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Would a new Tory leader save a number of seats? – politicalbetting.com

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  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,685
    Andy_JS said:

    Former Labour MP Stephen Pound just said "Sweden were right" on the pandemic on one of the news channels.

    Remind me of his expertise again? Wasn't his PhD in 'Pandemic repsonse - consideration of Health Impacts vs Economic dislocation'?

    Thought not.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    I’m struggling for the word/phrase to use when a group of zealots utterly discredits a cause you have some sympathy with. As with my fear of being pilloried as an IRA supporter in the Nineties for being vaguely in favour of a United Ireland, similarly it’s hard to express support for government divestment from fossil fuels for fear of being pigeon holed with these privileged clueless morons. Utterly utterly counterproductive. So angry!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    Pulpstar said:

    TimS said:

    Talking of insurance, got my car renewal quote through today from Aviva. Up from £650 to £2,200. No thanks.

    Blimey. Got mine for £250 this year.
    Mine was £386 for my BMW 5 Series parked on the road outside my flat in London. Fully comp. Hastings Direct.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,778
    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    MattW said:

    Morning all. My morning thoughts.

    1 - Is Daniel Korski toast yet? Not that it will make much difference to the identity of the next Major.

    2 - The 40% water bill increase sounds like either industry scaremongering, or media sensationalising.

    25% sounds more like it, and it is wished on us - as it will be across the UK and across Europe since we all have the same sewerage in rivers issue - by lobbies demanding umpteen billions of investment.

    Since English water consumption is about 25% above the European best practice (140l pppd vs 105l in Denmark), if peeps invest in reducing their consumption (eg rainwater collection for the garden using a couple of Industrial Bulk Containers and an automatic watering system) and change habits, then bills will stay approx the same.

    Personal responsibility required.

    One thing I find fascinating is that Greens inm my experience are demanding that millions of tons of concrete (presumably) be used to build new reservoirs. Greens? Rather than control consumption. What happened to Reduce, Reuse, Recycle?

    Earth dams are a thing, tbf.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,263
    ydoethur said:

    Ben Foakes would not have dealt with that.

    Thank Allah for Johnny Bairstow. He saved the test from being abandoned.

    Footage below.

    https://twitter.com/arifahmeditv/status/1673996937106735104?s=46

    Ben Foakes would have caught him earlier.
    Surely he'd have caught both of them ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
    What, more being beaten up by a single Yorkshireman and looking like idiots?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,937
    edited June 2023
    Miklosvar said:

    TimS said:

    Talking of insurance, got my car renewal quote through today from Aviva. Up from £650 to £2,200. No thanks.

    Golly. Thought this sort of loyalty gouging had been outlawed.
    Have you picked up points? eg in the UK a mobile phone offence could add 50-100%.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited June 2023
    carnforth said:
    Curry at the rugby, treated the dickhead like a suitcase.

    It does demonstrate just how strong professional sports people are these days.

    Still disappointed Manu Tuilagi pulled out of tackling one. They would have still been stitching their parts back together.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TimS said:

    Talking of insurance, got my car renewal quote through today from Aviva. Up from £650 to £2,200. No thanks.

    Blimey. Got mine for £250 this year.
    What do you have, a C5?!
    7 yr old 308.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    edited June 2023
    Comment on Cricinfo

    'Ben Foakes would have caught both of them.'

    Edit - Great minds @Nigelb
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    I say this as a card-carrying Green vegan cycling tofu-eater: Just Stop Oil are a bunch of f-kin morons who do the cause more harm than good.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,437
    Andy_JS said:

    Kemi Badenoch is favourite to be next Tory leader but she might prefer to wait until after the next election. Otherwise it would likely be a very brief leadership.

    Yes but at least she would be Prime Minister. Like Liz Truss, she will have reached Number 10, unlike Hague, Howard and IDS.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,081
    edited June 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
    Do you support all protesto-vandalism, or only for causes you agree with? I mean, this is resistance to something too: https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/dublin/2023/05/13/homeless-asylum-seekers-camp-destroyed-by-fire-as-refugees-sleeping-rough-express-worry-over-safety/
  • Tough chance but Root drops Khawaja on 1.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    That's your one chance per 5hrs from Khwaja.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    That's your one chance per 5hrs from Khwaja.

    Broad's just had one past Warner's outside edge for the 500th time.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,947

    kjh said:

    Just back after four weeks in the Greek islands, a few observations:


    - much busier than 2022
    - passport queues non-existent on arriving and leaving despite need for stamps
    - cost of eating out slightly higher than 2022 but portion size and quality noticeably affected
    - weather unusually unsettled, with rain some days and cool wind most days, poorer weather than back home in Yorkshire Dales
    - Americans by far the highest proportion of tourist, Chinese tourists returning, no Russians
    - designer boutiques and cocktail bars driving out traditional businesses even on less popular islands

    Overall, the traditional Greek Island experience is getting harder to find.

    We noticed much higher prices on our French cycle ride than our previous one for accommodation and food.
    Where was your ride, out of interest?
    Charente on very minor roads and reasonable off road paths. Mainly very rural but several major towns (Poitier, Cognac, etc). I have done similar in recent years in Brittany, Normandy, Bordeaux, etc. 500km.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,167
    edited June 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
    They’ve encroached upon a holy place of English gammonry, right up there with Pussy Riot doing their thing in Moscow Cathedral in terms of transgression.
    Mordaunt really needs to be seen at one of the tests for full stroke-inducing effect, possibly drop kicking a vegan.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
    They’ve encroached upon a holy place of English gammonry, right up there with Pussy Riot doing their thing in Moscow Cathedral in terms of transgression.
    Mordaunt really needs to be seen at one of the tests for full stroke-inducing effect.
    All JSO need to do is to pour some organic weedkiller on the green bit in the middle with the sticks to achieve maximum puce.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited June 2023
    Do we think England picking another seamer that Stokes really isn't able to bowl? And that knee is permanently f##ked.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,035

    Tough chance but Root drops Khawaja on 1.

    Not an easy chance, but could really have done with sending Khawaja back to the pavilion, the bugger will probably be out there all day now.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited June 2023
    Dura's stance is distinctly at odds with the main strains of centrist dad, and also centre-right PB.

    I'm personally not sure if they're doing themselves any more favours with this approach. There's something about stopping the general flow of everyday activities, rather than activities as specific as fracking, that doesn't seem to be doing them any favours at the moment.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Just back after four weeks in the Greek islands, a few observations:


    - much busier than 2022
    - passport queues non-existent on arriving and leaving despite need for stamps
    - cost of eating out slightly higher than 2022 but portion size and quality noticeably affected
    - weather unusually unsettled, with rain some days and cool wind most days, poorer weather than back home in Yorkshire Dales
    - Americans by far the highest proportion of tourist, Chinese tourists returning, no Russians
    - designer boutiques and cocktail bars driving out traditional businesses even on less popular islands

    Overall, the traditional Greek Island experience is getting harder to find.

