The thing I'm finding funny about HS2 is that, for years, I felt like a lone voice in arguing for the scheme on here. Posters talked about reopening the GCR instead (as we saw again earlier...), how home-working was going to make rail travel irrelevant (seemingly wrong, as Covid shows); how we should build a Hyperloop instead (really!); how we should build from the north first (wrong for several reasons); or how it was going to destroy the landscape.
Now, it seems most posters are in favour of it, and don't want to see it scrapped.
Is that because the project is now seen as good; the fact it has started so should be finished; or just because it is a way of bashing Rishi's risible regime?
It shouldn't have been a priority in my view, more motorways would be a much better use of money.
But having half-built it, not finishing it properly is just bloody insane.
More motorways are a shite idea. I use them prolifically, you don't. You can fill the nation with six lane highways and they will still be gridlocked at the pinch points. More motorways is a fool's errand.
HS2 should either go ahead or have been strangled at birth. We need decent public transport and we need people living in close proximity to the amenities they want and need. This is why the denigrating of 15 minute cities as woke is the maddest thing we will hear this week in a week of Liz Truss focused madness.
Most of europe is working to shift as much freight as possible to rail because the energy savings are massive. Instead we are focused on keeping freight on the road because rail doesn't have any spare capacity...
Which is why we need HS2 - it allows the existing WCML to be used for freight...
IIRC the original Beeching Plan envisaged more freight on the main railways, taken to freight depots, and delivered locally by road.
Beeching is maligned more than he deerves. A government asked him to do a task, and he did it. You can argue he did not do it very well; but the vast majority of the closures sadly made sense - and others were closed despite not being in his reports (e.g. Oxford to Cambridge, Matlock to Buxton).
Beeching did not close a single mile of railway. The Conservative and Labour governments in power closed them. He also proposed other measures - as you say, including freight, that the governments only half-heartedly invested in, if at all. Although after the disaster of the 1955 modernisation plan, that might be understandable.
Beeching leadership of BR was one of the finest jobs a civil servant did in the 20th century.
The network needed culling. It was built for 19th century technology, both on rail and in the wider transport ecosystem, and that was no longer appropriate by the second half of the 20th century. Rail does three things well: commute people into city centres, transport people rapidly across medium distances, move bulk freight. And that's what the Beeching cuts were rightly designed to focus on.
Further, without those cuts, BR would have massively expensive overheads for a network on which only a fraction paid its way, either of itself or serving more popular lines. Money that would have to be spent on propping that up couldn't be invested in creating the cleaner, faster, more efficient rail of diesel and electric. Further, running parallel systems of steam *and* diesel / electric would have meant maintaining even more infrastructure to support the different power sources in parallel. Doing away with steam was essential to modernization and efficiency.
But all those efficiencies meant losing a load of workers in a unionized industry. To achieve that programme without paralysing the country through strikes in the process was an extraordinary achievement.
It's easy to get nostalgic about branch lines but the reality is that people had already made their choices and moved on, both as passengers and small-scale freight.
There is however an argument that Beeching was broadly right in overview but usually wrong on the details.
Gerry Fiennes' book "I Tried to Run a Railway" is superb on both the operational challenges and the broader strategic issues of British Railways in that era. He is respectful but critical of Beeching, who he describes as having "a weakness for maps" - in the sense of a desk jockey who didn't really understand the operational network and where the custom actually came from.
The one criticism of Beeching that comes up time and time again, and which Fiennes echoes, is that not enough had been done to cut costs on the lesser-used lines. Plenty of lines went straight from steam operation, with fully staffed stations, to closure - without any attempt to run a basic DMU service between unstaffed stations. Fiennes had great success with the Paytrain concept in East Anglia. It could, and should, have been rolled out nationally.
Yes, and that's probably a fair criticism - and particularly on lines that were kept running. The overheads on many sparsely used country lines would still have been unviably high even with unstaffed stations and DMUs but cutting the intermediate stations - which have often been restored, unmanned, since - on retained lines was an error.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1708778412150534226 "The penny is dropping among people in Westminster that the Government doesn't run the Government," says Conservative MP Danny Kruger.. ..."There's a huge movement going on globally to create essentially a world government that will have power to dictate to national governments what they should do in anticipation of another pandemic," says Danny Kruger, who says there is "no greater threat to our national democracy"..
All together now.
RISHI SUNAK IS A CONSPIRACY THEORIST
Yep. From the introduction to his new "Plan for Drivers":
We will explore options to stop local councils using so-called “15-minute cities”, such as in Oxford, to police people’s lives.
That's straight out of the "WEF/Soros are controlling our lives" conspiracy playbook. There is no plan in Oxford to "police people's lives" other than, I guess, the ever-inept efforts of Thames Valley Police.
Oxfordshire County Council has a transport policy to reduce congestion by preventing through traffic on some roads. Oxford City Council has a planning policy to ensure facilities are within a 20-minute walk of where people live. In Rishiworld this equates to "policing people's lives".
