Seriously, how do you manage waterways that cross a number of counties without some kind of "state" solution?
Go down to Somerset with that campaign and see how far you get. See what their opinion of the environment agency is. See what the level of support for your overarching state solution is.
River planning should be tackled on a watershed basis. Which, to be fair to the EA, their plans often are. It becomes difficult when that watershed covers a massive area, such as the Thames, Trent or Severn.
Just be thankful we don't have the management problems of the Tigris or Euphrates. Try getting Syria, Turkey and Iraq around a table. ;-)
I love the fact that Fulham with a stadium of 20k have to cancel, but Arsenal with a capacity of 60k have no plans to cancel.
It's due to the transport links. Look on a map and you'll see that Craven Cottage is nowhere near a railway station, so no alternative to tube available. Whereas the Emirates Stadium is right next to Drayton Park railway station.
You could do Waterloo/Clapham Junction to Putney and walk across Putney Bridge - once you're across you're virtually at Putney Bridge station.
I love the fact that Fulham with a stadium of 20k have to cancel, but Arsenal with a capacity of 60k have no plans to cancel.
Arsenal did cancel vs West Ham on Boxing Daŷ last year because of a tube strike. I guess the trains weren't running either that day.
t is easy to get to Arsenal on the train rather than tube though. Drayton Pk is next door, Finsbury Park & Highbuty and Islington are ten minute walk away
2012 or 2013? I went to Canary Wharf and then Oxford Circus on Boxing Day last year (2013).
A request to the old gits on here (I can say that as I'm one of them) .... do you remember the 1953 floods? I was there, but was just short of my fourth birthday.
Was there much of a fuss? 400 plus dead might have got a brief mention on the home service, I suppose. Mike K would have been a teddy boy at the time.
Seriously, how do you manage waterways that cross a number of counties without some kind of "state" solution?
Go down to Somerset with that campaign and see how far you get. See what their opinion of the environment agency is. See what the level of support for your overarching state solution is.
Fair enough. What approach do you think the fine people of Somerset would opt for? Each digging out a channel in front of their own garden and praying the guy downstream does the same thing?
Obviously not quite the same situation in Cornwall, but there's definitely a preference for government agencies to rebuild sea defences and (ideally) construct an inland alternative to the Dawlish Amphibious Railway, rather than a tax reduction to let us do it locally.
Speaking of 'blame games' - can we blame Beeching for closing the inland route via Okehampton?
Times diary reports that 42 of first 45 bets on Ladbrokes next EU Commissioner mkt have been on Lansley. He was 16/1 - now 5/1 2nd FAV
That piece begins by pointing out the last time the Times Diary did a piece on unusual betting patterns, it was when bets were being placed on Peter Capaldi to be the next Doctor.
Which turned out to be true, so they're calling our next EU Commissioner as Lansley.
Lansley to EU commissioner, Andrew Mitchell to Enviroment ??!!
Nah, I'm going to ask Shadsy to price up Lord Howard for me.
Best suggestion here so far by a long way. Unimpeachably right-wing, heavyweight, non-bonkers, no by-election, Cameron owes him. Getting on a bit admittedly.
He's a few years older than Hillary, and she's running for President.
I still think Clegg is the interesting political choice as EU Commissioner. Could he really decline if offered it? He must know as well as everyone else that he is a block to any chance of an electoral recovery of the LibDems. And Cameron needs some electoral recovery of the LibDems by May 2015. A new leader, without having to knife the existing leader in the back (I appreciate this may be a novelty for LibDems, so they might not have ever considered it...) New leader can say "I disagree with Nick..." and have the required distance to ask the voters for support. It gives the Coalition the opportunity for a break - or at least, to come up with individual requirements for any future agreement.
OR alternatively - I still think Farage is the interesting choice as EU Commissioner. Could he really decline if offered it? Would the EU REALLY refuse to consider an MEP "a committed European"? Cameron gets rid of a troublesome priest and the life-force of UKIP if he goes. He gets credit for trying if they reject him - and he can rail about how undemocratic the EU is and why it needs to offer up serious reforms....ahead of a referendum the LibDems and Labour won't give you. (Not backing this up with cash at the bookies though!)
I was about to offer an extremely vulgar analogy so I'd better stop there.
That's funny... because at virtually every election we hear that Ukip have peaked and yet nothing of the sort happens, their vote share continues to increase. Maybe you ought to rephrase as 'I wish Ukip would peak' rather than making an assumption that seems to be backed by no real evidence.
But as for what Ukip hope to achieve against the Tories, as a 20-something young male from a Labour area, let me tell you. In my opinion, Ukip - and more so Farage who has met with Presten Manning - are aiming to do something along the lines of what happened in Canada in the early 1990s whereby the Progressive Conservative Party was wiped out by the Reform Party under a FPTP system. Today, the Reform Party (renamed) is now the Government of Canada. That to me is my aim by voting for Ukip and why?
Because under FPTP - as Peter Hitchens has pointed out - we're stuck with two parties. Therefore, if somebody like me who wants immigration controls, national sovereignty returned and grammar schools returned votes in an election then it's pretty worthless unless we control one of the main parties. As the Tory Party is a dying brand and we haven't a hope of taking over it, the simple answer is this: to destroy it.
I love the fact that Fulham with a stadium of 20k have to cancel, but Arsenal with a capacity of 60k have no plans to cancel.
Arsenal did cancel vs West Ham on Boxing Daŷ last year because of a tube strike. I guess the trains weren't running either that day.
t is easy to get to Arsenal on the train rather than tube though. Drayton Pk is next door, Finsbury Park & Highbuty and Islington are ten minute walk away
2012 or 2013? I went to Canary Wharf and then Oxford Circus on Boxing Day last year (2013).
A request to the old gits on here (I can say that as I'm one of them) .... do you remember the 1953 floods? I was there, but was just short of my fourth birthday.
Was there much of a fuss? 400 plus dead might have got a brief mention on the home service, I suppose. Mike K would have been a teddy boy at the time.
To be fair, floods in the past must have had a lot less of an impact for the following reasons:
1) Less people 2) Less transport, (and people travelled less) 3) Less impact of the floods in terms of damaging electrical items etc etc. (ok much more of a minor impact than the first two, but still). 4) Probably more community spirit, and 'war spirit' which still existed, so people just got on with it.
I still think Clegg is the interesting political choice as EU Commissioner. Could he really decline if offered it? He must know as well as everyone else that he is a block to any chance of an electoral recovery of the LibDems. And Cameron needs some electoral recovery of the LibDems by May 2015. A new leader, without having to knife the existing leader in the back (I appreciate this may be a novelty for LibDems, so they might not have ever considered it...) New leader can say "I disagree with Nick..." and have the required distance to ask the voters for support. It gives the Coalition the opportunity for a break - or at least, to come up with individual requirements for any future agreement.
Everything about it makes sense, but will Cameron have the political space to do it? His backbenchers aren't exactly renowned for their cold, calculating strategic sense of their party's best interests.
So, UKIP are currently polling mid-teens in national VI, their voters are older than average (which usually means more likely to vote), and they say they're more likely to vote.
Yet in an election which couldn't have been designed better for UKIP's purposes, where the turnout is likely to be only around half that of a general election, we're asked to believe that their *share* will only be a little higher than current GE VI - never mind their overall vote.
In 2009, UKIP polled about 2.5m votes, equating to 16.6%. The following year in the GE, those figures dropped to less than 1m, or about 3%.
What current polls suggest is that between well over 3m voters - maybe as many as 5m - are considering UKIP for a general election, and that these are quite committed voters (though whether their alliegance is committed is another question). It seems to me extraordinary that polls for a *European* election indicate fewer UKIP voters than for a notional simultaneous GE.
If UKIP is still polling mid-teens in GE VI, I'd be very surprised if they take less than 25% in the EP elections.
I still think Clegg is the interesting political choice as EU Commissioner. Could he really decline if offered it? He must know as well as everyone else that he is a block to any chance of an electoral recovery of the LibDems. And Cameron needs some electoral recovery of the LibDems by May 2015. A new leader, without having to knife the existing leader in the back (I appreciate this may be a novelty for LibDems, so they might not have ever considered it...) New leader can say "I disagree with Nick..." and have the required distance to ask the voters for support. It gives the Coalition the opportunity for a break - or at least, to come up with individual requirements for any future agreement.
OR alternatively - I still think Farage is the interesting choice as EU Commissioner. Could he really decline if offered it? Would the EU REALLY refuse to consider an MEP "a committed European"? Cameron gets rid of a troublesome priest and the life-force of UKIP if he goes. He gets credit for trying if they reject him - and he can rail about how undemocratic the EU is and why it needs to offer up serious reforms....ahead of a referendum the LibDems and Labour won't give you. (Not backing this up with cash at the bookies though!)
I can't see the Tory backbenchers being happy with a Pro-European becoming our EU Commissioner.
Making Farage Commissioner is risky for Dave, the tory strategy is to make Farage and UKIP appear to be the loud mouth at the pub, this elevates UKIP and Farage
Farage accepting an offer from Dave maybe the biggest mistake since Emperor Valerian decided to meet Shapur I to discuss a peace treaty.
(For those who don't know, Valerian went to meet Shapur under a truce to discuss a peace treaty, and Shapur violated the truce, and took Valerian prisoner, and Valerian literally became a human foot stool for the rest of his life)
Mr. Me, perhaps I should write a political satire.
The Marvellous Misadventures of the Mendacious Miliband.
Or: The Cretinous Calamity of Clegg and Cameron (as your taste prefers).
I do have a vague notion of mocking democracy in one of Sir Edric's books. The way it rewards men most skilled at deceptive persuasiveness, and how it purports to allow anyone to rise to the top, but actually they're all a class apart. Or even the way that voters are bribed with their own money.
UKIP's ranks of ex-Tory old duffers will probably turn out, angrily etching their cross into the ballot paper as if it's the face of an immigrant or A Gay.
Hugh - I'm 35, gay and have never voted Tory. Nevertheless I'll be voting UKIP at the Euros as I want to give the arrogant, corrupt and out of touch EU a good kick up the backside. I suspect many across Europe will be thinking the same way.
I love the fact that Fulham with a stadium of 20k have to cancel, but Arsenal with a capacity of 60k have no plans to cancel.
It's due to the transport links. Look on a map and you'll see that Craven Cottage is nowhere near a railway station, so no alternative to tube available. Whereas the Emirates Stadium is right next to Drayton Park railway station.
You could do Waterloo/Clapham Junction to Putney and walk across Putney Bridge - once you're across you're virtually at Putney Bridge station.
Hardly a convenient journey for Liverpool supporters coming from Euston with no tube though.
Ian McNaught-Davis has died too. http://www.drobe.co.uk/article.php?id=1781 Responsible for sparking many people's interest, including mine, in computers in the early 80s...
River planning should be tackled on a watershed basis.
England has always had a hard time making sensible regional boundaries, and ended up with a byzantine rats-nest of overlapping areas for different things, so nobody has any idea who the hell is responsible for anything.
Maybe they should throw it all out and restructure all Britain's of local government on a watershed basis.
. The key thing is that this is the wettest winter for 250 years. i think it is a miracle and testament to the excellent flood defences we have that hundreds of thousands of properties are not flooded. If this level of rainfall had happened in the 1970s then huge areas of the UK would be under water and there would be a national crisis of epic proportions. Nature is a wonderful but deadly thing sometimes and this year it has decided to pick on the UK. Its just one of those things. Lets take the people who live on the banks of the thames, how can it be the governments fault that this biblical rainfall that we have had has caused the flooding of their homes? The water table is at record high levels throughout the south of england. The blame culture in this country needs to change, its embarrassing.
