Just because there's been a decent postal vote return in South Shields, it doesn't necessarily mean that Labour has done well; there was a decent return in Bradford West too. That said, I remain sceptical that the lengthening in the UKIP price on Betfair and the opening of postal votes were entirely unrelated.
In terms of predictions for S Shields, I'd be surprised if Labour do poll a better share than last time. UKIP represent a threat to them too, as just as there's no cost at a national level to Tories protesting by voting UKIP locally, so there's no cost to Labour supporters protesting that way too.
The Tories under Dave seem largely to have forgotten that they are not social democrats. There is no meaningful challenge to the ever-growing state, the entitlements mentality. There is some good progress on education. But overall iwe have seen a coninuation of the deficit spendy status quo ante.
And the Kippers are angry about this. There is a sizable vote for a party that will be reactionary. Two fingers to the EU, to bankers, to the bien-pensant lefty intelligentsia, to PC nonsense, to nannyism, etc.
If the Tories could ditch Dave and their social democrat tendency and the Kippers could mature from a protest party there might be the germ of a populist centre right party with decent prospects.
The split of the right is wholly Dave's fault for being an utter paintywaist.
An all too infrequent post these days from Patrick, but definitely worth repeating in my view as it says all that needs to be said about Dave and most of the Tories in his Cabinet.
A desperately disappointing bunch who simply can't cut it.
I've just noticed that France's unemployment rate is only 0.8 percentage points beneath the UK's worst unemployment during Thatcher. The Eurozone as a whole is 0.8 percentage points above it.
I'll decide in the ballot box. If it was a GE I'd vote CON, but UKIP are the only party that are going to be able to run Labour anywhere close in my ward I think, and they are opposed to HS2. HS2 runs straight through the stables we keep the horses in at. For this Local I am waivering in my head.
I'm in a safe tory seat (leafy Hampshire/surrey borders), so feel fine for making the tories squirm a bit. No one bothered to knock on my door...
Not all economists, but certainly those that boil everything down to rational choices by economic actors - people, Governments, businesses (what you might call Rightwing economics, stemming from Hayek, popularised by, ahem, certain politicians in the West in the 80s).
The beauty of treating every decision as a transaction is that you can assign everything a numerical value (monetary, or a proxy like "utility") and easily formulate mathematical analyses for every decision (even how much leisure time people spend, whether they have children, how illness affects them).
In that way, economics starts looking like a 'real' hard science with neat theories and mathematically testable predictions, so you can see the attraction for economists who crave the same credibility as their scientific peers, and why the approach dominates the discipline.
Unfortunately, this approach has also been spectacularly unsuccessful.
I'm not sure 10yrs is enough personally for James McCormick - selling fake bomb detectors is an appalling con trick. He deserves more IMO. How many died as a result of this appalling callousness?
IIRC the BBC did a very good prog that helped to expose his fraud - more of this sort of investigative work that isn't politically motivated.
EDIT they did
RT @faisalislam: Hats off to Newsnight and the new scientist for exposing the fake bomb detector exporter. Did he get export credits? http://t.co/d3gNahEb4t
I miss Rough Justice too - that was a superb series that made a real difference and challenged The Establishment when it was very unpopular to do so.
The Torso in the Tank was one of the most amazing bits of terrier journalism I remember from it.
"Rough Justice was a BBC television series which investigated alleged miscarriages of justice. It was broadcast between 1982 and 2007, and played a role in securing the release of 18 people involved in 13 cases involving miscarriages of justice.[1] The programme was similar in aim and approach to The Court of Last Resort, the NBC TV series that aired in the US between 1957 and 1958. It is credited with contributing to the establishment of the Criminal Cases Review Commission in 1997.[2] Rough Justice was cancelled in 2007 due to budget restraints, leading to criticism from the media as the announcement came just as the BBC launched an £18 million Gaelic-language channel which would serve only 86,000 viewers.[3]" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rough_Justice_(TV_series)
UKIP are the only party that are going to be able to run Labour anywhere close in my ward I think, and they are opposed to HS2. HS2 runs straight through the stables we keep the horses in at.
