Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
I doubt it. Not because the seams aren't there to exploit - but because she's bad at it. An interesting outside bet along those lines might be Priti Patel. Much longer odds. Will be less associated with the coming defeat, is a Boris loyalist (so could maybe do a deal to gain his support), and pretty much has similar politics without the tendency to cross the line from 'hardliner' to crazy.
And there will be a lot of Tory MPs for whom the next leadership election will be entirely about stopping Braverman at any cost - although the more likely beneficiary of that may be Badenoch who you sense is the right-winger Tory moderates could stomach more easily.
Priti Patel has been writing about tax, and tax and sovereignty and globalism, in the Telegraph. I do not have the sense she is on manoeuvres though but give it time.
Anyone here still think Sweden, which did not lock down, got it wrong? They relied on people adjusting their own behaviour in light of the known threat.
Not altogether surprising the graph is suspect given it's published by the CATO institute, which among other things shilled for Donald Trump in 2016 (although a number of its members have had second thoughts since) advocates the privatisation of the US education system and is one of the leading organisations involved in climate change denial.
You think the data in the graph wrong because of who published it? Really? The data came from Statistics Sweden (like our ONS), as it says in the footnote.
Do I think a far-right organisation that has a reputation for falsifying scientific data in other fields and whose figures are easily demonstrated to be incorrect might perhaps be untrustworthy? Including not telling the truth about where it got the figures from?
Yes.
Not actually hard, is it?
Edit - incidentally you completely mischaracterised my comment. I pointed out the graph was wrong. Then I suggested a reason why it might be wrong. Your argument implies I was looking at it the other way round.
This photo will become iconic. It shows Palestinian protestors surrounding the poppy sellers in Charing X yesterday. All of Britain in some weird nutshell
The poppy stall seem more bemused, bored and irritated than frightened in that snap.
Yes, from that one image, which is devoid of wider context of course, the front of the poppy stall is not blocked. I'd imagine it is more the repetitive chants that irritate the sellers. What is remarkable is the number of people in that photo taking selfies.
I also find it hearteningly and amusingly British that the protesters have left a gap around the stall out of apparent politeness.
I can assure you the reaction of 80% of Brits to that photo will not be a chuckle and “oh that’s hearteningly and amusingly British”
No, it will be same as those manning the stall: A baffled, mildly irritated sigh.
One of my favourite things in Britain is the street stalls in the High St, or in Leicester by the clock tower. These vary from anti-vaxxers, to animal rights, to Trotskyites to the Hari Krishnas, Muslims and Pentacostalists in Leicester, and often several at the same time. Yet there is no conflict between them nor police presence required. Most shoppers walk by them without a glance, but they turn out rain or shine week after week.
It says a lot about British values that this is unremarkable.
Le Pen was regularly hitting 28% in the years before 2022.
This is for her party at EU elections
Historically Le Pen’s party has done well at EU elex. Like UKIP in the UK the French use euro-elex as a protest vehicle. But 28% with the next party on 20% would be emphatically their best result yet
The Gaza conflict - and consequent protests/terror in France - assuredly feeds her narrative
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
I doubt it. Not because the seams aren't there to exploit - but because she's bad at it. An interesting outside bet along those lines might be Priti Patel. Much longer odds. Will be less associated with the coming defeat, is a Boris loyalist (so could maybe do a deal to gain his support), and pretty much has similar politics without the tendency to cross the line from 'hardliner' to crazy.
And there will be a lot of Tory MPs for whom the next leadership election will be entirely about stopping Braverman at any cost - although the more likely beneficiary of that may be Badenoch who you sense is the right-winger Tory moderates could stomach more easily.
Priti Patel has been writing about tax, and tax and sovereignty and globalism, in the Telegraph. I do not have the sense she is on manoeuvres though but give it time.
Maybe the Braverman outing is a cunning plan to make people think Priti isn't so bad after all?
Scrub that theory, it would depend on some selflessness from Suella.
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
It would take a big turnaround in her likeability. Even among Tory members she scores below Badenoch, Cleverly and (last time I checked) even Mordaunt. Among the general public she’s below Patel. She would also need a coherent economic vision. She’s showed no interest in economics to date. Unlike some of her “anti woke” rivals like Badenoch.
With one exception I can’t think of a PM who’s won a general election and who wasn’t at least slightly likeable. That one exception being Thatcher of course.
Thatcher got in due to Britain’s economy being in an abject state after a decade of oil price rises and industrial unrest. She had an economic vision, albeit a divisive one. If a Tory wins in 2029 I think it’ll be the economy that does it. Just as if Trump wins next year it’ll be the economy (and Le Pen in France).
Is Braverman collegiate enough to command the support of MPs and a shadow cabinet? No evidence of that yet.
I’m currently thinking Cleverly for next leader.
Governments don't get much credit for a good economy, but they certainly get the blame for a bad one. And an economy can be in quite decent shape, but the public can still think it's in bad shape.
Le Pen was regularly hitting 28% in the years before 2022.
This is for her party at EU elections
Historically Le Pen’s party has done well at EU elex. Like UKIP in the UK the French use euro-elex as a protest vehicle. But 28% with the next party on 20% would be emphatically their best result yet
The Gaza conflict - and consequent protests/terror in France - assuredly feeds her narrative
Her party has now made itself dominant on the right of French politics. If France goes right, then she wins.
Really surprises me that so many in that poll think the restrictions weren’t strict enough. In hindsight too. What did they want, Chinese style lockdowns?
I agree with others who say the lockdowns brought out the snitches and school prefects in many, particularly certain police forces who seem to have taken the scientific advice that Covid was spread by fun and were clearing people off deserted beaches and buzzing them on moorlands.
Obviously we needed some restrictions in 2020 and 21 before the vaccines arrived. But we also needed common sense, and in retrospect the closure of schools almost certainly did way more harm than good.
People do not want to hear it, and I am sure the Covid enquiry won't pursue it, but the data from 2020 shows that the first peak had already passed by the time lockdown was introduced.
At the time, the virus took around 7 days to become symptomatic, the requirement for medical intervention was (on average) a further 10 days away, whilst the median stay in hospital before discharge or death was 7 days.
Government data for England shows deaths from Covid peaking between 8th (the actual peak day) and 12th April. As this is just 13 to 17 days after lockdown was introduced, it clearly shows that lockdown was not the driving factor in controlling the disease.
In short, lockdown could prove to be the most costly mistake this country has made in my lifetime.
It's a lot more involved than that, because the time to death from infection and/or symptoms was very variable
If you're taking action to reduce infections significantly, then an individual time to death can be 25 days and the population time about 16 days, for example (because you're overlaying a distribution, not a fixed time). In addition, if you get R down less, you'll decrease less, and remain at a high loading for a considerable time.
(This stuff has been analysed quite a bit, which is gratifying).
In the Spectator article, the chap who was giving evidence to the enquiry pointed out the above. He was saying that the evidence suggested that people “self-locked down” prior to the legal imposition.
There is evidence of this in transport activity etc.
This was also the point made by our own @rcs1000 - that lockdowns in law or not is not the point, since people self isolate as things get worse.
My perfectly healthy 20-something neighbours were very grateful for the summer of sunbathing on furlough cheques, but this hasn't translated into long-term support for the Conservatives - tens of billions squandered at the wrong time in the electoral cycle that our kids will be paying back.
The government's strategy of terrifying people about a virus with a measly 99.8% recovery rate (>99.9% for under 70s) blew up in its face. On this, they deserve everything they get, though of course Labour would have been far worse, and indeed were in Wales, for no obvious benefit. At least the Conservatives took the right decision on Omicron though. Starmer would probably still have us in lockdown. That alone should disqualify him from ever becoming PM.
Really surprises me that so many in that poll think the restrictions weren’t strict enough. In hindsight too. What did they want, Chinese style lockdowns?
I agree with others who say the lockdowns brought out the snitches and school prefects in many, particularly certain police forces who seem to have taken the scientific advice that Covid was spread by fun and were clearing people off deserted beaches and buzzing them on moorlands.
Obviously we needed some restrictions in 2020 and 21 before the vaccines arrived. But we also needed common sense, and in retrospect the closure of schools almost certainly did way more harm than good.
People do not want to hear it, and I am sure the Covid enquiry won't pursue it, but the data from 2020 shows that the first peak had already passed by the time lockdown was introduced.
At the time, the virus took around 7 days to become symptomatic, the requirement for medical intervention was (on average) a further 10 days away, whilst the median stay in hospital before discharge or death was 7 days.
Government data for England shows deaths from Covid peaking between 8th (the actual peak day) and 12th April. As this is just 13 to 17 days after lockdown was introduced, it clearly shows that lockdown was not the driving factor in controlling the disease.
In short, lockdown could prove to be the most costly mistake this country has made in my lifetime.
It's a lot more involved than that, because the time to death from infection and/or symptoms was very variable
If you're taking action to reduce infections significantly, then an individual time to death can be 25 days and the population time about 16 days, for example (because you're overlaying a distribution, not a fixed time). In addition, if you get R down less, you'll decrease less, and remain at a high loading for a considerable time.
(This stuff has been analysed quite a bit, which is gratifying).
In the Spectator article, the chap who was giving evidence to the enquiry pointed out the above. He was saying that the evidence suggested that people “self-locked down” prior to the legal imposition.
There is evidence of this in transport activity etc.
This was also the point made by our own @rcs1000 - that lockdowns in law or not is not the point, since people self isolate as things get worse.
In March 2020 before the lockdown started we had a skyrocketing DNA* rate in our our outpatient clinics. Barely 25% were showing by the time of the announcement.
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
It would take a big turnaround in her likeability. Even among Tory members she scores below Badenoch, Cleverly and (last time I checked) even Mordaunt. Among the general public she’s below Patel. She would also need a coherent economic vision. She’s showed no interest in economics to date. Unlike some of her “anti woke” rivals like Badenoch.
