2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
Well it is not helped by the BMA and other militant unions seeking high pay awards
Aside from the broader economic debate over links between public sector pay and inflation, does *seeking* high pay awards contribute to higher inflation? Surely it's *getting* high pay awards?
The problem is the refusal to discuss sensible awards
And that cuts both ways.
The last decade and a bit have shown that public sector workers can put up quite a lot of real terms pay cuts. (In reality, the pay stopped being viable for recruitment and retention a while back, but enough existing staff were willing to endure.)
Last year's awards, especially on conjunction with the inflation surge, crossed the line from tolerably poor to taking the Mickey. Hence all the strikes. And the usual dynamic here is that the employer has to overcompensate to shut everyone up again. The dark rumours that the government is trying to find a way of avoiding the pay review recommendations isn't helping.
Incidentally, what happens next with the nurses? They can't strike, but a decent number of extra "no" votes would have allowed the ballot to pass. Is there a cooling off period before they can be asked again?
I think I've worked out why a certain type of person was so offended by the lab-leak hypothesis. It's because they viewed it as a "simplistic" explanation, and they dislike what they view as simplistic explanations for anything, even if it's most likely to be true.
I may be misremembering - I probably am, as I never really paid it much attention - but weren't many of the early adopters of the lab theory anti-vaxxers on the far right? If so, my guess is that it was the messenger that was the problem.
I think you're right; I think there was also an element of "lab leak = blaming the Chinese = racist".
That sort of thing makes people twitchy about appearing to endorse them, and thus the comments about "We're not supporting a conspiracy theory, are we?" and hesitation.
Albeit they DID end up considering it in depth, anyway.
2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
I posted yesterday that there is no alternative to the policies of Sunak and Hunt and this is hard, very hard
The last property crisis lasted from 1991 to 2001 and there is every reason to believe this could be similar
I would gently remind folks that the 1976 labour government's financial crisis needed the intervention of the IMF with big cuts in public spending, let's hope we are not on the same course today
BoE is supposed to handle inflation and they have failed utterly.
2% target?
WTF.
Liz Truss was right in the first place that the monetary policy framework needs to be looked at again. Depoliticised CPI targetting was a superficially attractive policy but has been one of the root causes of two major crises in a row.
I'm not sure politicised inflation targeting would have led to the brakes being applied sooner and harder (as it is now clear they should have been).
If Bailey at the BoE felt the pressure to understeer on inflation due to the relatively short term economic threat of COVID, I find the idea that PM Johnson or Chancellor Sunak would have held their nerve more firmly rather fanciful.
Anyone who thinks that handing interest rate setting back to politicians is a good idea really has a very short memory.
2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
Well it is not helped by the BMA and other militant unions seeking high pay awards
Aside from the broader economic debate over links between public sector pay and inflation, does *seeking* high pay awards contribute to higher inflation? Surely it's *getting* high pay awards?
The problem is the refusal to discuss sensible awards
I agree that's a problem in terms of functioning of public services - and actually I am more willing to attribute a fair amount of blame on that to trades unions and professional bodies (although not, by any means, all the blame).
But your original claim was that *seeking* (as opposed to getting) high pay awards was inflationary, and that seems a flawed argument in that someone can seek what they want, but it doesn't involve cranking up the cash printing presses unless they get it.
"the absence of evidence for a lab leak, and in the presence of evidence for the market as the source" is mere fantasy. To believe it you have to believe that circumstantial evidence is conclusive in favour of the market and inadmissible in favour of the lab, and to ignore the huge debate about whether the furin cleavage site is likely to have arisen in nature.
The evidence for the market is not circumstantial. The early cases were clustered around the market. Environmental analyses found the virus in the market. That there were two initial strains of SARS-COV-2 is consistent with a reservoir of infected animals in the market.
It is, if course, entirely possible for the wet market to be both the focal point, and it to have been a lab leak.
That., of course, it almost certainly what happened. Leaked in the lab - the CDC more likely than the WIV - simply because of proximity - 300 metres away. Infected but pre-symptomatic lab worker went from the CDC to the market to buy a chicken. Bingo. Superspreader event, clustered around the market
It's not obvious to me.
Wild -> lab -> market is plausible and you assert that the wild -> lab bit was happening (and I have no reason to disbelieve this) but the lab -> market bit still requires some lapses that are fairly rare and the timing has to be just right (they do happen, it is certainly possible)
Wild -> market is also plausible and while you assert that wild -> animal in market is unlikely (and again I have no reason to disbelieve) there's also potential for a chain of transmission through animals (or containers, surfaces, air) to market or even indeed a person infected elsewhere (not from lab, closer to large populations of bats) taking it to the market.
I don't see a strong reason to favour one of those over the other, on the available evidence.
If the outbreak had happened in any other city in China, then a purely zoonotic origin would be the most likely scenario. That it happened in the same city where bat diseases were being actively studied skews the probabilities the other way around.
Most large Chinese cities have labs studying coronaviruses. If you're worried about zoonotic infections in China, you're looking at bat diseases. So, if the outbreak had happened in any other city in China, there's a high chance there would have been a similar lab.
This doesn't seem to be true. The number of BSL-4 labs in China is very small.
And a lab leak can come from a BSL-3 lab. After all, WCDC is not BSL-4 lab, and that's the one Leon is most animated about. If it was artificially manipulated, then the odds change. If it was a natural sample leaked (which is where the focus now lies), then it's any BSL-3 lab or higher.
(Edited - BSL-3)
The CDC was, I believe, operating at BSL 2
That's why Jeremy Farrar's first reaction, on hearing about Covid, was that the lab work in China was "like the Wild West". He also believed it probably came from the lab
Yet weirdly enough about six minutes after writing that email he signed a letter to the Lancet calling "lab leak" a baseless conspiracy theory
Funny, huh
Proof that some of this terrifying bat research was done at BSL2 level (I reckon this is the Wuhan CDC they are talking about)
"In EHA-led work conducted in Wuhan, scientists infected humanized mice with engineered novel bat coronaviruses in a BSL-3 facility, according to grant documents EHA submitted to the NIH. Some collection and engineering of bat coronaviruses were done in a BSL-2, with less stringent protocols and containment, according to multiple sources including a paper in the Journal of Virology ."
"the absence of evidence for a lab leak, and in the presence of evidence for the market as the source" is mere fantasy. To believe it you have to believe that circumstantial evidence is conclusive in favour of the market and inadmissible in favour of the lab, and to ignore the huge debate about whether the furin cleavage site is likely to have arisen in nature.
The evidence for the market is not circumstantial. The early cases were clustered around the market. Environmental analyses found the virus in the market. That there were two initial strains of SARS-COV-2 is consistent with a reservoir of infected animals in the market.
It is, if course, entirely possible for the wet market to be both the focal point, and it to have been a lab leak.
That., of course, it almost certainly what happened. Leaked in the lab - the CDC more likely than the WIV - simply because of proximity - 300 metres away. Infected but pre-symptomatic lab worker went from the CDC to the market to buy a chicken. Bingo. Superspreader event, clustered around the market
It's not obvious to me.
Wild -> lab -> market is plausible and you assert that the wild -> lab bit was happening (and I have no reason to disbelieve this) but the lab -> market bit still requires some lapses that are fairly rare and the timing has to be just right (they do happen, it is certainly possible)
Wild -> market is also plausible and while you assert that wild -> animal in market is unlikely (and again I have no reason to disbelieve) there's also potential for a chain of transmission through animals (or containers, surfaces, air) to market or even indeed a person infected elsewhere (not from lab, closer to large populations of bats) taking it to the market.
I don't see a strong reason to favour one of those over the other, on the available evidence.
If the outbreak had happened in any other city in China, then a purely zoonotic origin would be the most likely scenario. That it happened in the same city where bat diseases were being actively studied skews the probabilities the other way around.
Most large Chinese cities have labs studying coronaviruses. If you're worried about zoonotic infections in China, you're looking at bat diseases. So, if the outbreak had happened in any other city in China, there's a high chance there would have been a similar lab.
This doesn't seem to be true. The number of BSL-4 labs in China is very small.
And a lab leak can come from a BSL-3 lab. After all, WCDC is not BSL-4 lab, and that's the one Leon is most animated about. If it was artificially manipulated, then the odds change. If it was a natural sample leaked (which is where the focus now lies), then it's any BSL-3 lab or higher.
(Edited - BSL-3)
The CDC was, I believe, operating at BSL 2
That's why Jeremy Farrar's first reaction, on hearing about Covid, was that the lab work in China was "like the Wild West". He also believed it probably came from the lab
Yet weirdly enough about six minutes after writing that email he signed a letter to the Lancet calling "lab leak" a baseless conspiracy theory
Funny, huh
Proof that some of this terrifying bat research was done at BSL2 level (I reckon this is the Wuhan CDC they are talking about)
"In EHA-led work conducted in Wuhan, scientists infected humanized mice with engineered novel bat coronaviruses in a BSL-3 facility, according to grant documents EHA submitted to the NIH. Some collection and engineering of bat coronaviruses were done in a BSL-2, with less stringent protocols and containment, according to multiple sources including a paper in the Journal of Virology ."
Curious that Leon, so assiduous in finding out any controversy amongst those looking into things, missed this.
I don't think it is disputed that dodgy research was, scarily, done at lower level biosecurity labs in Wuhan
Here you go. How about The Times? Good enough?
"The unredacted tranche [of emails], released under freedom of information rules, shows that the [western] scientists were especially shocked by learning the details of one of the experiments being carried out in Wuhan. This involved passing a virus between mice that had been genetically modified to express the receptor proteins used by coronavirus to infect cells.
Francis Collins, then the head of the US National Institutes of Health, which helped fund some of the research in Wuhan, said on February 4, “Surely that wouldn’t be done in a BSL-2 lab?”. BSL-2 refers to only a medium level of biosecurity. “Wild West,” Farrar replied."
"The email discussions took place among an elite group of scientists rounded up by Fauci and Farrar after the media began to probe research into bat coronaviruses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where scientists were engaged in ‘gain of function’ experiments that can boost infectivity. Such work was banned for three years in the US amid fears it might spark a pandemic.
Although the Wuhan laboratory was the first in China with maximum-level biosafety clearance, the group of experts confirmed that researchers there carried out risky experiments under ‘BSL-2’ conditions with much lower level safety protocols.
Their work included transferring viruses in mice engineered to contain the human version of a receptor protein on cell surfaces used by some coronaviruses to infect our bodies."
2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
I posted yesterday that there is no alternative to the policies of Sunak and Hunt and this is hard, very hard
The last property crisis lasted from 1991 to 2001 and there is every reason to believe this could be similar
I would gently remind folks that the 1976 labour government's financial crisis needed the intervention of the IMF with big cuts in public spending, let's hope we are not on the same course today
BoE is supposed to handle inflation and they have failed utterly.
2% target?
WTF.
Liz Truss was right in the first place that the monetary policy framework needs to be looked at again. Depoliticised CPI targetting was a superficially attractive policy but has been one of the root causes of two major crises in a row.
I'm not sure politicised inflation targeting would have led to the brakes being applied sooner and harder (as it is now clear they should have been).
If Bailey at the BoE felt the pressure to understeer on inflation due to the relatively short term economic threat of COVID, I find the idea that PM Johnson or Chancellor Sunak would have held their nerve more firmly rather fanciful.
Keeping the Chancellor politically accountable for monetary policy would have made it harder to escape responsibility for the asset bubbles we've seen. Instead they were treated as a phenomenon like the weather that was beyond the reach of politics.
They may still have got it wrong, but at least the system wouldn't have been based on a fiction.
I think I've worked out why a certain type of person was so offended by the lab-leak hypothesis. It's because they viewed it as a "simplistic" explanation, and they dislike what they view as simplistic explanations for anything, even if it's most likely to be true.
I may be misremembering - I probably am, as I never really paid it much attention - but weren't many of the early adopters of the lab theory anti-vaxxers on the far right? If so, my guess is that it was the messenger that was the problem.
Well notably Trump (who I assume hadn't a clue, but was jumping on the alt-right band wagon). That of course does the Lab theory no favours when the liar in chief pronounces. Even if by random chance he ends up gets something right it will invariably cause problems.
