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Could today be the day Sunak looses 3 by-elections? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Andy_JS said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Any soundings from the by-elections?

    Illegal to answer that I believe, except turnout has been brisk or unbrisk.
    I thought that only applied to general elections and to broadcast media like TV and radio. (Except wrt things like postal vote information).
    I think this may be a broadcast medium for these purposes.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,064
    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    As my (3rd?) off topic post of the day, a little comparison between canal towpaths 100 years ago and canal towpaths now. I don't think I have posted this.

    100 years ago they were setup to allow 2 boat horses to pass each other ie 2.5-3m wide afaics. Now they are setup by the Canals and Rivers Trust to be as narrow as 1-1.2m wide on the surfaced part, which excludes many eg wheelchairs who have a legal right of access , with "respect the heritage" (presumably on a chocolate box) as the slogan to hide behind.

    Two piccies of the approach to the Shrewley Tunnel on the Grand Union, which have an interesting extra tunnel for the horses, and now for the people, 1914 and 2015:



    I've often wondered how two horses 'passed' on a canal without fouling the tow rope. Can anyone enlighten me?

    Also, I wonder how rigorously towpaths will be maintained at all given the financial crisis at whatever the Canal and River Trust is calling itself this week.
    The passing was done by one horse, stopping, the rope going slack, and the oncoming horse just stepping over it. The rope would sink and the other boat would go over the top. There were sets of etiquette as to who did what.

    A similar (and to me more interesting) thing is bridges that let the horse cross from one side to the other without the risk of the rope being entangled, and removing any need to deattach and reattach) are "turnover bridges", which allow the horse to cross on the near side of the bridge via a spiral ramp.


    https://www.core77.com/posts/109086/Clever-Bridge-Design-Lets-Horses-Pulling-a-Barge-Cross-the-Canal-Without-Untying-Them
    Having done a lot of narrowboating on the English canals, I can say that these bridges are quite common.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,479

    Is it worth staying up for the by-election counts tonight or will they be very late?

    Uxbridge might be relatively early but the other two have a reputation for late declarations.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,469

    Towpaths and trans rights between by-election speculation and cricket chat. Peak PB! :-)

    Now just get onto whether you drive a steam engine left-handed or right-handed, and the Kettering problem...

    (I knew someone who referred to people who were left-handed as 'Keggy-handed' for this incredibly obscure reason. Which, as I only heard it from him, might be apocryphal anyway...)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,318
    ...

    For what it's worth, I think tonight may be disappointing for Labour. I'm not at all confident of winning Selby & Ainsty - it's a mountain to climb, and I just don't think that there's enough enthusiasm, particularly among younger left-inclined voters, to turn out. As for Uxbridge, it's just hard to call - too many potentially confounding factors.

    However, I hope I'm wrong and that we surprise on the upside.

    No, I believe Selby and Uxbridge will remain blue. I am quite confident of Somerton and Frome to fall to the LDs.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,732
    eristdoof said:

    Omnium said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    As my (3rd?) off topic post of the day, a little comparison between canal towpaths 100 years ago and canal towpaths now. I don't think I have posted this.

    100 years ago they were setup to allow 2 boat horses to pass each other ie 2.5-3m wide afaics. Now they are setup by the Canals and Rivers Trust to be as narrow as 1-1.2m wide on the surfaced part, which excludes many eg wheelchairs who have a legal right of access , with "respect the heritage" (presumably on a chocolate box) as the slogan to hide behind.

    Two piccies of the approach to the Shrewley Tunnel on the Grand Union, which have an interesting extra tunnel for the horses, and now for the people, 1914 and 2015:



    I've often wondered how two horses 'passed' on a canal without fouling the tow rope. Can anyone enlighten me?

    Also, I wonder how rigorously towpaths will be maintained at all given the financial crisis at whatever the Canal and River Trust is calling itself this week.
    The passing was done by one horse, stopping, the rope going slack, and the oncoming horse just stepping over it. The rope would sink and the other boat would go over the top. There were sets of etiquette as to who did what.