With one exception I can’t think of a PM who’s won a general election and who wasn’t at least slightly likeable. That one exception being Thatcher of course.
Thatcher got in due to Britain’s economy being in an abject state after a decade of oil price rises and industrial unrest. She had an economic vision, albeit a divisive one. If a Tory wins in 2029 I think it’ll be the economy that does it. Just as if Trump wins next year it’ll be the economy (and Le Pen in France).
Is Braverman collegiate enough to command the support of MPs and a shadow cabinet? No evidence of that yet.
I’m currently thinking Cleverly for next leader.
Governments don't get much credit for a good economy, but they certainly get the blame for a bad one. And an economy can be in quite decent shape, but the public can still think it's in bad shape.
See the current massive disconnect between perception and overall economic performance in the US.
Yes. Meh. You don’t even keep up with your own doomssaying in order to drive clicks to your employer.
Netanyahu suspends Israeli minister for saying dropping nuclear bomb on Gaza 'one of the possibilities' Benjamin Netanyahu said the statement by junior minister Amihai Eliyahu was "not based in reality", while other politicians denounced him as "irresponsible".
Yes. Meh. You don’t even keep up with your own doomssaying in order to drive clicks to your employer.
Netanyahu suspends Israeli minister for saying dropping nuclear bomb on Gaza 'one of the possibilities' Benjamin Netanyahu said the statement by junior minister Amihai Eliyahu was "not based in reality", while other politicians denounced him as "irresponsible".
I'm not a Great Barrington-ite by any means, but I think that you could achieve 90% of the reduction in R with significantly fewer restrictions, and with many other things merely being recommendations.
My only caveat with this is that the government were far too lax with restrictions at the border, where restrictions could have had the greatest impact.
It's absurd that the government resisted for so long putting in quarantine measures at the border, but took it upon themselves to regulate what people could do in their homes.
But anyway. The problem now is that we're not putting in place the measures that would enable us to reduce the impact of a future pandemic. There's so much that could be done with air filtration in schools and hospitals.
Yes. Meh. You don’t even keep up with your own doomssaying in order to drive clicks to your employer.
Netanyahu suspends Israeli minister for saying dropping nuclear bomb on Gaza 'one of the possibilities' Benjamin Netanyahu said the statement by junior minister Amihai Eliyahu was "not based in reality", while other politicians denounced him as "irresponsible".
Yes. Meh. You don’t even keep up with your own doomssaying in order to drive clicks to your employer.
Netanyahu suspends Israeli minister for saying dropping nuclear bomb on Gaza 'one of the possibilities' Benjamin Netanyahu said the statement by junior minister Amihai Eliyahu was "not based in reality", while other politicians denounced him as "irresponsible".
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
It would take a big turnaround in her likeability. Even among Tory members she scores below Badenoch, Cleverly and (last time I checked) even Mordaunt. Among the general public she’s below Patel. She would also need a coherent economic vision. She’s showed no interest in economics to date. Unlike some of her “anti woke” rivals like Badenoch.
With one exception I can’t think of a PM who’s won a general election and who wasn’t at least slightly likeable. That one exception being Thatcher of course.
Thatcher got in due to Britain’s economy being in an abject state after a decade of oil price rises and industrial unrest. She had an economic vision, albeit a divisive one. If a Tory wins in 2029 I think it’ll be the economy that does it. Just as if Trump wins next year it’ll be the economy (and Le Pen in France).
Is Braverman collegiate enough to command the support of MPs and a shadow cabinet? No evidence of that yet.
I’m currently thinking Cleverly for next leader.
Governments don't get much credit for a good economy, but they certainly get the blame for a bad one. And an economy can be in quite decent shape, but the public can still think it's in bad shape.
See the current massive disconnect between perception and overall economic performance in the US.
By most measures, I'd say Biden has been a pretty decent President (the big exception being the Afghanistan debacle), yet his rating is just 40% (which is quite good for a British PM, but poor for a US President) and he could easily lose to the Orange One.
Yes. Meh. You don’t even keep up with your own doomssaying in order to drive clicks to your employer.
Netanyahu suspends Israeli minister for saying dropping nuclear bomb on Gaza 'one of the possibilities' Benjamin Netanyahu said the statement by junior minister Amihai Eliyahu was "not based in reality", while other politicians denounced him as "irresponsible".
Er, I discussed his dismissal about an hour later. Do keep up
In more fake news Hamas is now claiming the dog-in-tunnel story is bogus. Either it’s a training video (most likely) or from another conflict (possibly Turkey v PKK)
My sense is that Hamas are correct here. Don’t often say that
This war is unreal. You have to deeply scrutinise every image/video to see if it’s genuine. Or AI. Or sourced elsewhere
Yes. Meh. You don’t even keep up with your own doomssaying in order to drive clicks to your employer.
Netanyahu suspends Israeli minister for saying dropping nuclear bomb on Gaza 'one of the possibilities' Benjamin Netanyahu said the statement by junior minister Amihai Eliyahu was "not based in reality", while other politicians denounced him as "irresponsible".
I wonder whether that's because Netanyahu doesn't want to nuke Gaza or because he's angry at a minister finally admitting Israel has nukes?
It's odd that it never occurred to the minister that fallout does not respect borders.
As an aside, it's even odder that Israel simply relied upon a wire fence to defend itself from invasion from Gaza.
Rather more than a wire fence. The Israelis has spent $USD 1 billion on their border infrastructure recently. Even at HS2 prices that is more than chickenwire.
Yes. Meh. You don’t even keep up with your own doomssaying in order to drive clicks to your employer.
Netanyahu suspends Israeli minister for saying dropping nuclear bomb on Gaza 'one of the possibilities' Benjamin Netanyahu said the statement by junior minister Amihai Eliyahu was "not based in reality", while other politicians denounced him as "irresponsible".
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
But, but, but…that would mean we would have to survive: the plot line of THREADS; ALIENS invading; China seeding another far more virulent VIRUS; AND AI taking OVER the world.
Which, as a betting man, you should know is impossible.
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
But, but, but…that would mean we would have to survive: the plot line of THREADS; ALIENS invading; China seeding another far more virulent VIRUS; AND AI taking OVER the world.
Which, as a betting man, you should know is impossible.
Tells us a lot more about Hitchens and his readers, really. Heneghan had the ear of the government repeatedly as per his own testimony. He was brought in in September to advise. His predictions were so wrong he ended up deleting his Twitter history for 2020, his claims in September were in variance with reality, and the case he made was so weak that even Johnson, who'd been parroting Toby Young's lines internally at the time, was unconvinced by him.
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
But, but, but…that would mean we would have to survive: the plot line of THREADS; ALIENS invading; China seeding another far more virulent VIRUS; AND AI taking OVER the world.
Which, as a betting man, you should know is impossible.
Today I’m feeling cheerier
Hmmm…I think my list might be preferable to PM Braverman.
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
Naah. For the hardcore little Englander right, she isn't properly English. And in calling for tents to be criminalised she is directly attacking our homeless veterans that so exercises these people on social media.
What is clearly brewing is a reckoning for the crank anti-semite left and nut-job anti-semite radical muslims. They think that the people of Britain will back them, and won't notice (like that moron Laura Pidcock) who is organising the marches they are going on. Not true.
There is no good side and bad side to the Israel Palestine mess - both can be both. And whatever is going on over there, we have people over here increasingly scared and threatened. British people. In Britain. In 2023. In fear - with good reason - for being Jewish.
This has to be stopped. Because whatever the rights and wrongs of Israel Gaza, nobody is making British people be in fear because they are muslim. No hate groups abusing and attacking muslims over Hamas. As usual the jews are singled out.
Of course you could easily be right. I’ve sketched out my thinking re Braverman upthread. Its a fool’s errand making predix two elections ahead but fun, nonetheless
Incidentally I have a personal question - which, of course, you have no obligation to answer
Your firm convictions on Hamas/Gaza are slightly surprising. Are you Jewish? Or married to a Jewish person, etc?
No ma’am. And worth noting that my firm conviction in Gaza is that the Palestinian people have as much right to peace and security as the Israelis do.
When I was younger and stupider I sided more on the Palestinian side than the Israeli side. Then Israel withdrew from Gaza and all the occupation criticisms no longer applied. Then Gaza elected Hamas as their government. Then we had ISIS going at it elsewhere.
Some of the things Israeli governments do are terrible. Petty vindictive idiocy driven by their religious crazies. I dislike religious crazies whatever the faith. But only the Muslim crazies seem set on genocide, and that is where the line has to be drawn. Especially when Jews have already suffered one.
If we want a 2 state solution then Hamas need to be removed. As Hamas are actively trying to have their own people killed I am not remotely interested in anything they say. Their cause is an outrage.
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
Naah. For the hardcore little Englander right, she isn't properly English. And in calling for tents to be criminalised she is directly attacking our homeless veterans that so exercises these people on social media.
What is clearly brewing is a reckoning for the crank anti-semite left and nut-job anti-semite radical muslims. They think that the people of Britain will back them, and won't notice (like that moron Laura Pidcock) who is organising the marches they are going on. Not true.
There is no good side and bad side to the Israel Palestine mess - both can be both. And whatever is going on over there, we have people over here increasingly scared and threatened. British people. In Britain. In 2023. In fear - with good reason - for being Jewish.
This has to be stopped. Because whatever the rights and wrongs of Israel Gaza, nobody is making British people be in fear because they are muslim. No hate groups abusing and attacking muslims over Hamas. As usual the jews are singled out.
Of course you could easily be right. I’ve sketched out my thinking re Braverman upthread. Its a fool’s errand making predix two elections ahead but fun, nonetheless
Incidentally I have a personal question - which, of course, you have no obligation to answer
Your firm convictions on Hamas/Gaza are slightly surprising. Are you Jewish? Or married to a Jewish person, etc?
No ma’am. And worth noting that my firm conviction in Gaza is that the Palestinian people have as much right to peace and security as the Israelis do.
