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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rob Ford and Matthew Goodwin have news of UKIP’s private po
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rob Ford and Matthew Goodwin have news of UKIP’s private polling in Wythenshawe
Today they focus on tomorrow’s Wythenshawe by-election and why the purples have had to scale down expectations. I found these aspects very interesting:-
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http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/nigel-farage-the-wythenshawe-byelection-has-been-as-dirty-as-they-come-9122243.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10633632/OPEC-says-North-Sea-oil-output-to-hit-new-lows.html
http://www.dorkingandleatherheadadvertiser.co.uk/Chicken-cleaned-Michael-Portillo/story-20567185-detail/story.html
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/06/muslims-ukip-gerard-batten-mep-charter
[I find it objectionable - even as an Englishman - that "whisky" gets a wiggly red line when I type it, but "whiskey" does not]
But Nigel - your party will do more to ease Labour back into power than Labour themselves....
There is undeniably a large number of disaffected Tories who parade under the hell-in-a-handbasket banner but most of those will return to the fold come May2015.
It is the likes of @isam & @Viceroy_of_Orange that you left-ers need to worry about.
Did Farage really say that? Oh dear. Barcoded activists tailing posties to steal ballot papers from old dears. It doesn't sound far fetched at all.
LOL
While this is obviously true, to come second in this seat would be a considerable advance for UKIP from the 5th place they found themselves in at GE2010, and they will hope to have made a lot of progress in developing a local party organisation and contacting local voters during the by-election campaign.
It's an open question as to whether UKIP are able to develop this sort of local organisation sufficiently to win any seats at the 2015GE, but they can only make progress from where they are, not from where they want to be.
Still, I would have thought it was almost certain that at the next election UKIP will save more deposits than the Lib Dems, but win many fewer seats, possibly none. That would have to be frustrating for them.
Wins are certainly better than second places all else being equal, but the cost of achieving those wins may or may not be worth the benefit.
After all, the Lib Dems entering government will almost certainly cost them MPs - did that make it a bad move? Not necessarily; they traded future election losses against current power. Whether it was a bad move depends on what they do with that power. So with UKIP. If they can achieve more by piling up second and third places and affecting how the parties in first and second think, then it may well be worth the opportunity cost of a few MPs shouting from the sidelines.
As for Wythenshaw, what UKIP really does need is second. Failing to beat the Conservatives really would be seen as a backwards step.
There's still no sign whatsoever of them going back to their 2010 levels of 3.1% though.
The Cameroons are living in a fantasy world if they actually believe that.
And I'm afraid you also commit the common left wing sin of speaking on behalf of but not quite understanding the - shall we call them by way of shorthand - White Working Class. Goodness knows where you live and work but there are plenty of neighbourhoods where UKIP has found willing recruits.
Wythenshaw is still a safe labour seat not prime kipper territory even if they do seem to be making a mess of it right now.
*chortle*
West Coast main line to be closed at 7pm.
As Wythenshawe is proving, even when they're able to concentrate national resources, UKIP simply doesn't have capacity to win election via an intense ground game. They would be making a massive strategic blunder if they decided that they ought to try.
I agree Mick. We have the cheapest power in Europe and a looming energy nightmare. Price controls are NOT the way ahead. All the parties are utterly reckless and childlike on energy policy.
Kill the green subsidies and enforce proper open free market competition. The absolute No.1 objective of the Dept of Energy should be the reliable and affordable provision of electricty - all else is secondary and jettisonable. Frack for shale. Invest in the north sea. Build some non-uranium/pressurised water nuclear plants. Build some clean coal plants. Available. Affordable. Nowt else. Not that hard to understand.
In an exclusive interview with The Telegraph in October, Opec Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri warned that North Sea "oilfields" were depleted and that an independent Scotland would be unthinkable.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10633632/OPEC-says-North-Sea-oil-output-to-hit-new-lows.html
Nice to see the Tele according respect to one of Gadaffi's ex flunkies. They're not usually so generous/gullible (delete to taste) when it comes to the Libya connection.
In his (and other leftwingers') mind, UKIP's is "incorrect thinking" and something that the lumpen proletariat wouldn't, no make that shouldn't, even consider.
Except they do and this confuses people such as Hugh.
God I do apologise PB Mods but oh for tim's return and some decent, substantive left wing ideological arguments.
Are you sticking by that version?
Yes or No?
EDIT
Nah, you don't deserve another chance.
"I never said at any point" actually turns out to be..
"I might get dragged back for certain big events (like the Scottish referendum), or, more likely, if certain other posters get banned or move on"
Would you like all the rest where you hurl abuse hither and yon because nobody will do as you petulantly demand? There's plenty of it.
Feel free to weasel away with excuses now.
The UK used much of its oil wealth to transform our economy after the train wreck that was the collapse of industry in the 70s. The record employment we benefit from today is a direct result of the decisions taken in the 80s to use oil revenues to support that transformation.
There have been - and continue to be - some serious errors made in the way we discourage exploration by continually changing the tax regime for oil companies and both main parties have been guilty of that in the past. But the idea that the UK could ever have used our il revenues in the way the Norwegians did is just fanciful.
Mind you, that applies to the UK as a whole. Scotland with its much smaller population and much closer in size to Norway would have been another matter entirely and it is entirely possible that they could indeed have done what the Norwegians did if they had had the opportunity.
http://order-order.com/2014/02/12/farage-loves-drugs/
It is all too easy to forget just how competently HMS United Kingdom has been sailed under Cap'n Cam and Chief Navigator Os.