    We noticed much higher prices on our French cycle ride than our previous one for accommodation and food.
    Where was your ride, out of interest?
    Charente on very minor roads and reasonable off road paths. Mainly very rural but several major towns (Poitier, Cognac, etc). I have done similar in recent years in Brittany, Normandy, Bordeaux, etc. 500km.
    Oh nice. I had a lovely week cycling in France a couple of years ago. Been wondering where to go for the next visit...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    Must be a flipping road at Leeds. Even Yorkshire and Gloucestershire are scoring runs on it. At north of four an over too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Do we think England picking another seamer that Stokes really isn't able to bowl? And that knee is permanently f##ked.

    It's a massive vote of confidence in Root's abilities.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395

    Dura's stance is distinctly at odds with the main strains of centrist dad, and also centre-right PB.

    I'm personally not sure if they're doing themselves any more favours with this approach. There's something about stopping the general flow of everyday activities, rather than activities as specific as fracking, that doesn't seem to be working for them at the moment.

    OTOH he can claim to have defended the realm at some risk to his skin, unlike most of us.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    MattW said:

    Miklosvar said:

    TimS said:

    Talking of insurance, got my car renewal quote through today from Aviva. Up from £650 to £2,200. No thanks.

    Golly. Thought this sort of loyalty gouging had been outlawed.
    Have you picked up points? eg in the UK a mobile phone offence could add 50-100%.
    No, and this was a house policy.

    Cannot understand MPs and dukes and people getting done for mobiles in their own cars, everything has had flawless handsfree for a good decade.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Privatise the profits, destroy the service, and get bailed out.

    https://twitter.com/Feargal_Sharkey/status/1673956919088672771?s=20

    I'm sure going to be happy when SKS goes on TV later this week and still argues that renationalisation of essential services is a bad idea...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,263
    Pulpstar said:

    Do we think England picking another seamer that Stokes really isn't able to bowl? And that knee is permanently f##ked.

    It's a massive vote of confidence in Root's abilities.
    His catching ?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    edited June 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TimS said:

    Talking of insurance, got my car renewal quote through today from Aviva. Up from £650 to £2,200. No thanks.

    Blimey. Got mine for £250 this year.
    What do you have, a C5?!
    Mine was £220 - JCW Mini with all the toys so something has changed.

    The obvious question is points or more likely claims within the groups (postcode, car type, age profile) the underwriting software places you in that has increased the perceived risk.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Pulpstar said:

    Do we think England picking another seamer that Stokes really isn't able to bowl? And that knee is permanently f##ked.

    It's a massive vote of confidence in Root's abilities.
    England certainly don't bat deep.....
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,947

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Just back after four weeks in the Greek islands, a few observations:


    - much busier than 2022
    - passport queues non-existent on arriving and leaving despite need for stamps
    - cost of eating out slightly higher than 2022 but portion size and quality noticeably affected
    - weather unusually unsettled, with rain some days and cool wind most days, poorer weather than back home in Yorkshire Dales
    - Americans by far the highest proportion of tourist, Chinese tourists returning, no Russians
    - designer boutiques and cocktail bars driving out traditional businesses even on less popular islands

    Overall, the traditional Greek Island experience is getting harder to find.

    We noticed much higher prices on our French cycle ride than our previous one for accommodation and food.
    Where was your ride, out of interest?
    Charente on very minor roads and reasonable off road paths. Mainly very rural but several major towns (Poitier, Cognac, etc). I have done similar in recent years in Brittany, Normandy, Bordeaux, etc. 500km.
    Oh nice. I had a lovely week cycling in France a couple of years ago. Been wondering where to go for the next visit...
    I recommend Bordeaux to Biarritz. Cycling through the pine forests you could be 10 - 20 miles from the next human. And it is flat. I love flat.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    Miklosvar said:

    MattW said:

    Miklosvar said:

    TimS said:

    Talking of insurance, got my car renewal quote through today from Aviva. Up from £650 to £2,200. No thanks.

    Golly. Thought this sort of loyalty gouging had been outlawed.
    Have you picked up points? eg in the UK a mobile phone offence could add 50-100%.
    No, and this was a house policy.

    Cannot understand MPs and dukes and people getting done for mobiles in their own cars, everything has had flawless handsfree for a good decade.
    If I had £50 for the each driver I've seen either texting or holding a phone to their ear in the last week alone, I'd be so rich I could buy the DfE.

    That is, I would have £300.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    Oliver Price is out for 113 off 160. Well played the young man. Promising offspinner too.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,778
    Cookie said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
    Do you support all protesto-vandalism, or only for causes you agree with?
    Why the fuck would I support it for causes I disagree with?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,888
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
    This is partly correct. Ulrike Meinhof died at the age of 41 because of the resistance to her, from those she did not please, ensuring that what she did occurred no more.

    Whether it was suicide or murder matters little. The aphorisms of extremists apply also to them; an extremist is someone who does not get this.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,685

    Do we think England picking another seamer that Stokes really isn't able to bowl? And that knee is permanently f##ked.

    Yep. He's a batsman now.

    Although I do object to the BBC continuously saying England are playing without a spinner, which is a bit harsh of a man with a bowling average lower than his batting average and over 50 test wickets.

    Joe Root. He is definitely not a part time spinner, and that is surely part of the conversation in selection.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,167
    edited June 2023
    Miklosvar said:

    MattW said:

    Miklosvar said:

    TimS said:

    Talking of insurance, got my car renewal quote through today from Aviva. Up from £650 to £2,200. No thanks.

    Golly. Thought this sort of loyalty gouging had been outlawed.
    Have you picked up points? eg in the UK a mobile phone offence could add 50-100%.
    No, and this was a house policy.

    Cannot understand MPs and dukes and people getting done for mobiles in their own cars, everything has had flawless handsfree for a good decade.
    MPs and Dukes are people 2 u know 💕
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Cookie said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
    Do you support all protesto-vandalism, or only for causes you agree with?
    Why the fuck would I support it for causes I disagree with?
    Do you only drive or ride electric vehicles?

    Or are you one of those who supports the idea of the UK importing oil but not extracting any of our own?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    ydoethur said:

    Miklosvar said:

    MattW said:

    Miklosvar said:

    TimS said:

    Talking of insurance, got my car renewal quote through today from Aviva. Up from £650 to £2,200. No thanks.

    Golly. Thought this sort of loyalty gouging had been outlawed.
    Have you picked up points? eg in the UK a mobile phone offence could add 50-100%.
    No, and this was a house policy.

    Cannot understand MPs and dukes and people getting done for mobiles in their own cars, everything has had flawless handsfree for a good decade.
    If I had £50 for the each driver I've seen either texting or holding a phone to their ear in the last week alone, I'd be so rich I could buy the DfE.

    That is, I would have £300.
    You could video them like Jeremy Vine does.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,416
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Off topic, long read on social contagion and mental health problems - and how your world view may affect susceptibility:

    https://unherd.com/2023/06/is-liberal-society-making-us-ill/

    Written from a US perspective but there may be parallels here.

