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Mo money, mo problems? – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to watch this week is that the cost of that public borrowing is going to rise and rise for a long time yet.

    There are several factors that are going to drive this. Firstly, most of the current debt was funded at ridiculously low interest rates over the last decade. As we are still in substantial deficit that debt will need to be rolled over but it will be refinanced at roughly 10x the cost of the current debt. As more and more of the cheap debt reaches maturity the proportion of tax revenues used for debt interest will climb and climb.

    Secondly, a significant proportion of current debt is to the BoE and we don’t pay interest on it. As QE is unwound we will have to pay interest on more of it.

    Thirdly, we are just not a great credit risk.

    Add these together and the idea we have “headroom” for tax cuts is almost morally offensive.

    "Long Term Decisions for a Brighter Future"
    This is how you do it.

    There are more people in the U.S. workforce today than any time in American history. Unemployment has been under 4% for 21 straight months.

    There’s more to do, but inflation has come down by 65%, and we now have the lowest inflation rate of any advanced economy in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1725915542278590656
    Weirdly, Uncle Joe isn’t boasting that

    America now has by far the lowest life expectancy of any advanced economy in the world! Under the Democrats, more Americans are dying of drug overdoses than ever before! With Joe at the helm, infant mortality is worsening to Global South levels!
    This his recent agreement with Xi to restrict the supply of fentanyl precursors into the US.

    It's an intractable problem - but Trump's big idea is to invade Mexico. I think Biden gets the nod there, too.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    edited November 2023

    algarkirk said:

    IHT should be at a much lower rate (about 10%) and without exemptions above the exempt allowance, which shouldn't favour those who happen to be married, have children and own a house (all of which raises the real nil rate band from £325K to £1m).

    But this should not be the moral priority. The massive priority is that people working FT on minimum wage - the very poorest full time workers - are paying thousands in IT/NI. They should be paying virtually nil.

    The other problem for the government's dubious morality is funding this or any tax cut by removing free prescriptions from unemployed UC claimants who don't engage with its latest scheme.
    This new plan to restrict UC claimants who refuse jobs looks like a red herring to me. UC claimants already get sanctioned if they refuse a job interview (or are 2 minutes late for a Job Centre appointment through no fault of their own), so I don't understand how this latest scheme changes anything?
  • Nigelb said:

    Mail confirms Suella is named after the Dallas character.

    Which is odd, since despite her manifold faults, she is neither a drunk nor an unfit mother.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAtm-gvlbqE
    Wasn't it Sue Ellen?
    Yes, our beloved former Home Secretary and Cambridge-educated lawyer was originally named Sue-Ellen after the Dallas character, and changed it to Suella at school.

    ETA:-
    Suella said: “So my name is actually Sue-Ellen, because my mum was a fan of Dallas and thought this would be a great name for her daughter. I’ve been plagued ever since.

    “But my primary school teachers didn’t like the hyphen. So they came up with Suella on my little tag for my coat and that stuck.”

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/24717852/suella-braverman-parents-home-secretarys-childhood/

    It's a sign of our advancing years that The Sun felt it necessary to explain the set-up of Dallas.
    The bit about the hyphen (ignoring cultural insensitivity) harks back to our earlier discussion of badly-programmed computers that can't cope with punctuation.
  • Paging @Leon

    Another poll since Dave came back and the Labour lead is slashed. I make that the occurrence in the majority of the polls.

    Labour’s lead is down to 13 points.

    Labour 40% (-3)
    Conservatives 27% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (+1)
    SNP 3% (n/c)
    Greens 6% (+1)
    Reform 9% (n/c)

    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1725967141910856083?s=46
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    Paging @Leon

    Another poll since Dave came back and the Labour lead is slashed. I make that the occurrence in the majority of the polls.

    Labour’s lead is down to 13 points.

    Labour 40% (-3)
    Conservatives 27% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (+1)
    SNP 3% (n/c)
    Greens 6% (+1)
    Reform 9% (n/c)

    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1725967141910856083?s=46

    Oh shit. But then this is opinium with swingback.
  • TimS said:

    Paging @Leon

    Another poll since Dave came back and the Labour lead is slashed. I make that the occurrence in the majority of the polls.

    Labour’s lead is down to 13 points.

    Labour 40% (-3)
    Conservatives 27% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (+1)
    SNP 3% (n/c)
    Greens 6% (+1)
    Reform 9% (n/c)

    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1725967141910856083?s=46

    Oh shit. But then this is opinium with swingback.
    Give it time. Dave has been only back five days.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Isn't this just a fraction irresponsible ?

    F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix: 'If I was a fan, I would tear the place down,' says Max Verstappen
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/67461305
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    TimS said:

    Paging @Leon

    Another poll since Dave came back and the Labour lead is slashed. I make that the occurrence in the majority of the polls.

    Labour’s lead is down to 13 points.

    Labour 40% (-3)
    Conservatives 27% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (+1)
    SNP 3% (n/c)
    Greens 6% (+1)
    Reform 9% (n/c)

    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1725967141910856083?s=46

    Oh shit. But then this is opinium with swingback.
    Give it time. Dave has been only back five days.
    15-17 Nov, so 2/3 after the shit started being fanned.

    But we should wait a good fortnight / quinzaine before judging this reshuffle. Too early.
  • TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Paging @Leon

    Another poll since Dave came back and the Labour lead is slashed. I make that the occurrence in the majority of the polls.

    Labour’s lead is down to 13 points.

    Labour 40% (-3)
    Conservatives 27% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (+1)
    SNP 3% (n/c)
    Greens 6% (+1)
    Reform 9% (n/c)

    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1725967141910856083?s=46

    Oh shit. But then this is opinium with swingback.
    Give it time. Dave has been only back five days.
    15-17 Nov, so 2/3 after the shit started being fanned.

    But we should wait a good fortnight / quinzaine before judging this reshuffle. Too early.
    Indeed, I’m just winding up always wrong Leon.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Yes, it’s rubbish

    Presumably they are panicking after the polling following the World’s Greatest Reshuffle

    The Tories are staring at either disaster or oblivion. Disaster is therefore the better outcome. It really is that bad

    The majority of polls has seen the Labour lead slashed.

    Edit it is 50% of polls. Which is a majority if you round up.
    Impressive spin, cuz, but if you look at the entirety of the polls, Labour are still way way over the necessary support needed for a massive majority under FPTP. Whereas the Tories, since the World’s Greatest Reshuffle, have gone from 25-30% - indicating a bad defeat but not total extinction - to 20-25% - which does equal Canadian style oblivion

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Virtually every Tory MP should be bricking it. Extinction awaits, as things stand. And we are now likely less than a year from the GE with absolutely no sign of swing back, indeed it gets worse
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Yes, it’s rubbish

    Presumably they are panicking after the polling following the World’s Greatest Reshuffle

    The Tories are staring at either disaster or oblivion. Disaster is therefore the better outcome. It really is that bad

    The majority of polls has seen the Labour lead slashed.

    Edit it is 50% of polls. Which is a majority if you round up.
    Impressive spin, cuz, but if you look at the entirety of the polls, Labour are still way way over the necessary support needed for a massive majority under FPTP. Whereas the Tories, since the World’s Greatest Reshuffle, have gone from 25-30% - indicating a bad defeat but not total extinction - to 20-25% - which does equal Canadian style oblivion

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Virtually every Tory MP should be bricking it. Extinction awaits, as things stand. And we are now likely less than a year from the GE with absolutely no sign of swing back, indeed it gets worse
    A lot of Tory MPs simply don't care that much. They are resigned to receiving a shellacking at the next election and preparing for the rest of their lives. This makes Sunak's position stronger, because so many Tory MPs believe their position is hopeless, so there's nothing to be gained by replacing the party leader.

    Although the Braverman/Cameron drama stole the headlines the most notable feature of the recent reshuffle was the number of ministers simply walking away, as they prepare for life after Parliament.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723

    Paging @Leon

    Another poll since Dave came back and the Labour lead is slashed. I make that the occurrence in the majority of the polls.

    Labour’s lead is down to 13 points.

    Labour 40% (-3)
    Conservatives 27% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (+1)
    SNP 3% (n/c)
    Greens 6% (+1)
    Reform 9% (n/c)

    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1725967141910856083?s=46

    Call me Dave effect...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    @jamesjohnson252
    NEW
    @JLPartnersPolls
    Cabinet Tracker in The Sunday Times

    🔵 Rishi Sunak down 9 points since July, now second most-unpopular in Cabinet with the public
    🔵 Cameron debuts on -35
    🔵 Tom Tugendhat now top
    🔵 Cleverly up 6 points
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
    Yep, you must be on the first line of the first page.

    I wonder if Estelle Morris weighed her performance up against the last 13 years of incompetence whether she would re-evaluate or at least mitigate her total unsuitability for the role of Ed. Sec.
    The truth is, it doesn't really matter how good, or intelligent, or otherwise you are as SoS for Education.

