If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
Have you really not got anything better to do?
Man posting on a political website on a Sunday afternoon asks man posting on a political website on a Sunday afternoon if he has not got anything better to do.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
What do you think Russia wants? Is what Russia wants in our interests in the short-term, medium-term and long-term? Would a victory for Russia in Ukraine help them towards their desires?
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
It is not bogged down.
It is moving slowly and deliberately.
It’s called asymmetric attritional warfare.
I know you are frustrated that there are no dramatic breakthroughs and exciting stories
But they are getting close to being able to interdict the coastal highway that supplies Crimea. They’ve also been attacking the various bridges. Yesterday there were reports that they have an established position on the left bank of the Diepner.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
China would be perfectly happy to see Putin lose as long as somebody even more pliable to their interests replaced him. Not only would that give them more access to Siberia but it would leave Mongolia surrounded and North Korea without other allies.
Nightmare scenario for them is a Russian defeat, the return of the democracy and an attempted rapprochement with the West.
Fortunately for them (rather less so for Russia) it's also a very unlikely scenario.
It is important to remember that the Chinese government is composed of factions. Xi is more in command than most of his predecessors, but he isn’t a lone tyrant.
The invade-Taiwan-soon faction will see a Russian defeat by the West as a calamity for their plans, for example.
The restocking of munitions in the West in general and Taiwan and South Korea in particular has an interesting parallel with the Korean war. The US and the West in general were running down their conventional militaries until the Korean War kicked off.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
Given that the lines are moving very little, a continuation seems to be fairly against Ukrainian interests to me.
If I may offer some unalloyed good news as a counterpoint to all this, my plum tree - planted in lockdown - has so far this August yielded 4lbs of plums, with at least as many to come, and they are possibly the most delicious fruit I have ever tasted. An upside to a wet July?
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
I never said you're a Putinist. And I do read lots of articles, thanks. If I may respond in kind, I might suggest you watch Perun's latest (very balanced) video that was linked to earlier.
Please do link
Here you go. It's very interesting, particularly the bit at the beginning where they chew over Russia's desires.
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
The infuriating paradox that is PB.com. Unable to resolve the global refugee problem yet bouncing back immediately to thrash out something definitive on the different types of milk.
Indeed. With exactly the same tine of seriousness and mild fury.
The small boat discussions are proper dialogues of the deaf though, like the Brexit and trans toilet ones. I prefer it when we discuss issues where’s there’s a broader and more unpredictable set of views and people are open to persuasion, like election predictions, US politics, Tory leadership, are Labour any good, house building etc.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
Given that the lines are moving very little, a continuation seems to be fairly against Ukrainian interests to me.
A pause would merely give Russia time to rearm and try again, as we saw after 2014. Russia has broken every treaty and every ceasefire it has ever signed, so it can't be negotiated with in good faith.
Ukraine has to defeat Russia and make them think any future invasion really, really won't be worth it* to avoid being under constant threat.
Whether they can achieve that is a different question, but I can quite understand why they keep fighting.
*and as a side point, it will probably hope defeat leads to Russian influence in Transnistria and Belarus collapsing too, to ease the pressure elsewhere.
If I may offer some unalloyed good news as a counterpoint to all this, my plum tree - planted in lockdown - has so far this August yielded 4lbs of plums, with at least as many to come, and they are possibly the most delicious fruit I have ever tasted. An upside to a wet July?
By contrast, my raspberries have been rather disappointing this year. Last year I made about 10lb of jam, this year barely enough for one.
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
China would be perfectly happy to see Putin lose as long as somebody even more pliable to their interests replaced him. Not only would that give them more access to Siberia but it would leave Mongolia surrounded and North Korea without other allies.
Nightmare scenario for them is a Russian defeat, the return of the democracy and an attempted rapprochement with the West.
Fortunately for them (rather less so for Russia) it's also a very unlikely scenario.
It is important to remember that the Chinese government is composed of factions. Xi is more in command than most of his predecessors, but he isn’t a lone tyrant.
The invade-Taiwan-soon faction will see a Russian defeat by the West as a calamity for their plans, for example.
The restocking of munitions in the West in general and Taiwan and South Korea in particular has an interesting parallel with the Korean war. The US and the West in general were running down their conventional militaries until the Korean War kicked off.
That latter point is very important IMO. The 'west' were reducing their militaries; this war has led them to upscaling them and examining new capabilities. China has a massive amount of new military capability coming online, especially naval, and given their apparent economic problems, it might be a case of going for Taiwan now, or not for another decade or more.
I bet Xi is *really* pi**ed off with Putin. The current situation offers China some opportunities, but maybe not in the direction he wanted.
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
I never said you're a Putinist. And I do read lots of articles, thanks. If I may respond in kind, I might suggest you watch Perun's latest (very balanced) video that was linked to earlier.
Please do link
Here you go. It's very interesting, particularly the bit at the beginning where they chew over Russia's desires.
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
Going via Belarus would be an interesting gambit, and one I don't think the west would countenance. Putin placing nukes on Belarussian territory somewhat complicates matters, even if they remain in Putin's control.
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
Leaving aside the geography of the Ukrainian/Belarus border is not the best for military manoeuvres - which was to Ukraine's advantage in the attack on Kyiv - Zelensky would be mad to take any action that might bring Belarus into the war, particularly since it would infuriate the Americans.
I suspect in any case you're misjudging his strategic aim. It seems to be to isolate Crimea and force the Russians out of it in the belief they will then lose interest in Eastern Ukraine.
Whether he's right or not I don't know, but it's at least logical. Russia does seem unreasonably obsessed with the Crimea.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
Given that the lines are moving very little, a continuation seems to be fairly against Ukrainian interests to me.
A pause would merely give Russia time to rearm and try again, as we saw after 2014. Russia has broken every treaty and every ceasefire it has ever signed, so it can't be negotiated with in good faith.
Ukraine has to defeat Russia and make them think any future invasion really, really won't be worth it to avoid being under constant threat.
Whether they can achieve that is a different question, but I can quite understand why they keep fighting.
They are not defeating them, and I don't think the US is prepared to give them the weapons that they need (if such weapons exist) to drive Russia back to its pre-Crimea borders. As discussed, the US is benefitting from a slow, smouldering conflict that chews up Russia's forces and armaments. The trouble is, it's taking place in Ukraine and the country is going to become more and more of a shithole the longer it goes on.
If I may offer some unalloyed good news as a counterpoint to all this, my plum tree - planted in lockdown - has so far this August yielded 4lbs of plums, with at least as many to come, and they are possibly the most delicious fruit I have ever tasted. An upside to a wet July?
By contrast, my raspberries have been rather disappointing this year. Last year I made about 10lb of jam, this year barely enough for one.
Sorry to hear that. I always think raspberries hardy little buggers which don't necessarily need a lot of sun to thrive, but perhaps I am wrong?
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
*Wincastrian? Wykehamian? WHatever they are called ...
Old Woks.
Redolent of sesame. But it might be a lively election campaign.
It does remove Mercer’s USP there and being a Navy seat rather than Army then advantage Labour.
Never mind just naval, Plymouth is Royal Marines hq - Stonehouse Barracks in Durnford Street
Lefty Wykehamists are a thing, what with Crossman and Milne
And Gaitskell, Stafford Cripps, Giles Radice (who?) and that standard bearer for Labour, Oswald Mosely.
Mosley
Infuriatingly hard to get more granular info on some of these people, there's Wykehamists and Wykehamists. Biographies could at least say coll/commoner/OTH
*) Putin sees this as a war against the wider west. *) A victory for Russia is one that undermines the existing world order and gives Russia an upper hand against the west. *) Regime security is an issue, and also an objective. *) Putin probably does not differentiate between Russia and himself. *) This is a struggle for Russia's status as a great power, reversing the events of 1991 when the USSR collapsed.
And many more goodies.
This is why the 'west' needs to keep supporting Ukraine; Ukraine is just a means to an end for him.
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
Going via Belarus would be an interesting gambit, and one I don't think the west would countenance. Putin placing nukes on Belarussian territory somewhat complicates matters, even if they remain in Putin's control.
Korea was won because MacArthur went "fuck it" and went around, landing at Inchon. Gulf War Ii was won because Tommy Franks went "fuck it" and drove tanks thru the desert. France was won because the Germans went "fuck it" and went thru Belgium. They need to find another route because they can't keep demining Zaporizhizhia Oblast at the rate of one Ukrainian foot per one foot of Ukraine.
He comes across as elitist and out of touch, because he is.
Have you spoken to him? I have, and he really isn't. Or at least he wasn't back in 2020...
I've never spoken to him but I can listen to the words coming out of his mouth and the tone with which he employs them. I'm sure he can seem very nice in person, almost all politicians do, it's one of the typical characteristics of people who go into this line of work. I have spoken to Boris Johnson and David Cameron, among others, and they were very nice to talk to, but that doesn't stop them from being over-privileged, arrogant w*nkers with no real knowledge of, or interest in, the lives of ordinary people. Sunak is just another posh boy who doesn't know the price of a pint of milk.
The out of touch bit is thinking anyone knows the price of a pint of milk, it's a supermarket essential you never buy separately.
Have you spoken to him? is not a useful question though unless he's going to sit down with each individual voter.
£1.65 for 4 pints, down from £1.75 for 4 pints a few weeks ago.
I absolutely do pick it up off the shelf separately from other items (I might pick up butter or cream on same aisle, but only one item at a time normally) and see the price when I do.
People who have to budget tend to check prices as they go along.
My organic gets delivered by milkman and paid through bank, imagine a lot more than £1.65
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
Given that the lines are moving very little, a continuation seems to be fairly against Ukrainian interests to me.
That's because you don't care about Ukraine's interests Putinguy.
Any movement of the lines liberates Ukrainian land. Something your ilk claimed was impossible.
*Wincastrian? Wykehamian? WHatever they are called ...
Old Woks.
Redolent of sesame. But it might be a lively election campaign.
It does remove Mercer’s USP there and being a Navy seat rather than Army then advantage Labour.
Never mind just naval, Plymouth is Royal Marines hq - Stonehouse Barracks in Durnford Street
Lefty Wykehamists are a thing, what with Crossman and Milne
And Gaitskell, Stafford Cripps, Giles Radice (who?) and that standard bearer for Labour, Oswald Mosely.
