Trump is acting like a mad gang boss with a personal vendetta and Americans are crazy enough to re-elect him. The Vox pops from Trump rallies are so full of delusional conspiracy stuff that 4 more years of Trump are a nightmare that looks likely to happen.
I don't bet much on American politics because it is too bonkers to predict. It would be fun if it didn't matter, but it does.
Yep, to unite the two threads on here currently - Putin knows he just has to wait for a Trump presidential election victory and the entire picture changes. And Trump has a great chance to win. Biden is a decent to good president, he will be an utterly disastrous candidate.
All those saying they're as bad as each other will never admit how important Biden has been to helping Ukraine fend off Putin. And they’ll blame France and Germany when Trump scales US involvement back.
But the blame game won’t change the facts on the ground. Without substantial and continued US aid, Ukraine will be on the back foot very quickly. That will have massive implications for all of us, while emboldening China in East Asia generally and with regards to Taiwan specifically.
Morning SO
just noticed from yesterday, have you moved to Devon permanently or are you just on hols ?
Trump is acting like a mad gang boss with a personal vendetta and Americans are crazy enough to re-elect him. The Vox pops from Trump rallies are so full of delusional conspiracy stuff that 4 more years of Trump are a nightmare that looks likely to happen.
I don't bet much on American politics because it is too bonkers to predict. It would be fun if it didn't matter, but it does.
Yep, to unite the two threads on here currently - Putin knows he just has to wait for a Trump presidential election victory and the entire picture changes. And Trump has a great chance to win. Biden is a decent to good president, he will be an utterly disastrous candidate.
All those saying they're as bad as each other will never admit how important Biden has been to helping Ukraine fend off Putin. And they’ll blame France and Germany when Trump scales US involvement back.
But the blame game won’t change the facts on the ground. Without substantial and continued US aid, Ukraine will be on the back foot very quickly. That will have massive implications for all of us, while emboldening China in East Asia generally and with regards to Taiwan specifically.
Yes. And I fear people who think that Trump will somehow backtrack and support Ukraine are not seeing things reasonably. Trump will pull the plug on Ukraine's aid from the US, and threaten Europe with NATO cuts unless they do the same. That will force Ukraine to the negotiating table at terms favourable to Russia, and Trump will be able to call himself a peacemaker, unlike the warmonger Biden.
I’ve got a horrible feeling Russia is slowly turning this war around
It is absorbing Ukraine’s attacks. Which essentially go nowhere. It counter attacks in the north and east. There is absolutely no sign of Russia “running out of missiles and drones” - it sent dozens last night and this morning. It is obviously getting new supplies
It is strangling Ukraine’s economy by bombarding the Black Sea coast. It is grinding down the Ukrainian army which has much more limited manpower than Russia
I don’t want to be pessimistic. I want Ukraine to win. But right now in Ukraine it *feels* bad
You in UFO territory. They seem to be heading for Crimea from what I read, 20 km or so and they hit the coast and the Russians in south and Crimea are toast. They are slowly advancing in north as well, Russia are f**ked long term regardless.
Russia is storing up long term horrors. But the rest of your comment is delusional
Trump is acting like a mad gang boss with a personal vendetta and Americans are crazy enough to re-elect him. The Vox pops from Trump rallies are so full of delusional conspiracy stuff that 4 more years of Trump are a nightmare that looks likely to happen.
I don't bet much on American politics because it is too bonkers to predict. It would be fun if it didn't matter, but it does.
Yep, to unite the two threads on here currently - Putin knows he just has to wait for a Trump presidential election victory and the entire picture changes. And Trump has a great chance to win. Biden is a decent to good president, he will be an utterly disastrous candidate.
All those saying they're as bad as each other will never admit how important Biden has been to helping Ukraine fend off Putin. And they’ll blame France and Germany when Trump scales US involvement back.
But the blame game won’t change the facts on the ground. Without substantial and continued US aid, Ukraine will be on the back foot very quickly. That will have massive implications for all of us, while emboldening China in East Asia generally and with regards to Taiwan specifically.
Yes. And I fear people who think that Trump will somehow backtrack and support Ukraine are not seeing things reasonably. Trump will pull the plug on Ukraine's aid from the US, and threaten Europe with NATO cuts unless they do the same. That will force Ukraine to the negotiating table at terms favourable to Russia, and Trump will be able to call himself a peacemaker, unlike the warmonger Biden.
As a Watergate historian, it’s worth noting that nothing Nixon did—and he had plenty of crimes and conspiracies, involving more than 60 people criminally charged—approached the scale and severity of Trump’s assault on American democracy. https://twitter.com/vermontgmg/status/1686531761352609792?s=20
Good point. Viewed at this remove, Nixon's crimes appear almost quaint in comparison
The Democrats have opened Pandoras box and this could go anywhere . THe US is screwed
"Lock her up" was shouted by who, again?
And, it's the Democrats fault that Donald Trump allegedly committed crimes?
You can call a "pox on both your houses" with some degree of accuracy. But to point to the Dems and say the ball is entirely in your court - as you are doing - is willfully blind.
Now, I really, really hate the idea that governments use their political power to pursue political opponents. (Like Trump and the IRS vs Comey, for example.) But at the same time, should your political position shield you from all legal liability?
What of the upcoming tax/wirefraud case in NY? Trump valued properties at one price for the tax authorities and another for mortgages. And this wasn't a 10% difference, it was a multiple. People go to jail for that kind of thing all the time. Should he not be prosecuted, solely because he was President?
What is it about Trump that make otherwise sensible people lose their marbles ?
Hounding Trump will achieve precisely nothing except to make him more popular with his supporters and make diviisions in US society deeper.
As for the legal guff, Hilary is still walking free and has never been near a court nd I dont think anyome seriously expects the Biden\Hunter mess to be investigated before an election.
It must have escaped your notice that Congress have been doing just that - and appear to have turned up nothing at all that implicates the President.
His son has been charged with crimes - having faced more Congressional investigation than any private citizen in the last couple of decades -and is currently having his plea deal reviewed by a Republican appointed judge. Unlike various members of Trump's family, he's never held any position in the administration.
Your both sides-ism is feeble.
It really should be feeble but its actually powerful enough that it may play a part in the end of US democracy. It gives "respectable" Republicans enough cover to hold their noses and vote for a quite mad and dangerous President.
Some, sure. I note that it's the Democrats that are calling for the Congressional report to be published. The Republicans seem less enthusiastic, as the lack of evidence might detract from their rhetoric.
Trump seems to get indicted all the time. This seems a weak example of the breed, because it deals with events that have already taken place in public, and which everyone has their own opinion on. A court verdict calling Trump a conspirator (or whatever) is not going to move anyone's opinion on this, or Trump, at all.
Trump seems to get indicted all the time. This seems a weak example of the breed, because it deals with events that have already taken place in public, and which everyone has their own opinion on. A court verdict calling Trump a conspirator (or whatever) is not going to move anyone's opinion on this, or Trump, at all.
Trump is acting like a mad gang boss with a personal vendetta and Americans are crazy enough to re-elect him. The Vox pops from Trump rallies are so full of delusional conspiracy stuff that 4 more years of Trump are a nightmare that looks likely to happen.
I don't bet much on American politics because it is too bonkers to predict. It would be fun if it didn't matter, but it does.
Yep, to unite the two threads on here currently - Putin knows he just has to wait for a Trump presidential election victory and the entire picture changes. And Trump has a great chance to win. Biden is a decent to good president, he will be an utterly disastrous candidate.
All those saying they're as bad as each other will never admit how important Biden has been to helping Ukraine fend off Putin. And they’ll blame France and Germany when Trump scales US involvement back.
But the blame game won’t change the facts on the ground. Without substantial and continued US aid, Ukraine will be on the back foot very quickly. That will have massive implications for all of us, while emboldening China in East Asia generally and with regards to Taiwan specifically.
Morning SO
just noticed from yesterday, have you moved to Devon permanently or are you just on hols ?
Greetings AB. Semi-retired now and living the good life in Sidmouth, where my wife and I have lowered the average age considerably! Back in Leamington quite a bit, though, to see the kids. Hope all is well with you!
Trump seems to get indicted all the time. This seems a weak example of the breed, because it deals with events that have already taken place in public, and which everyone has their own opinion on. A court verdict calling Trump a conspirator (or whatever) is not going to move anyone's opinion on this, or Trump, at all.
It might move him to jail.
From where, as I understand it, he can still run for President.
Trump is acting like a mad gang boss with a personal vendetta and Americans are crazy enough to re-elect him. The Vox pops from Trump rallies are so full of delusional conspiracy stuff that 4 more years of Trump are a nightmare that looks likely to happen.
I don't bet much on American politics because it is too bonkers to predict. It would be fun if it didn't matter, but it does.
Yep, to unite the two threads on here currently - Putin knows he just has to wait for a Trump presidential election victory and the entire picture changes. And Trump has a great chance to win. Biden is a decent to good president, he will be an utterly disastrous candidate.
All those saying they're as bad as each other will never admit how important Biden has been to helping Ukraine fend off Putin. And they’ll blame France and Germany when Trump scales US involvement back.
But the blame game won’t change the facts on the ground. Without substantial and continued US aid, Ukraine will be on the back foot very quickly. That will have massive implications for all of us, while emboldening China in East Asia generally and with regards to Taiwan specifically.
Morning SO
just noticed from yesterday, have you moved to Devon permanently or are you just on hols ?
Greetings AB. Semi-retired now and living the good life in Sidmouth, where my wife and I have lowered the average age considerably! Back in Leamington quite a bit, though, to see the kids. Hope all is well with you!
Cheers SO, hope all goes well for you, youre in a nice part of the world.
The countries that back Ukraine are unlikely to support an endless war.
Everyone has their limit, of course, but I think many people in Western Europe underestimate the determination in Eastern Europe to defeat Russia now - to avoid having to do so later.
Trump seems to get indicted all the time. This seems a weak example of the breed, because it deals with events that have already taken place in public, and which everyone has their own opinion on. A court verdict calling Trump a conspirator (or whatever) is not going to move anyone's opinion on this, or Trump, at all.
Oooh, excellent, that would be the same Andrew Neil when editor of The Sunday Times, said and published articles that said HIV/AIDS only impacts the gays and doesn't impact heterosexuals.
He was a dinosaur then and still a dinosaur now.
I protest. Unfair, grossly so, to the poor dinosaurs.
Trump is acting like a mad gang boss with a personal vendetta and Americans are crazy enough to re-elect him. The Vox pops from Trump rallies are so full of delusional conspiracy stuff that 4 more years of Trump are a nightmare that looks likely to happen.
I don't bet much on American politics because it is too bonkers to predict. It would be fun if it didn't matter, but it does.
Yep, to unite the two threads on here currently - Putin knows he just has to wait for a Trump presidential election victory and the entire picture changes. And Trump has a great chance to win. Biden is a decent to good president, he will be an utterly disastrous candidate.
All those saying they're as bad as each other will never admit how important Biden has been to helping Ukraine fend off Putin. And they’ll blame France and Germany when Trump scales US involvement back.
But the blame game won’t change the facts on the ground. Without substantial and continued US aid, Ukraine will be on the back foot very quickly. That will have massive implications for all of us, while emboldening China in East Asia generally and with regards to Taiwan specifically.
Morning SO
just noticed from yesterday, have you moved to Devon permanently or are you just on hols ?
Greetings AB. Semi-retired now and living the good life in Sidmouth, where my wife and I have lowered the average age considerably! Back in Leamington quite a bit, though, to see the kids. Hope all is well with you!
Trump seems to get indicted all the time. This seems a weak example of the breed, because it deals with events that have already taken place in public, and which everyone has their own opinion on. A court verdict calling Trump a conspirator (or whatever) is not going to move anyone's opinion on this, or Trump, at all.
It might move him to jail.
From where, as I understand it, he can still run for President.
Depends on whether losing voting rights might make him ineligible to run, and that would in turn depend on where and what he was locked up for, if he is.
His supporters will (and are) already dismissing it as politically motivated bulls**t, designed to cover for the corrupt Biden family, and because they know he’s the greatest ever President who will win again, which is why the Establishment wants to get him of the ballot.
Whether that sentiment resonates with the wider US electorate, on the other hand, is a question best left to the reader.
It won't. It will soon dawn on all but his deluded base that he can't be elected president again, that it's simply not tenable. The polls will start to reflect this and then ... well we'll see.
His supporters will (and are) already dismissing it as politically motivated bulls**t, designed to cover for the corrupt Biden family, and because they know he’s the greatest ever President who will win again, which is why the Establishment wants to get him of the ballot.
Whether that sentiment resonates with the wider US electorate, on the other hand, is a question best left to the reader.
It won't. It will soon dawn on all but his deluded base that he can't be elected president again, that it's simply not tenable. The polls will start to reflect this and then ... well we'll see.
What would be really funny is if he loses in the primaries.
From the NYT. This does not sound like “winning”, from a Ukrainian perspective
“For the last two months, as Ukrainian troops have tried to break through Russian defenses in a broad counteroffensive to seize back occupied terrain in southern Ukraine, their units have run into dense minefields and heavy Russian artillery fire and drone attacks.
“Each mile is a bloody fight as the counteroffensive has progressed painfully slowly, with units coming up against dug-in Russian defenses and taking heavy casualties. Troops spearheading the offensive have breached the first line of defense in areas in recent days, potentially opening the way for a deeper assault.
“Positioned close to the front lines, the stabilization points, temporary medical posts where patients are stabilized for onward evacuation, have been receiving a constant inflow of soldiers wounded in the fighting. The numbers have been “colossal,” said a medic from the center where the three men from the 110th Brigade were treated.”
So where does this go. Stalemate while the west ships in more arms and hope for a breakthrough ? Peace negotiations and some compromise ?
Ideally we would all like a swift Ukrainian win and Russia to replace Putin with someone less malign. That seems increasingly unlikely.
