Just look at that Tory voters score – politicalbetting.com

System

Just look at that Tory voters score – politicalbetting.com

66% of Conservative voters likewise say that the government has achieved little in the 12 months since Rishi Sunak took overhttps://t.co/1Im67kfCAf pic.twitter.com/pCYhFPcTOU

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Test.

DavidL

The real first.

kle4

Sunak did not have an easy task necessarily. But he was supposed to be someone who could get things done. He had an early win over the NI Protocol (where his opponents alternated between saying it was awful, or that Boris had done all the work beforehand). But ultimately he hasn't delivered on the terms he set himself, and sold to others, and that's on him.

Treading water is a charitable interpretation at this point.

Andy_JS

Bangladesh 70/6 vs Netherlands.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/66858634

HYUFD

Inflation has come down and the Government has banned XL dogs and got the Windsor Framework done with the EU but yes beyond that not done much. Probably partly as Truss went overboard with what she did beyond what the country needed driven by laissez faire and low tax ideology

DavidL

Hmm... There is no doubt that the government has a competency perception issue but in the last 12 months we have:
avoided a forecast recession and achieved comparable growth the G7 after out performing them the year before.
Come pretty close to achieving Sunak's inflation target, which we will by the end of the year.
Reduced boat crossings by 30%, mainly thanks to the Albania deal.
Joined the TPP

There have, of course, been a rather longer list of failures but it seems to me that these numbers reflect the fact that the vast majority of us, even natural Tory supporters, are completely fed up with this lot and reluctant to give them credit for anything.

kle4

HYUFD said:

Inflation has come down and the Government has banned XL dogs and got the Windsor Framework done with the EU but yes beyond that not done much. Probably partly as Truss went overboard with what she did beyond what the country needed driven by laissez faire and low tax ideology

Given the source, this comment is a real condemnation of the last year.

kinabalu

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

londonpubman

Inflation = not sorted
NHS waiting lists = soaring
Boats = not under control
Borrowing = out of control
Economy = ****ed

Overall no hope no chance and I say this as a CON! 😡

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

Inflation has come down and the Government has banned XL dogs and got the Windsor Framework done with the EU but yes beyond that not done much. Probably partly as Truss went overboard with what she did beyond what the country needed driven by laissez faire and low tax ideology

They haven’t banned the XL Bully yet.

Another area where government over promise and under deliver.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/28/xl-bully-dog-police-officer-injured-attack-ban-bite/

DavidL

Andy_JS said:

Bangladesh 70/6 vs Netherlands.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/66858634

The Netherlands are surely the team that has outperformed by the most in the CWC, they have played like they belong.

England, of course, are nailed on for the team that has underperformed by the greatest margin.

londonpubman

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured @kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

DavidL

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

Indeed. There has been a real stepping up of the pace in his various legal travails in the last week and things have not really moved to his advantage.

kinabalu

HYUFD said:

Inflation has come down and the Government has banned XL dogs and got the Windsor Framework done with the EU but yes beyond that not done much. Probably partly as Truss went overboard with what she did beyond what the country needed driven by laissez faire and low tax ideology

Might be able to squeeze the ratchet smoking ban in before the election?

williamglenn

HYUFD said:

Inflation has come down and the Government has banned XL dogs and got the Windsor Framework done with the EU but yes beyond that not done much. Probably partly as Truss went overboard with what she did beyond what the country needed driven by laissez faire and low tax ideology

Have they?

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/local-news/xl-bully-dog-attack-ibstock-8864011

XL Bully dog attack in Ibstock kitchen leaves police officer in hospital with serious bite injuries

LostPassword

HYUFD said:

Inflation has come down and the Government has banned XL dogs and got the Windsor Framework done with the EU but yes beyond that not done much. Probably partly as Truss went overboard with what she did beyond what the country needed driven by laissez faire and low tax ideology

You missed out stopping the tax on meat.

kyf_100

Truly extraordinary poll. Who are the 34% who think they have actually achieved something?

bondegezou

DavidL said:

Hmm... There is no doubt that the government has a competency perception issue but in the last 12 months we have:
avoided a forecast recession and achieved comparable growth the G7 after out performing them the year before.
Come pretty close to achieving Sunak's inflation target, which we will by the end of the year.
Reduced boat crossings by 30%, mainly thanks to the Albania deal.
Joined the TPP

There have, of course, been a rather longer list of failures but it seems to me that these numbers reflect the fact that the vast majority of us, even natural Tory supporters, are completely fed up with this lot and reluctant to give them credit for anything.

Inflation was going to come down anyway. The TPP is a sideshow. However, the Albania deal was a good success, but the Tories can't talk about it because it detracts from their rhetoric that the only solution is to be ever harsher to asylum seekers via floating prison barges and Rwanda. The possibility that talking to other countries and making deals might work is verboten.

kinabalu

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

Indeed. There has been a real stepping up of the pace in his various legal travails in the last week and things have not really moved to his advantage.

He's up to his neck in it. Just need another few inches and that'll be it.

Stuartinromford

DavidL said:

Hmm... There is no doubt that the government has a competency perception issue but in the last 12 months we have:
avoided a forecast recession and achieved comparable growth the G7 after out performing them the year before.
Come pretty close to achieving Sunak's inflation target, which we will by the end of the year.
Reduced boat crossings by 30%, mainly thanks to the Albania deal.
Joined the TPP

There have, of course, been a rather longer list of failures but it seems to me that these numbers reflect the fact that the vast majority of us, even natural Tory supporters, are completely fed up with this lot and reluctant to give them credit for anything.

And I think voters are reasonably justified in saying... Is that it?

OK, +0.5% on GDP is better than -0.5%, but they both feel like another year of meh. And if you still have to pay for your housing, it's doubtful that you feel any better off.

Boat crossings are down on last year, which is genuine progress (achieved by boring Centrist Dad stuff), but they're still tacking a bit above 2021. And for some, the catharsis of planes to Rwanda is what's needed.

But yes, Sunak has the same problem as Major did in 1997. People are fed up with the Conservatives, and 2019 was the win that snapped the elastic of democracy.

Turns out that Blair wasn't really necessary.

kinabalu

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured @kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Wahay! I am not alone. I do not chunter into the void.