When I was younger and stupider I sided more on the Palestinian side than the Israeli side. Then Israel withdrew from Gaza and all the occupation criticisms no longer applied. Then Gaza elected Hamas as their government. Then we had ISIS going at it elsewhere.
Some of the things Israeli governments do are terrible. Petty vindictive idiocy driven by their religious crazies. I dislike religious crazies whatever the faith. But only the Muslim crazies seem set on genocide, and that is where the line has to be drawn. Especially when Jews have already suffered one.
If we want a 2 state solution then Hamas need to be removed. As Hamas are actively trying to have their own people killed I am not remotely interested in anything they say. Their cause is an outrage.
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
Naah. For the hardcore little Englander right, she isn't properly English. And in calling for tents to be criminalised she is directly attacking our homeless veterans that so exercises these people on social media.
What is clearly brewing is a reckoning for the crank anti-semite left and nut-job anti-semite radical muslims. They think that the people of Britain will back them, and won't notice (like that moron Laura Pidcock) who is organising the marches they are going on. Not true.
There is no good side and bad side to the Israel Palestine mess - both can be both. And whatever is going on over there, we have people over here increasingly scared and threatened. British people. In Britain. In 2023. In fear - with good reason - for being Jewish.
This has to be stopped. Because whatever the rights and wrongs of Israel Gaza, nobody is making British people be in fear because they are muslim. No hate groups abusing and attacking muslims over Hamas. As usual the jews are singled out.
Of course you could easily be right. I’ve sketched out my thinking re Braverman upthread. Its a fool’s errand making predix two elections ahead but fun, nonetheless
Incidentally I have a personal question - which, of course, you have no obligation to answer
Your firm convictions on Hamas/Gaza are slightly surprising. Are you Jewish? Or married to a Jewish person, etc?
No ma’am. And worth noting that my firm conviction in Gaza is that the Palestinian people have as much right to peace and security as the Israelis do.
When I was younger and stupider I sided more on the Palestinian side than the Israeli side. Then Israel withdrew from Gaza and all the occupation criticisms no longer applied. Then Gaza elected Hamas as their government. Then we had ISIS going at it elsewhere.
Some of the things Israeli governments do are terrible. Petty vindictive idiocy driven by their religious crazies. I dislike religious crazies whatever the faith. But only the Muslim crazies seem set on genocide, and that is where the line has to be drawn. Especially when Jews have already suffered one.
If we want a 2 state solution then Hamas need to be removed. As Hamas are actively trying to have their own people killed I am not remotely interested in anything they say. Their cause is an outrage.
Although I disagree, you have laid your position out well.
Where do the settlers in the West Bank factor into your thinking? Are they not a provocation?
(As an aside, I know I ask you lots about this - it’s because I respect your position and am interested in it - I’m not intending to start an argument).
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
I doubt it. Not because the seams aren't there to exploit - but because she's bad at it. An interesting outside bet along those lines might be Priti Patel. Much longer odds. Will be less associated with the coming defeat, is a Boris loyalist (so could maybe do a deal to gain his support), and pretty much has similar politics without the tendency to cross the line from 'hardliner' to crazy.
And there will be a lot of Tory MPs for whom the next leadership election will be entirely about stopping Braverman at any cost - although the more likely beneficiary of that may be Badenoch who you sense is the right-winger Tory moderates could stomach more easily.
Priti Patel has been writing about tax, and tax and sovereignty and globalism, in the Telegraph. I do not have the sense she is on manoeuvres though but give it time.
Maybe the Braverman outing is a cunning plan to make people think Priti isn't so bad after all?
Scrub that theory, it would depend on some selflessness from Suella.
Oh they're both awful. Just thinking if the scenario Leon's discussing does play out, I think she maybe a more likely beneficiary - not being a total incompetent.
Plus there's the Boris factor - whoever he endorses starts at a big advantage. While I can see him endorsing Patel as a return for her loyalty, I can't see him doing that for Braverman. She launched her 2019 campaign before he resigned and he has no personal fondness for - as he clearly did with Patel - "form a square around the Prittster" etc.
Just seems very odd to me that Braverman's about 5/1 to be next Tory leader and Patel is 50/1 when they will both be making a similar pitch - but the latter has advantages the former does not. People just seem to have forgotten that if Tory MPs/members want to elect an Asian woman who is a hardline former home secretary and annoys liberals and left-wingers, there's another option who might have a very influential backer and who isn't bound to a government that looks likely to get a shellacking at the polls.
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
I doubt it. Not because the seams aren't there to exploit - but because she's bad at it. An interesting outside bet along those lines might be Priti Patel. Much longer odds. Will be less associated with the coming defeat, is a Boris loyalist (so could maybe do a deal to gain his support), and pretty much has similar politics without the tendency to cross the line from 'hardliner' to crazy.
And there will be a lot of Tory MPs for whom the next leadership election will be entirely about stopping Braverman at any cost - although the more likely beneficiary of that may be Badenoch who you sense is the right-winger Tory moderates could stomach more easily.
Priti Patel has been writing about tax, and tax and sovereignty and globalism, in the Telegraph. I do not have the sense she is on manoeuvres though but give it time.
Maybe the Braverman outing is a cunning plan to make people think Priti isn't so bad after all?
Scrub that theory, it would depend on some selflessness from Suella.
Oh they're both awful. Just thinking if the scenario Leon's discussing does play out, I think she maybe a more likely beneficiary - not being a total incompetent.
Plus there's the Boris factor - whoever he endorses starts at a big advantage. While I can see him endorsing Patel as a return for her loyalty, I can't see him doing that for Braverman. She launched her 2019 campaign before he resigned and he has no personal fondness for - as he clearly did with Patel - "form a square around the Prittster" etc.
Just seems very odd to me that Braverman's about 5/1 to be next Tory leader and Patel is 50/1 when they will both be making a similar pitch - but the latter has advantages the former does not. People just seem to have forgotten that if Tory MPs/members want to elect an Asian woman who is a hardline former home secretary and annoys liberals and left-wingers, there's another option who might have a very influential backer and who isn't bound to a government that looks likely to get a shellacking at the polls.
Looks like it is time to resuscitate my #Priti4Leader nonsense.
President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election, suffering from enormous doubts about his age and deep dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and a host of other issues, new polls by The New York Times and Siena College have found.
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
It would take a big turnaround in her likeability. Even among Tory members she scores below Badenoch, Cleverly and (last time I checked) even Mordaunt. Among the general public she’s below Patel. She would also need a coherent economic vision. She’s showed no interest in economics to date. Unlike some of her “anti woke” rivals like Badenoch.
With one exception I can’t think of a PM who’s won a general election and who wasn’t at least slightly likeable. That one exception being Thatcher of course.
Thatcher got in due to Britain’s economy being in an abject state after a decade of oil price rises and industrial unrest. She had an economic vision, albeit a divisive one. If a Tory wins in 2029 I think it’ll be the economy that does it. Just as if Trump wins next year it’ll be the economy (and Le Pen in France).
Is Braverman collegiate enough to command the support of MPs and a shadow cabinet? No evidence of that yet.
I’m currently thinking Cleverly for next leader.
Governments don't get much credit for a good economy, but they certainly get the blame for a bad one. And an economy can be in quite decent shape, but the public can still think it's in bad shape.
See the current massive disconnect between perception and overall economic performance in the US.
Likewise in the UK.
And I suspect this is caused by the wealth/debt divide.
Having a job and earning good money doesn't satisfy if you're stuck in debt and with little hope of building your own financial wealth.
Which is the situation for many younger people.
In particular large parts of the younger suburban, southern middle classes will be increasingly shafted by a combination of debt, unaffordable housing, globalisation and AI.
Yes. Meh. You don’t even keep up with your own doomssaying in order to drive clicks to your employer.
Netanyahu suspends Israeli minister for saying dropping nuclear bomb on Gaza 'one of the possibilities' Benjamin Netanyahu said the statement by junior minister Amihai Eliyahu was "not based in reality", while other politicians denounced him as "irresponsible".
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
Naah. For the hardcore little Englander right, she isn't properly English. And in calling for tents to be criminalised she is directly attacking our homeless veterans that so exercises these people on social media.
What is clearly brewing is a reckoning for the crank anti-semite left and nut-job anti-semite radical muslims. They think that the people of Britain will back them, and won't notice (like that moron Laura Pidcock) who is organising the marches they are going on. Not true.
There is no good side and bad side to the Israel Palestine mess - both can be both. And whatever is going on over there, we have people over here increasingly scared and threatened. British people. In Britain. In 2023. In fear - with good reason - for being Jewish.
This has to be stopped. Because whatever the rights and wrongs of Israel Gaza, nobody is making British people be in fear because they are muslim. No hate groups abusing and attacking muslims over Hamas. As usual the jews are singled out.
Of course you could easily be right. I’ve sketched out my thinking re Braverman upthread. Its a fool’s errand making predix two elections ahead but fun, nonetheless
Incidentally I have a personal question - which, of course, you have no obligation to answer
Your firm convictions on Hamas/Gaza are slightly surprising. Are you Jewish? Or married to a Jewish person, etc?
No ma’am. And worth noting that my firm conviction in Gaza is that the Palestinian people have as much right to peace and security as the Israelis do.
When I was younger and stupider I sided more on the Palestinian side than the Israeli side. Then Israel withdrew from Gaza and all the occupation criticisms no longer applied. Then Gaza elected Hamas as their government. Then we had ISIS going at it elsewhere.
Some of the things Israeli governments do are terrible. Petty vindictive idiocy driven by their religious crazies. I dislike religious crazies whatever the faith. But only the Muslim crazies seem set on genocide, and that is where the line has to be drawn. Especially when Jews have already suffered one.
If we want a 2 state solution then Hamas need to be removed. As Hamas are actively trying to have their own people killed I am not remotely interested in anything they say. Their cause is an outrage.
Although I disagree, you have laid your position out well.
Where do the settlers in the West Bank factor into your thinking? Are they not a provocation?
