There is clearly a market for a pragmatic centre-right party. The problem is that the people who could form it are scattered across the Tory, LibDem and Labour parties, or like Stewart walking in the political desert. How can that strand of thought unite?
Wonder if Rory will re-enter politics. He's obviously still fascinated by it. Can't imagine Westminster. Holyrood? He's a Scot with family home in Perthshire. Passionate Unionist. And would find Tory MSPs a far more congenial crowd - almost all antiBrexit. And would give him a platform if he became leader. Stranger things...
What a match! Amazing ending, officiating was definitely a bit dodgy for the offside, was a goal for sure, the reds were deserved though.
Were they bollocks. The first was not a red to any neutral eye. The second included one non-yellow card, but was just about forgivable because that happens and the second yellow was fair.
And I don’t like Liverpool and their fans.
The first was absolutely a red, he had his foot off the ground and studs up. That's violent conduct and a straight red every single time.
Liverpool will be title contenders this season if they can sort out the discipline. Even Salah at the end getting a pointless booking for arguing just shows that Klopp is losing control of them, or worse, sending them out to be thugs on the pitch.
Spurs fan, I assume? You know that first one isn’t a red. I will let you off if you were at the ground and haven’t see it back yet. Otherwise you need to grow up and think about the sport.
There is clearly a market for a pragmatic centre-right party. The problem is that the people who could form it are scattered across the Tory, LibDem and Labour parties, or like Stewart walking in the political desert. How can that strand of thought unite?
If we could answer that our country would have a much brighter future
I can see we are now at the point in the cycle where Tory obituaries get written. Spoiler: they will be back.
We wrote off Labour in ‘92. We wrote off the Tories in ‘01 (lots of take-offs of the “strange death of Liberal England”). We wrote off the Tories ever actually winning another majority in ‘10. We wrote off Labour in ‘15 and again in ‘19.
It never happens. The death of the Liberals was a unique moment in time, in and around the growth of Labour.
What a match! Amazing ending, officiating was definitely a bit dodgy for the offside, was a goal for sure, the reds were deserved though.
Were they bollocks. The first was not a red to any neutral eye. The second included one non-yellow card, but was just about forgivable because that happens and the second yellow was fair.
And I don’t like Liverpool and their fans.
Plus this...
Oh dear. PGMOL statement: "PGMOL acknowledge a significant human error occurred during the first half of Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool. The goal by Luiz Diaz was disallowed for offside by the on-field team of match officials. This was a clear and obvious factual error...1/2 https://x.com/philmcnulty/status/1708199597888139556?t=RCGNTdlsXo7rMJd1-wHpnA&s=08
Everyone could see it was inside except VAR. They didn't even bother drawing lines. How is it possible to make that kind of mistake?
Utterly inexcusable. Gary Neville was right to say that for VAR, offside decisions should always be correct. Anything else is inexcusable.
Every single other sport seems to make tech-assisted decision making work. Football resists it for years, then when it does introduce it, acts like it invented it, then makes an utter bollocks of it. It's surely the worst-executed sport in the world.
Yup. Ball tracking/ultra edge in cricket and Hawkeye in tennis are simply infallible. Very occasionally it breaks, they say so, and we have a few minutes where everyone knows it is for the umpire. That’s fine. I don’t follow rugby enough to write about it.
Wonder if Rory will re-enter politics. He's obviously still fascinated by it. Can't imagine Westminster. Holyrood? He's a Scot with family home in Perthshire. Passionate Unionist. And would find Tory MSPs a far more congenial crowd - almost all antiBrexit. And would give him a platform if he became leader. Stranger things...
Shame he gave up on the London mayoralty. I’d definitely vote for him, provided he dodged the Tory anti-ULEZ bollocks.
I can see we are now at the point in the cycle where Tory obituaries get written. Spoiler: they will be back.
We wrote off Labour in ‘92. We wrote off the Tories in ‘01 (lots of take-offs of the “strange death of Liberal England”). We wrote off the Tories ever actually winning another majority in ‘10. We wrote off Labour in ‘15 and again in ‘19.
It never happens. The death of the Liberals was a unique moment in time, in and around the growth of Labour.
It never happens... except that time when it did.
In totally one off and unusual circumstances linked to universal suffrage and the rise of organised Labour.
So it’s Labour’s lowest score of the year, but not hugely out of the ordinary for the Tories.
There’s a trend over the year for Labour to lose a bit of VI - about 2% I’d say on average. Whereas Tory has oscillated around a fairly stable level.
The marginal gainers have been the Lib Dems. Started the year averaging 8-9, now generally 10-11. They’ve gone:
9,9,7,9,8,8,9,10,10,11,9,11,8,9,11,10,11,9,11, 12
Tories going nowhere but that's enough for Labour to be worried if I were Starmer.
