Hand One: the need to refurbish the schools estate which had as yet not killed or injured anyone but which is a high priority because buildings don't last forever.
Hand Two: gigantic huge fucking juggernaut of expense as a result of Covid measures including lockdown, furlough, PPE, younameit.
In those circumstances you deal with what is in front of you, not what might happen but has not to date. I would imagine that routinely building inspectors visit schools and make comments on structural integrity.
The ultimate problem here is that the government only funded a school rebuilding rate of 50 schools / year. That implies a school building lifetime of 650 years without a complete refurb / rebuild for an estate of 32,000 schools: Clearly an impossibility. The required rate is something like the 300-400 / annum that the DfE knew they needed a decade ago but also knew the Treasury would never fund at the time. The RAAC crisis is just the first symptom of this insanity, because RAAC was the first building material to fail at scale. Everything else is going to fail too, it’s just a matter of time.
It seems to be a pattern that Conservatives governments eat the countries seed corn & eventually someone has to pay to fix it, or we’ll have no school or hospital buildings at all.
What makes a job crappy? Serious question - let’s try and define it.
I think it’s a simple 3 x 3 matrix.
- is it well paid or poorly paid - is it an interesting or fulfilling job to do - does it come with excessive levels of pressure or stress
So the worst jobs are pointless and unfulfilling, highly stressful and poorly paid. The best are high paid, fascinating and with manageable levels of stress. David Attenborough’s job for example, or Michael Palin.
I think that misses out a significant factor -- what are the other people, and especially your immediate boss, like? An otherwise mundane job with a group of friendly people who all get along can be a lot less awful than a job that's theoretically interesting but full of office politics and where the boss is a terrible micromanager (or worse).
I agree with your matrix, but people vary a lot on which part really matters. The key for me is simply whether I can do the job well, though clearly that reflects an adequate financial position so the level of pay isn't crucial. Any irritating managers or colleagues can then be shrugged off. I've had times when I felt I wasn't solving the issues I faced adequately, and that was horrible even with friendly colleagues and boss.
When I'm solving problems, hopefully helping people or animals, everything's fine, and high pressure is good fun. Yesterday, I had a complex, urgent report to write which took 7 hours of screen time with a short break, and I felt really happy about it by the end of the day.
Our HR department worries about stress and has signed us all up for https://www.calm.com/ - I asked only half-jokingly whether we couldn't have an excite.com app for dull moments. The adrenalin that you get from productive stress is underrated.
Oh I do agree with this!
One reason I love doing investigations is because of the adrenalin, the uncertainty, the chaos, trying to make sense of it all, the high you get from that, etc.,. Stick me at a desk writing out a contract and I'd die from boredom.
Tell me that the police are at the front desk, a journalist is on the phone and I've got to brief a load of worried senior people in 30 minutes and I'm in my happy place.
It is what psychologists, I think, call experiencing flow - becoming so absorbed in a task that you don't notice time passing. For some, this will be a people-based task (from what you say, Cyclefree, interactions with people are an important part of a fulfilling and absorbing task for you), for others (like me), it will be when doing a head-down piece of complicated spreadsheet work. It's something I've experienced fewer times than I'd have liked in my career. I used to be a computer programmer, but weirdly that didn't do it for me most of the time - both too stressful (why isn't this program working?!) and too boring (95% of what I did didn't actually require that much thinking). What I really like is having a one-off bit of complex analysis to do (if we change this system in this way, what will the impact be?).
Anyway, despite the relative infrequency of experiencing flow, I have what I think is a very good job - the right balance between well paid, but rarely occupies my time outside of my contracted hours; I can work from home half the time, and get home from the office in 35 minutes the other half of the time; I like the people I work with, I find the subject matter interesting. I still wouldn't be doing it if I was financially independent - though work is agreeable, there is a long and impossible list of things I need or want to get done which work is getting in the way of: I would rather spend my time on the kids, my wife, the house, my health, and doing pleasant and interesting and enjoyable things like walking - but that's why they have to pay you to work, isn't it?
You guys should try betting for a living!
Ticks every imaginable box.
To be honest, I did get the feeling of absorbtion and exhileration a few years back when I was making odds and ends matching bets with the online bookies using a spreadsheet I'd knocked up. Didn't last though - most of them banned me! But match betting isn't really gambling, it's just taking advantage of opportunities. I just wouldn't have enough confidence in my predictive abilities to gamble for a living. It's an occasional hobby, and done much more for the pleasure of being right than for any notable financial gain. I take my hat off to those who can do it professionally!
Hear what you you are saying, Cookie, and concur.
Just to clarify, I was never a full-on professional who had to win to eat. I started when I was made redundant to see if I could supplement my pension sufficiently to avoid the necessity of returning to full-time work. I used £20k of my redundancy payout as a betting bank. Fifteen years later, when I retired from serious punting, I still had it, plus a wealth of exciting and sometimes amusing experiences.
There is little to beat the thrill of collecting when a well-researched winner guys in!
Oh, I see Chris Pincher has resigned. Quelle dommage!
Wonder what will happen to his seat. Will anyone pinch it, d'ya think?
Now that should be a nice gain for Labour.
The Conservatives had a 43% majority over Labour in Tamworth in 2019 so on UNS even on current polls they should hold it.
However, it was Labour from 1997 to 2010 in the Blair years and it is a by election and on the 23% swing Labour got in the Selby election they would win it
The LDs are likely to give this a wide berth and the Lab by-election team isn't as good, so I would go along with a Tory hold personally also.
Without reading it let me guess the gist: we just need to believe in ourselves more so that we can capitalise on the benefits of Brexit?
I used to read the Telegraph but I've given up. Not so much its politics per se but the reactionary nature of it now. Take today's front page. 5 of the 6 pieces on the front are reactionary anti-woke. There's even one having a dig about climate change. It's not that there aren't news stories embedded within. It's that they are dressed up in increasingly embittered language by old people raging against the dying of the light.
A neat summation of the current government. Notable in the Rees-Mogg spat the other day was that he criticised the lack of things being done by the government. Parliament sits with short days because there is nothing being done by the government.
The public are clear that the country is falling apart all around them. Yet the government not only does nothing, it seems to be it absolute denial that is happening. Note the RAAC scandal - Sunak insists that he increased funding as he cut it, that a lack of complaints by Starmer means there is no problem, and anyway most students won't be eaten by the shark therefore there is no shark.
I asked my Dad, who is a buildings surveyor working for a local authority, about the concrete. He was quite dismissive, feeling it's been blown out of proportion by structural engineers who stand to gain masses of work by the crisis. I tend to agree.
He is exactly right, people keep using the term "crumbling" when talking about Schools. How many school buildings have collapsed, how many injuries have occured?
Er… how many injuries is an acceptable number to have before doing anything?
You have to balance risk and cost (not just financial but also the disruption to education, etc)
Yeah but it's the same kind of solely capitalist-driven argument which led to the Zeebrugge ferry disaster in which 193 people died or, indeed, Aberfan in which 116 school children were crushed / suffocated to death whilst at school along with 28 adults.
Aberfan happened under a nationalised industry and the failings that led to the disaster were due to ignorance and negligence, not the capitalist pursuit of profit. There were no great cost implications about siting the spoil heaps on the other side of the mountain - as had been done to the earlier spoil heaps during the privatised era. People just didn't think and really didn't care - until it was too late.
Fair summary.
Zeebrugge though. Aptly involving a ship called the Herald of Free Enterprise.
That was the disaster that personally felt closest to home for me. The captain of the vessel was taken to the hospital next to my school in Canterbury and there was a police guard at the door as a result.
It wasn't his fault, either. It came down to a single crew member who fell asleep when he should have been minding the doors.
Of course the responsibilty spreads a lot wider than that - general safety standards were inadequate and the company sailed far to close to the wind. Aberfan was not entirely dissimilar, although a 'couldn't care less attitude' seems to have been a big factor there.
But if you’re the Captain, you’re the Captain. He set sail without absolute confirmation that the door was closed.
As with, for example, Paula Vennels or Cressida Dick, if the ship goes down on your watch, the buck stops with you.
As @Malmesbury constantly says with his #Nu10k comments, many of modern society’s problems come from the fact that the people in charge are allowed to fail upwards, protected by their peers, rather than being fired and told to stack shelves for a living.
The system was faulty, as well. Depending on one human to do something without checks is a failure eating to happen.
A system displaying if your ship was/was not watertight, on the bridge is not a new thing. Submarines had this before WWI.
IIRC, such as system was mandated after the Herald Of Free Enterprise disaster.
Reginald Baker designed many of the landing ships used in WWII and since. He used as a design principle that if the vehicle deck was open to the sea, the ship should have sufficient stability to survive.
Hand One: the need to refurbish the schools estate which had as yet not killed or injured anyone but which is a high priority because buildings don't last forever.
Hand Two: gigantic huge fucking juggernaut of expense as a result of Covid measures including lockdown, furlough, PPE, younameit.
In those circumstances you deal with what is in front of you, not what might happen but has not to date. I would imagine that routinely building inspectors visit schools and make comments on structural integrity.
The ultimate problem here is that the government only funded a school rebuilding rate of 50 schools / year. That implies a school building lifetime of 650 years without a complete refurb / rebuild for an estate of 32,000 schools: Clearly an impossibility. The required rate is something like the 300-400 / annum that the DfE knew they needed a decade ago but also knew the Treasury would never fund at the time. The RAAC crisis is just the first symptom of this insanity, because RAAC was the first building material to fail at scale. Everything else is going to fail too, it’s just a matter of time.
It seems to be a pattern that Conservatives governments eat the countries seed corn & eventually someone has to pay to fix it, or we’ll have no school or hospital buildings at all.
See also virtually every other industry where the Government gets involved. We have a boom (followed by a forthcoming bust) on train building and a lot of contractors who used to work on trackside infrastructure are walking away given the lack of certainty within the market place.
And this is just stupidity because the cheapest way of doing anything in most sectors is to have a set of x,000 workers with a pipeline of work for the next X years just moving from project a to project b as a project finishes.
And as I keep reminding people, the idea of lockdown/online learning is now a working tool to address all kinds of issues when we were assured it was a unique set of circumstances, once in a lifetime, etc. It is rapidly moving to BAU which is shocking and very troubling.
Yes, if heavy snow in winter means "online teaching" rather than "free day off" a key part of our childhood experience will have been lost...
I don’t recall any time off for snow, or any other climate-related issues, in my school career in the 40’s and 50’s. Or, come to that, the war.
My grandad used to tell me how he'd wish for air raid sirens before school, because if that happened the day of school was cancelled...
I lived on Canvey Island, in the Thames estuary, the route the Germans used to fly to the East End and the docks. There may have been school closures in 1940/1 but I didn't start school until late 1942.
What makes a job crappy? Serious question - let’s try and define it.
I think it’s a simple 3 x 3 matrix.