    A similar (and to me more interesting) thing is bridges that let the horse cross from one side to the other without the risk of the rope being entangled, and removing any need to deattach and reattach) are "turnover bridges", which allow the horse to cross on the near side of the bridge via a spiral ramp.


    https://www.core77.com/posts/109086/Clever-Bridge-Design-Lets-Horses-Pulling-a-Barge-Cross-the-Canal-Without-Untying-Them
    Another alternative were things called "split bridges", with a gap in the middle big enough for the rope to pass through - similar to the tiny lift-flap panels that allow boat's masts to pass without massive engineering of eg swing bridges.
    In the nicest possible way... You're making this up.
    No he's not. At least not for horse drawn narrowboats on canals.
    The main problem with his post was that split bridges are something the Romans invented, and that we've never really managed to replicate. Look up Roman cement!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't post much nowadays.

    But if KS wins any of the by-elections should he be on course for Downing Street? Just want to know if it's a good idea to up my bet for most seats or if I should move money over to majority

    He's probably on course for Downing Street even if he fails to win any of them.
    By-elections are very different from General Elections, IMO. There is a correlation between by-election and general election results, but it is loose. Especially so when there is more than one by-election on the same day.

    Having said that, my tuppence-worth is on a Labour landslide on the next GE, as things stand. That *should* mean that I think all of today's three seats go red - except local issues always intrude.
    I suspect Labour will win Uxbridge but it'll be an unconvincing swing - it's more likely to be a vote against the Conservatives than a vote for Labour. I'm expecting a Labour majority of 2,000-2,500.

    Somerton & Frome will probably be a LD gain but again not one of the "spectaculars" of recent times. My thought is an LD majority of 5,000-6,000.

    Selby & Ainsty could well be the big story of the night. Labour need a big swing to win the seat but there seem plenty of indications it's a mountain which can be climbed. I think the Greens will run third and Labour will take the seat by between one and three thousand.

    At least we'll have plenty to talk about tomorrow before the cricket.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 692
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Very good leader from the Times on the government's inaction over the Post Office.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-view-on-the-post-office-horizon-it-scandal-burning-injustice-lgn6vl2c8

    2 short extracts only:

    - "There is simply no case to match it in recent years as an example of systematic corporate cruelty and venality."
    - " the prime minister needs to take personal command of this issue and ensure that convictions are swiftly quashed, compensation swiftly paid and victims’ finances restored to health."

    Yes he does. As I said in May. As plenty of others have also said.

    FFS! The Tories will almost certainly lose the next election but they could at least use the time until then to do something honourable and this would be one of them. The government has set aside £1 billion for the compensation payments so just bloody well get on with it.

    Implementing the IICSA recommendations on child abuse would be another.


    A like is just totally inadequate to that post. Come on Tories, you have lost. Do the right thing anyway.
    That quote reminds me of the film "Living", which I recently watched. A bureaucrat who has lived a Zombie-style life of inertia in (local) government gets a terminal diagnosis. The shock of his impending death makes him determined to leave a worthwhile legacy and he takes on the case of local women seeking a children's playground, who have been treated appallingly by officials constantly passing the buck.

    Come on, Rishi. Your government hasn't got long left. Do at least one decent thing and fight for these post office people who have been treated so very badly for so long.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,469
    MattW said:

    As my (3rd?) off topic post of the day, a little comparison between canal towpaths 100 years ago and canal towpaths now. I don't think I have posted this.

    100 years ago they were setup to allow 2 boat horses to pass each other ie 2.5-3m wide afaics. Now they are setup by the Canals and Rivers Trust to be as narrow as 1-1.2m wide on the surfaced part, which excludes many eg wheelchairs who have a legal right of access , with "respect the heritage" (presumably on a chocolate box) as the slogan to hide behind.

    Two piccies of the approach to the Shrewley Tunnel on the Grand Union, which have an interesting extra tunnel for the horses, and now for the people, 1914 and 2015:



    TBF, I've been walking the canal towpaths since the 1990s, and the towpath's narrowness in the latter photo is typical even in the British Waterways days.

    Perhaps it's just a symptom of the fact that in those days, towpaths were a necessary part of industry, required to allow trade. Now they're *just* for leisure use. Like motorways would become if teleportation was developed...

    As another point of interest, note the telegraph posts in the old photo. Witness also the telegraph posts in old photos of railway lines. Another symbol of the past.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,479
    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't post much nowadays.

