I'd be genuinely happy if Labour had found a way to deal with UKIP, on most main issues their views are pretty much the opposite of mine (except Europe ironically enough), but I cant see that this result is proof of your claim. It was always going to be a tough area for them, that's been stated here plenty of times since the start of the campaign. Have they really done that much worse than they would have after a different type of Labour campaign?
When you start off with 44% to opponents on 26 and 22, plus far-right parties already totalling 7, getting comfortably over 50% and well over double your nearest rival is pretty good. I think IOS can reasonably say that we've discovered that we can see UKIP off in the northern suburbs. Doesn't mean we've got a UKIP-beating formula that works everywhere, but the speculation that UKIP is a hideous threat to Labour heartlands is looking thin.
I am not saying we have found the elixir! I am saying that we have found the right themes and direction. We obviously need to work on and improve on them.
I am not getting carried away. But I am sure that UKIP hardly set Rotherham and South Shields alight in the 2010 election. We have gone away and worked on dealing with them. Indeed that work will still need to be done. But tonight it looks like we have developed a set of winning tactics to deal with UKIP.
And that is the really positive thing Labour can take from tonight.
Let's wait for the swings, IOS.
If Labour can't improve their share of the vote with a grab and run by election in a rock solid Manchester seat a year and bit off a general election, then there will be no hope for Miliband in 2015.
Oh please. This is a safe seat. Even in the golden years of 1994-97, Labour had some meagre increases (or in some cases, falls) in byelections in safe Labour seats.
Again, just to say although much overlooked, the BNP vote is worth looking out for. 3.9% before, and a lot of effort this time apparently.
I think the BNP will definitely go down to about 2-3%.
Well it's definitely downwards pressure. The question is at the Euros whether they'll lose or be annihilated.
Annihilated. They have no activists any more and there's no point. Dont like Bulgarians or Romanians? UKIP is the party that's been most successful at feeding ill-will towards them.
As I have stated many times, a big influence on the next election will be the ground war. This bye-election shows how Labour will plan it. Labour has legs, many Tory activists are on their last legs, that's if they make it to the general election.
Neil, deselected Southwark Cllr Catherine McDonald is running in St Helens South selection rather than Dulwich. Early favourite in St Helens is former council leader Marie Rimmer, even if she is already 66.
The Sky man says that there *might* be a recount for the Lib Dem deposit.
Therefore: EITHER he is out of the loop (or delayed) in knowing what is happening, compared with what other people or "sources" are tweeting from the count; OR other sources are being presumptuously hysterical in spinning things prematurely.
( Don't assume that the journalists at the count necessarily know what's happening. When I got home from the Southall by-election in 2007, I watched back my videotape of the BBC coverage and was astonished to see the presenter (actually in the counting hall) telling the viewers that the candidates had been lined up on stage for about 20 minutes already - in fact we were not called up onto the stage until immediately before the declaration, and the people who had been sitting on the stage earlier were nothing to do with the candidates. )
The Sky man says that there *might* be a recount for the Lib Dem deposit.
Therefore: EITHER he is out of the loop (or delayed) in knowing what is happening, compared with what other people or "sources" are tweeting from the count; OR other sources are being presumptuously hysterical in spinning things prematurely.
( Don't assume that the journalists at the count necessarily know what's happening. When I got home from the Southall by-election in 2007, I watched back my videotape of the BBC coverage and was astonished to see the presenter (actually in the counting hall) telling the viewers that the candidates had been lined up on stage for about 20 minutes already - in fact we were not called up onto the stage until immediately before the declaration, and the people who had been sitting on the stage earlier were nothing to do with the candidates. )
Surely they ought to know by now whether the LDs are around the 5% figure?
Neil, she was born in St Helens. But Rimmer is backed by the new council leader who ousted her, Maria Eagle, Woodward, Police Commissioner Jane Kennedy....Rimmer was the woman kept out from the shortlist by NEC in 2001. 2 Knowsley Cllrs and one lady from Warrington are the other declared runners so far.
I'd be genuinely happy if Labour had found a way to deal with UKIP, on most main issues their views are pretty much the opposite of mine (except Europe ironically enough), but I cant see that this result is proof of your claim. It was always going to be a tough area for them, that's been stated here plenty of times since the start of the campaign. Have they really done that much worse than they would have after a different type of Labour campaign?