- is it well paid or poorly paid - is it an interesting or fulfilling job to do - does it come with excessive levels of pressure or stress
So the worst jobs are pointless and unfulfilling, highly stressful and poorly paid. The best are high paid, fascinating and with manageable levels of stress. David Attenborough’s job for example, or Michael Palin.
I think that misses out a significant factor -- what are the other people, and especially your immediate boss, like? An otherwise mundane job with a group of friendly people who all get along can be a lot less awful than a job that's theoretically interesting but full of office politics and where the boss is a terrible micromanager (or worse).
I agree with your matrix, but people vary a lot on which part really matters. The key for me is simply whether I can do the job well, though clearly that reflects an adequate financial position so the level of pay isn't crucial. Any irritating managers or colleagues can then be shrugged off. I've had times when I felt I wasn't solving the issues I faced adequately, and that was horrible even with friendly colleagues and boss.
When I'm solving problems, hopefully helping people or animals, everything's fine, and high pressure is good fun. Yesterday, I had a complex, urgent report to write which took 7 hours of screen time with a short break, and I felt really happy about it by the end of the day.
Our HR department worries about stress and has signed us all up for https://www.calm.com/ - I asked only half-jokingly whether we couldn't have an excite.com app for dull moments. The adrenalin that you get from productive stress is underrated.
Oh I do agree with this!
One reason I love doing investigations is because of the adrenalin, the uncertainty, the chaos, trying to make sense of it all, the high you get from that, etc.,. Stick me at a desk writing out a contract and I'd die from boredom.
Tell me that the police are at the front desk, a journalist is on the phone and I've got to brief a load of worried senior people in 30 minutes and I'm in my happy place.
With work there's good stress and bad stress. The good type is when the problems come thick and fast and you feel energized and empowered because you know what you're doing, like it, and will get credit and reward for sorting things. The bad type is when you get the grief and the hassle but don't really have the wherewithal to fix anything. Hence why stress is often a bigger problem at lower and middle echelons than at the top.
Oh, I see Chris Pincher has resigned. Quelle dommage!
Wonder what will happen to his seat. Will anyone pinch it, d'ya think?
Now that should be a nice gain for Labour.
The Conservatives had a 43% majority over Labour in Tamworth in 2019 so on UNS even on current polls they should hold it.
However, it was Labour from 1997 to 2010 in the Blair years and it is a by election and on the 23% swing Labour got in the Selby election they would win it
The LDs are likely to give this a wide berth and the Lab by-election team isn't as good, so I would go along with a Tory hold personally also.
At the 1996 by-election the result was Lab 60%, Con 28.5%. That version of the seat was slightly more Conservative than the current one, (ie. included a couple of Tory villages that aren't in the seat now).
Oh, I see Chris Pincher has resigned. Quelle dommage!
Wonder what will happen to his seat. Will anyone pinch it, d'ya think?
It will be interesting to see the timings for this - I believe it's essentially the Cnservatives who'd move the writ by convention in a held seat.
The obvious choice is 19 October to go with Mid Beds, simply to have the bad news (assuming it is bad news) on one day.
However, there might be a case for a different date as the red-on-gold tussle in Mid Beds is quite helpful for the blues, and having Tamworth on the same day does tend to help the Lib Dems by diverting Labour resource (Lib Dems clearly won't go all out for Tamworth, but Labour clearly will).
The two seats aren't all that far apart (about 80 miles) so it's a choice as to which to go to for a lot of activists (in a way which it isn't for Rutherglen - there might be a few Labour activists mulling whether to go to Rutherglen or Beds but for most the choice is pretty clear based on convenience).
And as I keep reminding people, the idea of lockdown/online learning is now a working tool to address all kinds of issues when we were assured it was a unique set of circumstances, once in a lifetime, etc. It is rapidly moving to BAU which is shocking and very troubling.
Yes, if heavy snow in winter means "online teaching" rather than "free day off" a key part of our childhood experience will have been lost...
I don’t recall any time off for snow, or any other climate-related issues, in my school career in the 40’s and 50’s. Or, come to that, the war.
My grandad used to tell me how he'd wish for air raid sirens before school, because if that happened the day of school was cancelled...
I lived on Canvey Island, in the Thames estuary, the route the Germans used to fly to the East End and the docks. There may have been school closures in 1940/1 but I didn't start school until late 1942.
My grandad was Kentish town way? He was born in 31, so would have been 9-10 during the worst of the blitz.
I can't remember contrarian. Was he the one who thought Covid came from space? SD hated tories and so was ok. MrEd can fuck the fuck off and fuck off again when he gets there.
I didn't think Rishi Sunak would be the one to roll back Brexit but well done!
Seconded. Rejoining Horizon is good news. Following things like the Windsor Protocol and greater cooperation with France on refugees it's another step towards what has to be the ultimate medium term goal, the Pointless Brexit, one where the damage is mainly mitigated.
Oh, I see Chris Pincher has resigned. Quelle dommage!
Wonder what will happen to his seat. Will anyone pinch it, d'ya think?
It will be interesting to see the timings for this - I believe it's essentially the Cnservatives who'd move the writ by convention in a held seat.
The obvious choice is 19 October to go with Mid Beds, simply to have the bad news (assuming it is bad news) on one day.
However, there might be a case for a different date as the red-on-gold tussle in Mid Beds is quite helpful for the blues, and having Tamworth on the same day does tend to help the Lib Dems by diverting Labour resource (Lib Dems clearly won't go all out for Tamworth, but Labour clearly will).
The two seats aren't all that far apart (about 80 miles) so it's a choice as to which to go to for a lot of activists (in a way which it isn't for Rutherglen - there might be a few Labour activists mulling whether to go to Rutherglen or Beds but for most the choice is pretty clear based on convenience).
I'm not a fan of the convention about former party moving a writ. Especially in cases where the MP was independent at the time.
If someone dies I think it's fair, otherwise I'd say anyone should.
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
Interesting thing about this by-election: the Conservatives have a candidate there for the GE called Eddie Hughes. Unhelpfully he is the current MP for Walsall North.
They won’t want a by-election there so they’ll have to find a candidate happy to serve as a kind of interim MP
I didn't think Rishi Sunak would be the one to roll back Brexit but well done!
Seconded. Rejoining Horizon is good news. Following things like the Windsor Protocol and greater cooperation with France on refugees it's another step towards what has to be the ultimate medium term goal, the Pointless Brexit, one where the damage is mainly mitigated.
Yes it is good news. It’s hardly rolling back Brexit though. We have left the EU, we are not returning anytime soon. However a more collaborative approach is to be welcomed.
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
Interesting thing about this by-election: the Conservatives have a candidate there for the GE called Eddie Hughes. Unhelpfully he is the current MP for Walsall North.
They won’t want a by-election there so they’ll have to find a candidate happy to serve as a kind of interim MP
That is pretty funny. Could depress Tory vote from a likely hold, since they know the person wouldn't even be MP for more than a year, possibly a lot less?
Interesting thing about this by-election: the Conservatives have a candidate there for the GE called Eddie Hughes. Unhelpfully he is the current MP for Walsall North.
They won’t want a by-election there so they’ll have to find a candidate happy to serve as a kind of interim MP
It’s a weird situation with the boundary changes. Can they find a local activist willing to do the job for a year but then walk away?
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
Stamped plates are easy to 3D print.
But is that still harder, in that 3d printers are not an every household item, to current methods? Even a little harder would reduce the amount.
Interesting thing about this by-election: the Conservatives have a candidate there for the GE called Eddie Hughes. Unhelpfully he is the current MP for Walsall North.
They won’t want a by-election there so they’ll have to find a candidate happy to serve as a kind of interim MP
It’s a weird situation with the boundary changes. Can they find a local activist willing to do the job for a year but then walk away?
Does one year as an MP qualify for a pension? Pretty attractive offer if it does.
Interesting thing about this by-election: the Conservatives have a candidate there for the GE called Eddie Hughes. Unhelpfully he is the current MP for Walsall North.
They won’t want a by-election there so they’ll have to find a candidate happy to serve as a kind of interim MP
Oh, I see Chris Pincher has resigned. Quelle dommage!
Wonder what will happen to his seat. Will anyone pinch it, d'ya think?
It will be interesting to see the timings for this - I believe it's essentially the Cnservatives who'd move the writ by convention in a held seat.
The obvious choice is 19 October to go with Mid Beds, simply to have the bad news (assuming it is bad news) on one day.
However, there might be a case for a different date as the red-on-gold tussle in Mid Beds is quite helpful for the blues, and having Tamworth on the same day does tend to help the Lib Dems by diverting Labour resource (Lib Dems clearly won't go all out for Tamworth, but Labour clearly will).
The two seats aren't all that far apart (about 80 miles) so it's a choice as to which to go to for a lot of activists (in a way which it isn't for Rutherglen - there might be a few Labour activists mulling whether to go to Rutherglen or Beds but for most the choice is pretty clear based on convenience).
I'm not a fan of the convention about former party moving a writ. Especially in cases where the MP was independent at the time.
If someone dies I think it's fair, otherwise I'd say anyone should.
I think people do occasionally threaten to do it (the Lib Dems were sabre-rattling on it in Mid Beds and arguably it forced the Tories' hand - although personally I think they'd have done it anyway).
There should certainly be a slightly more formal timetable. The convention is to move the writ within 3 months (although occasionally, normally when a General Election is imminent even that's not met). But that's quite a long time for an area to go unrepresented when there's a fair extent to which it's just tactical by the incumbent party.
And as I keep reminding people, the idea of lockdown/online learning is now a working tool to address all kinds of issues when we were assured it was a unique set of circumstances, once in a lifetime, etc. It is rapidly moving to BAU which is shocking and very troubling.
Yes, if heavy snow in winter means "online teaching" rather than "free day off" a key part of our childhood experience will have been lost...
I don’t recall any time off for snow, or any other climate-related issues, in my school career in the 40’s and 50’s. Or, come to that, the war.
My grandad used to tell me how he'd wish for air raid sirens before school, because if that happened the day of school was cancelled...
I lived on Canvey Island, in the Thames estuary, the route the Germans used to fly to the East End and the docks. There may have been school closures in 1940/1 but I didn't start school until late 1942.
My grandad was Kentish town way? He was born in 31, so would have been 9-10 during the worst of the blitz.
Not a good place to be then! We used to hear the bombers at night; my memory says often but of course I'd have gone to bed at about 6. In our Morrison shelter with my mother, aunt and little sister! Wasn't your grandad evacuated? I thought most children in East London were! My uncle in Grays was.
And as I keep reminding people, the idea of lockdown/online learning is now a working tool to address all kinds of issues when we were assured it was a unique set of circumstances, once in a lifetime, etc. It is rapidly moving to BAU which is shocking and very troubling.
Yes, if heavy snow in winter means "online teaching" rather than "free day off" a key part of our childhood experience will have been lost...
I don’t recall any time off for snow, or any other climate-related issues, in my school career in the 40’s and 50’s. Or, come to that, the war.
My grandad used to tell me how he'd wish for air raid sirens before school, because if that happened the day of school was cancelled...
