Some of the mathematics of the next general election – politicalbetting.com
Some of the mathematics of the next general election – politicalbetting.com
At the next election there will be 650 parliamentary constituencies so in order to secure a majority, certainly as defined the bookmakers, LAB needs to come out with 326 MPs which is 124 more than their GE2019 haul.
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OHIO ISSUE 1 - amending state constitution to require 60% supermajority for future amendments
with estimated 53% of votes counted statewide
No 934,590 58.25%
Yes 669,760 41.75%
https://news.sky.com/story/police-service-of-northern-ireland-in-major-data-breach-affecting-officers-and-civilian-staff-report-12936303
"Every police officer in Northern Ireland has data compromised in 'monumental' breach due to human error
The PSNI Assistant Chief Constable admitted the breach was made in "human error" and apologised to colleagues whose data was made public for two and a half to three hours."
No 1,351,605 56.59%
Yes 1,036,760 43.41%
Constitutional amendment pushed by Buckeye GOPers to require 60% for passage of future state constitutional amendments, most especially pro-choice one on November 2023 ballot.
Currently failing in all large counties, for example
Cuyahoga (Cleveland) No 80%
Franklin (Columbus) No 75%
Lucas (Toledo) No 74%
Summit (Akron) No 70%
Hamilton (Cincinnati) No 69%
Montgomery (Dayton) No 61%
Stark (Canton) No 57%
In contrast, Yes is leading in most of the rest of the state, including almost all rural & small town counties, with notable (and predictable) exception of Athens County in southeastern OH, home of Ohio University (not to be confused with The Ohio STATE University!)
Note that the entire northeast corner of the great Buckeye State is voting No as a block = the Western Reserve. So called because it was part of western lands claimed by Connecticut, whose residents were granted right to make private land claims when area was ceded to federal government as part of the old Northwest Territory. Settled primarily by New Englanders, who made the area a stronghold of the young (and middle-aged) Republican Party.
However, it does make that happening a bit less unlikely.
Hackers accessed names and addresses in ‘complex’ security breach" (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/electoral-commission-hack-exposes-millions-of-voter-details-jn588mjqc
with 99% counted statewide
No 1,674,428 56.65%
Yes 1,281,485 43.35%
Increase in Yes % as night wore on due, I think, to absentee and early in-person ballots being counted first, followed by ballots cast today (that is, Tuesday) at the polls.
Perhaps worth noting, that above results are being reported four hours after polls closed in Ohio at 7.30pm local time (EDT). From all 88 of the state's counties, big and small, who do the counting.
Showing that American election officials, administrators and workers are capable of a fast count - when there is just ONE thing on every ballot being counted.
Which is NOT the norm for 99.46% of US elections.
So (1) I don't think huge seat hurdles are a problem if the vote lead is huge and (2) what looks like a comfortable buffer could all disappear quickly once Labour are in office.
@MikeSmithson keeps taking GE2019 as the benchmark. Whilst this looks right on paper, it's an illusion and for punters it's an error. GE2019 was a one-off 'Get Brexit Done' election to unblock the jam created during the Remainer Parliament. Boris Johnson galvanised the voters against the unelectable trotskyite anti-semitic Jeremy Corbyn with the sole aim of Getting Brexit Done. Hence the December election. In many ways GE2019 was NOT a General Election.
The last proper General Election in the UK was June 2017, which resulted in a hung parliament. That's your benchmark.
Bet accordingly.
p.s. I'm personally very glad that Keir Starmer is no Tony Blair.
Not the most exciting stuff. If you search biggest data breaches evah you'll find the private sector easily outperforms the state anyway. I would regard id cards as a sensible and proportionate measure to combat illegal immigration - the system already knows me as a taxpayer, car owner, NHS patient, passport holder...
As for ID cards, no thank you. And your £25 for a NHS appt without an ID card is straight out of the reactionary tory right. Do you work for the Party?
I am very anti-state and whilst I recognise that these days this is a losing battle, it's one I intend to keep fighting.