    The problem is the department itself which for many years had a culture of failure, mediocrity, arrogance and complete ignorance that has been highly damaging.

    And then blame everyone but themselves for it.

    They're the Post Office with a wider remit.
    So you agree with Michael Gove & Dom Cummings?

    :smiley:
    I always agreed with their diagnoses of the problems.

    If only because the problems themselves are very obvious and easy to understand, even for people of the intellectual calibre of Winnie the Pooh (like Cummings).

    The issue was that as ignorant retards their suggested solutions made things worse, and as arrogant fools they wouldn't accept it when this was pointed out,

    They were just as bad as the civil servants themselves.
    Don't diss Winnie the Pooh.

    Plus I was compared to Winnie the Pooh when I applied to work for the SIS.

    Like Winnie, I would have ended up in numerous honey traps.
    Surely the way to go was the politician, who when the KGB tried to blackmail with a film of a honey trap, asked them for copies of the film, which he said he wanted to broadcast to prove his er… prowess.
  • Sean_F said:

    Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are weighing up last-minute cuts to income tax or national insurance to boost economic growth and the Conservative Party’s electoral fortunes.

    The prime minister and chancellor have taken the surprise decision to consider tax cuts for low and middle earners before the autumn statement on Wednesday, having been handed billions of pounds of additional spending power.

    While the move would fuel inflation, Hunt and Sunak could attempt to offset the impact by squeezing welfare payments and making cuts elsewhere.

    They are also considering delaying until the spring budget a widely expected reduction in inheritance tax, after accusations that halving the 40 per cent rate would constitute a handout to the rich during a cost-of-living crisis.

    The chancellor had been expected to wait until spring to introduce income tax cuts, but improved public finances and worse-than-expected growth forecasts have encouraged him to reconsider amid fears it might not be possible if he waits until next year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-considers-cuts-to-income-tax-and-national-insurance-vdtsp6prl

    That would be a sensible move.
    It sounds to me like they've had second thoughts at the 11th hour, probably wisely.
  • Paging @Leon

    Another poll since Dave came back and the Labour lead is slashed. I make that the occurrence in the majority of the polls.

    Labour’s lead is down to 13 points.

    Labour 40% (-3)
    Conservatives 27% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (+1)
    SNP 3% (n/c)
    Greens 6% (+1)
    Reform 9% (n/c)

    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1725967141910856083?s=46

    Must be an outlier, Tory Boy :lol:
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779
    algarkirk said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think this is a bit late from Jess Phillips:

    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1725914223883035111

    The use of rape as a weapon of war in the attack against Israel must not slip past us with all the horrors coming out of the war. Sexual violence in war zones is not uncommon and women's security is so fragile in peace time that it's the easiest weapon to employ

    Say and and keep saying it Jess. It is never to late. And there are people who want to slip past the whole 7th October thing anyway.

    What is this '7th of October' thing you speak of? I went to a demo on the 6th and waved a flag, and on the 8th I went to a demo and waved a flag. 7th clearly doesn't exist.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
    Yep, you must be on the first line of the first page.

    I wonder if Estelle Morris weighed her performance up against the last 13 years of incompetence whether she would re-evaluate or at least mitigate her total unsuitability for the role of Ed. Sec.
    The truth is, it doesn't really matter how good, or intelligent, or otherwise you are as SoS for Education.

    The problem is the department itself which for many years had a culture of failure, mediocrity, arrogance and complete ignorance that has been highly damaging.

    And then blame everyone but themselves for it.

    They're the Post Office with a wider remit.
    So you agree with Michael Gove & Dom Cummings?

    :smiley:
    I always agreed with their diagnoses of the problems.

    If only because the problems themselves are very obvious and easy to understand, even for people of the intellectual calibre of Winnie the Pooh (like Cummings).

    The issue was that as ignorant retards their suggested solutions made things worse, and as arrogant fools they wouldn't accept it when this was pointed out,

    They were just as bad as the civil servants themselves.
    Don't diss Winnie the Pooh.

    Plus I was compared to Winnie the Pooh when I applied to work for the SIS.

    Like Winnie, I would have ended up in numerous honey traps.
    Surely the way to go was the politician, who when the KGB tried to blackmail with a film of a honey trap, asked them for copies of the film, which he said he wanted to broadcast to prove his er… prowess.
    I refer the honourable gentleman to the final paragraph I wrote in 2016 about Dave holding the referendum.

    What of David Cameron? With this referendum he must be feeling like the couple who agreed to make home made porn. It sounded like a good idea at the time, he thought it would be fun to do, but now as he sits back and views his production, he must be thinking this hasn’t turned out how he expected it to turn out, whilst regretting his initial decision and feeling a bit nauseous about it all.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to watch this week is that the cost of that public borrowing is going to rise and rise for a long time yet.

    There are several factors that are going to drive this. Firstly, most of the current debt was funded at ridiculously low interest rates over the last decade. As we are still in substantial deficit that debt will need to be rolled over but it will be refinanced at roughly 10x the cost of the current debt. As more and more of the cheap debt reaches maturity the proportion of tax revenues used for debt interest will climb and climb.

    Secondly, a significant proportion of current debt is to the BoE and we don’t pay interest on it. As QE is unwound we will have to pay interest on more of it.

    Thirdly, we are just not a great credit risk.

    Add these together and the idea we have “headroom” for tax cuts is almost morally offensive.

    "Long Term Decisions for a Brighter Future"
    This is how you do it.

    There are more people in the U.S. workforce today than any time in American history. Unemployment has been under 4% for 21 straight months.

    There’s more to do, but inflation has come down by 65%, and we now have the lowest inflation rate of any advanced economy in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1725915542278590656
    In fairness our unemployment rate is only 4.5% and stable. It’s just we have far too many of us not producing enough.
    Everyone in employment or self-employment is posting on PB instead of putting in a shift?
    Some of us can multitask.

    I have been on a date, working in gainful employment, keeping up with the cricket, and writing a PB thread header (in my head) all at the same time.
    Quite so. Some PB-ers seem to think that if you’re posting on PB that’s all you’re doing

    In the last three hours I’ve been posting on PB but also: having a wank (sorry)[...], diving in the sea to look at blue plankton
    So THAT's what caused the Blue Plankton!
    DO NOT ask him about Soylent Green.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    Scott_xP said:

    @jamesjohnson252
    NEW
    @JLPartnersPolls
    Cabinet Tracker in The Sunday Times

    🔵 Rishi Sunak down 9 points since July, now second most-unpopular in Cabinet with the public
    🔵 Cameron debuts on -35
    🔵 Tom Tugendhat now top
    🔵 Cleverly up 6 points

    Who are JL partners? I have never heard of them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    Scott_xP said:

    @jamesjohnson252
    NEW
    @JLPartnersPolls
    Cabinet Tracker in The Sunday Times

    🔵 Rishi Sunak down 9 points since July, now second most-unpopular in Cabinet with the public
    🔵 Cameron debuts on -35
    🔵 Tom Tugendhat now top
    🔵 Cleverly up 6 points

    Who are JL partners? I have never heard of them.
    People who don't realise Tugendhat isn't a member of the cabinet...
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779

    Blanche’s Baked Beans

    This is the list of ingredients I used the other night, and how I cooked them, but I don’t have a fixed recipe

    75g diced smoked pancetta (lardons or chopped up streaky bacon rashers work fine)
    2 finely sliced cloves garlic
    1 finely chopped small red onion
    1 tin of haricot beans (I’d usually use more beans with this amount of sauce, but I’d usually soak dried beans which my Waitrose doesn’t sell)
    200g soffritto (I bought a pack from Waitrose, but it’s a really good thing to make a big batch of and freeze in portions so you can use have it ready for stuff like this)
    1 tin chopped tomatoes (I used Mutti. Don’t skimp on tinned tomatoes, buy the best)
    About 50ml red wine vinegar
    A heaped teaspoon of muscovado sugar
    Loads of freshly ground black pepper (I apply it liberally at various stages of cooking)

    Gently fry and stir the pancetta until it’s released enough fat to cook the garlic and onions, then add them. Turn up heat to medium and fry until onions are softened. Stir the drained beans in and stir fry for a minute. Add soffritto, vinegar and sugar; keep stirring until it starts to boil then add tomatoes. Bring back almost to boil then transfer to preheated oven dish and oven at 170C, covered for thirty minutes, then uncovered for fifteen. Eat and hate tinned “baked” beans forever

    You might enjoy this recipe :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pj7dEr6rZ7Q

    "Drunken Baked Beans (Frijoles Borrachos)"
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
    Yep, you must be on the first line of the first page.

    I wonder if Estelle Morris weighed her performance up against the last 13 years of incompetence whether she would re-evaluate or at least mitigate her total unsuitability for the role of Ed. Sec.
    The truth is, it doesn't really matter how good, or intelligent, or otherwise you are as SoS for Education.