We are all used to the North South divide, but I wonder if after today we may have to start thinking about th eemergenced of an east west divide, with UKIP doing much better in eastern parts of England than in western. It's just a hunch, but I can see UKIP doing musch better in the East Midlands than the West; Yorkshire than Lancashire; Home counties than SW. Perhaps we will find out today that the English are less inclined to vote UKIP than the Vikings!
We are all used to the North South divide, but I wonder if after today we may have to start thinking about th eemergenced of an east west divide, with UKIP doing much better in eastern parts of England than in western. It's just a hunch, but I can see UKIP doing musch better in the East Midlands than the West; Yorkshire than Lancashire; Home counties than SW. Perhaps we will find out today that the English are less inclined to vote UKIP than the Vikings!
What is your reasoning? I would have thought the Westcountry would be UKIP's most fertile turf.
We are all used to the North South divide, but I wonder if after today we may have to start thinking about th eemergenced of an east west divide, with UKIP doing much better in eastern parts of England than in western. It's just a hunch, but I can see UKIP doing musch better in the East Midlands than the West; Yorkshire than Lancashire; Home counties than SW. Perhaps we will find out today that the English are less inclined to vote UKIP than the Vikings!
There's some evidence to show that after the last Ice Age the British Isles were repopulated in two main waves, one coming up the Atlantic coast from Spain and settling in what we now call the West Country, Ireland, Wales, Lancashire, Cumbria and W Scotland, the other coming from the East, originally from the N Balkans, and settling in the East and South of the British Islands. Whish would encourage thoughts of a rough division in thought between the West and North, and East and South.
We are all used to the North South divide, but I wonder if after today we may have to start thinking about th eemergenced of an east west divide, with UKIP doing much better in eastern parts of England than in western. It's just a hunch, but I can see UKIP doing musch better in the East Midlands than the West; Yorkshire than Lancashire; Home counties than SW. Perhaps we will find out today that the English are less inclined to vote UKIP than the Vikings!
What is your reasoning? I would have thought the Westcountry would be UKIP's most fertile turf.
There is no reasoning - it's just a hunch; and probably not a very good one.
"The Government – entirely coincidentally – opted to announce, 24 hours before the local elections, that £20 million of overseas aid to South Africa was going to be cut. William Hague – who just happened to be passing the Today programme studio – went on air to explain coolly that the decision was simply the result of discussions that had been going on for “some months”. When I saw the story I thought to myself, “Oh please. An overseas aid cut the day before the polls open. Surely the Tories don’t expect Labour to fall for that one.”
At which point the door to the studio burst open, and in burst Ivan Lewis, resplendent in his “Free Nelson Mandela” T-shirt, belting out a lusty rendition of Nkosi Sikelel' iAfrika. OK, I’m exaggerating a bit. But only a bit.
The cut would he said, "reinforce some of the feelings about the apartheid years". It was “high-handed and patronising”. Then, just in case the ANC-loving voters of the Shires hadn’t got the message, he tweeted, “Tories opposed sanctions against apartheid S Africa and now end aid to democratic S Africa in shabby way. Leaves bitter taste."
Well, it wouldn’t have left a bitter taste in Conservative HQ. They’d have been breaking out the champagne. Even the New Statesman – not a publication that could be said to be in the vanguard of demanding savage cuts to the aid budget – acknowledged “This argument has the benefit of moral consistency but it's not an easy one to make when the public are already so sceptical of aid spending. A recent ComRes poll showed that just 8 per cent believe the aid budget should be increased, while 77 per cent believe it should be cut”.
The Conservatives are planning to “wedge” their way to victory in 2015. Month after month they will unveil a new policy, or publish a minor piece of legislation, solely designed to drive a wedge between the Labour Party and the bulk of the British people. It is cold, cynical politics. And it will work.
