If LAB had chosen a local for Mid Beds they’d have walked it – politicalbetting.com

System · August 27

If LAB had chosen a local for Mid Beds they’d have walked it – politicalbetting.com

As most PBers, know I live in Bedford only about a mile and a half from the Mid Beds constituency where following the resignation of Nadine Dorries there is to be a by-election.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles · August 27

Test

Taz · August 27

TheScreamingEagles said:
Test

Edge

Casino_Royale · August 27

Labour got almost 30% in the 2017GE - quite a way ahead of the LDs - and have a fairly articulate and professional candidate. I'm not sure locality matters quite so much in a seat so close to London with plenty of commuters and out of towners.

My guess is the Tories get between 30-35% with lots staying at home. If Labour can top that to between 40-45%, and the LDs don't split it, then they'll win.

bondegezou · August 27

Caroline Lucas is standing down at the next election. Obviously the Greens’ best hope to remain in Parliament is to win the seat, and they have selected as their candidate… Siân Berry, a London councillor and London assembly member. (Indeed, after being selected as the Brighton candidate, she announced she will also be a candidate for the 2024 London Assembly election.) I wonder if that will work against them and there’s a betting opportunity there.

Casino_Royale · August 27

bondegezou said:
Caroline Lucas is standing down at the next election. Obviously the Greens’ best hope to remain in Parliament is to win the seat, and they have selected as their candidate… Siân Berry, a London councillor and London assembly member. (Indeed, after being selected as the Brighton candidate, she announced she will also be a candidate for the 2024 London Assembly election.) I wonder if that will work against them and there’s a betting opportunity there.

Until recently I thought Greens could only thrive when Labour were in opposition but I think Starmer has opened up enough of his left-flank for them to potentially retain it.

It's certainly that sort of seat.

ydoethur · August 27

bondegezou said:
Caroline Lucas is standing down at the next election. Obviously the Greens’ best hope to remain in Parliament is to win the seat, and they have selected as their candidate… Siân Berry, a London councillor and London assembly member. (Indeed, after being selected as the Brighton candidate, she announced she will also be a candidate for the 2024 London Assembly election.) I wonder if that will work against them and there’s a betting opportunity there.

To be truthful I've been assuming the Greens will lose that seat anyway once Lucas leaves.

Unless they pick a complete idiot as candidate, which to be fair with Brighton Labour is not something you can ever rule out, they should walk it.

Heck, the neighbouring seat even elects Lloyd Russell-Moyle.

ydoethur · August 27

Casino_Royale said:

bondegezou said:
Caroline Lucas is standing down at the next election. Obviously the Greens’ best hope to remain in Parliament is to win the seat, and they have selected as their candidate… Siân Berry, a London councillor and London assembly member. (Indeed, after being selected as the Brighton candidate, she announced she will also be a candidate for the 2024 London Assembly election.) I wonder if that will work against them and there’s a betting opportunity there.
Until recently I thought Greens could only thrive when Labour were in oppositio but I think Starmer has opened up enough of his left-flank for them to potentially retain it.

It's certainly that sort of seat.

Do you mean 'when they were in government?'

HYUFD · August 27

For by elections and marginal seats having a well known local councillor as candidate certainly helps. In Uxbridge Labour having a Camden councillor as candidate didn’t help them although ULEZ was the key issue and a London councillor in Mid Bedfordshire won’t help the party either.

On national swing in the polls though Labour will have a chance and based on the Selby by election swing would win it. The Tories though may ironically be helped by Dorries trashing Rishi so hard in her resignation statement. They can therefore distance themselves from her ignoring the constituency for the last few months and delaying standing down.

I would not even be surprised if Dorries endorsed the ReformUK candidate in the by election

Casino_Royale · August 27

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

bondegezou said:
Caroline Lucas is standing down at the next election. Obviously the Greens’ best hope to remain in Parliament is to win the seat, and they have selected as their candidate… Siân Berry, a London councillor and London assembly member. (Indeed, after being selected as the Brighton candidate, she announced she will also be a candidate for the 2024 London Assembly election.) I wonder if that will work against them and there’s a betting opportunity there.
Until recently I thought Greens could only thrive when Labour were in oppositio but I think Starmer has opened up enough of his left-flank for them to potentially retain it.

It's certainly that sort of seat.
Do you mean 'when they were in government?'

No. The Greens won the seat in 2010 when the Labour vote collapsed and it was a non-Tory alternative to them. Usually, when Labour are popular nationally and there's a chance of getting them back into government you'd expect a seat like that to go back to Labour.

But the Green vote is absolutely huge (at over 30k+) there, they have a strong activist base, and it's ground-zero for the SKSfanspleaseexplainthis crowd.

Taz · August 27

bondegezou said:
Caroline Lucas is standing down at the next election. Obviously the Greens’ best hope to remain in Parliament is to win the seat, and they have selected as their candidate… Siân Berry, a London councillor and London assembly member. (Indeed, after being selected as the Brighton candidate, she announced she will also be a candidate for the 2024 London Assembly election.) I wonder if that will work against them and there’s a betting opportunity there.

Possibly if labour pick someone like Eddie Izzard, another London based carpetbagger, that could work against them.

There does seem an element of entitlement in the green candidate selection. You’d think, given how strong they are locally, that a good local candidate would have emerged.

ydoethur · August 27

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

bondegezou said:
Caroline Lucas is standing down at the next election. Obviously the Greens’ best hope to remain in Parliament is to win the seat, and they have selected as their candidate… Siân Berry, a London councillor and London assembly member. (Indeed, after being selected as the Brighton candidate, she announced she will also be a candidate for the 2024 London Assembly election.) I wonder if that will work against them and there’s a betting opportunity there.
Until recently I thought Greens could only thrive when Labour were in oppositio but I think Starmer has opened up enough of his left-flank for them to potentially retain it.

It's certainly that sort of seat.
Do you mean 'when they were in government?'
No. The Greens won the seat in 2010 when the Labour vote collapsed and it was a non-Tory alternative to them. Usually, when Labour are popular nationally and there's a chance of getting them back into government you'd expect a seat like that to go back to Labour.

But the Green vote is absolutely huge (at over 30k+) there, they have a strong activist base, and it's ground-zero for the SKSfanspleaseexplainthis crowd.

Labour were in government in 2010...

HYUFD · August 27

For by elections and marginal seats having a well known local councillor as

Taz said:

bondegezou said:
Caroline Lucas is standing down at the next election. Obviously the Greens’ best hope to remain in Parliament is to win the seat, and they have selected as their candidate… Siân Berry, a London councillor and London assembly member. (Indeed, after being selected as the Brighton candidate, she announced she will also be a candidate for the 2024 London Assembly election.) I wonder if that will work against them and there’s a betting opportunity there.
Possibly if labour pick someone like Eddie Izzard, another London based carpetbagger, that could work against them.

There does seem an element of entitlement in the green candidate selection. You’d think, given how strong they are locally, that a good local candidate would have emerged.

Brighton Pavilion is the Greens only and safest seat, hence they are willing to risk it to get a party heavyweight in

Nigelb · August 27

HYUFD said:
For by elections and marginal seats having a well known local councillor as
Taz said:

bondegezou said:
Caroline Lucas is standing down at the next election. Obviously the Greens’ best hope to remain in Parliament is to win the seat, and they have selected as their candidate… Siân Berry, a London councillor and London assembly member. (Indeed, after being selected as the Brighton candidate, she announced she will also be a candidate for the 2024 London Assembly election.) I wonder if that will work against them and there’s a betting opportunity there.
Possibly if labour pick someone like Eddie Izzard, another London based carpetbagger, that could work against them.

There does seem an element of entitlement in the green candidate selection. You’d think, given how strong they are locally, that a good local candidate would have emerged.
Brighton Pavilion is the Greens only and safest seat, hence they are willing to risk it to get a party heavyweight in

If it's their only seat, it's also their least safe one.

OldKingCole · August 27

Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, given the length of her resignation letter that it’s taken her all the ‘missing’ time to write it!

Carnyx · August 27

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:
For by elections and marginal seats having a well known local councillor as
Taz said:

bondegezou said:
Caroline Lucas is standing down at the next election. Obviously the Greens’ best hope to remain in Parliament is to win the seat, and they have selected as their candidate… Siân Berry, a London councillor and London assembly member. (Indeed, after being selected as the Brighton candidate, she announced she will also be a candidate for the 2024 London Assembly election.) I wonder if that will work against them and there’s a betting opportunity there.
Possibly if labour pick someone like Eddie Izzard, another London based carpetbagger, that could work against them.

There does seem an element of entitlement in the green candidate selection. You’d think, given how strong they are locally, that a good local candidate would have emerged.
Brighton Pavilion is the Greens only and safest seat, hence they are willing to risk it to get a party heavyweight in
If it's their only seat, it's also their least safe one.