    The problem is the department itself which for many years had a culture of failure, mediocrity, arrogance and complete ignorance that has been highly damaging.

    And then blame everyone but themselves for it.

    They're the Post Office with a wider remit.
    So you agree with Michael Gove & Dom Cummings?

    :smiley:
    I always agreed with their diagnoses of the problems.

    If only because the problems themselves are very obvious and easy to understand, even for people of the intellectual calibre of Winnie the Pooh (like Cummings).

    The issue was that as ignorant retards their suggested solutions made things worse, and as arrogant fools they wouldn't accept it when this was pointed out,

    They were just as bad as the civil servants themselves.
    Don't diss Winnie the Pooh.

    Plus I was compared to Winnie the Pooh when I applied to work for the SIS.

    Like Winnie, I would have ended up in numerous honey traps.
    Surely the way to go was the politician, who when the KGB tried to blackmail with a film of a honey trap, asked them for copies of the film, which he said he wanted to broadcast to prove his er… prowess.
    I refer the honourable gentleman to the final paragraph I wrote in 2016 about Dave holding the referendum.

    What of David Cameron? With this referendum he must be feeling like the couple who agreed to make home made porn. It sounded like a good idea at the time, he thought it would be fun to do, but now as he sits back and views his production, he must be thinking this hasn’t turned out how he expected it to turn out, whilst regretting his initial decision and feeling a bit nauseous about it all.
    At least he managed to come second.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Paging @Leon

    Another poll since Dave came back and the Labour lead is slashed. I make that the occurrence in the majority of the polls.

    Labour’s lead is down to 13 points.

    Labour 40% (-3)
    Conservatives 27% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (+1)
    SNP 3% (n/c)
    Greens 6% (+1)
    Reform 9% (n/c)

    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1725967141910856083?s=46

    Oh shit. But then this is opinium with swingback.
    Give it time. Dave has been only back five days.
    15-17 Nov, so 2/3 after the shit started being fanned.

    But we should wait a good fortnight / quinzaine before judging this reshuffle. Too early.
    Indeed, I’m just winding up always wrong Leon.
    Schrodingers @Leon, always right and always wrong as he predicts both sides and only decides after the box is open.
  • Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    DavidL said:

    The other thing to watch this week is that the cost of that public borrowing is going to rise and rise for a long time yet.

    There are several factors that are going to drive this. Firstly, most of the current debt was funded at ridiculously low interest rates over the last decade. As we are still in substantial deficit that debt will need to be rolled over but it will be refinanced at roughly 10x the cost of the current debt. As more and more of the cheap debt reaches maturity the proportion of tax revenues used for debt interest will climb and climb.

    Secondly, a significant proportion of current debt is to the BoE and we don’t pay interest on it. As QE is unwound we will have to pay interest on more of it.

    Thirdly, we are just not a great credit risk.

    Add these together and the idea we have “headroom” for tax cuts is almost morally offensive.

    "Long Term Decisions for a Brighter Future"
    This is how you do it.

    There are more people in the U.S. workforce today than any time in American history. Unemployment has been under 4% for 21 straight months.

    There’s more to do, but inflation has come down by 65%, and we now have the lowest inflation rate of any advanced economy in the world.

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1725915542278590656
    In fairness our unemployment rate is only 4.5% and stable. It’s just we have far too many of us not producing enough.
    Everyone in employment or self-employment is posting on PB instead of putting in a shift?
    Some of us can multitask.

    I have been on a date, working in gainful employment, keeping up with the cricket, and writing a PB thread header (in my head) all at the same time.
    Quite so. Some PB-ers seem to think that if you’re posting on PB that’s all you’re doing

    In the last three hours I’ve been posting on PB but also: having a wank (sorry), checking out the crisis at OpenAI, eating a dinner of modern Cambodian cuisine with my new friend chef Jesus Guzman, diving in the sea to look at blue plankton and applying for a visa to Myanmar
    I’ve even heard it rumoured that some people have managed to post on PB under 2 separate IDs at the same time.
  • Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Paging @Leon

    Another poll since Dave came back and the Labour lead is slashed. I make that the occurrence in the majority of the polls.

    Labour’s lead is down to 13 points.

    Labour 40% (-3)
    Conservatives 27% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (+1)
    SNP 3% (n/c)
    Greens 6% (+1)
    Reform 9% (n/c)

    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1725967141910856083?s=46

    Oh shit. But then this is opinium with swingback.
    Give it time. Dave has been only back five days.
    15-17 Nov, so 2/3 after the shit started being fanned.

    But we should wait a good fortnight / quinzaine before judging this reshuffle. Too early.
    Indeed, I’m just winding up always wrong Leon.
    Schrodingers @Leon, always right and always wrong as he predicts both sides and only decides after the box is open.
    catty remark
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...

    Paging @Leon

    Another poll since Dave came back and the Labour lead is slashed. I make that the occurrence in the majority of the polls.

    Labour’s lead is down to 13 points.

    Labour 40% (-3)
    Conservatives 27% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (+1)
    SNP 3% (n/c)
    Greens 6% (+1)
    Reform 9% (n/c)

    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1725967141910856083?s=46

    That is a stonking poll for Team Rishi. The more I dislike his desperation, the more he smashes it out of the park!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    ...

    Paging @Leon

    Another poll since Dave came back and the Labour lead is slashed. I make that the occurrence in the majority of the polls.

    Labour’s lead is down to 13 points.

    Labour 40% (-3)
    Conservatives 27% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (+1)
    SNP 3% (n/c)
    Greens 6% (+1)
    Reform 9% (n/c)

    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1725967141910856083?s=46

    That is a stonking poll for Team Rishi. The more I dislike his desperation, the more he smashes it out of the park!
    It might not just be the Dave effect, but also the Jess Phillips effect.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    ...and 32% in 2019.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
    Yep, you must be on the first line of the first page.

    I wonder if Estelle Morris weighed her performance up against the last 13 years of incompetence whether she would re-evaluate or at least mitigate her total unsuitability for the role of Ed. Sec.
    The truth is, it doesn't really matter how good, or intelligent, or otherwise you are as SoS for Education.

    The problem is the department itself which for many years had a culture of failure, mediocrity, arrogance and complete ignorance that has been highly damaging.

    And then blame everyone but themselves for it.

    They're the Post Office with a wider remit.
    So you agree with Michael Gove & Dom Cummings?

    :smiley:
    I always agreed with their diagnoses of the problems.

    If only because the problems themselves are very obvious and easy to understand, even for people of the intellectual calibre of Winnie the Pooh (like Cummings).

    The issue was that as ignorant retards their suggested solutions made things worse, and as arrogant fools they wouldn't accept it when this was pointed out,

    They were just as bad as the civil servants themselves.
    Don't diss Winnie the Pooh.

    Plus I was compared to Winnie the Pooh when I applied to work for the SIS.

    Like Winnie, I would have ended up in numerous honey traps.
    Surely the way to go was the politician, who when the KGB tried to blackmail with a film of a honey trap, asked them for copies of the film, which he said he wanted to broadcast to prove his er… prowess.
    I refer the honourable gentleman to the final paragraph I wrote in 2016 about Dave holding the referendum.

    What of David Cameron? With this referendum he must be feeling like the couple who agreed to make home made porn. It sounded like a good idea at the time, he thought it would be fun to do, but now as he sits back and views his production, he must be thinking this hasn’t turned out how he expected it to turn out, whilst regretting his initial decision and feeling a bit nauseous about it all.
    Shouldn’t that be “nauseated” rather than “nauseous”?

    That is how bored I am.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    SKS Genocide Party at 40% is on 2nd lowest VI in 2023

    One poll had them at 39% in August
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    It might not help that there are a bunch of deranged Corbynistas around still attacking him all the time.

    Although to be fair, most of them come across as so crazy and unpleasant that it might well be that they encourage people to vote for Starmer.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    ...

    Paging @Leon

    Another poll since Dave came back and the Labour lead is slashed. I make that the occurrence in the majority of the polls.

    Labour’s lead is down to 13 points.

    Labour 40% (-3)
    Conservatives 27% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (+1)
    SNP 3% (n/c)
    Greens 6% (+1)
    Reform 9% (n/c)

    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1725967141910856083?s=46

    That is a stonking poll for Team Rishi. The more I dislike his desperation, the more he smashes it out of the park!
    The disparity between this and the other polls must be more Tory voters moving to DK, with Opinium crediting them as returners and the other polls not.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited November 2023

    SKS Genocide Party at 40% is on 2nd lowest VI in 2023

    One poll had them at 39% in August

    So even at their lowest, they're equal to the best vote share Corbyn ever managed?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826

    SKS Genocide Party at 40% is on 2nd lowest VI in 2023

    One poll had them at 39% in August

    Are there any serious bodies that have accused Israel of committing genocide? Not that I can see.