Another year of that and he could be into NOM territory.
I find the Reform numbers fascinating. Do that many people even know who they are? But then I was amazed in the local elections in Derby in 2022 when I visited, to see them everywhere and doing well. At first I assumed it was an unfortunately named “Reform Derby” set of indies. But no. Maybe they are doing a LibDem, very local strategy. If so, where could they get a seat?
What a match! Amazing ending, officiating was definitely a bit dodgy for the offside, was a goal for sure, the reds were deserved though.
Were they bollocks. The first was not a red to any neutral eye. The second included one non-yellow card, but was just about forgivable because that happens and the second yellow was fair.
And I don’t like Liverpool and their fans.
The first was absolutely a red, he had his foot off the ground and studs up. That's violent conduct and a straight red every single time.
Liverpool will be title contenders this season if they can sort out the discipline. Even Salah at the end getting a pointless booking for arguing just shows that Klopp is losing control of them, or worse, sending them out to be thugs on the pitch.
Spurs fan, I assume? You know that first one isn’t a red. I will let you off if you were at the ground and haven’t see it back yet. Otherwise you need to grow up and think about the sport.
I was at the ground, but have seen replays, it's a red. There was a red for exactly the same tackle last week as well.
What a match! Amazing ending, officiating was definitely a bit dodgy for the offside, was a goal for sure, the reds were deserved though.
Were they bollocks. The first was not a red to any neutral eye. The second included one non-yellow card, but was just about forgivable because that happens and the second yellow was fair.
And I don’t like Liverpool and their fans.
Plus this...
Oh dear. PGMOL statement: "PGMOL acknowledge a significant human error occurred during the first half of Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool. The goal by Luiz Diaz was disallowed for offside by the on-field team of match officials. This was a clear and obvious factual error...1/2 https://x.com/philmcnulty/status/1708199597888139556?t=RCGNTdlsXo7rMJd1-wHpnA&s=08
Everyone could see it was inside except VAR. They didn't even bother drawing lines. How is it possible to make that kind of mistake?
The lines and offside decisions should be automated like goal line technology. We have good enough AI and camera systems to do it, but in the end these decision happen all the time to every team, every season.
A couple of interesting pieces of slightly substandard infra from NL and UK from Ashley Neal's "nice driving" video this morning.
1 - NL: A street where it is unclear whether the "cycle lanes" are actually cycle lanes or are "suggestion lanes", which is a not very good translation of a feature designed to make a road or street look visually narrower in order to set the perception of a lower appropriate speed. The usual NL clarity around what is what is fudged.
That's something we hardly ever do in this country. An example for UK use could be for a row of trees is put between the carriageway and the footway, rather than putting the footway right up against the high speed road surface - which makes parents tell kids not to use it. Often new or improved roads have space.
2 - UK - a road junction with a stepped up cycle track, which turns into a cycle lane with no transition indicated to the motor vehicles, then turns into an advanced stop line with a bike box, and the cycles I think have their own set of mini traffic lights without modal separation. It all seems thrown together.
Two errors here: cyclist is on a mobile - Cycling w/o due care through that lot imo; cammer drives over the stop line into the bike box when they could stop.
So it’s Labour’s lowest score of the year, but not hugely out of the ordinary for the Tories.
There’s a trend over the year for Labour to lose a bit of VI - about 2% I’d say on average. Whereas Tory has oscillated around a fairly stable level.
The marginal gainers have been the Lib Dems. Started the year averaging 8-9, now generally 10-11. They’ve gone:
9,9,7,9,8,8,9,10,10,11,9,11,8,9,11,10,11,9,11, 12
Tories going nowhere but that's enough for Labour to be worried if I were Starmer.
Another year of that and he could be into NOM territory.
I find the Reform numbers fascinating. Do that many people even know who they are? But then I was amazed in the local elections in Derby in 2022 when I visited, to see them everywhere and doing well. At first I assumed it was an unfortunately named “Reform Derby” set of indies. But no. Maybe they are doing a LibDem, very local strategy. If so, where could they get a seat?
I think if the Tories were doing Tory things, i.e. cutting tax now rather than having raised it to record highs, then they'd be up at around 34-35%.
They've lost a slice of their base because they're not playing to it.
There is clearly a market for a pragmatic centre-right party. The problem is that the people who could form it are scattered across the Tory, LibDem and Labour parties, or like Stewart walking in the political desert. How can that strand of thought unite?
If we could answer that our country would have a much brighter future
Ironically the problem has arisen from the parties adopting one member, one vote systems for leadership elections.
