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Meanwhile Dorries STILL hasn’t resigned – politicalbetting.com
Meanwhile Dorries STILL hasn’t resigned – politicalbetting.com
It was on June 9th that Mid-Beds MP Nadine Dorries announced that she was stepping down as an MP “with immediate effect”.
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Otherwise 'second-ish' depending how long it took me to type this.
I duly arrived, bereft, and got drunk, and it was all good and fun, but on the way back home just now, I began to tot up all the hassly expensive things I would now have to do, and how much it would all cost
At Camden Road station I discovered someone had handed in my wallet. Everything inside it intact
Thankyou London and Londoners and that lovely person. This one thing has restored my faith in my city, and in humanity. It doesn't take much, but TA
It is a pleasant thought, anyway, even if it is wrong
I recall thinking, Wow, that's amazingly honest, sadly that would probably never happen in London
I was wrong
But it's bullshit.
See my micro examples of "savings" in education FPT.
How can any pay rise to teachers in the public sector be inflationary?
As I understand it inflation is measured against the costs of things that we, as the public, buy. Different forms of inflation inlcude different things but in the end they are all about stuff we directly pay for.
But we do not buy state education - we pay for it out of our taxes. Yes ultimately we are paying for it but it is not something that is measured by any of the normal inflation criteria that I am aware of. At worst (and it is of course bad) pay rises for teachers means more Government spending leading to more debt, higher taxes or cuts elsewhere. But it does not mean that the price of anything we are directly paying for goes up.
So how is a public sector pay increase inflationary?
I'm not sure it is OFSTED in principle.
However. I'd accept no pay rise in exchange for.
A funding rise in excess of inflation. So that we can order the things we need, within reason, without having to seek approval, which can take months, that we need. That includes things like chews for kids with pica. They aren't particularly pricey, but there are relatively few suppliers. The Education Authority simply won't bulk buy a thousand. So, we wait months. Meanwhile, we have constant disruption for sake of summat to stick in their mouth.
This is a micro example replicated across the SENDMH sector.
And. A decent pay rise for TA's. Which takes them at least to the levels of Aldi. And pays them for statutory breaks.
That way we may be able to keep the very best, who are absolute angelic diamonds.
And the competent.
Rather than having to make do with the others who verge on the dangerous.
Both of these would make my job so much less stressful.
It means she has to seem like she does intend to quit, since immediate is pretty clear, but she's locked in her reasons for delay to a preposterous line about how unfair it is that she has not been given a bauble.
She's not even the worst of options for Peers, but she's somehow made her departure even sillier than Boris'.
What I DO know is that niceness and honesty are reinforcing, and positively reproductive. Infectious, even. Someone anonymous has just done something kind, sweet and honest to me, for the next few days (hopefuly longer!) I will be minded to do the same, to increase the sum of human happiness, as my happiness has just itself been nourished
As it also said, we don't live up to the ideals most of the time, but still trying makes a difference.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xqn4pYyJz40
And it's less than the average?
But putting money into circulation is absolutely always bad for a certain ideology I guess?
I assume that's the thinking.
It was like a mini kumbaya of human goodness
How much happiness would a thief have got from simply stealing it, using the contactless cards a few times, trying to sell the nice leather wallet, etc?
I am fairly sure the grand total of human happiness - indeed pleasure - was raised more, and for more people, by the honest kind act than it would be raised by the mean thieving act
On the other hand the happiness would not be so profound if honesty was taken for granted. The return of the wallet would be less of a surprise, simply expected, as in super honest societies like Japan
In summation, I am not sure there is a grand philosophical lesson to be drawn, apart from: why not be nice, if you can, as that is a bet on a positive outcome for us all
An increase in the M3 money supply means more money is moving around the economy which is inflationary. The whole point of increasing interest rates is to slow the movement of money around the economy and bring down inflationary pressures by spending less.
For my part, am thankful Leon did NOT lose his wallet, in the dystopian hell that is Marietta, Ohio!
Just the tax without the pay rise would reduce inflation (less money chasing available stuff), just the pay rise without the tax would increase inflation (more money chasing available stuff). In public spending the two things are kind of mostly considered independently, so the policy of giving teachers a pay rise amounts to the second of those.
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1677435161514737665
Look on my Wallet, ye Lowly, and rejoice!
Everything inside remains. From the bustle
Of Camden Road boundless but for ULEZ
The wack happy traveler wanders on beyond
Ah, lost amid the bustling throng, upon Camden's vibrant scene,
Lay a trove of forgotten bounty, in a wallet, stout and keen.
Like Leon, upon life's journey, had strayed off a measured path,
In Richmond's arms, he sought solace, in a river's frothy bath.
No scorn for the world he carried, as his heart swam in his brew,
For the city's thrumming pulse, its shades of every hue,
Yet, in the back of mirth and ale, a daunting shadow grew,
Of the task ahead to mend the loss, and start his life anew.
