Tim Montgomerie is right about this Sunak Tweet – politicalbetting.com
When you get the CONHome founder, Tim Montgomerie, raising concerns about a Tory PM’s Tweet then Number 10 should take this seriously. This is unbecoming for a PM.
On the other thread ... as I keep pointing out to @MikeSmithson and which he routinely ignores, you cannot, or should not, take GE2019 as the benchmark. It was a unique election to 'Get Brexit Done'.
Go back to June 2017 which was the last proper General Election and it resulted in a hung parliament. Then see how those who voted Conservative in 2017 are now saying they will vote.
That's the real litmus.
In many ways, December 2019 was not a General Election, at least not a true or accurate one. Punters be warned!
Seeing it in 4P (purely partisan political perspective), I welcome Sunak going into the gutter. It looks and sounds desperate. He cannot do it authentically, so will repel far more voters than he wins over.
Where are new railway stations being built, or revamped now?
The South East Region used the same steel frame - concrete panel system used in Notts for our schools, which have a design life ending around 2020-2040. Are they all being rebuilt?
I wonder how much of the KCC cash contribution to Thanet Station came from the surrounding housing developers.
I know they replaced Rochester station in 2015 with a brand new one about 200 metres closer to London. But not sure if was because of design life.
Here's an example of the look, which is .. functional.
Where are new railway stations being built, or revamped now?
The South East Region used the same steel frame - concrete panel system used in Notts for our schools, which have a design life ending around 2020-2040. Are they all being rebuilt?
I wonder how much of the KCC cash contribution to Thanet Station came from the surrounding housing developers.
I know they replaced Rochester station in 2015 with a brand new one about 200 metres closer to London. But not sure if was because of design life.
Here's an example of the look, which is .. functional.
'Unbecoming from a PM' needn't mean 'This is crap' - could be Mr Montgomerie thinking Mr Sunak is an idiot for not letting the petty Tory activists and media executives and journos of this world do it for him, but otherwise, great stuff.
On the other thread ... as I keep pointing out to @MikeSmithson and which he routinely ignores, you cannot, or should not, take GE2019 as the benchmark. It was a unique election to 'Get Brexit Done'.
Go back to June 2017 which was the last proper General Election and it resulted in a hung parliament. Then see how those who voted Conservative in 2017 are now saying they will vote.
That's the real litmus.
In many ways, December 2019 was not a General Election, at least not a true or accurate one. Punters be warned!
You make a good point, but does anyone track current VI compared with how people voted in 2017?
The next GE campaign is going to be a shitshow isn't it?
It's going to be 15 months of this assuming an October 2024 poll.
It does feel like we all need one of those wartime back channels where combatants (who definitely aren't negotiating, and are otherwise tearing lumps out of each other) agree to leave some weapons on the shelf. It means a repudiation of the Cummings doctrine (winning is the only thing, even if what you win is an irradiated wasteland), but somehow that has to happen.
O/T I know several people were trying to top up their NI contributions before the 31 July Deadline. I've just seen this on our local Citizens Advice e-news:
Deadline to pay voluntary National Insurance (NI) Contributions to increase State Pension extended: New regulations extend the deadline for paying voluntary class 3 NI contributions for the period 2006 to 2016, and for the 2016/17 and 2017/18 tax years. The deadline had already been extended to 31 July 2023 and will now be 5 April 2025.
O/T I know several people were trying to top up their NI contributions before the 31 July Deadline. I've just seen this on our local Citizens Advice e-news:
Deadline to pay voluntary National Insurance (NI) Contributions to increase State Pension extended: New regulations extend the deadline for paying voluntary class 3 NI contributions for the period 2006 to 2016, and for the 2016/17 and 2017/18 tax years. The deadline had already been extended to 31 July 2023 and will now be 5 April 2025.
Just as well. There is still a need to phone up both HMRC and Pension Service to double check all round as the bloody online stuff listing your contribs and pension forecast doesn't actually say if buying added years is actually worth it (and how to deal with complications like being contracted out for some of your career, or income from casual work or rental if one is otherwise not employed and had not paid NI). It's no good knowing that it costs £824 to pay for a year if it doesn't actually do you any good.
The next GE campaign is going to be a shitshow isn't it?
It's going to be 15 months of this assuming an October 2024 poll.
It does feel like we all need one of those wartime back channels where combatants (who definitely aren't negotiating, and are otherwise tearing lumps out of each other) agree to leave some weapons on the shelf. It means a repudiation of the Cummings doctrine (winning is the only thing, even if what you win is an irradiated wasteland), but somehow that has to happen.
That's a really good and civilized idea. So it won't happen. ☹️
To pick up on the sting operation that Sunak has woven into an attack on Labour
For the previous eternity* it seems the immigration debate was entirely about how the Gov't was trying everything it could but running into stuff such as ... the law. Well now they've found those that should be providing a service within the system (Access to legal advice on immigration matters) are not simply providing legal advice to those who need it but ACTIVELY sabotaging the process. I have no idea how widespread this abuse is amongst immigration solicitors, but I think the penalties should probably go beyond disbarring by the SRA for it - it is effectively perverting the course of justice in immigration matters and should be dealt with as the courts would deal with any other perversion of the course of justice with the aggravating factor that solicitors are there to ensure fair process within the justice system. If Starmer wants to make a truly effective statement to counter Sunak's below the belt gloves off tweet series on all this he would be making the point that simply barring these solicitors via the SRA does not go nearly far enough.
