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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Westminster – Edinburgh confrontation over the currency

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited February 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Westminster – Edinburgh confrontation over the currency might be just what the YES campaign wants

Sturgeon accuses Osborne of "campaign rhetoric" – http://t.co/tLPi7yYnNs – but also reiterates SNP's "not pay debt" threat #indyref

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2014
    Oh goody. Another Scotland thread.

    "PB Tories", "Unionists"; "Wee Eck"; "Delusional"; "Nats"; "Pound"; "YES"; "NO"; "Westminster"; "Clueless"; "Flailing"; "UK Debt"; "Oil"; "Tears of laughter, etc."

    Next
  • If the scots don't want to pay the debt, then they won't have any of our assets... simples.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited February 2014
    The polling in England and Wales supports the actions of the troika, Osborne, Balls and Alexander.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    The YES campaign is a shambles.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If the Scots vote yes, keeping all the debt in RUK is a far preferable option to having a hostile government still at the negotiating table.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    fpt

    EVEN IF Osborne is a committed unionist and his motivation today was 100% to secure a No vote, NEVERTHELESS it still makes sense for him to stick to his position on 19 September and ever afterwards a. in order to maintain his credibility and b. for all the supremely cogent reasons advanced by him, the Treasury and all the other unpopular fops in Whitehall that a currency union is bad for rUK. What do you think is going to scare him into a currency union? additional transaction costs in our exports to the non-vast Scottish market, or what?

    Eck 'n' Nick's "don't believe them" routine is the biggest hostage to fortune I have ever seen. They must have a cast-iron expectation of defeat in the ref.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    The polling in England and Wales supports the actions of the troika, Osborne, Balls and Alexander.

    Which doesn't matter one jot.
  • taffys said:

    If the Scots vote yes, keeping all the debt in RUK is a far preferable option to having a hostile government still at the negotiating table.

    From the attitude of the SNP, there is already a hostile party at the negotiating table.

    Faced with that, I see no reason for Westminster to be overly reasonable.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    It's happening again..
    Gareth Thomas MP ‏@GarethThomasMP 2h

    Eurosceptic Tory MPs fear Cameron's Balance of Competences Review plays up the benefits of EU membership? http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4004143.ece
    Soon enough it will be time for Cameron to put those John Major underpants back on.

    You can't say you weren't warned. :)
  • Pulpstar said:

    The polling in England and Wales supports the actions of the troika, Osborne, Balls and Alexander.

    Which doesn't matter one jot.
    It does, Rump UK may have a plebiscite on whether we would like to enter a currency union with an Independent Scotland.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Classic trolling thread header fishing for bites.

    The logic only matched by the spelling - only one u in unreasonable.



  • Obviously as someone who has been backing a yes vote, I encourage all Scots to vote yes.
  • Pulpstar said:

    The polling in England and Wales supports the actions of the troika, Osborne, Balls and Alexander.

    Which doesn't matter one jot.
    In the event of a YES vote, you don't think that the attitude of the parties to the independence settlement is going to be an issue at the next GE?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited February 2014
    Faced with that, I see no reason for Westminster to be overly reasonable.

    Its not about being reasonable. Its about denying what will be a foreign government leverage in your affairs.

    If we take on all the debt we can run our economy/interest rates/debt/currency exactly how we like with no interference or input from Scotland. That makes sturgeon's default threat completely empty.

    And they could do what they wish.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited February 2014
    Ishmael_X said:

    Eck 'n' Nick's "don't believe them" routine is the biggest hostage to fortune I have ever seen.

    You must have been asleep when Cammie gave all those Cast Iron Referendum Pledges.
    Conservatives could hold Lisbon Treaty referendum after ratification

    A Conservative government could hold a referendum on the European Union's Lisbon Treaty even if it has already been ratified, William Hague has said.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/3097376/Conservatives-could-hold-Lisbon-Treaty-referendum-after-ratification.html
    Cammie's own MPs don't trust him and keep humiliating him in the commons yet you somehow expect the scottish public to trust his toxic chum Osborne?

    Good luck with that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    What matter is the YES or NO vote, not what happens afterwards. Alot of things might or might not happen afterwards in the event of a YES vote. I think they'd join the Euro in time personally but the SNP would take winning the YES vote and not having a clue what to do afterwards - a bit like Balls and Miliband in that regard.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    edited February 2014

    taffys said:

    If the Scots vote yes, keeping all the debt in RUK is a far preferable option to having a hostile government still at the negotiating table.

    From the attitude of the SNP, there is already a hostile party at the negotiating table.

    Faced with that, I see no reason for Westminster to be overly reasonable.

    Scots actually offering to pay their share of the debt unreasonable, when the entire tenor of the No side has been to argue that an independent Scotland would be a new state (vide EU ad nauseam, Scotland legally extinguinsed into Greater England in 1707, assets, what assets? etc.) and de facto to argue for a blank slate start? If that's an unreasonable offer I'm an Illyrian poodle.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2014
    The debt threat is laughable. The damage rUK could do to the Scottish economy (rUK will be their largest trading partner by a country mile) by the introduction of tariffs, or excluding Scottish good from Government procurement, is a much larger, knobblier stick to hold.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    BenM said:

    YES

    Ishmael_X said:

    unionist fops
    Eck cast-iron

    Mick_Pork said:

    toxic chum Osborne

    @Anorak House !
  • On the question of Sterling the SNP is more Unionist than the Tories, Labour, and the LDs. The referendum debate has become farcical.
  • On topic, the thread from immediately after the launch of the White Paper sill applies, and indeed anticipated the currency debate today:

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/11/30/salmonds-blueprint-launch-a-very-good-week-for-no/
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Pulpstar said:

    BenM said:

    YES

    Ishmael_X said:

    unionist fops
    Eck cast-iron

    Mick_Pork said:

    toxic chum Osborne

    @Anorak House !
    "Unspoofable" is, I think, the approved phrase.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited February 2014
    The Shetlands have a better case for currency union with London than Edinburgh does
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited February 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    What matter is the YES or NO vote, not what happens afterwards. Alot of things might or might not happen afterwards in the event of a YES vote. I think they'd join the Euro in time personally but the SNP would take winning the YES vote and not having a clue what to do afterwards - a bit like Balls and Miliband in that regard.

    Bollocks if you'll pardon the expression. The metaphor you were searching for was Brown when he got power anyway, not little Ed. Either way it just ain't the case.

