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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s no way that UKIP should be betting favourite to win

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  • Patronizing shoulder slaps from opportunist Ed Miliband;
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10630349/Ed-Miliband-confronted-by-local-MP-over-floods.html
    Get your hands dirty and do something useful for once in your ultra-privileged life, Miliband.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Charles said:

    Polruan said:

    taffys said:

    Seriously, how do you manage waterways that cross a number of counties without some kind of "state" solution?

    Go down to Somerset with that campaign and see how far you get. See what their opinion of the environment agency is. See what the level of support for your overarching state solution is.

    Fair enough. What approach do you think the fine people of Somerset would opt for? Each digging out a channel in front of their own garden and praying the guy downstream does the same thing?

    Obviously not quite the same situation in Cornwall, but there's definitely a preference for government agencies to rebuild sea defences and (ideally) construct an inland alternative to the Dawlish Amphibious Railway, rather than a tax reduction to let us do it locally.
    Speaking of 'blame games' - can we blame Beeching for closing the inland route via Okehampton?
    No, because it's a totally unsuitable diversion line.
    1) It requires two reversals.
    2) It will be slow.
    3) It misses out some of the major population centres in South Devon - for instance Torquay.

    Besides, the sea wall is there not just for the railway, but to also protect Dawlish from flooding. That bit will need to be there until Lord Smith decides that managed retreat is necessary (boo hiss!)

    Reopen the Okehampton line on its own basis. If the Dawlish seawall does have to be abandoned (and Dawlish as well), then a new alighnment would be needed that can also be electrified, something like the GWR's 1930s plans (they actually started construction just before WWII).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dawlish_Avoiding_Line

    I'd love to be able to find the relevant parliamentary bills.

    All IMHO and IANAE. ;-)
    Oi, leave Dawlish alone. Family has a nice house down there, which we would rather see unflooded!
    I spent most of my childhood holidays in a walled garden not a million miles from there. Great times and brilliant childhood memories. Rock buns and milk shakes in Shaldon, followed by the a journey on the ferry from Teignmouth to Shaldon, pretending the black-and-white boats were warships.
  • Watched Hammond on Sky. He was very impressive: calm, patient, courteous and informative in the face of sustained hectoring. The cynic in me couldn't help thinking that those shouting at him, and not listening to what he was saying, were aiming to be profiled as "people's champions" or similar on the front page of tomorrow's newspapers. But maybe I am being too cynical.
  • AveryLP said:

    Agree aside from the "damage" Cameron has done. I don't understand this attitude; Cameron took a party which had been trounced three times by Blair and recovered 100 seats plus. He came in to fix the economy and has fixed it. He has got some things wrong, but surely it is right he has fixed the economy and to have got Europe wrong than to have fixed Europe and trashed the economy?

    You can argue in such short-termist terms if you like but a) the economy has not been fixed, it has been stabilised which is very different, its an awful long way from addressing the underlying weaknesses and I'm far from convinced there is the will in the Tory leadership to actually fix it properly (as Osborne's housing bubble suggests) b) The EU to Eurosceptics is not a sacrificial lamb. International Aid is. Wind farm and Climate change extremism is but British sovereignty is not a bargaining chip to try and win votes in 2015. What happens in 2017 if Cameron by some miracle did return to power and hold a referendum. Chances are the damage that that campaign would do to the Tory party whatever the outcome would be irreparable.

    The reality is he recovered 100 seats almost certainly to throw most of them away in 2015 and rather than reassure the trust people put in him in 2010 all he has done is confirm the doubts raised by those who opposed him re 2010. I was a party member and voted Tory in 2010. I cannot envisage a scenario in the foreseeable future where I will vote Tory again. In fact I think the brand is irrevocably broken and the party as divided and dysfunctional than it has ever been. Its not fit for purpose as political party anymore.
    What housing bubble?

    Can you provide any statistical evidence for its existence?

    Well if the Tories use of Crime and Immigration statistics is anything to go by the last thing I thought you would have done was demand statistics! However, I base my view on Osborne's own words.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/10618813/House-prices-Ten-more-years-of-rises-predicts-Osborne.html

    Ten more years of rising house prices, predicts Osborne
    Chancellor George Osborne says demand will push house prices higher over the next decade - but ruled out curbs to Government stimulus


    Frankly Osborne's words seem to echo the sort of assurances Gordon Brown used to make (no more boom and bust and all that). Anyway I'm no expert on these things and even if my impression is wrong it won't change my vote so there is no point debating it. You'll need to find another victim.....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Maybe we should be building a few more reservoirs to store all this excess water in preparation for the next drought, whenever it happens.
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    edited February 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Maybe we should be building a few more reservoirs to store all this excess water in preparation for the next drought, whenever it happens.

    I believe when Caroline Spelman was DEFRA Minister, this Government cancelled two reservoirs around London. You see EU 'guidance' on such issues is that despite how much the population rises that increasing water capacity is an activity of last resort. So much so that the UK Government would rather impose ineffectual water rationing (in the form of hose-pipe bans) during times of low rainfall than actually build greater water supply for the South East.

    That said given the nature of the flooding it probably will need a lot more than a couple of new reservoirs to resolve this issue although potentially they might help the situation.

    Water from end to end like immigration is one of those issues where the systemic long term failure of government (and undesirable interference of Brussels) knows no bounds.

  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    edited February 2014

    Watched Hammond on Sky. He was very impressive: calm, patient, courteous and informative in the face of sustained hectoring. The cynic in me couldn't help thinking that those shouting at him, and not listening to what he was saying, were aiming to be profiled as "people's champions" or similar on the front page of tomorrow's newspapers. But maybe I am being too cynical.

    Those shouting at him didn't want more platitudes. They wanted someone to break the deadlock of getting them bodies to relieve exhausted volunteers. They succeeded (Hammond to his credit delivered). Sometimes you can be too much of a cynic.

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Patronizing shoulder slaps from opportunist Ed Miliband;
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10630349/Ed-Miliband-confronted-by-local-MP-over-floods.html
    Get your hands dirty and do something useful for once in your ultra-privileged life, Miliband.

    A welcome foretaste of how ed is likely to perform on GE walkabouts. I note that the Telegraph reports that at the end of the encounter "Mr Miliband was then taken away by aides" as if he doesn't have autonomous powers of self-propulsion.
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