While upholding trans rights, the Labour Party disassociates itself from radical postmodern theories.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/08/uk-trans-rights-labour-party/674944/
Full disclosure of my betting position: none open, I backed lab maj at 6 a couple of years back and cashed out at about evens.
What's yours?
Labour’s new position represents a big ideological shift, but it wasn’t presented as one. That is typical of Starmer’s personality, which is unshowy but ruthless. Unlike many American politicians on either side of the spectrum, he has tried to find a position that will make the debate less inflammatory, and to appeal to the wider country rather than his activist base.
https://archive.ph/AlfFu
This topic is an obsession of right wing reactionaries and, on here, by yourself and two other people.
I don't need a man to lecture me about what constitutes the biology of a woman thanks, not to pretend to be protecting me and my rights.
This is a highly complex subject which should not be a political football, even less so part of a trolling war on a political betting forum.
Have a nice day.
A desire to stick to the progressive line has meant that Labour politicians have ended up saying baffling things like “A child is born without sex.” Some have attacked interviewers for even bringing up the subject, which just drew more attention to their tortured answers. Stuck arguing about the exact percentage of women who have a penis, Labour couldn’t talk about Britain’s housing crisis, high energy costs, crumbling infrastructure, poor economic growth, and high inflation.
That era is now over, if rank-and-file Labour politicians want it to be. Two days after the Dodds column appeared, Starmer was asked to define woman. He responded simply, “An adult female.” If that answer is permissible in left-wing circles, interviewers have been deprived of an easy gotcha question, and Labour can go back to talking about economics and trying to win over the median voter.
I do, why don’t you?
The goal for a first term Starmer government is not to get distracted by culture war issues.
I would say, exciting stuff.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/09/risk-of-uk-recession-at-next-general-election-is-60-says-thinktank
2017 was a genuine fluke and a perfect storm. Just 56% of Labour voters voted for the party because they liked its policies or its leadership. The remaining 44% voted for a variety of reasons, many tactical, some to do with the EU. May was a significant issue, as was her manifesto (and not just the so-called 'dementia tax') but also there was concern about too large a Tory majority. None of those were really in play in 2019 and there was a reset.
It is worth remembering it's not just in seats that Starmer faces a huge challenge. A 1997 style swing delivers a Labour majority of 1. And that assumes UNS, including in Scotland.
The last time a party with a large majority suffered a complete wipeout in a peacetime election was in 1906. A better parallel here would be 1929, when changes in the electoral system (a wider franchise) and a lacklustre government coupled with a large third party delivered a hung Parliament.
That's the likeliest outcome here still.
Mike is great but not infallible. He makes punting errors, as do we all. Notably he is less strong when it comes to Labour, better on Conservatives, and generally outstanding on LibDems. For reasons which should be all too clear. I have often followed his LibDem tips, notably on Chesham & Amersham which yielded for me a good win.
Historically he has sailed with the wind. But the wind has changed in this country. At least for now. This is the first time for 30 years that the country has changed and appeared to embrace Labour in the polls. I don't think he, or a few others, have sufficiently realised the manner in which the tories have trashed their brand - worse than Black Wednesday. Historically it takes a decade to come back from that. 1979 - following the winter of discontent was similar. The covid-partygate-Liz Truss fiascos have left the tories reeling in the 20's and it's a sea-change from which they will not recover this parliament. It happens.
I do also have something of an objection to a thread which purports to be about the mathematics of the next general election but within a few words contains the comment that 'Keir Starmer is no Tony Blair.' He may not be, but that isn't a mathematical, let alone empirical, remark. It does contain an important point about the lack of love-in for Starmer's Labour but that may also be a reflection of people's weariness. Remember that despite Black Wednesday, the economy was in great shape in 1997. Tony Blair had it easy.
My arguments that the true benchmark for the next GE is the GE of June 2017 (which wasn't 'weird') remain intact.
GE2019 was a one-off. A unique midwinter 'Get Brexit Done' election. It is not a sound benchmark for the next election.
He is a very lucky general, but also adept at making his own luck.
If you had, the comment would have been simply 'Sir Kid Starver is a right wing reactionary!'
For most of us the answer will be "No!".
They really are his useful idiots.
