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Why the best value Mayoral bets are now on the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Why the best value Mayoral bets are now on the Tories – politicalbetting.com
In all the discussions over next year’s London Mayoral election hardly anybody is noting that things are very different because of changes Johnson made to the mayoral voting system when he was PM.
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There’s absolutely no limit to this transformation. X will be the platform that can deliver, well….everything. @elonmusk and I are looking forward to working with our teams and every single one of our partners to bring X to the world.
https://twitter.com/lindayacc/status/1683214311957594113
- they pick a popular celebrity candidate, of the kind that has such huge advantage in direct elections like this; and
- they recover significantly in national politics.
Boris won narrowly in 2008 when he had good name recognition and Labour were hugely unpopular nationally and in 2012, he was the incumbent, which gives a big advantage in being known.
So good luck to OGH but I'm not sure I'd take 7/1 for Susan Who?
Instead, they tried to stitch it up for some ex-Cameron SpAd, who got a #MeToo during the campaign, and they were left with Susan Who? At least, after the events of last week, she has one good issue on which to campaign, in the outer boroughs anyway.
None of the Mayors of London so far have primarily been identified by their party affiliation, in the public eye. Khan is the closest to a standard party candidate, but most people don’t regard him as Mr Labour.
While that would make sense if Musk were attempting to repair the damage he's done to Twitter (difficult, since he doesn't accept that), it's not immediately obvious to me what possible use she could be to a venture that is apparently trying to turn itself into a competitor for some of the biggest and best funded tech companies in the world - while loss making, and with a small fraction of their resources.
As proof of the emergency nature of the crisis they noted that “holidaymakers [at the airport] have been photographed anxiously studying the departure board”…
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/24/labour-vows-to-modernise-simplify-and-reform-gender-recognition-act
With China this time, Russia's participation in anything but destruction being over.
China sets out preliminary crewed lunar landing plan
https://spacenews.com/china-sets-out-preliminary-crewed-lunar-landing-plan/
And good morning
xx
The only thing that could threaten Labour is a serious independent candidacy. Which means (J) Corbyn. Even if he does stand, I’d think Khan the favourite.
@JustStop_Oil
The heatwave in Spain has already taken lives. Our government is fuelling climate-induced genocide and we must take action now.
https://twitter.com/JustStop_Oil/status/1679823098650980353
Chris Hanlon has filled out the paperwork to mount a coup against the first minister and is soliciting nominations online.
On Sunday he tweeted that he would give ordinary members more power to decide policy and break from a top-down style of leadership.
If Hanlon, secretary of the West Fife and Coastal Villages branch, receives 100 nominations, he would force the second leadership contest in the SNP in six months, following the bitter race to replace Nicola Sturgeon when she resigned in February.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snp-activist-plots-leadership-bid-as-discipline-breaks-down-xhj2qglgr
Sadiq has made a huge error with ulez. However, I suspect it will blow over and that he will be re-elected.
It ought to serve as a warning to Labour. It's during their third term in office that they will combine arrogance with fatigue.
History repeats itself. Has to. No one listens.
It's a bit of a storm in a teacup to be absolutely frank, affecting relatively few people who probably needed to get those cars replaced anyway. My brother's car, for instance, was nearly 20 years old.
It will blow over.
But it's a warning to Labour for sure.
Turing this into culture wars bullshit is so Donald Fucking Trump.
1) London needs cleaner air
2) Historically, the best way to achieve this is incrementally improving standards. As proven many times in many places
3) The “ULEZ policy”that was implemented was just one of a number of possible policies.
4) Not being impressed with 3) doesn’t mean opposing 1 & 2.
That’s the point. ULEZ may have allowed the Tories to hold on in Uxbridge, but there was still a substantial swing against them. The underlying unpopularity of the Conservatives is the bigger factor. Lay Hall.
The Conservatives took a deliberate turn to become the party of retired homeowners. In some ways that makes sense, but it has consequences.
Yes, the Chinese will have less bureaucracy to navigate once the decision is made, not constantly going back to the politicians for more money, to be spent in 100 specific towns, with fewer suppliers and partner agencies to deal with along the way (There’s 27 countries involved in Artemis), but going to the Moon is at least an order of magnitude more complicated than going to LEO.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program
Oh sorry, was that a verb not your nickname for Yousaf?
And they need to get the updated version up and running. The one they launched isn’t the version they need.
And the new launch tower that costs more than a rocket development project, by itself…
https://www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/mesut-oezil-graue-woelfe-tattoo-102.html
I cannot see Susan Hall winning the London mayoral contest unless something entirely unexpected happens to the labour vote
I think Scotland's SNP/Greens are heading for considerable unpopularity especially if the Greens policy of banning gas boilers comes into force in 2025
Apparently it will be a requirement to sell a home for it to comply with energy rating c but they are to change the formulae to ensure it cannot be achieved with a gas boiler.
The result will see all homes to either install a heat pump or electric heating to be saleable at a cost of 33 billion with approx 1.8 billion from the Scottish government
This, if approved, would be their poll tax and when added to their proposition to vastly increases council tax and higher rates of tax anyway compared to the rest of the UK, will the last person to leave please switch off the lights
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23670366.gas-boilers-set-penalised-energy-efficiency-overhaul/
Being first is, in that context, secondary.