It could have been worse (without the excellent activities of central government...) but could perhaps have been better. For example, some might say that concreting large amounts of land which previously absorbed water slowly; reducing tree cover; building on flood plain and walling in sections of river so it flows through faster - those are all reasons that this biblical rainfall has caused the flooding of more homes than could otherwise have been the case. Questioning whether past decisions were wise and trying to make sure smarter decisions are made in future isn't necessarily a blame culture...
,,,on the other hand, buying a new house on a field that's been underwater every decade or two, then bleating because the army aren't sent to build a wall round it, that probably is a bit embarrassing....
Seriously, how do you manage waterways that cross a number of counties without some kind of "state" solution?
Go down to Somerset with that campaign and see how far you get. See what their opinion of the environment agency is. See what the level of support for your overarching state solution is.
Fair enough. What approach do you think the fine people of Somerset would opt for? Each digging out a channel in front of their own garden and praying the guy downstream does the same thing?
Obviously not quite the same situation in Cornwall, but there's definitely a preference for government agencies to rebuild sea defences and (ideally) construct an inland alternative to the Dawlish Amphibious Railway, rather than a tax reduction to let us do it locally.
Speaking of 'blame games' - can we blame Beeching for closing the inland route via Okehampton?
No, because it's a totally unsuitable diversion line. 1) It requires two reversals. 2) It will be slow. 3) It misses out some of the major population centres in South Devon - for instance Torquay.
Besides, the sea wall is there not just for the railway, but to also protect Dawlish from flooding. That bit will need to be there until Lord Smith decides that managed retreat is necessary (boo hiss!)
Reopen the Okehampton line on its own basis. If the Dawlish seawall does have to be abandoned (and Dawlish as well), then a new alighnment would be needed that can also be electrified, something like the GWR's 1930s plans (they actually started construction just before WWII).
Seriously, how do you manage waterways that cross a number of counties without some kind of "state" solution?
Go down to Somerset with that campaign and see how far you get. See what their opinion of the environment agency is. See what the level of support for your overarching state solution is.
Fair enough. What approach do you think the fine people of Somerset would opt for? Each digging out a channel in front of their own garden and praying the guy downstream does the same thing?
Obviously not quite the same situation in Cornwall, but there's definitely a preference for government agencies to rebuild sea defences and (ideally) construct an inland alternative to the Dawlish Amphibious Railway, rather than a tax reduction to let us do it locally.
Speaking of 'blame games' - can we blame Beeching for closing the inland route via Okehampton?
I think so, though it may be more socially acceptable to blame Gordon Brown, bankstas, eurocrats and the BBC.
Out of interest, as something of an expert on these matters, what's your view on Network Rail's pronouncement in favour of the Okehampton-Tavistock-Plymouth route rather than the Teign Valley or Dawlish Avoiding solutions?
edit- I see Mr Jessop has commented on it as I wrote this, and noted the Plymouth double-reversing problem which I was wondering about too.
Brookie - I remain confident that Dave will still be at the helm in June 2015, not least thanks to the near brilliance of our Chancellor.
That this will eventuate without your (or that from Another Richard who has been permanently proscribed by law - though not yet his immediate family - from voting Conservative) assent is but a trifling distraction. We'll get over it.
John in your noncy southern ways you're just so soft you've forgotten what scrutiny looks like. Dave being PM and a Conservative victory are 2 different things as we can see at present. I'm afraid for Dave to be PM in his own right he needs to get out and experience life away from his comfort zone. So convincing maudlin midlanders, negative northerners and surly scots is the only way he's going to do it. At present he's too far removed to have a chance since he's not offering much that's relevant to voters above the Cherwell. Quite why you southern guys insist on high tax bills to subsidise Pontefract is beyond me but there we are.
Anyway if you want to get Dave back into power I've got just the election slogan for you - " I agree with Nick" . Happy hunting :-)
Cameron hasn't actually gone down a storm amongst his "own people" in the South-East, Mr. B. and for much the same reasons you cite for the Midlands. In fact I'd say Cameron's greatest skill is pissing off as many people as he can. Not that I think it will make much difference to the his party's chances of holding most of the seats down here, the place is too tribally loyal, but I think we will see a fair number of reduced majorities as people refuse to hold their nose and vote Conservative anyway.
That said, I was at the count for Mid-Sussex in 2010 and there was a point where it looked like Soames might have lost. In fact he cantered home with a 7k majority over his Lib Dem challenger, but for an hour two there were some very worried faces scurrying about the hall including that of the man himself. Now, the UKIP vote was but 2.5% and Soames undoubtedly has a personal vote, he is a popular and well-liked MP (we softy-southerners like to tug our forelocks to a toff), which I would guess is worth 10%. If the UKIP vote goes up to the levels polls are suggesting and Soames stands down (he will be 67 and his health, I think, is none too good), then the only thing that might save the seat for the Conservatives is the collapse of the Lib Dems.
Be that as it may Cameron doesn't just need to hold seats he needs to win some new ones and I just don't see that happening in the South East.
UKIP's ranks of ex-Tory old duffers will probably turn out, angrily etching their cross into the ballot paper as if it's the face of an immigrant or A Gay.
Hugh - I'm 35, gay and have never voted Tory. Nevertheless I'll be voting UKIP at the Euros as I want to give the arrogant, corrupt and out of touch EU a good kick up the backside. I suspect many across Europe will be thinking the same way.
Well said Gareth,some of the pro EU leftwing posters on here,just don't get it.
The key thing is that this is the wettest winter for 250 years. i think it is a miracle and testament to the excellent flood defences we have that hundreds of thousands of properties are not flooded. If this level of rainfall had happened in the 1970s then huge areas of the UK would be under water and there would be a national crisis of epic proportions.
Agree with this completely. The reaction of the media is embarrassing. For example, from the Guardian "Fire crews in Surrey alone have rescued 150 people in the last 24 hours." Golly, 150 people!
This is a crisis averted by at least 99%.
This does leave an interesting question of whether there could be more people on the ground to help the relatively small number of people who have still been affected. Some of them obviously feel abandoned to one extent or another.
This is flooding first world style. I much prefer it to the flooding problems you have in countries without our flood defence infrastructure and emergency services.
River planning should be tackled on a watershed basis.
I wonder what the people of Wraysbury are thinking about the big state, high tax, good services solution.
A leader of the 100 volunteers who have been rustled up over night in stricken Wraysbury has just monstered Hammond in front of the cameras.
No army, no environment agency, 8 police officers despite repeated and desperate pleas.
The message is clear. Keep your money in your pockets and do it yourselves.
Um. We don't have a big state, high tax, good services environment. I've lived in countries where they do. They don't, by and large, have this sort of problem. There are also low-tax countries that don't pretend to cover it.
What we have is a state that claims to be able to cope with all kinds of stuff on the cheap, and trusts the make-do soldier-on mentality to put up with rough edges and gaps. It's neither fish nor fowl.
Times diary reports that 42 of first 45 bets on Ladbrokes next EU Commissioner mkt have been on Lansley. He was 16/1 - now 5/1 2nd FAV
That piece begins by pointing out the last time the Times Diary did a piece on unusual betting patterns, it was when bets were being placed on Peter Capaldi to be the next Doctor.
Which turned out to be true, so they're calling our next EU Commissioner as Lansley.
Lansley to EU commissioner, Andrew Mitchell to Enviroment ??!!
Nah, I'm going to ask Shadsy to price up Lord Howard for me.
Best suggestion here so far by a long way. Unimpeachably right-wing, heavyweight, non-bonkers, no by-election, Cameron owes him. Getting on a bit admittedly.
I agree although Michael Forsyth would be another interesting possibility.
Brookie - I remain confident that Dave will still be at the helm in June 2015, not least thanks to the near brilliance of our Chancellor.
That this will eventuate without your (or that from Another Richard who has been permanently proscribed by law - though not yet his immediate family - from voting Conservative) assent is but a trifling distraction. We'll get over it.
John in your noncy southern ways you're just so soft you've forgotten what scrutiny looks
Anyway if you want to get Dave back into power I've got just the election slogan for you - " I agree with Nick" . Happy hunting :-)
Cameron hasn't actually gone down a storm amongst his "own people" in the South-East, Mr. B. and for much the same reasons you cite for the Midlands. In fact I'd say Cameron's greatest skill is pissing off as many people as he can. Not that I think it will make much difference to the his party's chances of holding most of the seats down here, the place is too tribally loyal, but I think we will see a fair number of reduced majorities as people refuse to hold their nose and vote Conservative anyway.
That said, I was at the count for Mid-Sussex in 2010 and there was a point where it looked like Soames might have lost. In fact he cantered home with a 7k majority over his Lib Dem challenger, but for an hour two there were some very worried faces scurrying about the hall including that of the man himself. Now, the UKIP vote was but 2.5% and Soames undoubtedly has a personal vote, he is a popular and well-liked MP (we softy-southerners like to tug our forelocks to a toff), which I would guess is worth 10%. If the UKIP vote goes up to the levels polls are suggesting and Soames stands down (he will be 67 and his health, I think, is none too good), then the only thing that might save the seat for the Conservatives is the collapse of the Lib Dems.
Be that as it may Cameron doesn't just need to hold seats he needs to win some new ones and I just don't see that happening in the South East.
Cameron's best chance of a majority ( and it's a pretty slim one ) is a LD collapse. But what he picks up in the South he'll lose further North since he hasn't really a feel for what flies outside the Home counties. Nor it appears do those around him despite people like Hague, Pickles and Osborne representing Northern constituencies. Pickles comments on foreign aid were just plain stupid.
I love the fact that Fulham with a stadium of 20k have to cancel, but Arsenal with a capacity of 60k have no plans to cancel.
It's due to the transport links. Look on a map and you'll see that Craven Cottage is nowhere near a railway station, so no alternative to tube available. Whereas the Emirates Stadium is right next to Drayton Park railway station.
You could do Waterloo/Clapham Junction to Putney and walk across Putney Bridge - once you're across you're virtually at Putney Bridge station.
Quite, Cap'n Doc, Craven Cottage is as far away from Putney Station as Twickenham Stadium is fro Twickenham station, as near as makes no difference. Not only that on the way from Putney Station one would have to pass the Spotted Horse, so could pop in for a quick pint with Peter From Putney, late gent of this parish, though wild horses wouldn't get me in there since they tarted it up.
Seriously, how do you manage waterways that cross a number of counties without some kind of "state" solution?
Go down to Somerset with that campaign and see how far you get. See what their opinion of the environment agency is. See what the level of support for your overarching state solution is.
Fair enough. What approach do you think the fine people of Somerset would opt for? Each digging out a channel in front of their own garden and praying the guy downstream does the same thing?
Obviously not quite the same situation in Cornwall, but there's definitely a preference for government agencies to rebuild sea defences and (ideally) construct an inland alternative to the Dawlish Amphibious Railway, rather than a tax reduction to let us do it locally.
Speaking of 'blame games' - can we blame Beeching for closing the inland route via Okehampton?
I think so, though it may be more socially acceptable to blame Gordon Brown, bankstas, eurocrats and the BBC.
Out of interest, as something of an expert on these matters, what's your view on Network Rail's pronouncement in favour of the Okehampton-Tavistock-Plymouth route rather than the Teign Valley or Dawlish Avoiding solutions?
edit- I see Mr Jessop has commented on it as I wrote this, and noted the Plymouth double-reversing problem which I was wondering about too.
The key thing is that this is the wettest winter for 250 years. i think it is a miracle and testament to the excellent flood defences we have that hundreds of thousands of properties are not flooded. If this level of rainfall had happened in the 1970s then huge areas of the UK would be under water and there would be a national crisis of epic proportions.
Agree with this completely. The reaction of the media is embarrassing. For example, from the Guardian "Fire crews in Surrey alone have rescued 150 people in the last 24 hours." Golly, 150 people!
