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Could Biden Win The Presidency But Lose The Popular Vote? – politicalbetting.com
Could Biden Win The Presidency But Lose The Popular Vote? – politicalbetting.com
Since 1988, the Republicans have won the Presidential popular vote only once, in 2004. Popular opinion is that the recent Republican Electoral College advantage is somehow immutable. It is not. Indeed, 2024 could see Trump win the popular vote, and Biden the Presidency.
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But fair point about the change in electoral efficiency (noted also by the NYT). Has much to do with the GOP's cultural jihad.
Why Biden Is Losing Support Among Voters Of Color | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Among the most politically tuned-in, last week saw the kind of hand-wringing and accusations of bias surrounding the polls that you’d usually expect from the final two months of a campaign, not the final year and two months of a campaign.
The focus was largely on general election polls: Whether a Wall Street Journal poll showing former President Donald Trump and President Biden tied is to be trusted. What to make of a CNN poll showing Nikki Haley as the only Republican candidate with a lead over Biden that falls outside the margin of error and how to understand data from the New York Times suggesting that Biden is losing support among voters of color.
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Carlos Odio of Equis Research and Terrance Woodbury of HIT Strategies to parse through which recent data is actually worth paying attention to and which is sound and fury.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FiP8uRZ8shw
Much of media sees its job as making this chart balance out.
So one thing on the Biden side must match multiple things on the Trump side.
Otherwise, more negative facts about Trump might result in him coming across more negatively in coverage, which would be "unfair" and "biased"
https://twitter.com/NGrossman81/status/1701251830255100014
New apprentice scheme part of measures to address shortage of NHS doctors
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12505969/Would-happy-seen-doctor-hadnt-trained-medical-school.html
A long Mail article describing physician/anaesthesia associates and the new medical apprenticeship schemes.
But way more likely than not. And than Trump being the GOP candidate.
Classic one sided analysis.
There's been a huge cycling of political identification over the last decade (see also the Politico piece about medical workers I posted a couple of days back). Democrats have lost support in some traditional areas of strength - but have conversely picked up significant support elsewhere.
The aggregate effect is what Robert talks about in the header.
"Why Biden has lost..." is the same kind of framing I noted a little upthread.
Laura Kuenssberg: State of Chaos review – full of extraordinary revelations, if you can bear to watch
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2023/sep/11/laura-kuenssberg-state-of-chaos-review-full-of-extraordinary-revelations-if-you-can-bear-to-watch
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-66757311
No doubt will also stay on the ground floor when he arrives.
America’s most outspoken fashion critic reveals his style hits and misses of summer 2023
...
In early August, Guy made headlines when he criticised the Prime Minister’s suits. Rishi Sunak had money, Guy argued, so why were his suits so short? “Lots of conspiracy theories on why Sunak wears such short trousers… but my theory is simple… [He] is a vaguely trend-aware guy, but just a little behind the times,” he said. According to Mandrake in the New European, Sunak is set to “drop his trousers” before the next election in response to the criticism – the original proportions were apparently designed to make him look taller.
...
[Commenting on a photograph] Rishi Sunak’s clothes often look shrunken on him. Here they at least fit his shoe. His jacket is a bit short, which is causing the jacket to flare out around his bum. His trousers are so slim they barely cover the end of his shoes. The effect is that he looks like he is wearing clown shoes. He should just go to a different tailor. You can’t widen the trousers without also enlarging the jacket, because the jacket and the trousers have to work together. He should go for a different cut. My impression is that he has trendy tastes that are 15-20 years old. If you saw that person on the street you wouldn’t say he’s poorly dressed, I just think as prime minister, just go to Henry Poole and they’ll take care of it. I don’t understand this early-2000s cut.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/fashion/people/derek-guy-dieworkwear-rishi-sunak-king-charles/ (£££)
What a fucking shambles the Conservatives have brought us. Wrecked decades, nay centuries, of statesmanship, fractured economic ties, diminished us globally. Reduced my freedom, stripped me of my rights. For what? For nothing other than to appease the nutters, the far-right libertarians with their inane theories, the reactionaries, the racists and xenophobes, the nostalgists.
I’m coming to the end of four superb days in Berlin. Four days in a country that doesn’t feel like it’s falling apart, that feels like it gives a fuck about its citizens, where everything works and the public realm isn’t withering before your eyes.
