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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour to launch a decapitation strategy against Clegg?

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  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Gordon Brown speaks;
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10646056/Gordon-Brown-warns-Scots-independence-means-losing-British-state-pension.html

    In the words of the late Tony Greig , it's goodnight Charlie for the Nats.

    Oh I don't know, one of the big pluses if Yes were to win is seeing the chickens come home to roost on Brown. The man who did so much to blame all Scotland's problems on the South and did half the SNPs work for them could get to see another pillar of his reputation crumble before him.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Lennon said:

    Danny565 said:

    taffys said:

    ''By contrast, Sheffield Hallam is almost the polar opposite of Cornwall -- public-sector workers and liberal academics are disgusted with the actions of the Lib Dems, and crucially, they have a ready-made home in Labour.''


    Does this mean Julian Huppert is vulnerable in Cambridge?? Fascinating battle in the UK's new boom town.

    Yes, I definitely think he is (although I think Huppert has distanced himself a bit from some of the Coalition's more controversial policies, which might help him). I actually think that's one of Labour's more promising prospects in the south, even though they're starting from third.

    By contrast, I think we could potentially see some Lib Dem MPs in the southwest with precarious majorities of <5% manage to cling on. I don't think Lib Dem MPs will be suffering anything close to a uniform swing against them.</p>
    I think that I pretty much exactly disagree with you. Cambridge is safe for Huppert, and Hallam is safe for Clegg. By contrast in the South-West, I expect the LD's to lose Wells, 50/50 to lose each of Somerton and Taunton Deane, and potentially one of Devon North or Yeovil.
    I agree on Huppert. He's carved himself something of a decent reputation locally and will enjoy a first term bounce and retain the seat.

    Some of the west country seats are a far more difficult read.

  • Currency and EU threats crumble

    There is widespread coverage of the First Minister’s speech in Aberdeen yesterday. Mr Salmond published calculations showing how if Scotland instead used a new currency after Yes, it would cost hundreds of millions to English businesses.


    http://www.yesscotland.net/news/daily-digest-yes-stronger-pensions-and-currency-and-eu-threats-crumble


    Not if they invoice in Sterling.

    Of course they may pass on the costs of invoicing in a minor currency to the purchaser...

    And of course the article does not explain at all how the challenges "have crumbled"....
  • Sean_F said:

    Imagine his reaction if Yes loses.

    No, it would be much worse for him if Yes wins; that would mean reality intervening. If No win, he'll be able to rail against the manifest injustice of the level of detail on maps to his heart's content.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    TGOHF said:

    boo hoo ...

    "norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS 4m
    "Yob-time" #pmqs "Needs to be looked at" says @ed_miliband"

    Judge-led public inquiry?
  • There's something very funny about a lot of posters with high post counts discussing another poster on other forums with a high post count.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2014
    JackW said:

    I agree on Huppert. He's carved himself something of a decent reputation locally and will enjoy a first term bounce and retain the seat.

    I hope so ... checks betting slips... LibDems to hold Cambridge, on at 6/4
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    I'm out this evening, so there'll be no nighthawks.

    But there will be a thread on Scotland autopublishing around 8pm and it's a thread that will need your contributions on it.

    My word, another Scottish thread. Mr Eagles, you are too good to us. We have had so few threads dominated by what passes for debate on Scottish Independence.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Pulpstar said:

    Lennon said:

    Danny565 said:

    taffys said:

    ''By contrast, Sheffield Hallam is almost the polar opposite of Cornwall -- public-sector workers and liberal academics are disgusted with the actions of the Lib Dems, and crucially, they have a ready-made home in Labour.''


    Does this mean Julian Huppert is vulnerable in Cambridge?? Fascinating battle in the UK's new boom town.

    Yes, I definitely think he is (although I think Huppert has distanced himself a bit from some of the Coalition's more controversial policies, which might help him). I actually think that's one of Labour's more promising prospects in the south, even though they're starting from third.

    By contrast, I think we could potentially see some Lib Dem MPs in the southwest with precarious majorities of <5% manage to cling on. I don't think Lib Dem MPs will be suffering anything close to a uniform swing against them.</p>
    I think that I pretty much exactly disagree with you. Cambridge is safe for Huppert, and Hallam is safe for Clegg. By contrast in the South-West, I expect the LD's to lose Wells, 50/50 to lose each of Somerton and Taunton Deane, and potentially one of Devon North or Yeovil.
    What do you make of their Scottish chances - Kennedy, Carmichael and Thurso of Thurso are safe. I can't speak for any of the others - Danny Alexander could be vulnerable...
    Not looked too closely at Scotland - there is an event in the Autumn of this year which could change everything anyway so I've not bothered (as well as not having any links or local knowledge). I could pontificate, but would totally be fighting blind so I won't bother if that's ok.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Pulpstar said:

    For all their woes the Lib Dems are bottoming out at ~ 8% in the polls.

    Have they found bottom? They still seem to be trending down.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,036

    Pulpstar said:

    For all their woes the Lib Dems are bottoming out at ~ 8% in the polls.

    Have they found bottom? They still seem to be trending down.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm
    They look pretty stable - http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
  • TGOHF said:

    'Peter Bell is 63. He used to run a corporate communications consultancy but gave it up in order to concentrate on what he sees as his new job, albeit one which is unpaid, critiquing articles which, in his view, are hostile to Scottish independence. His usual routine is to rise at six in the morning, sit down in the living room of his home in Perth, at his Acer 17-inch laptop, experience “low-level despair” while browsing the morning news and then put in a good 12 to 16 hours’ commenting shift. '

    Keeps them off the streets.
    What a saddo.

    TGOHF Posts: 5,450
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    edited February 2014
    JackW said:

    Lennon said:

    Danny565 said:

    taffys said:

    ''By contrast, Sheffield Hallam is almost the polar opposite of Cornwall -- public-sector workers and liberal academics are disgusted with the actions of the Lib Dems, and crucially, they have a ready-made home in Labour.''


    Does this mean Julian Huppert is vulnerable in Cambridge?? Fascinating battle in the UK's new boom town.

    Yes, I definitely think he is (although I think Huppert has distanced himself a bit from some of the Coalition's more controversial policies, which might help him). I actually think that's one of Labour's more promising prospects in the south, even though they're starting from third.

    By contrast, I think we could potentially see some Lib Dem MPs in the southwest with precarious majorities of <5% manage to cling on. I don't think Lib Dem MPs will be suffering anything close to a uniform swing against them.</p>
    I think that I pretty much exactly disagree with you. Cambridge is safe for Huppert, and Hallam is safe for Clegg. By contrast in the South-West, I expect the LD's to lose Wells, 50/50 to lose each of Somerton and Taunton Deane, and potentially one of Devon North or Yeovil.
    I agree on Huppert. He's carved himself something of a decent reputation locally and will enjoy a first term bounce and retain the seat.

    Some of the west country seats are a far more difficult read.


    Indeed... Part of the difficulty with some of the west country seats is knowing who the opposition is. UKIP could be the LD's total salvation, or could come from nowhere and actually win one (or more than one) in a close 3 way battle. As I mentioned previously though - I think that the lack of LD activists in the area, spread over too many seats will be telling.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    For all their woes the Lib Dems are bottoming out at ~ 8% in the polls.