This is a crisis averted by at least 99%.
This does leave an interesting question of whether there could be more people on the ground to help the relatively small number of people who have still been affected. Some of them obviously feel abandoned to one extent or another.
This is flooding first world style. I much prefer it to the flooding problems you have in countries without our flood defence infrastructure and emergency services.
Why aren't all ministers saying something akin to this? "Look, we know it is bad, and we are trying to help as best we can, but if it weren't for the flood defences already in place, things would have been a lot worse."
I love the fact that Fulham with a stadium of 20k have to cancel, but Arsenal with a capacity of 60k have no plans to cancel.
It's due to the transport links. Look on a map and you'll see that Craven Cottage is nowhere near a railway station, so no alternative to tube available. Whereas the Emirates Stadium is right next to Drayton Park railway station.
You could do Waterloo/Clapham Junction to Putney and walk across Putney Bridge - once you're across you're virtually at Putney Bridge station.
Hardly a convenient journey for Liverpool supporters coming from Euston with no tube though.
London Overground from Watford Junction to Clapham Junction, or Milton Keynes to Clapham via Southern Railway.
The key thing is that this is the wettest winter for 250 years. i think it is a miracle and testament to the excellent flood defences we have that hundreds of thousands of properties are not flooded. If this level of rainfall had happened in the 1970s then huge areas of the UK would be under water and there would be a national crisis of epic proportions.
Agree with this completely. The reaction of the media is embarrassing. For example, from the Guardian "Fire crews in Surrey alone have rescued 150 people in the last 24 hours." Golly, 150 people!
This is a crisis averted by at least 99%.
This does leave an interesting question of whether there could be more people on the ground to help the relatively small number of people who have still been affected. Some of them obviously feel abandoned to one extent or another.
This is flooding first world style. I much prefer it to the flooding problems you have in countries without our flood defence infrastructure and emergency services.
And only 5000 houses in two months flooded - hysterical overreaction by the media. That hurricane in the Philippines managed to kill 10,000 people in one night
"More than 5,000 properties have been flooded in the last two months after the "most exceptional period of rainfall" to hit parts of England and Wales for nearly 250 years."
"England has always had a hard time making sensible regional boundaries"
Rubbish! We had essentially the same county boundaries for a thousand years (until that fool Heath stuck his oar in) and they worked pretty damn well, and in many cases still do. Many of the problems have come about because supposedly clever bureaucrats have meddled with things they don't understand and the Civil Service are always trying to claw more power to the centre.
okay - the polls just look very unbelievable to me - based on the people I meet and the comments I hear - but maybe that's just my experience.
If these polls turn out to be woefully out, what kind of inquiry can we expect? At any rate, the implication will be that the public won't believe any of the polling companies in the run up to 2015, and that will act against the impact of the traditional FPTP system to some extent.
River planning should be tackled on a watershed basis.
Indeed, and for many years it was.
Unfortunately, budget cuts led the Environment Agency in 2011 to merge its Thames region (fairly obviously watershed-based) with the Southern region (South Coast rivers), taking us further away from that ideal. Perhaps those who control the purse-strings are now regretting that decision.
Seriously, how do you manage waterways that cross a number of counties without some kind of "state" solution?
Go down to Somerset with that campaign and see how far you get. See what their opinion of the environment agency is. See what the level of support for your overarching state solution is.
Fair enough. What approach do you think the fine people of Somerset would opt for? Each digging out a channel in front of their own garden and praying the guy downstream does the same thing?
Obviously not quite the same situation in Cornwall, but there's definitely a preference for government agencies to rebuild sea defences and (ideally) construct an inland alternative to the Dawlish Amphibious Railway, rather than a tax reduction to let us do it locally.
Speaking of 'blame games' - can we blame Beeching for closing the inland route via Okehampton?
No, because it's a totally unsuitable diversion line. 1) It requires two reversals. 2) It will be slow. 3) It misses out some of the major population centres in South Devon - for instance Torquay.
Besides, the sea wall is there not just for the railway, but to also protect Dawlish from flooding. That bit will need to be there until Lord Smith decides that managed retreat is necessary (boo hiss!)
Reopen the Okehampton line on its own basis. If the Dawlish seawall does have to be abandoned (and Dawlish as well), then a new alignment would be needed that can also be electrified, something like the GWR's 1930s plans (they actually started construction just before WWII).
I'd love to be able to find the relevant parliamentary bills.
All IMHO and IANAE. ;-)
Could hardly be slower than the Dawlish line at the moment - even when it isn't closed the sensible way of getting a train up country from Plymouth is not to - you drive up the A38 and get on at Exeter.
I am told by a local Councillor that when they sold the stations on the Tavistock line as houses post-Beeching they put buyback clauses in the deeds in each case.
The key thing is that this is the wettest winter for 250 years. i think it is a miracle and testament to the excellent flood defences we have that hundreds of thousands of properties are not flooded. If this level of rainfall had happened in the 1970s then huge areas of the UK would be under water and there would be a national crisis of epic proportions.
Agree with this completely. The reaction of the media is embarrassing. For example, from the Guardian "Fire crews in Surrey alone have rescued 150 people in the last 24 hours." Golly, 150 people!
This is a crisis averted by at least 99%.
This does leave an interesting question of whether there could be more people on the ground to help the relatively small number of people who have still been affected. Some of them obviously feel abandoned to one extent or another.
This is flooding first world style. I much prefer it to the flooding problems you have in countries without our flood defence infrastructure and emergency services.
And only 5000 houses in two months flooded - hysterical overreaction by the media. That hurricane in the Philippines managed to kill 10,000 people in one night
"More than 5,000 properties have been flooded in the last two months after the "most exceptional period of rainfall" to hit parts of England and Wales for nearly 250 years."
Right, if you only get 5000 houses flooded in an exceptionally bad year in a notoriously rainy country with a population of more then 50 million, it sounds like the government is probably spending too much money on flood prevention.
I love the fact that Fulham with a stadium of 20k have to cancel, but Arsenal with a capacity of 60k have no plans to cancel.
It's due to the transport links. Look on a map and you'll see that Craven Cottage is nowhere near a railway station, so no alternative to tube available. Whereas the Emirates Stadium is right next to Drayton Park railway station.
You could do Waterloo/Clapham Junction to Putney and walk across Putney Bridge - once you're across you're virtually at Putney Bridge station.
Hardly a convenient journey for Liverpool supporters coming from Euston with no tube though.
I would have thought most Liverpool fans attending the game will live within an hour of the ground anyway ;-)
I love the fact that Fulham with a stadium of 20k have to cancel, but Arsenal with a capacity of 60k have no plans to cancel.
It's due to the transport links. Look on a map and you'll see that Craven Cottage is nowhere near a railway station, so no alternative to tube available. Whereas the Emirates Stadium is right next to Drayton Park railway station.
You could do Waterloo/Clapham Junction to Putney and walk across Putney Bridge - once you're across you're virtually at Putney Bridge station.
And there's an absolute gem of pub just by Putney Bridge for a pre-match pint
Bricklayers? Brickmakers? Summat like that.
I think you mean the Bricklayers Arms in Waterman Street just off the Lower Richmond Road (as you come from the Bridge turn left just opposite the Dukes Head. I haven't been in there for forty years, used to be a Watney's pub, so the beer was undrinkable, but it was a small, cosy boozer full of nick-knacks and gubbins and a shove-happenny team that weren't very good. Pulled in there once, but the beer was better in the Dukes Head.
. The key thing is that this is the wettest winter for 250 years. i think it is a miracle and testament to the excellent flood defences we have that hundreds of thousands of properties are not flooded. If this level of rainfall had happened in the 1970s then huge areas of the UK would be under water and there would be a national crisis of epic proportions. Nature is a wonderful but deadly thing sometimes and this year it has decided to pick on the UK. Its just one of those things. Lets take the people who live on the banks of the thames, how can it be the governments fault that this biblical rainfall that we have had has caused the flooding of their homes? The water table is at record high levels throughout the south of england. The blame culture in this country needs to change, its embarrassing.
It could have been worse (without the excellent activities of central government...) but could perhaps have been better. For example, some might say that concreting large amounts of land which previously absorbed water slowly; reducing tree cover; building on flood plain and walling in sections of river so it flows through faster - those are all reasons that this biblical rainfall has caused the flooding of more homes than could otherwise have been the case. Questioning whether past decisions were wise and trying to make sure smarter decisions are made in future isn't necessarily a blame culture...
,,,on the other hand, buying a new house on a field that's been underwater every decade or two, then bleating because the army aren't sent to build a wall round it, that probably is a bit embarrassing....
When I was last in East Devon a few years back, my chum showed me (in the Culm Valley) a new housing development down on the floodplain. It was called, helpfully for prospective buyers, "Water Meadow".
But is this really the wettest winter for centuries, or is that Daily Express-speak? I am puzzled by this as Met Office comments and anomaly maps for Nov, Dec and Jan (admittedly not February yet) seem to show that we have had a rather less exceptional winter, certainly for Somerset. Which offers a rather different interpretation from the government's.
EU Commission vice president Viviane Reding speaking in London:
“The most powerful parliament in Europe is the European Parliament. Seventy per cent of laws in this country are co-decided there. There will be no repatriation of EU powers.”
Brookie - I remain confident that Dave will still be at the helm in June 2015, not least thanks to the near brilliance of our Chancellor.
That this will eventuate without your (or that from Another Richard who has been permanently proscribed by law - though not yet his immediate family - from voting Conservative) assent is but a trifling distraction. We'll get over it.
John in your noncy southern ways you're just so soft you've forgotten what scrutiny looks
Anyway if you want to get Dave back into power I've got just the election slogan for you - " I agree with Nick" . Happy hunting :-)
Cameron hasn't actually gone down a storm amongst his "own people" in the South-East, Mr. B. and for much the same reasons you cite for the Midlands. In fact I'd say Cameron's greatest skill is pissing off as many people as he can. Not that I think it will make much difference to the his party's chances of holding most of the seats down here, the place is too tribally loyal, but I think we will see a fair number of reduced majorities as people refuse to hold their nose and vote Conservative anyway.
That said, I was at the count for Mid-Sussex in 2010 and there was a point where it looked like Soames might have lost. In fact he cantered home with a 7k majority over his Lib Dem challenger, but for an hour two there were some very worried faces scurrying about the hall including that of the man himself. Now, the UKIP vote was but 2.5% and Soames undoubtedly has a personal vote, he is a popular and well-liked MP (we softy-southerners like to tug our forelocks to a toff), which I would guess is worth 10%. If the UKIP vote goes up to the levels polls are suggesting and Soames stands down (he will be 67 and his health, I think, is none too good), then the only thing that might save the seat for the Conservatives is the collapse of the Lib Dems.
Be that as it may Cameron doesn't just need to hold seats he needs to win some new ones and I just don't see that happening in the South East.
Cameron's best chance of a majority ( and it's a pretty slim one ) is a LD collapse. But what he picks up in the South he'll lose further North since he hasn't really a feel for what flies outside the Home counties. Nor it appears do those around him despite people like Hague, Pickles and Osborne representing Northern constituencies. Pickles comments on foreign aid were just plain stupid.
Not true. Cameron's only hope of victory entails the LibDems recovering their lefty mojo and votes and resplitting the left.
Seriously, how do you manage waterways that cross a number of counties without some kind of "state" solution?
Go down to Somerset with that campaign and see how far you get. See what their opinion of the environment agency is. See what the level of support for your overarching state solution is.
Fair enough. What approach do you think the fine people of Somerset would opt for? Each digging out a channel in front of their own garden and praying the guy downstream does the same thing?