I saw this rather interesting map on twitter earlier of the ethnolinguistic composition of Eurasia and North Africa in 1929
Link to full detail map is in this picture of it
There are several German (Tedeschi) enclaves; one across the Poland Ukraine border, one in north east Romania (Moldova, and Transnistria, now?), one north east of Crimea, and quite a large one north east of Stalingrad
That final one, deep into Russia, was of most interest to me. I'd never heard of the Volga Germans
They'd originally been invited by fellow German, Catherine the Great, to come and settle in Russia. They'd been given rights to a certain amount of autonomy for over 150 years, until the communists came in
Then their autonomy started to be eroded and many emigrated, mostly to the Americas and Kyrgyzstan. Those that remained, about one and a half million, were deported to Siberian camps from '39 to '41
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 2h 16 years ago today, the skies darkened, never to brighten again
===
See if you can guess what happened that day.
No cheating on twitter or google.
Blair leaving office?
Well done.
My other guess was the FIA hearing about Ferrarigate. But I don't think Rentoul's an F1 fan...
The period was memorable for me as I changed jobs about then and moved down to Soton.
Spygate feels like yesterday. I was having a drink with a friend (whose dad worked at McLaren) in Guildford one night not long after it and Coughlan's son was chatting up some girls at the table next to us. He was gloating about who is dad was and it took a lot of restraint not to start a fight!
Re; a post below, part of the problem is that there isn't really enough mainstream coverage of the documented harms caused by pesticides, processed foods, and all sorts of other daily items.
This then means that these kind of concerns are disproportionately covered at the margins, which will also then include a disproportionate number of the more extreme kind of conspiracy theorists. This, in turn, makes it easier for any large pharmaceutical, chemical and food processing interests to claim that any criticisms are conspiracy theories. A similar dynamic, emphasised this time by governmental authorities, but also invoking more generalised cultural prejudice in populations, also seems to have helped hold up UFO investigations, although that seems to be changing most recently.
"the absence of evidence for a lab leak, and in the presence of evidence for the market as the source" is mere fantasy. To believe it you have to believe that circumstantial evidence is conclusive in favour of the market and inadmissible in favour of the lab, and to ignore the huge debate about whether the furin cleavage site is likely to have arisen in nature.
The evidence for the market is not circumstantial. The early cases were clustered around the market. Environmental analyses found the virus in the market. That there were two initial strains of SARS-COV-2 is consistent with a reservoir of infected animals in the market.
It is, if course, entirely possible for the wet market to be both the focal point, and it to have been a lab leak.
That., of course, it almost certainly what happened. Leaked in the lab - the CDC more likely than the WIV - simply because of proximity - 300 metres away. Infected but pre-symptomatic lab worker went from the CDC to the market to buy a chicken. Bingo. Superspreader event, clustered around the market
It's not obvious to me.
Wild -> lab -> market is plausible and you assert that the wild -> lab bit was happening (and I have no reason to disbelieve this) but the lab -> market bit still requires some lapses that are fairly rare and the timing has to be just right (they do happen, it is certainly possible)
Wild -> market is also plausible and while you assert that wild -> animal in market is unlikely (and again I have no reason to disbelieve) there's also potential for a chain of transmission through animals (or containers, surfaces, air) to market or even indeed a person infected elsewhere (not from lab, closer to large populations of bats) taking it to the market.
I don't see a strong reason to favour one of those over the other, on the available evidence.
If the outbreak had happened in any other city in China, then a purely zoonotic origin would be the most likely scenario. That it happened in the same city where bat diseases were being actively studied skews the probabilities the other way around.
Most large Chinese cities have labs studying coronaviruses. If you're worried about zoonotic infections in China, you're looking at bat diseases. So, if the outbreak had happened in any other city in China, there's a high chance there would have been a similar lab.
This doesn't seem to be true. The number of BSL-4 labs in China is very small.
And a lab leak can come from a BSL-3 lab. After all, WCDC is not BSL-4 lab, and that's the one Leon is most animated about. If it was artificially manipulated, then the odds change. If it was a natural sample leaked (which is where the focus now lies), then it's any BSL-3 lab or higher.
(Edited - BSL-3)
The CDC was, I believe, operating at BSL 2
That's why Jeremy Farrar's first reaction, on hearing about Covid, was that the lab work in China was "like the Wild West". He also believed it probably came from the lab
Yet weirdly enough about six minutes after writing that email he signed a letter to the Lancet calling "lab leak" a baseless conspiracy theory
Funny, huh
Proof that some of this terrifying bat research was done at BSL2 level (I reckon this is the Wuhan CDC they are talking about)
"In EHA-led work conducted in Wuhan, scientists infected humanized mice with engineered novel bat coronaviruses in a BSL-3 facility, according to grant documents EHA submitted to the NIH. Some collection and engineering of bat coronaviruses were done in a BSL-2, with less stringent protocols and containment, according to multiple sources including a paper in the Journal of Virology ."
I always find it's good to look at the home page of any linked website I'm not familiar with. This one looks... interesting.
It has header sections including "Bill Gates", "Pesticides" and "ultra-processed foods"
Which *really* set my spider-senses tingling.
Fuck, yeah, why are they worried abour "Pesticides" and "Ultra-processed foods"???
What a bunch of cranks
You are a dangerous fool. Your sort of sh*t is exactly how people get dragged into cults and misinformation black holes.
And how does "Bill Gates" fit into your thinking?
No idea. Anyway I've just given you THE TIMES and Jeremy Farrar as an alternative source for the exact same information. So you can put away your angry little pecker of outrage
2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
I posted yesterday that there is no alternative to the policies of Sunak and Hunt and this is hard, very hard
The last property crisis lasted from 1991 to 2001 and there is every reason to believe this could be similar
I would gently remind folks that the 1976 labour government's financial crisis needed the intervention of the IMF with big cuts in public spending, let's hope we are not on the same course today
BoE is supposed to handle inflation and they have failed utterly.
2% target?
WTF.
Liz Truss was right in the first place that the monetary policy framework needs to be looked at again. Depoliticised CPI targetting was a superficially attractive policy but has been one of the root causes of two major crises in a row.
It just means the BOE (and every other quango for that matter) takes their cue from whatever junket that they last attended rather than from the UK Government.
And BigG is completely wrong about there not being an alternative, the alternative is to drive down the cost of energy by increasing the supply of it. This is an energy cost-driven inflation. It has bugger all to do with a consumer-driven boom. It is completely bizarre that commentators are bemoaning how rich they think everyone is in the UK at the moment.
2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
I posted yesterday that there is no alternative to the policies of Sunak and Hunt and this is hard, very hard
The last property crisis lasted from 1991 to 2001 and there is every reason to believe this could be similar
I would gently remind folks that the 1976 labour government's financial crisis needed the intervention of the IMF with big cuts in public spending, let's hope we are not on the same course today
BoE is supposed to handle inflation and they have failed utterly.
2% target?
WTF.
Liz Truss was right in the first place that the monetary policy framework needs to be looked at again. Depoliticised CPI targetting was a superficially attractive policy but has been one of the root causes of two major crises in a row.
I'm not sure politicised inflation targeting would have led to the brakes being applied sooner and harder (as it is now clear they should have been).
If Bailey at the BoE felt the pressure to understeer on inflation due to the relatively short term economic threat of COVID, I find the idea that PM Johnson or Chancellor Sunak would have held their nerve more firmly rather fanciful.
Keeping the Chancellor politically accountable for monetary policy would have made it harder to escape responsibility for the asset bubbles we've seen. Instead they were treated as a phenomenon like the weather that was beyond the reach of politics.
They may still have got it wrong, but at least the system wouldn't have been based on a fiction.
By saying "they may still have got it wrong" you're ducking the central question, which is are politicians more or less likely than the BoE to get it wrong, given the incentives applying to politicians and to central bankers? I think history is pretty clear on that, in fact.
My argument doesn't rely on central bankers being infallible... they demonstrably aren't. It relies on politicians being more fallible because of the strong incentive they have not to cause short term pain for a benefit that may well not be felt until your successor comes into office (at which point you'll not get credit).
"the absence of evidence for a lab leak, and in the presence of evidence for the market as the source" is mere fantasy. To believe it you have to believe that circumstantial evidence is conclusive in favour of the market and inadmissible in favour of the lab, and to ignore the huge debate about whether the furin cleavage site is likely to have arisen in nature.
The evidence for the market is not circumstantial. The early cases were clustered around the market. Environmental analyses found the virus in the market. That there were two initial strains of SARS-COV-2 is consistent with a reservoir of infected animals in the market.
It is, if course, entirely possible for the wet market to be both the focal point, and it to have been a lab leak.
That., of course, it almost certainly what happened. Leaked in the lab - the CDC more likely than the WIV - simply because of proximity - 300 metres away. Infected but pre-symptomatic lab worker went from the CDC to the market to buy a chicken. Bingo. Superspreader event, clustered around the market
It's not obvious to me.
Wild -> lab -> market is plausible and you assert that the wild -> lab bit was happening (and I have no reason to disbelieve this) but the lab -> market bit still requires some lapses that are fairly rare and the timing has to be just right (they do happen, it is certainly possible)
Wild -> market is also plausible and while you assert that wild -> animal in market is unlikely (and again I have no reason to disbelieve) there's also potential for a chain of transmission through animals (or containers, surfaces, air) to market or even indeed a person infected elsewhere (not from lab, closer to large populations of bats) taking it to the market.
I don't see a strong reason to favour one of those over the other, on the available evidence.
If the outbreak had happened in any other city in China, then a purely zoonotic origin would be the most likely scenario. That it happened in the same city where bat diseases were being actively studied skews the probabilities the other way around.
Most large Chinese cities have labs studying coronaviruses. If you're worried about zoonotic infections in China, you're looking at bat diseases. So, if the outbreak had happened in any other city in China, there's a high chance there would have been a similar lab.
This doesn't seem to be true. The number of BSL-4 labs in China is very small.
And a lab leak can come from a BSL-3 lab. After all, WCDC is not BSL-4 lab, and that's the one Leon is most animated about. If it was artificially manipulated, then the odds change. If it was a natural sample leaked (which is where the focus now lies), then it's any BSL-3 lab or higher.
(Edited - BSL-3)
The CDC was, I believe, operating at BSL 2
That's why Jeremy Farrar's first reaction, on hearing about Covid, was that the lab work in China was "like the Wild West". He also believed it probably came from the lab
Yet weirdly enough about six minutes after writing that email he signed a letter to the Lancet calling "lab leak" a baseless conspiracy theory
Funny, huh
Proof that some of this terrifying bat research was done at BSL2 level (I reckon this is the Wuhan CDC they are talking about)
"In EHA-led work conducted in Wuhan, scientists infected humanized mice with engineered novel bat coronaviruses in a BSL-3 facility, according to grant documents EHA submitted to the NIH. Some collection and engineering of bat coronaviruses were done in a BSL-2, with less stringent protocols and containment, according to multiple sources including a paper in the Journal of Virology ."
Curious that Leon, so assiduous in finding out any controversy amongst those looking into things, missed this.
I don't think it is disputed that dodgy research was, scarily, done at lower level biosecurity labs in Wuhan
Here you go. How about The Times? Good enough?
"The unredacted tranche [of emails], released under freedom of information rules, shows that the [western] scientists were especially shocked by learning the details of one of the experiments being carried out in Wuhan. This involved passing a virus between mice that had been genetically modified to express the receptor proteins used by coronavirus to infect cells.
Francis Collins, then the head of the US National Institutes of Health, which helped fund some of the research in Wuhan, said on February 4, “Surely that wouldn’t be done in a BSL-2 lab?”. BSL-2 refers to only a medium level of biosecurity. “Wild West,” Farrar replied."
"The email discussions took place among an elite group of scientists rounded up by Fauci and Farrar after the media began to probe research into bat coronaviruses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where scientists were engaged in ‘gain of function’ experiments that can boost infectivity. Such work was banned for three years in the US amid fears it might spark a pandemic.
Although the Wuhan laboratory was the first in China with maximum-level biosafety clearance, the group of experts confirmed that researchers there carried out risky experiments under ‘BSL-2’ conditions with much lower level safety protocols.
Their work included transferring viruses in mice engineered to contain the human version of a receptor protein on cell surfaces used by some coronaviruses to infect our bodies."
The Times were also the ones who recently published the bollocks on "the three researchers" and the rest of it that was flattened by the recent intelligence report release which not only didn't say what was claimed, but contradicted it completely.
No-one has presented a coherent lab leak theory that hasn't been contradicted by the available evidence or require multiple leaps of faith. I haven't seen a decent peer-reviewed paper on the theory at all, but have seen many on the zoonosis option.
Just handwaving, switching between different options, ignoring when something's been disproven to leap onto another line, and then occasional abuse. No illumination.
Re; a post below, prt of the problem is that there isn't really enough mainstream coverage of the documented harms caused by pesticides, processed foods, and all sorts of other daily items.