In fact, it’s already working. On welfare Tory strategists have been unable to believe – literally unable to believe – that Labour chose to take the bait and oppose their welfare cap. And they’ve calculated, correctly, that in order to pursue his favoured “35 per cent strategy”, and keep his progressive coalition intact, Ed Miliband will have no option but to leap lustily in the traps they set for him.
One guy on Twitter claims he is going to vote twice for Labour in Bristol & Cornwall - is he a politics student?
pic.twitter.com/YRa6Aqa9ry
That's allowed since it is local elections I thought. You're not supposed to vote twice in a general election, though.
For the 2001 general election I was registered to vote in three [mum, dad, uni] different constituencies, but I only voted in one - thus my apparent turnout was 33.3%.
We are all used to the North South divide, but I wonder if after today we may have to start thinking about th eemergenced of an east west divide, with UKIP doing much better in eastern parts of England than in western. It's just a hunch, but I can see UKIP doing musch better in the East Midlands than the West; Yorkshire than Lancashire; Home counties than SW. Perhaps we will find out today that the English are less inclined to vote UKIP than the Vikings!
There's some evidence to show that after the last Ice Age the British Isles were repopulated in two main waves, one coming up the Atlantic coast from Spain and settling in what we now call the West Country, Ireland, Wales, Lancashire, Cumbria and W Scotland, the other coming from the East, originally from the N Balkans, and settling in the East and South of the British Islands. Whish would encourage thoughts of a rough division in thought between the West and North, and East and South.
And, of course, England was divided in two by Alfred and Guthrum back in the 9th century, with Watling Street the boundary. Anglo-Saxon control to the west, Danish control to the east. Around here, it's still the border between the East and West Midlands (Warwickshire and Leicestershire). Accents and place names change almost as soon as you cross.
Mr. Observer, I may've mentioned this before but in Yorkshire we still use little bits of Viking slang. I'm not in a broad Yorkshire sort of area, but one we did use at school was 'lekking' (aka laking), which means 'playing'.
Crikey - Tony Hall had a gagging clause in his own contract? WTF? He's only got the job because Entwit lost his because of such things and ignoring the elephant herd in the room
"An 80-page report into sexual harassment and bullying at the corporation has found that victims are scared of making complaints and left with the "weary sense" that nothing will be done if they do.
The report also found that there have been 37 formal complaints of sexual harassment in the past six years. In a third of them no disciplinary action was taken, while in some cases even when the complaint was upheld the perpetrator was subsequently promoted.
Tony Hall, the director general of the BBC, acknowledged that the report made "uncomfortable reading" and vowed to introduce a culture where there was "zero tolerance" of bullying. He said that the corporation will remove gagging orders from all future BBC contracts. A confidentiality clause in his own contract which bars him from criticising the corporation if he leaves will also be removed...
The report, by Dinah Rose QC, found that some senior managers and stars are perceived to be "untouchable" because of their value to the corporation. Some are "known bullies" who are renowned for giving staff "verbal beatings" in front of their colleagues. The report states: "These individuals create a climate of anxiety and participants described how they live in fear that it will be their turn to be verbally abused today.
"People also cited the fact that they were ashamed about how this made them behave – when they feel relief that it's someone else's turn, they keep their head down and squirm and then are full of shame at how they have just watched their colleague take a verbal beating."
...The report found that some of the worst bullying and "inappropriate" behaviour involved stars. "It was noted that there were examples of presenters being managed out of the organisation or removed from a programme, but usually this was perceived as only being dealt with 'too late' – such as when their programme or their profile was no longer considered valuable, or when the person's reputation was already tarnished." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/10032892/Bullying-at-BBC-leaves-staff-terrified-of-untouchable-stars-and-bosses.html
On topic, my uneducated guess is that Labour will hold South Shields easily with UKIP doing ok as a distant second and the rest doing very badly indeed.
The serial Labour voters still trudge along and do their duty and vote for them again. I think things will start to get interesting after the 2015 election when it finally starts to dawn on them that the Labour party is terminally useless when dopey Ed gets his hands on the controls.