I lived on Canvey Island, in the Thames estuary, the route the Germans used to fly to the East End and the docks. There may have been school closures in 1940/1 but I didn't start school until late 1942.
My grandad was Kentish town way? He was born in 31, so would have been 9-10 during the worst of the blitz.
Schools (and children) were evacuated during the blitz. Does this not count as closure?
I didn't think Rishi Sunak would be the one to roll back Brexit but well done!
Seconded. Rejoining Horizon is good news. Following things like the Windsor Protocol and greater cooperation with France on refugees it's another step towards what has to be the ultimate medium term goal, the Pointless Brexit, one where the damage is mainly mitigated.
Yes it is good news. It’s hardly rolling back Brexit though. We have left the EU, we are not returning anytime soon. However a more collaborative approach is to be welcomed.
Yes, it's just the EU stepping back from playing silly buggers on the issue. (Not least because British science is disproportionately strong). This is where we should have been - no need to be in the EU to be in Horizon (which I think includes Switzerland?)
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
I’ve seen evidence of people selling driving licences too, which probably explains why the standard of driving on the roads seems to have dropped significantly recently (am I imagining this, or is it just me?).
The incompetence of this government is pushing corruption into the system. Once embedded it’s difficult to remove because a few corrupt individuals drag everyone around them down with them.
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
Stamped plates are easy to 3D print.
It would only need a couple of people to get the same sentence given to private banknote printers, before private plate makers give up on the idea. This is how it works in the US and the Middle East. Edit: Germany has stamped plates too.
With modern technology, it would be easy to attach RFID chips to legitimate plates.
The next parliamentary by-election will be held on 19th September for 2 crossbencher herediaries, so it will be conducted under STV with 32 crossbenchers as the electors and 13 candidates.
Statements
Albemarle, E. 25 years of experience in industrial design and packaging conducted in Europe & the USA. 12 years have been spent farming in East Sussex. My aim would be to contribute to the understanding of creative arts sector as well as contemporary knowledge of agricultural, land & environmental issues. Stood in the house from 1988 to 1999 now in my late 50’s would like to contribute as in the past as a Cross Bench Peer.
Aldington, L. My career was in banking, since which I have written books on Landscape gardening and two ancestors. Currently I am working on Devolution in England. Together with a loose team of knowledgeable people, we have looked at the hurdles and concerns, what structure might work, consequences for public funding and sources of investment. The topic is vital for our country’s future. It will come before the House frequently, and I would like to contribute.
Braybrooke, L. I am the marketing director of an established British luxury brand and have spent the last twenty years working in the internet and technology sector, from small start-ups to multinational companies. With my experience, I would be able to contribute on a wide range of issues in these fields which I feel would complement the make-up of the House. I am a political independent and would regularly attend the House.
Carnarvon, E. I have long experience in working in the rural economy at Highclere including farming and tourism so interested in the challenges facing these industries. Also part of a new spirits brand with USA partners exporting from UK distillery. I am politically centrist and see that the best way forward for the UK is to give up the dogma of recent years and use the best ideas from both main parties.
Chorley, L. I would make a material contribution using my professional IT expertise, personal interests and experience. I have made public-sector IT projects work nationally and internationally for over 30 years, effecting Digital-Transformation in organisations by applying new technologies like AI, to safely improve public services: this experience may be under-represented in the House. Personally, I worked for 5 years in Asia-Pacific, have long-standing interests in built heritage and the environment, and a multi-generational experience of neurodiversity.
De Clifford, L. My aspirations continue to be a committed independent, and effective member of the house. I am the Chief Operating and Finance Officer for a large veterinary group and president of the Veterinary Management Group. I bring expertise and experience in animal welfare, food production, and safety, leadership development, and business management. I have an open mindset and the ability to listen, evaluate and understand thus bringing a broad perspective to the workings of the House.
Anyway there is nothing to stop any of them coming back, with a new UserID, like CHB, Ishmael and Leon regularly do.
Stuart Dickson seemed to despise this place anyway and I did wonder why he posted as long as he did although his polling analysis was always interesting.
Erne, E. (L. Fermanagh) JOHN CRICHTON, EARL OF ERNE 1. I come from Northern Ireland and I am interested in UK Politics and the retention of the Union of all and constituent parts. 2. I have over 30 years experience of residential property in England and tourism/hospitality sector in N. Ireland. 3. I wish to play my part in the House of Lords as I believe its value as a revising Chamber. 4. Involved in cross community border charity.
Meston, L. Practising barrister from 1973 (QC 1996) until 1999 (mainly family law). Then a circuit judge until 2020. Now part-time judge. Second in last Crossbench by-election. Active in Lords until 1999, latterly a Crossbencher. Particularly involved in Bills concerning children, domestic abuse, divorce. Committees included Medical Ethics, Statutory Instruments, Consolidation Bills, Personal Bills. Believe strongly in effective scrutiny of legislation and the value of Crossbench independence and objectivity. Would commit fully to involvement in the Lords.
Rochdale, V. Jonathan Rochdale MSc Award-winning education entrepreneur: 24 years, developed scientifically proven techniques to help professionals, students, and dyslexics learn more efficiently and quickly. Masters: Finance, trade, shipping. Specific focus on China. Understanding of Chinese language and East Asian culture. Front-line public service: Metropolitan Police, 12 years (commendations for bravery and investigative ability). Champion: Dyslexia, mental health – depression, bipolar, addiction (all four from lived experiences). Social justice, environment, and climate. Fully committed, independent and London-based.
Sempill, L. As a past member of the Crossbenches, I would be privileged to have the opportunity to return and participate fully in the business of the House. In the intervening years I have had a brief flirtation with Scottish politics, since when I have been actively engaged in Scottish Ancestral Tourism. (https://www.clanchieftours.co.uk/) I am in good health and now live a short train ride from Westminster.
Somerleyton, L 25 years experience and entrepreneurship in hospitality and in East Anglia, 17 years’ practical experience in rural affairs, agriculture, environment, tourism and heritage. Founder WildEast Foundation – a community stakeholder driven regional nature recovery network with the aim of turning 20% of East Anglia wild. Other interests, Middle Eastern and European affairs, education and climate crisis. President of three local charities, vice chair of the Historic Houses eastern region committee, recently became a DL.
Southampton, L. No statement
Walpole, L. Politics has been part of my life since childhood Work: inter alia, photographer, writer, financial analyst Education: MA, PhD upgrade Fluent French Would commit to being a full-time working peer
Interesting thing about this by-election: the Conservatives have a candidate there for the GE called Eddie Hughes. Unhelpfully he is the current MP for Walsall North.
They won’t want a by-election there so they’ll have to find a candidate happy to serve as a kind of interim MP
It’s a weird situation with the boundary changes. Can they find a local activist willing to do the job for a year but then walk away?
Does one year as an MP qualify for a pension? Pretty attractive offer if it does.
Not sure if there is a minimum period of service but the benefits you'd accrue over the course of one year's service, even in a very generous pension scheme, would be pretty trivial.
Interesting thing about this by-election: the Conservatives have a candidate there for the GE called Eddie Hughes. Unhelpfully he is the current MP for Walsall North.
They won’t want a by-election there so they’ll have to find a candidate happy to serve as a kind of interim MP
It’s a weird situation with the boundary changes. Can they find a local activist willing to do the job for a year but then walk away?
Sounds kind of fun, doesn't it? I'd be up for it if I had a non-trivial chance of winning.
I didn't think Rishi Sunak would be the one to roll back Brexit but well done!
Seconded. Rejoining Horizon is good news. Following things like the Windsor Protocol and greater cooperation with France on refugees it's another step towards what has to be the ultimate medium term goal, the Pointless Brexit, one where the damage is mainly mitigated.
Yes it is good news. It’s hardly rolling back Brexit though. We have left the EU, we are not returning anytime soon. However a more collaborative approach is to be welcomed.
Yes, it's just the EU stepping back from playing silly buggers on the issue. (Not least because British science is disproportionately strong). This is where we should have been - no need to be in the EU to be in Horizon (which I think includes Switzerland?)
Switzerland currently excluded, for refusing to continue negotiations for a new framework agreement with the EU. Not breaking an agreement, as we were alleged to have done, but simply for saying they prefer to stick to existing agreements.
To remind of the last local election voting position for Tamworth constituency.
This comprises Tamworth district, which voted in 2022, making 78% of the constituency electorate, and parts of Lichfield District, which voted in 2021, making up the remainder:
Con 53.0% Lab 35.1% Ind 8.3% LD 2.4% Grn 1.2%
So, Labour 17.9% behind on a mix of 21 and 22 local election results.
For comparison the LE positions in recent by-elections were: Uxbridge - Lab 17.1% behind on a 2022 base Selby - Lab 10.0% behind on a 2022 base.
As an estimate of how Lichfield might have voted in a 2022 LE, NEV swung 6% towards Labour between 2021 and 2022. Rebasing those votes could put Labour around 15% behind.
So, the LE indications suggest Tamworth a little easier than Uxbridge and harder than Selby for Labour.
I can't remember contrarian. Was he the one who thought Covid came from space? SD hated tories and so was ok. MrEd can fuck the fuck off and fuck off again when he gets there.
Contrarian was very anti-vax, but did have some interesting views and some interesting life experience (IIRC close family member, possibly child, with long term illness?). Unfortunately lost a bit under the Covid/vaccine postings. Kind of person you could maybe have an interesting chat with in person - or maybe even one to one online, but not so much in a public forum. He/she did return for a bit under another name, I think, but forget which.
Horizon was in the Withdrawal agreement. Not sure I buy Slow Rejoin as an option in any event. It's all slow rejoiny until you get to SM/CU which is a huge cliff to scale all at once.
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
I’ve seen evidence of people selling driving licences too, which probably explains why the standard of driving on the roads seems to have dropped significantly recently (am I imagining this, or is it just me?).
The incompetence of this government is pushing corruption into the system. Once embedded it’s difficult to remove because a few corrupt individuals drag everyone around them down with them.
There was also story the other day of organised gangs booking driving test slots and reselling them. That’s not a difficult loophole to close. There’s been plenty of cases of impersonation in driving tests over the years. A totally fake DL might be okay to get into a bar when you’re 17, but it won’t pass muster with a traffic cop who can access the actual database.
Interesting thing about this by-election: the Conservatives have a candidate there for the GE called Eddie Hughes. Unhelpfully he is the current MP for Walsall North.
They won’t want a by-election there so they’ll have to find a candidate happy to serve as a kind of interim MP
I don't think that's tenable. Hughes will essentially need to say that, if the Conservative candidate is elected, he'll step aside and let them do it at the General Election.
That's annoying for Hughes, but no other outcome is at all credible for the Conservatives. You simply can't run a campaign promising "I'll keep the seat warm for Eddie!" - it's stupid.
I didn't think Rishi Sunak would be the one to roll back Brexit but well done!
