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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour to launch a decapitation strategy against Clegg?
This morning reports emerged that the Labour party is briefing that it has launched a “major bid” to defeat Clegg in his Sheffield Hallam constituency at the next election, with one NEC source declaring that it is “pouring resources” into the seat.
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I'd want 500-1 and maybe more.
Shadsy and Lord Ashcroft are a pollster and a bookie that don't often get it wrong. Clegg could be in for a fright perhaps...
@GraceBrodie Trolling? I've been writing exactly the same thing for three and a half years.
He can indeed keep his seat, but at what cost to all the other lid dem MPs not nearly so confident of that? Sooner or later they are going to start weighing in. Most likely after the May EU and local elections if they are truly dire for the lib dems.
Plus, I wouldn't put too much value in a near 4 year old poll.
{Redacted} (Me ;p) v The Daily Telegraph
The complainant considered that the newspaper had breached Clause 1 (Accuracy) of the Editors’ Code of Practice, in a comment piece about the popularity of the Conservative Party. The article referenced a poll of key seats, which the Conservative Party had rerun, obtaining a different result. The complainant said the Conservative Party’s result must be inaccurate and that as the Conservative’s version of the poll was now partially in the public domain, the poll should be fully disclosed in accordance with the rules of the British Polling Council. Alternatively, the complainant suggested that the poll did not exist, and if this was the case, its inclusion in the article was misleading.
Clause 1 (Accuracy) states “the press must take care not to publish inaccurate, misleading or distorted information” and that “a significant inaccuracy, misleading statement or distortion once recognised must be corrected, promptly and with due prominence”.
The Commission acknowledged the complainant’s concerns for the importance of good practice in polling techniques and over the results that the Conservative Party had achieved. However, the Commission had regard for the fact that the newspaper had set out the context of the poll and clearly attributed the results to the rerun undertaken by the Conservative Party. As such, readers were aware that the results were not independent, with the poll known to be undertaken by a party with an interest in achieving a favourable result. Readers were therefore able to make their own assessment about how much reliance to place on an internal, undisclosed poll and the Commission did not find the poll’s inclusion, or its partially public status, to be misleading or inaccurate in breach of Clause 1.
Further, whilst the Commission noted the complainant’s suggestion that the internal poll might not exist. This appeared to be speculation and in the absence of any specific information in this regard, no breach was noted.
There was no breach of the Code of the Editors’ Code of Practice.
Reference no. 135525
It is a curious policy. If the debates happen Miliband surely needs to focus his fire on Cameron. Targetting Clegg too will make it much more of a 2-v-1 situation and will encourage Clegg to have a go at Miliband.
It may be that Labour have concluded that the Lib Dems are just not going to recover and that their new support base will be less than 15 instead of in the low 20s. If that is the case there are too many opportunities for seat gains to mess about. Both the main parties will want to feed.
This failed woefully when the Lib Dems tried it. I suspect the main reason why was advertising what they were doing. It's the modern equivalent of handing over your battleplans to the enemy the night before. Even the Queen of Bithynia could beat a completely predictable opponent (cf Pharsalus).
"Dan Hodges humiliation is a disaster for Ed Miliband" would be the header of his next bile filled rant.
And so the inevitable Hodges twitter spat begins. Textbook.
As Lord Ashcroft also noted on the Lib Dem decapitation strategy of 2005 (see page 304 of this report)
@Danny565 wrote :
"But the problem is, there AREN'T many Lib Dem activists left in Sheffield (or anywhere in the general region for that matter) after their shellackings in local elections in recent years. By contrast, there's going to be a whole army of Labour activists from all over the Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire, who won't have to worry about any of the other Sheffield seats since they're in the bag for Labour and so will be able to campaign hard in Hallam."
................................................................................
Frankly any serious PBer who thinks Clegg is in any danger of losing in Sheffield Hallam requires medical attention of the padded cell variety.
On the flip side you and likeminded fellow travellers are providing hours of rib tickling chortleness for the rest of us and on that basis perhaps we might encourage your clinicians to allow you to post such humour from the secure facilities on a daily basis ?!?
At least I got in a Godfather reference.
At the last election, quite a few Tories assisted Nigel Farage against John Bercow. Now that really was a completely unjustifiable self-indulgence.
Looking at the markets on offer, if you fancied Lab to win and the Conservatives to do badly, you could have £60 on UKIP to beat The Cons in a match bet at 4/6 with Lads, and £47 on Labour to win at 11/10 with Hills
win £93 if it finished Lab/UKIP/Con
lose £7 if it were Lab/Con/UKIP
lose £7 if it were UKIP/Lab/Con
lose £7 if it were UKIP/Con/Lab
lose £107 if Con win
Table 5 says it all: At the last general election, Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat candidate, was elected as MP in this constituency. Had you known on the day of the election that the Liberal Democrats would enter a coalition government with the Conservative Pa
rty how would you have voted?
If you make THOSE figures into % you get:
LD 43%
LAB 27%
CON 20%
AP 11%
Prob was not the answer the sponsor was hoping for...