Rishi Sunak is what you get if you cross the Cones Hotline with a belief in the Illuminati.
Allowing local businesses to open local shops = "Policing People's Lives"
WTAF? Seriously, any of the remaining PB Tories want to defend this?
Means competition for existing businesses, less profit for supermarkets by centring in big malls, and so on (because of the reduction in car use).
Not my justification - but it might explain one reason for the anti-15min policy.
To be fair, if government said: HS2 cancelled: we're going to give the £96bn we'd earmarked for the IRP for the North and Midlands to Transport for the North and Midlands Connect to hand down to their respective transport authorities to spend on local priorities, so that Transport for Greater Manchester got (checks sums) £6bn to spend on rail - you know, I'd take that. But that's not going to happen, is it?
It all needs to be part of a coherent, planned network, as some of us have been screeching about for years.
As an example, if you were building a line from the south into Manchester, you might want the station in a certain place. But if you later want to build a west-east line using the same station, then you might want it in a different place, or on a different alignment. This is broad-scope passive provision, and is vital.
It's a shame that HS2 was not planned as part of a wider network of potential enhancements, and could have been planned as such. NPR should always have been seen as a follow-up, even if it got no funding aside from studies.
To be fair, if government said: HS2 cancelled: we're going to give the £96bn we'd earmarked for the IRP for the North and Midlands to Transport for the North and Midlands Connect to hand down to their respective transport authorities to spend on local priorities, so that Transport for Greater Manchester got (checks sums) £6bn to spend on rail - you know, I'd take that. But that's not going to happen, is it?
It all needs to be part of a coherent, planned network, as some of us have been screeching about for years.
As an example, if you were building a line from the south into Manchester, you might want the station in a certain place. But if you later want to build a west-east line using the same station, then you might want it in a different place, or on a different alignment. This is broad-scope passive provision, and is vital.
It's a shame that HS2 was not planned as part of a wider network of potential enhancements, and could have been planned as such. NPR should always have been seen as a follow-up, even if it got no funding aside from studies.
So they want to scrap HS2 phases 2a/b to give the cash to more targeted northern transport schemes. Supposedly wanting to prioritise NPR. So, scrap HS2 2b which included NPR, and instead spend the cash on the Manchester Airport - Piccadilly section of NPR (AKA HS2 phase 2b). Which now costs loads more as it is stand-alone rather than part of HS2.
Or more likely in the real world they will give money to towns to scrap bus gates and remove cycle lanes and add parking spaces in towns to ensure that people don't have the horror of popping to the local shop as a puppet of the woke illuminati pushing the 15-minute city nightmare.
On topic, the point of this measure is clearly to throw some red meat to the Labour Party's ethnic and other minority base - one of the two core groups the Party has - just before the Party Conference. With Starmer's shameless abandonment of all the pledges he made when he stood for Labour Party leader, he faces the obvious problem of motivating them. Promising them something they already have is of course insulting to their intelligence, but at least gives them a fig leaf to continue justify supporting him.
Ian Dunt @IanDunt · 2h This really is the end for any notion of us functioning as a country. The government is basically saying that it is incapable of delivering a modern rail line. You might as well just fucking give up at that point. Someone turn the lights off on the way out. We're done.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1708778412150534226 "The penny is dropping among people in Westminster that the Government doesn't run the Government," says Conservative MP Danny Kruger.. ..."There's a huge movement going on globally to create essentially a world government that will have power to dictate to national governments what they should do in anticipation of another pandemic," says Danny Kruger, who says there is "no greater threat to our national democracy"..
All together now.
RISHI SUNAK IS A CONSPIRACY THEORIST
Yep. From the introduction to his new "Plan for Drivers":
We will explore options to stop local councils using so-called “15-minute cities”, such as in Oxford, to police people’s lives.
That's straight out of the "WEF/Soros are controlling our lives" conspiracy playbook. There is no plan in Oxford to "police people's lives" other than, I guess, the ever-inept efforts of Thames Valley Police.
Oxfordshire County Council has a transport policy to reduce congestion by preventing through traffic on some roads. Oxford City Council has a planning policy to ensure facilities are within a 20-minute walk of where people live. In Rishiworld this equates to "policing people's lives".
Rishi Sunak is what you get if you cross the Cones Hotline with a belief in the Illuminati.
Allowing local businesses to open local shops = "Policing People's Lives"
WTAF? Seriously, any of the remaining PB Tories want to defend this?
Means competition for existing businesses, less profit for supermarkets by centring in big malls, and so on (because of the reduction in car use).
Not my justification - but it might explain one reason for the anti-15min policy.
Remember when the Tories used to be the party of business? Especially the small business? Small business owners feted?
I listen to their mouth-foaming against 15-minute cities and what that means and all I can hear is the music from A Clockwork Orange, with Rishi Sunak wandering along a brutalist town centre herding shoppers to the megamall with a baseball bat and a comedy codpiece.
