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Khomeini days have the ayatollahs left ? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited November 2023 in General
Khomeini days have the ayatollahs left ? – politicalbetting.com

I remember the overthrow of the Shah quite vividly. Television coverage of young radicals with guns out on the street demanding the end of corruption, a more open society and a better distribution of wealth. The Shah fled and Ayatollah Khomeini flew into a tumultuous welcome. Then the state clammed up and the revolution ate its children. For over forty years now Iran has presented an austere face to the outside world, a theocratic monolith prepared to face off to all comers. That vision is what we have grown up with but now there are signs their monolith is cracking.

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    Iran like the UK has unelected clergy in their parliament which is shi'ite if you ask me, the UK should stop acting like a theocracy.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    LAB: 46% (=)
    CON: 22% (-3)
    LDM: 11% (+1)
    RFM: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via @techneUK, 15-16 Nov.
    Changes w/ 8-9 Nov.


    Another triumphant poll for the World’s Greatest Reshuffle
  • Options
    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    edited November 2023

    Iran like the UK has unelected clergy in their parliament which is shi'ite if you ask me, the UK should stop acting like a theocracy.

    Are you saying that when Edward I set up his model parliament Iran it the wrong way?

    (Not forgetting he was also a Jew hating genocidal nutcase who would have got on well with the Ayatollahs.)
  • Options
    Nice to see Suella Braverman's strategy being called out for the fascist and unConservative bollocks it is.


  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,317

    Iran like the UK has unelected clergy in their parliament which is shi'ite if you ask me, the UK should stop acting like a theocracy.

    That presumes that the Church of England, in the U.K., is a religious organisation.

    Is ther me any evidence of that?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Nice to see Suella Braverman's strategy being called out for the fascist and unConservative bollocks it is.


    Damian Green. lol
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    Iran like the UK has unelected clergy in their parliament which is shi'ite if you ask me, the UK should stop acting like a theocracy.

    That presumes that the Church of England, in the U.K., is a religious organisation.

    Is ther me any evidence of that?
    Wasn't it Dennis Skinner who said, 'Hands off the Church of England! It's all that stands between us and Christianity?'
  • Options
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Doethur, worth remembering Edward I did go on crusade, (he was in the Holy Land when he became king, and was perhaps the first medieval monarch to become king without immediately having a coronation).
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Doethur, worth remembering Edward I did go on crusade, (he was in the Holy Land when he became king, and was perhaps the first medieval monarch to become king without immediately having a coronation).

    Indeed. I thought of adding that in but I couldn't think of a subtle pun that would fit and I didn't want anything like the one in the thread header...
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    Iran like the UK has unelected clergy in their parliament which is shi'ite if you ask me, the UK should stop acting like a theocracy.

    Are you saying that when Edward I set up his model parliament Iran it the wrong way?

    (Not forgetting he was also a Jew hating genocidal nutcase who would have got on well with the Ayatollahs.)
    But on other matters he was ahead of his time like unifying England & Scotland, a decision which was endorsed 700 years later.)
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Eabhal said:

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    Inheritance tax cut: £35 billion over 5 years

    Cost of HS2 to Manchester: £36 billion
    Indeed. And over a longer timeframe with the potential for substantial return on the investment.

    Somebody has profited mightily from this decision, but not the country.

    Incidentally if he's worried about inflation surely a sane Chancellor would prioritise cutting VAT?
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Nice to see Suella Braverman's strategy being called out for the fascist and unConservative bollocks it is.


    Damian Green. lol
    Always wrong Leon, LOL.

    Remember when you were against electoral reform, now look at you.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Cutting inheritance tax for rich families but nothing else in the middle of a cost of living crisis is about the most tin-eared thing anyone could do, so of course Sunak will do it.

    He really is quite impressively bad at politics.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I spoke to a pollster who last night reminded me about one of Sir John Curtice's golden rules, it takes about a week to 10 days for a news story to filter into the polls.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    Nice to see Suella Braverman's strategy being called out for the fascist and unConservative bollocks it is.


    Damian Green. lol
    Always wrong Leon, LOL.

    Remember when you were against electoral reform, now look at you.
    That’s a measured change of opinion, reflecting altered circumstances over many years

    Not a howling and embarrassing error: like you acclaiming Sunak’s reshuffle as inspired - “I’ve got my party back”

    Still, @topping agreed with you. So you’re not alone

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800
    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    Inheritance tax cut: £35 billion over 5 years

    Cost of HS2 to Manchester: £36 billion
    Indeed. And over a longer timeframe with the potential for substantial return on the investment.

    Somebody has profited mightily from this decision, but not the country.

    Incidentally if he's worried about inflation surely a sane Chancellor would prioritise cutting VAT?
    I’d go for either cutting NI or raising income tax thresholds, if there is money available. Make work pay.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I spoke to a pollster who last night reminded me about one of Sir John Curtice's golden rules, it takes about a week to 10 days for a news story to filter into the polls.
    Hmm

    If it’s not the reshuffle, what else do you think has caused this sudden and notable drop in Tory polling, right after the reshuffle? This is the fourth poll showing a plunge in Tory support, IIRC

  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    On topic, sadly dismal governments can last for a very long time if they dial up the repression and just don't care. Cuba has been "about to collapse" since 1991 and North Korea looks horribly stable. As de Tocqueville noted, the most dangerous time for a bad government is when it tries to do a bit better, and there is no sign of the Iranians, Cubans or North Koreans attempting to improve at all.