Concerning the CCs counting overnight, Gloucestershire and Somerset have been subjected to boundary changes. Essex too but they were pretty minor (some people being moved out of Little/High Lever) there and so more comparable with 2009.
"The Government – entirely coincidentally – opted to announce, 24 hours before the local elections, that £20 million of overseas aid to South Africa was going to be cut. William Hague – who just happened to be passing the Today programme studio – went on air to explain coolly that the decision was simply the result of discussions that had been going on for “some months”. When I saw the story I thought to myself, “Oh please. An overseas aid cut the day before the polls open. Surely the Tories don’t expect Labour to fall for that one.”
At which point the door to the studio burst open, and in burst Ivan Lewis, resplendent in his “Free Nelson Mandela” T-shirt, belting out a lusty rendition of Nkosi Sikelel' iAfrika. OK, I’m exaggerating a bit. But only a bit.
The cut would he said, "reinforce some of the feelings about the apartheid years". It was “high-handed and patronising”. Then, just in case the ANC-loving voters of the Shires hadn’t got the message, he tweeted, “Tories opposed sanctions against apartheid S Africa and now end aid to democratic S Africa in shabby way. Leaves bitter taste."
Well, it wouldn’t have left a bitter taste in Conservative HQ. They’d have been breaking out the champagne. Even the New Statesman – not a publication that could be said to be in the vanguard of demanding savage cuts to the aid budget – acknowledged “This argument has the benefit of moral consistency but it's not an easy one to make when the public are already so sceptical of aid spending. A recent ComRes poll showed that just 8 per cent believe the aid budget should be increased, while 77 per cent believe it should be cut”.
The Conservatives are planning to “wedge” their way to victory in 2015. Month after month they will unveil a new policy, or publish a minor piece of legislation, solely designed to drive a wedge between the Labour Party and the bulk of the British people. It is cold, cynical politics. And it will work.
In fact, it’s already working. On welfare Tory strategists have been unable to believe – literally unable to believe – that Labour chose to take the bait and oppose their welfare cap. And they’ve calculated, correctly, that in order to pursue his favoured “35 per cent strategy”, and keep his progressive coalition intact, Ed Miliband will have no option but to leap lustily in the traps they set for him.
James Forsyth said UKIP are banking of a new wave of eastern european immigration making them the immigration party at the 2015 election, the Conservatives having lost their "we can reduce immigration" credibility.
The way things are going in the EU these days it might not be necessary to have a UKIP party anyway - the EU is doing a splendidly thorough job of tearing itself apart without our help.
I genuinely do not believe the EU - or at least the Eurozone - will be there as we currently know it to be by late 2015. Push is coming shove PDQ.
Mr. Observer, I may've mentioned this before but in Yorkshire we still use little bits of Viking slang. I'm not in a broad Yorkshire sort of area, but one we did use at school was 'lekking' (aka laking), which means 'playing'.
Very interesting.
I have posted this before, but it's always worth another link:
The British Library's archive of English regional accents and dialects. The older ones from up north are incredible and a real glimpse into a long time ago. The west country ones are pretty strong too. But if this kind of thing interests you, you could waste a day with it. I think it's fantastic.
Tarleton, things have moved on from last year. UKIP's overall rating is now about 5% higher than it was. The party has a momentum behind it, nearly won Eastleigh, and has gained three seats in by-elections. 20% would be rather a poor result in South Shields, IMHO. The party's victory in Gooshays shows that it can win white working class voters, in a historically Labour-voting area (Gooshays only returned Labour councillors from 1964 to 2006). I expectLabour to hold South Shields pretty comfortably, but UKIP to get to 30% or so.
UKIP had a good organisation in Eastleigh. But, in other respects, it shouldn't have been fertile territory for them. It's an affluent constituency, and UKIP tend to do best among working class voters. And, it's a Conservative/Lib Dem marginal, where you'd expect other parties to be squeezed.