    Throwing words like genocide around in such a loose fashion risks devaluing the term.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Starmer approval down to -10.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,138
    edited November 2023
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
    Yep, you must be on the first line of the first page.

    I wonder if Estelle Morris weighed her performance up against the last 13 years of incompetence whether she would re-evaluate or at least mitigate her total unsuitability for the role of Ed. Sec.
    The truth is, it doesn't really matter how good, or intelligent, or otherwise you are as SoS for Education.

    The problem is the department itself which for many years had a culture of failure, mediocrity, arrogance and complete ignorance that has been highly damaging.

    And then blame everyone but themselves for it.

    They're the Post Office with a wider remit.
    So you agree with Michael Gove & Dom Cummings?

    :smiley:
    I always agreed with their diagnoses of the problems.

    If only because the problems themselves are very obvious and easy to understand, even for people of the intellectual calibre of Winnie the Pooh (like Cummings).

    The issue was that as ignorant retards their suggested solutions made things worse, and as arrogant fools they wouldn't accept it when this was pointed out,

    They were just as bad as the civil servants themselves.
    Don't diss Winnie the Pooh.

    Plus I was compared to Winnie the Pooh when I applied to work for the SIS.

    Like Winnie, I would have ended up in numerous honey traps.
    You're quite right, and I humbly and sincerely apologise to Winnie the Pooh for comparing him to Dumbinic Cummings.
    Do we have anyone here civilised enough to have read Winnie the Pooh in the Latin?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winnie_ille_Pu

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    ...and 32% in 2019.
    I forecast SKS Genocide Party beats the 32% but falls short of the highest Labour score this Millenium 40% in 2017
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    SKS Genocide Party at 40% is on 2nd lowest VI in 2023

    One poll had them at 39% in August

    I think you are correct to point out Starmer has had a shocking war, whereas Rishi has been sublime.

    However your boy has soiled himself to a significantly greater extent than even Starmer.
  • https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    How much did Corbyn get in 2019?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    How much did Corbyn get in 2019?
    Brexit Election.

    2017 40% is highest Labour % this Millenium
  • ohnotnow said:

    Blanche’s Baked Beans

    This is the list of ingredients I used the other night, and how I cooked them, but I don’t have a fixed recipe

    75g diced smoked pancetta (lardons or chopped up streaky bacon rashers work fine)
    2 finely sliced cloves garlic
    1 finely chopped small red onion
    1 tin of haricot beans (I’d usually use more beans with this amount of sauce, but I’d usually soak dried beans which my Waitrose doesn’t sell)
    200g soffritto (I bought a pack from Waitrose, but it’s a really good thing to make a big batch of and freeze in portions so you can use have it ready for stuff like this)
    1 tin chopped tomatoes (I used Mutti. Don’t skimp on tinned tomatoes, buy the best)
    About 50ml red wine vinegar
    A heaped teaspoon of muscovado sugar
    Loads of freshly ground black pepper (I apply it liberally at various stages of cooking)

    Gently fry and stir the pancetta until it’s released enough fat to cook the garlic and onions, then add them. Turn up heat to medium and fry until onions are softened. Stir the drained beans in and stir fry for a minute. Add soffritto, vinegar and sugar; keep stirring until it starts to boil then add tomatoes. Bring back almost to boil then transfer to preheated oven dish and oven at 170C, covered for thirty minutes, then uncovered for fifteen. Eat and hate tinned “baked” beans forever

    You might enjoy this recipe :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pj7dEr6rZ7Q

    "Drunken Baked Beans (Frijoles Borrachos)"
    Can't beat a bit of Beans-on-Naan :lol:
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    ...and 32% in 2019.
    I forecast SKS Genocide Party beats the 32% but falls short of the highest Labour score this Millenium 40% in 2017
    You are batting for a Labour defeat.

    Presumably you are quite comfortable with the Tories squeezing the church-mouse poor and rewarding the super wealthy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited November 2023

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    How much did Corbyn get in 2019?
    Brexit Election.

    2017 40% is highest Labour % this Millenium
    That is a simple lie. Blair got a higher share in 2001.

    Edit - and incidentally Corbyn didn't get 40%, it was 39.9%.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708
    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
    Yep, you must be on the first line of the first page.

    I wonder if Estelle Morris weighed her performance up against the last 13 years of incompetence whether she would re-evaluate or at least mitigate her total unsuitability for the role of Ed. Sec.
    The truth is, it doesn't really matter how good, or intelligent, or otherwise you are as SoS for Education.

    The problem is the department itself which for many years had a culture of failure, mediocrity, arrogance and complete ignorance that has been highly damaging.

    And then blame everyone but themselves for it.

    They're the Post Office with a wider remit.
    So you agree with Michael Gove & Dom Cummings?

    :smiley:
    I always agreed with their diagnoses of the problems.

    If only because the problems themselves are very obvious and easy to understand, even for people of the intellectual calibre of Winnie the Pooh (like Cummings).

    The issue was that as ignorant retards their suggested solutions made things worse, and as arrogant fools they wouldn't accept it when this was pointed out,

    They were just as bad as the civil servants themselves.
    Don't diss Winnie the Pooh.

    Plus I was compared to Winnie the Pooh when I applied to work for the SIS.

    Like Winnie, I would have ended up in numerous honey traps.
    You're quite right, and I humbly and sincerely apologise to Winnie the Pooh for comparing him to Dumbinic Cummings.
    Do we have anyone here civilised enough to have read Winnie the Pooh in the Latin?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winnie_ille_Pu

    Taci taci nemo curat, Xopherus Robinus decedit scalam


  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    How much did Corbyn get in 2019?
    Brexit Election.

    2017 40% is highest Labour % this Millenium
    You can't pick and choose your elections. They all count. Hence we are lumbered with your Tory lot.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    ohnotnow said:

    Blanche’s Baked Beans

    This is the list of ingredients I used the other night, and how I cooked them, but I don’t have a fixed recipe

    75g diced smoked pancetta (lardons or chopped up streaky bacon rashers work fine)
    2 finely sliced cloves garlic
    1 finely chopped small red onion
    1 tin of haricot beans (I’d usually use more beans with this amount of sauce, but I’d usually soak dried beans which my Waitrose doesn’t sell)
    200g soffritto (I bought a pack from Waitrose, but it’s a really good thing to make a big batch of and freeze in portions so you can use have it ready for stuff like this)
    1 tin chopped tomatoes (I used Mutti. Don’t skimp on tinned tomatoes, buy the best)
    About 50ml red wine vinegar
    A heaped teaspoon of muscovado sugar
    Loads of freshly ground black pepper (I apply it liberally at various stages of cooking)

    Gently fry and stir the pancetta until it’s released enough fat to cook the garlic and onions, then add them. Turn up heat to medium and fry until onions are softened. Stir the drained beans in and stir fry for a minute. Add soffritto, vinegar and sugar; keep stirring until it starts to boil then add tomatoes. Bring back almost to boil then transfer to preheated oven dish and oven at 170C, covered for thirty minutes, then uncovered for fifteen. Eat and hate tinned “baked” beans forever

    You might enjoy this recipe :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pj7dEr6rZ7Q

    "Drunken Baked Beans (Frijoles Borrachos)"
    Can't beat a bit of Beans-on-Naan :lol:
    I made Georgian Lobio this evening and would recommend it. Kidney beans with parsley, fenugreek, onions and a few other bits and bobs, cooked to within an inch of their life.

    And Shkmeruli: chicken cooked with cream, cheese and huge amounts of garlic, wonderful.

    And some homemade khachapuri which sort of worked but was too crispy on the outside.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    SKS Genocide Party at 40% is on 2nd lowest VI in 2023

    One poll had them at 39% in August

    I think you are correct to point out Starmer has had a shocking war, whereas Rishi has been sublime.

    However your boy has soiled himself to a significantly greater extent than even Starmer.
    My Boy will be judged to be on the right side of history (as usual)

    Your boy refusing to call out slaughter of women and children not so much

  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    ...and 32% in 2019.
    I forecast SKS Genocide Party beats the 32% but falls short of the highest Labour score this Millenium 40% in 2017
    You are batting for a Labour defeat.

    Presumably you are quite comfortable with the Tories squeezing the church-mouse poor and rewarding the super wealthy.
    Of course he is. It allows him to keep feeling better than everyone else.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    SKS Genocide Party at 40% is on 2nd lowest VI in 2023

    One poll had them at 39% in August

    I think you are correct to point out Starmer has had a shocking war, whereas Rishi has been sublime.

    However your boy has soiled himself to a significantly greater extent than even Starmer.
    Corbyn's Hiroo Onadas really are rancid as well as daft.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    SKS Genocide Party at 40% is on 2nd lowest VI in 2023

    One poll had them at 39% in August

    I think you are correct to point out Starmer has had a shocking war, whereas Rishi has been sublime.

