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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-Election Preview : February 13th 2014

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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Mick_Pork said:

    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick Feb 12

    Floods forced my Wythenshawe by-election report off #c4news tonight, so you can watch it here online instead http://bit.ly/1gsXzwr
    Crick muckraking at its finest!
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Mick_Pork said:

    Jason Farrell ‏@JasonFarrellSky 1m

    Paul Nuttall UKIP MEP accuses labour of stink bombing his campaign team in By-Election.
    LOL

    Well, we all know there is a bad smell when you lift the lid on the sewer that is Labour
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    ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    Hugh said:

    Hugh said:

    Hugh said:


    What's the point of that? Do you want me to say "no, you're the one that's discredited!"

    Tell me again about the grapes Roman Britain Mr "consultant geologist" who knows is stuff and isn't at all a professional obfuscator, not at all.

    Here's some science babe x

    www.ipcc.ch


    Hmm. Two nights ago I linked to a series of peer reviewed papers outlining some of the positive and negative feedback mechanisms that are believed to influence climate change. This was as a result of you showing you had no idea what the concept of climate forcing meant (a concept by the way that is valid whichever side of the AGW argument you are on.)

    Your response is to link to a political pressure group and try and claim it is science.

    Have you actually found out what feedback mechanisms do yet Hugh? Or are you still blindly relying on your internet research abilities to talk your way out of this?

    By the way the whole Roman grapes argument is meaningless in climate science and of course I have never at any time mentioned them. Clever trick but it failed.
    Oh you did. Casually chucked in some past warm episodes just to muddy the waters. It's what you do, you cheeky "consultant geologist" you. Warming->greenhouse gases in the past, that was one of yours before you moved on wasn't it?

    You don't really want to talk about aerosols though do you, you just want to sound credible enough to seed doubt to any casual reader.

    Ipcc, pressure group, lol.
    You see this is what you do and why you look so foolish. I link to peer reviewed papers and explain the basics of the subject whilst you make fatuous comments which have no relevance to the argument. It is no wonder you are not taken seriously.

    What I said is that my speciality was Bronze Age and Roman Warm periods. I made no reference at all to grapes because they are irrelevant. Its all about rocks and soils with a bit of tree rings and large numbers of dead snail thrown in. Geology remember, not oenology.

    Groan. No Richard, I linked to thousands of peer reviewed papers explaining the basics, and you called them a pressure group.

    And on we drone...

    You do know the IPCC have had to remove portions of their reports several times after they have some items have been found to be nothing more than regurgitated propaganda from Greenpeace?

    That on more than one occasion scientists whose work has been quoted have been felt impelled to rebut the IPCC interpretation of their work?
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Surely someone who might be on their way to Westminster as an MP in the future?

    AndyJS said:

    First Tory win in Kingstanding since 1969.

    As I posted earlier , this is not a Tory win but a Gary Sambrook win . No other Conservative candidate would have come close to winning .
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited February 2014

    Andrew Neil suggesting the only important thing about the by election is shether Ukip have beaten the Tories into 2nd???

    So how well the Labour vote holds up and whether the Lib Dems keep their deposit don't really matter. Neil showing his impartial credentials there.

    It's not as if it was gong to get wall to wall coverage anyway with the floods and storms completely dominating the news. I suspect a good many westminster journos would like to have their copy written right now with a quick and easy summary. Safe labour hold just isn't interesting while there is at least a little interest in second/third place and just how badly the lib dems did. That should give them enough to go on. If the result fits then the narrative of the kippers going off the boil will be pushed by tory friendly journos like Neil for obvious reasons.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    fitalass said:

    Surely someone who might be on their way to Westminster as an MP in the future?

    AndyJS said:

    First Tory win in Kingstanding since 1969.

    As I posted earlier , this is not a Tory win but a Gary Sambrook win . No other Conservative candidate would have come close to winning .
    He is only in his early 20's
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Floater said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Jason Farrell ‏@JasonFarrellSky 1m

    Paul Nuttall UKIP MEP accuses labour of stink bombing his campaign team in By-Election.
    LOL
    Well, we all know there is a bad smell when you lift the lid on the sewer that is Labour

    Did they do it at the count?? That's why it's so funny.
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    Look like I've won my Wythenshawe spread bet on turnout. I sold at 33 so 28% produces a nice profit - 5 times my stake level.