Ansd their mean, median and modal seat for safeness.

Carnyx · August 27

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, given the length of her resignation letter that it’s taken her all the ‘missing’ time to write it!

Difficult if you're used to writing novels full of sex, er romantic, scenes, I expect. Think of all the false starts. (This may be unfair. I have never read any of her works. Not a criticism, just the wrong genre for me.)

ydoethur · August 27

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, given the length of her resignation letter that it’s taken her all the ‘missing’ time to write it!
Difficult if you're used to writing novels full of sex, er romantic, scenes, I expect. Think of all the false starts. (This may be unfair. I have never read any of her works. Not a criticism, just the wrong genre for me.)

Oh well, at least she's used to writing about the effect of massive johnsons...

bondegezou · August 27

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:
For by elections and marginal seats having a well known local councillor as
Taz said:

bondegezou said:
Caroline Lucas is standing down at the next election. Obviously the Greens’ best hope to remain in Parliament is to win the seat, and they have selected as their candidate… Siân Berry, a London councillor and London assembly member. (Indeed, after being selected as the Brighton candidate, she announced she will also be a candidate for the 2024 London Assembly election.) I wonder if that will work against them and there’s a betting opportunity there.
Possibly if labour pick someone like Eddie Izzard, another London based carpetbagger, that could work against them.

There does seem an element of entitlement in the green candidate selection. You’d think, given how strong they are locally, that a good local candidate would have emerged.
Brighton Pavilion is the Greens only and safest seat, hence they are willing to risk it to get a party heavyweight in
If it's their only seat, it's also their least safe one.
Ansd their mean, median and modal seat for safeness.

What’s their lower quartile (25th percentile) seat for safeness?

Luckyguy1983 · August 27

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, given the length of her resignation letter that it’s taken her all the ‘missing’ time to write it!
Difficult if you're used to writing novels full of sex, er romantic, scenes, I expect. Think of all the false starts. (This may be unfair. I have never read any of her works. Not a criticism, just the wrong genre for me.)
Oh well, at least she's used to writing about the effect of massive johnsons...

Quite versatile of her to write so convincingly on the unsatisfying nature of tiny Sunaks.

ydoethur · August 27

In deeply surprising news:

Emmerson Mnangagwa: 'The Crocodile' wins second term as Zimbabwe president
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66631185

Luckyguy1983 · August 27

bondegezou said:

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:
For by elections and marginal seats having a well known local councillor as
Taz said:

bondegezou said:
Caroline Lucas is standing down at the next election. Obviously the Greens’ best hope to remain in Parliament is to win the seat, and they have selected as their candidate… Siân Berry, a London councillor and London assembly member. (Indeed, after being selected as the Brighton candidate, she announced she will also be a candidate for the 2024 London Assembly election.) I wonder if that will work against them and there’s a betting opportunity there.
Possibly if labour pick someone like Eddie Izzard, another London based carpetbagger, that could work against them.

There does seem an element of entitlement in the green candidate selection. You’d think, given how strong they are locally, that a good local candidate would have emerged.
Brighton Pavilion is the Greens only and safest seat, hence they are willing to risk it to get a party heavyweight in
If it's their only seat, it's also their least safe one.
Ansd their mean, median and modal seat for safeness.
What’s their lower quartile (25th percentile) seat for safeness?

Brighton Pavilion.

ydoethur · August 27

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, given the length of her resignation letter that it’s taken her all the ‘missing’ time to write it!
Difficult if you're used to writing novels full of sex, er romantic, scenes, I expect. Think of all the false starts. (This may be unfair. I have never read any of her works. Not a criticism, just the wrong genre for me.)
Oh well, at least she's used to writing about the effect of massive johnsons...
Quite versatile of her to write so convincingly on the unsatisfying nature of tiny Sunaks.

Well, she certainly doesn't appear to find Rishi dishy.

MarqueeMark · August 27

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act.

Bedford panto?

Luckyguy1983 · August 27

ydoethur said:
In deeply surprising news:

Emmerson Mnangagwa: 'The Crocodile' wins second term as Zimbabwe president
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66631185

Where's Roger Moore when we need him?

kjh · August 27

MarqueeMark said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act.
Bedford panto?

Welcome back @MarqueeMark. You had us worried about you.

Pulpstar · August 27

Hmm sometimes people can be a councillor in another area but be local(ISH) to their seat.
Lee Rowley was a london councillor but is from Chesterfield now representing NE Derbyshire. I take it this isn't the case for the Lab prospective MP ?

Northern_Al · August 27

Your man on the (neighbouring) spot would politely suggest that the assumed stereotypes of Caroline Lucas's constituency aren't entirely accurate. The part of the constituency nearest to central Brighton/the sea is indeed luvvie, greenie, sandal-wearing right-on central, including Muesli Mountain (aka Hanover). However, the constituency then spreads out to encompass a) bourgeois suburbs, b) student-dominated areas, and c) the largest, and poorest probably, council estate in Brighton (Moulsecoomb).

Lucas has a huge personal vote, built up over years. That will disappear to some extent. Labour could well take it, if they select the right candidate. And that wouldn't be Izzard (see c) above).

Luckyguy1983 · August 27

By the way, chapeau to our host for the brilliant pun about the local walking it.

ydoethur · August 27

Luckyguy1983 said:
By the way, chapeau to our host for the brilliant pun about the local walking it.

Could have been worse. She may be a Londoner but at least Labour haven't gone for a Trot.

FF43 · August 27

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, given the length of her resignation letter that it’s taken her all the ‘missing’ time to write it!
Difficult if you're used to writing novels full of sex, er romantic, scenes, I expect. Think of all the false starts. (This may be unfair. I have never read any of her works. Not a criticism, just the wrong genre for me.)
Oh well, at least she's used to writing about the effect of massive johnsons...
Quite versatile of her to write so convincingly on the unsatisfying nature of tiny Sunaks.

A hilarious rant, but I suspect not quite the scalpel dissection of Sunak Dorries intends.

She seems most proud of her work on neo natal care. I would like to know more about it. It seems to me that's the sort of issue people should go into politics to address.

londonpubman · August 27

CON on for a top 3 finish in Mid Bedfordshire

ydoethur · August 27

londonpubman said:
CON on for a top 3 finish in Mid Bedfordshire

Would be entertaining if it was a Caithness 1945 scenario with the winner 63 votes ahead of the third placed finisher.

Phil · August 27

Northern_Al said:
Your man on the (neighbouring) spot would politely suggest that the assumed stereotypes of Caroline Lucas's constituency aren't entirely accurate. The part of the constituency nearest to central Brighton/the sea is indeed luvvie, greenie, sandal-wearing right-on central, including Muesli Mountain (aka Hanover). However, the constituency then spreads out to encompass a) bourgeois suburbs, b) student-dominated areas, and c) the largest, and poorest probably, council estate in Brighton (Moulsecoomb).

Lucas has a huge personal vote, built up over years. That will disappear to some extent. Labour could well take it, if they select the right candidate. And that wouldn't be Izzard (see c) above).

Visited Brighton last week. The contrast between the streets in the centre serving the poorest part of the local community vs those serving the richest was eye-opening, given that they were separated by maybe 500m. Incredibly varied mix of people wandering about the place.

MarqueeMark · August 27

kjh said:

MarqueeMark said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act.
Bedford panto?

MarqueeMark said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act.
Bedford panto?
Welcome back @MarqueeMark. You had us worried about you.

Ta. Just been very busy this summer.

Luckyguy1983 · August 27

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, given the length of her resignation letter that it’s taken her all the ‘missing’ time to write it!
Difficult if you're used to writing novels full of sex, er romantic, scenes, I expect. Think of all the false starts. (This may be unfair. I have never read any of her works. Not a criticism, just the wrong genre for me.)
Oh well, at least she's used to writing about the effect of massive johnsons...
Quite versatile of her to write so convincingly on the unsatisfying nature of tiny Sunaks.
A hilarious rant, but I suspect not quite the scalpel dissection of Sunak Dorries intends.

She seems most proud of her work on neo natal care. I would like to know more about it. It seems to me that's the sort of issue people should go into politics to address.

For me, it's an illustration of the pointlessness of unforgiveness and bad blood. It was stupid of Dorries not to take Sunak's call - she lost the peerage due to that. But it was even stupider of Sunak to cancel her peerage (let's not kid ourselves it wasn't him), to make some sort of cocky statment of his so-called authority. Because now look at the mess. Dorries is a sometime junior Minister, but Sunak is meant to be PM, and he came in on a ticket of being 'the grown up in the room'. Grown ups deal with these things in a grown up way, and they go away. Sunak dealt with this in a Cameron/Osborne way, and he's got the Cameron/Osborne response - a soundbite he'll now wear like a millstone. He's a blithering idiot.