It's become a viscous circle, especially in the Conservative Party. Members vote for a more extreme leader > policy lurches to the right > centrists leave the party in frustration > the remaining membership is even more extreme.
So it’s Labour’s lowest score of the year, but not hugely out of the ordinary for the Tories.
There’s a trend over the year for Labour to lose a bit of VI - about 2% I’d say on average. Whereas Tory has oscillated around a fairly stable level.
The marginal gainers have been the Lib Dems. Started the year averaging 8-9, now generally 10-11. They’ve gone:
9,9,7,9,8,8,9,10,10,11,9,11,8,9,11,10,11,9,11, 12
Tories going nowhere but that's enough for Labour to be worried if I were Starmer.
Another year of that and he could be into NOM territory.
LAB still massive favourites but still time for LAB to get nervous!
Remember 1986 when the LAB lead suddenly vanished around party conference season/late 1986
Tories had a very successful conference that year - "The Next Steps Forward" was the slogan or something like that. Gave them momentum. No doubt Rishi hopes for something similar.
So it’s Labour’s lowest score of the year, but not hugely out of the ordinary for the Tories.
There’s a trend over the year for Labour to lose a bit of VI - about 2% I’d say on average. Whereas Tory has oscillated around a fairly stable level.
The marginal gainers have been the Lib Dems. Started the year averaging 8-9, now generally 10-11. They’ve gone:
9,9,7,9,8,8,9,10,10,11,9,11,8,9,11,10,11,9,11, 12
Tories going nowhere but that's enough for Labour to be worried if I were Starmer.
Another year of that and he could be into NOM territory.
LAB still massive favourites but still time for LAB to get nervous!
Remember 1986 when the LAB lead suddenly vanished around party conference season/late 1986
Tories had a very successful conference that year - "The Next Steps Forward" was the slogan or something like that. Gave them momentum. No doubt Rishi hopes for something similar.
So it’s Labour’s lowest score of the year, but not hugely out of the ordinary for the Tories.
There’s a trend over the year for Labour to lose a bit of VI - about 2% I’d say on average. Whereas Tory has oscillated around a fairly stable level.
The marginal gainers have been the Lib Dems. Started the year averaging 8-9, now generally 10-11. They’ve gone:
9,9,7,9,8,8,9,10,10,11,9,11,8,9,11,10,11,9,11, 12
Tories going nowhere but that's enough for Labour to be worried if I were Starmer.
Another year of that and he could be into NOM territory.
I find the Reform numbers fascinating. Do that many people even know who they are? But then I was amazed in the local elections in Derby in 2022 when I visited, to see them everywhere and doing well. At first I assumed it was an unfortunately named “Reform Derby” set of indies. But no. Maybe they are doing a LibDem, very local strategy. If so, where could they get a seat?
I think if the Tories were doing Tory things, i.e. cutting tax now rather than having raised it to record highs, then they'd be up at around 34-35%.
They've lost a slice of their base because they're not playing to it.
Do you mean lower taxes by borrowing more or lower taxes by cutting public services?
If the latter, which services would you like to see cut?
So it’s Labour’s lowest score of the year, but not hugely out of the ordinary for the Tories.
There’s a trend over the year for Labour to lose a bit of VI - about 2% I’d say on average. Whereas Tory has oscillated around a fairly stable level.
The marginal gainers have been the Lib Dems. Started the year averaging 8-9, now generally 10-11. They’ve gone:
9,9,7,9,8,8,9,10,10,11,9,11,8,9,11,10,11,9,11, 12
Tories going nowhere but that's enough for Labour to be worried if I were Starmer.
Another year of that and he could be into NOM territory.
I find the Reform numbers fascinating. Do that many people even know who they are? But then I was amazed in the local elections in Derby in 2022 when I visited, to see them everywhere and doing well. At first I assumed it was an unfortunately named “Reform Derby” set of indies. But no. Maybe they are doing a LibDem, very local strategy. If so, where could they get a seat?
I think if the Tories were doing Tory things, i.e. cutting tax now rather than having raised it to record highs, then they'd be up at around 34-35%.
They've lost a slice of their base because they're not playing to it.
Yes, the Tories should have been cutting spending straight after the end of the pandemic and put in hiring freezes all across the public sector and pushed through productivity based pay rises rather than union settlements. They're all on strike all the time anyway and a proper Tory government would have got something out of it rather than just give in.