    Have they found bottom? They still seem to be trending down.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm
    They look pretty stable - http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
    Electoral Calculus produce a similar average graph, but don't seem to include the daily YouGov. Without that, the LDs appear to have been declining throughout this parliament, rather than just in late 2010.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls.html


  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    JackW said:

    Lennon said:

    Danny565 said:

    taffys said:

    ''By contrast, Sheffield Hallam is almost the polar opposite of Cornwall -- public-sector workers and liberal academics are disgusted with the actions of the Lib Dems, and crucially, they have a ready-made home in Labour.''


    Does this mean Julian Huppert is vulnerable in Cambridge?? Fascinating battle in the UK's new boom town.

    Yes, I definitely think he is (although I think Huppert has distanced himself a bit from some of the Coalition's more controversial policies, which might help him). I actually think that's one of Labour's more promising prospects in the south, even though they're starting from third.

    By contrast, I think we could potentially see some Lib Dem MPs in the southwest with precarious majorities of <5% manage to cling on. I don't think Lib Dem MPs will be suffering anything close to a uniform swing against them.</p>
    I think that I pretty much exactly disagree with you. Cambridge is safe for Huppert, and Hallam is safe for Clegg. By contrast in the South-West, I expect the LD's to lose Wells, 50/50 to lose each of Somerton and Taunton Deane, and potentially one of Devon North or Yeovil.
    I agree on Huppert. He's carved himself something of a decent reputation locally and will enjoy a first term bounce and retain the seat.

    Some of the west country seats are a far more difficult read.

    Huppert has marmited the local community - however biggest boost for him is that Labour have picked the local union firebrand loser that managed to finish 3rd last time behind the Cons.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    dr_spyn said:
    It is quite hard to decide which is the more disastrous at the moment - the SNP efforts to get a Yes vote, or the LibDems efforts to get MP's at the 2015 election.

    There is no downside whatsoever to Labour going for the LibDem jugular. They are hardly going to drive rafts of voters from the LibDems towards the Tories by pointing out failures by the Coalition. They are only going to get LibDem votes. No brainer for Labour. (Which is just as well for a party showing slim evidence of having a brain.)

    The LibDems thinking they can be equally unpleasant to Labour only works if Labour don't get a majority and need them. Which requires at least a minibus of LibDem MP's.

    The LibDems have to decide they have actually done wonderful things in Govt. of which they are rightly proud. And tell their voters that Labour would come in and stomp all over that work, like so many kiddies' sandcastles on a beach.

    Their own ambivalence to their being in Govt. is likely to be rewarded by the voters telling them "well, feck off out of Government then..."

    The other thing that will cause a wry smile in May 2015 is if a Labour majority is less than the seats Labour would have lost under the boundary changes. The LibDems will have given Ed Miliband the keys to their ministerial limos, whilst thinking they were being oh so clever in kicking the Tories for some imagined slight over AV....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    I agree on Huppert. He's carved himself something of a decent reputation locally and will enjoy a first term bounce and retain the seat.

    I hope so ... checks betting slips... LibDems to hold Cambridge, on at 6/4
    Good price. Huppert should be 1/2

  • I do have a question about Scottish independence which I don't think has been explored on pb previously.

    If Scotland were to become independent, to what extent would Holyrood seek to govern Scotland in a unitary manner and to what extent would it seek to devolve responsibilities locally?

    The thought was prompted by this article:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/talks-on-more-powers-for-scots-islands-crucial-1-3309636
  • Gordon Brown speaks;
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10646056/Gordon-Brown-warns-Scots-independence-means-losing-British-state-pension.html

    In the words of the late Tony Greig , it's goodnight Charlie for the Nats.

    Oh I don't know, one of the big pluses if Yes were to win is seeing the chickens come home to roost on Brown. The man who did so much to blame all Scotland's problems on the South and did half the SNPs work for them could get to see another pillar of his reputation crumble before him.
    And of course he will also find himself unemployed if SLAB MPs get their P45s
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Gordon Brown speaks;
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10646056/Gordon-Brown-warns-Scots-independence-means-losing-British-state-pension.html

    In the words of the late Tony Greig , it's goodnight Charlie for the Nats.

    More lies Monica, pretty desperate quoting that buffoon.
    Funnily enough the DWP will tell anyone asking (IN WRITING) UK pensions will be paid as usual, wherever you live in the Whole Wild World.
    Unless Westminster privatise it first.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Pulpstar said:

    For all their woes the Lib Dems are bottoming out at ~ 8% in the polls.

    Have they found bottom? They still seem to be trending down.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm
    Given their recent woes, probably not wise to speculate on whether the Libdems have found bottom.

    You'll have their lawyers on....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    TGOHF said:

    'Peter Bell is 63. He used to run a corporate communications consultancy but gave it up in order to concentrate on what he sees as his new job, albeit one which is unpaid, critiquing articles which, in his view, are hostile to Scottish independence. His usual routine is to rise at six in the morning, sit down in the living room of his home in Perth, at his Acer 17-inch laptop, experience “low-level despair” while browsing the morning news and then put in a good 12 to 16 hours’ commenting shift. '

    Keeps them off the streets.
    What a saddo.

    Note his initials are PB :-)

    I was going to say this could be Porkie, but then who ever heard of a cybernat who lives in Scotland ?
    Me
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Lennon said:

    JackW said:

    Lennon said:

    Danny565 said:

    taffys said:

    ''By contrast, Sheffield Hallam is almost the polar opposite of Cornwall -- public-sector workers and liberal academics are disgusted with the actions of the Lib Dems, and crucially, they have a ready-made home in Labour.''


    Does this mean Julian Huppert is vulnerable in Cambridge?? Fascinating battle in the UK's new boom town.

    Yes, I definitely think he is (although I think Huppert has distanced himself a bit from some of the Coalition's more controversial policies, which might help him). I actually think that's one of Labour's more promising prospects in the south, even though they're starting from third.

    By contrast, I think we could potentially see some Lib Dem MPs in the southwest with precarious majorities of <5% manage to cling on. I don't think Lib Dem MPs will be suffering anything close to a uniform swing against them.</p>
    I think that I pretty much exactly disagree with you. Cambridge is safe for Huppert, and Hallam is safe for Clegg. By contrast in the South-West, I expect the LD's to lose Wells, 50/50 to lose each of Somerton and Taunton Deane, and potentially one of Devon North or Yeovil.
    I agree on Huppert. He's carved himself something of a decent reputation locally and will enjoy a first term bounce and retain the seat.

    Some of the west country seats are a far more difficult read.


    Indeed... Part of the difficulty with some of the west country seats is knowing who the opposition is. UKIP could be the LD's total salvation, or could come from nowhere and actually win one (or more than one) in a close 3 way battle. As I mentioned previously though - I think that the lack of LD activists in the area, spread over too many seats will be telling.
    Tricky determinations here .... and it's given my ARSE a few rumbles of discontent.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited February 2014
    Well that didn't last long......

    Lib Dem website goes off message with new attack on Labour
    The party's new 404 page features Ed Balls and the message "Just like Labour's plan for the economy, this page doesn't exist."


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/02/lib-dem-website-goes-message-new-attack-labour

    Eg: http://www.libdems.org.uk/spring_conferen
  • Mick_Pork said:

    If nothing else it does highlight just how much of a liability calamity Clegg is as leader.
    He can indeed keep his seat, but at what cost to all the other lid dem MPs not nearly so confident of that? Sooner or later they are going to start weighing in. Most likely after the May EU and local elections if they are truly dire for the lib dems.