DavidL

bondegezou said:

DavidL said:

Hmm... There is no doubt that the government has a competency perception issue but in the last 12 months we have:
avoided a forecast recession and achieved comparable growth the G7 after out performing them the year before.
Come pretty close to achieving Sunak's inflation target, which we will by the end of the year.
Reduced boat crossings by 30%, mainly thanks to the Albania deal.
Joined the TPP

There have, of course, been a rather longer list of failures but it seems to me that these numbers reflect the fact that the vast majority of us, even natural Tory supporters, are completely fed up with this lot and reluctant to give them credit for anything.

Inflation was going to come down anyway. The TPP is a sideshow. However, the Albania deal was a good success, but the Tories can't talk about it because it detracts from their rhetoric that the only solution is to be ever harsher to asylum seekers via floating prison barges and Rwanda. The possibility that talking to other countries and making deals might work is verboten.

I thought that the Windsor accords was a very positive step in that direction. Since then we have rejoined Horizon, another success this year, but otherwise we have not really built on that positive mood music. That's disappointing.

DavidL

kinabalu said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured @kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Wahay! I am not alone. I do not chunter into the void.

Oh you do, as do all of us.

LostPassword

Stuartinromford said:

DavidL said:

Hmm... There is no doubt that the government has a competency perception issue but in the last 12 months we have:
avoided a forecast recession and achieved comparable growth the G7 after out performing them the year before.
Come pretty close to achieving Sunak's inflation target, which we will by the end of the year.
Reduced boat crossings by 30%, mainly thanks to the Albania deal.
Joined the TPP

There have, of course, been a rather longer list of failures but it seems to me that these numbers reflect the fact that the vast majority of us, even natural Tory supporters, are completely fed up with this lot and reluctant to give them credit for anything.

And I think voters are reasonably justified in saying... Is that it?

OK, +0.5% on GDP is better than -0.5%, but they both feel like another year of meh. And if you still have to pay for your housing, it's doubtful that you feel any better off.

Boat crossings are down on last year, which is genuine progress (achieved by boring Centrist Dad stuff), but they're still tacking a bit above 2021. And for some, the catharsis of planes to Rwanda is what's needed.

But yes, Sunak has the same problem as Major did in 1997. People are fed up with the Conservatives, and 2019 was the win that snapped the elastic of democracy.

Turns out that Blair wasn't really necessary.

Blair's big electoral achievement was the second landslide in 2001.

williamglenn

LostPassword said:

Stuartinromford said:

DavidL said:

Hmm... There is no doubt that the government has a competency perception issue but in the last 12 months we have:
avoided a forecast recession and achieved comparable growth the G7 after out performing them the year before.
Come pretty close to achieving Sunak's inflation target, which we will by the end of the year.
Reduced boat crossings by 30%, mainly thanks to the Albania deal.
Joined the TPP

There have, of course, been a rather longer list of failures but it seems to me that these numbers reflect the fact that the vast majority of us, even natural Tory supporters, are completely fed up with this lot and reluctant to give them credit for anything.

And I think voters are reasonably justified in saying... Is that it?

OK, +0.5% on GDP is better than -0.5%, but they both feel like another year of meh. And if you still have to pay for your housing, it's doubtful that you feel any better off.

Boat crossings are down on last year, which is genuine progress (achieved by boring Centrist Dad stuff), but they're still tacking a bit above 2021. And for some, the catharsis of planes to Rwanda is what's needed.

But yes, Sunak has the same problem as Major did in 1997. People are fed up with the Conservatives, and 2019 was the win that snapped the elastic of democracy.

Turns out that Blair wasn't really necessary.

Blair's big electoral achievement was the second landslide in 2001.

That was Hague's achievement.

kle4

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

Indeed. There has been a real stepping up of the pace in his various legal travails in the last week and things have not really moved to his advantage.

He's up to his neck in it. Just need another few inches and that'll be it.

Early next year will be a very weird time. He's going to be spending a lot of time in courtrooms in trial after trial (I'm assuming the Mar-a-Lago one will be pushed back), and he has to be there for those unlike the civil ones. He's going to step out side every day and rant about what has been happening, and he's already crossing the line for most criminal defendants even without limited gag orders, and since I doubt they'll jail him it'll probably be fine after fine after fine, even as his media backers go absolute nuts at the 'election interference'.

squareroot2

Just sent a postcard to my mother frim Germany. Postage cost 95 euro cents ie about 83p

Vice versa from the UK to Germany is £ 1.85.
We are being ripped off and we are not getting a 6 day delivery either. In some places they haven't had mail for weeks.

Sean_F

The economy has probably performed a bit on the upside, in the past year, and they have had success on the boats, but no one is interested, really.

kle4

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

LostPassword

Guardian article states the Labour lead is 15pp in the latest Opinium poll, but can't find an article with the full figures.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/28/rishi-sunak-to-double-down-on-anti-green-policies-in-kings-speech

Last poll had 16pp lead.

Theuniondivvie

kinabalu said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured @kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Wahay! I am not alone. I do not chunter into the void.

That was TimS I think..

AlistairM

Absolutely barking.

Bumped into Piers Corbyn who was taking part in latest Palestine demo in central London. Happy as Larry to deny the crimes of Hamas.
https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1718250318775963749

Sean_F

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

stodge

Afternoon all

Just beat the rain home having stopped off at Westfield Stratford. Pumpkins (£1 each) running out at M&S. I suggested to Mrs Stodge two limes (40p) each could do the job. Mrs Stodge far from impressed but in these financially stringent times perhaps a little imagination required.

The polls haven't moved this year - the last Techne numbers identical to the poll from 2-3 January. YouGov 48-24 but was 46-25 on January 4th. R&W was 44-26 last Monday (was 47-27 in first January poll). Opinium was 44-28 a fortnight ago, was 45-29 in 11th January.

It may be the Truss fiasco sealed the Conservative fate - perhaps all Sunak can do is run hard to stand still.

carnforth

squareroot2 said:

Just sent a postcard to my mother frim Germany. Postage cost 95 euro cents ie about 83p

Vice versa from the UK to Germany is £ 1.85.
We are being ripped off and we are not getting a 6 day delivery either. In some places they haven't had mail for weeks.

Does Germany have a special postcard rate? We used to, but got rid of it.

Just be happy you aren't Danish:

https://www.statista.com/chart/18283/postage-cost-of-a-standard-letter-in-european-countries/

LostPassword

AlistairM said:

Absolutely barking.

Bumped into Piers Corbyn who was taking part in latest Palestine demo in central London. Happy as Larry to deny the crimes of Hamas.
https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1718250318775963749

Once you start denying reality on one thing it becomes easier to do so for another. And another. Piers is up to quite a few now. Is there anything where he's still in touch with reality?