    It's a tragedy for the people involved of course and a small shame for me personally because Iran is one of the few countries left on my list to visit one day.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I spoke to a pollster who last night reminded me about one of Sir John Curtice's golden rules, it takes about a week to 10 days for a news story to filter into the polls.
    Hmm

    If it’s not the reshuffle, what else do you think has caused this sudden and notable drop in Tory polling, right after the reshuffle? This is the fourth poll showing a plunge in Tory support, IIRC

    Suella Braverman spouting her bollocks, you seem to forget 70% supported Sunak sacking her.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I spoke to a pollster who last night reminded me about one of Sir John Curtice's golden rules, it takes about a week to 10 days for a news story to filter into the polls.
    Hmm

    If it’s not the reshuffle, what else do you think has caused this sudden and notable drop in Tory polling, right after the reshuffle? This is the fourth poll showing a plunge in Tory support, IIRC

    Suella Braverman spouting her bollocks, you seem to forget 70% supported Sunak sacking her.
    So by your logic in 7-10 days when the public realises with great joy that Rishi Sunak has appointed David “Brexit-loser” Cameron as unelected Foreign Secretary the Tories will regain all these new polling deficits and then add more support due to general public elation that the adults are back in charge? Is that your new prediction?
  • Options
    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I spoke to a pollster who last night reminded me about one of Sir John Curtice's golden rules, it takes about a week to 10 days for a news story to filter into the polls.
    Hmm

    If it’s not the reshuffle, what else do you think has caused this sudden and notable drop in Tory polling, right after the reshuffle? This is the fourth poll showing a plunge in Tory support, IIRC

    Suella Braverman spouting her bollocks, you seem to forget 70% supported Sunak sacking her.
    So by your logic in 7-10 days when the public realises with great joy that Rishi Sunak has appointed David “Brexit-loser” Cameron as unelected Foreign Secretary the Tories will regain all these new polling deficits and then add more support due to general public elation that the adults are back in charge? Is that your new prediction?
    Nope, I expect David Cameron's return to have little long term impact on the polls.

    Foreign Affairs rarely moves opinion polls.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Cutting inheritance tax for rich families but nothing else in the middle of a cost of living crisis is about the most tin-eared thing anyone could do, so of course Sunak will do it.

    He really is quite impressively bad at politics.

    He is appalling. So is Hunt. I mean - appointing Cameron? Really??

    I actually wonder if Sunak is worse than Truss
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,635
    edited November 2023

    Iran like the UK has unelected clergy in their parliament which is shi'ite if you ask me, the UK should stop acting like a theocracy.

    That presumes that the Church of England, in the U.K., is a religious organisation.

    Is ther me any evidence of that?
    They claim a religious dispensation of conscience to disobey the state's own laws on marrying gay and lesbian couples.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586
    IBM stop advertising through Twitter; Elon Musk condemned for antisemitism: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67446797
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I spoke to a pollster who last night reminded me about one of Sir John Curtice's golden rules, it takes about a week to 10 days for a news story to filter into the polls.
    Hmm

    If it’s not the reshuffle, what else do you think has caused this sudden and notable drop in Tory polling, right after the reshuffle? This is the fourth poll showing a plunge in Tory support, IIRC

    Suella Braverman spouting her bollocks, you seem to forget 70% supported Sunak sacking her.
    So by your logic in 7-10 days when the public realises with great joy that Rishi Sunak has appointed David “Brexit-loser” Cameron as unelected Foreign Secretary the Tories will regain all these new polling deficits and then add more support due to general public elation that the adults are back in charge? Is that your new prediction?
    Nope, I expect David Cameron's return to have little long term impact on the polls.

    Foreign Affairs rarely moves opinion polls.
    OK I’m confused now

    So your opinion is that the sudden drop in Tory support after the Great Reshuffle has nothing to do with the reshuffle, it’s because so many people were annoyed by a column Suella Braverman wrote in the Times about even-handed policing?
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,117
    edited November 2023
    It would be interesting to know what Cameron really thinks about the Rwanda strategy.

    There's a piece in the Independent quoting George Osborne as saying that with Cameron as Foreign Secretary, leaving the ECHR is "off the table", despite some of Cameron's past rhetoric.

    I had to smile reading a quotation from Cameron in 2015:
    "We are very clear about what we want, which is British judges making decisions in British courts."

    Braverman's version seems to be "no judges making any decisions in any courts".
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I was tempted to have a long week in Las Vegas for the F1 but I am glad I decided against it.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800
    Fishing said:

    On topic, sadly dismal governments can last for a very long time if they dial up the repression and just don't care. Cuba has been "about to collapse" since 1991 and North Korea looks horribly stable. As de Tocqueville noted, the most dangerous time for a bad government is when it tries to do a bit better, and there is no sign of the Iranians, Cubans or North Koreans attempting to improve at all.

    It's a tragedy for the people involved of course and a small shame for me personally because Iran is one of the few countries left on my list to visit one day.

    You could add Zimbabwe and Venezuela to the list. Appalling governments remain in power, so long as they enjoy the backing of the security forces. Whereas if enough of the security forces turn (like Romania in 1989), then the tyrants’ power just vanishes.
  • Options

    Cutting inheritance tax for rich families but nothing else in the middle of a cost of living crisis is about the most tin-eared thing anyone could do, so of course Sunak will do it.

    He really is quite impressively bad at politics.

    I dunno. If by effective politics you mean enacting things you want, a cut in the IHT rate is genius by Sunak and Hunt.

    Increasing the threshold, I can sort of understand. Not enough to like it, but I can understand the "our people fear it, so move the threshold into the stratosphere" logic.

    Cutting the rate means that nearly all the revenue forgone is from estates right at the very very top of the exponential distribution. Incompetent squillionaires, in other words. If not Rishi, then Rishi's kind of people.