    I love spread betting
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Hugh said:

    Hugh said:

    Hugh said:

    Hugh said:


    What's the point of that? Do you want me to say "no, you're the one that's discredited!"

    Tell me again about the grapes Roman Britain Mr "consultant geologist" who knows is stuff and isn't at all a professional obfuscator, not at all.

    Here's some science babe x

    www.ipcc.ch


    Hmm. Two nights ago I linked to a series of peer reviewed papers outlining some of the positive and negative feedback mechanisms that are believed to influence climate change. This was as a result of you showing you had no idea what the concept of climate forcing meant (a concept by the way that is valid whichever side of the AGW argument you are on.)

    Your response is to link to a political pressure group and try and claim it is science.

    Have you actually found out what feedback mechanisms do yet Hugh? Or are you still blindly relying on your internet research abilities to talk your way out of this?

    By the way the whole Roman grapes argument is meaningless in climate science and of course I have never at any time mentioned them. Clever trick but it failed.
    Oh you did. Casually chucked in some past warm episodes just to muddy the waters. It's what you do, you cheeky "consultant geologist" you. Warming->greenhouse gases in the past, that was one of yours before you moved on wasn't it?

    You don't really want to talk about aerosols though do you, you just want to sound credible enough to seed doubt to any casual reader.

    Ipcc, pressure group, lol.
    You see this is what you do and why you look so foolish. I link to peer reviewed papers and explain the basics of the subject whilst you make fatuous comments which have no relevance to the argument. It is no wonder you are not taken seriously.

    What I said is that my speciality was Bronze Age and Roman Warm periods. I made no reference at all to grapes because they are irrelevant. Its all about rocks and soils with a bit of tree rings and large numbers of dead snail thrown in. Geology remember, not oenology.

    Groan. No Richard, I linked to thousands of peer reviewed papers explaining the basics, and you called them a pressure group.

    And on we drone...
    Actually you didn't. You linked to a political interpretation of science. It is sad that you do not now the difference.

    Moderators, for my own good can you ban me from interacting with this geologist climate denying professional obfuscator?

    It's clogging up the thread but strangely irresistable.
    Lost the argument so throwing in the towel....need I say any more.

    Good night, and good night on the AGW nonsense - a disgrace to the scientific method.
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    ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    edited February 2014
    Hugh said:



    Try to synthesise thousands of peer reviewed papers from across the globe into one report that is so simple it could even be read by a geologist and that will happen.


    The IPCC is a political organ of the green lobby nothing more. The fact you do not realise that shows us the credibility of your scientific knowledge.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020
    edited February 2014
    Hugh said:

    Hugh said:

    I would put serious money that Richard on this forum has stayed well clear of all such scientific papers and reviews of papers on the subject, instead offering his amateur opinions on a discussion forum in the belief that his opinions are of equal value to those peer reviewed theories from those with expert knowledge in a subject.

    If you're referring to Richard Tyndall, then I would recommend that you keep your serious money in your bank account.

    I've had many strong disagreements with Richard, but on this matter he knows his stuff. Experts can and do disagree, of course, so I'm not saying he's necessarily right, but he does speak with some good knowledge.
    He's not an "expert".

    He is though very intelligent and knows where the waters can be muddied if the layman is listening, as all the best professional climate science obfuscators are.

    Do they send them to school somewhere in Russia or Dubai or something to teach them how to do this? It's impressive.
    University College Cardiff. 1983 -1986. Geology and Archaeology
    As I said, not an expert.

    "University of Nether Wallop, Art and Drama, 1991-1989. Take that!"
    Who knows who you are Hugh? Frankly who cares? Like so many other scientific illiterates on here you can claim what you like because you are anonymous. Of course the difference between us is that I post under my own name because I have nothing to hide. Everything I say on here can be checked and certainly there are a fair few on here who have a reasonable knowledge of my background.

    You on the other hand are just another internet warrior with a desperately poor grasp of climate science (even of the bits you are supposedly agreeing with)
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,062
    Mick_Pork said:

    Andrew Neil suggesting the only important thing about the by election is shether Ukip have beaten the Tories into 2nd???