    I'd say that he's unpopular because he's the face of the Lib Dems in government not the other way around. They were always going to be hammered after the years of empty promises finally got shown up for what they are. He even tried to drop the tuition fee pledge, but couldn't because of the members.

    Also I reckon most of their problems are due to being in a coalition with the Tories. If they'd joined forces with Labour and enacted exactly the same policies they'd have faired much better. I seemed to recall Labour getting away with bringing in tuition fees against their promises with barely a shrug of the shoulders.

    The fact that their support comprised a large proportion of people who hate the Tories first and then engage brain second is their main problem.
  • If Scotland wins independence, should it bring back the Stuart dynasty?
    It is also worth raising a third matter. Will the Queen be allowed to remain as Scottish monarch? I have no doubt that the Queen herself would strongly prefer that she did. But it is not simply a matter for her. She is constitutionally obliged to take the advice of the Prime Minister, David Cameron.
    Cameron has already denied Scotland the pound sterling. He is entitled to deny the Scots the House of Windsor, especially since the Scots had their own separate monarch before James the VI and I unified the crowns of England and Scotland in 1603.


    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100260139/if-scotland-wins-independence-should-they-bring-back-the-stuart-dynasty/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,036

    Well that didn't last long......

    Lib Dem website goes off message with new attack on Labour
    The party's new 404 page features Ed Balls and the message "Just like Labour's plan for the economy, this page doesn't exist."


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/02/lib-dem-website-goes-message-new-attack-labour

    A reasonably funny little easter egg!
  • Well that didn't last long......

    Lib Dem website goes off message with new attack on Labour
    The party's new 404 page features Ed Balls and the message "Just like Labour's plan for the economy, this page doesn't exist."


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/02/lib-dem-website-goes-message-new-attack-labour

    Best strategy for the Lib Dems would be to spend the whole pre-election runup criticising Labour's economic record, take the next election defeats on the chin and then watch and wait as the economy goes to pot under Balls. Then they'll be in a good position to bounce back for the following election.

    They need to understand that their competition for votes is mostly left-wing voters and hence with Labour. But no doubt they'll just be cosying up to Labour again which served them so well in 1997 when Blair ignored all his promises to them.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,343
    antifrank said:

    I do have a question about Scottish independence which I don't think has been explored on pb previously.

    If Scotland were to become independent, to what extent would Holyrood seek to govern Scotland in a unitary manner and to what extent would it seek to devolve responsibilities locally?

    The thought was prompted by this article:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/talks-on-more-powers-for-scots-islands-crucial-1-3309636

    Good question. No specific answer yet, simply because as I understand it basically there will be no change just because of indy.

    Any change would arise from and be written up in the constitutional review post indy as approved by the (by then, given the timings) new parliament presumably with the help of or following the proposals of the constitutional review commission or whatever it would be called.

    But you could try running 'local government' into the search engine on the White Paper - here is one result. http://www.scotreferendum.com/questions/will-local-authorities-continue-to-deliver-the-services-they-do-now/

    and chapter 10 in particular here which talks about self-determination at local level

    http://82.113.138.107/00439021.pdf

    The special problems of the three islands councils (and presumably also Argyll and Bute as that is effectively in part an islands council) would need to be addressed.

  • antifrank said:

    I do have a question about Scottish independence which I don't think has been explored on pb previously.

    If Scotland were to become independent, to what extent would Holyrood seek to govern Scotland in a unitary manner and to what extent would it seek to devolve responsibilities locally?

    The thought was prompted by this article:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/talks-on-more-powers-for-scots-islands-crucial-1-3309636

    There is a commitment to more local decision-making for the Islands, as suggested in the Scotsman piece. Currently the Unionist parties are jostling for more council autonomy, particularly financial, but that tends to be looked on by vile separatists like me as a cynical power grab because the Unionists hate the thought of the SNP having a majority at Holyrood. I think you can add it to the growing pile of things that will come out in the wash after the referendum.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    JackW said:

    Lennon said:

    JackW said:

    Lennon said:

    Danny565 said:

    taffys said:

    ''By contrast, Sheffield Hallam is almost the polar opposite of Cornwall -- public-sector workers and liberal academics are disgusted with the actions of the Lib Dems, and crucially, they have a ready-made home in Labour.''


    Does this mean Julian Huppert is vulnerable in Cambridge?? Fascinating battle in the UK's new boom town.

    Yes, I definitely think he is (although I think Huppert has distanced himself a bit from some of the Coalition's more controversial policies, which might help him). I actually think that's one of Labour's more promising prospects in the south, even though they're starting from third.

    By contrast, I think we could potentially see some Lib Dem MPs in the southwest with precarious majorities of <5% manage to cling on. I don't think Lib Dem MPs will be suffering anything close to a uniform swing against them.</p>
    I think that I pretty much exactly disagree with you. Cambridge is safe for Huppert, and Hallam is safe for Clegg. By contrast in the South-West, I expect the LD's to lose Wells, 50/50 to lose each of Somerton and Taunton Deane, and potentially one of Devon North or Yeovil.
    I agree on Huppert. He's carved himself something of a decent reputation locally and will enjoy a first term bounce and retain the seat.

    Some of the west country seats are a far more difficult read.


    Indeed... Part of the difficulty with some of the west country seats is knowing who the opposition is. UKIP could be the LD's total salvation, or could come from nowhere and actually win one (or more than one) in a close 3 way battle. As I mentioned previously though - I think that the lack of LD activists in the area, spread over too many seats will be telling.
    Tricky determinations here .... and it's given my ARSE a few rumbles of discontent.

    I can quite imagine the discontented rumblings of your ARSE... will the West Country be your new Watford?

    (Ducks)

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2014
    Alternatively you could call anyone who used to vote Labour but didn't like their mass immigration policy "BNP lite", or even refuse to believe they were working class...

    "We don’t seem to hear a lot of Blue Labour these days. But we do know that millions of working class voters have simply disappeared from the political process. It is precisely those communities who need to hear a clear message from Labour. Part of that message has to be about immigration and a willingness to listen to their concerns."


    http://labourlist.org/2014/02/its-time-we-talked-about-immigration/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,343
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    'Peter Bell is 63. He used to run a corporate communications consultancy but gave it up in order to concentrate on what he sees as his new job, albeit one which is unpaid, critiquing articles which, in his view, are hostile to Scottish independence. His usual routine is to rise at six in the morning, sit down in the living room of his home in Perth, at his Acer 17-inch laptop, experience “low-level despair” while browsing the morning news and then put in a good 12 to 16 hours’ commenting shift. '

    Keeps them off the streets.
    What a saddo.

    Note his initials are PB :-)

    I was going to say this could be Porkie, but then who ever heard of a cybernat who lives in Scotland ?
    Me
    Me too, if I qualify on both counts.

  • Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    'Peter Bell is 63. He used to run a corporate communications consultancy but gave it up in order to concentrate on what he sees as his new job, albeit one which is unpaid, critiquing articles which, in his view, are hostile to Scottish independence. His usual routine is to rise at six in the morning, sit down in the living room of his home in Perth, at his Acer 17-inch laptop, experience “low-level despair” while browsing the morning news and then put in a good 12 to 16 hours’ commenting shift. '

    Keeps them off the streets.
    What a saddo.