    However your boy has soiled himself to a significantly greater extent than even Starmer.
    My Boy will be judged to be on the right side of history (as usual)

    Your boy refusing to call out slaughter of women and children not so much

    Corbyn is not my boy. A man who until today failed to condemn Hamas for their bloodlust on October 7.
  • ‘Shocking’ scale of UK government’s secret files on critics revealed
    Dossiers were compiled by 15 departments after scouring social media activity to vet people invited to speak at official events

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/18/shocking-scale-of-uk-governments-secret-files-on-critics-revealed
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    ‘Shocking’ scale of UK government’s secret files on critics revealed
    Dossiers were compiled by 15 departments after scouring social media activity to vet people invited to speak at official events

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/18/shocking-scale-of-uk-governments-secret-files-on-critics-revealed

    Let's hope they didn't read PB.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    ...and 32% in 2019.
    I forecast SKS Genocide Party beats the 32% but falls short of the highest Labour score this Millenium 40% in 2017
    You are batting for a Labour defeat.

    Presumably you are quite comfortable with the Tories squeezing the church-mouse poor and rewarding the super wealthy.
    I am canvassing for the Greens
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    ...and 32% in 2019.
    I forecast SKS Genocide Party beats the 32% but falls short of the highest Labour score this Millenium 40% in 2017
    You are batting for a Labour defeat.

    Presumably you are quite comfortable with the Tories squeezing the church-mouse poor and rewarding the super wealthy.
    I am canvassing for the Greens
    At every opportunity you claim you hope Starmer loses the next election. That means another Conservative Government, so I stand by what I wrote.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    TimS said:

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    ...and 32% in 2019.
    I forecast SKS Genocide Party beats the 32% but falls short of the highest Labour score this Millenium 40% in 2017
    You are batting for a Labour defeat.

    Presumably you are quite comfortable with the Tories squeezing the church-mouse poor and rewarding the super wealthy.
    Of course he is. It allows him to keep feeling better than everyone else.
    I am canvassing (batting for) for the Green Party

    Anyone batting for the blue or red Tories have blood on their, inferior to my Parties, hands.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,908
    ydoethur said:

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    How much did Corbyn get in 2019?
    Brexit Election.

    2017 40% is highest Labour % this Millenium
    That is a simple lie. Blair got a higher share in 2001.

    Edit - and incidentally Corbyn didn't get 40%, it was 39.9%.
    Blair got 40.7% in 2001, so fractionally higher than the 39.9% Corbyn got in 2017 and the 40% Starmer Labour is on tonight.

    With the Conservatives up to 27% the Labour lead of 13% over Sunak's Tories is now identical to Blair's 13% lead over Major's Tories in 1997, albeit Sunak on 27% is still less than the 30% Major got then

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,347
    geoffw said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
    Yep, you must be on the first line of the first page.

    I wonder if Estelle Morris weighed her performance up against the last 13 years of incompetence whether she would re-evaluate or at least mitigate her total unsuitability for the role of Ed. Sec.
    The truth is, it doesn't really matter how good, or intelligent, or otherwise you are as SoS for Education.

    The problem is the department itself which for many years had a culture of failure, mediocrity, arrogance and complete ignorance that has been highly damaging.

    And then blame everyone but themselves for it.

    They're the Post Office with a wider remit.
    So you agree with Michael Gove & Dom Cummings?

    :smiley:
    I always agreed with their diagnoses of the problems.

    If only because the problems themselves are very obvious and easy to understand, even for people of the intellectual calibre of Winnie the Pooh (like Cummings).

    The issue was that as ignorant retards their suggested solutions made things worse, and as arrogant fools they wouldn't accept it when this was pointed out,

    They were just as bad as the civil servants themselves.
    Don't diss Winnie the Pooh.

    Plus I was compared to Winnie the Pooh when I applied to work for the SIS.

    Like Winnie, I would have ended up in numerous honey traps.
    You're quite right, and I humbly and sincerely apologise to Winnie the Pooh for comparing him to Dumbinic Cummings.
    Do we have anyone here civilised enough to have read Winnie the Pooh in the Latin?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winnie_ille_Pu

    Taci taci nemo curat, Xopherus Robinus decedit scalam


    Is that the one where Piglet says:

    "Pedicabo ego vos et irrumabo,
    Xopherus pathice et Pu cinaide."
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    SKS Genocide Party at 40% is on 2nd lowest VI in 2023

    One poll had them at 39% in August

    I think you are correct to point out Starmer has had a shocking war, whereas Rishi has been sublime.

    However your boy has soiled himself to a significantly greater extent than even Starmer.
    My Boy will be judged to be on the right side of history (as usual)

    Your boy refusing to call out slaughter of women and children not so much

    Corbyn is not my boy. A man who until today failed to condemn Hamas for their bloodlust on October 7.
    Not true
  • https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    ...and 32% in 2019.
    I forecast SKS Genocide Party beats the 32% but falls short of the highest Labour score this Millenium 40% in 2017
    You are batting for a Labour defeat.

    Presumably you are quite comfortable with the Tories squeezing the church-mouse poor and rewarding the super wealthy.
    I am canvassing for the Greens
    Green Tories - Green with envy regarding Labour's much higher polling.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,908

    Paging @Leon

    Another poll since Dave came back and the Labour lead is slashed. I make that the occurrence in the majority of the polls.

    Labour’s lead is down to 13 points.

    Labour 40% (-3)
    Conservatives 27% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (+1)
    SNP 3% (n/c)


    Greens 6% (+1)
    Reform 9% (n/c)

    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1725967141910856083?s=46

    @OpiniumResearch
    ·
    Nov 18
    Starmer is at 27% in our best PM question, compared to 22% for Sunak. 'None of these' stays well ahead at 40%.'
    https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967151746498632?s=20
  • geoffw said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
    Yep, you must be on the first line of the first page.

    I wonder if Estelle Morris weighed her performance up against the last 13 years of incompetence whether she would re-evaluate or at least mitigate her total unsuitability for the role of Ed. Sec.
    The truth is, it doesn't really matter how good, or intelligent, or otherwise you are as SoS for Education.

    The problem is the department itself which for many years had a culture of failure, mediocrity, arrogance and complete ignorance that has been highly damaging.

    And then blame everyone but themselves for it.

    They're the Post Office with a wider remit.
    So you agree with Michael Gove & Dom Cummings?

    :smiley:
    I always agreed with their diagnoses of the problems.

    If only because the problems themselves are very obvious and easy to understand, even for people of the intellectual calibre of Winnie the Pooh (like Cummings).

    The issue was that as ignorant retards their suggested solutions made things worse, and as arrogant fools they wouldn't accept it when this was pointed out,

    They were just as bad as the civil servants themselves.
    Don't diss Winnie the Pooh.

    Plus I was compared to Winnie the Pooh when I applied to work for the SIS.

    Like Winnie, I would have ended up in numerous honey traps.
    You're quite right, and I humbly and sincerely apologise to Winnie the Pooh for comparing him to Dumbinic Cummings.
    Do we have anyone here civilised enough to have read Winnie the Pooh in the Latin?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winnie_ille_Pu

    Taci taci nemo curat, Xopherus Robinus decedit scalam


    Ecce homo qui est faba!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708
     
    Sean_F said:

    geoffw said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
    Yep, you must be on the first line of the first page.

    I wonder if Estelle Morris weighed her performance up against the last 13 years of incompetence whether she would re-evaluate or at least mitigate her total unsuitability for the role of Ed. Sec.
    The truth is, it doesn't really matter how good, or intelligent, or otherwise you are as SoS for Education.

    The problem is the department itself which for many years had a culture of failure, mediocrity, arrogance and complete ignorance that has been highly damaging.

    And then blame everyone but themselves for it.

    They're the Post Office with a wider remit.
    So you agree with Michael Gove & Dom Cummings?

    :smiley:
    I always agreed with their diagnoses of the problems.

    If only because the problems themselves are very obvious and easy to understand, even for people of the intellectual calibre of Winnie the Pooh (like Cummings).

    The issue was that as ignorant retards their suggested solutions made things worse, and as arrogant fools they wouldn't accept it when this was pointed out,

    They were just as bad as the civil servants themselves.
    Don't diss Winnie the Pooh.

    Plus I was compared to Winnie the Pooh when I applied to work for the SIS.

    Like Winnie, I would have ended up in numerous honey traps.
    You're quite right, and I humbly and sincerely apologise to Winnie the Pooh for comparing him to Dumbinic Cummings.
    Do we have anyone here civilised enough to have read Winnie the Pooh in the Latin?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winnie_ille_Pu

    Taci taci nemo curat, Xopherus Robinus decedit scalam


    Is that the one where Piglet says:

    "Pedicabo ego vos et irrumabo,
    Xopherus pathice et Pu cinaide."
    Seems likely. It's 65 years since I opened Paginae Primae, but that phrase (Hush hush, nobody cares. Christopher Robin is falling down stairs) stuck in the mind. It may not be exactly correct, mind

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708
     

    geoffw said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    In the space of a few weeks we’ve gone from Hunt saying tax cuts are virtually impossible to tax cuts next week, it makes the government look not very competent...