    Useful link, thank you.
    (continued...) Yes, it's from a US perspective (liberal vas conservative), yes it's used with reference to gender dysphoria (which is why it's on Unherd: if it was autism or depression would they have published it?), and I'm not sure all of it works (analysis by age group sets my teeth on edge and is subject to problems over time: it should be cohort analysis instead), but the central point - the pathologisation of behavior and the belief that the surgical/medical paradigm can be used for cases when it isn't - seems valid.
    (continued again...) you may recall my discussion from a few weeks ago in which I focussed on autism as a case where an initial solid case has been overexpanded to the point where it has become a fashionable self-diagnosed condition for the wealthy as opposed to a subject which a degree of medical (and statistical rigor) can be applied. Leon came back with a friend of his (he always has a friend with something or another, I think he collects them) who felt validated by a diagnosis of Asperger's (a disease which hasn't existed for over a decade) and concluded that it was her choice, which just illustrated the problem instead of curing it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Miklosvar said:

    MattW said:

    Miklosvar said:

    TimS said:

    Talking of insurance, got my car renewal quote through today from Aviva. Up from £650 to £2,200. No thanks.

    Golly. Thought this sort of loyalty gouging had been outlawed.
    Have you picked up points? eg in the UK a mobile phone offence could add 50-100%.
    No, and this was a house policy.

    Cannot understand MPs and dukes and people getting done for mobiles in their own cars, everything has had flawless handsfree for a good decade.
    If I had £50 for the each driver I've seen either texting or holding a phone to their ear in the last week alone, I'd be so rich I could buy the DfE.

    That is, I would have £300.
    You could video them like Jeremy Vine does.
    Yes, that would be clever of me, given I am driving myself.

    I do need to get a dashcam though.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955
    Sandpit said:

    eristdoof said:

    ...snip ...

    What we need is some actual management to reduce costs. And no, high costs don't mean high quality. And reducing costs isn't necessarily about cutting corners.

    ...snip ...

    This goes the other way too. When being prepared to pay high costs for high quality, you need good management to ensure you get the high quality you are paying for.

    This applied in the last company I worked for. The boss wanted a high quality new office, the contractors were always "trying it on" by using cheaper products that the company was paying for. Kept a couple of employees busy trying to check everything was done properly.

    I used to work for a large hotel company. The procurement team had a constant battle with contractors trying to reduce quality when we’d paid for the good stuff. Yes, we can tell the difference between marble and ceramic tiles, or between wood panels and cheap ply veneer!
    See: City of Edinburgh council.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,778
    Carnyx said:

    Dura's stance is distinctly at odds with the main strains of centrist dad, and also centre-right PB.

    I'm personally not sure if they're doing themselves any more favours with this approach. There's something about stopping the general flow of everyday activities, rather than activities as specific as fracking, that doesn't seem to be working for them at the moment.

    OTOH he can claim to have defended the realm at some risk to his skin, unlike most of us.
    That doesn't make my views worth more than anyone else's.

    I didn't do it for the realm. Very few people will risk their own life and kill other people, many times over, for the queen or the UK or Tony Blair. The psychological conditioning means you do it for your comrades. The people immediately around you.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Looking very easy for Australia.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955
    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TimS said:

    Talking of insurance, got my car renewal quote through today from Aviva. Up from £650 to £2,200. No thanks.

    Blimey. Got mine for £250 this year.
    What do you have, a C5?!
    Mine went up loads too. "Due to inflation".

    YOU ARE THE INFLATION
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Dura_Ace said:

    Cookie said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
    Do you support all protesto-vandalism, or only for causes you agree with?
    Why the fuck would I support it for causes I disagree with?
    I hate what you say but will defend to the death your right to protesto-vandalise about it
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772

    Do we think England picking another seamer that Stokes really isn't able to bowl? And that knee is permanently f##ked.

    Yep. He's a batsman now.

    Although I do object to the BBC continuously saying England are playing without a spinner, which is a bit harsh of a man with a bowling average lower than his batting average and over 50 test wickets.

    Joe Root. He is definitely not a part time spinner, and that is surely part of the conversation in selection.
    To be fair, he does average over 50 with the bat and a great many part-timers have averages in the 40s.

    After all, if they were worse than that they wouldn't bowl at all.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,778

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
    They’ve encroached upon a holy place of English gammonry, right up there with Pussy Riot doing their thing in Moscow Cathedral in terms of transgression.
    Mordaunt really needs to be seen at one of the tests for full stroke-inducing effect, possibly drop kicking a vegan.
    Lords = Gammon Kaaba
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,035
    .
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TimS said:

    Talking of insurance, got my car renewal quote through today from Aviva. Up from £650 to £2,200. No thanks.

    Blimey. Got mine for £250 this year.
    What do you have, a C5?!
    Mine went up loads too. "Due to inflation".

    YOU ARE THE INFLATION
    Used car price inflation had turned negative in the last couple of years, after briefly going up during the pandemic. The cost of replacing a car like-for-like goes down every year, although there will have been inflation in repair costs.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,416
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Off topic, long read on social contagion and mental health problems - and how your world view may affect susceptibility:

    https://unherd.com/2023/06/is-liberal-society-making-us-ill/

    Written from a US perspective but there may be parallels here.

    Useful link, thank you.
    (continued...) Yes, it's from a US perspective (liberal vas conservative), yes it's used with reference to gender dysphoria (which is why it's on Unherd: if it was autism or depression would they have published it?), and I'm not sure all of it works (analysis by age group sets my teeth on edge and is subject to problems over time: it should be cohort analysis instead), but the central point - the pathologisation of behavior and the belief that the surgical/medical paradigm can be used for cases when it isn't - seems valid.
    (continued again...) you may recall my discussion from a few weeks ago in which I focussed on autism as a case where an initial solid case has been overexpanded to the point where it has become a fashionable self-diagnosed condition for the wealthy as opposed to a subject which a degree of medical (and statistical rigor) can be applied. Leon came back with a friend of his (he always has a friend with something or another, I think he collects them) who felt validated by a diagnosis of Asperger's (a disease which hasn't existed for over a decade) and concluded that it was her choice, which just illustrated the problem instead of curing it.
    (continued again...) however I think the writer of the article Carlotta posted chickened out of the logical conclusion to his article, which is that autism spectrum disorder and the other disorders shouldn't be subject to a medical paradigm. But he doesn't go there because (as Leon pointed out) if rich people want a diagnosis, they will get one because they can pay for it, and if the disease is actually fictional that is not a problem unless the cheque bounces.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,152
    A
    algarkirk said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
    This is partly correct. Ulrike Meinhof died at the age of 41 because of the resistance to her, from those she did not please, ensuring that what she did occurred no more.

    Whether it was suicide or murder matters little. The aphorisms of extremists apply also to them; an extremist is someone who does not get this.
    algarkirk said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
    This is partly correct. Ulrike Meinhof died at the age of 41 because of the resistance to her, from those she did not please, ensuring that what she did occurred no more.

    Whether it was suicide or murder matters little. The aphorisms of extremists apply also to them; an extremist is someone who does not get this.
    And points to a simple fact - extreme actions create extreme reactions. Which is what some of them want.

    In Peru, for example, the intellectuals of the Left tried going full Mao. They thought they would Shock And Awe society with their ruthlessnes.

    They discovered that this led to Vladimiro Lenin Ilich Montesinos*, the man in charge of internal security, using the Little Red Book on *them*.

    *Yes, really. His parents were slightly left wing. So, of course he rebelled against that....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Booooooooooooo
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,416
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Off topic, long read on social contagion and mental health problems - and how your world view may affect susceptibility:

    https://unherd.com/2023/06/is-liberal-society-making-us-ill/

    Written from a US perspective but there may be parallels here.