Labour had a poster a few months ago accusing the PM of being in league with sex offenders to keep them out of jail, so they can hardly complain too much if Sunak accuses them of being in league with criminal migrant gangs
1300 arrivals in the last week. 2.5 barges worth. He is failing at his own target.
Sunak is becoming a nasty piece of work. I thought he was just tolerating Braverman out of weakness, but he actually seems to believe this crap.
Not sure why so many believed he was just tolerating. He could have given her any Cabinet post as a reward for backing him, he put her back in that position to be as nasty as possible by choicec, and she has delivered on that at least.
On this issue at least he's as hard right as they come.
Seeing it in 4P (purely partisan political perspective), I welcome Sunak going into the gutter. It looks and sounds desperate. He cannot do it authentically, so will repel far more voters than he wins over.
I half agree. I think it is absolutely authentic, but it is not very convincing, because it's a substitute for action and success so looks like a distraction. Because it is.
1300 arrivals in the last week. 2.5 barges worth. He is failing at his own target.
Sunak is becoming a nasty piece of work. I thought he was just tolerating Braverman out of weakness, but he actually seems to believe this crap.
A continuum of possibilities, from "actually believes this" to "doesn't believe this, but is happy for his name to be attached to it anyway". That's slightly separate from "doesn't want this but is a prisoner of the Braverman wing of the party" to "wants this but is happy for Braverman to front it".
Even the most charitable interpretation isn't that pleasing a prospect.
Seeing it in 4P (purely partisan political perspective), I welcome Sunak going into the gutter. It looks and sounds desperate. He cannot do it authentically, so will repel far more voters than he wins over.
I half agree. I think it is absolutely authentic, but it is not very convincing, because it's a substitute for action and success so looks like a distraction. Because it is.
It may be authentic - I suspect it probably is - but it doesn't sound it and it's definitely not Sunak's selling point. He looks and sounds ridiculous being an attack dog. He needs someone a lot better than him to do it. Grant Schapps seems to be up for it.
Seeing it in 4P (purely partisan political perspective), I welcome Sunak going into the gutter. It looks and sounds desperate. He cannot do it authentically, so will repel far more voters than he wins over.
I half agree. I think it is absolutely authentic, but it is not very convincing, because it's a substitute for action and success so looks like a distraction. Because it is.
It may be authentic - I suspect it probably is - but it doesn't sound it and it's definitely not Sunak's selling point. He looks and sounds ridiculous being an attack dog. He needs someone a lot better than him to do it. Grant Schapps seems to be up for it.
Labour had a poster a few months ago accusing the PM of being in league with sex offenders to keep them out of jail, so they can hardly complain too much if Sunak accuses them of being in league with criminal migrant gangs
If I were a Labour strategist I'd welcome it. He's drawing attention to an area of significant government failure and to a policy that is not going to work. The puzzle for me is why he's done it. Because Sunak has never actually met any ordinary people I suspect he thinks that Lee Anderson is a typical example.
Labour had a poster a few months ago accusing the PM of being in league with sex offenders to keep them out of jail, so they can hardly complain too much if Sunak accuses them of being in league with criminal migrant gangs
If I were a Labour strategist I'd welcome it. He's drawing attention to an area of significant government failure and to a policy that is not going to work. The puzzle for me is why he's done it. Because Sunak has never actually met any ordinary people I suspect he thinks that Lee Anderson is a typical example.
Anderson tries way too hard. He's like a parody of a tells it like it is Tory wet dream.
It's his gimmick, but it's as overdone as Rees-Mogg's faux patrician act - a kernel of truth, overblown to absurdity.
Seeing it in 4P (purely partisan political perspective), I welcome Sunak going into the gutter. It looks and sounds desperate. He cannot do it authentically, so will repel far more voters than he wins over.
I half agree. I think it is absolutely authentic, but it is not very convincing, because it's a substitute for action and success so looks like a distraction. Because it is.
It may be authentic - I suspect it probably is - but it doesn't sound it and it's definitely not Sunak's selling point. He looks and sounds ridiculous being an attack dog. He needs someone a lot better than him to do it. Grant Schapps seems to be up for it.
Sunak would be more plausible as a John Major figure trying his best, and being nice.
The Tories are aiming to be The Nasty Party again, and are going to get the beating that they deserve. I think they will do well to keep 150 seats, and sub 100 is very possible.
The government will also rue the day they declared war on bankers.
The chief executive of NatWest was tonight facing pressure from Downing Street, the chancellor and other senior cabinet ministers to resign after admitting she leaked private information about Nigel Farage’s finances to the BBC.
Dame Alison Rose said she made a “serious error of judgment” by having a conversation about Farage’s banking arrangements with Simon Jack, the BBC’s business editor, at a charity dinner.
Rose denied revealing any “personal financial information”, instead claiming that she inadvertently left the BBC reporter with the impression that Farage did not meet Coutts’s wealth threshold.
Seeing it in 4P (purely partisan political perspective), I welcome Sunak going into the gutter. It looks and sounds desperate. He cannot do it authentically, so will repel far more voters than he wins over.
I half agree. I think it is absolutely authentic, but it is not very convincing, because it's a substitute for action and success so looks like a distraction. Because it is.
It may be authentic - I suspect it probably is - but it doesn't sound it and it's definitely not Sunak's selling point. He looks and sounds ridiculous being an attack dog. He needs someone a lot better than him to do it. Grant Schapps seems to be up for it.
Deploy the Govester!