This then means that these kind of concerns are disproportionately covered at the margins, which will also then include a disproportionate number of the more extreme kind of conspiracy theorists. This then, in turn, makes it easier for any large pharmaceutical, chemical and food processing interests to claim that any criticisms are conspiracy theories. A similar dynamic seems to have helped hold up UFO investigsation, althu]ough that seems to be changing most recently.
Yes, very true
It is the exact same psychological process you see with immigration/race as a subject of debate
Take Asian Grooming. No one was willing to discuss it, everyone was hushing iu up, the only person willing to talk about it was the odious thug Nick Griffin, and he even got arrested for it. So instead of throwing light on a difficult topic it became even more marginalised and cranky: "that's the kind of thing the BNP say", "You sound like Nick Griffin"
And thus a huge, real-life scandal lay buried for another decade
This happens all across the internet, it ain't just "rightwing" issues that get censored and silenced. A sad evolution
"the absence of evidence for a lab leak, and in the presence of evidence for the market as the source" is mere fantasy. To believe it you have to believe that circumstantial evidence is conclusive in favour of the market and inadmissible in favour of the lab, and to ignore the huge debate about whether the furin cleavage site is likely to have arisen in nature.
The evidence for the market is not circumstantial. The early cases were clustered around the market. Environmental analyses found the virus in the market. That there were two initial strains of SARS-COV-2 is consistent with a reservoir of infected animals in the market.
It is, if course, entirely possible for the wet market to be both the focal point, and it to have been a lab leak.
That., of course, it almost certainly what happened. Leaked in the lab - the CDC more likely than the WIV - simply because of proximity - 300 metres away. Infected but pre-symptomatic lab worker went from the CDC to the market to buy a chicken. Bingo. Superspreader event, clustered around the market
It's not obvious to me.
Wild -> lab -> market is plausible and you assert that the wild -> lab bit was happening (and I have no reason to disbelieve this) but the lab -> market bit still requires some lapses that are fairly rare and the timing has to be just right (they do happen, it is certainly possible)
Wild -> market is also plausible and while you assert that wild -> animal in market is unlikely (and again I have no reason to disbelieve) there's also potential for a chain of transmission through animals (or containers, surfaces, air) to market or even indeed a person infected elsewhere (not from lab, closer to large populations of bats) taking it to the market.
I don't see a strong reason to favour one of those over the other, on the available evidence.
If the outbreak had happened in any other city in China, then a purely zoonotic origin would be the most likely scenario. That it happened in the same city where bat diseases were being actively studied skews the probabilities the other way around.
Most large Chinese cities have labs studying coronaviruses. If you're worried about zoonotic infections in China, you're looking at bat diseases. So, if the outbreak had happened in any other city in China, there's a high chance there would have been a similar lab.
This doesn't seem to be true. The number of BSL-4 labs in China is very small.
And a lab leak can come from a BSL-3 lab. After all, WCDC is not BSL-4 lab, and that's the one Leon is most animated about. If it was artificially manipulated, then the odds change. If it was a natural sample leaked (which is where the focus now lies), then it's any BSL-3 lab or higher.
(Edited - BSL-3)
The CDC was, I believe, operating at BSL 2
That's why Jeremy Farrar's first reaction, on hearing about Covid, was that the lab work in China was "like the Wild West". He also believed it probably came from the lab
Yet weirdly enough about six minutes after writing that email he signed a letter to the Lancet calling "lab leak" a baseless conspiracy theory
Funny, huh
Proof that some of this terrifying bat research was done at BSL2 level (I reckon this is the Wuhan CDC they are talking about)
"In EHA-led work conducted in Wuhan, scientists infected humanized mice with engineered novel bat coronaviruses in a BSL-3 facility, according to grant documents EHA submitted to the NIH. Some collection and engineering of bat coronaviruses were done in a BSL-2, with less stringent protocols and containment, according to multiple sources including a paper in the Journal of Virology ."
Curious that Leon, so assiduous in finding out any controversy amongst those looking into things, missed this.
I don't think it is disputed that dodgy research was, scarily, done at lower level biosecurity labs in Wuhan
Here you go. How about The Times? Good enough?
"The unredacted tranche [of emails], released under freedom of information rules, shows that the [western] scientists were especially shocked by learning the details of one of the experiments being carried out in Wuhan. This involved passing a virus between mice that had been genetically modified to express the receptor proteins used by coronavirus to infect cells.
Francis Collins, then the head of the US National Institutes of Health, which helped fund some of the research in Wuhan, said on February 4, “Surely that wouldn’t be done in a BSL-2 lab?”. BSL-2 refers to only a medium level of biosecurity. “Wild West,” Farrar replied."
"The email discussions took place among an elite group of scientists rounded up by Fauci and Farrar after the media began to probe research into bat coronaviruses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where scientists were engaged in ‘gain of function’ experiments that can boost infectivity. Such work was banned for three years in the US amid fears it might spark a pandemic.
Although the Wuhan laboratory was the first in China with maximum-level biosafety clearance, the group of experts confirmed that researchers there carried out risky experiments under ‘BSL-2’ conditions with much lower level safety protocols.
Their work included transferring viruses in mice engineered to contain the human version of a receptor protein on cell surfaces used by some coronaviruses to infect our bodies."
The Times were also the ones who recently published the bollocks on "the three researchers" and the rest of it that was flattened by the recent intelligence report release which not only didn't say what was claimed, but contradicted it completely.
No-one has presented a coherent lab leak theory that hasn't been contradicted by the available evidence or require multiple leaps of faith. I haven't seen a decent peer-reviewed paper on the theory at all, but have seen many on the zoonosis option.
Just handwaving, switching between different options, ignoring when something's been disproven to leap onto another line, and then occasional abuse. No illumination.
Ah, so now The Times is a cranky journal full of lab leak loons? Got it. And when Jeremy Farrar, then head of Wellcome, described the Wuhan labs as "Wild West" in terms of biosecurity, he was in fact referring to their stringently brilliant safety record?
Jesus effing Christ. Look at yourself. I'm done with debating the zoonazis for the day
Off to the gym. Enjoy your happy happy fuckwit-world
I think I've worked out why a certain type of person was so offended by the lab-leak hypothesis. It's because they viewed it as a "simplistic" explanation, and they dislike what they view as simplistic explanations for anything, even if it's most likely to be true.
I may be misremembering - I probably am, as I never really paid it much attention - but weren't many of the early adopters of the lab theory anti-vaxxers on the far right? If so, my guess is that it was the messenger that was the problem.
Well notably Trump (who I assume hadn't a clue, but was jumping on the alt-right band wagon). That of course does the Lab theory no favours when the liar in chief pronounces. Even if by random chance he ends up gets something right it will invariably cause problems.
Trump has been anti-China for decades, long before he entered politics.
2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
I posted yesterday that there is no alternative to the policies of Sunak and Hunt and this is hard, very hard
The last property crisis lasted from 1991 to 2001 and there is every reason to believe this could be similar
I would gently remind folks that the 1976 labour government's financial crisis needed the intervention of the IMF with big cuts in public spending, let's hope we are not on the same course today
BoE is supposed to handle inflation and they have failed utterly.
2% target?
WTF.
Liz Truss was right in the first place that the monetary policy framework needs to be looked at again. Depoliticised CPI targetting was a superficially attractive policy but has been one of the root causes of two major crises in a row.
I'm not sure politicised inflation targeting would have led to the brakes being applied sooner and harder (as it is now clear they should have been).
If Bailey at the BoE felt the pressure to understeer on inflation due to the relatively short term economic threat of COVID, I find the idea that PM Johnson or Chancellor Sunak would have held their nerve more firmly rather fanciful.
Keeping the Chancellor politically accountable for monetary policy would have made it harder to escape responsibility for the asset bubbles we've seen. Instead they were treated as a phenomenon like the weather that was beyond the reach of politics.
They may still have got it wrong, but at least the system wouldn't have been based on a fiction.
By saying "they may still have got it wrong" you're ducking the central question, which is are politicians more or less likely than the BoE to get it wrong, given the incentives applying to politicians and to central bankers? I think history is pretty clear on that, in fact.
My argument doesn't rely on central bankers being infallible... they demonstrably aren't. It relies on politicians being more fallible because of the strong incentive they have not to cause short term pain for a benefit that may well not be felt until your successor comes into office (at which point you'll not get credit).
A functioning political system requires a dynamic interplay of different actors. My argument doesn't rely on politicians being less fallible, just on being more afraid of the electoral consequences of getting it wrong. Having a system which allows everyone to say "Not me guv" guarantees dysfunction.
2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
I think I've worked out why a certain type of person was so offended by the lab-leak hypothesis. It's because they viewed it as a "simplistic" explanation, and they dislike what they view as simplistic explanations for anything, even if it's most likely to be true.
I may be misremembering - I probably am, as I never really paid it much attention - but weren't many of the early adopters of the lab theory anti-vaxxers on the far right? If so, my guess is that it was the messenger that was the problem.
One of them was Trump, as Leon notes, and I think that is in part definitely the case.
Of course, even conpiracist anti-vaxxers will occasionally have a point.
Though even just in general some non-loonies raised the possibility too, but it seemed to be shot down with remarkable alacrity.
2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
I posted yesterday that there is no alternative to the policies of Sunak and Hunt and this is hard, very hard
The last property crisis lasted from 1991 to 2001 and there is every reason to believe this could be similar
I would gently remind folks that the 1976 labour government's financial crisis needed the intervention of the IMF with big cuts in public spending, let's hope we are not on the same course today
BoE is supposed to handle inflation and they have failed utterly.
2% target?
WTF.
Liz Truss was right in the first place that the monetary policy framework needs to be looked at again. Depoliticised CPI targetting was a superficially attractive policy but has been one of the root causes of two major crises in a row.
I'm not sure politicised inflation targeting would have led to the brakes being applied sooner and harder (as it is now clear they should have been).
If Bailey at the BoE felt the pressure to understeer on inflation due to the relatively short term economic threat of COVID, I find the idea that PM Johnson or Chancellor Sunak would have held their nerve more firmly rather fanciful.
Keeping the Chancellor politically accountable for monetary policy would have made it harder to escape responsibility for the asset bubbles we've seen. Instead they were treated as a phenomenon like the weather that was beyond the reach of politics.
They may still have got it wrong, but at least the system wouldn't have been based on a fiction.
I think this is quite a strong argument.
I’m not convinced restoring direct political/democratic control/accountability is a particularly good solution, though.
All the old problems come back.
I wonder how Major and Brown see the problem/solution, now…
2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
I posted yesterday that there is no alternative to the policies of Sunak and Hunt and this is hard, very hard
The last property crisis lasted from 1991 to 2001 and there is every reason to believe this could be similar
I would gently remind folks that the 1976 labour government's financial crisis needed the intervention of the IMF with big cuts in public spending, let's hope we are not on the same course today
BoE is supposed to handle inflation and they have failed utterly.
2% target?
WTF.
Liz Truss was right in the first place that the monetary policy framework needs to be looked at again. Depoliticised CPI targetting was a superficially attractive policy but has been one of the root causes of two major crises in a row.
I'm not sure politicised inflation targeting would have led to the brakes being applied sooner and harder (as it is now clear they should have been).
If Bailey at the BoE felt the pressure to understeer on inflation due to the relatively short term economic threat of COVID, I find the idea that PM Johnson or Chancellor Sunak would have held their nerve more firmly rather fanciful.
Keeping the Chancellor politically accountable for monetary policy would have made it harder to escape responsibility for the asset bubbles we've seen. Instead they were treated as a phenomenon like the weather that was beyond the reach of politics.
They may still have got it wrong, but at least the system wouldn't have been based on a fiction.
By saying "they may still have got it wrong" you're ducking the central question, which is are politicians more or less likely than the BoE to get it wrong, given the incentives applying to politicians and to central bankers? I think history is pretty clear on that, in fact.
My argument doesn't rely on central bankers being infallible... they demonstrably aren't. It relies on politicians being more fallible because of the strong incentive they have not to cause short term pain for a benefit that may well not be felt until your successor comes into office (at which point you'll not get credit).
A functioning political system requires a dynamic interplay of different actors. My argument doesn't rely on politicians being less fallible, just on being more afraid of the electoral consequences of getting it wrong. Having a system which allows everyone to say "Not me guv" guarantees dysfunction.
It doesn't allow everyone to say "not me, guv". The BoE has quite clearly badly missed its inflation target, and the Government has been too willing to accept the explanations it is required to provide for missing it, whilst also implementing policies that make it harder to control inflation.
The fact that there has been a bad result does not in any way mean going back to a system that frequently led to terrible results historically is wise.