Right now the state needs to shed between 500k and 700k roles. We need to do that by freezing all recruitment in non front of house services and by freezing pay and promotions in all non front of house services and pushing people to the exit door. There are simply too many people employed by the state and that is why we have no room to cut tax. Hunt suggested today that welfare needs to be reformed in order to cut taxes, but he's completely ignored that the state now spends an additional £40-50bn per year on its payroll and DC pension contributions for all the people it has hired since 2017 when Theresa May put her foot on the "big state" accelerator and Boris slammed it down in 2019. Welfare savings may yield £15-20bn but cutting the state payroll is where the big saving, moving people from net beneficiaries as state employees to net contributors as private sector employees will huge increase productivity and room for tax cuts.
If the Tories do manage to scrape a victory the 5 year agenda has got to be shrinking the size of the state.
So it’s Labour’s lowest score of the year, but not hugely out of the ordinary for the Tories.
There’s a trend over the year for Labour to lose a bit of VI - about 2% I’d say on average. Whereas Tory has oscillated around a fairly stable level.
The marginal gainers have been the Lib Dems. Started the year averaging 8-9, now generally 10-11. They’ve gone:
9,9,7,9,8,8,9,10,10,11,9,11,8,9,11,10,11,9,11, 12
Tories going nowhere but that's enough for Labour to be worried if I were Starmer.
Another year of that and he could be into NOM territory.
LAB still massive favourites but still time for LAB to get nervous!
Remember 1986 when the LAB lead suddenly vanished around party conference season/late 1986
Tories had a very successful conference that year - "The Next Steps Forward" was the slogan or something like that. Gave them momentum. No doubt Rishi hopes for something similar.
Yes. It was used in the 1987 GE.
Perhaps Rishi will use 'We're driving forward'
Given his preferred mode of travel, 'Onwards and Upwards' would seem more appropriate.
From what I hear Sycamore Gap features in pictures on walls in houses in the area as The Haywain would in parts of East Anglia some years ago.
It's an assault on a symbol from the local mental / spiritual landscape, that will take 100 years to recover.
I think the best analogy I can do from my region is if the Major Oak was destroyed. It is something that we all visit, but is always THERE, at the back of my mind - assumed mental furniture.
I can't think of something similar in London which is natural, as there are so many symbols - so none are that unique. I can't do better than ask how would Londoners react to the demolition of the Monument or Cleopatra's Needle or Tower Bridge?
Or Orkney People to the Old Man of Hoy being taken away.
I note another poll has indicated a possible conservative revival but frankly I am not convinced but time will tell
However, I would like to pose a question to those who own, lease or are thinking of buying an EV if they aware sales are falling and in view of the shocking increase in insurance premiums, as per this Guardian piece, it must worry many that an EV is becoming a rich man's vehicle or a fleet vehicle, as few could afford these costs, especially with the cost of living crisis
Speaking as someone who resolutely refuses to use vehicle finance, and is distrustful of second hand batteries, I wasn’t expecting to buy a second hand until 2035 or so anyway, when they are all there is in the newish second hand market.
We are still a long way from their pricing being affordable.
I would just comment that at my age (nearly 80) I do not expect to own an ev in my lifetime
What do those buggies on which the elderly zip about run on, then?
So it’s Labour’s lowest score of the year, but not hugely out of the ordinary for the Tories.
There’s a trend over the year for Labour to lose a bit of VI - about 2% I’d say on average. Whereas Tory has oscillated around a fairly stable level.
The marginal gainers have been the Lib Dems. Started the year averaging 8-9, now generally 10-11. They’ve gone:
9,9,7,9,8,8,9,10,10,11,9,11,8,9,11,10,11,9,11, 12
Tories going nowhere but that's enough for Labour to be worried if I were Starmer.
Another year of that and he could be into NOM territory.
LAB still massive favourites but still time for LAB to get nervous!
Remember 1986 when the LAB lead suddenly vanished around party conference season/late 1986
Tories had a very successful conference that year - "The Next Steps Forward" was the slogan or something like that. Gave them momentum. No doubt Rishi hopes for something similar.
So it’s Labour’s lowest score of the year, but not hugely out of the ordinary for the Tories.
There’s a trend over the year for Labour to lose a bit of VI - about 2% I’d say on average. Whereas Tory has oscillated around a fairly stable level.
The marginal gainers have been the Lib Dems. Started the year averaging 8-9, now generally 10-11. They’ve gone:
9,9,7,9,8,8,9,10,10,11,9,11,8,9,11,10,11,9,11, 12
Tories going nowhere but that's enough for Labour to be worried if I were Starmer.
Another year of that and he could be into NOM territory.
LAB still massive favourites but still time for LAB to get nervous!
Remember 1986 when the LAB lead suddenly vanished around party conference season/late 1986
Tories had a very successful conference that year - "The Next Steps Forward" was the slogan or something like that. Gave them momentum. No doubt Rishi hopes for something similar.