    You can't seriously believe the SNP popped up overnight just because the Westminster media pays them far more attention now. We expect all the No spin that the SNP are unprepared etc. That's why the No campaign calls itself Project Fear. Their problem is the SNP didn't just win power in Holyrood in 2011. They turned a minority administration into a majority one because contrary to what SLAB were spinning for decades the sky did not fall in. The scottish public actually liked what they saw and voted for more of it. So if SLAB and 'better together' want to make this about competence then boy did they pick the wrong frontman for that message in scotland in Osborne.
  • FPT David Herdson

    You are right. A newly independent Scotland would indeed need a Governor General. Cool! How about Norman Tebbit?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Anorak said:

    The debt threat is laughable. The damage rUK could do to the Scottish economy (rUK will be their largest trading partner by a country mile) by the introduction of tariffs, or excluding Scottish good from Government procurement, is a much larger, knobblier stick to hold.

    If Scotland walked away from British debt, I would fully expect the UK to oppose entry to Scotland in all international organisations it is part of until their fair share is rightfully paid. The only fair way to divide up everything is a per capita share of both assets and debts. If Scotland walked away with more per person, then the rUK Prime Minister would have sold out his own country.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    More Scotpounds. Dull.

    Instead... Hodgeswatch: what in the name of all that's socialist is going on here?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100259497/the-times-is-helping-the-police-stitch-up-andrew-mitchell-again/

    Now, I found the Mitchell story an amusing bit of Westminster froth, there was a general feeling it couldn't have happened to a more deserving guy, and it was mildly positive for Labour, so I'm broadly (and unjustifiably) pleased about it. But fundamentally, it's not very interesting unless you're a Tory party insider.

    In Hodges world (not AFAIK within the Tory party. Yet), it's well known that everything is bad news for Ed. Fair enough, that's his tribal line within the Labour party, and he presumably gets paid nicely by the Torygraph for confirming their readers' views of Ed at every opportunity. But here he seems to be going out of his way to criticise the Times for using a pretty dull story to undermine Mitchell because (presumably) anything that weakens Mitchell's position implicitly supports the position adopted by Ed. And Ed cannot be allowed to be right about anything, ever, even things he might have been right about.

    I'm sure I must be missing something. Can anyone enlighten me?
  • On topic: Yes you're probably right Mike. But surf the blogosphere today. You'll also note that this is energising the English / EV4EL / right / centre right. It plays overtly and directly to the unionist cause (doing real deep below water line damage to the final outcome if it is going to be YES) but also plays covertly and well with the English / UKIP / bloody Jocks cause.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited February 2014
    George Lyon MEP ‏@georgelyonmep 14m

    Today's #BOCreview shows clearly that we are better off in #EU #whyiamIN http://bit.ly/1jBjaIh


    Kevan Jones MP ‏@KevanJonesMP 20m

    EU wonders why Britain hasn't tapped fund for flood relief http://reut.rs/1jxtsJs via @reuters Cameron scared of Eurosceptics ?
    *chuckles*
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Has anyone gone through the EU Balance of Competences review to see what the cost of not being able to negotiate our trade deals is? Or is that conveniently excluded from it?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Xlibris1 ‏@Xlibris1 37m

    Despite legal threats, Clegg says position not changed: Rennard must back down, and apologise or remain suspended ... http://bbc.in/LWGAsr
    Oh dear.
  • They have already said unequivocally that the rUK would assume full responsibility for all extant UK debt in the markets - as Scottish uncertainties cannot be allowed to impact gilt prices. This means that Scotland's share of the debt would be owed to the rUK treasury and not direct to the market. If Scotland reneged on this then the rUK would feel, rightly, outraged and it would no doubt whatever be considered a delibrate outright default by the markets and rating agencies. Scotland would pay a horrific price to borrow from the market. The rUK would also be absolutely entitled to seek repayment through the Scottish courts and, more painfully, through trade barriers. Let's all hope Scotland would not be so dumb as to go down that path.
  • Mr. Socrates, that is the position that should be held, but I doubt it will be.

    Mr. L (FPT), cheers for the link. As you say, Sturgeon is left in much the same state by Neil as Varro and Paullus were by Hannibal, but (to be fair) Neil is probably the best journalist in politics and does that to most politicians. Not sure if this is the case, but I've heard he's on Question Time tonight.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Please god, just make the whining stop. Either go or stay, but stop whining.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''If Scotland walked away with more per person, then the rUK Prime Minister would have sold out his own country.''

    Completely untrue. He will have saved it.

    It's a false economy to make Scotland wear some debt.

    Investors would not like a split in sovereign debt between governments that may well not like each other and pursue completely different economic policies.

    The extra we spend to refinance our debt in the future might outweigh the extra debt we take on to release Scotland.

    It's well worth taking the hit short term to avoid having to deal with Mick Pork & Co. for 30 years.
  • Socrates said:

    Anorak said:

    The debt threat is laughable. The damage rUK could do to the Scottish economy (rUK will be their largest trading partner by a country mile) by the introduction of tariffs, or excluding Scottish good from Government procurement, is a much larger, knobblier stick to hold.

    If Scotland walked away from British debt, I would fully expect the UK to oppose entry to Scotland in all international organisations it is part of until their fair share is rightfully paid. The only fair way to divide up everything is a per capita share of both assets and debts. If Scotland walked away with more per person, then the rUK Prime Minister would have sold out his own country.

    It's a lot simpler than that. Until there is an agreement that both sides can sign up to, Scotland cannot legally become an independent country.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Please god, just make the whining stop. Either go or stay, but stop whining.

    Taking on all the debt ensures that.

    Cheap at twice the price.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2014
    Patrick said:

    They have already said unequivocally that the rUK would assume full responsibility for all extant UK debt in the markets - as Scottish uncertainties cannot be allowed to impact gilt prices. This means that Scotland's share of the debt would be owed to the rUK treasury and not direct to the market. If Scotland reneged on this then the rUK would feel, rightly, outraged and it would no doubt whatever be considered a delibrate outright default by the markets and rating agencies. Scotland would pay a horrific price to borrow from the market. The rUK would also be absolutely entitled to seek repayment through the Scottish courts and, more painfully, through trade barriers. Let's all hope Scotland would not be so dumb as to go down that path.

    There's no question of reneging, Scottish independence won't happen until terms have been agreed and the Westminster parliament (which, remember, is the union of the old Scottish and English parliaments) passes an Act to make it happen and that Act gets Royal Assent.

