And in general, American owners are in it for their love of money, not their love of football. Mind you, too often British owners are in it for status, unwilling or unable to invest for success.
For the umpteenth time, the 2019 Get Brexit Done election was atypical. An anomaly. Boris Johnson unblocked the remainer parliament's procrastination with a one-off single issue election held on a dark December day. That he reached parts no other politician has reached is testament to the powers of his persuasion (aka lying).
There is NO guarantee that those apparent missing Boris Brexit voters have any party allegiance whatsoever, nor that they will even vote next year.
If you really want to pursue missing voters go back to the last proper General Election in this country: June 2017
Have to agree. In 2019 there were two, perhaps three, big reasons to vote Tory
Get Brexit done Stop any chance of PM Corbyn happening You liked Boris
The first two are done, and the third is gone. The Conservative remainers, the Cameroons, seem to dislike the post referendum party, so they’re not coming back - they probably have more in common with Sir Keir’s Labour. The first time Tories who voted for Boris to get Brexit done were only lending their votes, & have been duped, landed with Truss then Sunak, who they’d probably never heard of.
Heathener’s bit in bold hits the nail on the head, in my opinion - I was one of those first time Tories and wouldn’t even consider voting for them next time.
Which party then? I lot feel like you but I can't see them voting LD or Labour.
And in general, American owners are in it for their love of money, not their love of football. Mind you, too often British owners are in it for status, unwilling or unable to invest for success.
By 'invest', you mean 'spend'? It's the American model which is actually investment.
I don't wholly agree with OGH on this - it's an idea he has floated consistently for months.
Redfield & Wilton have 19% of 2019 Conservative voters saying Don't Know (allowing for likelihood to vote) and 53% of Conservative 2019 voters staying loyal. Stripping out the DKs puts the latter figure up to 65% so perhaps the pollsters are to a degree anticipating the return of the 2019 Tory voters - I believe Opinium does that as part of its methodology.
If YouGov doesn't that might explain why its Conservative ratings are 3-4% below those of other pollsters such as R&W.
R&W have 15% of the 2019 Conservative vote going to Labour - that's nearly 7% of the electorate but that doesn't wholly explain the high Labour ratings. According to R&W, Labour's 2023 vote consists of 90% of its 2019 vote, 15% of the 2019 Conservative vote, 20% of the 2019 LD vote, 15% of the 2019 Green vote and 56% of those who Didn't Vote last time (presumably mainly new voters).
Expecting 2019 Conservative voters who have gone either DK or to Reform to return en masse to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder isn't so far backed by any polling evidence. The likelihood is most will abstain - some will return but not in the numbers Sunak needs.
Standing shoulder to shoulder with you, Stodgy, on this one.
One hesitates to disagree with Our Venerable Host, but I think he may just be calling it wrong for once.
If you have a look at the detailed tables from the polls taken at the start of the year and now, there is not much change in how the 2019 voters are now voting.
We are in a holding pattern.
What is going to be the big event which changes this position?
I think Q2 2024 looks a good call for the GE. Anything later could be seen as a bit desperate.
Preceded by a voter friendly budget. Firstly an increase in the personal allowance to £15,000pa to help (nearly) everyone together with 2% reduction in employees NI to help the workers.
No PM will call an election before he or she needs to if they're going to get trounced.
It'll be November 21 (or possibly 14), called off the back of the Tory conference.
Yes, Sunak *can* go later but only marginally and only at the risk of giving Labour back the momentum, as there'll be stuff all to do in parliament and the public will hate a campaign going over Xmas (when neither side is likely to be able to turn things round anyway for lack of attention).
Catching up with the news, I see that the Manchester leg of HS2 is now looking doubtful. So there we have it. Levelling up was a total charade, and the truth that the project is all about extra capacity for Home Counties commuters is now plain to see.
I am pointing out that there are plenty of uninhabited places in the ambit of the EU. The French probably have dozens in quite unpleasant places - Kerguelen springs to mind
This is a threadbare fantasy. There is no airstrip on Kerguelen.
Do tow backs (at gunpoint) or live with the arrivals. Those are the options.
It would cost about £3 to tarmac an airstrip on Kerguelen. No one is going to complain to planning authorities
My point is larger. The EU is big enough and possessed of enough empty or unpleasant territories - near and far - that if it decided to really get serious about an Australian solution, they could do it. In purely practical terms
Whether they will ever unite around this solution is a different matter. But this crisis is only growing and drastic solutions will hove into view, soon enough
For the umpteenth time, the 2019 Get Brexit Done election was atypical. An anomaly. Boris Johnson unblocked the remainer parliament's procrastination with a one-off single issue election held on a dark December day. That he reached parts no other politician has reached is testament to the powers of his persuasion (aka lying).
There is NO guarantee that those apparent missing Boris Brexit voters have any party allegiance whatsoever, nor that they will even vote next year.
If you really want to pursue missing voters go back to the last proper General Election in this country: June 2017
Have to agree. In 2019 there were two, perhaps three, big reasons to vote Tory
Get Brexit done Stop any chance of PM Corbyn happening You liked Boris
The first two are done, and the third is gone. The Conservative remainers, the Cameroons, seem to dislike the post referendum party, so they’re not coming back - they probably have more in common with Sir Keir’s Labour. The first time Tories who voted for Boris to get Brexit done were only lending their votes, & have been duped, landed with Truss then Sunak, who they’d probably never heard of.
Heathener’s bit in bold hits the nail on the head, in my opinion - I was one of those first time Tories and wouldn’t even consider voting for them next time.
Which party then? I lot feel like you but I can't see them voting LD or Labour.
My guess is they won’t vote at all. Personally I doubt I will.
For the umpteenth time, the 2019 Get Brexit Done election was atypical. An anomaly. Boris Johnson unblocked the remainer parliament's procrastination with a one-off single issue election held on a dark December day. That he reached parts no other politician has reached is testament to the powers of his persuasion (aka lying).
There is NO guarantee that those apparent missing Boris Brexit voters have any party allegiance whatsoever, nor that they will even vote next year.
If you really want to pursue missing voters go back to the last proper General Election in this country: June 2017
Have to agree. In 2019 there were two, perhaps three, big reasons to vote Tory
Get Brexit done Stop any chance of PM Corbyn happening You liked Boris
The first two are done, and the third is gone. The Conservative remainers, the Cameroons, seem to dislike the post referendum party, so they’re not coming back - they probably have more in common with Sir Keir’s Labour. The first time Tories who voted for Boris to get Brexit done were only lending their votes, & have been duped, landed with Truss then Sunak, who they’d probably never heard of.
Heathener’s bit in bold hits the nail on the head, in my opinion - I was one of those first time Tories and wouldn’t even consider voting for them next time.
I find it hard to swallow that some people actually liked Boris. Nevertheless you're quite right.
I like Boris - friendly, self-deprecating, funny. Doesn't mean I want him in Parliament! Much as I feel about Leon, really.
And in general, American owners are in it for their love of money, not their love of football. Mind you, too often British owners are in it for status, unwilling or unable to invest for success.
Everton’s problem is they spent too much money (on utter dross).
The Moshiri era coincided with the Klopp era at Liverpool, Everton had a bigger net spend than Liverpool in that era.
Good morning all - I think this is a neat summation of what I am thinking.
In 2019 I witnessed a phenomenon. Low voting Labour areas where suddenly there was a huge turnout. Records smashed according to staff at these polling stations. Then I watched these boxes tipped and tallied them - a Tory landslide.
Never mind a majority of 80, it could have been a majority of 100 had the ultra right not run a spoiler campaign in seats like Stockton North to let Labour cling on.
My hypothesis is that most of these non voters who turned Tory in 2019 won't vote. In key seats this will be a significant number of the DKs. If the Tory vote sinks heavily and the Labour vote rises a little, it will be a Labour gain.
Elsewhere we know a lot of Tories are both sick of and sickened by this government. As we saw in 1997, several million Tory voters are likely to sit on their hands. The commentary on polling posted above said that most DKs would break Tory "if forced". But they won't be forced. Starmer is not Jezbollah, there is no panic issue to force a reluctant Tory vote.
So we could probably go back to late 96 and look at the polls and the DKs and say the same about the Tory deficit then. Don't worry. Tory DKs will vote Tory. No, they won't.
@Heathener is right. 2019 was sui generis. The 2019 Tory tsunami were habitual non-voters who came out of the woodwork to put their X on Boris and Brexit. The key, of course, is they were voting for their lives and prospects to improve. In short, they were voting for levelling up, which Boris championed but did not deliver, to which Hunt is indifferent and which Rishi actively resents.
These voters will not turn out for Rishi, nor for Labour if Starmer can't find them a single ray of hope in his warmed-over Blairism. They will not vote and their lives will stagnate or decline.
For the umpteenth time, the 2019 Get Brexit Done election was atypical. An anomaly. Boris Johnson unblocked the remainer parliament's procrastination with a one-off single issue election held on a dark December day. That he reached parts no other politician has reached is testament to the powers of his persuasion (aka lying).
There is NO guarantee that those apparent missing Boris Brexit voters have any party allegiance whatsoever, nor that they will even vote next year.