In the Counties, the more prosperous Conservative-voting areas probably won't see much of a UKIP breakthrough. It's the Conservative divisions (and some divisions held by other parties) where there are a lot of pensioners and/or working class voters where you should expect to see strong results.
================================ SEAN ...UKIP do not do best in working class areas; they are a Thatcherite Party and do best among disgruntled Tories and Libs like in Eastleigh...in working class Labour strongholds they generally do poorly
They got 12% last November in Middlesbrough , which is geographically , politically and socially similar to South Shields; if you take into account the so called momentum and say ,!6% would be generous
"Hall joined the BBC in 1959, and admits he fabricated his first report of a match between Sheffield Wednesday and Leicester City because he could not see the match in the fog.
This off-the-cuff style became central to Hall's broadcasting career as he honed a style which mixed bombast and buffoonery.
The excitable young commentator soon worked his way up the corporation ladder and became host of the BBC's regional news programme Look North. He made friends with George Best and was a key figure in swinging 60s Manchester.
In Hall's eyes - and words - even the most mundane of events, from a cat stuck up a tree to a non-league match attended by three men and a dog, became an act of pivotal drama. In 1972, he finally found his ideal milieu.
Hall was asked to present It's a Knockout, a kind of adult sports day in which teams from different cities attacked each other with water cannons and custard pies, while trying to complete a variety of demeaning tasks - all dressed in foam rubber suits.
The show became a cult classic, spreading into several European countries and a kind of primitive forerunner to football's Champions League. Hall's star rose with it: the show was perfectly suited to his over-dramatic delivery and his sense of the absurd..."
Furthermore , for a party that's predicted to get 25% of the vote, do you not think they could do better than to attract a mere 200 supporters in a meeting hosted by N Farage himself in South shields on Tuesday night ? ...surely there would be more than 200 curious ,passionate folks willing to come and listen to the Party leader ?
The front page of todays local north east newspaper ( NORTHERN ECHO) is filled with a story about a local UKIP canvasser who is an obvious racist creep ....hmmmm , this doesn't bode too well for UKIP
I suspect UKIP will be doing well to get between 8-14% to come in a very poor second , with a turnout of around 25%
Given that the media after Hagues interview focused on him describing UKIP as clowns again it's difficult to see that Hodges is right in believing it to be a masterstroke. As with the wedge issues of Europe and immigration so masterfully wielded by Dave and George it probably helped UKIP.
Of course if Dan thinks that moving aid from South Africa to Pakistan will help the Tories he may have ignored the rather obvious fact that Farage will be arguing that the Tories shouldn't be sending increased aid to Pakistan.
Well that is sort of the obvious point. UKIP wish to substantially reduce aid and the established parties are all aid junkies. UKIP will push this as a no brainer issue and have the public behind them. Neither Dave Ed nor Nick can outflank them.
Many UKIP supporters are ''burning with the zeal of the converted'' and projecting that zeal into wishful thinking and self delusion ; quite frankly , they need to sober up a bit ; they'll come in second at S Shields , but not over 20% , that's for sure
Labour has increased it's vote % in the last 7 By Elections , even when they lost in Eastleigh , and short of a miracle will increase again in S Shields from 52% to , I suspect ,around 65%
tarleton: I will offer you 2-1 on UKIP getting less than 20% of the vote in South Shields. Any size.
===========================
GO AHEAD !....all of you folks who have bet on Ladbrokes with UKIP at 20-30% are going to lose , while folks like me who have bet on 10-20 are going to do just fine ; I've even hedged my bets with UKIP at 0=10% at 12-1
My prediction is that UKIP will get somewhere between 8 and 14% !
Concerning the CCs counting overnight, Gloucestershire and Somerset have been subjected to boundary changes. Essex too but they were pretty minor (some people being moved out of Little/High Lever) there and so more comparable with 2009.