Nigelb

LostPassword said:

AlistairM said:

Absolutely barking.

Bumped into Piers Corbyn who was taking part in latest Palestine demo in central London. Happy as Larry to deny the crimes of Hamas.
https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1718250318775963749

Once you start denying reality on one thing it becomes easier to do so for another. And another. Piers is up to quite a few now. Is there anything where he's still in touch with reality?

It will be lizards next.

HYUFD

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

LostPassword

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

Will be not have the nomination sewn up by then?

londonpubman

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

I still think Mike Pence has an outside chance but I know some others disagree. It doesn't look like it will be DeSantis now. Maybe someone else will come through maybe Haley (is she still in it?). I don't know but I do think that a new candidate will come through, lots of time yet.

bondegezou

kle4 said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

Indeed. There has been a real stepping up of the pace in his various legal travails in the last week and things have not really moved to his advantage.

He's up to his neck in it. Just need another few inches and that'll be it.

Early next year will be a very weird time. He's going to be spending a lot of time in courtrooms in trial after trial (I'm assuming the Mar-a-Lago one will be pushed back), and he has to be there for those unlike the civil ones. He's going to step out side every day and rant about what has been happening, and he's already crossing the line for most criminal defendants even without limited gag orders, and since I doubt they'll jail him it'll probably be fine after fine after fine, even as his media backers go absolute nuts at the 'election interference'.

He's been fined $5000 and $10000 so far for violating a gag order, peanuts compared to what fundraising off the back of the fines will net him. However, the fines will keep going up. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a 24 hour jail sentence for contempt of court. That'll be interesting.

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

LostPassword said:

Stuartinromford said:

DavidL said:

Hmm... There is no doubt that the government has a competency perception issue but in the last 12 months we have:
avoided a forecast recession and achieved comparable growth the G7 after out performing them the year before.
Come pretty close to achieving Sunak's inflation target, which we will by the end of the year.
Reduced boat crossings by 30%, mainly thanks to the Albania deal.
Joined the TPP

There have, of course, been a rather longer list of failures but it seems to me that these numbers reflect the fact that the vast majority of us, even natural Tory supporters, are completely fed up with this lot and reluctant to give them credit for anything.

And I think voters are reasonably justified in saying... Is that it?

OK, +0.5% on GDP is better than -0.5%, but they both feel like another year of meh. And if you still have to pay for your housing, it's doubtful that you feel any better off.

Boat crossings are down on last year, which is genuine progress (achieved by boring Centrist Dad stuff), but they're still tacking a bit above 2021. And for some, the catharsis of planes to Rwanda is what's needed.

But yes, Sunak has the same problem as Major did in 1997. People are fed up with the Conservatives, and 2019 was the win that snapped the elastic of democracy.

Turns out that Blair wasn't really necessary.

Blair's big electoral achievement was the second landslide in 2001.

That was Hague's achievement.

More Blair's being the only Labour PM to leave a growing economy, low unemployment and low inflation and few strikes after a full first term in power.

Had the economy been in poor shape in 2001 Hague likely would have done much better

bondegezou

AlistairM said:

Absolutely barking.

Bumped into Piers Corbyn who was taking part in latest Palestine demo in central London. Happy as Larry to deny the crimes of Hamas.
https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1718250318775963749

Is Larry actually happy? There were those reports recently about his possible health status, denied by No. 10.

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Inflation has come down and the Government has banned XL dogs and got the Windsor Framework done with the EU but yes beyond that not done much. Probably partly as Truss went overboard with what she did beyond what the country needed driven by laissez faire and low tax ideology

Have they?

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/local-news/xl-bully-dog-attack-ibstock-8864011

XL Bully dog attack in Ibstock kitchen leaves police officer in hospital with serious bite injuries

'On 15 September the Prime Minister announced plans to ban American Bully XLs in the UK by the end of 2023'
https://www.battersea.org.uk/about-us/news/american-bully-xl-ban-what-does-mean-owners#:~:text=On 15 September the Prime,can over the coming months.

MarqueeMark

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured @kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Agree. Anyone following the various court proceedings in various US states has to come to the conclusion that by mid-year 2024, Trump will be jailed for a VERY long time - and not being Federal crimes but instead state ones, he can't pardon himself even if somehow he steals the election.

America is not going to be so perverse as to elect a guy who is spending the rest of his days in an orange jumpsuit, for crimes related to stealing an election result and trying to overthrow democracy. It just isn't.

There may still be millions of MAGA maniacs riled up, but the independents aren't going to rally to the Trump flag. And the Democrats are going to be fired up to vote like never before, even if their candidate is as underwhelming as Biden. Because Biden represents democratic ideals - and Trump represents everything that puts democracy at grave risk.

kle4

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

They are complete cowards but they are also in a bind - the number of voters who genuinely will be for Trump even if he is convicted might be lower than polls currently claim it to be, but it won't be zero, and in an otherwise tight race they know that will screw them if they try to go another way.

bondegezou

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

From your lips to God's ears.

DavidL

squareroot2 said:

Just sent a postcard to my mother frim Germany. Postage cost 95 euro cents ie about 83p

Vice versa from the UK to Germany is £ 1.85.
We are being ripped off and we are not getting a 6 day delivery either. In some places they haven't had mail for weeks.

Just another example of our public and quasi-public services which charge more but provide less.

bondegezou

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Inflation has come down and the Government has banned XL dogs and got the Windsor Framework done with the EU but yes beyond that not done much. Probably partly as Truss went overboard with what she did beyond what the country needed driven by laissez faire and low tax ideology

Have they?

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/local-news/xl-bully-dog-attack-ibstock-8864011

XL Bully dog attack in Ibstock kitchen leaves police officer in hospital with serious bite injuries

'On 15 September the Prime Minister announced plans to ban American Bully XLs in the UK by the end of 2023'
https://www.battersea.org.uk/about-us/news/american-bully-xl-ban-what-does-mean-owners#:~:text=On 15 September the Prime,can over the coming months.

We've got 17.7% of the year left.

Nigelb

bondegezou said:

kle4 said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

Indeed. There has been a real stepping up of the pace in his various legal travails in the last week and things have not really moved to his advantage.

He's up to his neck in it. Just need another few inches and that'll be it.