If you really want to pursue missing voters go back to the last proper General Election in this country: June 2017
Have to agree. In 2019 there were two, perhaps three, big reasons to vote Tory
Get Brexit done Stop any chance of PM Corbyn happening You liked Boris
The first two are done, and the third is gone. The Conservative remainers, the Cameroons, seem to dislike the post referendum party, so they’re not coming back - they probably have more in common with Sir Keir’s Labour. The first time Tories who voted for Boris to get Brexit done were only lending their votes, & have been duped, landed with Truss then Sunak, who they’d probably never heard of.
Heathener’s bit in bold hits the nail on the head, in my opinion - I was one of those first time Tories and wouldn’t even consider voting for them next time.
Which party then? I lot feel like you but I can't see them voting LD or Labour.
Stay at home, probably. Like many did in 1997.
(Remember, Major got more votes in '92 than Blair did in '97.) Talking of which, the Mail's front page from 1/v/97 is relevant here;
And in general, American owners are in it for their love of money, not their love of football. Mind you, too often British owners are in it for status, unwilling or unable to invest for success.
Everton’s problem is they spent too much money (on utter dross).
The Moshiri era coincided with the Klopp era at Liverpool, Everton had a bigger net spend than Liverpool in that era.
Do you mean on transfers, wages, or both? Suspect you just mean transfers.
Good morning all - I think this is a neat summation of what I am thinking.
In 2019 I witnessed a phenomenon. Low voting Labour areas where suddenly there was a huge turnout. Records smashed according to staff at these polling stations. Then I watched these boxes tipped and tallied them - a Tory landslide.
Never mind a majority of 80, it could have been a majority of 100 had the ultra right not run a spoiler campaign in seats like Stockton North to let Labour cling on.
My hypothesis is that most of these non voters who turned Tory in 2019 won't vote. In key seats this will be a significant number of the DKs. If the Tory vote sinks heavily and the Labour vote rises a little, it will be a Labour gain.
Elsewhere we know a lot of Tories are both sick of and sickened by this government. As we saw in 1997, several million Tory voters are likely to sit on their hands. The commentary on polling posted above said that most DKs would break Tory "if forced". But they won't be forced. Starmer is not Jezbollah, there is no panic issue to force a reluctant Tory vote.
So we could probably go back to late 96 and look at the polls and the DKs and say the same about the Tory deficit then. Don't worry. Tory DKs will vote Tory. No, they won't.
@Heathener is right. 2019 was sui generis. The 2019 Tory tsunami were habitual non-voters who came out of the woodwork to put their X on Boris and Brexit. The key, of course, is they were voting for their lives and prospects to improve. In short, they were voting for levelling up, which Boris championed but did not deliver, to which Hunt is indifferent and which Rishi actively resents.
These voters will not turn out for Rishi, nor for Labour if Starmer can't find them a single ray of hope in his warmed-over Blairism. They will not vote and their lives will stagnate or decline.
If the bookies have the turnout under/over line anywhere near 2019 GE levels, then the under seems a decent bet
I am pointing out that there are plenty of uninhabited places in the ambit of the EU. The French probably have dozens in quite unpleasant places - Kerguelen springs to mind
This is a threadbare fantasy. There is no airstrip on Kerguelen.
Do tow backs (at gunpoint) or live with the arrivals. Those are the options.
If those are the choices you have to live with the arrivals.
We cannot, in all conscience, risk fellow human beings lives by trying to tow them back.
This is why I don’t get the hate to the RNLI for helping these people at sea. What are they supposed to do. Let them drown ?
The third option is to ct off demand for undocumented labour.
1) Increase the fine per employee to £200,000 2) Make directors personally liable - their assets are at risk if their company employs undocumented employees. 3) Any undocumented employee who reports their employment gets half the fine. On conviction. 4) Any undocumented employee who reports their employment get indefinite leave to remain. upon conviction of their employer.
Within 10 minutes of that being passed, every ambulance chasing lawyer in the country will be on it, like @TSE and step mothers employed in the port based social recreation industry.
Oh, and to make it especially palatable to Labour voters, do the same for people deliberately paying below minimum wage.
And in general, American owners are in it for their love of money, not their love of football. Mind you, too often British owners are in it for status, unwilling or unable to invest for success.
Everton’s problem is they spent too much money (on utter dross).
The Moshiri era coincided with the Klopp era at Liverpool, Everton had a bigger net spend than Liverpool in that era.
Do you mean on transfers, wages, or both? Suspect you just mean transfers.
Transfers mainly but look at the aggregated losses. At one point Everton has paid out more in sacking managers than Liverpool had paid Klopp during his first contract.
In his first 2 and a bit seasons Moshiri sacked Martinez, Koeman, and Big Sam.
James Rodriquez was the highest paid player on Merseyside during his Everton stint.
Good morning all - I think this is a neat summation of what I am thinking.
In 2019 I witnessed a phenomenon. Low voting Labour areas where suddenly there was a huge turnout. Records smashed according to staff at these polling stations. Then I watched these boxes tipped and tallied them - a Tory landslide.
Never mind a majority of 80, it could have been a majority of 100 had the ultra right not run a spoiler campaign in seats like Stockton North to let Labour cling on.
My hypothesis is that most of these non voters who turned Tory in 2019 won't vote. In key seats this will be a significant number of the DKs. If the Tory vote sinks heavily and the Labour vote rises a little, it will be a Labour gain.
Elsewhere we know a lot of Tories are both sick of and sickened by this government. As we saw in 1997, several million Tory voters are likely to sit on their hands. The commentary on polling posted above said that most DKs would break Tory "if forced". But they won't be forced. Starmer is not Jezbollah, there is no panic issue to force a reluctant Tory vote.
So we could probably go back to late 96 and look at the polls and the DKs and say the same about the Tory deficit then. Don't worry. Tory DKs will vote Tory. No, they won't.
@Heathener is right. 2019 was sui generis. The 2019 Tory tsunami were habitual non-voters who came out of the woodwork to put their X on Boris and Brexit. The key, of course, is they were voting for their lives and prospects to improve. In short, they were voting for levelling up, which Boris championed but did not deliver, to which Hunt is indifferent and which Rishi actively resents.
These voters will not turn out for Rishi, nor for Labour if Starmer can't find them a single ray of hope in his warmed-over Blairism. They will not vote and their lives will stagnate or decline.
If the bookies have the turnout under/over line anywhere near 2019 GE levels, then the under seems a decent bet
Depends on the odds, surely? I agree it's likelier to be lower, but you shouldn't back it at any old price. There's still a chance it'll be higher because... events.
1. A lot of 2019 Tories voted for them for the first time and have either been badly let down or the purpose of the tactical vote - get Brexit done, keep Corbyn out - is expired. They won't be going back to what was never a natural home in the first place.
2. If Labour is sufficiently unthreatening - and that appears to be Starmer's central strategy - then many of the 2019 Tories are likely to just sit it out. That's exactly what happened in 1997, when the Labour vote only went up by 2m but the Tory one plummeted by 5m. With the Tory and Sunak approval ratings so low, there's every chance that Don't Know will translate to Won't Vote.
Re 2, it's why I think Starmer's move to talk to the EU on a deal on refugees seems an unforced error. I'm not sure whether he has done it as a trial balloon, because he thinks he has room on the issue given the poll ratings or that he feels as though he needs to appease the left wing who might be at risk of voting Green.
Good morning all - I think this is a neat summation of what I am thinking.
In 2019 I witnessed a phenomenon. Low voting Labour areas where suddenly there was a huge turnout. Records smashed according to staff at these polling stations. Then I watched these boxes tipped and tallied them - a Tory landslide.
Never mind a majority of 80, it could have been a majority of 100 had the ultra right not run a spoiler campaign in seats like Stockton North to let Labour cling on.
My hypothesis is that most of these non voters who turned Tory in 2019 won't vote. In key seats this will be a significant number of the DKs. If the Tory vote sinks heavily and the Labour vote rises a little, it will be a Labour gain.
Elsewhere we know a lot of Tories are both sick of and sickened by this government. As we saw in 1997, several million Tory voters are likely to sit on their hands. The commentary on polling posted above said that most DKs would break Tory "if forced". But they won't be forced. Starmer is not Jezbollah, there is no panic issue to force a reluctant Tory vote.
So we could probably go back to late 96 and look at the polls and the DKs and say the same about the Tory deficit then. Don't worry. Tory DKs will vote Tory. No, they won't.
@Heathener is right. 2019 was sui generis. The 2019 Tory tsunami were habitual non-voters who came out of the woodwork to put their X on Boris and Brexit. The key, of course, is they were voting for their lives and prospects to improve. In short, they were voting for levelling up, which Boris championed but did not deliver, to which Hunt is indifferent and which Rishi actively resents.
These voters will not turn out for Rishi, nor for Labour if Starmer can't find them a single ray of hope in his warmed-over Blairism. They will not vote and their lives will stagnate or decline.
If the bookies have the turnout under/over line anywhere near 2019 GE levels, then the under seems a decent bet
Depends on the odds, surely? I agree it's likelier to be lower, but you shouldn't back it at any old price. There's still a chance it'll be higher because... events.
