Categories
Hard to see a LAB overall majority with this poll – politicalbetting.com
Hard to see a LAB overall majority with this poll – politicalbetting.com
With Labour hoping to make at least 25 gains from the SNP in Scotland there’s a new poll from YouGov that has the party’s deficit there up 7%.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
YouGov's weighted numbers in England are 48-26-11 so a 12-point Conservative lead is now a 22-point Labour lead which is a swing of 17%.
I agree it won't be that but the point is Labour won't need a big win in Scotland if it gets a bigger win in England.
Though as I have said previously if the Police Scotland investigation into the SNP is a damp squib, then I expect their loses may be reasonably contained
With R&W showing a dead heat the week previously, I think it's probably an outlier. Mind you if the SNP *did* win Rutherglen, I think Reeves' overcautious approach on not spending would be to blame (e.g. the two-child benefit cap).
Just as long as this immoral, borderline corrupt, cynical, clueless, incompetent bunch don't let the door hit their arses on the way to six figure directorships in the private sector.
That'll do nicely for me.
But it would be harder at this level. Yes the perennial point is we won't really know until the campaigns (not that most campaigns change things, but it has happened), but how much recovery are we really expecting from the Tories? Not much I suspect. The SNP? That's more feasible.
Juliette de Causans says enhancing her looks is more likely to boost her party’s cause of supporting Europe and the environment"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/09/15/juliette-de-causans-french-politics-digital-edit-posters/
This is very much a mistake on their part. If they fail to win an overall majority, and try to start cosying up to the Lib Dems for support, what kind of reaction will they expect? If Labour had any sense at all, they would wind down their campaigning in Mid Beds and concentrate their efforts and resources on Rutherglen and Tamwoth to make sure of those, and leave it to the Lib Dems to put an end to Tory domination in Mid Beds.
Dad got some propaganda about it through the door the other day clamining that it only added a minute to the average journey - he observed that this was utterly inplausible unless the average journey used to only have a total of only 2 minutes in a 30 limit.
Labour's campaign is now getting serious front-bench engagement (Wes Streeting today) as well as a punishing effort - five canvass sessions plus 7 leaflet rounds today.
What did happen was that Labour pulled out of their slumber, rising from 25 percent to about 37
precent at the end, and 41 percent on the day itself.
Whether that was Jez's brilliance on the stump, one last push to thwart Brexit, or whatever, he pulled the anti-Conservative vote behind him.
So who are all these people who are terrified of Labour and/or are willing to vote for Rishi as a Magic Grandpa?
Yes, there's time for the polls to tighten. But we've been saying that since Rishi took over and, once the "crazy lady gone" bounce had happened, the polls have remained resolutely loose for nearly a year.
That one minute sounds plausible to me. I'd go with the Welsh Government analysis, not the opinion of your dad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGr_PVUHn2I
If so who cares
Ann Widdecombe at Immigration and Justice and David Bull at Health
https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1702750941735161993?s=20
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Slovak_parliamentary_election
I used to commute 20 miles across part of North Wales, there were perhaps 4 or 5 junctions, at most of which it was unusual to wait. My car comfortably accelerates to 30mph under 10 seconds (if I floor it, it's probably more like 2-3 seconds - it's 0-60 is under 10). Probably 8 miles or so of that 20 miles was in 30 limits - maybe 17 minutes driving allowing a total of a minute for the junctions and acceleration times. That same 8 miles is now going to take around 25 minutes, so if I was still doing it, I would spend almost a quarter of an hour extra commuting every day, on a commute that was only about 30 minutes each to start with. That's a 25% increase in journey time.
Anyone claiming that sort of change is marginal is either terrible at maths or completely barking mad.
Going back to that "it only adds a minute a journey" claim, taking my numbers above as pretty typical of quite a lot of North Wales, the only way the claim stacks up there is if the mean journey is 3-4 minutes, which seems implausibly short.
(And most car journeys are implausibly short, to be fair!)
The industry driving people to breed the dog is a type of Ponzi scheme, though one that comes with appalling consequences.
By Will Dunn"
https://www.newstatesman.com/business/2023/09/american-xl-bully-dog-attack-monster-internet
Of course it's worth nothing that car speedos generally under read by about 3mph, so if people drive around with the needle pointing at the number this makes things even worse - travel at 17mph takes 58% extra time per mile compared to 27mph.