Obviously not quite the same situation in Cornwall, but there's definitely a preference for government agencies to rebuild sea defences and (ideally) construct an inland alternative to the Dawlish Amphibious Railway, rather than a tax reduction to let us do it locally.
Speaking of 'blame games' - can we blame Beeching for closing the inland route via Okehampton?
No, because it's a totally unsuitable diversion line. 1) It requires two reversals. 2) It will be slow. 3) It misses out some of the major population centres in South Devon - for instance Torquay.
Besides, the sea wall is there not just for the railway, but to also protect Dawlish from flooding. That bit will need to be there until Lord Smith decides that managed retreat is necessary (boo hiss!)
Reopen the Okehampton line on its own basis. If the Dawlish seawall does have to be abandoned (and Dawlish as well), then a new alignment would be needed that can also be electrified, something like the GWR's 1930s plans (they actually started construction just before WWII).
I'd love to be able to find the relevant parliamentary bills.
All IMHO and IANAE. ;-)
Could hardly be slower than the Dawlish line at the moment - even when it isn't closed the sensible way of getting a train up country from Plymouth is not to - you drive up the A38 and get on at Exeter.
I am told by a local Councillor that when they sold the stations on the Tavistock line as houses post-Beeching they put buyback clauses in the deeds in each case.
Agree - by far the quickest (and nicest) way to Cornwall from London that I have discovered is the fast train from Paddington to Exeter, and pick up a hire car from Exeter station to drive the A30.
Why aren't all ministers saying something akin to this? "Look, we know it is bad, and we are trying to help as best we can, but if it weren't for the flood defences already in place, things would have been a lot worse."
Because it sounds heartless. And because the 24/7 pictures of flooded houses make it look really bad.
Seriously, how do you manage waterways that cross a number of counties without some kind of "state" solution?
Go down to Somerset with that campaign and see how far you get. See what their opinion of the environment agency is. See what the level of support for your overarching state solution is.
Fair enough. What approach do you think the fine people of Somerset would opt for? Each digging out a channel in front of their own garden and praying the guy downstream does the same thing?
Obviously not quite the same situation in Cornwall, but there's definitely a preference for government agencies to rebuild sea defences and (ideally) construct an inland alternative to the Dawlish Amphibious Railway, rather than a tax reduction to let us do it locally.
Speaking of 'blame games' - can we blame Beeching for closing the inland route via Okehampton?
No, because it's a totally unsuitable diversion line. 1) It requires two reversals. 2) It will be slow. 3) It misses out some of the major population centres in South Devon - for instance Torquay.
Besides, the sea wall is there not just for the railway, but to also protect Dawlish from flooding. That bit will need to be there until Lord Smith decides that managed retreat is necessary (boo hiss!)
Reopen the Okehampton line on its own basis. If the Dawlish seawall does have to be abandoned (and Dawlish as well), then a new alignment would be needed that can also be electrified, something like the GWR's 1930s plans (they actually started construction just before WWII).
I'd love to be able to find the relevant parliamentary bills.
All IMHO and IANAE. ;-)
Could hardly be slower than the Dawlish line at the moment - even when it isn't closed the sensible way of getting a train up country from Plymouth is not to - you drive up the A38 and get on at Exeter.
I am told by a local Councillor that when they sold the stations on the Tavistock line as houses post-Beeching they put buyback clauses in the deeds in each case.
Really? That's quite forward-thinking of them. As I've said on here before, the mistake was not the Beeching closures (or those before); it was the piecemeal way the routes and land were sold off afterwards.
John in your noncy southern ways you're just so soft you've forgotten what scrutiny looks
Anyway if you want to get Dave back into power I've got just the election slogan for you - " I agree with Nick" . Happy hunting :-)
Cameron hasn't actually gone down a storm amongst his "own people" in the South-East, Mr. B. and for much the same reasons you cite for the Midlands. In fact I'd say Cameron's greatest skill is pissing off as many people as he can. Not that I think it will make much difference to the his party's chances of holding most of the seats down here, the place is too tribally loyal, but I think we will see a fair number of reduced majorities as people refuse to hold their nose and vote Conservative anyway.
That said, I was at the count for Mid-Sussex in 2010 and there was a point where it looked like Soames might have lost. In fact he cantered home with a 7k majority over his Lib Dem challenger, but for an hour two there were some very worried faces scurrying about the hall including that of the man himself. Now, the UKIP vote was but 2.5% and Soames undoubtedly has a personal vote, he is a popular and well-liked MP (we softy-southerners like to tug our forelocks to a toff), which I would guess is worth 10%. If the UKIP vote goes up to the levels polls are suggesting and Soames stands down (he will be 67 and his health, I think, is none too good), then the only thing that might save the seat for the Conservatives is the collapse of the Lib Dems.
Be that as it may Cameron doesn't just need to hold seats he needs to win some new ones and I just don't see that happening in the South East.
Cameron's best chance of a majority ( and it's a pretty slim one ) is a LD collapse. But what he picks up in the South he'll lose further North since he hasn't really a feel for what flies outside the Home counties. Nor it appears do those around him despite people like Hague, Pickles and Osborne representing Northern constituencies. Pickles comments on foreign aid were just plain stupid.
Pickles is a northerner who represents a southern constituency. Osborne vice versa.
On the substantive point, I'd say it was the opposite: what the Conservatives need is a Lib Dem revival at Labour's expense. That won't happen with Clegg in the leadership and probably won't happen at all but to illustrate the point, take 8% off Labour's share and give it to the Lib Dems.
UKIP’s second place in the 2009 Euros came after the intensive media coverage driven by several weeks of Telegraph’s extensive and almost daily revelations about MPs expenses. We can’t assume that the same will happen again particularly as are seeing UKIP under much greater media scrutiny.
Well its easy for those who want UKIP to fail to dismiss their success in 2009 as the result of the expenses scandal but as this paper explains their support is based on larger considerations and cannot be dismissed so lazily.
We show that Euroscepticism is the biggest explanatory factor but that UKIP voters are also concerned about immigration and show dissatisfaction with and a lack of trust in the political system.Our findings add credence to the argument that views on European integration matter invoters’ decisions at European elections and we show how the balance of attitudinal explanations of UKIP support makes its voters distinct from those voting for far right parties.
Given the prominence of the EU and the Euro crisis, the greatly increased concern about immigration and even IPSA's foolish recommendation to offer MPs an 11% pay rise there is nothing to indicate that UKIP support hasn't grown significantly.
Not only that but whilst its true that the local elections this time tend to be in more Labour areas the turnout at those local elections last time they were held in isolation were 36%. That is pretty much the same turnout at the Euro elections (34% turnout at the 2009 Euros) We can all speculate about the make-up of that vote and how it might differ given the differences in the local elections but the reality is this is not a scenario like the general election where the normal May election turnout is flooded with general election voters. Chances are that the impact of the differing type of local election will be small.
Furthermore it is not as if UKIP have not done relatively well in by elections in some of those Labour constituencies whose voters will be heading out to vote in local elections in May.
Beyond that it should be remembered that ICM do not have the same reputation for predicting Euro elections as they do general elections. The average UKIP figure from their last Euro excursion was on average 7 points below what they polled with Labour and Libdems overestimated by a similar amount and the Tories over-estimated by a lesser event.
If such a variance was experienced again Labour and UKIP would be neck and neck. Again one can question whether UKIP can increase their vote similarly to 2009 and perhaps they cannot but remember this in April 2013 ICM had UKIP on 9%. Less than a month later they polled a national equivalent vote share of 22%.
That said it was always a considerable task for UKIP to win given the change in the national political landscape since the election but one which is perfectly achievable.
Brookie - I remain confident that Dave will still be at the helm in June 2015, not least thanks to the near brilliance of our Chancellor.
That this will eventuate without your (or that from Another Richard who has been permanently proscribed by law - though not yet his immediate family - from voting Conservative) assent is but a trifling distraction. We'll get over it.
John in your noncy southern ways you're just so soft you've forgotten what scrutiny looks
Anyway if you want to get Dave back into power I've got just the election slogan for you - " I agree with Nick" . Happy hunting :-)
Cameron hasn't actually gone down a storm amongst his "own people" in the South-East, Mr. and his health, I think, is none too good), then the only thing that might save the seat for the Conservatives is the collapse of the Lib Dems.
Be that as it may Cameron doesn't just need to hold seats he needs to win some new ones and I just don't see that happening in the South East.
Cameron's best chance of a majority ( and it's a pretty slim one ) is a LD collapse. But what he picks up in the South he'll lose further North since he hasn't really a feel for what flies outside the Home counties. Nor it appears do those around him despite people like Hague, Pickles and Osborne representing Northern constituencies. Pickles comments on foreign aid were just plain stupid.
Not true. Cameron's only hope of victory entails the LibDems recovering their lefty mojo and votes and resplitting the left.
Can't see how you work that out. Since the LDs started picking up seats in the Major years the Tories have consistently underperformed. Play around with the Baxter model and most of the initial Tory gains come at the expense of LDs not Labour.
"... he [Cameron] hasn't really a feel for what flies outside the Home counties..."
I think you missed one of the points I was trying to make, Mr. Brooke. Cameron doesn't have a feel for what flies inside the Home Counties, either. For all our jesting I don't actually believe that there is much real difference between the attitudes, values and beliefs of the people of Sussex and the people of Warwickshire or, indeed, Yorkshire or Lancashire (Liverpool excepted) or any other two counties one might care to name. Cameron understands his social class and hasn't a clue about the rest and what's worse, I don't think he cares, except to find out what he is supposed to say to get himself (re)elected.
However, in that he is not alone. Miliband seems to be the same, if not worse and, Clegg doesn't seem to understand the English at all.
Um. We don't have a big state, high tax, good services environment. I've lived in countries where they do. They don't, by and large, have this sort of problem. There are also low-tax countries that don't pretend to cover it.
Yes, we do. We're in the top fifth of economies by government spending:
Though I'm not sure what you mean by your point about high spending economies not having effectiveness problems. The Cubas, Bosnias, Belgiums and Italys of this world all have poor delivery. You might get the odd one like Finland that does it well, but you also get them among the low tax countries like Switzerland or Singapore.
John in your noncy southern ways you're just so soft you've forgotten what scrutiny looks
Anyway if you want to get Dave back into power I've got just the election slogan for you - " I agree with Nick" . Happy hunting :-)
Cameron hasn't actually gone down a storm amongst his "own people" in the South-East, Mr. B. and for much the same reasons you cite for the Midlands. In fact I'd say Cameron's greatest skill is pissing off as many people as he can. Not that I think it will make much difference to the his party's chances of holding most of the seats down here, the place is too tribally loyal, but I think we will see a fair number of reduced majorities as people refuse to hold their nose and vote Conservative anyway.
That said, I was at the count for Mid-Sussex in 2010 and there was a point where it looked like Soames might have lost. In fact he cantered home with a 7k majority over his Lib Dem challenger, but for an hour two there were some very worried faces scurrying about the hall including that of the man himself. Now, the UKIP vote was but 2.5% and Soames undoubtedly has a personal vote, he is a popular and well-liked MP (we softy-southerners like to tug our forelocks to a toff), which I would guess is worth 10%. If the UKIP vote goes up to the levels polls are suggesting and Soames stands down (he will be 67 and his health, I think, is none too good), then the only thing that might save the seat for the Conservatives is the collapse of the Lib Dems.
Be that as it may Cameron doesn't just need to hold seats he needs to win some new ones and I just don't see that happening in the South East.
Cameron's best chance of a majority ( and it's a pretty slim one ) is a LD collapse. But what he picks up in the South he'll lose further North since he hasn't really a feel for what flies outside the Home counties. Nor it appears do those around him despite people like Hague, Pickles and Osborne representing Northern constituencies. Pickles comments on foreign aid were just plain stupid.
Pickles is a northerner who represents a southern constituency. Osborne vice versa.