(As an aside, I know I ask you lots about this - it’s because I respect your position and am interested in it - I’m not intending to start an argument).
West Bank settlements? Please see my comments about religious crazies. Though we also have the reality that Israel has cleared areas of settler crazies previously so it could do so again (providing the criminal Bibi and the crazies are removed from government).
Israel has shown it will withdraw settlers for peace. Yet the supposedly righteous chanting “shame on you” at kids who went to McDonalds demand that Israel be swept from the map
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
I doubt it. Not because the seams aren't there to exploit - but because she's bad at it. An interesting outside bet along those lines might be Priti Patel. Much longer odds. Will be less associated with the coming defeat, is a Boris loyalist (so could maybe do a deal to gain his support), and pretty much has similar politics without the tendency to cross the line from 'hardliner' to crazy.
And there will be a lot of Tory MPs for whom the next leadership election will be entirely about stopping Braverman at any cost - although the more likely beneficiary of that may be Badenoch who you sense is the right-winger Tory moderates could stomach more easily.
Priti Patel has been writing about tax, and tax and sovereignty and globalism, in the Telegraph. I do not have the sense she is on manoeuvres though but give it time.
Maybe the Braverman outing is a cunning plan to make people think Priti isn't so bad after all?
Scrub that theory, it would depend on some selflessness from Suella.
Oh they're both awful. Just thinking if the scenario Leon's discussing does play out, I think she maybe a more likely beneficiary - not being a total incompetent.
Plus there's the Boris factor - whoever he endorses starts at a big advantage. While I can see him endorsing Patel as a return for her loyalty, I can't see him doing that for Braverman. She launched her 2019 campaign before he resigned and he has no personal fondness for - as he clearly did with Patel - "form a square around the Prittster" etc.
Just seems very odd to me that Braverman's about 5/1 to be next Tory leader and Patel is 50/1 when they will both be making a similar pitch - but the latter has advantages the former does not. People just seem to have forgotten that if Tory MPs/members want to elect an Asian woman who is a hardline former home secretary and annoys liberals and left-wingers, there's another option who might have a very influential backer and who isn't bound to a government that looks likely to get a shellacking at the polls.
Looks like it is time to resuscitate my #Priti4Leader nonsense.
She seems to have gone quiet locally. Newsletter put out in one (small) part of the constituency but not a lot else.
Really surprises me that so many in that poll think the restrictions weren’t strict enough. In hindsight too. What did they want, Chinese style lockdowns?
I agree with others who say the lockdowns brought out the snitches and school prefects in many, particularly certain police forces who seem to have taken the scientific advice that Covid was spread by fun and were clearing people off deserted beaches and buzzing them on moorlands.
Obviously we needed some restrictions in 2020 and 21 before the vaccines arrived. But we also needed common sense, and in retrospect the closure of schools almost certainly did way more harm than good.
There's many, many people who always want more restrictions on other people.
I must confess that I’m coming to the view that this is a war where, if I had to support either side, I’d pick neither!
Matthew Parris wrote an at-the-time controversial column a few years ago arguing that we spend far too much time and energy worrying about the Arab-Israeli conflict and we should leave them to it.
For historical reasons this is of course practically impossible, but I do think it takes up an inordinate amount of Western political oxygen compared with just about any other conflict, including Russia-Ukraine. Out of all proportion to the scale of the conflict. Think of the others in recent years in the same broad neighbourhood: Yemen, Syria, Nagorno Karabakh, Libya. Some of which - notably Libya - the West was as involved in at the start as anything to do with Palestine.
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
Naah. For the hardcore little Englander right, she isn't properly English. And in calling for tents to be criminalised she is directly attacking our homeless veterans that so exercises these people on social media.
What is clearly brewing is a reckoning for the crank anti-semite left and nut-job anti-semite radical muslims. They think that the people of Britain will back them, and won't notice (like that moron Laura Pidcock) who is organising the marches they are going on. Not true.
There is no good side and bad side to the Israel Palestine mess - both can be both. And whatever is going on over there, we have people over here increasingly scared and threatened. British people. In Britain. In 2023. In fear - with good reason - for being Jewish.
This has to be stopped. Because whatever the rights and wrongs of Israel Gaza, nobody is making British people be in fear because they are muslim. No hate groups abusing and attacking muslims over Hamas. As usual the jews are singled out.
Of course you could easily be right. I’ve sketched out my thinking re Braverman upthread. Its a fool’s errand making predix two elections ahead but fun, nonetheless
Incidentally I have a personal question - which, of course, you have no obligation to answer
Your firm convictions on Hamas/Gaza are slightly surprising. Are you Jewish? Or married to a Jewish person, etc?
No ma’am. And worth noting that my firm conviction in Gaza is that the Palestinian people have as much right to peace and security as the Israelis do.
When I was younger and stupider I sided more on the Palestinian side than the Israeli side. Then Israel withdrew from Gaza and all the occupation criticisms no longer applied. Then Gaza elected Hamas as their government. Then we had ISIS going at it elsewhere.
Some of the things Israeli governments do are terrible. Petty vindictive idiocy driven by their religious crazies. I dislike religious crazies whatever the faith. But only the Muslim crazies seem set on genocide, and that is where the line has to be drawn. Especially when Jews have already suffered one.
If we want a 2 state solution then Hamas need to be removed. As Hamas are actively trying to have their own people killed I am not remotely interested in anything they say. Their cause is an outrage.
Although I disagree, you have laid your position out well.
Where do the settlers in the West Bank factor into your thinking? Are they not a provocation?
(As an aside, I know I ask you lots about this - it’s because I respect your position and am interested in it - I’m not intending to start an argument).
West Bank settlements? Please see my comments about religious crazies. Though we also have the reality that Israel has cleared areas of settler crazies previously so it could do so again (providing the criminal Bibi and the crazies are removed from government).
Israel has shown it will withdraw settlers for peace. Yet the supposedly righteous chanting “shame on you” at kids who went to McDonalds demand that Israel be swept from the map
Don’t the settlers come back though? Seem to recall a report from the Negev to that effect.
(For the avoidance of doubt that’s not intended to be pro Palestinian and certainly not pro Hamas.)
I must confess that I’m coming to the view that this is a war where, if I had to support either side, I’d pick neither!
Matthew Parris wrote an at-the-time controversial column a few years ago arguing that we spend far too much time and energy worrying about the Arab-Israeli conflict and we should leave them to it.
For historical reasons this is of course practically impossible, but I do think it takes up an inordinate amount of Western political oxygen compared with just about any other conflict, including Russia-Ukraine. Out of all proportion to the scale of the conflict. Think of the others in recent years in the same broad neighbourhood: Yemen, Syria, Nagorno Karabakh, Libya. Some of which - notably Libya - the West was as involved in at the start as anything to do with Palestine.
One of the advantages of the post oil world will be not being beholden to the murderous clown shows who run so many petro-states.
Yes. Meh. You don’t even keep up with your own doomssaying in order to drive clicks to your employer.
Netanyahu suspends Israeli minister for saying dropping nuclear bomb on Gaza 'one of the possibilities' Benjamin Netanyahu said the statement by junior minister Amihai Eliyahu was "not based in reality", while other politicians denounced him as "irresponsible".
President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election, suffering from enormous doubts about his age and deep dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and a host of other issues, new polls by The New York Times and Siena College have found.
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
Naah. For the hardcore little Englander right, she isn't properly English. And in calling for tents to be criminalised she is directly attacking our homeless veterans that so exercises these people on social media.
What is clearly brewing is a reckoning for the crank anti-semite left and nut-job anti-semite radical muslims. They think that the people of Britain will back them, and won't notice (like that moron Laura Pidcock) who is organising the marches they are going on. Not true.
There is no good side and bad side to the Israel Palestine mess - both can be both. And whatever is going on over there, we have people over here increasingly scared and threatened. British people. In Britain. In 2023. In fear - with good reason - for being Jewish.
This has to be stopped. Because whatever the rights and wrongs of Israel Gaza, nobody is making British people be in fear because they are muslim. No hate groups abusing and attacking muslims over Hamas. As usual the jews are singled out.
Of course you could easily be right. I’ve sketched out my thinking re Braverman upthread. Its a fool’s errand making predix two elections ahead but fun, nonetheless
Incidentally I have a personal question - which, of course, you have no obligation to answer
Your firm convictions on Hamas/Gaza are slightly surprising. Are you Jewish? Or married to a Jewish person, etc?
No ma’am. And worth noting that my firm conviction in Gaza is that the Palestinian people have as much right to peace and security as the Israelis do.
When I was younger and stupider I sided more on the Palestinian side than the Israeli side. Then Israel withdrew from Gaza and all the occupation criticisms no longer applied. Then Gaza elected Hamas as their government. Then we had ISIS going at it elsewhere.
Some of the things Israeli governments do are terrible. Petty vindictive idiocy driven by their religious crazies. I dislike religious crazies whatever the faith. But only the Muslim crazies seem set on genocide, and that is where the line has to be drawn. Especially when Jews have already suffered one.
If we want a 2 state solution then Hamas need to be removed. As Hamas are actively trying to have their own people killed I am not remotely interested in anything they say. Their cause is an outrage.
Although I disagree, you have laid your position out well.
Where do the settlers in the West Bank factor into your thinking? Are they not a provocation?
(As an aside, I know I ask you lots about this - it’s because I respect your position and am interested in it - I’m not intending to start an argument).
West Bank settlements? Please see my comments about religious crazies. Though we also have the reality that Israel has cleared areas of settler crazies previously so it could do so again (providing the criminal Bibi and the crazies are removed from government).
Israel has shown it will withdraw settlers for peace. Yet the supposedly righteous chanting “shame on you” at kids who went to McDonalds demand that Israel be swept from the map
The complicating factor there is that when Israel withdrew from Gaza Sharon at the same time accelerated the settler process in the West Bank.
