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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My prediction: Ukip to gain 100+ seats and get a big result
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My prediction: Ukip to gain 100+ seats and get a big result in South Shields
Talking with party activists of all colours last night whose judgement I respect I believe that Ukip are set to do better in today’s local elections than the predictions.
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Three in four believe those accused of sexual assaults should be granted anonymity
The Independent poll finds strong public support for the controversial view that suspects in sex cases should enjoy the same right to anonymity as defendants
"The Independent poll finds strong public support for the controversial view that suspects in sex cases should enjoy the same right to anonymity as defendants"
I'm not surprised. This is turning into a Kafkaesque nightmare for some very old men where natural justice has taken leave of its senses. The age of the accused their reputations and the time which has elapsed shows in relief an unfairness which has long been endemic in the system.
I feel pretty sure that not only will these people be found not guilty but the humiliation of the police will be long lasting even dwarfing the 'cash for questions' and Burrell fiascos
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/iqiykloo1y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-010513.pdf
I think UKIP will come close in South Shields but not win, and will gain 150 seats. Tories losing lots of council seats, Labour a bit below expectations (NOC though Labour largest in Notts, I suspect - the Indies will be slaughtered), LibDems not as bad as they fear.
Taken together with Miliband's fiasco on the economy this week, it is an intriguing insight into what will happen two years from today...
Try not to defect to the Loonies at the party tonight
That said, this last week has been another demonstration of why Labour made a major error in choosing Ed as leader back in 2010. He is not the right man to front a campaign. He looks and sounds wrong, and lacks presence and authority. He is the archetypal policy developer; not the face of a political party.
It does look like Labour have had around ±2 points shaved off their lead, the Tories flat - with UKIP the beneficiaries.
South Shields does represent a cost free way of voters 'sending a message' to the three major parties who they are all cheesed off with - Labour's (not so local) uninspiring 'Mam' replacing the parachuted in carpet bagger off to pastures new in New York....the Conservatives 'local lass' who lives in London...the Lib Dem from Welwyn Garden City...
As the Grauniad observes:
"A strong showing by Ukip in South Shields, which was held by David Miliband from 2001 until he announced his retirement in March, would show that the party presents a grave threat to all parties. Polls have shown that, while the Tories are the main victim of the Ukip surge, former Labour voters are also defecting."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/01/ukip-bloody-nose-labour-byelection
As to the locals, UKIP may do well in votes, but not so well in seats - if the Conservatives have got their 'lower council tax with Tories message across they might limit the damage...we live in interesting times...
"That said, this last week has been another demonstration of why Labour made a major error in choosing Ed as leader back in 2010."
And there lies the problem. An election which Labour should walk for all the reasons you mention could actually go horribly wrong. From a pretty shocking but largely unnoticed performance last week to an election campaign where he could become a laughing stock has to be a worry.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10031650/Double-dip-may-be-erased-but-no-recovery-until-2015-says-NIESR.html
Local activists will have a very good idea of which wards they face a strong challenge from the Lib Dems, etc, but to an extent they are just guessing when it comes to UKIP. So Tory activists won't know in which wards it is most important to get their message across.
From what people have said on here, I think the unknown is turnout. If new UKIP voters do bother to go out and vote, and turnout is higher, then they would do very well. The base level of turnout in local elections, and by-elections in safe Labour seats, is fairly low.
"Unless Canavan and his non-SNP colleagues recant, or Salmond changes tack, it will be impossible for Yes Scotland to line up behind Salmond on his currency and monetary policy – including the vexed issue of relying on a "foreign" central bank in London - in next year's referendum campaign."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/scottish-independence-blog/2013/may/01/scottish-independence-currency-conflict
At each council election since 2010, the media and pundits have forecast heavy Tory losses which have not happened. I expect the Tories will lose council seats and control of some councils but would not be surprised if they are not as bad as some have predicted. I expect Labour to underwhelm us with their gains and the LibDems yet again to fail to live up to their own rhetoric.
The UKIP results will be the key thing. If they only take seats where "Mr Angry of this parish" lives then the Tories will be kicked hard. If they take seats where "the political class don't care about us" then Labour will also get a few shocks. Turnout will be the key.
I think the tories will take the biggest hit but all three parties will be hurt and Labour in particular will find a very much reduced majority in South Shields where UKIP will come a good second, well ahead of the tories.
I can't believe that the Lib Dems will survive unscathed, their polling is just too poor. I think UKIP will knock them into 4th on share of the vote and they will lose at least 150 councillors, maybe more.