I suspect Gove wouldn't be up for it; partly because he is from the Notting Hill era of Conservatism, and also because, at this stage, what's in it for him? He has an obituary to think about.
The deeper question is who is the authentic Rishi Sunak anyway? There are plenty of decent people who are politically right of centre, even now. It was the tension at the heart of TMay's "Nasty Party" speech. But one reading of Sunak's statements and actions is that he sees himself as a self made man, entitled to worship his creator, slightly puzzled that we all haven't just set up hedge funds if we want to be wealthy.
Labour had a poster a few months ago accusing the PM of being in league with sex offenders to keep them out of jail, so they can hardly complain too much if Sunak accuses them of being in league with criminal migrant gangs
If I were a Labour strategist I'd welcome it. He's drawing attention to an area of significant government failure and to a policy that is not going to work. The puzzle for me is why he's done it. Because Sunak has never actually met any ordinary people I suspect he thinks that Lee Anderson is a typical example.
Anderson tries way too hard. He's like a parody of a tells it like it is Tory wet dream.
It's his gimmick, but it's as overdone as Rees-Mogg's faux patrician act - a kernel of truth, overblown to absurdity.
The government will also rue the day they declared war on bankers.
The chief executive of NatWest was tonight facing pressure from Downing Street, the chancellor and other senior cabinet ministers to resign after admitting she leaked private information about Nigel Farage’s finances to the BBC.
Dame Alison Rose said she made a “serious error of judgment” by having a conversation about Farage’s banking arrangements with Simon Jack, the BBC’s business editor, at a charity dinner.
Rose denied revealing any “personal financial information”, instead claiming that she inadvertently left the BBC reporter with the impression that Farage did not meet Coutts’s wealth threshold.
To pick up on the sting operation that Sunak has woven into an attack on Labour
For the previous eternity* it seems the immigration debate was entirely about how the Gov't was trying everything it could but running into stuff such as ... the law. Well now they've found those that should be providing a service within the system (Access to legal advice on immigration matters) are not simply providing legal advice to those who need it but ACTIVELY sabotaging the process. I have no idea how widespread this abuse is amongst immigration solicitors, but I think the penalties should probably go beyond disbarring by the SRA for it - it is effectively perverting the course of justice in immigration matters and should be dealt with as the courts would deal with any other perversion of the course of justice with the aggravating factor that solicitors are there to ensure fair process within the justice system. If Starmer wants to make a truly effective statement to counter Sunak's below the belt gloves off tweet series on all this he would be making the point that simply barring these solicitors via the SRA does not go nearly far enough.
Is it really news to people that immigration advisors/lawyers do whatever it takes to keep their clients in the country?
Back when I lived with someone doing that job, the stories were of how far people would bend the rules. And break them.
The classic of the genre was the violently homophobic guy told to pretend he was gay.
Seeing it in 4P (purely partisan political perspective), I welcome Sunak going into the gutter. It looks and sounds desperate. He cannot do it authentically, so will repel far more voters than he wins over.
I half agree. I think it is absolutely authentic, but it is not very convincing, because it's a substitute for action and success so looks like a distraction. Because it is.
It may be authentic - I suspect it probably is - but it doesn't sound it and it's definitely not Sunak's selling point. He looks and sounds ridiculous being an attack dog. He needs someone a lot better than him to do it. Grant Schapps seems to be up for it.
Sunak would be more plausible as a John Major figure trying his best, and being nice.
The Tories are aiming to be The Nasty Party again, and are going to get the beating that they deserve. I think they will do well to keep 150 seats, and sub 100 is very possible.
'Labour's Tax Bombshell', the poster Major authorised in 1992 which was key to destroying Kinnock's campaign?
Even in 1997 Major authorised a poster with Blair with demon eyes, remember 'New Labour, New Danger' even if he vetoed a PPB of Blair making a pact with the Devil.
Major was nice enough to ordinary people but could be as ruthless with his political opponents as any successful politician!
The surgeon who operated on Jonny Bairstow’s leg feared the England and Yorkshire wicketkeeper would never play professional cricket again because his injury was so severe.
Professor James Calder, an orthopaedic surgeon who specialises in foot and ankle injuries, says he was delighted that his fears proved unfounded, and paid tribute to Bairstow’s determination and rehabilitation in being able to return for the Ashes.
The 33-year-old suffered a freak injury after slipping on a golf course last September. He missed out on a lucrative Indian Premier League deal as a result but confounded many expectations by making England’s squad for the Test series against Australia, scoring a notable 99 not out at Old Trafford last week.
“I had severe reservations that he was going to play in the Ashes and even whether the injury was compatible with playing professional cricket,” Calder said. “He was adamant I was wrong and was destined to prove me wrong.
“He had a severe lower-leg fracture dislocation. Multiple bones were broken in his leg and his ankle as well as ligaments, and it was like putting Humpty Dumpty back together again. He had to have plates, pins, keyhole surgery and ligament stabilisation.
“I was worried about whether he was actually going to get back to playing, and then we needed every single stage of the recovery to be on the time mark to make it back for the Ashes.
“I thought it would be a nine-month or 12-month recovery but my concern was whether he was going to get the strength back, the range back, the coordination back, and whether you keep everything else in his body up to speed so he could actually play cricket.”