Sandpit · August 27

Hopefully we’ll see some more constituency polling, now that the resignation is confirmed.

Do we know anything about Gareth Mackey the independent, who could either be a cat among the pigeons, or completely nowhere once the larger parties get the machines running?

logical_song · August 27

Casino_Royale said:
Labour got almost 30% in the 2017GE - quite a way ahead of the LDs - and have a fairly articulate and professional candidate. I'm not sure locality matters quite so much in a seat so close to London with plenty of commuters and out of towners.

My guess is the Tories get between 30-35% with lots staying at home. If Labour can top that to between 40-45%, and the LDs don't split it, then they'll win.

Aren't the LibDems betting favourite?

El_Capitano · August 27

londonpubman said:
CON on for a top 3 finish in Mid Bedfordshire

Expecting a collapse in the Monster Raving Loony vote?

OldKingCole · August 27

logical_song said:

Casino_Royale said:
Labour got almost 30% in the 2017GE - quite a way ahead of the LDs - and have a fairly articulate and professional candidate. I'm not sure locality matters quite so much in a seat so close to London with plenty of commuters and out of towners.

My guess is the Tories get between 30-35% with lots staying at home. If Labour can top that to between 40-45%, and the LDs don't split it, then they'll win.
Aren't the LibDems betting favourite?

How many bets have actually been laid, as opposed to ‘experts’ making offers?

kle4 · August 27

Casino_Royale said:
Labour got almost 30% in the 2017GE - quite a way ahead of the LDs - and have a fairly articulate and professional candidate. I'm not sure locality matters quite so much in a seat so close to London with plenty of commuters and out of towners.

My guess is the Tories get between 30-35% with lots staying at home. If Labour can top that to between 40-45%, and the LDs don't split it, then they'll win.

Sounds plausible.

Nonetheless I'm going for LDs to shave off too much of the opposition vote but fall short, something like 35 25 20, for the sheer drama.

Until next week, when I shall change my mind.

Stuartinromford · August 27

Sandpit said:
Hopefully we’ll see some more constituency polling, now that the resignation is confirmed.

Do we know anything about Gareth Mackey the independent, who could either be a cat among the pigeons, or completely nowhere once the larger parties get the machines running?

Heck, if he can avoid squeezing it could end up a four way ultramarginal.

My distant, uninformed suspicion is that he does get squeezed, like a hamster meeting three pythons, and that whoever achieves that wins.

Benpointer · August 27

MarqueeMark said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act.
Bedford panto?

Oh no it isn't.

Benpointer · August 27

El_Capitano said:

londonpubman said:
CON on for a top 3 finish in Mid Bedfordshire
Expecting a collapse in the Monster Raving Loony vote?

The Tories have captured the loony vote these days.

kjh · August 27

Sandpit said:
Hopefully we’ll see some more constituency polling, now that the resignation is confirmed.

Do we know anything about Gareth Mackey the independent, who could either be a cat among the pigeons, or completely nowhere once the larger parties get the machines running?

We haven't had to wait for the main parties to get their election machines running. I have been getting almost daily emails from the LDs for weeks to go and help and I note Nick mentioned getting stuff from Labour. I have no idea re the Tories, but if they haven't been campaigning they are mad. They should have a pretty full canvas by now so should have a good idea where they stand. Re-canvassing should highlight any movement. I hate to think about the number of leaflets going out.

Pulpstar · August 27

I think Dorries story is living proof that no matter how modest your background it's very difficult to resist a sycophantic gravy train.

kle4 · August 27

Luckyguy1983 said:

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, given the length of her resignation letter that it’s taken her all the ‘missing’ time to write it!
Difficult if you're used to writing novels full of sex, er romantic, scenes, I expect. Think of all the false starts. (This may be unfair. I have never read any of her works. Not a criticism, just the wrong genre for me.)
Oh well, at least she's used to writing about the effect of massive johnsons...
Quite versatile of her to write so convincingly on the unsatisfying nature of tiny Sunaks.
A hilarious rant, but I suspect not quite the scalpel dissection of Sunak Dorries intends.

She seems most proud of her work on neo natal care. I would like to know more about it. It seems to me that's the sort of issue people should go into politics to address.
For me, it's an illustration of the pointlessness of unforgiveness and bad blood. It was stupid of Dorries not to take Sunak's call - she lost the peerage due to that. But it was even stupider of Sunak to cancel her peerage (let's not kid ourselves it wasn't him), to make some sort of cocky statment of his so-called authority. Because now look at the mess. Dorries is a sometime junior Minister, but Sunak is meant to be PM, and he came in on a ticket of being 'the grown up in the room'. Grown ups deal with these things in a grown up way, and they go away. Sunak dealt with this in a Cameron/Osborne way, and he's got the Cameron/Osborne response - a soundbite he'll now wear like a millstone. He's a blithering idiot.

We do have to add to that though with Dorries openly being critical long before the incident. Which she would also have been in the Lords. The calculation may have been that she left an opening to exploit by not being clear she'd resign and so she could be denied, and her subsequent tantrum would colour all the criticisms she was already going to make.

Now, that may not have been the best idea, but it's not like the choice was between a happy Dorries and a mad Dorries, she was going to be a vocal opponent either way. So that may have tilted him into punishment mode on the basis it would at least show some dominance, rather than be a punching bag. I imagine he hoped it would garner positive press too, but the Owen appointment really overshadowed that.

Northern_Al · August 27

Phil said:

Northern_Al said:
Your man on the (neighbouring) spot would politely suggest that the assumed stereotypes of Caroline Lucas's constituency aren't entirely accurate. The part of the constituency nearest to central Brighton/the sea is indeed luvvie, greenie, sandal-wearing right-on central, including Muesli Mountain (aka Hanover). However, the constituency then spreads out to encompass a) bourgeois suburbs, b) student-dominated areas, and c) the largest, and poorest probably, council estate in Brighton (Moulsecoomb).

Lucas has a huge personal vote, built up over years. That will disappear to some extent. Labour could well take it, if they select the right candidate. And that wouldn't be Izzard (see c) above).
Visited Brighton last week. The contrast between the streets in the centre serving the poorest part of the local community vs those serving the richest was eye-opening, given that they were separated by maybe 500m. Incredibly varied mix of people wandering about the place.

London-on-Sea. You're right, they're cheek by jowl. On the London Road are the poor. Turn the corner into North Laine, you meet the affluent. The homeless, drug-addled are the only thing the two areas have in common.

OldKingCole · August 27

kjh said:

Sandpit said:
Hopefully we’ll see some more constituency polling, now that the resignation is confirmed.

Do we know anything about Gareth Mackey the independent, who could either be a cat among the pigeons, or completely nowhere once the larger parties get the machines running?
We haven't had to wait for the main parties to get their election machines running. I have been getting almost daily emails from the LDs for weeks to go and help and I note Nick mentioned getting stuff from Labour. I have no idea re the Tories, but if they haven't been campaigning they are mad. They should have a pretty full canvas by now so should have a good idea where they stand. Re-canvassing should highlight any movement. I hate to think about the number of leaflets going out.

Has OGH any associates 10 minutes down the road who can give us some idea of what’s actually happening in the constituency?

SandyRentool · August 27

Benpointer said:

El_Capitano said:

londonpubman said:
CON on for a top 3 finish in Mid Bedfordshire
Expecting a collapse in the Monster Raving Loony vote?
The Tories have captured the loony vote these days.

This is correct. PB's very own John Loony is now a Conservative.

Sandpit · August 27

I wonder how many of the constituents of Bedford might drive to work in the ULEZ zone, and if this could become one the issues over which the by-election is fought?

Tories in London have caught on to the slippery slope argument, “Labour’s carless society” this week’s line, after it turns out that Khan is, as expected, looking at putting all of the ULEZ cameras to work on some sort of road pricing scheme. MoS with the story. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12448979/Secret-plan-change-drivers-mile-Ulez-start-Labours-carless-society.html

kjh · August 27

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:
Labour got almost 30% in the 2017GE - quite a way ahead of the LDs - and have a fairly articulate and professional candidate. I'm not sure locality matters quite so much in a seat so close to London with plenty of commuters and out of towners.

My guess is the Tories get between 30-35% with lots staying at home. If Labour can top that to between 40-45%, and the LDs don't split it, then they'll win.
Sounds plausible.

Nonetheless I'm going for LDs to shave off too much of the opposition vote but fall short, something like 35 25 20, for the sheer drama.

Until next week, when I shall change my mind.

As far as I can see each of the 3 main parties could come 1st, 2nd or 3rd and I wouldn't feel confident backing any at the odds being given.