I want my EU citizenship back. I will never forgive the Conservative Party for what they have done, for the lies their founders and members told, brazenly and repeatedly, to deliver the insanity of Brexit.
Yesterday was awful.
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Shoplifters are using TikTok to spread a playbook of tactics on how to steal goods such as clothes, jewellery and make-up from retailers.
Users on the video-sharing platform have rated high-street stores on the basis of how easy it is to get away with shoplifting and offered tips on avoiding detection.
They swap the words “stealing” and “shoplifting” with “borrowing” to evade detection by TikTok’s filters.
A search for “borrowing tips and tricks” on the app generates a host of videos, many from accounts clearly created to advertise shoplifting techniques. The self-declared “borrowers” urge shoplifters not to target small businesses but instead steal from large companies who are less likely to intervene because they can cover the losses.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shoplifters-slip-evade-tiktok-police-to-spread-tips-and-targets-vnwl7ggqk (£££)
The educational uses of TikTok.
https://www.gbnews.com/lifestyle/british-expats-driving-licence-changes-spain-2665089823
GB News is popular with expats on the Costas, apparently.
Thank you.
And good morning y'all.
I'm wondering too.
Here's the equivalent term for Italy - UK Residents in Italy get their licences recognised for one year after gaining Residency, and can just exchange it for a limited period of 5 years if expired; Italian Residents in UK get their licences recognised until expiry date in Italy, and can exchange it here forever with no test.
Whereas a United Kingdom driving licence, as long as it has not expired, remains
valid for the purposes of driving in the territory of the Italian Republic for one year
after the date of acquisition of the holder's residence in the territory of the Italian
Republic,
Whereas an Italian driving licence remains valid for the purposes of driving in the
territory of the United Kingdom until its expiry date even after the holder has
acquired residence in the territory of the United Kingdom
See clause 2:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1128283/CS_UK_Italy_1.2023_Mutual_Recognition_Driving_Licences.pdf
This raises yet another red flag for me on road safety grounds.
This year I have spent time in Norway, Finland, and the Netherlands to which your Germany comment could equally apply.
Indeed I am about to leave Budapest, having visited forty years ago when it was communist and twenty years ago when it was scam city central. Now the city at least appears to have its act together, although with Orban and his cronies, not the nation’s politics.
They couldn't both be right.
Here's a video clip put out by the Black Belt Barrister yesterday about everyday driving in the UK. Driver reversed down a country lane chasing a cyclist he had close passed who had shouted "Watch Out", so out of control / not looking than he forced a quadbike off the road and ran over a dog.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3LB7Ri7-xg
North Yorks Police "No traffic offences committed", "The Driver probably wanted to talk". Apart I'd say from Careless Driving or Dangerous Driving, whatever the offence is on reversing, and several others. Various non motoring offences too, starting with common assault.
Jezza offered a proper alternative.
You opted to not vote for it.
This whole shit show is on you.(and Sunil)
Man up and take responsibility.
Also it's not "pensions"; it's the state pension.
How on earth will that survive a campaign? Can he survive a campaign?
I have a huge financial interest in him staying Democratic candidate and winning the General but men really should be retired in their 80s unless in fine fettle; it's very obvious.
This explains why Twitter is the way it is.
Lots of politicians offer a proper alternative. Unless a majority of voters feel the desire to vote for them, that alternative is about as much use as policies about fairies.
"Pay growth catches up with price rises - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66778178
Cyclist going at 20-25mph doing a time, so doesn't pull over to let the driver past, and nor do they heel over to the side of the road to give space, because of their line, so the driver is basically blocked. The driver gets increasingly frustrated and then when an opportunity to overtake arises - at a closeness less than ideal - the cyclist shouts out, somewhat pompously to the driver, and this triggers a rage in the car driver.
I'm surprised it doesn't happen more often.
It was one of Britain's steps towards its biggest foreign policy failure since the Suez crisis.
But that decision, to make Corbyn Labour leader, eventually delivered a stonking great Conservative majority.
So yes, people opted not to vote for Corbyn. You're damn right they did. And we thank them.
Any must see places/events while you were there? Always interested in a fresh perspective.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNPTlT8HXjk
The police decide that the cyclist contributed to road rage, that the driver simply wanted to "talk" to the cyclist, and that the cyclist should watch his actions in future.