I note another poll has indicated a possible conservative revival but frankly I am not convinced but time will tell
However, I would like to pose a question to those who own, lease or are thinking of buying an EV if they aware sales are falling and in view of the shocking increase in insurance premiums, as per this Guardian piece, it must worry many that an EV is becoming a rich man's vehicle or a fleet vehicle, as few could afford these costs, especially with the cost of living crisis
Speaking as someone who resolutely refuses to use vehicle finance, and is distrustful of second hand batteries, I wasn’t expecting to buy a second hand until 2035 or so anyway, when they are all there is in the newish second hand market.
We are still a long way from their pricing being affordable.
I would just comment that at my age (nearly 80) I do not expect to own an ev in my lifetime
What do those buggies on which the elderly zip about run on, then?
So it’s Labour’s lowest score of the year, but not hugely out of the ordinary for the Tories.
There’s a trend over the year for Labour to lose a bit of VI - about 2% I’d say on average. Whereas Tory has oscillated around a fairly stable level.
The marginal gainers have been the Lib Dems. Started the year averaging 8-9, now generally 10-11. They’ve gone:
9,9,7,9,8,8,9,10,10,11,9,11,8,9,11,10,11,9,11, 12
Tories going nowhere but that's enough for Labour to be worried if I were Starmer.
Another year of that and he could be into NOM territory.
I find the Reform numbers fascinating. Do that many people even know who they are? But then I was amazed in the local elections in Derby in 2022 when I visited, to see them everywhere and doing well. At first I assumed it was an unfortunately named “Reform Derby” set of indies. But no. Maybe they are doing a LibDem, very local strategy. If so, where could they get a seat?
I think if the Tories were doing Tory things, i.e. cutting tax now rather than having raised it to record highs, then they'd be up at around 34-35%.
They've lost a slice of their base because they're not playing to it.
Yes, the Tories should have been cutting spending straight after the end of the pandemic and put in hiring freezes all across the public sector and pushed through productivity based pay rises rather than union settlements. They're all on strike all the time anyway and a proper Tory government would have got something out of it rather than just give in.
Right now the state needs to shed between 500k and 700k roles. We need to do that by freezing all recruitment in non front of house services and by freezing pay and promotions in all non front of house services and pushing people to the exit door. There are simply too many people employed by the state and that is why we have no room to cut tax. Hunt suggested today that welfare needs to be reformed in order to cut taxes, but he's completely ignored that the state now spends an additional £40-50bn per year on its payroll and DC pension contributions for all the people it has hired since 2017 when Theresa May put her foot on the "big state" accelerator and Boris slammed it down in 2019. Welfare savings may yield £15-20bn but cutting the state payroll is where the big saving, moving people from net beneficiaries as state employees to net contributors as private sector employees will huge increase productivity and room for tax cuts.
If the Tories do manage to scrape a victory the 5 year agenda has got to be shrinking the size of the state.
It's wrong to imply that state spending on people is out of control; the RDEL is running at the same rate this year (16.4% GDP) as it was in 2012/13.
Time to move on from the neoliberal nonsense that sees all state spending as bad and all private spending as good.
So it’s Labour’s lowest score of the year, but not hugely out of the ordinary for the Tories.
There’s a trend over the year for Labour to lose a bit of VI - about 2% I’d say on average. Whereas Tory has oscillated around a fairly stable level.
The marginal gainers have been the Lib Dems. Started the year averaging 8-9, now generally 10-11. They’ve gone:
9,9,7,9,8,8,9,10,10,11,9,11,8,9,11,10,11,9,11, 12
Tories going nowhere but that's enough for Labour to be worried if I were Starmer.
Another year of that and he could be into NOM territory.
I find the Reform numbers fascinating. Do that many people even know who they are? But then I was amazed in the local elections in Derby in 2022 when I visited, to see them everywhere and doing well. At first I assumed it was an unfortunately named “Reform Derby” set of indies. But no. Maybe they are doing a LibDem, very local strategy. If so, where could they get a seat?
I think if the Tories were doing Tory things, i.e. cutting tax now rather than having raised it to record highs, then they'd be up at around 34-35%.
They've lost a slice of their base because they're not playing to it.
Yes, the Tories should have been cutting spending straight after the end of the pandemic and put in hiring freezes all across the public sector and pushed through productivity based pay rises rather than union settlements. They're all on strike all the time anyway and a proper Tory government would have got something out of it rather than just give in.