Labour had a poster a few months ago accusing the PM of being in league with sex offenders to keep them out of jail, so they can hardly complain too much if Sunak accuses them of being in league with criminal migrant gangs
If I were a Labour strategist I'd welcome it. He's drawing attention to an area of significant government failure and to a policy that is not going to work. The puzzle for me is why he's done it. Because Sunak has never actually met any ordinary people I suspect he thinks that Lee Anderson is a typical example.
Anderson tries way too hard. He's like a parody of a tells it like it is Tory wet dream.
It's his gimmick, but it's as overdone as Rees-Mogg's faux patrician act - a kernel of truth, overblown to absurdity.
That's the Sunak problem encapsulated. He does not realise this about Anderson because he has never spent any time with ordinary people. I suspect he does have Rees Mogg's measure, though.
Unpleasant from Rishi but understandable: he can't afford to lose any of the Daily Mail crowd to Coutts Man, but apart from the boat people and Starmer the lefty lawyer bogeyman what else does he have to offer them?
To pick up on the sting operation that Sunak has woven into an attack on Labour
For the previous eternity* it seems the immigration debate was entirely about how the Gov't was trying everything it could but running into stuff such as ... the law. Well now they've found those that should be providing a service within the system (Access to legal advice on immigration matters) are not simply providing legal advice to those who need it but ACTIVELY sabotaging the process. I have no idea how widespread this abuse is amongst immigration solicitors, but I think the penalties should probably go beyond disbarring by the SRA for it - it is effectively perverting the course of justice in immigration matters and should be dealt with as the courts would deal with any other perversion of the course of justice with the aggravating factor that solicitors are there to ensure fair process within the justice system. If Starmer wants to make a truly effective statement to counter Sunak's below the belt gloves off tweet series on all this he would be making the point that simply barring these solicitors via the SRA does not go nearly far enough.
Is it really news to people that immigration advisors/lawyers do whatever it takes to keep their clients in the country?
Back when I lived with someone doing that job, the stories were of how far people would bend the rules. And break them.
The classic of the genre was the violently homophobic guy told to pretend he was gay.
Your view, I otoh really don't know enough about this to make such a broad generalisation... BUT if it is the case then the penalties need to be severe as possible if sols are actually caught doing this so as to provide a deterrent affect.
Labour had a poster a few months ago accusing the PM of being in league with sex offenders to keep them out of jail, so they can hardly complain too much if Sunak accuses them of being in league with criminal migrant gangs
If I were a Labour strategist I'd welcome it. He's drawing attention to an area of significant government failure and to a policy that is not going to work. The puzzle for me is why he's done it. Because Sunak has never actually met any ordinary people I suspect he thinks that Lee Anderson is a typical example.
Anderson tries way too hard. He's like a parody of a tells it like it is Tory wet dream.
It's his gimmick, but it's as overdone as Rees-Mogg's faux patrician act - a kernel of truth, overblown to absurdity.
That's the Sunak problem encapsulated. He does not realise this about Anderson because he has never spent any time with ordinary people. I suspect he does have Rees Mogg's measure, though.
To be fair on Sunak, his parents are quite normal middle class folk. I have met them socially (his grandfather lives in Leicester).
He has just forgotten all those people when he sold his soul.
To pick up on the sting operation that Sunak has woven into an attack on Labour
For the previous eternity* it seems the immigration debate was entirely about how the Gov't was trying everything it could but running into stuff such as ... the law. Well now they've found those that should be providing a service within the system (Access to legal advice on immigration matters) are not simply providing legal advice to those who need it but ACTIVELY sabotaging the process. I have no idea how widespread this abuse is amongst immigration solicitors, but I think the penalties should probably go beyond disbarring by the SRA for it - it is effectively perverting the course of justice in immigration matters and should be dealt with as the courts would deal with any other perversion of the course of justice with the aggravating factor that solicitors are there to ensure fair process within the justice system. If Starmer wants to make a truly effective statement to counter Sunak's below the belt gloves off tweet series on all this he would be making the point that simply barring these solicitors via the SRA does not go nearly far enough.
Is it really news to people that immigration advisors/lawyers do whatever it takes to keep their clients in the country?
Back when I lived with someone doing that job, the stories were of how far people would bend the rules. And break them.
The classic of the genre was the violently homophobic guy told to pretend he was gay.
Your view, perhaps not mine BUT if it is the case then the penalties need to be severe as possible if sols are actually caught doing this so as to provide a deterrent affect.
How? What’s the need? It’s been like that since forever.
When Michael Howard was Home Sec, he caused a fuss by stopping one wizard wheeze. The lawyer would claim to the court that, say, West Germany was a death sentence for immigrants. This would require a report to be written that West Germany was in fact, a liberal democracy. Each time the claim was made, a new report had to be written. Time…. It took months to create the reports.
Howard pissed on the chips by changing the rules to say that reports on countries could be used for multiple cases.
The moral justification used for the fiddles was that *all* immigration restrictions are immoral, therefore any action is fair game.
Seeing it in 4P (purely partisan political perspective), I welcome Sunak going into the gutter. It looks and sounds desperate. He cannot do it authentically, so will repel far more voters than he wins over.
I half agree. I think it is absolutely authentic, but it is not very convincing, because it's a substitute for action and success so looks like a distraction. Because it is.
It may be authentic - I suspect it probably is - but it doesn't sound it and it's definitely not Sunak's selling point. He looks and sounds ridiculous being an attack dog. He needs someone a lot better than him to do it. Grant Schapps seems to be up for it.
Sunak would be more plausible as a John Major figure trying his best, and being nice.