Closing small business, stifling enterprise, forcing people into a planned urban environment. And they claim to be conservatives acting to protect us against socialism.
Happily, says HY, none of these businesses vote Tory or Plaid Cymru anyway and can thus be ignored.
From the get go HS2 seems to have been a muddle when it comes to explaining its purpose, its benefits and also integrating it into a wider upgrade of infrastructure.
HS2 as a project fell apart in the first 5 minutes on Radio 4 today when whoever was announcing it talked about Speed and not the capacity issues.
It's Faster trains alongside more capacity. Imagine not having 10,000 lorries on the M6 because the long haul freight journey is on the WCML instead.
If that's the reason its an utterly pathetic, absurd reason.
The country is a small one, the whole country is the last few miles on a continental basis. We don't do long haul freight in this country - and this new line won't even connect to the continental network anyway to bring freight from the continent to the North.
If you want capacity for lorry loads and more imagine a new, alternative M6 instead that could carry not tens of thousands of lorries but potentially hundreds of thousands of vehicles a day as well as connecting new towns that aren't connected to the M6.
Oooooff: Former USAF Thunderbird commander Richard McSpadden, famed for Air Safety Institute videos analyzing "what went wrong" in crashes, died this weekend (with Russ Francis, former NE Patriots star and longtime pilot) in small-plane crash in VT. https://twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1708868048600395805
Basically, Sunak's message to the British people is that the British state is incapable of building and managing a form of infrastructure that can be found or is being built in most other European states
There's a sad lack of noise from Labour about guaranteeing that the Manchester leg of HS2 will be built, along with NPR, in full. Only a week or so ago I got the impression they were confirming this. If Labour were clear then it would be contractors could continue to plan for that leg, and simply shift the workplan a bit. If they don't then it'll end and those spades will have to be picked up again fresh, no doubt with further cost overruns.
Or have I missed something from Labour? It feels like Reeves is in the same asset sweating, don't build and they won't come mould as Hunt and Sunak.
There'll be a "sad lack of noise from Labour" right up to the election....
Their manifesto will be an empty fudge wrapper.
True, but less offensive than the current Conservative offering of a carefully packaged turd in a fudge wrapper.
Basically, Sunak's message to the British people is that the British state is incapable of building and managing a form of infrastructure that can be found or is being built in most other European states
During this week's festival of the absurd, do we think anything more absurd than the discouragement of 15 minute cities will make the cut?
At Bright Blue event about the proposed regulation of landlords. Housing minister @redditchrachel says that her children all rent their homes and vote conservative - not all private renters “smoke weed” or are “bad people in gangs” she says. Conservatives rent their homes too….
What the Conservatives need to ask themselves is why so many other countries in Europe and the wider world see high-speed rail thoughout their countries as being necessary. It's not a fad: or if it is, then it's a long-lasting one. France opened its first one forty years ago; Japan sixty years.
Why do they think Britain is so different that we don't require such a network? What is our exceptionalism?
Possibly because we're a small, compact country and people don't travel vast distances? 🤔
In the continent people can travel across the continent from one country to another via high speed trains. Had HS2 connected to the continent then that would have been viable with HS2 too, get on board at Manchester and off in Amsterdam.
But no, that's not happening anyway. Its just absurd either way.
From the coverage of this conference, it feels like the election that they're gearing up for is the next Tory leadership one than the general election.
What the Conservatives need to ask themselves is why so many other countries in Europe and the wider world see high-speed rail thoughout their countries as being necessary. It's not a fad: or if it is, then it's a long-lasting one. France opened its first one forty years ago; Japan sixty years.
Why do they think Britain is so different that we don't require such a network? What is our exceptionalism?
Possibly because we're a small, compact country and people don't travel vast distances? 🤔
In the continent people can travel across the continent from one country to another via high speed trains. Had HS2 connected to the continent then that would have been viable with HS2 too, get on board at Manchester and off in Amsterdam.
But no, that's not happening anyway. Its just absurd either way.
Capacity is badly needed on the London/B'ham/Manchester route. Anyone who's had to stand up for the entire journey many times knows that.
What the Conservatives need to ask themselves is why so many other countries in Europe and the wider world see high-speed rail thoughout their countries as being necessary. It's not a fad: or if it is, then it's a long-lasting one. France opened its first one forty years ago; Japan sixty years.
Why do they think Britain is so different that we don't require such a network? What is our exceptionalism?
Possibly because we're a small, compact country and people don't travel vast distances? 🤔
In the continent people can travel across the continent from one country to another via high speed trains. Had HS2 connected to the continent then that would have been viable with HS2 too, get on board at Manchester and off in Amsterdam.
But no, that's not happening anyway. Its just absurd either way.
"small compact country"
Aberdeen and Penzance are part of the UK too, you know: and even Edinburgh to Bristol is a loooong trip by modern European rail standards.
From the coverage of this conference, it feels like the election that they're gearing up for is the next Tory leadership one than the general election.