Should the elected Sinn Fein block be even bigger after the election, and should they start to project a presence in Westminster (from outside the Commons - would be entertaining if they swore allegiance for the purpose of destroying it but its unlikely), they could magnify the moaning from the remaining SNP/Alba/PC MPs.
Won't affect the maths. Might affect the politics.
Final point. Your average Sinn Fein MP does more work than Nadine Dorries.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/08/08/the-smear-campaign-against-jk-rowling/
In fact it was actually great to have one as with it so many activities were quicker - opening a bank account, collecting a parcel, registering with a gov department re tax or similar - because it was an official compulsory ID card that no functionary would refuse to accept as ID.
the poorest tenth of the population had been especially hard hit by Britain’s cost of living crisis and would need an income boost of £4,000 a year to have the same living standards they enjoyed in the year before Covid-19 arrived.
In its quarterly update on the state of the economy, the NIESR said the poorest tenth of the population had been especially hard hit by Britain’s cost of living crisis and would need an income boost of £4,000 a year to have the same living standards they enjoyed in the year before Covid-19 arrived.
The poorest households – hit by weak wage growth, higher debt, the need to devote more of their budgets to expensive energy, food and housing costs; and with few if any savings – would be 17% worse off by the end of 2024 than they were five years earlier. The richest households would be 5% worse off.
Yes to an ID card to prove you are who you say you are, to access public services etc.
No to a database of all my personal data that can be readily accessed by anyone performing any kind of public sector function.
That was what the pre-2010 ID card proposal got wrong.
It is a great Irony that Remania has thrived despite Brexit, while Leaverstan continues to slide.
Fortunately us compassionate "extremists" have other non kid Starving parties available.
But if we consider the 2019 result to be the aberration, then a revision to the norm can be expected to happen as the start of any new electoral move. There are swathes of red wall seats which endless polls have shows will not just revert to Labour but will deliver them 5 figure majorities.
If we bake that 2017 reversion in, the task facing Starmer is much smaller, and much more attainable. Then we look at the two other political low tides from 2015 likely to come back in:
The absence of unionist MPs in Scotland feels like a situation that can't be sustained - so expect 20-30 seats to switch from the motorhome party.
The absence of yellow MPs in rural England is already a tide rushing back in. The focus is always on Labour, but as is clear it is the LibDems who will mop up disaffected sane voters in places where "Sink the Boats" makes people feel sick.
So, we reset the Red Wall. We drain out the SNP flood. We remove the dam from the LibDems. And suddenly a thumping Tory defeat is not just possible, it feels likely. To stay in power they need to preserve all three of these artificial positions. Which politically means they need to be Janus, a task they are spectacularly failing to pull off.
For the nth time. The problem isn’t the ID card. The problem isn’t the unique identifying code on it. The problem isn’t even the potential use of that unique code as a key on databases.
The problem is that every single time ID cards have been proposed (and he time that they were, briefly, actually implemented), they come with an attempt to link all our personal information together. And link it to biometric data - finger prints, face recognition. etc. and the make it accessible to everyone.
In the last such scheme, they were going to make everything the NHS had on you (for instance) available to council officials investigating fly tipping. When asked why, the response was that segregating data would be difficult and slow things down.
So if your finger print day was stolen, you’d just have to get new finger prints, eh?
It should be noted that personal for Important People (Politicians, senior civil servants, famous people who the government liked) *was* to be segregated. #NU10K
The only saving grace was that such an insane breach of every concept of data security would have gone the way of all such government projects. Collapsed after spending billions. Though in this case it would have got to the data leaking stage
Still, black passports hey?
Minimum wage was never the maximum wage in any industry, because... managers, of course.
However, my guess, supported by anecdotal evidence here in the south west, is that a larger proportion of the workforce than ever are on the minimum wage.
This report from February supports that but the change this year (minimum wage up by inflation, most wages up by less than inflation) will have increased the numbers on MW even further.
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7735/CBP-7735.pdf
The more the crank left foam on about "Kid Starver" the more you box yourselves back off into the political wilderness.
Keep it up!