    This most fundamental point about the mechanism seems to escape our Nat friends.

    Edit: I see Southam beat me to it
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @hopisen: The SNP reaction to Currency Union announcement is effectively 'how dare you treat us as if we were a totally different country'.

    Yup, the SNPers reaction to the realities of separation has been, and I do mean this, Priceless
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    taffys said:

    ''If Scotland walked away with more per person, then the rUK Prime Minister would have sold out his own country.''

    Completely untrue. He will have saved it.

    It's a false economy to make Scotland wear some debt.

    Investors would not like a split in sovereign debt between governments that may well not like each other and pursue completely different economic policies.

    The extra we spend to refinance our debt in the future might outweigh the extra debt we take on to release Scotland.

    It's well worth taking the hit short term to avoid having to deal with Mick Pork & Co. for 30 years.

    rUK can (and probably should) guarantee the rUK and the Scottish part of the debt. Markets happy. Doesn't mean we should give them a free pass on what's due.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Mick_Pork said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Eck 'n' Nick's "don't believe them" routine is the biggest hostage to fortune I have ever seen.

    You must have been asleep when Cammie gave all those Cast Iron Referendum Pledges.
    Conservatives could hold Lisbon Treaty referendum after ratification

    A Conservative government could hold a referendum on the European Union's Lisbon Treaty even if it has already been ratified, William Hague has said.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/3097376/Conservatives-could-hold-Lisbon-Treaty-referendum-after-ratification.html
    Cammie's own MPs don't trust him and keep humiliating him in the commons yet you somehow expect the scottish public to trust his toxic chum Osborne?

    Good luck with that.

    Your scenario is that Osborne wants to say Nyet to stymie the referendum, and when that fails he will cave and agree to a union because it's such a sensible idea. The trouble is it is not a sensible idea for rUK, for hundreds of good reasons to which we have yet to see a reasoned rebuttal. Plus he has only promised to say no, and that's an easier promise to keep than a promise to hold a referendum. You need to think beyond 18 September.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Patrick said:

    but also plays covertly and well with the English / UKIP / bloody Jocks cause.

    'better together'

    :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ishmael_X said:

    You need to think beyond 18 September.

    None of the Nats have thought that far.
  • taffys said:

    Please god, just make the whining stop. Either go or stay, but stop whining.

    Taking on all the debt ensures that.

    Cheap at twice the price.

    How would Scotland raise money post independence then?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    One place that might not be too happy with a YES vote:


    290 Bath Street
    Glasgow

    G2 4RE

    SLAB Headquarters !
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    taffys said:

    Please god, just make the whining stop. Either go or stay, but stop whining.

    Taking on all the debt ensures that.

    Cheap at twice the price.

    It would indeed be a price worth paying, but only if we could guarantee it would stop the whining.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    "Shares in Rolls Royce fell 18%"

    I faintly remember someone on here had bought into RR just his morning. Hopefully the drop had already taken place.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    saddened said:

    Please god, just make the whining stop. Either go or stay, but stop whining.

    Good grief. What else would the scottish tory surgers and PB tories do if they can't whine incessantly?

    They've been doing so over this since Osborne started posturing on it in 2012 and throughout 2013. Just let them get it out of their system.
  • Socrates said:

    Anorak said:

    The debt threat is laughable. The damage rUK could do to the Scottish economy (rUK will be their largest trading partner by a country mile) by the introduction of tariffs, or excluding Scottish good from Government procurement, is a much larger, knobblier stick to hold.

    If Scotland walked away from British debt, I would fully expect the UK to oppose entry to Scotland in all international organisations it is part of until their fair share is rightfully paid. The only fair way to divide up everything is a per capita share of both assets and debts. If Scotland walked away with more per person, then the rUK Prime Minister would have sold out his own country.

    It's a lot simpler than that. Until there is an agreement that both sides can sign up to, Scotland cannot legally become an independent country.

    Very good point. What happens if we get a YES but no acceptable middle ground can be found? It just never happens? Think of the whining then! Maybe England should declare UDI. What a giant stinking mess this whole business is. It's going to be a NO but leave a lasting legacy of division and unpleasantness. They really opened Pandora's box with the Scotland Act 1998.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    How would Scotland raise money post independence then?

    Scotland would borrow in the markets in whatever currency they chose to use, just like any other sovereign borrower.

    The ratings agencies would give them a rating, the market would charge what it thought was correct, and things would go on from there.

    If they chose to use sterling, a currency they couldn't print, then they would probably be charged a premium to gilts. What that premium might be is anybody's guess.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    If the scots don't want to pay the debt, then they won't have any of our assets... simples.

    That has you lot rattled , bit like George.

    Reading Osborne's speech it is obvious what his game is , if you look past the bluster and lies. Just trying to threaten us as ever. However it is rump UK really starting negotiations albeit by threats but they are obviously worried to have broken their " no pre-negotiations before a YES".
    Now that reality is biting they are starting to show their hand and lo and behold it is threats only.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    taffys said:

    If the Scots vote yes, keeping all the debt in RUK is a far preferable option to having a hostile government still at the negotiating table.

    From the attitude of the SNP, there is already a hostile party at the negotiating table.

    Faced with that, I see no reason for Westminster to be overly reasonable.

    When have they ever been remotely reasonable
  • @Ishmael_X - "You need to think beyond 18 September"

    Could not disagree more. The point of the Yes campaign is to get a Yes. Should that happen on 18th September, that's it, job done, Scotland will become an independent country. What kind of independent country it is does not matter, it will be independent. On 19th September everything that the SNP has promised during the campaign could be revealed to be completely and totally untrue. It would not matter. The Yes could not be undone. That's why I expect a currency union. Scotland will agree to one as envisaged by the rUK. Nothing said today by anyone precludes that; least of all the Treasury paper Osborne released.

  • Mick_Pork said:

    George Lyon MEP ‏@georgelyonmep 14m

    Today's #BOCreview shows clearly that we are better off in #EU #whyiamIN http://bit.ly/1jBjaIh


    Kevan Jones MP ‏@KevanJonesMP 20m

    EU wonders why Britain hasn't tapped fund for flood relief http://reut.rs/1jxtsJs via @reuters Cameron scared of Eurosceptics ?
    *chuckles*

    Someone should point out to the moronic Kevan Jones that any monies from the EU solidarity fund are deducted from our rebate. So there is very little benefit in us calling on them. We might as well just pay the monies from the UK treasury and save on the paperwork.