The counter offensive could ultimately work; it is too early to conclude it has failed. If it doesn't then the likely outcome is a negotiated stalemate. I don't believe that the current government in Russia could agree a compromise/peace deal. There are some advantages of a stalemate instead of a 'peace deal' - mainly that Ukraine can maintain its readiness to defend itself, rather than relying on dubious 'assurances' from Russia.
A agreed stalemate seems likely to me. A muddy armistice
@Sandpit is right that the Ukrainians have no desire to cede an inch of territory to the Russians. The trouble is Ukraine is simply running out of soldiers. If the men dying in the trenches are in their 50s - even late 50s - that is BAD
I fear an exhausted Ukraine will be forced to agree a truce over the winter which may then extend for many months or years as both sides regroup. Russia will keep most of what it’s got - Russify it - and count it as a bloody victory
It ain’t pretty. But that’s my guess
And that will lead to the same thing happening in five years, with Ukraine being invaded again under some pathetic excuse. Putin, and people like him in Russia, want Ukraine.
The 'stalemate' argument is *not* an argument for peace, in the medium or long term.
Its not something that anyone wants. It is just a prediction of what will happen if 'beat back Russia' fails. The latter strategy worked for a while but may have now reached its limits.
The countries that back Ukraine are unlikely to support an endless war.
Quite. I desperately want Ukraine to win. But I see what I see
The MoD generally adopts a positive attitude to the Ukrainian cause. Here is its latest map of the front lines. This does not scream “imminent pivotal breakthrough” to me
Of course that blogger upthread might be right and Ukraine is doing much better than this under the radar. Let’s hope so
It's in the nature of many things that there are often incremental changes that are not obvious on the surface, that accumulate over time, until a breaking point is reached, and then dramatic things happen.
You see this with some types of materials. You see it with the finances of individuals, companies and countries. We have seen it with the Russian Army, and I hope we will see it again.
It's impossible for us to know whether the Russians are a few days from breaking, weeks, months, or longer. We would be seeing similar things now in whichever case.
All I would say is that we have seen the Russians realise they are nearing their limit before, and they have retreated - from around Kyiv and the north and from the right bank - and we have seen the Russians surprised and the Ukrainians achieve a breakthrough - as at Kharkiv.
So there is every reason to expect that the Ukrainians can be successful again, and it is far too soon to panic.
Trump seems to get indicted all the time. This seems a weak example of the breed, because it deals with events that have already taken place in public, and which everyone has their own opinion on. A court verdict calling Trump a conspirator (or whatever) is not going to move anyone's opinion on this, or Trump, at all.
His supporters will (and are) already dismissing it as politically motivated bulls**t, designed to cover for the corrupt Biden family, and because they know he’s the greatest ever President who will win again, which is why the Establishment wants to get him of the ballot.
Whether that sentiment resonates with the wider US electorate, on the other hand, is a question best left to the reader.
It won't. It will soon dawn on all but his deluded base that he can't be elected president again, that it's simply not tenable. The polls will start to reflect this and then ... well we'll see.
What would be really funny is if he loses in the primaries.
Can you see him taking that lying down? Could he run as a third party candidate?
As a Watergate historian, it’s worth noting that nothing Nixon did—and he had plenty of crimes and conspiracies, involving more than 60 people criminally charged—approached the scale and severity of Trump’s assault on American democracy. https://twitter.com/vermontgmg/status/1686531761352609792?s=20
Good point. Viewed at this remove, Nixon's crimes appear almost quaint in comparison
The Democrats have opened Pandoras box and this could go anywhere . THe US is screwed
"Lock her up" was shouted by who, again?
And, it's the Democrats fault that Donald Trump allegedly committed crimes?
You can call a "pox on both your houses" with some degree of accuracy. But to point to the Dems and say the ball is entirely in your court - as you are doing - is willfully blind.
Now, I really, really hate the idea that governments use their political power to pursue political opponents. (Like Trump and the IRS vs Comey, for example.) But at the same time, should your political position shield you from all legal liability?
What of the upcoming tax/wirefraud case in NY? Trump valued properties at one price for the tax authorities and another for mortgages. And this wasn't a 10% difference, it was a multiple. People go to jail for that kind of thing all the time. Should he not be prosecuted, solely because he was President?
What is it about Trump that make otherwise sensible people lose their marbles ?
Hounding Trump will achieve precisely nothing except to make him more popular with his supporters and make diviisions in US society deeper.
As for the legal guff, Hilary is still walking free and has never been near a court nd I dont think anyome seriously expects the Biden\Hunter mess to be investigated before an election.
So you're saying laws actually should not apply to him?
That's his attitude, certainly, and that's what's got him into trouble.
Nobody is 'hounding' him, they're enforcing the multiple laws he's deliberately broken for his own gain.
Im saying the laws should apply to everyone and not just one individual. The US justice system is highly partisan and this is using the law to hamper an opponent who it appears cant be beaten by normal means.
That matter alone says what a poor position the Dems have, Worse now that the principle has been established if Trump were to win the election he can quite happily clear out the DoJ, pack it with his place men like Giuliani and lock up who he pleases as the Dems arent exactly choirboys.
And for the record I think that would be a total bag of shit too,
Trump tried to use the justice system to hound his opponents. It didn't work for him because ultimately the law-breaking of say, Hilary Clinton was quite low level. She should not have done what she did, but she was stupid rather than malign.
Her husband was, in case you've forgotten, impeached for his crimes although he wasn't in the end convicted.
Her husbands case I would actually say was the start of this whole sorry saga, The GOP tried to nobble Clinton by foul means and that set off the tit for tat escalation we have seen ever since.
As for Trump using the justice system, well as you say nobody got convicted. But I dont agree with that either , someone somewhere has to put the genie back in the bottle it just wont be either of the two presidential candidates.
Sigh.
The point is he *tried* to use the justice system to nobble his opponents and he failed because what happened wasn't ultimately significant enough to secure an indictment so the lawyers concerned told him 'no.' Had Clinton not handed over her email server, however belatedly and reluctantly, it might have been different. But that was not his call. Just as this is not Biden's. Or anyone in the government.
What's happening now is they *are* indicting him for multiple crimes he has not only committed but is repeatedly doubling down on.
And if you genuinely think January 6th was bad policing, you are profoundly ignorant of what happened. Again, read the indictment. How would 'bad policing,' for example, have led to a crowd gathering at Trump's urging that wanted to lynch the Vice President?
And if you don't think that, well...
No the point is he has been accused of it. He hasnt been convicted of anything,
And he has been accused of it not directly after the event when logically the state would lock up a real and present danger, but just before an election and by a partisan justice system. You draw one conclusion I draw another.
As for the policing issue London regulary gets trashed by people who shout down with the govt but these are riots not coups. And our police despite their critics handle them quite well. And just to wind you up even further J6 wasnt even a decent riot, I grew up in Ulster so I know what a riot looks like there were no petrol bombs, no stones no tear gas. Because all of those thinsg would have required organisation and hard work and Trump is too chaotic .
He has been INDICTED. That is the difference.
As for your last somewhat incoherent and illogical paragraph, put differently you are saying that should something not be exactly like your memories of a riot in Ulster it must not be a riot and therefore can't be a coup.
As a Watergate historian, it’s worth noting that nothing Nixon did—and he had plenty of crimes and conspiracies, involving more than 60 people criminally charged—approached the scale and severity of Trump’s assault on American democracy. https://twitter.com/vermontgmg/status/1686531761352609792?s=20
Good point. Viewed at this remove, Nixon's crimes appear almost quaint in comparison
The Democrats have opened Pandoras box and this could go anywhere . THe US is screwed
"Lock her up" was shouted by who, again?
And, it's the Democrats fault that Donald Trump allegedly committed crimes?
You can call a "pox on both your houses" with some degree of accuracy. But to point to the Dems and say the ball is entirely in your court - as you are doing - is willfully blind.
Now, I really, really hate the idea that governments use their political power to pursue political opponents. (Like Trump and the IRS vs Comey, for example.) But at the same time, should your political position shield you from all legal liability?
What of the upcoming tax/wirefraud case in NY? Trump valued properties at one price for the tax authorities and another for mortgages. And this wasn't a 10% difference, it was a multiple. People go to jail for that kind of thing all the time. Should he not be prosecuted, solely because he was President?
What is it about Trump that make otherwise sensible people lose their marbles ?
I think as one of the two people most affected on here by this phenomenon perhaps you could tell us?
Trump seems to get indicted all the time. This seems a weak example of the breed, because it deals with events that have already taken place in public, and which everyone has their own opinion on. A court verdict calling Trump a conspirator (or whatever) is not going to move anyone's opinion on this, or Trump, at all.
It might move him to jail.
From where, as I understand it, he can still run for President.
So I believe. Can he then pardon himself?
Question though: say he is convicted, put in jail, still wins the election, but cannot attend the inauguration. Does he still become president and thus able to pardon himself?
From the NYT. This does not sound like “winning”, from a Ukrainian perspective
“For the last two months, as Ukrainian troops have tried to break through Russian defenses in a broad counteroffensive to seize back occupied terrain in southern Ukraine, their units have run into dense minefields and heavy Russian artillery fire and drone attacks.
“Each mile is a bloody fight as the counteroffensive has progressed painfully slowly, with units coming up against dug-in Russian defenses and taking heavy casualties. Troops spearheading the offensive have breached the first line of defense in areas in recent days, potentially opening the way for a deeper assault.
“Positioned close to the front lines, the stabilization points, temporary medical posts where patients are stabilized for onward evacuation, have been receiving a constant inflow of soldiers wounded in the fighting. The numbers have been “colossal,” said a medic from the center where the three men from the 110th Brigade were treated.”
So where does this go. Stalemate while the west ships in more arms and hope for a breakthrough ? Peace negotiations and some compromise ?
Ideally we would all like a swift Ukrainian win and Russia to replace Putin with someone less malign. That seems increasingly unlikely.
The counter offensive could ultimately work; it is too early to conclude it has failed. If it doesn't then the likely outcome is a negotiated stalemate. I don't believe that the current government in Russia could agree a compromise/peace deal. There are some advantages of a stalemate instead of a 'peace deal' - mainly that Ukraine can maintain its readiness to defend itself, rather than relying on dubious 'assurances' from Russia.
A agreed stalemate seems likely to me. A muddy armistice
@Sandpit is right that the Ukrainians have no desire to cede an inch of territory to the Russians. The trouble is Ukraine is simply running out of soldiers. If the men dying in the trenches are in their 50s - even late 50s - that is BAD
I fear an exhausted Ukraine will be forced to agree a truce over the winter which may then extend for many months or years as both sides regroup. Russia will keep most of what it’s got - Russify it - and count it as a bloody victory
It ain’t pretty. But that’s my guess
And that will lead to the same thing happening in five years, with Ukraine being invaded again under some pathetic excuse. Putin, and people like him in Russia, want Ukraine.
The 'stalemate' argument is *not* an argument for peace, in the medium or long term.
Its not something that anyone wants. It is just a prediction of what will happen if 'beat back Russia' fails. The latter strategy worked for a while but may have now reached its limits.
The countries that back Ukraine are unlikely to support an endless war.
Quite. I desperately want Ukraine to win. But I see what I see
The MoD generally adopts a positive attitude to the Ukrainian cause. Here is its latest map of the front lines. This does not scream “imminent pivotal breakthrough” to me
Of course that blogger upthread might be right and Ukraine is doing much better than this under the radar. Let’s hope so
It's in the nature of many things that there are often incremental changes that are not obvious on the surface, that accumulate over time, until a breaking point is reached, and then dramatic things happen.
You see this with some types of materials. You see it with the finances of individuals, companies and countries. We have seen it with the Russian Army, and I hope we will see it again.
It's impossible for us to know whether the Russians are a few days from breaking, weeks, months, or longer. We would be seeing similar things now in whichever case.
All I would say is that we have seen the Russians realise they are nearing their limit before, and they have retreated - from around Kyiv and the north and from the right bank - and we have seen the Russians surprised and the Ukrainians achieve a breakthrough - as at Kharkiv.
So there is every reason to expect that the Ukrainians can be successful again, and it is far too soon to panic.
Ukraine is going to run out of people. And limbs
“In Ukraine, a Surge in Amputations Reveals the Human Cost of Russia’s War: Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have lost limbs since the start of the war, according to previously unreported estimates wsj.com/articles/in-uk… via @WSJ”
In other Triassic news, I once stayed in the Landmark Trust house at Branscombe. I did the idyllic trek along the cliffs to Beer, while my wife generously looked after the then-three-year old.
London is going to be 16C max with torrential cold downpours this weekend
I think I prefer missiles
We are heading to Sligo today for a wedding tomorrow. The wedding is due to be held outside. With the wind chill from the north-westerlies it will feel like 9C.
Trump is acting like a mad gang boss with a personal vendetta and Americans are crazy enough to re-elect him. The Vox pops from Trump rallies are so full of delusional conspiracy stuff that 4 more years of Trump are a nightmare that looks likely to happen.
I don't bet much on American politics because it is too bonkers to predict. It would be fun if it didn't matter, but it does.
Yep, to unite the two threads on here currently - Putin knows he just has to wait for a Trump presidential election victory and the entire picture changes. And Trump has a great chance to win. Biden is a decent to good president, he will be an utterly disastrous candidate.
All those saying they're as bad as each other will never admit how important Biden has been to helping Ukraine fend off Putin. And they’ll blame France and Germany when Trump scales US involvement back.
But the blame game won’t change the facts on the ground. Without substantial and continued US aid, Ukraine will be on the back foot very quickly. That will have massive implications for all of us, while emboldening China in East Asia generally and with regards to Taiwan specifically.
Morning SO
just noticed from yesterday, have you moved to Devon permanently or are you just on hols ?
Greetings AB. Semi-retired now and living the good life in Sidmouth, where my wife and I have lowered the average age considerably! Back in Leamington quite a bit, though, to see the kids. Hope all is well with you!