I suspect this is the best opportunity to beat the odds if you get involved in the campaign. Obviously if you are involved in any campaign you have a better idea, but this one I think gives a better opportunity than others to get a difference between a knowledgeable punter and one who isn't.

kle4 · August 27

bondegezou said:
Caroline Lucas is standing down at the next election. Obviously the Greens’ best hope to remain in Parliament is to win the seat, and they have selected as their candidate… Siân Berry, a London councillor and London assembly member. (Indeed, after being selected as the Brighton candidate, she announced she will also be a candidate for the 2024 London Assembly election.) I wonder if that will work against them and there’s a betting opportunity there.

I think it's a smart choice despite standing elsewhere too. Local councillors are often a decent choice but are not as well known as they think, and with Labour riding high nationally and Lucas gone I think a somewhat well-known (among Greens) name is the best bet to retain the casual Green voters who just liked Lucy's and were proud to have the only Green MP.

stodge · August 27

Sandpit said:
I wonder how many of the constituents of Bedford might drive to work in the ULEZ zone, and if this could become one the issues over which the by-election is fought?

Tories in London have caught on to the slippery slope argument, “Labour’s carless society” this week’s line, after it turns out that Khan is, as expected, looking at putting all of the ULEZ cameras to work on some sort of road pricing scheme. MoS with the story. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12448979/Secret-plan-change-drivers-mile-Ulez-start-Labours-carless-society.html

It comes in on Tuesday and once most people have discovered their vehicles are safely compliant, it will die as a political issue in and of itself. The Mail on Sunday knows this and are trying to open another anti-Labour line of attack - we have cameras on many roads and APNR technology is widely in use so IF there was an intention to charge, just as happens with the Dartford Crossing, it could be done quite easily.

Many countries have toll roads - I'm not saying we should emulate them but there's a discussion to be had.

bondegezou · August 27

kjh said:

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:
Labour got almost 30% in the 2017GE - quite a way ahead of the LDs - and have a fairly articulate and professional candidate. I'm not sure locality matters quite so much in a seat so close to London with plenty of commuters and out of towners.

My guess is the Tories get between 30-35% with lots staying at home. If Labour can top that to between 40-45%, and the LDs don't split it, then they'll win.
Sounds plausible.

Nonetheless I'm going for LDs to shave off too much of the opposition vote but fall short, something like 35 25 20, for the sheer drama.

Until next week, when I shall change my mind.
As far as I can see each of the 3 main parties could come 1st, 2nd or 3rd and I wouldn't feel confident backing any at the odds being given.

I suspect this is the best opportunity to beat the odds if you get involved in the campaign. Obviously if you are involved in any campaign you have a better idea, but this one I think gives a better opportunity than others to get a difference between a knowledgeable punter and one who isn't.

If the independent does well, one of the main parties could come 4th.

bondegezou · August 27

kle4 said:

bondegezou said:
Caroline Lucas is standing down at the next election. Obviously the Greens’ best hope to remain in Parliament is to win the seat, and they have selected as their candidate… Siân Berry, a London councillor and London assembly member. (Indeed, after being selected as the Brighton candidate, she announced she will also be a candidate for the 2024 London Assembly election.) I wonder if that will work against them and there’s a betting opportunity there.
I think it's a smart choice despite standing elsewhere too. Local councillors are often a decent choice but are not as well known as they think, and with Labour riding high nationally and Lucas gone I think a somewhat well-known (among Greens) name is the best bet to retain the casual Green voters who just liked Lucy's and were proud to have the only Green MP.

The people who know who Sian Berry is are surely going to be voting Green anyway…?

Alphabet_Soup · August 27

SandyRentool said:

Benpointer said:

El_Capitano said:

londonpubman said:
CON on for a top 3 finish in Mid Bedfordshire
Expecting a collapse in the Monster Raving Loony vote?
The Tories have captured the loony vote these days.
This is correct. PB's very own John Loony is now a Conservative.

JL transitioned seamlessly from the conservative wing of the Loony Party to the loony wing of the Conservative Party.

bondegezou · August 27

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-66630395

Alba NOT standing in Rutherglen. That will help the SNP a wee bit.

kle4 · August 27

bondegezou said:

kle4 said:

bondegezou said:
Caroline Lucas is standing down at the next election. Obviously the Greens’ best hope to remain in Parliament is to win the seat, and they have selected as their candidate… Siân Berry, a London councillor and London assembly member. (Indeed, after being selected as the Brighton candidate, she announced she will also be a candidate for the 2024 London Assembly election.) I wonder if that will work against them and there’s a betting opportunity there.
I think it's a smart choice despite standing elsewhere too. Local councillors are often a decent choice but are not as well known as they think, and with Labour riding high nationally and Lucas gone I think a somewhat well-known (among Greens) name is the best bet to retain the casual Green voters who just liked Lucy's and were proud to have the only Green MP.
The people who know who Sian Berry is are surely going to be voting Green anyway…?

I'm thinking of the people who added to Lucas's majority after her narrow win and like having a Green, but are not that interested - who may not know who Sian is, but when they hear 'former leader' of the party etc, will think, oh, they're a fairly big figure, they might have a shot.

Plus some might have - I've heard of her and I'm not voting Green. Extremists disguised as cuddly for the most part (it'll be interesting if winning a load of Nimby council seats in the Shires might alter their balance).

FF43 · August 27

Luckyguy1983 said:

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, given the length of her resignation letter that it’s taken her all the ‘missing’ time to write it!
Difficult if you're used to writing novels full of sex, er romantic, scenes, I expect. Think of all the false starts. (This may be unfair. I have never read any of her works. Not a criticism, just the wrong genre for me.)
Oh well, at least she's used to writing about the effect of massive johnsons...
Quite versatile of her to write so convincingly on the unsatisfying nature of tiny Sunaks.
A hilarious rant, but I suspect not quite the scalpel dissection of Sunak Dorries intends.

She seems most proud of her work on neo natal care. I would like to know more about it. It seems to me that's the sort of issue people should go into politics to address.
For me, it's an illustration of the pointlessness of unforgiveness and bad blood. It was stupid of Dorries not to take Sunak's call - she lost the peerage due to that. But it was even stupider of Sunak to cancel her peerage (let's not kid ourselves it wasn't him), to make some sort of cocky statment of his so-called authority. Because now look at the mess. Dorries is a sometime junior Minister, but Sunak is meant to be PM, and he came in on a ticket of being 'the grown up in the room'. Grown ups deal with these things in a grown up way, and they go away. Sunak dealt with this in a Cameron/Osborne way, and he's got the Cameron/Osborne response - a soundbite he'll now wear like a millstone. He's a blithering idiot.

I think Sunak cancelled Dorries' peerage because he didn't want to lose an election, not out of spite. He failed in this case but I suppose he avoided an election in Sharma's seat. So one up compared with not cancelling the peerages.

Johnson's young whatsit presented no such risk, and so got to keep her peerage.

kjh · August 27

bondegezou said:

kjh said:

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:
Labour got almost 30% in the 2017GE - quite a way ahead of the LDs - and have a fairly articulate and professional candidate. I'm not sure locality matters quite so much in a seat so close to London with plenty of commuters and out of towners.

My guess is the Tories get between 30-35% with lots staying at home. If Labour can top that to between 40-45%, and the LDs don't split it, then they'll win.
Sounds plausible.

Nonetheless I'm going for LDs to shave off too much of the opposition vote but fall short, something like 35 25 20, for the sheer drama.

Until next week, when I shall change my mind.
As far as I can see each of the 3 main parties could come 1st, 2nd or 3rd and I wouldn't feel confident backing any at the odds being given.

I suspect this is the best opportunity to beat the odds if you get involved in the campaign. Obviously if you are involved in any campaign you have a better idea, but this one I think gives a better opportunity than others to get a difference between a knowledgeable punter and one who isn't.
If the independent does well, one of the main parties could come 4th.

I've liked because I missed that, but it is difficult to believe they won't get squashed completely by the level of activity from the other parties. If during the campaign it looks like one of the main parties is a goner I could see that happening as that party also gets squeezed to bits. As discussed before it would be funny if it turned into a LD/Lab fight.

eek · August 27

Luckyguy1983 said:

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, given the length of her resignation letter that it’s taken her all the ‘missing’ time to write it!
Difficult if you're used to writing novels full of sex, er romantic, scenes, I expect. Think of all the false starts. (This may be unfair. I have never read any of her works. Not a criticism, just the wrong genre for me.)
Oh well, at least she's used to writing about the effect of massive johnsons...
Quite versatile of her to write so convincingly on the unsatisfying nature of tiny Sunaks.
A hilarious rant, but I suspect not quite the scalpel dissection of Sunak Dorries intends.