    So how well the Labour vote holds up and whether the Lib Dems keep their deposit don't really matter. Neil showing his impartial credentials there.

    It's not as if it was gong to get wall to wall coverage anyway with the floods and storms completely dominating the news. I suspect a good many westminster journos would like to have their copy written right now with a quick and easy summary. Safe labour hold just isn't interesting while there is at least a little interest in second/third place and just how badly the lib dems did. That should give them enough to go on. If the result fits then the narrative of the kippers going off the boil will be pushed by tory friendly journos like Neil for obvious reasons.
    When it comes to by elections people are generally interested in who's one and what placing everyone is. However more important to the national picture is the respective vote shares and how they've changed since the election.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    edited February 2014
    Be careful with that Mike. Get one wrong and you could be well out. Imagine if you had a spread bet on RESPECT in Bradford.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815


    Its another case of bad visuals from Cameron.

    He wasn't interested in the Somerset farmers being flooded, he wasn't interested in the Yorkshire floods of 2007 but now he's very much concerned with apparantly unlimited money available when the stockbroker belt is affected.

    But to be even handed the Labour government didn't give a toss about the Yorkshire floods of 2007 either and Cameron preferred to go on a mud hut building photostunt when his own constituency was flooded that year.

    It will though add to the image that the political establishment is only interested in issues if London is affected.


    Your prejudice against Cameron knows no bounds. If anything, I'd say he and the government (and the media) have, at least until the last few days, rather neglected the flood victims of Berkshire, Surrey and Kent compared with those (a much smaller number) hit in the Somerset Levels.
    LOL

    YOUR prejudice for Cameron knows no bounds.

    Which as you're no fool is blinding you to what the visuals look like.

    Its only been the last few days when the focus has been on the stockbroker belt.

    And its only now that Cameron starts promising money.

    Now it doesn't matter whether those two things are connected because what it looks like is Cameron only being concerned when the stockbroker belt is affected.

    Now whether that's true or not the bottom line is that the visuals are not good for Cameron.


    ar

    It is not a North-South battle.

    1. When a natural crisis impacts many people over a long time and the media focus on the story to the exclusion of other news, then it reaches a critical mass which forces politicians to act and be seen to act. The build up to critical mass may be a single explosive event (say, Dunblane in 1997) or a slow build up (say, the outbreak of foot and mouth in Surrey in 2007). This could happen anywhere and draws politicians of all colours to the area affected regardless of its political affiliation or economic importance..

    2. The "money is no object" is a standard response in crisis management. The commitment should not be taken literally. It is designed to reassure the suffering that all resources are being applied to resolving their problem and to unbind the solution providers, temporarily, from pre-established budgetary and other organisational constraints.
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    AndyJS said:

    First Tory win in Kingstanding since 1969.

    As I posted earlier , this is not a Tory win but a Gary Sambrook win . No other Conservative candidate would have come close to winning .
    Its an opposite but similar situation of Labour winning the adjacent Sutton ward.
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    28.24 turnout
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited February 2014
    13883 on the day votes, 10141 postals
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    hunchman said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick Feb 12

    Floods forced my Wythenshawe by-election report off #c4news tonight, so you can watch it here online instead http://bit.ly/1gsXzwr
    Crick muckraking at its finest!

    Muckraking?? That's a standard crick by-election piece. Give them all coverage but with in a cheeky tweak to their noses and add in plenty of local colour. Little point having a few fawning set-piece interviews with the candidates. What's the point of that?

    The Hamiltons were the most amusing by far. Their icy silence was hilarious.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014
    Turnout = 28.24%. My prediction was 29.02%.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    Turnout = 28.24%. My prediction was 29.02%.

    Good prediction!

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The electorate must be about 85,071 compared to 79,923 in 2010.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout = 28.24%. My prediction was 29.02%.

    Good prediction!

    Although I thought the electorate was about 76,000 not 85,000 so my absolute numbers for the parties won't be right.

    Until about 10 years ago I'm sure the media used to report the electorate figure a few days before the election but they don't seem to bother now.
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    AveryLP said:


    Its another case of bad visuals from Cameron.