    The only time the Conservatives could get away with that is in the lame duck phase of a third hand mandate.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    I AM CROSSING THE BAY OF KAMPONG SOM
  • Options
    Leon said:



    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I spoke to a pollster who last night reminded me about one of Sir John Curtice's golden rules, it takes about a week to 10 days for a news story to filter into the polls.
    Hmm

    If it’s not the reshuffle, what else do you think has caused this sudden and notable drop in Tory polling, right after the reshuffle? This is the fourth poll showing a plunge in Tory support, IIRC

    Suella Braverman spouting her bollocks, you seem to forget 70% supported Sunak sacking her.
    So by your logic in 7-10 days when the public realises with great joy that Rishi Sunak has appointed David “Brexit-loser” Cameron as unelected Foreign Secretary the Tories will regain all these new polling deficits and then add more support due to general public elation that the adults are back in charge? Is that your new prediction?
    Nope, I expect David Cameron's return to have little long term impact on the polls.

    Foreign Affairs rarely moves opinion polls.
    OK I’m confused now

    So your opinion is that the sudden drop in Tory support after the Great Reshuffle has nothing to do with the reshuffle, it’s because so many people were annoyed by a column Suella Braverman wrote in the Times about even-handed policing?
    We don't know yet.

    The big red flag for me was that we should be cautious is that the YouGov poll saw Labour's share fall even more, hence reducing their lead over the Tories.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586
    Every Israeli attack on Iran strengthens the ruling regime. The presence of an outside threat is usually a great way to whip up some patriotic support for the country as is.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I was tempted to have a long week in Las Vegas for the F1 but I am glad I decided against it.
    I was as well, until I saw the prices. I could be in the Paddock Club in Abu Dhabi next weekend, for less than a bog-standard grandstand seat in Vegas.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I was tempted to have a long week in Las Vegas for the F1 but I am glad I decided against it.
    I was as well, until I saw the prices. I could be in the Paddock Club in Abu Dhabi next weekend, for less than a bog-standard grandstand seat in Vegas.
    I was quoted $60,000 for the week and that's with basic/little corporate hospitality.

    Top end was around $150,000.
  • Options
    Chris said:

    It would be interesting to know what Cameron really thinks about the Rwanda strategy.

    There's a piece in the Independent quoting George Osborne as saying that with Cameron as Foreign Secretary, leaving the ECHR is "off the table", despite some of Cameron's past rhetoric.

    I had to smile reading a quotation from Cameron in 2015:
    "We are very clear about what we want, which is British judges making decisions in British courts."

    Braverman's version seems to be "no judges making any decisions in any courts".

    None she disagrees with, anyway.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:



    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I spoke to a pollster who last night reminded me about one of Sir John Curtice's golden rules, it takes about a week to 10 days for a news story to filter into the polls.
    Hmm

    If it’s not the reshuffle, what else do you think has caused this sudden and notable drop in Tory polling, right after the reshuffle? This is the fourth poll showing a plunge in Tory support, IIRC

    Suella Braverman spouting her bollocks, you seem to forget 70% supported Sunak sacking her.
    So by your logic in 7-10 days when the public realises with great joy that Rishi Sunak has appointed David “Brexit-loser” Cameron as unelected Foreign Secretary the Tories will regain all these new polling deficits and then add more support due to general public elation that the adults are back in charge? Is that your new prediction?
    Nope, I expect David Cameron's return to have little long term impact on the polls.

    Foreign Affairs rarely moves opinion polls.
    OK I’m confused now

    So your opinion is that the sudden drop in Tory support after the Great Reshuffle has nothing to do with the reshuffle, it’s because so many people were annoyed by a column Suella Braverman wrote in the Times about even-handed policing?
    We don't know yet.

    The big red flag for me was that we should be cautious is that the YouGov poll saw Labour's share fall even more, hence reducing their lead over the Tories.
    I suspect that if the last four polls - after the reshuffle - were showing 3-4 point gains in Tory support - rather than slumps - you would be loudly proclaiming them as evidence that you were right: the reshuffle was inspired, people love Dave, Remainers are flocking back

    But we shall see. So far so bad for Sunak and Cameron
  • Options
    Mr. Eagles, there are concerns the colder temperatures on a circuit with high speeds might not necessarily work out well...
  • Options

    Mr. Eagles, there are concerns the colder temperatures on a circuit with high speeds might not necessarily work out well...

    The manhole covers seem to be the bigger issue.

    Biggest farce in F1 in America since 2005?
  • Options
    Leon said:



    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I spoke to a pollster who last night reminded me about one of Sir John Curtice's golden rules, it takes about a week to 10 days for a news story to filter into the polls.
    Hmm

    If it’s not the reshuffle, what else do you think has caused this sudden and notable drop in Tory polling, right after the reshuffle? This is the fourth poll showing a plunge in Tory support, IIRC

    Suella Braverman spouting her bollocks, you seem to forget 70% supported Sunak sacking her.
    So by your logic in 7-10 days when the public realises with great joy that Rishi Sunak has appointed David “Brexit-loser” Cameron as unelected Foreign Secretary the Tories will regain all these new polling deficits and then add more support due to general public elation that the adults are back in charge? Is that your new prediction?
    Nope, I expect David Cameron's return to have little long term impact on the polls.

    Foreign Affairs rarely moves opinion polls.
    OK I’m confused now

    So your opinion is that the sudden drop in Tory support after the Great Reshuffle has nothing to do with the reshuffle, it’s because so many people were annoyed by a column Suella Braverman wrote in the Times about even-handed policing?
    The "annoying both sides" thing applies to the Suella and the Senotaph Story as well. Wets not liking what the said, Righties not liking the fact that she didn't stop the pro-Palestinian march.

    In other words, there could be even worse polls incoming, as more urine is directed at the canvas shelter.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,358
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:


    Leon said:



    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I spoke to a pollster who last night reminded me about one of Sir John Curtice's golden rules, it takes about a week to 10 days for a news story to filter into the polls.
    Hmm

    If it’s not the reshuffle, what else do you think has caused this sudden and notable drop in Tory polling, right after the reshuffle? This is the fourth poll showing a plunge in Tory support, IIRC

    Suella Braverman spouting her bollocks, you seem to forget 70% supported Sunak sacking her.
    So by your logic in 7-10 days when the public realises with great joy that Rishi Sunak has appointed David “Brexit-loser” Cameron as unelected Foreign Secretary the Tories will regain all these new polling deficits and then add more support due to general public elation that the adults are back in charge? Is that your new prediction?
    Nope, I expect David Cameron's return to have little long term impact on the polls.