Mosley
Infuriatingly hard to get more granular info on some of these people, there's Wykehamists and Wykehamists. Biographies could at least say coll/commoner/OTH
There is probably a way of finding out from school but I would quite like to raise the money to have a definitive biog of woks made. I don’t know if you have perused this:
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
Because you are continuously purveying doom porn.
Claims that Ukraine are running out of people just isn't backed by reality and is Putinist propaganda we should get from those registering on a Saturday for 15-40 posts in before the ban, not you.
If I may offer some unalloyed good news as a counterpoint to all this, my plum tree - planted in lockdown - has so far this August yielded 4lbs of plums, with at least as many to come, and they are possibly the most delicious fruit I have ever tasted. An upside to a wet July?
By contrast, my raspberries have been rather disappointing this year. Last year I made about 10lb of jam, this year barely enough for one.
Sorry to hear that. I always think raspberries hardy little buggers which don't necessarily need a lot of sun to thrive, but perhaps I am wrong?
Out walking this afternoon I met a man with a bucketful of blackberries. He said there was a good crop because of sun during the flowering stage and plenty of water during the growth of the fruit. Not being a botanist I could not comment but it seems sensible.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
Given that the lines are moving very little, a continuation seems to be fairly against Ukrainian interests to me.
A pause would merely give Russia time to rearm and try again, as we saw after 2014. Russia has broken every treaty and every ceasefire it has ever signed, so it can't be negotiated with in good faith.
Ukraine has to defeat Russia and make them think any future invasion really, really won't be worth it to avoid being under constant threat.
Whether they can achieve that is a different question, but I can quite understand why they keep fighting.
They are not defeating them, and I don't think the US is prepared to give them the weapons that they need (if such weapons exist) to drive Russia back to its pre-Crimea borders. As discussed, the US is benefitting from a slow, smouldering conflict that chews up Russia's forces and armaments. The trouble is, it's taking place in Ukraine and the country is going to become more and more of a shithole the longer it goes on.
The bonus though is it is now taking place in occupied territories and they are liberating land.
Better to be liberating land which can be rebuilt, than to be losing ever more land to the villains.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
Given that the lines are moving very little, a continuation seems to be fairly against Ukrainian interests to me.
That's because you don't care about Ukraine's interests Putinguy.
Any movement of the lines liberates Ukrainian land. Something your ilk claimed was impossible.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
Given that the lines are moving very little, a continuation seems to be fairly against Ukrainian interests to me.
A pause would merely give Russia time to rearm and try again, as we saw after 2014. Russia has broken every treaty and every ceasefire it has ever signed, so it can't be negotiated with in good faith.
Ukraine has to defeat Russia and make them think any future invasion really, really won't be worth it to avoid being under constant threat.
Whether they can achieve that is a different question, but I can quite understand why they keep fighting.
They are not defeating them, and I don't think the US is prepared to give them the weapons that they need (if such weapons exist) to drive Russia back to its pre-Crimea borders. As discussed, the US is benefitting from a slow, smouldering conflict that chews up Russia's forces and armaments. The trouble is, it's taking place in Ukraine and the country is going to become more and more of a shithole the longer it goes on.
The bonus though is it is now taking place in occupied territories and they are liberating land.
Better to be liberating land which can be rebuilt, than to be losing ever more land to the villains.
The Ukrainians are advancing South thru Zaporizhizhia Oblast, away from Orikhiv. They have liberated about 15-30 km in three months
During the same period, the Russians are advancing west thru the Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts towards Lyman, and have taken about the same or slightly more.
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
Leaving aside the geography of the Ukrainian/Belarus border is not the best for military manoeuvres - which was to Ukraine's advantage in the attack on Kyiv - Zelensky would be mad to take any action that might bring Belarus into the war, particularly since it would infuriate the Americans.
I suspect in any case you're misjudging his strategic aim. It seems to be to isolate Crimea and force the Russians out of it in the belief they will then lose interest in Eastern Ukraine.
Whether he's right or not I don't know, but it's at least logical. Russia does seem unreasonably obsessed with the Crimea.
Besides Belarus is in the complete wrong direction of the front lines anyway. Ukraine have already successfully liberated all the occupied land bordering Belarus so where exactly would they be going via Belarus?
Sending their troops into Vonoezh Oblast or Volgograd Oblast sort of region within Russia seems like the best way to detour around the front.
Unfortunately Ukraine are fighting with one hand tied behind their back so bring the front lines into Russia itself seems unlikely as it stands.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
Given that the lines are moving very little, a continuation seems to be fairly against Ukrainian interests to me.
A pause would merely give Russia time to rearm and try again, as we saw after 2014. Russia has broken every treaty and every ceasefire it has ever signed, so it can't be negotiated with in good faith.
Ukraine has to defeat Russia and make them think any future invasion really, really won't be worth it to avoid being under constant threat.
Whether they can achieve that is a different question, but I can quite understand why they keep fighting.
They are not defeating them, and I don't think the US is prepared to give them the weapons that they need (if such weapons exist) to drive Russia back to its pre-Crimea borders. As discussed, the US is benefitting from a slow, smouldering conflict that chews up Russia's forces and armaments. The trouble is, it's taking place in Ukraine and the country is going to become more and more of a shithole the longer it goes on.
The bonus though is it is now taking place in occupied territories and they are liberating land.
Better to be liberating land which can be rebuilt, than to be losing ever more land to the villains.
The Ukrainians are advancing South thru Zaporizhizhia Oblast, away from Orikhiv. They have liberated about 15-30 km in three months
During the same period, the Russians are advancing west thru the Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts towards Lyman, and have taken about the same or slightly more.
It's WW1 again.
Do you have a source please on these alleged Russian advances?
And yes Ukrainians are advancing South towards Crimea. That is critically useful and strategic for the war and they need to continue to be supported to continue their success.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
Given that the lines are moving very little, a continuation seems to be fairly against Ukrainian interests to me.
That's because you don't care about Ukraine's interests Putinguy.
Any movement of the lines liberates Ukrainian land. Something your ilk claimed was impossible.
Slow but steady wins the race.
I do love a bit of Right on Right action
The odd thing on Twitter is how the most vocal and ranty pro-Russian posters are in almost equal parts self-described “f* Biden, restoring family values and battling woke” and people with names like hammers and sickles in their profiles who bang on about eliminating the Kulaks.
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
Because you are continuously purveying doom porn.
Claims that Ukraine are running out of people just isn't backed by reality and is Putinist propaganda we should get from those registering on a Saturday for 15-40 posts in before the ban, not you.
I’ve been to Ukraine and I’ve seen all the men on crutches, missing limbs, etc. They are now sending men in their 50s to the front line. They are absolutely having difficulties with manpower
Because Russia is 3-4 times as big in population, and now Ukraine is trying to attack through the worst minefields in military history
If I may offer some unalloyed good news as a counterpoint to all this, my plum tree - planted in lockdown - has so far this August yielded 4lbs of plums, with at least as many to come, and they are possibly the most delicious fruit I have ever tasted. An upside to a wet July?
Yes, my plums are very good this year, and look as if the sun will ripen them nicely as it dries off.
Apples and pears looking good, but blackcurrants very poor. Worst year I have had from them. Bit early for blackberry assessment.
If I may offer some unalloyed good news as a counterpoint to all this, my plum tree - planted in lockdown - has so far this August yielded 4lbs of plums, with at least as many to come, and they are possibly the most delicious fruit I have ever tasted. An upside to a wet July?
By contrast, my raspberries have been rather disappointing this year. Last year I made about 10lb of jam, this year barely enough for one.
Sorry to hear that. I always think raspberries hardy little buggers which don't necessarily need a lot of sun to thrive, but perhaps I am wrong?
Raspberries are a woodland plant natively so shouldn't need vast amounts of sun. Must be another reason.
As for plums, always check the early ripening ones for plum moth. A right pain they are once established.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
Given that the lines are moving very little, a continuation seems to be fairly against Ukrainian interests to me.
A pause would merely give Russia time to rearm and try again, as we saw after 2014. Russia has broken every treaty and every ceasefire it has ever signed, so it can't be negotiated with in good faith.
Ukraine has to defeat Russia and make them think any future invasion really, really won't be worth it to avoid being under constant threat.
Whether they can achieve that is a different question, but I can quite understand why they keep fighting.
They are not defeating them, and I don't think the US is prepared to give them the weapons that they need (if such weapons exist) to drive Russia back to its pre-Crimea borders. As discussed, the US is benefitting from a slow, smouldering conflict that chews up Russia's forces and armaments. The trouble is, it's taking place in Ukraine and the country is going to become more and more of a shithole the longer it goes on.
Be far worse if they let Putin win. Their only option is to fight to the end.
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
Because you are continuously purveying doom porn.
Claims that Ukraine are running out of people just isn't backed by reality and is Putinist propaganda we should get from those registering on a Saturday for 15-40 posts in before the ban, not you.
I’ve been to Ukraine and I’ve seen all the men on crutches, missing limbs, etc. They are now sending men in their 50s to the front line. They are absolutely having difficulties with manpower
Because Russia is 3-4 times as big in population, and now Ukraine is trying to attack through the worst minefields in military history
Why shouldn't people in their 50s fight to liberate their nation? This is a total war fight for survival, not just a fight for 20-somethings.
Russia may be 3-4x as big in population but they aren't willing to or able to send all their manpower into Ukraine, in the same way as Ukraine is. And they don't have the supplies of munitions, and they don't know what they're fighting for.
Did the people you meet in Ukraine want to surrender, or support their troops?
If I may offer some unalloyed good news as a counterpoint to all this, my plum tree - planted in lockdown - has so far this August yielded 4lbs of plums, with at least as many to come, and they are possibly the most delicious fruit I have ever tasted. An upside to a wet July?
By contrast, my raspberries have been rather disappointing this year. Last year I made about 10lb of jam, this year barely enough for one.
Sorry to hear that. I always think raspberries hardy little buggers which don't necessarily need a lot of sun to thrive, but perhaps I am wrong?
Out walking this afternoon I met a man with a bucketful of blackberries. He said there was a good crop because of sun during the flowering stage and plenty of water during the growth of the fruit. Not being a botanist I could not comment but it seems sensible.
UK wine producers say as long as there’s more sunshine between now and October then they could have a record grape harvest because of the hot, dry sunny June and wetter July .