The odds on over unders are 5/6 or 10/11 usually, it’s the level that changes rather than the odds
I was just about to post this. I was travelling though this area the other day. Oddly enough it's one of the wealthy areas included in the Tamworth constituency where a by-election is taking place on 19th October, so maybe it'll become one of the issues at the election.
Just got a BBC news push notification about dogs killing someone.
I'm sure Leon will take all the credit, but some of us have been highlighting this for months (years?). The Afghan dogs evacuation was indicative of the huge blind spot we have for our canine friends.
The actual ban will take longer, whatever the government's decision in principle. The difficulty with banning a breed that isn't a defined breed, is the lack of definition - to state the obvious. The govt will (should) want to make sure they get that definition right so as not to accidentally slaughter half the canine population, or none of them.
I am pointing out that there are plenty of uninhabited places in the ambit of the EU. The French probably have dozens in quite unpleasant places - Kerguelen springs to mind
This is a threadbare fantasy. There is no airstrip on Kerguelen.
Do tow backs (at gunpoint) or live with the arrivals. Those are the options.
It would cost about £3 to tarmac an airstrip on Kerguelen. No one is going to complain to planning authorities
It cost £250m (in the 80s!) and took four years to build Maggie's Pleasant Airfield in the Falklands which is the centre of the universe compared to Ker-fucking-guelen. There is also no feasible diversion for Kerguelen and it'll be blacked out for weather 100+ days/year.
Anywhere without existing infrastructure is a non-starter.
The actual ban will take longer, whatever the government's decision in principle. The difficulty with banning a breed that isn't a defined breed, is the lack of definition - to state the obvious. The govt will (should) want to make sure they get that definition right so as not to accidentally slaughter half the canine population, or none of them.
The alternative is you accidentally slaughter half a primary school.
For the umpteenth time, the 2019 Get Brexit Done election was atypical. An anomaly. Boris Johnson unblocked the remainer parliament's procrastination with a one-off single issue election held on a dark December day. That he reached parts no other politician has reached is testament to the powers of his persuasion (aka lying).
There is NO guarantee that those apparent missing Boris Brexit voters have any party allegiance whatsoever, nor that they will even vote next year.
If you really want to pursue missing voters go back to the last proper General Election in this country: June 2017
Have to agree. In 2019 there were two, perhaps three, big reasons to vote Tory
Get Brexit done Stop any chance of PM Corbyn happening You liked Boris
The first two are done, and the third is gone. The Conservative remainers, the Cameroons, seem to dislike the post referendum party, so they’re not coming back - they probably have more in common with Sir Keir’s Labour. The first time Tories who voted for Boris to get Brexit done were only lending their votes, & have been duped, landed with Truss then Sunak, who they’d probably never heard of.
Heathener’s bit in bold hits the nail on the head, in my opinion - I was one of those first time Tories and wouldn’t even consider voting for them next time.
I am a 2019 Tory voting, Boris-loathing, Jezza-loathing, remainer ex-Tory.
And there must be plenty like me.
Would I consider voting Tory again? Well after quite a long time voting for that party the short answer is yes. The what I would call toxic wing of the Conservative Party was given unprecedented ascendency under Boris but that has been dampened down now, the odd Braverman aside. We have a boring technocrat in charge and I can live with that.
Lab, meanwhile? There are still too many people in the party who hate me and that is quite off-putting.
So I don't think it is out of the question that many 2019 now ex-Tories will return to the fold. It's not out of the question that I will.
1. A lot of 2019 Tories voted for them for the first time and have either been badly let down or the purpose of the tactical vote - get Brexit done, keep Corbyn out - is expired. They won't be going back to what was never a natural home in the first place.
2. If Labour is sufficiently unthreatening - and that appears to be Starmer's central strategy - then many of the 2019 Tories are likely to just sit it out. That's exactly what happened in 1997, when the Labour vote only went up by 2m but the Tory one plummeted by 5m. With the Tory and Sunak approval ratings so low, there's every chance that Don't Know will translate to Won't Vote.
Re 2, it's why I think Starmer's move to talk to the EU on a deal on refugees seems an unforced error. I'm not sure whether he has done it as a trial balloon, because he thinks he has room on the issue given the poll ratings or that he feels as though he needs to appease the left wing who might be at risk of voting Green.
I think it's also that Brexit isn't the issue it was in 2019. Not only have quite a lot of opinions have changed but the salience for Brexit for those remaining Leavers isn't what it was. It's easy to jump at shadows in the mind on Brexit but a pretty minor deal it won't shift many votes and as you say, proposing a sensible, humane deal will also shift some *to* Labour.
Good morning all - I think this is a neat summation of what I am thinking.
In 2019 I witnessed a phenomenon. Low voting Labour areas where suddenly there was a huge turnout. Records smashed according to staff at these polling stations. Then I watched these boxes tipped and tallied them - a Tory landslide.
Never mind a majority of 80, it could have been a majority of 100 had the ultra right not run a spoiler campaign in seats like Stockton North to let Labour cling on.
My hypothesis is that most of these non voters who turned Tory in 2019 won't vote. In key seats this will be a significant number of the DKs. If the Tory vote sinks heavily and the Labour vote rises a little, it will be a Labour gain.
Elsewhere we know a lot of Tories are both sick of and sickened by this government. As we saw in 1997, several million Tory voters are likely to sit on their hands. The commentary on polling posted above said that most DKs would break Tory "if forced". But they won't be forced. Starmer is not Jezbollah, there is no panic issue to force a reluctant Tory vote.
So we could probably go back to late 96 and look at the polls and the DKs and say the same about the Tory deficit then. Don't worry. Tory DKs will vote Tory. No, they won't.
@Heathener is right. 2019 was sui generis. The 2019 Tory tsunami were habitual non-voters who came out of the woodwork to put their X on Boris and Brexit. The key, of course, is they were voting for their lives and prospects to improve. In short, they were voting for levelling up, which Boris championed but did not deliver, to which Hunt is indifferent and which Rishi actively resents.
These voters will not turn out for Rishi, nor for Labour if Starmer can't find them a single ray of hope in his warmed-over Blairism. They will not vote and their lives will stagnate or decline.
If the bookies have the turnout under/over line anywhere near 2019 GE levels, then the under seems a decent bet
Depends on the odds, surely? I agree it's likelier to be lower, but you shouldn't back it at any old price. There's still a chance it'll be higher because... events.
The odds on over unders are 5/6 or 10/11 usually, it’s the level that changes rather than the odds
Yes, ok, then what I said but "depending on how low that line goes". There comes a point where the line goes so low you want back overs. I think we agree in any case.
I saw what I assume is one of these monstrosities in our neighbourhood the other, a terrifying creature that the guy who was walking it looked barely able to control. I really hope we are now at "peak dog". It seems to me that there are more and more dogs around at the moment and more of the owners seem to be clueless and unable to control or discipline them affectively. There are a lot more discussions on dog related issues on our local WhatsApp and Facebook groups. People are starting to have had enough, I think. They should also ban cockapoos while they're at it. The name is so irritating.
The actual ban will take longer, whatever the government's decision in principle. The difficulty with banning a breed that isn't a defined breed, is the lack of definition - to state the obvious. The govt will (should) want to make sure they get that definition right so as not to accidentally slaughter half the canine population, or none of them.
The alternative is you accidentally slaughter half a primary school.
Exactly
And this happened Monday
No one cares any more. Just go round and shoot all these dogs. Tough shit if you were stupid/evil enough to buy one
Is it fair to say that these dogs cou;l fairly be described to be partly a weapon?
Yes. There is literally zero reason to have one of these dogs unless you want to scare or attack others. Not something that you can say of a chihuahua.
Point probably made already - many of these 2019 'tory' DKs will be Boris/Brexit types who are more likely to stay at home next time than vote tory again.
Just got a BBC news push notification about dogs killing someone.
I'm sure Leon will take all the credit, but some of us have been highlighting this for months (years?). The Afghan dogs evacuation was indicative of the huge blind spot we have for our canine friends.
I’m not taking any credit?!?!
I’m just angry that the government is letting this drag on when 90% of the country wants a ban NOW
For the umpteenth time, the 2019 Get Brexit Done election was atypical. An anomaly. Boris Johnson unblocked the remainer parliament's procrastination with a one-off single issue election held on a dark December day. That he reached parts no other politician has reached is testament to the powers of his persuasion (aka lying).
There is NO guarantee that those apparent missing Boris Brexit voters have any party allegiance whatsoever, nor that they will even vote next year.
If you really want to pursue missing voters go back to the last proper General Election in this country: June 2017
Have to agree. In 2019 there were two, perhaps three, big reasons to vote Tory
Get Brexit done Stop any chance of PM Corbyn happening You liked Boris
The first two are done, and the third is gone. The Conservative remainers, the Cameroons, seem to dislike the post referendum party, so they’re not coming back - they probably have more in common with Sir Keir’s Labour. The first time Tories who voted for Boris to get Brexit done were only lending their votes, & have been duped, landed with Truss then Sunak, who they’d probably never heard of.
Heathener’s bit in bold hits the nail on the head, in my opinion - I was one of those first time Tories and wouldn’t even consider voting for them next time.