    Foreign Affairs rarely moves opinion polls.
    OK I’m confused now

    So your opinion is that the sudden drop in Tory support after the Great Reshuffle has nothing to do with the reshuffle, it’s because so many people were annoyed by a column Suella Braverman wrote in the Times about even-handed policing?
    We don't know yet.

    The big red flag for me was that we should be cautious is that the YouGov poll saw Labour's share fall even more, hence reducing their lead over the Tories.
    I suspect that if the last four polls - after the reshuffle - were showing 3-4 point gains in Tory support - rather than slumps - you would be loudly proclaiming them as evidence that you were right: the reshuffle was inspired, people love Dave, Remainers are flocking back

    But we shall see. So far so bad for Sunak and Cameron
    Put it this way, the only pollster that has been tested at a general election has seen the Labour lead reduced since the reshuffle.

    Edit - That's the afternoon thread sorted.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    edited November 2023

    Every Israeli attack on Iran strengthens the ruling regime. The presence of an outside threat is usually a great way to whip up some patriotic support for the country as is.

    The Israelis are beyond caring

    They are going to obliterate Gaza and possibly the West Bank. And maybe take on Hezbollah as well

    That’s my reading of the Israeli mood: the wave of global anti Semitism is only hardening their position. Israel must be secured, it can never be menaced again, Israel must have defensible borders with nukes ready to go if anyone tries anything serious

    It is quite scary. I guess the Israeli calculation is that they have nothing to lose and a lot to gain: and that, in the end, for all the hand wringing, none of the larger Arab/muslim nations will actually do anything

    I’m not sure even the Americans can stop the Israelis at this point
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    Nice to see Suella Braverman's strategy being called out for the fascist and unConservative bollocks it is.


    Damian Green. lol
    Always wrong Leon, LOL.

    Remember when you were against electoral reform, now look at you.
    That’s a measured change of opinion, reflecting changing circumstances over many years

    Not a howling and stupid error: like you acclaiming Sunak’s reshuffle as inspired - “I’ve got my party back”

    Leon said:


    Leon said:



    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I spoke to a pollster who last night reminded me about one of Sir John Curtice's golden rules, it takes about a week to 10 days for a news story to filter into the polls.
    Hmm

    If it’s not the reshuffle, what else do you think has caused this sudden and notable drop in Tory polling, right after the reshuffle? This is the fourth poll showing a plunge in Tory support, IIRC

    Suella Braverman spouting her bollocks, you seem to forget 70% supported Sunak sacking her.
    So by your logic in 7-10 days when the public realises with great joy that Rishi Sunak has appointed David “Brexit-loser” Cameron as unelected Foreign Secretary the Tories will regain all these new polling deficits and then add more support due to general public elation that the adults are back in charge? Is that your new prediction?
    Nope, I expect David Cameron's return to have little long term impact on the polls.

    Foreign Affairs rarely moves opinion polls.
    OK I’m confused now

    So your opinion is that the sudden drop in Tory support after the Great Reshuffle has nothing to do with the reshuffle, it’s because so many people were annoyed by a column Suella Braverman wrote in the Times about even-handed policing?
    We don't know yet.

    The big red flag for me was that we should be cautious is that the YouGov poll saw Labour's share fall even more, hence reducing their lead over the Tories.
    I suspect that if the last four polls - after the reshuffle - were showing 3-4 point gains in Tory support - rather than slumps - you would be loudly proclaiming them as evidence that you were right: the reshuffle was inspired, people love Dave, Remainers are flocking back

    But we shall see. So far so bad for Sunak and Cameron
    Put it this way, the only pollster that has been tested at a general election has seen the Labour lead reduced since the reshuffle.
    I think you’re probably deluded but you do know your onions - sometimes - so let’s see how it pans out over the coming week
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Vanilla PURGE
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859

    Mr. Eagles, there are concerns the colder temperatures on a circuit with high speeds might not necessarily work out well...

    The manhole covers seem to be the bigger issue.

    Biggest farce in F1 in America since 2005?
    Start of FP2 “will be delayed”.
  • Options
    Mr. Eagles, yeah, though this has happened in Monaco as well. And Azerbaijan.

    Not great, though.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Eagles, there are concerns the colder temperatures on a circuit with high speeds might not necessarily work out well...

    The manhole covers seem to be the bigger issue.

    Biggest farce in F1 in America since 2005?
    Start of FP2 “will be delayed”.
    Did they appoint Michael Masi to run this grand prix?
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    Inheritance tax cut: £35 billion over 5 years

    Cost of HS2 to Manchester: £36 billion
    Indeed. And over a longer timeframe with the potential for substantial return on the investment.

    Somebody has profited mightily from this decision, but not the country.

    Incidentally if he's worried about inflation surely a sane Chancellor would prioritise cutting VAT?
    I’d go for either cutting NI or raising income tax thresholds, if there is money available. Make work pay.
    No to cutting IHT

    Yes to raising income tax thresholds for the personal allowance and 40% tax rate 👍
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    If Israel does make most of Gaza uninhabitable where will the Gazans “inhabit”?!
  • Options
    SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 596

    Cutting inheritance tax for rich families but nothing else in the middle of a cost of living crisis is about the most tin-eared thing anyone could do, so of course Sunak will do it.

    He really is quite impressively bad at politics.

    Cutting inheritance tax while clamping down on benefit claimants.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    “The FIA” and “Red Flag” are trending on Twitter.
  • Options

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    Can PB Tories please read this and stop posting claims that their party favours balanced budgets?
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I was tempted to have a long week in Las Vegas for the F1 but I am glad I decided against it.
    The way the GP is going, it would have been a very long weekend…
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    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    edited November 2023

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    Can PB Tories please read this and stop posting claims that their party favours balanced budgets?
    This is one area where I think the Tory policy is potentially quite sensible on its own merits, even though politically stupid.