Cheers SO, hope all goes well for you, youre in a nice part of the world.
Cheers - yep, East Devon is a bit overlooked compared to other parts of the county, but the country around here is stunning. Could do with a few more decent pubs, though. Food and drink wise we are a total backwater. But that will come, I reckon.
Trump is acting like a mad gang boss with a personal vendetta and Americans are crazy enough to re-elect him. The Vox pops from Trump rallies are so full of delusional conspiracy stuff that 4 more years of Trump are a nightmare that looks likely to happen.
I don't bet much on American politics because it is too bonkers to predict. It would be fun if it didn't matter, but it does.
Yep, to unite the two threads on here currently - Putin knows he just has to wait for a Trump presidential election victory and the entire picture changes. And Trump has a great chance to win. Biden is a decent to good president, he will be an utterly disastrous candidate.
All those saying they're as bad as each other will never admit how important Biden has been to helping Ukraine fend off Putin. And they’ll blame France and Germany when Trump scales US involvement back.
But the blame game won’t change the facts on the ground. Without substantial and continued US aid, Ukraine will be on the back foot very quickly. That will have massive implications for all of us, while emboldening China in East Asia generally and with regards to Taiwan specifically.
Biden wasn't a disastrous candidate in 2020 and he beat Trump, for which the whole world was thankful (with the exception of Russia).
Trump is acting like a mad gang boss with a personal vendetta and Americans are crazy enough to re-elect him. The Vox pops from Trump rallies are so full of delusional conspiracy stuff that 4 more years of Trump are a nightmare that looks likely to happen.
I don't bet much on American politics because it is too bonkers to predict. It would be fun if it didn't matter, but it does.
Yep, to unite the two threads on here currently - Putin knows he just has to wait for a Trump presidential election victory and the entire picture changes. And Trump has a great chance to win. Biden is a decent to good president, he will be an utterly disastrous candidate.
All those saying they're as bad as each other will never admit how important Biden has been to helping Ukraine fend off Putin. And they’ll blame France and Germany when Trump scales US involvement back.
But the blame game won’t change the facts on the ground. Without substantial and continued US aid, Ukraine will be on the back foot very quickly. That will have massive implications for all of us, while emboldening China in East Asia generally and with regards to Taiwan specifically.
Morning SO
just noticed from yesterday, have you moved to Devon permanently or are you just on hols ?
Greetings AB. Semi-retired now and living the good life in Sidmouth, where my wife and I have lowered the average age considerably! Back in Leamington quite a bit, though, to see the kids. Hope all is well with you!
It's a bit laboured but in summary: Pence (allegedly) will be called to testify that Trump asked him to reject certain states' electoral college votes. When Pence refused, Trump told him "You're too honest", which shows Trump knew the there was no justification to reject those votes.
From the NYT. This does not sound like “winning”, from a Ukrainian perspective
“For the last two months, as Ukrainian troops have tried to break through Russian defenses in a broad counteroffensive to seize back occupied terrain in southern Ukraine, their units have run into dense minefields and heavy Russian artillery fire and drone attacks.
“Each mile is a bloody fight as the counteroffensive has progressed painfully slowly, with units coming up against dug-in Russian defenses and taking heavy casualties. Troops spearheading the offensive have breached the first line of defense in areas in recent days, potentially opening the way for a deeper assault.
“Positioned close to the front lines, the stabilization points, temporary medical posts where patients are stabilized for onward evacuation, have been receiving a constant inflow of soldiers wounded in the fighting. The numbers have been “colossal,” said a medic from the center where the three men from the 110th Brigade were treated.”
So where does this go. Stalemate while the west ships in more arms and hope for a breakthrough ? Peace negotiations and some compromise ?
Ideally we would all like a swift Ukrainian win and Russia to replace Putin with someone less malign. That seems increasingly unlikely.
The counter offensive could ultimately work; it is too early to conclude it has failed. If it doesn't then the likely outcome is a negotiated stalemate. I don't believe that the current government in Russia could agree a compromise/peace deal. There are some advantages of a stalemate instead of a 'peace deal' - mainly that Ukraine can maintain its readiness to defend itself, rather than relying on dubious 'assurances' from Russia.
A agreed stalemate seems likely to me. A muddy armistice
@Sandpit is right that the Ukrainians have no desire to cede an inch of territory to the Russians. The trouble is Ukraine is simply running out of soldiers. If the men dying in the trenches are in their 50s - even late 50s - that is BAD
I fear an exhausted Ukraine will be forced to agree a truce over the winter which may then extend for many months or years as both sides regroup. Russia will keep most of what it’s got - Russify it - and count it as a bloody victory
It ain’t pretty. But that’s my guess
And that will lead to the same thing happening in five years, with Ukraine being invaded again under some pathetic excuse. Putin, and people like him in Russia, want Ukraine.
The 'stalemate' argument is *not* an argument for peace, in the medium or long term.
Its not something that anyone wants. It is just a prediction of what will happen if 'beat back Russia' fails. The latter strategy worked for a while but may have now reached its limits.
The countries that back Ukraine are unlikely to support an endless war.
Quite. I desperately want Ukraine to win. But I see what I see
The MoD generally adopts a positive attitude to the Ukrainian cause. Here is its latest map of the front lines. This does not scream “imminent pivotal breakthrough” to me
Of course that blogger upthread might be right and Ukraine is doing much better than this under the radar. Let’s hope so
The latter's most recent update says that 0.01% of Ukraine has been freed since the end of may2023. Which is not good.
I am not so concerned (although hardly relaxed!) about the situation. The advance south of Orkhiv is proceeding and may hit the coast by next year. Leon's point about manpower is true but countries can and do do this. It is a WW1 war, not a Desert Storm war: progress is slow, casualties are high, the grind grinds. This war will continue for years (my head canon says 2022-2025). Talk of a breakthrough, although pleasant, should be resisted because unpredictable.
The problem with this indictment is that it should have come 18 months ago so that we were already at, or even past, the trial. The delays mean that what we have are serious allegations but no proven facts or findings. This gives Trump's supporters some wriggle room. Already they talk about the weaponization of the justice system and make out they are the victims.
The US constitution, which does not deserve 1% of the praise lavished upon it, has once again been found wanting. It assumes that the President will act honourably, or, if not, Congress and the Senate will act honourably to uphold the rule of law. They didn't and they should be ashamed but, of course, they are not.
What is striking about that is the huge increase in renewables is only keeping pace with the huge increase in electricity supply overall, so that fossil fuel use is stable. Renewable expansion is going to have to accelerate some to keep up with the switch to electric in surface transport, ongoing expansion of electricity supply in India, China and Africa, and to reduce use of coal.
As a Watergate historian, it’s worth noting that nothing Nixon did—and he had plenty of crimes and conspiracies, involving more than 60 people criminally charged—approached the scale and severity of Trump’s assault on American democracy. https://twitter.com/vermontgmg/status/1686531761352609792?s=20
Good point. Viewed at this remove, Nixon's crimes appear almost quaint in comparison
The Democrats have opened Pandoras box and this could go anywhere . THe US is screwed
"Lock her up" was shouted by who, again?
And, it's the Democrats fault that Donald Trump allegedly committed crimes?
You can call a "pox on both your houses" with some degree of accuracy. But to point to the Dems and say the ball is entirely in your court - as you are doing - is willfully blind.
Now, I really, really hate the idea that governments use their political power to pursue political opponents. (Like Trump and the IRS vs Comey, for example.) But at the same time, should your political position shield you from all legal liability?
What of the upcoming tax/wirefraud case in NY? Trump valued properties at one price for the tax authorities and another for mortgages. And this wasn't a 10% difference, it was a multiple. People go to jail for that kind of thing all the time. Should he not be prosecuted, solely because he was President?
What is it about Trump that make otherwise sensible people lose their marbles ?
Hounding Trump will achieve precisely nothing except to make him more popular with his supporters and make diviisions in US society deeper.
As for the legal guff, Hilary is still walking free and has never been near a court nd I dont think anyome seriously expects the Biden\Hunter mess to be investigated before an election.
So you're saying laws actually should not apply to him?
That's his attitude, certainly, and that's what's got him into trouble.
Nobody is 'hounding' him, they're enforcing the multiple laws he's deliberately broken for his own gain.
Im saying the laws should apply to everyone and not just one individual. The US justice system is highly partisan and this is using the law to hamper an opponent who it appears cant be beaten by normal means.
That matter alone says what a poor position the Dems have, Worse now that the principle has been established if Trump were to win the election he can quite happily clear out the DoJ, pack it with his place men like Giuliani and lock up who he pleases as the Dems arent exactly choirboys.
And for the record I think that would be a total bag of shit too,
Trump tried to use the justice system to hound his opponents. It didn't work for him because ultimately the law-breaking of say, Hilary Clinton was quite low level. She should not have done what she did, but she was stupid rather than malign.
Her husband was, in case you've forgotten, impeached for his crimes although he wasn't in the end convicted.
Her husbands case I would actually say was the start of this whole sorry saga, The GOP tried to nobble Clinton by foul means and that set off the tit for tat escalation we have seen ever since.
As for Trump using the justice system, well as you say nobody got convicted. But I dont agree with that either , someone somewhere has to put the genie back in the bottle it just wont be either of the two presidential candidates.
Sigh.
The point is he *tried* to use the justice system to nobble his opponents and he failed because what happened wasn't ultimately significant enough to secure an indictment so the lawyers concerned told him 'no.' Had Clinton not handed over her email server, however belatedly and reluctantly, it might have been different. But that was not his call. Just as this is not Biden's. Or anyone in the government.
What's happening now is they *are* indicting him for multiple crimes he has not only committed but is repeatedly doubling down on.
And if you genuinely think January 6th was bad policing, you are profoundly ignorant of what happened. Again, read the indictment. How would 'bad policing,' for example, have led to a crowd gathering at Trump's urging that wanted to lynch the Vice President?
And if you don't think that, well...
No the point is he has been accused of it. He hasnt been convicted of anything,
And he has been accused of it not directly after the event when logically the state would lock up a real and present danger, but just before an election and by a partisan justice system. You draw one conclusion I draw another.
As for the policing issue London regulary gets trashed by people who shout down with the govt but these are riots not coups. And our police despite their critics handle them quite well. And just to wind you up even further J6 wasnt even a decent riot, I grew up in Ulster so I know what a riot looks like there were no petrol bombs, no stones no tear gas. Because all of those thinsg would have required organisation and hard work and Trump is too chaotic .
He has been INDICTED. That is the difference.
As for your last somewhat incoherent and illogical paragraph, put differently you are saying that should something not be exactly like your memories of a riot in Ulster it must not be a riot and therefore can't be a coup.
As a Watergate historian, it’s worth noting that nothing Nixon did—and he had plenty of crimes and conspiracies, involving more than 60 people criminally charged—approached the scale and severity of Trump’s assault on American democracy. https://twitter.com/vermontgmg/status/1686531761352609792?s=20
Good point. Viewed at this remove, Nixon's crimes appear almost quaint in comparison
The Democrats have opened Pandoras box and this could go anywhere . THe US is screwed
"Lock her up" was shouted by who, again?
And, it's the Democrats fault that Donald Trump allegedly committed crimes?
You can call a "pox on both your houses" with some degree of accuracy. But to point to the Dems and say the ball is entirely in your court - as you are doing - is willfully blind.
Now, I really, really hate the idea that governments use their political power to pursue political opponents. (Like Trump and the IRS vs Comey, for example.) But at the same time, should your political position shield you from all legal liability?
What of the upcoming tax/wirefraud case in NY? Trump valued properties at one price for the tax authorities and another for mortgages. And this wasn't a 10% difference, it was a multiple. People go to jail for that kind of thing all the time. Should he not be prosecuted, solely because he was President?
What is it about Trump that make otherwise sensible people lose their marbles ?
I think as one of the two people most affected on here by this phenomenon perhaps you could tell us?
Ive been indicted myself and had to go to court but never convicted because the charges were nonsense. In my case it was a french trade union trying it on for their own purposes. So so far Trump hasnt been convicted of anything, bar losing a civil case.
An indictment isnt a conviction unless youve decided hes guilty until proven innocent, which in its own way demonstrates the madness of a politicised justice system.
As for your second point Trump is like Brexit , people are so partisan about it they only eve believe one line of propaganda. There is very little room for standing back and looking at things in the round.
The democrats won the popular vote in the last 2 elections and on that basis should win the next one but as Ive said theyve opened Pandoras box so anything could happen.
Waiting outside my flat in the rain. E.on changed my meter two days ago and now we have a gas leak. Just 12 flats to evacuate.
Nice one.
Seriously considering a heat pump now.
How would it work for a tenement? A big one stuck on the roof for all of us?
Would certainly be the most efficient approach, if you can arrange the costs spilt fairly.
This is where the government needs to get involved. Shared repairs etc are a nightmare as it is. Needs some sort of shared loan system for homeowner that's generous but mandatory.
For all catastrophists - our next door neighbour is the former chief scientific officer of the Met Office. Talking to her the other day, she was very concerned about the rising sea temperatures. She said it was unprecedented and no-one knows why it has happened. We know very little about what goes on under the water and how it reflects or affects our weather. It's not had a huge amount of coverage, but it could well be the most significant thing climate-wise that is currently talking place.
Trump is acting like a mad gang boss with a personal vendetta and Americans are crazy enough to re-elect him. The Vox pops from Trump rallies are so full of delusional conspiracy stuff that 4 more years of Trump are a nightmare that looks likely to happen.
I don't bet much on American politics because it is too bonkers to predict. It would be fun if it didn't matter, but it does.
Yep, to unite the two threads on here currently - Putin knows he just has to wait for a Trump presidential election victory and the entire picture changes. And Trump has a great chance to win. Biden is a decent to good president, he will be an utterly disastrous candidate.