Right now the state needs to shed between 500k and 700k roles. We need to do that by freezing all recruitment in non front of house services and by freezing pay and promotions in all non front of house services and pushing people to the exit door. There are simply too many people employed by the state and that is why we have no room to cut tax. Hunt suggested today that welfare needs to be reformed in order to cut taxes, but he's completely ignored that the state now spends an additional £40-50bn per year on its payroll and DC pension contributions for all the people it has hired since 2017 when Theresa May put her foot on the "big state" accelerator and Boris slammed it down in 2019. Welfare savings may yield £15-20bn but cutting the state payroll is where the big saving, moving people from net beneficiaries as state employees to net contributors as private sector employees will huge increase productivity and room for tax cuts.
If the Tories do manage to scrape a victory the 5 year agenda has got to be shrinking the size of the state.
So it’s not just your football views no sane person would listen to. Cut 500,000 roles? 😂
I note another poll has indicated a possible conservative revival but frankly I am not convinced but time will tell
However, I would like to pose a question to those who own, lease or are thinking of buying an EV if they aware sales are falling and in view of the shocking increase in insurance premiums, as per this Guardian piece, it must worry many that an EV is becoming a rich man's vehicle or a fleet vehicle, as few could afford these costs, especially with the cost of living crisis
Speaking as someone who resolutely refuses to use vehicle finance, and is distrustful of second hand batteries, I wasn’t expecting to buy a second hand until 2035 or so anyway, when they are all there is in the newish second hand market.
We are still a long way from their pricing being affordable.
I looked today, an EV (mg4) works out at about £350 per month on a lease deal, the cheapest similar ICE car (Kia Ceed sportswagen) is about £230/month.
So it’s Labour’s lowest score of the year, but not hugely out of the ordinary for the Tories.
There’s a trend over the year for Labour to lose a bit of VI - about 2% I’d say on average. Whereas Tory has oscillated around a fairly stable level.
The marginal gainers have been the Lib Dems. Started the year averaging 8-9, now generally 10-11. They’ve gone:
9,9,7,9,8,8,9,10,10,11,9,11,8,9,11,10,11,9,11, 12
Tories going nowhere but that's enough for Labour to be worried if I were Starmer.
Another year of that and he could be into NOM territory.
I find the Reform numbers fascinating. Do that many people even know who they are? But then I was amazed in the local elections in Derby in 2022 when I visited, to see them everywhere and doing well. At first I assumed it was an unfortunately named “Reform Derby” set of indies. But no. Maybe they are doing a LibDem, very local strategy. If so, where could they get a seat?
I think if the Tories were doing Tory things, i.e. cutting tax now rather than having raised it to record highs, then they'd be up at around 34-35%.
They've lost a slice of their base because they're not playing to it.
Do you mean lower taxes by borrowing more or lower taxes by cutting public services?
If the latter, which services would you like to see cut?
Hmmm.
Doctors, Nurses, Teachers, Service Support Staff or Care Staff to be slashed?
I'd say they need to recognise we need a period of higher taxation to help deal with national debt, and fund all those Conservative Govt promises.
What a match! Amazing ending, officiating was definitely a bit dodgy for the offside, was a goal for sure, the reds were deserved though.
Were they bollocks. The first was not a red to any neutral eye. The second included one non-yellow card, but was just about forgivable because that happens and the second yellow was fair.
And I don’t like Liverpool and their fans.
Plus this...
Oh dear. PGMOL statement: "PGMOL acknowledge a significant human error occurred during the first half of Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool. The goal by Luiz Diaz was disallowed for offside by the on-field team of match officials. This was a clear and obvious factual error...1/2 https://x.com/philmcnulty/status/1708199597888139556?t=RCGNTdlsXo7rMJd1-wHpnA&s=08
Everyone could see it was inside except VAR. They didn't even bother drawing lines. How is it possible to make that kind of mistake?
New Inaction Man figure. Billionaire Barbie sold separately...
We should send Grant Shapps to Ukraine, and put him in charge of Russian logistics.
WATF?
Shapps is a (redacted for OGH's sake) who has (redacted for OGH's sake). We know that. So does Sunak.
Is this a genuine front page?
I went and read the actual article. It’s mostly talking about moving the training to the west of the country in due course, and using the navy to secure some of the grain exports under the relevant UN resolutions. Not exactly as advertised and fairly sensible stuff.
There is clearly a market for a pragmatic centre-right party. The problem is that the people who could form it are scattered across the Tory, LibDem and Labour parties, or like Stewart walking in the political desert. How can that strand of thought unite?
If we could answer that our country would have a much brighter future
Ironically the problem has arisen from the parties adopting one member, one vote systems for leadership elections.
It's become a viscous circle, especially in the Conservative Party. Members vote for a more extreme leader > policy lurches to the right > centrists leave the party in frustration > the remaining membership is even more extreme.