    Plus of course as with everything involving the EU the flood relief money comes with strings attached concerning how and where it can be spent.

    "The Fund is limited in principle to non-insurable damage and does not compensate for private losses. Long-term action – such as lasting reconstruction, economic redevelopment and prevention – are not eligible for EUSF aid. "
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Neil Gray ‏@NeilGray3 Feb 7

    David Cameron refuses to debate, but lectures us from London, while the people of Somerset suffer: http://www.scoop.it/t/referendum-2014/p/4015545827/2014/02/07/alex-salmond-on-bbc-news-channel-7-feb-2014-youtube?hash=ee8411b2-cc7d-498f-a6f6-36072679a2af … #indyref
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZwuTo7zKM8

    Priceless.
  • The most significant aspect of this Osborne-Balls-Alexander relaunch mark XXIV is that it is yet more proof that Darling has totally lost control over the flailing No campaign he nominally heads.
  • Patrick said:

    Socrates said:

    Anorak said:

    The debt threat is laughable. The damage rUK could do to the Scottish economy (rUK will be their largest trading partner by a country mile) by the introduction of tariffs, or excluding Scottish good from Government procurement, is a much larger, knobblier stick to hold.

    If Scotland walked away from British debt, I would fully expect the UK to oppose entry to Scotland in all international organisations it is part of until their fair share is rightfully paid. The only fair way to divide up everything is a per capita share of both assets and debts. If Scotland walked away with more per person, then the rUK Prime Minister would have sold out his own country.

    It's a lot simpler than that. Until there is an agreement that both sides can sign up to, Scotland cannot legally become an independent country.

    Very good point. What happens if we get a YES but no acceptable middle ground can be found? It just never happens? Think of the whining then! Maybe England should declare UDI. What a giant stinking mess this whole business is. It's going to be a NO but leave a lasting legacy of division and unpleasantness. They really opened Pandora's box with the Scotland Act 1998.

    There'll be an agreement, no doubt about it. But it may not necessarily look very much like the one the SNP are promising currently.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Socrates said:

    Anorak said:

    The debt threat is laughable. The damage rUK could do to the Scottish economy (rUK will be their largest trading partner by a country mile) by the introduction of tariffs, or excluding Scottish good from Government procurement, is a much larger, knobblier stick to hold.

    If Scotland walked away from British debt, I would fully expect the UK to oppose entry to Scotland in all international organisations it is part of until their fair share is rightfully paid. The only fair way to divide up everything is a per capita share of both assets and debts. If Scotland walked away with more per person, then the rUK Prime Minister would have sold out his own country.
    Only one side making threats , Westminster are trying to keep all the assets if they continue with their idle threats they will get what they deserve. One can only hope they continue on their forlorn path to abject defeat.
  • Mick_Pork said:

    Neil Gray ‏@NeilGray3 Feb 7

    David Cameron refuses to debate, but lectures us from London, while the people of Somerset suffer: http://www.scoop.it/t/referendum-2014/p/4015545827/2014/02/07/alex-salmond-on-bbc-news-channel-7-feb-2014-youtube?hash=ee8411b2-cc7d-498f-a6f6-36072679a2af … #indyref
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZwuTo7zKM8

    Priceless.

    I said at the time the lecturing from London approach was bloody stupid. It just confirms all the adverse impressions Scots have of Cameron.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    @Ishmael_X - "You need to think beyond 18 September"

    Could not disagree more. The point of the Yes campaign is to get a Yes. Should that happen on 18th September, that's it, job done, Scotland will become an independent country. What kind of independent country it is does not matter, it will be independent. On 19th September everything that the SNP has promised during the campaign could be revealed to be completely and totally untrue. It would not matter. The Yes could not be undone. That's why I expect a currency union. Scotland will agree to one as envisaged by the rUK. Nothing said today by anyone precludes that; least of all the Treasury paper Osborne released.

    You've lost me there. In what sense does rUK envisage a currency union?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''When have they ever been remotely reasonable.''

    A powerful argument for letting Scotland off gilt debt, in order to freeze Scotland out of sterling economic policy completely.

    It's becoming more attractive by the second.
  • I don't understand why saying a (potential) foreign country can't use the UK currency is being described as threats.

    Surely it is just stating your position on the matter?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    The most significant aspect of this Osborne-Balls-Alexander relaunch mark XXIV is that it is yet more proof that Darling has totally lost control over the flailing No campaign he nominally heads.

    Riiight.

    The nat economic policy with a big hole in it and it's the other side have the work to do.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Richard Moss ‏@BBCRichardMoss Feb 10

    Re reports Rennard taking legal action: RT @BBCNormanS: Sources say @lordrennard will seek costs against Tim Farron if case goes to court

    @1wayticket2hell 24m

    BBC News - Clegg refuses to back down over Rennard legal threat http://bbc.in/LWGAsr
    Poor old Tim Farron.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited February 2014
    Polruan said:

    More Scotpounds. Dull.

    Instead... Hodgeswatch: what in the name of all that's socialist is going on here?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100259497/the-times-is-helping-the-police-stitch-up-andrew-mitchell-again/

    Now, I found the Mitchell story an amusing bit of Westminster froth, there was a general feeling it couldn't have happened to a more deserving guy, and it was mildly positive for Labour, so I'm broadly (and unjustifiably) pleased about it. But fundamentally, it's not very interesting unless you're a Tory party insider.

    In Hodges world (not AFAIK within the Tory party. Yet), it's well known that everything is bad news for Ed. Fair enough, that's his tribal line within the Labour party, and he presumably gets paid nicely by the Torygraph for confirming their readers' views of Ed at every opportunity. But here he seems to be going out of his way to criticise the Times for using a pretty dull story to undermine Mitchell because (presumably) anything that weakens Mitchell's position implicitly supports the position adopted by Ed. And Ed cannot be allowed to be right about anything, ever, even things he might have been right about.

    I'm sure I must be missing something. Can anyone enlighten me?

    Polruan

    You are not so much missing something as adding something you shouldn't.

    Hodges must be allowed an occasional day off in his drive to unseat Ed. It is not necessary to connect his position on Ed to his interest in the Plebgate story.

    Hodges is sound on his main point:

    we will never know the truth about Plebgate. It’s one man’s word against another. But there are certain facts about the case that it is possible to verify independently. And every time another independent fact emerges, it directly contradicts or undermines the police account.