I’ve always said I’m in favour of ID cards, if the following conditions are met:
1) They’re issued for free
2) You don’t have to carry them at all times
3) You can use them chip and pin to access all government services - so they would replace passports and driving licences, not augment them
4) That you had the power to access all information the government holds on you, and amend it where it is wrong
5) That civil servants who access your data are logged, and you can see who they are and why they accessed it
6) That if somebody has accessed your data inappropriately you have the right to take legal action against them, funded by the government.
And numbers 4-6 will not happen while any civil servant breathes air.
So - I oppose them.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3389196#Comment_3389196
Trump panders shamelessly to the religious extremists, but he's not one himself.
You sulked off long ago
Are you back now?
Was it Kid Starving that attracted you back?
We can blame Vladimir Putin for that one.
Fortunately, many people have managed to get better jobs than they had in 2019, which makes them better off than they would have been if they were still earning minimum wage, even if their living standard has declined in practice.
Yes, I understand that this is difficult to sell electorally, most people are not better off now than they were four years ago.
We should all be lobbying OPEC to start pumping oil, which will have the dual effects of reducing inflation and starving Putin of dollars.
1. Red Wall Reversion to lifetime voting habits. Scores of seats flip blue to red - 2 points for each
2. Scottish independence tide reverts now they realise Bully's Star Prize was a speedboat, and they live in Kilmarnock, and besides which the party have nicked the speedboat. 20-30 seats flip orange to red - 2 points for each
3. Blue wall revulsion to "sink the boats" tendencies. Another 20-30 seats to flip blue to yellow - 1 point each as on paper the LDs would be in opposition to Labour, but we know in reality every party bar the DUP are ABC
And that is just the reversion phase of the election. Then we go after the seats not involved in these three tidal movements, where we're not just resetting the 2017 and 2015 tides but pushing Red and Blue into places not won in a while. With a government this unpopular and unhinged, projections show all kinds of results are doable. Whilst I dismiss some of the more excitable predictions, you can see how it is achievable.
Achievable. Not guaranteed.
I didn’t like the last proposal for the reasons given, but given that I carry an OAP bus pass to say one should ‘never’ carry an ID card seems a bit silly.
Its almost as if two distinct things have happened. The pandemic, expensive food, energy etc is because of what has happened across the globe and would have happened with or without Brexit. That the cost of gas has shot up globally, and the UK relies upon gas, is not a Brexit issue.
The fact that the cost of housing is so high is a British issue, but not a Brexit issue. Build more houses to solve that one.
It is the sole remaining shibboleth for Brexiters that “Stuart Rose let the cat out of the bag”.
A brilliant government might have navigated that, but they had Johnson, Truss and co.
Sunak has made his bed and shown that working people only exist in his eyes to be taxed ever higher to provide welfare for those who don't work. That's something you can understand from Labour, but from the Tories?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/09/nearly-two-fifths-of-robberies-in-london-last-year-were-for-mobile-phones
A handful of floating voters have joined Labour's tribe, out of exasperation with the Conservatives, and much of the other tribe will simply sit on their hands.
That's what is different to GE2017, which was largely stalemated, and is what is going to deliver Starmer's majority. And, by the same token, means we could get another GE2017 result, or something like it, at the end of his 1st term.
For all of the ranting and the name calling and the attempts to belittle progressives, the simple realty is that the crankist left is Tory and always has been. Actual Tories want to profit economically off human misery, crankies want to profit ideologically off human misery. Same arse, different buttock.
The only people they seem to look after (and protect from policy) is the retired and they've dug a hole so deep there I struggle to see how they get out now.
I think that there is good evidence to support this increase. Party membership has declined from a low base, people seem to be much more issue orientated and no political party seems to be offering a coherent set of principles based on an underlying ideology. It is far more pick and mix for the parties and for the voters.
This volatility, if it exists, makes a big Labour win much more likely than the history that Mike sets out would suggest. Cameron's seat gain, which was very substantial, was not enough to give Labour a majority this time around. Only Blair got enough. But I can't help feeling that the game has changed and so has the electorate. I therefore find myself sympathetic to @Heathener's conclusion for the exactly opposite reasons to her reasoning!