    Useful link, thank you.
    (continued...) Yes, it's from a US perspective (liberal vas conservative), yes it's used with reference to gender dysphoria (which is why it's on Unherd: if it was autism or depression would they have published it?), and I'm not sure all of it works (analysis by age group sets my teeth on edge and is subject to problems over time: it should be cohort analysis instead), but the central point - the pathologisation of behavior and the belief that the surgical/medical paradigm can be used for cases when it isn't - seems valid.
    (continued again...) you may recall my discussion from a few weeks ago in which I focussed on autism as a case where an initial solid case has been overexpanded to the point where it has become a fashionable self-diagnosed condition for the wealthy as opposed to a subject which a degree of medical (and statistical rigor) can be applied. Leon came back with a friend of his (he always has a friend with something or another, I think he collects them) who felt validated by a diagnosis of Asperger's (a disease which hasn't existed for over a decade) and concluded that it was her choice, which just illustrated the problem instead of curing it.
    (continued again...) however I think the writer of the article Carlotta posted chickened out of the logical conclusion to his article, which is that autism spectrum disorder and the other disorders shouldn't be subject to a medical paradigm. But he doesn't go there because (as Leon pointed out) if rich people want a diagnosis, they will get one because they can pay for it, and if the disease is actually fictional that is not a problem unless the cheque bounces.
    (continued and concluded). Thank you for coming to my TED talk. Orange juice and pastries are in the foyer.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156

    Do we think England picking another seamer that Stokes really isn't able to bowl? And that knee is permanently f##ked.

    Yep. He's a batsman now.

    Although I do object to the BBC continuously saying England are playing without a spinner, which is a bit harsh of a man with a bowling average lower than his batting average and over 50 test wickets.

    Joe Root. He is definitely not a part time spinner, and that is surely part of the conversation in selection.
    He takes less than a wicket every two tests. Of course he is not a full time spinner. He is better than an average part time spinner, but he is very much the definition of a part time spinner. He will spend far less time practising his bowling than his batting. His bowling on its own could in no way justify his selection.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited June 2023
    During rain delay they should put the ecofascists in the stocks and invite the crowd to make their feelings known.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,959
    edited June 2023

    Do we think England picking another seamer that Stokes really isn't able to bowl? And that knee is permanently f##ked.

    Yep. He's a batsman now.

    Although I do object to the BBC continuously saying England are playing without a spinner, which is a bit harsh of a man with a bowling average lower than his batting average and over 50 test wickets.

    Joe Root. He is definitely not a part time spinner, and that is surely part of the conversation in selection.
    I watched Stokes bowling at Edgbaston from side on. He was bowling about the same speed as the fastest women bowlers in the Trent Bridge match.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited June 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Do we think England picking another seamer that Stokes really isn't able to bowl? And that knee is permanently f##ked.

    Yep. He's a batsman now.

    Although I do object to the BBC continuously saying England are playing without a spinner, which is a bit harsh of a man with a bowling average lower than his batting average and over 50 test wickets.

    Joe Root. He is definitely not a part time spinner, and that is surely part of the conversation in selection.
    I watched Stokes bowling at Edgbaston from side on. He was bowling about the same speed as the fastest women bowlers in the Trent Bridge match.
    No he isn't. He is still significantly quicker. He was still bowling at 80mph, with the odd quicker one, but early in his career he was more 85mph with the nearly 90mph quicker one.

    Women "fast" bowlers are in the 65-70mph range.

    I played semi-pro club cricket & wasn't really fast enough at high 70s (had to be on the spot) & regularly faced 80-85mph. The difference was accuracy. I faced international bowlers like Otis Gibson & Alex Tudor and they didn't bowl garbage while being 85mph, where as the lesser players gave you a1-2 balls an over that were able to score off.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Off topic, long read on social contagion and mental health problems - and how your world view may affect susceptibility:

    https://unherd.com/2023/06/is-liberal-society-making-us-ill/

    Written from a US perspective but there may be parallels here.

    Useful link, thank you.
    (continued...) Yes, it's from a US perspective (liberal vas conservative), yes it's used with reference to gender dysphoria (which is why it's on Unherd: if it was autism or depression would they have published it?), and I'm not sure all of it works (analysis by age group sets my teeth on edge and is subject to problems over time: it should be cohort analysis instead), but the central point - the pathologisation of behavior and the belief that the surgical/medical paradigm can be used for cases when it isn't - seems valid.
    It doesn’t just cover gender dysphoria - for example, the much higher incidence of “long COVID” in young women, with parents who are also suffering from “long COVID” when we know the young were least affected by COVID.

    The fundamental point is the medicalisation of treatment where other solutions may be more appropriate.

    I’m sure it’s not a coincidence that only one leading western country had an opioid epidemic. The one where a “Pain Society” promoted the prescribing of “harmless, non-addictive” drugs to a susceptible population. Only to be closed down when links to the drug manufacturers were revealed. Hundreds of thousands dead.

    Couldn’t possibly happen again, could it?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,937
    Miklosvar said:

    MattW said:

    Miklosvar said:

    TimS said:

    Talking of insurance, got my car renewal quote through today from Aviva. Up from £650 to £2,200. No thanks.

    Golly. Thought this sort of loyalty gouging had been outlawed.
    Have you picked up points? eg in the UK a mobile phone offence could add 50-100%.
    No, and this was a house policy.

    Cannot understand MPs and dukes and people getting done for mobiles in their own cars, everything has had flawless handsfree for a good decade.
    Thanks for the tesponse.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,035
    edited June 2023
    Love the TV shots from the Long Room. To think of all the people who have walked through, or stood in, that room over the years.

    Looks like umpires about to call them back out, thankfully a short interruption.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,081
    Dura_Ace said:

    Cookie said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
    Do you support all protesto-vandalism, or only for causes you agree with?
    Why the fuck would I support it for causes I disagree with?
    I find your position baffling. The means of change are more important in the long run than the change itself.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156

    Andy_JS said:

    Do we think England picking another seamer that Stokes really isn't able to bowl? And that knee is permanently f##ked.

    Yep. He's a batsman now.

    Although I do object to the BBC continuously saying England are playing without a spinner, which is a bit harsh of a man with a bowling average lower than his batting average and over 50 test wickets.

    Joe Root. He is definitely not a part time spinner, and that is surely part of the conversation in selection.
    I watched Stokes bowling at Edgbaston from side on. He was bowling about the same speed as the fastest women bowlers in the Trent Bridge match.
    No he isn't. He is still significantly quicker. He was still bowling at 80mph, with the odd quicker one, but early in his career he was more 85mph with the nearly 90mph quicker one.

    Women "fast" bowlers are in the 65-70mph range.

    I played semi-pro club cricket & wasn't really fast enough at high 70s (had to be on the spot) & regularly faced 80-85mph.
    There are women bowlers capable of spells around and balls above 80mph so I think fast is more 70s plus now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,263
    Cookie said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Cookie said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
    Do you support all protesto-vandalism, or only for causes you agree with?
    Why the fuck would I support it for causes I disagree with?
    I find your position baffling. The means of change are more important in the long run than the change itself.
    Dura is perhaps an end justifies the means guy ?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,869
    MattW said:

    Morning all. My morning thoughts.