    We may never "know the truth" but circumstantial evidence is mounting to the extent that it is now probable that a court of law (or the public) will reach a 'balance of probabilities' decision in favour of Mitchell.

    Where I do take issue with Hodges is in him criticising The Times for trying to undermine Mitchell. The article has the usual veneer of Times independence but the reported facts are brpadly supportive of Mitchell. This may not apply to the headline but no doubt this was spun by a sub-editor in the legitimate cause of attracting readers.

    It is time for the police both as an institution and individually to drop the Plebgate story and 'move on'. There is little for them to gain by keeping it alive and the risks are heavily weighted to the downside.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Patrick said:

    They have already said unequivocally that the rUK would assume full responsibility for all extant UK debt in the markets - as Scottish uncertainties cannot be allowed to impact gilt prices. This means that Scotland's share of the debt would be owed to the rUK treasury and not direct to the market. If Scotland reneged on this then the rUK would feel, rightly, outraged and it would no doubt whatever be considered a delibrate outright default by the markets and rating agencies. Scotland would pay a horrific price to borrow from the market. The rUK would also be absolutely entitled to seek repayment through the Scottish courts and, more painfully, through trade barriers. Let's all hope Scotland would not be so dumb as to go down that path.

    OOOOOH we are trembling , big bad George is coming for us, squeak squeak. It would be obvious that it was rump UK that was the issue and they would be hated even more than they are now in international circles. They will have to stump up the assets.
  • Mr. Dickson, good to see you on.

    It was mentioned here earlier today (unsure if this has been properly confirmed) that Darling was behind the cross-party consensus on currency.

    Mr. Sulphate, I agree entirely. The SNP need to get a better line.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2014
    taffys said:

    ''When have they ever been remotely reasonable.''

    A powerful argument for letting Scotland off gilt debt, in order to freeze Scotland out of sterling economic policy completely.

    It's becoming more attractive by the second.

    You've mentioned this several times. The argument's "power" seems to have won few converts, however.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    taffys said:

    Please god, just make the whining stop. Either go or stay, but stop whining.

    Taking on all the debt ensures that.

    Cheap at twice the price.

    How would Scotland raise money post independence then?
    I am sure Russia would be happy with a base at Faslane, China would gladly take oil, etc , etc.
  • Ishmael_X said:

    @Ishmael_X - "You need to think beyond 18 September"

    Could not disagree more. The point of the Yes campaign is to get a Yes. Should that happen on 18th September, that's it, job done, Scotland will become an independent country. What kind of independent country it is does not matter, it will be independent. On 19th September everything that the SNP has promised during the campaign could be revealed to be completely and totally untrue. It would not matter. The Yes could not be undone. That's why I expect a currency union. Scotland will agree to one as envisaged by the rUK. Nothing said today by anyone precludes that; least of all the Treasury paper Osborne released.

    You've lost me there. In what sense does rUK envisage a currency union?

    The rUK will agree to a currency union if Scotland agrees to its terms for one. There are benefits for both sides. For the rUK, the union as currently conceived by the SNP would not work - as the Treasury document published today makes clear; however, the current SNP position is designed to maximise the Yes vote. It is not a negotiating stance.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    I *suppose* that to make this position credible it had to be fronted by Osborne.

    But then you have to ask whether consolidating the 'no currency union' position was worth exposing the Scottish electorate to Osborne.

    Surely not.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Scott_P said:

    @hopisen: The SNP reaction to Currency Union announcement is effectively 'how dare you treat us as if we were a totally different country'.

    Yup, the SNPers reaction to the realities of separation has been, and I do mean this, Priceless

    Turnip head does not even realise we are part of the UK, it gets worse.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    malcolmg said:

    taffys said:

    Please god, just make the whining stop. Either go or stay, but stop whining.

    Taking on all the debt ensures that.

    Cheap at twice the price.

    How would Scotland raise money post independence then?
    I am sure Russia would be happy with a base at Faslane, China would gladly take oil, etc , etc.
    last time I looked Putin was distancing himself from Scotland, he appears to have enough problems with his own separatists.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''It would be obvious that it was rump UK that was the issue and they would be hated even more than they are now in international circles.''

    Jeez Malcolm, you honestly expect RUK to want you as a partner of any kind, let alone in a currency union, with an attitude like that??'

    Blimey.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2014
    malcolmg said:

    taffys said:

    Please god, just make the whining stop. Either go or stay, but stop whining.

    Taking on all the debt ensures that.

    Cheap at twice the price.

    How would Scotland raise money post independence then?
    I am sure Russia would be happy with a base at Faslane, China would gladly take oil, etc , etc.
    Ah, a cunning plan to isolate yourselves from the EU, from rUK, and from the USA. A masterly stratagem indeed. Machiavellian, almost.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2014
    malcolmg said:

    taffys said:

    Please god, just make the whining stop. Either go or stay, but stop whining.

    Taking on all the debt ensures that.

    Cheap at twice the price.

    How would Scotland raise money post independence then?
    I am sure Russia would be happy with a base at Faslane,
    Scotland leaves the UK and joins the C.I.S?

    That's one way to get around the sky high expense of joining NATO.

  • malcolmg said:

    taffys said:

    Please god, just make the whining stop. Either go or stay, but stop whining.

    Taking on all the debt ensures that.

    Cheap at twice the price.

    How would Scotland raise money post independence then?
    I am sure Russia would be happy with a base at Faslane, China would gladly take oil, etc , etc.
    So you'd get rid of nukes, and then happy for the Russians to bring them back into the country...

    and people think the nats don't think things through...
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    @Ishmael_X - "You need to think beyond 18 September"

    Could not disagree more. The point of the Yes campaign is to get a Yes. Should that happen on 18th September, that's it, job done, Scotland will become an independent country. What kind of independent country it is does not matter, it will be independent. On 19th September everything that the SNP has promised during the campaign could be revealed to be completely and totally untrue. It would not matter. The Yes could not be undone. That's why I expect a currency union. Scotland will agree to one as envisaged by the rUK. Nothing said today by anyone precludes that; least of all the Treasury paper Osborne released.

    You've lost me there. In what sense does rUK envisage a currency union?

    The rUK will agree to a currency union if Scotland agrees to its terms for one. There are benefits for both sides. For the rUK, the union as currently conceived by the SNP would not work - as the Treasury document published today makes clear; however, the current SNP position is designed to maximise the Yes vote. It is not a negotiating stance.