We have had some fairly sizeable boundary changes here in Oxfordshire
Many UKIP supporters are ''burning with the zeal of the converted'' and projecting that zeal into wishful thinking and self delusion ; quite frankly , they need to sober up a bit ; they'll come in second at S Shields , but not over 20% , that's for sure
Labour has increased it's vote % in the last 7 By Elections , even when they lost in Eastleigh , and short of a miracle will increase again in S Shields from 52% to , I suspect ,around 65%
tarleton: I will offer you 2-1 on UKIP getting less than 20% of the vote in South Shields. Any size.
===========================
GO AHEAD !....all of you folks who have bet on Ladbrokes with UKIP at 20-30% are going to lose , while folks like me who have bet on 10-20 are going to do just fine ; I've even hedged my bets with UKIP at 0=10% at 12-1
My prediction is that UKIP will get somewhere between 8 and 14% !
Despite your confidence that UKIP will win <20% of the vote in South Shields - by quite some measure in fact with your forecast range of 8% - 14%, I didn't notice you rushing to snap up Robert Smithson's seemingly generous offer of 2/1 were you to be proved even remotely correct.
South Shields has a voting number of 63000 , but how come that a mere 200 folks came to hear the much anticipated , charismatic nigel Farage at the UKIP meeting last Tuesday night in South Shields .....surely all those predicted voters , burning with the zeal of the converted , would have enthusiastically came to hear the Messiah speak ?..... hmmm.....something sounds dodgy here ?
South Shields has a voting number of 63000 , but how come that a mere 200 folks came to hear the much anticipated , charismatic nigel Farage at the UKIP meeting last Tuesday night in South Shields .....surely all those predicted voters , burning with the zeal of the converted , would have enthusiastically came to hear the Messiah speak ?..... hmmm.....something sounds dodgy here ?
If a large proportion of the vote is of the protest variety, they don't need to get excited over the actual UKIP candidate or party leader to get a very decent percentage return.
Comments
In terms of predictions for S Shields, I'd be surprised if Labour do poll a better share than last time. UKIP represent a threat to them too, as just as there's no cost at a national level to Tories protesting by voting UKIP locally, so there's no cost to Labour supporters protesting that way too.
A desperately disappointing bunch who simply can't cut it.
The beauty of treating every decision as a transaction is that you can assign everything a numerical value (monetary, or a proxy like "utility") and easily formulate mathematical analyses for every decision (even how much leisure time people spend, whether they have children, how illness affects them).
In that way, economics starts looking like a 'real' hard science with neat theories and mathematically testable predictions, so you can see the attraction for economists who crave the same credibility as their scientific peers, and why the approach dominates the discipline.
Unfortunately, this approach has also been spectacularly unsuccessful.
IIRC the BBC did a very good prog that helped to expose his fraud - more of this sort of investigative work that isn't politically motivated.
EDIT they did
RT @faisalislam: Hats off to Newsnight and the new scientist for exposing the fake bomb detector exporter. Did he get export credits? http://t.co/d3gNahEb4t
I miss Rough Justice too - that was a superb series that made a real difference and challenged The Establishment when it was very unpopular to do so.
The Torso in the Tank was one of the most amazing bits of terrier journalism I remember from it.
"Rough Justice was a BBC television series which investigated alleged miscarriages of justice. It was broadcast between 1982 and 2007, and played a role in securing the release of 18 people involved in 13 cases involving miscarriages of justice.[1] The programme was similar in aim and approach to The Court of Last Resort, the NBC TV series that aired in the US between 1957 and 1958. It is credited with contributing to the establishment of the Criminal Cases Review Commission in 1997.[2] Rough Justice was cancelled in 2007 due to budget restraints, leading to criticism from the media as the announcement came just as the BBC launched an £18 million Gaelic-language channel which would serve only 86,000 viewers.[3]" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rough_Justice_(TV_series)
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02552/020513-MATT-web_2552062a.jpg
Whish would encourage thoughts of a rough division in thought between the West and North, and East and South.