The Tories are aiming to be The Nasty Party again, and are going to get the beating that they deserve. I think they will do well to keep 150 seats, and sub 100 is very possible.
'Labour's Tax Bombshell', the poster Major authorised in 1992 which was key to destroying Kinnock's campaign?
Even in 1997 Major authorised a poster with Blair with demon eyes, remember 'New Labour, New Danger' even if he vetoed a PPB of Blair making a pact with the Devil.
Major was nice enough to ordinary people but could be as ruthless with his political opponents as any successful politician!
When will your team be wheeling Savile out? It may be an immoral slur, but it's a winner.
Hang on. Everyone who knew anything was predicting a hung Parliament. Those aren't much different figures to the final opinion polls. PP/Vox on the cusp of a majority. And a serious miss on the PSOE vote strength, just like the rest.
Hang on. Everyone who knew anything was predicting a hung Parliament. Those aren't much different figures to the final opinion polls. PP/Vox on the cusp of a majority. And a serious miss on the PSOE vote strength, just like the rest.
In Spain no polls can be published for 6 days before an election, but if you look at the MRP swing from 7 July to 17 July, they did pick up a late swing to PSOE, that may well have continued.
Seeing it in 4P (purely partisan political perspective), I welcome Sunak going into the gutter. It looks and sounds desperate. He cannot do it authentically, so will repel far more voters than he wins over.
I half agree. I think it is absolutely authentic, but it is not very convincing, because it's a substitute for action and success so looks like a distraction. Because it is.
It may be authentic - I suspect it probably is - but it doesn't sound it and it's definitely not Sunak's selling point. He looks and sounds ridiculous being an attack dog. He needs someone a lot better than him to do it. Grant Schapps seems to be up for it.
Sunak would be more plausible as a John Major figure trying his best, and being nice.
The Tories are aiming to be The Nasty Party again, and are going to get the beating that they deserve. I think they will do well to keep 150 seats, and sub 100 is very possible.
'Labour's Tax Bombshell', the poster Major authorised in 1992 which was key to destroying Kinnock's campaign?
Even in 1997 Major authorised a poster with Blair with demon eyes, remember 'New Labour, New Danger' even if he vetoed a PPB of Blair making a pact with the Devil.
Major was nice enough to ordinary people but could be as ruthless with his political opponents as any successful politician!
Not that ruthless if he vetoed stuff, then. I do think the Tories need to decide though, as they didn't in 1997. Either Starmer is an existential threat to your way of life. Or he's a boring Centrist who won't change anything at all, so no point voting for him. He can't be both, as they attempted to paint Blair as. Seems like they're going for the former.
Hang on. Everyone who knew anything was predicting a hung Parliament. Those aren't much different figures to the final opinion polls. PP/Vox on the cusp of a majority. And a serious miss on the PSOE vote strength, just like the rest.
In Spain no polls can be published for 6 days before an election, but if you look at the MRP swing from 7 July to 17 July, they did pick up a late swing to PSOE, that may well have continued.
I'm a great fan of YouGov's MRP. But, being marginally less wrong than the others is only a relative success.
What do you think of Rishi's Tweet? As I recall you were outraged by Labour's wicked slur on Rishi. I agreed with you, it was unfortunate gutter politics.
Hang on. Everyone who knew anything was predicting a hung Parliament. Those aren't much different figures to the final opinion polls. PP/Vox on the cusp of a majority. And a serious miss on the PSOE vote strength, just like the rest.
In Spain no polls can be published for 6 days before an election, but if you look at the MRP swing from 7 July to 17 July, they did pick up a late swing to PSOE, that may well have continued.
I'm a great fan of YouGov's MRP. But, being marginally less wrong than the others is only a relative success.
In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king and all that.
Hang on. Everyone who knew anything was predicting a hung Parliament. Those aren't much different figures to the final opinion polls. PP/Vox on the cusp of a majority. And a serious miss on the PSOE vote strength, just like the rest.
In Spain no polls can be published for 6 days before an election, but if you look at the MRP swing from 7 July to 17 July, they did pick up a late swing to PSOE, that may well have continued.
I'm a great fan of YouGov's MRP. But, being marginally less wrong than the others is only a relative success.
On seat allocation, the unpublished YouGov MRP was actually pretty impressive when you look at it in blocs, which you probably should. They were three seats out for both the combined PP and Vox total and the PSOE and Sumar total.
What do you think of Rishi's Tweet? As I recall you were outraged by Labour's wicked slur on Rishi. I agreed with you, it was unfortunate gutter politics.
I was surprised, and putting both tweets into context, this is looking very much like the gloves are off as the fight for the next GE commences with 15 months to go
Maybe we need to accept that Uxbridge could well be a seminal point in the battle for votes, and certainly it has opened a new front on the costs and practicality of net zero, not so much for 2050 but definitely for 2030
The next GE campaign is going to be a shitshow isn't it?
It's going to be 15 months of this assuming an October 2024 poll.
It does feel like we all need one of those wartime back channels where combatants (who definitely aren't negotiating, and are otherwise tearing lumps out of each other) agree to leave some weapons on the shelf. It means a repudiation of the Cummings doctrine (winning is the only thing, even if what you win is an irradiated wasteland), but somehow that has to happen.
That's a really good and civilized idea. So it won't happen. ☹️
I think it's a wholly undemocratic and faintly sinister idea.
What do you think of Rishi's Tweet? As I recall you were outraged by Labour's wicked slur on Rishi. I agreed with you, it was unfortunate gutter politics.