One thing I am sure we agree on is the conservative party conference is an utter shambles
Either announce HS2 is cancelled or is going ahead
An utter gift to labour
"I will not comment on speculation that I have created because I want to time the announcement of what I have been speculating about to be after a long period of further speculation, denials, and counter denials so that the decision, which has not been made, or maybe it has, we are not sure, looks as bad as possible."
Ian Dunt @IanDunt · 2h This really is the end for any notion of us functioning as a country. The government is basically saying that it is incapable of delivering a modern rail line. You might as well just fucking give up at that point. Someone turn the lights off on the way out. We're done.
What will the policy be when we get some rain and frost over the winter and realise we can't even fix the potholes either?
What the Conservatives need to ask themselves is why so many other countries in Europe and the wider world see high-speed rail thoughout their countries as being necessary. It's not a fad: or if it is, then it's a long-lasting one. France opened its first one forty years ago; Japan sixty years.
Why do they think Britain is so different that we don't require such a network? What is our exceptionalism?
Possibly because we're a small, compact country and people don't travel vast distances? 🤔
In the continent people can travel across the continent from one country to another via high speed trains. Had HS2 connected to the continent then that would have been viable with HS2 too, get on board at Manchester and off in Amsterdam.
But no, that's not happening anyway. Its just absurd either way.
Capacity is badly needed on the London/B'ham/Manchester route. Anyone who's had to stand up for the entire journey many times knows that.
Then just say that.
Not that we need high speed because Europe travels across the continent at high speed. Or to get vehicles off the road, when just building more roads would do that better.
Just say we need capacity for capacities sake in its own right. Don't need extra reasons that don't hold up, because those extra reasons just trivialise it if they're clearly bullshit.
From the get go, selling the vision of HS2 to the public seems to have been a muddle when it comes to explaining its purpose, its benefits and also integrating it into a wider upgrade of infrastructure.
What they should have done is sold it primarily as increasing capacity, but since it involved building a new line it might as well also have improved speed
What the Conservatives need to ask themselves is why so many other countries in Europe and the wider world see high-speed rail thoughout their countries as being necessary. It's not a fad: or if it is, then it's a long-lasting one. France opened its first one forty years ago; Japan sixty years.
Why do they think Britain is so different that we don't require such a network? What is our exceptionalism?
Possibly because we're a small, compact country and people don't travel vast distances? 🤔
In the continent people can travel across the continent from one country to another via high speed trains. Had HS2 connected to the continent then that would have been viable with HS2 too, get on board at Manchester and off in Amsterdam.
But no, that's not happening anyway. Its just absurd either way.
"small compact country"
Aberdeen and Penzance are part of the UK too, you know: and even Edinburgh to Bristol is a loooong trip by modern European rail standards.
There's a sad lack of noise from Labour about guaranteeing that the Manchester leg of HS2 will be built, along with NPR, in full. Only a week or so ago I got the impression they were confirming this. If Labour were clear then it would be contractors could continue to plan for that leg, and simply shift the workplan a bit. If they don't then it'll end and those spades will have to be picked up again fresh, no doubt with further cost overruns.
Or have I missed something from Labour? It feels like Reeves is in the same asset sweating, don't build and they won't come mould as Hunt and Sunak.
There'll be a "sad lack of noise from Labour" right up to the election....
Their manifesto will be an empty fudge wrapper.
True, but less offensive than the current Conservative offering of a carefully packaged turd in a fudge wrapper.
Not looking like a high turnout election....
I think the Tories will still get walloped. Just watched Liz Truss- she truly is the gift that keeps on giving for the opposition parties.
This conference is the unspeakable arguing for the unthinkable using methods that are impossible.
Speaking at a fringe event in Manchester, Street said he had not been informed of the government’s decision. But he added that having consistency for investors was “an absolutely fundamental point”, adding: “It’s what drives investment.”
Henri Murison, the chief executive of the Northern Powerhouse Partnership, said: “It is madness to leave what was meant to be the UK’s flagship infrastructure project like this. Unless we can protect the hybrid bill, which is currently going through parliament and which authorises the tunnel between Manchester and Manchester airport, this means the end for Northern Powerhouse Rail and levelling up as a whole is finished.”
Darren Caplan, the chief executive of the Railway Industry Association, said: “This constant salami-slicing of the scheme betrays HS2’s original purpose to improve the UK’s connectivity and economy, while enabling added capacity to the classic network and helping the government deliver on its net zero targets. A decision to cancel would also send a terrible message about the UK’s ability to deliver major infrastructure projects to international investors.”
Downing Street said a final decision on HS2 had not yet been made but Sunak was expected to hold an emergency cabinet meeting on Tuesday in Manchester so ministers could rubber-stamp it...
This conference seems worse than the last effort by Truss. How the hell have they got themselves into a comms mess around HS2. Whilst in Manchester. Whilst talking about 15 minute cities. And 20mph speed limits.