Had the two been around in 1912, the RMS Titanic would still be afloat and plying its trade between Southampton and New York.
And poor little Ed, thinking he is Cap'n Cam's iceberg. As big a threat to safe shipping as the lump of ice in Mr. Brooke's Black Bush is to good taste.
Scotland needs a high oil price as existing production gets a higher cashflow and the reserves / new projects picture looks healthier. What is indisputable is that annual total production flows are in decline. There are quite a number of projects coming along that will help flatten the decline and stretch it out (such as Claire and Schiehalion). Let's hope for a very long time. But if the oil price were to collapse for some reason (Shia Iraq/Iran deliberately overproducing to drive it down and ruin sunni Saudi Arabia, oil shale bonanza goes global, someone invents an electric car battery that doesn't suck, etc) then Scotland's economic prospects would take a sudden nosedive.
Didn't Nostradamus have a prophesy about 'The tin islands of St. George half sunk'?
No wonder the Scots are thinking about going independent. Hell, sometimes I find myself hoping wistfully about northern England breaking away, so that we're not trampled over by the will of middle-class darlings from the Home Counties.
But since you seem to want to keep raising it, knock yourself out.
See who comes out best after this little lot and whether someone who got on their high horse about leaving because they said things weren't being done in an "acceptable manner" has any right to start whining again now.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/06/13/why-i-have-had-a-punt-at-16-1-that-theresa-may-will-be-next-pm/
(but I do genuinely wonder how you some and some other posters can even remember let alone quote what other posters have said. Are you keeping a database? A little black book of who said what? I can't remember what I said myself 10 minutes ago let alone what you said this morning. This ability is either very impressive or very scary).
What an utterly juvenile and stupid point. Talk about willful misunderstanding.
You can keep the pound. I expect a separate London currency could just about survive.
Did OGH actually bother to read the article he's linked or did he just scan it for a piece he could spin through his yellow stained glasses? His propaganda is becoming even more bizarre......
Ford and Goodwin confirm the obvious. UKIP had no chance of winning this seat (despite the spinning of various blue and yellow pundits). So they are just like the Tories and Libdems in that seat go figure.......!
Do you see the very statement you quoted? Do you see how it includes the words "or move on"? Yes? Well that means that I said there was a way that I could be back despite him not being banned. See? So the idea that I said I wouldn't be back until he was banned is incorrect. As much as you try to throw insulting words about, you can't change the laws of logic.
I have never disputed that I called for the guy to be banned. I think that saying other posters salivate at child abuse really goes beyond the basic requirement for civil discourse, even in a liberally moderated forum. I understand you struggle to appreciate civil discourse, since the vast majority of your posts just involve mocking others, so I won't push on this point. Conveying the meanings from sentence structure seems difficult enough.
I think the Scottish Government’s timetable is not realistic. One sufficient reason that it’s not realistic is their principal counter-party will be the government of the rest of the UK (rUK), as it becomes. The government of the rest of the UK, as we all know, runs until May 2015 and then there will be another government whose composition we don’t know. The next UK government may have different policies, priorities, different attitudes to such questions as ... the currency and other enormous questions affecting the relationship between Scotland and rUK.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/feb/12/mps-question-welfare-and-housing-ministers-over-bedroom-tax-politics-live-blog
This shows you who with very telling shifts for labour, the tories and the kippers.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
The bit you are looking for is when the kippers move away from 5% and where the lines start to shift and diverge dramatically just as labour and the tories seemed to be heading for a crossover.
Osbrowne's omnishambles.
If UKIP don't win the Euros, from a betting perspective you could say it was disappointing as they are a 45% chance. Even those odds suggest they are more likely not to win than they are to win.
If a by election were declared in a seat like South or North Thanet, or Boston & Skegness, and UKIP were Even money favs to win and came second, that would be terrible. But coming second in Wythenshawe???? Crazy talk
I would be genuinely shocked if the SNP did not know this. Of course they do. However, it obviously does not suit their purposes to say so. The only thing they are interested in right now is getting that Yes. Should they be successful, their positions on absolutely everything to do with separation will change the following day.
The middle class in London are a lefty cohort. In fact I think London is the only region where ABs are solidly red. You do need us. We are your friends!
You couldn't afford it sunshine. In order to finance itself an independent north of England would have to go through an austerity that would make what's happening now look like a picnic.
Those middle class darlings pay your benefits
The timescales also potentially interact with the EU renegotiation and referendum, if we have a Conservative government as well as a Scottish Yes vote. The idea of simultaneously negotiating both would be a mandarin's nightmare, I imagine. Still, I guess the double is a very remote possibility.
More widely, in respect of other issues like the currency, I think the point is more that the SNP seem to have left plenty of exposed flank which the other side can attack.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_London
Full marks to Crosby on repackaging the effete public schoolboy image. Expect a Tory lead amongst women voters anytime soon.
Mr. Crosby, whereabouts are you? We've got a fair bit of wind, but thankfully nothing quite as horrendous as elsewhere.
More to the point, the current climate change induced weather has caused even more problems.My concern is that are these useless old Etonians competent enough to deal with it?
General Election @UKELECTIONS2015 3m
There are currently 42,000 homes in S Wales, 8,100 in the South West and 10,000 homes in the West Midlands currently without power
#ukstorm
When have they ever been disappointed?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product
Thats why GDP is such a poor measure of prosperity because it can be influenced by profligate government.