She seems most proud of her work on neo natal care. I would like to know more about it. It seems to me that's the sort of issue people should go into politics to address.
For me, it's an illustration of the pointlessness of unforgiveness and bad blood. It was stupid of Dorries not to take Sunak's call - she lost the peerage due to that. But it was even stupider of Sunak to cancel her peerage (let's not kid ourselves it wasn't him), to make some sort of cocky statment of his so-called authority. Because now look at the mess. Dorries is a sometime junior Minister, but Sunak is meant to be PM, and he came in on a ticket of being 'the grown up in the room'. Grown ups deal with these things in a grown up way, and they go away. Sunak dealt with this in a Cameron/Osborne way, and he's got the Cameron/Osborne response - a soundbite he'll now wear like a millstone. He's a blithering idiot.

You make the assumption that Bozo put Nadine’s name down on the list of people who should get a peerage.

It’s perfectly possible that Bozo said to Nadine he would give her a peerage and then didn’t do so…

kle4 · August 27

bondegezou said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-66630395

Alba NOT standing in Rutherglen. That will help the SNP a wee bit.

I suppose, but will they be standing anywhere for Westminster then? Or will they just repeat their strategy of sticking to Scottish Parliamenty eletions by telling people to vote SNP in the constituency, and Alba in the region?

Stuartinromford · August 27

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, given the length of her resignation letter that it’s taken her all the ‘missing’ time to write it!
Difficult if you're used to writing novels full of sex, er romantic, scenes, I expect. Think of all the false starts. (This may be unfair. I have never read any of her works. Not a criticism, just the wrong genre for me.)
Oh well, at least she's used to writing about the effect of massive johnsons...
Quite versatile of her to write so convincingly on the unsatisfying nature of tiny Sunaks.
A hilarious rant, but I suspect not quite the scalpel dissection of Sunak Dorries intends.

She seems most proud of her work on neo natal care. I would like to know more about it. It seems to me that's the sort of issue people should go into politics to address.
For me, it's an illustration of the pointlessness of unforgiveness and bad blood. It was stupid of Dorries not to take Sunak's call - she lost the peerage due to that. But it was even stupider of Sunak to cancel her peerage (let's not kid ourselves it wasn't him), to make some sort of cocky statment of his so-called authority. Because now look at the mess. Dorries is a sometime junior Minister, but Sunak is meant to be PM, and he came in on a ticket of being 'the grown up in the room'. Grown ups deal with these things in a grown up way, and they go away. Sunak dealt with this in a Cameron/Osborne way, and he's got the Cameron/Osborne response - a soundbite he'll now wear like a millstone. He's a blithering idiot.
I think Sunak cancelled Dorries' peerage because he didn't want to lose an election, not out of spite. He failed in this case but I suppose he avoided an election in Sharma's seat. So one up compared with not cancelling the peerages.

Johnson's young whatsit presented no such risk, and so got to keep her peerage.

The other thing the Dorries Fiasco (for Fiasco it is, no question) is the danger of seeing everything as a manifestation of bad blood (it's because they hate us) rather than cockup or how the rules work.

franklyn · August 27

Mid Beds By Election : help please

I cannot find any betting sites which are offering odds on Gareth Mackey, the local independent councillor who is standing for Mid Beds. Looking to place a bet.

You can get odds on Monster Raving Loony and Reform but not on an independent.

The local independent group swept to power in the local lections for Central Beds in May (there is a major overlap of the constituency and the local authority area). Gareth is a longstanding independent councillor and town mayor for Flitwick, the largest town in the constituency. He and his wife both live and work in the constituency, and he is well-known and popular locally.

The Conservatives have chosen the Bedfordshire Police and Crime Commissioner, who has not particularly covered himself in glory in that role. The Lib Dems, lost the mayoral election in Bedford borough (which abuts on Mid Beds), in May, having held the role for fourteen years. This is a very rural constituency and not exactly Labour territory.

Anyway if anyone can direct me to a betting site, I will be very grateful. If I win, the money will go to charity.

Sandpit · August 27

franklyn said:
Mid Beds By Election : help please

I cannot find any betting sites which are offering odds on Gareth Mackey, the local independent councillor who is standing for Mid Beds. Looking to place a bet.

You can get odds on Monster Raving Loony and Reform but not on an independent.

The local independent group swept to power in the local lections for Central Beds in May (there is a major overlap of the constituency and the local authority area). Gareth is a longstanding independent councillor and town mayor for Flitwick, the largest town in the constituency. He and his wife both live and work in the constituency, and he is well-known and popular locally.

The Conservatives have chosen the Bedfordshire Police and Crime Commissioner, who has not particularly covered himself in glory in that role. The Lib Dems, lost the mayoral election in Bedford borough (which abuts on Mid Beds), in May, having held the role for fourteen years. This is a very rural constituency and not exactly Labour territory.

Anyway if anyone can direct me to a betting site, I will be very grateful. If I win, the money will go to charity.

Ah, some great local info on the independent. Thanks

Might we have ourselves a four-way marginal here?

bondegezou · August 27

franklyn said:
Mid Beds By Election : help please

I cannot find any betting sites which are offering odds on Gareth Mackey, the local independent councillor who is standing for Mid Beds. Looking to place a bet.

You can get odds on Monster Raving Loony and Reform but not on an independent.

The local independent group swept to power in the local lections for Central Beds in May (there is a major overlap of the constituency and the local authority area). Gareth is a longstanding independent councillor and town mayor for Flitwick, the largest town in the constituency. He and his wife both live and work in the constituency, and he is well-known and popular locally.

The Conservatives have chosen the Bedfordshire Police and Crime Commissioner, who has not particularly covered himself in glory in that role. The Lib Dems, lost the mayoral election in Bedford borough (which abuts on Mid Beds), in May, having held the role for fourteen years. This is a very rural constituency and not exactly Labour territory.

Anyway if anyone can direct me to a betting site, I will be very grateful. If I win, the money will go to charity.

In the mayoral election, the LibDem vote was down, but not by much. Their vote share was still higher than in the election before the last one. They lost because the Tories switched mayoral elections from SV to FPTP.

viewcode · August 27

franklyn said:
Mid Beds By Election : help please

I cannot find any betting sites which are offering odds on Gareth Mackey, the local independent councillor who is standing for Mid Beds. Looking to place a bet.

You can get odds on Monster Raving Loony and Reform but not on an independent.

The local independent group swept to power in the local lections for Central Beds in May (there is a major overlap of the constituency and the local authority area). Gareth is a longstanding independent councillor and town mayor for Flitwick, the largest town in the constituency. He and his wife both live and work in the constituency, and he is well-known and popular locally.

The Conservatives have chosen the Bedfordshire Police and Crime Commissioner, who has not particularly covered himself in glory in that role. The Lib Dems, lost the mayoral election in Bedford borough (which abuts on Mid Beds), in May, having held the role for fourteen years. This is a very rural constituency and not exactly Labour territory.

Anyway if anyone can direct me to a betting site, I will be very grateful. If I win, the money will go to charity.

https://www.parimatch.co.uk/en-gb/sports/22888/meetings/637346010/all

Independent 16/1

No need to send the profits to charity. That's silly.

Your spend, your risk, your loss if you lose, your profit if you gain, your responsibility either way. All I ask is that if you lose you don't blame somebody else: we have enough of that **** these days...

bondegezou · August 27

franklyn said:
Mid Beds By Election : help please

I cannot find any betting sites which are offering odds on Gareth Mackey, the local independent councillor who is standing for Mid Beds. Looking to place a bet.

You can get odds on Monster Raving Loony and Reform but not on an independent.

The local independent group swept to power in the local lections for Central Beds in May (there is a major overlap of the constituency and the local authority area). Gareth is a longstanding independent councillor and town mayor for Flitwick, the largest town in the constituency. He and his wife both live and work in the constituency, and he is well-known and popular locally.

The Conservatives have chosen the Bedfordshire Police and Crime Commissioner, who has not particularly covered himself in glory in that role. The Lib Dems, lost the mayoral election in Bedford borough (which abuts on Mid Beds), in May, having held the role for fourteen years. This is a very rural constituency and not exactly Labour territory.

Anyway if anyone can direct me to a betting site, I will be very grateful. If I win, the money will go to charity.

I don’t know of where to bet on the independent, but you could lay the LibDem candidate as a proxy.

FF43 · August 27

Stuartinromford said:

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, given the length of her resignation letter that it’s taken her all the ‘missing’ time to write it!
Difficult if you're used to writing novels full of sex, er romantic, scenes, I expect. Think of all the false starts. (This may be unfair. I have never read any of her works. Not a criticism, just the wrong genre for me.)
Oh well, at least she's used to writing about the effect of massive johnsons...
Quite versatile of her to write so convincingly on the unsatisfying nature of tiny Sunaks.
A hilarious rant, but I suspect not quite the scalpel dissection of Sunak Dorries intends.