I was surprised, and putting both tweets into context, this is looking very much like the gloves are off as the fight for the next GE commences with 15 months to go
Maybe we need to accept that Uxbridge could well be a seminal point in the battle for votes, and certainly it has opened a new front on the costs and practicality of net zero, not so much for 2050 but definitely for 2030
So it's OK if Rishi does it.
Is rowing back on the green agenda whilst the Greek Islands burn perfect timing?
We all know that you get dodgy lawyers and of course the criminal gangs are unarguable. However you can hardly blame lawyers for acting inside the law. Suggesting Labour are on the same side as criminal gangs? That's going a bit far.
You don't think it might be the Inflation Election??
Not as much as the cost of going green on the ordinary voter
I suspect most people will simply be asking whether they feel better off since the last election and whether the country is going in the right direction. For most the answer currently appears to be 'no' to both of those.
What do you think of Rishi's Tweet? As I recall you were outraged by Labour's wicked slur on Rishi. I agreed with you, it was unfortunate gutter politics.
I was surprised, and putting both tweets into context, this is looking very much like the gloves are off as the fight for the next GE commences with 15 months to go
Maybe we need to accept that Uxbridge could well be a seminal point in the battle for votes, and certainly it has opened a new front on the costs and practicality of net zero, not so much for 2050 but definitely for 2030
So it's OK if Rishi does it.
Is rowing back on the green agenda whilst the Greek Islands burn perfect timing?
Depends on how much voters are going to have to pay and neither Sunak or Starmer have excelled themselves recently in their tweets
You don't think it might be the Inflation Election??
Not as much as the cost of going green on the ordinary voter
I am not sure over the course of the next 18 months this is as big an issue as you suggest. Maybe more has been read from Uxbridge than was necessary.
That said after Uxbridge I am expecting much, much closer polls for the next couple of months. You are right Rishi played a blinder on Thursday and the hapless Starmer lost big, but does this issue have legs?
I don't know if this is accurate, but something the opposition could play with: If David Cameron hadn't "cut the green crap" from 2013 onwards, then over the past year…
💷UK energy bills would have been £9.8bn lower 🚢UK net gas imports would have been 23% lower ❤️🔥UK gas demand overall would have been 9% lower
As I posted earlier, this is going to be the dirtiest election campaign in many a year. Sunak's team are just warming up.
It's desperation.
The Tories’ weak point is legal migration. It might be completely cynical and hypocritical but it’s an open goal for Starmer.
Labour will fight as hard as the desperate tories judging by the infamous tweets about Sunak supporting law breaking or whatever it was the other week.
You don't think it might be the Inflation Election??
Not as much as the cost of going green on the ordinary voter
I am not sure over the course of the next 18 months this is as big an issue as you suggest. Maybe more has been read from Uxbridge than was necessary.
That said after Uxbridge I am expecting much, much closer polls for the next couple of months. You are right Rishi played a blinder on Thursday and the hapless Starmer lost big, but does this issue have legs?
Only time will tell who wins the arguments but I am not expecting the polls to change much
What do you think of Rishi's Tweet? As I recall you were outraged by Labour's wicked slur on Rishi. I agreed with you, it was unfortunate gutter politics.
I was surprised, and putting both tweets into context, this is looking very much like the gloves are off as the fight for the next GE commences with 15 months to go
Maybe we need to accept that Uxbridge could well be a seminal point in the battle for votes, and certainly it has opened a new front on the costs and practicality of net zero, not so much for 2050 but definitely for 2030
So it's OK if Rishi does it.
Is rowing back on the green agenda whilst the Greek Islands burn perfect timing?
Depends on how much voters are going to have to pay and neither Sunak or Starmer have excelled themselves recently in their tweets
What were Starmer's Tweets? I thought the unfortunate poster campaign was Labour Party derived propaganda not a personal slur from Starmer.
What do you think of Rishi's Tweet? As I recall you were outraged by Labour's wicked slur on Rishi. I agreed with you, it was unfortunate gutter politics.
I was surprised, and putting both tweets into context, this is looking very much like the gloves are off as the fight for the next GE commences with 15 months to go
Maybe we need to accept that Uxbridge could well be a seminal point in the battle for votes, and certainly it has opened a new front on the costs and practicality of net zero, not so much for 2050 but definitely for 2030
I'm sorry Big_G but you are sadly deluded if you think net zero is going to sway many votes. Four polls conducted since Uxbridge have shown no movement; ULEZ was a local issue not a seminal moment.
What do you think of Rishi's Tweet? As I recall you were outraged by Labour's wicked slur on Rishi. I agreed with you, it was unfortunate gutter politics.
I was surprised, and putting both tweets into context, this is looking very much like the gloves are off as the fight for the next GE commences with 15 months to go
Maybe we need to accept that Uxbridge could well be a seminal point in the battle for votes, and certainly it has opened a new front on the costs and practicality of net zero, not so much for 2050 but definitely for 2030
So it's OK if Rishi does it.
Is rowing back on the green agenda whilst the Greek Islands burn perfect timing?
Depends on how much voters are going to have to pay and neither Sunak or Starmer have excelled themselves recently in their tweets
O/T Just booked a ticket to see Oppenheimer tomorrow night. Cinema already half-booked despite it being a Wednesday.
It was brilliant, but the IMAX in Edinburgh is far too loud for a Nolan film with lots of dialogue. Overwhelming, claustrophobic. Works better for something like Interstellar.
You don't think it might be the Inflation Election??