All those saying they're as bad as each other will never admit how important Biden has been to helping Ukraine fend off Putin. And they’ll blame France and Germany when Trump scales US involvement back.
But the blame game won’t change the facts on the ground. Without substantial and continued US aid, Ukraine will be on the back foot very quickly. That will have massive implications for all of us, while emboldening China in East Asia generally and with regards to Taiwan specifically.
Morning SO
just noticed from yesterday, have you moved to Devon permanently or are you just on hols ?
Greetings AB. Semi-retired now and living the good life in Sidmouth, where my wife and I have lowered the average age considerably! Back in Leamington quite a bit, though, to see the kids. Hope all is well with you!
Nice area, the Triassic-and-Jurassic coast.
Great walking country.
It is. We were down there some months back - not as far west as Sidmouth though, only as far as the Axe estuary (the tram ride through the birdy area being a regular treat when we go there, and I see one can get off in the middle of nowhere and birdwatch till the next tram). The newish Jurassic coast bus service looks very helpful for walkers though we didn't need it this time as it happens.
I fled to Sidmouth - ok, Exmouth - upon the partial relaxation of lockdown in April 2021.
A massive amount of potential but the seafront felt kind of elderly and tatty.
Shame about the unsightly caravan park at Sandy Bay, which in an ideal world would be protected landscape.
I heard a lot of Brummie down there and it dawned on me that it was essentially the nearest coast to Birmingham (apart from South Wales maybe?)
That honour traditionally goes to Weston-super-Mud. Whether it's geographically quite the closest, or just because of the main road, I don't remember.
Now Weston's a proper dump.
The Exmouth to Starcross ferry is nice, as is Starcross itself.
I did not get to Starcross. I was massively impressed with Topsham. That probably marks me down in some obscure code of etiquette.
It’s great countryside, like much of the UK. Its preservation among one of the densest populations in the world is one of the greatest but most undersung achievements of the last 100 years.
Waiting outside my flat in the rain. E.on changed my meter two days ago and now we have a gas leak. Just 12 flats to evacuate.
Nice one.
Seriously considering a heat pump now.
How would it work for a tenement? A big one stuck on the roof for all of us?
You’d want to find a good installer. Signs of that include doing flow tests on the water supply, looking the insulation levels throughout the building and actually doing some calculations.
Newsflash: I am one of the many cyclists who make up the supposedly 10,000/day bikes along the Embankment. Absolutely tipping it down today and I had only half the right clothes. And even when I'm suited up days like these are miserable on a bike.
When people advocate for increased cycle usage in the UK they really do need to do it in conjunction with the British Meteorogical Office and a cold hard (and wet) dose of reality. They need to understand that a huge number of people are simply not going to get on a bike in these or, frankly, any other conditions.
Waiting outside my flat in the rain. E.on changed my meter two days ago and now we have a gas leak. Just 12 flats to evacuate.
Nice one.
Seriously considering a heat pump now.
How would it work for a tenement? A big one stuck on the roof for all of us?
There must be a local equivalent to one of these near you. Big message (as was mentioned yday esp by @NerysHughes): the building needs to be energy efficient before you start otherwise you're sunk.
From the NYT. This does not sound like “winning”, from a Ukrainian perspective
“For the last two months, as Ukrainian troops have tried to break through Russian defenses in a broad counteroffensive to seize back occupied terrain in southern Ukraine, their units have run into dense minefields and heavy Russian artillery fire and drone attacks.
“Each mile is a bloody fight as the counteroffensive has progressed painfully slowly, with units coming up against dug-in Russian defenses and taking heavy casualties. Troops spearheading the offensive have breached the first line of defense in areas in recent days, potentially opening the way for a deeper assault.
“Positioned close to the front lines, the stabilization points, temporary medical posts where patients are stabilized for onward evacuation, have been receiving a constant inflow of soldiers wounded in the fighting. The numbers have been “colossal,” said a medic from the center where the three men from the 110th Brigade were treated.”
So where does this go. Stalemate while the west ships in more arms and hope for a breakthrough ? Peace negotiations and some compromise ?
Ideally we would all like a swift Ukrainian win and Russia to replace Putin with someone less malign. That seems increasingly unlikely.
The counter offensive could ultimately work; it is too early to conclude it has failed. If it doesn't then the likely outcome is a negotiated stalemate. I don't believe that the current government in Russia could agree a compromise/peace deal. There are some advantages of a stalemate instead of a 'peace deal' - mainly that Ukraine can maintain its readiness to defend itself, rather than relying on dubious 'assurances' from Russia.
A agreed stalemate seems likely to me. A muddy armistice
@Sandpit is right that the Ukrainians have no desire to cede an inch of territory to the Russians. The trouble is Ukraine is simply running out of soldiers. If the men dying in the trenches are in their 50s - even late 50s - that is BAD
I fear an exhausted Ukraine will be forced to agree a truce over the winter which may then extend for many months or years as both sides regroup. Russia will keep most of what it’s got - Russify it - and count it as a bloody victory
It ain’t pretty. But that’s my guess
And that will lead to the same thing happening in five years, with Ukraine being invaded again under some pathetic excuse. Putin, and people like him in Russia, want Ukraine.
The 'stalemate' argument is *not* an argument for peace, in the medium or long term.
Its not something that anyone wants. It is just a prediction of what will happen if 'beat back Russia' fails. The latter strategy worked for a while but may have now reached its limits.
The countries that back Ukraine are unlikely to support an endless war.
Quite. I desperately want Ukraine to win. But I see what I see
The MoD generally adopts a positive attitude to the Ukrainian cause. Here is its latest map of the front lines. This does not scream “imminent pivotal breakthrough” to me
Of course that blogger upthread might be right and Ukraine is doing much better than this under the radar. Let’s hope so
The latter's most recent update says that 0.01% of Ukraine has been freed since the end of may2023. Which is not good.
I am not so concerned (although hardly relaxed!) about the situation. The advance south of Orkhiv is proceeding and may hit the coast by next year. Leon's point about manpower is true but countries can and do do this. It is a WW1 war, not a Desert Storm war: progress is slow, casualties are high, the grind grinds. This war will continue for years (my head canon says 2022-2025). Talk of a breakthrough, although pleasant, should be resisted because unpredictable.
Putin will be digging in waiting for Trump to rescue him.
I fled to Sidmouth - ok, Exmouth - upon the partial relaxation of lockdown in April 2021.
A massive amount of potential but the seafront felt kind of elderly and tatty.
Shame about the unsightly caravan park at Sandy Bay, which in an ideal world would be protected landscape.
I heard a lot of Brummie down there and it dawned on me that it was essentially the nearest coast to Birmingham (apart from South Wales maybe?)
That honour traditionally goes to Weston-super-Mud. Whether it's geographically quite the closest, or just because of the main road, I don't remember.
Now Weston's a proper dump.
The Exmouth to Starcross ferry is nice, as is Starcross itself.
Starcross is on the cycle path down to Dawlish and up to Exeter, but the place itself is a bit nothing really. Except for a couple of points the train line cuts off the place from the estuary. Also, has more than its quota of crazy old ladies.
As a Watergate historian, it’s worth noting that nothing Nixon did—and he had plenty of crimes and conspiracies, involving more than 60 people criminally charged—approached the scale and severity of Trump’s assault on American democracy. https://twitter.com/vermontgmg/status/1686531761352609792?s=20
Good point. Viewed at this remove, Nixon's crimes appear almost quaint in comparison
The Democrats have opened Pandoras box and this could go anywhere . THe US is screwed
"Lock her up" was shouted by who, again?
And, it's the Democrats fault that Donald Trump allegedly committed crimes?
You can call a "pox on both your houses" with some degree of accuracy. But to point to the Dems and say the ball is entirely in your court - as you are doing - is willfully blind.
Now, I really, really hate the idea that governments use their political power to pursue political opponents. (Like Trump and the IRS vs Comey, for example.) But at the same time, should your political position shield you from all legal liability?
What of the upcoming tax/wirefraud case in NY? Trump valued properties at one price for the tax authorities and another for mortgages. And this wasn't a 10% difference, it was a multiple. People go to jail for that kind of thing all the time. Should he not be prosecuted, solely because he was President?
What is it about Trump that make otherwise sensible people lose their marbles ?
Hounding Trump will achieve precisely nothing except to make him more popular with his supporters and make diviisions in US society deeper.
As for the legal guff, Hilary is still walking free and has never been near a court nd I dont think anyome seriously expects the Biden\Hunter mess to be investigated before an election.
So you're saying laws actually should not apply to him?
That's his attitude, certainly, and that's what's got him into trouble.
Nobody is 'hounding' him, they're enforcing the multiple laws he's deliberately broken for his own gain.
Im saying the laws should apply to everyone and not just one individual. The US justice system is highly partisan and this is using the law to hamper an opponent who it appears cant be beaten by normal means.
That matter alone says what a poor position the Dems have, Worse now that the principle has been established if Trump were to win the election he can quite happily clear out the DoJ, pack it with his place men like Giuliani and lock up who he pleases as the Dems arent exactly choirboys.
And for the record I think that would be a total bag of shit too,
The problem is that it is very easy to find 'laws that have been broken' on the part of anyone, if you start digging. It is not realistic to maintain that this is an entirely neutral, apolitical process in any context.
I think the Trump thing is very difficult. 'damned if you do, damned if you don't'. You either add fuel to his narrative of conspiracy, or tolerate his most outrageous abuses to try and hold the system together.
The risk is the strategy doesn't work. We get Trump, despite the prosecutions. And then what? It seems to me that this is a likely outcome.
I agree, the best way to handle Trump is to ignore him, dont give him more stuff to grievance monger, The one plus in the whole affair is that he is getting too old to go on much longer, Just sit him out and start afresh.
Yes yes and hell start world war 3, turn america in to a fascist state bankrupt the economy etc. just like he didnt do in 2016. All that article tells you is the election campaign is getting in to gear.
He's told you that he doesn't plan to make the same mistake he did last time. Wise up!
Waiting outside my flat in the rain. E.on changed my meter two days ago and now we have a gas leak. Just 12 flats to evacuate.
Nice one.
Seriously considering a heat pump now.
How would it work for a tenement? A big one stuck on the roof for all of us?
You’d want to find a good installer. Signs of that include doing flow tests on the water supply, looking the insulation levels throughout the building and actually doing some calculations.
Trump seems to get indicted all the time. This seems a weak example of the breed, because it deals with events that have already taken place in public, and which everyone has their own opinion on. A court verdict calling Trump a conspirator (or whatever) is not going to move anyone's opinion on this, or Trump, at all.
It might move him to jail.
From where, as I understand it, he can still run for President.
So I believe. Can he then pardon himself?
Question though: say he is convicted, put in jail, still wins the election, but cannot attend the inauguration. Does he still become president and thus able to pardon himself?
If he becomes president, he can pardon himself for federal.crimes such as yesterday's charges, but can't pardon himself for state offences (coming soon in Georgia). The inauguration is ceremonial, if he wins the election he takes office automatically on whatever the specified date is. He can take the oath of office in prison.
From the NYT. This does not sound like “winning”, from a Ukrainian perspective
“For the last two months, as Ukrainian troops have tried to break through Russian defenses in a broad counteroffensive to seize back occupied terrain in southern Ukraine, their units have run into dense minefields and heavy Russian artillery fire and drone attacks.
“Each mile is a bloody fight as the counteroffensive has progressed painfully slowly, with units coming up against dug-in Russian defenses and taking heavy casualties. Troops spearheading the offensive have breached the first line of defense in areas in recent days, potentially opening the way for a deeper assault.
“Positioned close to the front lines, the stabilization points, temporary medical posts where patients are stabilized for onward evacuation, have been receiving a constant inflow of soldiers wounded in the fighting. The numbers have been “colossal,” said a medic from the center where the three men from the 110th Brigade were treated.”
I fled to Sidmouth - ok, Exmouth - upon the partial relaxation of lockdown in April 2021.
A massive amount of potential but the seafront felt kind of elderly and tatty.
Shame about the unsightly caravan park at Sandy Bay, which in an ideal world would be protected landscape.
I heard a lot of Brummie down there and it dawned on me that it was essentially the nearest coast to Birmingham (apart from South Wales maybe?)
That honour traditionally goes to Weston-super-Mud. Whether it's geographically quite the closest, or just because of the main road, I don't remember.
Now Weston's a proper dump.
The Exmouth to Starcross ferry is nice, as is Starcross itself.
I did not get to Starcross. I was massively impressed with Topsham. That probably marks me down in some obscure code of etiquette.
It’s great countryside, like much of the UK. Its preservation among one of the densest populations in the world is one of the greatest but most undersung achievements of the last 100 years.
Just thinking that about Topsham myself. Starcross has its merits (and a pumping station for the disastrous Brunelian atmospheric railway) and I like the location of the pub by the end of the Exeter Ship Canal somewhere near there. Didn't get in to try it out.
I came across this chap recently when reading about the Tr-Jurassic coast - Vaughan Cornish. Instrumental in helping preserve scenery in general and in Sidmouth in particular.
The problem with this indictment is that it should have come 18 months ago so that we were already at, or even past, the trial. The delays mean that what we have are serious allegations but no proven facts or findings. This gives Trump's supporters some wriggle room. Already they talk about the weaponization of the justice system and make out they are the victims.
The US constitution, which does not deserve 1% of the praise lavished upon it, has once again been found wanting. It assumes that the President will act honourably, or, if not, Congress and the Senate will act honourably to uphold the rule of law. They didn't and they should be ashamed but, of course, they are not.
US justice is hugely expensive and moves ridiculously slowly. In my area, a single patent infringement suit can take well over a decade to get to a final outcome - first instance, then appeal after appeal after appeal, there always seems to be another angle. It bankrupts many people and makes makes a few very rich!
