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If LAB had chosen a local for Mid Beds they’d have walked it – politicalbetting.com
If LAB had chosen a local for Mid Beds they’d have walked it – politicalbetting.com
As most PBers, know I live in Bedford only about a mile and a half from the Mid Beds constituency where following the resignation of Nadine Dorries there is to be a by-election.
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My guess is the Tories get between 30-35% with lots staying at home. If Labour can top that to between 40-45%, and the LDs don't split it, then they'll win.
It's certainly that sort of seat.
Unless they pick a complete idiot as candidate, which to be fair with Brighton Labour is not something you can ever rule out, they should walk it.
Heck, the neighbouring seat even elects Lloyd Russell-Moyle.
On national swing in the polls though Labour will have a chance and based on the Selby by election swing would win it. The Tories though may ironically be helped by Dorries trashing Rishi so hard in her resignation statement. They can therefore distance themselves from her ignoring the constituency for the last few months and delaying standing down.
I would not even be surprised if Dorries endorsed the ReformUK candidate in the by election
But the Green vote is absolutely huge (at over 30k+) there, they have a strong activist base, and it's ground-zero for the SKSfanspleaseexplainthis crowd.
There does seem an element of entitlement in the green candidate selection. You’d think, given how strong they are locally, that a good local candidate would have emerged.
So Dorries has finally decided to act. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if, given the length of her resignation letter that it’s taken her all the ‘missing’ time to write it!
Emmerson Mnangagwa: 'The Crocodile' wins second term as Zimbabwe president
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66631185
Lee Rowley was a london councillor but is from Chesterfield now representing NE Derbyshire. I take it this isn't the case for the Lab prospective MP ?
Lucas has a huge personal vote, built up over years. That will disappear to some extent. Labour could well take it, if they select the right candidate. And that wouldn't be Izzard (see c) above).
She seems most proud of her work on neo natal care. I would like to know more about it. It seems to me that's the sort of issue people should go into politics to address.
Do we know anything about Gareth Mackey the independent, who could either be a cat among the pigeons, or completely nowhere once the larger parties get the machines running?
Nonetheless I'm going for LDs to shave off too much of the opposition vote but fall short, something like 35 25 20, for the sheer drama.
Until next week, when I shall change my mind.
My distant, uninformed suspicion is that he does get squeezed, like a hamster meeting three pythons, and that whoever achieves that wins.
Now, that may not have been the best idea, but it's not like the choice was between a happy Dorries and a mad Dorries, she was going to be a vocal opponent either way. So that may have tilted him into punishment mode on the basis it would at least show some dominance, rather than be a punching bag. I imagine he hoped it would garner positive press too, but the Owen appointment really overshadowed that.
Tories in London have caught on to the slippery slope argument, “Labour’s carless society” this week’s line, after it turns out that Khan is, as expected, looking at putting all of the ULEZ cameras to work on some sort of road pricing scheme. MoS with the story. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12448979/Secret-plan-change-drivers-mile-Ulez-start-Labours-carless-society.html
I suspect this is the best opportunity to beat the odds if you get involved in the campaign. Obviously if you are involved in any campaign you have a better idea, but this one I think gives a better opportunity than others to get a difference between a knowledgeable punter and one who isn't.
Many countries have toll roads - I'm not saying we should emulate them but there's a discussion to be had.
Alba NOT standing in Rutherglen. That will help the SNP a wee bit.
Plus some might have - I've heard of her and I'm not voting Green. Extremists disguised as cuddly for the most part (it'll be interesting if winning a load of Nimby council seats in the Shires might alter their balance).
Johnson's young whatsit presented no such risk, and so got to keep her peerage.
It’s perfectly possible that Bozo said to Nadine he would give her a peerage and then didn’t do so…
I cannot find any betting sites which are offering odds on Gareth Mackey, the local independent councillor who is standing for Mid Beds. Looking to place a bet.
You can get odds on Monster Raving Loony and Reform but not on an independent.
The local independent group swept to power in the local lections for Central Beds in May (there is a major overlap of the constituency and the local authority area). Gareth is a longstanding independent councillor and town mayor for Flitwick, the largest town in the constituency. He and his wife both live and work in the constituency, and he is well-known and popular locally.
The Conservatives have chosen the Bedfordshire Police and Crime Commissioner, who has not particularly covered himself in glory in that role. The Lib Dems, lost the mayoral election in Bedford borough (which abuts on Mid Beds), in May, having held the role for fourteen years. This is a very rural constituency and not exactly Labour territory.
Anyway if anyone can direct me to a betting site, I will be very grateful. If I win, the money will go to charity.
Might we have ourselves a four-way marginal here?
Independent 16/1
No need to send the profits to charity. That's silly.
Your spend, your risk, your loss if you lose, your profit if you gain, your responsibility either way. All I ask is that if you lose you don't blame somebody else: we have enough of that **** these days...
As it is, he looks craven. The damage to Sunak might satisfy Dorries, but it's hardly an argument to give her a peerage, or any other public post from now on.
I've got an opportunity to buy a small business (a bookshop). It's certainly viable - it's been running for 13 years, and has been the sole income for my friend who runs it for all that time. It's going to cost around 30-35k. I don't have the cash available, so would have to borrow. Any idea what the best way to finance it would be? Could be a business loan, or we've got plenty of equity in our house (350-400K) to take a small mortgage to cover it. Or something else? Thanks, guys.