On the substantive point, I'd say it was the opposite: what the Conservatives need is a Lib Dem revival at Labour's expense. That won't happen with Clegg in the leadership and probably won't happen at all but to illustrate the point, take 8% off Labour's share and give it to the Lib Dems.
Taking 8% off labour and giving it to the LDs isn't going to get Cameron a majority - see last election. Cameron will only get a majority if he's significantly ahead of Labour and with his vote evenly spread across the country. Currently that's not where he is and looking ahead he's not well positioned to be so in 15 month's time.
Seriously, how do you manage waterways that cross a number of counties without some kind of "state" solution?
Go down to Somerset with that campaign and see how far you get. See what their opinion of the environment agency is. See what the level of support for your overarching state solution is.
Fair enough. What approach do you think the fine people of Somerset would opt for? Each digging out a channel in front of their own garden and praying the guy downstream does the same thing?
Obviously not quite the same situation in Cornwall, but there's definitely a preference for government agencies to rebuild sea defences and (ideally) construct an inland alternative to the Dawlish Amphibious Railway, rather than a tax reduction to let us do it locally.
Speaking of 'blame games' - can we blame Beeching for closing the inland route via Okehampton?
No, because it's a totally unsuitable diversion line. 1) It requires two reversals. 2) It will be slow. 3) It misses out some of the major population centres in South Devon - for instance Torquay.
Besides, the sea wall is there not just for the railway, but to also protect Dawlish from flooding. That bit will need to be there until Lord Smith decides that managed retreat is necessary (boo hiss!)
Reopen the Okehampton line on its own basis. If the Dawlish seawall does have to be abandoned (and Dawlish as well), then a new alignment would be needed that can also be electrified, something like the GWR's 1930s plans (they actually started construction just before WWII).
I'd love to be able to find the relevant parliamentary bills.
All IMHO and IANAE. ;-)
Could hardly be slower than the Dawlish line at the moment - even when it isn't closed the sensible way of getting a train up country from Plymouth is not to - you drive up the A38 and get on at Exeter.
I am told by a local Councillor that when they sold the stations on the Tavistock line as houses post-Beeching they put buyback clauses in the deeds in each case.
Really? That's quite forward-thinking of them. As I've said on here before, the mistake was not the Beeching closures (or those before); it was the piecemeal way the routes and land were sold off afterwards.
I was surprised, but he is a credible bloke and has first-hand knowledge of the issue.
Um. We don't have a big state, high tax, good services environment. I've lived in countries where they do. They don't, by and large, have this sort of problem. There are also low-tax countries that don't pretend to cover it.
Yes, we do. We're in the top fifth of economies by government spending:
Though I'm not sure what you mean by your point about high spending economies not having effectiveness problems. The Cubas, Bosnias, Belgiums and Italys of this world all have poor delivery. You might get the odd one like Finland that does it well, but you also get them among the low tax countries like Switzerland or Singapore.
Spending != Tax revenue. Where are we in the list of countries in terms of %GDP that comes in annual tax revenues?
(1) Phillip Hammond confronted by angry tired volunteer, asked what she needed from him, put her mind at rest that help was on the way then went off to help; big plus;
(2) Cameron hiding in Somerset for now, needs to get to the Thames this afternoon to recover some credibility but did say he didn't want to get in the way; small minus so far;
(3) Little Ed Miliband arriving uninvited to war room to politicise the situation, wasn't welcomed, got in the the way, looks as useful as a wet lettuce; no idea what to do or how to behave, added nothing; massive minus;
(4) Charlotte Hawkins - wow, looked gorgeous, did a great job talking to locals, no agenda, massive plus;
(5) Kay Burley should be sacked. Still as awful as ever, no brains, no compassion, unable to relate to normal people, still stuck up Milibands arse.
"... he [Cameron] hasn't really a feel for what flies outside the Home counties..."
I think you missed one of the points I was trying to make, Mr. Brooke. Cameron doesn't have a feel for what flies inside the Home Counties, either. For all our jesting I don't actually believe that there is much real difference between the attitudes, values and beliefs of the people of Sussex and the people of Warwickshire or, indeed, Yorkshire or Lancashire (Liverpool excepted) or any other two counties one might care to name. Cameron understands his social class and hasn't a clue about the rest and what's worse, I don't think he cares, except to find out what he is supposed to say to get himself (re)elected.
However, in that he is not alone. Miliband seems to be the same, if not worse and, Clegg doesn't seem to understand the English at all.
Yes Mr L I'm doing you southern chappies a bit of a disservice, your comment on Cameron not being able to think outside his social milieu sums it up nicely.
I noticed she also said this “British sovereignty is mainly in their head because they've signed the EU treaty and most business is in Europe."
Except most business is not in Europe. As with the three million jobs crap, hat's another lie Eurocrats have plucked from out of their rear ends.
“It is ideology and feelings in the British debate, not facts.”
Completely true: it's just a shame eurocrats like Reding and Clegg keep on bringing falsehoods to the debate. Without them we could appreciate the situation far more honestly.
Um. We don't hav don't, by and large, have this sort of problem. There are also low-tax countries that don't pretend to cover it.
e a big state, high tax, good services environment. I've lived in countries where they do. They Yes, we do. We're in the top fifth of economies by government spending:
Though I'm not sure what you mean by your point about high spending economies not having effectiveness problems. The Cubas, Bosnias, Belgiums and Italys of this world all have poor delivery. You might get the odd one like Finland that does it well, but you also get them among the low tax countries like Switzerland or Singapore.
Spending != Tax revenue. Where are we in the list of countries in terms of %GDP that comes in annual tax revenues?
Being a big state is about the size of the state, not whether or not you've bothered to fund it. If I borrow a load of money to make a big house, and don't use much of my own savings to do it, is that any smaller of a house?
Anyway, the data is in the very link I posted. We're the 16th higher country in the world for tax intake. By any measure you like, we are a high tax, high spending country. And what do we have to show for it, over countries like New Zealand or Canada?
(1) Phillip Hammond confronted by angry tired volunteer, asked what she needed from him, put her mind at rest that help was on the way then went off to help; big plus;
(2) Cameron hiding in Somerset for now, needs to get to the Thames this afternoon to recover some credibility but did say he didn't want to get in the way; small minus so far;
(3) Little Ed Miliband arriving uninvited to war room to politicise the situation, wasn't welcomed, got in the the way, looks as useful as a wet lettuce; no idea what to do or how to behave, added nothing; massive minus;
(4) Charlotte Hawkins - wow, looked gorgeous, did a great job talking to locals, no agenda, massive plus;
(5) Kay Burley should be sacked. Still as awful as ever, no brains, no compassion, unable to relate to normal people, still stuck up Milibands arse.
Putting aside your prediliction for Charlotte 'get those plums out of your gob' Hawkins, I would agree with you wholeheartedly. I would add that Dave still doesn't seem to get it whereas Hammond got there eventually. Spouting EA statistics as an excuse, as Cameron did when interviewed by Sky and hiding in meetings which don't seem to be delivering (which he's been boasting about for days now) is not the way for Dave to get people on side.
UKIP's ranks of ex-Tory old duffers will probably turn out, angrily etching their cross into the ballot paper as if it's the face of an immigrant or A Gay.
A false stereotype peddled by many Labour people from tim/Hugh all the way up to Gordon Brown and Bigotgate.
The problem lies not with immigrants, who are no better or worse in any form of measurement you wish to judge them by than English people, but with the politicians who let too many in.
I dare say if a government had evacuated everyone from Dagenham and housed them in Rainham, the Rainhamites, both the English and the immigrants, would be saying the same about the Dagenhamites as they do about foreign immigrants now. the problem is of pressure on wages, overcrowding (tim always talked about the need for more housing, maybe on flood plains(?!) ), and a rapid change in the nature of an area that people who lived there were used to a certain way, the feeling that there is nothing they can do about it, and that they are abused as racist for talking about it.
Labour will lose plenty of votes to UKIP as well, and that is fuelled by comments that sneer at their ex voters for think of leaving. You'd think they'd learn from the Tories mistakes
Ah yes I think Hugh is new to the site - he is certainly hitting it with vitriol high.
So in the interests of his education it's probably best not to tell him that you are a retired major living in Woking who enjoys nothing more than a couple of rounds of golf before a stiff G&T of a Saturday.
(1) Phillip Hammond confronted by angry tired volunteer, asked what she needed from him, put her mind at rest that help was on the way then went off to help; big plus;
(2) Cameron hiding in Somerset for now, needs to get to the Thames this afternoon to recover some credibility but did say he didn't want to get in the way; small minus so far;
(3) Little Ed Miliband arriving uninvited to war room to politicise the situation, wasn't welcomed, got in the the way, looks as useful as a wet lettuce; no idea what to do or how to behave, added nothing; massive minus;
(4) Charlotte Hawkins - wow, looked gorgeous, did a great job talking to locals, no agenda, massive plus;
(5) Kay Burley should be sacked. Still as awful as ever, no brains, no compassion, unable to relate to normal people, still stuck up Milibands arse.
It was a mistake of Cam to get local. That's for his lieutenants. One shot of him (somewhere) in a high-vis jacket and he's done. Then plenty of shots of him in planning meetings.
Otherwise he's always not going to be somewhere he "should" be.
Times diary reports that 42 of first 45 bets on Ladbrokes next EU Commissioner mkt have been on Lansley. He was 16/1 - now 5/1 2nd FAV
That piece begins by pointing out the last time the Times Diary did a piece on unusual betting patterns, it was when bets were being placed on Peter Capaldi to be the next Doctor.
Which turned out to be true, so they're calling our next EU Commissioner as Lansley.
Lansley to EU commissioner, Andrew Mitchell to Enviroment ??!!
Perfect for UKIP. Nige could have a field day with "Mr International Aid"
Putting aside your prediliction for Charlotte 'get those plums out of your gob' Hawkins, I would agree with you wholeheartedly. I would add that Dave still doesn't seem to get it whereas Hammond got there eventually. Spouting EA statistics as an excuse, as Cameron did when interviewed by Sky and hiding in meetings which don't seem to be delivering (which he's been boasting about for days now) is not the way for Dave to get people on side.
Phillip Hammond was brilliant; he behaved exactly how a politician should behave when put under intense pressure on live tv, and seems a natural leader. This was priceless for the Tories - if only it could have been Cameron on the spot. Little Ed was clearly out of his depth and the reaction of people asked about his visit was priceless. Equally priceless in view of little Ed getting out and about during an election campaign.
I am a massive Cameron fan, but just lately all the good work has been coming from Osborne; Cameron needs to step up and show some leadership like Hammond did.
No, because it's a totally unsuitable diversion line. 1) It requires two reversals. 2) It will be slow. 3) It misses out some of the major population centres in South Devon - for instance Torquay.
Besides, the sea wall is there not just for the railway, but to also protect Dawlish from flooding. That bit will need to be there until Lord Smith decides that managed retreat is necessary (boo hiss!)
Reopen the Okehampton line on its own basis. If the Dawlish seawall does have to be abandoned (and Dawlish as well), then a new alignment would be needed that can also be electrified, something like the GWR's 1930s plans (they actually started construction just before WWII).
I'd love to be able to find the relevant parliamentary bills.
All IMHO and IANAE. ;-)
Could hardly be slower than the Dawlish line at the moment - even when it isn't closed the sensible way of getting a train up country from Plymouth is not to - you drive up the A38 and get on at Exeter.
I am told by a local Councillor that when they sold the stations on the Tavistock line as houses post-Beeching they put buyback clauses in the deeds in each case.
Really? That's quite forward-thinking of them. As I've said on here before, the mistake was not the Beeching closures (or those before); it was the piecemeal way the routes and land were sold off afterwards.