She seems most proud of her work on neo natal care. I would like to know more about it. It seems to me that's the sort of issue people should go into politics to address.
For me, it's an illustration of the pointlessness of unforgiveness and bad blood. It was stupid of Dorries not to take Sunak's call - she lost the peerage due to that. But it was even stupider of Sunak to cancel her peerage (let's not kid ourselves it wasn't him), to make some sort of cocky statment of his so-called authority. Because now look at the mess. Dorries is a sometime junior Minister, but Sunak is meant to be PM, and he came in on a ticket of being 'the grown up in the room'. Grown ups deal with these things in a grown up way, and they go away. Sunak dealt with this in a Cameron/Osborne way, and he's got the Cameron/Osborne response - a soundbite he'll now wear like a millstone. He's a blithering idiot.
I think Sunak cancelled Dorries' peerage because he didn't want to lose an election, not out of spite. He failed in this case but I suppose he avoided an election in Sharma's seat. So one up compared with not cancelling the peerages.

Johnson's young whatsit presented no such risk, and so got to keep her peerage.
The other thing the Dorries Fiasco (for Fiasco it is, no question) is the danger of seeing everything as a manifestation of bad blood (it's because they hate us) rather than cockup or how the rules work.

I think Sunak world have done better to cancel Johnson's and Truss' entire resignation lists as inappropriate and ride out the storm. He could have at least claimed the moral high ground and to be doing things differently.

As it is, he looks craven. The damage to Sunak might satisfy Dorries, but it's hardly an argument to give her a peerage, or any other public post from now on.

Malmesbury · August 27

ydoethur said:
In deeply surprising news:

Emmerson Mnangagwa: 'The Crocodile' wins second term as Zimbabwe president
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66631185

Was there a betting market on this one?

jamesdoyle · August 27

Morning everyone, hoping some of the finance experts on here can help out with a question.

I've got an opportunity to buy a small business (a bookshop). It's certainly viable - it's been running for 13 years, and has been the sole income for my friend who runs it for all that time. It's going to cost around 30-35k. I don't have the cash available, so would have to borrow. Any idea what the best way to finance it would be? Could be a business loan, or we've got plenty of equity in our house (350-400K) to take a small mortgage to cover it. Or something else? Thanks, guys.

NickPalmer · August 27

Casino_Royale said:
Labour got almost 30% in the 2017GE - quite a way ahead of the LDs - and have a fairly articulate and professional candidate. I'm not sure locality matters quite so much in a seat so close to London with plenty of commuters and out of towners.

My guess is the Tories get between 30-35% with lots staying at home. If Labour can top that to between 40-45%, and the LDs don't split it, then they'll win.

I think localness can be exagerrated - people generally vote on how they feel about the parties and perhaps whether the candidate looks reasonable (when I won Broxtowe I was living 1000 miles away and had never heard of the constituency before., but people were in a mood for change. Uxbridge had a reasonable swing to Labour but ULEZ undoubtedly hurt.

I do worry about the non-Tory vote splitting (and even more about the impact on tactical voting elsewhere if they go on attacking each other as they're doing). But having all 3 parties at 2-1 with the independent at 10 feels about right at the moment. The thin Betfair market is swinging wildly at the moment so some scope for trading bets, though I suspect it's mostly readers of PB. (To be open, I have bets on Labour and Tories at the moment - LDs at 1.66.look too short.)

NickPalmer · August 27

NickPalmer said:

Casino_Royale said:
Labour got almost 30% in the 2017GE - quite a way ahead of the LDs - and have a fairly articulate and professional candidate. I'm not sure locality matters quite so much in a seat so close to London with plenty of commuters and out of towners.

My guess is the Tories get between 30-35% with lots staying at home. If Labour can top that to between 40-45%, and the LDs don't split it, then they'll win.
I think localness can be exagerrated - people generally vote on how they feel about the parties and perhaps whether the candidate looks reasonable (when I won Broxtowe I was living 1000 miles away and had never heard of the constituency before., but people were in a mood for change. Uxbridge had a reasonable swing to Labour but ULEZ undoubtedly hurt.

I do worry about the non-Tory vote splitting (and even more about the impact on tactical voting elsewhere if they go on attacking each other as they're doing). But having all 3 parties at 2-1 with the independent at 10 feels about right at the moment. The thin Betfair market is swinging wildly at the moment so some scope for trading bets, though I suspect it's mostly readers of PB. (To be open, I have bets on Labour and Tories at the moment - LDs at 1.66.look too short.)

Betfair does have the Independent - as I write the price is 13, which sounds a bit tight since we don't know if he's even standing, but might be a fair price if he is.

DecrepiterJohnL · August 27

eek said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, given the length of her resignation letter that it’s taken her all the ‘missing’ time to write it!
Difficult if you're used to writing novels full of sex, er romantic, scenes, I expect. Think of all the false starts. (This may be unfair. I have never read any of her works. Not a criticism, just the wrong genre for me.)
Oh well, at least she's used to writing about the effect of massive johnsons...
Quite versatile of her to write so convincingly on the unsatisfying nature of tiny Sunaks.
A hilarious rant, but I suspect not quite the scalpel dissection of Sunak Dorries intends.

She seems most proud of her work on neo natal care. I would like to know more about it. It seems to me that's the sort of issue people should go into politics to address.
For me, it's an illustration of the pointlessness of unforgiveness and bad blood. It was stupid of Dorries not to take Sunak's call - she lost the peerage due to that. But it was even stupider of Sunak to cancel her peerage (let's not kid ourselves it wasn't him), to make some sort of cocky statment of his so-called authority. Because now look at the mess. Dorries is a sometime junior Minister, but Sunak is meant to be PM, and he came in on a ticket of being 'the grown up in the room'. Grown ups deal with these things in a grown up way, and they go away. Sunak dealt with this in a Cameron/Osborne way, and he's got the Cameron/Osborne response - a soundbite he'll now wear like a millstone. He's a blithering idiot.
You make the assumption that Bozo put Nadine’s name down on the list of people who should get a peerage.

It’s perfectly possible that Bozo said to Nadine he would give her a peerage and then didn’t do so…

More likely that Boris told all three of his MP nominees that he had cleared it for them to delay their acceptance until the next election, and then doing no such thing which is why their peerages were blocked. Nadine is not the first person to have come a cropper after trusting Boris Johnson.
https://www.itv.com/news/2023-06-11/who-blocked-dorries-sharma-and-adams-peerages

NickPalmer · August 27

Meanwhile, I see Gina Miller has decided we don't have enough parties...

https://www.trueandfairparty.uk/gina-miller

Luckyguy1983 · August 27

FF43 said:

Stuartinromford said:

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, given the length of her resignation letter that it’s taken her all the ‘missing’ time to write it!
Difficult if you're used to writing novels full of sex, er romantic, scenes, I expect. Think of all the false starts. (This may be unfair. I have never read any of her works. Not a criticism, just the wrong genre for me.)
Oh well, at least she's used to writing about the effect of massive johnsons...
Quite versatile of her to write so convincingly on the unsatisfying nature of tiny Sunaks.
A hilarious rant, but I suspect not quite the scalpel dissection of Sunak Dorries intends.

She seems most proud of her work on neo natal care. I would like to know more about it. It seems to me that's the sort of issue people should go into politics to address.
For me, it's an illustration of the pointlessness of unforgiveness and bad blood. It was stupid of Dorries not to take Sunak's call - she lost the peerage due to that. But it was even stupider of Sunak to cancel her peerage (let's not kid ourselves it wasn't him), to make some sort of cocky statment of his so-called authority. Because now look at the mess. Dorries is a sometime junior Minister, but Sunak is meant to be PM, and he came in on a ticket of being 'the grown up in the room'. Grown ups deal with these things in a grown up way, and they go away. Sunak dealt with this in a Cameron/Osborne way, and he's got the Cameron/Osborne response - a soundbite he'll now wear like a millstone. He's a blithering idiot.
I think Sunak cancelled Dorries' peerage because he didn't want to lose an election, not out of spite. He failed in this case but I suppose he avoided an election in Sharma's seat. So one up compared with not cancelling the peerages.

Johnson's young whatsit presented no such risk, and so got to keep her peerage.
The other thing the Dorries Fiasco (for Fiasco it is, no question) is the danger of seeing everything as a manifestation of bad blood (it's because they hate us) rather than cockup or how the rules work.
I think Sunak world have done better to cancel Johnson's and Truss' entire resignation lists as inappropriate and ride out the storm. He could have at least claimed the moral high ground and to be doing things differently.

As it is, he looks craven. The damage to Sunak might satisfy Dorries, but it's hardly an argument to give her a peerage, or any other public post from now on.

That would invalidate his own resignation honours. As it is I think he'll struggle to get them all through.

FrankBooth · August 27

Why do I have a soft spot for Sunak? Well, like too few politicians, he strikes me as methodical.

Muesli · August 27

franklyn said:
Mid Beds By Election : help please

I cannot find any betting sites which are offering odds on Gareth Mackey, the local independent councillor who is standing for Mid Beds. Looking to place a bet.

