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Can anything shift the polls for Sunak? – politicalbetting.com
Can anything shift the polls for Sunak? – politicalbetting.com
Per David Cowling. July poll averages compared to start of yearLab 47% (nc)Con 27% (+1)Lib Dem 10% (+1)Greens 4% (-1)Other 12% (-1)Not much change there then! pic.twitter.com/hUEAkM6msV
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And no.
...and next, he's off on a holiday to California, just like everyone does at this time of cost of living crisis year.
I assume this is what you were referring to: 'New snowfall across California today, with Hagan'S Meadow receiving up to 10” of new snowfall, raising snowpack levels up to 9”.'
source: https://snoflo.org/snow/report/california/
Voters didn't begrudge Blair his Tuscan and Caribbean holidays as the economy was still growing strongly and inflation was low, however when the economy is less good voters don't like PMs in the sun. Callaghan's 'crisis what crisis' remark after returning from holiday in Guadeloupe wasn't rewarded by the voters in 1979 given the high inflation and strikes at the time
For nothing now can ever come to any good with this Conservative administration.
Not much will change in the polling until the GE is called and focuses minds. Until then we have a lame duck government despite its majority, and a country fraying at the edges, with the majority of public services giving off a stench of failure.
It is like the tail end of John Major's government, only with a worse economy.
Is this something normal or is it an El Nino effect?
Exactly the same here. However, I think a PB poster (sorry, can’t locate it now) from a thread earlier in week hit the nail on the head by saying that Sunak comes over as being ‘whiny’. Never a good sound for a leader.
I don't know what sort of Event, but it would have to be a jolly big one. And probably not the one referenced in the Mitchell and Webb "Remain Indoors" sketches.
But if Rishi goes into the election having to persuade people, it's just not going to work, unless he is using this holiday to have a Complete Personality Transplant operation.
My car weighs approximately 1220 kg. It has done just under 100k miles since I bought it new. I should pass the 100k mark this year.
So looking at the car weight per mile that is about 82 miles per kg.
But most of the time I have passengers in the vehicle. 2, 3 and sometimes 4. So let's estimate 250k total passenger miles travelled. That'd mean 205 passenger miles per kg of car weight. And that's disregarding the shopping etc transported too.
My bike weighs about 10kg and I won't have done more than double digit miles in it. And I've never carried any passengers on my bike.
Sunak holidaying in his Santa Monica house really does add to the impression of the super rich lifestyle of a Non-Dom spouse.
1992 was 18 years into Tory government too, 2024 will be only 14 years into Tory government ie closer to the 13 years of 1992 when Major beat Kinnock against the odds when most polls had Labour ahead
(*Because no way is debt going to reduce in the lifetime of this parliament.)
With that said... my business is in Arizona, and there it is HOT, HOT, HOT.
The billions of profit that HMRC gets from taxes on drivers make us the golden geese. Hopefully with the switchover from fuel to electricity this will end and you can start paying your share, but I don't expect it and won't hold my breath.
Debt to GDP falling is the target.
Which is what you should expect given the size of the state, and the differences in elevation: "Death Valley's Badwater Basin is the point of lowest elevation in North America, at 282 feet (86 m) below sea level.[1] It is 84.6 miles (136.2 km) east-southeast of Mount Whitney — the highest point in the contiguous United States, with an elevation of 14,505 feet (4,421 m)."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_Valley
As for the snow pack, it is at 100 percent of normal for this time of year. Last winter brought enough snow to break the years-long drought, at least temporarily, much to the relief of most in California.
(BTW, it isn't unusual for San Francisco to have lower temperatures than Seattle, even though the first is about 800 miles south of the second.)
I'm not at all grateful that you insist on taking up so much space that it chokes the life out of the rest of us, physically and in terms of the air we breathe. Your demand for more roads more roads more roads is just insane.
In contrast, for more than 9 months now Labour's lead hasn't dipped below 10%.
The election is decided by drivers. Starmer isn't stupid enough to be anti-driver.
Major on his soapbox was quite formidable. That's how he won 1992. Sunak has none of that.
The poisoned dwarf needs to stfu about his now tiresome list . The public are bored to death of hearing about it .
-Twain
It's no wonder the sellers of sweatshirts on the Golden Gate Bridge do such good business
The air I breathe is clean. The NOX and PM2.5 where I live and drive is completely healthy. And as we transition to electric vehicles they don't pollute the air and the myth they do is a lie spread by climate change denialists.