So it's only very short journeys that would be affected to the extent you are suggesting, and the absolute difference in time will be tiny as a result.
https://datamap.gov.wales/maps/roads-affected-by-changes-to-the-speed-limit-on-re/view#/
I used to commute 20 miles across part of North Wales, there were perhaps 4 or 5 junctions, at most of which it was unusual to wait. My car comfortably accelerates to 30mph under 10 seconds (if I floor it, it's probably more like 2-3 seconds - it's 0-60 is under 10). Probably 8 miles or so of that 20 miles was in 30 limits - maybe 17 minutes driving allowing a total of a minute for the junctions and acceleration times. That same 8 miles is now going to take around 25 minutes, so if I was still doing it, I would spend almost a quarter of an hour extra commuting every day, on a commute that was only about 30 minutes each to start with. That's a 25% increase in journey time.
Anyone claiming that sort of change is marginal is either terrible at maths or completely barking mad.
Going back to that "it only adds a minute a journey" claim, taking my numbers above as pretty typical of quite a lot of North Wales, the only way the claim stacks up there is if the mean journey is 3-4 minutes, which seems implausibly short.
I'll go with the Welsh Government analysis unless you can provide an alternative.
(And most car journeys are implausibly short, to be fair!)
I've just provided a fairly detailed worked example which explains why the Welsh governments number is very unlikely to be true. The only way it can possibly be true is if the average journey contains less than 2 minutes of driving at the speed limit in a 30 zone. This doesn't pass the sniff test for "is it plausible".
My sister worked for the Welsh civil service in a data analysis function at a fairly high level (although a different sector to roads). Her cynical observation was that most of the statistical requests she got were for attempts at what she described as "policy based evidence making". The ones where the data didn't support the chosen policies (which was most of them) mysteriously never seemed to get followed up or published.
I went to school with a boy, whose father had been a Farnborough boffin. He wrote a well argued paper pointing out that Concorde would miss all its targets, and that large subsonic airliners were the way to go. His reward for speaking out of turn was to be fired and black balled in the U.K. aviation industry. It was made clear to him that this was done at a political level, since Concorde was political.
He ended up working for NASA, and had the enjoyment of turning the tables on one of his persecutors some years later, when he, in turn tried to get a job in the US aviation industry.
Not the point. Just pointing out your maths was bunkum. You specifically said a journey that would take 10 min now takes 15. It can't. It never can, unless you never use your brakes on the entire journey and can accelerate to 30 in an instant and do an emergency stop when you arrive. You might have a valid point, but it doesn't help if you exaggerate the issue. The difference will not be 5 min. It will be a lot less. It is simple maths.
I would think the average speed in a 30 zone is probably around 30 (a lot of drivers speed a bit over) so the calc may not be far off
No doubt that is true, but if you are going to apply that you have to apply it to the 20 mph limit as well cancelling out that effect.
Not really. If we're arguing that, on paper, average speeds should be are less than the speed limit, that applies to both 20mph and 30mph zones. If we make the case that in reality drivers speed a bit so achieving an average of the speed limit (plausible as an approximation), we have to apply that to both 20mph and 30mph zones. If that's the case, then my maths holds exactly, and the same distance covered in these areas takes half as long again in a 20mph zone.
Of course it's worth nothing that car speedos generally under read by about 3mph, so if people drive around with the needle pointing at the number this makes things even worse - travel at 17mph takes 58% extra time per mile compared to 27mph.
Just checked this map and very little of the roads, by mileage, are affected by the 20mph change in North Wales.
So it's only very short journeys that would be affected to the extent you are suggesting, and the absolute difference in time will be tiny as a result.
https://datamap.gov.wales/maps/roads-affected-by-changes-to-the-speed-limit-on-re/view#/
Try doing say Barmouth to Criccieth under the new regime - lot of new 20mph in that.
"I believe that the XL bully is a kind, beautiful natured breed that loves children and people in general, and are very loyal and loving pets."
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/643611
https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=643611
He’s a nut job and a has-been.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YR4CseY9pk
Ditto David Walliams.
In fact Williams is famous in my household for being an out-and-out awful human being.
Remember what I said about learned helplessness? It has never occurred to Sunak to raise a tax to pay for this? A government that cannot tax cannot govern. He literally does not know how to run a country.
Plan to resign from Boris Johnson's cabinet shared with News Corp executives
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/15/murdoch-team-told-sunak-not-to-quit-over-partygate/ (£££)
Rishi Sunak, then Chancellor of the Exchequer, had planned to resign on receiving a partygate FPN, but was persuaded to stay on by Murdoch executives, only resigning after The Saj as part of a wave that would end the premiership of Boris Johnson. If Sunak had resigned earlier, he might not have become Prime Minister.