"The Government – entirely coincidentally – opted to announce, 24 hours before the local elections, that £20 million of overseas aid to South Africa was going to be cut. William Hague – who just happened to be passing the Today programme studio – went on air to explain coolly that the decision was simply the result of discussions that had been going on for “some months”. When I saw the story I thought to myself, “Oh please. An overseas aid cut the day before the polls open. Surely the Tories don’t expect Labour to fall for that one.”
At which point the door to the studio burst open, and in burst Ivan Lewis, resplendent in his “Free Nelson Mandela” T-shirt, belting out a lusty rendition of Nkosi Sikelel' iAfrika. OK, I’m exaggerating a bit. But only a bit.
The cut would he said, "reinforce some of the feelings about the apartheid years". It was “high-handed and patronising”. Then, just in case the ANC-loving voters of the Shires hadn’t got the message, he tweeted, “Tories opposed sanctions against apartheid S Africa and now end aid to democratic S Africa in shabby way. Leaves bitter taste."
Well, it wouldn’t have left a bitter taste in Conservative HQ. They’d have been breaking out the champagne. Even the New Statesman – not a publication that could be said to be in the vanguard of demanding savage cuts to the aid budget – acknowledged “This argument has the benefit of moral consistency but it's not an easy one to make when the public are already so sceptical of aid spending. A recent ComRes poll showed that just 8 per cent believe the aid budget should be increased, while 77 per cent believe it should be cut”.
The Conservatives are planning to “wedge” their way to victory in 2015. Month after month they will unveil a new policy, or publish a minor piece of legislation, solely designed to drive a wedge between the Labour Party and the bulk of the British people. It is cold, cynical politics. And it will work.
In fact, it’s already working. On welfare Tory strategists have been unable to believe – literally unable to believe – that Labour chose to take the bait and oppose their welfare cap. And they’ve calculated, correctly, that in order to pursue his favoured “35 per cent strategy”, and keep his progressive coalition intact, Ed Miliband will have no option but to leap lustily in the traps they set for him.
Further traps are already planned on welfare. And law and order. Indeed one has already been set, around Abu Qatada and the temporary withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights. If Theresa May’s new treaty with Jordan doesn’t do the job, then Cameron will push for a vote on the ECHR. And Labour will be given the choice of being the party of One Nation or the party of One Terrorist..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100214941/david-cameron-is-going-big-game-hunting-and-labour-is-about-to-get-its-head-mounted-on-the-wall/
For the 2001 general election I was registered to vote in three [mum, dad, uni] different constituencies, but I only voted in one - thus my apparent turnout was 33.3%.
LATEST:BBC to overhaul bullying and harassment policy after publishing Respect at Work Review
You can’t vote twice in:
a UK Parliamentary, Scottish Parliamentary, National Assembly for Wales or European Parliamentary election.
But you can vote in local government elections at home and at your term-time address, as long as they are not in the same local government area.
http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/register_to_vote/students.aspx
"An 80-page report into sexual harassment and bullying at the corporation has found that victims are scared of making complaints and left with the "weary sense" that nothing will be done if they do.
The report also found that there have been 37 formal complaints of sexual harassment in the past six years. In a third of them no disciplinary action was taken, while in some cases even when the complaint was upheld the perpetrator was subsequently promoted.
Tony Hall, the director general of the BBC, acknowledged that the report made "uncomfortable reading" and vowed to introduce a culture where there was "zero tolerance" of bullying. He said that the corporation will remove gagging orders from all future BBC contracts. A confidentiality clause in his own contract which bars him from criticising the corporation if he leaves will also be removed...
The report, by Dinah Rose QC, found that some senior managers and stars are perceived to be "untouchable" because of their value to the corporation. Some are "known bullies" who are renowned for giving staff "verbal beatings" in front of their colleagues. The report states: "These individuals create a climate of anxiety and participants described how they live in fear that it will be their turn to be verbally abused today.