Which party then? I lot feel like you but I can't see them voting LD or Labour.
My guess is they won’t vote at all. Personally I doubt I will.
Reform UK?
I was speaking to a lifelong CP voter in a Con stronghold (Bridgen's patch, as was) - massively disillusioned and unhappy with the country. Biggest issue? - Immigration.
I asked him if he'd still vote Tory - he said maybe but if so reluctantly. He would never in a million years vote LD or Labour.
There are millions like him. The ratio to which they: stay at home/vote CP/ vote another party will determine the GE. Obvious point I guess.
I don't wholly agree with OGH on this - it's an idea he has floated consistently for months.
Redfield & Wilton have 19% of 2019 Conservative voters saying Don't Know (allowing for likelihood to vote) and 53% of Conservative 2019 voters staying loyal. Stripping out the DKs puts the latter figure up to 65% so perhaps the pollsters are to a degree anticipating the return of the 2019 Tory voters - I believe Opinium does that as part of its methodology.
If YouGov doesn't that might explain why its Conservative ratings are 3-4% below those of other pollsters such as R&W.
R&W have 15% of the 2019 Conservative vote going to Labour - that's nearly 7% of the electorate but that doesn't wholly explain the high Labour ratings. According to R&W, Labour's 2023 vote consists of 90% of its 2019 vote, 15% of the 2019 Conservative vote, 20% of the 2019 LD vote, 15% of the 2019 Green vote and 56% of those who Didn't Vote last time (presumably mainly new voters).
Expecting 2019 Conservative voters who have gone either DK or to Reform to return en masse to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder isn't so far backed by any polling evidence. The likelihood is most will abstain - some will return but not in the numbers Sunak needs.
Standing shoulder to shoulder with you, Stodgy, on this one.
One hesitates to disagree with Our Venerable Host, but I think he may just be calling it wrong for once.
If you have a look at the detailed tables from the polls taken at the start of the year and now, there is not much change in how the 2019 voters are now voting.
We are in a holding pattern.
What is going to be the big event which changes this position?
Improvement in the economy?
I agree. We do seem to be in a holding pattern.
The EMA including the latest from Techne and YouGov gives Labour 461 seats and a 272 majority. LibDems are in third place with 40 seats. This is on the new boundaries and with tactical voting.
For the umpteenth time, the 2019 Get Brexit Done election was atypical. An anomaly. Boris Johnson unblocked the remainer parliament's procrastination with a one-off single issue election held on a dark December day. That he reached parts no other politician has reached is testament to the powers of his persuasion (aka lying).
There is NO guarantee that those apparent missing Boris Brexit voters have any party allegiance whatsoever, nor that they will even vote next year.
If you really want to pursue missing voters go back to the last proper General Election in this country: June 2017
Have to agree. In 2019 there were two, perhaps three, big reasons to vote Tory
Get Brexit done Stop any chance of PM Corbyn happening You liked Boris
The first two are done, and the third is gone. The Conservative remainers, the Cameroons, seem to dislike the post referendum party, so they’re not coming back - they probably have more in common with Sir Keir’s Labour. The first time Tories who voted for Boris to get Brexit done were only lending their votes, & have been duped, landed with Truss then Sunak, who they’d probably never heard of.
Heathener’s bit in bold hits the nail on the head, in my opinion - I was one of those first time Tories and wouldn’t even consider voting for them next time.
I am a 2019 Tory voting, Boris-loathing, Jezza-loathing, remainer ex-Tory.
And there must be plenty like me.
Would I consider voting Tory again? Well after quite a long time voting for that party the short answer is yes. The what I would call toxic wing of the Conservative Party was given unprecedented ascendency under Boris but that has been dampened down now, the odd Braverman aside. We have a boring technocrat in charge and I can live with that.
Lab, meanwhile? There are still too many people in the party who hate me and that is quite off-putting.
So I don't think it is out of the question that many 2019 now ex-Tories will return to the fold. It's not out of the question that I will.
Do you think the toxic wing of the Conservative Party is more damped, less damped, or about the same as the toxic wing of the Labour Party?
Personally I think they are both still present, but I can't really believe that you think Labour has done less than the Conservatives in sidelining them.
Enforced returns by year from the ONS. The Tories want to portray the problem as being out there, but it's their own incompetence at governance that's a large part of what's going on.
But we didn’t legally Brexit until 2020. So that mild decline from 2016 can’t be blamed on Brexit. More likely it was a byproduct of a drop in EU citizens coming here, psychologically deterred by Brexit
Overall it looks more like a failure of governance across the board - on that I agree with you. This govt has been crap on migration; almost as bad as the one before it
That doesn't really track... the main driver in the change seems to be the non-EU enforced returns. No idea what the reasons are but I can't see how it would be due to deterred EU citizens, since it's the wrong category and the wrong mechanism.
One of the main reasons is the massive slowdown in processing applications and thus huge increase in the waiting list, paralleling the massive waits in the NHS, the courts system and everything else the Government is in charge of.
The waiting list of voters desperate to kick them out seems to be growing proportionately to the other lists too....
Add this one to the list.
Mrs PtP has just booked her driving test. Earliest she could get is 18th Jan 2024, in Norfolk.
We live in Gloucestershire. London and the Home Counties would have been acceptable for her, had they not been booked solid.
You need to go to a ticket tout not the DVLA these days!
I'm not generally avers to giving money to touts, but not for an effing driving test.
Wimbledon may be the least attractive held seat for a Tory hopeful to go for anywhere in the country. I think the notional results with boundary changes have it as Lib Dem, the area is trending away for the Tories, and I'd not be at all surprised if they came third - or at least they should probably be third favourites at the bookies.
- Armed response on a wild goose chase (have they actually caught it yet?) - Air ambulance costs - Hours in trauma getting emergency medical care - PTSD for family/emergency services - Primary school locked down for hours
Point probably made already - many of these 2019 'tory' DKs will be Boris/Brexit types who are more likely to stay at home next time than vote tory again.
You hope. In actual fact many won't want to waste their vote or vote by default by not voting.
Point probably made already - many of these 2019 'tory' DKs will be Boris/Brexit types who are more likely to stay at home next time than vote tory again.
You hope. In actual fact many won't want to waste their vote or vote by default by not voting.
But weren't a chunk of 2019s first-time voters anyway? Anyone know the stats on this?
There seem to be a lot of dog fundamentalists out there, who think there's no such thing as a bad dog, only bad owners, which we know isn't true.
I think you have to ask why would someone, given the array of breeds out there, opt for a Bully?
Some people prefer bigger dogs.
I’d rather have a Husky/Malamute/Lab over an ankle biter like a Jack Russell.
Yes but you’re sensible enough not to get a huge muscled dog which is bred entirely to intimidate and kill, and known for its psychotic personality, are you?
There seem to be a lot of dog fundamentalists out there, who think there's no such thing as a bad dog, only bad owners, which we know isn't true.
I think you have to ask why would someone, given the array of breeds out there, opt for a Bully?
Some people prefer bigger dogs.
I’d rather have a Husky/Malamute/Lab over an ankle biter like a Jack Russell.
Yes but you’re sensible enough not to get a huge muscled dog which is bred entirely to intimidate and kill, and known for its psychotic personality, are you?
I prefer cats.
My ex had a Husky x Malamute and he was great.
He was neurotic but great. He used to freak me out because he could open doors.
For the umpteenth time, the 2019 Get Brexit Done election was atypical. An anomaly. Boris Johnson unblocked the remainer parliament's procrastination with a one-off single issue election held on a dark December day. That he reached parts no other politician has reached is testament to the powers of his persuasion (aka lying).
There is NO guarantee that those apparent missing Boris Brexit voters have any party allegiance whatsoever, nor that they will even vote next year.
If you really want to pursue missing voters go back to the last proper General Election in this country: June 2017
Have to agree. In 2019 there were two, perhaps three, big reasons to vote Tory
Get Brexit done Stop any chance of PM Corbyn happening You liked Boris
The first two are done, and the third is gone. The Conservative remainers, the Cameroons, seem to dislike the post referendum party, so they’re not coming back - they probably have more in common with Sir Keir’s Labour. The first time Tories who voted for Boris to get Brexit done were only lending their votes, & have been duped, landed with Truss then Sunak, who they’d probably never heard of.
Heathener’s bit in bold hits the nail on the head, in my opinion - I was one of those first time Tories and wouldn’t even consider voting for them next time.
I am a 2019 Tory voting, Boris-loathing, Jezza-loathing, remainer ex-Tory.
And there must be plenty like me.
Would I consider voting Tory again? Well after quite a long time voting for that party the short answer is yes. The what I would call toxic wing of the Conservative Party was given unprecedented ascendency under Boris but that has been dampened down now, the odd Braverman aside. We have a boring technocrat in charge and I can live with that.
Lab, meanwhile? There are still too many people in the party who hate me and that is quite off-putting.
So I don't think it is out of the question that many 2019 now ex-Tories will return to the fold. It's not out of the question that I will.
Do you think the toxic wing of the Conservative Party is more damped, less damped, or about the same as the toxic wing of the Labour Party?
