar questions amongst the community for 2 or 3 decades.
    To paraphrase Donnie Azoff, who married his cousin, if the child’s, you know, retarded, you’d drive up into the Pennines, open the car door, and let it go free.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    Mail confirms Suella is named after the Dallas character.

    She's more a sort of dumbarse character these days.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Fifth Column.

    FPT:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    in Bradford, the amount of children born to Pakistani parents who are first or second cousins has dropped to 46%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67422918

    An extraordinary paragraph in that report

    “The original research also demonstrated that cousin marriage roughly doubled the risk of birth defects, though they remained rare, affecting 6% of children born to cousins.“

    Rare?? 6%? More than one in twenty??

    What kind of imbecile marries a cousin knowing it increases the chance of a baby with a birth defect to more than one in twenty? Probably one born of a cousin marriage, I guess

    Anyways, thank Allah it is slowly fading away. A hideous, stupid tradition
    Doctors are attracted to work in Bradford as they get to encounter a whole range of conditions that they wouldn't see in other parts of the country.
    it is just sad. DON’T MARRY YOUR COUSIN

    How hard is that? The British Royal Family have not, it must be said, set a brilliant example. But at least they’re not the Habsburgs

    I’ve seen various theories that claim the Christian religious bans on cousin marriage as a reason why Europe got ahead while other cultures - worldwide. - languished

    It makes kinda sense. Anyway let it end, ASAP

    Speaking as a Bradford University alumnus, this is a great example of how gradual change can be encouraged.

    The trend persisting in this country was driven partly by communal conservatism - especially a dresire to preserve what are perceived as traditional values. The NHS / researchers / public health professionals have been working on birth defects and similar questions amongst the community for 2 or 3 decades.
    Isn't cousin marriage a cultural practise driven (originally) by land.... inheritance?
    It certainly was that in aristo European families - and the pharaohs (who actually did sibling marriage)
    The Hapsburgs married nieces, to the point where Charles II of Spain was as inbred as the offspring of a sibling marriage.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474

    Mail confirms Suella is named after the Dallas character.

    Which is odd, since despite her manifold faults, she is neither a drunk nor an unfit mother.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAtm-gvlbqE
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    Given Esher and Walton, Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London and Westminster are all marginals securing the support of the richest 1% might actually help the Tories in those seats where they are heavily concentrated.

    An IHT cut would also not just benefit them, 1 in 40 UK houses are worth over £1 million and those families would also benefit from an IHT cut. As would those who inherit from non parental relatives or friends or divorced parents and therefore don't get the spousal exemption for their main property and are hit for any inheritance over the £325k threshold
    https://www.savills.co.uk/insight-and-opinion/savills-news/339380-0/1-in-40-homes-now-valued-£1-million-or-more--according-to-savills
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578

    MattW said:

    I've already called the juxtaposition of a £100bn government deficit, reducing IHT and making life harder for poorer people repugnant in the last thread.

    Someone has smashed this Government's Moral Compass.

    It would, however, give Mr Starmer a reason to open up the whole IHT area for reform, which will be needed.

    It is just staggering. WTF do they think they are doing and where are they going?

    We are going to get the truly bizarre situation where for IHT purposes one should arrange to die between next Wednesday and the election of a Labour government.
    It can be arranged...
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    edited November 2023
    Countries i have been to these last two years:


    Ukraine: fucked (war)
    America: fucked (drugs, politics, guns)
    Turkey: fucked (inflation)
    Armenia: fucked (war, poverty)
    Georgia: fucked (Russia, poverty)
    Spain: fucked (debt, migration)
    Portugal: fucked (migration, poverty)
    Cambodia: fucked (Covid, corruption)
    Greece: quite fucked (poverty, but more varied salads, tourism helping)
    Thailand: fucked (Covid, corruption)
    Poland: doing OK. Food improving (but Russia!)
    Egypt: fucked (over population, eco-crash)
    France: quite fucked (migration, politics)
    Iceland: doing OK, nice soups
    Germany: fucked (economy hollowing, migration)
    Montenegro: quite fucked (corruption)
    Romania: OMG fucked (poverty, demography)
    Italy: fucked (demography, migration)
    Sri Lanka: totally fucked (everything)
    Maldives: nice, but rainy
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474

    MattW said:

    I've already called the juxtaposition of a £100bn government deficit, reducing IHT and making life harder for poorer people repugnant in the last thread.

    Someone has smashed this Government's Moral Compass.

    It would, however, give Mr Starmer a reason to open up the whole IHT area for reform, which will be needed.

    It is just staggering. WTF do they think they are doing and where are they going?

    We are going to get the truly bizarre situation where for IHT purposes one should arrange to die between next Wednesday and the election of a Labour government.
    If you're a tax adviser, you need to work on your bedside manner.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980

    Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are weighing up last-minute cuts to income tax or national insurance to boost economic growth and the Conservative Party’s electoral fortunes.

    The prime minister and chancellor have taken the surprise decision to consider tax cuts for low and middle earners before the autumn statement on Wednesday, having been handed billions of pounds of additional spending power.

    While the move would fuel inflation, Hunt and Sunak could attempt to offset the impact by squeezing welfare payments and making cuts elsewhere.

    They are also considering delaying until the spring budget a widely expected reduction in inheritance tax, after accusations that halving the 40 per cent rate would constitute a handout to the rich during a cost-of-living crisis.

    The chancellor had been expected to wait until spring to introduce income tax cuts, but improved public finances and worse-than-expected growth forecasts have encouraged him to reconsider amid fears it might not be possible if he waits until next year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-considers-cuts-to-income-tax-and-national-insurance-vdtsp6prl

    Sounds sensible, could target cuts to income tax and NI now inflation is under control, benefiting voters in the redwall and on average incomes in marginal seats Cameron won from Labour in particular.

    Then can target voters in the bluewall and home counties seats the Tories need to secure given many are Remain with an IHT cut in the Spring
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124

    Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are weighing up last-minute cuts to income tax or national insurance to boost economic growth and the Conservative Party’s electoral fortunes.

    The prime minister and chancellor have taken the surprise decision to consider tax cuts for low and middle earners before the autumn statement on Wednesday, having been handed billions of pounds of additional spending power.

    While the move would fuel inflation, Hunt and Sunak could attempt to offset the impact by squeezing welfare payments and making cuts elsewhere.

    They are also considering delaying until the spring budget a widely expected reduction in inheritance tax, after accusations that halving the 40 per cent rate would constitute a handout to the rich during a cost-of-living crisis.

    The chancellor had been expected to wait until spring to introduce income tax cuts, but improved public finances and worse-than-expected growth forecasts have encouraged him to reconsider amid fears it might not be possible if he waits until next year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-considers-cuts-to-income-tax-and-national-insurance-vdtsp6prl

    This might win the Conservatives another election, but it really isn't serious Government.

    The money from down the back of the sofa is essentially a bonus from high inflation. How is the BoE trying to control inflation? By limiting spending power through interest rate hikes. What are the PM and CoE doing now? Increasing spending power through tax cuts.