    1 - Is Daniel Korski toast yet? Not that it will make much difference to the identity of the next Major.

    2 - The 40% water bill increase sounds like either industry scaremongering, or media sensationalising.

    25% sounds more like it, and it is wished on us - as it will be across the UK and across Europe since we all have the same sewerage in rivers issue - by lobbies demanding umpteen billions of investment.

    Since English water consumption is about 25% above the European best practice (140l pppd vs 105l in Denmark), if peeps invest in reducing their consumption (eg rainwater collection for the garden using a couple of Industrial Bulk Containers and an automatic watering system) and change habits, then bills will stay approx the same.

    Personal responsibility required.

    One thing I find fascinating is that Greens inm my experience are demanding that millions of tons of concrete (presumably) be used to build new reservoirs. Greens? Rather than control consumption. What happened to Reduce, Reuse, Recycle?

    Why would we not build new reservoirs to cope with a vastly increased population? Scratching around for ways to stave off a hosepipe ban in Britain of all places is grotesque.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited June 2023

    Andy_JS said:

    Do we think England picking another seamer that Stokes really isn't able to bowl? And that knee is permanently f##ked.

    Yep. He's a batsman now.

    Although I do object to the BBC continuously saying England are playing without a spinner, which is a bit harsh of a man with a bowling average lower than his batting average and over 50 test wickets.

    Joe Root. He is definitely not a part time spinner, and that is surely part of the conversation in selection.
    I watched Stokes bowling at Edgbaston from side on. He was bowling about the same speed as the fastest women bowlers in the Trent Bridge match.
    No he isn't. He is still significantly quicker. He was still bowling at 80mph, with the odd quicker one, but early in his career he was more 85mph with the nearly 90mph quicker one.

    Women "fast" bowlers are in the 65-70mph range.

    I played semi-pro club cricket & wasn't really fast enough at high 70s (had to be on the spot) & regularly faced 80-85mph.
    There are women bowlers capable of spells around and balls above 80mph so I think fast is more 70s plus now.
    No, that's not true. The fastest ball ever recorded in women's cricket is 80mph & seen as amost certainly an error (in the same way as 100mph+ deliveries in mens probably were too, when they were probably no more than 95.).

    https://www.wisden.com/stories/wpl-are-claiming-ellyse-perry-bowled-the-fastest-ball-in-womens-cricket-heres-why-thats-almost-certainly-nonsense

    As i say, 80mph is normal for Saturday mens semi-pro cricket.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,152

    MattW said:

    Morning all. My morning thoughts.

    1 - Is Daniel Korski toast yet? Not that it will make much difference to the identity of the next Major.

    2 - The 40% water bill increase sounds like either industry scaremongering, or media sensationalising.

    25% sounds more like it, and it is wished on us - as it will be across the UK and across Europe since we all have the same sewerage in rivers issue - by lobbies demanding umpteen billions of investment.

    Since English water consumption is about 25% above the European best practice (140l pppd vs 105l in Denmark), if peeps invest in reducing their consumption (eg rainwater collection for the garden using a couple of Industrial Bulk Containers and an automatic watering system) and change habits, then bills will stay approx the same.

    Personal responsibility required.

    One thing I find fascinating is that Greens inm my experience are demanding that millions of tons of concrete (presumably) be used to build new reservoirs. Greens? Rather than control consumption. What happened to Reduce, Reuse, Recycle?

    Why would we not build new reservoirs to cope with a vastly increased population? Scratching around for ways to stave off a hosepipe ban in Britain of all places is grotesque.
    Confluence of interests.

    All Development Is Bad + NIMBYS + Government wanting (via) regulator) lower bills + Companies want to spend less = huge coalition.

    Hence no reservoirs.

    Note that the major piece of water infrastructure built recently in the South East is the Thames Super Sewer, where most of the work is happening underground. The actual points where it is being accessed from the surface were furiously fought over.

    "Build the windfarm out sea. Where the real estate is free. And it's far away from me."
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,416
    edited June 2023

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Off topic, long read on social contagion and mental health problems - and how your world view may affect susceptibility:

    https://unherd.com/2023/06/is-liberal-society-making-us-ill/

    Written from a US perspective but there may be parallels here.

    Useful link, thank you.
    (continued...) Yes, it's from a US perspective (liberal vas conservative), yes it's used with reference to gender dysphoria (which is why it's on Unherd: if it was autism or depression would they have published it?), and I'm not sure all of it works (analysis by age group sets my teeth on edge and is subject to problems over time: it should be cohort analysis instead), but the central point - the pathologisation of behavior and the belief that the surgical/medical paradigm can be used for cases when it isn't - seems valid.
    It doesn’t just cover gender dysphoria - for example, the much higher incidence of “long COVID” in young women, with parents who are also suffering from “long COVID” when we know the young were least affected by COVID.

    The fundamental point is the medicalisation of treatment where other solutions may be more appropriate.

    I’m sure it’s not a coincidence that only one leading western country had an opioid epidemic. The one where a “Pain Society” promoted the prescribing of “harmless, non-addictive” drugs to a susceptible population. Only to be closed down when links to the drug manufacturers were revealed. Hundreds of thousands dead.

    Couldn’t possibly happen again, could it?
    As you can see from my later comments (see list below) I actually agree with you in that respect, albeit from an entirely different direction. Where we part company is why this is happening and what to do about it. You think this is social contagion, some strange miasma floating thru the ether and augmented by the internet. I think it's rich people looking for justification - "Look! I'm really ill! I have a PIECE OF PAPER SIGNED BY AN EXPERT" - for what they've already decided to do. As long as Leon's friend likes being an Aspie, and Leon validates her for Leon reasons, the diagnosis and everything associated with it (doctors, doctor's fees, scrips) will remain, even if the disease no longer exists.

    pt 1: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4453387#Comment_4453387
    pt 2: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4453405#Comment_4453405
    pt 3: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4453450#Comment_4453450
    pt 4: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4453460#Comment_4453460
    pt 5: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4453463#Comment_4453463
    pt 6: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4453477#Comment_4453477
  • Away from the Cricket, its great to see increasing reports of Ukraine liberating villages that Russia has occupied since 2014.

    Although there's a long way to go yet to liberate all occupied land, that in some parts of the country Russia is already going backwards is really positive news.

    Pressure needs to be maintained and support given to Ukraine to ensure they can and will liberate every inch of their occupied land.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    All this talk on here this morning of the economy being in a dire state, in terms of construction in Southern Hampshire, its booming. Loads of companies have stopped tendering as they have enough work for the rest of the year and beyond.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura's stance is distinctly at odds with the main strains of centrist dad, and also centre-right PB.

    I'm personally not sure if they're doing themselves any more favours with this approach. There's something about stopping the general flow of everyday activities, rather than activities as specific as fracking, that doesn't seem to be working for them at the moment.

    OTOH he can claim to have defended the realm at some risk to his skin, unlike most of us.
    That doesn't make my views worth more than anyone else's.