If they are not careful they will end up in a sticky situation…
"Grant Shapps to send UK troops to Ukraine Army will train Zelensky’s military on the ground and Navy may move into Black Sea"
Has Commodore Shapps explained how he is going to get the Royal Navy through the Bosporus past Turkiye in defiance of the Montreux Convention in time of armed conflict?
Or is Doc Holliday-Shapps shooting from the hip again?
I don't agree. My Tesla insurance went up nearly 60% - which is a lot. Then again the zero road tax vs the £480 a year I paid for my previous two cars helps cover that.
Car insurance is shooting up for most drivers of most cars. It is worse for EVs - that is true. But the suggestion that it is *only* for EVs isn't true.
That British troops to Ukraine bit from Shappsie is obviously just a bit of a pre tory conference wheeze. One of them getting killed wouldn’t be a problem ("training accident") but an active duty getting captured would put Sunatler, Stupidly and Shappsie in a tight spot.
Shappsie has also discussed the possibility of putting RN vessels into the Black Sea. Presumably, Green T-Shirt, who while prone to inadvertently inviting nazis to events isn't stupid, knows the worth of Shappsie's words on these issues.
"Grant Shapps to send UK troops to Ukraine Army will train Zelensky’s military on the ground and Navy may move into Black Sea"
Has Commodore Shapps explained how he is going to get the Royal Navy through the Bosporus past Turkiye in defiance of the Montreux Convention in time of armed conflict?
Or is he actually just the usual Twatto Shappo with whom we are familiar?
It’s just possible that the actual proposals, half leaked/briefed to the Telegraph, and thought up by the actual experts, are complex, sensible, and well thought through.
I don't agree. My Tesla insurance went up nearly 60% - which is a lot. Then again the zero road tax vs the £480 a year I paid for my previous two cars helps cover that.
Car insurance is shooting up for most drivers of most cars. It is worse for EVs - that is true. But the suggestion that it is *only* for EVs isn't true.
To be fair I didn’t suggest it was only for ev - just the article was very interesting
"Grant Shapps to send UK troops to Ukraine Army will train Zelensky’s military on the ground and Navy may move into Black Sea"
Has Commodore Shapps explained how he is going to get the Royal Navy through the Bosporus past Turkiye in defiance of the Montreux Convention in time of armed conflict?
Or is he actually just the usual Twatto Shappo with whom we are familiar?
It’s just possible that the actual proposals, half leaked/briefed to the Telegraph, and thought up by the actual experts, are complex, sensible, and well thought through.
I will admit that I am slightly allergic to Grant Shapps since 'Michael Green', and his dishonest claims about not having second employment whilst being an MP.
That British troops to Ukraine bit from Shappsie is obviously just a bit of a pre tory conference wheeze. One of them getting killed wouldn’t be a problem ("training accident") but an active duty getting captured would put Sunatler, Stupidly and Shappsie in a tight spot.
Shappsie has also discussed the possibility of putting RN vessels into the Black Sea. Presumably, Green T-Shirt, who while prone to inadvertently inviting nazis to events...
Comments
"Sean Thomas
What we lost with the fallen sycamore
It was more than just a tree"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-we-lost-with-the-fallen-sycamore
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So it’s Labour’s lowest score of the year, but not hugely out of the ordinary for the Tories.
There’s a trend over the year for Labour to lose a bit of VI - about 2% I’d say on average. Whereas Tory has oscillated around a fairly stable level.
The marginal gainers have been the Lib Dems. Started the year averaging 8-9, now generally 10-11. They’ve gone:
9,9,7,9,8,8,9,10,10,11,9,11,8,9,11,10,11,9,11, 12
Another year of that and he could be into NOM territory.
Trump calls for store robbers to be shot in speech to California Republicans
Former president and frontrunner for GOP nomination also warns ‘this country will die’ if Joe Biden wins election
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/30/donald-trump-california-speech-robbers-shot
Remember 1986 when the LAB lead suddenly vanished around party conference season/late 1986
1 - NL: A street where it is unclear whether the "cycle lanes" are actually cycle lanes or are "suggestion lanes", which is a not very good translation of a feature designed to make a road or street look visually narrower in order to set the perception of a lower appropriate speed. The usual NL clarity around what is what is fudged.
That's something we hardly ever do in this country. An example for UK use could be for a row of trees is put between the carriageway and the footway, rather than putting the footway right up against the high speed road surface - which makes parents tell kids not to use it. Often new or improved roads have space.
https://youtu.be/sX9eihjVDjA?t=293
2 - UK - a road junction with a stepped up cycle track, which turns into a cycle lane with no transition indicated to the motor vehicles, then turns into an advanced stop line with a bike box, and the cycles I think have their own set of mini traffic lights without modal separation. It all seems thrown together.