Seconded. Rejoining Horizon is good news. Following things like the Windsor Protocol and greater cooperation with France on refugees it's another step towards what has to be the ultimate medium term goal, the Pointless Brexit, one where the damage is mainly mitigated.
Yes it is good news. It’s hardly rolling back Brexit though. We have left the EU, we are not returning anytime soon. However a more collaborative approach is to be welcomed.
Yes, it's just the EU stepping back from playing silly buggers on the issue. (Not least because British science is disproportionately strong). This is where we should have been - no need to be in the EU to be in Horizon (which I think includes Switzerland?)
I think it was one of the examples where there was tremendous mockery over British 'cherry picking' by, er, seeking to negotiate.
No one was covered on glory in those years. We were just more chaotic and divided.
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
Stamped plates are easy to 3D print.
It would only need a couple of people to get the same sentence given to private banknote printers, before private plate makers give up on the idea. This is how it works in the US and the Middle East. Edit: Germany has stamped plates too.
With modern technology, it would be easy to attach RFID chips to legitimate plates.
With modern technology, you'd think it would be possible to have better cameras that can read tricked-up plates.
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
Seems like the kind of thing it would be possible to tackle through image recognition assuming* the fake plates don't generally match the make, model and colour of vehicle. Get the plod to set up some check points and bring in some pretty stiff sentences for offenders.
*I'm assuming offenders just attach a random likely-to-be-valid registration plate, not identifying a similar vehicle's plate to copy.
I would say slow transmogrification into Switzerland. Rejoin would be embarrassing to the UK and annoying to France.
One thing we should absolutely do is get that proffered annual EU-UK summit sorted. I’ve no idea why Sunak rejected it. The optics are excellent: it can be sold as positioning Britain as a peer of the bloc, rather than a supplicant. The practicalities are also helpful as it gives us an annual deadline to get meaningful collaboration programmes in place.
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
I’ve seen evidence of people selling driving licences too, which probably explains why the standard of driving on the roads seems to have dropped significantly recently (am I imagining this, or is it just me?).
The incompetence of this government is pushing corruption into the system. Once embedded it’s difficult to remove because a few corrupt individuals drag everyone around them down with them.
Yes to both imo.
A further item I would add would be camera readable VINs (and QR code) visible on the windscreen.
And some traffic police (who are 50% down on 2007 in numbers) to enforce on non-camera enforcible offences.
Interesting thing about this by-election: the Conservatives have a candidate there for the GE called Eddie Hughes. Unhelpfully he is the current MP for Walsall North.
They won’t want a by-election there so they’ll have to find a candidate happy to serve as a kind of interim MP
I don't think that's tenable. Hughes will essentially need to say that, if the Conservative candidate is elected, he'll step aside and let them do it at the General Election.
That's annoying for Hughes, but no other outcome is at all credible for the Conservatives. You simply can't run a campaign promising "I'll keep the seat warm for Eddie!" - it's stupid.
Or the Tories can let Hughes stand.
He only has to resign Walsall N if he wins aiui, so the maximum jeopardy for the whole process is 1 Tory seat.
Interesting thing about this by-election: the Conservatives have a candidate there for the GE called Eddie Hughes. Unhelpfully he is the current MP for Walsall North.
They won’t want a by-election there so they’ll have to find a candidate happy to serve as a kind of interim MP
It’s a weird situation with the boundary changes. Can they find a local activist willing to do the job for a year but then walk away?
Does one year as an MP qualify for a pension? Pretty attractive offer if it does.
Not sure if there is a minimum period of service but the benefits you'd accrue over the course of one year's service, even in a very generous pension scheme, would be pretty trivial.
Looks like 1/51st of earnings. So one year as an MP gets you £1700pa in retirement.
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
Stamped plates are easy to 3D print.
But is that still harder, in that 3d printers are not an every household item, to current methods? Even a little harder would reduce the amount.
I'd say it's about the same or maybe easier. Faking a plate effectively now requires a vinyl cutter. It's very difficult to get an authentic looking one without it. My vinyl cutter was over a grand (though I use it for other things) and you can get a very reasonable 3D printer (Creality 3v2) for 200 quid.
You can also buy fake plates online (with the reg number of choice) for less than fifty quid but the quality is highly variable so buyer beware.
Stamped plus complicated graphics might slow it down a bit. Ultimately the substantial benefits of doing it far outweigh the minute chances of being caught. On motorbike the chance of apprehension is zero as the cops can't/won't pursue so I never ride my M1000RR on its 'correct' reg.
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
I’ve seen evidence of people selling driving licences too, which probably explains why the standard of driving on the roads seems to have dropped significantly recently (am I imagining this, or is it just me?).
The incompetence of this government is pushing corruption into the system. Once embedded it’s difficult to remove because a few corrupt individuals drag everyone around them down with them.
Yes to both imo.
A further item I would add would be camera readable VINs (and QR code) visible on the windscreen.
And some traffic police (who are 50% down on 2007 in numbers) to enforce on non-camera enforcible offences.
The AI cameras are pretty good - an example of public sector productivity growth! Another is dashcam footage which is used in increasing numbers of convictions (though not in Scotland, as we don't have an online portal up here).
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
Stamped plates are easy to 3D print.
It would only need a couple of people to get the same sentence given to private banknote printers, before private plate makers give up on the idea. This is how it works in the US and the Middle East. Edit: Germany has stamped plates too.
With modern technology, it would be easy to attach RFID chips to legitimate plates.
With modern technology, you'd think it would be possible to have better cameras that can read tricked-up plates.
IIRC the ‘doctored’ plates have a polarised plastic filter on top of them, which renders them unreadable by digital CCDs.
The only way you really police it, is by having a police car on main roads, either able to view the charging camera feed or with similar equipment on board. Then the car is confiscated, and either crushed or auctioned by the police.
In London specifically, there are loads of foreign cars. It needs to be a condition of temporary import that there’s a bond paid to cover fines, and an RFID sticker attached to the car. Many of these are the Arab supercars and limos.
My prediction on Tamworth is Labour majority of 2,000.
This clearly isn't in the bag for Labour - big Tory majority last time, Uxbridge showed Labour are vulnerable to a strong campaign on a local issue, Mid Beds complicates targeting - but they ought to be odds on.
This is a seat where historically they have done quite well (2019 was a really poor result for them but they aren't without potential there), they had a very good set of local election results there in May, people do tend to use a by-election to kick the incumbent, and the circumstances of the by-election aren't particularly pretty for the Tories. So Labour should be reasonably confident.
So, how many injuries is an acceptable number to have before doing anything?
Greater than zero.
I was peripherally involved in the design of NICE, which partly has to decide what treatments can be paid for on the NHS, and hence has to weigh up "small chance of saving some life" against "large chance of making life slightly better for many people" within any budgetary level. IIRC the decision was to set a price of £20,000 (I believe it's now about £30K?) for "one year of satisfactory life", so if drug A would make you on average live a year longer without a lot of pain and side-effects, it would be approved if it cost less than £20K/year. One that on average improved life a bit for 3 months and only cost £10K probably wouldn't.
A lot of people find this chilling - "You can't measure the cost of a life!" - but I think you really have to, no matter how generous or parsimonious your budget. Deciding on the size of the budget is a quite different issue, and much more about political priorities - that's the sort of thing that keeps me interested in politics.
Of course, schoolchildren a priori have a much higher number of QALYs to lose if they get squashed and killed - or, let's not forget, and which is germane also to your point - permanently injured, than you or I do, ay our ages. Which some of us perhaps forget.
Yes, though we must not forget that construction sites are hardly risk free. How many builders lives will be lost in replacing crumbling schools?
Quite so. On the other hand, if the schools are beyond their design life, that reduces that factor. As does the use of prefabrication (which seems the only realistic way to catch up with the backlog, short of mass training and/or import of Bobs the Builder from abroad).
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
Seems like the kind of thing it would be possible to tackle through image recognition assuming* the fake plates don't generally match the make, model and colour of vehicle. Get the plod to set up some check points and bring in some pretty stiff sentences for offenders.
*I'm assuming offenders just attach a random likely-to-be-valid registration plate, not identifying a similar vehicle's plate to copy.
It’s easy enough to find a matching vehicle as you drive around & you can always verify a plate on the DVLA website.
I didn't think Rishi Sunak would be the one to roll back Brexit but well done!
Seconded. Rejoining Horizon is good news. Following things like the Windsor Protocol and greater cooperation with France on refugees it's another step towards what has to be the ultimate medium term goal, the Pointless Brexit, one where the damage is mainly mitigated.
It's good news yes. But it will take some time to feed through. Idea -> proposal -> funding is a long process and we started missing out due to uncertainty soon after the Brexit vote. New partnerships have been made in some cases (excl UK collaborators) and some people have moved due to this. It will take some time to get back to where we were - but I think we probably will, UK research is very strong in a number of areas and there are lots of people who want to work with us.
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
Seems like the kind of thing it would be possible to tackle through image recognition assuming* the fake plates don't generally match the make, model and colour of vehicle. Get the plod to set up some check points and bring in some pretty stiff sentences for offenders.
*I'm assuming offenders just attach a random likely-to-be-valid registration plate, not identifying a similar vehicle's plate to copy.
It’s easy enough to find a matching vehicle as you drive around & you can always verify a plate on the DVLA website.
Oh, so most would be passable as the same vehicle, you think? Bit of a problem then if you get a fine through the post and have to prove that it's not your vehicle as you were somewhere else (particularly if local offence).
My prediction on Tamworth is Labour majority of 2,000.
This clearly isn't in the bag for Labour - big Tory majority last time, Uxbridge showed Labour are vulnerable to a strong campaign on a local issue, Mid Beds complicates targeting - but they ought to be odds on.
This is a seat where historically they have done quite well (2019 was a really poor result for them but they aren't without potential there), they had a very good set of local election results there in May, people do tend to use a by-election to kick the incumbent, and the circumstances of the by-election aren't particularly pretty for the Tories. So Labour should be reasonably confident.
I agree. Tamworth is more likely to go Labour than Mid Beds imo. Most likely results: Mid Beds->LD gain, Tamworth->Lab gain.
The only way you really police it, is by having a police car on main roads, either able to view the charging camera feed or with similar equipment on board. Then the car is confiscated, and either crushed or auctioned by the police.
That needs a change of legislation as if they seize a vehicle now you just pay 200 quid to get it back. It's very rarely done IMO&E. I mean, if I haven't had a car seized then who the fuck has?
I didn't think Rishi Sunak would be the one to roll back Brexit but well done!
Seconded. Rejoining Horizon is good news. Following things like the Windsor Protocol and greater cooperation with France on refugees it's another step towards what has to be the ultimate medium term goal, the Pointless Brexit, one where the damage is mainly mitigated.
It's good news yes. But it will take some time to feed through. Idea -> proposal -> funding is a long process and we started missing out due to uncertainty soon after the Brexit vote. New partnerships have been made in some cases (excl UK collaborators) and some people have moved due to this. It will take some time to get back to where we were - but I think we probably will, UK research is very strong in a number of areas and there are lots of people who want to work with us.