His logic was that it was the West Bank he actually wanted, and removing Gaza from the equation gave Israel a stronger demographic advantage if it went for annexation.
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
It would take a big turnaround in her likeability. Even among Tory members she scores below Badenoch, Cleverly and (last time I checked) even Mordaunt. Among the general public she’s below Patel. She would also need a coherent economic vision. She’s showed no interest in economics to date. Unlike some of her “anti woke” rivals like Badenoch.
With one exception I can’t think of a PM who’s won a general election and who wasn’t at least slightly likeable. That one exception being Thatcher of course.
Thatcher got in due to Britain’s economy being in an abject state after a decade of oil price rises and industrial unrest. She had an economic vision, albeit a divisive one. If a Tory wins in 2029 I think it’ll be the economy that does it. Just as if Trump wins next year it’ll be the economy (and Le Pen in France).
Is Braverman collegiate enough to command the support of MPs and a shadow cabinet? No evidence of that yet.
I’m currently thinking Cleverly for next leader.
Cleverly would he great. Lenny Henry would be able to play him every time Channel 4 do a comedy dramatisation of a government clusterfeck.
Yes. Meh. You don’t even keep up with your own doomssaying in order to drive clicks to your employer.
Netanyahu suspends Israeli minister for saying dropping nuclear bomb on Gaza 'one of the possibilities' Benjamin Netanyahu said the statement by junior minister Amihai Eliyahu was "not based in reality", while other politicians denounced him as "irresponsible".
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
Naah. For the hardcore little Englander right, she isn't properly English. And in calling for tents to be criminalised she is directly attacking our homeless veterans that so exercises these people on social media.
What is clearly brewing is a reckoning for the crank anti-semite left and nut-job anti-semite radical muslims. They think that the people of Britain will back them, and won't notice (like that moron Laura Pidcock) who is organising the marches they are going on. Not true.
There is no good side and bad side to the Israel Palestine mess - both can be both. And whatever is going on over there, we have people over here increasingly scared and threatened. British people. In Britain. In 2023. In fear - with good reason - for being Jewish.
This has to be stopped. Because whatever the rights and wrongs of Israel Gaza, nobody is making British people be in fear because they are muslim. No hate groups abusing and attacking muslims over Hamas. As usual the jews are singled out.
Of course you could easily be right. I’ve sketched out my thinking re Braverman upthread. Its a fool’s errand making predix two elections ahead but fun, nonetheless
Incidentally I have a personal question - which, of course, you have no obligation to answer
Your firm convictions on Hamas/Gaza are slightly surprising. Are you Jewish? Or married to a Jewish person, etc?
No ma’am. And worth noting that my firm conviction in Gaza is that the Palestinian people have as much right to peace and security as the Israelis do.
When I was younger and stupider I sided more on the Palestinian side than the Israeli side. Then Israel withdrew from Gaza and all the occupation criticisms no longer applied. Then Gaza elected Hamas as their government. Then we had ISIS going at it elsewhere.
Some of the things Israeli governments do are terrible. Petty vindictive idiocy driven by their religious crazies. I dislike religious crazies whatever the faith. But only the Muslim crazies seem set on genocide, and that is where the line has to be drawn. Especially when Jews have already suffered one.
If we want a 2 state solution then Hamas need to be removed. As Hamas are actively trying to have their own people killed I am not remotely interested in anything they say. Their cause is an outrage.
Although I disagree, you have laid your position out well.
Where do the settlers in the West Bank factor into your thinking? Are they not a provocation?
(As an aside, I know I ask you lots about this - it’s because I respect your position and am interested in it - I’m not intending to start an argument).
West Bank settlements? Please see my comments about religious crazies. Though we also have the reality that Israel has cleared areas of settler crazies previously so it could do so again (providing the criminal Bibi and the crazies are removed from government).
Israel has shown it will withdraw settlers for peace. Yet the supposedly righteous chanting “shame on you” at kids who went to McDonalds demand that Israel be swept from the map
Yes, sorry, I tried to edit my post when I realised you had pretty much already answered my question.
I must confess that I’m coming to the view that this is a war where, if I had to support either side, I’d pick neither!
Matthew Parris wrote an at-the-time controversial column a few years ago arguing that we spend far too much time and energy worrying about the Arab-Israeli conflict and we should leave them to it.
For historical reasons this is of course practically impossible, but I do think it takes up an inordinate amount of Western political oxygen compared with just about any other conflict, including Russia-Ukraine. Out of all proportion to the scale of the conflict. Think of the others in recent years in the same broad neighbourhood: Yemen, Syria, Nagorno Karabakh, Libya. Some of which - notably Libya - the West was as involved in at the start as anything to do with Palestine.
One of the advantages of the post oil world will be not being beholden to the murderous clown shows who run so many petro-states.
Another reason why the Arab-Israeli conflict is such an aberration. No oil there (well not quite none but you know what I mean). So I suspect well after we’re no longer importing hydrocarbons we’ll still be seeing Palestine flags on peoples social media posts.
The one geopolitically salient angle on this is Hezbollah and by extension Iran.
I must confess that I’m coming to the view that this is a war where, if I had to support either side, I’d pick neither!
Matthew Parris wrote an at-the-time controversial column a few years ago arguing that we spend far too much time and energy worrying about the Arab-Israeli conflict and we should leave them to it.
For historical reasons this is of course practically impossible, but I do think it takes up an inordinate amount of Western political oxygen compared with just about any other conflict, including Russia-Ukraine. Out of all proportion to the scale of the conflict. Think of the others in recent years in the same broad neighbourhood: Yemen, Syria, Nagorno Karabakh, Libya. Some of which - notably Libya - the West was as involved in at the start as anything to do with Palestine.
One of the advantages of the post oil world will be not being beholden to the murderous clown shows who run so many petro-states.
I must confess that I’m coming to the view that this is a war where, if I had to support either side, I’d pick neither!
Matthew Parris wrote an at-the-time controversial column a few years ago arguing that we spend far too much time and energy worrying about the Arab-Israeli conflict and we should leave them to it.
For historical reasons this is of course practically impossible, but I do think it takes up an inordinate amount of Western political oxygen compared with just about any other conflict, including Russia-Ukraine. Out of all proportion to the scale of the conflict. Think of the others in recent years in the same broad neighbourhood: Yemen, Syria, Nagorno Karabakh, Libya. Some of which - notably Libya - the West was as involved in at the start as anything to do with Palestine.
One of the advantages of the post oil world will be not being beholden to the murderous clown shows who run so many petro-states.
Another reason why the Arab-Israeli conflict is such an aberration. No oil there (well not quite none but you know what I mean). So I suspect well after we’re no longer importing hydrocarbons we’ll still be seeing Palestine flags on peoples social media posts.
The one geopolitically salient angle on this is Hezbollah and by extension Iran.
I must confess that I’m coming to the view that this is a war where, if I had to support either side, I’d pick neither!
Matthew Parris wrote an at-the-time controversial column a few years ago arguing that we spend far too much time and energy worrying about the Arab-Israeli conflict and we should leave them to it.
For historical reasons this is of course practically impossible, but I do think it takes up an inordinate amount of Western political oxygen compared with just about any other conflict, including Russia-Ukraine. Out of all proportion to the scale of the conflict. Think of the others in recent years in the same broad neighbourhood: Yemen, Syria, Nagorno Karabakh, Libya. Some of which - notably Libya - the West was as involved in at the start as anything to do with Palestine.
One of the advantages of the post oil world will be not being beholden to the murderous clown shows who run so many petro-states.
Another reason why the Arab-Israeli conflict is such an aberration. No oil there (well not quite none but you know what I mean). So I suspect well after we’re no longer importing hydrocarbons we’ll still be seeing Palestine flags on peoples social media posts.
The one geopolitically salient angle on this is Hezbollah and by extension Iran.
After 1989, a whole swathe of left wing agitation in the West collapsed without the USSR funding for it.
When time is called on the Arab petro-states, one of the first things to go will be the river of money they spend on supporting/buying off fundies both at home and around the world.
The weekly Perun, an assessment of Iran's Military Strategy and Impact, just arrived.
Completely ignoring the Youtube optimums as ever - it's basically a one hour Powerpoint on video with a very well-informed commentary. He starts off with Darius the Great and the Greeks.
Iran's Military Strategy & Power Projection - Drones, Proxies & Production under Sanctions.
Just seems very odd to me that Braverman's about 5/1 to be next Tory leader and Patel is 50/1 when they will both be making a similar pitch - but the latter has advantages the former does not. People just seem to have forgotten that if Tory MPs/members want to elect an Asian woman who is a hardline former home secretary and annoys liberals and left-wingers, there's another option who might have a very influential backer and who isn't bound to a government that looks likely to get a shellacking at the polls.
Swella doesn't even act like part of the government and has been running her leadership campaign for months. For that reason, and the soundings from my 81 year old median age focus group at the WI, she isn't going to get as spattered as the rest of the fucking scum when they have stand in front of the diarrhea filled trombone at the election.
Yes. Meh. You don’t even keep up with your own doomssaying in order to drive clicks to your employer.
Netanyahu suspends Israeli minister for saying dropping nuclear bomb on Gaza 'one of the possibilities' Benjamin Netanyahu said the statement by junior minister Amihai Eliyahu was "not based in reality", while other politicians denounced him as "irresponsible".
‘Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.’
Ok, neck out time: I reckon the roiling culture wars over Gaza might eventually give us, after the next election but one, prime minister Suella Braverman
Naah. For the hardcore little Englander right, she isn't properly English. And in calling for tents to be criminalised she is directly attacking our homeless veterans that so exercises these people on social media.
What is clearly brewing is a reckoning for the crank anti-semite left and nut-job anti-semite radical muslims. They think that the people of Britain will back them, and won't notice (like that moron Laura Pidcock) who is organising the marches they are going on. Not true.
There is no good side and bad side to the Israel Palestine mess - both can be both. And whatever is going on over there, we have people over here increasingly scared and threatened. British people. In Britain. In 2023. In fear - with good reason - for being Jewish.