    He wasn't interested in the Somerset farmers being flooded, he wasn't interested in the Yorkshire floods of 2007 but now he's very much concerned with apparantly unlimited money available when the stockbroker belt is affected.

    But to be even handed the Labour government didn't give a toss about the Yorkshire floods of 2007 either and Cameron preferred to go on a mud hut building photostunt when his own constituency was flooded that year.

    It will though add to the image that the political establishment is only interested in issues if London is affected.


    Your prejudice against Cameron knows no bounds. If anything, I'd say he and the government (and the media) have, at least until the last few days, rather neglected the flood victims of Berkshire, Surrey and Kent compared with those (a much smaller number) hit in the Somerset Levels.
    LOL

    YOUR prejudice for Cameron knows no bounds.

    Which as you're no fool is blinding you to what the visuals look like.

    Its only been the last few days when the focus has been on the stockbroker belt.

    And its only now that Cameron starts promising money.

    Now it doesn't matter whether those two things are connected because what it looks like is Cameron only being concerned when the stockbroker belt is affected.

    Now whether that's true or not the bottom line is that the visuals are not good for Cameron.


    ar

    It is not a North-South battle.

    1. When a natural crisis impacts many people over a long time and the media focus on the story to the exclusion of other news, then it reaches a critical mass which forces politicians to act and be seen to act. The build up to critical mass may be a single explosive event (say, Dunblane in 1997) or a slow build up (say, the outbreak of foot and mouth in Surrey in 2007). This could happen anywhere and draws politicians of all colours to the area affected regardless of its political affiliation or economic importance..

    2. The "money is no object" is a standard response in crisis management. The commitment should not be taken literally. It is designed to reassure the suffering that all resources are being applied to resolving their problem and to unbind the solution providers, temporarily, from pre-established budgetary and other organisational constraints.
    Its no good Avery, Cameron has mishandled the visuals and all the long winded explanations in the world wont alter the fact that he needs to be constantly on alert to appearing to favour 'stockbroker belt' / rich / toffs etc.

  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:


    Its another case of bad visuals from Cameron.

    He wasn't interested in the Somerset farmers being flooded, he wasn't interested in the Yorkshire floods of 2007 but now he's very much concerned with apparantly unlimited money available when the stockbroker belt is affected.

    But to be even handed the Labour government didn't give a toss about the Yorkshire floods of 2007 either and Cameron preferred to go on a mud hut building photostunt when his own constituency was flooded that year.

    It will though add to the image that the political establishment is only interested in issues if London is affected.


    Your prejudice against Cameron knows no bounds. If anything, I'd say he and the government (and the media) have, at least until the last few days, rather neglected the flood victims of Berkshire, Surrey and Kent compared with those (a much smaller number) hit in the Somerset Levels.
    LOL

    YOUR prejudice for Cameron knows no bounds.

    Which as you're no fool is blinding you to what the visuals look like.

    Its only been the last few days when the focus has been on the stockbroker belt.

    And its only now that Cameron starts promising money.

    Now it doesn't matter whether those two things are connected because what it looks like is Cameron only being concerned when the stockbroker belt is affected.

    Now whether that's true or not the bottom line is that the visuals are not good for Cameron.


    ar

    It is not a North-South battle.

    1. When a natural crisis impacts many people over a long time and the media focus on the story to the exclusion of other news, then it reaches a critical mass which forces politicians to act and be seen to act. The build up to critical mass may be a single explosive event (say, Dunblane in 1997) or a slow build up (say, the outbreak of foot and mouth in Surrey in 2007). This could happen anywhere and draws politicians of all colours to the area affected regardless of its political affiliation or economic importance..

    2. The "money is no object" is a standard response in crisis management. The commitment should not be taken literally. It is designed to reassure the suffering that all resources are being applied to resolving their problem and to unbind the solution providers, temporarily, from pre-established budgetary and other organisational constraints.
    Its no good Avery, Cameron has mishandled the visuals and all the long winded explanations in the world wont alter the fact that he needs to be constantly on alert to appearing to favour 'stockbroker belt' / rich / toffs etc.

    On another subject, have you checked your 'vanilla system' PMs recently?