    I didn't do it for the realm. Very few people will risk their own life and kill other people, many times over, for the queen or the UK or Tony Blair. The psychological conditioning means you do it for your comrades. The people immediately around you.
    Quite so - but it is a common gammon argument, if only by implication. Homes for Heroes sloganeering, Kipling's poem about Tommy Atkins, that sort of mentality. Never mind what the heroes themselves think.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,152
    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura's stance is distinctly at odds with the main strains of centrist dad, and also centre-right PB.

    I'm personally not sure if they're doing themselves any more favours with this approach. There's something about stopping the general flow of everyday activities, rather than activities as specific as fracking, that doesn't seem to be working for them at the moment.

    OTOH he can claim to have defended the realm at some risk to his skin, unlike most of us.
    That doesn't make my views worth more than anyone else's.

    I didn't do it for the realm. Very few people will risk their own life and kill other people, many times over, for the queen or the UK or Tony Blair. The psychological conditioning means you do it for your comrades. The people immediately around you.
    Quite so - but it is a common gammon argument, if only by implication. Homes for Heroes sloganeering, Kipling's poem about Tommy Atkins, that sort of mentality. Never mind what the heroes themselves think.
    Fan of Starship Troopers?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura's stance is distinctly at odds with the main strains of centrist dad, and also centre-right PB.

    I'm personally not sure if they're doing themselves any more favours with this approach. There's something about stopping the general flow of everyday activities, rather than activities as specific as fracking, that doesn't seem to be working for them at the moment.

    OTOH he can claim to have defended the realm at some risk to his skin, unlike most of us.
    That doesn't make my views worth more than anyone else's.

    I didn't do it for the realm. Very few people will risk their own life and kill other people, many times over, for the queen or the UK or Tony Blair. The psychological conditioning means you do it for your comrades. The people immediately around you.
    Quite so - but it is a common gammon argument, if only by implication. Homes for Heroes sloganeering, Kipling's poem about Tommy Atkins, that sort of mentality. Never mind what the heroes themselves think.
    Fan of Starship Troopers?
    The Heinlein book? Looked at it long ago - didn't like it. I was much more into Haldeman's Forever War. So curious as to your point ...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156

    Andy_JS said:

    Do we think England picking another seamer that Stokes really isn't able to bowl? And that knee is permanently f##ked.

    Yep. He's a batsman now.

    Although I do object to the BBC continuously saying England are playing without a spinner, which is a bit harsh of a man with a bowling average lower than his batting average and over 50 test wickets.

    Joe Root. He is definitely not a part time spinner, and that is surely part of the conversation in selection.
    I watched Stokes bowling at Edgbaston from side on. He was bowling about the same speed as the fastest women bowlers in the Trent Bridge match.
    No he isn't. He is still significantly quicker. He was still bowling at 80mph, with the odd quicker one, but early in his career he was more 85mph with the nearly 90mph quicker one.

    Women "fast" bowlers are in the 65-70mph range.

    I played semi-pro club cricket & wasn't really fast enough at high 70s (had to be on the spot) & regularly faced 80-85mph.
    There are women bowlers capable of spells around and balls above 80mph so I think fast is more 70s plus now.
    No, that's not true. The fastest ball ever recorded in women's cricket is 80mph & seen as amost certainly an error (in the same way as 100mph+ deliveries in mens probably were too).

    https://www.wisden.com/stories/wpl-are-claiming-ellyse-perry-bowled-the-fastest-ball-in-womens-cricket-heres-why-thats-almost-certainly-nonsense

    As i say, 80mph is normal for Saturday mens semi-pro cricket.
    That particular ball may or may not be incorrect, but Lauren Filer bowled up to 76mph in the Ashes test, Shabnim Ismail and Lea Tahuhu are regularly above 75mph.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited June 2023

    All this talk on here this morning of the economy being in a dire state, in terms of construction in Southern Hampshire, its booming. Loads of companies have stopped tendering as they have enough work for the rest of the year and beyond.

    I think there are massive regional differences. Everytime i go to London, the bars, restaurants etc are absolutely bursting, elsewhere not so much.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,640
    0-0 in PMQs. Nothing happening. Both Keir and Rishi looking forward to the summer break.

    Looking forward to the GE debates 😈
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,416
    Dura_Ace said:

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof

    ...who achieved exactly none of her goals and died in prison.

  • Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura's stance is distinctly at odds with the main strains of centrist dad, and also centre-right PB.

    I'm personally not sure if they're doing themselves any more favours with this approach. There's something about stopping the general flow of everyday activities, rather than activities as specific as fracking, that doesn't seem to be working for them at the moment.

    OTOH he can claim to have defended the realm at some risk to his skin, unlike most of us.
    That doesn't make my views worth more than anyone else's.

    I didn't do it for the realm. Very few people will risk their own life and kill other people, many times over, for the queen or the UK or Tony Blair. The psychological conditioning means you do it for your comrades. The people immediately around you.
    Quite so - but it is a common gammon argument, if only by implication. Homes for Heroes sloganeering, Kipling's poem about Tommy Atkins, that sort of mentality. Never mind what the heroes themselves think.
    Fan of Starship Troopers?
    Or a fan of Hot Gossip?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,778
    edited June 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura's stance is distinctly at odds with the main strains of centrist dad, and also centre-right PB.

    I'm personally not sure if they're doing themselves any more favours with this approach. There's something about stopping the general flow of everyday activities, rather than activities as specific as fracking, that doesn't seem to be working for them at the moment.

    OTOH he can claim to have defended the realm at some risk to his skin, unlike most of us.
    That doesn't make my views worth more than anyone else's.

    I didn't do it for the realm. Very few people will risk their own life and kill other people, many times over, for the queen or the UK or Tony Blair. The psychological conditioning means you do it for your comrades. The people immediately around you.
    Quite so - but it is a common gammon argument, if only by implication. Homes for Heroes sloganeering, Kipling's poem about Tommy Atkins, that sort of mentality. Never mind what the heroes themselves think.
    A scrimmage in a border station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,035

    Away from the Cricket, its great to see increasing reports of Ukraine liberating villages that Russia has occupied since 2014.

    Although there's a long way to go yet to liberate all occupied land, that in some parts of the country Russia is already going backwards is really positive news.

    Pressure needs to be maintained and support given to Ukraine to ensure they can and will liberate every inch of their occupied land.

    Yes, it’s not really making the news, but the last few weeks have been good for Ukraine, with a lot of territory liberated, including as you say some villages captured in 2014.

    Watching the orcs arguing with each other on Saturday was hillarious, the best day of the last 16 months. There’s an opportunity to take advantage of the chaos, and the defenders are doing a good job of it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
    Under which definition this is a protest.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,081
    Nigelb said:

    Cookie said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Cookie said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
    Do you support all protesto-vandalism, or only for causes you agree with?
    Why the fuck would I support it for causes I disagree with?
    I find your position baffling. The means of change are more important in the long run than the change itself.
    Dura is perhaps an end justifies the means guy ?
    I can understand that approach, if not sympathise with it (hard to point to examples of happy societies where that happiness has been won through violence rather than persuasion).
    But in this case, the end appears to be a hardening of opinion against the eco-nutters.
    I mean, I'm all in favour of finding alternatives to oil. It's a not inconsiderable aspect of my job. But this lot make me want to go and use large diesel cars for pointlessly small journeys.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,035

    0-0 in PMQs. Nothing happening. Both Keir and Rishi looking forward to the summer break.