What the Conservatives need to ask themselves is why so many other countries in Europe and the wider world see high-speed rail thoughout their countries as being necessary. It's not a fad: or if it is, then it's a long-lasting one. France opened its first one forty years ago; Japan sixty years.
Why do they think Britain is so different that we don't require such a network? What is our exceptionalism?
Possibly because we're a small, compact country and people don't travel vast distances? 🤔
London to Edinburgh is about the same distance as Tokyo to Osaka, which works very well as a high speed train route...
A rational decision on HS2 would disregard the money/resources spent so far. Bygones are bygones. If it is to be cancelled it implies that the prospective additional expenditure for Birmingham to Manchester is not worth the prospective additional benefits. So could they please spell out what the extra costs and benefits are so that we can understand this seemingly irrational decision?
HS2 parliamentary process is important in this context.
HS2 phase 1 and phase 2A have completed their parliamentary processes so the relevant powers to build the line from Euston to Crewe have been obtained through the relevant Acts.
Phase 2B (Crewe-Manchester) is currently going through the select committee petitioning stage as it is hybrid bill.
It is quite feasible for the government to stop the parliamentary stages of Phase 2B so that the Bill would automatically drop at the end of the current session in around 4 weeks time. If the Bill is not carried over, then a new Bill would need to be re-introduced and the parliamentary process started again.
If Phase 2B is cancelled it is therefore more difficult proceedually for Labour to pick it up again, whereas restarting Euston and building up to Crewe is more straightforward (Euston is difficult design and enginering wise).
There's a sad lack of noise from Labour about guaranteeing that the Manchester leg of HS2 will be built, along with NPR, in full. Only a week or so ago I got the impression they were confirming this. If Labour were clear then it would be contractors could continue to plan for that leg, and simply shift the workplan a bit. If they don't then it'll end and those spades will have to be picked up again fresh, no doubt with further cost overruns.
Or have I missed something from Labour? It feels like Reeves is in the same asset sweating, don't build and they won't come mould as Hunt and Sunak.
There'll be a "sad lack of noise from Labour" right up to the election....
Their manifesto will be an empty fudge wrapper.
True, but less offensive than the current Conservative offering of a carefully packaged turd in a fudge wrapper.
Not looking like a high turnout election....
Probably not, which favours your bunch. I still have this recurring nightmare of 1992 redux.
Starmer may (in the unlikely event he wins) be a disappointment, or he could surprise on the upside. Remember the bar is low.
If the current iteration of the Conservative Party win as I suspect, we are in a one party state. They will assume that too. A cocktail of corrupt and clueless will taste extremely sour.
What the Conservatives need to ask themselves is why so many other countries in Europe and the wider world see high-speed rail thoughout their countries as being necessary. It's not a fad: or if it is, then it's a long-lasting one. France opened its first one forty years ago; Japan sixty years.
Why do they think Britain is so different that we don't require such a network? What is our exceptionalism?
Possibly because we're a small, compact country and people don't travel vast distances? 🤔
In the continent people can travel across the continent from one country to another via high speed trains. Had HS2 connected to the continent then that would have been viable with HS2 too, get on board at Manchester and off in Amsterdam.
But no, that's not happening anyway. Its just absurd either way.
"small compact country"
Aberdeen and Penzance are part of the UK too, you know: and even Edinburgh to Bristol is a loooong trip by modern European rail standards.
And which of them are on the HS2 route?
Exactly, they'd be connected by HS - certainly Edinburgh to Bristol/Exeter - in any sane modern state.
You're plain wrong about the UK being small and compact.
What the Conservatives need to ask themselves is why so many other countries in Europe and the wider world see high-speed rail thoughout their countries as being necessary. It's not a fad: or if it is, then it's a long-lasting one. France opened its first one forty years ago; Japan sixty years.
Why do they think Britain is so different that we don't require such a network? What is our exceptionalism?
Possibly because we're a small, compact country and people don't travel vast distances? 🤔
In the continent people can travel across the continent from one country to another via high speed trains. Had HS2 connected to the continent then that would have been viable with HS2 too, get on board at Manchester and off in Amsterdam.
But no, that's not happening anyway. Its just absurd either way.
"small compact country"
Aberdeen and Penzance are part of the UK too, you know: and even Edinburgh to Bristol is a loooong trip by modern European rail standards.
And which of them are on the HS2 route?
Exactly, they'd be connected by HS - certainly Edinburgh to Bristol/Exeter - in any sane modern state.
You're plain wrong about the UK being small and compact.
I never said the UK is small and compact, I said this country is. England is the country I'm referring to, not Scotland or the UK.
Had this network been a trans-UK one it would certainly be travelling much, much further distances. And I agree its absurd it can't be done.