    Note his initials are PB :-)

    I was going to say this could be Porkie, but then who ever heard of a cybernat who lives in Scotland ?
    Me
    Me too, if I qualify on both counts.

    I too am McSpartacus.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,343
    edited February 2014

    antifrank said:

    I do have a question about Scottish independence which I don't think has been explored on pb previously.

    If Scotland were to become independent, to what extent would Holyrood seek to govern Scotland in a unitary manner and to what extent would it seek to devolve responsibilities locally?

    The thought was prompted by this article:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/talks-on-more-powers-for-scots-islands-crucial-1-3309636

    There is a commitment to more local decision-making for the Islands, as suggested in the Scotsman piece. Currently the Unionist parties are jostling for more council autonomy, particularly financial, but that tends to be looked on by vile separatists like me as a cynical power grab because the Unionists hate the thought of the SNP having a majority at Holyrood. I think you can add it to the growing pile of things that will come out in the wash after the referendum.
    Quite. Ms Lamont is very keen on redirecting money and duties to councils. Vile s's might suggest, also vilely, that it is because that gives Labour (and LDs and Tories, but far fewer of them) opportunities for more patronage, as well as jobs for the boys and girls in those public sector unions still in favour of the union (if you see what I mean). However she has been very quiet lately and I'm genuinely wondering what is going on there. No doubt the party conference will reveal something.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 1h

    The % of Brits who think environment in top 3 issues has jumped to 23% (+14) in one month. But Greens are still on 2% http://bit.ly/1gA1qK3
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    'Peter Bell is 63. He used to run a corporate communications consultancy but gave it up in order to concentrate on what he sees as his new job, albeit one which is unpaid, critiquing articles which, in his view, are hostile to Scottish independence. His usual routine is to rise at six in the morning, sit down in the living room of his home in Perth, at his Acer 17-inch laptop, experience “low-level despair” while browsing the morning news and then put in a good 12 to 16 hours’ commenting shift. '

    Keeps them off the streets.
    What a saddo.

    Note his initials are PB :-)

    I was going to say this could be Porkie, but then who ever heard of a cybernat who lives in Scotland ?
    Me
    Come off it malc, you wear a cravat and live in Dorking.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    edited February 2014

    If Scotland wins independence, should it bring back the Stuart dynasty?
    It is also worth raising a third matter. Will the Queen be allowed to remain as Scottish monarch? I have no doubt that the Queen herself would strongly prefer that she did. But it is not simply a matter for her. She is constitutionally obliged to take the advice of the Prime Minister, David Cameron.
    Cameron has already denied Scotland the pound sterling. He is entitled to deny the Scots the House of Windsor, especially since the Scots had their own separate monarch before James the VI and I unified the crowns of England and Scotland in 1603.


    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100260139/if-scotland-wins-independence-should-they-bring-back-the-stuart-dynasty/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Well, that's a numpty argument by Oborne. The Queen is constitutionally bound to accept the advice of all her prime ministers, from Canada to the UK to Jamaica to Tuvalu to the rest. Cameron (or whoever is PM) is not entitled to deny an independent Scotland the House of Windsor, any more than Antigua and Barbuda is entitled to deny Britain them.

    Besides, there's a long tradition of countries becoming independent to retain the monarchy. Precedent, never mind political realities, is on the side of unity. Indeed, for goodness sake, England (and Wales and Ireland) shared the monarchy with Scotland for around a century before the union. I'm quite sure they could do so after it too.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937


    Best strategy for the Lib Dems would be to spend the whole pre-election runup criticising Labour's economic record, take the next election defeats on the chin and then watch and wait as the economy goes to pot under Balls. Then they'll be in a good position to bounce back for the following election.

    They need to understand that their competition for votes is mostly left-wing voters and hence with Labour. But no doubt they'll just be cosying up to Labour again which served them so well in 1997 when Blair ignored all his promises to them.

    I agree. They won't do it though, for fear of somehow engineering a Tory majority. A well-run Tory Govt. 2015-2020 doing sensible, popular things whilst overseeing a strengthening economy would make it look like the LibDems in Coalition were an anchor holding back progress.

    Which indeed, they probably have been. But they don't want empirical proof of that available in 2020.

    It is probably an unduly paranoid notion. If they did manage to keep Labour out of power in 2015, they would be much better placed to make the case for being the Sensible Left, that can be trusted not to drive the economy onto the rocks.

    But at the moment, it is hard to see quite who would want to fund the LibDems - apart of course from [the following has been self-censored to avoid OGH in litigation...]
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    http://labourlist.org/2014/02/is-it-probable-ill-beat-clegg-no-but-its-possible/

    We do not underestimate the task. Nick Clegg has a margin of 19,000 votes over Labour and Deputy Prime Minister’s do not traditionally lose their seats. He has all the advantages. However, an 18.6% swing would see us take this seat. That’s 13% of the electorate switching their vote in a seat where 12% of the population are higher or further education students. Lord Ashcroft’s polling in late 2010 put Labour on 31% to Clegg’s 33%. Is it probable we’ll win here? No, certainly not, but it’s certainly possible. If you don’t want to see Nick Clegg in power after 2015 then join us; we’ll take all the help we can get, but the only people who can take the decision to remove Nick Clegg from his seat in Westminster are the people who live here.

    If the answer is Ed Miliband then some will want to either hold their noses and vote for Nick or just not bother. Big ask to cut Clegg off.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,737
    These strategies always strike me as wishful thinking due to the nature of our electoral system. It's very rare for voters to be able to directly kick out someone they hold as being responsible for things they dislike. There's a reason we're still talking about 'Portillo moments' twenty years later, because they're so rare as to have only really happened in recent memory when there was an unprecedented national swing which left the Tories not knowing where to defend.

    However it does have a few things in its favour. Firstly unlike in 2005 with the LD decapitation strategy there's likely to be a significant 'kick Clegg out' vote because he's actually been in government and done things a significant part of his supporter base don't like. In 2005 the 'let's kick out Letwin' stuff never really worked because he hadn't had the chance to do anything worthy of being kicked out besides merely being a Tory prone to saying the odd daft thing. Same goes for the other Tories attacked, they weren't really relevant enough.

    If you're not a fan of the current government the appeal of kicking out Clegg, who many think worse than most Tories because of his technocratic dissembling, is much more potent than giving the Tories a bloody nose in an election that was really all about Labour and Iraq. A strong student vote and the subsidence of Clegg-mania could make things interesting for a while in the campaign before things calm down on election day.

    Following on from this it's the most headline grabbing way to counter the Lib Dem's obvious desire to snuggle up to Labour and trying to peel off those 2010 yellow voters now in the Labour camp. What better way to remind former LD supporters of why they left than to have Clegg fighting a small but well publicised and talked up insurgency in his backyard?

    Lastly it's rather by default - most LD seats outside Scotland have the Tories as the 2nd party, and those that don't are either tiny majorities you'd expect Labour to walk or in London. Why not have a go at a seat, which although you've struggled in is in a part of the country you do well in, has a strong student vote likely to switch and which will cause terrible discomfort if you gain any traction whatsoever?

    In other words, ain't gonna happen but you can see why it's being talked up.