Somerton and Frome will be a LD gain I think. Uxbridge I think could be a Tory hold due to a more local Tory candidate who is a Hillingdon councillor than the Camden councillor Labour candidate and the high Hindu vote.
Selby could go either way, narrow Tory hold or narrow Labour gain
Really – the Tories are available at 10/1 to hold the seat, also presume you'll be stacking your wads on that?
FWIW I'm told that there are literally hundreds of Labour helpers on the ground in Uxbridge. Not hearing that about Somerton and Frome, and suspect that the unofficial, unspoken different focus of L and LD is happening again.
Call it 30 to be on the safe side, another 5-10 in London, 30 across the South as a low estimate, 15 from the East, 10-20 from the SNP if things pan out well, call it another 5 in Wales, and, say, 25 in the Midlands and 15 from Yorkshire et al? Just about creeps a majority.
(Actually I reckon it'll be pretty comfortable majority if they get 30-40 back)
2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
I posted yesterday that there is no alternative to the policies of Sunak and Hunt and this is hard, very hard
The last property crisis lasted from 1991 to 2001 and there is every reason to believe this could be similar
I would gently remind folks that the 1976 labour government's financial crisis needed the intervention of the IMF with big cuts in public spending, let's hope we are not on the same course today
BoE is supposed to handle inflation and they have failed utterly.
2% target?
WTF.
Liz Truss was right in the first place that the monetary policy framework needs to be looked at again. Depoliticised CPI targetting was a superficially attractive policy but has been one of the root causes of two major crises in a row.
I'm not sure politicised inflation targeting would have led to the brakes being applied sooner and harder (as it is now clear they should have been).
If Bailey at the BoE felt the pressure to understeer on inflation due to the relatively short term economic threat of COVID, I find the idea that PM Johnson or Chancellor Sunak would have held their nerve more firmly rather fanciful.
Keeping the Chancellor politically accountable for monetary policy would have made it harder to escape responsibility for the asset bubbles we've seen. Instead they were treated as a phenomenon like the weather that was beyond the reach of politics.
They may still have got it wrong, but at least the system wouldn't have been based on a fiction.
I think this is quite a strong argument.
I’m not convinced restoring direct political/democratic control/accountability is a particularly good solution, though.
All the old problems come back.
I wonder how Major and Brown see the problem/solution, now…
You could perhaps have the best of both worlds by keeping an MPC but making it report to the Treasury and having it operate something like SAGE did during the pandemic in an advisory role.
I think I've worked out why a certain type of person was so offended by the lab-leak hypothesis. It's because they viewed it as a "simplistic" explanation, and they dislike what they view as simplistic explanations for anything, even if it's most likely to be true.
You may possibly, perhaps, maybe discounting yet another possible factor: weaponization of the lab-leak theory?
As cudgel for beating Chinese govt, Dr. Fauci, WHO, monkey-mongers, libtards, etc., etc., about the head & shoulders.
Some of which being justifiable IF actually true.
As is, for example (citing but one) condemnation of Putin's Russian mobocracy for poisoning emigre opponents on British soil. About 99.46% confirmed, or thereabouts?
Which ain't the case - at least not yet - for COVID lab-leak theories and allegations.
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
I posted yesterday that there is no alternative to the policies of Sunak and Hunt and this is hard, very hard
The last property crisis lasted from 1991 to 2001 and there is every reason to believe this could be similar
I would gently remind folks that the 1976 labour government's financial crisis needed the intervention of the IMF with big cuts in public spending, let's hope we are not on the same course today
BoE is supposed to handle inflation and they have failed utterly.
2% target?
WTF.
Liz Truss was right in the first place that the monetary policy framework needs to be looked at again. Depoliticised CPI targetting was a superficially attractive policy but has been one of the root causes of two major crises in a row.
It just means the BOE (and every other quango for that matter) takes their cue from whatever junket that they last attended rather than from the UK Government.
And BigG is completely wrong about there not being an alternative, the alternative is to drive down the cost of energy by increasing the supply of it. This is an energy cost-driven inflation. It has bugger all to do with a consumer-driven boom. It is completely bizarre that commentators are bemoaning how rich they think everyone is in the UK at the moment.
Serious question: how much actual effect on energy supply do you think the government could have if they chose?
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
I saw this rather interesting map on twitter earlier of the ethnolinguistic composition of Eurasia and North Africa in 1929
Link to full detail map is in this picture of it
There are several German (Tedeschi) enclaves; one across the Poland Ukraine border, one in north east Romania (Moldova, and Transnistria, now?), one north east of Crimea, and quite a large one north east of Stalingrad
That final one, deep into Russia, was of most interest to me. I'd never heard of the Volga Germans
They'd originally been invited by fellow German, Catherine the Great, to come and settle in Russia. They'd been given rights to a certain amount of autonomy for over 150 years, until the communists came in
Then their autonomy started to be eroded and many emigrated, mostly to the Americas and Kyrgyzstan. Those that remained, about one and a half million, were deported to Siberian camps from '39 to '41
Could even one of the contributors here who uses the concept "conspiracy theory" or "conspiracism" define it, please, in no more than two sentences. One assumes you can define it to exclude, for example, the view that the authorities in country A are as corrupt as the authorities in country B (no? what do you mean you can't? ), as well as the view that the kamikaze attacks on Manhattan's business district and the Pentagon in 2001 were masterminded by a small group of conspirators based in the Hindu Kush. Or does it still count as a conspiracy theory even when a government promulgates it? Or perhaps it counts as a conspiracy theory when a dirty rotten nasty backward government promulgates it, but not when a nice clean government does?
See how concepts work in the real world? :-)
PS No references to "science" please in any definition.
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
Could even one of the contributors here who uses the concept "conspiracy theory" or "conspiracism" define it, please, in no more than two sentences. One assumes you can define it to exclude, for example, the view that the authorities in country A are as corrupt as the authorities in country B (no? what do you mean you can't? ), as well as the view that the kamikaze attacks on Manhattan's business district and the Pentagon in 2001 were masterminded by a small group of conspirators based in the Hindu Kush. Or doesn't it count as a conspiracy theory when a government promulgates it?
Isn't it a conspiracy theory in itself to believe in the malicious promulgation of false conspiracy theories?
2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
I posted yesterday that there is no alternative to the policies of Sunak and Hunt and this is hard, very hard
The last property crisis lasted from 1991 to 2001 and there is every reason to believe this could be similar
I would gently remind folks that the 1976 labour government's financial crisis needed the intervention of the IMF with big cuts in public spending, let's hope we are not on the same course today
BoE is supposed to handle inflation and they have failed utterly.
2% target?
WTF.
Liz Truss was right in the first place that the monetary policy framework needs to be looked at again. Depoliticised CPI targetting was a superficially attractive policy but has been one of the root causes of two major crises in a row.
I'm not sure politicised inflation targeting would have led to the brakes being applied sooner and harder (as it is now clear they should have been).
If Bailey at the BoE felt the pressure to understeer on inflation due to the relatively short term economic threat of COVID, I find the idea that PM Johnson or Chancellor Sunak would have held their nerve more firmly rather fanciful.
Keeping the Chancellor politically accountable for monetary policy would have made it harder to escape responsibility for the asset bubbles we've seen. Instead they were treated as a phenomenon like the weather that was beyond the reach of politics.
They may still have got it wrong, but at least the system wouldn't have been based on a fiction.
By saying "they may still have got it wrong" you're ducking the central question, which is are politicians more or less likely than the BoE to get it wrong, given the incentives applying to politicians and to central bankers? I think history is pretty clear on that, in fact.
My argument doesn't rely on central bankers being infallible... they demonstrably aren't. It relies on politicians being more fallible because of the strong incentive they have not to cause short term pain for a benefit that may well not be felt until your successor comes into office (at which point you'll not get credit).
A functioning political system requires a dynamic interplay of different actors. My argument doesn't rely on politicians being less fallible, just on being more afraid of the electoral consequences of getting it wrong. Having a system which allows everyone to say "Not me guv" guarantees dysfunction.
It doesn't allow everyone to say "not me, guv". The BoE has quite clearly badly missed its inflation target, and the Government has been too willing to accept the explanations it is required to provide for missing it, whilst also implementing policies that make it harder to control inflation.
The fact that there has been a bad result does not in any way mean going back to a system that frequently led to terrible results historically is wise.
The inflation target is complete bullshit since there has been rampant inflation for decades, only not in the narrow range of goods and services the Bank looks at.
By pretending so called "asset" costs going up is not inflation the Bank has been able to pretend that inflation hasn't existed.
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
Oh I just noticed the Off Topic button has gone - excellent.
I don't think I have ever used the Flag button, but I am slightly suspicious that you want to get rid of it to delay any future ban. I suspect that might be a vain hope.
I have never knowingly used the Off Topic button and have no idea what the flag button is for.
I do like the like button though. Thank you Richard for restoring this cherished feature.
Could even one of the contributors here who uses the concept "conspiracy theory" or "conspiracism" define it, please, in no more than two sentences. One assumes you can define it to exclude, for example, the view that the authorities in country A are as corrupt as the authorities in country B (no? what do you mean you can't? ), as well as the view that the kamikaze attacks on Manhattan's business district and the Pentagon in 2001 were masterminded by a small group of conspirators based in the Hindu Kush. Or doesn't it count as a conspiracy theory when a government promulgates it?
I think this is a reasonably sound attempt as it concerns conspiracism (as opposed to conspiracy theories).
Conspiracism is a particular narrative form of scapegoating that frames demonized enemies as part of a vast insidious plot against the common good, while it valorizes the scapegoater as a hero for sounding the alarm
Conspiracies clearly can happen, many are discovered and no doubt some are not. I would frame someone engaged in conspiracism or a conspiracy theorist in a derogatory fashion where they indulge in intellectually lazy, often absurd claims, on the flimisiest of pretexts and extrapolating wildly from minor details, whilst engaging in whataboutery and cherry picking to ignore anything that does not fit their narrative, usually one of elites being behind everything in an implausibly effective way, often for no clear motiviation.
That is, when it has very little to go on yet that is expanded out into something very grand and specific, and it is stuck to religiously even when evidence goes against it, and especially if it makes no logical sense, then there's a decent change it is more about the person promoting themself rather than caring about the issue.
Like pornography and art it may be hard to define the precise line, but it is a fallacy of modern online debate that because something is hard to precisely define it does not therefore exist (see arguments about wokeness), and the fact is some conspiracies exist. But it is still fair to label some people and some ideas as those of conspiracy theorists, and to mean it in the sense of a particular trend of absurdity.
2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
I posted yesterday that there is no alternative to the policies of Sunak and Hunt and this is hard, very hard
The last property crisis lasted from 1991 to 2001 and there is every reason to believe this could be similar
I would gently remind folks that the 1976 labour government's financial crisis needed the intervention of the IMF with big cuts in public spending, let's hope we are not on the same course today
BoE is supposed to handle inflation and they have failed utterly.
2% target?
WTF.
Liz Truss was right in the first place that the monetary policy framework needs to be looked at again. Depoliticised CPI targetting was a superficially attractive policy but has been one of the root causes of two major crises in a row.
It just means the BOE (and every other quango for that matter) takes their cue from whatever junket that they last attended rather than from the UK Government.
And BigG is completely wrong about there not being an alternative, the alternative is to drive down the cost of energy by increasing the supply of it. This is an energy cost-driven inflation. It has bugger all to do with a consumer-driven boom. It is completely bizarre that commentators are bemoaning how rich they think everyone is in the UK at the moment.
Serious question: how much actual effect on energy supply do you think the government could have if they chose?
@Luckyguy1983 supports fracking, development of coal, and most everything that is politically impossible to achieve including no doubt abolishing net zero which is classic right wing politics at present
I'd like to see some polling of erstwhile reliable Tory seats across the North. There is a Blue Wall down there as well. The one that goes from Fylde to Scarborough and up to the border. On those kinds of numbers there'd be a lot of surprising seats falling.
Re; a post below, prt of the problem is that there isn't really enough mainstream coverage of the documented harms caused by pesticides, processed foods, and all sorts of other daily items.
This then means that these kind of concerns are disproportionately covered at the margins, which will also then include a disproportionate number of the more extreme kind of conspiracy theorists. This then, in turn, makes it easier for any large pharmaceutical, chemical and food processing interests to claim that any criticisms are conspiracy theories. A similar dynamic seems to have helped hold up UFO investigsation, althu]ough that seems to be changing most recently.