I was surprised, but he is a credible bloke and has first-hand knowledge of the issue.
Oh, I'd believe him; I've heard of it being done in other places as well, when the council was objecting to the closure and/or felt the line could be reopened in the future. It's just very much the exception.
Way off-topic, I've found a map of the 1930s Dawlish diversion planned by the GWR and plotted the routes out on a modern 1:25,000 OS map. It still looks doable, but some major tunnelling and/or cutting would be needed, especially as it crosses Holcombe Moor at its 600-foot point!
I should really get back to work, but the combination of maps, engineering and railways is just catnip to me ...
UKIP’s second place in the 2009 Euros came after the intensive media coverage driven by several weeks of Telegraph’s extensive and almost daily revelations about MPs expenses. We can’t assume that the same will happen again particularly as are seeing UKIP under much greater media scrutiny.
We show that Euroscepticism is the biggest explanatory factor but that UKIP voters are also concerned about immigration and show dissatisfaction with and a lack of trust in the political system.Our findings add credence to the argument that views on European integration matter invoters’ decisions at European elections and we show how the balance of attitudinal explanations of UKIP support makes its voters distinct from those voting for far right parties.
task for UKIP to win given the change in the national political landscape since the election but one which is perfectly achievable.
People that are using the MPs expenses scandal and the publics disgust over it as the reason for high kipper vote at last Euros, are basicallŷ saying that politicians are held in higher regard now than they were then, and using that as a reason to say UKIP will fare worse in May.
But they also say the kipper vote in GE VI polls is down to the disenfranchised feeling that voters have, NOTA etc , a protest vote
Times diary reports that 42 of first 45 bets on Ladbrokes next EU Commissioner mkt have been on Lansley. He was 16/1 - now 5/1 2nd FAV
That piece begins by pointing out the last time the Times Diary did a piece on unusual betting patterns, it was when bets were being placed on Peter Capaldi to be the next Doctor.
Which turned out to be true, so they're calling our next EU Commissioner as Lansley.
Lansley to EU commissioner, Andrew Mitchell to Enviroment ??!!
Perfect for UKIP. Nige could have a field day with "Mr International Aid"
Isn't everything being 'perfect' for UKIP the same as everything being 'perfect' for SNP
offer an extremely vulgar analogy so I'd better stop there.
But as for what Ukip hope to achieve against the Tories, as a 20-something young male from a Labour area, let me tell you. In my opinion, Ukip - and more so Farage who has met with Presten Manning - are aiming to do something along the lines of what happened in Canada in the early 1990s whereby the Progressive Conservative Party was wiped out by the Reform Party under a FPTP system. Today, the Reform Party (renamed) is now the Government of Canada. That to me is my aim by voting for Ukip and why?
Because under FPTP - as Peter Hitchens has pointed out - we're stuck with two parties. Therefore, if somebody like me who wants immigration controls, national sovereignty returned and grammar schools returned votes in an election then it's pretty worthless unless we control one of the main parties. As the Tory Party is a dying brand and we haven't a hope of taking over it, the simple answer is this: to destroy it.
Important post thanks VoO (may I?). If nothing else it will confuse eg. @Hugh who thinks all Kippers are retired colonels muttering into their GnTs.
A party has got to start somewhere and the EU and immigration are as good as any. Neither do I think it necessary to have an insta-manifesto (which is just as well as neither does NFarage). Just some interest and newsworthyness and you have both of those.
But (there had to be one) - you are in an interesting not to say challenging demographic situation. Despite not being all colonels there are nevertheless certainly a lot of disaffected Tories of an older generation who are the "hell-in-a-handbasket" types rather than Brave New World types. For these there will be driftback.
I might also say that you are to a certain extent untypical in as a young person having such strong political views. By far the majority (wholly speculative on my part) of younger people are more cosmopolitan in their outlook not to say indifferent to those broad brush national issues.
Then there are the issues you fight on. You might find yourselves with some pretty strange bedfellows if you restrict them to immigration and the EU. So you will need to have a view on the NHS, tax (flat?), the environment, education.
It is peoples' (my) perception that you are a long way from that and don't show any inclination to change this. Hence you can be mistaken for a NOTA party. Or a single issue pressure group cum party. Both of those are not good for longevity.
So I wish UKIP luck (interlude: oh look there's Cam in a high-vis vest on the TV) and I am not asking the world from you tomorrow morning, but right now you need to define what it is you will be for such powerful aspirations as you have. This is where you are failing IMO.
Putting aside your prediliction for Charlotte 'get those plums out of your gob' Hawkins, I would agree with you wholeheartedly. I would add that Dave still doesn't seem to get it whereas Hammond got there eventually. Spouting EA statistics as an excuse, as Cameron did when interviewed by Sky and hiding in meetings which don't seem to be delivering (which he's been boasting about for days now) is not the way for Dave to get people on side.
Phillip Hammond was brilliant; he behaved exactly how a politician should behave when put under intense pressure on live tv, and seems a natural leader. This was priceless for the Tories - if only it could have been Cameron on the spot. Little Ed was clearly out of his depth and the reaction of people asked about his visit was priceless. Equally priceless in view of little Ed getting out and about during an election campaign.
I am a massive Cameron fan, but just lately all the good work has been coming from Osborne; Cameron needs to step up and show some leadership like Hammond did.
I'm not a Cameron fan at all. He's done severe long-term damage to the Tory Party in my book and has split the centre right to boot. He's put back the cause of the centre right by a decade or more but I would agree Osborne has done himself no harm recently and Hammond has again demonstrated he has sufficient political nouse to make himself a contender for Cameron's replacement.
River planning should be tackled on a watershed basis.
I wonder what the people of Wraysbury are thinking about the big state, high tax, good services solution.
A leader of the 100 volunteers who have been rustled up over night in stricken Wraysbury has just monstered Hammond in front of the cameras.
No army, no environment agency, 8 police officers despite repeated and desperate pleas.
The message is clear. Keep your money in your pockets and do it yourselves.
Um. We don't have a big state, high tax, good services environment. I've lived in countries where they do. They don't, by and large, have this sort of problem. There are also low-tax countries that don't pretend to cover it.
What we have is a state that claims to be able to cope with all kinds of stuff on the cheap, and trusts the make-do soldier-on mentality to put up with rough edges and gaps. It's neither fish nor fowl.
Times diary reports that 42 of first 45 bets on Ladbrokes next EU Commissioner mkt have been on Lansley. He was 16/1 - now 5/1 2nd FAV
That piece begins by pointing out the last time the Times Diary did a piece on unusual betting patterns, it was when bets were being placed on Peter Capaldi to be the next Doctor.
Which turned out to be true, so they're calling our next EU Commissioner as Lansley.
Lansley to EU commissioner, Andrew Mitchell to Enviroment ??!!
Perfect for UKIP. Nige could have a field day with "Mr International Aid"
The aid budget is significantly smaller than our "aid" to the EU...
Um. We don't have a big state, high tax, good services environment. I've lived in countries where they do. They don't, by and large, have this sort of problem. There are also low-tax countries that don't pretend to cover it.
Yes, we do. We're in the top fifth of economies by government spending:
Though I'm not sure what you mean by your point about high spending economies not having effectiveness problems. The Cubas, Bosnias, Belgiums and Italys of this world all have poor delivery. You might get the odd one like Finland that does it well, but you also get them among the low tax countries like Switzerland or Singapore.
Well, taking your source and look at tax take/GDP over 40% (arguably a better guide than government expenditure, which partly reflects the level of privatisation), and ignoring the obvious special cases like imor and Lesotho, we find Denmark (efficient), Sweden (efficient), Belgium (debatable), Italy (poor), France (debatable), Norway (efficient), Finland (efficient), Austria (fairly efficient), Germany (efficient) and Hungary (not sure). At the other end, we find countries such as Burma, Libya, Chad, Congo, Nigeria, Iran, Angola, Bangla Desh... Other things being equal, you get what you pay for.
I've left Belgium and France as debatable since they seem to me from my visits to work fairly well, despite well-known political and other problems, but I might be wrong.
It does, of course, partly depend on size of GDP per head (Switzerland would do well and Burma poorly at any plausible level of taxation). But I'd stick to my basic thesis, that we run an ambitious-scale government network combined with penny-pinching. It gets us through most of the time, but it's vulerable to things like floods and (in other years) very cold winters.
Agree aside from the "damage" Cameron has done. I don't understand this attitude; Cameron took a party which had been trounced three times by Blair and recovered 100 seats plus. He came in to fix the economy and has fixed it. He has got some things wrong, but surely it is right he has fixed the economy and to have got Europe wrong than to have fixed Europe and trashed the economy?
Putting aside your prediliction for Charlotte 'get those plums out of your gob' Hawkins, I would agree with you wholeheartedly. I would add that Dave still doesn't seem to get it whereas Hammond got there eventually. Spouting EA statistics as an excuse, as Cameron did when interviewed by Sky and hiding in meetings which don't seem to be delivering (which he's been boasting about for days now) is not the way for Dave to get people on side.
Phillip Hammond was brilliant; he behaved exactly how a politician should behave when put under intense pressure on live tv, and seems a natural leader. This was priceless for the Tories - if only it could have been Cameron on the spot. Little Ed was clearly out of his depth and the reaction of people asked about his visit was priceless. Equally priceless in view of little Ed getting out and about during an election campaign.
I am a massive Cameron fan, but just lately all the good work has been coming from Osborne; Cameron needs to step up and show some leadership like Hammond did.
I'm not a Cameron fan at all. He's done severe long-term damage to the Tory Party in my book and has split the centre right to boot. He's put back the cause of the centre right by a decade or more but I would agree Osborne has done himself no harm recently and Hammond has again demonstrated he has sufficient political nouse to make himself a contender for Cameron's replacement.
offer an extremely vulgar analogy so I'd better stop there.
Important post thanks VoO (may I?). If nothing else it will confuse eg. @Hugh who thinks all Kippers are retired colonels muttering into their GnTs.
A party has got to start somewhere and the EU and immigration are as good as any. Neither do I think it necessary to have an insta-manifesto (which is just as well as neither does NFarage). Just some interest and newsworthyness and you have both of those.
But (there had to be one) - you are in an interesting not to say challenging demographic situation. Despite not being all colonels there are nevertheless certainly a lot of disaffected Tories of an older generation who are the "hell-in-a-handbasket" types rather than Brave New World types. For these there will be driftback.
I might also say that you are to a certain extent untypical in as a young person having such strong political views. By far the majority (wholly speculative on my part) of younger people are more cosmopolitan in their outlook not to say indifferent to those broad brush national issues.
Then there are the issues you fight on. You might find yourselves with some pretty strange bedfellows if you restrict them to immigration and the EU. So you will need to have a view on the NHS, tax (flat?), the environment, education.
It is peoples' (my) perception that you are a long way from that and don't show any inclination to change this. Hence you can be mistaken for a NOTA party. Or a single issue pressure group cum party. Both of those are not good for longevity.
So I wish UKIP luck (interlude: oh look there's Cam in a high-vis vest on the TV) and I am not asking the world from you tomorrow morning, but right now you need to define what it is you will be for such powerful aspirations as you have. This is where you are failing IMO.
Brookie - I remain confident that Dave will still be at the helm in June 2015, not least thanks to the near brilliance of our Chancellor.
That this will eventuate without your (or that from Another Richard who has been permanently proscribed by law - though not yet his immediate family - from voting Conservative) assent is but a trifling distraction. We'll get over it.
John in your noncy southern ways you're just so soft you've forgotten what scrutiny looks
Anyway if you want to get Dave back into power I've got just the election slogan for you - " I agree with Nick" . Happy hunting :-)
Cameron hasn't actually gone down a storm amongst his "own people" in the South-East, Mr. and his health, I think, is none too good), then the only thing that might save the seat for the Conservatives is the collapse of the Lib Dems.