    Looking forward to the GE debates 😈

    Maybe they’re heading off to Lord’s this afternoon.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,976
    Time for some legitimate anti popery.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Off topic, long read on social contagion and mental health problems - and how your world view may affect susceptibility:

    https://unherd.com/2023/06/is-liberal-society-making-us-ill/

    Written from a US perspective but there may be parallels here.

    Useful link, thank you.
    (continued...) Yes, it's from a US perspective (liberal vas conservative), yes it's used with reference to gender dysphoria (which is why it's on Unherd: if it was autism or depression would they have published it?), and I'm not sure all of it works (analysis by age group sets my teeth on edge and is subject to problems over time: it should be cohort analysis instead), but the central point - the pathologisation of behavior and the belief that the surgical/medical paradigm can be used for cases when it isn't - seems valid.
    It doesn’t just cover gender dysphoria - for example, the much higher incidence of “long COVID” in young women, with parents who are also suffering from “long COVID” when we know the young were least affected by COVID.

    The fundamental point is the medicalisation of treatment where other solutions may be more appropriate.

    I’m sure it’s not a coincidence that only one leading western country had an opioid epidemic. The one where a “Pain Society” promoted the prescribing of “harmless, non-addictive” drugs to a susceptible population. Only to be closed down when links to the drug manufacturers were revealed. Hundreds of thousands dead.

    Couldn’t possibly happen again, could it?
    I think it's rich people looking for justification -
    It would be interesting to interrogate the demographics of the parents of children referred to GIDS at the Tavistock - given their record keeping the data may well not exist. But I suspect you’re right.

    I believe there are multiple factors involved in the increase in the diagnosis of gender dysphoria - social contagion is only one of them.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited June 2023

    Andy_JS said:

    Do we think England picking another seamer that Stokes really isn't able to bowl? And that knee is permanently f##ked.

    Yep. He's a batsman now.

    Although I do object to the BBC continuously saying England are playing without a spinner, which is a bit harsh of a man with a bowling average lower than his batting average and over 50 test wickets.

    Joe Root. He is definitely not a part time spinner, and that is surely part of the conversation in selection.
    I watched Stokes bowling at Edgbaston from side on. He was bowling about the same speed as the fastest women bowlers in the Trent Bridge match.
    No he isn't. He is still significantly quicker. He was still bowling at 80mph, with the odd quicker one, but early in his career he was more 85mph with the nearly 90mph quicker one.

    Women "fast" bowlers are in the 65-70mph range.

    I played semi-pro club cricket & wasn't really fast enough at high 70s (had to be on the spot) & regularly faced 80-85mph.
    There are women bowlers capable of spells around and balls above 80mph so I think fast is more 70s plus now.
    No, that's not true. The fastest ball ever recorded in women's cricket is 80mph & seen as amost certainly an error (in the same way as 100mph+ deliveries in mens probably were too).

    https://www.wisden.com/stories/wpl-are-claiming-ellyse-perry-bowled-the-fastest-ball-in-womens-cricket-heres-why-thats-almost-certainly-nonsense

    As i say, 80mph is normal for Saturday mens semi-pro cricket.
    That particular ball may or may not be incorrect, but Lauren Filer bowled up to 76mph in the Ashes test, Shabnim Ismail and Lea Tahuhu are regularly above 75mph.
    Filer average is speed ~71mph

    The Ashes 2023: England must 'go harder' to beat Australia after Test loss, says Jon Lewis - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/66022892

    That is the "top end" of womens cricket in the same way as saying Mark Wood at average 90mph, fast ball 95mph...that isn't typical.

    70mph in men semi-pro cricket is dobber bowling.
  • Tough chance but Root drops Khawaja on 1.

    Warner dropped by Pope off Broad.

    That's both of them now and still no wickets ...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,035
    Ooh, should have caught that!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited June 2023
    Sandpit said:

    .

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TimS said:

    Talking of insurance, got my car renewal quote through today from Aviva. Up from £650 to £2,200. No thanks.

    Blimey. Got mine for £250 this year.
    What do you have, a C5?!
    Mine went up loads too. "Due to inflation".

    YOU ARE THE INFLATION
    Used car price inflation had turned negative in the last couple of years, after briefly going up during the pandemic. The cost of replacing a car like-for-like goes down every year, although there will have been inflation in repair costs.
    I've looked back at what I paid for car insurance over the last few years and my renewal quotes.

    2023 248
    2022 224 -> 290
    2021 190 -> 307 (Must have lowered the excess or something compared to 2020)
    2020 187 -> 187
    2019 222
    2018 301 -> 317 (Same insurer)
    2017 279 (Same insurer)
    2016 242

    Think 2018 -> 19 was when I had some points drop off for the 5 yr rule.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,230
    Andy_JS said:

    Just back after four weeks in the Greek islands, a few observations:


    - much busier than 2022
    - passport queues non-existent on arriving and leaving despite need for stamps
    - cost of eating out slightly higher than 2022 but portion size and quality noticeably affected
    - weather unusually unsettled, with rain some days and cool wind most days, poorer weather than back home in Yorkshire Dales
    - Americans by far the highest proportion of tourist, Chinese tourists returning, no Russians
    - designer boutiques and cocktail bars driving out traditional businesses even on less popular islands

    Overall, the traditional Greek Island experience is getting harder to find.

    Never been to Greece. I think we (my parents) considered going there in the 80s but it didn't happen.
    Been once. Years ago. Our first holiday as a couple. Crete. The whole "shitty bog roll in a bin" vibe meant that Wor Lass wasn't keen on returning. So we haven't.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    That's as simple as they'll come and Pope knows it. So does Broad !
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302

    Fishing said:

    Electorally it may feel like 1997 but politically and economically the country is in a very different place.

    This is what Starmer, Reeves and co are failing to understand.

    It worries me what happens next.

    I am not so sure. I think that Labour in power is going to be a lot more radical than many expect. Given the state the country is in, what other choice is there? That everyone can see just what a mess it is out there gives Labour the leeway to do that - and there are some relatively quick wins around planning reform, housebuilding, infrastructure investment and closer ties to the EU that the Tories just cannot pursue. Labour has to establish a direction of travel and demonstrate that it is producing results to win a second term. I think Labour understands that. Talk cautiously, win and act radical is a much better electoral and political strategy than talk radical and lose.

    The quick wins you mention are mostly illusory. Planning reform and housebuilding have defeated every government for decades, there's no money for significant infrastructure investment and its benefits would take years to show up anyway, and closer ties to the EU, whatever those are, would not help much if at all for a long time either, even if the EU let us, which they show no sign of doing. And their fantasies about green growth and debts to the public sector unions etc would hit growth rather than help it.

    The Conservatives have followed basically Labour policies in interfering in the economy, screwing the enterprising and productive, failed industrial policies and disastrous green crap and that's got us to where we are - no growth. Except, maybe, housebuilding, it'll be even worse under Labour.