When you start off with 44% to opponents on 26 and 22, plus far-right parties already totalling 7, getting comfortably over 50% and well over double your nearest rival is pretty good. I think IOS can reasonably say that we've discovered that we can see UKIP off in the northern suburbs. Doesn't mean we've got a UKIP-beating formula that works everywhere, but the speculation that UKIP is a hideous threat to Labour heartlands is looking thin.
That's not just speculation:
"Steve Fisher from Oxford University has looked at the figures, and found that in places that had local elections in 2012 and 2013 on the same boundaries – combining district wards to make county divisions – UKIP progressed equally at the expense of both Conservatives and Labour."
The Sky man says that there *might* be a recount for the Lib Dem deposit.
Therefore: EITHER he is out of the loop (or delayed) in knowing what is happening, compared with what other people or "sources" are tweeting from the count; OR other sources are being presumptuously hysterical in spinning things prematurely.
( Don't assume that the journalists at the count necessarily know what's happening. When I got home from the Southall by-election in 2007, I watched back my videotape of the BBC coverage and was astonished to see the presenter (actually in the counting hall) telling the viewers that the candidates had been lined up on stage for about 20 minutes already - in fact we were not called up onto the stage until immediately before the declaration, and the people who had been sitting on the stage earlier were nothing to do with the candidates. )
The BBC has reported that Labour are 'tipped' to win. 'Tipped' my foot. Nailed on 1/1000 betting certainty more like !
The Sky man says that there *might* be a recount for the Lib Dem deposit.
Therefore: EITHER he is out of the loop (or delayed) in knowing what is happening, compared with what other people or "sources" are tweeting from the count; OR other sources are being presumptuously hysterical in spinning things prematurely.
( Don't assume that the journalists at the count necessarily know what's happening. When I got home from the Southall by-election in 2007, I watched back my videotape of the BBC coverage and was astonished to see the presenter (actually in the counting hall) telling the viewers that the candidates had been lined up on stage for about 20 minutes already - in fact we were not called up onto the stage until immediately before the declaration, and the people who had been sitting on the stage earlier were nothing to do with the candidates. )
Surely they ought to know by now whether the LDs are around the 5% figure?
They might not have the final figures yet. It always takes a while to kerfuffle and add up the figures before declaring them. When they have the precise (provisional) figures, *then* the Lib Dems will be in a position to decide whether they want a recount or not.
If the Lib Dems do lose their deposit, then this will be the biggest decline they've suffered in any byelection to date. Previous record was a fall of 17.2% in Manchester Central.
The Sky man says that there *might* be a recount for the Lib Dem deposit.
Therefore: EITHER he is out of the loop (or delayed) in knowing what is happening, compared with what other people or "sources" are tweeting from the count; OR other sources are being presumptuously hysterical in spinning things prematurely.
( Don't assume that the journalists at the count necessarily know what's happening. When I got home from the Southall by-election in 2007, I watched back my videotape of the BBC coverage and was astonished to see the presenter (actually in the counting hall) telling the viewers that the candidates had been lined up on stage for about 20 minutes already - in fact we were not called up onto the stage until immediately before the declaration, and the people who had been sitting on the stage earlier were nothing to do with the candidates. )
Surely they ought to know by now whether the LDs are around the 5% figure?
They might not have the final figures yet. It always takes a while to kerfuffle and add up the figures before declaring them. When they have the precise (provisional) figures, *then* the Lib Dems will be in a position to decide whether they want a recount or not.
Who (If anyone) is standing for the Loonies in this seat btw ? And are you confident ?
02.13: Anyone who has ever done a big count knows the “bundle count” is close enough to the final result. Graham Jones MP has just tweeted what looks like the bundle count, so the result will be very close to this:
If the Lib Dems do lose their deposit, then this will be the biggest decline they've suffered in any byelection to date. Previous record was a fall of 17.2% in Manchester Central.
Yes, would be the worst since at least 1945, narrowly beating Man C's 2012 record...