Yes, very true
It is the exact same psychological process you see with immigration/race as a subject of debate
Take Asian Grooming. No one was willing to discuss it, everyone was hushing iu up, the only person willing to talk about it was the odious thug Nick Griffin, and he even got arrested for it. So instead of throwing light on a difficult topic it became even more marginalised and cranky: "that's the kind of thing the BNP say", "You sound like Nick Griffin"
And thus a huge, real-life scandal lay buried for another decade
This happens all across the internet, it ain't just "rightwing" issues that get censored and silenced. A sad evolution
"I don't believe in conspiracy theories" is a mantra for twats. This is crystal clear as soon as one observes the contexts in which it's used.
No marks though for rhetorically conflating immigration and race into one subject.
In 2013, the WIV collected animal samples from which they identified the bat coronavirus RaTG13, which is 96.2 percent similar to the COVID-19 virus. By 2018, the WIV had sequenced almost all of RaTG13, which is the second closest known whole genome match to SARS-CoV-2, after BANAL-52, which is 96.8 percent similar. Neither of these viruses is close enough to SARS-CoV-2 to be a direct progenitor.
And:
We assess that some scientists at the WIV have genetically engineered coronaviruses using common laboratory practices. The IC has no information, however, indicating that any WIV genetic engineering work has involved SARS-CoV-2, a close progenitor, or a backbone virus that is closely-related enough to have been the source of the pandemic.
And:
Several WIV researchers were ill in Fall 2019 with symptoms; some of their symptoms were consistent with but not diagnostic of COVID-19. The IC continues to assess that this information neither supports nor refutes either hypothesis of the pandemic’s origins because the researchers’ symptoms could have been caused by a number of diseases and some of the symptoms were not consistent with COVID-19. Consistent with standard practices, those researchers likely completed annual health exams as part of their duties in a highcontainment biosafety laboratory. The IC assesses that the WIV maintains blood samples and health records of all of their laboratory personnel—which are standard procedures in highcontainment laboratories.
• We have no indications that any of these researchers were hospitalized because of the symptoms consistent with COVID-19. One researcher may have been hospitalized in this timeframe for treatment of a non-respiratory medical condition.
• China’s National Security Commission investigated the WIV in early 2020 and took blood samples from WIV researchers. According to the World Health Organization's March 2021 public report, WIV officials including Shi Zhengli—who leads the WIV laboratory group that conducts coronavirus research—stated lab employee samples all tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
Your hero, the boffin you proudly cite, went from privately saying this:
“I really can’t think of a plausible natural scenario . . . . I just can’t figure out how this [Coronavirus] gets accomplished in nature . . . . Of course, in the lab it would be easy . ."
To publicly publishing this, just 48 hours later:
"However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible."
Bravo, bravo
I think the Rothschilds are to blame for Covid.
On the contrary, it is obviously space aliens from outer space
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
In 2013, the WIV collected animal samples from which they identified the bat coronavirus RaTG13, which is 96.2 percent similar to the COVID-19 virus. By 2018, the WIV had sequenced almost all of RaTG13, which is the second closest known whole genome match to SARS-CoV-2, after BANAL-52, which is 96.8 percent similar. Neither of these viruses is close enough to SARS-CoV-2 to be a direct progenitor.
And:
We assess that some scientists at the WIV have genetically engineered coronaviruses using common laboratory practices. The IC has no information, however, indicating that any WIV genetic engineering work has involved SARS-CoV-2, a close progenitor, or a backbone virus that is closely-related enough to have been the source of the pandemic.
And:
Several WIV researchers were ill in Fall 2019 with symptoms; some of their symptoms were consistent with but not diagnostic of COVID-19. The IC continues to assess that this information neither supports nor refutes either hypothesis of the pandemic’s origins because the researchers’ symptoms could have been caused by a number of diseases and some of the symptoms were not consistent with COVID-19. Consistent with standard practices, those researchers likely completed annual health exams as part of their duties in a highcontainment biosafety laboratory. The IC assesses that the WIV maintains blood samples and health records of all of their laboratory personnel—which are standard procedures in highcontainment laboratories.
• We have no indications that any of these researchers were hospitalized because of the symptoms consistent with COVID-19. One researcher may have been hospitalized in this timeframe for treatment of a non-respiratory medical condition.
• China’s National Security Commission investigated the WIV in early 2020 and took blood samples from WIV researchers. According to the World Health Organization's March 2021 public report, WIV officials including Shi Zhengli—who leads the WIV laboratory group that conducts coronavirus research—stated lab employee samples all tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
Your hero, the boffin you proudly cite, went from privately saying this:
“I really can’t think of a plausible natural scenario . . . . I just can’t figure out how this [Coronavirus] gets accomplished in nature . . . . Of course, in the lab it would be easy . ."
To publicly publishing this, just 48 hours later:
"However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible."
Bravo, bravo
I think the Rothschilds are to blame for Covid.
On the contrary, it is obviously space aliens from outer space
Maybe the rothschilds are aliens from outer space?
"the absence of evidence for a lab leak, and in the presence of evidence for the market as the source" is mere fantasy. To believe it you have to believe that circumstantial evidence is conclusive in favour of the market and inadmissible in favour of the lab, and to ignore the huge debate about whether the furin cleavage site is likely to have arisen in nature.
The evidence for the market is not circumstantial. The early cases were clustered around the market. Environmental analyses found the virus in the market. That there were two initial strains of SARS-COV-2 is consistent with a reservoir of infected animals in the market.
It is, if course, entirely possible for the wet market to be both the focal point, and it to have been a lab leak.
That., of course, it almost certainly what happened. Leaked in the lab - the CDC more likely than the WIV - simply because of proximity - 300 metres away. Infected but pre-symptomatic lab worker went from the CDC to the market to buy a chicken. Bingo. Superspreader event, clustered around the market
It's not obvious to me.
Wild -> lab -> market is plausible and you assert that the wild -> lab bit was happening (and I have no reason to disbelieve this) but the lab -> market bit still requires some lapses that are fairly rare and the timing has to be just right (they do happen, it is certainly possible)
Wild -> market is also plausible and while you assert that wild -> animal in market is unlikely (and again I have no reason to disbelieve) there's also potential for a chain of transmission through animals (or containers, surfaces, air) to market or even indeed a person infected elsewhere (not from lab, closer to large populations of bats) taking it to the market.
I don't see a strong reason to favour one of those over the other, on the available evidence.
If the outbreak had happened in any other city in China, then a purely zoonotic origin would be the most likely scenario. That it happened in the same city where bat diseases were being actively studied skews the probabilities the other way around.
Most large Chinese cities have labs studying coronaviruses. If you're worried about zoonotic infections in China, you're looking at bat diseases. So, if the outbreak had happened in any other city in China, there's a high chance there would have been a similar lab.
This doesn't seem to be true. The number of BSL-4 labs in China is very small.
And a lab leak can come from a BSL-3 lab. After all, WCDC is not BSL-4 lab, and that's the one Leon is most animated about. If it was artificially manipulated, then the odds change. If it was a natural sample leaked (which is where the focus now lies), then it's any BSL-3 lab or higher.
(Edited - BSL-3)
The CDC was, I believe, operating at BSL 2
That's why Jeremy Farrar's first reaction, on hearing about Covid, was that the lab work in China was "like the Wild West". He also believed it probably came from the lab
Yet weirdly enough about six minutes after writing that email he signed a letter to the Lancet calling "lab leak" a baseless conspiracy theory
Funny, huh
Proof that some of this terrifying bat research was done at BSL2 level (I reckon this is the Wuhan CDC they are talking about)
"In EHA-led work conducted in Wuhan, scientists infected humanized mice with engineered novel bat coronaviruses in a BSL-3 facility, according to grant documents EHA submitted to the NIH. Some collection and engineering of bat coronaviruses were done in a BSL-2, with less stringent protocols and containment, according to multiple sources including a paper in the Journal of Virology ."
I always find it's good to look at the home page of any linked website I'm not familiar with. This one looks... interesting.
It has header sections including "Bill Gates", "Pesticides" and "ultra-processed foods"
Which *really* set my spider-senses tingling.
Fuck, yeah, why are they worried abour "Pesticides" and "Ultra-processed foods"???
What a bunch of cranks
You are a dangerous fool. Your sort of sh*t is exactly how people get dragged into cults and misinformation black holes.
And how does "Bill Gates" fit into your thinking?
No idea. Anyway I've just given you THE TIMES and Jeremy Farrar as an alternative source for the exact same information. So you can put away your angry little pecker of outrage
Exactly. You don't think. You are almost uniquely incapable of thought. Thought, to you, is just which sad girl will accept the least money for you to wait hours for the blue pills to take effect. Your brain is the nearest humanity has found to a vacuum. Scientists are examining your skull to see how something so thin can withstand a 1atm pressure difference.
Why am I reacting this way? You're going through the lableak hypothesis because it's dramatic. Because lots of people died, and you think blaming the Chinese is cool.
RFK Jr is involved with that website, and if you cared one jot for people, then he would be one person you would run a mile from. You would spit in his face. You would throw rotten tomatoes at him in the stocks. RFK Jr was one of the key people spreading MMR disinformation, hence harming efforts to stop the spread of those diseases, and harming vaccination as a whole.
*If* you had a conscience, you would eat pizzas with pineapple for the next week to make amends.
2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
Markets often get things very wrong though. I remember the consensus last October being that the pound would be below parity with the euro and the dollar by now, for example. One of many. Markets, like the rest of us, tend to assume that what's happening now will continue ("the trend is my friend" as we used to call it), and are incredibly bad at forecasting turning points.
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
In 2013, the WIV collected animal samples from which they identified the bat coronavirus RaTG13, which is 96.2 percent similar to the COVID-19 virus. By 2018, the WIV had sequenced almost all of RaTG13, which is the second closest known whole genome match to SARS-CoV-2, after BANAL-52, which is 96.8 percent similar. Neither of these viruses is close enough to SARS-CoV-2 to be a direct progenitor.
And:
We assess that some scientists at the WIV have genetically engineered coronaviruses using common laboratory practices. The IC has no information, however, indicating that any WIV genetic engineering work has involved SARS-CoV-2, a close progenitor, or a backbone virus that is closely-related enough to have been the source of the pandemic.
And:
Several WIV researchers were ill in Fall 2019 with symptoms; some of their symptoms were consistent with but not diagnostic of COVID-19. The IC continues to assess that this information neither supports nor refutes either hypothesis of the pandemic’s origins because the researchers’ symptoms could have been caused by a number of diseases and some of the symptoms were not consistent with COVID-19. Consistent with standard practices, those researchers likely completed annual health exams as part of their duties in a highcontainment biosafety laboratory. The IC assesses that the WIV maintains blood samples and health records of all of their laboratory personnel—which are standard procedures in highcontainment laboratories.
• We have no indications that any of these researchers were hospitalized because of the symptoms consistent with COVID-19. One researcher may have been hospitalized in this timeframe for treatment of a non-respiratory medical condition.
• China’s National Security Commission investigated the WIV in early 2020 and took blood samples from WIV researchers. According to the World Health Organization's March 2021 public report, WIV officials including Shi Zhengli—who leads the WIV laboratory group that conducts coronavirus research—stated lab employee samples all tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
Your hero, the boffin you proudly cite, went from privately saying this:
“I really can’t think of a plausible natural scenario . . . . I just can’t figure out how this [Coronavirus] gets accomplished in nature . . . . Of course, in the lab it would be easy . ."
To publicly publishing this, just 48 hours later:
"However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible."
Bravo, bravo
I think the Rothschilds are to blame for Covid.
On the contrary, it is obviously space aliens from outer space
Neither of you realise just how asinine those comments are, do you?
"the absence of evidence for a lab leak, and in the presence of evidence for the market as the source" is mere fantasy. To believe it you have to believe that circumstantial evidence is conclusive in favour of the market and inadmissible in favour of the lab, and to ignore the huge debate about whether the furin cleavage site is likely to have arisen in nature.
The evidence for the market is not circumstantial. The early cases were clustered around the market. Environmental analyses found the virus in the market. That there were two initial strains of SARS-COV-2 is consistent with a reservoir of infected animals in the market.
It is, if course, entirely possible for the wet market to be both the focal point, and it to have been a lab leak.
That., of course, it almost certainly what happened. Leaked in the lab - the CDC more likely than the WIV - simply because of proximity - 300 metres away. Infected but pre-symptomatic lab worker went from the CDC to the market to buy a chicken. Bingo. Superspreader event, clustered around the market
It's not obvious to me.