Mr. Eagles, as always your historical knowledge is weaker than Softy Walter. For a start, Hannibal beat one Scipio in battle (and his brother killed two of them), but (even more importantly) Hannibal was recalled to Rome.
I prefer to rely on the wisdom of Scipio Africanus (a better general than Caesar) who said that Hannibal had the better battle plan at Zama. Of course, if you think Scipio was an idiot not worth listening to...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10646056/Gordon-Brown-warns-Scots-independence-means-losing-British-state-pension.html
There's alot of confusion about state pensions. Nobody has paid anything in. Even OGH made this mistake recently. Governments make promises to people and they pay the cashflow of pensions by borrowing. It is a 'pay as you go' system, not a funded one.
Salmond can promise old Scots what he likes. The issue is will he be able to finance the cashflow? (and this applies to all putative Scottish public spending not just pensions). Would he either run a surplus or succesfully tap the government debt markets? If he tries to flounce away from a share of the UK's debt then he won't be borrowing much.
Calm down Clegg.
http://www.libdems.org.uk/30m_people_in_work
I'll leave you to supply an appropriate reference to an ancient campaign!
[EDIT: I see Sean_F has already made this point]
1) In Sheffield Hallam
2) On the indyref, and a question asking did Osborne's intervention make you more likely to vote yes or no
We need an IndyRef poll before we all go mad.
That said: huge public-sector workforce, northern, suburban, lots of liberal academics who work at the university. All demographics swinging heavily away from the Lib Dems to Labour.... *whistles*
http://www.bigissue.com/features/3549/below-the-line-i-am-a-guerrilla-fighter
On present polling everything under 10% is gone. It is what our American cousins would call a target rich environment for both major parties.
There are some names on that list that I would like to hold on because I think they really contribute but they are testing the theory of incumbency to its limits.
I also look forward to the English Democrats announcing their decapitation strategy against Ed Miliband in their Doncaster heartland.
With similar comical results.
Those who know the constituency - is the vote there largely a personal one for Nick Clegg, or is it now a rock-solid LibDem enclave? Is there any chance that if Clegg leaves politics, it returns to the Tories?
Point of order Mr. Chairman, I don't think there is an evidence to suggest that Hitler thought invading Russia in the winter was a good idea.
Your point about Hannibal thinking he could give Scipio a right good hiding, is well made, totally justified and once again exposes Mr. Dancer's inexplicable blind spot.
Nick Clegg has a good personal vote, some of it is down to the fact the natives like having as their MP the Deputy PM, some also think he's been hardly done by the media and the Tories.
*"Keeping the Workers in Work!" What a wonderfully Soviet slogan. Jaw-jutting silhouettes of Cameron and Clegg under vast billowing Red - er Blue and Yellow - flags.....
Another £10 to the GE winnings it is.
Keeps them off the streets.
By contrast, Sheffield Hallam is almost the polar opposite of Cornwall -- public-sector workers and liberal academics are disgusted with the actions of the Lib Dems, and crucially, they have a ready-made home in Labour.
(TheScreamingEagles points out SH is very wealthy, but I think that's something of a red herring -- even wealthy public-sector workers tend to be very angry at the Coalition, which isn't exactly surprising since they've been telling them their wastes of spaces who are holding the country back.)
Does this mean Julian Huppert is vulnerable in Cambridge?? Fascinating battle in the UK's new boom town.
By contrast, I think we could potentially see some Lib Dem MPs in the southwest with precarious majorities of <5% manage to cling on. I don't think Lib Dem MPs will be suffering anything close to a uniform swing against them.
But there will be a thread on Scotland autopublishing around 8pm and it's a thread that will need your contributions on it.
Stop Sean, Stop !!!
@Danny565 is keeping me in stitches and you posting rational analysis will chase him away !!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25915468
But that's the most erudite comment you've ever made on PB .... and I can only wish it inspires you to better things but obviously not to the detriment of your comedic Hallam interventions.
Just try and find an elegant equilibrium as my ARSE is wont to do.
"norman smith @BBCNormanS 4m
"Yob-time" #pmqs "Needs to be looked at" says @ed_miliband"
0-10 seats for the Lib Dems is 14-1 with Ladbrokes.
http://www.
youtube.com/watch?v=w1FIoNwfBQk&feature=kp
Perhaps the Knightsbridge March or something more dramatic with Lancasters.
I was going to say this could be Porkie, but then who ever heard of a cybernat who lives in Scotland ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10646056/Gordon-Brown-warns-Scots-independence-means-losing-British-state-pension.html
In the words of the late Tony Greig , it's goodnight Charlie for the Nats.
http://www.you
tube.com/watch?v=6dNSKV8158o
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10646056/Gordon-Brown-warns-Scots-independence-means-losing-British-state-pension.html
"But the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland (ICAS) recently published a report stating the document had failed to answer a series of key questions about pensions.
Despite the Nationalists’ claims to the contrary, the institute said funding the state pension in a separate Scotland would be "more of a challenge" because there would be fewer taxpayers for each OAP."