Personally I think they are both still present, but I can't really believe that you think Labour has done less than the Conservatives in sidelining them.
I fully appreciate my perspective comes from a particular place but my impression is that the Cons loonies have an insane vision of the UK, its place in the world, and of the world ex-UK. That used to be confined to Bill Cash standing up and spouting bollocks every month or two and his like came to the ascendency under Boris but I believe have been put back in their box by Rishi.
My impression of Lab is that there are still many who see fundamental problems not just with the flavour of free market capitalism eg Blairite or Cameroon, but with free market capitalism itself.
The old trope goes that the right think the left is stupid, while the left think the right is evil. There is enough in that for me not to want to trust the left in this case. No matter how anodyne their leader might be atm. Just look at @bjo. He is dying to get back to and reclaim a "proper" Labour Party.
Surely the public won’t fall for Sunak blaming doctors and consultants for the waiting lists .
They were going up well before the strikes and the Tories own it .
In terms of the boats I think Starmer has made an error , allowing Sunak and his right wing media arse lickers an open goal to make up any figures they like to terrify the public but the NHS will remain the issue that will be more important to voters .
Interesting news re Stephen Hammond , that looks like a nailed on Lib Dem gain at the GE.
There seem to be a lot of dog fundamentalists out there, who think there's no such thing as a bad dog, only bad owners, which we know isn't true.
Bad owners with dogs that should never be pets. Sure, ban/destroy the dogs-but that just lets bad owners move onto the next breed of "devil dog" that pops up. I don't know what the answer is, but it's not the dog's fault. If that makes me a fundamentalist, then I'll wear that badge.
For the umpteenth time, the 2019 Get Brexit Done election was atypical. An anomaly. Boris Johnson unblocked the remainer parliament's procrastination with a one-off single issue election held on a dark December day. That he reached parts no other politician has reached is testament to the powers of his persuasion (aka lying).
There is NO guarantee that those apparent missing Boris Brexit voters have any party allegiance whatsoever, nor that they will even vote next year.
If you really want to pursue missing voters go back to the last proper General Election in this country: June 2017
Have to agree. In 2019 there were two, perhaps three, big reasons to vote Tory
Get Brexit done Stop any chance of PM Corbyn happening You liked Boris
The first two are done, and the third is gone. The Conservative remainers, the Cameroons, seem to dislike the post referendum party, so they’re not coming back - they probably have more in common with Sir Keir’s Labour. The first time Tories who voted for Boris to get Brexit done were only lending their votes, & have been duped, landed with Truss then Sunak, who they’d probably never heard of.
Heathener’s bit in bold hits the nail on the head, in my opinion - I was one of those first time Tories and wouldn’t even consider voting for them next time.
I am a 2019 Tory voting, Boris-loathing, Jezza-loathing, remainer ex-Tory.
And there must be plenty like me.
Would I consider voting Tory again? Well after quite a long time voting for that party the short answer is yes. The what I would call toxic wing of the Conservative Party was given unprecedented ascendency under Boris but that has been dampened down now, the odd Braverman aside. We have a boring technocrat in charge and I can live with that.
Lab, meanwhile? There are still too many people in the party who hate me and that is quite off-putting.
So I don't think it is out of the question that many 2019 now ex-Tories will return to the fold. It's not out of the question that I will.
Do you think the toxic wing of the Conservative Party is more damped, less damped, or about the same as the toxic wing of the Labour Party?
Personally I think they are both still present, but I can't really believe that you think Labour has done less than the Conservatives in sidelining them.
I fully appreciate my perspective comes from a particular place but my impression is that the Cons loonies have an insane vision of the UK, its place in the world, and of the world ex-UK. That used to be confined to Bill Cash standing up and spouting bollocks every month or two and his like came to the ascendency under Boris but I believe have been put back in their box by Rishi.
My impression of Lab is that there are still many who see fundamental problems not just with the flavour of free market capitalism eg Blairite or Cameroon, but with free market capitalism itself.
The old trope goes that the right think the left is stupid, while the left think the right is evil. There is enough in that for me not to want to trust the left in this case. No matter how anodyne their leader might be atm. Just look at @bjo. He is dying to get back to and reclaim a "proper" Labour Party.
The loony left can rant on as much as they want. No-one is going to displace a leader who's won Labour their first election in a quarter-century. Not that Labour ousts leaders anyway.
For the umpteenth time, the 2019 Get Brexit Done election was atypical. An anomaly. Boris Johnson unblocked the remainer parliament's procrastination with a one-off single issue election held on a dark December day. That he reached parts no other politician has reached is testament to the powers of his persuasion (aka lying).
There is NO guarantee that those apparent missing Boris Brexit voters have any party allegiance whatsoever, nor that they will even vote next year.
If you really want to pursue missing voters go back to the last proper General Election in this country: June 2017
Have to agree. In 2019 there were two, perhaps three, big reasons to vote Tory
Get Brexit done Stop any chance of PM Corbyn happening You liked Boris
The first two are done, and the third is gone. The Conservative remainers, the Cameroons, seem to dislike the post referendum party, so they’re not coming back - they probably have more in common with Sir Keir’s Labour. The first time Tories who voted for Boris to get Brexit done were only lending their votes, & have been duped, landed with Truss then Sunak, who they’d probably never heard of.
Heathener’s bit in bold hits the nail on the head, in my opinion - I was one of those first time Tories and wouldn’t even consider voting for them next time.
I am a 2019 Tory voting, Boris-loathing, Jezza-loathing, remainer ex-Tory.
And there must be plenty like me.
Would I consider voting Tory again? Well after quite a long time voting for that party the short answer is yes. The what I would call toxic wing of the Conservative Party was given unprecedented ascendency under Boris but that has been dampened down now, the odd Braverman aside. We have a boring technocrat in charge and I can live with that.
Lab, meanwhile? There are still too many people in the party who hate me and that is quite off-putting.
So I don't think it is out of the question that many 2019 now ex-Tories will return to the fold. It's not out of the question that I will.
Do you think the toxic wing of the Conservative Party is more damped, less damped, or about the same as the toxic wing of the Labour Party?
Personally I think they are both still present, but I can't really believe that you think Labour has done less than the Conservatives in sidelining them.
I fully appreciate my perspective comes from a particular place but my impression is that the Cons loonies have an insane vision of the UK, its place in the world, and of the world ex-UK. That used to be confined to Bill Cash standing up and spouting bollocks every month or two and his like came to the ascendency under Boris but I believe have been put back in their box by Rishi.
My impression of Lab is that there are still many who see fundamental problems not just with the flavour of free market capitalism eg Blairite or Cameroon, but with free market capitalism itself.
The old trope goes that the right think the left is stupid, while the left think the right is evil. There is enough in that for me not to want to trust the left in this case. No matter how anodyne their leader might be atm. Just look at @bjo. He is dying to get back to and reclaim a "proper" Labour Party.
Yes, interestingly enough I also had BJO in mind but for the opposite reasons. He's joined the Greens because he's lost hope that the Labour Party can be the vehicle for the policies he wants.
Whatever, I respect your perspective and I don't have any motivation to persuade you otherwise. I won't be voting for either party, but from my point of view Labour have done more.
Even after all this, it might still be politically savvy to oppose a ban. People love their dogs.
The "ban" one has been running for three weeks. The "unban" one had six months to garner signatures. I suspect the "ban" one will greatly exceed the latter.
I am pointing out that there are plenty of uninhabited places in the ambit of the EU. The French probably have dozens in quite unpleasant places - Kerguelen springs to mind
This is a threadbare fantasy. There is no airstrip on Kerguelen.
Do tow backs (at gunpoint) or live with the arrivals. Those are the options.
If those are the choices you have to live with the arrivals.
We cannot, in all conscience, risk fellow human beings lives by trying to tow them back.
This is why I don’t get the hate to the RNLI for helping these people at sea. What are they supposed to do. Let them drown ?
The third option is to ct off demand for undocumented labour.
1) Increase the fine per employee to £200,000 2) Make directors personally liable - their assets are at risk if their company employs undocumented employees. 3) Any undocumented employee who reports their employment gets half the fine. On conviction. 4) Any undocumented employee who reports their employment get indefinite leave to remain. upon conviction of their employer.
Within 10 minutes of that being passed, every ambulance chasing lawyer in the country will be on it, like @TSE and step mothers employed in the port based social recreation industry.
Oh, and to make it especially palatable to Labour voters, do the same for people deliberately paying below minimum wage.
That will help the Albanian drug gangs recruit couriers but what is the upside?
There seem to be a lot of dog fundamentalists out there, who think there's no such thing as a bad dog, only bad owners, which we know isn't true.
Bad owners with dogs that should never be pets. Sure, ban/destroy the dogs-but that just lets bad owners move onto the next breed of "devil dog" that pops up. I don't know what the answer is, but it's not the dog's fault. If that makes me a fundamentalist, then I'll wear that badge.
Morning everyone! Bit late I know.
I’d say go back to licensing (and muzzling) but that would require an efficient government and police, so clearly a non-starter.
Dog control could well be an issue at the next election.
Even after all this, it might still be politically savvy to oppose a ban. People love their dogs.