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
It seems pointless discussing this war if the only acceptable opinion is that Ukraine is winning and Russia must be 'beaten back'. I want Ukraine to succeed but also think that a realistic view should be taken. If Russia cannot be beaten back because it really has put in a billion lethal mines along the front then it is better to face up to this reality. There isn't going to be any 'peace deal' but some kind of freezing of the conflict where Ukraine can still defend itself may be possible. This should be considered as an option without being dismissed as 'Russian propoganda'. The decision can only really be informed by an objective assessment as to whether Ukraine can 'break through' the defensive lines - but it is clear that none of us really have sufficient information to make that assessment.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
I think so too. Nevertheless the Ukraine situation is a big problem for China, as long as it's unresolved and they are seen as a party to it. China's strategic intention is Russia ties down the West, and ideally splits it, so China can do it what it wants. It doesn't want Ukraine to energise and unify the West, to strengthen alliances against China because it's seen as part of the Russian axis.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
Given that the lines are moving very little, a continuation seems to be fairly against Ukrainian interests to me.
A pause would merely give Russia time to rearm and try again, as we saw after 2014. Russia has broken every treaty and every ceasefire it has ever signed, so it can't be negotiated with in good faith.
Ukraine has to defeat Russia and make them think any future invasion really, really won't be worth it to avoid being under constant threat.
Whether they can achieve that is a different question, but I can quite understand why they keep fighting.
They are not defeating them, and I don't think the US is prepared to give them the weapons that they need (if such weapons exist) to drive Russia back to its pre-Crimea borders. As discussed, the US is benefitting from a slow, smouldering conflict that chews up Russia's forces and armaments. The trouble is, it's taking place in Ukraine and the country is going to become more and more of a shithole the longer it goes on.
The bonus though is it is now taking place in occupied territories and they are liberating land.
Better to be liberating land which can be rebuilt, than to be losing ever more land to the villains.
The Ukrainians are advancing South thru Zaporizhizhia Oblast, away from Orikhiv. They have liberated about 15-30 km in three months
During the same period, the Russians are advancing west thru the Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts towards Lyman, and have taken about the same or slightly more.
It's WW1 again.
Do you have a source please on these alleged Russian advances?
For the advances
Https://liveuamap.com displays the lines graphically. The clock gif with the word "time" next to it enables you to look at specific days
For the area occupied
Https://nitter.net/war_mapper at the beginning of August displayed charts denoting net changes since Feb 2022. His graphs just underline the point that the net ground occupied is changing very, very slowly
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
It seems pointless discussing this war if the only acceptable opinion is that Ukraine is winning and Russia must be 'beaten back'. I want Ukraine to succeed but also think that a realistic view should be taken. If Russia cannot be beaten back because it really has put in a billion lethal mines along the front then it is better to face up to this reality. There isn't going to be any 'peace deal' but some kind of freezing of the conflict where Ukraine can still defend itself may be possible. This should be considered as an option without being dismissed as 'Russian propoganda'. The decision can only really be informed by an objective assessment as to whether Ukraine can 'break through' the defensive lines - but it is clear that none of us really have sufficient information to make that assessment.
I think this is really up to the Ukrainians. If they’re willing to fight a slow, attritional war to slowly eject the Russians from the south then we should give them to tools to let them make that choice. They’re the ones putting their lives on the line after all.
At any time, the Ukrainians could decide to fortify the existing lines & turn this into another frozen conflict like the post 2014 Donbass borders. That they have chosen not to do so suggests that they still believe there is a reasonable chance to push the Russians out.
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
It seems pointless discussing this war if the only acceptable opinion is that Ukraine is winning and Russia must be 'beaten back'. I want Ukraine to succeed but also think that a realistic view should be taken. If Russia cannot be beaten back because it really has put in a billion lethal mines along the front then it is better to face up to this reality. There isn't going to be any 'peace deal' but some kind of freezing of the conflict where Ukraine can still defend itself may be possible. This should be considered as an option without being dismissed as 'Russian propoganda'. The decision can only really be informed by an objective assessment as to whether Ukraine can 'break through' the defensive lines - but it is clear that none of us really have sufficient information to make that assessment.
I think this is really up to the Ukrainians. If they’re willing to fight a slow, attritional war to slowly eject the Russians from the south then we should give them to tools to let them make that choice. They’re the ones putting their lives on the line after all.
At any time, the Ukrainians could decide to fortify the existing lines & turn this into another frozen conflict like the post 2014 Donbass borders. That they have chosen not to do so suggests that they still believe there is a reasonable chance to push the Russians out.
Yes. Ukrainians have little incentive to stop fighting short of outright defeat or a situation where their security can be assured.
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
Because you are continuously purveying doom porn.
Claims that Ukraine are running out of people just isn't backed by reality and is Putinist propaganda we should get from those registering on a Saturday for 15-40 posts in before the ban, not you.
I’ve been to Ukraine and I’ve seen all the men on crutches, missing limbs, etc. They are now sending men in their 50s to the front line. They are absolutely having difficulties with manpower
Because Russia is 3-4 times as big in population, and now Ukraine is trying to attack through the worst minefields in military history
Why shouldn't people in their 50s fight to liberate their nation? This is a total war fight for survival, not just a fight for 20-somethings.
Russia may be 3-4x as big in population but they aren't willing to or able to send all their manpower into Ukraine, in the same way as Ukraine is. And they don't have the supplies of munitions, and they don't know what they're fighting for.
Did the people you meet in Ukraine want to surrender, or support their troops?
There are 2.5 million Ukranian men in their twenties, and 3.6 million in their thirties.
Now some will be unfit for the front line, some dodging the draft, others in essential civilian occupations etc but nonetheless a significant manpower pool. The limiting factors are more likely to be equipment, training and leadership at Officer and NCO level.
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
I think you misunderstand slightly. It's an empathy thing. This war is unusual in that one side is clearly and wholly in the wrong. We almost all desperately want them to lose. So your repeated postings of the obvious fact that this might not happen anytime soon if at all comes across as taunting. No, too strong, needling. Because that's its only effect. To needle. See what I'm driving at?
OT - Despite media games . most people are accepting that the office of PM does need to involve access to transport the common man cannot gain . Do we really expect the PM of the UK to catch a bus to a meeting?
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
I think you misunderstand slightly. It's an empathy thing. This war is unusual in that one side is clearly and wholly in the wrong. We almost all desperately want them to lose. So your repeated postings of the obvious fact that this might not happen anytime soon if at all comes across as taunting. No, too strong, needling. Because that's its only effect. To needle. See what I'm driving at?
No I don’t
I think there are too many people on this site living in an echo chamber of yay Ukraine, win win win
And having now actually been to Ukraine this month, and talked to Ukrainians in Ukraine, I think I can speak with a smidgen more authority than more. Just a smidgen mind. Nothing dramatic. I’m not suddenly claiming to be Basil Liddell Hart of Bakhmut
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
Because you are continuously purveying doom porn.
Claims that Ukraine are running out of people just isn't backed by reality and is Putinist propaganda we should get from those registering on a Saturday for 15-40 posts in before the ban, not you.
I’ve been to Ukraine and I’ve seen all the men on crutches, missing limbs, etc. They are now sending men in their 50s to the front line. They are absolutely having difficulties with manpower
Because Russia is 3-4 times as big in population, and now Ukraine is trying to attack through the worst minefields in military history
Russia supposedly is losing 5 or 6 times more men than Ukraine, but that still implies Ukraine is seeing 100 soldiers a day being killed, plus many more injured, as you point out.
It's horrible.
I still expect Ukraine to keep fighting on, but maybe not at the same intensity.
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
It seems pointless discussing this war if the only acceptable opinion is that Ukraine is winning and Russia must be 'beaten back'. I want Ukraine to succeed but also think that a realistic view should be taken. If Russia cannot be beaten back because it really has put in a billion lethal mines along the front then it is better to face up to this reality. There isn't going to be any 'peace deal' but some kind of freezing of the conflict where Ukraine can still defend itself may be possible. This should be considered as an option without being dismissed as 'Russian propoganda'. The decision can only really be informed by an objective assessment as to whether Ukraine can 'break through' the defensive lines - but it is clear that none of us really have sufficient information to make that assessment.
I think this is really up to the Ukrainians. If they’re willing to fight a slow, attritional war to slowly eject the Russians from the south then we should give them to tools to let them make that choice. They’re the ones putting their lives on the line after all.
At any time, the Ukrainians could decide to fortify the existing lines & turn this into another frozen conflict like the post 2014 Donbass borders. That they have chosen not to do so suggests that they still believe there is a reasonable chance to push the Russians out.
I think Russia must be beaten, now we’ve seen what it is. Whether that can be in 2023 (increasingly unlikely), or 2024, or after 20 years of economic strangulation and partisan warfare is a tactical question. But it has been and continues to be a malign force in the world. Until it’s disarmed nobody in the former Soviet empire can feel secure.
The Taliban finally kicked us out of Afghanistan after 20 years, and they faced far more fearsome odds than Ukraine does. The North Vietnamese kept it up for almost the same time. We’re only a year and a half into this war and Westerners already seem to be getting bored.
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
I think you misunderstand slightly. It's an empathy thing. This war is unusual in that one side is clearly and wholly in the wrong. We almost all desperately want them to lose. So your repeated postings of the obvious fact that this might not happen anytime soon if at all comes across as taunting. No, too strong, needling. Because that's its only effect. To needle. See what I'm driving at?
It's not just that but that the talking points he's using are Putinist bullshit.
Like Ukraine is running out of people (they're not, they've drafted millions).
Or that China "will not let" Putin lose. It's not in China's gift to let him lose or not.
And when challenged on these points he retreats to defending a different point, like that it's bloody, which nobody disputes. Rather than the extreme and false claim.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
Given that the lines are moving very little, a continuation seems to be fairly against Ukrainian interests to me.
That's because you don't care about Ukraine's interests Putinguy.
Any movement of the lines liberates Ukrainian land. Something your ilk claimed was impossible.
Slow but steady wins the race.
I do love a bit of Right on Right action
Disagreeing with Putinguy is more Right on Wrong action.