It will be interesting to see if the terms agreed extend to future five-year funding periods - or could we see a dispute and potentially an interruption each time?
Hand One: the need to refurbish the schools estate which had as yet not killed or injured anyone but which is a high priority because buildings don't last forever.
Hand Two: gigantic huge fucking juggernaut of expense as a result of Covid measures including lockdown, furlough, PPE, younameit.
In those circumstances you deal with what is in front of you, not what might happen but has not to date. I would imagine that routinely building inspectors visit schools and make comments on structural integrity.
The ultimate problem here is that the government only funded a school rebuilding rate of 50 schools / year. That implies a school building lifetime of 650 years without a complete refurb / rebuild for an estate of 32,000 schools: Clearly an impossibility. The required rate is something like the 300-400 / annum that the DfE knew they needed a decade ago but also knew the Treasury would never fund at the time. The RAAC crisis is just the first symptom of this insanity, because RAAC was the first building material to fail at scale. Everything else is going to fail too, it’s just a matter of time.
It seems to be a pattern that Conservatives governments eat the countries seed corn & eventually someone has to pay to fix it, or we’ll have no school or hospital buildings at all.
See also virtually every other industry where the Government gets involved. We have a boom (followed by a forthcoming bust) on train building and a lot of contractors who used to work on trackside infrastructure are walking away given the lack of certainty within the market place.
And this is just stupidity because the cheapest way of doing anything in most sectors is to have a set of x,000 workers with a pipeline of work for the next X years just moving from project a to project b as a project finishes.
The data someone posted on rail electrification here vs Germany were very revealing, huge swings for us while the Germans seemed to be cracking on at the same pace each year, presumably at a fraction of the cost. This isn't a left vs right issue, surely it's just common sense!
Interesting thing about this by-election: the Conservatives have a candidate there for the GE called Eddie Hughes. Unhelpfully he is the current MP for Walsall North.
They won’t want a by-election there so they’ll have to find a candidate happy to serve as a kind of interim MP
It’s a weird situation with the boundary changes. Can they find a local activist willing to do the job for a year but then walk away?
Does one year as an MP qualify for a pension? Pretty attractive offer if it does.
Not sure if there is a minimum period of service but the benefits you'd accrue over the course of one year's service, even in a very generous pension scheme, would be pretty trivial.
Looks like 1/51st of earnings. So one year as an MP gets you £1700pa in retirement.
Hmm, I'll keep that in mind when an MP next goes on about how generous public sector pensions are (1/75th or 1/80th more common, in my experience)
If Wikipedia is correct 7/16 by-elections this parliament have led to a change in party, around 44%. That's expected to become go to 8-10 out of 19 depending on forthcoming results.
In the parliament's since 2010 the average is around 20%.
It was about a third for the 01 and 05 parliaments, and under 10% for 97.
If somebody with examples and a clear explanation can actually explain what MrEd did I am all ears. But wanting him gone because you don't like his political views is not fair.
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
Seems like the kind of thing it would be possible to tackle through image recognition assuming* the fake plates don't generally match the make, model and colour of vehicle. Get the plod to set up some check points and bring in some pretty stiff sentences for offenders.
*I'm assuming offenders just attach a random likely-to-be-valid registration plate, not identifying a similar vehicle's plate to copy.
You assume incorrectly. Just jump on Autotrader or Facebook and find a vehicle of the same model, year and colour. I always pick a vehicle at a dealer just to add an extra layer of belligerence and confusion if any enquiries are made.
The only way you really police it, is by having a police car on main roads, either able to view the charging camera feed or with similar equipment on board. Then the car is confiscated, and either crushed or auctioned by the police.
That needs a change of legislation as if they seize a vehicle now you just pay 200 quid to get it back. It's very rarely done IMO&E. I mean, if I haven't had a car seized then who the fuck has?
If I were Rishi Sunak, DA, I would appoint you Transport Commissar forthwith, on the poacher/gamekeeper principle.
Hand One: the need to refurbish the schools estate which had as yet not killed or injured anyone but which is a high priority because buildings don't last forever.
Hand Two: gigantic huge fucking juggernaut of expense as a result of Covid measures including lockdown, furlough, PPE, younameit.
In those circumstances you deal with what is in front of you, not what might happen but has not to date. I would imagine that routinely building inspectors visit schools and make comments on structural integrity.
The ultimate problem here is that the government only funded a school rebuilding rate of 50 schools / year. That implies a school building lifetime of 650 years without a complete refurb / rebuild for an estate of 32,000 schools: Clearly an impossibility. The required rate is something like the 300-400 / annum that the DfE knew they needed a decade ago but also knew the Treasury would never fund at the time. The RAAC crisis is just the first symptom of this insanity, because RAAC was the first building material to fail at scale. Everything else is going to fail too, it’s just a matter of time.
It seems to be a pattern that Conservatives governments eat the countries seed corn & eventually someone has to pay to fix it, or we’ll have no school or hospital buildings at all.
See also virtually every other industry where the Government gets involved. We have a boom (followed by a forthcoming bust) on train building and a lot of contractors who used to work on trackside infrastructure are walking away given the lack of certainty within the market place.
And this is just stupidity because the cheapest way of doing anything in most sectors is to have a set of x,000 workers with a pipeline of work for the next X years just moving from project a to project b as a project finishes.
The data someone posted on rail electrification here vs Germany were very revealing, huge swings for us while the Germans seemed to be cracking on at the same pace each year, presumably at a fraction of the cost. This isn't a left vs right issue, surely it's just common sense!
Have you been paying any attention to the last 13 years of Tory "Governing"....
I think it's reached the stage where we need a general election immediately to clear the air.
Party politically that doesn't make sense. A black swan event could catapult the Conservatives to a landslide. A war with the soon to be bonkers regime in Argentina would be just the ticket.
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
Seems like the kind of thing it would be possible to tackle through image recognition assuming* the fake plates don't generally match the make, model and colour of vehicle. Get the plod to set up some check points and bring in some pretty stiff sentences for offenders.
*I'm assuming offenders just attach a random likely-to-be-valid registration plate, not identifying a similar vehicle's plate to copy.
It’s easy enough to find a matching vehicle as you drive around & you can always verify a plate on the DVLA website.
Oh, so most would be passable as the same vehicle, you think? Bit of a problem then if you get a fine through the post and have to prove that it's not your vehicle as you were somewhere else (particularly if local offence).
A friend of mine got a fine for a car he didn't own, that didn't match any car he had ever owned, for an offence in a place he had never ever been. Unfortunately the boxes on the form to tick didn't have that option. It did have a box for 'I wasn't driving' which was true, but not what they really meant by that question.
Oh, I see Chris Pincher has resigned. Quelle dommage!
Wonder what will happen to his seat. Will anyone pinch it, d'ya think?
Now that should be a nice gain for Labour.
The Conservatives had a 43% majority over Labour in Tamworth in 2019 so on UNS even on current polls they should hold it.
However, it was Labour from 1997 to 2010 in the Blair years and it is a by election and on the 23% swing Labour got in the Selby election they would win it
It's a high swing seat with lots of volatile white-van type voters who are known for switching sides more easily than other voters. The 43% majority is a bit misleading as to how safe it is. It's really more of a marginal seat most of the time.
The only way you really police it, is by having a police car on main roads, either able to view the charging camera feed or with similar equipment on board. Then the car is confiscated, and either crushed or auctioned by the police.
That needs a change of legislation as if they seize a vehicle now you just pay 200 quid to get it back. It's very rarely done IMO&E. I mean, if I haven't had a car seized then who the fuck has?
Yes, the legislation need to be that a car with a fake plate (that doesn’t match the VIN) gets confiscated by the State. For doctored plates (matches VIN but isn’t correct), then a large fine is appropriate. Large enough to expect them to be in the London ULEZ every day for a year, perhaps £10k?
The only way you really police it, is by having a police car on main roads, either able to view the charging camera feed or with similar equipment on board. Then the car is confiscated, and either crushed or auctioned by the police.
That needs a change of legislation as if they seize a vehicle now you just pay 200 quid to get it back. It's very rarely done IMO&E. I mean, if I haven't had a car seized then who the fuck has?
If I were Rishi Sunak, DA, I would appoint you Transport Commissar forthwith, on the poacher/gamekeeper principle.
I would be very good at that. We'd have HS2 and road pricing by next Christmas. Also no VAT on bicycles and components.
To remind of the last local election voting position for Tamworth constituency.
This comprises Tamworth district, which voted in 2022, making 78% of the constituency electorate, and parts of Lichfield District, which voted in 2021, making up the remainder:
Con 53.0% Lab 35.1% Ind 8.3% LD 2.4% Grn 1.2%
So, Labour 17.9% behind on a mix of 21 and 22 local election results.
For comparison the LE positions in recent by-elections were: Uxbridge - Lab 17.1% behind on a 2022 base Selby - Lab 10.0% behind on a 2022 base.
As an estimate of how Lichfield might have voted in a 2022 LE, NEV swung 6% towards Labour between 2021 and 2022. Rebasing those votes could put Labour around 15% behind.
So, the LE indications suggest Tamworth a little easier than Uxbridge and harder than Selby for Labour.
A couple of clarifying notes, as I did these figures some time ago.
The Lichfield 2021 base was from the relevant County council wards which are partly in Tamworth constituency. Weighted, of course.
I will fully rebase with the 2023 results from both districts when I get the chance.
To remind of the last local election voting position for Tamworth constituency.
This comprises Tamworth district, which voted in 2022, making 78% of the constituency electorate, and parts of Lichfield District, which voted in 2021, making up the remainder:
Con 53.0% Lab 35.1% Ind 8.3% LD 2.4% Grn 1.2%
So, Labour 17.9% behind on a mix of 21 and 22 local election results.
For comparison the LE positions in recent by-elections were: Uxbridge - Lab 17.1% behind on a 2022 base Selby - Lab 10.0% behind on a 2022 base.
As an estimate of how Lichfield might have voted in a 2022 LE, NEV swung 6% towards Labour between 2021 and 2022. Rebasing those votes could put Labour around 15% behind.
So, the LE indications suggest Tamworth a little easier than Uxbridge and harder than Selby for Labour.
A couple of clarifying notes, as I did these figures some time ago.
The Lichfield 2021 base was from the relevant County council wards which are partly in Tamworth constituency. Weighted, of course.
I will fully rebase with the 2023 results from both districts when I get the chance.
Labour won the popular vote in Tamworth this year by 44% to 36% IIRC. After adding in the other areas it probably would have been about equal between the parties.
Tamworth is going to be a REAL test for this Labour Party. This is an unambiguously Cons v Lab fight in a tory held north-Midlands seat.
They need a 21% swing. It's a hell of an ask but if they're really serious about winning an overall majority then with c. 12 months to go it's the kind of marker they now should be setting.