    But if KS wins any of the by-elections should he be on course for Downing Street? Just want to know if it's a good idea to up my bet for most seats or if I should move money over to majority

    He's probably on course for Downing Street even if he fails to win any of them.
    By-elections are very different from General Elections, IMO. There is a correlation between by-election and general election results, but it is loose. Especially so when there is more than one by-election on the same day.

    Having said that, my tuppence-worth is on a Labour landslide on the next GE, as things stand. That *should* mean that I think all of today's three seats go red - except local issues always intrude.
    I suspect Labour will win Uxbridge but it'll be an unconvincing swing - it's more likely to be a vote against the Conservatives than a vote for Labour. I'm expecting a Labour majority of 2,000-2,500.

    Somerton & Frome will probably be a LD gain but again not one of the "spectaculars" of recent times. My thought is an LD majority of 5,000-6,000.

    Selby & Ainsty could well be the big story of the night. Labour need a big swing to win the seat but there seem plenty of indications it's a mountain which can be climbed. I think the Greens will run third and Labour will take the seat by between one and three thousand.

    At least we'll have plenty to talk about tomorrow before the cricket.
    I'd be surprised if the LDs don't win Somerton & Frome by at least 8,000.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,009
    edited July 2023
    Omnium said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    As my (3rd?) off topic post of the day, a little comparison between canal towpaths 100 years ago and canal towpaths now. I don't think I have posted this.

    100 years ago they were setup to allow 2 boat horses to pass each other ie 2.5-3m wide afaics. Now they are setup by the Canals and Rivers Trust to be as narrow as 1-1.2m wide on the surfaced part, which excludes many eg wheelchairs who have a legal right of access , with "respect the heritage" (presumably on a chocolate box) as the slogan to hide behind.

    Two piccies of the approach to the Shrewley Tunnel on the Grand Union, which have an interesting extra tunnel for the horses, and now for the people, 1914 and 2015:



    I've often wondered how two horses 'passed' on a canal without fouling the tow rope. Can anyone enlighten me?

    Also, I wonder how rigorously towpaths will be maintained at all given the financial crisis at whatever the Canal and River Trust is calling itself this week.
    The passing was done by one horse, stopping, the rope going slack, and the oncoming horse just stepping over it. The rope would sink and the other boat would go over the top. There were sets of etiquette as to who did what.

    A similar (and to me more interesting) thing is bridges that let the horse cross from one side to the other without the risk of the rope being entangled, and removing any need to deattach and reattach) are "turnover bridges", which allow the horse to cross on the near side of the bridge via a spiral ramp.


    https://www.core77.com/posts/109086/Clever-Bridge-Design-Lets-Horses-Pulling-a-Barge-Cross-the-Canal-Without-Untying-Them
    Another alternative were things called "split bridges", with a gap in the middle big enough for the rope to pass through - similar to the tiny lift-flap panels that allow boat's masts to pass without massive engineering of eg swing bridges.
    In the nicest possible way... You're making this up.
    Interesting thing to say :smile: .

    That one is on the Macclesfield Canal.

    Here's the page on the Canal and Rivers Trust website that refers to these bridge types:
    https://canalrivertrust.org.uk/enjoy-the-waterways/canal-history/canal-heritage-and-architecture/canal-bridges

    You can find "split" bridges on the Stratford & Avon canal. Here's a photo of one, and a link to the photo. It is at grid reference SP 1863 7073 or Lat/Long 52:20.0606N 1:43.6809W. There's even on in Newbury.

    https://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/5536196



  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,469
    A novel approach to charging electric cars on the street:

    https://twitter.com/ListerLawrence/status/1682009049858994176

    (I cannot immediately see massive issues with this, aside from general ugliness)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    Just catching up.

    BAZBALL!!!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    NEW THREAD
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,635
    Omnium said:

    eristdoof said:

    Omnium said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    As my (3rd?) off topic post of the day, a little comparison between canal towpaths 100 years ago and canal towpaths now. I don't think I have posted this.

    100 years ago they were setup to allow 2 boat horses to pass each other ie 2.5-3m wide afaics. Now they are setup by the Canals and Rivers Trust to be as narrow as 1-1.2m wide on the surfaced part, which excludes many eg wheelchairs who have a legal right of access , with "respect the heritage" (presumably on a chocolate box) as the slogan to hide behind.