Be that as it may Cameron doesn't just need to hold seats he needs to win some new ones and I just don't see that happening in the South East.
Cameron's best chance of a majority ( and it's a pretty slim one ) is a LD collapse. But what he picks up in the South he'll lose further North since he hasn't really a feel for what flies outside the Home counties. Nor it appears do those around him despite people like Hague, Pickles and Osborne representing Northern constituencies. Pickles comments on foreign aid were just plain stupid.
Not true. Cameron's only hope of victory entails the LibDems recovering their lefty mojo and votes and resplitting the left.
Can't see how you work that out. Since the LDs started picking up seats in the Major years the Tories have consistently underperformed. Play around with the Baxter model and most of the initial Tory gains come at the expense of LDs not Labour.
For sure the easier Tory gains will be at LD expense and in the south - but that means the LDs are doing badly everywhere and Dave will get utterly rogered in Con/Lab marginals across middle England. Overall Dave does need the LDs to recover. Ask Mike - he'll tell you. There's no Baxter model with Dave having most seats that does not rely on an LD recovery.
Seriously, how do you manage waterways that cross a number of counties without some kind of "state" solution?
Go down to Somerset with that campaign and see how far you get. See what their opinion of the environment agency is. See what the level of support for your overarching state solution is.
Fair enough. What approach do you think the fine people of Somerset would opt for? Each digging out a channel in front of their own garden and praying the guy downstream does the same thing?
Obviously not quite the same situation in Cornwall, but there's definitely a preference for government agencies to rebuild sea defences and (ideally) construct an inland alternative to the Dawlish Amphibious Railway, rather than a tax reduction to let us do it locally.
Speaking of 'blame games' - can we blame Beeching for closing the inland route via Okehampton?
No, because it's a totally unsuitable diversion line. 1) It requires two reversals. 2) It will be slow. 3) It misses out some of the major population centres in South Devon - for instance Torquay.
Besides, the sea wall is there not just for the railway, but to also protect Dawlish from flooding. That bit will need to be there until Lord Smith decides that managed retreat is necessary (boo hiss!)
Reopen the Okehampton line on its own basis. If the Dawlish seawall does have to be abandoned (and Dawlish as well), then a new alighnment would be needed that can also be electrified, something like the GWR's 1930s plans (they actually started construction just before WWII).
Agree aside from the "damage" Cameron has done. I don't understand this attitude; Cameron took a party which had been trounced three times by Blair and recovered 100 seats plus. He came in to fix the economy and has fixed it. He has got some things wrong, but surely it is right he has fixed the economy and to have got Europe wrong than to have fixed Europe and trashed the economy?
You can argue in such short-termist terms if you like but a) the economy has not been fixed, it has been stabilised which is very different, its an awful long way from addressing the underlying weaknesses and I'm far from convinced there is the will in the Tory leadership to actually fix it properly (as Osborne's housing bubble suggests) b) The EU to Eurosceptics is not a sacrificial lamb. International Aid is. Wind farm and Climate change extremism is but British sovereignty is not a bargaining chip to try and win votes in 2015. What happens in 2017 if Cameron by some miracle did return to power and hold a referendum. Chances are the damage that that campaign would do to the Tory party whatever the outcome would be irreparable.
The reality is he recovered 100 seats almost certainly to throw most of them away n 2015 due to his interim actions and rather than reassure the trust people put in him in 2010 all he has done is confirm the doubts raised by those who opposed him pre 2010. I was a party member and voted Tory in 2010. I cannot envisage a scenario in the foreseeable future where I will vote Tory again. In fact I think the brand is irrevocably broken and the party as divided and dysfunctional as it has ever been. Its not fit for purpose as political party anymore.
Agree aside from the "damage" Cameron has done. I don't understand this attitude; Cameron took a party which had been trounced three times by Blair and recovered 100 seats plus. He came in to fix the economy and has fixed it. He has got some things wrong, but surely it is right he has fixed the economy and to have got Europe wrong than to have fixed Europe and trashed the economy?
You can argue in such short-termist terms if you like but a) the economy has not been fixed, it has been stabilised which is very different, its an awful long way from addressing the underlying weaknesses and I'm far from convinced there is the will in the Tory leadership to actually fix it properly (as Osborne's housing bubble suggests) b) The EU to Eurosceptics is not a sacrificial lamb. International Aid is. Wind farm and Climate change extremism is but British sovereignty is not a bargaining chip to try and win votes in 2015. What happens in 2017 if Cameron by some miracle did return to power and hold a referendum. Chances are the damage that that campaign would do to the Tory party whatever the outcome would be irreparable.
The reality is he recovered 100 seats almost certainly to throw most of them away in 2015 and rather than reassure the trust people put in him in 2010 all he has done is confirm the doubts raised by those who opposed him re 2010. I was a party member and voted Tory in 2010. I cannot envisage a scenario in the foreseeable future where I will vote Tory again. In fact I think the brand is irrevocably broken and the party as divided and dysfunctional than it has ever been. Its not fit for purpose as political party anymore.
What housing bubble?
Can you provide any statistical evidence for its existence?
Comments
Just be thankful we don't have the management problems of the Tigris or Euphrates. Try getting Syria, Turkey and Iraq around a table. ;-)
Was there much of a fuss? 400 plus dead might have got a brief mention on the home service, I suppose. Mike K would have been a teddy boy at the time.
Being in your 70s is the new 50s.
OR alternatively - I still think Farage is the interesting choice as EU Commissioner. Could he really decline if offered it? Would the EU REALLY refuse to consider an MEP "a committed European"? Cameron gets rid of a troublesome priest and the life-force of UKIP if he goes. He gets credit for trying if they reject him - and he can rail about how undemocratic the EU is and why it needs to offer up serious reforms....ahead of a referendum the LibDems and Labour won't give you. (Not backing this up with cash at the bookies though!)
The truth about Britain's volatile electorate
If the main parties fall into the trap of targeting their messages too narrowly, it could cost them the 2015 election
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/11/truth-about-britain-volatile-electorate-election-2015
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/02/shirley-temple-1928-2014-remembered-in-the-spectator/
1) Less people
2) Less transport, (and people travelled less)
3) Less impact of the floods in terms of damaging electrical items etc etc. (ok much more of a minor impact than the first two, but still).
4) Probably more community spirit, and 'war spirit' which still existed, so people just got on with it.
I wonder what the people of Wraysbury are thinking about the big state, high tax, good services solution.
A leader of the 100 volunteers who have been rustled up over night in stricken Wraysbury has just monstered Hammond in front of the cameras.
No army, no environment agency, 8 police officers despite repeated and desperate pleas.
The message is clear. Keep your money in your pockets and do it yourselves.
Yet in an election which couldn't have been designed better for UKIP's purposes, where the turnout is likely to be only around half that of a general election, we're asked to believe that their *share* will only be a little higher than current GE VI - never mind their overall vote.
In 2009, UKIP polled about 2.5m votes, equating to 16.6%. The following year in the GE, those figures dropped to less than 1m, or about 3%.
What current polls suggest is that between well over 3m voters - maybe as many as 5m - are considering UKIP for a general election, and that these are quite committed voters (though whether their alliegance is committed is another question). It seems to me extraordinary that polls for a *European* election indicate fewer UKIP voters than for a notional simultaneous GE.
If UKIP is still polling mid-teens in GE VI, I'd be very surprised if they take less than 25% in the EP elections.
Making Farage Commissioner is risky for Dave, the tory strategy is to make Farage and UKIP appear to be the loud mouth at the pub, this elevates UKIP and Farage
Farage accepting an offer from Dave maybe the biggest mistake since Emperor Valerian decided to meet Shapur I to discuss a peace treaty.
(For those who don't know, Valerian went to meet Shapur under a truce to discuss a peace treaty, and Shapur violated the truce, and took Valerian prisoner, and Valerian literally became a human foot stool for the rest of his life)
Mr. Me, perhaps I should write a political satire.
The Marvellous Misadventures of the Mendacious Miliband.
Or: The Cretinous Calamity of Clegg and Cameron (as your taste prefers).
I do have a vague notion of mocking democracy in one of Sir Edric's books. The way it rewards men most skilled at deceptive persuasiveness, and how it purports to allow anyone to rise to the top, but actually they're all a class apart. Or even the way that voters are bribed with their own money.
http://www.drobe.co.uk/article.php?id=1781
Responsible for sparking many people's interest, including mine, in computers in the early 80s...
Maybe they should throw it all out and restructure all Britain's of local government on a watershed basis.
It could have been worse (without the excellent activities of central government...) but could perhaps have been better. For example, some might say that concreting large amounts of land which previously absorbed water slowly; reducing tree cover; building on flood plain and walling in sections of river so it flows through faster - those are all reasons that this biblical rainfall has caused the flooding of more homes than could otherwise have been the case. Questioning whether past decisions were wise and trying to make sure smarter decisions are made in future isn't necessarily a blame culture...
,,,on the other hand, buying a new house on a field that's been underwater every decade or two, then bleating because the army aren't sent to build a wall round it, that probably is a bit embarrassing....
1) It requires two reversals.
2) It will be slow.
3) It misses out some of the major population centres in South Devon - for instance Torquay.
Besides, the sea wall is there not just for the railway, but to also protect Dawlish from flooding. That bit will need to be there until Lord Smith decides that managed retreat is necessary (boo hiss!)
Reopen the Okehampton line on its own basis. If the Dawlish seawall does have to be abandoned (and Dawlish as well), then a new alighnment would be needed that can also be electrified, something like the GWR's 1930s plans (they actually started construction just before WWII).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dawlish_Avoiding_Line
I'd love to be able to find the relevant parliamentary bills.
All IMHO and IANAE. ;-)
Out of interest, as something of an expert on these matters, what's your view on Network Rail's pronouncement in favour of the Okehampton-Tavistock-Plymouth route rather than the Teign Valley or Dawlish Avoiding solutions?
edit- I see Mr Jessop has commented on it as I wrote this, and noted the Plymouth double-reversing problem which I was wondering about too.
http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2014/02/10/emergency-thames-flood-barrier-installed-at-behest-of-david-cameron/&h=QAQEP0QH4&enc=AZMPwC-FDWjRtkeu6GA5XMqlihJLMQEFMJqnSL6Zf75X80U_zi4DSBe8BKsaJl7KI3KPPfWI9QllwibqkXymj_97X8CDcQwk4PzoYRJxfc2blLL8Qq3ZGQLBnsQXEIV-DGLRWCswqCULAtqsf6xs2okx&s=1
That said, I was at the count for Mid-Sussex in 2010 and there was a point where it looked like Soames might have lost. In fact he cantered home with a 7k majority over his Lib Dem challenger, but for an hour two there were some very worried faces scurrying about the hall including that of the man himself. Now, the UKIP vote was but 2.5% and Soames undoubtedly has a personal vote, he is a popular and well-liked MP (we softy-southerners like to tug our forelocks to a toff), which I would guess is worth 10%. If the UKIP vote goes up to the levels polls are suggesting and Soames stands down (he will be 67 and his health, I think, is none too good), then the only thing that might save the seat for the Conservatives is the collapse of the Lib Dems.
Be that as it may Cameron doesn't just need to hold seats he needs to win some new ones and I just don't see that happening in the South East.
This is a crisis averted by at least 99%.
This does leave an interesting question of whether there could be more people on the ground to help the relatively small number of people who have still been affected. Some of them obviously feel abandoned to one extent or another.
This is flooding first world style. I much prefer it to the flooding problems you have in countries without our flood defence infrastructure and emergency services.