Wild -> lab -> market is plausible and you assert that the wild -> lab bit was happening (and I have no reason to disbelieve this) but the lab -> market bit still requires some lapses that are fairly rare and the timing has to be just right (they do happen, it is certainly possible)
Wild -> market is also plausible and while you assert that wild -> animal in market is unlikely (and again I have no reason to disbelieve) there's also potential for a chain of transmission through animals (or containers, surfaces, air) to market or even indeed a person infected elsewhere (not from lab, closer to large populations of bats) taking it to the market.
I don't see a strong reason to favour one of those over the other, on the available evidence.
If the outbreak had happened in any other city in China, then a purely zoonotic origin would be the most likely scenario. That it happened in the same city where bat diseases were being actively studied skews the probabilities the other way around.
Most large Chinese cities have labs studying coronaviruses. If you're worried about zoonotic infections in China, you're looking at bat diseases. So, if the outbreak had happened in any other city in China, there's a high chance there would have been a similar lab.
This doesn't seem to be true. The number of BSL-4 labs in China is very small.
And a lab leak can come from a BSL-3 lab. After all, WCDC is not BSL-4 lab, and that's the one Leon is most animated about. If it was artificially manipulated, then the odds change. If it was a natural sample leaked (which is where the focus now lies), then it's any BSL-3 lab or higher.
(Edited - BSL-3)
The CDC was, I believe, operating at BSL 2
That's why Jeremy Farrar's first reaction, on hearing about Covid, was that the lab work in China was "like the Wild West". He also believed it probably came from the lab
Yet weirdly enough about six minutes after writing that email he signed a letter to the Lancet calling "lab leak" a baseless conspiracy theory
Funny, huh
Proof that some of this terrifying bat research was done at BSL2 level (I reckon this is the Wuhan CDC they are talking about)
"In EHA-led work conducted in Wuhan, scientists infected humanized mice with engineered novel bat coronaviruses in a BSL-3 facility, according to grant documents EHA submitted to the NIH. Some collection and engineering of bat coronaviruses were done in a BSL-2, with less stringent protocols and containment, according to multiple sources including a paper in the Journal of Virology ."
I always find it's good to look at the home page of any linked website I'm not familiar with. This one looks... interesting.
It has header sections including "Bill Gates", "Pesticides" and "ultra-processed foods"
Which *really* set my spider-senses tingling.
Fuck, yeah, why are they worried abour "Pesticides" and "Ultra-processed foods"???
What a bunch of cranks
You are a dangerous fool. Your sort of sh*t is exactly how people get dragged into cults and misinformation black holes.
And how does "Bill Gates" fit into your thinking?
No idea. Anyway I've just given you THE TIMES and Jeremy Farrar as an alternative source for the exact same information. So you can put away your angry little pecker of outrage
Exactly. You don't think. You are almost uniquely incapable of thought. Thought, to you, is just which sad girl will accept the least money for you to wait hours for the blue pills to take effect. Your brain is the nearest humanity has found to a vacuum. Scientists are examining your skull to see how something so thin can withstand a 1atm pressure difference.
Why am I reacting this way? You're going through the lableak hypothesis because it's dramatic. Because lots of people died, and you think blaming the Chinese is cool.
RFK Jr is involved with that website, and if you cared one jot for people, then he would be one person you would run a mile from. You would spit in his face. You would throw rotten tomatoes at him in the stocks. RFK Jr was one of the key people spreading MMR disinformation, hence harming efforts to stop the spread of those diseases, and harming vaccination as a whole.
*If* you had a conscience, you would eat pizzas with pineapple for the next week to make amends.
But you don't have a conscience.
If RFK Jr ends up Democratic nominee next year, then even Trump or De Santis would be more supportive of vaccines and lockdowns
In 2013, the WIV collected animal samples from which they identified the bat coronavirus RaTG13, which is 96.2 percent similar to the COVID-19 virus. By 2018, the WIV had sequenced almost all of RaTG13, which is the second closest known whole genome match to SARS-CoV-2, after BANAL-52, which is 96.8 percent similar. Neither of these viruses is close enough to SARS-CoV-2 to be a direct progenitor.
And:
We assess that some scientists at the WIV have genetically engineered coronaviruses using common laboratory practices. The IC has no information, however, indicating that any WIV genetic engineering work has involved SARS-CoV-2, a close progenitor, or a backbone virus that is closely-related enough to have been the source of the pandemic.
And:
Several WIV researchers were ill in Fall 2019 with symptoms; some of their symptoms were consistent with but not diagnostic of COVID-19. The IC continues to assess that this information neither supports nor refutes either hypothesis of the pandemic’s origins because the researchers’ symptoms could have been caused by a number of diseases and some of the symptoms were not consistent with COVID-19. Consistent with standard practices, those researchers likely completed annual health exams as part of their duties in a highcontainment biosafety laboratory. The IC assesses that the WIV maintains blood samples and health records of all of their laboratory personnel—which are standard procedures in highcontainment laboratories.
• We have no indications that any of these researchers were hospitalized because of the symptoms consistent with COVID-19. One researcher may have been hospitalized in this timeframe for treatment of a non-respiratory medical condition.
• China’s National Security Commission investigated the WIV in early 2020 and took blood samples from WIV researchers. According to the World Health Organization's March 2021 public report, WIV officials including Shi Zhengli—who leads the WIV laboratory group that conducts coronavirus research—stated lab employee samples all tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
Your hero, the boffin you proudly cite, went from privately saying this:
“I really can’t think of a plausible natural scenario . . . . I just can’t figure out how this [Coronavirus] gets accomplished in nature . . . . Of course, in the lab it would be easy . ."
To publicly publishing this, just 48 hours later:
"However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible."
Bravo, bravo
I think the Rothschilds are to blame for Covid.
On the contrary, it is obviously space aliens from outer space
Fool. Where do you think the Rothschilds come from?
2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
I posted yesterday that there is no alternative to the policies of Sunak and Hunt and this is hard, very hard
The last property crisis lasted from 1991 to 2001 and there is every reason to believe this could be similar
I would gently remind folks that the 1976 labour government's financial crisis needed the intervention of the IMF with big cuts in public spending, let's hope we are not on the same course today
BoE is supposed to handle inflation and they have failed utterly.
2% target?
WTF.
Liz Truss was right in the first place that the monetary policy framework needs to be looked at again. Depoliticised CPI targetting was a superficially attractive policy but has been one of the root causes of two major crises in a row.
It just means the BOE (and every other quango for that matter) takes their cue from whatever junket that they last attended rather than from the UK Government.
And BigG is completely wrong about there not being an alternative, the alternative is to drive down the cost of energy by increasing the supply of it. This is an energy cost-driven inflation. It has bugger all to do with a consumer-driven boom. It is completely bizarre that commentators are bemoaning how rich they think everyone is in the UK at the moment.
Serious question: how much actual effect on energy supply do you think the government could have if they chose?
@Luckyguy1983 supports fracking, development of coal, and most everything that is politically impossible to achieve including no doubt abolishing net zero which is classic right wing politics at present
I know, and none of those things will make any significant impact on global energy supplies - unlike further investment in renewables which bizarrely he is against.
"the absence of evidence for a lab leak, and in the presence of evidence for the market as the source" is mere fantasy. To believe it you have to believe that circumstantial evidence is conclusive in favour of the market and inadmissible in favour of the lab, and to ignore the huge debate about whether the furin cleavage site is likely to have arisen in nature.
The evidence for the market is not circumstantial. The early cases were clustered around the market. Environmental analyses found the virus in the market. That there were two initial strains of SARS-COV-2 is consistent with a reservoir of infected animals in the market.
It is, if course, entirely possible for the wet market to be both the focal point, and it to have been a lab leak.
That., of course, it almost certainly what happened. Leaked in the lab - the CDC more likely than the WIV - simply because of proximity - 300 metres away. Infected but pre-symptomatic lab worker went from the CDC to the market to buy a chicken. Bingo. Superspreader event, clustered around the market
It's not obvious to me.
Wild -> lab -> market is plausible and you assert that the wild -> lab bit was happening (and I have no reason to disbelieve this) but the lab -> market bit still requires some lapses that are fairly rare and the timing has to be just right (they do happen, it is certainly possible)
Wild -> market is also plausible and while you assert that wild -> animal in market is unlikely (and again I have no reason to disbelieve) there's also potential for a chain of transmission through animals (or containers, surfaces, air) to market or even indeed a person infected elsewhere (not from lab, closer to large populations of bats) taking it to the market.
I don't see a strong reason to favour one of those over the other, on the available evidence.
If the outbreak had happened in any other city in China, then a purely zoonotic origin would be the most likely scenario. That it happened in the same city where bat diseases were being actively studied skews the probabilities the other way around.
Most large Chinese cities have labs studying coronaviruses. If you're worried about zoonotic infections in China, you're looking at bat diseases. So, if the outbreak had happened in any other city in China, there's a high chance there would have been a similar lab.
This doesn't seem to be true. The number of BSL-4 labs in China is very small.
And a lab leak can come from a BSL-3 lab. After all, WCDC is not BSL-4 lab, and that's the one Leon is most animated about. If it was artificially manipulated, then the odds change. If it was a natural sample leaked (which is where the focus now lies), then it's any BSL-3 lab or higher.
(Edited - BSL-3)
The CDC was, I believe, operating at BSL 2
That's why Jeremy Farrar's first reaction, on hearing about Covid, was that the lab work in China was "like the Wild West". He also believed it probably came from the lab
Yet weirdly enough about six minutes after writing that email he signed a letter to the Lancet calling "lab leak" a baseless conspiracy theory
Funny, huh
Proof that some of this terrifying bat research was done at BSL2 level (I reckon this is the Wuhan CDC they are talking about)
"In EHA-led work conducted in Wuhan, scientists infected humanized mice with engineered novel bat coronaviruses in a BSL-3 facility, according to grant documents EHA submitted to the NIH. Some collection and engineering of bat coronaviruses were done in a BSL-2, with less stringent protocols and containment, according to multiple sources including a paper in the Journal of Virology ."
Curious that Leon, so assiduous in finding out any controversy amongst those looking into things, missed this.
I don't think it is disputed that dodgy research was, scarily, done at lower level biosecurity labs in Wuhan
Here you go. How about The Times? Good enough?
"The unredacted tranche [of emails], released under freedom of information rules, shows that the [western] scientists were especially shocked by learning the details of one of the experiments being carried out in Wuhan. This involved passing a virus between mice that had been genetically modified to express the receptor proteins used by coronavirus to infect cells.
Francis Collins, then the head of the US National Institutes of Health, which helped fund some of the research in Wuhan, said on February 4, “Surely that wouldn’t be done in a BSL-2 lab?”. BSL-2 refers to only a medium level of biosecurity. “Wild West,” Farrar replied."
"The email discussions took place among an elite group of scientists rounded up by Fauci and Farrar after the media began to probe research into bat coronaviruses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where scientists were engaged in ‘gain of function’ experiments that can boost infectivity. Such work was banned for three years in the US amid fears it might spark a pandemic.
Although the Wuhan laboratory was the first in China with maximum-level biosafety clearance, the group of experts confirmed that researchers there carried out risky experiments under ‘BSL-2’ conditions with much lower level safety protocols.
Their work included transferring viruses in mice engineered to contain the human version of a receptor protein on cell surfaces used by some coronaviruses to infect our bodies."
The Times were also the ones who recently published the bollocks on "the three researchers" and the rest of it that was flattened by the recent intelligence report release which not only didn't say what was claimed, but contradicted it completely.
No-one has presented a coherent lab leak theory that hasn't been contradicted by the available evidence or require multiple leaps of faith. I haven't seen a decent peer-reviewed paper on the theory at all, but have seen many on the zoonosis option.
Just handwaving, switching between different options, ignoring when something's been disproven to leap onto another line, and then occasional abuse. No illumination.
Ah, so now The Times is a cranky journal full of lab leak loons? Got it. And when Jeremy Farrar, then head of Wellcome, described the Wuhan labs as "Wild West" in terms of biosecurity, he was in fact referring to their stringently brilliant safety record?
Jesus effing Christ. Look at yourself. I'm done with debating the zoonazis for the day
Off to the gym. Enjoy your happy happy fuckwit-world
Genuinely striking how raw this is for you. It's like it's a cypher for something else, something quite profound. If it was a lab leak the reality of life and the world is aligned to your view of it. You'll be grounded and able to relax. If it wasn't, nothing makes sense anymore and you'll be unmoored and nauseated by that feeling. It reminds me a little bit of the JFK assassination in this respect.