    Government spending is out of control, but public services are on their knees, we can't afford the next round of public sector pay requests, so what is the plan? Tax cuts.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    DavidL said:

    Inevitably a government facing a thrashing is going to try to buy some popularity but the truth is that the underlying finances are not much short of desperate.

    Public debt is floating around 100% of GDP and there is good evidence that anything above that inhibits growth. There are mammoth off book debts in unfunded pension liabilities, the small matter of several hundred billion owed to the BoE, a never ending list of public works needing done, recently aggravated by the RAAC issues, a desperate need for more infrastructure and public services whose productivity post Covid is so awful that they are falling apart.

    But yes, tax cuts. That will do it.

    The best plan for growth is to get down debt as a proportion of GDP.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    Leon said:

    Countries i have been to these last two years:


    Ukraine: fucked (war)
    America: fucked (drugs, politics, guns)
    Turkey: fucked (inflation)
    Armenia: fucked (war, poverty)
    Georgia: fucked (Russia, poverty)
    Spain: fucked (debt, migration)
    Portugal: fucked (migration, poverty)
    Cambodia: fucked (Covid, corruption)
    Thailand: fucked (Covid, corruption)
    Poland: doing OK. Food improving (but Russia!)
    Egypt: fucked (over population, eco-crash)
    France: quite fucked (migration, politics)
    Iceland: doing OK, nice soups
    Montenegro: quite fucked (corruption)
    Romania: OMG fucked (poverty, demography)
    Italy: fucked (demography, migration)
    Sri Lanka: totally fucked (everything)
    Maldives: nice, but rainy

    S Korea - potentially disastrous birthrate, but looking at healthy growth next year.
    (And edging towards rethinking their societal aversion to immigration.)
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    Leon said:

    Countries i have been to these last two years:


    Ukraine: fucked (war)
    America: fucked (drugs, politics, guns)
    Turkey: fucked (inflation)
    Armenia: fucked (war, poverty)
    Georgia: fucked (Russia, poverty)
    Spain: fucked (debt, migration)
    Portugal: fucked (migration, poverty)
    Cambodia: fucked (Covid, corruption)
    Thailand: fucked (Covid, corruption)
    Poland: doing OK. Food improving (but Russia!)
    Egypt: fucked (over population, eco-crash)
    France: quite fucked (migration, politics)
    Iceland: doing OK, nice soups
    Montenegro: quite fucked (corruption)
    Romania: OMG fucked (poverty, demography)
    Italy: fucked (demography, migration)
    Sri Lanka: totally fucked (everything)
    Maldives: nice, but rainy

    Surely Maldives: fucked (global warming)?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Yes, it’s rubbish

    Presumably they are panicking after the polling following the World’s Greatest Reshuffle

    The Tories are staring at either disaster or oblivion. Disaster is therefore the better outcome. It really is that bad

    The majority of polls has seen the Labour lead slashed.

    Edit it is 50% of polls. Which is a majority if you round up.
    Impressive spin, cuz, but if you look at the entirety of the polls, Labour are still way way over the necessary support needed for a massive majority under FPTP. Whereas the Tories, since the World’s Greatest Reshuffle, have gone from 25-30% - indicating a bad defeat but not total extinction - to 20-25% - which does equal Canadian style oblivion

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Virtually every Tory MP should be bricking it. Extinction awaits, as things stand. And we are now likely less than a year from the GE with absolutely no sign of swing back, indeed it gets worse
    No not extinction, even now about 100-150 Tory MPs would be elected, albeit would be a worse defeat than 1997 (but still better than Truss was heading for).

    Canada style oblivion would be the 16% the Canadian Progressive Conservatives got in 1993 which got them just 2 seats and saw them overtaken as the main party of the right by the Canadian Reform Party who got 19% and 52 seats.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election

    The UK Reform party are up in the polls but still a long way from overtaking the Tories, which really would be an extinction level event
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    Talking of chancers.

    Tory MP Brandon Lewis has taken up his 7th job as an adviser to company part-owned by two sanctioned Russian oligarchs

    He will be paid £250k a year for advising just one day a week and is now the highest-paid MP

    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1725600452962623917
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    I've already called the juxtaposition of a £100bn government deficit, reducing IHT and making life harder for poorer people repugnant in the last thread.

    Someone has smashed this Government's Moral Compass.

    It would, however, give Mr Starmer a reason to open up the whole IHT area for reform, which will be needed.

    It is just staggering. WTF do they think they are doing and where are they going?

    We are going to get the truly bizarre situation where for IHT purposes one should arrange to die between next Wednesday and the election of a Labour government.
    If you're a tax adviser, you need to work on your bedside manner.
    I tell it like it is :lol:
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,765
    DavidL said:

    The other thing to watch this week is that the cost of that public borrowing is going to rise and rise for a long time yet.

    There are several factors that are going to drive this. Firstly, most of the current debt was funded at ridiculously low interest rates over the last decade. As we are still in substantial deficit that debt will need to be rolled over but it will be refinanced at roughly 10x the cost of the current debt. As more and more of the cheap debt reaches maturity the proportion of tax revenues used for debt interest will climb and climb.

    Secondly, a significant proportion of current debt is to the BoE and we don’t pay interest on it. As QE is unwound we will have to pay interest on more of it.

    Thirdly, we are just not a great credit risk.

    Add these together and the idea we have “headroom” for tax cuts is almost morally offensive.

    "Long Term Decisions for a Brighter Future"
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    The other thing to watch this week is that the cost of that public borrowing is going to rise and rise for a long time yet.

    There are several factors that are going to drive this. Firstly, most of the current debt was funded at ridiculously low interest rates over the last decade. As we are still in substantial deficit that debt will need to be rolled over but it will be refinanced at roughly 10x the cost of the current debt. As more and more of the cheap debt reaches maturity the proportion of tax revenues used for debt interest will climb and climb.

    Secondly, a significant proportion of current debt is to the BoE and we don’t pay interest on it. As QE is unwound we will have to pay interest on more of it.

    Thirdly, we are just not a great credit risk.

    Add these together and the idea we have “headroom” for tax cuts is almost morally offensive.

    It is the magician's sleight of hand.

  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are weighing up last-minute cuts to income tax or national insurance to boost economic growth and the Conservative Party’s electoral fortunes.

    The prime minister and chancellor have taken the surprise decision to consider tax cuts for low and middle earners before the autumn statement on Wednesday, having been handed billions of pounds of additional spending power.

    While the move would fuel inflation, Hunt and Sunak could attempt to offset the impact by squeezing welfare payments and making cuts elsewhere.

    They are also considering delaying until the spring budget a widely expected reduction in inheritance tax, after accusations that halving the 40 per cent rate would constitute a handout to the rich during a cost-of-living crisis.

    The chancellor had been expected to wait until spring to introduce income tax cuts, but improved public finances and worse-than-expected growth forecasts have encouraged him to reconsider amid fears it might not be possible if he waits until next year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-considers-cuts-to-income-tax-and-national-insurance-vdtsp6prl

    Sounds sensible, could target cuts to income tax and NI now inflation is under control, benefiting voters in the redwall and on average incomes in marginal seats Cameron won from Labour in particular.