According to Kellners figures
Conservatives are getting 9.5% of their votes from this source
Labour 12.2%
LD 8.3%
UKIP 9%
Maybe he will believe it now someone else has said it
Maybe in the areas that UKIp are going to do well in they get more support than other parties from 2010 DNVs, but that's just speculation from me
What we have is a state that claims to be able to cope with all kinds of stuff on the cheap, and trusts the make-do soldier-on mentality to put up with rough edges and gaps. It's neither fish nor fowl.
And only 5000 houses in two months flooded - hysterical overreaction by the media. That hurricane in the Philippines managed to kill 10,000 people in one night
"More than 5,000 properties have been flooded in the last two months after the "most exceptional period of rainfall" to hit parts of England and Wales for nearly 250 years."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26131515
Rubbish! We had essentially the same county boundaries for a thousand years (until that fool Heath stuck his oar in) and they worked pretty damn well, and in many cases still do. Many of the problems have come about because supposedly clever bureaucrats have meddled with things they don't understand and the Civil Service are always trying to claw more power to the centre.
If these polls turn out to be woefully out, what kind of inquiry can we expect? At any rate, the implication will be that the public won't believe any of the polling companies in the run up to 2015, and that will act against the impact of the traditional FPTP system to some extent.
Unfortunately, budget cuts led the Environment Agency in 2011 to merge its Thames region (fairly obviously watershed-based) with the Southern region (South Coast rivers), taking us further away from that ideal. Perhaps those who control the purse-strings are now regretting that decision.
I am told by a local Councillor that when they sold the stations on the Tavistock line as houses post-Beeching they put buyback clauses in the deeds in each case.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25901814
Keep the ukip weather references going, stoke that fire!
But is this really the wettest winter for centuries, or is that Daily Express-speak? I am puzzled by this as Met Office comments and anomaly maps for Nov, Dec and Jan (admittedly not February yet) seem to show that we have had a rather less exceptional winter, certainly for Somerset. Which offers a rather different interpretation from the government's.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/Early-January-Stats
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/01/17/flooding-in-the-somerset-levels-a-case-study/
In fact I've just come across this market being offered by Paddy Power for which the link is as follows:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=303813
EU Commission vice president Viviane Reding speaking in London:
“The most powerful parliament in Europe is the European Parliament. Seventy per cent of laws in this country are co-decided there. There will be no repatriation of EU powers.”
http://order-order.com
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10629258/European-Union-migrants-work-harder-than-Britons-says-Viviane-Reding.html
Yes, the only pub in London to sell wonderful Timothy Taylor beers on draught.
French town worried it has a cat serial killer.
http://www.lamontagne.fr/auvergne/actualite/2014/02/11/allier-y-a-t-il-un-serial-killer-de-chats-dans-le-quartier_1868755.html
On the substantive point, I'd say it was the opposite: what the Conservatives need is a Lib Dem revival at Labour's expense. That won't happen with Clegg in the leadership and probably won't happen at all but to illustrate the point, take 8% off Labour's share and give it to the Lib Dems.
Still no joy from Ladbrokes.
Well its easy for those who want UKIP to fail to dismiss their success in 2009 as the result of the expenses scandal but as this paper explains their support is based on larger considerations and cannot be dismissed so lazily.
We show that Euroscepticism is the biggest explanatory factor but that UKIP voters are also concerned about immigration and show dissatisfaction with and a lack of trust in the political system.Our findings add credence to the argument that views on European integration matter invoters’ decisions at European elections and we show how the balance of attitudinal
explanations of UKIP support makes its voters distinct from those voting for far right parties.
https://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/politics/documents/centre-right/UKIPvoteworkingpaper-1.pdf
Given the prominence of the EU and the Euro crisis, the greatly increased concern about immigration and even IPSA's foolish recommendation to offer MPs an 11% pay rise there is nothing to indicate that UKIP support hasn't grown significantly.
Not only that but whilst its true that the local elections this time tend to be in more Labour areas the turnout at those local elections last time they were held in isolation were 36%. That is pretty much the same turnout at the Euro elections (34% turnout at the 2009 Euros) We can all speculate about the make-up of that vote and how it might differ given the differences in the local elections but the reality is this is not a scenario like the general election where the normal May election turnout is flooded with general election voters. Chances are that the impact of the differing type of local election will be small.
Furthermore it is not as if UKIP have not done relatively well in by elections in some of those Labour constituencies whose voters will be heading out to vote in local elections in May.
Beyond that it should be remembered that ICM do not have the same reputation for predicting Euro elections as they do general elections. The average UKIP figure from their last Euro excursion was on average 7 points below what they polled with Labour and Libdems overestimated by a similar amount and the Tories over-estimated by a lesser event.
If such a variance was experienced again Labour and UKIP would be neck and neck. Again one can question whether UKIP can increase their vote similarly to 2009 and perhaps they cannot but remember this in April 2013 ICM had UKIP on 9%. Less than a month later they polled a national equivalent vote share of 22%.
That said it was always a considerable task for UKIP to win given the change in the national political landscape since the election but one which is perfectly achievable.
"... he [Cameron] hasn't really a feel for what flies outside the Home counties..."
I think you missed one of the points I was trying to make, Mr. Brooke. Cameron doesn't have a feel for what flies inside the Home Counties, either. For all our jesting I don't actually believe that there is much real difference between the attitudes, values and beliefs of the people of Sussex and the people of Warwickshire or, indeed, Yorkshire or Lancashire (Liverpool excepted) or any other two counties one might care to name. Cameron understands his social class and hasn't a clue about the rest and what's worse, I don't think he cares, except to find out what he is supposed to say to get himself (re)elected.
However, in that he is not alone. Miliband seems to be the same, if not worse and, Clegg doesn't seem to understand the English at all.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending#As_a_percentage_of_GDP
Though I'm not sure what you mean by your point about high spending economies not having effectiveness problems. The Cubas, Bosnias, Belgiums and Italys of this world all have poor delivery. You might get the odd one like Finland that does it well, but you also get them among the low tax countries like Switzerland or Singapore.
(1) Phillip Hammond confronted by angry tired volunteer, asked what she needed from him, put her mind at rest that help was on the way then went off to help; big plus;
(2) Cameron hiding in Somerset for now, needs to get to the Thames this afternoon to recover some credibility but did say he didn't want to get in the way; small minus so far;
(3) Little Ed Miliband arriving uninvited to war room to politicise the situation, wasn't welcomed, got in the the way, looks as useful as a wet lettuce; no idea what to do or how to behave, added nothing; massive minus;
(4) Charlotte Hawkins - wow, looked gorgeous, did a great job talking to locals, no agenda, massive plus;
(5) Kay Burley should be sacked. Still as awful as ever, no brains, no compassion, unable to relate to normal people, still stuck up Milibands arse.
I noticed she also said this “British sovereignty is mainly in their head because they've signed the EU treaty and most business is in Europe."
Except most business is not in Europe. As with the three million jobs crap, hat's another lie Eurocrats have plucked from out of their rear ends.
“It is ideology and feelings in the British debate, not facts.”
Completely true: it's just a shame eurocrats like Reding and Clegg keep on bringing falsehoods to the debate. Without them we could appreciate the situation far more honestly.
Anyway, the data is in the very link I posted. We're the 16th higher country in the world for tax intake. By any measure you like, we are a high tax, high spending country. And what do we have to show for it, over countries like New Zealand or Canada?
So in the interests of his education it's probably best not to tell him that you are a retired major living in Woking who enjoys nothing more than a couple of rounds of golf before a stiff G&T of a Saturday.
Because there are no other Kippers, are there? It was a mistake of Cam to get local. That's for his lieutenants. One shot of him (somewhere) in a high-vis jacket and he's done. Then plenty of shots of him in planning meetings.
Otherwise he's always not going to be somewhere he "should" be.
Misfit Miliband? and Lifted (arrested) Lucas?
Phillip Hammond was brilliant; he behaved exactly how a politician should behave when put under intense pressure on live tv, and seems a natural leader. This was priceless for the Tories - if only it could have been Cameron on the spot. Little Ed was clearly out of his depth and the reaction of people asked about his visit was priceless. Equally priceless in view of little Ed getting out and about during an election campaign.
I am a massive Cameron fan, but just lately all the good work has been coming from Osborne; Cameron needs to step up and show some leadership like Hammond did.
Mike Smithson has made it clear, don't accuse new posters of being old posters, directly or indirectly.
Some of you have been warned about this before.
If anyone doesn't adhere to this from now on, your right to instantly post comments on here will be revoked.
Way off-topic, I've found a map of the 1930s Dawlish diversion planned by the GWR and plotted the routes out on a modern 1:25,000 OS map. It still looks doable, but some major tunnelling and/or cutting would be needed, especially as it crosses Holcombe Moor at its 600-foot point!
I should really get back to work, but the combination of maps, engineering and railways is just catnip to me ...
But they also say the kipper vote in GE VI polls is down to the disenfranchised feeling that voters have, NOTA etc , a protest vote
It can't be both can it?
Seems so.
A party has got to start somewhere and the EU and immigration are as good as any. Neither do I think it necessary to have an insta-manifesto (which is just as well as neither does NFarage). Just some interest and newsworthyness and you have both of those.
But (there had to be one) - you are in an interesting not to say challenging demographic situation. Despite not being all colonels there are nevertheless certainly a lot of disaffected Tories of an older generation who are the "hell-in-a-handbasket" types rather than Brave New World types. For these there will be driftback.
I might also say that you are to a certain extent untypical in as a young person having such strong political views. By far the majority (wholly speculative on my part) of younger people are more cosmopolitan in their outlook not to say indifferent to those broad brush national issues.
Then there are the issues you fight on. You might find yourselves with some pretty strange bedfellows if you restrict them to immigration and the EU. So you will need to have a view on the NHS, tax (flat?), the environment, education.
It is peoples' (my) perception that you are a long way from that and don't show any inclination to change this. Hence you can be mistaken for a NOTA party. Or a single issue pressure group cum party. Both of those are not good for longevity.
So I wish UKIP luck (interlude: oh look there's Cam in a high-vis vest on the TV) and I am not asking the world from you tomorrow morning, but right now you need to define what it is you will be for such powerful aspirations as you have. This is where you are failing IMO.
(Edited out your first para so it would fit in)
I am a massive Cameron fan, but just lately all the good work has been coming from Osborne; Cameron needs to step up and show some leadership like Hammond did.
I'm not a Cameron fan at all. He's done severe long-term damage to the Tory Party in my book and has split the centre right to boot. He's put back the cause of the centre right by a decade or more but I would agree Osborne has done himself no harm recently and Hammond has again demonstrated he has sufficient political nouse to make himself a contender for Cameron's replacement.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14007888
http://t.co/4FH2Oryd8I
http://t.co/kgpj75T0LY
http://t.co/XRvaZJDnTL
I've left Belgium and France as debatable since they seem to me from my visits to work fairly well, despite well-known political and other problems, but I might be wrong.
It does, of course, partly depend on size of GDP per head (Switzerland would do well and Burma poorly at any plausible level of taxation). But I'd stick to my basic thesis, that we run an ambitious-scale government network combined with penny-pinching. It gets us through most of the time, but it's vulerable to things like floods and (in other years) very cold winters.
Switzerland = plucky Serbia?
He mocks me, in a way that implies i am lying, for having mates that are electricians and air con engineers
The reality is he recovered 100 seats almost certainly to throw most of them away n 2015 due to his interim actions and rather than reassure the trust people put in him in 2010 all he has done is confirm the doubts raised by those who opposed him pre 2010. I was a party member and voted Tory in 2010. I cannot envisage a scenario in the foreseeable future where I will vote Tory again. In fact I think the brand is irrevocably broken and the party as divided and dysfunctional as it has ever been. Its not fit for purpose as political party anymore.
Can you provide any statistical evidence for its existence?