The "ban" one has been running for three weeks. The "unban" one had six months to garner signatures. I suspect the "ban" one will greatly exceed the latter.
I'm sure. I just think it's mad 100,000 people signed the other one.
Even after all this, it might still be politically savvy to oppose a ban. People love their dogs.
The "ban" one has been running for three weeks. The "unban" one had six months to garner signatures. I suspect the "ban" one will greatly exceed the latter.
I'd imagine there's exponential growth in signatures for fundamentally popular petitions - each signatory tells N people, some fraction of whom sign.
Even after all this, it might still be politically savvy to oppose a ban. People love their dogs.
It would be political madness to oppose a ban. Just because someone loves their red setter or their schnauzer, doesn't mean they aren't f***ing petrified of the yob next door's XL Bully. Indeed, the stories that aren't reported as widely but doubtless happen are the red setters having their heads ripped off.
Perhaps there's a solution here. Require RSPCA insurance for all dogs. Uninsured dogs will be impounded/eliminated.
From GB News, 18/8.2023:
The RSPCA has been accused of “rank hypocrisy” after it was revealed that its insurance policy prohibits the American Bully XL breed, the so-called “killer” dog that it is campaigning against being banned. … [But] its Pet Insurance policy limitations state that it will not pay for any claims for dozens of breeds, including the American Bulldog, American Indian Dog, American Pit Bull Terrier, American Rottweiler, American Staffordshire Terrier, Irish Staffordshire Blue Bull Terrier, Irish Staffordshire Bull Terrier, Pit Bull Terrier.
Its policy states that no claims will be paid for dogs that are “mixed or crossbred with any of these breeds.”
For the umpteenth time, the 2019 Get Brexit Done election was atypical. An anomaly. Boris Johnson unblocked the remainer parliament's procrastination with a one-off single issue election held on a dark December day. That he reached parts no other politician has reached is testament to the powers of his persuasion (aka lying).
There is NO guarantee that those apparent missing Boris Brexit voters have any party allegiance whatsoever, nor that they will even vote next year.
If you really want to pursue missing voters go back to the last proper General Election in this country: June 2017
Have to agree. In 2019 there were two, perhaps three, big reasons to vote Tory
Get Brexit done Stop any chance of PM Corbyn happening You liked Boris
The first two are done, and the third is gone. The Conservative remainers, the Cameroons, seem to dislike the post referendum party, so they’re not coming back - they probably have more in common with Sir Keir’s Labour. The first time Tories who voted for Boris to get Brexit done were only lending their votes, & have been duped, landed with Truss then Sunak, who they’d probably never heard of.
Heathener’s bit in bold hits the nail on the head, in my opinion - I was one of those first time Tories and wouldn’t even consider voting for them next time.
I am a 2019 Tory voting, Boris-loathing, Jezza-loathing, remainer ex-Tory.
And there must be plenty like me.
Would I consider voting Tory again? Well after quite a long time voting for that party the short answer is yes. The what I would call toxic wing of the Conservative Party was given unprecedented ascendency under Boris but that has been dampened down now, the odd Braverman aside. We have a boring technocrat in charge and I can live with that.
Lab, meanwhile? There are still too many people in the party who hate me and that is quite off-putting.
So I don't think it is out of the question that many 2019 now ex-Tories will return to the fold. It's not out of the question that I will.
Do you think the toxic wing of the Conservative Party is more damped, less damped, or about the same as the toxic wing of the Labour Party?
Personally I think they are both still present, but I can't really believe that you think Labour has done less than the Conservatives in sidelining them.
I fully appreciate my perspective comes from a particular place but my impression is that the Cons loonies have an insane vision of the UK, its place in the world, and of the world ex-UK. That used to be confined to Bill Cash standing up and spouting bollocks every month or two and his like came to the ascendency under Boris but I believe have been put back in their box by Rishi.
My impression of Lab is that there are still many who see fundamental problems not just with the flavour of free market capitalism eg Blairite or Cameroon, but with free market capitalism itself.
The old trope goes that the right think the left is stupid, while the left think the right is evil. There is enough in that for me not to want to trust the left in this case. No matter how anodyne their leader might be atm. Just look at @bjo. He is dying to get back to and reclaim a "proper" Labour Party.
The loony left can rant on as much as they want. No-one is going to displace a leader who's won Labour their first election in a quarter-century. Not that Labour ousts leaders anyway.
That's as maybe. The loony left really, really doesn't like me and there is a non-trivial number of such people who would be in the governing party. I don't fancy that too much.
Even after all this, it might still be politically savvy to oppose a ban. People love their dogs.
The polling BEFORE the Birmingham attack (let alone the attacks this week) was 57:17 in favour of a ban. And 90:10 in favour of restrictions on ownership
Massively popular
And those numbers will have gotten worse for the RSPCA since then
Is the government really gonna wait until a bully XL gets inside a school playground and kills a bunch of kids? Coz that is where we are headed
Even after all this, it might still be politically savvy to oppose a ban. People love their dogs.
The "ban" one has been running for three weeks. The "unban" one had six months to garner signatures. I suspect the "ban" one will greatly exceed the latter.
I'd imagine there's exponential growth in signatures for fundamentally popular petitions - each signatory tells N people, some fraction of whom sign.
PB pedantry: it'll probably be logistic growth, not exponential
Even after all this, it might still be politically savvy to oppose a ban. People love their dogs.
The "ban" one has been running for three weeks. The "unban" one had six months to garner signatures. I suspect the "ban" one will greatly exceed the latter.
I'd imagine there's exponential growth in signatures for fundamentally popular petitions - each signatory tells N people, some fraction of whom sign.
PB pedantry: it'll probably be logistic growth, not exponential
Heh. Would certainly be the case if not time limited, but with the six month cut off? Maybe - do people still bother once the 100k threshold has been reached?
You're probably right though, in many cases at least. Petitions become so well known that a majority of those interested sign up before the deadline and then it tails off.
There's probably a PhD in studying the growth curves and characteristics that influence those.
Enforced returns by year from the ONS. The Tories want to portray the problem as being out there, but it's their own incompetence at governance that's a large part of what's going on.
But we didn’t legally Brexit until 2020. So that mild decline from 2016 can’t be blamed on Brexit. More likely it was a byproduct of a drop in EU citizens coming here, psychologically deterred by Brexit
Overall it looks more like a failure of governance across the board - on that I agree with you. This govt has been crap on migration; almost as bad as the one before it
That doesn't really track... the main driver in the change seems to be the non-EU enforced returns. No idea what the reasons are but I can't see how it would be due to deterred EU citizens, since it's the wrong category and the wrong mechanism.
One of the main reasons is the massive slowdown in processing applications and thus huge increase in the waiting list, paralleling the massive waits in the NHS, the courts system and everything else the Government is in charge of.
The waiting list of voters desperate to kick them out seems to be growing proportionately to the other lists too....
Add this one to the list.
Mrs PtP has just booked her driving test. Earliest she could get is 18th Jan 2024, in Norfolk.
We live in Gloucestershire. London and the Home Counties would have been acceptable for her, had they not been booked solid.
You need to go to a ticket tout not the DVLA these days!
I'm not generally avers to giving money to touts, but not for an effing driving test.
The fix is ridiculously simple. DVLA just need to stop allowing a name change after booking. Get the name wrong and you lose your slot, then they become worthless to the touts.
But as it is, wait 5 months for a test somewhere that is going to cost £50 in petrol to get to and you don't know any of the roads, or get it locally next month for a couple of hundred to a tout, my principles are being thrown out without much thought......
Enforced returns by year from the ONS. The Tories want to portray the problem as being out there, but it's their own incompetence at governance that's a large part of what's going on.
But we didn’t legally Brexit until 2020. So that mild decline from 2016 can’t be blamed on Brexit. More likely it was a byproduct of a drop in EU citizens coming here, psychologically deterred by Brexit
Overall it looks more like a failure of governance across the board - on that I agree with you. This govt has been crap on migration; almost as bad as the one before it
That doesn't really track... the main driver in the change seems to be the non-EU enforced returns. No idea what the reasons are but I can't see how it would be due to deterred EU citizens, since it's the wrong category and the wrong mechanism.
One of the main reasons is the massive slowdown in processing applications and thus huge increase in the waiting list, paralleling the massive waits in the NHS, the courts system and everything else the Government is in charge of.
The waiting list of voters desperate to kick them out seems to be growing proportionately to the other lists too....
Add this one to the list.
Mrs PtP has just booked her driving test. Earliest she could get is 18th Jan 2024, in Norfolk.
We live in Gloucestershire. London and the Home Counties would have been acceptable for her, had they not been booked solid.
You need to go to a ticket tout not the DVLA these days!
I'm not generally avers to giving money to touts, but not for an effing driving test.
The fix is ridiculously simple. DVLA just need to stop allowing a name change after booking. Get the name wrong and you lose your slot, then they become worthless to the touts.
But as it is, wait 5 months for a test somewhere that is going to cost £50 in petrol to get to and you don't know any of the roads, or get it locally next month for a couple of hundred to a tout, my principles are being thrown out without much thought......
Why would they let you change the name on a booking, for anything except a typo? Surely they want your name and licence number when you book, and if you can’t make the date you can reschedule?