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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    How is turnout calculated? (In particular how is it calculated so much earlier than the count?)
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Wow, that only makes your earlier comments about this young man even more impressive.

    fitalass said:

    Surely someone who might be on their way to Westminster as an MP in the future?

    AndyJS said:

    First Tory win in Kingstanding since 1969.

    As I posted earlier , this is not a Tory win but a Gary Sambrook win . No other Conservative candidate would have come close to winning .
    He is only in his early 20's
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014
    Grandiose said:

    How is turnout calculated? (In particular how is it calculated so much earlier than the count?)

    The electorate is apparently 85,058 (according to Manchester City Council's Twitter feed).

    They count how many votes have been cast first, before allocating them to different parties.

    So 24,024 votes gives a turnout of 28.24%.
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    Labour candidate has arrived at the count
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Grandiose said:

    How is turnout calculated? (In particular how is it calculated so much earlier than the count?)

    The first stage of the count is the "verification stage" at which the total number of votes is counted (separately for each ballot box) to make sure that the number of votes is the same as the number issued in the polling stations. In other words, it's a check against fraudulent insertion of extra votes after the polling has finished. That produces a turnout figure.

    Then, the ballot papers are mixed up and sorted according to candidate, then bundled and counted per candidate.

    The verification stage is when the agents and observers from the main parties do their tallying because that is when they can get a good idea of how voting has gone in each area, and they can compare that with their canvassing records.

    the verification stage is done separately for each ballot box, but then the law saus that the votes must be mixed up so that it is not possible to get sub-totals of the actual result for the candidates in particular areas.

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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    From Labourlist:

    01.04: Labour believe that the Lib Dems are on 4.99% of the vote at present. That means they’d lose their deposit. Bur guess what, the yellows may try to prolong the process by calling for a deposit to save their dignity deposit.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The UK is the only country I know of where a detailed breakdown of how each area voted is not allowed. Whoever changes the law on that deserves a Nobel Prize IMO. The amount of time spent by anoraks trying to work out how each area might have voted is enormous.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Farage at the count...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    No idea about this but a random tweet on the #Wythenshawe Twitter timeline.

    Jack ‏@imjackyeah 1m
    Conservatives claiming their second. #Wythenshawe
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014
    Danny565 said:

    From Labourlist:

    01.04: Labour believe that the Lib Dems are on 4.99% of the vote at present. That means they’d lose their deposit. Bur guess what, the yellows may try to prolong the process by calling for a deposit to save their dignity deposit.

    I said 4.91%. What's going on?
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited February 2014
    Farage there too now
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    Tories claiming they are 2nd in the by-election.

    My other spread bet could be winner.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Thanks both.
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    An amusing exercise in the MEN of what would have happened in 2010 if those who did not vote became the apathy party:

    Apathy 428
    Tory 168
    LD 27
    Lab 16

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/apathy-biggest-party-manchester-elections-6705898
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Tories claiming they are 2nd in the by-election.

    My other spread bet could be winner.

    I've bet very small on this one but that could be good news for my bets with Shadsy and Sam :)
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Farage apparently calling for the scrapping of by-elections...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    LDs lost their deposit at the Corby by-election by 14 votes. Looks like a similar scenario this time.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Is it on Telly anywhere or is this all Tiwtter info btw ?
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Danny565 said:

    From Labourlist:

    01.04: Labour believe that the Lib Dems are on 4.99% of the vote at present. That means they’d lose their deposit. Bur guess what, the yellows may try to prolong the process by calling for a deposit to save their dignity deposit.

    Calling for a recount do they mean?
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Mick_Pork said:

    Andrew Neil suggesting the only important thing about the by election is shether Ukip have beaten the Tories into 2nd???

    So how well the Labour vote holds up and whether the Lib Dems keep their deposit don't really matter. Neil showing his impartial credentials there.