Hand One: the need to refurbish the schools estate which had as yet not killed or injured anyone but which is a high priority because buildings don't last forever.
Hand Two: gigantic huge fucking juggernaut of expense as a result of Covid measures including lockdown, furlough, PPE, younameit.
In those circumstances you deal with what is in front of you, not what might happen but has not to date. I would imagine that routinely building inspectors visit schools and make comments on structural integrity.
The ultimate problem here is that the government only funded a school rebuilding rate of 50 schools / year. That implies a school building lifetime of 650 years without a complete refurb / rebuild for an estate of 32,000 schools: Clearly an impossibility. The required rate is something like the 300-400 / annum that the DfE knew they needed a decade ago but also knew the Treasury would never fund at the time. The RAAC crisis is just the first symptom of this insanity, because RAAC was the first building material to fail at scale. Everything else is going to fail too, it’s just a matter of time.
It seems to be a pattern that Conservatives governments eat the countries seed corn & eventually someone has to pay to fix it, or we’ll have no school or hospital buildings at all.
See also virtually every other industry where the Government gets involved. We have a boom (followed by a forthcoming bust) on train building and a lot of contractors who used to work on trackside infrastructure are walking away given the lack of certainty within the market place.
And this is just stupidity because the cheapest way of doing anything in most sectors is to have a set of x,000 workers with a pipeline of work for the next X years just moving from project a to project b as a project finishes.
The data someone posted on rail electrification here vs Germany were very revealing, huge swings for us while the Germans seemed to be cracking on at the same pace each year, presumably at a fraction of the cost. This isn't a left vs right issue, surely it's just common sense!
Have you been paying any attention to the last 13 years of Tory "Governing"....
Yes! On this issue Labour is actually just as much at fault, although perhaps they could argue that they were trying to deal with the poisonous legacy of Tory rail privatisation for much of the period... Our whole approach to infrastructure needs to change. We need a long term arms length and depoliticised process that can plan, raise money cheaply, and ensure adequate maintenance, free from short term meddling and political grandstanding.
So, how many injuries is an acceptable number to have before doing anything?
Greater than zero.
I was peripherally involved in the design of NICE, which partly has to decide what treatments can be paid for on the NHS, and hence has to weigh up "small chance of saving some life" against "large chance of making life slightly better for many people" within any budgetary level. IIRC the decision was to set a price of £20,000 (I believe it's now about £30K?) for "one year of satisfactory life", so if drug A would make you on average live a year longer without a lot of pain and side-effects, it would be approved if it cost less than £20K/year. One that on average improved life a bit for 3 months and only cost £10K probably wouldn't.
A lot of people find this chilling - "You can't measure the cost of a life!" - but I think you really have to, no matter how generous or parsimonious your budget. Deciding on the size of the budget is a quite different issue, and much more about political priorities - that's the sort of thing that keeps me interested in politics.
Absolutley, Nick.
You not only can measure the cost of a life, you have to. I'm glad I don't have to do it myself, it would keep me awake nights, but I acknowledge and admire those that do. It is essentially what good government is about.
Take speed limits, for example, since the topic has cropped up here. There are about 1,500 deaths on our roads each year now (way down on what it was when I passed my test in 1966, though these facts are not necessarily linked) and we could easily get that down to a few dozen if we reduce the speed limit to 5mph. Such a reductio ad absurdum makes the point.
Somebody has to decide where to draw the line, which implies evaluation of the cost of a life. Tough, but somebody really has to do it.
I always remember that the day of the Hatfield Train Crash, which killed 4 people, a family of 4 were killed in a head on collission on the Newark Bypass. This made me go and look at the relative 'value per human life saved' numbers.
In 2000 this was aproximately £3 million person on the railways and £500,000 per person on the roads.
Thanks Richard.
I suspect I'm being dumb but could you briefly explain how such a differential arises?
I really don't know. I suspect it is because there is (or maybe was) no standardised system of cost/benefit analysis across Government. So one department or organisation is using one value whilst another uses a completely different one.
Intrestingly if you google for similar numbers today you get a standardised £1.8 million so maybe someone finally got around to sorting it out.
My prediction on Tamworth is Labour majority of 2,000.
This clearly isn't in the bag for Labour - big Tory majority last time, Uxbridge showed Labour are vulnerable to a strong campaign on a local issue, Mid Beds complicates targeting - but they ought to be odds on.
This is a seat where historically they have done quite well (2019 was a really poor result for them but they aren't without potential there), they had a very good set of local election results there in May, people do tend to use a by-election to kick the incumbent, and the circumstances of the by-election aren't particularly pretty for the Tories. So Labour should be reasonably confident.
I agree. Tamworth is more likely to go Labour than Mid Beds imo. Most likely results: Mid Beds->LD gain, Tamworth->Lab gain.
It's not impossible that Tamworth and Mid Beds are Tory holds, for different reasons (very large majority and red-yellow vote splitting respectively). That would be great news for Sunak, and he doesn't really have a dog in the Rutherglen fight. I think Labour should be careful to manage expectations for Tamworth, while still enthusing voters to turn out.
Oh, I see Chris Pincher has resigned. Quelle dommage!
Wonder what will happen to his seat. Will anyone pinch it, d'ya think?
Now that should be a nice gain for Labour.
The Conservatives had a 43% majority over Labour in Tamworth in 2019 so on UNS even on current polls they should hold it.
However, it was Labour from 1997 to 2010 in the Blair years and it is a by election and on the 23% swing Labour got in the Selby election they would win it
It's a high swing seat with lots of volatile white-van type voters who are known for switching sides more easily than other voters. The 43% majority is a bit misleading as to how safe it is. It's really more of a marginal seat most of the time.
A fair point, but suburban, semi-rural and rural West Midlands are the last bastions of Johnsonian Brexitism.
The only way you really police it, is by having a police car on main roads, either able to view the charging camera feed or with similar equipment on board. Then the car is confiscated, and either crushed or auctioned by the police.
That needs a change of legislation as if they seize a vehicle now you just pay 200 quid to get it back. It's very rarely done IMO&E. I mean, if I haven't had a car seized then who the fuck has?
If I were Rishi Sunak, DA, I would appoint you Transport Commissar forthwith, on the poacher/gamekeeper principle.
I would be very good at that. We'd have HS2 and road pricing by next Christmas. Also no VAT on bicycles and components.
To remind of the last local election voting position for Tamworth constituency.
This comprises Tamworth district, which voted in 2022, making 78% of the constituency electorate, and parts of Lichfield District, which voted in 2021, making up the remainder:
Con 53.0% Lab 35.1% Ind 8.3% LD 2.4% Grn 1.2%
So, Labour 17.9% behind on a mix of 21 and 22 local election results.
For comparison the LE positions in recent by-elections were: Uxbridge - Lab 17.1% behind on a 2022 base Selby - Lab 10.0% behind on a 2022 base.
As an estimate of how Lichfield might have voted in a 2022 LE, NEV swung 6% towards Labour between 2021 and 2022. Rebasing those votes could put Labour around 15% behind.
So, the LE indications suggest Tamworth a little easier than Uxbridge and harder than Selby for Labour.
A couple of clarifying notes, as I did these figures some time ago.
The Lichfield 2021 base was from the relevant County council wards which are partly in Tamworth constituency. Weighted, of course.
I will fully rebase with the 2023 results from both districts when I get the chance.
Labour won the popular vote in Tamworth this year by 44% to 36% IIRC. After adding in the other areas it probably would have been about equal between the parties.
Not much LD or Green to squeeze here, so they're going to need some help from the Tory apathy party.
Tamworth is going to be a REAL test for this Labour Party. This is an unambiguously Cons v Lab fight in a tory held north-Midlands seat.
They need a 21% swing. It's a hell of an ask but if they're really serious about winning an overall majority then with c. 12 months to go it's the kind of marker they now should be setting.
It is a test but looking at some projections (like this one below) makes me think if they get this close it is still a sign that they will be doing well. Whilst I imagine SKS will miss the open goal of spinning losing this by 1-2 points, it would still be suggestive of a good GE for Labour
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
Seems like the kind of thing it would be possible to tackle through image recognition assuming* the fake plates don't generally match the make, model and colour of vehicle. Get the plod to set up some check points and bring in some pretty stiff sentences for offenders.
*I'm assuming offenders just attach a random likely-to-be-valid registration plate, not identifying a similar vehicle's plate to copy.
Nope, this is organised crime gangs. The plate on the car matches the make, model, colour, and year, of another car in another part of the country.
Everyone needs to make their car look unique in a photograph from the front and rear, and take such photos themselves, because when you’re in court and the prosecution has a photo of your car with your numberplate….
The only way you really police it, is by having a police car on main roads, either able to view the charging camera feed or with similar equipment on board. Then the car is confiscated, and either crushed or auctioned by the police.
That needs a change of legislation as if they seize a vehicle now you just pay 200 quid to get it back. It's very rarely done IMO&E. I mean, if I haven't had a car seized then who the fuck has?
Yes, the legislation need to be that a car with a fake plate (that doesn’t match the VIN) gets confiscated by the State. For doctored plates (matches VIN but isn’t correct), then a large fine is appropriate. Large enough to expect them to be in the London ULEZ every day for a year, perhaps £10k?
Genuine question as someone who has lived in the country a lot of my life, if your number plate is covered with sufficient mud (including boot and bonnet so as not to look too obvious) are you likely to be busted?
I know that you're supposed to keep number plates clean and clear but that's not my question, which is whether you are really likely to be busted? Or, if you're pulled over (surely pretty unlikely) just told to get a car wash?
So, how many injuries is an acceptable number to have before doing anything?
Greater than zero.
I was peripherally involved in the design of NICE, which partly has to decide what treatments can be paid for on the NHS, and hence has to weigh up "small chance of saving some life" against "large chance of making life slightly better for many people" within any budgetary level. IIRC the decision was to set a price of £20,000 (I believe it's now about £30K?) for "one year of satisfactory life", so if drug A would make you on average live a year longer without a lot of pain and side-effects, it would be approved if it cost less than £20K/year. One that on average improved life a bit for 3 months and only cost £10K probably wouldn't.
A lot of people find this chilling - "You can't measure the cost of a life!" - but I think you really have to, no matter how generous or parsimonious your budget. Deciding on the size of the budget is a quite different issue, and much more about political priorities - that's the sort of thing that keeps me interested in politics.
Absolutley, Nick.
You not only can measure the cost of a life, you have to. I'm glad I don't have to do it myself, it would keep me awake nights, but I acknowledge and admire those that do. It is essentially what good government is about.
Take speed limits, for example, since the topic has cropped up here. There are about 1,500 deaths on our roads each year now (way down on what it was when I passed my test in 1966, though these facts are not necessarily linked) and we could easily get that down to a few dozen if we reduce the speed limit to 5mph. Such a reductio ad absurdum makes the point.
Somebody has to decide where to draw the line, which implies evaluation of the cost of a life. Tough, but somebody really has to do it.