    It makes them look a bunch of chancers.

    To be honest, compared to all the other epochal fuckups they've made in the last five years, including the exams fiasco, the cancelling of HS2 by stealth, the lockdown parties and the rampaging corruption, it doesn't really make them look any worse than it already did.
    Having complained on social media about weapons grade incompetence from Nick Gibb and Amanda Spielman, do you think you might be on the Conservative Party/ DfE blacklist?
    Probably.

    Especially since I wrote to a number of senior figures blowing the whistle on major regulatory failures including the forging of DBS certificates by an OFSTED inspector.
    Yep, you must be on the first line of the first page.

    I wonder if Estelle Morris weighed her performance up against the last 13 years of incompetence whether she would re-evaluate or at least mitigate her total unsuitability for the role of Ed. Sec.
    The truth is, it doesn't really matter how good, or intelligent, or otherwise you are as SoS for Education.

    The problem is the department itself which for many years had a culture of failure, mediocrity, arrogance and complete ignorance that has been highly damaging.

    And then blame everyone but themselves for it.

    They're the Post Office with a wider remit.
    So you agree with Michael Gove & Dom Cummings?

    :smiley:
    I always agreed with their diagnoses of the problems.

    If only because the problems themselves are very obvious and easy to understand, even for people of the intellectual calibre of Winnie the Pooh (like Cummings).

    The issue was that as ignorant retards their suggested solutions made things worse, and as arrogant fools they wouldn't accept it when this was pointed out,

    They were just as bad as the civil servants themselves.
    Don't diss Winnie the Pooh.

    Plus I was compared to Winnie the Pooh when I applied to work for the SIS.

    Like Winnie, I would have ended up in numerous honey traps.
    You're quite right, and I humbly and sincerely apologise to Winnie the Pooh for comparing him to Dumbinic Cummings.
    Do we have anyone here civilised enough to have read Winnie the Pooh in the Latin?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winnie_ille_Pu

    Taci taci nemo curat, Xopherus Robinus decedit scalam


    Ecce homo qui est faba!
    Beans been a theme this evening

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723

    ‘Shocking’ scale of UK government’s secret files on critics revealed
    Dossiers were compiled by 15 departments after scouring social media activity to vet people invited to speak at official events

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/18/shocking-scale-of-uk-governments-secret-files-on-critics-revealed

    Another load of Guardian shite... onecexpects nothing less.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,307
    tlg86 said:

    I think this is a bit late from Jess Phillips:

    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1725914223883035111

    The use of rape as a weapon of war in the attack against Israel must not slip past us with all the horrors coming out of the war. Sexual violence in war zones is not uncommon and women's security is so fragile in peace time that it's the easiest weapon to employ

    At least she is saying something, even if late.

    Contrast this with the total silence from Reem Alsalem, the UN's Special Rapporteur on Violence against Women and Girls. She has said nothing at all about the rapes of and sadistic attacks on women and girls by Hamas in their 7 October attack. She is of Palestinian background and has issued statements condemning Israel's actions in Gaza. Fair enough. But for her - given her role - to stay silent about violence perpetrated on Jewish women is unforgivable. If she is not prepared to condemn it, she should resign.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    SKS Genocide Party at 40% is on 2nd lowest VI in 2023

    One poll had them at 39% in August

    I think you are correct to point out Starmer has had a shocking war, whereas Rishi has been sublime.

    However your boy has soiled himself to a significantly greater extent than even Starmer.
    My Boy will be judged to be on the right side of history (as usual)

    Your boy refusing to call out slaughter of women and children not so much

    Corbyn is not my boy. A man who until today failed to condemn Hamas for their bloodlust on October 7.
    Not true
    In his interview with Tribune on 10.10.23 he said The heinous attacks on civilians in Israel by Hamas were utterly deplorable and should be condemned as should ........
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    HYUFD said:

    Paging @Leon

    Another poll since Dave came back and the Labour lead is slashed. I make that the occurrence in the majority of the polls.

    Labour’s lead is down to 13 points.

    Labour 40% (-3)
    Conservatives 27% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (+1)
    SNP 3% (n/c)


    Greens 6% (+1)
    Reform 9% (n/c)

    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1725967141910856083?s=46

    @OpiniumResearch
    ·
    Nov 18
    Starmer is at 27% in our best PM question, compared to 22% for Sunak. 'None of these' stays well ahead at 40%.'
    https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967151746498632?s=20
    I am in the 40%
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    TimS said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Blanche’s Baked Beans

    This is the list of ingredients I used the other night, and how I cooked them, but I don’t have a fixed recipe

    75g diced smoked pancetta (lardons or chopped up streaky bacon rashers work fine)
    2 finely sliced cloves garlic
    1 finely chopped small red onion
    1 tin of haricot beans (I’d usually use more beans with this amount of sauce, but I’d usually soak dried beans which my Waitrose doesn’t sell)
    200g soffritto (I bought a pack from Waitrose, but it’s a really good thing to make a big batch of and freeze in portions so you can use have it ready for stuff like this)
    1 tin chopped tomatoes (I used Mutti. Don’t skimp on tinned tomatoes, buy the best)
    About 50ml red wine vinegar
    A heaped teaspoon of muscovado sugar
    Loads of freshly ground black pepper (I apply it liberally at various stages of cooking)

    Gently fry and stir the pancetta until it’s released enough fat to cook the garlic and onions, then add them. Turn up heat to medium and fry until onions are softened. Stir the drained beans in and stir fry for a minute. Add soffritto, vinegar and sugar; keep stirring until it starts to boil then add tomatoes. Bring back almost to boil then transfer to preheated oven dish and oven at 170C, covered for thirty minutes, then uncovered for fifteen. Eat and hate tinned “baked” beans forever

    You might enjoy this recipe :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pj7dEr6rZ7Q

    "Drunken Baked Beans (Frijoles Borrachos)"
    Can't beat a bit of Beans-on-Naan :lol:
    I made Georgian Lobio this evening and would recommend it. Kidney beans with parsley, fenugreek, onions and a few other bits and bobs, cooked to within an inch of their life.

    And Shkmeruli: chicken cooked with cream, cheese and huge amounts of garlic, wonderful.

    And some homemade khachapuri which sort of worked but was too crispy on the outside.
    Over recent weeks I have been working on Jollof Rice, having been inspired after buying a jar of Jollof seasoning in Sainsbury world foods section.

    It's a fairly simple recipe but the key is getting the sauce to rice ratio correct and burning it just enough in the skillet to get a malliard reaction, but not too much.


  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    ‘Shocking’ scale of UK government’s secret files on critics revealed
    Dossiers were compiled by 15 departments after scouring social media activity to vet people invited to speak at official events

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/18/shocking-scale-of-uk-governments-secret-files-on-critics-revealed

    Let's hope they didn't read PB.
    I think my prospects of becoming President of the Royal College has declined further.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708
     
    Foxy said:

    ‘Shocking’ scale of UK government’s secret files on critics revealed
    Dossiers were compiled by 15 departments after scouring social media activity to vet people invited to speak at official events

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/18/shocking-scale-of-uk-governments-secret-files-on-critics-revealed

    Let's hope they didn't read PB.
    I think my prospects of becoming President of the Royal College has declined further.
    You aspire to be a union boss?

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    geoffw said:

     

    Foxy said:

    ‘Shocking’ scale of UK government’s secret files on critics revealed
    Dossiers were compiled by 15 departments after scouring social media activity to vet people invited to speak at official events

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/18/shocking-scale-of-uk-governments-secret-files-on-critics-revealed

    Let's hope they didn't read PB.
    I think my prospects of becoming President of the Royal College has declined further.
    You aspire to be a union boss?

    No, the Royal Colleges are specifically banned from Trade Union activities, such as negotiating terms and conditions. That is the role of BMA, HCSA etc.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,307
    edited November 2023

    ‘Shocking’ scale of UK government’s secret files on critics revealed
    Dossiers were compiled by 15 departments after scouring social media activity to vet people invited to speak at official events

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/18/shocking-scale-of-uk-governments-secret-files-on-critics-revealed

    Let's hope they didn't read PB.
    A few years back I applied for a role on some police supervision body. Got onto the shortlist. Was asked about social media profile so pointed to the articles I had written. Short list went to the Home Office. When it came back I was no longer on it. Not that I had any great expectations - this was during Dick's time in charge of the Met and the police were not keen on having anyone challenge them. The body was really jobs for retired policemen - one of the many "scratch my back etc" bodies that infest our public life.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    TimS said:

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    ...and 32% in 2019.
    I forecast SKS Genocide Party beats the 32% but falls short of the highest Labour score this Millenium 40% in 2017
    You are batting for a Labour defeat.