Newsflash: I am one of the many cyclists who make up the supposedly 10,000/day bikes along the Embankment. Absolutely tipping it down today and I had only half the right clothes. And even when I'm suited up days like these are miserable on a bike.
When people advocate for increased cycle usage in the UK they really do need to do it in conjunction with the British Meteorogical Office and a cold hard (and wet) dose of reality. They need to understand that a huge number of people are simply not going to get on a bike in these or, frankly, any other conditions.
It rains more in Amsterdam than it does in London yet somehow they manage.
I’ll admit it is tipping it down right now though.
As a Watergate historian, it’s worth noting that nothing Nixon did—and he had plenty of crimes and conspiracies, involving more than 60 people criminally charged—approached the scale and severity of Trump’s assault on American democracy. https://twitter.com/vermontgmg/status/1686531761352609792?s=20
Good point. Viewed at this remove, Nixon's crimes appear almost quaint in comparison
The Democrats have opened Pandoras box and this could go anywhere . THe US is screwed
"Lock her up" was shouted by who, again?
And, it's the Democrats fault that Donald Trump allegedly committed crimes?
You can call a "pox on both your houses" with some degree of accuracy. But to point to the Dems and say the ball is entirely in your court - as you are doing - is willfully blind.
Now, I really, really hate the idea that governments use their political power to pursue political opponents. (Like Trump and the IRS vs Comey, for example.) But at the same time, should your political position shield you from all legal liability?
What of the upcoming tax/wirefraud case in NY? Trump valued properties at one price for the tax authorities and another for mortgages. And this wasn't a 10% difference, it was a multiple. People go to jail for that kind of thing all the time. Should he not be prosecuted, solely because he was President?
What is it about Trump that make otherwise sensible people lose their marbles ?
Hounding Trump will achieve precisely nothing except to make him more popular with his supporters and make diviisions in US society deeper.
As for the legal guff, Hilary is still walking free and has never been near a court nd I dont think anyome seriously expects the Biden\Hunter mess to be investigated before an election.
So you're saying laws actually should not apply to him?
That's his attitude, certainly, and that's what's got him into trouble.
Nobody is 'hounding' him, they're enforcing the multiple laws he's deliberately broken for his own gain.
Im saying the laws should apply to everyone and not just one individual. The US justice system is highly partisan and this is using the law to hamper an opponent who it appears cant be beaten by normal means.
That matter alone says what a poor position the Dems have, Worse now that the principle has been established if Trump were to win the election he can quite happily clear out the DoJ, pack it with his place men like Giuliani and lock up who he pleases as the Dems arent exactly choirboys.
And for the record I think that would be a total bag of shit too,
The problem is that it is very easy to find 'laws that have been broken' on the part of anyone, if you start digging. It is not realistic to maintain that this is an entirely neutral, apolitical process in any context.
I think the Trump thing is very difficult. 'damned if you do, damned if you don't'. You either add fuel to his narrative of conspiracy, or tolerate his most outrageous abuses to try and hold the system together.
The risk is the strategy doesn't work. We get Trump, despite the prosecutions. And then what? It seems to me that this is a likely outcome.
I agree, the best way to handle Trump is to ignore him, dont give him more stuff to grievance monger, The one plus in the whole affair is that he is getting too old to go on much longer, Just sit him out and start afresh.
Yes yes and hell start world war 3, turn america in to a fascist state bankrupt the economy etc. just like he didnt do in 2016. All that article tells you is the election campaign is getting in to gear.
He's told you that he doesn't plan to make the same mistake he did last time. Wise up!
Youre just a sucker for taking politicians seriously.
Newsflash: I am one of the many cyclists who make up the supposedly 10,000/day bikes along the Embankment. Absolutely tipping it down today and I had only half the right clothes. And even when I'm suited up days like these are miserable on a bike.
When people advocate for increased cycle usage in the UK they really do need to do it in conjunction with the British Meteorogical Office and a cold hard (and wet) dose of reality. They need to understand that a huge number of people are simply not going to get on a bike in these or, frankly, any other conditions.
Oh here we go!
I had a look at the cycle stats for Amsterdam and they hardly vary with weather. In Edinburgh, on a monthly basis, there isn't much seasonal variation either.
His supporters will (and are) already dismissing it as politically motivated bulls**t, designed to cover for the corrupt Biden family, and because they know he’s the greatest ever President who will win again, which is why the Establishment wants to get him of the ballot.
Whether that sentiment resonates with the wider US electorate, on the other hand, is a question best left to the reader.
His supporters are batshit crazy. Hopefully the typical wider American electorate is not.
There is an uncanny amount of similarity between Jeremy Corbyn and Donald Trump, so perhaps like his British equivalent it will take a second electoral defeat in November next year to provide the stake through the heart that his form of politics so richly really needs.
Hopefully 6 January was the equivalent of Salisbury where the wider electorate saw his true colors [sic].
You'd think so, but people who had stepped back from him on that day like Lindsey Graham are now even more firmly in his corner.
That seems to apply to general supporters as well, given a bunch of them don't try to excuse January 6th they practically call the rioters heroes.
Hopefully independents have seen his true colours, but how many of the 1 in 4 or 5 GOP voters who are against him won't vote for him? People who stood up to him trying to overturn the election are still voting for him!
I fled to Sidmouth - ok, Exmouth - upon the partial relaxation of lockdown in April 2021.
A massive amount of potential but the seafront felt kind of elderly and tatty.
Shame about the unsightly caravan park at Sandy Bay, which in an ideal world would be protected landscape.
I heard a lot of Brummie down there and it dawned on me that it was essentially the nearest coast to Birmingham (apart from South Wales maybe?)
That honour traditionally goes to Weston-super-Mud. Whether it's geographically quite the closest, or just because of the main road, I don't remember.
Now Weston's a proper dump.
The Exmouth to Starcross ferry is nice, as is Starcross itself.
I would have thought Rhyl and Prestatyn in North Wales would be next closest after Weston. Certainly for the northern parts of the West Midlands, Sutton Coldfield and Walsall.
Waiting outside my flat in the rain. E.on changed my meter two days ago and now we have a gas leak. Just 12 flats to evacuate.
Nice one.
Seriously considering a heat pump now.
How would it work for a tenement? A big one stuck on the roof for all of us?
You’d want to find a good installer. Signs of that include doing flow tests on the water supply, looking the insulation levels throughout the building and actually doing some calculations.
He'll never see a day in prison. Smith has actually moved quite fast, but overall the wheels of justice have gone too slow and he's recaptured the party to protect him.
Trump is acting like a mad gang boss with a personal vendetta and Americans are crazy enough to re-elect him. The Vox pops from Trump rallies are so full of delusional conspiracy stuff that 4 more years of Trump are a nightmare that looks likely to happen.
I don't bet much on American politics because it is too bonkers to predict. It would be fun if it didn't matter, but it does.
Yep, to unite the two threads on here currently - Putin knows he just has to wait for a Trump presidential election victory and the entire picture changes. And Trump has a great chance to win. Biden is a decent to good president, he will be an utterly disastrous candidate.
All those saying they're as bad as each other will never admit how important Biden has been to helping Ukraine fend off Putin. And they’ll blame France and Germany when Trump scales US involvement back.
But the blame game won’t change the facts on the ground. Without substantial and continued US aid, Ukraine will be on the back foot very quickly. That will have massive implications for all of us, while emboldening China in East Asia generally and with regards to Taiwan specifically.
Morning SO
just noticed from yesterday, have you moved to Devon permanently or are you just on hols ?
Greetings AB. Semi-retired now and living the good life in Sidmouth, where my wife and I have lowered the average age considerably! Back in Leamington quite a bit, though, to see the kids. Hope all is well with you!
Nice area, the Triassic-and-Jurassic coast.
Great walking country.
It is. We were down there some months back - not as far west as Sidmouth though, only as far as the Axe estuary (the tram ride through the birdy area being a regular treat when we go there, and I see one can get off in the middle of nowhere and birdwatch till the next tram). The newish Jurassic coast bus service looks very helpful for walkers though we didn't need it this time as it happens.
I thought that bus service had been cut. A few have been recently. The buses don't run to Lyme Regis from Sidmouth anymore, which is a big shame as I'd planned to do the SW Coast Path walk from there back to base.
As a Watergate historian, it’s worth noting that nothing Nixon did—and he had plenty of crimes and conspiracies, involving more than 60 people criminally charged—approached the scale and severity of Trump’s assault on American democracy. https://twitter.com/vermontgmg/status/1686531761352609792?s=20
Good point. Viewed at this remove, Nixon's crimes appear almost quaint in comparison
The Democrats have opened Pandoras box and this could go anywhere . THe US is screwed
"Lock her up" was shouted by who, again?
And, it's the Democrats fault that Donald Trump allegedly committed crimes?
You can call a "pox on both your houses" with some degree of accuracy. But to point to the Dems and say the ball is entirely in your court - as you are doing - is willfully blind.
Now, I really, really hate the idea that governments use their political power to pursue political opponents. (Like Trump and the IRS vs Comey, for example.) But at the same time, should your political position shield you from all legal liability?
What of the upcoming tax/wirefraud case in NY? Trump valued properties at one price for the tax authorities and another for mortgages. And this wasn't a 10% difference, it was a multiple. People go to jail for that kind of thing all the time. Should he not be prosecuted, solely because he was President?
What is it about Trump that make otherwise sensible people lose their marbles ?
Hounding Trump will achieve precisely nothing except to make him more popular with his supporters and make diviisions in US society deeper.
As for the legal guff, Hilary is still walking free and has never been near a court nd I dont think anyome seriously expects the Biden\Hunter mess to be investigated before an election.
It must have escaped your notice that Congress have been doing just that - and appear to have turned up nothing at all that implicates the President.
His son has been charged with crimes - having faced more Congressional investigation than any private citizen in the last couple of decades -and is currently having his plea deal reviewed by a Republican appointed judge. Unlike various members of Trump's family, he's never held any position in the administration.
Your both sides-ism is feeble.
Totally agree . This equivalence between Trump and Biden is jaw dropping.
For all catastrophists - our next door neighbour is the former chief scientific officer of the Met Office. Talking to her the other day, she was very concerned about the rising sea temperatures. She said it was unprecedented and no-one knows why it has happened. We know very little about what goes on under the water and how it reflects or affects our weather. It's not had a huge amount of coverage, but it could well be the most significant thing climate-wise that is currently talking place.
From the NYT. This does not sound like “winning”, from a Ukrainian perspective
“For the last two months, as Ukrainian troops have tried to break through Russian defenses in a broad counteroffensive to seize back occupied terrain in southern Ukraine, their units have run into dense minefields and heavy Russian artillery fire and drone attacks.
“Each mile is a bloody fight as the counteroffensive has progressed painfully slowly, with units coming up against dug-in Russian defenses and taking heavy casualties. Troops spearheading the offensive have breached the first line of defense in areas in recent days, potentially opening the way for a deeper assault.
“Positioned close to the front lines, the stabilization points, temporary medical posts where patients are stabilized for onward evacuation, have been receiving a constant inflow of soldiers wounded in the fighting. The numbers have been “colossal,” said a medic from the center where the three men from the 110th Brigade were treated.”
So where does this go. Stalemate while the west ships in more arms and hope for a breakthrough ? Peace negotiations and some compromise ?
Ideally we would all like a swift Ukrainian win and Russia to replace Putin with someone less malign. That seems increasingly unlikely.
The counter offensive could ultimately work; it is too early to conclude it has failed. If it doesn't then the likely outcome is a negotiated stalemate. I don't believe that the current government in Russia could agree a compromise/peace deal. There are some advantages of a stalemate instead of a 'peace deal' - mainly that Ukraine can maintain its readiness to defend itself, rather than relying on dubious 'assurances' from Russia.
A agreed stalemate seems likely to me. A muddy armistice
@Sandpit is right that the Ukrainians have no desire to cede an inch of territory to the Russians. The trouble is Ukraine is simply running out of soldiers. If the men dying in the trenches are in their 50s - even late 50s - that is BAD
I fear an exhausted Ukraine will be forced to agree a truce over the winter which may then extend for many months or years as both sides regroup. Russia will keep most of what it’s got - Russify it - and count it as a bloody victory
It ain’t pretty. But that’s my guess
And that will lead to the same thing happening in five years, with Ukraine being invaded again under some pathetic excuse. Putin, and people like him in Russia, want Ukraine.
The 'stalemate' argument is *not* an argument for peace, in the medium or long term.
Its not something that anyone wants. It is just a prediction of what will happen if 'beat back Russia' fails. The latter strategy worked for a while but may have now reached its limits.
The countries that back Ukraine are unlikely to support an endless war.
Quite. I desperately want Ukraine to win. But I see what I see
The MoD generally adopts a positive attitude to the Ukrainian cause. Here is its latest map of the front lines. This does not scream “imminent pivotal breakthrough” to me
Of course that blogger upthread might be right and Ukraine is doing much better than this under the radar. Let’s hope so
The latter's most recent update says that 0.01% of Ukraine has been freed since the end of may2023. Which is not good.
I am not so concerned (although hardly relaxed!) about the situation. The advance south of Orkhiv is proceeding and may hit the coast by next year. Leon's point about manpower is true but countries can and do do this. It is a WW1 war, not a Desert Storm war: progress is slow, casualties are high, the grind grinds. This war will continue for years (my head canon says 2022-2025). Talk of a breakthrough, although pleasant, should be resisted because unpredictable.
That WSJ article I linked upthread says that Ukraine is experiencing amputations on a level comparable to the UK and Germany at the END of WW1
You can blithely say “the war will continue until 2025” but I reckon Ukraine cannot sustain this for more than another few months. Not at this level of attrition and loss
It’s basic maths. Ukraine has a population ~35m (when you factor in refugees and others that have fled). Russia’s is 140m. Russia is four times bigger and with a much larger economy and equivalent air power etc
The west has pumped in squillions in aid and materiel but in the end if you run out of soldiers that’s it
I fled to Sidmouth - ok, Exmouth - upon the partial relaxation of lockdown in April 2021.