This is revealed in a forthcoming book by Telegraph man Ben Riley-Smith, The Right to Rule : Thirteen Years, Five Prime Ministers and the Implosion of the Tories.
Fruit preserve could have ‘citrus’ added to its name under Brussels ‘breakfast directives’, as UK mulls whether to follow suit
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/15/citrus-marmalade-jam-european-union-breakfast-directives/ (£££)
The EU might change to calling jam marmalade, and marmalade will become citrus marmalade. Britain (huzzah for Brexit) will need to choose whether to follow suit or diverge from the continent by keeping the proper names.
But in Northern Ireland, thanks to Boris's broken Brexit and Rishi's Windsor Framework, locally-made jams and marmalades will have to follow EU rules but those imported from mainland Britain will not, although of course the government might change our rules in parallel with Brussels.
I would think the average speed in a 30 zone is probably around 30 (a lot of drivers speed a bit over) so the calc may not be far off
No doubt that is true, but if you are going to apply that you have to apply it to the 20 mph limit as well cancelling out that effect.
Not really. If we're arguing that, on paper, average speeds should be are less than the speed limit, that applies to both 20mph and 30mph zones. If we make the case that in reality drivers speed a bit so achieving an average of the speed limit (plausible as an approximation), we have to apply that to both 20mph and 30mph zones. If that's the case, then my maths holds exactly, and the same distance covered in these areas takes half as long again in a 20mph zone.
Of course it's worth nothing that car speedos generally under read by about 3mph, so if people drive around with the needle pointing at the number this makes things even worse - travel at 17mph takes 58% extra time per mile compared to 27mph.
Just checked this map and very little of the roads, by mileage, are affected by the 20mph change in North Wales.
So it's only very short journeys that would be affected to the extent you are suggesting, and the absolute difference in time will be tiny as a result.
https://datamap.gov.wales/maps/roads-affected-by-changes-to-the-speed-limit-on-re/view#/
Try doing say Barmouth to Criccieth under the new regime - lot of new 20mph in that.
You are missing two very obvious points.
1. Many of the 'through' routes will remain at 30.
2. The whole point of the excercise is to slow traffic down - in mainly residential streets - to reduce accidents.
So why dont you just SLOW DOWN!!
He will prioritise the former because there are simply far more seats there.
Mid Silla dynasty bling.
The breed isn't like that anyway but dogs don't "love children and people in general"; they are pack animals and to the extent they appear to be it's because they see themselves as part of that pack with a clear role in its pecking order, and are loyal to who leads it and feeds them. Sometimes this extends to jealously, and then more basic instincts can kick in, which is why they can attack kids. They won't generally attack the owner unless they are absurdly indisciplined and want to make a play for pack leader.
Either way, basic dog psychology needs to be considered here. It's an animal - not a person with four legs.
The whole thing is pointless if it doesn't run into Euston.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1702849789308932497
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZtcZ924kOQ
Their situation will be happier if they can get more of the industrial capacity and resources of Donbas before the SMO ends as they can offer those up for plunderous rapine by EU/US corporations and thus pique more interest in 'reconstruction'.
That a joke?
I am glad to see NZ followed the script last night with a thumping win over Namibia. But I cant see them winning this year.
Todays matches have three predictable wins but still interesting:
Samoa v Chile - This is first opportunuty to see Samoa - they should easily see off Chile by 40 pts - and be a good indicator of performance for their big games coming up against Argentina and England. I expect Samoa to make it out of their group.
Wales v Portugal - the last time these teams played it resulted in the highest ever score for Wales. Wont happen this time but Wales should win comfortably by 40 pts.
Ireland v Tonga. This should be closest match today. Tonga should provide some interesting moments but will lose by 20 pts. Ireland need to be very careful to avoid injury or red cards...
Huge agricultural sector, significant natural resources, and a relatively developed industrial sector.
I know it offends your Leninist beliefs, but there's a fair chance of its recovering quite rapidly postwar.
Unlike Russia, probably.
And not just the US/EU.
Korea signs agreement on post-war reconstruction of Ukraine
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=359291
Penny rich and pound poor, forgetting we get what we pay for. Absurdly stupid as you say, and why it is time for change.
What interest did S Korea take in Ukraine pre-war, for example ?
Of course much depends on the invasion's defeat within the next couple of years, but I think that's reasonably likely.