Early next year will be a very weird time. He's going to be spending a lot of time in courtrooms in trial after trial (I'm assuming the Mar-a-Lago one will be pushed back), and he has to be there for those unlike the civil ones. He's going to step out side every day and rant about what has been happening, and he's already crossing the line for most criminal defendants even without limited gag orders, and since I doubt they'll jail him it'll probably be fine after fine after fine, even as his media backers go absolute nuts at the 'election interference'.

He's been fined $5000 and $10000 so far for violating a gag order, peanuts compared to what fundraising off the back of the fines will net him. However, the fines will keep going up. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a 24 hour jail sentence for contempt of court. That'll be interesting.

Almost anyone else would have had bail revoked for those contempts.

In one sense Trump’s scofflaw tactics are working, as judges have tried to avoid directly confronting his behaviour. But there’s also a cumulative effect, which I think will end up doing for him.

ydoethur

AlistairM said:

Absolutely barking.

Bumped into Piers Corbyn who was taking part in latest Palestine demo in central London. Happy as Larry to deny the crimes of Hamas.
https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1718250318775963749

Harpin should take that back. Larry although generally pro-Palestinian doesn’t deny or condone the crimes of Hamas:

https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1712161238401110334

HYUFD

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after Super Tuesday most GOP delegates would still not yet have been picked (Florida, Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania and California yet to vote for example) and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtaken. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it. While the US constitution does not prevent convicted felons in jail from running for President, it doesn't say they have a constitutional right to run either, so Congress could in theory pass a law banning them from doing so

LostPassword

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it

Would such a law be Constitutional?

kle4

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it

I suppose 0.1% chance is still technically a chance.

Though it is surprising to me that given several states don't allow ex-convicts to even vote, that they do allow ex-convicts to run for office.

I think both should be possible, but it seems strange to say there should be continued punishment preventing you from voting, but want to run the state/country? No problem.

ydoethur

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it. While the US constitution does not prevent convicted felons in jail from running for President, it doesn't say they have a constitutional right to run either, so Congress could in theory pass a law banning them from doing so

Eugene Debs ran from prison while jailed on a federal charge, so I don’t think that would wash.

Where it might get murky is if he’s jailed in Georgia, which bans felons from voting.

So if he’s ineligible to vote in his usual state of residence(!) is he able to run?

MarqueeMark

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

It is quite possible that there will be no time to get anybody on the ballot for the Republicans other than Trump, but come November he will be an enourmous embarrassment to democracy - and Biden wins all 50 states.

All those Republican MAGA Congresman who have been snug in Trump's lower intestine will be desperately trying to distance themselves. But social media will be having none of it, reminding them of their every word praising Trump to the heavens.

It will be an interesting election night. Even Trump will find it impossible to claim he hasn't lost within the first hours of the results coming in.

Stuartinromford

squareroot2 said:

Just sent a postcard to my mother frim Germany. Postage cost 95 euro cents ie about 83p

Vice versa from the UK to Germany is £ 1.85.
We are being ripped off and we are not getting a 6 day delivery either. In some places they haven't had mail for weeks.

Wasn't there a time when a letter to Europe was the same as first class in the UK?

bondegezou

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after Super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it. While the US constitution does not prevent convicted felons in jail from running for President, it doesn't say they have a constitutional right to run either, so Congress could in theory pass a law banning them from doing so

On present polling, he is likely to win every state up to and including Super Tuesday, and they're all (or mostly?) winner-tales-all, aren't they?

ydoethur

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

It is quite possible that there will be no time to get anybody on the ballot for the Republicans other than Trump, but come November he will be an enourmous embarrassment to democracy - and Biden wins all 50 states.

All those Republican MAGA Congresman who have been snug in Trump's lower intestine will be desperately trying to distance themselves. But social media will be having none of it, reminding them of their every word praising Trump to the heavens.

It will be an interesting election night. Even Trump will find it impossible to claim he hasn't lost within the first hours of the results coming in.

Incorrect.

If he’s in prison he will have to get any statement cleared by prison authorities which might take a couple of days.

ydoethur

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it

Would such a law be Constitutional?

Even if it was, would the current Supreme Court uphold the constitution or their personal political views?

kle4

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

It is quite possible that there will be no time to get anybody on the ballot for the Republicans other than Trump, but come November he will be an enourmous embarrassment to democracy - and Biden wins all 50 states.

All those Republican MAGA Congresman who have been snug in Trump's lower intestine will be desperately trying to distance themselves. But social media will be having none of it, reminding them of their every word praising Trump to the heavens.

It will be an interesting election night. Even Trump will find it impossible to claim he hasn't lost within the first hours of the results coming in.

I think you underestimate him. This is a man who has at various times claimed to have won every single state in the 2020 election.

My worry is that if he is convicted he will still be strong enough in his grip on the party that they feel they have to support him through at least one inevitable appeal, and as you note it quikcly becomes a problem that there may be no time to get someone else on the ballot.

For all Trump's claims the timing of the indictments after he announced he was running (way earlier than is usual) is super convenient, and why not earlier, the only chance of stopping him for that reason might have been if he had been charged much earlier. The complexities of the law, alas.

bondegezou

ydoethur said:

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it

Would such a law be Constitutional?

Even if it was, would the current Supreme Court uphold the constitution or their personal political views?

The latter, of course, but their personal political views might be that the Republican party would do better lancing the boil.

BartholomewRoberts

MaxPB said:

nico679 said:

MaxPB said:

nico679 said:

Is it legitimate to flatten a building housing hundreds of civilians to kill a few Hamas fighters ?

Where do you draw the line ?

The answer is no, hence the ground invasion which will result in far, far fewer civilian deaths in Gaza than aerial bombardment but at a huge cost for Israel both in blood and treasure.

If that had been the case then civilian casualties would surely have been much lower .

I don't think we know what the civilian casualties look like, the hospital incident is the most instructive here. Reported Hamas/PHO as an Israeli strike that killed hundreds of civilians, then increased to over 500, later after investigating independent sources now say well under a 100 died (French media report 10-50 according to French intelligence) due to an errant missile fired from Gaza at Israel. At a stroke we've taken at least 450 off the official 4000 death toll reported by Hamas and repeated by the UN/WHO.

That's not to minimise the suffering, yet the true number of civilian deaths will be substantially lower and in a war there will always be collateral damage and civilians have had weeks of notice now to leave certain areas.

Well said. Its an old saying, but true nonetheless, that in war the first casualty is truth itself.