    Yes, that is the right wing line on all this. Proper Conservatism has not been tried and, as a result, we are in a spiral of unending, hopeless decline and things can only get worse. My view is different. I think a decision to no longer govern solely for the Boomer generation will open up a lot of possibilities. And Labour can make that decision because it does not rely on Boomer votes. Will it be easy or pain free? Absolutely not. Will there be a quick turnaround? No chance at all. But that does not mean there is no point in doing it. If Labour can demonstrate some progress after a five year term, memories of the absolute mess the Tories have made over the last 13 years will do the rest.
    "Government by the boomer generation for the boomer generation" began with New Labour, so I think you're just putting a partisan gloss on the same observation.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,325
    Sandpit said:

    Love the TV shots from the Long Room. To think of all the people who have walked through, or stood in, that room over the years.

    Looks like umpires about to call them back out, thankfully a short interruption.

    Join Middlesex and you can march in there as if you owned the place. In fact, on a cold April morning with a brisk nor'easterly whipping off the Nursery End, it's the only sensible place to be. Enjoy the obvious relief on the face of skittled batsmen as they hurry back into the warmth.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,152
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura's stance is distinctly at odds with the main strains of centrist dad, and also centre-right PB.

    I'm personally not sure if they're doing themselves any more favours with this approach. There's something about stopping the general flow of everyday activities, rather than activities as specific as fracking, that doesn't seem to be working for them at the moment.

    OTOH he can claim to have defended the realm at some risk to his skin, unlike most of us.
    That doesn't make my views worth more than anyone else's.

    I didn't do it for the realm. Very few people will risk their own life and kill other people, many times over, for the queen or the UK or Tony Blair. The psychological conditioning means you do it for your comrades. The people immediately around you.
    Quite so - but it is a common gammon argument, if only by implication. Homes for Heroes sloganeering, Kipling's poem about Tommy Atkins, that sort of mentality. Never mind what the heroes themselves think.
    Fan of Starship Troopers?
    The Heinlein book? Looked at it long ago - didn't like it. I was much more into Haldeman's Forever War. So curious as to your point ...
    Society run by military veterans. Only.

    Never understand why Verhoeven wasted his time on the book - he should have made Forever War. Instead he made a bad version of "Armor" by John Steakley - several scenes are straight out of that book.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,035
    edited June 2023

    Sandpit said:

    Love the TV shots from the Long Room. To think of all the people who have walked through, or stood in, that room over the years.

    Looks like umpires about to call them back out, thankfully a short interruption.

    Join Middlesex and you can march in there as if you owned the place. In fact, on a cold April morning with a brisk nor'easterly whipping off the Nursery End, it's the only sensible place to be. Enjoy the obvious relief on the face of skittled batsmen as they hurry back into the warmth.
    Yes, a friend of mine joined the MCCC, as there isn’t half a lifetime’s waiting list for that one. It’s pretty much an access all areas pass - except for this week. He’s still hoping his egg and bacon tie turns up by the time he retires.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura's stance is distinctly at odds with the main strains of centrist dad, and also centre-right PB.

    I'm personally not sure if they're doing themselves any more favours with this approach. There's something about stopping the general flow of everyday activities, rather than activities as specific as fracking, that doesn't seem to be working for them at the moment.

    OTOH he can claim to have defended the realm at some risk to his skin, unlike most of us.
    That doesn't make my views worth more than anyone else's.

    I didn't do it for the realm. Very few people will risk their own life and kill other people, many times over, for the queen or the UK or Tony Blair. The psychological conditioning means you do it for your comrades. The people immediately around you.
    Quite so - but it is a common gammon argument, if only by implication. Homes for Heroes sloganeering, Kipling's poem about Tommy Atkins, that sort of mentality. Never mind what the heroes themselves think.
    Fan of Starship Troopers?
    The Heinlein book? Looked at it long ago - didn't like it. I was much more into Haldeman's Forever War. So curious as to your point ...
    Society run by military veterans. Only.

    Never understand why Verhoeven wasted his time on the book - he should have made Forever War. Instead he made a bad version of "Armor" by John Steakley - several scenes are straight out of that book.

    Ah, thanks.

    Come to think of it: is anyone actually making Forever War as a film? There seem to have been several starts.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156

    Andy_JS said:

    Do we think England picking another seamer that Stokes really isn't able to bowl? And that knee is permanently f##ked.

    Yep. He's a batsman now.

    Although I do object to the BBC continuously saying England are playing without a spinner, which is a bit harsh of a man with a bowling average lower than his batting average and over 50 test wickets.

    Joe Root. He is definitely not a part time spinner, and that is surely part of the conversation in selection.
    I watched Stokes bowling at Edgbaston from side on. He was bowling about the same speed as the fastest women bowlers in the Trent Bridge match.
    No he isn't. He is still significantly quicker. He was still bowling at 80mph, with the odd quicker one, but early in his career he was more 85mph with the nearly 90mph quicker one.

    Women "fast" bowlers are in the 65-70mph range.

    I played semi-pro club cricket & wasn't really fast enough at high 70s (had to be on the spot) & regularly faced 80-85mph.
    There are women bowlers capable of spells around and balls above 80mph so I think fast is more 70s plus now.
    No, that's not true. The fastest ball ever recorded in women's cricket is 80mph & seen as amost certainly an error (in the same way as 100mph+ deliveries in mens probably were too).

    https://www.wisden.com/stories/wpl-are-claiming-ellyse-perry-bowled-the-fastest-ball-in-womens-cricket-heres-why-thats-almost-certainly-nonsense

    As i say, 80mph is normal for Saturday mens semi-pro cricket.
    That particular ball may or may not be incorrect, but Lauren Filer bowled up to 76mph in the Ashes test, Shabnim Ismail and Lea Tahuhu are regularly above 75mph.
    Filer average is speed ~71mph

    The Ashes 2023: England must 'go harder' to beat Australia after Test loss, says Jon Lewis - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/66022892

    That is the "top end" of womens cricket in the same way as saying Mark Wood at average 90mph, fast ball 95mph...that isn't typical.

    70mph in men semi-pro cricket is dobber bowling.
    Fast bowlers aren't supposed to be typical. I would consider Wood, Archer, prime Harmison fast bowlers but not someone like Broad. A lot of tests wont have anyone on either side who would be rated fast by Wisden/Cricinfo. Anyway it is what it is. A handful of women bowl over 75mph, and to me that makes those at 65-70 fast medium, not fast.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Cookie said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Cookie said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Idiots at Lords.

    What exactly do they expect to gain from this?

    What happened? I was listening on the radio but they didn't really explain much, just that play was disrupted.
    Just Stop Oil. Good for them. More of this sort of thing.

    "Protest is when I say this does not please me. Resistance is when I ensure what does not please me occurs no more." Ulrike Meinhof
    Do you support all protesto-vandalism, or only for causes you agree with?
    Why the fuck would I support it for causes I disagree with?
    I find your position baffling. The means of change are more important in the long run than the change itself.
    Why is it baffling? Strategies are, mostly, morally neutral; the cause is the thing that places the morality. Violence is typically considered "bad", but it's fine in self defence; so violence isn't actually the bad thing, but the cause is.

    Protesting is a strategy. I like it when causes that are good use it, and dislike it when causes that are bad use it. I would still protect the right to protesting, as long as counter protest and self defence in the face of violence at protests is allowed (see Honor Oak this weekend).
This discussion has been closed.