If the Lib Dems do lose their deposit, then this will be the biggest decline they've suffered in any byelection to date. Previous record was a fall of 17.2% in Manchester Central.
Leeds North West could be a fascinating seat to watch come the General Election. It could be the one northern seat that UKIP have a smidgen of a chance in. Close 3 way contest LD-Lab-UKIP maybe.
02.13: Anyone who has ever done a big count knows the “bundle count” is close enough to the final result. Graham Jones MP has just tweeted what looks like the bundle count
Around an 11% swing to Labour. Good result for them, no denying it...
UKIP don't help themselves by bitching about postal votes. They look like losers even though they performed respectably, and make their own supporters suspicious of postal votes which will make it harder to get out their votes.
They have a point on the timing though. Can anyone defend the convention where the incumbent party gets to game the date when the by-election is held? They should make a standard - say 6 weeks after the incumbent dies, held back up to another two weeks if there's another election already planned.
The Sky man says that there *might* be a recount for the Lib Dem deposit.
Therefore: EITHER he is out of the loop (or delayed) in knowing what is happening, compared with what other people or "sources" are tweeting from the count; OR other sources are being presumptuously hysterical in spinning things prematurely.
( Don't assume that the journalists at the count necessarily know what's happening. When I got home from the Southall by-election in 2007, I watched back my videotape of the BBC coverage and was astonished to see the presenter (actually in the counting hall) telling the viewers that the candidates had been lined up on stage for about 20 minutes already - in fact we were not called up onto the stage until immediately before the declaration, and the people who had been sitting on the stage earlier were nothing to do with the candidates. )
Surely they ought to know by now whether the LDs are around the 5% figure?
They might not have the final figures yet. It always takes a while to kerfuffle and add up the figures before declaring them. When they have the precise (provisional) figures, *then* the Lib Dems will be in a position to decide whether they want a recount or not.
Who (If anyone) is standing for the Loonies in this seat btw ? And are you confident ?
JohnLoony is of course now a Conservative supporter having defected from the Monster Raving Loony Party on 1st April 2013.
02.19: ABSOLUTE DESPERATION STATIONS FROM THE LIB DEMS. They’re 20 votes short of saving a deposit. So here’s a photo of some people trying to find those 20 votes to save their utter humiliation (via @tobyperkinsmp):
02.23: Sources in the room seem to be suggesting that the Lib Dems are losing votes, not gaining them, as they desperately try to save their deposit. Farcical.
02.13: Anyone who has ever done a big count knows the “bundle count” is close enough to the final result. Graham Jones MP has just tweeted what looks like the bundle count
Around an 11% swing to Labour. Good result for them, no denying it...
02.13: Anyone who has ever done a big count knows the “bundle count” is close enough to the final result. Graham Jones MP has just tweeted what looks like the bundle count
Around an 11% swing to Labour. Good result for them, no denying it...
Does this feed into any of your models ?
The 11% swing to Labour shows them having 0% chance of a majority using the Wheel of Fortune, Caladonian Thistle Basil Brush model.
Labour with a 54% swing shows them having 0% chance of a majority using the Wheel of Fortune, Caladonian Thistle Basil Brush model.
Leeds North West could be a fascinating seat to watch come the General Election. It could be the one northern seat that UKIP have a smidgen of a chance in. Close 3 way contest LD-Lab-UKIP maybe.
Eh??? Have you got Leeds NW mixed up with somewhere else?
Leeds North West could be a fascinating seat to watch come the General Election. It could be the one northern seat that UKIP have a smidgen of a chance in. Close 3 way contest LD-Lab-UKIP maybe.
Eh??? Have you got Leeds NW mixed up with somewhere else?
No. I think the Lib Dems are in serious danger in the North and that seat could go.
The results confirms that the white working-class Labour vote is holding up better in the North West than probably anywhere else in the country.
Why did UKIP do better in South Shields? I'd say it's the east vs west phenomenon.
Wasn't there a lot of residual rancor about having David Miliband parachuted into the constituency in 2001?
Not only that but isn't Wythenshawe and Sale not exactly the typical working class constituency? Hasn't it got quite a high white collar middle class / public sector contingent?