How many innocent civilians have died in Gaza? No idea is the only honest answer. I'd estimate 10% of the official report, so about 400 would be my guess, but who knows, could be more, could be fewer.

However many its both too many, and unavoidable.

Hopefully after Hamas are eliminated then new Palestinian leaders can arise who will actually put their own citizens first, rather than use them as human shields (like Hamas) or simply enrich themselves and spurn the opportunity for peace and a state of the their own (like Arafat).

MattW

Nigelb said:

bondegezou said:

kle4 said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

Indeed. There has been a real stepping up of the pace in his various legal travails in the last week and things have not really moved to his advantage.

He's up to his neck in it. Just need another few inches and that'll be it.

Early next year will be a very weird time. He's going to be spending a lot of time in courtrooms in trial after trial (I'm assuming the Mar-a-Lago one will be pushed back), and he has to be there for those unlike the civil ones. He's going to step out side every day and rant about what has been happening, and he's already crossing the line for most criminal defendants even without limited gag orders, and since I doubt they'll jail him it'll probably be fine after fine after fine, even as his media backers go absolute nuts at the 'election interference'.

He's been fined $5000 and $10000 so far for violating a gag order, peanuts compared to what fundraising off the back of the fines will net him. However, the fines will keep going up. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a 24 hour jail sentence for contempt of court. That'll be interesting.

Almost anyone else would have had bail revoked for those contempts.

In one sense Trump’s scofflaw tactics are working, as judges have tried to avoid directly confronting his behaviour. But there’s also a cumulative effect, which I think will end up doing for him.

Trump has also been found by the Judge in New York to be "not a credible witness" when he testified on oath.

I'd hope for a 14 day or 21 day jail sentence for contempt, and/or imprisonment until trial by revocation of his bail since he is in comprehensive violation.

The several Judges are being careful and using kid gloves.

SandraMc

This week on the TV quiz "The Chase" a contestant was asked: " The wife of which British Prime Minister gave birth in 2010 to a daughter named Florence?" She replied: "Winston Churchill." When we study a public opinion poll, we need to remember it probably contains the views of people like her.

ClippP

DavidL said:

squareroot2 said:

Just sent a postcard to my mother frim Germany. Postage cost 95 euro cents ie about 83p

Vice versa from the UK to Germany is £ 1.85.
We are being ripped off and we are not getting a 6 day delivery either. In some places they haven't had mail for weeks.

Just another example of our public and quasi-public services which charge more but provide less.

Indeed yes. It was much better before it was privatised. Like water, schools etc etc

Do the Tories really know what they are doing?

HYUFD

bondegezou said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after Super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it. While the US constitution does not prevent convicted felons in jail from running for President, it doesn't say they have a constitutional right to run either, so Congress could in theory pass a law banning them from doing so

On present polling, he is likely to win every state up to and including Super Tuesday, and they're all (or mostly?) winner-tales-all, aren't they?

They are not all WTA and states like New York, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Georgia etc do not vote until after Super Tuesday.

There is also no guarantee Trump wins the likes of Iowa either which he lost in the 2016 GOP primaries and caucuses

SirNorfolkPassmore

On topic, I wonder if, looking back, Sunak missed his best chance to go to the polls off the back of the last Budget and Windsor Framework?

He was well behind in the polls, but at least appeared to have a little momentum - new PM, line drawn under the chaos, serious on the challenges facing the economy, serious on dealing with deficiencies in Johnson's Brexit, and with some new pledges about what he wanted to achieve with his Premiership. Yes, he'd probably have lost - but I suspect he'd have got some bounce just for being bold with it, and he certainly had more goodwill, so it might well have been reasonably close.

Now it's moved into classic Travolta-Micawber strategy. And maybe something will turn up, but it doesn't look terribly likely. Meanwhile, there is no momentum any more, the goodwill has dissipated, and there is a strong sense (reflected in this poll) that there is nothing in the ULEZ non-compliant tank at all.

HYUFD

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it

Would such a law be Constitutional?

There is no constitutional right to run for President from jail, just no bar to doing so but a law passed by Congress and signed by the President could override that

LostPassword

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

It is quite possible that there will be no time to get anybody on the ballot for the Republicans other than Trump, but come November he will be an enourmous embarrassment to democracy - and Biden wins all 50 states.

All those Republican MAGA Congresman who have been snug in Trump's lower intestine will be desperately trying to distance themselves. But social media will be having none of it, reminding them of their every word praising Trump to the heavens.

It will be an interesting election night. Even Trump will find it impossible to claim he hasn't lost within the first hours of the results coming in.

I'd like to think that is right, but I think that the vast majority of GOP voters will prefer to conclude that the trial and court were rigged against Trump rather than to abandon support for Trump/opposition to the Democrats.

US politics is so polarised that they will choose their side rather than the rule of law.

I don't think it's impossible that an imprisoned Trump wins election. The most likely barrier to such a scenario is that appeals against his conviction delay his imprisonment past the election date.

MarqueeMark

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after Super Tuesday most GOP delegates would still not yet have been picked (Florida, Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania and California yet to vote for example) and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtaken. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it. While the US constitution does not prevent convicted felons in jail from running for President, it doesn't say they have a constitutional right to run either, so Congress could in theory pass a law banning them from doing so

A change in the Constitution might be needed. Although if it is Trump being the candidate if they don't, then maybe enough Republicans will desert Trump to give themselves a different offering to the voters.

kle4

HYUFD said:

bondegezou said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after Super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it. While the US constitution does not prevent convicted felons in jail from running for President, it doesn't say they have a constitutional right to run either, so Congress could in theory pass a law banning them from doing so

On present polling, he is likely to win every state up to and including Super Tuesday, and they're all (or mostly?) winner-tales-all, aren't they?

They are not all WTA and states like New York, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Georgia etc do not vote until after Super Tuesday.

There is also no guarantee Trump wins the likes of Iowa either which he lost in the 2016 GOP primaries and caucuses

They should have learned their lessons when he claimed Iowa was rigged and said he won anyway, and still does to this day.

DecrepiterJohnL

squareroot2 said:

Just sent a postcard to my mother frim Germany. Postage cost 95 euro cents ie about 83p

Vice versa from the UK to Germany is £ 1.85.
We are being ripped off and we are not getting a 6 day delivery either. In some places they haven't had mail for weeks.

Anecdata: Yesterday I received letters from my bank and the NHS, both dated 10 days earlier. Something is badly wrong with the Royal Mail.

LostPassword

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it

Would such a law be Constitutional?