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
I think you misunderstand slightly. It's an empathy thing. This war is unusual in that one side is clearly and wholly in the wrong. We almost all desperately want them to lose. So your repeated postings of the obvious fact that this might not happen anytime soon if at all comes across as taunting. No, too strong, needling. Because that's its only effect. To needle. See what I'm driving at?
It's not just that but that the talking points he's using are Putinist bullshit.
Like Ukraine is running out of people (they're not, they've drafted millions).
Or that China "will not let" Putin lose. It's not in China's gift to let him lose or not.
And when challenged on these points he retreats to defending a different point, like that it's bloody, which nobody disputes. Rather than the extreme and false claim.
As I said the other day: one of Putin's best hopes is that the west thinks Ukraine's situation is hopeless, and withdraws its support. There are significant figures in the west who, for whatever reason, are actively calling for support to be withdrawn. This is music to Putin's ears: any remote chance of him deciding to withdraw is reduced further when he hears such calls from the west (and you can believe he gets to hear those calls rather than those supporting Ukraine.)
We need to make it clear: we will support Ukraine for as long as Ukraine wants to fight, or until the battle is won. And we need to be unified on that.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
Given that the lines are moving very little, a continuation seems to be fairly against Ukrainian interests to me.
That's because you don't care about Ukraine's interests Putinguy.
Any movement of the lines liberates Ukrainian land. Something your ilk claimed was impossible.
Slow but steady wins the race.
I do love a bit of Right on Right action
The odd thing on Twitter is how the most vocal and ranty pro-Russian posters are in almost equal parts self-described “f* Biden, restoring family values and battling woke” and people with names like hammers and sickles in their profiles who bang on about eliminating the Kulaks.
Is it really that odd? The Mainstream American Right are pro Putin partly because they don't care about people outside the US, so are uninterested about the plight of Ukrainians, and think any aid given to them is a waste of hard earned American Dollars. There's also admiration of his supposedly Anti-Woke Strongman image.
Of course there are a few GOP members (like Romney, Liz Cheney, Bill Kristol) who actually have a few brain cells and can see how terrible Trump and his supporters are, but when you've generated such a hatred of the "Libtards", preaching reason to them is pretty much useless.
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
It seems pointless discussing this war if the only acceptable opinion is that Ukraine is winning and Russia must be 'beaten back'. I want Ukraine to succeed but also think that a realistic view should be taken. If Russia cannot be beaten back because it really has put in a billion lethal mines along the front then it is better to face up to this reality. There isn't going to be any 'peace deal' but some kind of freezing of the conflict where Ukraine can still defend itself may be possible. This should be considered as an option without being dismissed as 'Russian propoganda'. The decision can only really be informed by an objective assessment as to whether Ukraine can 'break through' the defensive lines - but it is clear that none of us really have sufficient information to make that assessment.
I think this is really up to the Ukrainians. If they’re willing to fight a slow, attritional war to slowly eject the Russians from the south then we should give them to tools to let them make that choice. They’re the ones putting their lives on the line after all.
At any time, the Ukrainians could decide to fortify the existing lines & turn this into another frozen conflict like the post 2014 Donbass borders. That they have chosen not to do so suggests that they still believe there is a reasonable chance to push the Russians out.
I think Russia must be beaten, now we’ve seen what it is. Whether that can be in 2023 (increasingly unlikely), or 2024, or after 20 years of economic strangulation and partisan warfare is a tactical question. But it has been and continues to be a malign force in the world. Until it’s disarmed nobody in the former Soviet empire can feel secure.
The Taliban finally kicked us out of Afghanistan after 20 years, and they faced far more fearsome odds than Ukraine does. The North Vietnamese kept it up for almost the same time. We’re only a year and a half into this war and Westerners already seem to be getting bored.
I think Ukraine has a, regrettably diminishing, but still real, possibility of breaking through Russian defences. If not, I think it probably can impose a cost on Russia for its occupation that eventually even Russia won't be willing to pay. The question is, what state Ukraine will be in when that point happens?
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
Given that the lines are moving very little, a continuation seems to be fairly against Ukrainian interests to me.
A pause would merely give Russia time to rearm and try again, as we saw after 2014. Russia has broken every treaty and every ceasefire it has ever signed, so it can't be negotiated with in good faith.
Ukraine has to defeat Russia and make them think any future invasion really, really won't be worth it to avoid being under constant threat.
Whether they can achieve that is a different question, but I can quite understand why they keep fighting.
They are not defeating them, and I don't think the US is prepared to give them the weapons that they need (if such weapons exist) to drive Russia back to its pre-Crimea borders. As discussed, the US is benefitting from a slow, smouldering conflict that chews up Russia's forces and armaments. The trouble is, it's taking place in Ukraine and the country is going to become more and more of a shithole the longer it goes on.
The bonus though is it is now taking place in occupied territories and they are liberating land.
Better to be liberating land which can be rebuilt, than to be losing ever more land to the villains.
The Ukrainians are advancing South thru Zaporizhizhia Oblast, away from Orikhiv. They have liberated about 15-30 km in three months
During the same period, the Russians are advancing west thru the Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts towards Lyman, and have taken about the same or slightly more.
It's WW1 again.
Except for the moral dimension which is very different. There's a stark 'good v evil' aspect here. Ukraine was minding its own business, getting on with life as a country with many flaws and problems, then here comes Vladimir Putin and turns it into a hellhole for no reason other than gangster machismo and ethno-nationalistic delusions of grandeur. This creates an imperative for him to lose (or at least not win).
If I may offer some unalloyed good news as a counterpoint to all this, my plum tree - planted in lockdown - has so far this August yielded 4lbs of plums, with at least as many to come, and they are possibly the most delicious fruit I have ever tasted. An upside to a wet July?
Yes, my plums are very good this year, and look as if the sun will ripen them nicely as it dries off.
Apples and pears looking good, but blackcurrants very poor. Worst year I have had from them. Bit early for blackberry assessment.
Blackcurrants OK, plums no good this year. Gooseberries were decent. (Cumbria).
BTW the answer to discussing milk prices is to use oat milk, which tastes like milk ought to taste and has some environmental credentials (though no doubt Monbiot will find a way in which oats are destroying the solar system), and we could talk about oat milk prices instead.
And, footnote, Victoria plums, fresh, raw, off the tree, are the finest fruit on the planet in a contest where the competition is pretty severe.
If I may offer some unalloyed good news as a counterpoint to all this, my plum tree - planted in lockdown - has so far this August yielded 4lbs of plums, with at least as many to come, and they are possibly the most delicious fruit I have ever tasted. An upside to a wet July?
By contrast, my raspberries have been rather disappointing this year. Last year I made about 10lb of jam, this year barely enough for one.
Sorry to hear that. I always think raspberries hardy little buggers which don't necessarily need a lot of sun to thrive, but perhaps I am wrong?
Our autumn variety are just coming in. I always prefer them to the summer ones as they are easier to manage.
‘Rishi Sunak travelled to Southampton using a taxpayer-funded helicopter, Downing Street has admitted, despite the journey taking just over an hour on the train.’
Ahem. that assumes no waiting time. The shortest train time (direct from Waterloo to Soton Cent) is 1hr 25, but you will not arrive immediately the train departs. Assume 15-30 mins waiting time for train to be platformed and for you to get on. Then at Soton Cent you'd have to get a taxi to wherever you are going.
So door-to-door I'd assume at least 2hrs, assume 2.5 on the safe side.
Incidentally Waterloo has a bookstore (Foyles) altho it is being refurbished. There are not many places in Waterloo for a nice sit down and a read, as everything is overpriced and not set up for the single reader. It does have a (grrr) coffee shop full of overpriced drinks I don't really understand, but it did (and I think it's reopened) have a nice sushi place which has nice sushi and seats upstairs where it isn't too loud.
All coffee chains do "Black Coffee", if you simply ask for that.
I don't like black coffee. I want coffee with milk. There is a translation from posh coffee to normal human coffee but I've forgotten what it is. If you know how to get normal coffee with normal milk, in the correct proportions, without the coffee looking like somebody spat in it, I would be grateful.
Don't (was passes for) coffee shops in UK, have a jug of cream out for customers to put it into their own coffee?
Standard in USA. Though of course ANY solution though up by Americans, MUST be unsuitable for Britons!
ADDENDUM - every morning at my local coffee shop, I order a 16-ounce "drip coffee" which is available either dark or light; I ask them for the later but with a little of the former on top.
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
“Not fast enough”
For who? You? Sorry but don’t care what you want. It will take also long as it takes until it is done.
It will also be slow until it is fast.
“The minefield is killing them a piece at a time”
Which is why all civilised countries discourage their use. They also don’t distinguish between civilians and combatants. However the analysis indicates that, slow and painful as it may be, Ukraine is on the right side of the assymetric attrition equation.
“They should redirect their forces in the North East”
We have, it seems, another Deltapoll in the public arena.
No tables it seems and we don't know if this is a poll specially commissioned by the Mail or whether this is the normal weekly Deltapoll outing. The questions reflected in the Mail's coverage suggest this is a specially commissioned poll and it's interesting to see a 17 point deficit with Sunak becomes a 13 point deficit where Johnson still Prime Minister - how it would be with Truss still PM isn't asked.
It's a better poll for the Conservatives but I'm cynical and sceptical - my inner cynic thinks a pro-Conservative paper showing a poll with a 3-point improvement for the Conservatives falls into the "too good to be true" category.
However, one cannot question the integrity and methodology of a pollster simply because the result isn't what one would like or want so we'll wait to see if this is an outlier or a sign of an improved trend of the Conservatives who seem to have "bottomed" at 25%.
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
I think you misunderstand slightly. It's an empathy thing. This war is unusual in that one side is clearly and wholly in the wrong. We almost all desperately want them to lose. So your repeated postings of the obvious fact that this might not happen anytime soon if at all comes across as taunting. No, too strong, needling. Because that's its only effect. To needle. See what I'm driving at?
It's not just that but that the talking points he's using are Putinist bullshit.
Like Ukraine is running out of people (they're not, they've drafted millions).
Or that China "will not let" Putin lose. It's not in China's gift to let him lose or not.
And when challenged on these points he retreats to defending a different point, like that it's bloody, which nobody disputes. Rather than the extreme and false claim.
Mmm true - but you're just a bit too posturey the other way imo. I've said so before, haven't I? And you lost your rag over it.