Yet as day gives way to the dark night, as sorrow seeds delight,
In London's heart a kindness bloomed, under the moon's soft light.
An unseen hand, a stranger's care, held firm what Leon had lost,
Proof that kindness still can thrive, regardless of the cost.
Back at Camden Road station, the journey had its end,
With every item in its place, every note and every friend.
A testament to the spirit, that fuels this ancient city,
That in each heart there beats a rhythm, of love and gritty pity.
Oh London, ever churning, ever faithful, ever bright,
You've restored one man's belief, in humanity's shared light.
To the stranger who bore witness, who acted, without a plea,
Your deed has echoed far and wide, a bell of decency.
We toast to thee, oh London, and to the hearts that dwell within,
May your lights never dim, may your love never thin.
In the style of Percy Shelley, as Corbyn would convey,
In the face of common hardship, it's kindness lights the way.
Private sector employees use that as a benchmark and demand 16% just because. Mean evil capitalists settle at 12%
Assuming that it’s a service business and 70% of their costs are wages then their cost base has just gone up by 8.5%
Mean evil capitalists increase prices by 10% to compensate for the increase in costs
Public sector sees a cost of living crisis and demands a 15% pay rise to prevent them falling behind in real terms.
Rinse and repeat.
It’s called a wage-price inflationary spiral and it absolutely fucks the economy.
(And the point is that a 6.5% wage increase is below current inflation but above *future expected inflation*)
In one tweet crime scene investigators congratulate themselves on the speed of their work by using a high-five gif from the film Top Gun. Another tweet celebrates police drone work with the hashtag "crackingbitofkit"."
https://news.sky.com/story/police-tweet-using-top-gun-gif-to-celebrate-forensics-on-my-dead-daughter-was-horrendous-says-mother-12916726
https://news.sky.com/story/dutch-pm-mark-rutte-resigns-after-collapse-of-coalition-government-12917179
"Dutch PM Mark Rutte resigns after collapse of coalition government
The Dutch prime minister announced his decision to resign after "irreconcilable" differences emerged within his four party coalition over migration policy."
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1677435161514737665.html
Mr. kle4, Order of the Stick sounds pretty interesting.
I think the only webcomic I read was 8-Bit Theater. That was pretty fantastic, from fuzzy memory.
Labour leads of 23%, 21%, 25%, and 26% respectively.
I reckon the housing market / mortgage situation is starting to have an impact, on top of the rest.
Par for the course at this point if you are heading for electoral disaster, maybe.
I blame MoonRabbitdamus for the latest dip:
I'm concerned that those betting on the outcome of the General Election, which is now either 10 months or 15 months away should be as factually based as possible. For reasons previously stated, I think we make a mistake in using GE2019 as a benchmark for swing. December GE2019 was a unique 'Get Brexit Done' election against an unelectable anti-semitic trotskyite. The real GE benchmark, I have argued, is the June 2017 one, which was a hung parliament.
p.s. Saw loads of Morris Dancers in Teignmouth a couple of Saturdays back. Many wearing dark outfits which was new to me.
And yes, you're right that's a clear widening of the gap just recently.
Edited extra bit: https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2023/07/uk-pre-qualifying-2023.html
In my rough guestimate, the dodgy month for polling is August. Most private schools only broke up yesterday and state schools still have a few more weeks to go. [Edit. @Foxy snap]
Stories about mortgage difficulties are very evident. I know several people affected including my friend's son who has just seen his mortgage go up from £700 to £1400 pcm.
A lot of this country's stability, in a Maslow sense, is built upon a stable mortgage / housing market. When that starts to quake it reaches the foundations.
It's a hideous choice. But it's not the fault of the Americans for providing the weapons, or the Ukrainians for using them (on their own territory); it's the fault of the Russians, who both already use such weapons, and are the invaders.
Don't expect DA to acknowledge these hard choices. Russia stronk, and all that.
(I really hope I got all that right!)
ETA: dammit, missed the apostrophe on others'
I don’t think that on its own accounts for the effect, mind.
Public Sector net borrowing in May was £20 billion, the second highest May figure on record. That money being pumped into the country is inflationary.
Also, if government is borrowing to pay public sector suffers, it is increasing the money supply in general.
The increase in pay isn't, as you note, linked to any increase in goods or services.
The overall effect is small - but one public sector pay deal influences others.
Above inflation pay rises across the economy are the definition of wage inflation, if pay is increasing faster than the increase in gods and services. More money chasing the same amount of stuff pushes prices up.
I find the podcasts informative. I believe the programme is based on 'proper science' rather than pseudo-science. It's quite expensive though.
(I'm increasingly feeling my gut-health is not what it could be as I get older, hence considering this programme. Apols if it's too early in the morning for this topic!)
If the amount if goods and services in the economy is increasing at a faster rate, then it's not.
Our problem is our low rate of growth, and the inability of government to form useful policies to encourage it.
(Liz Truss's tax cuts were an extremely inefficient way of trying that - and of course involved more borrowing.)