    It's not as if it was gong to get wall to wall coverage anyway with the floods and storms completely dominating the news. I suspect a good many westminster journos would like to have their copy written right now with a quick and easy summary. Safe labour hold just isn't interesting while there is at least a little interest in second/third place and just how badly the lib dems did. That should give them enough to go on. If the result fits then the narrative of the kippers going off the boil will be pushed by tory friendly journos like Neil for obvious reasons.
    When it comes to by elections people are generally interested in who's one and what placing everyone is. However more important to the national picture is the respective vote shares and how they've changed since the election.
    I don't disagree but after you get the raw numbers in a report it's all about the narrative and who's up or down viewed through current expectations. Put bluntly they want someone to poke hard with a stick and someone for them to say 'didn't they do well'? Easy to understand, easy to package and none of that boring complexity of a nuanced result. Clear winners and clear losers.
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    Hugh said:

    Hugh said:

    Hugh said:

    I would put serious money that Richard on this forum has stayed well clear of all such scientific papers and reviews of papers on the subject, instead offering his amateur opinions on a discussion forum in the belief that his opinions are of equal value to those peer reviewed theories from those with expert knowledge in a subject.

    If you're referring to Richard Tyndall, then I would recommend that you keep your serious money in your bank account.

    I've had many strong disagreements with Richard, but on this matter he knows his stuff. Experts can and do disagree, of course, so I'm not saying he's necessarily right, but he does speak with some good knowledge.
    He's not an "expert".

    He is though very intelligent and knows where the waters can be muddied if the layman is listening, as all the best professional climate science obfuscators are.

    Do they send them to school somewhere in Russia or Dubai or something to teach them how to do this? It's impressive.
    University College Cardiff. 1983 -1986. Geology and Archaeology
    As I said, not an expert.

    "University of Nether Wallop, Art and Drama, 1991-1989. Take that!"
    Who knows who you are Hugh? Frankly who cares? Like so many other scientific illiterates on here you can claim what you like because you are anonymous. Of course the difference between us is that I post under my own name because I have nothing to hide. Everything I say on here can be checked and certainly there are a fair few on here who have a reasonable knowledge of my background.

    You on the other hand are just another internet warrior with a desperately poor grasp of climate science (even of the bits you are supposedly agreeing with)
    You're anonymous to me, chum.

    All I know is that you are a geologist (consultant - in what industry I can only guess) and a practiced climate science obfuscator.

    I invited you to dazzle us with your aerosol theories, but you declined.

    Perhaps stick to "global warming has stopped" as your myth du jour, your audience seem to be lapping that one up at the moment after so many others have been trashed.
    I may be anonymous to you Hugh but that is only because you indulge in willful ignorance as the only way to maintain your delusions. It is telling that the more apparent your lack of knowledge of climate science has become the more you have resorted to attempts to discredit those who have highlighted your shortcomings.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    AndyJS said:

    LDs lost their deposit at the Corby by-election by 14 votes. Looks like a similar scenario this time.

    If you're going to vote Tory you might as well vote for the full red meat real version ;)
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    There is no other way of putting it: UKIP need to man up when it comes to fighting elections. Labour have done nothing wrong. It is just sore losing from a party that has been handed a lesson in campaigning.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Which is obviously UKIP :D - Not that Cameroon nonsense and certainly not Limp Dem ;p
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014
    Nothing on telly, only Five Live covering it it seems. John Pienaar there.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sky News is covering it (including a very angry Farage)
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Andy

    Sky news! Farage is getting destroyed by Lucy Powell!

    #LabourGroundGame
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    They are on sky now. A bit of Farage and Lucy Powell bitch fight
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Not Farage's finest hour.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News now.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Neil

    I liked the part when he said "yes I am sure there are lots of local Labour Councillors who work hard here all year round."
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looks like the LDs are going to keep us up for an extra hour for the sake of their £500 deposit.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    The Lib Dems sound pathetic and desperate - demanding a recount to count their 1200 votes - sweet Jesus.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @IOS

    I liked the bit where he said he'd been on benders that lasted longer than this campaign.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Fair play to George Osborne giving the speech today in Edinburgh.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Neil

    Yeah that was a good line. He is factually wrong though. Labour often waits a long time before we call an election.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    To be fair I thought Lucy Powell played the gruff northern misery perfectly

    Lucy Powell:'we work all year round; u can't just fly in+have a pint'.
    Farage: 'I've been on benders that lasted longer than this campaign
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited February 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems sound pathetic and desperate - demanding a recount to count their 1200 votes - sweet Jesus.