Not as much as the cost of going green on the ordinary voter
I am not sure over the course of the next 18 months this is as big an issue as you suggest. Maybe more has been read from Uxbridge than was necessary.
That said after Uxbridge I am expecting much, much closer polls for the next couple of months. You are right Rishi played a blinder on Thursday and the hapless Starmer lost big, but does this issue have legs?
Sunak played a blinder and only lost 2 out of 3 safe seats.
You don't think it might be the Inflation Election??
Not as much as the cost of going green on the ordinary voter
I am not sure over the course of the next 18 months this is as big an issue as you suggest. Maybe more has been read from Uxbridge than was necessary.
That said after Uxbridge I am expecting much, much closer polls for the next couple of months. You are right Rishi played a blinder on Thursday and the hapless Starmer lost big, but does this issue have legs?
Worth noting too that there was a big swing to Labour in Uxbridge, despite the seat being heavily squeezed in2019 by tactical voting.
A big enough swing to put Starmer in number 10 even under optimum anti-green circumstances.
You don't think it might be the Inflation Election??
Not as much as the cost of going green on the ordinary voter
I am not sure over the course of the next 18 months this is as big an issue as you suggest. Maybe more has been read from Uxbridge than was necessary.
That said after Uxbridge I am expecting much, much closer polls for the next couple of months. You are right Rishi played a blinder on Thursday and the hapless Starmer lost big, but does this issue have legs?
Worth noting too that there was a big swing to Labour in Uxbridge, despite the seat being heavily squeezed in2019 by tactical voting.
A big enough swing to put Starmer in number 10 even under optimum anti-green circumstances.
What do you think of Rishi's Tweet? As I recall you were outraged by Labour's wicked slur on Rishi. I agreed with you, it was unfortunate gutter politics.
I was surprised, and putting both tweets into context, this is looking very much like the gloves are off as the fight for the next GE commences with 15 months to go
Maybe we need to accept that Uxbridge could well be a seminal point in the battle for votes, and certainly it has opened a new front on the costs and practicality of net zero, not so much for 2050 but definitely for 2030
So it's OK if Rishi does it.
Is rowing back on the green agenda whilst the Greek Islands burn perfect timing?
Everyone is looking at Greece, but it seems as if an absolute catastrophe is unfolding in Sicily.
What do you think of Rishi's Tweet? As I recall you were outraged by Labour's wicked slur on Rishi. I agreed with you, it was unfortunate gutter politics.
I was surprised, and putting both tweets into context, this is looking very much like the gloves are off as the fight for the next GE commences with 15 months to go
Maybe we need to accept that Uxbridge could well be a seminal point in the battle for votes, and certainly it has opened a new front on the costs and practicality of net zero, not so much for 2050 but definitely for 2030
So it's OK if Rishi does it.
Is rowing back on the green agenda whilst the Greek Islands burn perfect timing?
Depends on how much voters are going to have to pay and neither Sunak or Starmer have excelled themselves recently in their tweets
Comments
Go back to June 2017 which was the last proper General Election and it resulted in a hung parliament. Then see how those who voted Conservative in 2017 are now saying they will vote.
That's the real litmus.
In many ways, December 2019 was not a General Election, at least not a true or accurate one. Punters be warned!
https://selmec.org.uk/assets/models/original-images/005240.jpg
Did he post anything which clarified this issue?
Deadline to pay voluntary National Insurance (NI) Contributions to increase State Pension extended: New regulations extend the deadline for paying voluntary class 3 NI contributions for the period 2006 to 2016, and for the 2016/17 and 2017/18 tax years. The deadline had already been extended to 31 July 2023 and will now be 5 April 2025.
Sunak is becoming a nasty piece of work. I thought he was just tolerating Braverman out of weakness, but he actually seems to believe this crap.
But it doesn't take the place of achievement entirely. Tough talk and nastiness can just look pathetic if it is cover for failure.
Plus there's the spiral effect - go down this road and we're America before you know it.
For the previous eternity* it seems the immigration debate was entirely about how the Gov't was trying everything it could but running into stuff such as ... the law. Well now they've found those that should be providing a service within the system (Access to legal advice on immigration matters) are not simply providing legal advice to those who need it but ACTIVELY sabotaging the process. I have no idea how widespread this abuse is amongst immigration solicitors, but I think the penalties should probably go beyond disbarring by the SRA for it - it is effectively perverting the course of justice in immigration matters and should be dealt with as the courts would deal with any other perversion of the course of justice with the aggravating factor that solicitors are there to ensure fair process within the justice system.
If Starmer wants to make a truly effective statement to counter Sunak's below the belt gloves off tweet series on all this he would be making the point that simply barring these solicitors via the SRA does not go nearly far enough.
Blimey!!
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/backlash-over-labour-ad-claiming-29651952.amp
On this issue at least he's as hard right as they come.
Even the most charitable interpretation isn't that pleasing a prospect.
It's his gimmick, but it's as overdone as Rees-Mogg's faux patrician act - a kernel of truth, overblown to absurdity.
The Tories are aiming to be The Nasty Party again, and are going to get the beating that they deserve. I think they will do well to keep 150 seats, and sub 100 is very possible.
Have the usual suspects been rending their garments the way they did over those Sunak posters from Labour?
The chief executive of NatWest was tonight facing pressure from Downing Street, the chancellor and other senior cabinet ministers to resign after admitting she leaked private information about Nigel Farage’s finances to the BBC.