[snip]

Sounds like the betting sites are doing you a favour and stopping you from throwing your money away. The three main parties will suck all the oxygen out of the byelection and leave nothing but a few votes in Flitwick for your man Mackey.

This is a straight fight between the Tories and the Lib Dems and the victor will be determined by the extent to which Labour manage to split the anti-Tory vote.

DecrepiterJohnL · August 27

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:
In deeply surprising news:

Emmerson Mnangagwa: 'The Crocodile' wins second term as Zimbabwe president
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66631185
Was there a betting market on this one?

Not that I saw when I looked a week or two back, though my search was not exhaustive and nor did I take the crucial step of asking any bookmaker for a price.

Anabobazina · August 27

If road charging meant using the M25 on a Friday afternoon became viable, I’d be all for it. Would happy pay £50 if my journey to friends in Hampshire for the weekend took the standard 80 minutes rather than the 150 it usually takes on a Friday.

Malmesbury · August 27

jamesdoyle said:
Morning everyone, hoping some of the finance experts on here can help out with a question.

I've got an opportunity to buy a small business (a bookshop). It's certainly viable - it's been running for 13 years, and has been the sole income for my friend who runs it for all that time. It's going to cost around 30-35k. I don't have the cash available, so would have to borrow. Any idea what the best way to finance it would be? Could be a business loan, or we've got plenty of equity in our house (350-400K) to take a small mortgage to cover it. Or something else? Thanks, guys.

Check out the cost of business loans, only if you have smelling salts available.

This one of the reasons business development is so hard in the U.K.

EDIT - if the price of the business is 30-35k, how on Earth was your friend living off it? And if he sells for that, how is he going to replace the income?

FF43 · August 27

jamesdoyle said:
Morning everyone, hoping some of the finance experts on here can help out with a question.

I've got an opportunity to buy a small business (a bookshop). It's certainly viable - it's been running for 13 years, and has been the sole income for my friend who runs it for all that time. It's going to cost around 30-35k. I don't have the cash available, so would have to borrow. Any idea what the best way to finance it would be? Could be a business loan, or we've got plenty of equity in our house (350-400K) to take a small mortgage to cover it. Or something else? Thanks, guys.

Owning your business can be very satisfying albeit a big commitment. No specific advice, but a consideration. Business loans, equity etc give other people the main say over whether that business is viable and your role in it. That might be something to consider if you are looking for a lifestyle business.

OldBasing · August 27

Think Lab are (probably) the value bet for Mid Beds. The seat demographically is closer to Selby. Lots of vibes informing the betting at the moment.

northern_monkey · August 27

One of his topics is Brexit, which he regards as a disaster. “The idea that Britain stands in isolation from the European continent has always been a nonsense. The problem about Brexit is a historical problem. Since the reign of Elizabeth I the consistent policy of [British] governments has been to prevent a single monolithic power from dominating the European continent. It’s why we fought two world wars. It’s the basis of the existence of Nato.

“By leaving the EU we have removed the principal voice against its integration into a single state. We were that voice. We have made it much more likely that this great monolith will arise. We have also guaranteed that we will have absolutely no influence over what it does. This seems to me to be a betrayal of six centuries of careful statesmanship on the spur of a moment. We should be completely ashamed of ourselves.”

https://apple.news/A0_uzx2t5Tkee9ca3zn5qJw

Sumption in the Times. His views during the pandemic were a bit salty for me, but in this area I agree.

You could perhaps infer a degree of suspicion about the EU from Sumption’s language. He is viewing the EU through a lens of British interests; he has a suspicion of this ‘monolith’ that for centuries we have worked to prevent. Which is where we differ. I embrace the monolith, despite its manifest imperfections and frustrations.

I want well-funded public services, with strong environmental protection so we have a pleasant country to live in. I want rational, pragmatic restraints on capitalism and wealth creation, tempering the kind of animal spirits which happily prospered for centuries from slavery and empire, sent children up chimneys and down mines and the poor into workhouses, that used perverted science and morality to justify those things to themselves as they grew fantastically rich. For that mentality still exists.

And, to my mind at least, people with that mindset begat Brexit, and have had their hands on the tiller since Cameron bravely ran away, and they have brought us high taxes, terrible services, a poor economy, shit-filled rivers and beaches, pot-holed roads, an NHS on its knees and the zombie government we currently enjoy. The oft-cited euphemism of ‘supply-chain problems’ from business after business that doesn’t want to alienate the Leavers as prices rise inexorably, the same Leavers who were assured no-one would be foolish enough to take us out of the single market.

Before the referendum I was speaking to a bloke I’ve known for 25 years in the pub. A train driver, trade unionist, an enthusiastic Corbynite Lexiter. He couldn’t wait to vote Leave. It will let us to nationalise everything, he said. Labour will sweep to power on a Corbynite manifesto once we’ve left the EU capitalist viper’s nest. You’re a fool, I told him. If we leave the right-wing of the Tories will go mad. The power will go to their heads and normal people like us will suffer from the carnage they will bring. He wouldn’t listen. I was right.

Beibheirli_C · August 27

jamesdoyle said:
Morning everyone, hoping some of the finance experts on here can help out with a question.

I've got an opportunity to buy a small business (a bookshop). It's certainly viable - it's been running for 13 years, and has been the sole income for my friend who runs it for all that time. It's going to cost around 30-35k. I don't have the cash available, so would have to borrow. Any idea what the best way to finance it would be? Could be a business loan, or we've got plenty of equity in our house (350-400K) to take a small mortgage to cover it. Or something else? Thanks, guys.

First and most importantly - what do you know about selling books, the book business, etc. Is it a general bookshop or a specialist one?

Secondly - why is your friend selling up? Is business on the decline?

Third - have you seen the accounts for (say) the last five years or so? Are profits on the up and and up?

Fourth - will you "inherit" the businesses bank account? Having an active account that is more than 3 years old is a real help in many business situations especially if short-term loans are needed from the bank or other lenders.

My main worry is that if the business is selling for £35k then on the usual basis for business sales it is only making a profit of about £7K

viewcode · August 27

jamesdoyle said:
Morning everyone, hoping some of the finance experts on here can help out with a question.

I've got an opportunity to buy a small business (a bookshop). It's certainly viable - it's been running for 13 years, and has been the sole income for my friend who runs it for all that time. It's going to cost around 30-35k. I don't have the cash available, so would have to borrow. Any idea what the best way to finance it would be? Could be a business loan, or we've got plenty of equity in our house (350-400K) to take a small mortgage to cover it. Or something else? Thanks, guys.

Public sector business loans (provided by central/local govt)
https://www.british-business-bank.co.uk/
https://www.gov.uk/apply-start-up-loan
https://www.gov.uk/business-finance-support

Private sector loan comparison websites
https://www.moneysupermarket.com/business-finance/
https://www.gocompare.com/loans/business/
https://www.fundingoptions.com/lending/business-loans/
https://www.money.co.uk/business-loans/

jamesdoyle · August 27

Beibheirli_C said:

jamesdoyle said:
Morning everyone, hoping some of the finance experts on here can help out with a question.

I've got an opportunity to buy a small business (a bookshop). It's certainly viable - it's been running for 13 years, and has been the sole income for my friend who runs it for all that time. It's going to cost around 30-35k. I don't have the cash available, so would have to borrow. Any idea what the best way to finance it would be? Could be a business loan, or we've got plenty of equity in our house (350-400K) to take a small mortgage to cover it. Or something else? Thanks, guys.
First and most importantly - what do you know about selling books, the book business, etc. Is it a general bookshop or a specialist one?

Secondly - why is your friend selling up? Is business on the decline?

Third - have you seen the accounts for (say) the last five years or so? Are profits on the up and and up?

Fourth - will you "inherit" the businesses bank account? Having an active account that is more than 3 years old is a real help in many business situations especially if short-term loans are needed from the bank or other lenders.

My main worry is that if the business is selling for £35k then on the usual basis for business sales it is only making a profit of about £7K

Good questions.
I did work in and run a bookshop, albeit part of a chain, for about ten years. A few years ago, but something I'd love to get back to.
She's selling because she's decided to move to another part of the country, where she's always wanted to live, and another bookshop has come on the market. Her parents are also retiring there too.
Haven't seen the accounts yet, but she's happy to share info - literally only found out about this yesterday.
Profits are reliable - it's in a good location, with a good local customer base, lots of tourist visitors, and no competition. 17K per year over the last three years.
Inheriting the business bank account - good question! I shall ask her.

Thanks for your points, really helpful.

Richard_Tyndall · August 27

northern_monkey said:
One of his topics is Brexit, which he regards as a disaster. “The idea that Britain stands in isolation from the European continent has always been a nonsense. The problem about Brexit is a historical problem. Since the reign of Elizabeth I the consistent policy of [British] governments has been to prevent a single monolithic power from dominating the European continent. It’s why we fought two world wars. It’s the basis of the existence of Nato.