    Presumably you are quite comfortable with the Tories squeezing the church-mouse poor and rewarding the super wealthy.
    Of course he is. It allows him to keep feeling better than everyone else.
    I am canvassing (batting for) for the Green Party

    Anyone batting for the blue or red Tories have blood on their, inferior to my Parties, hands.
    Here’s the thing. I’m a Lib Dem member and activist. But I want Labour to win the next election because we live in a FPTP system and the alternative is a Tory government. It’s a binary choice.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    ...and 32% in 2019.
    I forecast SKS Genocide Party beats the 32% but falls short of the highest Labour score this Millenium 40% in 2017
    You are batting for a Labour defeat.

    Presumably you are quite comfortable with the Tories squeezing the church-mouse poor and rewarding the super wealthy.
    Blue Tories are about to announce tax cuts for the top 4% of society paid for by removing free medical care from the sick & disabled because they are unemployed. And L4%K on behalf of Red Tories Labour says the cuts to welfare don’t go far enough.

    Presume you are quite comfortable with that.

    My Party is campaigning for a wealth tax
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    ...and 32% in 2019.
    I forecast SKS Genocide Party beats the 32% but falls short of the highest Labour score this Millenium 40% in 2017
    You are batting for a Labour defeat.

    Presumably you are quite comfortable with the Tories squeezing the church-mouse poor and rewarding the super wealthy.
    Of course he is. It allows him to keep feeling better than everyone else.
    I am canvassing (batting for) for the Green Party

    Anyone batting for the blue or red Tories have blood on their, inferior to my Parties, hands.
    Here’s the thing. I’m a Lib Dem member and activist. But I want Labour to win the next election because we live in a FPTP system and the alternative is a Tory government. It’s a binary choice.
    Why?

    They are identical in every respect.

    We need a hung Parliament where the price for supporting either the blue or red Tories is PR

  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    Surely the key thing for the Tories is to get over to the public the fact that there IS more headroom. Cutting the rate of inheritance tax strikes me as quite ludicrous. I could just about understand raising the threshold but cutting the rate? That's just a massive break to very wealthy people on the whole. Are they unhappy that too many rich people aren't voting for them?

    The idea that the country needs to make it easier for the generally already wealthy to pass on wealth stoking inequality tells you everything about how politically and economically inept the Tory Party now is. Even if you are a hard right type of person don't vote for this shower, they are useless, and the public will almost certainly give them a kicking next year that is long overdue.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,816
    edited November 2023
    Cyclefree said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think this is a bit late from Jess Phillips:

    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1725914223883035111

    The use of rape as a weapon of war in the attack against Israel must not slip past us with all the horrors coming out of the war. Sexual violence in war zones is not uncommon and women's security is so fragile in peace time that it's the easiest weapon to employ

    At least she is saying something, even if late.

    Contrast this with the total silence from Reem Alsalem, the UN's Special Rapporteur on Violence against Women and Girls. She has said nothing at all about the rapes of and sadistic attacks on women and girls by Hamas in their 7 October attack. She is of Palestinian background and has issued statements condemning Israel's actions in Gaza. Fair enough. But for her - given her role - to stay silent about violence perpetrated on Jewish women is unforgivable. If she is not prepared to condemn it, she should resign.
    Of course the attacks were sadistic. But 3,300 Palestinian women have been killed by IDF bombardment since 7th October. Expectant mothers in Gaza have had to give birth without pain relief.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,347
    Cyclefree said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think this is a bit late from Jess Phillips:

    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1725914223883035111

    The use of rape as a weapon of war in the attack against Israel must not slip past us with all the horrors coming out of the war. Sexual violence in war zones is not uncommon and women's security is so fragile in peace time that it's the easiest weapon to employ

    At least she is saying something, even if late.

    Contrast this with the total silence from Reem Alsalem, the UN's Special Rapporteur on Violence against Women and Girls. She has said nothing at all about the rapes of and sadistic attacks on women and girls by Hamas in their 7 October attack. She is of Palestinian background and has issued statements condemning Israel's actions in Gaza. Fair enough. But for her - given her role - to stay silent about violence perpetrated on Jewish women is unforgivable. If she is not prepared to condemn it, she should resign.
    I view UN Special Rapporteurs as being on a par with Post Office senior managers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    ‘Shocking’ scale of UK government’s secret files on critics revealed
    Dossiers were compiled by 15 departments after scouring social media activity to vet people invited to speak at official events

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/18/shocking-scale-of-uk-governments-secret-files-on-critics-revealed

    Let's hope they didn't read PB.
    First they came for the knappers...
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    ...and 32% in 2019.
    I forecast SKS Genocide Party beats the 32% but falls short of the highest Labour score this Millenium 40% in 2017
    You are batting for a Labour defeat.

    Presumably you are quite comfortable with the Tories squeezing the church-mouse poor and rewarding the super wealthy.
    Blue Tories are about to announce tax cuts for the top 4% of society paid for by removing free medical care from the sick & disabled because they are unemployed. And L4%K on behalf of Red Tories Labour says the cuts to welfare don’t go far enough.

    Presume you are quite comfortable with that.

    My Party is campaigning for a wealth tax
    Have you been taking lessons from Tim, late of this parish..?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    ...and 32% in 2019.
    I forecast SKS Genocide Party beats the 32% but falls short of the highest Labour score this Millenium 40% in 2017
    You are batting for a Labour defeat.

    Presumably you are quite comfortable with the Tories squeezing the church-mouse poor and rewarding the super wealthy.
    Of course he is. It allows him to keep feeling better than everyone else.
    I am canvassing (batting for) for the Green Party

    Anyone batting for the blue or red Tories have blood on their, inferior to my Parties, hands.
    Here’s the thing. I’m a Lib Dem member and activist. But I want Labour to win the next election because we live in a FPTP system and the alternative is a Tory government. It’s a binary choice.
    Why?

    They are identical in every respect.

    We need a hung Parliament where the price for supporting either the blue or red Tories is PR

    They are not identical in every respect.
    You may be happy with 5 more years of Conservative rule. I’m not.
  • Nigelb said:

    ‘Shocking’ scale of UK government’s secret files on critics revealed
    Dossiers were compiled by 15 departments after scouring social media activity to vet people invited to speak at official events

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/18/shocking-scale-of-uk-governments-secret-files-on-critics-revealed

    Let's hope they didn't read PB.
    First they came for the knappers...
    I hope "they" like beans on naan... [gulp]
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    edited November 2023
    glw said:

    Surely the key thing for the Tories is to get over to the public the fact that there IS more headroom. Cutting the rate of inheritance tax strikes me as quite ludicrous. I could just about understand raising the threshold but cutting the rate? That's just a massive break to very wealthy people on the whole. Are they unhappy that too many rich people aren't voting for them?

    The idea that the country needs to make it easier for the generally already wealthy to pass on wealth stoking inequality tells you everything about how politically and economically inept the Tory Party now is. Even if you are a hard right type of person don't vote for this shower, they are useless, and the public will almost certainly give them a kicking next year that is long overdue.
    It's not a case of making it easier, it's a case of reducing an unfair tax on the departed. In reality it should be removed altogether.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    I see the DE is now on operation terrify everyone with the “ small boat terrorists “ . Clearly no 10 wants the baying mob to now fall for this guff .

    Terrorists don’t need small boats they tend to be well funded and aren’t going to be waiting around for weeks waiting to cross the Channel .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,908
    edited November 2023

    Paging @Leon

    Another poll since Dave came back and the Labour lead is slashed. I make that the occurrence in the majority of the polls.

    Labour’s lead is down to 13 points.

    Labour 40% (-3)
    Conservatives 27% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (+1)
    SNP 3% (n/c)
    Greens 6% (+1)
    Reform 9% (n/c)

    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1725967141910856083?s=46

    Some good news for Rishi this evening, tonight's Opinium poll puts the Tories on 185 seats, so more than the 165 seats Major's Tories got in 1997 and the 166 seats Hague's Tories got in 2001.

    Even if Labour is still forecast to get a landslide majority for Starmer of 130 (albeit still smaller than Blair's landslide majority of 179 in 1997)
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=27&LAB=40&LIB=12&Reform=9&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19.5&SCOTLAB=33.5&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=34&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think this is a bit late from Jess Phillips:

    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1725914223883035111

    The use of rape as a weapon of war in the attack against Israel must not slip past us with all the horrors coming out of the war. Sexual violence in war zones is not uncommon and women's security is so fragile in peace time that it's the easiest weapon to employ

    At least she is saying something, even if late.

    Contrast this with the total silence from Reem Alsalem, the UN's Special Rapporteur on Violence against Women and Girls. She has said nothing at all about the rapes of and sadistic attacks on women and girls by Hamas in their 7 October attack. She is of Palestinian background and has issued statements condemning Israel's actions in Gaza. Fair enough. But for her - given her role - to stay silent about violence perpetrated on Jewish women is unforgivable. If she is not prepared to condemn it, she should resign.
    I view UN Special Rapporteurs as being on a par with Post Office senior managers.
    The UN is in a difficult moment in its history, it’s fair to say. Never a perfect institution but it’s really struggling with the new great power politics, rather as the League did in the 30s.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    edited November 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Paging @Leon

    Another poll since Dave came back and the Labour lead is slashed. I make that the occurrence in the majority of the polls.