    "I would advise you against entering into a currency union with an independent Scotland"

    "There is no evidence that adequate proposals or policy changes ...could be devised, agreed and implemented by both governments in the foreseeable future".

    Looks pretty clear to me.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Ishmael_X said:

    @Ishmael_X - "You need to think beyond 18 September"

    Could not disagree more. The point of the Yes campaign is to get a Yes. Should that happen on 18th September, that's it, job done, Scotland will become an independent country. What kind of independent country it is does not matter, it will be independent. On 19th September everything that the SNP has promised during the campaign could be revealed to be completely and totally untrue. It would not matter. The Yes could not be undone. That's why I expect a currency union. Scotland will agree to one as envisaged by the rUK. Nothing said today by anyone precludes that; least of all the Treasury paper Osborne released.

    You've lost me there. In what sense does rUK envisage a currency union?

    The rUK will agree to a currency union if Scotland agrees to its terms for one. There are benefits for both sides. For the rUK, the union as currently conceived by the SNP would not work - as the Treasury document published today makes clear; however, the current SNP position is designed to maximise the Yes vote. It is not a negotiating stance.

    What do you see as the advantages to the UK in a CU ?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    Afternoon all :)

    I have to confess I'm still bemused by the Osborne/Darling/Alexander rhetoric on the currency issue. The UK was quite happy to allow the Irish Free State to use sterling until the Irish printed their own coins and equally happy to have the punt at parity with the pound until the Irish joined the ERM.

    The problem for the Irish was this meant their monetary policy was tied to that of Britain and Irish interest rates and effectively Irish economic policy decided in London. That didn't stop the Irish being independent and being neutral in WW2 (though many Irish fought against the Nazis).

    I can't see why an independent Scotland couldn't have a similar relationship with a Scottish pound tied to sterling. If, as Nicola Sturgeon suggests, there is no desire to join the Euro, the alternative to some form of currency relationship with London would be for an independent Scotland to have its own currency. Now, there are countries inside the EU which are outside the Euro (the UK and Denmark) and I suppose if they could negotiate an opt-out, an independent Scotland could as well.

    At the moment, we're in campaign mode with all sort of threats and worse-case scenarios being banded about. If YES prevails, I suspect we would rapidly see a cooling of some of the rhetoric on both sides and indeed quite an acceptable and mutually relaxed separation in the spring of 2016. Even if NO prevails, the issue doesn't go away inasmuch as the pressure for further devolution (Devomax) will remain.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    @Ishmael_X - "You need to think beyond 18 September"

    Could not disagree more. The point of the Yes campaign is to get a Yes. Should that happen on 18th September, that's it, job done, Scotland will become an independent country. What kind of independent country it is does not matter, it will be independent. On 19th September everything that the SNP has promised during the campaign could be revealed to be completely and totally untrue. It would not matter. The Yes could not be undone. That's why I expect a currency union. Scotland will agree to one as envisaged by the rUK. Nothing said today by anyone precludes that; least of all the Treasury paper Osborne released.

    Especially what Osborne released today.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Mick_Pork said:

    Neil Gray ‏@NeilGray3 Feb 7

    David Cameron refuses to debate, but lectures us from London, while the people of Somerset suffer: http://www.scoop.it/t/referendum-2014/p/4015545827/2014/02/07/alex-salmond-on-bbc-news-channel-7-feb-2014-youtube?hash=ee8411b2-cc7d-498f-a6f6-36072679a2af … #indyref
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZwuTo7zKM8

    Priceless.
    I said at the time the lecturing from London approach was bloody stupid. It just confirms all the adverse impressions Scots have of Cameron.

    No danger of that with Osborne of course. The PB tories and scottish tory surgers seem blithely unconcerned and when are they ever wrong?

  • malcolmg said:

    Socrates said:

    Anorak said:

    The debt threat is laughable. The damage rUK could do to the Scottish economy (rUK will be their largest trading partner by a country mile) by the introduction of tariffs, or excluding Scottish good from Government procurement, is a much larger, knobblier stick to hold.

    If Scotland walked away from British debt, I would fully expect the UK to oppose entry to Scotland in all international organisations it is part of until their fair share is rightfully paid. The only fair way to divide up everything is a per capita share of both assets and debts. If Scotland walked away with more per person, then the rUK Prime Minister would have sold out his own country.
    Only one side making threats , Westminster are trying to keep all the assets if they continue with their idle threats they will get what they deserve. One can only hope they continue on their forlorn path to abject defeat.
    Unspoofable, coming from the side that's threatening to walk away from c.£80bn of debts if they don't get what they want! (And which is lagging forlornly in the polls).
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    @Ishmael_X - "You need to think beyond 18 September"

    Could not disagree more. The point of the Yes campaign is to get a Yes. Should that happen on 18th September, that's it, job done, Scotland will become an independent country. What kind of independent country it is does not matter, it will be independent. On 19th September everything that the SNP has promised during the campaign could be revealed to be completely and totally untrue. It would not matter. The Yes could not be undone. That's why I expect a currency union. Scotland will agree to one as envisaged by the rUK. Nothing said today by anyone precludes that; least of all the Treasury paper Osborne released.

    You've lost me there. In what sense does rUK envisage a currency union?

    The rUK will agree to a currency union if Scotland agrees to its terms for one. There are benefits for both sides. For the rUK, the union as currently conceived by the SNP would not work - as the Treasury document published today makes clear; however, the current SNP position is designed to maximise the Yes vote. It is not a negotiating stance.

    "I would advise you against entering into a currency union with an independent Scotland"

    "There is no evidence that adequate proposals or policy changes ...could be devised, agreed and implemented by both governments in the foreseeable future".

    Looks pretty clear to me.
    I presume those quotes are from the HMT document? They have skin in the game, their Perm Sec's targets include bolstering the case against independence, we simply cant take what they have to say on the issue at face value.
  • Malcolm what are the 'assets' you refer to. A currency is not an asset. I'm sure Soctland would keep its fair share of government land, facilities, foreign exchange reserves, naval vessels, etc, etc. Is that what you mean? Has anyone ever doubted that? You'll get your 8%.
  • malcolmg said:

    taffys said:

    Please god, just make the whining stop. Either go or stay, but stop whining.

    Taking on all the debt ensures that.

    Cheap at twice the price.

    How would Scotland raise money post independence then?
    I am sure Russia would be happy with a base at Faslane, China would gladly take oil, etc , etc.
    I can't tell if this is serious or not.