    IHT is one of the most easily avoided taxes. Few estates pay it. If it were 20% or so that would bring it into line with a number of other countries (including some more “socialist” ones) and might be a rare example of a tax cut that increases revenue. There would be an opportunity, which they won’t take of course, to reform CGT and succession at the same time.

    The other thing they could do is get ahead of Labour in reforming the anachronistic non dom regime, and introduce a time-limited tax exemption for wealthy foreign migrants but without the incentive to keep money offshore, alongside digital nomad visas. We might get more actual investment in then.
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I was tempted to have a long week in Las Vegas for the F1 but I am glad I decided against it.
    Is that right they have had the track prepared by the same people who do the roads around Gloucestershire?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,317
    ydoethur said:

    Iran like the UK has unelected clergy in their parliament which is shi'ite if you ask me, the UK should stop acting like a theocracy.

    That presumes that the Church of England, in the U.K., is a religious organisation.

    Is ther me any evidence of that?
    Wasn't it Dennis Skinner who said, 'Hands off the Church of England! It's all that stands between us and Christianity?'
    It is the “Church” where a contender for Archbishop was ruled out on the grounds that he was too religious.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937
    Sandpit said:

    “The FIA” and “Red Flag” are trending on Twitter.

    Yes, I get that Las Vegas is a destination. Yes, they've spent a fortune on making it an *event*.

    But the race is the main thing. It's like spending a fortune on some enticing hors d'oeuvre, in a spectacularly beautiful setting and with the the most attentive and well-dressed staff ever, only to serve a cold McDonalds for the main course. And a puddle of rancid sick for dessert.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    I had a trip down memory lane last night. Sitting in the pub with the gentlemen of the village we had a Brexit argument which is the first in about 6 years. It was refreshing in one sense to see just how much people's views havent changed.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119
    Ayatollah don't Khomenei closer or I will fall for your charms
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I was tempted to have a long week in Las Vegas for the F1 but I am glad I decided against it.
    Is that right they have had the track prepared by the same people who do the roads around Gloucestershire?
    And Edinburgh
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Cutting inheritance tax for rich families but nothing else in the middle of a cost of living crisis is about the most tin-eared thing anyone could do, so of course Sunak will do it.

    He really is quite impressively bad at politics.

    He is appalling. So is Hunt. I mean - appointing Cameron? Really??

    I actually wonder if Sunak is worse than Truss
    Tory party members certainly thought so (which implies not, as they are wrong about everything).
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    “The FIA” and “Red Flag” are trending on Twitter.

    Yes, I get that Las Vegas is a destination. Yes, they've spent a fortune on making it an *event*.

    But the race is the main thing. It's like spending a fortune on some enticing hors d'oeuvre, in a spectacularly beautiful setting and with the the most attentive and well-dressed staff ever, only to serve a cold McDonalds for the main course. And a puddle of rancid sick for dessert.
    You mean a McFlurry?
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119
    Eabhal said:

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    Inheritance tax cut: £35 billion over 5 years

    Cost of HS2 to Manchester: £36 billion

    🤔
    HS2 money is being repurposed.
  • Options
    ‘Flip-flopping’ has cost UK billions in investment cash since 2010, says report
    ...
    Britain’s economy has lost billions of pounds in investment since 2010 amid government “flip-flopping” on its industrial growth plans as it churned through 11 different economic strategies, according to [an IPPR] report.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/17/flip-flopping-cost-uk-billions-investment-cash-since-2010
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    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    Inheritance tax cut: £35 billion over 5 years

    Cost of HS2 to Manchester: £36 billion

    🤔
    HS2 money is being repurposed.
    They're using it to build a bridge that I can sell to you.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,886
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    Inheritance tax cut: £35 billion over 5 years

    Cost of HS2 to Manchester: £36 billion

    🤔
    HS2 money is being repurposed.
    That was my point.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,886

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    Inheritance tax cut: £35 billion over 5 years

    Cost of HS2 to Manchester: £36 billion

    🤔
    HS2 money is being repurposed.
    They're using it to build a bridge that I can sell to you.
    Or tram extensions (actually completed in 2014).
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,123

    Cutting inheritance tax for rich families but nothing else in the middle of a cost of living crisis is about the most tin-eared thing anyone could do, so of course Sunak will do it.

    He really is quite impressively bad at politics.

    It's a fantastic smoke and mirrors policy.

    Few will be aware that the exempt figure is already essentially £325,000 X 2 plus, plus, plus. So an exempt figure not far off £900,000 for most. Therefore around 95% of estates pay no IHT already.

    However for the great unwashed they are panicking that with a threshold of £325,000 they will be charged IHT on mum and dad's £400,000 semi. Now the threshold has increased to half a million, panic over.

    No net benefit is accrued by the hoi polloi, but in their minds they feel like they have dodged a bullet.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    Inheritance tax cut: £35 billion over 5 years

    Cost of HS2 to Manchester: £36 billion

    🤔
    HS2 money is being repurposed.
    DfT did a release this morning on spending HS2 money on filling potholes. Yes, capital spending being redirected to revenue spending.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119
    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    Inheritance tax cut: £35 billion over 5 years

    Cost of HS2 to Manchester: £36 billion

    🤔
    HS2 money is being repurposed.
    That was my point.
    Towards other transport schemes. Not to IHT.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I'm shocked. Who could have guessed that this turns into a skip fire?
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    Inheritance tax cut: £35 billion over 5 years

    Cost of HS2 to Manchester: £36 billion

    🤔
    HS2 money is being repurposed.
    They're using it to build a bridge that I can sell to you.
    A wonderfully original riposte.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,947
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    Inheritance tax cut: £35 billion over 5 years

    Cost of HS2 to Manchester: £36 billion

    🤔
    HS2 money is being repurposed.
    Nope the HS2 money doesn't exist unless it is spent because it's capital investment where the money is "borrowed"

    Cutting Day to Day Government by cutting Inheritance tax just reduces the money available to pay for day to day expenditure - say on road repairs, staff to quickly deal with asylum, staff to staff hospitals / courts / schools.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,317
    Leon said:

    Every Israeli attack on Iran strengthens the ruling regime. The presence of an outside threat is usually a great way to whip up some patriotic support for the country as is.