The decade long distraction of Brexit hasn't been of much help.
It does look expensive - but if it produces significant results for you then not ridiculously so.
I'm a bit sceptical, FWIW - though I don't think it's a con.
And definitely fully funded.
...Ukraine's hardest limit is probably not manpower, or equipment, but artillery ammunition. This is foremost about the numbers. Providing DPICM gives access to a sizable stockpile of artillery ammo that can alleviate the time pressure on UA operations...
It's a bit of a devils bargain - but if they don't drive the Russians out, they'll continue to seed the land with mines and explosives anyway.
The devil's bargain was forced on them by the devil's minion in the Kremlin.
Similarly, a lot of the austerity of the last fifteen years has been done by invisible cuts- letting things decay, forcing cuts at second hand in local government, that sort of thing. That process has gone almost as far as it can- we're left with things like the government requiring the closure of train ticket offices now. Everything is just mediocre and probably more expensive than doing it properly in the first place.
So the choice for this and the next government is pretty simple. Increase taxes or withdraw from some aspect of the public sector. And the second of those either means that something stops happening or people pay for it another way. Oh, and we're rapidly running out of bits of country (companies or hydrocarbons) we can sell off to keep ourselves in the lifestyle we're accustomed to.
*Emptied in a chaotic manner.
I notice that far more clinics in our outpatients finish by 1230, while previously they were still crowded at that time. A lot of my colleagues don't overbook urgent cases anymore, as was near universal a decade ago. It probably was just hiding capacity gaps in the past.
It provides individualised scores on food to your biology. I find it useful and the lessons and support is decent. I am still struggling to manage my blood fats and understand why some meals work and don't work (although you can chat to support teams). But I have felt better on the scheme and lost some weight too.
It seems the most individualised system I've seen. Support can be a little slow at times, but they do score foods not in their system if you ask. Overall I am enjoying it and think gut science is increasingly key.
One thing they need to improve going forwards (which they are testing) is a follow up testing plan so users can assess progress over time.
Hope that helps.
And note the likely pay review body recommendation - 6.5% - is likely to be rejected by government, despite being below inflation.
Teachers have says they'll accept it, IF fully funded.
The government is simply wrong on this.
And whilst there's nothing fundamentally wrong with Rishi being a squillionaire, or having a squillionaire as Prime Minister, there is a problem with him telling other people they can't have an inflation-matching pay rise from his government.
It's a hangover from previous times. Many of the ideas in people's heads about how to run an economy (what causes inflation, how to prevent unemployment, etc) were built in the 70's and 80s. The theory goes that inflation is driven by the "money supply" - the amount of money in the economy. The theory says that the amount of goods and services in an economy changes slowly, so if the amount of money in the economy goes up quickly, inflation inevitably grows. By restricting teacher's pay, he hopes to discourage others and prevent money supply from growing and hence kill inflation
But here's the problem... 1/n
In the 70's and 80's the UK economy, despite the inheritance of the British Empire, was still a closed economy compared to now. In the intervening years credit has become far more available and we have become far more open and we import far more: this is globalisation. In our present moment inflation is driven by a global rise in costs: Ukraine used to be the European breadbasket, China produced cheap chips, the US finds it increasingly difficult to maintain a global order, and so on. Inflation is no longer caused by an increase in money supply, it's caused by - drum roll - goods becoming rarer.
So combatting inflation by restricting teacher's pay just doesn't work any more. And the Conservative Party just doesn't realise it... 2/n
The Conservative Party no longer knows how to run an economy. Truss tried full-fat Thatcherism and it blew up on the pad. All the party theoreticians spent decades talking about the EU and now focus on cultural issues. They don't have a theory. Lacking a theory they fall back on fossil ideas in their lizard brain: clamp down on the unions, talk hard. But these techniques don't work in the 2020's. So they're flailing.
The reason why Con need to take time out and a time in opposition is not just because I want them to, it's so that they can rebuild ideas. All their theoreticians are fighting culture war, but these are luxury values in deglobalisation. They need to work out how to run an economy (or more likely, observe what works with others) so that they know what to do.
Because right now, they just don't...3/n
Post 2 suggests that the BoE are p*ssing up a rope by increasing mortgage rates to reduce spending capacity to reduce demand and hence the money supply to combat inflation.
It's forty years since I studied economics and I am a bit rusty, but generating a recession in the short term to reduce inflation when growth and productivity would resolve the issue in the medium term seems counter-intuitive.
We are all working off ideas formed during the period known as "neoliberalism" (1979?-2019?). The world that existed during that period was increasingly globalised, a global market driving growth thru cheap goods, underpinned by a US enforcing the world order. But that world is on the downslope: US focussing on Pacific, Ukrainan wheat has gone, China isn't nice. In this dying world our ideas no longer work and politicians are flailing, retreating to populism or old ideas. We notice it because of Brexit, but it's a global thing.
Until things stabilize and politicians work out ideas that work, we will have this problem...4/n
We do seem to be up an economic gum tree.