There is no constitutional right to run for President from jail, just no bar to doing so but a law passed by Congress and signed by the President could override that

The reason I ask is because - besides the qualifications in the constitution itself - it would seem to be a State matter who they allow on the ballot, rather than a Federal matter.

So I'd expect a State law to bar a convicted felon from the ballot would be Constitutional, but a Federal law I'm less sure about.

MarqueeMark

londonpubman said:

Inflation = not sorted
NHS waiting lists = soaring
Boats = not under control
Borrowing = out of control
Economy = ****ed

Overall no hope no chance and I say this as a CON! 😡

None of those will improve under Starmer.

None.

kle4

LostPassword said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

It is quite possible that there will be no time to get anybody on the ballot for the Republicans other than Trump, but come November he will be an enourmous embarrassment to democracy - and Biden wins all 50 states.

All those Republican MAGA Congresman who have been snug in Trump's lower intestine will be desperately trying to distance themselves. But social media will be having none of it, reminding them of their every word praising Trump to the heavens.

It will be an interesting election night. Even Trump will find it impossible to claim he hasn't lost within the first hours of the results coming in.

I'd like to think that is right, but I think that the vast majority of GOP voters will prefer to conclude that the trial and court were rigged against Trump rather than to abandon support for Trump/opposition to the Democrats.

US politics is so polarised that they will choose their side rather than the rule of law.

I don't think it's impossible that an imprisoned Trump wins election. The most likely barrier to such a scenario is that appeals against his conviction delay his imprisonment past the election date.

His supporters have been told the investigations are rigged, the trials are rigged, day in day out for months or years. Their media reinforces it every day, they have talking heads saying Presidents and even ex-Presidents are literally above the law (except President Biden for some reason).

I just don't see where this belief they will this time wake up if he is convicted comes from. A handful of polls vs the endless series of assertions from top politicians that they will still back him even then, or even those who have urged a different candidate (lilke Kemp in Georgia or the other candidates like Pence) still saying they will back him as nominee even if he is convicted?

stodge

MarqueeMark said:

londonpubman said:

Inflation = not sorted
NHS waiting lists = soaring
Boats = not under control
Borrowing = out of control
Economy = ****ed

Overall no hope no chance and I say this as a CON! 😡

None of those will improve under Starmer.

None.

You don't mind if we don't just take your word for it?

kle4

MarqueeMark said:

londonpubman said:

Inflation = not sorted
NHS waiting lists = soaring
Boats = not under control
Borrowing = out of control
Economy = ****ed

Overall no hope no chance and I say this as a CON! 😡

None of those will improve under Starmer.

None.

In which case he will face consequences for that in due course. But he will be given some time to try. Sunal won't, since he's had time and the party more.

HYUFD

LostPassword said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

It is quite possible that there will be no time to get anybody on the ballot for the Republicans other than Trump, but come November he will be an enourmous embarrassment to democracy - and Biden wins all 50 states.

All those Republican MAGA Congresman who have been snug in Trump's lower intestine will be desperately trying to distance themselves. But social media will be having none of it, reminding them of their every word praising Trump to the heavens.

It will be an interesting election night. Even Trump will find it impossible to claim he hasn't lost within the first hours of the results coming in.

I'd like to think that is right, but I think that the vast majority of GOP voters will prefer to conclude that the trial and court were rigged against Trump rather than to abandon support for Trump/opposition to the Democrats.

US politics is so polarised that they will choose their side rather than the rule of law.

I don't think it's impossible that an imprisoned Trump wins election. The most likely barrier to such a scenario is that appeals against his conviction delay his imprisonment past the election date.

52% of Republicans wouldn't vote for Trump if he was in jail on election day, only 28% definitely would.

That 28% is enough to ensure Trump still got the highest 3rd party vote since Perot but nowhere near enough to give him any chance of beating Biden in the general election

https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

ydoethur

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it

Would such a law be Constitutional?

There is no constitutional right to run for President from jail, just no bar to doing so but a law passed by Congress and signed by the President could override that

The issue being that all natural born citizens* are eligible to run under the constitution.

Such a law might therefore be held unconstitutional.

*Or people who held citizenship from ratification, but even Biden and Trump aren’t *that* old.

Sean_F

No law barring Trump from standing would get through the House, and SCOTUS would likely strike it down.

This discussion is just wishful thinking. I would hate Trump to win, but it would not surprise me.

kle4

ydoethur said:

AlistairM said:

Absolutely barking.

Bumped into Piers Corbyn who was taking part in latest Palestine demo in central London. Happy as Larry to deny the crimes of Hamas.
https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1718250318775963749

Harpin should take that back. Larry although generally pro-Palestinian doesn’t deny or condone the crimes of Hamas:

https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1712161238401110334

If Larry can do it I don't know why others struggle with it.

kle4

Sean_F said:

No law barring Trump from standing would get through the House, and SCOTUS would likely strike it down.

This discussion is just wishful thinking. I would hate Trump to win, but it would not surprise me.

If was only one person who suggested it!

HYUFD

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it

Would such a law be Constitutional?

There is no constitutional right to run for President from jail, just no bar to doing so but a law passed by Congress and signed by the President could override that

The reason I ask is because - besides the qualifications in the constitution itself - it would seem to be a State matter who they allow on the ballot, rather than a Federal matter.

So I'd expect a State law to bar a convicted felon from the ballot would be Constitutional, but a Federal law I'm less sure about.

US Federal law overrides State law unless it is expressly against the Constitution or beyond its powers which this wouldn't be, certainly if he was convicted in a Federal rather than State court eg in DC where his first trial is.

Even if it was decided to be state only Trump could only be certain of being on the ballot in states where Republicans hold both the governor's mansion and state legislature, which is only a minority of states and not enough to win the EC

Sean_F

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

It is quite possible that there will be no time to get anybody on the ballot for the Republicans other than Trump, but come November he will be an enourmous embarrassment to democracy - and Biden wins all 50 states.

All those Republican MAGA Congresman who have been snug in Trump's lower intestine will be desperately trying to distance themselves. But social media will be having none of it, reminding them of their every word praising Trump to the heavens.

It will be an interesting election night. Even Trump will find it impossible to claim he hasn't lost within the first hours of the results coming in.

I'd like to think that is right, but I think that the vast majority of GOP voters will prefer to conclude that the trial and court were rigged against Trump rather than to abandon support for Trump/opposition to the Democrats.

US politics is so polarised that they will choose their side rather than the rule of law.