  • dr_spyn said:

    We do not underestimate the task. Nick Clegg has a margin of 19,000 votes over Labour and Deputy Prime Minister’s do not traditionally lose their seats.

    Maybe not, but they do traditionally lose their apostrophes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 1h

    The % of Brits who think environment in top 3 issues has jumped to 23% (+14) in one month. But Greens are still on 2% http://bit.ly/1gA1qK3

    Yes, because people want to use huge, diesel-chugging bits of kit to pump water away and dredge channels and move people around and...

    The Green's tofu-powered alternatives have been shown to be somewhat sub-optimal.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Clegg's defenestration would be the moment of 2015 GE and an instant youtube hit.

    Portillo had a smaller majority 15K and lost.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,711

    Gordon Brown speaks;
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10646056/Gordon-Brown-warns-Scots-independence-means-losing-British-state-pension.html

    In the words of the late Tony Greig , it's goodnight Charlie for the Nats.

    What was also interesting was that Telegraph readers only voted 58:42 that Brown was a help to the No campaign.

    Anyway, if British pensions are paid to Spanish residents .........
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    dr_spyn said:

    We do not underestimate the task. Nick Clegg has a margin of 19,000 votes over Labour and Deputy Prime Minister’s do not traditionally lose their seats.

    Maybe not, but they do traditionally lose their apostrophes.

    This isn't just a misuse of an apostrophe, it is a Labour misuse of an apostrophe. He must have been taken in by Blair's slogan on education.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    This tactic rings a bell... Which one of you is Dan Hodges?!

    Stewart Wood ‏@StewartWood 2h

    You have to admire @DPJHodges. First he invents the idea that Labour has a 35% strategy. Then he says it's ludicrous. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100260091/labours-shipwrecked-survivors-flee-from-the-lib-dem-rescue-ship/
  • dr_spyn said:

    Clegg's defenestration would be the moment of 2015 GE and an instant youtube hit.

    Portillo had a smaller majority 15K and lost.

    Just goes to show there are no "dead-certs" in politics!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,343

    Gordon Brown speaks;
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10646056/Gordon-Brown-warns-Scots-independence-means-losing-British-state-pension.html

    In the words of the late Tony Greig , it's goodnight Charlie for the Nats.

    What was also interesting was that Telegraph readers only voted 58:42 that Brown was a help to the No campaign.

    Anyway, if British pensions are paid to Spanish residents .........
    Er, to be fair the results seem to me to be uninterpretable, because the online voodoo poll only asks "is GB a help or a hindrance in the Scottish indy campaign" without saying to whom he is a help etc. And it can be read as "a help to the Yes campaign", given the natural default value of the statement.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    40% of graduates are still unemployed after 6 months. What a cracking idea Uni fees has been.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,711
    Carnyx said:

    Gordon Brown speaks;
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10646056/Gordon-Brown-warns-Scots-independence-means-losing-British-state-pension.html

    In the words of the late Tony Greig , it's goodnight Charlie for the Nats.

    What was also interesting was that Telegraph readers only voted 58:42 that Brown was a help to the No campaign.

    Anyway, if British pensions are paid to Spanish residents .........
    Er, to be fair the results seem to me to be uninterpretable, because the online voodoo poll only asks "is GB a help or a hindrance in the Scottish indy campaign" without saying to whom he is a help etc. And it can be read as "a help to the Yes campaign", given the natural default value of the statement.
    Fair point!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    dr_spyn said:

    Clegg's defenestration would be the moment of 2015 GE and an instant youtube hit.

    Portillo had a smaller majority 15K and lost.

    17.4% swing wouldn't quite be enough for Labour.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    40% of graduates are still unemployed after 6 months. What a cracking idea Uni fees has been.

    That seems high Mr Brooke, do you have a link?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    MJW said:

    These strategies always strike me as wishful thinking due to the nature of our electoral system. It's very rare for voters to be able to directly kick out someone they hold as being responsible for things they dislike. There's a reason we're still talking about 'Portillo moments' twenty years later, because they're so rare as to have only really happened in recent memory when there was an unprecedented national swing which left the Tories not knowing where to defend.

    However it does have a few things in its favour. Firstly unlike in 2005 with the LD decapitation strategy there's likely to be a significant 'kick Clegg out' vote because he's actually been in government and done things a significant part of his supporter base don't like. In 2005 the 'let's kick out Letwin' stuff never really worked because he hadn't had the chance to do anything worthy of being kicked out besides merely being a Tory prone to saying the odd daft thing. Same goes for the other Tories attacked, they weren't really relevant enough.

    If you're not a fan of the current government the appeal of kicking out Clegg, who many think worse than most Tories because of his technocratic dissembling, is much more potent than giving the Tories a bloody nose in an election that was really all about Labour and Iraq. A strong student vote and the subsidence of Clegg-mania could make things interesting for a while in the campaign before things calm down on election day.

    Following on from this it's the most headline grabbing way to counter the Lib Dem's obvious desire to snuggle up to Labour and trying to peel off those 2010 yellow voters now in the Labour camp. What better way to remind former LD supporters of why they left than to have Clegg fighting a small but well publicised and talked up insurgency in his backyard?

    Lastly it's rather by default - most LD seats outside Scotland have the Tories as the 2nd party, and those that don't are either tiny majorities you'd expect Labour to walk or in London. Why not have a go at a seat, which although you've struggled in is in a part of the country you do well in, has a strong student vote likely to switch and which will cause terrible discomfort if you gain any traction whatsoever?

    In other words, ain't gonna happen but you can see why it's being talked up.

    As has been pointed out many times , Hallam does NOT have a strong student vote , it has a strong academic/lecturer/professorial vote which is not the same thing at all .
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    As mentioned, I think Mick Pork's point was a good one. It's highly unlikely Clegg will lose his seat, but it will mean the Lib Dems will want to give him extra protection, which mean resources could be used up there that would otherwise be used elsewhere.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567

    JackW said:

    I agree on Huppert. He's carved himself something of a decent reputation locally and will enjoy a first term bounce and retain the seat.

    I hope so ... checks betting slips... LibDems to hold Cambridge, on at 6/4
    I don't know anything about the seat personally, but a glance at the local election results suggests that Labour's well-placed - they beat the LibDems by 6-4 in 2011 and 2-1 in 2012 (no election in 2013), with Tories almost out of sight on 7%. Are the boundaries very different, or does Huppert have a large personal vote that isn't transferred to councillors? It's presumably the sort of Guardianish area where anti-Coalition ideological feeling has been most intense.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    'Peter Bell is 63. He used to run a corporate communications consultancy but gave it up in order to concentrate on what he sees as his new job, albeit one which is unpaid, critiquing articles which, in his view, are hostile to Scottish independence. His usual routine is to rise at six in the morning, sit down in the living room of his home in Perth, at his Acer 17-inch laptop, experience “low-level despair” while browsing the morning news and then put in a good 12 to 16 hours’ commenting shift. '

    Keeps them off the streets.
    What a saddo.

    Note his initials are PB :-)

    I was going to say this could be Porkie, but then who ever heard of a cybernat who lives in Scotland ?
    Me
    Come off it malc, you wear a cravat and live in Dorking.
    LOL, you been looking in your crystal ball Alan.