Dear PB Please can you help me. I am not sure that I understand what woke and anti-woke mean. I think antisemitism, prejudice against women and racism etc are bad things. Does this mean that I am woke? If so, what does anti-woke mean? Does anti-woke mean that someone is racist or misogynist? I am not trying to cause an argument, I want to understand. I had an argument with a friend last week. He mentioned being anti-woke. I assumed that he was admitting to being a racist or something along those lines. I was quite rude to him. I more or less accused him of being a RWNJ (Right Wing Nut Job). I may have overreacted. What does anti-woke mean?
The simplest definition of woke is the belief that any differential outcome between groups is necessarily the result of some kind of discrimination, even if the mechanism can't easily be articulated. This is often used to justify overt positive discrimination in the other direction.
Someone might describe themselves as anti-woke if they disagree with this analysis or oppose positive discrimination on principle.
A rational decision on HS2 would disregard the money/resources spent so far. Bygones are bygones. If it is to be cancelled it implies that the prospective additional expenditure for Birmingham to Manchester is not worth the prospective additional benefits. So could they please spell out what the extra costs and benefits are so that we can understand this seemingly irrational decision?
A rational decision (no idea what it should be) takes into account the Sunk Costs Fallacy, which is hard to accept.
I like this way of presenting polls. Much easier to read into long term trends than either the individual polling results or, arguably, the line graphs.
Incredible medium term stability, after averaging out short term volatility. The only notable change is a 1-2% swing from Lab to LD in April, which seems to have stuck. At a guess I would say that campaigning ahead of the May locals focused voters' minds on tactical options.
A rational decision on HS2 would disregard the money/resources spent so far. Bygones are bygones. If it is to be cancelled it implies that the prospective additional expenditure for Birmingham to Manchester is not worth the prospective additional benefits. So could they please spell out what the extra costs and benefits are so that we can understand this seemingly irrational decision?
A rational decision (no idea what it should be) takes into account the Sunk Costs Fallacy, which is hard to accept.
Dear PB Please can you help me. I am not sure that I understand what woke and anti-woke mean. I think antisemitism, prejudice against women and racism etc are bad things. Does this mean that I am woke? If so, what does anti-woke mean? Does anti-woke mean that someone is racist or misogynist? I am not trying to cause an argument, I want to understand. I had an argument with a friend last week. He mentioned being anti-woke. I assumed that he was admitting to being a racist or something along those lines. I was quite rude to him. I more or less accused him of being a RWNJ (Right Wing Nut Job). I may have overreacted. What does anti-woke mean?
The simplest definition of woke is the belief that any differential outcome between groups is necessarily the result of some kind of discrimination, even if the mechanism can't easily be articulated. This is often used to justify overt positive discrimination in the other direction.
Someone might describe themselves as anti-woke if they disagree with this analysis or oppose positive discrimination on principle.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1708778412150534226 "The penny is dropping among people in Westminster that the Government doesn't run the Government," says Conservative MP Danny Kruger.. ..."There's a huge movement going on globally to create essentially a world government that will have power to dictate to national governments what they should do in anticipation of another pandemic," says Danny Kruger, who says there is "no greater threat to our national democracy"..
All together now.
RISHI SUNAK IS A CONSPIRACY THEORIST
Yep. From the introduction to his new "Plan for Drivers":
We will explore options to stop local councils using so-called “15-minute cities”, such as in Oxford, to police people’s lives.
That's straight out of the "WEF/Soros are controlling our lives" conspiracy playbook. There is no plan in Oxford to "police people's lives" other than, I guess, the ever-inept efforts of Thames Valley Police.
Oxfordshire County Council has a transport policy to reduce congestion by preventing through traffic on some roads. Oxford City Council has a planning policy to ensure facilities are within a 20-minute walk of where people live. In Rishiworld this equates to "policing people's lives".
Rishi Sunak is what you get if you cross the Cones Hotline with a belief in the Illuminati.
Allowing local businesses to open local shops = "Policing People's Lives"
WTAF? Seriously, any of the remaining PB Tories want to defend this?
Means competition for existing businesses, less profit for supermarkets by centring in big malls, and so on (because of the reduction in car use).
Not my justification - but it might explain one reason for the anti-15min policy.
You're overthinking it. Sunak is a conspiracy theorist. 15 minute cities is a conspiracy theory. That's it.
A rational decision on HS2 would disregard the money/resources spent so far. Bygones are bygones. If it is to be cancelled it implies that the prospective additional expenditure for Birmingham to Manchester is not worth the prospective additional benefits. So could they please spell out what the extra costs and benefits are so that we can understand this seemingly irrational decision?
A rational decision (no idea what it should be) takes into account the Sunk Costs Fallacy, which is hard to accept.
Well yes, that's what I said. But it's helpful, I think, to articulate it explicitly.
As per @Peston I’m also told the decision has been made to scrap the Manchester leg of HS2 with the money going on other transport projects
So Crossrail 2.
A key part of the levelling up agenda.
It's a very sensible investment. It's clear though that such projects entail us (the taxpayers) getting ripped off in quite shocking ways. What's odd though is that the big construction companies are all going bust. Where is the money going?