I don't think it's impossible that an imprisoned Trump wins election. The most likely barrier to such a scenario is that appeals against his conviction delay his imprisonment past the election date.

52% of Republicans wouldn't vote for Trump if he was in jail on election day, only 28% definitely would.

That 28% is enough to ensure Trump still got the highest 3rd party vote since Perot but nowhere near enough to give him any chance of beating Biden in the general election

https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

Come the day, 90% of Republicans would persuade themselves that the trial was rigged.

Luckyguy1983

MarqueeMark said:

londonpubman said:

Inflation = not sorted
NHS waiting lists = soaring
Boats = not under control
Borrowing = out of control
Economy = ****ed

Overall no hope no chance and I say this as a CON! 😡

None of those will improve under Starmer.

None.

Correct, but we should expect them to have improved under a Tory Government with a working majority. The wilful inaction has been and continues to be disgraceful.

ydoethur

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it

Would such a law be Constitutional?

There is no constitutional right to run for President from jail, just no bar to doing so but a law passed by Congress and signed by the President could override that

The reason I ask is because - besides the qualifications in the constitution itself - it would seem to be a State matter who they allow on the ballot, rather than a Federal matter.

So I'd expect a State law to bar a convicted felon from the ballot would be Constitutional, but a Federal law I'm less sure about.

US Federal law overrides State law unless it is expressly against the Constitution which this wouldn't be

It overrides state law on strictly defined Federal matters. Outwith certain restrictions in the Constitution voting is not a federal matter.

(If Federal law overrode state law in all things abortion would be legal, wouldn’t it?)

LostPassword

DecrepiterJohnL said:

squareroot2 said:

Just sent a postcard to my mother frim Germany. Postage cost 95 euro cents ie about 83p

Vice versa from the UK to Germany is £ 1.85.
We are being ripped off and we are not getting a 6 day delivery either. In some places they haven't had mail for weeks.

Anecdata: Yesterday I received letters from my bank and the NHS, both dated 10 days earlier. Something is badly wrong with the Royal Mail.

Last month I posted my watch from Ireland back to London to be repaired by its maker.

If the day I posted it was day 0, tracking information told me it had reached Britain on day 2. It was delivered to the watchmaker - in London mind - on day 13. It's a mind-bogglingly bad level of service.

MattW

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after Super Tuesday most GOP delegates would still not yet have been picked (Florida, Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania and California yet to vote for example) and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtaken. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it. While the US constitution does not prevent convicted felons in jail from running for President, it doesn't say they have a constitutional right to run either, so Congress could in theory pass a law banning them from doing so

I don't see any reason why a criminal case (and I think it's the Georgia one) will wait until March.

The initial trial in that jurisdiction is no longer happening since both defendants who had requested speedy trials reached plea deals. That shortens the trial schedule by 3 months.

Of 18 Trump co-defendants in Georgia, 4 have already flipped, and offers have been made to a further six. For all I know they may all try and make deals, but I predict that Rudy Giuliani will not be accepted, as he is on record declaring that the concept of Truth means nothing.

Most of the Prosecutors and Judges (except the Trump appointed incompetent in Florida) seem to be of the view that it is far better to have cases done quickly, and therefore an accurate record of Trump's alleged criminality for the public to vote upon.

That is surely correct.

If I had to call, I would predict the first Trump criminal trial starting in January (probably Jan 4th), and probably in Georgia.

Pulpstar

If my sums are right, England are about to go bottom unless Bangla somehow pull this one out the bag

HYUFD

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it

Would such a law be Constitutional?

There is no constitutional right to run for President from jail, just no bar to doing so but a law passed by Congress and signed by the President could override that

The reason I ask is because - besides the qualifications in the constitution itself - it would seem to be a State matter who they allow on the ballot, rather than a Federal matter.

So I'd expect a State law to bar a convicted felon from the ballot would be Constitutional, but a Federal law I'm less sure about.

US Federal law overrides State law unless it is expressly against the Constitution which this wouldn't be

It overrides state law on strictly defined Federal matters. Outwith certain restrictions in the Constitution voting is not a federal matter.

(If Federal law overrode state law in all things abortion would be legal, wouldn’t it?)

In most states it still is and it was legalised nationwide at Federal level, albeit SC

Andy_JS

Pulpstar said:

If my sums are right, England are about to go bottom unless Bangla somehow pull this one out the bag

A pity that Jimmy and Stuart couldn't play one or two matches. They would have done better than the useless team we've got. The last match was the first time that every England player in a ODI was over 30.

HYUFD

Sean_F said:

No law barring Trump from standing would get through the House, and SCOTUS would likely strike it down.

This discussion is just wishful thinking. I would hate Trump to win, but it would not surprise me.

20-30 Republicans refused to vote for Trump's handpicked choice in the House and Republicans in the Senate like Romney and Collins would also vote for such a ban.

They would rather DeSantis or Pence or Haley than a jailed Trump as GOP candidate

kle4

bondegezou said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after Super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it. While the US constitution does not prevent convicted felons in jail from running for President, it doesn't say they have a constitutional right to run either, so Congress could in theory pass a law banning them from doing so

On present polling, he is likely to win every state up to and including Super Tuesday, and they're all (or mostly?) winner-tales-all, aren't they?

Apparently Trump's supporters managed to get rules shifted to make it harder for even non winner take all states from giving out delegates, for instance by raising the threshold by which to receive delegates.

Doesn't really matter when Trump is so far ahead anyway - that is what would need to change, whether he has 100% or 90% of delegates come Super Tuesday doesn't seem like it will matter much.

The very earliest are proportional though, with different thresholds.

ydoethur

.

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it

Would such a law be Constitutional?

There is no constitutional right to run for President from jail, just no bar to doing so but a law passed by Congress and signed by the President could override that

The reason I ask is because - besides the qualifications in the constitution itself - it would seem to be a State matter who they allow on the ballot, rather than a Federal matter.

So I'd expect a State law to bar a convicted felon from the ballot would be Constitutional, but a Federal law I'm less sure about.

US Federal law overrides State law unless it is expressly against the Constitution which this wouldn't be

It overrides state law on strictly defined Federal matters. Outwith certain restrictions in the Constitution voting is not a federal matter.

(If Federal law overrode state law in all things abortion would be legal, wouldn’t it?)

In most states it still is and it was legalised nationwide at Federal level, albeit SC

Oh good grief.

Here we go again.