    Labour’s lead is down to 13 points.

    Labour 40% (-3)
    Conservatives 27% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (+1)
    SNP 3% (n/c)
    Greens 6% (+1)
    Reform 9% (n/c)

    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1725967141910856083?s=46

    Some good news for Rishi this evening, tonight's Opinium poll puts the Tories on 185 seats, so more than the 165 seats Major's Tories got in 1997 and the 166 seats Hague's Tories got in 2001.

    Even if Labour is still forecast to get a landslide majority for Starmer of 130 (albeit still smaller than Blair's landslide majority of 179 in 1997)
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=27&LAB=40&LIB=12&Reform=9&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19.5&SCOTLAB=33.5&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=34&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
    It’s good we have Opinium. It may not be correct, but it’s out there and should give pundits pause for thought.

    If I were a pollster I’d just take people’s answers, re-rate Green down to 3% and any far right party to something similar, add 5% on to the Tories and take off the same from Labour. And bobs your uncle.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    ...and 32% in 2019.
    I forecast SKS Genocide Party beats the 32% but falls short of the highest Labour score this Millenium 40% in 2017
    You are batting for a Labour defeat.

    Presumably you are quite comfortable with the Tories squeezing the church-mouse poor and rewarding the super wealthy.
    IKKKKAAAAARRRRAAAA!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    Nigelb said:

    ‘Shocking’ scale of UK government’s secret files on critics revealed
    Dossiers were compiled by 15 departments after scouring social media activity to vet people invited to speak at official events

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/18/shocking-scale-of-uk-governments-secret-files-on-critics-revealed

    Let's hope they didn't read PB.
    First they came for the knappers...
    I hope "they" like beans on naan... [gulp]
    Then they came for the vegetarians...
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    SKS Genocide Party at 40% is on 2nd lowest VI in 2023

    One poll had them at 39% in August

    I think you are correct to point out Starmer has had a shocking war, whereas Rishi has been sublime.

    However your boy has soiled himself to a significantly greater extent than even Starmer.
    My Boy will be judged to be on the right side of history (as usual)

    Your boy refusing to call out slaughter of women and children not so much

    Corbyn is not my boy. A man who until today failed to condemn Hamas for their bloodlust on October 7.
    Not true
    You're quite correct. He keeps saying it "must be condemned", so that he doesn't have to actually condemn it himself.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051

    SKS Genocide Party at 40% is on 2nd lowest VI in 2023

    One poll had them at 39% in August

    Are there any serious bodies that have accused Israel of committing genocide? Not that I can see.

    Throwing words like genocide around in such a loose fashion risks devaluing the term.
    https://time.com/6334409/is-whats-happening-gaza-genocide-experts/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    glw said:

    Surely the key thing for the Tories is to get over to the public the fact that there IS more headroom. Cutting the rate of inheritance tax strikes me as quite ludicrous. I could just about understand raising the threshold but cutting the rate? That's just a massive break to very wealthy people on the whole. Are they unhappy that too many rich people aren't voting for them?

    The idea that the country needs to make it easier for the generally already wealthy to pass on wealth stoking inequality tells you everything about how politically and economically inept the Tory Party now is. Even if you are a hard right type of person don't vote for this shower, they are useless, and the public will almost certainly give them a kicking next year that is long overdue.
    It's not a case of making it easier, it's a case of reducing an unfair tax on the departed. In reality it should be removed altogether.
    Being dead is like being stupid. It's only a problem for other people.

    The dead no longer care about money.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,307

    Cyclefree said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think this is a bit late from Jess Phillips:

    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1725914223883035111

    The use of rape as a weapon of war in the attack against Israel must not slip past us with all the horrors coming out of the war. Sexual violence in war zones is not uncommon and women's security is so fragile in peace time that it's the easiest weapon to employ

    At least she is saying something, even if late.

    Contrast this with the total silence from Reem Alsalem, the UN's Special Rapporteur on Violence against Women and Girls. She has said nothing at all about the rapes of and sadistic attacks on women and girls by Hamas in their 7 October attack. She is of Palestinian background and has issued statements condemning Israel's actions in Gaza. Fair enough. But for her - given her role - to stay silent about violence perpetrated on Jewish women is unforgivable. If she is not prepared to condemn it, she should resign.
    Of course the attacks were sadistic. But 3,300 Palestinian women have been killed by IDF bombardment since 7th October. Expectant mothers in Gaza have had to give birth without pain relief.
    You are missing the point. She has condemned what Israel is doing in Gaza. But has not condemned the violence perpetrated on women in Israel. When her role is specifically to campaign against violence against women and girls. Or now - I suppose - violence against women and girls, but not Jewish ones. Or those who were not Jewish but happened to be there at the time. Like those from Thailand for instance.

    I recently saw her give a speech which was impressive at the time. But for all the fine talk, when it came to it, she has stayed silent on violence against a particular group of women when she should have spoken up.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    Surely the key thing for the Tories is to get over to the public the fact that there IS more headroom. Cutting the rate of inheritance tax strikes me as quite ludicrous. I could just about understand raising the threshold but cutting the rate? That's just a massive break to very wealthy people on the whole. Are they unhappy that too many rich people aren't voting for them?

    The idea that the country needs to make it easier for the generally already wealthy to pass on wealth stoking inequality tells you everything about how politically and economically inept the Tory Party now is. Even if you are a hard right type of person don't vote for this shower, they are useless, and the public will almost certainly give them a kicking next year that is long overdue.
    It's not a case of making it easier, it's a case of reducing an unfair tax on the departed. In reality it should be removed altogether.
    Being dead is like being stupid. It's only a problem for other people.

    The dead no longer care about money.
    Some funeral company is putting out ads encouraging people to prepare for their funeral by talking to people about what they want to happen at their funeral. My wife has always said that she doesn't care. She says the funeral is for the living and not for the dead.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,347

    SKS Genocide Party at 40% is on 2nd lowest VI in 2023

    One poll had them at 39% in August

    Are there any serious bodies that have accused Israel of committing genocide? Not that I can see.

    Throwing words like genocide around in such a loose fashion risks devaluing the term.
    https://time.com/6334409/is-whats-happening-gaza-genocide-experts/
    Raz Segal uses the term very loosely, due to his extreme partisanship on Israel/Palestine.

  • https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1725967141910856083

    SKS Fans please explain

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017

    ...and 32% in 2019.
    I forecast SKS Genocide Party beats the 32% but falls short of the highest Labour score this Millenium 40% in 2017
    You are batting for a Labour defeat.

    Presumably you are quite comfortable with the Tories squeezing the church-mouse poor and rewarding the super wealthy.
    IKKKKAAAAARRRRAAAA!
    SQUID!

    RBU!!
  • Foxy said:

    geoffw said:

     

    Foxy said:

    ‘Shocking’ scale of UK government’s secret files on critics revealed
    Dossiers were compiled by 15 departments after scouring social media activity to vet people invited to speak at official events

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/18/shocking-scale-of-uk-governments-secret-files-on-critics-revealed

    Let's hope they didn't read PB.
    I think my prospects of becoming President of the Royal College has declined further.
    You aspire to be a union boss?

    No, the Royal Colleges are specifically banned from Trade Union activities, such as negotiating terms and conditions. That is the role of BMA, HCSA etc.
    Apart from the RCN, of course, which should be renamed the National Union of Nursing Operatives and Allied Trades but which, for some reason, enjoys royal patronage in spite of being a trades union.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,347
    TimS said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think this is a bit late from Jess Phillips:

    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1725914223883035111

    The use of rape as a weapon of war in the attack against Israel must not slip past us with all the horrors coming out of the war. Sexual violence in war zones is not uncommon and women's security is so fragile in peace time that it's the easiest weapon to employ

    At least she is saying something, even if late.

    Contrast this with the total silence from Reem Alsalem, the UN's Special Rapporteur on Violence against Women and Girls. She has said nothing at all about the rapes of and sadistic attacks on women and girls by Hamas in their 7 October attack. She is of Palestinian background and has issued statements condemning Israel's actions in Gaza. Fair enough. But for her - given her role - to stay silent about violence perpetrated on Jewish women is unforgivable. If she is not prepared to condemn it, she should resign.
    I view UN Special Rapporteurs as being on a par with Post Office senior managers.
    The UN is in a difficult moment in its history, it’s fair to say. Never a perfect institution but it’s really struggling with the new great power politics, rather as the League did in the 30s.
    Special rapporteurs tend to be polemicists, strongly committed to one side in a conflict.
This discussion has been closed.