My estimates of tory losses has been creeping up and I think they will now lose 400+ seats.
Labour will make the most gains , probably over 350, but their success will be overshadowed by UKIP.
The mold may not have been broken yet but the patina of cracks will be obvious.
"One thing that’s clear is that the purples are doing particularly well with working class voters – the national polling points to serious inroads with the C2DE’s of which there are many in South Shields."
You are absolutely right. These are the people that Labour used to get elected in 1997 and then ignored them - especially when they saw nigh unrestricted immigration almost overtake their communities and change their culture.
Hence the rise of BNP as a repository for their protest vote - but some of the aspects of BNP were not to their taste, but Labour did not listen to them (called them racists) and ignored their concerns especially when immigrants appeared to gain preference in social housing.
The C2DEs have been most affected by technology change and globalisation which has eliminated many of the simpler white and blue collar jobs.
This was seen at Redcar in 2010 when their protest vote went to the LDs. However, in general they are aghast at the lack of leadership, common sense and firm direction of all three parties (incidentally many of them backed Mrs Thatcher and her funeral will have reminded them of her leadership).
So UKIP is listening to them and will be a repository for their protest. Whether UKIP can retain them in 2015 remains to be seen. It will be interest to see what happens to this alliance of C2DEs and ex-Thatcherite Cons.
I
http://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/local-news/video-candidate-profile-karen-allen-conservative-1-5631541?showResult=true&pollContentId=7.142033
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4911532/Plain-cigarette-packets-plan-abandoned-by-David-Cameron.html
Tory chiefs fear losing more than 600 seats due to anti-EU party UKIP’s soaring popularity as a protest to Westminster.
But it emerged last night that Labour may also fall short of their target of at least 400 gains.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4911663/Cameron-EU-referendum-law-plan.html#ixzz2S765CPUc
Let the ramping begin continue!
What is noticeable in Essex is the sheer number of candidates.Talking with a group yesterday, while watching county cricket ..... therefore almost by definition all of us were OAPs, I was struck by the fact that almost everyone had at least 4 candidates in their divisions, and some, like me, as many as 6.
If I'm wrong, and UKIP do well in seats, I suspect that many in both Tory and Labour camps are going to regret their attitude to AV.
At the moment I can't see them doing nearly as well in the GE but who knows? It is not just tories that are cheesed off with politics, the options are terrible and the Lib Dems have got what they wished for, losing the protest vote as a result.
Interesting times and unpredictable one's too.
It is hard to see the tories getting more than 30% if UKIP is more than 16%. I also think there is not a chance that Labour will get anything like the 39% they are averaging with Yougov. They are likely to be down nearer 35%. I can see UKIP getting more than 20% today with the Lib Dems very badly squeezed as well, down to the very low teens.
*chuckles*
Labour is well organised and is certain to increase on it's 52% that they got in the last election , but while UKIP has not contested this seat since 2001 the BNP got 2300 votes or 6% and many or most of these folks will defect to UKIP...in a low turnout of around 25% UKIP doesn't need too many votes to come in a poor second
I was up in Shields on Tuesday night for the UKIP meeting that gathered around 200 enthusiastic supporters.......200 isn't too many , is it ?
UKIP to win about 150 seats - Shadsy's 6/4 against 100+ is very backable.
They should score around 20% of the vote in S Shields...which would be just dandy! :-)
According to the BBC they already have 15 seats but I believe they only won 7 of those with the other 8 coming from defections so I don't know if those particular seats go UKIP they will be treated as gains or not.
As the locals will no doubt show.
But there is also another angle. As people may remember, a dear friend of mine took his life a couple of months ago. Although I cannot be sure what was going through his head in those last hours and minutes, I knew him well enough to give a good guess.
As a child, he went to went to a boarding school in the southern hemisphere where he was subjected to some fairly hideous sexual and physical abuse. I do not know the full details, but in my opinion that abuse led to a series of long-term decisions that ended with him taking his own life.
Historic abuse is important, and still effects people today. There was/is a court case (I am unsure of the status - he would not talk about it), and I can only hope that the people responsible are found guilty and rot in hell.
He was interviewed for the case a few years ago after complaints from others, and sadly dredging up the events did little to help him. For this reason I always avoided talking to him about what happened; both myself and Mrs J wish we had, as talking to friends might have helped. The little we do know is rather hideous and upsetting. We should have been more proactive in helping and listening.