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
Leaving aside the geography of the Ukrainian/Belarus border is not the best for military manoeuvres - which was to Ukraine's advantage in the attack on Kyiv - Zelensky would be mad to take any action that might bring Belarus into the war, particularly since it would infuriate the Americans.
I suspect in any case you're misjudging his strategic aim. It seems to be to isolate Crimea and force the Russians out of it in the belief they will then lose interest in Eastern Ukraine.
Whether he's right or not I don't know, but it's at least logical. Russia does seem unreasonably obsessed with the Crimea.
They want a warm water port and don’t want Ukraine to have the offshore oil and gas reserves to develop
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
I think so too. Nevertheless the Ukraine situation is a big problem for China, as long as it's unresolved and they are seen as a party to it. China's strategic intention is Russia ties down the West, and ideally splits it, so China can do it what it wants. It doesn't want Ukraine to energise and unify the West, to strengthen alliances against China because it's seen as part of the Russian axis.
China certainly doesn't want Ukraine to liberate itself of Russian invaders either with Western support, as that does not bode well for its goal of invading and conquering Taiwan
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
I think you misunderstand slightly. It's an empathy thing. This war is unusual in that one side is clearly and wholly in the wrong. We almost all desperately want them to lose. So your repeated postings of the obvious fact that this might not happen anytime soon if at all comes across as taunting. No, too strong, needling. Because that's its only effect. To needle. See what I'm driving at?
No I don’t
I think there are too many people on this site living in an echo chamber of yay Ukraine, win win win
And having now actually been to Ukraine this month, and talked to Ukrainians in Ukraine, I think I can speak with a smidgen more authority than more. Just a smidgen mind. Nothing dramatic. I’m not suddenly claiming to be Basil Liddell Hart of Bakhmut
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
Ukraine was saying six months ago that they’d only received about 15% of the combat demining equipment they needed (stuff like the M58).
‘Rishi Sunak travelled to Southampton using a taxpayer-funded helicopter, Downing Street has admitted, despite the journey taking just over an hour on the train.’
Ahem. that assumes no waiting time. The shortest train time (direct from Waterloo to Soton Cent) is 1hr 25, but you will not arrive immediately the train departs. Assume 15-30 mins waiting time for train to be platformed and for you to get on. Then at Soton Cent you'd have to get a taxi to wherever you are going.
So door-to-door I'd assume at least 2hrs, assume 2.5 on the safe side.
Incidentally Waterloo has a bookstore (Foyles) altho it is being refurbished. There are not many places in Waterloo for a nice sit down and a read, as everything is overpriced and not set up for the single reader. It does have a (grrr) coffee shop full of overpriced drinks I don't really understand, but it did (and I think it's reopened) have a nice sushi place which has nice sushi and seats upstairs where it isn't too loud.
All coffee chains do "Black Coffee", if you simply ask for that.
I don't like black coffee. I want coffee with milk. There is a translation from posh coffee to normal human coffee but I've forgotten what it is. If you know how to get normal coffee with normal milk, in the correct proportions, without the coffee looking like somebody spat in it, I would be grateful.
Don't (was passes for) coffee shops in UK, have a jug of cream out for customers to put it into their own coffee?
Standard in USA. Though of course ANY solution though up by Americans, MUST be unsuitable for Britons!
ADDENDUM - every morning at my local coffee shop, I order a 16-ounce "drip coffee" which is available either dark or light; I ask them for the later but with a little of the former on top.
Then I add my own cream.
Brit coffee shops don't have jugs of cream, I'm afraid.
The truth is we've got "used" to it - the killing and the dying continues in the background for us and even (it seems) for some of western Ukraine. The early uncertainties and fears of escalation into something of potentially global import have for now receded.
The conflict is contained - it's more akin to the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s which began with huge threats to global oil supplies but de-escalated into a conflict of attrition.
I've reached the conclusion for many beyond the Ukraine and Russia, the status quo of the current conflict works and will be maintained. We'll do enough to ensure Ukraine doesn't lose - presumably we will also do enough to ensure Russia doesn't lose as well.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
Given that the lines are moving very little, a continuation seems to be fairly against Ukrainian interests to me.
A pause would merely give Russia time to rearm and try again, as we saw after 2014. Russia has broken every treaty and every ceasefire it has ever signed, so it can't be negotiated with in good faith.
Ukraine has to defeat Russia and make them think any future invasion really, really won't be worth it to avoid being under constant threat.
Whether they can achieve that is a different question, but I can quite understand why they keep fighting.
They are not defeating them, and I don't think the US is prepared to give them the weapons that they need (if such weapons exist) to drive Russia back to its pre-Crimea borders. As discussed, the US is benefitting from a slow, smouldering conflict that chews up Russia's forces and armaments. The trouble is, it's taking place in Ukraine and the country is going to become more and more of a shithole the longer it goes on.
The bonus though is it is now taking place in occupied territories and they are liberating land.
Better to be liberating land which can be rebuilt, than to be losing ever more land to the villains.
The Ukrainians are advancing South thru Zaporizhizhia Oblast, away from Orikhiv. They have liberated about 15-30 km in three months
During the same period, the Russians are advancing west thru the Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts towards Lyman, and have taken about the same or slightly more.
It's WW1 again.
Do you have a source please on these alleged Russian advances?
For the advances
Https://liveuamap.com displays the lines graphically. The clock gif with the word "time" next to it enables you to look at specific days
For the area occupied
Https://nitter.net/war_mapper at the beginning of August displayed charts denoting net changes since Feb 2022. His graphs just underline the point that the net ground occupied is changing very, very slowly
Lyman is only of significance because it is a rail hub. But fundamentally Russia are trying to regain last year’s losses.
Ukraine is steadily and deliberately isolating Crimea. That has much more strategic significance
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
Leaving aside the geography of the Ukrainian/Belarus border is not the best for military manoeuvres - which was to Ukraine's advantage in the attack on Kyiv - Zelensky would be mad to take any action that might bring Belarus into the war, particularly since it would infuriate the Americans.
I suspect in any case you're misjudging his strategic aim. It seems to be to isolate Crimea and force the Russians out of it in the belief they will then lose interest in Eastern Ukraine.
Whether he's right or not I don't know, but it's at least logical. Russia does seem unreasonably obsessed with the Crimea.
They want a warm water port and don’t want Ukraine to have the offshore oil and gas reserves to develop
That may be part of it, but they always have been. They separated Crimea from Ukraine in 1922, for instance, and integrated it into the Russian SSR (to the somewhat severe detriment of Crimea).
It does of course effectively give them control of the Kerch strait and indeed the approaches to Odessa, thereby rendering Ukraine vulnerable. But it seems very emotional as well. Perhaps a memory of the war they lost there, and the Tsarist dachas, plus Stalin's high point of hosting the Yalta conference.
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
“Not fast enough”
For who? You? Sorry but don’t care what you want. It will take also long as it takes until it is done.
It will also be slow until it is fast.
“The minefield is killing them a piece at a time”
Which is why all civilised countries discourage their use. They also don’t distinguish between civilians and combatants. However the analysis indicates that, slow and painful as it may be, Ukraine is on the right side of the assymetric attrition equation.
“They should redirect their forces in the North East”
Which has much less strategic significance
“Going via Belarus”
Invading a third country would not be a good idea
"Invading a third country would not be a good idea"
Whereas demining Zaporizhizhia with people is?
Asymmetric attrition is very expensive in terms of people, and is based on a faulty assumption - namely, it doesn't matter if you are killing them faster than they are killing you. The important point is land. If you can gain land faster in the North East than in the mid south, then go there.
Why do you think the Brits fought in the Western Desert in WWIi? Because they could fight there and win.
*) Putin sees this as a war against the wider west. *) A victory for Russia is one that undermines the existing world order and gives Russia an upper hand against the west. *) Regime security is an issue, and also an objective. *) Putin probably does not differentiate between Russia and himself. *) This is a struggle for Russia's status as a great power, reversing the events of 1991 when the USSR collapsed.
And many more goodies.
This is why the 'west' needs to keep supporting Ukraine; Ukraine is just a means to an end for him.
Putin also is retreating to a kind of comfort zone. Russia against NATO takes him back to the days when he was a KGB man - a member of the elite, in a Mighty! State! with the Awesome! Might! of the Warsaw Pact and the world shock as it waved its Mighty! Weapons!
Sam Freedman @Samfr · 4h Think the way grid weeks are becoming publicly discussed things - "small boats week", "NHS week" - might be the thing that finally kills off this 25 year old approach to govt comms that hasn't worked in years.
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
Leaving aside the geography of the Ukrainian/Belarus border is not the best for military manoeuvres - which was to Ukraine's advantage in the attack on Kyiv - Zelensky would be mad to take any action that might bring Belarus into the war, particularly since it would infuriate the Americans.
I suspect in any case you're misjudging his strategic aim. It seems to be to isolate Crimea and force the Russians out of it in the belief they will then lose interest in Eastern Ukraine.
Whether he's right or not I don't know, but it's at least logical. Russia does seem unreasonably obsessed with the Crimea.
They want a warm water port and don’t want Ukraine to have the offshore oil and gas reserves to develop
That may be part of it, but they always have been. They separated Crimea from Ukraine in 1922, for instance, and integrated it into the Russian SSR (to the somewhat severe detriment of Crimea).
It does of course effectively give them control of the Kerch strait and indeed the approaches to Odessa, thereby rendering Ukraine vulnerable. But it seems very emotional as well. Perhaps a memory of the war they lost there, and the Tsarist dachas, plus Stalin's high point of hosting the Yalta conference.
It was one of Catherine’s greatest triumphs.
See why Serbia cares so much about Pristina, for example.
‘Rishi Sunak travelled to Southampton using a taxpayer-funded helicopter, Downing Street has admitted, despite the journey taking just over an hour on the train.’
Ahem. that assumes no waiting time. The shortest train time (direct from Waterloo to Soton Cent) is 1hr 25, but you will not arrive immediately the train departs. Assume 15-30 mins waiting time for train to be platformed and for you to get on. Then at Soton Cent you'd have to get a taxi to wherever you are going.
So door-to-door I'd assume at least 2hrs, assume 2.5 on the safe side.