    Then can target voters in the bluewall and home counties seats the Tories need to secure given many are Remain with an IHT cut in the Spring
    None of these possible tax cuts whether IT NI or IHT would come in until 2024/5 tax year at the earliest. Apart from the logistical difficulty in applying changes to tax in a tax year which has already started, it would 'encourage' the voters to stay with CON at the GE to be sure of getting the tax cuts.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    Musk is at least engendering some light entertainment.
    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1725923861588541440
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    CatMan said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to watch this week is that the cost of that public borrowing is going to rise and rise for a long time yet.

    There are several factors that are going to drive this. Firstly, most of the current debt was funded at ridiculously low interest rates over the last decade. As we are still in substantial deficit that debt will need to be rolled over but it will be refinanced at roughly 10x the cost of the current debt. As more and more of the cheap debt reaches maturity the proportion of tax revenues used for debt interest will climb and climb.

    Secondly, a significant proportion of current debt is to the BoE and we don’t pay interest on it. As QE is unwound we will have to pay interest on more of it.

    Thirdly, we are just not a great credit risk.

    Add these together and the idea we have “headroom” for tax cuts is almost morally offensive.

    "Long Term Decisions for a Brighter Future"
    This is how you do it.

    There are more people in the U.S. workforce today than any time in American history. Unemployment has been under 4% for 21 straight months.

    There’s more to do, but inflation has come down by 65%, and we now have the lowest inflation rate of any advanced economy in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1725915542278590656
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Yes, it’s rubbish

    Presumably they are panicking after the polling following the World’s Greatest Reshuffle

    The Tories are staring at either disaster or oblivion. Disaster is therefore the better outcome. It really is that bad

    The majority of polls has seen the Labour lead slashed.

    Edit it is 50% of polls. Which is a majority if you round up.
    Impressive spin, cuz, but if you look at the entirety of the polls, Labour are still way way over the necessary support needed for a massive majority under FPTP. Whereas the Tories, since the World’s Greatest Reshuffle, have gone from 25-30% - indicating a bad defeat but not total extinction - to 20-25% - which does equal Canadian style oblivion

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Virtually every Tory MP should be bricking it. Extinction awaits, as things stand. And we are now likely less than a year from the GE with absolutely no sign of swing back, indeed it gets worse
    No not extinction, even now about 100-150 Tory MPs would be elected, albeit would be a worse defeat than 1997 (but still better than Truss was heading for).

    Canada style oblivion would be the 16% the Canadian Progressive Conservatives got in 1993 which got them just 2 seats and saw them overtaken as the main party of the right by the Canadian Reform Party who got 19% and 52 seats.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election

    The UK Reform party are up in the polls but still a long way from overtaking the Tories, which really would be an extinction level event
    There have now been two polls with the Tories on 19% (and other, slightly “better” polls, of course)

    If that pans out, then the Tories would be in double digit MPs

    And both those polls were taken BEFORE the Rwanda setback

    It really could happen
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,909

    Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are weighing up last-minute cuts to income tax or national insurance to boost economic growth and the Conservative Party’s electoral fortunes.

    The prime minister and chancellor have taken the surprise decision to consider tax cuts for low and middle earners before the autumn statement on Wednesday, having been handed billions of pounds of additional spending power.

    While the move would fuel inflation, Hunt and Sunak could attempt to offset the impact by squeezing welfare payments and making cuts elsewhere.

    They are also considering delaying until the spring budget a widely expected reduction in inheritance tax, after accusations that halving the 40 per cent rate would constitute a handout to the rich during a cost-of-living crisis.

    The chancellor had been expected to wait until spring to introduce income tax cuts, but improved public finances and worse-than-expected growth forecasts have encouraged him to reconsider amid fears it might not be possible if he waits until next year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-considers-cuts-to-income-tax-and-national-insurance-vdtsp6prl

    God only knows, they're changing their minds every 5 seconds
  • Options
    Meanwhile...

    Finland has closed its doors to asylum seekers at four crossings, arguing that Vladimir Putin is deliberatively sending them across the border with Russia because it has joined NATO.

    The Finnish Border Guard on Friday announced it would erect barriers from midnight local time at the Vaalimaa, Nuijamaa, Imatra and Niirala border posts in southeast Finland.


    Mail online
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    edited November 2023
    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to watch this week is that the cost of that public borrowing is going to rise and rise for a long time yet.

    There are several factors that are going to drive this. Firstly, most of the current debt was funded at ridiculously low interest rates over the last decade. As we are still in substantial deficit that debt will need to be rolled over but it will be refinanced at roughly 10x the cost of the current debt. As more and more of the cheap debt reaches maturity the proportion of tax revenues used for debt interest will climb and climb.

    Secondly, a significant proportion of current debt is to the BoE and we don’t pay interest on it. As QE is unwound we will have to pay interest on more of it.

    Thirdly, we are just not a great credit risk.

    Add these together and the idea we have “headroom” for tax cuts is almost morally offensive.

    "Long Term Decisions for a Brighter Future"
    This is how you do it.

    There are more people in the U.S. workforce today than any time in American history. Unemployment has been under 4% for 21 straight months.

    There’s more to do, but inflation has come down by 65%, and we now have the lowest inflation rate of any advanced economy in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1725915542278590656
    Weirdly, Uncle Joe isn’t boasting that

    America now has by far the lowest life expectancy of any advanced economy in the world! Under the Democrats, more Americans are dying of drug overdoses than ever before! With Joe at the helm, infant mortality is worsening to Global South levels!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,193
    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to watch this week is that the cost of that public borrowing is going to rise and rise for a long time yet.

    There are several factors that are going to drive this. Firstly, most of the current debt was funded at ridiculously low interest rates over the last decade. As we are still in substantial deficit that debt will need to be rolled over but it will be refinanced at roughly 10x the cost of the current debt. As more and more of the cheap debt reaches maturity the proportion of tax revenues used for debt interest will climb and climb.

    Secondly, a significant proportion of current debt is to the BoE and we don’t pay interest on it. As QE is unwound we will have to pay interest on more of it.

    Thirdly, we are just not a great credit risk.

    Add these together and the idea we have “headroom” for tax cuts is almost morally offensive.

    "Long Term Decisions for a Brighter Future"
    This is how you do it.

    There are more people in the U.S. workforce today than any time in American history. Unemployment has been under 4% for 21 straight months.

    There’s more to do, but inflation has come down by 65%, and we now have the lowest inflation rate of any advanced economy in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1725915542278590656
    In fairness our unemployment rate is only 4.5% and stable. It’s just we have far too many of us not producing enough.
  • Options
    alednamalednam Posts: 185
    I don't think the most right wing UK voters (even if they're Thatcher lovers) care very much about exactly when Thatcher saw firtto lower taxes. Nor do I think the most right wing voters concern themselves much with competence in a government.
    For the Tories to win, they have to make sure that those who voted for them in 2019 don't stay at home (which is what they very evidently did in recent by-elections). It's these people that Tories need to attract to the ballot box at the g.e. And I'd have thought that pretending that any fiscal headroom is simply there to be spent, and that cuts to inheritance tax are just what the nation needs appeal to the most right wing among potential Tory voters.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,806
    edited November 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Yes, it’s rubbish

    Presumably they are panicking after the polling following the World’s Greatest Reshuffle

    The Tories are staring at either disaster or oblivion. Disaster is therefore the better outcome. It really is that bad

    The majority of polls has seen the Labour lead slashed.