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
2 year UK gilt now at 5.24% new 15 year high, half a %age point above post mini budget peak. markets now see 70% chance of rates over 6% by end of year…
I posted yesterday that there is no alternative to the policies of Sunak and Hunt and this is hard, very hard
The last property crisis lasted from 1991 to 2001 and there is every reason to believe this could be similar
I would gently remind folks that the 1976 labour government's financial crisis needed the intervention of the IMF with big cuts in public spending, let's hope we are not on the same course today
BoE is supposed to handle inflation and they have failed utterly.
2% target?
WTF.
Liz Truss was right in the first place that the monetary policy framework needs to be looked at again. Depoliticised CPI targetting was a superficially attractive policy but has been one of the root causes of two major crises in a row.
It just means the BOE (and every other quango for that matter) takes their cue from whatever junket that they last attended rather than from the UK Government.
And BigG is completely wrong about there not being an alternative, the alternative is to drive down the cost of energy by increasing the supply of it. This is an energy cost-driven inflation. It has bugger all to do with a consumer-driven boom. It is completely bizarre that commentators are bemoaning how rich they think everyone is in the UK at the moment.
Serious question: how much actual effect on energy supply do you think the government could have if they chose?
@Luckyguy1983 supports fracking, development of coal, and most everything that is politically impossible to achieve including no doubt abolishing net zero which is classic right wing politics at present
I know, and none of those things will make any significant impact on global energy supplies - unlike further investment in renewables which bizarrely he is against.
The present crisis is deeply disturbing and frankly I would be content for the conservatives to go into opposition and hand the whole problem of government over to Starmer and labour
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.
You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then
...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.
Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get
In that slice of seats, very probably not. But that's bad news for the Conservatives; if there were a Lib/Lab split, it might let some Conservatives cling on. The more efficiently distributed the non-Conservative vote, the worse it is for Team Rishi.
I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.
You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then
And lose anyone like me that is starting to think they would rather not have a Labour landslide. I will vote Tory, but if that lying lazy self-centred egotist that you seem to have a man-crush on were in someway returned to lead the Conservatives then that would be one possibility where I would abstain.
Viktor Orban truly is a good friend to the EU, NATO and the West
In his view the reality is that the current Western approach to Ukraine is doomed for failure, as the Ukrainians will run out of soldiers sooner than Russians. In his view, the opinions that Ukraine can win a war against Russia is based on a misunderstanding of the situation. “It is impossible”, claimed Viktor Orbán.
The Hungarian Prime Minister stressed the importance of peace talks because he feared that Ukraine will continue to lose a huge amount of wealth and many lives, while suffering unimaginable destruction. Peace at this moment means ceasefire, he explained.
As to voices calling for the liberation of all lost Ukrainian territories, the politician replied by saying that what really matters is what the Americans’ intentions are, because Ukraine is no longer a sovereign country: they do not have money nor weapons. They can only fight because we in the West support them. There will only be peace if and when the Americans decide so.
He also maintained that there should have been peace negotiations from the very beginning. To prevent this war from becoming global, it must be isolated, and a shift must be made from the military solution back to the politicians and diplomats, because this war should not have happened.
He'd fit in very well at a Peace and Justice rally, or a Saturday morning troll - all about how he just wants peace, but conveniently supports policies which would only give peace on terms favourable to Russia, and it's all really the americans fault, and it could have been stopped at the start but it's not Russia's fault that somehow it did.
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
In 2013, the WIV collected animal samples from which they identified the bat coronavirus RaTG13, which is 96.2 percent similar to the COVID-19 virus. By 2018, the WIV had sequenced almost all of RaTG13, which is the second closest known whole genome match to SARS-CoV-2, after BANAL-52, which is 96.8 percent similar. Neither of these viruses is close enough to SARS-CoV-2 to be a direct progenitor.
And:
We assess that some scientists at the WIV have genetically engineered coronaviruses using common laboratory practices. The IC has no information, however, indicating that any WIV genetic engineering work has involved SARS-CoV-2, a close progenitor, or a backbone virus that is closely-related enough to have been the source of the pandemic.
And:
Several WIV researchers were ill in Fall 2019 with symptoms; some of their symptoms were consistent with but not diagnostic of COVID-19. The IC continues to assess that this information neither supports nor refutes either hypothesis of the pandemic’s origins because the researchers’ symptoms could have been caused by a number of diseases and some of the symptoms were not consistent with COVID-19. Consistent with standard practices, those researchers likely completed annual health exams as part of their duties in a highcontainment biosafety laboratory. The IC assesses that the WIV maintains blood samples and health records of all of their laboratory personnel—which are standard procedures in highcontainment laboratories.
• We have no indications that any of these researchers were hospitalized because of the symptoms consistent with COVID-19. One researcher may have been hospitalized in this timeframe for treatment of a non-respiratory medical condition.
• China’s National Security Commission investigated the WIV in early 2020 and took blood samples from WIV researchers. According to the World Health Organization's March 2021 public report, WIV officials including Shi Zhengli—who leads the WIV laboratory group that conducts coronavirus research—stated lab employee samples all tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
Your hero, the boffin you proudly cite, went from privately saying this:
“I really can’t think of a plausible natural scenario . . . . I just can’t figure out how this [Coronavirus] gets accomplished in nature . . . . Of course, in the lab it would be easy . ."
To publicly publishing this, just 48 hours later:
"However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible."
Bravo, bravo
I think the Rothschilds are to blame for Covid.
On the contrary, it is obviously space aliens from outer space
Neither of you realise just how asinine those comments are, do you?
It was a joke and not meant to be taken literally. This was indicated by my use of a non-existent phenomenon "aliens" and my use of over-specification "space aliens from outer space" to highlight the use of humor, and hopefully bring a wry smile to the readers of PB.
As it has not amused you, I shall cancel my booking in this year's Edinburgh Fringe where I address the use of overexaggeration and fictional examples in comedy, which involves many graphs and a flotilla of drones flying over Arthur's Seat before the emergence of a prehistoric dragon from the secret chamber beneath.
In 2013, the WIV collected animal samples from which they identified the bat coronavirus RaTG13, which is 96.2 percent similar to the COVID-19 virus. By 2018, the WIV had sequenced almost all of RaTG13, which is the second closest known whole genome match to SARS-CoV-2, after BANAL-52, which is 96.8 percent similar. Neither of these viruses is close enough to SARS-CoV-2 to be a direct progenitor.
And:
We assess that some scientists at the WIV have genetically engineered coronaviruses using common laboratory practices. The IC has no information, however, indicating that any WIV genetic engineering work has involved SARS-CoV-2, a close progenitor, or a backbone virus that is closely-related enough to have been the source of the pandemic.
And:
Several WIV researchers were ill in Fall 2019 with symptoms; some of their symptoms were consistent with but not diagnostic of COVID-19. The IC continues to assess that this information neither supports nor refutes either hypothesis of the pandemic’s origins because the researchers’ symptoms could have been caused by a number of diseases and some of the symptoms were not consistent with COVID-19. Consistent with standard practices, those researchers likely completed annual health exams as part of their duties in a highcontainment biosafety laboratory. The IC assesses that the WIV maintains blood samples and health records of all of their laboratory personnel—which are standard procedures in highcontainment laboratories.
• We have no indications that any of these researchers were hospitalized because of the symptoms consistent with COVID-19. One researcher may have been hospitalized in this timeframe for treatment of a non-respiratory medical condition.
• China’s National Security Commission investigated the WIV in early 2020 and took blood samples from WIV researchers. According to the World Health Organization's March 2021 public report, WIV officials including Shi Zhengli—who leads the WIV laboratory group that conducts coronavirus research—stated lab employee samples all tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
Your hero, the boffin you proudly cite, went from privately saying this:
“I really can’t think of a plausible natural scenario . . . . I just can’t figure out how this [Coronavirus] gets accomplished in nature . . . . Of course, in the lab it would be easy . ."
To publicly publishing this, just 48 hours later:
"However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible."
Bravo, bravo
I think the Rothschilds are to blame for Covid.
On the contrary, it is obviously space aliens from outer space
Neither of you realise just how asinine those comments are, do you?
It was a joke and not meant to be taken literally. This was indicated by my use of a non-existent phenomenon "aliens" and my use of over-specification "space aliens from outer space" to highlight the use of humor, and hopefully bring a wry smile to the readers of PB.
As it has not amused you, I shall cancel my booking in this year's Edinburgh Fringe where I address the use of overexaggeration and fictional examples in comedy, which involves many graphs and a flotilla of drones flying over Arthur's Seat before the emergence of a prehistoric dragon from the secret chamber beneath.
Continue your booking, Westie just had a sense of humour bypass as a child
In 2013, the WIV collected animal samples from which they identified the bat coronavirus RaTG13, which is 96.2 percent similar to the COVID-19 virus. By 2018, the WIV had sequenced almost all of RaTG13, which is the second closest known whole genome match to SARS-CoV-2, after BANAL-52, which is 96.8 percent similar. Neither of these viruses is close enough to SARS-CoV-2 to be a direct progenitor.
And:
We assess that some scientists at the WIV have genetically engineered coronaviruses using common laboratory practices. The IC has no information, however, indicating that any WIV genetic engineering work has involved SARS-CoV-2, a close progenitor, or a backbone virus that is closely-related enough to have been the source of the pandemic.
And:
Several WIV researchers were ill in Fall 2019 with symptoms; some of their symptoms were consistent with but not diagnostic of COVID-19. The IC continues to assess that this information neither supports nor refutes either hypothesis of the pandemic’s origins because the researchers’ symptoms could have been caused by a number of diseases and some of the symptoms were not consistent with COVID-19. Consistent with standard practices, those researchers likely completed annual health exams as part of their duties in a highcontainment biosafety laboratory. The IC assesses that the WIV maintains blood samples and health records of all of their laboratory personnel—which are standard procedures in highcontainment laboratories.
• We have no indications that any of these researchers were hospitalized because of the symptoms consistent with COVID-19. One researcher may have been hospitalized in this timeframe for treatment of a non-respiratory medical condition.
• China’s National Security Commission investigated the WIV in early 2020 and took blood samples from WIV researchers. According to the World Health Organization's March 2021 public report, WIV officials including Shi Zhengli—who leads the WIV laboratory group that conducts coronavirus research—stated lab employee samples all tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
Your hero, the boffin you proudly cite, went from privately saying this:
“I really can’t think of a plausible natural scenario . . . . I just can’t figure out how this [Coronavirus] gets accomplished in nature . . . . Of course, in the lab it would be easy . ."
To publicly publishing this, just 48 hours later:
"However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible."
Bravo, bravo
I think the Rothschilds are to blame for Covid.
On the contrary, it is obviously space aliens from outer space
Fool. Where do you think the Rothschilds come from?
How could I have been so foolish! It all makes sense now!
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
In 2013, the WIV collected animal samples from which they identified the bat coronavirus RaTG13, which is 96.2 percent similar to the COVID-19 virus. By 2018, the WIV had sequenced almost all of RaTG13, which is the second closest known whole genome match to SARS-CoV-2, after BANAL-52, which is 96.8 percent similar. Neither of these viruses is close enough to SARS-CoV-2 to be a direct progenitor.
And:
We assess that some scientists at the WIV have genetically engineered coronaviruses using common laboratory practices. The IC has no information, however, indicating that any WIV genetic engineering work has involved SARS-CoV-2, a close progenitor, or a backbone virus that is closely-related enough to have been the source of the pandemic.
And:
Several WIV researchers were ill in Fall 2019 with symptoms; some of their symptoms were consistent with but not diagnostic of COVID-19. The IC continues to assess that this information neither supports nor refutes either hypothesis of the pandemic’s origins because the researchers’ symptoms could have been caused by a number of diseases and some of the symptoms were not consistent with COVID-19. Consistent with standard practices, those researchers likely completed annual health exams as part of their duties in a highcontainment biosafety laboratory. The IC assesses that the WIV maintains blood samples and health records of all of their laboratory personnel—which are standard procedures in highcontainment laboratories.
• We have no indications that any of these researchers were hospitalized because of the symptoms consistent with COVID-19. One researcher may have been hospitalized in this timeframe for treatment of a non-respiratory medical condition.
• China’s National Security Commission investigated the WIV in early 2020 and took blood samples from WIV researchers. According to the World Health Organization's March 2021 public report, WIV officials including Shi Zhengli—who leads the WIV laboratory group that conducts coronavirus research—stated lab employee samples all tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
Your hero, the boffin you proudly cite, went from privately saying this:
“I really can’t think of a plausible natural scenario . . . . I just can’t figure out how this [Coronavirus] gets accomplished in nature . . . . Of course, in the lab it would be easy . ."
To publicly publishing this, just 48 hours later:
"However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible."
Bravo, bravo
I think the Rothschilds are to blame for Covid.