Incidentally Waterloo has a bookstore (Foyles) altho it is being refurbished. There are not many places in Waterloo for a nice sit down and a read, as everything is overpriced and not set up for the single reader. It does have a (grrr) coffee shop full of overpriced drinks I don't really understand, but it did (and I think it's reopened) have a nice sushi place which has nice sushi and seats upstairs where it isn't too loud.
All coffee chains do "Black Coffee", if you simply ask for that.
I don't like black coffee. I want coffee with milk. There is a translation from posh coffee to normal human coffee but I've forgotten what it is. If you know how to get normal coffee with normal milk, in the correct proportions, without the coffee looking like somebody spat in it, I would be grateful.
Don't (was passes for) coffee shops in UK, have a jug of cream out for customers to put it into their own coffee?
Standard in USA. Though of course ANY solution though up by Americans, MUST be unsuitable for Britons!
ADDENDUM - every morning at my local coffee shop, I order a 16-ounce "drip coffee" which is available either dark or light; I ask them for the later but with a little of the former on top.
Then I add my own cream.
No.
You might get that in a café though.
"Drip" coffee is what we were referring to as filter coffee. Most dedicated coffee shops have moved on from that and invested in better infrastructure, but many cafes still use that.
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
I think you misunderstand slightly. It's an empathy thing. This war is unusual in that one side is clearly and wholly in the wrong. We almost all desperately want them to lose. So your repeated postings of the obvious fact that this might not happen anytime soon if at all comes across as taunting. No, too strong, needling. Because that's its only effect. To needle. See what I'm driving at?
Did you notice the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia at all?
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
Leaving aside the geography of the Ukrainian/Belarus border is not the best for military manoeuvres - which was to Ukraine's advantage in the attack on Kyiv - Zelensky would be mad to take any action that might bring Belarus into the war, particularly since it would infuriate the Americans.
I suspect in any case you're misjudging his strategic aim. It seems to be to isolate Crimea and force the Russians out of it in the belief they will then lose interest in Eastern Ukraine.
Whether he's right or not I don't know, but it's at least logical. Russia does seem unreasonably obsessed with the Crimea.
Maybe the lack of desire for the US Navy to enter Sevastopol has something to do with it?
FFS...all these so-wise pronunciations. Some things should be obvious.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
I think so too. Nevertheless the Ukraine situation is a big problem for China, as long as it's unresolved and they are seen as a party to it. China's strategic intention is Russia ties down the West, and ideally splits it, so China can do it what it wants. It doesn't want Ukraine to energise and unify the West, to strengthen alliances against China because it's seen as part of the Russian axis.
China certainly doesn't want Ukraine to liberate itself of Russian invaders either with Western support, as that does not bode well for its goal of invading and conquering Taiwan
China really wants Ukraine to go away as an issue but not to end in Russia's defeat. Squaring that circle is a challenge.
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
I think you misunderstand slightly. It's an empathy thing. This war is unusual in that one side is clearly and wholly in the wrong. We almost all desperately want them to lose. So your repeated postings of the obvious fact that this might not happen anytime soon if at all comes across as taunting. No, too strong, needling. Because that's its only effect. To needle. See what I'm driving at?
Did you notice the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia at all?
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
Leaving aside the geography of the Ukrainian/Belarus border is not the best for military manoeuvres - which was to Ukraine's advantage in the attack on Kyiv - Zelensky would be mad to take any action that might bring Belarus into the war, particularly since it would infuriate the Americans.
I suspect in any case you're misjudging his strategic aim. It seems to be to isolate Crimea and force the Russians out of it in the belief they will then lose interest in Eastern Ukraine.
Whether he's right or not I don't know, but it's at least logical. Russia does seem unreasonably obsessed with the Crimea.
Maybe the lack of desire for the US Navy to enter Sevastopol has something to do with it?
FFS...all these so-wise pronunciations. Some things should be obvious.
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
“Not fast enough”
For who? You? Sorry but don’t care what you want. It will take also long as it takes until it is done.
It will also be slow until it is fast.
“The minefield is killing them a piece at a time”
Which is why all civilised countries discourage their use. They also don’t distinguish between civilians and combatants. However the analysis indicates that, slow and painful as it may be, Ukraine is on the right side of the assymetric attrition equation.
“They should redirect their forces in the North East”
Which has much less strategic significance
“Going via Belarus”
Invading a third country would not be a good idea
"Invading a third country would not be a good idea"
Whereas demining Zaporizhizhia with people is?
Asymmetric attrition is very expensive in terms of people, and is based on a faulty assumption - namely, it doesn't matter if you are killing them faster than they are killing you. The important point is land. If you can gain land faster in the North East than in the mid south, then go there.
Why do you think the Brits fought in the Western Desert in WWIi? Because they could fight there and win.
Invading Belarus would completely undermine Ukraine’s moral position and destroy their support in the West. See also firing missiles into Russian territory (I have more sympathy with the latter but lost that argument)
You misunderstand asymmetric attrition. It isn’t about the speed of killing. It’s about shifting the military balance.
Land doesn’t matter at all. It should be strategic (military, political or emotional). Capturing empty fields not so much.
The Western Desert was about the supply route to India and preventing the Germany accessing Middle Eastern oil. It was strategically vital.
The liberation of Kherson was now 9 months' ago now.
It's fair to say the second half of the war has been more of a stalemate then the first.
Hopefully there will be a significant breakthrough before long.
Ukraine held off a counteroffensive
They waited through the mud season
They are gradually attriting Russian positions and strangling Crimea.
Not everything works to a 24 hour new cycle
Attrition is massively important IMO. We see lots of videos and pictures of Ukraine blatting Russia far behind Russian lines - from ammunition dumps to communication lines. We see lots of videos of Russia hitting behind Ukrainian lines, but they *appear* to be much more targeted on civilian infrastructure.
Appearances can be deceptive, of course: it would be that Russia is regularly hitting vital Ukrainian units, and have really destroyed 5,194 Himars unit as they claim, and the Ukrainians are keeping the behind-the-lines losses very secret.
But IMO this is what will break one side or the other: attrition, particularly over logistics. Such a break could be very sudden. And I doubt Russia will be advantaged by keeping on hitting the targets they *appear* to be currently hitting - just as the war on Ukraine's power infrastructure did not work over the winter.
The liberation of Kherson was now 9 months' ago now.
It's fair to say the second half of the war has been more of a stalemate then the first.
Hopefully there will be a significant breakthrough before long.
Ukraine held off a counteroffensive
They waited through the mud season
They are gradually attriting Russian positions and strangling Crimea.
Not everything works to a 24 hour new cycle
Attrition is massively important IMO. We see lots of videos and pictures of Ukraine blatting Russia far behind Russian lines - from ammunition dumps to communication lines. We see lots of videos of Russia hitting behind Ukrainian lines, but they *appear* to be much more targeted on civilian infrastructure.
Appearances can be deceptive, of course: it would be that Russia is regularly hitting vital Ukrainian units, and have really destroyed 5,194 Himars unit as they claim, and the Ukrainians are keeping the behind-the-lines losses very secret.
But IMO this is what will break one side or the other: attrition, particularly over logistics. Such a break could be very sudden. And I doubt Russia will be advantaged by keeping on hitting the targets they *appear* to be currently hitting - just as the war on Ukraine's power infrastructure did not work over the winter.
That’s what I meant when I said it would be slow until it is fast
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
I think you misunderstand slightly. It's an empathy thing. This war is unusual in that one side is clearly and wholly in the wrong. We almost all desperately want them to lose. So your repeated postings of the obvious fact that this might not happen anytime soon if at all comes across as taunting. No, too strong, needling. Because that's its only effect. To needle. See what I'm driving at?
Did you notice the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia at all?
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
Leaving aside the geography of the Ukrainian/Belarus border is not the best for military manoeuvres - which was to Ukraine's advantage in the attack on Kyiv - Zelensky would be mad to take any action that might bring Belarus into the war, particularly since it would infuriate the Americans.
I suspect in any case you're misjudging his strategic aim. It seems to be to isolate Crimea and force the Russians out of it in the belief they will then lose interest in Eastern Ukraine.
Whether he's right or not I don't know, but it's at least logical. Russia does seem unreasonably obsessed with the Crimea.
Maybe the lack of desire for the US Navy to enter Sevastopol has something to do with it?
FFS...all these so-wise pronunciations. Some things should be obvious.
Привет товарищ
Have you ever been involved in a conflict, little fake-oh, super-boring, couldn't quite manage to make his mark in online psywar boy? I mean a conflict where you actually contributed, rather than being the village idiot on one of the sides, or a mere gunslinger. How did you understand it without trying to understand your enemy's POV? If you think Sevastopol isn't strategically important, frankly you should just shut up. I've just told you what the most important plank of its strategic significance is. Check with any grownup.
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
“Not fast enough”
For who? You? Sorry but don’t care what you want. It will take also long as it takes until it is done.
It will also be slow until it is fast.
“The minefield is killing them a piece at a time”
Which is why all civilised countries discourage their use. They also don’t distinguish between civilians and combatants. However the analysis indicates that, slow and painful as it may be, Ukraine is on the right side of the assymetric attrition equation.
“They should redirect their forces in the North East”
Which has much less strategic significance
“Going via Belarus”
Invading a third country would not be a good idea
"Invading a third country would not be a good idea"
Whereas demining Zaporizhizhia with people is?
Asymmetric attrition is very expensive in terms of people, and is based on a faulty assumption - namely, it doesn't matter if you are killing them faster than they are killing you. The important point is land. If you can gain land faster in the North East than in the mid south, then go there.
Why do you think the Brits fought in the Western Desert in WWIi? Because they could fight there and win.
Yes, but fighting in Zapo and Kherson stretches and strains Russian logistics in a way that fighting in Luhansk doesn't, and threatens Crimea.
Without a viable Crimea, occupying Zapo and Kherson is pretty pointless for Russia. It is a a deliberate strategy to bleed Russia here.
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
“Not fast enough”
For who? You? Sorry but don’t care what you want. It will take also long as it takes until it is done.
It will also be slow until it is fast.
“The minefield is killing them a piece at a time”
Which is why all civilised countries discourage their use. They also don’t distinguish between civilians and combatants. However the analysis indicates that, slow and painful as it may be, Ukraine is on the right side of the assymetric attrition equation.
“They should redirect their forces in the North East”
Which has much less strategic significance
“Going via Belarus”
Invading a third country would not be a good idea
"Invading a third country would not be a good idea"
Whereas demining Zaporizhizhia with people is?