    Edit it is 50% of polls. Which is a majority if you round up.
    Impressive spin, cuz, but if you look at the entirety of the polls, Labour are still way way over the necessary support needed for a massive majority under FPTP. Whereas the Tories, since the World’s Greatest Reshuffle, have gone from 25-30% - indicating a bad defeat but not total extinction - to 20-25% - which does equal Canadian style oblivion

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Virtually every Tory MP should be bricking it. Extinction awaits, as things stand. And we are now likely less than a year from the GE with absolutely no sign of swing back, indeed it gets worse
    No not extinction, even now about 100-150 Tory MPs would be elected, albeit would be a worse defeat than 1997 (but still better than Truss was heading for).

    Canada style oblivion would be the 16% the Canadian Progressive Conservatives got in 1993 which got them just 2 seats and saw them overtaken as the main party of the right by the Canadian Reform Party who got 19% and 52 seats.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election

    The UK Reform party are up in the polls but still a long way from overtaking the Tories, which really would be an extinction level event
    Where do people think the 95% confidence range is for the next election by the way?

    For me it is around a 7-21% Labour win, and for me the outlier events beyond this range at both extremes involve leader changes that go massively well or wrong.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,193
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Inevitably a government facing a thrashing is going to try to buy some popularity but the truth is that the underlying finances are not much short of desperate.

    Public debt is floating around 100% of GDP and there is good evidence that anything above that inhibits growth. There are mammoth off book debts in unfunded pension liabilities, the small matter of several hundred billion owed to the BoE, a never ending list of public works needing done, recently aggravated by the RAAC issues, a desperate need for more infrastructure and public services whose productivity post Covid is so awful that they are falling apart.

    But yes, tax cuts. That will do it.

    The best plan for growth is to get down debt as a proportion of GDP.
    Yes. The deal was that Sunak was a boring twat but he and Hunt were grown ups who would make rational decisions in our long term interests. Boy, were we sold a pup.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Pulpstar said:

    Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are weighing up last-minute cuts to income tax or national insurance to boost economic growth and the Conservative Party’s electoral fortunes.

    The prime minister and chancellor have taken the surprise decision to consider tax cuts for low and middle earners before the autumn statement on Wednesday, having been handed billions of pounds of additional spending power.

    While the move would fuel inflation, Hunt and Sunak could attempt to offset the impact by squeezing welfare payments and making cuts elsewhere.

    They are also considering delaying until the spring budget a widely expected reduction in inheritance tax, after accusations that halving the 40 per cent rate would constitute a handout to the rich during a cost-of-living crisis.

    The chancellor had been expected to wait until spring to introduce income tax cuts, but improved public finances and worse-than-expected growth forecasts have encouraged him to reconsider amid fears it might not be possible if he waits until next year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-considers-cuts-to-income-tax-and-national-insurance-vdtsp6prl

    God only knows, they're changing their minds every 5 seconds
    Rubbish.

    As if they have minds.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Yes, it’s rubbish

    Presumably they are panicking after the polling following the World’s Greatest Reshuffle

    The Tories are staring at either disaster or oblivion. Disaster is therefore the better outcome. It really is that bad

    The majority of polls has seen the Labour lead slashed.

    Edit it is 50% of polls. Which is a majority if you round up.
    Impressive spin, cuz, but if you look at the entirety of the polls, Labour are still way way over the necessary support needed for a massive majority under FPTP. Whereas the Tories, since the World’s Greatest Reshuffle, have gone from 25-30% - indicating a bad defeat but not total extinction - to 20-25% - which does equal Canadian style oblivion

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Virtually every Tory MP should be bricking it. Extinction awaits, as things stand. And we are now likely less than a year from the GE with absolutely no sign of swing back, indeed it gets worse
    No not extinction, even now about 100-150 Tory MPs would be elected, albeit would be a worse defeat than 1997 (but still better than Truss was heading for).

    Canada style oblivion would be the 16% the Canadian Progressive Conservatives got in 1993 which got them just 2 seats and saw them overtaken as the main party of the right by the Canadian Reform Party who got 19% and 52 seats.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election

    The UK Reform party are up in the polls but still a long way from overtaking the Tories, which really would be an extinction level event
    There have now been two polls with the Tories on 19% (and other, slightly “better” polls, of course)

    If that pans out, then the Tories would be in double digit MPs

    And both those polls were taken BEFORE the Rwanda setback

    It really could happen
    Yes but even those 2 polls had Reform on only 10-11%, so the Tories were still ahead of Reform as the main party of the right (and the latest poll has the Tories on 25% and over 100 MPs).


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    So still not an extinction level event and ceasing to be the main party of the right. Unlike say France where Le Pen's National Rally has overtaken centre right Les Republicains as the main party of the right at both presidential and legislative level or Italy where Meloni's populist right Lega Nord has overtaken centre right Forza Italia as the main party of the right on votes and seats (even though the 2 are in Meloni's coalition government) or indeed Canada in 1993 where populist right Reform overtook the centre right Progressive Conservatives on votes and seats (until the 2 eventually merged to form today's Conservative Party of Canada in 1993).
  • Options

    Mail confirms Suella is named after the Dallas character.

    The Mail noticed Suella saying it herself some time back?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
    Yep, you must be on the first line of the first page.

    I wonder if Estelle Morris weighed her performance up against the last 13 years of incompetence whether she would re-evaluate or at least mitigate her total unsuitability for the role of Ed. Sec.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
    Yep, you must be on the first line of the first page.

    I wonder if Estelle Morris weighed her performance up against the last 13 years of incompetence whether she would re-evaluate or at least mitigate her total unsuitability for the role of Ed. Sec.
    She was also a teacher so had more frontline experience than most Education Secretaries, last one before her was Gillian Shepherd I believe
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to watch this week is that the cost of that public borrowing is going to rise and rise for a long time yet.

    There are several factors that are going to drive this. Firstly, most of the current debt was funded at ridiculously low interest rates over the last decade. As we are still in substantial deficit that debt will need to be rolled over but it will be refinanced at roughly 10x the cost of the current debt. As more and more of the cheap debt reaches maturity the proportion of tax revenues used for debt interest will climb and climb.

    Secondly, a significant proportion of current debt is to the BoE and we don’t pay interest on it. As QE is unwound we will have to pay interest on more of it.

    Thirdly, we are just not a great credit risk.

    Add these together and the idea we have “headroom” for tax cuts is almost morally offensive.

    "Long Term Decisions for a Brighter Future"
    This is how you do it.

    There are more people in the U.S. workforce today than any time in American history. Unemployment has been under 4% for 21 straight months.