    Two piccies of the approach to the Shrewley Tunnel on the Grand Union, which have an interesting extra tunnel for the horses, and now for the people, 1914 and 2015:



    I've often wondered how two horses 'passed' on a canal without fouling the tow rope. Can anyone enlighten me?

    Also, I wonder how rigorously towpaths will be maintained at all given the financial crisis at whatever the Canal and River Trust is calling itself this week.
    The passing was done by one horse, stopping, the rope going slack, and the oncoming horse just stepping over it. The rope would sink and the other boat would go over the top. There were sets of etiquette as to who did what.

    A similar (and to me more interesting) thing is bridges that let the horse cross from one side to the other without the risk of the rope being entangled, and removing any need to deattach and reattach) are "turnover bridges", which allow the horse to cross on the near side of the bridge via a spiral ramp.


    https://www.core77.com/posts/109086/Clever-Bridge-Design-Lets-Horses-Pulling-a-Barge-Cross-the-Canal-Without-Untying-Them
    Another alternative were things called "split bridges", with a gap in the middle big enough for the rope to pass through - similar to the tiny lift-flap panels that allow boat's masts to pass without massive engineering of eg swing bridges.
    In the nicest possible way... You're making this up.
    No he's not. At least not for horse drawn narrowboats on canals.
    The main problem with his post was that split bridges are something the Romans invented, and that we've never really managed to replicate. Look up Roman cement!
    My favourite weird canal bridge is Keadby Sliding Railway Bridge:

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@53.5932397,-0.7535616,218m/

    The whole railway slides out of the way.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,921
    Omnium said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Hope kinabalu is OK after his root canal work today.

    I went to the dental hygienist today, one of a six-monthly visit that occurs because I did not treat my teeth well when I was younger. It cost me ~£70 for thirty minutes.

    That's ****ing expensive. However, it's far less than a good meal out with Mrs J and our immediate family, and less than other discretionary spending we make. I treat it as a 'punishment' for the fact I was stupid when I was younger.

    Then again, we are in the fortunate position where we can afford it. for people who are less well off, and with NHS dentists being few and far between in our part of the world, it may be a very different matter.

    And there're issues here. If you are poor, transport is generally more difficult. If the local dentist no longer accepts NHS patients, you need to travel to another dentist miles away. And with public transport issues, that may be very difficult.
    NHS dentistry is in its death throws. Our dentist has just gone purely private, causing much consternation.

    I've spent £2,500 on dentistry recently with a different dentist (a periodontist) to fix things up that were missed. When I asked in vain whether NHS would pick up any of the tab, she said "No. And NHS dentistry is the reason you are in front of me now".

    She said all dentist should, and probably will, split away from NHS as it is impossible to operate with integrity within the NHS system.
    Dentistry is a very interesting microcosm of healthcare.

    I had NHS dentistry in my childhood and it was terrifying and very painful. In part this was because for much of my early life I'm not sure I owned a toothbrush, but I certainly did own sweets and fizzy drinks. I also broke some teeth.

    There was a definite thing though about not giving children anaesthetics. I can only conclude that I was already screaming...
    That’s not quite true. Though I had fillings without anaesthetic, and yes, it hurt, I also had a general anaesthetic in the dentist’s chair for a tooth extraction.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,191
    This thread has

    Been sent off to knock up voters in one of the by elections

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,469
    edited July 2023

    Omnium said:

    eristdoof said:

    Omnium said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    As my (3rd?) off topic post of the day, a little comparison between canal towpaths 100 years ago and canal towpaths now. I don't think I have posted this.

    100 years ago they were setup to allow 2 boat horses to pass each other ie 2.5-3m wide afaics. Now they are setup by the Canals and Rivers Trust to be as narrow as 1-1.2m wide on the surfaced part, which excludes many eg wheelchairs who have a legal right of access , with "respect the heritage" (presumably on a chocolate box) as the slogan to hide behind.

    Two piccies of the approach to the Shrewley Tunnel on the Grand Union, which have an interesting extra tunnel for the horses, and now for the people, 1914 and 2015:



    I've often wondered how two horses 'passed' on a canal without fouling the tow rope. Can anyone enlighten me?

    Also, I wonder how rigorously towpaths will be maintained at all given the financial crisis at whatever the Canal and River Trust is calling itself this week.
    The passing was done by one horse, stopping, the rope going slack, and the oncoming horse just stepping over it. The rope would sink and the other boat would go over the top. There were sets of etiquette as to who did what.