Can we send all the owners to Rwanda or the Kerguelen islands?
Put a boat load of migrants in a pen. Chuck in a few dogs of unknown constitution. Any migrants that are killed are posthumously granted asylum. The killer dogs are then released in areas of high housing pressure.
Speed limits up to 60mph in urban areas (70 outside schools), NHS care only provided to over 50s, air pollution pumped into inner cities. In about 20 years time, there will be no Labour voters left. CCHQ - take note.
Enforced returns by year from the ONS. The Tories want to portray the problem as being out there, but it's their own incompetence at governance that's a large part of what's going on.
But we didn’t legally Brexit until 2020. So that mild decline from 2016 can’t be blamed on Brexit. More likely it was a byproduct of a drop in EU citizens coming here, psychologically deterred by Brexit
Overall it looks more like a failure of governance across the board - on that I agree with you. This govt has been crap on migration; almost as bad as the one before it
That doesn't really track... the main driver in the change seems to be the non-EU enforced returns. No idea what the reasons are but I can't see how it would be due to deterred EU citizens, since it's the wrong category and the wrong mechanism.
One of the main reasons is the massive slowdown in processing applications and thus huge increase in the waiting list, paralleling the massive waits in the NHS, the courts system and everything else the Government is in charge of.
The waiting list of voters desperate to kick them out seems to be growing proportionately to the other lists too....
Add this one to the list.
Mrs PtP has just booked her driving test. Earliest she could get is 18th Jan 2024, in Norfolk.
We live in Gloucestershire. London and the Home Counties would have been acceptable for her, had they not been booked solid.
Much the same all over the country. DVSA don't have nearly enough capacity and have been telling driving instructors not to present pupils for test unless they are confident of a pass.
This is why motorcycle schools are very busy, lots of people opting for bikes or scooters to get around because they can't get a driving test in any reasonable time frame. But even bike test slots are getting more scarce now; proposals to simplify the rather complex test system and free up some resources were made by industry groups in 2016 but still haven't been implemented, which is a good indicator of how disinterested DVSA and the DoT are.
Even after all this, it might still be politically savvy to oppose a ban. People love their dogs.
The polling BEFORE the Birmingham attack (let alone the attacks this week) was 57:17 in favour of a ban. And 90:10 in favour of restrictions on ownership
Massively popular
And those numbers will have gotten worse for the RSPCA since then
Is the government really gonna wait until a bully XL gets inside a school playground and kills a bunch of kids? Coz that is where we are headed
Nearly exactly that happened this morning by the looks of things. Horrific.
It”s emblematic of this government’s uselessness that they can’t even get this right.
Enforced returns by year from the ONS. The Tories want to portray the problem as being out there, but it's their own incompetence at governance that's a large part of what's going on.
But we didn’t legally Brexit until 2020. So that mild decline from 2016 can’t be blamed on Brexit. More likely it was a byproduct of a drop in EU citizens coming here, psychologically deterred by Brexit
Overall it looks more like a failure of governance across the board - on that I agree with you. This govt has been crap on migration; almost as bad as the one before it
That doesn't really track... the main driver in the change seems to be the non-EU enforced returns. No idea what the reasons are but I can't see how it would be due to deterred EU citizens, since it's the wrong category and the wrong mechanism.
One of the main reasons is the massive slowdown in processing applications and thus huge increase in the waiting list, paralleling the massive waits in the NHS, the courts system and everything else the Government is in charge of.
The waiting list of voters desperate to kick them out seems to be growing proportionately to the other lists too....
Add this one to the list.
Mrs PtP has just booked her driving test. Earliest she could get is 18th Jan 2024, in Norfolk.
We live in Gloucestershire. London and the Home Counties would have been acceptable for her, had they not been booked solid.
You need to go to a ticket tout not the DVLA these days!
I'm not generally avers to giving money to touts, but not for an effing driving test.
The fix is ridiculously simple. DVLA just need to stop allowing a name change after booking. Get the name wrong and you lose your slot, then they become worthless to the touts.
But as it is, wait 5 months for a test somewhere that is going to cost £50 in petrol to get to and you don't know any of the roads, or get it locally next month for a couple of hundred to a tout, my principles are being thrown out without much thought......
Why would they let you change the name on a booking, for anything except a typo? Surely they want your name and licence number when you book, and if you can’t make the date you can reschedule?
That would eliminate the touts yes, but its not the system.
Can we send all the owners to Rwanda or the Kerguelen islands?
Put a boat load of migrants in a pen. Chuck in a few dogs of unknown constitution. Any migrants that are killed are posthumously granted asylum. The killer dogs are then released in areas of high housing pressure.
Speed limits up to 60mph in urban areas (70 outside schools), NHS care only provided to over 50s, air pollution pumped into inner cities. In about 20 years time, there will be no Labour voters left. CCHQ - take note.
Bad owners are a big problem but the problem is those attracted to the Bully XL breed are more likely to be bad owners and the dog already is more predisposed to aggression .
The breed is a ticking time bomb made worse by who generally own them . I have zero sympathy for the owners and an outright ban is needed now .
On Scotland it does seem to be taking an eternity for Police Scotland to conclude their investigation into the SNP and in the event little comes from it, then a SNP recovery may be on the cards
On Starmer and Cooper 'terrorist' small boats policy it has gone down like a lead balloon across the political spectrum with the Guardian leading the outcry and allowing the conservatives to accuse labour of an open door immigration policy
And as far as I can tell last nights locals were hardly stellar for labour
And we have a year left to GE 24
I still expect a labour majority but the size of it I am very uncertain
It is fact that labour are so crap and anti Scottish that is causing them issues G. SNP are not popular but most will grit their teeth and vote for them as the only real Scottish party.
On Scotland it does seem to be taking an eternity for Police Scotland to conclude their investigation into the SNP and in the event little comes from it, then a SNP recovery may be on the cards
On Starmer and Cooper 'terrorist' small boats policy it has gone down like a lead balloon across the political spectrum with the Guardian leading the outcry and allowing the conservatives to accuse labour of an open door immigration policy
And as far as I can tell last nights locals were hardly stellar for labour
And we have a year left to GE 24
I still expect a labour majority but the size of it I am very uncertain
It is fact that labour are so crap and anti Scottish that is causing them issues G. SNP are not popular but most will grit their teeth and vote for them as the only real Scottish party.
Don't be so soft. Labour aren't anti-Scottish, they just disagree with you about independence.
"Rumour has it the Sunday Times is working on a big story this weekend — biggest of the year, supposedly. Due to drop tomorrow at 3pm. Leave cancelled, all hands to the pump, security tightened, etc. May be a sex scandal of some kind, possibly involving a politician. Anyone know?"
I mean, it's Toby Young so it could be bullshit. But I know PB loves an unsubstantiated rumour.
There seem to be a lot of dog fundamentalists out there, who think there's no such thing as a bad dog, only bad owners, which we know isn't true.
I think you have to ask why would someone, given the array of breeds out there, opt for a Bully?
Because they are a scrote/dealer/psycho/inadequate/all of the above.
I wonder if there is any correlation between the promotion/defence of these aggressive dogs and membership of criminal gangs.... If there is, then the police have a ready-made list of people inclined towards drug-trafficking etc.
If only we had a police force that really worked, instead of all these Tory Police and Crime Commissioners....
Even after all this, it might still be politically savvy to oppose a ban. People love their dogs.
Amazing variance in numbers signed per constituency for the pro-bully pooch tendency. Will be interesting to see if this holds out, but with the range from 2 to 40 and above at present, I'd be surprised if it doesn't.
"there are more McDonalds in France, per head, than anywhere in Europe"
Is this right?
It's in the Spectator, so sensible not to trust the claim.
I found: https://www.atlasbig.com/en-gb/countries-by-mcdonalds-restaurants That says the article is half right. France has the highest number but only if you ignore some tiny countries, but it's only just above several other places. That list goes (for Europe):
1. Gibraltar 496.278 restaurants per million population 2. Andorra 63.886 3. Monaco 52.219 for comparison: US 40.807 4. Liechtenstein 26.239 5. France 22.289 6. Austria 22.063 7. United Kingdom 21.517 8. Switzerland 21.076 9. Cyprus 21.058 10. Ireland 19.971
"there are more McDonalds in France, per head, than anywhere in Europe"
Is this right?
It's in the Spectator, so sensible not to trust the claim.
I found: https://www.atlasbig.com/en-gb/countries-by-mcdonalds-restaurants That says the article is half right. France has the highest number but only if you ignore some tiny countries, but it's only just above several other places. That list goes (for Europe):
1. Gibraltar 496.278 restaurants per million population 2. Andorra 63.886 3. Monaco 52.219 for comparison: US 40.807 4. Liechtenstein 26.239 5. France 22.289 6. Austria 22.063 7. United Kingdom 21.517 8. Switzerland 21.076 9. Cyprus 21.058 10. Ireland 19.971
And that UK figure is so close to the French one that they might as well be identical.
Comments
We are in a holding pattern.
What is going to be the big event which changes this position?
Improvement in the economy?
It'll be November 21 (or possibly 14), called off the back of the Tory conference.