This has to be stopped. Because whatever the rights and wrongs of Israel Gaza, nobody is making British people be in fear because they are muslim. No hate groups abusing and attacking muslims over Hamas. As usual the jews are singled out.
Of course you could easily be right. I’ve sketched out my thinking re Braverman upthread. Its a fool’s errand making predix two elections ahead but fun, nonetheless
Incidentally I have a personal question - which, of course, you have no obligation to answer
Your firm convictions on Hamas/Gaza are slightly surprising. Are you Jewish? Or married to a Jewish person, etc?
No ma’am. And worth noting that my firm conviction in Gaza is that the Palestinian people have as much right to peace and security as the Israelis do.
When I was younger and stupider I sided more on the Palestinian side than the Israeli side. Then Israel withdrew from Gaza and all the occupation criticisms no longer applied. Then Gaza elected Hamas as their government. Then we had ISIS going at it elsewhere.
Some of the things Israeli governments do are terrible. Petty vindictive idiocy driven by their religious crazies. I dislike religious crazies whatever the faith. But only the Muslim crazies seem set on genocide, and that is where the line has to be drawn. Especially when Jews have already suffered one.
If we want a 2 state solution then Hamas need to be removed. As Hamas are actively trying to have their own people killed I am not remotely interested in anything they say. Their cause is an outrage.
Anyone who could get over 300 in less than a day would have done well in a limited overs match.
Although that scorecard doesn't show it, Hammond actually tended to score more quickly than Bradman. In 1933 when he took the record for highest test score off Bradman he scored his runs in just over five hours.
Admittedly, he was playing New Zealand on a small ground with a pop gun attack.
Maybe we should still be in lockdown now if Labour voters think it wasn't strict enough. After all, just one life saved would be worth it.
The people who think it was not strict enough were pretty much evenly spread across all ages and demographics, and while more Lab voters favored a stricter approach, it was a common view of Tory voters too. Indeed more than thought it too strict.
‘Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.’
‘Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.’
I must confess that I’m coming to the view that this is a war where, if I had to support either side, I’d pick neither!
Matthew Parris wrote an at-the-time controversial column a few years ago arguing that we spend far too much time and energy worrying about the Arab-Israeli conflict and we should leave them to it.
For historical reasons this is of course practically impossible, but I do think it takes up an inordinate amount of Western political oxygen compared with just about any other conflict, including Russia-Ukraine. Out of all proportion to the scale of the conflict. Think of the others in recent years in the same broad neighbourhood: Yemen, Syria, Nagorno Karabakh, Libya. Some of which - notably Libya - the West was as involved in at the start as anything to do with Palestine.
One of the advantages of the post oil world will be not being beholden to the murderous clown shows who run so many petro-states.
Another reason why the Arab-Israeli conflict is such an aberration. No oil there (well not quite none but you know what I mean). So I suspect well after we’re no longer importing hydrocarbons we’ll still be seeing Palestine flags on peoples social media posts.
The one geopolitically salient angle on this is Hezbollah and by extension Iran.
No. Turns out the Jews were right, all along
All this wanking on about Palestine (but not wanking on about the Uigurs, the Rohingya, Yemen, etc) proves that it’s just a proxy for anti-Semitism. It really is. Scratch 80% of the protestors deep enough and they will eventually bleed Jew-hatred. Guaranteed. The last few weeks have shown this beyond reasonable doubt
However, this does not exonerate Israel or its governments in terms of politics. It has often done things which, quite rationally, evoke hatred in its enemies
‘Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.’
I'm not keen on this survey question. Its 'strictness' is a poor metric for judging the government's handling of the pandemic. Let's face facts, it was a shambles. They were far less competent in general and in many specific areas than we had a right to expect. However this doesn't mean they were 'too strict' or 'not strict enough'. Indeed the 'strictness' was about right. I'd have answered that way ('about right') yet as I say I think they messed up the pandemic quite badly. Even after cutting the relevant slack for being hit out of the blue with such a monumental crisis I score them way down. 4/10 max. But about right on the strictness.
I must confess that I’m coming to the view that this is a war where, if I had to support either side, I’d pick neither!
Matthew Parris wrote an at-the-time controversial column a few years ago arguing that we spend far too much time and energy worrying about the Arab-Israeli conflict and we should leave them to it.
For historical reasons this is of course practically impossible, but I do think it takes up an inordinate amount of Western political oxygen compared with just about any other conflict, including Russia-Ukraine. Out of all proportion to the scale of the conflict. Think of the others in recent years in the same broad neighbourhood: Yemen, Syria, Nagorno Karabakh, Libya. Some of which - notably Libya - the West was as involved in at the start as anything to do with Palestine.
One of the advantages of the post oil world will be not being beholden to the murderous clown shows who run so many petro-states.
Another reason why the Arab-Israeli conflict is such an aberration. No oil there (well not quite none but you know what I mean). So I suspect well after we’re no longer importing hydrocarbons we’ll still be seeing Palestine flags on peoples social media posts.
The one geopolitically salient angle on this is Hezbollah and by extension Iran.
No. Turns out the Jews were right, all along
All this wanking on about Palestine (but not wanking on about the Uigurs, the Rohingya, Yemen, etc) proves that it’s just a proxy for anti-Semitism. It really is. Scratch 80% of the protestors deep enough and they will eventually bleed Jew-hatred. Guaranteed. The last few weeks have shown this beyond reasonable doubt
However, this does not exonerate Israel or its governments in terms of politics. It has often done things which, quite rationally, evoke hatred in its enemies
Compare with the silence on what Pakistan is now doing to Afghan refugees.
I must confess that I’m coming to the view that this is a war where, if I had to support either side, I’d pick neither!
Matthew Parris wrote an at-the-time controversial column a few years ago arguing that we spend far too much time and energy worrying about the Arab-Israeli conflict and we should leave them to it.
For historical reasons this is of course practically impossible, but I do think it takes up an inordinate amount of Western political oxygen compared with just about any other conflict, including Russia-Ukraine. Out of all proportion to the scale of the conflict. Think of the others in recent years in the same broad neighbourhood: Yemen, Syria, Nagorno Karabakh, Libya. Some of which - notably Libya - the West was as involved in at the start as anything to do with Palestine.
One of the advantages of the post oil world will be not being beholden to the murderous clown shows who run so many petro-states.
Another reason why the Arab-Israeli conflict is such an aberration. No oil there (well not quite none but you know what I mean). So I suspect well after we’re no longer importing hydrocarbons we’ll still be seeing Palestine flags on peoples social media posts.
The one geopolitically salient angle on this is Hezbollah and by extension Iran.
No. Turns out the Jews were right, all along
All this wanking on about Palestine (but not wanking on about the Uigurs, the Rohingya, Yemen, etc) proves that it’s just a proxy for anti-Semitism. It really is. Scratch 80% of the protestors deep enough and they will eventually bleed Jew-hatred. Guaranteed. The last few weeks have shown this beyond reasonable doubt
However, this does not exonerate Israel or its governments in terms of politics. It has often done things which, quite rationally, evoke hatred in its enemies
Compare with the silence on what Pakistan is now doing to Afghan refugees.
It’s demarcation. Bit like when the PIRA shot and crippled Catholic kids they caught joyriding. But got bent out of shape if anyone else did it.
I must confess that I’m coming to the view that this is a war where, if I had to support either side, I’d pick neither!
Matthew Parris wrote an at-the-time controversial column a few years ago arguing that we spend far too much time and energy worrying about the Arab-Israeli conflict and we should leave them to it.
For historical reasons this is of course practically impossible, but I do think it takes up an inordinate amount of Western political oxygen compared with just about any other conflict, including Russia-Ukraine. Out of all proportion to the scale of the conflict. Think of the others in recent years in the same broad neighbourhood: Yemen, Syria, Nagorno Karabakh, Libya. Some of which - notably Libya - the West was as involved in at the start as anything to do with Palestine.
One of the advantages of the post oil world will be not being beholden to the murderous clown shows who run so many petro-states.
Another reason why the Arab-Israeli conflict is such an aberration. No oil there (well not quite none but you know what I mean). So I suspect well after we’re no longer importing hydrocarbons we’ll still be seeing Palestine flags on peoples social media posts.
The one geopolitically salient angle on this is Hezbollah and by extension Iran.
No. Turns out the Jews were right, all along
All this wanking on about Palestine (but not wanking on about the Uigurs, the Rohingya, Yemen, etc) proves that it’s just a proxy for anti-Semitism. It really is. Scratch 80% of the protestors deep enough and they will eventually bleed Jew-hatred. Guaranteed. The last few weeks have shown this beyond reasonable doubt
However, this does not exonerate Israel or its governments in terms of politics. It has often done things which, quite rationally, evoke hatred in its enemies
Compare with the silence on what Pakistan is now doing to Afghan refugees.
Yes. Anyone who denies this, now, is a fool or a liar. It’s anti-Semitism which fuels the Palestinian cause beyond all reason, the mask has finally slipped
Perhaps it should not be a surprise that the most ancient hatred never went away; it’s plagued humanity for at least 2000 years, like some horrible genetic curse, like the Habsburg chin of racism, we were deluding ourselves that we’d killed it off (along with 6m Jews) post 1945
We just re-imported it. Like ash die-back, or rabies
I'm not keen on this survey question. Its 'strictness' is a poor metric for judging the government's handling of the pandemic. Let's face facts, it was a shambles. They were far less competent in general and in many specific areas than we had a right to expect. However this doesn't mean they were 'too strict' or 'not strict enough'. Indeed the 'strictness' was about right. I'd have answered that way ('about right') yet as I say I think they messed up the pandemic quite badly. Even after cutting the relevant slack for being hit out of the blue with such a monumental crisis I score them way down. 4/10 max. But about right on the strictness.
Are you referring to 'the government' ie Boris and his gang or 'government' ie the public sector leadership in particular and public sector in general.