    There’s more to do, but inflation has come down by 65%, and we now have the lowest inflation rate of any advanced economy in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1725915542278590656
    In fairness our unemployment rate is only 4.5% and stable. It’s just we have far too many of us not producing enough.
    Everyone in employment or self-employment is posting on PB instead of putting in a shift?
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Countries i have been to these last two years:


    Ukraine: fucked (war)
    America: fucked (drugs, politics, guns)
    Turkey: fucked (inflation)
    Armenia: fucked (war, poverty)
    Georgia: fucked (Russia, poverty)
    Spain: fucked (debt, migration)
    Portugal: fucked (migration, poverty)
    Cambodia: fucked (Covid, corruption)
    Thailand: fucked (Covid, corruption)
    Poland: doing OK. Food improving (but Russia!)
    Egypt: fucked (over population, eco-crash)
    France: quite fucked (migration, politics)
    Iceland: doing OK, nice soups
    Montenegro: quite fucked (corruption)
    Romania: OMG fucked (poverty, demography)
    Italy: fucked (demography, migration)
    Sri Lanka: totally fucked (everything)
    Maldives: nice, but rainy

    Surely Maldives: fucked (global warming)?
    And Iceland: fucked (geology)
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to watch this week is that the cost of that public borrowing is going to rise and rise for a long time yet.

    There are several factors that are going to drive this. Firstly, most of the current debt was funded at ridiculously low interest rates over the last decade. As we are still in substantial deficit that debt will need to be rolled over but it will be refinanced at roughly 10x the cost of the current debt. As more and more of the cheap debt reaches maturity the proportion of tax revenues used for debt interest will climb and climb.

    Secondly, a significant proportion of current debt is to the BoE and we don’t pay interest on it. As QE is unwound we will have to pay interest on more of it.

    Thirdly, we are just not a great credit risk.

    Add these together and the idea we have “headroom” for tax cuts is almost morally offensive.

    "Long Term Decisions for a Brighter Future"
    This is how you do it.

    There are more people in the U.S. workforce today than any time in American history. Unemployment has been under 4% for 21 straight months.

    There’s more to do, but inflation has come down by 65%, and we now have the lowest inflation rate of any advanced economy in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1725915542278590656
    In fairness our unemployment rate is only 4.5% and stable. It’s just we have far too many of us not producing enough.
    Everyone in employment or self-employment is posting on PB instead of putting in a shift?
    Some of us can multitask.

    I have been on a date, working in gainful employment, keeping up with the cricket, and writing a PB thread header (in my head) all at the same time.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
    Yep, you must be on the first line of the first page.

    I wonder if Estelle Morris weighed her performance up against the last 13 years of incompetence whether she would re-evaluate or at least mitigate her total unsuitability for the role of Ed. Sec.
    The truth is, it doesn't really matter how good, or intelligent, or otherwise you are as SoS for Education.

    The problem is the department itself which for many years had a culture of failure, mediocrity, arrogance and complete ignorance that has been highly damaging.

    And then blame everyone but themselves for it.

    They're the Post Office with a wider remit.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
    Yep, you must be on the first line of the first page.

    I wonder if Estelle Morris weighed her performance up against the last 13 years of incompetence whether she would re-evaluate or at least mitigate her total unsuitability for the role of Ed. Sec.
    The truth is, it doesn't really matter how good, or intelligent, or otherwise you are as SoS for Education.

    The problem is the department itself which for many years had a culture of failure, mediocrity, arrogance and complete ignorance that has been highly damaging.

    And then blame everyone but themselves for it.

    They're the Post Office with a wider remit.
    So you agree with Michael Gove & Dom Cummings?

    :smiley:
  • Options
    As Finland now forbids anyone from crossing the border on foot or bicycle, some of Saturday’s arrivals had switched to traditional kick scooters as their mode of transport.

    https://yle.fi/a/74-20060953
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Inevitably a government facing a thrashing is going to try to buy some popularity but the truth is that the underlying finances are not much short of desperate.

    Public debt is floating around 100% of GDP and there is good evidence that anything above that inhibits growth. There are mammoth off book debts in unfunded pension liabilities, the small matter of several hundred billion owed to the BoE, a never ending list of public works needing done, recently aggravated by the RAAC issues, a desperate need for more infrastructure and public services whose productivity post Covid is so awful that they are falling apart.

    But yes, tax cuts. That will do it.

    The best plan for growth is to get down debt as a proportion of GDP.
    Yes. The deal was that Sunak was a boring twat but he and Hunt were grown ups who would make rational decisions in our long term interests. Boy, were we sold a pup.
    It's just useless. Rumour of this tax cut and that tax cut. When many if the tax cuts don't materialise it will annoy far more than those who are happy with the tax cuts that do occur.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to watch this week is that the cost of that public borrowing is going to rise and rise for a long time yet.

    There are several factors that are going to drive this. Firstly, most of the current debt was funded at ridiculously low interest rates over the last decade. As we are still in substantial deficit that debt will need to be rolled over but it will be refinanced at roughly 10x the cost of the current debt. As more and more of the cheap debt reaches maturity the proportion of tax revenues used for debt interest will climb and climb.

    Secondly, a significant proportion of current debt is to the BoE and we don’t pay interest on it. As QE is unwound we will have to pay interest on more of it.

    Thirdly, we are just not a great credit risk.

    Add these together and the idea we have “headroom” for tax cuts is almost morally offensive.

    "Long Term Decisions for a Brighter Future"
    This is how you do it.

    There are more people in the U.S. workforce today than any time in American history. Unemployment has been under 4% for 21 straight months.

    There’s more to do, but inflation has come down by 65%, and we now have the lowest inflation rate of any advanced economy in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1725915542278590656
    In fairness our unemployment rate is only 4.5% and stable. It’s just we have far too many of us not producing enough.
    Everyone in employment or self-employment is posting on PB instead of putting in a shift?
    Some of us can multitask.

    I have been on a date, working in gainful employment, keeping up with the cricket, and writing a PB thread header (in my head) all at the same time.
    Quite so. Some PB-ers seem to think that if you’re posting on PB that’s all you’re doing

    In the last three hours I’ve been posting on PB but also: having a wank (sorry), checking out the crisis at OpenAI, eating a dinner of modern Cambodian cuisine with my new friend chef Jesus Guzman, diving in the sea to look at blue plankton and applying for a visa to Myanmar
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
    Yep, you must be on the first line of the first page.

    I wonder if Estelle Morris weighed her performance up against the last 13 years of incompetence whether she would re-evaluate or at least mitigate her total unsuitability for the role of Ed. Sec.
    The truth is, it doesn't really matter how good, or intelligent, or otherwise you are as SoS for Education.

    The problem is the department itself which for many years had a culture of failure, mediocrity, arrogance and complete ignorance that has been highly damaging.

    And then blame everyone but themselves for it.

    They're the Post Office with a wider remit.
    So you agree with Michael Gove & Dom Cummings?

    :smiley:
    I always agreed with their diagnoses of the problems.

    If only because the problems themselves are very obvious and easy to understand, even for people of the intellectual calibre of Winnie the Pooh (like Cummings).