    I am very concerned given I go to Spain on 19th September. Going by Westminster threats I will not be allowed given I will be an international leper by that time with no country, no passport and no money.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    taffys said:

    40% of graduates are still unemployed after 6 months. What a cracking idea Uni fees has been.

    It has indeed. Clearly graduates have been doing degrees that aren't in high demand. The need to avoid the situation of this lot will encourage others taking on debt to be more careful about getting a degree worth the money in future.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    I will be an international leper by that time with no country, no passport and no money.

    Relax Malc, you will still be a UK citizen after a resounding NO!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    '''The need to avoid the situation of this lot will encourage others taking on debt to be more careful about getting a degree worth the money in future. '''

    In that case it sounds like University fees ARE quite a good idea....
  • isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 1h

    The % of Brits who think environment in top 3 issues has jumped to 23% (+14) in one month. But Greens are still on 2% http://bit.ly/1gA1qK3

    Interesting.

    However, worth noting that is in "most important issues facing the country".

    In the "most important issues facing you and your family" the environment has surged from 8% to ... 13%. Economy, Health and Pensions still way out in the lead.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2014
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    'Peter Bell is 63. He used to run a corporate communications consultancy but gave it up in order to concentrate on what he sees as his new job, albeit one which is unpaid, critiquing articles which, in his view, are hostile to Scottish independence. His usual routine is to rise at six in the morning, sit down in the living room of his home in Perth, at his Acer 17-inch laptop, experience “low-level despair” while browsing the morning news and then put in a good 12 to 16 hours’ commenting shift. '

    Keeps them off the streets.
    What a saddo.

    Note his initials are PB :-)

    I was going to say this could be Porkie, but then who ever heard of a cybernat who lives in Scotland ?
    Me
    Come off it malc, you wear a cravat and live in Dorking.
    LOL, you been looking in your crystal ball Alan.

    I am very concerned given I go to Spain on 19th September. Going by Westminster threats I will not be allowed given I will be an international leper by that time with no country, no passport and no money.
    So proud to be Scottish, that you're scuttling away to another country.

    You'll miss out on the 'No' celebrations.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    MJW said:

    These strategies always strike me as wishful thinking due to the nature of our electoral system. It's very rare for voters to be able to directly kick out someone they hold as being responsible for things they dislike. There's a reason we're still talking about 'Portillo moments' twenty years later, because they're so rare as to have only really happened in recent memory when there was an unprecedented national swing which left the Tories not knowing where to defend.

    However it does have a few things in its favour. Firstly unlike in 2005 with the LD decapitation strategy there's likely to be a significant 'kick Clegg out' vote because he's actually been in government and done things a significant part of his supporter base don't like. In 2005 the 'let's kick out Letwin' stuff never really worked because he hadn't had the chance to do anything worthy of being kicked out besides merely being a Tory prone to saying the odd daft thing. Same goes for the other Tories attacked, they weren't really relevant enough.

    If you're not a fan of the current government the appeal of kicking out Clegg, who many think worse than most Tories because of his technocratic dissembling, is much more potent than giving the Tories a bloody nose in an election that was really all about Labour and Iraq. A strong student vote and the subsidence of Clegg-mania could make things interesting for a while in the campaign before things calm down on election day.

    Following on from this it's the most headline grabbing way to counter the Lib Dem's obvious desire to snuggle up to Labour and trying to peel off those 2010 yellow voters now in the Labour camp. What better way to remind former LD supporters of why they left than to have Clegg fighting a small but well publicised and talked up insurgency in his backyard?

    Lastly it's rather by default - most LD seats outside Scotland have the Tories as the 2nd party, and those that don't are either tiny majorities you'd expect Labour to walk or in London. Why not have a go at a seat, which although you've struggled in is in a part of the country you do well in, has a strong student vote likely to switch and which will cause terrible discomfort if you gain any traction whatsoever?

    In other words, ain't gonna happen but you can see why it's being talked up.

    As has been pointed out many times , Hallam does NOT have a strong student vote , it has a strong academic/lecturer/professorial vote which is not the same thing at all .
    But academics and lecturers, like students, overwhelmingly tend to lean to the left. Even if they're wealthy.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2014
    @NickPalmer - One factor is that Julian Huppert is a Guardianista-type himself, and about as anti-coalition as he could be whilst remaining a LibDem MP.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    I will be an international leper by that time with no country, no passport and no money.

    Relax Malc, you will still be a UK citizen after a resounding NO!
    Not much chance of that, I better use my Irish grandfather and see if they will give me a passport, though he was from the North.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:


    Not much chance of that

    Only about 80% at the moment...
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited February 2014

    Well, that's a numpty argument by Oborne. The Queen is constitutionally bound to accept the advice of all her prime ministers, from Canada to the UK to Jamaica to Tuvalu to the rest. Cameron (or whoever is PM) is not entitled to deny an independent Scotland the House of Windsor, any more than Antigua and Barbuda is entitled to deny Britain them.

    Besides, there's a long tradition of countries becoming independent to retain the monarchy. Precedent, never mind political realities, is on the side of unity. Indeed, for goodness sake, England (and Wales and Ireland) shared the monarchy with Scotland for around a century before the union. I'm quite sure they could do so after it too.

    The argument in your second paragraph is well-made, and needs no comment.

    The argument in the first paragraph is more questionable. When colonies acquired dominion status, the monarch of the United Kingdom also became monarch in right of the dominion. The monarch was thus constitutionally obliged to follow the advice of the relevant Prime Minister in respect of the relevant realm. Thus it would have been quite impermissible for Thatcher at the time of the Australia Act 1986 to try to advise the Queen that she should not fulfil her constitutional obligations in Australia. She was already Queen in right of the Commonwealth of Australia, and nothing within the power of Her Majesty's Government in the United Kingdom could change that.

    The situation in respect of Scotland today is quite different. The Queen is Queen in right of the United Kingdom. She is only bound to follow Alex Salmond's advice insofar as it does not relate to reserved matters within the meaning of the Scotland Act 1998, and is obliged to follow the advice of Ministers of the Crown in relation to reserved matters, and indeed all matters within the jurisdiction of the Westminster Parliament. Reserved matters include the monarchy, and the terms of Scottish independence, if it happens, will require the sanction of the Westminster Parliament. It would therefore be perfectly legitimate for the Westminster Parliament to prevent the creation of a separate Scottish monarchy with Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom as sovereign.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    @NickPalmer - One factor is that Julian Huppert is a Guardianista-type himself, and about as anti-coalition as he could be whilst remaining a LibDem MP.

    Huppert is anti-coalition (a Cablista ?) and ultra green. He has toned down his Arabist leanings somewhat mind you.

    Cambridge property prices are rising very strongly - demographics are changing - how quickly is up for debate.

    Still think a strong point in his favour is the paucity of the Labour candidate (who lives elsewhere).

    LD hold, Lab up a spot to 2nd.
  • isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 1h

    The % of Brits who think environment in top 3 issues has jumped to 23% (+14) in one month. But Greens are still on 2% http://bit.ly/1gA1qK3

    Yes, because people want to use huge, diesel-chugging bits of kit to pump water away and dredge channels and move people around and...

    The Green's tofu-powered alternatives have been shown to be somewhat sub-optimal.
    That is the obvious problem with those sorts of poll questions.