    The Israelis are beyond caring

    They are going to obliterate Gaza and possibly the West Bank. And maybe take on Hezbollah as well

    That’s my reading of the Israeli mood: the wave of global anti Semitism is only hardening their position. Israel must be secured, it can never be menaced again, Israel must have defensible borders with nukes ready to go if anyone tries anything serious

    It is quite scary. I guess the Israeli calculation is that they have nothing to lose and a lot to gain: and that, in the end, for all the hand wringing, none of the larger Arab/muslim nations will actually do anything

    I’m not sure even the Americans can stop the Israelis at this point
    I wonder who will argue the following (disgusting) explanation -

    That the perpetual state of existential war since 1948 has forced the Israelis (who have no moral agency in this) to attack their oppressors (the Arabic world) ever harder.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,123
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    Inheritance tax cut: £35 billion over 5 years

    Cost of HS2 to Manchester: £36 billion

    🤔
    HS2 money is being repurposed.
    If only the cash existed in the first place.

    It's worthy of a slogan on the side of a bus.
  • Options
    Vegas:
    Circuit looks crap
    Circus is painfully embarrassing
    Pit building thrown together
    Streets repaved but the cars are wholly different to Indycar and are sucking the manhole covers out of the concrete
    Highly compressed timescale - race HAS to be done at local primetime on Saturday night
    They're going to be driving effectively on (what for an F1 car is) ice

    I'm away this weekend so will be watching it all on catch-up. Not sure we will get a race, or if we do, for how long it will last before the inevitable 14 car pileup.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800
    Taz said:
    In his History of the Jews, Paul Johnson made the point that student anti-semitism has been a thing, pretty well since universities were founded.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,469
    Leon said:

    Nice to see Suella Braverman's strategy being called out for the fascist and unConservative bollocks it is.


    Damian Green. lol
    Ad hominem yawn.
    Address his point.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,635

    Cutting inheritance tax for rich families but nothing else in the middle of a cost of living crisis is about the most tin-eared thing anyone could do, so of course Sunak will do it.

    He really is quite impressively bad at politics.

    It's a fantastic smoke and mirrors policy.

    Few will be aware that the exempt figure is already essentially £325,000 X 2 plus, plus, plus. So an exempt figure not far off £900,000 for most. Therefore around 95% of estates pay no IHT already.

    However for the great unwashed they are panicking that with a threshold of £325,000 they will be charged IHT on mum and dad's £400,000 semi. Now the threshold has increased to half a million, panic over.

    No net benefit is accrued by the hoi polloi, but in their minds they feel like they have dodged a bullet.
    Won't save them anything, as they will still have to get formal valuations, fill in that enormous form with lots of subsidiary forms, etc., or more often pay someone £250 per hour to do it for them, sometimes badly in my experience.

    That will only change if the boundary for full disclosure and enumeration fo assets is also moved up.

    But it's a policy which will really benefit the well off, especially those with parents with the South who were clueless financially or caught out by the capital rise in house prices and too timid or too incapax to get the legalities sorted out.
  • Options
    Mr. Taz, +5 NTNON points.

    Mr. Pioneers, proof is in the pudding, but I think the track itself looks alright. Problem is the temperature. And annoying the locals. And ridiculous pricing. And, apparently, not checking the manhole covers.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,634

    Leon said:


    Leon said:



    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I spoke to a pollster who last night reminded me about one of Sir John Curtice's golden rules, it takes about a week to 10 days for a news story to filter into the polls.
    Hmm

    If it’s not the reshuffle, what else do you think has caused this sudden and notable drop in Tory polling, right after the reshuffle? This is the fourth poll showing a plunge in Tory support, IIRC

    Suella Braverman spouting her bollocks, you seem to forget 70% supported Sunak sacking her.
    So by your logic in 7-10 days when the public realises with great joy that Rishi Sunak has appointed David “Brexit-loser” Cameron as unelected Foreign Secretary the Tories will regain all these new polling deficits and then add more support due to general public elation that the adults are back in charge? Is that your new prediction?
    Nope, I expect David Cameron's return to have little long term impact on the polls.

    Foreign Affairs rarely moves opinion polls.
    OK I’m confused now

    So your opinion is that the sudden drop in Tory support after the Great Reshuffle has nothing to do with the reshuffle, it’s because so many people were annoyed by a column Suella Braverman wrote in the Times about even-handed policing?
    We don't know yet.

    The big red flag for me was that we should be cautious is that the YouGov poll saw Labour's share fall even more, hence reducing their lead over the Tories.
    I suspect that if the last four polls - after the reshuffle - were showing 3-4 point gains in Tory support - rather than slumps - you would be loudly proclaiming them as evidence that you were right: the reshuffle was inspired, people love Dave, Remainers are flocking back

    But we shall see. So far so bad for Sunak and Cameron
    Put it this way, the only pollster that has been tested at a general election has seen the Labour lead reduced since the reshuffle.