Two errors here: cyclist is on a mobile - Cycling w/o due care through that lot imo; cammer drives over the stop line into the bike box when they could stop.
https://youtu.be/sX9eihjVDjA?t=358
They've lost a slice of their base because they're not playing to it.
@EuropeElects
Germany, INSA poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (-1)
AfD-ID: 22% (+0.5)
SPD-S&D: 18% (+0.5)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 14% (+0.5)
FDP-RE: 7% (+0.5)
LINKE-LEFT: 5%
FW-RE: 3%
+/- vs. 22-25 September 2023
Fieldwork: 25-29 September 2023
Sample size: 1,206"
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1708063178200870932
It's become a viscous circle, especially in the Conservative Party. Members vote for a more extreme leader > policy lurches to the right > centrists leave the party in frustration > the remaining membership is even more extreme.
If it's in seats Labour needs to win or hold, it's a problem for Labour.
If it's in the 50 or so plausible Lib/Con battles, a reduction in the Lab-Con gap is very bad news for the Conservatives.
See the shape of the wikiworms in the run-up to 1997.
Perhaps Rishi will use 'We're driving forward'
If the latter, which services would you like to see cut?
Right now the state needs to shed between 500k and 700k roles. We need to do that by freezing all recruitment in non front of house services and by freezing pay and promotions in all non front of house services and pushing people to the exit door. There are simply too many people employed by the state and that is why we have no room to cut tax. Hunt suggested today that welfare needs to be reformed in order to cut taxes, but he's completely ignored that the state now spends an additional £40-50bn per year on its payroll and DC pension contributions for all the people it has hired since 2017 when Theresa May put her foot on the "big state" accelerator and Boris slammed it down in 2019. Welfare savings may yield £15-20bn but cutting the state payroll is where the big saving, moving people from net beneficiaries as state employees to net contributors as private sector employees will huge increase productivity and room for tax cuts.
If the Tories do manage to scrape a victory the 5 year agenda has got to be shrinking the size of the state.
From what I hear Sycamore Gap features in pictures on walls in houses in the area as The Haywain would in parts of East Anglia some years ago.
It's an assault on a symbol from the local mental / spiritual landscape, that will take 100 years to recover.
I think the best analogy I can do from my region is if the Major Oak was destroyed. It is something that we all visit, but is always THERE, at the back of my mind - assumed mental furniture.
I can't think of something similar in London which is natural, as there are so many symbols - so none are that unique. I can't do better than ask how would Londoners react to the demolition of the Monument or Cleopatra's Needle or Tower Bridge?
Or Orkney People to the Old Man of Hoy being taken away.
Time to move on from the neoliberal nonsense that sees all state spending as bad and all private spending as good.
As an ev owner do you agree with me that owing an ev is for the wealthy or fleet buyer ?
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/sep/30/the-quotes-were-5000-or-more-electric-vehicle-owners-face-soaring-insurance-costs
https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1708221045235147009?s=20
Doctors, Nurses, Teachers, Service Support Staff or Care Staff to be slashed?
I'd say they need to recognise we need a period of higher taxation to help deal with national debt, and fund all those Conservative Govt promises.
Shapps is a self-obsessed (redacted for OGH's sake) who has (redacted for OGH's sake). We know that. So does Sunak.
Is this a genuine front page?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/sep/30/slovakia-election-2023-results-robert-fico-michal-simecka-peter-pellegrini-richard-sulik-latest-news
In a conversation with GPT4 Voice and a human, the AI will be rated higher than 99% of humans in understanding, synthesis, articulation, and clarity.
Plenty of humans will still have insights that it can't have, but it's a remarkable step in AI.
https://twitter.com/TimSuzman/status/1708223698149445822
Putting British boots on the ground or in theatre is not a good move. If they are fired upon, none of the choices are good.
"Grant Shapps to send UK troops to Ukraine
Army will train Zelensky’s military on the ground and Navy may move into Black Sea"
Has Commodore Shapps explained how he is going to get the Royal Navy through the Bosporus past Turkiye in defiance of the Montreux Convention in time of armed conflict?
Or is Doc Holliday-Shapps shooting from the hip again?
Car insurance is shooting up for most drivers of most cars. It is worse for EVs - that is true. But the suggestion that it is *only* for EVs isn't true.
Shappsie has also discussed the possibility of putting RN vessels into the Black Sea. Presumably, Green T-Shirt, who while prone to inadvertently inviting nazis to events isn't stupid, knows the worth of Shappsie's words on these issues.
New thread
Even not mentioning the self-promoting cycnicism.