    How does a fervent Euro-federalist answer without appearing to give encouragement to UKIP? Are the people who give Tax an answer more concerned with cuts in their own tax rates or increases in other people's? If I'm upset at the Coalition's miserly 1% increase in social security benefits I end up answering in the same way as those who want to bring back the poorhouse...
  • Off topic: The Divisional Court (Laws LJ, Ouseley & Openshaw JJ) will tomorrow hand down its judgment in R (on the application of Miranda) v Secretary of State for the Home Department. Whatever the result, Guardianistas will be on the warpath.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    If Nick Clegg loses in Hallam, hard to see how the Lib Dems will have more than 5 MPs across the country. Which seats fall after Hallam?

    The interesting seat is Sheffield Central: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Central_(UK_Parliament_constituency) Lib Dems missed out by 165 votes on a second Sheffield seat last time. In normal times, the Lib Dems from Hallam would flood into this one, but these aren't normal times and it risks the 2010 Oxford mistake (spend so much time in the target seat you lose the one you hold) However if Labour want to throw all their resources into Hallam in Sheffield, it would be a mighty gain and would confound all expectations.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469

    @NickPalmer - One factor is that Julian Huppert is a Guardianista-type himself, and about as anti-coalition as he could be whilst remaining a LibDem MP.

    I'm not a particular fan of Huppert, but I'd still prefer him to my MP, Lansley.

    I'm disgusted by the way the Commons behaves towards Huppert. They're a bunch of immature children at times; indeed, children would probably have got bored of it before now.

    Like IDS's 'cough', or Balls' flatlining, they ought to act more like professionals than some clique of idiotic gorillas.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    tpfkar said:

    If Nick Clegg loses in Hallam, hard to see how the Lib Dems will have more than 5 MPs across the country. Which seats fall after Hallam?

    The interesting seat is Sheffield Central: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Central_(UK_Parliament_constituency) Lib Dems missed out by 165 votes on a second Sheffield seat last time. In normal times, the Lib Dems from Hallam would flood into this one, but these aren't normal times and it risks the 2010 Oxford mistake (spend so much time in the target seat you lose the one you hold) However if Labour want to throw all their resources into Hallam in Sheffield, it would be a mighty gain and would confound all expectations.

    Labour nailed on Hold Sheffield Central.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    JackW said:

    I agree on Huppert. He's carved himself something of a decent reputation locally and will enjoy a first term bounce and retain the seat.

    I hope so ... checks betting slips... LibDems to hold Cambridge, on at 6/4
    I don't know anything about the seat personally, but a glance at the local election results suggests that Labour's well-placed - they beat the LibDems by 6-4 in 2011 and 2-1 in 2012 (no election in 2013), with Tories almost out of sight on 7%. Are the boundaries very different, or does Huppert have a large personal vote that isn't transferred to councillors? It's presumably the sort of Guardianish area where anti-Coalition ideological feeling has been most intense.
    There were CC elections in 2013 , Labour won 7 wards Lib Dems 5 and John Hipkin an Independent one ward ( which in reality is the safest Lib Dem ward in the city ) .
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2014

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 1h

    The % of Brits who think environment in top 3 issues has jumped to 23% (+14) in one month. But Greens are still on 2% http://bit.ly/1gA1qK3

    Interesting.

    However, worth noting that is in "most important issues facing the country".

    In the "most important issues facing you and your family" the environment has surged from 8% to ... 13%. Economy, Health and Pensions still way out in the lead.
    Always seems to me that the "impt to the country" is always higher than "impt to me & my family" when the issue is something the state controls more than the individual and vice versa

    Welfare & Immigration are two things the individual has almost no control over, hence the large gap
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that the lefty academic vote is found far more in Sheffield Central, rather than Sheffield Hallam (and I'm sure there'll be a huge swing to Labour in Sheffield Central). Hallam, I think, is similar to Cheadle or Tatton, in socio-economic terms.
  • Sean_F said:

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that the lefty academic vote is found far more in Sheffield Central, rather than Sheffield Hallam (and I'm sure there'll be a huge swing to Labour in Sheffield Central). Hallam, I think, is similar to Cheadle or Tatton, in socio-economic terms.

    It depends on your definition of lefty academic vote.

    Sheffield has two large universities, the most senior staff tend to live in Sheffield Hallam, the more junior academic staff tend to split between the two seats.

    Also, I saw downthread, mentions of the anti-Iraq vote going to the Lib Dems in Sheffield Hallam, sorry but it doesn't exist here.

    1) The Lib Dems took the seat long before Iraq.

    2) In 2005, the first election after the Iraq war, the Labour share of the vote went up by 0.2%, and in 2010, it went down by 1.7% - So at most, the Anti-Iraq war constitutes less around 1.5%
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    taffys said:

    40% of graduates are still unemployed after 6 months. What a cracking idea Uni fees has been.

    That seems high Mr Brooke, do you have a link?

    link

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/10643586/2-in-5-graduates-jobless-six-months-after-finishing-studies.html
  • Hugh said:

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 1h

    The % of Brits who think environment in top 3 issues has jumped to 23% (+14) in one month. But Greens are still on 2% http://bit.ly/1gA1qK3

    Good news. As me said just this morning, the biggest impact the floods might have on politics is to push the environment / climate change up the agenda a bit, which is an all-round V Good Thing.
    If the climate is changing, were there any floods last winter or the winter before?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Hugh said:

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 1h

    The % of Brits who think environment in top 3 issues has jumped to 23% (+14) in one month. But Greens are still on 2% http://bit.ly/1gA1qK3

    Good news. As me said just this morning, the biggest impact the floods might have on politics is to push the environment / climate change up the agenda a bit, which is an all-round V Good Thing.
    Licking your lips at the thought of more green taxes ?

    5p a litre should drop the rivers by 1-2 m or so ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Hugh said:

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 1h

    The % of Brits who think environment in top 3 issues has jumped to 23% (+14) in one month. But Greens are still on 2% http://bit.ly/1gA1qK3

    Good news. As me said just this morning, the biggest impact the floods might have on politics is to push the environment / climate change up the agenda a bit, which is an all-round V Good Thing.
    Hugh, if you were made dictator, what would your environmental package for the country be?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Green taxes another free the roads for the rich and screw the poor policy.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 1h

    The % of Brits who think environment in top 3 issues has jumped to 23% (+14) in one month. But Greens are still on 2% http://bit.ly/1gA1qK3

    Interesting.

    However, worth noting that is in "most important issues facing the country".

    In the "most important issues facing you and your family" the environment has surged from 8% to ... 13%. Economy, Health and Pensions still way out in the lead.
    Where is immigration ? The one which is talked about so much.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Socrates said:

    taffys said:

    40% of graduates are still unemployed after 6 months. What a cracking idea Uni fees has been.

    It has indeed. Clearly graduates have been doing degrees that aren't in high demand. The need to avoid the situation of this lot will encourage others taking on debt to be more careful about getting a degree worth the money in future.
    If some graduates with an engineering degree they will be employed for life. We are current employing a 71 year old mechanical estimator, we have had a job advert for 6 years to replace him. We have had zero applicants. Encouraging too many people to go to University to get a degree which is not transferable into the real work world is the cause of this.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,036
    surbiton said:


    Where is immigration ? The one which is talked about so much.

    I guess there is a subtle distinction between 'the most important issue' and 'an important issue'
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,737
    edited February 2014
    @MarkSenior said:

    As has been pointed out many times , Hallam does NOT have a strong student vote , it has a strong academic/lecturer/professorial vote which is not the same thing at all .