    Probably not, but I have noticed that one of the main motivations for the yes side seem to be to try and annoy England as best they can. So it wouldn't surprise me if they'd happily sell themselves out to the Russians or Chinese just to try and put England in danger.

    Same deal with the trident, since while a nuclear deterrent is clearly a good thing for Scotland as well as the rUK they'd happily get rid of it just out of spite.

    Reminds me of that joke where someone gets offered the chance to have whatever wish he wants granted, but on the understanding that his enemy gets double what he gets. So he chooses to have his arm cut off,
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Mr. Dickson, good to see you on.

    It was mentioned here earlier today (unsure if this has been properly confirmed) that Darling was behind the cross-party consensus on currency.

    Mr. Sulphate, I agree entirely. The SNP need to get a better line.

    MD , Darling is missing in action , he has not been seen in 2014. Licking his wounds in the bunker, the man is a donkey.
  • Patrick said:

    Malcolm what are the 'assets' you refer to. A currency is not an asset. I'm sure Soctland would keep its fair share of government land, facilities, foreign exchange reserves, naval vessels, etc, etc. Is that what you mean? Has anyone ever doubted that? You'll get your 8%.

    I've never managed to find out what counts as assets and what doesn't to the Nationalists. Does land, oil, gas count as an asset? Or just stuff which isn't already 'theirs' ?
  • Mr. Stodge, one suspects the recency of the financial crisis and the ongoing eurozone crisis has made the UK (and its voters) very wary of currency unions and lenders of last resort. Being seen to be on the hook for Scotland's financial sector would not go down well south of the border.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    edited February 2014
    AveryLP said:

    Polruan said:

    More Scotpounds. Dull.

    Instead... Hodgeswatch: what in the name of all that's socialist is going on here?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100259497/the-times-is-helping-the-police-stitch-up-andrew-mitchell-again/

    Now, I found the Mitchell story an amusing bit of Westminster froth, there was a general feeling it couldn't have happened to a more deserving guy, and it was mildly positive for Labour, so I'm broadly (and unjustifiably) pleased about it. But fundamentally, it's not very interesting unless you're a Tory party insider.
    /blockquote>

    Polruan

    You are not so much missing something as adding something you shouldn't.

    Hodges must be allowed an occasional day off in his drive to unseat Ed. It is not necessary to connect his position on Ed to his interest in the Plebgate story.

    Hodges is sound on his main point:

    we will never know the truth about Plebgate. It’s one man’s word against another. But there are certain facts about the case that it is possible to verify independently. And every time another independent fact emerges, it directly contradicts or undermines the police account.

    We may never "know the truth" but circumstantial evidence is mounting to the extent that it is now probable that a court of law (or the public) will reach a 'balance of probabilities' decision in favour of Mitchell.

    Where I do take issue with Hodges is in him criticising The Times for trying to undermine Mitchell. The article has the usual veneer of Times independence but the reported facts are brpadly supportive of Mitchell. This may not apply to the headline but no doubt this was spun by a sub-editor in the legitimate cause of attracting readers.

    It is time for the police both as an institution and individually to drop the Plebgate story and 'move on'. There is little for them to gain by keeping it alive and the risks are heavily weighted to the downside.

    Yeah, I don't particularly disagree with Hodges' position but it just seems a bit of a non-story, and a strangely partisan rush to defend Mitchell. It doesn't seem something you'd write about just because it's particularly interesting or topical - and as a "niche" columnist you'd expect him to write about his specialism or super-topical issues, such as flooding, So I guess I assume it has to fit into his agenda somewhere.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Patrick O'Flynn ‏@oflynndirector 1h

    Tory so-called "Euro-sceptics" remarkably quiet on balance of competences whitewash and missing chapter on free movement of people.
    Bit harsh. It always takes them a few days to work out they've been taken for gullible fools yet again by Cammie. Then they'll start to get angry.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited February 2014
    In the same way that having Osborne front anything cant be a good idea for 'no' then I also think the "we wont pay our debts" line is counterproductive for 'yes'. It makes the inability to form a currency union sound like such a negative that it could have serious implications for an independent Scotland. Surely the better approach would be to say that a currency union would be preferred but it's no big deal, perfectly plausible alternatives are available if that cant be agreed (it would have the added advantage of being the truth).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Ishmael_X said:

    @Ishmael_X - "You need to think beyond 18 September"

    Could not disagree more. The point of the Yes campaign is to get a Yes. Should that happen on 18th September, that's it, job done, Scotland will become an independent country. What kind of independent country it is does not matter, it will be independent. On 19th September everything that the SNP has promised during the campaign could be revealed to be completely and totally untrue. It would not matter. The Yes could not be undone. That's why I expect a currency union. Scotland will agree to one as envisaged by the rUK. Nothing said today by anyone precludes that; least of all the Treasury paper Osborne released.

    You've lost me there. In what sense does rUK envisage a currency union?

    The rUK will agree to a currency union if Scotland agrees to its terms for one. There are benefits for both sides. For the rUK, the union as currently conceived by the SNP would not work - as the Treasury document published today makes clear; however, the current SNP position is designed to maximise the Yes vote. It is not a negotiating stance.

    SO you are wasting your time posting intelligent thoughts on the matter, the herd is in full flight and are not listening to anything reasonable.
  • Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    @Ishmael_X - "You need to think beyond 18 September"

    Could not disagree more. The point of the Yes campaign is to get a Yes. Should that happen on 18th September, that's it, job done, Scotland will become an independent country. What kind of independent country it is does not matter, it will be independent. On 19th September everything that the SNP has promised during the campaign could be revealed to be completely and totally untrue. It would not matter. The Yes could not be undone. That's why I expect a currency union. Scotland will agree to one as envisaged by the rUK. Nothing said today by anyone precludes that; least of all the Treasury paper Osborne released.

    You've lost me there. In what sense does rUK envisage a currency union?

    The rUK will agree to a currency union if Scotland agrees to its terms for one. There are benefits for both sides. For the rUK, the union as currently conceived by the SNP would not work - as the Treasury document published today makes clear; however, the current SNP position is designed to maximise the Yes vote. It is not a negotiating stance.

    "I would advise you against entering into a currency union with an independent Scotland"

    "There is no evidence that adequate proposals or policy changes ...could be devised, agreed and implemented by both governments in the foreseeable future".

    Looks pretty clear to me.