    It wasn't the LDs who set the 5% rule for saving a deposit...
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @AndyJS @Pulpstar

    If you offer to cover their deposit between you they might drop the demand for a recount and let us have the result!
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited February 2014
    It looks like we have two very prime candidates for getting the poke with a stick tomorrow. Step forward Farage and the lib dems.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Neil said:

    @AndyJS @Pulpstar

    If you offer to cover their deposit between you they might drop the demand for a recount and let us have the result!

    I backed them with 50 whole English pence for second place. I'm quite prepared to write it off now.
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    isam said:

    To be fair I thought Lucy Powell played the gruff northern misery perfectly

    Lucy Powell:'we work all year round; u can't just fly in+have a pint'.
    Farage: 'I've been on benders that lasted longer than this campaign

    If you had to work in a Labour constituency all year round I expect you'd be as miserable and ill-tempered as Lucy Powell was as well
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @IOS

    He wasnt factually wrong, he had a point of sorts but of course the campaign started before it became official so 3 days is overstating his case. Perhaps a minimum length of campaign / maximum time to leave a seat open could be legislated for but actually this is a nothing issue that he's using to avoid talking about the result.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    edited February 2014
    Make of this what you will... If ukip only just scrape second and the lib dems lose their deposit, the headlines on here will be about how bad ukip did

    And I offered 5/6 under 10.5 ld % and no one took it
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    R5L claimed that the Conservatives were 3rd.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Where did you guys hear the Tories had come 2nd? Farage seemed very confident about coming 2nd when interviewed a few minutes ago.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    But mike thinks they might be 2nd. Whatever I think there was some value in the 3-1 on 2nd, but I'm really not sure :D
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Neil,

    Yes this campaign was short. But Labour often "goes long" on by elections. The reality is it is defined by how much on a base we already have established. Just the same as the Lib Dems did in Eastleigh and the Tories would as well.

    Farage is just whining cos his party has been handed a lesson in campaigning.
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    AndyJS said:

    Looks like the LDs are going to keep us up for an extra hour for the sake of their £500 deposit.

    Unlike the Tories and UKIP the LDs, LAB and RESPECT have won by-elections in this parliament.



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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    isam said:

    Make of this what you will... If ukip only just scrape second and the lib dems lose their deposit, the headlines on here will be about how bad ukip did

    And I offered 5/6 under 10.5 ld % and no one took it

    I considered taking it but plumped for Tory overs instead. Then that poll came out.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014
    Neil said:

    @AndyJS @Pulpstar

    If you offer to cover their deposit between you they might drop the demand for a recount and let us have the result!

    Of course it's actually more of a prestige thing, strange as that may sound.

    The one thing all of their canvassers will have been hoping to do is get 5% +1 vote and if they're a handful below that they're not going to keep quiet about it.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    edited February 2014
    #LabourGroundGame has really shown tonight that - and this is not always the case - when it is deployed it can see off UKIP in its safe seats. I can't say the same for the Tories....
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    Result expected in 20 minutes
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @IOS

    You beat a party who lost their deposit here last time, dont get too carried away, it's not a landslide of Cornish proportions.

    What is it with Lib Dem donors and legal issues?
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    How long does it take to recount the Lib Dem votes?

    Five minutes at the most I guess.

    Now I know why it is the government services sector which accounts for the greatest proportion of recent falls in productivity.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    edited February 2014
    IOS said:

    #LabourGroundGame has really shown tonight that - and this is not always the case - when it is deployed it can see off UKIP in its safe seats. I can't say the same for the Tories....

    You edited!
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    Next week we have the 25th anniversary of the Richmond by-election - the last time that the Tories retained a seat while in power.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    ISAM

    Already corrected for grammar ;-)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    My current suspicion is that I've lost the 2nd place bet but the overs might come in.
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    AveryLP said:

    How long does it take to recount the Lib Dem votes?

    Five minutes at the most I guess.

    The recounts in Croydon Central in 2005 took about 75 minutes each. A recount in circumstances like this would be about 30 to 60 minutes. They do not, of course, re-count "only" the Lib Dem votes.