I always remember that the day of the Hatfield Train Crash, which killed 4 people, a family of 4 were killed in a head on collission on the Newark Bypass. This made me go and look at the relative 'value per human life saved' numbers.
In 2000 this was aproximately £3 million person on the railways and £500,000 per person on the roads.
Thanks Richard.
I suspect I'm being dumb but could you briefly explain how such a differential arises?
I really don't know. I suspect it is because there is (or maybe was) no standardised system of cost/benefit analysis across Government. So one department or organisation is using one value whilst another uses a completely different one.
Intrestingly if you google for similar numbers today you get a standardised £1.8 million so maybe someone finally got around to sorting it out.
"So who did the good Tories of the Tamworth Association select to replace Pincher? Eddie Hughes, the incumbent MP for Walsall North. That selection raised the possibility of a scenario whereby Hughes won the Tamworth by-election but then triggered a second contest in his current, more marginal, constituency. To avoid this outcome, the Tamworth Tories look likely to select a second candidate to fight the looming by-election contest, with Hughes still expected to fight the general next year."
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
Seems like the kind of thing it would be possible to tackle through image recognition assuming* the fake plates don't generally match the make, model and colour of vehicle. Get the plod to set up some check points and bring in some pretty stiff sentences for offenders.
*I'm assuming offenders just attach a random likely-to-be-valid registration plate, not identifying a similar vehicle's plate to copy.
You assume incorrectly. Just jump on Autotrader or Facebook and find a vehicle of the same model, year and colour. I always pick a vehicle at a dealer just to add an extra layer of belligerence and confusion if any enquiries are made.
Ah. Well in that case I guess we just fit traffic enforcement cameras with missile launchers to make sure we get the right person and save a load of paperwork
"So who did the good Tories of the Tamworth Association select to replace Pincher? Eddie Hughes, the incumbent MP for Walsall North. That selection raised the possibility of a scenario whereby Hughes won the Tamworth by-election but then triggered a second contest in his current, more marginal, constituency. To avoid this outcome, the Tamworth Tories look likely to select a second candidate to fight the looming by-election contest, with Hughes still expected to fight the general next year."
Yes it doesn't exactly help their predicament. In fact it's ludicrous isn't it? It means people would be voting for a one-off tory who is then going to have to stand down in probably less than 12 months.
The only way you really police it, is by having a police car on main roads, either able to view the charging camera feed or with similar equipment on board. Then the car is confiscated, and either crushed or auctioned by the police.
That needs a change of legislation as if they seize a vehicle now you just pay 200 quid to get it back. It's very rarely done IMO&E. I mean, if I haven't had a car seized then who the fuck has?
Yes, the legislation need to be that a car with a fake plate (that doesn’t match the VIN) gets confiscated by the State. For doctored plates (matches VIN but isn’t correct), then a large fine is appropriate. Large enough to expect them to be in the London ULEZ every day for a year, perhaps £10k?
Genuine question as someone who has lived in the country a lot of my life, if your number plate is covered with sufficient mud (including boot and bonnet so as not to look too obvious) are you likely to be busted?
I know that you're supposed to keep number plates clean and clear but that's not my question, which is whether you are really likely to be busted? Or, if you're pulled over (surely pretty unlikely) just told to get a car wash?
Depends on a few things, like if you fail the ‘attitude test’, as to how plod deals with it.
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
Stamped plates are easy to 3D print.
But is that still harder, in that 3d printers are not an every household item, to current methods? Even a little harder would reduce the amount.
Buy a printer. Charge £50 a plate you fake. Make your money back in a few days….
Interesting thing about this by-election: the Conservatives have a candidate there for the GE called Eddie Hughes. Unhelpfully he is the current MP for Walsall North.
They won’t want a by-election there so they’ll have to find a candidate happy to serve as a kind of interim MP
I don't think that's tenable. Hughes will essentially need to say that, if the Conservative candidate is elected, he'll step aside and let them do it at the General Election.
That's annoying for Hughes, but no other outcome is at all credible for the Conservatives. You simply can't run a campaign promising "I'll keep the seat warm for Eddie!" - it's stupid.
Or the Tories can let Hughes stand.
He only has to resign Walsall N if he wins aiui, so the maximum jeopardy for the whole process is 1 Tory seat.
He's already said he won't be standing in the by-election.
So, how many injuries is an acceptable number to have before doing anything?
Greater than zero.
I was peripherally involved in the design of NICE, which partly has to decide what treatments can be paid for on the NHS, and hence has to weigh up "small chance of saving some life" against "large chance of making life slightly better for many people" within any budgetary level. IIRC the decision was to set a price of £20,000 (I believe it's now about £30K?) for "one year of satisfactory life", so if drug A would make you on average live a year longer without a lot of pain and side-effects, it would be approved if it cost less than £20K/year. One that on average improved life a bit for 3 months and only cost £10K probably wouldn't.
A lot of people find this chilling - "You can't measure the cost of a life!" - but I think you really have to, no matter how generous or parsimonious your budget. Deciding on the size of the budget is a quite different issue, and much more about political priorities - that's the sort of thing that keeps me interested in politics.
Absolutley, Nick.
You not only can measure the cost of a life, you have to. I'm glad I don't have to do it myself, it would keep me awake nights, but I acknowledge and admire those that do. It is essentially what good government is about.
Take speed limits, for example, since the topic has cropped up here. There are about 1,500 deaths on our roads each year now (way down on what it was when I passed my test in 1966, though these facts are not necessarily linked) and we could easily get that down to a few dozen if we reduce the speed limit to 5mph. Such a reductio ad absurdum makes the point.
Somebody has to decide where to draw the line, which implies evaluation of the cost of a life. Tough, but somebody really has to do it.
I always remember that the day of the Hatfield Train Crash, which killed 4 people, a family of 4 were killed in a head on collission on the Newark Bypass. This made me go and look at the relative 'value per human life saved' numbers.
In 2000 this was aproximately £3 million person on the railways and £500,000 per person on the roads.
Thanks Richard.
I suspect I'm being dumb but could you briefly explain how such a differential arises?
I really don't know. I suspect it is because there is (or maybe was) no standardised system of cost/benefit analysis across Government. So one department or organisation is using one value whilst another uses a completely different one.
Intrestingly if you google for similar numbers today you get a standardised £1.8 million so maybe someone finally got around to sorting it out.
Got it, Richard. Thanks.
There’s also the socio-political aspect. A train crash is national news. Which means the political pressure to spend on preventing train crashes is much higher than car crashes.
Interesting thing about this by-election: the Conservatives have a candidate there for the GE called Eddie Hughes. Unhelpfully he is the current MP for Walsall North.
They won’t want a by-election there so they’ll have to find a candidate happy to serve as a kind of interim MP
I don't think that's tenable. Hughes will essentially need to say that, if the Conservative candidate is elected, he'll step aside and let them do it at the General Election.
That's annoying for Hughes, but no other outcome is at all credible for the Conservatives. You simply can't run a campaign promising "I'll keep the seat warm for Eddie!" - it's stupid.
Or the Tories can let Hughes stand.
He only has to resign Walsall N if he wins aiui, so the maximum jeopardy for the whole process is 1 Tory seat.
He's already said he won't be standing in the by-election.
No serious candidate is going to want to fight a by-election where if they pull off a miraculous win they'd have to stand down about 12 months later. Bit of a farce from the Tories.
To remind of the last local election voting position for Tamworth constituency.
This comprises Tamworth district, which voted in 2022, making 78% of the constituency electorate, and parts of Lichfield District, which voted in 2021, making up the remainder:
Con 53.0% Lab 35.1% Ind 8.3% LD 2.4% Grn 1.2%
So, Labour 17.9% behind on a mix of 21 and 22 local election results.
For comparison the LE positions in recent by-elections were: Uxbridge - Lab 17.1% behind on a 2022 base Selby - Lab 10.0% behind on a 2022 base.
As an estimate of how Lichfield might have voted in a 2022 LE, NEV swung 6% towards Labour between 2021 and 2022. Rebasing those votes could put Labour around 15% behind.
So, the LE indications suggest Tamworth a little easier than Uxbridge and harder than Selby for Labour.
Tamworth (third up) and Lichfield (all up) voted in 2023. I don't really understand your rationale for not using the latest votes.
Without reading it let me guess the gist: we just need to believe in ourselves more so that we can capitalise on the benefits of Brexit?
I used to read the Telegraph but I've given up. Not so much its politics per se but the reactionary nature of it now. Take today's front page. 5 of the 6 pieces on the front are reactionary anti-woke. There's even one having a dig about climate change. It's not that there aren't news stories embedded within. It's that they are dressed up in increasingly embittered language by old people raging against the dying of the light.
A neat summation of the current government. Notable in the Rees-Mogg spat the other day was that he criticised the lack of things being done by the government. Parliament sits with short days because there is nothing being done by the government.
The public are clear that the country is falling apart all around them. Yet the government not only does nothing, it seems to be it absolute denial that is happening. Note the RAAC scandal - Sunak insists that he increased funding as he cut it, that a lack of complaints by Starmer means there is no problem, and anyway most students won't be eaten by the shark therefore there is no shark.
I asked my Dad, who is a buildings surveyor working for a local authority, about the concrete. He was quite dismissive, feeling it's been blown out of proportion by structural engineers who stand to gain masses of work by the crisis. I tend to agree.
He is exactly right, people keep using the term "crumbling" when talking about Schools. How many school buildings have collapsed, how many injuries have occured?
Er… how many injuries is an acceptable number to have before doing anything?
You have to balance risk and cost (not just financial but also the disruption to education, etc)
Yeah but it's the same kind of solely capitalist-driven argument which led to the Zeebrugge ferry disaster in which 193 people died or, indeed, Aberfan in which 116 school children were crushed / suffocated to death whilst at school along with 28 adults.
The cost here is disrupted education for children. That needs to be factored in vs the risk of a localised collapse.
A localised collapse? As opposed to what? Every school building collapsing at once? Don't worry, kids, when your roof collapses on you, it will only be your class. 3B down the hall will be fine.
There is an ever-present risk of deaths due to gas explosions, but we're not in a hurry to turn off the supply.
Comments
It seems to be a pattern that Conservatives governments eat the countries seed corn & eventually someone has to pay to fix it, or we’ll have no school or hospital buildings at all.
Just to clarify, I was never a full-on professional who had to win to eat. I started when I was made redundant to see if I could supplement my pension sufficiently to avoid the necessity of returning to full-time work. I used £20k of my redundancy payout as a betting bank. Fifteen years later, when I retired from serious punting, I still had it, plus a wealth of exciting and sometimes amusing experiences.
There is little to beat the thrill of collecting when a well-researched winner guys in!
A system displaying if your ship was/was not watertight, on the bridge is not a new thing. Submarines had this before WWI.
IIRC, such as system was mandated after the Herald Of Free Enterprise disaster.
Reginald Baker designed many of the landing ships used in WWII and since. He used as a design principle that if the vehicle deck was open to the sea, the ship should have sufficient stability to survive.