I cannot really express how much the events of his childhood effected his later life. In many ways it shaped his character, his sexuality, and his relationships with family and friends.
As a society we have decided that someone older having sex with a 15 year-old is rape. That is the case if it happened yesterday or thirty years ago. This covers all eventualities, from the bastards who abused my friend and others, to an infatuated teenager with a crush on a famous star, and regardless of harm done.
S Shields Lab 58% UKIP 26%
Locals Actual vote share Con 30 Lab 25 UKIP 18 LD 17
Seats Con -450 Lab + 380 UKIP + 60 LD - 60 ( around 60 fewer seats because of boundary changes .
Bah, Labour will easily hold South Shields and then claim they've managed to 'fight off' UKIP and heroically retain a seat they've had since Claudius was emperor.
Elsewhere, it's just a question of the scale of the kicking the blues and perhaps the yellows get, and whether it's better (in relative terms) for Labour or UKIP.
Tarletan, there are Labour strongholds that are totally resistant to UKIP - those with lots of middle class's public sector workers/and or big BME populations, but South Shields is quite different. UKIP won 22% in Rotherham, and should do better here. They'll get most people who voted Con/Lib Dem/BNP in 2010, plus some Labour voters and non-voters.
Think UKIP will do a lot better than 60 though. Anecdotally reports coming in from shire MPs that in canvassing they have been haemorraging support to the kippers.
A Labour majority of 4518 in South Shields, Ukip on 28% share in second place.
Councils: con down 350, Labour up 250, UKIP up 150, Lib Dems down 100.
The complete dimwits seemed to think a five minute PPB about the Council Tax mitigated the weeks and months of banging on about welfare, immigration and Europe. An entertaining if brainless attempt to spin away the nasty party 'master strategy'. Almost as if they finally realise it's not going to be a triumph for the fops.
LOL
33% in South Shields ? nah , you're deluding yourself ; they only got 27 % in a lib/tory stronghold of Eastleigh
They only got 12% in Labour strongholds like Middlesbro and Barnsley
The UKIP reps in Shields told me they were ''HOPING '' for 20%
On a walk around the village yesterday, I saw one Labour billboard.
We're going to the polling station in a few minutes. We'll see if apathy reigns...
I completely agree; childhood abuse is a major factor in depression and addiction later in life.
What I struggle with is whether there can be any sort of fair trial 46 years after the event, when there can be little solid evidence, unless there are supporting credible witnesses.
Interesting because it's the same UKIP candidate as South Shields. You can't really say he's a changed man since November and Middlesbrough, so it's a fairly good measure of how much UKIP may have advanced since then and how big a threat they will be in any possible future by-elections of the same type of makeup where Farage probably still hopes he can finally get a seat sooner or later.
Cornwall is infested with the yellow peril. The frontline is Harpenden !!
The Rotherham By Election is a VERY bad indicator of UKIP in south shields
1/ Firstly , because the Labour MP did not die in office , but resigned due to accusatiions of corruption
2/ Secondly , there was in Rotherham the outragous case of the 3 non white kids taken away from their UKIP foster parents that rightly outraged the British sense of fair play and decency and motivated folks to vote for UKIP in protest ; there is nothing like that happening in S Shields
The By Election in nearby Middlesbrough is the best indicator of how this election will turnout
UKIP coming in at a very poor second place
Bermuda and other British overseas territories with financial centres have signed agreements on sharing tax information, the Treasury has said.
The move follows similar recent deals with Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man.
The move is aimed at tracking down banking clients who escape paying taxes by hiding their money overseas.
It comes amid an international drive against tax evasion and the use of tax havens......
Other British overseas territories involved include the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Anguilla, Montserrat and the Turks and Caicos Islands .
They will pass on bank account details, such as names, addresses, dates of birth, account numbers, account balances and payment details.
They will share data with both the UK tax authorities and those in France, Germany, Italy and Spain.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22374923
For Locals same forecast as last weeekend;
Con -314,Lab +218,LD -3,UKIP +98
The Tories under Dave seem largely to have forgotten that they are not social democrats. There is no meaningful challenge to the ever-growing state, the entitlements mentality. There is some good progress on education. But overall iwe have seen a coninuation of the deficit spendy status quo ante.
And the Kippers are angry about this. There is a sizable vote for a party that will be reactionary. Two fingers to the EU, to bankers, to the bien-pensant lefty intelligentsia, to PC nonsense, to nannyism, etc.