I'd say that the only groups to come out with their reputation enhanced were:
the supermarkets the vaccine sector the Treasury (much to my surprise)
As to the strictness of restrictions IMO they were too strict on some things and not strict enough on others.
‘Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.’
I used to get very worried about what’s happening in the USA . At this point I just begin to care less . If Americans don’t care about flushing their democracy down the toilet then why should we . Half the country are conspiracy theorist , gun obsessed nutjobs . It’s very unlikely Trump will start a war that drags in the UK so a crumb of comfort there .I’ve just tuned out , I’m more concerned about our own election and removing the Tories.
Anyone who could get over 300 in less than a day would have done well in a limited overs match.
Although that scorecard doesn't show it, Hammond actually tended to score more quickly than Bradman. In 1933 when he took the record for highest test score off Bradman he scored his runs in just over five hours.
Admittedly, he was playing New Zealand on a small ground with a pop gun attack.
Wally Hammond was Kim Philby's favourite cricketer so you must be a Russian spy. Is that how this works?
‘Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.’
‘Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.’
Honestly, what difference will it make to people in the UK? Slightly less warry foreign policy and slightly less coherent economic policy.
There will be some residual shame when Starmer has to lick DJT where he shits but the British people are well acculturated to that particular spasm of discomforting embarrassment.
The details on that US polling are even worse for Biden than the headlines. He’s heading for defeat
If he has a shred of decency he will step back and let a younger candidate take the reins, defeating Trump is more important than his career. He somehow needs to ensure it won’t be Harris
But I bet Biden will stumble on. He’s old and vain; it’s a bad mix
I must confess that I’m coming to the view that this is a war where, if I had to support either side, I’d pick neither!
Matthew Parris wrote an at-the-time controversial column a few years ago arguing that we spend far too much time and energy worrying about the Arab-Israeli conflict and we should leave them to it.
For historical reasons this is of course practically impossible, but I do think it takes up an inordinate amount of Western political oxygen compared with just about any other conflict, including Russia-Ukraine. Out of all proportion to the scale of the conflict. Think of the others in recent years in the same broad neighbourhood: Yemen, Syria, Nagorno Karabakh, Libya. Some of which - notably Libya - the West was as involved in at the start as anything to do with Palestine.
One of the advantages of the post oil world will be not being beholden to the murderous clown shows who run so many petro-states.
Another reason why the Arab-Israeli conflict is such an aberration. No oil there (well not quite none but you know what I mean). So I suspect well after we’re no longer importing hydrocarbons we’ll still be seeing Palestine flags on peoples social media posts.
The one geopolitically salient angle on this is Hezbollah and by extension Iran.
No. Turns out the Jews were right, all along
All this wanking on about Palestine (but not wanking on about the Uigurs, the Rohingya, Yemen, etc) proves that it’s just a proxy for anti-Semitism. It really is. Scratch 80% of the protestors deep enough and they will eventually bleed Jew-hatred. Guaranteed. The last few weeks have shown this beyond reasonable doubt
However, this does not exonerate Israel or its governments in terms of politics. It has often done things which, quite rationally, evoke hatred in its enemies
Compare with the silence on what Pakistan is now doing to Afghan refugees.
Yes. Anyone who denies this, now, is a fool or a liar. It’s anti-Semitism which fuels the Palestinian cause beyond all reason, the mask has finally slipped
Perhaps it should not be a surprise that the most ancient hatred never went away; it’s plagued humanity for at least 2000 years, like some horrible genetic curse, like the Habsburg chin of racism, we were deluding ourselves that we’d killed it off (along with 6m Jews) post 1945
We just re-imported it. Like ash die-back, or rabies
No, it’s that every cause has its infestation of horrible people.
Organise a demo and Fascists and other human failures will show up to try and somehow tap into the support for your cause.
‘Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.’
Honestly, what difference will it make to people in the UK? Slightly less warry foreign policy and slightly less coherent economic policy.
There will be some residual shame when Starmer has to lick DJT where he shits but the British people are well acculturated to that particular spasm of discomforting embarrassment.
The US withdrawing from NATO will be a bit crap, TBH
Our defence spending will have to double, that’s gonna hurt lots of other things
Otherwise the UK will survive. I’d be much less sanguine if I was living in Eastern Europe or maybe Taiwan
I must confess that I’m coming to the view that this is a war where, if I had to support either side, I’d pick neither!
Matthew Parris wrote an at-the-time controversial column a few years ago arguing that we spend far too much time and energy worrying about the Arab-Israeli conflict and we should leave them to it.
For historical reasons this is of course practically impossible, but I do think it takes up an inordinate amount of Western political oxygen compared with just about any other conflict, including Russia-Ukraine. Out of all proportion to the scale of the conflict. Think of the others in recent years in the same broad neighbourhood: Yemen, Syria, Nagorno Karabakh, Libya. Some of which - notably Libya - the West was as involved in at the start as anything to do with Palestine.
One of the advantages of the post oil world will be not being beholden to the murderous clown shows who run so many petro-states.
Another reason why the Arab-Israeli conflict is such an aberration. No oil there (well not quite none but you know what I mean). So I suspect well after we’re no longer importing hydrocarbons we’ll still be seeing Palestine flags on peoples social media posts.
The one geopolitically salient angle on this is Hezbollah and by extension Iran.
No. Turns out the Jews were right, all along
All this wanking on about Palestine (but not wanking on about the Uigurs, the Rohingya, Yemen, etc) proves that it’s just a proxy for anti-Semitism. It really is. Scratch 80% of the protestors deep enough and they will eventually bleed Jew-hatred. Guaranteed. The last few weeks have shown this beyond reasonable doubt
However, this does not exonerate Israel or its governments in terms of politics. It has often done things which, quite rationally, evoke hatred in its enemies
Compare with the silence on what Pakistan is now doing to Afghan refugees.
Yes. Anyone who denies this, now, is a fool or a liar. It’s anti-Semitism which fuels the Palestinian cause beyond all reason, the mask has finally slipped
Perhaps it should not be a surprise that the most ancient hatred never went away; it’s plagued humanity for at least 2000 years, like some horrible genetic curse, like the Habsburg chin of racism, we were deluding ourselves that we’d killed it off (along with 6m Jews) post 1945
We just re-imported it. Like ash die-back, or rabies
No, it’s that every cause has its infestation of horrible people.
Organise a demo and Fascists and other human failures will show up to try and somehow tap into the support for your cause.
You have to push them out, that’s all.
Nah. I used to believe that; not any more
I’ve looked at the protests and seen the gleam in the eye; it’s anti-Semitism
The details on that US polling are even worse for Biden than the headlines. He’s heading for defeat
If he has a shred of decency he will step back and let a younger candidate take the reins, defeating Trump is more important than his career. He somehow needs to ensure it won’t be Harris
But I bet Biden will stumble on. He’s old and vain; it’s a bad mix
The problem is everyone else still polls worse than Biden does against Trump...
‘Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.’
Honestly, what difference will it make to people in the UK? Slightly less warry foreign policy and slightly less coherent economic policy.
There will be some residual shame when Starmer has to lick DJT where he shits but the British people are well acculturated to that particular spasm of discomforting embarrassment.
The US withdrawing from NATO will be a bit crap, TBH
Our defence spending will have to double, that’s gonna hurt lots of other things
Otherwise the UK will survive. I’d be much less sanguine if I was living in Eastern Europe or maybe Taiwan
Triple, more like.
Poland will be nuclear armed power within a decade.
I must confess that I’m coming to the view that this is a war where, if I had to support either side, I’d pick neither!
Matthew Parris wrote an at-the-time controversial column a few years ago arguing that we spend far too much time and energy worrying about the Arab-Israeli conflict and we should leave them to it.
For historical reasons this is of course practically impossible, but I do think it takes up an inordinate amount of Western political oxygen compared with just about any other conflict, including Russia-Ukraine. Out of all proportion to the scale of the conflict. Think of the others in recent years in the same broad neighbourhood: Yemen, Syria, Nagorno Karabakh, Libya. Some of which - notably Libya - the West was as involved in at the start as anything to do with Palestine.
One of the advantages of the post oil world will be not being beholden to the murderous clown shows who run so many petro-states.
Another reason why the Arab-Israeli conflict is such an aberration. No oil there (well not quite none but you know what I mean). So I suspect well after we’re no longer importing hydrocarbons we’ll still be seeing Palestine flags on peoples social media posts.
The one geopolitically salient angle on this is Hezbollah and by extension Iran.
No. Turns out the Jews were right, all along
All this wanking on about Palestine (but not wanking on about the Uigurs, the Rohingya, Yemen, etc) proves that it’s just a proxy for anti-Semitism. It really is. Scratch 80% of the protestors deep enough and they will eventually bleed Jew-hatred. Guaranteed. The last few weeks have shown this beyond reasonable doubt
However, this does not exonerate Israel or its governments in terms of politics. It has often done things which, quite rationally, evoke hatred in its enemies
Compare with the silence on what Pakistan is now doing to Afghan refugees.
Yes. Anyone who denies this, now, is a fool or a liar. It’s anti-Semitism which fuels the Palestinian cause beyond all reason, the mask has finally slipped
Perhaps it should not be a surprise that the most ancient hatred never went away; it’s plagued humanity for at least 2000 years, like some horrible genetic curse, like the Habsburg chin of racism, we were deluding ourselves that we’d killed it off (along with 6m Jews) post 1945
We just re-imported it. Like ash die-back, or rabies
No, it’s that every cause has its infestation of horrible people.
Organise a demo and Fascists and other human failures will show up to try and somehow tap into the support for your cause.
You have to push them out, that’s all.
Nah. I used to believe that; not any more
I’ve looked at the protests and seen the gleam in the eye; it’s anti-Semitism
The problem with making windows into men’s souls is that windows are bloody dangerous.