Asymmetric attrition is very expensive in terms of people, and is based on a faulty assumption - namely, it doesn't matter if you are killing them faster than they are killing you. The important point is land. If you can gain land faster in the North East than in the mid south, then go there.
Why do you think the Brits fought in the Western Desert in WWIi? Because they could fight there and win.
I think Brits fought in the Western Desert to stop the Germans getting their hands on oil and the Suez Canal but I may be mistaken.
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
I think you misunderstand slightly. It's an empathy thing. This war is unusual in that one side is clearly and wholly in the wrong. We almost all desperately want them to lose. So your repeated postings of the obvious fact that this might not happen anytime soon if at all comes across as taunting. No, too strong, needling. Because that's its only effect. To needle. See what I'm driving at?
Did you notice the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia at all?
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
Leaving aside the geography of the Ukrainian/Belarus border is not the best for military manoeuvres - which was to Ukraine's advantage in the attack on Kyiv - Zelensky would be mad to take any action that might bring Belarus into the war, particularly since it would infuriate the Americans.
I suspect in any case you're misjudging his strategic aim. It seems to be to isolate Crimea and force the Russians out of it in the belief they will then lose interest in Eastern Ukraine.
Whether he's right or not I don't know, but it's at least logical. Russia does seem unreasonably obsessed with the Crimea.
Maybe the lack of desire for the US Navy to enter Sevastopol has something to do with it?
FFS...all these so-wise pronunciations. Some things should be obvious.
Привет товарищ
Have you ever been involved in a conflict, little fake-oh, super-boring, couldn't quite manage to make his mark in online psywar boy? I mean a conflict where you actually contributed, rather than being the village idiot on one of the sides, or a mere gunslinger. How did you understand it without trying to understand your enemy's POV? If you think Sevastopol isn't strategically important, frankly you should just shut up.
I’d argue it’s more strategically important to the Russians (Tarsus just doesn’t cut it) than to the Americans. But sometimes it’s a win to deny something to an enemy
And make no mistake. China is a rival. Russia is an enemy.
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
I think you misunderstand slightly. It's an empathy thing. This war is unusual in that one side is clearly and wholly in the wrong. We almost all desperately want them to lose. So your repeated postings of the obvious fact that this might not happen anytime soon if at all comes across as taunting. No, too strong, needling. Because that's its only effect. To needle. See what I'm driving at?
Did you notice the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia at all?
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
Leaving aside the geography of the Ukrainian/Belarus border is not the best for military manoeuvres - which was to Ukraine's advantage in the attack on Kyiv - Zelensky would be mad to take any action that might bring Belarus into the war, particularly since it would infuriate the Americans.
I suspect in any case you're misjudging his strategic aim. It seems to be to isolate Crimea and force the Russians out of it in the belief they will then lose interest in Eastern Ukraine.
Whether he's right or not I don't know, but it's at least logical. Russia does seem unreasonably obsessed with the Crimea.
Maybe the lack of desire for the US Navy to enter Sevastopol has something to do with it?
FFS...all these so-wise pronunciations. Some things should be obvious.
Привет товарищ
Have you ever been involved in a conflict, little fake-oh, super-boring, couldn't quite manage to make his mark in online psywar boy? I mean a conflict where you actually contributed, rather than being the village idiot on one of the sides, or a mere gunslinger. How did you understand it without trying to understand your enemy's POV? If you think Sevastopol isn't strategically important, frankly you should just shut up. I've just told you what the most important plank of its strategic significance is. Check with any grownup.
Hello
If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic Of China border, which side do you bury the survivors?
Did you know that George Bush II turned down an offer, by the Vietnamese Government, to use Cam Ranh Bay for the US Navy?
Another telling paragraph from that awful Russian mine story. This is a Ukrainian source speaking:
“Yuri Sak, an adviser to the ministry of defence, is less convinced. “They have been preparing for a war in which they mine from Poland to Lisbon,” he said. “I fear they have enough.””
The war is possibly over. In terms of Ukraine “winning”. I hope I am wrong and I am happy to be persuaded otherwise. But it seems to me that Putin has successfully defended his gains
As the Ukrainians say in the article, even if they had the right kit it wouldn’t do the job. They are running out of men
The war is not 'possibly' over, and will not be as long as Ukraine and Ukrainians wants to fight. Having seen what Russia does to 'conquered' territories post-2014 and post-2022, my guess is that the fighting spirit will remain strong.
But it also requires the west to back them for as long as they want to fight. Beware of doing Putin's job for him.
This is so fucking tiresome. Merely pointing out that the Ukraine attack is now bogged down in Russian minefields - and losing terrible numbers of men - does not make me a Putinist. It is the case. Read the articles. Ukrainians themselves are saying it
You're fine, but I think the issue is more that you keep stating the obvious (that Russia will take a lot of shifting from Ukraine, might never be, and it will be long and bloody either way) in a tone more suited to delivering an outlier view or a scoop.
But it IS received as an outlying position. Look at the people on this thread accusing me of purveying “doom porn”. It’s irritating
I think you misunderstand slightly. It's an empathy thing. This war is unusual in that one side is clearly and wholly in the wrong. We almost all desperately want them to lose. So your repeated postings of the obvious fact that this might not happen anytime soon if at all comes across as taunting. No, too strong, needling. Because that's its only effect. To needle. See what I'm driving at?
Did you notice the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia at all?
I hate to point out again what I have continually been pointing out for over a month now. The Ukrainians have only advanced between 15 and 30km south of Orkhiv in the last three months. They are not gaining ground fast enough. They need to go around or go over, because the minefield is killing them a piece at a time. Mines do not care for courage or grim determination, they kill the strong and the weak alike. They should redirect their forces in the North East, where the land is not so heavily mined and they can cheat by going via Belarus.
Leaving aside the geography of the Ukrainian/Belarus border is not the best for military manoeuvres - which was to Ukraine's advantage in the attack on Kyiv - Zelensky would be mad to take any action that might bring Belarus into the war, particularly since it would infuriate the Americans.
I suspect in any case you're misjudging his strategic aim. It seems to be to isolate Crimea and force the Russians out of it in the belief they will then lose interest in Eastern Ukraine.
Whether he's right or not I don't know, but it's at least logical. Russia does seem unreasonably obsessed with the Crimea.
Maybe the lack of desire for the US Navy to enter Sevastopol has something to do with it?
FFS...all these so-wise pronunciations. Some things should be obvious.
Привет товарищ
Have you ever been involved in a conflict, little fake-oh, super-boring, couldn't quite manage to make his mark in online psywar boy? I mean a conflict where you actually contributed, rather than being the village idiot on one of the sides, or a mere gunslinger. How did you understand it without trying to understand your enemy's POV? If you think Sevastopol isn't strategically important, frankly you should just shut up. I've just told you what the most important plank of its strategic significance is. Check with any grownup.
I genuinely think that Putin is a deeply sexually frustrated man and that’s his reason for continuing the war. It compensates for what he can’t get.
If one Ukrainian hospital is doing 100 amputations A DAY that one hospital alone is doing 3000 amputations a month. Ignore the deaths - tens of thousands of Ukrainian men are losing limbs.
And they’ve gained a few small pockets of land, a few villages? Then Putin will relay more mines
I’m sorry to be Brigadier Gloomypants but this isn’t good
You were there recently though so you’ve seen the grim determination in the eyes of the Ukrainians. They’re not going to decide the minefields are too difficult so let’s just give Russia the Donbas.
Russia managed months of suicidal human wave attacks in Bakhmut and Vulhedar despite everyone constantly predicting them running out of men. It’s not a nice thought that Ukraine may have to sacrifice to the same degree but I’m sceptical when the same people who insisted Russia has bottomless reserves of manpower and ammunition are equally confident the Ukrainian military is about to run out itself.
It’s Ukrainians themselves saying they are running out of men. And you can see why when mines are laid at a rate of “five for every square metre”
Imagine that
And now this:
“WSJ:
It was hoped that a successful counter-offensive Ukrainian forces would help force Russia into negotiations by winter. Chances of that happening now appear slim.
But now Western politicians are starting to think about preparing Kyiv for a possible offensive next spring.”
The Ukrainians are incredibly brave. And, yes, determined. But this war may not be winnable. Like Korea
If China steps in to support Russia indefinitely then it becomes analogous to Korea. That’s the only reason the South didn’t win the Korean War in the long term. The Soviets lost interest pretty quickly.
Whereas Russia is a crooked state in an advanced state of decline that cannot maintain an empire financially. So long as the West doesn’t go back to indulging it again.
China WILL defend Putin - and do what it takes. That is now obvious. They surely won’t let Putin drop a nuke but they won’t let him lose either. He’s their man. And he’s chewing up western money and weapons
And Russia's own money and weapons. It's turning Russia from a grumpy, fairly well-armed neighbour into a Chinese protectorate. It's in both America and China's interests to spin this out for as long as possible. It's not in anyone else's that I can see.
It's definitely in Ukraine's interests if the alternative is Russian occupation.
Given that the lines are moving very little, a continuation seems to be fairly against Ukrainian interests to me.
That's because you don't care about Ukraine's interests Putinguy.
Any movement of the lines liberates Ukrainian land. Something your ilk claimed was impossible.
Comments
It is moving slowly and deliberately.
It’s called asymmetric attritional warfare.
I know you are frustrated that there are no dramatic breakthroughs and exciting stories
But they are getting close to being able to interdict the coastal highway that supplies Crimea. They’ve also been attacking the various bridges. Yesterday there were reports that they have an established position on the left bank of the Diepner.
Keep the faith brother
The invade-Taiwan-soon faction will see a Russian defeat by the West as a calamity for their plans, for example.
The restocking of munitions in the West in general and Taiwan and South Korea in particular has an interesting parallel with the Korean war. The US and the West in general were running down their conventional militaries until the Korean War kicked off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rBlVnc_DEw
The guest also makes a rather alarming point that the danger may not be who replaces Putin, but what Putin might do before he falls...
Ukraine has to defeat Russia and make them think any future invasion really, really won't be worth it* to avoid being under constant threat.
Whether they can achieve that is a different question, but I can quite understand why they keep fighting.
*and as a side point, it will probably hope defeat leads to Russian influence in Transnistria and Belarus collapsing too, to ease the pressure elsewhere.