And this is just stupidity because the cheapest way of doing anything in most sectors is to have a set of x,000 workers with a pipeline of work for the next X years just moving from project a to project b as a project finishes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_East_Staffordshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1990s
The obvious choice is 19 October to go with Mid Beds, simply to have the bad news (assuming it is bad news) on one day.
However, there might be a case for a different date as the red-on-gold tussle in Mid Beds is quite helpful for the blues, and having Tamworth on the same day does tend to help the Lib Dems by diverting Labour resource (Lib Dems clearly won't go all out for Tamworth, but Labour clearly will).
The two seats aren't all that far apart (about 80 miles) so it's a choice as to which to go to for a lot of activists (in a way which it isn't for Rutherglen - there might be a few Labour activists mulling whether to go to Rutherglen or Beds but for most the choice is pretty clear based on convenience).
If someone dies I think it's fair, otherwise I'd say anyone should.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/06/ulez-speed-cameras-number-plates-doctored-by-drivers/
DoT needs to move over to a stamped plate system as soon as possible, given all of the traffic schemes that are using plate reading cameras to hand out fines.
https://twitter.com/alexpartridge87/status/1699705499438973348
Interesting thing about this by-election: the Conservatives have a candidate there for the GE called Eddie Hughes. Unhelpfully he is the current MP for Walsall North.
They won’t want a by-election there so they’ll have to find a candidate happy to serve as a kind of interim MP
MRDA
There should certainly be a slightly more formal timetable. The convention is to move the writ within 3 months (although occasionally, normally when a General Election is imminent even that's not met). But that's quite a long time for an area to go unrepresented when there's a fair extent to which it's just tactical by the incumbent party.
In our Morrison shelter with my mother, aunt and little sister!
Wasn't your grandad evacuated? I thought most children in East London were! My uncle in Grays was.
The incompetence of this government is pushing corruption into the system. Once embedded it’s difficult to remove because a few corrupt individuals drag everyone around them down with them.
That's where we are going.
With modern technology, it would be easy to attach RFID chips to legitimate plates.
Statements
Albemarle, E.
25 years of experience in industrial design and packaging conducted in Europe & the USA. 12 years have been spent farming in East Sussex.
My aim would be to contribute to the understanding of creative arts sector as well as contemporary knowledge of agricultural, land & environmental issues.
Stood in the house from 1988 to 1999 now in my late 50’s would like to contribute as in the past as a Cross Bench Peer.
Aldington, L.
My career was in banking, since which I have written books on Landscape gardening and two ancestors. Currently I am working on Devolution in England. Together with a loose team of knowledgeable people, we have looked at the hurdles and concerns, what structure might work, consequences for public funding and sources of investment. The topic is vital for our country’s future. It will come before the House frequently, and I would like to contribute.
Braybrooke, L.
I am the marketing director of an established British luxury brand and have spent the last twenty years working in the internet and technology sector, from small start-ups to multinational companies. With my experience, I would be able to contribute on a wide range of issues in these fields which I feel would complement the make-up of the House. I am a political independent and would regularly attend the House.
Carnarvon, E.
I have long experience in working in the rural economy at Highclere including farming and tourism so interested in the challenges facing these industries. Also part of a new spirits brand with USA partners exporting from UK distillery.
I am politically centrist and see that the best way forward for the UK is to give up the dogma of recent years and use the best ideas from both main parties.
Chorley, L.
I would make a material contribution using my professional IT expertise, personal interests and experience.
I have made public-sector IT projects work nationally and internationally for over 30 years, effecting Digital-Transformation in organisations by applying new technologies like AI, to safely improve public services: this experience may be under-represented in the House.
Personally, I worked for 5 years in Asia-Pacific, have long-standing interests in built heritage and the environment, and a multi-generational experience of neurodiversity.
De Clifford, L.
My aspirations continue to be a committed independent, and effective member of the house. I am the Chief Operating and Finance Officer for a large veterinary group and president of the Veterinary Management Group. I bring expertise and experience in animal welfare, food production, and safety, leadership development, and business management. I have an open mindset and the ability to listen, evaluate and understand thus bringing a broad perspective to the workings of the House.
Stuart Dickson seemed to despise this place anyway and I did wonder why he posted as long as he did although his polling analysis was always interesting.
JOHN CRICHTON, EARL OF ERNE
1. I come from Northern Ireland and I am interested in UK Politics and the retention of the Union of all and constituent parts.
2. I have over 30 years experience of residential property in England and tourism/hospitality sector in N. Ireland.
3. I wish to play my part in the House of Lords as I believe its value as a revising Chamber.
4. Involved in cross community border charity.
Meston, L.
Practising barrister from 1973 (QC 1996) until 1999 (mainly family law). Then a circuit judge until 2020. Now part-time judge.
Second in last Crossbench by-election.
Active in Lords until 1999, latterly a Crossbencher.
Particularly involved in Bills concerning children, domestic abuse, divorce.
Committees included Medical Ethics, Statutory Instruments, Consolidation Bills, Personal Bills.
Believe strongly in effective scrutiny of legislation and the value of Crossbench independence and objectivity.
Would commit fully to involvement in the Lords.
Rochdale, V.
Jonathan Rochdale MSc
Award-winning education entrepreneur: 24 years, developed scientifically proven techniques to help professionals, students, and dyslexics learn more efficiently and quickly.
Masters: Finance, trade, shipping. Specific focus on China. Understanding of Chinese language and East Asian culture.
Front-line public service: Metropolitan Police, 12 years (commendations for bravery and investigative ability).
Champion: Dyslexia, mental health – depression, bipolar, addiction (all four from lived experiences). Social justice, environment, and climate.
Fully committed, independent and London-based.
Sempill, L.
As a past member of the Crossbenches, I would be privileged to have the opportunity to return and participate fully in the business of the House.
In the intervening years I have had a brief flirtation with Scottish politics, since when I have been actively engaged in Scottish Ancestral Tourism. (https://www.clanchieftours.co.uk/)
I am in good health and now live a short train ride from Westminster.
Somerleyton, L
25 years experience and entrepreneurship in hospitality and in East Anglia, 17 years’ practical experience in rural affairs, agriculture, environment, tourism and heritage. Founder WildEast Foundation – a community stakeholder driven regional nature recovery network with the aim of turning 20% of East Anglia wild.
Other interests, Middle Eastern and European affairs, education and climate crisis.
President of three local charities, vice chair of the Historic Houses eastern region committee, recently became a DL.
Southampton, L.
No statement
Walpole, L.
Politics has been part of my life since childhood
Work: inter alia, photographer, writer, financial analyst
Education: MA, PhD upgrade
Fluent French
Would commit to being a full-time working peer
Turkey and Israel are in Horizon, though.
This comprises Tamworth district, which voted in 2022, making 78% of the constituency electorate, and parts of Lichfield District, which voted in 2021, making up the remainder:
Con 53.0%
Lab 35.1%
Ind 8.3%
LD 2.4%
Grn 1.2%
So, Labour 17.9% behind on a mix of 21 and 22 local election results.
For comparison the LE positions in recent by-elections were:
Uxbridge - Lab 17.1% behind on a 2022 base
Selby - Lab 10.0% behind on a 2022 base.
As an estimate of how Lichfield might have voted in a 2022 LE, NEV swung 6% towards Labour between 2021 and 2022. Rebasing those votes could put Labour around 15% behind.
So, the LE indications suggest Tamworth a little easier than Uxbridge and harder than Selby for Labour.
That's annoying for Hughes, but no other outcome is at all credible for the Conservatives. You simply can't run a campaign promising "I'll keep the seat warm for Eddie!" - it's stupid.
No one was covered on glory in those years. We were just more chaotic and divided.
*I'm assuming offenders just attach a random likely-to-be-valid registration plate, not identifying a similar vehicle's plate to copy.
One thing we should absolutely do is get that proffered annual EU-UK summit sorted. I’ve no idea why Sunak rejected it. The optics are excellent: it can be sold as positioning Britain as a peer of the bloc, rather than a supplicant. The practicalities are also helpful as it gives us an annual deadline to get meaningful collaboration programmes in place.
A further item I would add would be camera readable VINs (and QR code) visible on the windscreen.
And some traffic police (who are 50% down on 2007 in numbers) to enforce on non-camera enforcible offences.
He only has to resign Walsall N if he wins aiui, so the maximum jeopardy for the whole process is 1 Tory seat.
You can also buy fake plates online (with the reg number of choice) for less than fifty quid but the quality is highly variable so buyer beware.
Stamped plus complicated graphics might slow it down a bit. Ultimately the substantial benefits of doing it far outweigh the minute chances of being caught. On motorbike the chance of apprehension is zero as the cops can't/won't pursue so I never ride my M1000RR on its 'correct' reg.
https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/news/motoring-news/uks-first-free-standing-ai-road-safety-camera/
The only way you really police it, is by having a police car on main roads, either able to view the charging camera feed or with similar equipment on board. Then the car is confiscated, and either crushed or auctioned by the police.
In London specifically, there are loads of foreign cars. It needs to be a condition of temporary import that there’s a bond paid to cover fines, and an RFID sticker attached to the car. Many of these are the Arab supercars and limos.
This clearly isn't in the bag for Labour - big Tory majority last time, Uxbridge showed Labour are vulnerable to a strong campaign on a local issue, Mid Beds complicates targeting - but they ought to be odds on.
This is a seat where historically they have done quite well (2019 was a really poor result for them but they aren't without potential there), they had a very good set of local election results there in May, people do tend to use a by-election to kick the incumbent, and the circumstances of the by-election aren't particularly pretty for the Tories. So Labour should be reasonably confident.
Network Rail has admitted in court its H&S failings over the Stonehaven derailment.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/sep/07/network-rail-admits-health-and-safety-failings-over-fatal-stonehaven-crash
https://www.thenational.scot/news/23773704.network-rail-pleads-guilty-stonehaven-case-safety-failures/
In the parliament's since 2010 the average is around 20%.
It was about a third for the 01 and 05 parliaments, and under 10% for 97.
Then 50% for the 92 and 1/3 for 87.
It took him ages to get them off his back.
The Lichfield 2021 base was from the relevant County council wards which are partly in Tamworth constituency. Weighted, of course.
I will fully rebase with the 2023 results from both districts when I get the chance.
They need a 21% swing. It's a hell of an ask but if they're really serious about winning an overall majority then with c. 12 months to go it's the kind of marker they now should be setting.
Intrestingly if you google for similar numbers today you get a standardised £1.8 million so maybe someone finally got around to sorting it out.
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1699717961542520949?s=20
Everyone needs to make their car look unique in a photograph from the front and rear, and take such photos themselves, because when you’re in court and the prosecution has a photo of your car with your numberplate….
I know that you're supposed to keep number plates clean and clear but that's not my question, which is whether you are really likely to be busted? Or, if you're pulled over (surely pretty unlikely) just told to get a car wash?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/pincher-quits-and-triggers-another-by-election/