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    Libdems think they have saved the money
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Neil

    I am not getting carried away. But I am sure that UKIP hardly set Rotherham and South Shields alight in the 2010 election. We have gone away and worked on dealing with them. Indeed that work will still need to be done. But tonight it looks like we have developed a set of winning tactics to deal with UKIP.

    And that is the really positive thing Labour can take from tonight.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    It would not simply be a matter of counting the LibDem votes - the other piles would have to be checked too in case a few LD votes were hidden there.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited February 2014
    JohnLoony said:

    AveryLP said:

    How long does it take to recount the Lib Dem votes?

    Five minutes at the most I guess.

    The recounts in Croydon Central in 2005 took about 75 minutes each. A recount in circumstances like this would be about 30 to 60 minutes. They do not, of course, re-count "only" the Lib Dem votes.

    If I were the Returning Officer, I would offer the Lib Dems a 10% discount rather than incur the added marginal costs of keeping the count going for another hour.

    It is time the election count process was privatised, Mr. Loony.

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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Twitter
    Mark Ferguson ‏@Markfergusonuk 21m
    Farage coming across as a rather desperate sore loser on Sky News. Not the avuncular Farage the public usually see. Bitter stuff

    Sunder Katwala ‏@sundersays 21m
    Lucy Powell:'we work all year round; u can't just fly in+have a pint'. Farage: 'I've been on benders that lasted longer than this campaign'
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Next week we have the 25th anniversary of the Richmond by-election - the last time that the Tories retained a seat while in power.

    Although they were easily outpolled by the combined (and divided) Lib+SDP vote.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited February 2014
    55 Lab
    20 Ukip
    13 Tory
    5 Chortle ...or as close to damn it
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @IOS

    I'd be genuinely happy if Labour had found a way to deal with UKIP, on most main issues their views are pretty much the opposite of mine (except Europe ironically enough), but I cant see that this result is proof of your claim. It was always going to be a tough area for them, that's been stated here plenty of times since the start of the campaign. Have they really done that much worse than they would have after a different type of Labour campaign?
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    IOS said:

    Neil

    I am not getting carried away. But I am sure that UKIP hardly set Rotherham and South Shields alight in the 2010 election. We have gone away and worked on dealing with them. Indeed that work will still need to be done. But tonight it looks like we have developed a set of winning tactics to deal with UKIP.

    And that is the really positive thing Labour can take from tonight.

    Let's wait for the swings, IOS.

    If Labour can't improve their share of the vote with a grab and run by election in a rock solid Manchester seat a year and bit off a general election, then there will be no hope for Miliband in 2015.

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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Neil.

    Absolutely right that tonight in and off itself doesn't mean we can "deal with ukip" This just shows the right direction. We have to keep moving that way.

    Also I actually quite UKIP causing low level to moderate problems in safe Labour seats. Should make those safe Labour areas work that bit harder.
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    I think I have seen the SKY press revisione for the 4th time tonight...I am starting to learn it by heart...
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Again, just to say although much overlooked, the BNP vote is worth looking out for. 3.9% before, and a lot of effort this time apparently.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @IOS

    Totally o/t but have you been doing any work in our constituency at all? Any feel from the doorsteps on whether attitudes to Simon have changed significantly since the last GE or whether he might get more of a tactical Tory vote to give him a chance of holding on (you may have missed Iain Dale's prediction that he's a dead cert to win!).
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014
    In 2005 Wythenshawe came through at about 1:30am during Jack Straw's speech (about 10 secs on this clip):

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=ps6WUTwSYsM&amp
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    AveryLP said:

    IOS said:

    Neil

    I am not getting carried away. But I am sure that UKIP hardly set Rotherham and South Shields alight in the 2010 election. We have gone away and worked on dealing with them. Indeed that work will still need to be done. But tonight it looks like we have developed a set of winning tactics to deal with UKIP.

    And that is the really positive thing Labour can take from tonight.

    Let's wait for the swings, IOS.

    If Labour can't improve their share of the vote with a grab and run by election in a rock solid Manchester seat a year and bit off a general election, then there will be no hope for Miliband in 2015.

    An 11% increase is quite good, not brilliant, but will be good enough to keep the troops in good heart.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    @isam What bets have you taken on which lines out of interest ?
This discussion has been closed.