    Edit - That's the afternoon thread sorted.
    Yes, the Tories got a post-reshuffle boost of -2% in that YouGov.
  • Options

    Leon said:


    Leon said:



    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I spoke to a pollster who last night reminded me about one of Sir John Curtice's golden rules, it takes about a week to 10 days for a news story to filter into the polls.
    Hmm

    If it’s not the reshuffle, what else do you think has caused this sudden and notable drop in Tory polling, right after the reshuffle? This is the fourth poll showing a plunge in Tory support, IIRC

    Suella Braverman spouting her bollocks, you seem to forget 70% supported Sunak sacking her.
    So by your logic in 7-10 days when the public realises with great joy that Rishi Sunak has appointed David “Brexit-loser” Cameron as unelected Foreign Secretary the Tories will regain all these new polling deficits and then add more support due to general public elation that the adults are back in charge? Is that your new prediction?
    Nope, I expect David Cameron's return to have little long term impact on the polls.

    Foreign Affairs rarely moves opinion polls.
    OK I’m confused now

    So your opinion is that the sudden drop in Tory support after the Great Reshuffle has nothing to do with the reshuffle, it’s because so many people were annoyed by a column Suella Braverman wrote in the Times about even-handed policing?
    We don't know yet.

    The big red flag for me was that we should be cautious is that the YouGov poll saw Labour's share fall even more, hence reducing their lead over the Tories.
    I suspect that if the last four polls - after the reshuffle - were showing 3-4 point gains in Tory support - rather than slumps - you would be loudly proclaiming them as evidence that you were right: the reshuffle was inspired, people love Dave, Remainers are flocking back

    But we shall see. So far so bad for Sunak and Cameron
    Put it this way, the only pollster that has been tested at a general election has seen the Labour lead reduced since the reshuffle.

    Edit - That's the afternoon thread sorted.
    Yes, the Tories got a post-reshuffle boost of -2% in that YouGov.
    You're missing the bigger picture.

    The Labour lead was slashed by 1% since the Return of the King.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,634

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    How about pay off some of the debt rather than tax cuts for the wealthy?
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,886
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    Inheritance tax cut: £35 billion over 5 years

    Cost of HS2 to Manchester: £36 billion

    🤔
    HS2 money is being repurposed.
    That was my point.
    Towards other transport schemes. Not to IHT.
    The contractor is the same firm that came up with this F1 circuit.

    SYNERGY
  • Options

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    How about pay off some of the debt rather than tax cuts for the wealthy?
    The wealthy have paid more since the GFC as George Osborne said those with the broadest shoulders should take the burden, it is time we were rewarded.

    Am really looking forward to defending this tax cut for the wealthiest 3.7% whilst benefits are cuts.

    The optics are great.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Every Israeli attack on Iran strengthens the ruling regime. The presence of an outside threat is usually a great way to whip up some patriotic support for the country as is.

    The Israelis are beyond caring

    They are going to obliterate Gaza and possibly the West Bank. And maybe take on Hezbollah as well

    That’s my reading of the Israeli mood: the wave of global anti Semitism is only hardening their position. Israel must be secured, it can never be menaced again, Israel must have defensible borders with nukes ready to go if anyone tries anything serious

    It is quite scary. I guess the Israeli calculation is that they have nothing to lose and a lot to gain: and that, in the end, for all the hand wringing, none of the larger Arab/muslim nations will actually do anything

    I’m not sure even the Americans can stop the Israelis at this point
    You have a point about the global politics driving the local thinking. Not only has Israel found itself with precious few friends on this one, Jews in every part of the world are getting abuse and worse.

    Israel was created out the back of WWII, where someone tried to exterminate them all. A Jewish homeland, safe and secure for Jews is difficult to argue against. Thanks to how it was created, its neighbours and its own actions, Israel is neither safe nor secure.

    But it could be. The peace route. Or the war route. They will consider that they have tried peace. That failed. War has been brought to them again. That nutjob Netanyahu is probably the worst leader they could have right now, but you can see how they could be leaning towards pushing for a comprehensive military victory.

    There is a horror scenario. Israel sweeps the arabs out of the levant, just as the arabs and their fellow travellers marching in London and elsewhere chant about sweeping Palestine of the Jews. There would be international condemnation. Rightly. Israel would have to build a wall. And repel anyone threatening its new border.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,634

    Leon said:


    Leon said:



    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I spoke to a pollster who last night reminded me about one of Sir John Curtice's golden rules, it takes about a week to 10 days for a news story to filter into the polls.
    Hmm

    If it’s not the reshuffle, what else do you think has caused this sudden and notable drop in Tory polling, right after the reshuffle? This is the fourth poll showing a plunge in Tory support, IIRC

    Suella Braverman spouting her bollocks, you seem to forget 70% supported Sunak sacking her.
    So by your logic in 7-10 days when the public realises with great joy that Rishi Sunak has appointed David “Brexit-loser” Cameron as unelected Foreign Secretary the Tories will regain all these new polling deficits and then add more support due to general public elation that the adults are back in charge? Is that your new prediction?
    Nope, I expect David Cameron's return to have little long term impact on the polls.

    Foreign Affairs rarely moves opinion polls.
    OK I’m confused now

    So your opinion is that the sudden drop in Tory support after the Great Reshuffle has nothing to do with the reshuffle, it’s because so many people were annoyed by a column Suella Braverman wrote in the Times about even-handed policing?
    We don't know yet.

    The big red flag for me was that we should be cautious is that the YouGov poll saw Labour's share fall even more, hence reducing their lead over the Tories.
    I suspect that if the last four polls - after the reshuffle - were showing 3-4 point gains in Tory support - rather than slumps - you would be loudly proclaiming them as evidence that you were right: the reshuffle was inspired, people love Dave, Remainers are flocking back

    But we shall see. So far so bad for Sunak and Cameron
    Put it this way, the only pollster that has been tested at a general election has seen the Labour lead reduced since the reshuffle.

    Edit - That's the afternoon thread sorted.
    Yes, the Tories got a post-reshuffle boost of -2% in that YouGov.
    You're missing the bigger picture.

    The Labour lead was slashed by 1% since the Return of the King.
    Nothing to do with Labour's Gaza problems headlining the news, oh no.