The Cameron/Osborne modernisation project was aimed at voters like you, but the trouble is there aren't very many of them.
The other big issue is informed consent. A lot of Physician Assistants are not clear to patients that they are not, and never will be medically qualified.
Doctors, nurses, physios etc are all heavily regulated professions, but these new grades are evolving without that.
If he clearly isn't up to the job then that's no guarantee.
Sometimes I think you struggle with basic comprehension.
The funny thing is that the further we get from Brexit and the more it is proved not to be the disaster they all yearn for, the more desperate and insane they become in their ravings.
Regular pay, excluding bonuses, rose by 7.8% in May to July compared with the same period last year.
Inflation, a measure of how fast prices of goods and services are rising, rose at the same pace over the same period.
"This means people's real pay is no longer falling," said the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Exercise for the class:
If inflation goes up by 7.8% on the entire basket of goods and services that people need to pay ...
And if wages are going up by 7.8% but the tax thresholds have been frozen ...
Then calculate the real pay that households take home.
(Spoiler: Real pay is declining)
The Chancellor could ensure that real pay is no long falling as claimed, by eliminating fiscal drag and restoring tax thresholds scaling with inflation. However unless or until that is done, at current rates, real pay is still declining.
An F for the ONS, and an F for the Chancellor.
And it's not as if they've done anything particularly conservative with their majority. Granted, they delivered Brexit, but seem paralysed by indecision on what to do next. Meanwhile, none of the positives you hope might come with a Tory government - low taxes, efficient government, consumer rather than producer interests, managing immigration, putting woke back in its box - have happened.
I'm under no illusion Labour will be any improvement in any of these, of course. On almost every level they fit my preferences less. But maybe they'll do something about housing. And possibly infrastructure investment.
Have a look at the clip:
Rear Cam:
https://youtu.be/6rZFrvqMdRo?t=60
Front Cam:
https://youtu.be/YHnE826PuEU
I was just reading the story of how this hotel came to be built; you’ve seen the photos of the bridge and the Danube I’ve been posting this week, taken from my room and the restaurant, and it’s the same from the sauna and gym.
During the financial crisis when the owners were planning the hotel, the city mayor insisted on an international architectural competition, because the site was so prominent, and a panel of architects and other experts was formed to judge the entries.
The entry the panel wanted to award the prize to had designed a totally windowless facade, with the light coming into the hotel down a light well in the middle with some sort of periscope arrangement so you could see the river by looking up. The owner of the site refused to accept the outcome, saying that a windowless hotel would be absurd given the views from the site, and also that its designers had failed to explain how the periscope would be cleaned or maintained or could cope with adverse weather.
In the event no winner was announced and the owner went off to find a new archictect. Now the hotel has 60% of its rooms looking out over one of the most iconic city views in the world.
Pretty messed up to be raising the pay of former teachers by considerably more than current ones. Especially considering many current teachers will also have the graduate tax to pay and will be renting etc too.
Which is no disrespect to you. The problem is the way current employees are being treated - and then with fiscal drag on top to add insult to injury.
The GOP base, on the other hand, is much more unified (even if party elites are not). They want Trump. Lots of GOP politicians thought that meant they could ape Trumps tone, style, rhetoric or policies - but the GOP don't care about those things, they just want Trump.
If it isn't Biden, I don't know who the Dems would choose. Knowing the Democratic Party elites - part of me worries they would once again turn to Hillary Clinton. They might go with Newsom, but I don't think the progressives would take him. Maybe Whitmer - she has made abortion rights pretty central to her campaigns in Michigan and helped the local Democratic party take control from the GOP, so she might get support from all sides.
The Conservative experiment of 2019 was that they could win without Centre-rightist Dads by picking up more Faragists to compensate. And whilst the early results were promising.
But 2019 had the massive confounder of Corbyn. Without him, the experiment doesn't seem to be going so well. The Conservatives need another five percent or so to fail as badly as Major did in 1997, fifteen to get back to May's score of 2017.
Where do they get those extra supporters?
There appears to be several examples of dangerous driving, and one of reversing further than necessary. (In fact it is not clear why he is reversing at all.)
Hard to understand why there was no prosecution. Looks an easy nick to me.