    According to UKPR it's 18% in full time education so yes, not a ridiculously strong student seat but higher than say Liverpool Wavertree which contains few halls but a decent amount of student rented housing, and twice as high as a town/city seat not influenced at all by a university.

    Sorry I didn't mean to imply that it had a huge student vote ready to decapitate Clegg, merely that it could be enough among other factors to give Labour a hope of creating a bit of a stir that may ultimately be futile in winning the seat, but that could be good for morale and as others have pointed out, panic the Lib Dems were things to continue to look grim for them in the polls.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Green taxes another free the roads for the rich and screw the poor policy.''

    And don;t even think about flying abroad for your holidays. You are poor!!!! now act like it or we'll have no-one to represent.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2014
    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 1h

    The % of Brits who think environment in top 3 issues has jumped to 23% (+14) in one month. But Greens are still on 2% http://bit.ly/1gA1qK3

    Interesting.

    However, worth noting that is in "most important issues facing the country".

    In the "most important issues facing you and your family" the environment has surged from 8% to ... 13%. Economy, Health and Pensions still way out in the lead.
    Where is immigration ? The one which is talked about so much.
    Immigration is top of "country" and 4th in "family"

    The reason being that individuals are powerless over immigration, it is something the state has sole control over (although not necessarily the UK state)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lord Ashcroft on the LDs

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/02/lord-ashcroft-equidistance-wont-be-enough-for-clegg-to-win-back-lost-lib-dems.html

    "As I noted in my research last year (provocatively but not entirely facetiously titled What Are The Liberal Democrats For?), Nick Clegg has perhaps the biggest challenge of any leader in defining his party’s purpose.

    How far, then, should he should distance himself from the Tories in pursuit of votes? Equidistance may not be enough – but any further may be too fa"
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Hugh said:

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 1h

    The % of Brits who think environment in top 3 issues has jumped to 23% (+14) in one month. But Greens are still on 2% http://bit.ly/1gA1qK3

    Good news. As me said just this morning, the biggest impact the floods might have on politics is to push the environment / climate change up the agenda a bit, which is an all-round V Good Thing.
    According to the Met Office, there is no connection between the two.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/02/over-flooding-the-met-office-has-hung-its-boss-out-to-dry/
  • Hugh said:

    Scrap HS2 and build the Severn Barrage instead would be a good start.

    This Severn Barrage?

    http://www.rspb.org.uk/news/353688-severn-barrage-dead-in-the-water

    Anyway who is going to invest in major energy infrastructure given the risk that Ed Miliband might become PM?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Pulpstar said:

    tpfkar said:

    If Nick Clegg loses in Hallam, hard to see how the Lib Dems will have more than 5 MPs across the country. Which seats fall after Hallam?

    The interesting seat is Sheffield Central: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Central_(UK_Parliament_constituency) Lib Dems missed out by 165 votes on a second Sheffield seat last time. In normal times, the Lib Dems from Hallam would flood into this one, but these aren't normal times and it risks the 2010 Oxford mistake (spend so much time in the target seat you lose the one you hold) However if Labour want to throw all their resources into Hallam in Sheffield, it would be a mighty gain and would confound all expectations.

    Labour nailed on Hold Sheffield Central.
    Come on Pulpstar, we need a bit of hope at the moment. Have you been cheating and looking at local election results or something?

    By the way, if I had to put money on any Lib Dem MP increasing their majority next time, I'd put it on Julian Huppert in an instant.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Hugh said:

    TGOHF said:

    Hugh said:

    isam said:

    Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 1h

    The % of Brits who think environment in top 3 issues has jumped to 23% (+14) in one month. But Greens are still on 2% http://bit.ly/1gA1qK3

    Good news. As me said just this morning, the biggest impact the floods might have on politics is to push the environment / climate change up the agenda a bit, which is an all-round V Good Thing.
    Licking your lips at the thought of more green taxes ?

    5p a litre should drop the rivers by 1-2 m or so ?
    "Green taxes" could be part of the mix to reduce emissions.

    But it's a lot more than that. It's about long term strategies to adapt to more extreme weather, and develop alternative energy sources.

    Scrap HS2 and build the Severn Barrage instead would be a good start.
    If you were to scrap HS2, how would you sort out the capacity crunch on the railways that Labour identified whilst they were in office? Would you prefer more people to drive on those long journeys?

    As for the Severn Barrage: I utterly agree that it should be built, *if* it is technically feasible and relatively cost effective (compared to wind and/or nuclear).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    'Peter Bell is 63. He used to run a corporate communications consultancy but gave it up in order to concentrate on what he sees as his new job, albeit one which is unpaid, critiquing articles which, in his view, are hostile to Scottish independence. His usual routine is to rise at six in the morning, sit down in the living room of his home in Perth, at his Acer 17-inch laptop, experience “low-level despair” while browsing the morning news and then put in a good 12 to 16 hours’ commenting shift. '

    Keeps them off the streets.
    What a saddo.

    Note his initials are PB :-)

    I was going to say this could be Porkie, but then who ever heard of a cybernat who lives in Scotland ?
    Me
    Come off it malc, you wear a cravat and live in Dorking.
    LOL, you been looking in your crystal ball Alan.

    I am very concerned given I go to Spain on 19th September. Going by Westminster threats I will not be allowed given I will be an international leper by that time with no country, no passport and no money.
    So proud to be Scottish, that you're scuttling away to another country.

    You'll miss out on the 'No' celebrations.
    So now unionists want to also ban us from having holidays
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:


    Not much chance of that

    Only about 80% at the moment...
    That is a whopper even by your standards. It is not 1979 where the dead count as NO.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    MJW said:

    @MarkSenior said:

    As has been pointed out many times , Hallam does NOT have a strong student vote , it has a strong academic/lecturer/professorial vote which is not the same thing at all .

    According to UKPR it's 18% in full time education so yes, not a ridiculously strong student seat but higher than say Liverpool Wavertree which contains few halls but a decent amount of student rented housing, and twice as high as a town/city seat not influenced at all by a university.

    Sorry I didn't mean to imply that it had a huge student vote ready to decapitate Clegg, merely that it could be enough among other factors to give Labour a hope of creating a bit of a stir that may ultimately be futile in winning the seat, but that could be good for morale and as others have pointed out, panic the Lib Dems were things to continue to look grim for them in the polls.



    I think you will find that the 18% contains many post graduates / lecturers . Note from the same statistics that only 16.8% are aged 18 to 24 . Note the corresponding figures for Sheffield Central of 39% and 35.3% .
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    That link is a bit suspect; a finding for apprenticeships at the beginning of Apprenticeship week...

    The BBC reported the findings of a massive analysis last year, with 9% graduate unemployment at one year:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-23080323

    taffys said:

    40% of graduates are still unemployed after 6 months. What a cracking idea Uni fees has been.

    That seems high Mr Brooke, do you have a link?

    link

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/10643586/2-in-5-graduates-jobless-six-months-after-finishing-studies.html
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2014
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:


    Not much chance of that

    Only about 80% at the moment...
    That is a whopper even by your standards. It is not 1979 where the dead count as NO.
    He is talking about the betting odds I think... 1/4 = 80%
This discussion has been closed.