The demand for roads, roads, roads is no more insane than the demand for houses, houses, houses. We've had population growth - a growing population needs more roads and more housing. We haven't had enough built of either.
What do we conclude from that? As with you figures, I'd suggest: "nothing".
Also, why are you dividing miles by mass? If anything, I'd multiply them for some indication of impact (wear on roads for example, indication of energy expended).
I hadn't caught a bus since before Covid, and now twice in a week.
Have been to the pub, so hopefully my bladder will hold out!
Will pay another visit to the facilities before my "peasant wagon" is due.
A nice mixture of threat and sadness in the bus station at this time of day. This is the real Red Wall. Tories haven't got a clue.
update: I see RCS got there first
Debt to GDP is the rational level to look at. Just like with house prices its price to income ratios that matter and people who overexpose themselves to debt are in trouble when the interest rate changes.
The boring result seems the most likely (broadly Labour winning by a similar or slightly smaller % margin than the current SNP margin), but there is a non-zero chance of some Scottish reaction against London Labour, and the earlier quoted 10/1 on the SNP seems modest value to me.
The front page stories include some stupid stories about Lizzo fat shaming, some soap star social media shaming a baker, BBC sport presenter barbie shaming a cricketer, something about Beyonce and a story about Uno.
I didn't realise I had logged on to TMZ or the Sun.
How much do you want to cut funding to the NHS to replace the exorbitant taxes being levied on drivers?
Hopefully we can have a more neutral tax system in the future. Fuel duty should be replaced with an electricity tax which taxes all fuel equally, not just drivers fuel. Drivers of the future would still be getting taxed when they fill their vehicles, but they won't be the only ones taxed.
[Citation needed] 🤣
Perhaps you should add a 1 ton lead weight to the boot to make it more efficient?
watched, something on these lines:
Q: what would you be doing if you weren't an MP?
A: Living in California
100k miles / 1220kg = 82 miles travelled per kg.
100k miles / 2220kg = 45 miles travelled per kg.
Since miles are the positive measure and more miles per kg is more efficient, then having a bigger divisor lowers efficiency, it doesn't boost it. That's basic mathematics.
Increasing the divisor lowers the value of what you're measuring, so of course weight is a divisor.
Multiplying would be cheating.
"...Third, we will make sure our national debt is falling so that we can secure the future of public services..."
But let's assume you're right, it makes sense after all. He has no chance of achieving that promise before a GE, does he?
The size. The definition.
Only matched by posties.
Its why Blair was always keen to keep drivers on board and so will Starmer be. Quite rightly too.
Besides energy is not "resources" which was your original claim. Especially going forwards where cars are going to be charged via the wind, and in particular surplus wind generated overnight while the rest of our energy demands are low.
And the road space issue still remains.
'Third, we will make sure our national debt is falling as a proportion of GDP so that we can secure the future of public services.'
He still would have failed though.
Government building more charging infrastructure, councils giving free parking for EVs, expanding rather than shrinking bus networks etc. So much better to use carrot than stick.
Debt to GDP is the entirely normal and only rational measure of public sector debt. There's no need to say "to GDP" since it goes without saying.
£3 tn debt to £1 tn GDP is truly awful
£3 tn debt to £3 tn GDP is very bad
£3 tn debt to £30 tn GDP would be unprecedentedly low debt.
Debt alone means nothing without looking at GDP, so anyone rational always looks at debt to GDP on national levels.
-Raise the VAT threshold on small businesses to £200,000
-Remove VAT on domestic fuel
These are both exceedingly unlikely sadly, because they can't be done legally in Northern Ireland.
-Approve tidal energy in Wales and get his name and face all over it in-front of some diggers 'new green power era for Wales' etc.
-Delay ban on new petrols and diesels to the new EU date of 2035
-Start flying lots of lots of boat people to Rwanda
-Ditch HS2 once and for all with a workable legacy plan that makes the whole thing done so far not quite such a collossal waste of time and money.
-A proper housing bill, sorting out actual issues like legacy EU laws on nutrient neutrality: https://www.endsreport.com/article/1754796/100000-homes-limbo-due-nutrient-neutrality-advice-housebuilders-claim, and land-banking by big developers, to actually get houses built in serious numbers - not just Michael Gove farting around re-announcing something about developing in urban areas. Sunak pictured in a hard-hat in a digger etc.
All these things would shift the polls. There are not a good programme for Government, because good Government involves a massive amount of things that would not shift the polls in the short term, but these would.
And it goes without saying that a new leader would sell these new policies a lot better than Sunak.