    I think you need to read the letter and the whole document together. His advice is that as things stand he would advise against a currency union. That is not ruling it out completely. That is saying that things have to change.

  • stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I have to confess I'm still bemused by the Osborne/Darling/Alexander rhetoric on the currency issue. The UK was quite happy to allow the Irish Free State to use sterling until the Irish printed their own coins and equally happy to have the punt at parity with the pound until the Irish joined the ERM.

    The problem for the Irish was this meant their monetary policy was tied to that of Britain and Irish interest rates and effectively Irish economic policy decided in London. That didn't stop the Irish being independent and being neutral in WW2 (though many Irish fought against the Nazis).

    I can't see why an independent Scotland couldn't have a similar relationship with a Scottish pound tied to sterling. If, as Nicola Sturgeon suggests, there is no desire to join the Euro, the alternative to some form of currency relationship with London would be for an independent Scotland to have its own currency. Now, there are countries inside the EU which are outside the Euro (the UK and Denmark) and I suppose if they could negotiate an opt-out, an independent Scotland could as well.

    At the moment, we're in campaign mode with all sort of threats and worse-case scenarios being banded about. If YES prevails, I suspect we would rapidly see a cooling of some of the rhetoric on both sides and indeed quite an acceptable and mutually relaxed separation in the spring of 2016. Even if NO prevails, the issue doesn't go away inasmuch as the pressure for further devolution (Devomax) will remain.

    Its an interesting one and I am not entirely sure of the answer. The UK and Denmark were able to negotiate opt outs to the Euro specifically because they were already members of the EU and their signature was needed on the treaty for it to be ratified.

    A new country entering the EU would not, under the current treaties defining the EU, have that option. Of course it would all come down then to that debate about whether or not Scotland was a new entrant and I have no idea which way that one would fall. Personally I would hope Scotland would see sense and chose not to even join the EU, opting for EFTA membership instead. But I suspect the EU would be very keen to see Scotland inside and would (with a few exceptions like Spain) be willing to interpret Scotland's status as a successor state so that they would be considered to still be members.
  • Neil said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    @Ishmael_X - "You need to think beyond 18 September"

    Could not disagree more. The point of the Yes campaign is to get a Yes. Should that happen on 18th September, that's it, job done, Scotland will become an independent country. What kind of independent country it is does not matter, it will be independent. On 19th September everything that the SNP has promised during the campaign could be revealed to be completely and totally untrue. It would not matter. The Yes could not be undone. That's why I expect a currency union. Scotland will agree to one as envisaged by the rUK. Nothing said today by anyone precludes that; least of all the Treasury paper Osborne released.

    You've lost me there. In what sense does rUK envisage a currency union?

    The rUK will agree to a currency union if Scotland agrees to its terms for one. There are benefits for both sides. For the rUK, the union as currently conceived by the SNP would not work - as the Treasury document published today makes clear; however, the current SNP position is designed to maximise the Yes vote. It is not a negotiating stance.

    "I would advise you against entering into a currency union with an independent Scotland"

    "There is no evidence that adequate proposals or policy changes ...could be devised, agreed and implemented by both governments in the foreseeable future".

    Looks pretty clear to me.
    I presume those quotes are from the HMT document? They have skin in the game, their Perm Sec's targets include bolstering the case against independence, we simply cant take what they have to say on the issue at face value.
    Whereas of course the SNP's 'legal advice' is always independent and bias free?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    @Ishmael_X - "You need to think beyond 18 September"

    Could not disagree more. The point of the Yes campaign is to get a Yes. Should that happen on 18th September, that's it, job done, Scotland will become an independent country. What kind of independent country it is does not matter, it will be independent. On 19th September everything that the SNP has promised during the campaign could be revealed to be completely and totally untrue. It would not matter. The Yes could not be undone. That's why I expect a currency union. Scotland will agree to one as envisaged by the rUK. Nothing said today by anyone precludes that; least of all the Treasury paper Osborne released.

    You've lost me there. In what sense does rUK envisage a currency union?

    The rUK will agree to a currency union if Scotland agrees to its terms for one. There are benefits for both sides. For the rUK, the union as currently conceived by the SNP would not work - as the Treasury document published today makes clear; however, the current SNP position is designed to maximise the Yes vote. It is not a negotiating stance.

    "I would advise you against entering into a currency union with an independent Scotland"

    "There is no evidence that adequate proposals or policy changes ...could be devised, agreed and implemented by both governments in the foreseeable future".

    Looks pretty clear to me.
    I presume those quotes are from the HMT document? They have skin in the game, their Perm Sec's targets include bolstering the case against independence, we simply cant take what they have to say on the issue at face value.
    Whereas of course the SNP's 'legal advice' is always independent and bias free?
    I have no idea, is it relevant to this issue?
  • Ishmael_X said:

    @Ishmael_X - "You need to think beyond 18 September"

    Could not disagree more. The point of the Yes campaign is to get a Yes. Should that happen on 18th September, that's it, job done, Scotland will become an independent country. What kind of independent country it is does not matter, it will be independent. On 19th September everything that the SNP has promised during the campaign could be revealed to be completely and totally untrue. It would not matter. The Yes could not be undone. That's why I expect a currency union. Scotland will agree to one as envisaged by the rUK. Nothing said today by anyone precludes that; least of all the Treasury paper Osborne released.

    You've lost me there. In what sense does rUK envisage a currency union?

    The rUK will agree to a currency union if Scotland agrees to its terms for one. There are benefits for both sides. For the rUK, the union as currently conceived by the SNP would not work - as the Treasury document published today makes clear; however, the current SNP position is designed to maximise the Yes vote. It is not a negotiating stance.

    What do you see as the advantages to the UK in a CU ?

    Cheaper transactional costs and a good relationship with our closest neighbour. If we can achieve all things on the terms that we stipulate I really can't see a downside. Obviously, if our terms are not acceptable to the Scots then it would be impossible and there could be no union.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    malcolmg said:

    taffys said:

    Please god, just make the whining stop. Either go or stay, but stop whining.

    Taking on all the debt ensures that.

    Cheap at twice the price.

    How would Scotland raise money post independence then?
    I am sure Russia would be happy with a base at Faslane, China would gladly take oil, etc , etc.
    last time I looked Putin was distancing himself from Scotland, he appears to have enough problems with his own separatists.
    Being economical with the truth there Alan. He said it was for the people of Scotland and not his business. His previous quote rubbished the UK and said he liked Scotland much to the chagrin of Cameron after his pleading.
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