    The issue was that as ignorant retards their suggested solutions made things worse, and as arrogant fools they wouldn't accept it when this was pointed out,

    They were just as bad as the civil servants themselves.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,532
    I've spent much of today despairing of the abysmal weather down here and lamenting the absence of cricket or football (apart from Wales) on a Saturday. So, I've had time to ponder carefully and evaluate the rumoured reduction in IHT, whether next week or in the Spring, and am happy to share my considered conclusion:

    Absolutely fucking bonkers. (So they'll probably do it).
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937

    As Finland now forbids anyone from crossing the border on foot or bicycle, some of Saturday’s arrivals had switched to traditional kick scooters as their mode of transport.

    https://yle.fi/a/74-20060953

    Note this is Russia using illegal immigration as a weapon; as they encouraged Belarussia to do with Poland. In that case, it is alleged Belarussia *flew* immigrants in, then took them to the Polish border.
  • Options

    James Johnson
    @jamesjohnson252
    NEW
    @JLPartnersPolls
    Cabinet Tracker in The Sunday Times

    🔵 Rishi Sunak down 9 points since July, now second most-unpopular in Cabinet with the public
    🔵 Cameron debuts on -35
    🔵 Tom Tugendhat now top
    🔵 Cleverly up 6 points
  • Options
    Blanche’s Baked Beans

    This is the list of ingredients I used the other night, and how I cooked them, but I don’t have a fixed recipe

    75g diced smoked pancetta (lardons or chopped up streaky bacon rashers work fine)
    2 finely sliced cloves garlic
    1 finely chopped small red onion
    1 tin of haricot beans (I’d usually use more beans with this amount of sauce, but I’d usually soak dried beans which my Waitrose doesn’t sell)
    200g soffritto (I bought a pack from Waitrose, but it’s a really good thing to make a big batch of and freeze in portions so you can use have it ready for stuff like this)
    1 tin chopped tomatoes (I used Mutti. Don’t skimp on tinned tomatoes, buy the best)
    About 50ml red wine vinegar
    A heaped teaspoon of muscovado sugar
    Loads of freshly ground black pepper (I apply it liberally at various stages of cooking)

    Gently fry and stir the pancetta until it’s released enough fat to cook the garlic and onions, then add them. Turn up heat to medium and fry until onions are softened. Stir the drained beans in and stir fry for a minute. Add soffritto, vinegar and sugar; keep stirring until it starts to boil then add tomatoes. Bring back almost to boil then transfer to preheated oven dish and oven at 170C, covered for thirty minutes, then uncovered for fifteen. Eat and hate tinned “baked” beans forever
  • Options
    I remember when I made this point years ago and I was denounced by the Cybernats because they knew better unlike me who does this for a living.

    Independent Scotland ‘would need own currency’ before joining EU

    Critics warn that the government’s own report highlights barriers to entry


    An independent Scotland could not join the European Union until it establishes its own new currency, critics say the latest independence prospectus paper confirms.

    Angus Robertson, the constitution secretary, suggested that an independent Scotland could join the EU within two to five years of negotiations starting, as he published the seventh paper in the Scottish government’s prospectus series.

    The 78-page document claims the nation would likely become a “net contributor” to the EU’s budget. It described plans for checks on goods which are traded across the border between an independent Scotland and England, with Robertson saying there would be the “least friction possible”.

    Critics say the paper also admits, though, that Scotland could not rejoin the EU until it had established its own new currency.

    The paper reads: “This Scottish government would apply to join the EU as soon as possible after independence whilst continuing to use sterling at the point of application. The process of establishing a Scottish pound would be closely aligned with the process of rejoining the EU.”

    Sam Taylor, of the think tank These Islands, said this was an “an oblique way of conceding that an independent Scotland could not join the EU until it had established its own new currency”.

    Speaking during a launch event for the paper, at Queen Margaret University in Musselburgh, East Lothian, Robertson confirmed that Scotland’s currency would change after independence to a “Scottish pound”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/independent-scotland-would-need-own-currency-before-joining-eu-c690jcgtk

    Still waiting for an answer on the LOLR.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    Leon said:

    Countries i have been to these last two years:


    Ukraine: fucked (war)
    America: fucked (drugs, politics, guns)
    Turkey: fucked (inflation)
    Armenia: fucked (war, poverty)
    Georgia: fucked (Russia, poverty)
    Spain: fucked (debt, migration)
    Portugal: fucked (migration, poverty)
    Cambodia: fucked (Covid, corruption)
    Greece: quite fucked (poverty, but more varied salads, tourism helping)
    Thailand: fucked (Covid, corruption)
    Poland: doing OK. Food improving (but Russia!)
    Egypt: fucked (over population, eco-crash)
    France: quite fucked (migration, politics)
    Iceland: doing OK, nice soups
    Germany: fucked (economy hollowing, migration)
    Montenegro: quite fucked (corruption)
    Romania: OMG fucked (poverty, demography)
    Italy: fucked (demography, migration)
    Sri Lanka: totally fucked (everything)
    Maldives: nice, but rainy

    I’d say Georgia: doing ok because of Russian draft dodgers with money, but precarious.

    France: not as fucked as people assume. About as fucked as the UK or a little less. Somewhat less fucked than Germany or Italy.

    America: doesn’t know how lucky it is. Needs to actually spend some of its wealth on destitution and social issues.

    I agree on Poland. But where’s really doing well? Where has 1. Good demographics, 2. Social stability, 3. Growing economy, 4. Ethnic concord?

    Only one place. Singapore. Which is boring as hell.
  • Options

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to watch this week is that the cost of that public borrowing is going to rise and rise for a long time yet.

    There are several factors that are going to drive this. Firstly, most of the current debt was funded at ridiculously low interest rates over the last decade. As we are still in substantial deficit that debt will need to be rolled over but it will be refinanced at roughly 10x the cost of the current debt. As more and more of the cheap debt reaches maturity the proportion of tax revenues used for debt interest will climb and climb.

    Secondly, a significant proportion of current debt is to the BoE and we don’t pay interest on it. As QE is unwound we will have to pay interest on more of it.

    Thirdly, we are just not a great credit risk.

    Add these together and the idea we have “headroom” for tax cuts is almost morally offensive.

    "Long Term Decisions for a Brighter Future"
    This is how you do it.

    There are more people in the U.S. workforce today than any time in American history. Unemployment has been under 4% for 21 straight months.

    There’s more to do, but inflation has come down by 65%, and we now have the lowest inflation rate of any advanced economy in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1725915542278590656
    In fairness our unemployment rate is only 4.5% and stable. It’s just we have far too many of us not producing enough.
    Everyone in employment or self-employment is posting on PB instead of putting in a shift?
    Some of us can multitask.

    I have been on a date, working in gainful employment, keeping up with the cricket, and writing a PB thread header (in my head) all at the same time.
    Quite so. Some PB-ers seem to think that if you’re posting on PB that’s all you’re doing

    In the last three hours I’ve been posting on PB but also: having a wank (sorry), checking out the crisis at OpenAI, eating a dinner of modern Cambodian cuisine with my new friend chef Jesus Guzman, diving in the sea to look at blue plankton and applying for a visa to Myanmar
    Far too much information! Who cares what you've been eating?
    The first two items in the list are in the wrong order surely?
  • Options

    I've spent much of today despairing of the abysmal weather down here and lamenting the absence of cricket or football (apart from Wales) on a Saturday. So, I've had time to ponder carefully and evaluate the rumoured reduction in IHT, whether next week or in the Spring, and am happy to share my considered conclusion:

    Absolutely fucking bonkers. (So they'll probably do it).