I think we have multiple issues
1) companies get told the budget for public projects so gold plate everything because they want more of the money 2) this Government disliked risk so expected all the costs to be covered upfront. Ask me to take a risk on a project and I'll add 50% to the bill to cover that risk 3) for private work construction material costs have rendered even projects that were sensible planned as problematic because they budget for inflation at say 10% rather than 40%..
Tens of billions of pounds are somehow vanishing, and every major civil engineering company is in trouble. It makes no sense.
I think it's all gone on pointless paperwork. 2 year delay in a project - rechecks required. Reduce platforms at Euston £200m redesign costs...
The best idea is to create a plan, get everyone to agree to it and then just leave to build it...
Agreed entirely, but there are tens of billions missing still.
Haven't we been over this a few times?
Land is more expensive in England than in France, so it costs more to buy it.
Political choice to increase the amount of tunneling to bypass Home Counties opposition.
Excessively high engineering specification that, for example, put all the risk for minor land settling/slippage onto the contractor.
Continual delays to project increase the costs due to inflation, project overheads, penalty clauses in contracts, etc.
And meddling to modify the agreed design as previously discussed.
HS2 parliamentary process is important in this context.
HS2 phase 1 and phase 2A have completed their parliamentary processes so the relevant powers to build the line from Euston to Crewe have been obtained through the relevant Acts.
Phase 2B (Crewe-Manchester) is currently going through the select committee petitioning stage as it is hybrid bill.
It is quite feasible for the government to stop the parliamentary stages of Phase 2B so that the Bill would automatically drop at the end of the current session in around 4 weeks time. If the Bill is not carried over, then a new Bill would need to be re-introduced and the parliamentary process started again.
If Phase 2B is cancelled it is therefore more difficult proceedually for Labour to pick it up again, whereas restarting Euston and building up to Crewe is more straightforward (Euston is difficult design and enginering wise).
You clearly haven't seen this Government and Bozo's policy of having Parliament do sod all for months and then pushing a bill through all it's stages in a week.,
As such I easily see a Labour Government getting the phase 2b bill back into a select committee in a day or so....
What the Conservatives need to ask themselves is why so many other countries in Europe and the wider world see high-speed rail thoughout their countries as being necessary. It's not a fad: or if it is, then it's a long-lasting one. France opened its first one forty years ago; Japan sixty years.
Why do they think Britain is so different that we don't require such a network? What is our exceptionalism?
Comments
Not my justification - but it might explain one reason for the anti-15min policy.
As an example, if you were building a line from the south into Manchester, you might want the station in a certain place. But if you later want to build a west-east line using the same station, then you might want it in a different place, or on a different alignment. This is broad-scope passive provision, and is vital.
It's a shame that HS2 was not planned as part of a wider network of potential enhancements, and could have been planned as such. NPR should always have been seen as a follow-up, even if it got no funding aside from studies.
Or more likely in the real world they will give money to towns to scrap bus gates and remove cycle lanes and add parking spaces in towns to ensure that people don't have the horror of popping to the local shop as a puppet of the woke illuminati pushing the 15-minute city nightmare.
Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
·
2h
This really is the end for any notion of us functioning as a country. The government is basically saying that it is incapable of delivering a modern rail line. You might as well just fucking give up at that point. Someone turn the lights off on the way out. We're done.
Huge question now for Starmer/Reeves.
I listen to their mouth-foaming against 15-minute cities and what that means and all I can hear is the music from A Clockwork Orange, with Rishi Sunak wandering along a brutalist town centre herding shoppers to the megamall with a baseball bat and a comedy codpiece.
Closing small business, stifling enterprise, forcing people into a planned urban environment. And they claim to be conservatives acting to protect us against socialism.
Happily, says HY, none of these businesses vote Tory or Plaid Cymru anyway and can thus be ignored.
The country is a small one, the whole country is the last few miles on a continental basis. We don't do long haul freight in this country - and this new line won't even connect to the continental network anyway to bring freight from the continent to the North.
If you want capacity for lorry loads and more imagine a new, alternative M6 instead that could carry not tens of thousands of lorries but potentially hundreds of thousands of vehicles a day as well as connecting new towns that aren't connected to the M6.
https://twitter.com/JamesFallows/status/1708868048600395805
https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1708816583387238460
Basically, Sunak's message to the British people is that the British state is incapable of building and managing a form of infrastructure that can be found or is being built in most other European states
Either announce HS2 is cancelled or is going ahead
An utter gift to labour
At Bright Blue event about the proposed regulation of landlords. Housing minister @redditchrachel says that her children all rent their homes and vote conservative - not all private renters “smoke weed” or are “bad people in gangs” she says. Conservatives rent their homes too….
Is he planning a return to Tory party in time to build a Nationalist Populist party out of the ash's of Sunak's looming defeat?