    A similar (and to me more interesting) thing is bridges that let the horse cross from one side to the other without the risk of the rope being entangled, and removing any need to deattach and reattach) are "turnover bridges", which allow the horse to cross on the near side of the bridge via a spiral ramp.


    https://www.core77.com/posts/109086/Clever-Bridge-Design-Lets-Horses-Pulling-a-Barge-Cross-the-Canal-Without-Untying-Them
    Another alternative were things called "split bridges", with a gap in the middle big enough for the rope to pass through - similar to the tiny lift-flap panels that allow boat's masts to pass without massive engineering of eg swing bridges.
    In the nicest possible way... You're making this up.
    No he's not. At least not for horse drawn narrowboats on canals.
    The main problem with his post was that split bridges are something the Romans invented, and that we've never really managed to replicate. Look up Roman cement!
    My favourite weird canal bridge is Keadby Sliding Railway Bridge:

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@53.5932397,-0.7535616,218m/

    The whole railway slides out of the way.
    Thanks for that; I'd hard of it, but never realised why it was notable. Probably overlooked because of the relatively nearby Goole swingbridge.

    Slightly reminds me of this one in Oxford (disued, but AIUI recently statically restored); https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rewley_Road_Swing_Bridge
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,719
    edited July 2023

    Omnium said:

    eristdoof said:

    Omnium said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    As my (3rd?) off topic post of the day, a little comparison between canal towpaths 100 years ago and canal towpaths now. I don't think I have posted this.

    100 years ago they were setup to allow 2 boat horses to pass each other ie 2.5-3m wide afaics. Now they are setup by the Canals and Rivers Trust to be as narrow as 1-1.2m wide on the surfaced part, which excludes many eg wheelchairs who have a legal right of access , with "respect the heritage" (presumably on a chocolate box) as the slogan to hide behind.

    Two piccies of the approach to the Shrewley Tunnel on the Grand Union, which have an interesting extra tunnel for the horses, and now for the people, 1914 and 2015:



    I've often wondered how two horses 'passed' on a canal without fouling the tow rope. Can anyone enlighten me?

    Also, I wonder how rigorously towpaths will be maintained at all given the financial crisis at whatever the Canal and River Trust is calling itself this week.
    The passing was done by one horse, stopping, the rope going slack, and the oncoming horse just stepping over it. The rope would sink and the other boat would go over the top. There were sets of etiquette as to who did what.

    A similar (and to me more interesting) thing is bridges that let the horse cross from one side to the other without the risk of the rope being entangled, and removing any need to deattach and reattach) are "turnover bridges", which allow the horse to cross on the near side of the bridge via a spiral ramp.


    https://www.core77.com/posts/109086/Clever-Bridge-Design-Lets-Horses-Pulling-a-Barge-Cross-the-Canal-Without-Untying-Them
    Another alternative were things called "split bridges", with a gap in the middle big enough for the rope to pass through - similar to the tiny lift-flap panels that allow boat's masts to pass without massive engineering of eg swing bridges.
    In the nicest possible way... You're making this up.
    No he's not. At least not for horse drawn narrowboats on canals.
    The main problem with his post was that split bridges are something the Romans invented, and that we've never really managed to replicate. Look up Roman cement!
    My favourite weird canal bridge is Keadby Sliding Railway Bridge:

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@53.5932397,-0.7535616,218m/

    The whole railway slides out of the way.
    Thanks for that; I'd hard of it, but never realised why it was notable. Probably overlooked because of the relatively nearby Goole swingbridge.

    Slightly reminds me of this one in Oxford (disued, but AIUI recently statically restored); https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rewley_Road_Swing_Bridge
    The Rewley Road one has definitely been statically restored - looks much better than it did.

    https://www.oxfordpreservation.org.uk/content/rewley-road-railway-swing-bridge

    Edit: the line led to the London and North Western Railway terminus, made up of modules originally designed for the Crystal Palace. I loved seeing it and the bridge when visiting my chums up the canal (it was then a tyre depot). Terminus got demolished for a business school, but being what it was it got taken to bits and put together on a preserved railway somewhere, so all is good.
This discussion has been closed.