    Who knows. Perhaps some teenage PPE intern thought leaking this IHT nonsense was worth a punt as far as the old kite flying idea goes?

    Now SE England - clinging to the hope that it would be freed from the oppressive IHT yoke - may find itself gutted that nothing has changed on Wednesday.

  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Mail confirms Suella is named after the Dallas character.

    Which is odd, since despite her manifold faults, she is neither a drunk nor an unfit mother.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAtm-gvlbqE
    Wasn't it Sue Ellen?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Yes, it’s rubbish

    Presumably they are panicking after the polling following the World’s Greatest Reshuffle

    The Tories are staring at either disaster or oblivion. Disaster is therefore the better outcome. It really is that bad

    The majority of polls has seen the Labour lead slashed.

    Edit it is 50% of polls. Which is a majority if you round up.
    Impressive spin, cuz, but if you look at the entirety of the polls, Labour are still way way over the necessary support needed for a massive majority under FPTP. Whereas the Tories, since the World’s Greatest Reshuffle, have gone from 25-30% - indicating a bad defeat but not total extinction - to 20-25% - which does equal Canadian style oblivion

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Virtually every Tory MP should be bricking it. Extinction awaits, as things stand. And we are now likely less than a year from the GE with absolutely no sign of swing back, indeed it gets worse
    No not extinction, even now about 100-150 Tory MPs would be elected, albeit would be a worse defeat than 1997 (but still better than Truss was heading for).

    Canada style oblivion would be the 16% the Canadian Progressive Conservatives got in 1993 which got them just 2 seats and saw them overtaken as the main party of the right by the Canadian Reform Party who got 19% and 52 seats.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election

    The UK Reform party are up in the polls but still a long way from overtaking the Tories, which really would be an extinction level event
    There have now been two polls with the Tories on 19% (and other, slightly “better” polls, of course)

    If that pans out, then the Tories would be in double digit MPs

    And both those polls were taken BEFORE the Rwanda setback

    It really could happen
    Yes but even those 2 polls had Reform on only 10-11%, so the Tories were still ahead of Reform as the main party of the right (and the latest poll has the Tories on 25% and over 100 MPs).


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    So still not an extinction level event and ceasing to be the main party of the right. Unlike say France where Le Pen's National Rally has overtaken centre right Les Republicains as the main party of the right at both presidential and legislative level or Italy where Meloni's populist right Lega Nord has overtaken centre right Forza Italia as the main party of the right on votes and seats (even though the 2 are in Meloni's coalition government) or indeed Canada in 1993 where populist right Reform overtook the centre right Progressive Conservatives on votes and seats (until the 2 eventually merged to form today's Conservative Party of Canada in 1993).
    France is like Britain in 2005/6. They’ve had a pretty good government and president for just short of a decade. Their infrastructure and public services are in good nick. They have caught up with the big boss Germany and are well positioned to overtake it long term. They’ve shaken off the pesky Anglais from the EU. Yet they don’t realise it. They think the country is going to the dogs. And it is, a bit, but less than their neighbours.

    My French neighbours grudgingly accept, when a bit ivré, that macron’s actually pretty good. He’s a Blair, but his relationship with the French people is very Thatcher.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Inevitably a government facing a thrashing is going to try to buy some popularity but the truth is that the underlying finances are not much short of desperate.

    Public debt is floating around 100% of GDP and there is good evidence that anything above that inhibits growth. There are mammoth off book debts in unfunded pension liabilities, the small matter of several hundred billion owed to the BoE, a never ending list of public works needing done, recently aggravated by the RAAC issues, a desperate need for more infrastructure and public services whose productivity post Covid is so awful that they are falling apart.

    But yes, tax cuts. That will do it.

    The best plan for growth is to get down debt as a proportion of GDP.
    Yes. The deal was that Sunak was a boring twat but he and Hunt were grown ups who would make rational decisions in our long term interests. Boy, were we sold a pup.
    It's just useless. Rumour of this tax cut and that tax cut. When many if the tax cuts don't materialise it will annoy far more than those who are happy with the tax cuts that do occur.
    It’s another downside of a client media.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    I think this is a bit late from Jess Phillips:

    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1725914223883035111

    The use of rape as a weapon of war in the attack against Israel must not slip past us with all the horrors coming out of the war. Sexual violence in war zones is not uncommon and women's security is so fragile in peace time that it's the easiest weapon to employ
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,358
    edited November 2023
    No, I am not Andrew Mitchell.

    Cameron’s role elevates Andrew Mitchell, who will take foreign affairs questions in the Commons. When he heard the news that his old boss was returning, Mitchell told colleagues: “I nearly had an orgasm.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-david-cameron-tory-party-general-election-2024-strategy-g6scvl9k2
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to watch this week is that the cost of that public borrowing is going to rise and rise for a long time yet.

    There are several factors that are going to drive this. Firstly, most of the current debt was funded at ridiculously low interest rates over the last decade. As we are still in substantial deficit that debt will need to be rolled over but it will be refinanced at roughly 10x the cost of the current debt. As more and more of the cheap debt reaches maturity the proportion of tax revenues used for debt interest will climb and climb.

    Secondly, a significant proportion of current debt is to the BoE and we don’t pay interest on it. As QE is unwound we will have to pay interest on more of it.

    Thirdly, we are just not a great credit risk.

    Add these together and the idea we have “headroom” for tax cuts is almost morally offensive.

    "Long Term Decisions for a Brighter Future"
    This is how you do it.

    There are more people in the U.S. workforce today than any time in American history. Unemployment has been under 4% for 21 straight months.

    There’s more to do, but inflation has come down by 65%, and we now have the lowest inflation rate of any advanced economy in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1725915542278590656
    In fairness our unemployment rate is only 4.5% and stable. It’s just we have far too many of us not producing enough.
    Everyone in employment or self-employment is posting on PB instead of putting in a shift?
    Some of us can multitask.

    I have been on a date, working in gainful employment, keeping up with the cricket, and writing a PB thread header (in my head) all at the same time.
    Quite so. Some PB-ers seem to think that if you’re posting on PB that’s all you’re doing

    In the last three hours I’ve been posting on PB but also: having a wank (sorry), checking out the crisis at OpenAI, eating a dinner of modern Cambodian cuisine with my new friend chef Jesus Guzman, diving in the sea to look at blue plankton and applying for a visa to Myanmar
    Myanmar is fascinating, albeit a brutal military regime. Really interesting food too, like nothing else.

    I was there working but had time for Bagan, the Shwedegon pagoda and the Hill of Nats. I would recommend all of these.

    It was the only time that I have worked in a hospital with government secret police spies. Or at least I think so...
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    Vanilla enema
  • Options
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to watch this week is that the cost of that public borrowing is going to rise and rise for a long time yet.