A massive amount of potential but the seafront felt kind of elderly and tatty.
Shame about the unsightly caravan park at Sandy Bay, which in an ideal world would be protected landscape.
I heard a lot of Brummie down there and it dawned on me that it was essentially the nearest coast to Birmingham (apart from South Wales maybe?)
That honour traditionally goes to Weston-super-Mud. Whether it's geographically quite the closest, or just because of the main road, I don't remember.
Now Weston's a proper dump.
The Exmouth to Starcross ferry is nice, as is Starcross itself.
I would have thought Rhyl and Prestatyn in North Wales would be next closest after Weston. Certainly for the northern parts of the West Midlands, Sutton Coldfield and Walsall.
North Wales is essentially a littoral colony of Liverpool.
Brummies own mid-Wales, but there’s no easily accessible beach. It’s all about getting on the M5 for the denizens of Motor City.
As a Watergate historian, it’s worth noting that nothing Nixon did—and he had plenty of crimes and conspiracies, involving more than 60 people criminally charged—approached the scale and severity of Trump’s assault on American democracy. https://twitter.com/vermontgmg/status/1686531761352609792?s=20
Good point. Viewed at this remove, Nixon's crimes appear almost quaint in comparison
The Democrats have opened Pandoras box and this could go anywhere . THe US is screwed
"Lock her up" was shouted by who, again?
And, it's the Democrats fault that Donald Trump allegedly committed crimes?
You can call a "pox on both your houses" with some degree of accuracy. But to point to the Dems and say the ball is entirely in your court - as you are doing - is willfully blind.
Now, I really, really hate the idea that governments use their political power to pursue political opponents. (Like Trump and the IRS vs Comey, for example.) But at the same time, should your political position shield you from all legal liability?
What of the upcoming tax/wirefraud case in NY? Trump valued properties at one price for the tax authorities and another for mortgages. And this wasn't a 10% difference, it was a multiple. People go to jail for that kind of thing all the time. Should he not be prosecuted, solely because he was President?
What is it about Trump that make otherwise sensible people lose their marbles ?
Hounding Trump will achieve precisely nothing except to make him more popular with his supporters and make diviisions in US society deeper.
As for the legal guff, Hilary is still walking free and has never been near a court nd I dont think anyome seriously expects the Biden\Hunter mess to be investigated before an election.
So you're saying laws actually should not apply to him?
That's his attitude, certainly, and that's what's got him into trouble.
Nobody is 'hounding' him, they're enforcing the multiple laws he's deliberately broken for his own gain.
Im saying the laws should apply to everyone and not just one individual. The US justice system is highly partisan and this is using the law to hamper an opponent who it appears cant be beaten by normal means.
That matter alone says what a poor position the Dems have, Worse now that the principle has been established if Trump were to win the election he can quite happily clear out the DoJ, pack it with his place men like Giuliani and lock up who he pleases as the Dems arent exactly choirboys.
And for the record I think that would be a total bag of shit too,
Trump tried to use the justice system to hound his opponents. It didn't work for him because ultimately the law-breaking of say, Hilary Clinton was quite low level. She should not have done what she did, but she was stupid rather than malign.
Her husband was, in case you've forgotten, impeached for his crimes although he wasn't in the end convicted.
Her husbands case I would actually say was the start of this whole sorry saga, The GOP tried to nobble Clinton by foul means and that set off the tit for tat escalation we have seen ever since.
As for Trump using the justice system, well as you say nobody got convicted. But I dont agree with that either , someone somewhere has to put the genie back in the bottle it just wont be either of the two presidential candidates.
Sigh.
The point is he *tried* to use the justice system to nobble his opponents and he failed because what happened wasn't ultimately significant enough to secure an indictment so the lawyers concerned told him 'no.' Had Clinton not handed over her email server, however belatedly and reluctantly, it might have been different. But that was not his call. Just as this is not Biden's. Or anyone in the government.
What's happening now is they *are* indicting him for multiple crimes he has not only committed but is repeatedly doubling down on.
And if you genuinely think January 6th was bad policing, you are profoundly ignorant of what happened. Again, read the indictment. How would 'bad policing,' for example, have led to a crowd gathering at Trump's urging that wanted to lynch the Vice President?
And if you don't think that, well...
I note from the indictment that his own White House Chief of Staff has testified against him.
The key in many potential Trump cases is proving whether he knowingly did things, because he's pretty bonkers and seems to believe anything he's just read so he might claim to really not know certain things.
That's why the indictment really hammers home how many times he was told by people who worked for him that various claims were untrue, sometimes mere hours before repeating them. Only a few quotes from him admitting he had list though, more would have helped.
From the NYT. This does not sound like “winning”, from a Ukrainian perspective
“For the last two months, as Ukrainian troops have tried to break through Russian defenses in a broad counteroffensive to seize back occupied terrain in southern Ukraine, their units have run into dense minefields and heavy Russian artillery fire and drone attacks.
“Each mile is a bloody fight as the counteroffensive has progressed painfully slowly, with units coming up against dug-in Russian defenses and taking heavy casualties. Troops spearheading the offensive have breached the first line of defense in areas in recent days, potentially opening the way for a deeper assault.
“Positioned close to the front lines, the stabilization points, temporary medical posts where patients are stabilized for onward evacuation, have been receiving a constant inflow of soldiers wounded in the fighting. The numbers have been “colossal,” said a medic from the center where the three men from the 110th Brigade were treated.”
Current Ukrainian casualties, compared to Russian, are estimated at 1:1. That’s a good ratio for an attacker.
Arguing against myself for the moment, that's not the critical factor. It doesn't matter how many Russians die, it matters how many Ukrainians die. Leon's point is not as telling as he thinks but he's not wrong either, and Ukrainians are a finite resource. The Russians can bleed more than the Ukrainians on sheer mass of numbers.
It's a bit laboured but in summary: Pence (allegedly) will be called to testify that Trump asked him to reject certain states' electoral college votes. When Pence refused, Trump told him "You're too honest", which shows Trump knew the there was no justification to reject those votes.
I think.
There's quite a lot more than that.
There is extensive evidence of his pressuring state officials to help overturn the election on the basis of voter fraud, while knowing that there was no evidence of any such fraud (as multiple White House officials testify). Read the indictment - https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2023/08/trump-indictment.pdf
From the NYT. This does not sound like “winning”, from a Ukrainian perspective
“For the last two months, as Ukrainian troops have tried to break through Russian defenses in a broad counteroffensive to seize back occupied terrain in southern Ukraine, their units have run into dense minefields and heavy Russian artillery fire and drone attacks.
“Each mile is a bloody fight as the counteroffensive has progressed painfully slowly, with units coming up against dug-in Russian defenses and taking heavy casualties. Troops spearheading the offensive have breached the first line of defense in areas in recent days, potentially opening the way for a deeper assault.
“Positioned close to the front lines, the stabilization points, temporary medical posts where patients are stabilized for onward evacuation, have been receiving a constant inflow of soldiers wounded in the fighting. The numbers have been “colossal,” said a medic from the center where the three men from the 110th Brigade were treated.”
Current Ukrainian casualties, compared to Russian, are estimated at 1:1. That’s a good ratio for an attacker.
Yes, it is and it reflects their superior kit and training. But Ukraine cannot maintain that ratio indefinitely. The theory was that Russia would crack, that their logistics would collapse, that we would see the same sort of progress that we did last year. None of this has happened.
We also had many people criticising the "stupidity" of the Russians leaving their defensive lines and engaging in battles in their minefields. That has proven to be exactly the right tactics, effectively removing the advantage that modern western tanks could give Ukraine and forcing them back to brutal infantry attacks.
It is still possible that there is a sudden collapse. I hope so. Time is running out for Ukraine.
From the NYT. This does not sound like “winning”, from a Ukrainian perspective
“For the last two months, as Ukrainian troops have tried to break through Russian defenses in a broad counteroffensive to seize back occupied terrain in southern Ukraine, their units have run into dense minefields and heavy Russian artillery fire and drone attacks.
“Each mile is a bloody fight as the counteroffensive has progressed painfully slowly, with units coming up against dug-in Russian defenses and taking heavy casualties. Troops spearheading the offensive have breached the first line of defense in areas in recent days, potentially opening the way for a deeper assault.
“Positioned close to the front lines, the stabilization points, temporary medical posts where patients are stabilized for onward evacuation, have been receiving a constant inflow of soldiers wounded in the fighting. The numbers have been “colossal,” said a medic from the center where the three men from the 110th Brigade were treated.”
So where does this go. Stalemate while the west ships in more arms and hope for a breakthrough ? Peace negotiations and some compromise ?
Ideally we would all like a swift Ukrainian win and Russia to replace Putin with someone less malign. That seems increasingly unlikely.
The counter offensive could ultimately work; it is too early to conclude it has failed. If it doesn't then the likely outcome is a negotiated stalemate. I don't believe that the current government in Russia could agree a compromise/peace deal. There are some advantages of a stalemate instead of a 'peace deal' - mainly that Ukraine can maintain its readiness to defend itself, rather than relying on dubious 'assurances' from Russia.
A agreed stalemate seems likely to me. A muddy armistice
@Sandpit is right that the Ukrainians have no desire to cede an inch of territory to the Russians. The trouble is Ukraine is simply running out of soldiers. If the men dying in the trenches are in their 50s - even late 50s - that is BAD
I fear an exhausted Ukraine will be forced to agree a truce over the winter which may then extend for many months or years as both sides regroup. Russia will keep most of what it’s got - Russify it - and count it as a bloody victory
It ain’t pretty. But that’s my guess
And that will lead to the same thing happening in five years, with Ukraine being invaded again under some pathetic excuse. Putin, and people like him in Russia, want Ukraine.
The 'stalemate' argument is *not* an argument for peace, in the medium or long term.
Its not something that anyone wants. It is just a prediction of what will happen if 'beat back Russia' fails. The latter strategy worked for a while but may have now reached its limits.
The countries that back Ukraine are unlikely to support an endless war.
Quite. I desperately want Ukraine to win. But I see what I see
The MoD generally adopts a positive attitude to the Ukrainian cause. Here is its latest map of the front lines. This does not scream “imminent pivotal breakthrough” to me
Of course that blogger upthread might be right and Ukraine is doing much better than this under the radar. Let’s hope so
The war isn't hitting Russia as badly as it's hitting Ukraine, as evidenced by how it's only the Ukraine that has banned men from leaving the country. Russia hasn't. By that metric, Ukraine is more mobilised than Russia at the moment.
As for psywar, the first impression is that the Russian strength in this domain that was so evident during the election of Trump in 2016 (and pro Brexit before then) has NOT been evident during this war. Even the TASS website is crap, and you wonder whether the Russian state is making much of an effort. And this is while there's wall to wall pro-Zelensky propaganda in the media in a country like Britain. BUT THEN YOU WONDER whether the Wagner mutiny of June 2023 wasn't a Russian state operation. I'm beginning to think it may well have been, and that Putin and Prigozhin are working as one to pull our plonkers.
Then regarding the Ukraine it's curious that all the opposition in that country during 2013-14 to pro-EU policy (which was the form that the westernising line then took, rather than pro-NATO) just all of a sudden disappeared in the night, having been nothing more (if anybody believes Wikipedia) than the product of Russian foreigners handing out 50 or 100 US dollars (sic) to pay people to hold anti-Maidan banners, when they weren't bussing themselves in to go on demos pretending to be from Ukraine. The reason I mention this is that when Zelensky's star falls it could fall very fast. He was elected in the Yes Minister election of 2019 but looking at the f***ing disaster that this stooge's term in office has been, that may turn out to be a trick he can only perform once. Incidentally there's martial law in Ukraine at the moment, and although the next presidential election is supposed to be held in 2024 the consty-tooshun doesn't allow presidential elections to be held during martial law.
Not that this is much cause for optimism that the war will end within a year or two, which seems unlikely. It's scary to try to look at it from a neo-Nazi point of view, imagining that one is a neo-Nazi either of Utkin's ilk or Azov's. War war war is what these tattooed would-be incels love most of all, and by f*** if you look at the territories haven't they done well since 2014...and they may well be assuming that their field of operations will expand. Indeed Utkin has explicitly said this, and in a more scary way than Kadyrov saying ha ha we're going to Poland next. Watch Belarus. Won't be surprising if a NATO country gets seriously destabilised too,
Welcome to retirement, those who have announced it today. It’s been great for me and mine; we were able to get about and do all sorts of things. Sadly, while the spirit is still winning, my flesh, at least, is weak! It’s not easy to go in, and visit people iand places anymore; they have to come to me! Fortunately, discussion pages such as this represents something of a lifeline!
The problem with this indictment is that it should have come 18 months ago so that we were already at, or even past, the trial. The delays mean that what we have are serious allegations but no proven facts or findings. This gives Trump's supporters some wriggle room. Already they talk about the weaponization of the justice system and make out they are the victims.
The US constitution, which does not deserve 1% of the praise lavished upon it, has once again been found wanting. It assumes that the President will act honourably, or, if not, Congress and the Senate will act honourably to uphold the rule of law. They didn't and they should be ashamed but, of course, they are not.
The whole “Jan 6th” investigation is very irregular, there seems to be several different agencies all looking at prosecuting the same offences.
There are stories abound of people who have been held on remand for two years but don’t know with what offences they’ve been charged, and there’s one weird story of a guy called Ray Epps, who was seen encouraging the crowds but was for a long time treated as a witness rather than a suspect. His lawyer blames Fox News, after the news station was handed CCTV of him from that day, and it’s also been alleged that Epps is either an FBI informant, or working with authorities in some way.
Meanwhile, other protagonists took a plea deal (a horrible idea in a justice system), served their time and are back out again, and others were found not guilty after CCTV emerged of them being let in past a cordon by police on duty.