If the Tories could ditch Dave and their social democrat tendency and the Kippers could mature from a protest party there might be the germ of a populist centre right party with decent prospects.
The split of the right is wholly Dave's fault for being an utter paintywaist.
Early attempts by LibDems to vote repelled - Dressed as nuns and young mums on the school run with contraband M&S vegetarian meals in their buggies !!
Rumours of an escape attempt by yellow peril big cheeses in an attic built glider and a tunnel under Waitrose are being investigated. All pommel horses are being verified by a friendly vet !!
They shall not pass !!
S Shields Lab 55% UKIP 25%
Locals Seat Changes Con -314,Lab +218,LD -3 UKIP +98'
Vote shares (actual local) Con 35%,Lab 22%,LD 19%, UKIP 21%.
Defences (not taking into account defections after being elected for another party. So the party who won the seat when these Cllrs were elected)
64 Conservatives
29 Labour
20 LibDems
3 Greens
2 Scottish Independents
99 out of 118 are caused by resignations.
They only managed to attract 200 enthusiastic supporters to their recent meeting in S Shields
It's hardly surprising that UKIP managed to get 27% in a Lib/Con stronghold of eastleigh
His combination of arrogance and insecurity isn't good for a party leader.
The French have the bleakest economic outlook, but are most supportive of a Eurozone-wide wealth tax to cover the costs of any future bailouts
Poll covered voters in GB, Germany, France, Sweden, Finland, Denmark & Norway. Significant numbers would vote to exit the EU.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/05/01/french-public-has-bleakest-economic-outlook/
Tims line UKIP only threat to tories
Now we have labour voter number 2 Tarleton appear talking down the UKIP chance, has Labour HQ changed tack and forgot to inform its drones or do I smell a soupcon of trouser drenching fear in the labour camp?
Time will tell how accurate you are. I would have thought Rotherham would be a pretty good guide, especially as the bandwagon has rolled on a lot since then.
What about turnout? Is my bet on less than 35% safe?
Household debt to GDP in the Netherlands is above 200% - the only other places with as high levels of debt are the UK, Sweden and the Netherlands.
My prediction of 117 seat gain for UKIP still stands.
OK, but not spectacular, for Labour (assuming they win South Shields)
The story will be UKIP, though. As David L pointed out below, that's Very Bad News for the Tories going forward. Up to a certain threshold (around 15%?) the Tories are easily the most damaged by the UKIP rise, obviously.
Tim's projected vote shares look about right, Labour 35% ish, Con 30% ish, Lib Dem and UKIP around 15% each.
House-prices in the posh areas match The Midlands. New-builds in the centre can be bought for less than £150, 000 (two bedrooms).
For Sarf Luhndahn prices you can get a nice piece of property in Parklaan (with "Private Banking" down the road). The food is crap though....
* Efnick innit!
The Tories to have a poor time in their heartlands. Anecdotally I hear they are struggling in the shires (particularly Bucks) as they've never had to work them hard before, don't have the team or structure for a fight, and are losing activists fast.
So UKIP to do well in these areas, but not quite to make the breakthroughs predicted elsewhere. Labour to make gains but underwhelm as a result of UKIP being much stronger in the areas where Labour are non-existant.
Lib Dems to do badly, but not quite the wipe-outs of 2011 and 2012 as UKIP increase will help them in areas facing off against Tories, and due to far smarter handling of local messaging while in Government, viz Eastleigh.
Something like UKIP +120 Con -400 Lab +300 LD - 80
Multiple leaflets from each of Tories, Lib Dems, Labour, Green. A few door knocks (the Tory in particular was very nice but still A Tory, as I politely informed her).
That's what we "floating voters" get, eh!
Not sure who will win - LDs sitting on the fence over City wide parking permit scheme, along with all the others. I would be staggered if UKIP won here - and surprised if the LD clung on; could be a Tory gain -will sit on fence and say I don't know.
Bristol count tomorrow, result by 4 pm.
South Shields - UKIP within 2K, but Lab hold.
They've peaked too early - for Ukip and Labour.
Labour has increased it's vote % in the last 7 By Elections , even when they lost in Eastleigh , and short of a miracle will increase again in S Shields from 52% to , I suspect ,around 65%
Seems a bit slow and rubbish to me, but there we are.
I suppose Davies will appeal to the same type of voters who are now considering voting UKIP. And he has the advantage of incumbency (and so being well known to the electorate)