    There are several factors that are going to drive this. Firstly, most of the current debt was funded at ridiculously low interest rates over the last decade. As we are still in substantial deficit that debt will need to be rolled over but it will be refinanced at roughly 10x the cost of the current debt. As more and more of the cheap debt reaches maturity the proportion of tax revenues used for debt interest will climb and climb.

    Secondly, a significant proportion of current debt is to the BoE and we don’t pay interest on it. As QE is unwound we will have to pay interest on more of it.

    Thirdly, we are just not a great credit risk.

    Add these together and the idea we have “headroom” for tax cuts is almost morally offensive.

    "Long Term Decisions for a Brighter Future"
    This is how you do it.

    There are more people in the U.S. workforce today than any time in American history. Unemployment has been under 4% for 21 straight months.

    There’s more to do, but inflation has come down by 65%, and we now have the lowest inflation rate of any advanced economy in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1725915542278590656
    In fairness our unemployment rate is only 4.5% and stable. It’s just we have far too many of us not producing enough.
    Everyone in employment or self-employment is posting on PB instead of putting in a shift?
    Some of us can multitask.

    I have been on a date, working in gainful employment, keeping up with the cricket, and writing a PB thread header (in my head) all at the same time.
    Quite so. Some PB-ers seem to think that if you’re posting on PB that’s all you’re doing

    In the last three hours I’ve been posting on PB but also: having a wank (sorry)[...], diving in the sea to look at blue plankton
    So THAT's what caused the Blue Plankton!
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,310
    edited November 2023

    Nigelb said:

    Mail confirms Suella is named after the Dallas character.

    Which is odd, since despite her manifold faults, she is neither a drunk nor an unfit mother.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAtm-gvlbqE
    Wasn't it Sue Ellen?
    Yes, our beloved former Home Secretary and Cambridge-educated lawyer was originally named Sue-Ellen after the Dallas character, and changed it to Suella at school.

    ETA:-
    Suella said: “So my name is actually Sue-Ellen, because my mum was a fan of Dallas and thought this would be a great name for her daughter. I’ve been plagued ever since.

    “But my primary school teachers didn’t like the hyphen. So they came up with Suella on my little tag for my coat and that stuck.”

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/24717852/suella-braverman-parents-home-secretarys-childhood/

    It's a sign of our advancing years that The Sun felt it necessary to explain the set-up of Dallas.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    IHT should be at a much lower rate (about 10%) and without exemptions above the exempt allowance, which shouldn't favour those who happen to be married, have children and own a house (all of which raises the real nil rate band from £325K to £1m).

    But this should not be the moral priority. The massive priority is that people working FT on minimum wage - the very poorest full time workers - are paying thousands in IT/NI. They should be paying virtually nil.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
    Yep, you must be on the first line of the first page.

    I wonder if Estelle Morris weighed her performance up against the last 13 years of incompetence whether she would re-evaluate or at least mitigate her total unsuitability for the role of Ed. Sec.
    The truth is, it doesn't really matter how good, or intelligent, or otherwise you are as SoS for Education.

    The problem is the department itself which for many years had a culture of failure, mediocrity, arrogance and complete ignorance that has been highly damaging.

    And then blame everyone but themselves for it.

    They're the Post Office with a wider remit.
    So you agree with Michael Gove & Dom Cummings?

    :smiley:
    I always agreed with their diagnoses of the problems.

    If only because the problems themselves are very obvious and easy to understand, even for people of the intellectual calibre of Winnie the Pooh (like Cummings).

    The issue was that as ignorant retards their suggested solutions made things worse, and as arrogant fools they wouldn't accept it when this was pointed out,

    They were just as bad as the civil servants themselves.
    Don't diss Winnie the Pooh.

    Plus I was compared to Winnie the Pooh when I applied to work for the SIS.

    Like Winnie, I would have ended up in numerous honey traps.
    You're quite right, and I humbly and sincerely apologise to Winnie the Pooh for comparing him to Dumbinic Cummings.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    Surely the key thing for the Tories is to get over to the public the fact that there IS more headroom. Cutting the rate of inheritance tax strikes me as quite ludicrous. I could just about understand raising the threshold but cutting the rate? That's just a massive break to very wealthy people on the whole. Are they unhappy that too many rich people aren't voting for them?
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,310
    edited November 2023
    algarkirk said:

    IHT should be at a much lower rate (about 10%) and without exemptions above the exempt allowance, which shouldn't favour those who happen to be married, have children and own a house (all of which raises the real nil rate band from £325K to £1m).

    But this should not be the moral priority. The massive priority is that people working FT on minimum wage - the very poorest full time workers - are paying thousands in IT/NI. They should be paying virtually nil.

    The other problem for the government's dubious morality is funding this or any tax cut by removing free prescriptions from unemployed UC claimants who don't engage with its latest scheme.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800
    edited November 2023
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Countries i have been to these last two years:


    Ukraine: fucked (war)
    America: fucked (drugs, politics, guns)
    Turkey: fucked (inflation)
    Armenia: fucked (war, poverty)
    Georgia: fucked (Russia, poverty)
    Spain: fucked (debt, migration)
    Portugal: fucked (migration, poverty)
    Cambodia: fucked (Covid, corruption)
    Greece: quite fucked (poverty, but more varied salads, tourism helping)
    Thailand: fucked (Covid, corruption)
    Poland: doing OK. Food improving (but Russia!)
    Egypt: fucked (over population, eco-crash)
    France: quite fucked (migration, politics)
    Iceland: doing OK, nice soups
    Germany: fucked (economy hollowing, migration)
    Montenegro: quite fucked (corruption)
    Romania: OMG fucked (poverty, demography)
    Italy: fucked (demography, migration)
    Sri Lanka: totally fucked (everything)
    Maldives: nice, but rainy

    I’d say Georgia: doing ok because of Russian draft dodgers with money, but precarious.

    France: not as fucked as people assume. About as fucked as the UK or a little less. Somewhat less fucked than Germany or Italy.

    America: doesn’t know how lucky it is. Needs to actually spend some of its wealth on destitution and social issues.

    I agree on Poland. But where’s really doing well? Where has 1. Good demographics, 2. Social stability, 3. Growing economy, 4. Ethnic concord?

    Only one place. Singapore. Which is boring as hell.
    The US is the real mystery to me. A great economy, fabulously wealthy, immensely powerful, yet with life expectancy down to 73, and large parts of it that look like Jaywick or the most rundown bits of Sicily.

    A US friend tells me it makes sense if you view USA as the modern version of the Roman Empire. The penalties for failing in life are deliberately dire. The USA is powerful, precisely because it is harsh.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    tlg86 said:

    I think this is a bit late from Jess Phillips:

    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1725914223883035111

    The use of rape as a weapon of war in the attack against Israel must not slip past us with all the horrors coming out of the war. Sexual violence in war zones is not uncommon and women's security is so fragile in peace time that it's the easiest weapon to employ

    Say and and keep saying it Jess. It is never to late. And there are people who want to slip past the whole 7th October thing anyway.

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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952

    Mail confirms Suella is named after the Dallas character.

    I thought that was a well known fact?
    At least, I'm aware of her having mentioned it a long time ago.
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