    What about the Techne poll out today?

    Four post-reshuffle polls now, showing Labour lead changes of: +2%, +5%, -1%, +3%. Do the math.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    Inheritance tax cut: £35 billion over 5 years

    Cost of HS2 to Manchester: £36 billion

    🤔
    HS2 money is being repurposed.
    Nope the HS2 money doesn't exist unless it is spent because it's capital investment where the money is "borrowed"

    Cutting Day to Day Government by cutting Inheritance tax just reduces the money available to pay for day to day expenditure - say on road repairs, staff to quickly deal with asylum, staff to staff hospitals / courts / schools.
    Or on overpaid middle managers, diversity officers, the Northern Ireland grant, farming subsidies, foreign aid ...
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,123

    Leon said:


    Leon said:



    Leon said:



    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I spoke to a pollster who last night reminded me about one of Sir John Curtice's golden rules, it takes about a week to 10 days for a news story to filter into the polls.
    Hmm

    If it’s not the reshuffle, what else do you think has caused this sudden and notable drop in Tory polling, right after the reshuffle? This is the fourth poll showing a plunge in Tory support, IIRC

    Suella Braverman spouting her bollocks, you seem to forget 70% supported Sunak sacking her.
    So by your logic in 7-10 days when the public realises with great joy that Rishi Sunak has appointed David “Brexit-loser” Cameron as unelected Foreign Secretary the Tories will regain all these new polling deficits and then add more support due to general public elation that the adults are back in charge? Is that your new prediction?
    Nope, I expect David Cameron's return to have little long term impact on the polls.

    Foreign Affairs rarely moves opinion polls.
    OK I’m confused now

    So your opinion is that the sudden drop in Tory support after the Great Reshuffle has nothing to do with the reshuffle, it’s because so many people were annoyed by a column Suella Braverman wrote in the Times about even-handed policing?
    We don't know yet.

    The big red flag for me was that we should be cautious is that the YouGov poll saw Labour's share fall even more, hence reducing their lead over the Tories.
    I suspect that if the last four polls - after the reshuffle - were showing 3-4 point gains in Tory support - rather than slumps - you would be loudly proclaiming them as evidence that you were right: the reshuffle was inspired, people love Dave, Remainers are flocking back

    But we shall see. So far so bad for Sunak and Cameron
    Put it this way, the only pollster that has been tested at a general election has seen the Labour lead reduced since the reshuffle.

    Edit - That's the afternoon thread sorted.
    Yes, the Tories got a post-reshuffle boost of -2% in that YouGov.
    You're missing the bigger picture.

    The Labour lead was slashed by 1% since the Return of the King.
    HY has hacked TSE's account again.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,469
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reshuffle polling going about as well as F1 in Las Vegas?

    I spoke to a pollster who last night reminded me about one of Sir John Curtice's golden rules, it takes about a week to 10 days for a news story to filter into the polls.
    Hmm

    If it’s not the reshuffle, what else do you think has caused this sudden and notable drop in Tory polling, right after the reshuffle? This is the fourth poll showing a plunge in Tory support, IIRC

    The events that led up to it, probably.
    Once the reshuffle fully factors in to polls, it's not impossible the Tories' support falls further.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    Comment from another forum:

    “Massive hype followed by quick and expensive disappointment just sounds like a standard night in Vegas to be honest.”
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119

    Few will see the inheritance tax cut but pretty much everyone will feel the council tax increase.

    Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is considering plans to halve the rate of inheritance tax and cut taxes for small businesses in his autumn statement.

    The Treasury has been told by official forecasters that it has far more “fiscal headroom” because of rising tax revenues and falling borrowing costs.

    It has also been reported that council tax will rise by up to £120 a year for the average house, because the Treasury will allow local authorities to increase their bills by up to 5 per cent a year.

    Improved public finances mean that government has more than £20 billion of headroom at Wednesday’s autumn statement, compared with £6.5 billion at the time of March’s budget. While some of the headroom will be retained as a “cushion”, Hunt is considering an array of tax cuts amid mounting pressure from Tory MPs.

    One option includes halving the rate of inheritance tax, which is charged at 40 per cent for estates worth more than £325,000 with an extra £175,000 allowance towards a main residence if it is passed to children or grandchildren.

    The Treasury is considering plans to cut the rate to 30 per cent or 20 per cent, while it is also examining proposals to increase the thresholds for the tax. The Tories are considering a proposal to abolish inheritance tax for its election manifesto next year.

    Hunt is said to favour cutting inheritance tax rather than income tax because it would not have a big impact on inflation. It is also much cheaper to cut. Abolishing inheritance tax would cost about £7 billion a year, but cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13.7 billion a year.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-inheritance-tax-plan-small-businesses-vat-autumn-statement-07kbmj0gf

    How about pay off some of the debt rather than tax cuts for the wealthy?
    How about reversing the changes made to tax and investment income which will affect people with even a modest amount of savings.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,012
    Leon said:

    Nice to see Suella Braverman's strategy being called out for the fascist and unConservative bollocks it is.


    Damian Green. lol
    Is he wrong?

    Your inner fascist is poking out
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,012
    ydoethur said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Doethur, worth remembering Edward I did go on crusade, (he was in the Holy Land when he became king, and was perhaps the first medieval monarch to become king without immediately having a coronation).

    Indeed. I thought of adding that in but I couldn't think of a subtle pun that would fit and I didn't want anything like the one in the thread header...
    Come on! The header was one of @TSE ’s better efforts. As a teacher you must know how important it is to encourage people

  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    edited November 2023
    Today I’m due to attend a speed awareness course for incurring the wrath of 20mph Khan.

    And it reminds me about that little Braverman story I’d forgotten until now: that she tried to get civil servants to sort her a private speed awareness appointment.

    Woman of the people that she is.
This discussion has been closed.