Leeds North West could be a fascinating seat to watch come the General Election. It could be the one northern seat that UKIP have a smidgen of a chance in. Close 3 way contest LD-Lab-UKIP maybe.
Eh??? Have you got Leeds NW mixed up with somewhere else?
No. I think the Lib Dems are in serious danger in the North and that seat could go.
Yes I think Greg Mulholland will do well to hang on there; but not cos of UKIP.
Comments
Labour over 44.5 was it?
Ukip under 26.5 I think
And your Tory one at 11.5
Laid ukip at 11/2
Backed them at 12/1
Backed them 2nd place at 10/11
All tiny size
I am not saying we have found the elixir! I am saying that we have found the right themes and direction. We obviously need to work on and improve on them.
Laying odds for an election on a site full of political geeks is a tough way to earn some pocket money!
Looks like the poll was pretty accurate...
Tbh This is a good result for Labour and noone else.
Therefore: EITHER he is out of the loop (or delayed) in knowing what is happening, compared with what other people or "sources" are tweeting from the count; OR other sources are being presumptuously hysterical in spinning things prematurely.
( Don't assume that the journalists at the count necessarily know what's happening.
When I got home from the Southall by-election in 2007, I watched back my videotape of the BBC coverage and was astonished to see the presenter (actually in the counting hall) telling the viewers that the candidates had been lined up on stage for about 20 minutes already - in fact we were not called up onto the stage until immediately before the declaration, and the people who had been sitting on the stage earlier were nothing to do with the candidates. )
That'd brave of her, difficult to see the CLP going for a carpet-bagger!!!
Edit: just checked her website and she was born there, makes sense now!
2 Knowsley Cllrs and one lady from Warrington are the other declared runners so far.
Not a million miles off. And also that was with the issue of turnout. Labour are always going to fall down a bit.
"Steve Fisher from Oxford University has looked at the figures, and found that in places that had local elections in 2012 and 2013 on the same boundaries – combining district wards to make county divisions – UKIP progressed equally at the expense of both Conservatives and Labour."
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/02/mel-stride-mp-3.html
Yup that's the key point. If Ashcroft has nailed the constituency poll he has almost certainly nailed the marginal polls.
#LabourGroundGame
And are you confident
02.13: Anyone who has ever done a big count knows the “bundle count” is close enough to the final result. Graham Jones MP has just tweeted what looks like the bundle count, so the result will be very close to this:
Lab 13,200
UKIP 4300
Tory 3500
Lib Dem 1200
BNP 800
Green 700
I am confident that we will come at least 3rd.
They have a point on the timing though. Can anyone defend the convention where the incumbent party gets to game the date when the by-election is held? They should make a standard - say 6 weeks after the incumbent dies, held back up to another two weeks if there's another election already planned.
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/lib-dem-desperation-500x375.jpg
02.23: Sources in the room seem to be suggesting that the Lib Dems are losing votes, not gaining them, as they desperately try to save their deposit. Farcical.
Labour with a 54% swing shows them having 0% chance of a majority using the Wheel of Fortune, Caladonian Thistle Basil Brush model.
zzzzzzz
UKIP 4301 18.0%
Con 3479 14.5%
LD 1176 4.9%
Green 748 3.1%
BNP 708 3.0%
Looney 288 1.2%
23961
If I recorded it correctly
G'night!
UKIP 4301 18%
Con 3479 15%
LD 1176 05% (04.91%)
Green 748 03%
BNP 708 03%
MRLP 288 01%
Lab 55.36% [54.06%]
UKIP 17.94% [20.73%]
Con 14.52% [16.46%]
LD 4.91% [4.91%]
Green 3.12% [1.11%]
BNP 2.95% [2.22%]
Loony 1.20% [0.52%]
"The Liberal Democrat candidate being led away"
Brings back memories of Hutchings at Eastleigh
Why did UKIP do better in South Shields? I'd say it's the east vs west phenomenon.
"I am looking round for Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. I don't think we have any to talk to now".
Not only that but isn't Wythenshawe and Sale not exactly the typical working class constituency? Hasn't it got quite a high white collar middle class / public sector contingent?
http://www.manchester.gov.uk/info/362/elections_and_voting/4981/your_next_election