Dame Alison Rose said she made a “serious error of judgment” by having a conversation about Farage’s banking arrangements with Simon Jack, the BBC’s business editor, at a charity dinner.
Rose denied revealing any “personal financial information”, instead claiming that she inadvertently left the BBC reporter with the impression that Farage did not meet Coutts’s wealth threshold.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/natwest-ceo-alison-rose-coutts-nigel-farage-row-2023-x8b66hckn
The deeper question is who is the authentic Rishi Sunak anyway? There are plenty of decent people who are politically right of centre, even now. It was the tension at the heart of TMay's "Nasty Party" speech. But one reading of Sunak's statements and actions is that he sees himself as a self made man, entitled to worship his creator, slightly puzzled that we all haven't just set up hedge funds if we want to be wealthy.
Way to make Farage sympathetic, bankers.
Back when I lived with someone doing that job, the stories were of how far people would bend the rules. And break them.
The classic of the genre was the violently homophobic guy told to pretend he was gay.
Even in 1997 Major authorised a poster with Blair with demon eyes, remember 'New Labour, New Danger' even if he vetoed a PPB of Blair making a pact with the Devil.
Major was nice enough to ordinary people but could be as ruthless with his political opponents as any successful politician!
Professor James Calder, an orthopaedic surgeon who specialises in foot and ankle injuries, says he was delighted that his fears proved unfounded, and paid tribute to Bairstow’s determination and rehabilitation in being able to return for the Ashes.
The 33-year-old suffered a freak injury after slipping on a golf course last September. He missed out on a lucrative Indian Premier League deal as a result but confounded many expectations by making England’s squad for the Test series against Australia, scoring a notable 99 not out at Old Trafford last week.
“I had severe reservations that he was going to play in the Ashes and even whether the injury was compatible with playing professional cricket,” Calder said. “He was adamant I was wrong and was destined to prove me wrong.
“He had a severe lower-leg fracture dislocation. Multiple bones were broken in his leg and his ankle as well as ligaments, and it was like putting Humpty Dumpty back together again. He had to have plates, pins, keyhole surgery and ligament stabilisation.
“I was worried about whether he was actually going to get back to playing, and then we needed every single stage of the recovery to be on the time mark to make it back for the Ashes.
“I thought it would be a nine-month or 12-month recovery but my concern was whether he was going to get the strength back, the range back, the coordination back, and whether you keep everything else in his body up to speed so he could actually play cricket.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jonny-bairstows-surgeon-feared-england-star-would-never-play-again-8rh20wsp0
He has just forgotten all those people when he sold his soul.
When Michael Howard was Home Sec, he caused a fuss by stopping one wizard wheeze. The lawyer would claim to the court that, say, West Germany was a death sentence for immigrants. This would require a report to be written that West Germany was in fact, a liberal democracy. Each time the claim was made, a new report had to be written. Time…. It took months to create the reports.
Howard pissed on the chips by changing the rules to say that reports on countries could be used for multiple cases.
The moral justification used for the fiddles was that *all* immigration restrictions are immoral, therefore any action is fair game.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-lawmakers-approve-effective-2035-ban-new-fossil-fuel-cars-2023-02-14/
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/267c16ca-2008-11ee-8078-28a1c749945a?shareToken=a2fe4f9095d7f14100e6c43574acd106
Is today's Tweet/X a dry run?
Everyone who knew anything was predicting a hung Parliament.
Those aren't much different figures to the final opinion polls.
PP/Vox on the cusp of a majority.
And a serious miss on the PSOE vote strength, just like the rest.
I did suggest 2019was the Brexit election but it seems 2024 may well be the climate change one
https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1683945762902749186?t=PW5NNZqzqr7lpqb1OMAhKQ&s=19
I do think the Tories need to decide though, as they didn't in 1997.
Either Starmer is an existential threat to your way of life. Or he's a boring Centrist who won't change anything at all, so no point voting for him.
He can't be both, as they attempted to paint Blair as.
Seems like they're going for the former.
But, being marginally less wrong than the others is only a relative success.
Sensible folk will tune out.
Maybe we need to accept that Uxbridge could well be a seminal point in the battle for votes, and certainly it has opened a new front on the costs and practicality of net zero, not so much for 2050 but definitely for 2030
Just booked a ticket to see Oppenheimer tomorrow night. Cinema already half-booked despite it being a Wednesday.
It’s hard to work out why, tho. As a comedy it’s not that funny. It has moments. As a drama it isn’t that dramatic
But it has highly likeable characters, a simple yet compelling story, truly great acting, and a weirdly good soundtrack (the Durutti Column? Really??)
8.7/10
It’s going to be interesting, if the next government wants to be more EU aligned.
Is rowing back on the green agenda whilst the Greek Islands burn perfect timing?
It's desperation.
Nowt surprises me anymore about this instinctively Trotskyite regime.
Dull vs Dull.
That said after Uxbridge I am expecting much, much closer polls for the next couple of months. You are right Rishi played a blinder on Thursday and the hapless Starmer lost big, but does this issue have legs?
If David Cameron hadn't "cut the green crap" from 2013 onwards, then over the past year…
💷UK energy bills would have been £9.8bn lower
🚢UK net gas imports would have been 23% lower
❤️🔥UK gas demand overall would have been 9% lower
https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1683766407618600961
The Tories are doomed, and rightly so.
I might go and watch it again at a normal cinema.
A big enough swing to put Starmer in number 10 even under optimum anti-green circumstances.