MattW

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it

Would such a law be Constitutional?

There is no constitutional right to run for President from jail, just no bar to doing so but a law passed by Congress and signed by the President could override that

The reason I ask is because - besides the qualifications in the constitution itself - it would seem to be a State matter who they allow on the ballot, rather than a Federal matter.

So I'd expect a State law to bar a convicted felon from the ballot would be Constitutional, but a Federal law I'm less sure about.

US Federal law overrides State law unless it is expressly against the Constitution or beyond its powers which this wouldn't be, certainly if he was convicted in a Federal rather than State court eg in DC where his first trial is.

Even if it was decided to be state only Trump could only be certain of being on the ballot in states where Republicans hold both the governor's mansion and state legislature, which is only a minority of states and not enough to win the EC

"Overrides" does not mean that State Law can be applied.

eg a President cannot issue a pardon for State convictions, which is why Trump is wetting his pants over the Washington and Georgia criminal cases (the Florida Judge is taking all the actions to prove herself a patsy).

There are also principled Republican Governors who have refused to swallow the Trumpist Kool Aid, or States where laws prevent them doing what Trump wants.

Carnyx

LostPassword said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

squareroot2 said:

Just sent a postcard to my mother frim Germany. Postage cost 95 euro cents ie about 83p

Vice versa from the UK to Germany is £ 1.85.
We are being ripped off and we are not getting a 6 day delivery either. In some places they haven't had mail for weeks.

Anecdata: Yesterday I received letters from my bank and the NHS, both dated 10 days earlier. Something is badly wrong with the Royal Mail.

Last month I posted my watch from Ireland back to London to be repaired by its maker.

If the day I posted it was day 0, tracking information told me it had reached Britain on day 2. It was delivered to the watchmaker - in London mind - on day 13. It's a mind-bogglingly bad level of service.

That'd mean it had to go through customs processing. I used to get parcels from overseas held up at the RM processing centre somewhere in the middle of the Midlands, routinely for a week or two - taking longer than their entire journey otherwise. Now I use Fedex if I can.

Andy_JS

LostPassword said:

Stuartinromford said:

DavidL said:

Hmm... There is no doubt that the government has a competency perception issue but in the last 12 months we have:
avoided a forecast recession and achieved comparable growth the G7 after out performing them the year before.
Come pretty close to achieving Sunak's inflation target, which we will by the end of the year.
Reduced boat crossings by 30%, mainly thanks to the Albania deal.
Joined the TPP

There have, of course, been a rather longer list of failures but it seems to me that these numbers reflect the fact that the vast majority of us, even natural Tory supporters, are completely fed up with this lot and reluctant to give them credit for anything.

And I think voters are reasonably justified in saying... Is that it?

OK, +0.5% on GDP is better than -0.5%, but they both feel like another year of meh. And if you still have to pay for your housing, it's doubtful that you feel any better off.

Boat crossings are down on last year, which is genuine progress (achieved by boring Centrist Dad stuff), but they're still tacking a bit above 2021. And for some, the catharsis of planes to Rwanda is what's needed.

But yes, Sunak has the same problem as Major did in 1997. People are fed up with the Conservatives, and 2019 was the win that snapped the elastic of democracy.

Turns out that Blair wasn't really necessary.

Blair's big electoral achievement was the second landslide in 2001.

He got 2 million votes fewer than Corbyn in 2017, which shows how low the turnout was in 2001.

kle4

MattW said:

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

londonpubman said:

kinabalu said:

Trump price drifting. Always a morale boost when that happens.

You can rest assured kinabalu. Trump will not become President again or even get the nomination. It's not happening!

Who will get the nomination? And do you think he will pull out, or the primary voters will, gods forbid, actually choose someone else?

Looking at the polling, I don’t see any route for Trump not to be nominee, and he has a real chance of winning.

His first criminal case is next March, if convicted and jailed there is polling evidence many GOP voters would then abandon him.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial

A Biden dream scenario of course is that Trump then narrowly fails to get the GOP nomination but almost half of Republicans still back him and then Trump takes those with him with an Independent candidacy from jail.

Biden then wins with just 40-45% of the vote, 35% for the official GOP candidate and 20-25% for Trump

The first case starts the day before Super Tuesday. That alone should ensure he wins those states handily, if he were not going to already.

Of course the delegates formally pick the nominee at the convention I believe, but it's a fiddly process - some of them might be required to nominate Trump by law, given he won the primaries in various states. I presume they have some kind of process to theoretically get around that, but unless Trump's support craters upon conviction (neither conviction nor cratering guaranteed) would the party bother, given the risk as you point out of a solo Trump run?

Even after super Tuesday most delegates would still not yet have been picked and as the GOP primaries run until June plenty of time for Trump to still be overtake. He would literally need to have won every state up to and including Super Tuesday to be near certain of the nomination even if convicted and jailed in his March criminal trial.

There is of course also the chance Congress passes a law signed by Biden banning those in jail from running for President in the event of a Trump criminal conviction and jail sentence, if say 20-30 GOP representatives defected and a few GOP Senators like Romney and Collins too vote for it

Would such a law be Constitutional?

There is no constitutional right to run for President from jail, just no bar to doing so but a law passed by Congress and signed by the President could override that

The reason I ask is because - besides the qualifications in the constitution itself - it would seem to be a State matter who they allow on the ballot, rather than a Federal matter.

So I'd expect a State law to bar a convicted felon from the ballot would be Constitutional, but a Federal law I'm less sure about.

US Federal law overrides State law unless it is expressly against the Constitution or beyond its powers which this wouldn't be, certainly if he was convicted in a Federal rather than State court eg in DC where his first trial is.

Even if it was decided to be state only Trump could only be certain of being on the ballot in states where Republicans hold both the governor's mansion and state legislature, which is only a minority of states and not enough to win the EC

"Overrides" does not mean that State Law can be applied.

eg a President cannot issue a pardon for State convictions, which is why Trump is wetting his pants over the Washington and Georgia criminal cases (the Florida Judge is taking all the actions to prove herself a patsy).

The Washington case is a Federal one, is it not?

Georgia must terrify him, even the Governor cannot pardon him if convicted there (even though he's spent years criticising Kemp, he would probably still receive a pardon from him if possible).

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

No law barring Trump from standing would get through the House, and SCOTUS would likely strike it down.

This discussion is just wishful thinking. I would hate Trump to win, but it would not surprise me.

Yes, that's where I'm at.

We want it to be true, but this is America.