"People also cited the fact that they were ashamed about how this made them behave – when they feel relief that it's someone else's turn, they keep their head down and squirm and then are full of shame at how they have just watched their colleague take a verbal beating."
...The report found that some of the worst bullying and "inappropriate" behaviour involved stars. "It was noted that there were examples of presenters being managed out of the organisation or removed from a programme, but usually this was perceived as only being dealt with 'too late' – such as when their programme or their profile was no longer considered valuable, or when the person's reputation was already tarnished." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/10032892/Bullying-at-BBC-leaves-staff-terrified-of-untouchable-stars-and-bosses.html
The serial Labour voters still trudge along and do their duty and vote for them again. I think things will start to get interesting after the 2015 election when it finally starts to dawn on them that the Labour party is terminally useless when dopey Ed gets his hands on the controls.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/05/the-view-from-22-ukip-vs-westminster-ukip-vs-the-tories-and-intervening-in-syria/
Given that the Conservatives have already abandoned their low tax, and strong national defense rosettes, that doesn't leave much.
I genuinely do not believe the EU - or at least the Eurozone - will be there as we currently know it to be by late 2015. Push is coming shove PDQ.
I have posted this before, but it's always worth another link:
http://sounds.bl.uk/Accents-and-dialects/Survey-of-English-dialects
The British Library's archive of English regional accents and dialects. The older ones from up north are incredible and a real glimpse into a long time ago. The west country ones are pretty strong too. But if this kind of thing interests you, you could waste a day with it. I think it's fantastic.
SEAN ...UKIP do not do best in working class areas; they are a Thatcherite Party and do best among disgruntled Tories and Libs like in Eastleigh...in working class Labour strongholds they generally do poorly
They got 12% last November in Middlesbrough , which is geographically , politically and socially similar to South Shields; if you take into account the so called momentum and say ,!6% would be generous
This bit made me smile very sadly...
"Hall joined the BBC in 1959, and admits he fabricated his first report of a match between Sheffield Wednesday and Leicester City because he could not see the match in the fog.
This off-the-cuff style became central to Hall's broadcasting career as he honed a style which mixed bombast and buffoonery.
The excitable young commentator soon worked his way up the corporation ladder and became host of the BBC's regional news programme Look North. He made friends with George Best and was a key figure in swinging 60s Manchester.
In Hall's eyes - and words - even the most mundane of events, from a cat stuck up a tree to a non-league match attended by three men and a dog, became an act of pivotal drama. In 1972, he finally found his ideal milieu.
Hall was asked to present It's a Knockout, a kind of adult sports day in which teams from different cities attacked each other with water cannons and custard pies, while trying to complete a variety of demeaning tasks - all dressed in foam rubber suits.
The show became a cult classic, spreading into several European countries and a kind of primitive forerunner to football's Champions League. Hall's star rose with it: the show was perfectly suited to his over-dramatic delivery and his sense of the absurd..."
'-ley' is a Viking suffix too. Means 'farm'. Hence Ilkley, Batley, Morley etc etc.
The front page of todays local north east newspaper ( NORTHERN ECHO) is filled with a story about a local UKIP canvasser who is an obvious racist creep ....hmmmm , this doesn't bode too well for UKIP
I suspect UKIP will be doing well to get between 8-14% to come in a very poor second , with a turnout of around 25%
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/may/02/eurozone-crisis-european-central-bank-rates
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/culturepicturegalleries/10030619/Historical-Figures-for-the-21st-Century.html?frame=2551566
https://twitter.com/le_mcevoy/status/329860583954464769
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GO AHEAD !....all of you folks who have bet on Ladbrokes with UKIP at 20-30% are going to lose , while folks like me who have bet on 10-20 are going to do just fine ; I've even hedged my bets with UKIP at 0=10% at 12-1
My prediction is that UKIP will get somewhere between 8 and 14% !
Its like you're desperate for a sh8g and the object of your affections says they might be able to stretch to a hug.
Ina way it's more insulting than being told to f@k completely off.