In the continent people can travel across the continent from one country to another via high speed trains. Had HS2 connected to the continent then that would have been viable with HS2 too, get on board at Manchester and off in Amsterdam.
But no, that's not happening anyway. Its just absurd either way.
From the coverage of this conference, it feels like the election that they're gearing up for is the next Tory leadership one than the general election.
Aberdeen and Penzance are part of the UK too, you know: and even Edinburgh to Bristol is a loooong trip by modern European rail standards.
Not that we need high speed because Europe travels across the continent at high speed.
Or to get vehicles off the road, when just building more roads would do that better.
Just say we need capacity for capacities sake in its own right. Don't need extra reasons that don't hold up, because those extra reasons just trivialise it if they're clearly bullshit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66983380
Cambridge lawyer makes good.
This conference is the unspeakable arguing for the unthinkable using methods that are impossible.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/02/hs2-rishi-sunak-scrapping-manchester-leg
...Andy Street, the Tory mayor of the West Midlands, said: “If you tell the international investment community you are going to do something, you bloody well have to stick to your word.”
Speaking at a fringe event in Manchester, Street said he had not been informed of the government’s decision. But he added that having consistency for investors was “an absolutely fundamental point”, adding: “It’s what drives investment.”
Henri Murison, the chief executive of the Northern Powerhouse Partnership, said: “It is madness to leave what was meant to be the UK’s flagship infrastructure project like this. Unless we can protect the hybrid bill, which is currently going through parliament and which authorises the tunnel between Manchester and Manchester airport, this means the end for Northern Powerhouse Rail and levelling up as a whole is finished.”
Darren Caplan, the chief executive of the Railway Industry Association, said: “This constant salami-slicing of the scheme betrays HS2’s original purpose to improve the UK’s connectivity and economy, while enabling added capacity to the classic network and helping the government deliver on its net zero targets. A decision to cancel would also send a terrible message about the UK’s ability to deliver major infrastructure projects to international investors.”
Downing Street said a final decision on HS2 had not yet been made but Sunak was expected to hold an emergency cabinet meeting on Tuesday in Manchester so ministers could rubber-stamp it...
I would offer the following definition of 'woke' - someone who rejects legal and cultural norms in the pursuit of rapid social justice.
Ugh. Just put the party out of its misery.
Exclusive: Bosses who signed letter eight years ago now highly critical of PM’s plans to roll back net zero policies
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/02/business-chiefs-who-criticised-labour-in-2015-turn-on-rishi-sunak-green-u-turn-net-zero-policies
HS2 phase 1 and phase 2A have completed their parliamentary processes so the relevant powers to build the line from Euston to Crewe have been obtained through the relevant Acts.
Phase 2B (Crewe-Manchester) is currently going through the select committee petitioning stage as it is hybrid bill.
It is quite feasible for the government to stop the parliamentary stages of Phase 2B so that the Bill would automatically drop at the end of the current session in around 4 weeks time. If the Bill is not carried over, then a new Bill would need to be re-introduced and the parliamentary process started again.
If Phase 2B is cancelled it is therefore more difficult proceedually for Labour to pick it up again, whereas restarting Euston and building up to Crewe is more straightforward (Euston is difficult design and enginering wise).
Starmer may (in the unlikely event he wins) be a disappointment, or he could surprise on the upside. Remember the bar is low.
If the current iteration of the Conservative Party win as I suspect, we are in a one party state. They will assume that too. A cocktail of corrupt and clueless will taste extremely sour.
Why your new Apple iPhone 15 is overheating
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-66982762
You're plain wrong about the UK being small and compact.
Had this network been a trans-UK one it would certainly be travelling much, much further distances. And I agree its absurd it can't be done.
Someone might describe themselves as anti-woke if they disagree with this analysis or oppose positive discrimination on principle.
https://x.com/benatipsos/status/1708864817782567396?s=20
Incredible medium term stability, after averaging out short term volatility. The only notable change is a 1-2% swing from Lab to LD in April, which seems to have stuck. At a guess I would say that campaigning ahead of the May locals focused voters' minds on tactical options.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-66889779
Published at 5pm. Panorama?
ETA just notice the byline: By Rianna Croxford, investigations correspondent
BBC News and BBC Panorama
Thanks for your explanation.
Utterly pathetic that the UK can’t build one decent high speed link .
Thanks for this. Not sure I understand. Can you expand this. Perhaps give an example.
What I am terrified about is Trump's flagrant disregard for democratic and constitutional norms, and what that means for the US, and for US democracy.
Land is more expensive in England than in France, so it costs more to buy it.
Political choice to increase the amount of tunneling to bypass Home Counties opposition.
Excessively high engineering specification that, for example, put all the risk for minor land settling/slippage onto the contractor.
Continual delays to project increase the costs due to inflation, project overheads, penalty clauses in contracts, etc.
And meddling to modify the agreed design as previously discussed.
New Thread
But you guys all knew that, right?As such I easily see a Labour Government getting the phase 2b bill back into a select committee in a day or so....