I bet Xi is *really* pi**ed off with Putin. The current situation offers China some opportunities, but maybe not in the direction he wanted.
I suspect in any case you're misjudging his strategic aim. It seems to be to isolate Crimea and force the Russians out of it in the belief they will then lose interest in Eastern Ukraine.
Whether he's right or not I don't know, but it's at least logical. Russia does seem unreasonably obsessed with the Crimea.
Infuriatingly hard to get more granular info on some of these people, there's Wykehamists and Wykehamists. Biographies could at least say coll/commoner/OTH
*) Putin sees this as a war against the wider west.
*) A victory for Russia is one that undermines the existing world order and gives Russia an upper hand against the west.
*) Regime security is an issue, and also an objective.
*) Putin probably does not differentiate between Russia and himself.
*) This is a struggle for Russia's status as a great power, reversing the events of 1991 when the USSR collapsed.
And many more goodies.
This is why the 'west' needs to keep supporting Ukraine; Ukraine is just a means to an end for him.
Any movement of the lines liberates Ukrainian land. Something your ilk claimed was impossible.
Slow but steady wins the race.
https://www.winchestercollegeatwar.com/Authenticated/Browse.aspx
A lot of the stories of these guys are fantastic although tinged with sadness but the level of research suggests the records are all there.
But Mosley would have been a Commoner clearly, they are by nature rapscallions.
Claims that Ukraine are running out of people just isn't backed by reality and is Putinist propaganda we should get from those registering on a Saturday for 15-40 posts in before the ban, not you.
Better to be liberating land which can be rebuilt, than to be losing ever more land to the villains.
During the same period, the Russians are advancing west thru the Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts towards Lyman, and have taken about the same or slightly more.
It's WW1 again.
Sending their troops into Vonoezh Oblast or Volgograd Oblast sort of region within Russia seems like the best way to detour around the front.
Unfortunately Ukraine are fighting with one hand tied behind their back so bring the front lines into Russia itself seems unlikely as it stands.
And yes Ukrainians are advancing South towards Crimea. That is critically useful and strategic for the war and they need to continue to be supported to continue their success.
profiles who bang on about eliminating the Kulaks.
Because Russia is 3-4 times as big in population, and now Ukraine is trying to attack through the worst minefields in military history
Apples and pears looking good, but blackcurrants very poor. Worst year I have had from them. Bit early for blackberry assessment.
As for plums, always check the early ripening ones for plum moth. A right pain they are once established.
https://www.rhs.org.uk/biodiversity/plum-moth
It varies from year to year but our plum trees have sometimes had half the crop affected, although that's probably my fault for planting 3 together.
Which reminds me, time to go and check if there is anything worth picking...
Russia may be 3-4x as big in population but they aren't willing to or able to send all their manpower into Ukraine, in the same way as Ukraine is. And they don't have the supplies of munitions, and they don't know what they're fighting for.
Did the people you meet in Ukraine want to surrender, or support their troops?
Https://liveuamap.com displays the lines graphically. The clock gif with the word "time" next to it enables you to look at specific days
For the area occupied
Https://nitter.net/war_mapper at the beginning of August displayed charts denoting net changes since Feb 2022. His graphs just underline the point that the net ground occupied is changing very, very slowly
At any time, the Ukrainians could decide to fortify the existing lines & turn this into another frozen conflict like the post 2014 Donbass borders. That they have chosen not to do so suggests that they still believe there is a reasonable chance to push the Russians out.
There's always that.
Now some will be unfit for the front line, some dodging the draft, others in essential civilian occupations etc but nonetheless a significant manpower pool. The limiting factors are more likely to be equipment, training and leadership at Officer and NCO level.
I think there are too many people on this site living in an echo chamber of yay Ukraine, win win win
And having now actually been to Ukraine this month, and talked to Ukrainians in Ukraine, I think I can speak with a smidgen more authority than more. Just a smidgen mind. Nothing dramatic. I’m not suddenly claiming to be Basil Liddell Hart of Bakhmut
It's horrible.
I still expect Ukraine to keep fighting on, but maybe not at the same intensity.
years of economic strangulation and partisan warfare is a tactical question. But it has been and continues to be a malign force in the world. Until it’s disarmed nobody in the former Soviet empire can feel secure.
The Taliban finally kicked us out of Afghanistan after 20 years, and they faced far more fearsome odds than Ukraine does. The North Vietnamese kept it up for almost the same time. We’re only a year and a half into this war and Westerners already seem to be getting bored.
Like Ukraine is running out of people (they're not, they've drafted millions).
Or that China "will not let" Putin lose. It's not in China's gift to let him lose or not.
And when challenged on these points he retreats to defending a different point, like that it's bloody, which nobody disputes. Rather than the extreme and false claim.
Not very conservative, though.
We need to make it clear: we will support Ukraine for as long as Ukraine wants to fight, or until the battle is won. And we need to be unified on that.
Of course there are a few GOP members (like Romney, Liz Cheney, Bill Kristol) who actually have a few brain cells and can see how terrible Trump and his supporters are, but when you've generated such a hatred of the "Libtards", preaching reason to them is pretty much useless.
It's fair to say the second half of the war has been more of a stalemate then the first.
Hopefully there will be a significant breakthrough before long.
BTW the answer to discussing milk prices is to use oat milk, which tastes like milk ought to taste and has some environmental credentials (though no doubt Monbiot will find a way in which oats are destroying the solar system), and we could talk about oat milk prices instead.
And, footnote, Victoria plums, fresh, raw, off the tree, are the finest fruit on the planet in a contest where the competition is pretty severe.
Standard in USA. Though of course ANY solution though up by Americans, MUST be unsuitable for Britons!
ADDENDUM - every morning at my local coffee shop, I order a 16-ounce "drip coffee" which is available either dark or light; I ask them for the later but with a little of the former on top.
Then I add my own cream.
For who? You? Sorry but don’t care what you want. It will take also long as it takes until it is done.
It will also be slow until it is fast.
“The minefield is killing them a piece at a time”
Which is why all civilised countries discourage their use. They also don’t distinguish between civilians and combatants. However the analysis indicates that, slow and painful as it may be, Ukraine is on the right side of the assymetric attrition equation.
“They should redirect their forces in the North East”
Which has much less strategic significance
“Going via Belarus”
Invading a third country would not be a good idea
No tables it seems and we don't know if this is a poll specially commissioned by the Mail or whether this is the normal weekly Deltapoll outing. The questions reflected in the Mail's coverage suggest this is a specially commissioned poll and it's interesting to see a 17 point deficit with Sunak becomes a 13 point deficit where Johnson still Prime Minister - how it would be with Truss still PM isn't asked.
It's a better poll for the Conservatives but I'm cynical and sceptical - my inner cynic thinks a pro-Conservative paper showing a poll with a 3-point improvement for the Conservatives falls into the "too good to be true" category.
However, one cannot question the integrity and methodology of a pollster simply because the result isn't what one would like or want so we'll wait to see if this is an outlier or a sign of an improved trend of the Conservatives who seem to have "bottomed" at 25%.
It could be worse
The truth is we've got "used" to it - the killing and the dying continues in the background for us and even (it seems) for some of western Ukraine. The early uncertainties and fears of escalation into something of potentially global import have for now receded.
The conflict is contained - it's more akin to the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s which began with huge threats to global oil supplies but de-escalated into a conflict of attrition.
I've reached the conclusion for many beyond the Ukraine and Russia, the status quo of the current conflict works and will be maintained. We'll do enough to ensure Ukraine doesn't lose - presumably we will also do enough to ensure Russia doesn't lose as well.
Ukraine is steadily and deliberately isolating Crimea. That has much more strategic significance
It does of course effectively give them control of the Kerch strait and indeed the approaches to Odessa, thereby rendering Ukraine vulnerable. But it seems very emotional as well. Perhaps a memory of the war they lost there, and the Tsarist dachas, plus Stalin's high point of hosting the Yalta conference.
Whereas demining Zaporizhizhia with people is?
Asymmetric attrition is very expensive in terms of people, and is based on a faulty assumption - namely, it doesn't matter if you are killing them faster than they are killing you. The important point is land. If you can gain land faster in the North East than in the mid south, then go there.
Why do you think the Brits fought in the Western Desert in WWIi? Because they could fight there and win.
They waited through the mud season
They are gradually attriting Russian positions and strangling Crimea.
Not everything works to a 24 hour new cycle
They waited through the mud season
They are gradually attriting Russian positions and strangling Crimea.
Not everything works to a 24 hour new cycle
@Samfr
·
4h
Think the way grid weeks are becoming publicly discussed things - "small boats week", "NHS week" - might be the thing that finally kills off this 25 year old approach to govt comms that hasn't worked in years.
https://twitter.com/Samfr
See why Serbia cares so much about Pristina, for example.
You might get that in a café though.
"Drip" coffee is what we were referring to as filter coffee. Most dedicated coffee shops have moved on from that and invested in better infrastructure, but many cafes still use that.
Maybe the lack of desire for the US Navy to enter Sevastopol has something to do with it?
FFS...all these so-wise pronunciations. Some things should be obvious.
You misunderstand asymmetric attrition. It isn’t about the speed of killing. It’s about shifting the military balance.
Land doesn’t matter at all. It should be strategic (military, political or emotional). Capturing empty fields not so much.
The Western Desert was about the supply route to India and preventing the Germany accessing Middle Eastern oil. It was strategically vital.
Appearances can be deceptive, of course: it would be that Russia is regularly hitting vital Ukrainian units, and have really destroyed 5,194 Himars unit as they claim, and the Ukrainians are keeping the behind-the-lines losses very secret.
But IMO this is what will break one side or the other: attrition, particularly over logistics. Such a break could be very sudden. And I doubt Russia will be advantaged by keeping on hitting the targets they *appear* to be currently hitting - just as the war on Ukraine's power infrastructure did not work over the winter.
The current view from my balcony
Without a viable Crimea, occupying Zapo and Kherson is pretty pointless for Russia. It is a a deliberate strategy to bleed Russia here.
And make no mistake. China is a rival. Russia is an enemy.
If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic Of China border, which side do you bury the survivors?
Did you know that George Bush II turned down an offer, by the Vietnamese Government, to use Cam Ranh Bay for the US Navy?