I'm not keen on this survey question. Its 'strictness' is a poor metric for judging the government's handling of the pandemic. Let's face facts, it was a shambles. They were far less competent in general and in many specific areas than we had a right to expect. However this doesn't mean they were 'too strict' or 'not strict enough'. Indeed the 'strictness' was about right. I'd have answered that way ('about right') yet as I say I think they messed up the pandemic quite badly. Even after cutting the relevant slack for being hit out of the blue with such a monumental crisis I score them way down. 4/10 max. But about right on the strictness.
Yes, I agree the question reduces the complexity of the problem and assessment rather too much. If I think the government should have imposed lighter measures earlier to avoid having to impose severe restrictions at the last minute should I say they were too strict, or not strict enough? And many of the interesting questions are not strictness related at all (how well did we do vaccine rollout, was EOtHO a good or bad idea, handling of furlough, could we have managed better early track and trace and containment as some Asian countries did, etc). We got some things definitely right and messed up in others; I think 4 or 5/10 after adjustment for "unprecedented crisis" is about right on balance.
Comments
Yes.
Not actually hard, is it?
Edit - incidentally you completely mischaracterised my comment. I pointed out the graph was wrong. Then I suggested a reason why it might be wrong. Your argument implies I was looking at it the other way round.
It says a lot about British values that this is unremarkable.
Historically Le Pen’s party has done well at EU elex. Like UKIP in the UK the French use euro-elex as a protest vehicle. But 28% with the next party on 20% would be emphatically their best result yet
The Gaza conflict - and consequent protests/terror in France - assuredly feeds her narrative
Scrub that theory, it would depend on some selflessness from Suella.
There is evidence of this in transport activity etc.
This was also the point made by our own @rcs1000 - that lockdowns in law or not is not the point, since people self isolate as things get worse.
*Did Not Attend
Peter Hitchens"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12711197/PETER-HITCHENS-disdain-brave-scientist-tells-great-Covid-19-whitewash.html
Netanyahu suspends Israeli minister for saying dropping nuclear bomb on Gaza 'one of the possibilities'
Benjamin Netanyahu said the statement by junior minister Amihai Eliyahu was "not based in reality", while other politicians denounced him as "irresponsible".
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/netanyahu-suspends-israeli-minister-for-saying-dropping-nuclear-bomb-on-gaza-one-of-the-possibilities-13001055
It's absurd that the government resisted for so long putting in quarantine measures at the border, but took it upon themselves to regulate what people could do in their homes.
But anyway. The problem now is that we're not putting in place the measures that would enable us to reduce the impact of a future pandemic. There's so much that could be done with air filtration in schools and hospitals.
As an aside, it's even odder that Israel simply relied upon a wire fence to defend itself from invasion from Gaza.
In more fake news Hamas is now claiming the dog-in-tunnel story is bogus. Either it’s a training video (most likely) or from another conflict (possibly Turkey v PKK)
My sense is that Hamas are correct here. Don’t often say that
This war is unreal. You have to deeply scrutinise every image/video to see if it’s genuine. Or AI. Or sourced elsewhere
https://www.timesofisrael.com/years-of-subterfuge-high-tech-barrier-paralyzed-how-hamas-busted-israels-defenses/
Which, as a betting man, you should know is impossible.
Heneghan had the ear of the government repeatedly as per his own testimony. He was brought in in September to advise.
His predictions were so wrong he ended up deleting his Twitter history for 2020, his claims in September were in variance with reality, and the case he made was so weak that even Johnson, who'd been parroting Toby Young's lines internally at the time, was unconvinced by him.
When I was younger and stupider I sided more on the Palestinian side than the Israeli side. Then Israel withdrew from Gaza and all the occupation criticisms no longer applied. Then Gaza elected Hamas as their government. Then we had ISIS going at it elsewhere.
Some of the things Israeli governments do are terrible. Petty vindictive idiocy driven by their religious crazies. I dislike religious crazies whatever the faith. But only the Muslim crazies seem set on genocide, and that is where the line has to be drawn. Especially when Jews have already suffered one.
If we want a 2 state solution then Hamas need to be removed. As Hamas are actively trying to have their own people killed I am not remotely interested in anything they say. Their cause is an outrage.
Where's a Qassam when we could do with one?
Where do the settlers in the West Bank factor into your thinking? Are they not a provocation?
(As an aside, I know I ask you lots about this - it’s because I respect your position and am interested in it - I’m not intending to start an argument).
Plus there's the Boris factor - whoever he endorses starts at a big advantage. While I can see him endorsing Patel as a return for her loyalty, I can't see him doing that for Braverman. She launched her 2019 campaign before he resigned and he has no personal fondness for - as he clearly did with Patel - "form a square around the Prittster" etc.
Just seems very odd to me that Braverman's about 5/1 to be next Tory leader and Patel is 50/1 when they will both be making a similar pitch - but the latter has advantages the former does not. People just seem to have forgotten that if Tory MPs/members want to elect an Asian woman who is a hardline former home secretary and annoys liberals and left-wingers, there's another option who might have a very influential backer and who isn't bound to a government that looks likely to get a shellacking at the polls.
49 hundreds. Same as Tendulkar In 200 fewer innings. GOAT ?
NY Times
And I suspect this is caused by the wealth/debt divide.
Having a job and earning good money doesn't satisfy if you're stuck in debt and with little hope of building your own financial wealth.
Which is the situation for many younger people.
In particular large parts of the younger suburban, southern middle classes will be increasingly shafted by a combination of debt, unaffordable housing, globalisation and AI.
The fence was supposed to be of the nature of a trip wire.much like border walls throughout history, really.
Israel has shown it will withdraw settlers for peace. Yet the supposedly righteous chanting “shame on you” at kids who went to McDonalds demand that Israel be swept from the map
One of the first war photos. People are still arguing how faked it is. Or not
At the time, this was considered WTAF.
Bibi seems to have decided wearing slimming black shirts is the way to hide his old man’s pot belly, unfortunate colour choice in the circs.
I think this is the one (£) https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/two-reasons-why-i-cannot-bring-myself-to-write-about-the-israel-problem-bkd9pm5p2nt
For historical reasons this is of course practically impossible, but I do think it takes up an inordinate amount of Western political oxygen compared with just about any other conflict, including Russia-Ukraine. Out of all proportion to the scale of the conflict. Think of the others in recent years in the same broad neighbourhood: Yemen, Syria, Nagorno Karabakh, Libya. Some of which - notably Libya - the West was as involved in at the start as anything to do with Palestine.
(For the avoidance of doubt that’s not intended to be pro Palestinian and certainly not pro Hamas.)
Clearly that didn't apply.
So Israel now has to either withdraw its residential areas deeper into Israel or advance its tripwire deeper into Gaza.
The USA needs neither.
His logic was that it was the West Bank he actually wanted, and removing Gaza from the equation gave Israel a stronger demographic advantage if it went for annexation.
The reports so far suggest that the Israeli government was asleep at the switch - both to general strategic warnings, and to the actual incursions.
Thanks for the reply, though.
The one geopolitically salient angle on this is Hezbollah and by extension Iran.
When time is called on the Arab petro-states, one of the first things to go will be the river of money they spend on supporting/buying off fundies both at home and around the world.
The weekly Perun, an assessment of Iran's Military Strategy and Impact, just arrived.
Completely ignoring the Youtube optimums as ever - it's basically a one hour Powerpoint on video with a very well-informed commentary. He starts off with Darius the Great and the Greeks.
Iran's Military Strategy & Power Projection - Drones, Proxies & Production under Sanctions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cy95hMoMhrY
Compare Bradman scoring rate to other batsmen of his era:
https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/australia-tour-of-england-1930-61334/england-vs-australia-3rd-test-62582/full-scorecard
Anyone who could get over 300 in less than a day would have done well in a limited overs match.
Whether by advancing or withdrawing Israel needs a much deeper defensive zone at its frontier.
‘Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds
Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.’
It’s time for THE DONALD REDUX
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Admittedly, he was playing New Zealand on a small ground with a pop gun attack.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2023/11/01/8a392/1
It might well be time for an actual Republican though.
The sweet spot might be combining Biden's economic nationalism with actual border control.
And with the GOP attracting more working class support taxing the urban rich could be the way to pay for them.
All this wanking on about Palestine (but not wanking on about the Uigurs, the Rohingya, Yemen, etc) proves that it’s just a proxy for anti-Semitism. It really is. Scratch 80% of the protestors deep enough and they will eventually bleed Jew-hatred. Guaranteed. The last few weeks have shown this beyond reasonable doubt
However, this does not exonerate Israel or its governments in terms of politics. It has often done things which, quite rationally, evoke hatred in its enemies
Perhaps it should not be a surprise that the most ancient hatred never went away; it’s plagued humanity for at least 2000 years, like some horrible genetic curse, like the Habsburg chin of racism, we were deluding ourselves that we’d killed it off (along with 6m Jews) post 1945
We just re-imported it. Like ash die-back, or rabies
I'd say that the only groups to come out with their reputation enhanced were:
the supermarkets
the vaccine sector
the Treasury (much to my surprise)
As to the strictness of restrictions IMO they were too strict on some things and not strict enough on others.
There will be some residual shame when Starmer has to lick DJT where he shits but the British people are well acculturated to that particular spasm of discomforting embarrassment.
If he has a shred of decency he will step back and let a younger candidate take the reins, defeating Trump is more important than his career. He somehow needs to ensure it won’t be Harris
But I bet Biden will stumble on. He’s old and vain; it’s a bad mix
Organise a demo and Fascists and other human failures will show up to try and somehow tap into the support for your cause.
You have to push them out, that’s all.
Our defence spending will have to double, that’s gonna hurt lots of other things
Otherwise the UK will survive. I’d be much less sanguine if I was living in Eastern Europe or maybe Taiwan
A birthday party!
For a two year old.
Oh, well.
I’ve looked at the protests and seen the gleam in the eye; it’s anti-Semitism
Poland will be nuclear armed power within a decade.
Well, they have got de Kock out early.
Almost in a flash, one might say.