Yes, Sunak *can* go later but only marginally and only at the risk of giving Labour back the momentum, as there'll be stuff all to do in parliament and the public will hate a campaign going over Xmas (when neither side is likely to be able to turn things round anyway for lack of attention).
Catching up with the news, I see that the Manchester leg of HS2 is now looking doubtful. So there we have it. Levelling up was a total charade, and the truth that the project is all about extra capacity for Home Counties commuters is now plain to see.
My point is larger. The EU is big enough and possessed of enough empty or unpleasant territories - near and far - that if it decided to really get serious about an Australian solution, they could do it. In purely practical terms
Whether they will ever unite around this solution is a different matter. But this crisis is only growing and drastic solutions will hove into view, soon enough
The Moshiri era coincided with the Klopp era at Liverpool, Everton had a bigger net spend than Liverpool in that era.
These voters will not turn out for Rishi, nor for Labour if Starmer can't find them a single ray of hope in his warmed-over Blairism. They will not vote and their lives will stagnate or decline.
(Remember, Major got more votes in '92 than Blair did in '97.) Talking of which, the Mail's front page from 1/v/97 is relevant here;
1) Increase the fine per employee to £200,000
2) Make directors personally liable - their assets are at risk if their company employs undocumented employees.
3) Any undocumented employee who reports their employment gets half the fine. On conviction.
4) Any undocumented employee who reports their employment get indefinite leave to remain. upon conviction of their employer.
Within 10 minutes of that being passed, every ambulance chasing lawyer in the country will be on it, like @TSE and step mothers employed in the port based social recreation industry.
Oh, and to make it especially palatable to Labour voters, do the same for people deliberately paying below minimum wage.
@tomorrowsmps
·
12h
🔵 WIMBLEDON: Conservative MP Stephen Hammond has announced that he will stand down at the next election:
In his first 2 and a bit seasons Moshiri sacked Martinez, Koeman, and Big Sam.
James Rodriquez was the highest paid player on Merseyside during his Everton stint.
“Man attacked by two dogs near school in Stonnall dies”
https://x.com/bbcnews/status/1702614429127303626?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Another Tory seat seeking a new Conservative candidate
https://conservativehome.com/2023/09/15/our-list-of-conservative-mps-standing-down-at-the-next-election-timpson-the-latest-to-announce/
“We're in Stonnall this morning after a man was left seriously hurt when he was attacked by two dogs.
Residents say the whole village - including a primary school - was effectively put in to lockdown while it was all going on.
Listen - bbc.in/3ED5ZEG”
Schools on lockdown because of DOGS
Enough!!
https://x.com/bbcwm/status/1702596004187345322?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
I'm sure Leon will take all the credit, but some of us have been highlighting this for months (years?). The Afghan dogs evacuation was indicative of the huge blind spot we have for our canine friends.
Anywhere without existing infrastructure is a non-starter.
And there must be plenty like me.
Would I consider voting Tory again? Well after quite a long time voting for that party the short answer is yes. The what I would call toxic wing of the Conservative Party was given unprecedented ascendency under Boris but that has been dampened down now, the odd Braverman aside. We have a boring technocrat in charge and I can live with that.
Lab, meanwhile? There are still too many people in the party who hate me and that is quite off-putting.
So I don't think it is out of the question that many 2019 now ex-Tories will return to the fold. It's not out of the question that I will.
I really hope we are now at "peak dog". It seems to me that there are more and more dogs around at the moment and more of the owners seem to be clueless and unable to control or discipline them affectively. There are a lot more discussions on dog related issues on our local WhatsApp and Facebook groups. People are starting to have had enough, I think.
They should also ban cockapoos while they're at it. The name is so irritating.
And this happened Monday
No one cares any more. Just go round and shoot all these dogs. Tough shit if you were stupid/evil enough to buy one
I’m just angry that the government is letting this drag on when 90% of the country wants a ban NOW
I was speaking to a lifelong CP voter in a Con stronghold (Bridgen's patch, as was) - massively disillusioned and unhappy with the country. Biggest issue? - Immigration.
I asked him if he'd still vote Tory - he said maybe but if so reluctantly. He would never in a million years vote LD or Labour.
There are millions like him. The ratio to which they: stay at home/vote CP/ vote another party will determine the GE. Obvious point I guess.
The EMA including the latest from Techne and YouGov gives Labour 461 seats and a 272 majority. LibDems are in third place with 40 seats. This is on the new boundaries and with tactical voting.
Personally I think they are both still present, but I can't really believe that you think Labour has done less than the Conservatives in sidelining them.
The NRA and RSPCA singing from the same hymn sheet.
- Armed response on a wild goose chase (have they actually caught it yet?)
- Air ambulance costs
- Hours in trauma getting emergency medical care
- PTSD for family/emergency services
- Primary school locked down for hours
I’d rather have a Husky/Malamute/Lab over an ankle biter like a Jack Russell.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bouvier_des_Flandres
My ex had a Husky x Malamute and he was great.
He was neurotic but great. He used to freak me out because he could open doors.
Repeal ban on pitbulls etc petition: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/624876
Even after all this, it might still be politically savvy to oppose a ban. People love their dogs.
My impression of Lab is that there are still many who see fundamental problems not just with the flavour of free market capitalism eg Blairite or Cameroon, but with free market capitalism itself.
The old trope goes that the right think the left is stupid, while the left think the right is evil. There is enough in that for me not to want to trust the left in this case. No matter how anodyne their leader might be atm. Just look at @bjo. He is dying to get back to and reclaim a "proper" Labour Party.
They were going up well before the strikes and the Tories own it .
In terms of the boats I think Starmer has made an error , allowing Sunak and his right wing media arse lickers an open goal to make up any figures they like to terrify the public but the NHS will remain the issue that will be more important to voters .
Interesting news re Stephen Hammond , that looks like a nailed on Lib Dem gain at the GE.
Whatever, I respect your perspective and I don't have any motivation to persuade you otherwise. I won't be voting for either party, but from my point of view Labour have done more.
I’d say go back to licensing (and muzzling) but that would require an efficient government and police, so clearly a non-starter.
Dog control could well be an issue at the next election.
A useful guide for constituencies not to bring your kids up in.
Uninsured dogs will be impounded/eliminated.
From GB News, 18/8.2023:
The RSPCA has been accused of “rank hypocrisy” after it was revealed that its insurance policy prohibits the American Bully XL breed, the so-called “killer” dog that it is campaigning against being banned.
…
[But] its Pet Insurance policy limitations state that it will not pay for any claims for dozens of breeds, including the American Bulldog, American Indian Dog, American Pit Bull Terrier, American Rottweiler, American Staffordshire Terrier, Irish Staffordshire Blue Bull Terrier, Irish Staffordshire Bull Terrier, Pit Bull Terrier.
Its policy states that no claims will be paid for dogs that are “mixed or crossbred with any of these breeds.”
Massively popular
And those numbers will have gotten worse for the RSPCA since then
Is the government really gonna wait until a bully XL gets inside a school playground and kills a bunch of kids? Coz that is where we are headed
You're probably right though, in many cases at least. Petitions become so well known that a majority of those interested sign up before the deadline and then it tails off.
There's probably a PhD in studying the growth curves and characteristics that influence those.
A collapsing roof could seriously injure or even kill a dog.
But as it is, wait 5 months for a test somewhere that is going to cost £50 in petrol to get to and you don't know any of the roads, or get it locally next month for a couple of hundred to a tout, my principles are being thrown out without much thought......
I believe that the XL bully is a kind, beautiful natured breed that loves children and people in general, and are very loyal and loving pets.
WTF.
Speed limits up to 60mph in urban areas (70 outside schools), NHS care only provided to over 50s, air pollution pumped into inner cities. In about 20 years time, there will be no Labour voters left. CCHQ - take note.
Not sure what that means in practice - imprisonment? deportation? fixing? I don't think I'd support execution for a first offence.
This is why motorcycle schools are very busy, lots of people opting for bikes or scooters to get around because they can't get a driving test in any reasonable time frame. But even bike test slots are getting more scarce now; proposals to simplify the rather complex test system and free up some resources were made by industry groups in 2016 but still haven't been implemented, which is a good indicator of how disinterested DVSA and the DoT are.
It”s emblematic of this government’s uselessness that they can’t even get this right.
Joined up thinking.
The breed is a ticking time bomb made worse by who generally own them . I have zero sympathy for the owners and an outright ban is needed now .
I mean, it's Toby Young so it could be bullshit. But I know PB loves an unsubstantiated rumour.
If only we had a police force that really worked, instead of all these Tory Police and Crime Commissioners....
I found: https://www.atlasbig.com/en-gb/countries-by-mcdonalds-restaurants That says the article is half right. France has the highest number but only if you ignore some tiny countries, but it's only just above several other places. That list goes (for Europe):
1. Gibraltar 496.278 restaurants per million population
2. Andorra 63.886
3. Monaco 52.219
for comparison: US 40.807
4. Liechtenstein 26.239
5. France 22.289
6. Austria 22.063
7. United Kingdom 21.517
8. Switzerland 21.076
9. Cyprus 21.058
10. Ireland 19.971