*The Outer Space Treaty
FWIW, I can quite see "to useless" something catching on.
A humiliation for Vox and a personal disaster for PP leader Feijóo, who is going to struggle to retain control of a party that expected the process of forming a government to have begun today but has now learned that just being anti-Sánchez was not enough.
Now, we’re almost certainly heading for new elections in November or December, with Sánchez likely to be caretaker PM in the meantime. There is a narrow path to him forming a new government, if everything falls his way - but that is highly unlikely as its Catalan separatists, who also had a terrible night, that will decide.
Notable that despite the summer polling date turnout rose from 66% to 70%. The progressive Spain turned out to keep Vox out of power. There’s a lesson there for PP. But will they learn it? They are a party much like the 2019 Tories - one with a split personality, that took votes from former C’s and Vox supporters, from the centre and the far right. How do you keep such a coalition together if being anti-Sánchez is not enough?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AdtLxlttrHg
https://www.ft.com/content/b027a525-05b1-45fc-a2c2-f131d341bc6b
{I’ll get my coat. It’s the one with the spare mechanical arm in it}
I don't know much about London politics, but in a city where 46% of households don't have access to a car at all, I can't see how this can become an issue for Khan without a hysterical misinformation campaign from CCHQ. 90% of those cars are ULEZ compliant, so we are talking about less than 5% of households.
Car ownership is also strongly correlated with earnings and location. The people with cars are already likely to be voting Tory. You might find that non-ULEZ compliant cars are more likely to be owned by poorer drivers, but I'd guess this is still a very small number of possible labour voters.
There are some recent stats that suggest cycling had now overtaken driving in parts of central London, so like with all Pigou taxes, ULEZ will become a smaller issue going forward.
It was a slightly different story in the Basque Country, though. Radical separatist party Bildu beat the conservative nationalist PNV for the first time ever. That is seismic. The Basques have been much quieter than the Catalans over recent years, pretty content to enjoy the extensive autonomy they have. This is now going to change. Expect a lot more noise and close cooperation with the more radical elements of Catalan separatism.
Could you point out where in the article or policy it says that? Asking for a friend...
Also - they aren't banning gas boilers, just updating building regs to say that new builds can't have them. Most new builds in Edinburgh don't have boilers anyway.
In the particular case of Rhodes, has it ever had fires this large ?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/coutts-virtue-signalling-plan-had-one-flaw-the-bank-has-no-virtue-to-signal/ar-AA1eebzt?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=cea0260624074960a1ac89dfcf010618&ei=14
It's a similar issue to the "where to build houses?" one in a way. Something can be the right thing for the community as a whole, but some candidates are incentivised to oppose it tooth and nail.
The overall car taxation in London, on parking, congestion charge etc. is nothing if you can afford an EV. Otherwise you pay.
Now Europe burns as well. It does feel like an inflection
Apparently Angela Rayner was saying, was misquoted as saying, ULEZ is coming everywhere. An interesting point of debate for the next election looms.
I expect this to be the precursor of charging per mile as we move away from fuel duty on petrol.
2) therefore the policy is perfect.
3) therefore anyone who opposes us is scum
The nothing to see faction really need to point to a precedent.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/24/labour-vows-to-modernise-simplify-and-reform-gender-recognition-act
A lot of the households with non compliant cars are both incentived to turn out and switch.
As with VAT on private schools it makes no difference electorally that the majority support the policy, the switchers are nearly all on one side.
The gap between Khan and Bailey last time was 120,000 votes - a lot more than that will be impacted by ULEZ. If Corbyn joins the show it feels pretty tough for Khan to me. One quirk is that if Corbyn does join, it might prompt other high profile independents as not impossible the winning number could be in the mid twenties.
If the Tories want to oppose their own policy that's fine. But claiming - as some have - that this is "typical socialism" is painfully deluded. Perhaps Michael Green is a socialist?
Foreign Office minister Andrew Mitchell sounding shaky on the future of the 2030 petrol car ban: ‘All I can tell you is that it’s in place… I can’t prophesy the future’
The Trump trial date on the 'classified documents' charges set for May 2024.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/21/politics/trump-trial-date/index.html
Hmmm.
I also suspect that, absent major technological breakthroughs, the political will to push to net zero within democracies will fall short. The cost of certain aspects will just not be politically viable, particularly in the US.
Politically, mass migration from the worst affected areas is the most predictable result of all of this.
Remember, just as there are people wanting to exaggerate the story for social media dopamine hits, there are people desperate to minimise it: eg anyone in the Greek tourist industry or even the airlines (and one can sympathise)
I live inside the South Circular and work in central London, and I have never in my life paid the congestion charge.
Where the politics could make a difference, is in speeding up the pace of the transition to the new technology, so that the amount of global warming we end up with will be less.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/met-police-blocks-report-on-its-record-with-women-bhrjq6jxs
I'd be very worried if I lived in some of the drier parts of south-eastern England, with population going up and **** all having been done about water conservation never mind gathering of late.
In addition, VED raises around £6bn per year for cars, and about the same again for commercial vehicles.
So the EU may well delay. Which will then pose some interesting pressure on the next U.K. government. Especially if it wants to align with the EU.