“By leaving the EU we have removed the principal voice against its integration into a single state. We were that voice. We have made it much more likely that this great monolith will arise. We have also guaranteed that we will have absolutely no influence over what it does. This seems to me to be a betrayal of six centuries of careful statesmanship on the spur of a moment. We should be completely ashamed of ourselves.”

https://apple.news/A0_uzx2t5Tkee9ca3zn5qJw

Sumption in the Times. His views during the pandemic were a bit salty for me, but in this area I agree.

You could perhaps infer a degree of suspicion about the EU from Sumption’s language. He is viewing the EU through a lens of British interests; he has a suspicion of this ‘monolith’ that for centuries we have worked to prevent. Which is where we differ. I embrace the monolith, despite its manifest imperfections and frustrations.

I want well-funded public services, with strong environmental protection so we have a pleasant country to live in. I want rational, pragmatic restraints on capitalism and wealth creation, tempering the kind of animal spirits which happily prospered for centuries from slavery and empire, sent children up chimneys and down mines and the poor into workhouses, that used perverted science and morality to justify those things to themselves as they grew fantastically rich. For that mentality still exists.

And, to my mind at least, people with that mindset begat Brexit, and have had their hands on the tiller since Cameron bravely ran away, and they have brought us high taxes, terrible services, a poor economy, shit-filled rivers and beaches, pot-holed roads, an NHS on its knees and the zombie government we currently enjoy. The oft-cited euphemism of ‘supply-chain problems’ from business after business that doesn’t want to alienate the Leavers as prices rise inexorably, the same Leavers who were assured no-one would be foolish enough to take us out of the single market.

Before the referendum I was speaking to a bloke I’ve known for 25 years in the pub. A train driver, trade unionist, an enthusiastic Corbynite Lexiter. He couldn’t wait to vote Leave. It will let us to nationalise everything, he said. Labour will sweep to power on a Corbynite manifesto once we’ve left the EU capitalist viper’s nest. You’re a fool, I told him. If we leave the right-wing of the Tories will go mad. The power will go to their heads and normal people like us will suffer from the carnage they will bring. He wouldn’t listen. I was right.

Sumption's biggest mistake is his belief that we had any real influence inside the EU or that we were able to prevent its steady progress towards a monolithic entity - which of course, unlike you, I oppose.

We spent 40 plus years inside the EU and did nothing at all to prevent its progress towards a single state. So the fact we are now outside will make not a blind bit of difference beyond the fact it won't include us.

Dura_Ace · August 27

jamesdoyle said:
Morning everyone, hoping some of the finance experts on here can help out with a question.

I've got an opportunity to buy a small business (a bookshop). It's certainly viable - it's been running for 13 years, and has been the sole income for my friend who runs it for all that time. It's going to cost around 30-35k. I don't have the cash available, so would have to borrow. Any idea what the best way to finance it would be? Could be a business loan, or we've got plenty of equity in our house (350-400K) to take a small mortgage to cover it. Or something else? Thanks, guys.

Fast lane to destitution. Fuck it off immediately.

I am not a financial advisor.

bondegezou · August 27

NickPalmer said:
Meanwhile, I see Gina Miller has decided we don't have enough parties...

https://www.trueandfairparty.uk/gina-miller

They’ve said they’ll stand in Mid Beds.

nico679 · August 27

It’s hard for voters on Mid Beds to know which opposition party to vote for and this should make the Tories favourites to hold on.

FF43 · August 27

Beibheirli_C said:

jamesdoyle said:
Morning everyone, hoping some of the finance experts on here can help out with a question.

I've got an opportunity to buy a small business (a bookshop). It's certainly viable - it's been running for 13 years, and has been the sole income for my friend who runs it for all that time. It's going to cost around 30-35k. I don't have the cash available, so would have to borrow. Any idea what the best way to finance it would be? Could be a business loan, or we've got plenty of equity in our house (350-400K) to take a small mortgage to cover it. Or something else? Thanks, guys.
First and most importantly - what do you know about selling books, the book business, etc. Is it a general bookshop or a specialist one?

Secondly - why is your friend selling up? Is business on the decline?

Third - have you seen the accounts for (say) the last five years or so? Are profits on the up and and up?

Fourth - will you "inherit" the businesses bank account? Having an active account that is more than 3 years old is a real help in many business situations especially if short-term loans are needed from the bank or other lenders.

My main worry is that if the business is selling for £35k then on the usual basis for business sales it is only making a profit of about £7K

Endorse the point on the business current account. Add that this needs to have been kept in good order. Firstly because you might want to fund larger payments through an overdraft. Secondly because other credit providing institutions can see how that account has been managed.

nico679 · August 27

bondegezou said:

NickPalmer said:
Meanwhile, I see Gina Miller has decided we don't have enough parties...

https://www.trueandfairparty.uk/gina-miller
They’ve said they’ll stand in Mid Beds.

I like Gina Miller but until the UK changes its voting system these parties are going nowhere and could help enable the Tories .

Richard_Tyndall · August 27

NickPalmer said:
Meanwhile, I see Gina Miller has decided we don't have enough parties...

https://www.trueandfairparty.uk/gina-miller

I don't know why she persists in trying to do politics. She did a single good thing -albeit for the wrong reasons - and now she thinks she is on a crusade.

She should rest on her laurels and realise that her attempts at forming a new party are doomed to failure before they start - not because of her but because of what she is trying to do. Something many others have tried (and failed) to do before from far stronger positions

noneoftheabove · August 27

NickPalmer said:
Meanwhile, I see Gina Miller has decided we don't have enough parties...

https://www.trueandfairparty.uk/gina-miller

Well we probably have enough, it is just that they are the wrong ones....

malcolmg · August 27

kjh said:

MarqueeMark said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act.
Bedford panto?

MarqueeMark said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act.
Bedford panto?
Welcome back @MarqueeMark. You had us worried about you.

Yes , good to see you back Mark

IanB2 · August 27

eek said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

FF43 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, given the length of her resignation letter that it’s taken her all the ‘missing’ time to write it!
Difficult if you're used to writing novels full of sex, er romantic, scenes, I expect. Think of all the false starts. (This may be unfair. I have never read any of her works. Not a criticism, just the wrong genre for me.)
Oh well, at least she's used to writing about the effect of massive johnsons...
Quite versatile of her to write so convincingly on the unsatisfying nature of tiny Sunaks.
A hilarious rant, but I suspect not quite the scalpel dissection of Sunak Dorries intends.

She seems most proud of her work on neo natal care. I would like to know more about it. It seems to me that's the sort of issue people should go into politics to address.
For me, it's an illustration of the pointlessness of unforgiveness and bad blood. It was stupid of Dorries not to take Sunak's call - she lost the peerage due to that. But it was even stupider of Sunak to cancel her peerage (let's not kid ourselves it wasn't him), to make some sort of cocky statment of his so-called authority. Because now look at the mess. Dorries is a sometime junior Minister, but Sunak is meant to be PM, and he came in on a ticket of being 'the grown up in the room'. Grown ups deal with these things in a grown up way, and they go away. Sunak dealt with this in a Cameron/Osborne way, and he's got the Cameron/Osborne response - a soundbite he'll now wear like a millstone. He's a blithering idiot.
You make the assumption that Bozo put Nadine’s name down on the list of people who should get a peerage.

It’s perfectly possible that Bozo said to Nadine he would give her a peerage and then didn’t do so…

Johnson did things along those lines often; he was renowned for promising the same job or position to multiple people, and relying on his usual trick of evading the promise later.

But as I understand it Dorries wanted to be in the list with the promise of a peerage later, but not to resign as an MP straight away? Which can't be done (or at least, the committee decided it couldn't be done).

All the more ironic - and idiotic of her - to then resign in protest! A fact I suspect she only belatedly realised, whereupon she tried to un-resign, until the pressure on her to go became irresistable.

What a numpty!

Sandpit · August 27

bondegezou said:

NickPalmer said:
Meanwhile, I see Gina Miller has decided we don't have enough parties...

https://www.trueandfairparty.uk/gina-miller
They’ve said they’ll stand in Mid Beds.

I’m sure a local Tory donor will offer to pay her deposit!

bondegezou · August 27

If Mackey stands and does well in Mid Beds, I suggest he’ll take votes mainly from Con and LD, so might that be good for Labour?

I think the LibDems are most likely to win, but Labour have the most favourable odds.

Richard_Tyndall · August 27

MarqueeMark said:

kjh said:

MarqueeMark said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act.
Bedford panto?

MarqueeMark said:

OldKingCole said:
Good morning everyone.
So Dorries has finally decided to act.
Bedford panto?
Welcome back @MarqueeMark. You had us worried about you.
Ta. Just been very busy this summer.

I told them not to worry but you know how families are

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