I suspect that the idea was always to try and make sure that Trump was charged with something, which has now happened, but there’s still way more questions than answers two years later.
His supporters will (and are) already dismissing it as politically motivated bulls**t, designed to cover for the corrupt Biden family, and because they know he’s the greatest ever President who will win again, which is why the Establishment wants to get him of the ballot.
Whether that sentiment resonates with the wider US electorate, on the other hand, is a question best left to the reader.
His supporters are batshit crazy. Hopefully the typical wider American electorate is not.
There is an uncanny amount of similarity between Jeremy Corbyn and Donald Trump, so perhaps like his British equivalent it will take a second electoral defeat in November next year to provide the stake through the heart that his form of politics so richly really needs.
Hopefully 6 January was the equivalent of Salisbury where the wider electorate saw his true colors [sic].
You'd think so, but people who had stepped back from him on that day like Lindsey Graham are now even more firmly in his corner.
That seems to apply to general supporters as well, given a bunch of them don't try to excuse January 6th they practically call the rioters heroes.
Hopefully independents have seen his true colours, but how many of the 1 in 4 or 5 GOP voters who are against him won't vote for him? People who stood up to him trying to overturn the election are still voting for him!
True, but I have faith in the numbers. There are more registered Democrats than registered Republicans, The number of people who identify with and declare themselves as Independent voters is second next to Democrats. What might be surprising to many people is that the overall number of people who claim affiliation with the Independent party is usually more than those who declare themselves as either Democrat or Republican.
Trump has a fanatical base, that is more akin to a cult than a political party, but they comprise 'only' about 30% of the electorate.
From the NYT. This does not sound like “winning”, from a Ukrainian perspective
“For the last two months, as Ukrainian troops have tried to break through Russian defenses in a broad counteroffensive to seize back occupied terrain in southern Ukraine, their units have run into dense minefields and heavy Russian artillery fire and drone attacks.
“Each mile is a bloody fight as the counteroffensive has progressed painfully slowly, with units coming up against dug-in Russian defenses and taking heavy casualties. Troops spearheading the offensive have breached the first line of defense in areas in recent days, potentially opening the way for a deeper assault.
“Positioned close to the front lines, the stabilization points, temporary medical posts where patients are stabilized for onward evacuation, have been receiving a constant inflow of soldiers wounded in the fighting. The numbers have been “colossal,” said a medic from the center where the three men from the 110th Brigade were treated.”
So where does this go. Stalemate while the west ships in more arms and hope for a breakthrough ? Peace negotiations and some compromise ?
Ideally we would all like a swift Ukrainian win and Russia to replace Putin with someone less malign. That seems increasingly unlikely.
The counter offensive could ultimately work; it is too early to conclude it has failed. If it doesn't then the likely outcome is a negotiated stalemate. I don't believe that the current government in Russia could agree a compromise/peace deal. There are some advantages of a stalemate instead of a 'peace deal' - mainly that Ukraine can maintain its readiness to defend itself, rather than relying on dubious 'assurances' from Russia.
A agreed stalemate seems likely to me. A muddy armistice
@Sandpit is right that the Ukrainians have no desire to cede an inch of territory to the Russians. The trouble is Ukraine is simply running out of soldiers. If the men dying in the trenches are in their 50s - even late 50s - that is BAD
I fear an exhausted Ukraine will be forced to agree a truce over the winter which may then extend for many months or years as both sides regroup. Russia will keep most of what it’s got - Russify it - and count it as a bloody victory
It ain’t pretty. But that’s my guess
And that will lead to the same thing happening in five years, with Ukraine being invaded again under some pathetic excuse. Putin, and people like him in Russia, want Ukraine.
The 'stalemate' argument is *not* an argument for peace, in the medium or long term.
Its not something that anyone wants. It is just a prediction of what will happen if 'beat back Russia' fails. The latter strategy worked for a while but may have now reached its limits.
The countries that back Ukraine are unlikely to support an endless war.
Quite. I desperately want Ukraine to win. But I see what I see
The MoD generally adopts a positive attitude to the Ukrainian cause. Here is its latest map of the front lines. This does not scream “imminent pivotal breakthrough” to me
Of course that blogger upthread might be right and Ukraine is doing much better than this under the radar. Let’s hope so
The latter's most recent update says that 0.01% of Ukraine has been freed since the end of may2023. Which is not good.
I am not so concerned (although hardly relaxed!) about the situation. The advance south of Orkhiv is proceeding and may hit the coast by next year. Leon's point about manpower is true but countries can and do do this. It is a WW1 war, not a Desert Storm war: progress is slow, casualties are high, the grind grinds. This war will continue for years (my head canon says 2022-2025). Talk of a breakthrough, although pleasant, should be resisted because unpredictable.
Putin will be digging in waiting for Trump to rescue him.
He’s already done that. The problem for the Russians is that they can’t stop the Ukrainian advances completely. And the Russians can’t build an infinite number of defence lines.
The problem with this indictment is that it should have come 18 months ago so that we were already at, or even past, the trial. The delays mean that what we have are serious allegations but no proven facts or findings. This gives Trump's supporters some wriggle room. Already they talk about the weaponization of the justice system and make out they are the victims.
The US constitution, which does not deserve 1% of the praise lavished upon it, has once again been found wanting. It assumes that the President will act honourably, or, if not, Congress and the Senate will act honourably to uphold the rule of law. They didn't and they should be ashamed but, of course, they are not.
US justice is hugely expensive and moves ridiculously slowly. In my area, a single patent infringement suit can take well over a decade to get to a final outcome - first instance, then appeal after appeal after appeal, there always seems to be another angle. It bankrupts many people and makes makes a few very rich!
Litigation is simply a tool of those with the deepest pockets. The problem with such a system is that the merits of the case become almost irrelevant.
The problem with this indictment is that it should have come 18 months ago so that we were already at, or even past, the trial. The delays mean that what we have are serious allegations but no proven facts or findings. This gives Trump's supporters some wriggle room. Already they talk about the weaponization of the justice system and make out they are the victims.
The US constitution, which does not deserve 1% of the praise lavished upon it, has once again been found wanting. It assumes that the President will act honourably, or, if not, Congress and the Senate will act honourably to uphold the rule of law. They didn't and they should be ashamed but, of course, they are not.
US justice is hugely expensive and moves ridiculously slowly. In my area, a single patent infringement suit can take well over a decade to get to a final outcome - first instance, then appeal after appeal after appeal, there always seems to be another angle. It bankrupts many people and makes makes a few very rich!
Mostly it’s the lawyers who end up rich, with everyone else involved bankrupt.
Welcome to retirement, those who have announced it today. It’s been great for me and mine; we were able to get about and do all sorts of things. Sadly, while the spirit is still winning, my flesh, at least, is weak! It’s not easy to go in, and visit people iand places anymore; they have to come to me! Fortunately, discussion pages such as this represents something of a lifeline!
And may you continue to enliven this one for many years yet old friend.
Edit - just realised the ‘old’ is potentially ambiguous - I meant in the sense of longstanding…
Trump seems to get indicted all the time. This seems a weak example of the breed, because it deals with events that have already taken place in public, and which everyone has their own opinion on. A court verdict calling Trump a conspirator (or whatever) is not going to move anyone's opinion on this, or Trump, at all.
A very odd statement.
You're right that it won't move opinion one iota, but that it deals with events which took place in public doesn't mean crimes were not potentially committed.
It's also not true because the charges rely on reams of behind the scenes comments and reporting to indicate the actions in public were part of a scheme he knew was based on false info. Agree with it or not it is based on testimony we did not see in public.
It doesn't look as strong to me as the documents indictment, but stronger than the NY hush money case.
I don't get the delay in Georgia - that really looks like pressuring electoral officials in a way which should be illegal if it is not, and a simple call if it meets whatever standard there us, but no decision yet.
The problem with this indictment is that it should have come 18 months ago so that we were already at, or even past, the trial. The delays mean that what we have are serious allegations but no proven facts or findings. This gives Trump's supporters some wriggle room. Already they talk about the weaponization of the justice system and make out they are the victims.
The US constitution, which does not deserve 1% of the praise lavished upon it, has once again been found wanting. It assumes that the President will act honourably, or, if not, Congress and the Senate will act honourably to uphold the rule of law. They didn't and they should be ashamed but, of course, they are not.
US justice is hugely expensive and moves ridiculously slowly. In my area, a single patent infringement suit can take well over a decade to get to a final outcome - first instance, then appeal after appeal after appeal, there always seems to be another angle. It bankrupts many people and makes makes a few very rich!
Litigation is simply a tool of those with the deepest pockets. The problem with such a system is that the merits of the case become almost irrelevant.
Yep - especially now injunctions are almost non-existent in patent lawsuits. If you are a deep pocket corporation, you can infringe with impunity. Apple is a prime example.
Newsflash: I am one of the many cyclists who make up the supposedly 10,000/day bikes along the Embankment. Absolutely tipping it down today and I had only half the right clothes. And even when I'm suited up days like these are miserable on a bike.
When people advocate for increased cycle usage in the UK they really do need to do it in conjunction with the British Meteorogical Office and a cold hard (and wet) dose of reality. They need to understand that a huge number of people are simply not going to get on a bike in these or, frankly, any other conditions.
Oh here we go!
I had a look at the cycle stats for Amsterdam and they hardly vary with weather. In Edinburgh, on a monthly basis, there isn't much seasonal variation either.
We shouldn't have started from there but that's all we have.
Trying to get the UK to be a cycling culture = trying to get the UK to be a cafe culture.
I fled to Sidmouth - ok, Exmouth - upon the partial relaxation of lockdown in April 2021.
A massive amount of potential but the seafront felt kind of elderly and tatty.
Shame about the unsightly caravan park at Sandy Bay, which in an ideal world would be protected landscape.
I heard a lot of Brummie down there and it dawned on me that it was essentially the nearest coast to Birmingham (apart from South Wales maybe?)
That honour traditionally goes to Weston-super-Mud. Whether it's geographically quite the closest, or just because of the main road, I don't remember.
Now Weston's a proper dump.
The Exmouth to Starcross ferry is nice, as is Starcross itself.
I would have thought Rhyl and Prestatyn in North Wales would be next closest after Weston. Certainly for the northern parts of the West Midlands, Sutton Coldfield and Walsall.
North Wales is essentially a littoral colony of Liverpool.
Brummies own mid-Wales, but there’s no easily accessible beach. It’s all about getting on the M5 for the denizens of Motor City.
What an ignorant comment from someone who constantly talks down Britain
Trump is acting like a mad gang boss with a personal vendetta and Americans are crazy enough to re-elect him. The Vox pops from Trump rallies are so full of delusional conspiracy stuff that 4 more years of Trump are a nightmare that looks likely to happen.
I don't bet much on American politics because it is too bonkers to predict. It would be fun if it didn't matter, but it does.
Yep, to unite the two threads on here currently - Putin knows he just has to wait for a Trump presidential election victory and the entire picture changes. And Trump has a great chance to win. Biden is a decent to good president, he will be an utterly disastrous candidate.
All those saying they're as bad as each other will never admit how important Biden has been to helping Ukraine fend off Putin. And they’ll blame France and Germany when Trump scales US involvement back.
But the blame game won’t change the facts on the ground. Without substantial and continued US aid, Ukraine will be on the back foot very quickly. That will have massive implications for all of us, while emboldening China in East Asia generally and with regards to Taiwan specifically.
Morning SO
just noticed from yesterday, have you moved to Devon permanently or are you just on hols ?
Greetings AB. Semi-retired now and living the good life in Sidmouth, where my wife and I have lowered the average age considerably! Back in Leamington quite a bit, though, to see the kids. Hope all is well with you!
Nice area, the Triassic-and-Jurassic coast.
Great walking country.
It is. We were down there some months back - not as far west as Sidmouth though, only as far as the Axe estuary (the tram ride through the birdy area being a regular treat when we go there, and I see one can get off in the middle of nowhere and birdwatch till the next tram). The newish Jurassic coast bus service looks very helpful for walkers though we didn't need it this time as it happens.
I thought that bus service had been cut. A few have been recently. The buses don't run to Lyme Regis from Sidmouth anymore, which is a big shame as I'd planned to do the SW Coast Path walk from there back to base.
Shame. It is a rather literal interpretation of Jurassic in the current circs, on checking - does go to Axminster. We did some time back use the Seaton-Lyme bus for a walk through the Landslip[ in between, and a quick check suggests it's still there and connects with the Sidmouth-Seaton one.
From the NYT. This does not sound like “winning”, from a Ukrainian perspective
“For the last two months, as Ukrainian troops have tried to break through Russian defenses in a broad counteroffensive to seize back occupied terrain in southern Ukraine, their units have run into dense minefields and heavy Russian artillery fire and drone attacks.
“Each mile is a bloody fight as the counteroffensive has progressed painfully slowly, with units coming up against dug-in Russian defenses and taking heavy casualties. Troops spearheading the offensive have breached the first line of defense in areas in recent days, potentially opening the way for a deeper assault.
“Positioned close to the front lines, the stabilization points, temporary medical posts where patients are stabilized for onward evacuation, have been receiving a constant inflow of soldiers wounded in the fighting. The numbers have been “colossal,” said a medic from the center where the three men from the 110th Brigade were treated.”
So where does this go. Stalemate while the west ships in more arms and hope for a breakthrough ? Peace negotiations and some compromise ?
Ideally we would all like a swift Ukrainian win and Russia to replace Putin with someone less malign. That seems increasingly unlikely.
The counter offensive could ultimately work; it is too early to conclude it has failed. If it doesn't then the likely outcome is a negotiated stalemate. I don't believe that the current government in Russia could agree a compromise/peace deal. There are some advantages of a stalemate instead of a 'peace deal' - mainly that Ukraine can maintain its readiness to defend itself, rather than relying on dubious 'assurances' from Russia.