I do worry about the non-Tory vote splitting (and even more about the impact on tactical voting elsewhere if they go on attacking each other as they're doing). But having all 3 parties at 2-1 with the independent at 10 feels about right at the moment. The thin Betfair market is swinging wildly at the moment so some scope for trading bets, though I suspect it's mostly readers of PB. (To be open, I have bets on Labour and Tories at the moment - LDs at 1.66.look too short.)
https://www.itv.com/news/2023-06-11/who-blocked-dorries-sharma-and-adams-peerages
https://www.trueandfairparty.uk/gina-miller
This is a straight fight between the Tories and the Lib Dems and the victor will be determined by the extent to which Labour manage to split the anti-Tory vote.
This one of the reasons business development is so hard in the U.K.
EDIT - if the price of the business is 30-35k, how on Earth was your friend living off it? And if he sells for that, how is he going to replace the income?
“By leaving the EU we have removed the principal voice against its integration into a single state. We were that voice. We have made it much more likely that this great monolith will arise. We have also guaranteed that we will have absolutely no influence over what it does. This seems to me to be a betrayal of six centuries of careful statesmanship on the spur of a moment. We should be completely ashamed of ourselves.”
https://apple.news/A0_uzx2t5Tkee9ca3zn5qJw
Sumption in the Times. His views during the pandemic were a bit salty for me, but in this area I agree.
You could perhaps infer a degree of suspicion about the EU from Sumption’s language. He is viewing the EU through a lens of British interests; he has a suspicion of this ‘monolith’ that for centuries we have worked to prevent. Which is where we differ. I embrace the monolith, despite its manifest imperfections and frustrations.
I want well-funded public services, with strong environmental protection so we have a pleasant country to live in. I want rational, pragmatic restraints on capitalism and wealth creation, tempering the kind of animal spirits which happily prospered for centuries from slavery and empire, sent children up chimneys and down mines and the poor into workhouses, that used perverted science and morality to justify those things to themselves as they grew fantastically rich. For that mentality still exists.
And, to my mind at least, people with that mindset begat Brexit, and have had their hands on the tiller since Cameron bravely ran away, and they have brought us high taxes, terrible services, a poor economy, shit-filled rivers and beaches, pot-holed roads, an NHS on its knees and the zombie government we currently enjoy. The oft-cited euphemism of ‘supply-chain problems’ from business after business that doesn’t want to alienate the Leavers as prices rise inexorably, the same Leavers who were assured no-one would be foolish enough to take us out of the single market.
Before the referendum I was speaking to a bloke I’ve known for 25 years in the pub. A train driver, trade unionist, an enthusiastic Corbynite Lexiter. He couldn’t wait to vote Leave. It will let us to nationalise everything, he said. Labour will sweep to power on a Corbynite manifesto once we’ve left the EU capitalist viper’s nest. You’re a fool, I told him. If we leave the right-wing of the Tories will go mad. The power will go to their heads and normal people like us will suffer from the carnage they will bring. He wouldn’t listen. I was right.
Secondly - why is your friend selling up? Is business on the decline?
Third - have you seen the accounts for (say) the last five years or so? Are profits on the up and and up?
Fourth - will you "inherit" the businesses bank account? Having an active account that is more than 3 years old is a real help in many business situations especially if short-term loans are needed from the bank or other lenders.
My main worry is that if the business is selling for £35k then on the usual basis for business sales it is only making a profit of about £7K
https://www.british-business-bank.co.uk/
https://www.gov.uk/apply-start-up-loan
https://www.gov.uk/business-finance-support
Private sector loan comparison websites
https://www.moneysupermarket.com/business-finance/
https://www.gocompare.com/loans/business/
https://www.fundingoptions.com/lending/business-loans/
https://www.money.co.uk/business-loans/
I did work in and run a bookshop, albeit part of a chain, for about ten years. A few years ago, but something I'd love to get back to.
She's selling because she's decided to move to another part of the country, where she's always wanted to live, and another bookshop has come on the market. Her parents are also retiring there too.
Haven't seen the accounts yet, but she's happy to share info - literally only found out about this yesterday.
Profits are reliable - it's in a good location, with a good local customer base, lots of tourist visitors, and no competition. 17K per year over the last three years.
Inheriting the business bank account - good question! I shall ask her.
Thanks for your points, really helpful.
We spent 40 plus years inside the EU and did nothing at all to prevent its progress towards a single state. So the fact we are now outside will make not a blind bit of difference beyond the fact it won't include us.
I am not a financial advisor.
She should rest on her laurels and realise that her attempts at forming a new party are doomed to failure before they start - not because of her but because of what she is trying to do. Something many others have tried (and failed) to do before from far stronger positions
But as I understand it Dorries wanted to be in the list with the promise of a peerage later, but not to resign as an MP straight away? Which can't be done (or at least, the committee decided it couldn't be done).
All the more ironic - and idiotic of her - to then resign in protest! A fact I suspect she only belatedly realised, whereupon she tried to un-resign, until the pressure on her to go became irresistable.
What a numpty!
I think the LibDems are most likely to win, but Labour have the most favourable odds.