A agreed stalemate seems likely to me. A muddy armistice
@Sandpit is right that the Ukrainians have no desire to cede an inch of territory to the Russians. The trouble is Ukraine is simply running out of soldiers. If the men dying in the trenches are in their 50s - even late 50s - that is BAD
I fear an exhausted Ukraine will be forced to agree a truce over the winter which may then extend for many months or years as both sides regroup. Russia will keep most of what it’s got - Russify it - and count it as a bloody victory
It ain’t pretty. But that’s my guess
And that will lead to the same thing happening in five years, with Ukraine being invaded again under some pathetic excuse. Putin, and people like him in Russia, want Ukraine.
From the NYT. This does not sound like “winning”, from a Ukrainian perspective
“For the last two months, as Ukrainian troops have tried to break through Russian defenses in a broad counteroffensive to seize back occupied terrain in southern Ukraine, their units have run into dense minefields and heavy Russian artillery fire and drone attacks.
“Each mile is a bloody fight as the counteroffensive has progressed painfully slowly, with units coming up against dug-in Russian defenses and taking heavy casualties. Troops spearheading the offensive have breached the first line of defense in areas in recent days, potentially opening the way for a deeper assault.
“Positioned close to the front lines, the stabilization points, temporary medical posts where patients are stabilized for onward evacuation, have been receiving a constant inflow of soldiers wounded in the fighting. The numbers have been “colossal,” said a medic from the center where the three men from the 110th Brigade were treated.”
Current Ukrainian casualties, compared to Russian, are estimated at 1:1. That’s a good ratio for an attacker.
Yes, it is and it reflects their superior kit and training. But Ukraine cannot maintain that ratio indefinitely. The theory was that Russia would crack, that their logistics would collapse, that we would see the same sort of progress that we did last year. None of this has happened.
We also had many people criticising the "stupidity" of the Russians leaving their defensive lines and engaging in battles in their minefields. That has proven to be exactly the right tactics, effectively removing the advantage that modern western tanks could give Ukraine and forcing them back to brutal infantry attacks.
It is still possible that there is a sudden collapse. I hope so. Time is running out for Ukraine.
Think how long it took the Allies to fight through Normandy, with all their advantages. (casualty rates were as bad as Autumn 1918). No one should expect easy victories.
London is going to be 16C max with torrential cold downpours this weekend
I think I prefer missiles
You over-egg an otherwise fair point - 21°C according to the Met Office on Friday and Sunday, but still poor for August.
21C is actually the long term August average max for Southern England. But we just forget how crap our historical climate is.
23°C is the August average daily max for London.
2 things:
1. "Southern England" - not London. The mean maxes for August at Heathrow or Northolt are around 1C higher than other stations in the region, as well as the Met Office S/SE England regional mean. 2. The 1961-90 average which is the one against which warming is measured is significantly lower than the latest (1991-2020) mean. Heathrow is 22C for August in 1961-90 and somewhere like Odiham for example is 20.6C for the same period.
Comments
just noticed from yesterday, have you moved to Devon permanently or are you just on hols ?
It fits his psyche perfectly.
I note that it's the Democrats that are calling for the Congressional report to be published.
The Republicans seem less enthusiastic, as the lack of evidence might detract from their rhetoric.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kqa9Mg2YdiY
The niece of the President of the Somalian Athletics Federation is “unexpectedly” selected for an athletics championship
https://twitter.com/egaraad_/status/1686362369306288128?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
You see this with some types of materials. You see it with the finances of individuals, companies and countries. We have seen it with the Russian Army, and I hope we will see it again.
It's impossible for us to know whether the Russians are a few days from breaking, weeks, months, or longer. We would be seeing similar things now in whichever case.
All I would say is that we have seen the Russians realise they are nearing their limit before, and they have retreated - from around Kyiv and the north and from the right bank - and we have seen the Russians surprised and the Ukrainians achieve a breakthrough - as at Kharkiv.
So there is every reason to expect that the Ukrainians can be successful again, and it is far too soon to panic.
A massive amount of potential but the seafront felt kind of elderly and tatty.
Shame about the unsightly caravan park at Sandy Bay, which in an ideal world would be protected landscape.
I heard a lot of Brummie down there and it dawned on me that it was essentially the nearest coast to Birmingham (apart from South Wales maybe?)
I think I prefer missiles
As for your last somewhat incoherent and illogical paragraph, put differently you are saying that should something not be exactly like your memories of a riot in Ulster it must not be a riot and therefore can't be a coup.
We call that 'chopping logic.' I think as one of the two people most affected on here by this phenomenon perhaps you could tell us?
Question though: say he is convicted, put in jail, still wins the election, but cannot attend the inauguration. Does he still become president and thus able to pardon himself?
It seems clear that Ukraine will be an election issue next year, and a Trumpian promise to negotiate an end seems totally plausible and even popular.
American support for Ukraine seems “a mile wide and an inch deep”.
JFC.
“In Ukraine, a Surge in Amputations Reveals the Human Cost of Russia’s War:
Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have lost limbs since the start of the war, according to previously unreported estimates
wsj.com/articles/in-uk… via @WSJ”
https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1686336424499425281?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
https://twitter.com/scienceisstrat1/status/1686102436321128448
Fortunately I am prepared and have packed my subtly patriotic blue, white and red shawl.
Nice one.
How would it work for a tenement? A big one stuck on the roof for all of us?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kqa9Mg2YdiY
It's a bit laboured but in summary: Pence (allegedly) will be called to testify that Trump asked him to reject certain states' electoral college votes. When Pence refused, Trump told him "You're too honest", which shows Trump knew the there was no justification to reject those votes.
I think.
Now Weston's a proper dump.
The Exmouth to Starcross ferry is nice, as is Starcross itself.
www.deepstatemap.com
https://nitter.net/War_mapper
The latter's most recent update says that 0.01% of Ukraine has been freed since the end of may2023. Which is not good.
I am not so concerned (although hardly relaxed!) about the situation. The advance south of Orkhiv is proceeding and may hit the coast by next year. Leon's point about manpower is true but countries can and do do this. It is a WW1 war, not a Desert Storm war: progress is slow, casualties are high, the grind grinds. This war will continue for years (my head canon says 2022-2025). Talk of a breakthrough, although pleasant, should be resisted because unpredictable.
The US constitution, which does not deserve 1% of the praise lavished upon it, has once again been found wanting. It assumes that the President will act honourably, or, if not, Congress and the Senate will act honourably to uphold the rule of law. They didn't and they should be ashamed but, of course, they are not.
An indictment isnt a conviction unless youve decided hes guilty until proven innocent, which in its own way demonstrates the madness of a politicised justice system.
As for your second point Trump is like Brexit , people are so partisan about it they only eve believe one line of propaganda. There is very little room for standing back and looking at things in the round.
The democrats won the popular vote in the last 2 elections and on that basis should win the next one but as Ive said theyve opened Pandoras box so anything could happen.
I was massively impressed with Topsham.
That probably marks me down in some obscure code of etiquette.
It’s great countryside, like much of the UK.
Its preservation among one of the densest populations in the world is one of the greatest but most undersung achievements of the last 100 years.
When people advocate for increased cycle usage in the UK they really do need to do it in conjunction with the British Meteorogical Office and a cold hard (and wet) dose of reality. They need to understand that a huge number of people are simply not going to get on a bike in these or, frankly, any other conditions.
https://bhesco.co.uk/heat-pumps-block-flats-brighton-hove-sussex#:~:text=In blocks of flats where,for an external fan unit.
The inauguration is ceremonial, if he wins the election he takes office automatically on whatever the specified date is. He can take the oath of office in prison.
I came across this chap recently when reading about the Tr-Jurassic coast - Vaughan Cornish. Instrumental in helping preserve scenery in general and in Sidmouth in particular.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/621720
I’ll admit it is tipping it down right now though.
I had a look at the cycle stats for Amsterdam and they hardly vary with weather. In Edinburgh, on a monthly basis, there isn't much seasonal variation either.
That seems to apply to general supporters as well, given a bunch of them don't try to excuse January 6th they practically call the rioters heroes.
Hopefully independents have seen his true colours, but how many of the 1 in 4 or 5 GOP voters who are against him won't vote for him? People who stood up to him trying to overturn the election are still voting for him!
You can blithely say “the war will continue until 2025” but I reckon Ukraine cannot sustain this for more than another few months. Not at this level of attrition and loss
It’s basic maths. Ukraine has a population ~35m (when you factor in refugees and others that have fled). Russia’s is 140m. Russia is four times bigger and with a much larger economy and equivalent air power etc
The west has pumped in squillions in aid and materiel but in the end if you run out of soldiers that’s it
Brummies own mid-Wales, but there’s no easily accessible beach. It’s all about getting on the M5 for the denizens of Motor City.
That's why the indictment really hammers home how many times he was told by people who worked for him that various claims were untrue, sometimes mere hours before repeating them. Only a few quotes from him admitting he had list though, more would have helped.
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/23693500.several-sussex-seats-non-priority-labour-election/
This is an interesting article by the BBC in Scotland on the politics and practicality of heat pumps
BBC News - Are Scotland's heat pump plans threatening to boil over?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-66372469
Meanwhile, the weather now
There is extensive evidence of his pressuring state officials to help overturn the election on the basis of voter fraud, while knowing that there was no evidence of any such fraud (as multiple White House officials testify).
Read the indictment -
https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2023/08/trump-indictment.pdf
We also had many people criticising the "stupidity" of the Russians leaving their defensive lines and engaging in battles in their minefields. That has proven to be exactly the right tactics, effectively removing the advantage that modern western tanks could give Ukraine and forcing them back to brutal infantry attacks.
It is still possible that there is a sudden collapse. I hope so. Time is running out for Ukraine.
As for psywar, the first impression is that the Russian strength in this domain that was so evident during the election of Trump in 2016 (and pro Brexit before then) has NOT been evident during this war. Even the TASS website is crap, and you wonder whether the Russian state is making much of an effort. And this is while there's wall to wall pro-Zelensky propaganda in the media in a country like Britain. BUT THEN YOU WONDER whether the Wagner mutiny of June 2023 wasn't a Russian state operation. I'm beginning to think it may well have been, and that Putin and Prigozhin are working as one to pull our plonkers.
Then regarding the Ukraine it's curious that all the opposition in that country during 2013-14 to pro-EU policy (which was the form that the westernising line then took, rather than pro-NATO) just all of a sudden disappeared in the night, having been nothing more (if anybody believes Wikipedia) than the product of Russian foreigners handing out 50 or 100 US dollars (sic) to pay people to hold anti-Maidan banners, when they weren't bussing themselves in to go on demos pretending to be from Ukraine. The reason I mention this is that when Zelensky's star falls it could fall very fast. He was elected in the Yes Minister election of 2019 but looking at the f***ing disaster that this stooge's term in office has been, that may turn out to be a trick he can only perform once. Incidentally there's martial law in Ukraine at the moment, and although the next presidential election is supposed to be held in 2024 the consty-tooshun doesn't allow presidential elections to be held during martial law.
Not that this is much cause for optimism that the war will end within a year or two, which seems unlikely. It's scary to try to look at it from a neo-Nazi point of view, imagining that one is a neo-Nazi either of Utkin's ilk or Azov's. War war war is what these tattooed would-be incels love most of all, and by f*** if you look at the territories haven't they done well since 2014...and they may well be assuming that their field of operations will expand. Indeed Utkin has explicitly said this, and in a more scary way than Kadyrov saying ha ha we're going to Poland next. Watch Belarus. Won't be surprising if a NATO country gets seriously destabilised too,
Sadly, while the spirit is still winning, my flesh, at least, is weak! It’s not easy to go in, and visit people iand places anymore; they have to come to me!
Fortunately, discussion pages such as this represents something of a lifeline!
There are stories abound of people who have been held on remand for two years but don’t know with what offences they’ve been charged, and there’s one weird story of a guy called Ray Epps, who was seen encouraging the crowds but was for a long time treated as a witness rather than a suspect. His lawyer blames Fox News, after the news station was handed CCTV of him from that day, and it’s also been alleged that Epps is either an FBI informant, or working with authorities in some way.
Meanwhile, other protagonists took a plea deal (a horrible idea in a justice system), served their time and are back out again, and others were found not guilty after CCTV emerged of them being let in past a cordon by police on duty.
I suspect that the idea was always to try and make sure that Trump was charged with something, which has now happened, but there’s still way more questions than answers two years later.
There are more registered Democrats than registered Republicans,
The number of people who identify with and declare themselves as Independent voters is second next to Democrats. What might be surprising to many people is that the overall number of people who claim affiliation with the Independent party is usually more than those who declare themselves as either Democrat or Republican.
Trump has a fanatical base, that is more akin to a cult than a political party, but they comprise 'only' about 30% of the electorate.
Edit - just realised the ‘old’ is potentially ambiguous - I meant in the sense of longstanding…
You're right that it won't move opinion one iota, but that it deals with events which took place in public doesn't mean crimes were not potentially committed.
It's also not true because the charges rely on reams of behind the scenes comments and reporting to indicate the actions in public were part of a scheme he knew was based on false info. Agree with it or not it is based on testimony we did not see in public.
It doesn't look as strong to me as the documents indictment, but stronger than the NY hush money case.
I don't get the delay in Georgia - that really looks like pressuring electoral officials in a way which should be illegal if it is not, and a simple call if it meets whatever standard there us, but no decision yet.
Trying to get the UK to be a cycling culture = trying to get the UK to be a cafe culture.
Ain't gonna happen.
1. "Southern England" - not London. The mean maxes for August at Heathrow or Northolt are around 1C higher than other stations in the region, as well as the Met Office S/SE England regional mean.
2. The 1961-90 average which is the one against which warming is measured is significantly lower than the latest (1991-2020) mean. Heathrow is 22C for August in 1961-90 and somewhere like Odiham for example is 20.6C for the same period.