On the contrary, it is obviously space aliens from outer space
Neither of you realise just how asinine those comments are, do you?
It was a joke and not meant to be taken literally. This was indicated by my use of a non-existent phenomenon "aliens" and my use of over-specification "space aliens from outer space" to highlight the use of humor, and hopefully bring a wry smile to the readers of PB.
As it has not amused you, I shall cancel my booking in this year's Edinburgh Fringe where I address the use of overexaggeration and fictional examples in comedy, which involves many graphs and a flotilla of drones flying over Arthur's Seat before the emergence of a prehistoric dragon from the secret chamber beneath.
Continue your booking, Westie just had a sense of humour bypass as a child
Excellent! (whispers into amulet: "soon, Draco, soon...")
Re; a post below, prt of the problem is that there isn't really enough mainstream coverage of the documented harms caused by pesticides, processed foods, and all sorts of other daily items.
This then means that these kind of concerns are disproportionately covered at the margins, which will also then include a disproportionate number of the more extreme kind of conspiracy theorists. This then, in turn, makes it easier for any large pharmaceutical, chemical and food processing interests to claim that any criticisms are conspiracy theories. A similar dynamic seems to have helped hold up UFO investigsation, althu]ough that seems to be changing most recently.
Yes, very true
It is the exact same psychological process you see with immigration/race as a subject of debate
Take Asian Grooming. No one was willing to discuss it, everyone was hushing iu up, the only person willing to talk about it was the odious thug Nick Griffin, and he even got arrested for it. So instead of throwing light on a difficult topic it became even more marginalised and cranky: "that's the kind of thing the BNP say", "You sound like Nick Griffin"
And thus a huge, real-life scandal lay buried for another decade
This happens all across the internet, it ain't just "rightwing" issues that get censored and silenced. A sad evolution
Leon's just discovered the Boy Who Cried Wolf fable... and wants to blame the outcome on the villagers
I kind of do too - they should have beaten the boy black and blue for lying, the little shit, but the risks of not repsonding to a call were catastrophic for them and their livelihood, so they still should have responded.
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
Banana is a fantastic flavour for pizzas. Especially in combination with bacon. 🥓🍌😋
As I find banana's absolutely repulsive, even the smell of them from someone else eating one makes me gag....that is a no
That's an odd one. Did you have a traumatic experience with a banana at some point?
Nope just always found the taste, smell and texture of them to be absolutely gag worthy. I am far from a picky eater and I think about the only food I wont touch
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
Banana is a fantastic flavour for pizzas. Especially in combination with bacon. 🥓🍌😋
As I find banana's absolutely repulsive, even the smell of them from someone else eating one makes me gag....that is a no
That's an odd one. Did you have a traumatic experience with a banana at some point?
Nope just always found the taste, smell and texture of them to be absolutely gag worthy. I am far from a picky eater and I think about the only food I wont touch
I'm the same with Strawberries. Can sniff them from across a room, horrible.
I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.
You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then
And lose anyone like me that is starting to think they would rather not have a Labour landslide. I will vote Tory, but if that lying lazy self-centred egotist that you seem to have a man-crush on were in someway returned to lead the Conservatives then that would be one possibility where I would abstain.
You didn't even vote Tory in 2019 when Boris won a landslide. You are now voting Tory under Rishi maybe but given polls now suggest a Labour landslide it is not much use to the Tories winning you back but losing all the redwall to Starmer Labour is it?
Somerton and Frome will be a LD gain I think. Uxbridge I think could be a Tory hold due to a more local Tory candidate who is a Hillingdon councillor than the Camden councillor Labour candidate and the high Hindu vote.
Selby could go either way, narrow Tory hold or narrow Labour gain
Really – the Tories are available at 10/1 to hold the seat, also presume you'll be stacking your wads on that?
FWIW I'm told that there are literally hundreds of Labour helpers on the ground in Uxbridge. Not hearing that about Somerton and Frome, and suspect that the unofficial, unspoken different focus of L and LD is happening again.
What do you make of the much-vaunted Ulez-x factor?
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
Banana is a fantastic flavour for pizzas. Especially in combination with bacon. 🥓🍌😋
As I find banana's absolutely repulsive, even the smell of them from someone else eating one makes me gag....that is a no
That's an odd one. Did you have a traumatic experience with a banana at some point?
Nope just always found the taste, smell and texture of them to be absolutely gag worthy. I am far from a picky eater and I think about the only food I wont touch
I'm the same with Strawberries. Can sniff them from across a room, horrible.
I have banana and strawberries with my Oatibix etc of a morning ...
The notion that pay policy should be used to curb inflation was rightly castigated 50 years ago by Enoch Powell when he asked Heath if he’d taken leave of his senses, by introducing pay controls.
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
In 2013, the WIV collected animal samples from which they identified the bat coronavirus RaTG13, which is 96.2 percent similar to the COVID-19 virus. By 2018, the WIV had sequenced almost all of RaTG13, which is the second closest known whole genome match to SARS-CoV-2, after BANAL-52, which is 96.8 percent similar. Neither of these viruses is close enough to SARS-CoV-2 to be a direct progenitor.
And:
We assess that some scientists at the WIV have genetically engineered coronaviruses using common laboratory practices. The IC has no information, however, indicating that any WIV genetic engineering work has involved SARS-CoV-2, a close progenitor, or a backbone virus that is closely-related enough to have been the source of the pandemic.
And:
Several WIV researchers were ill in Fall 2019 with symptoms; some of their symptoms were consistent with but not diagnostic of COVID-19. The IC continues to assess that this information neither supports nor refutes either hypothesis of the pandemic’s origins because the researchers’ symptoms could have been caused by a number of diseases and some of the symptoms were not consistent with COVID-19. Consistent with standard practices, those researchers likely completed annual health exams as part of their duties in a highcontainment biosafety laboratory. The IC assesses that the WIV maintains blood samples and health records of all of their laboratory personnel—which are standard procedures in highcontainment laboratories.
• We have no indications that any of these researchers were hospitalized because of the symptoms consistent with COVID-19. One researcher may have been hospitalized in this timeframe for treatment of a non-respiratory medical condition.
• China’s National Security Commission investigated the WIV in early 2020 and took blood samples from WIV researchers. According to the World Health Organization's March 2021 public report, WIV officials including Shi Zhengli—who leads the WIV laboratory group that conducts coronavirus research—stated lab employee samples all tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
Your hero, the boffin you proudly cite, went from privately saying this:
“I really can’t think of a plausible natural scenario . . . . I just can’t figure out how this [Coronavirus] gets accomplished in nature . . . . Of course, in the lab it would be easy . ."
To publicly publishing this, just 48 hours later:
"However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible."
Bravo, bravo
I think the Rothschilds are to blame for Covid.
On the contrary, it is obviously space aliens from outer space
Fool. Where do you think the Rothschilds come from?
How could I have been so foolish! It all makes sense now!
Exactly. It’s *always* Woke Trans Gay Illegal Immigrant Alien AIs.
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
I mean this is just bread with chocolate spread (and a few random toppings). Not my cup of tea but a combo enjoyed by millions the world over at breakfast each day.
I’d be interested to see a ‘what if Tories were still led by Boris’ version of this polling.
You could certainly add some that 9% RefUK total to the Tories then
...and even more of that 26% Tory total to the LDs and Labour.
Labour maybe, the lib dems will not end up on anymore seats than they currently get
You think the LDs will end up with just 12 or so seats?
Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.
I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
Did you bother to even read that article before you posted it?
"Fish fingers are still a good way to get the wary to eat fish. After Birds Eye developed fish fingers, it created the tagline “no bones, no waste, no smell, no fuss” and that still holds. So what else is in there? Nothing too odd, it seems."
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
1) cut cod or haddock into finger sized pieces. 2) wisk a whole egg or 2 - put the fish in bowl and make sure they are well coated. 3) roll in some good, coarse, breadcrumbs. Set the rolled pieces out on a board, while you… 4) heat frying pan with a good layer of vegetable oil at the bottom - a mm or 2, not a pond 5) when it is good and hot, start frying. 6) turn after a couple of minutes. BBQ tongs are awesome for this.
Comments
The last decade and a bit have shown that public sector workers can put up quite a lot of real terms pay cuts. (In reality, the pay stopped being viable for recruitment and retention a while back, but enough existing staff were willing to endure.)
Last year's awards, especially on conjunction with the inflation surge, crossed the line from tolerably poor to taking the Mickey. Hence all the strikes. And the usual dynamic here is that the employer
has to overcompensate to shut everyone up again. The dark rumours that the government is trying to find a way of avoiding the pay review recommendations isn't helping.
Incidentally, what happens next with the nurses? They can't strike, but a decent number of extra "no" votes would have allowed the ballot to pass. Is there a cooling off period before they can be asked again?
That sort of thing makes people twitchy about appearing to endorse them, and thus the comments about "We're not supporting a conspiracy theory, are we?" and hesitation.
Albeit they DID end up considering it in depth, anyway.
But your original claim was that *seeking* (as opposed to getting) high pay awards was inflationary, and that seems a flawed argument in that someone can seek what they want, but it doesn't involve cranking up the cash printing presses unless they get it.
And how does "Bill Gates" fit into your thinking?
Sunak fans please explain?
Labour leads by 27% in the Red Wall, enough to win back ALL 40 of these seats in the next GE.
Red Wall VI (25 June):
Labour 53% (+3)
Conservative 26% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 11 June
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1673722860387586048
Here you go. How about The Times? Good enough?
"The unredacted tranche [of emails], released under freedom of information rules, shows that the [western] scientists were especially shocked by learning the details of one of the experiments being carried out in Wuhan. This involved passing a virus between mice that had been genetically modified to express the receptor proteins used by coronavirus to infect cells.
Francis Collins, then the head of the US National Institutes of Health, which helped fund some of the research in Wuhan, said on February 4, “Surely that wouldn’t be done in a BSL-2 lab?”. BSL-2 refers to only a medium level of biosecurity. “Wild West,” Farrar replied."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scientist-in-covid-talks-lamented-wild-west-of-wuhan-biosecurity-flxdf27fh
More here:
"The email discussions took place among an elite group of scientists rounded up by Fauci and Farrar after the media began to probe research into bat coronaviruses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where scientists were engaged in ‘gain of function’ experiments that can boost infectivity. Such work was banned for three years in the US amid fears it might spark a pandemic.
Although the Wuhan laboratory was the first in China with maximum-level biosafety clearance, the group of experts confirmed that researchers there carried out risky experiments under ‘BSL-2’ conditions with much lower level safety protocols.
Their work included transferring viruses in mice engineered to contain the human version of a receptor protein on cell surfaces used by some coronaviruses to infect our bodies."
They may still have got it wrong, but at least the system wouldn't have been based on a fiction.
Link to full detail map is in this picture of it
There are several German (Tedeschi) enclaves; one across the Poland Ukraine border, one in north east Romania (Moldova, and Transnistria, now?), one north east of Crimea, and quite a large one north east of Stalingrad
That final one, deep into Russia, was of most interest to me. I'd never heard of the Volga Germans
They'd originally been invited by fellow German, Catherine the Great, to come and settle in Russia. They'd been given rights to a certain amount of autonomy for over 150 years, until the communists came in
Then their autonomy started to be eroded and many emigrated, mostly to the Americas and Kyrgyzstan. Those that remained, about one and a half million, were deported to Siberian camps from '39 to '41
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volga_Germans
This then means that these kind of concerns are disproportionately covered at the margins, which will also then include a disproportionate number of the more extreme kind of conspiracy theorists. This, in turn, makes it easier for any large pharmaceutical, chemical and food processing interests to claim that any criticisms are conspiracy theories. A similar dynamic, emphasised this time by governmental authorities, but also invoking more generalised cultural prejudice in populations, also seems to have helped hold up UFO investigations, although that seems to be changing most recently.
And BigG is completely wrong about there not being an alternative, the alternative is to drive down the cost of energy by increasing the supply of it. This is an energy cost-driven inflation. It has bugger all to do with a consumer-driven boom. It is completely bizarre that commentators are bemoaning how rich they think everyone is in the UK at the moment.
My argument doesn't rely on central bankers being infallible... they demonstrably aren't. It relies on politicians being more fallible because of the strong incentive they have not to cause short term pain for a benefit that may well not be felt until your successor comes into office (at which point you'll not get credit).
No-one has presented a coherent lab leak theory that hasn't been contradicted by the available evidence or require multiple leaps of faith. I haven't seen a decent peer-reviewed paper on the theory at all, but have seen many on the zoonosis option.
Just handwaving, switching between different options, ignoring when something's been disproven to leap onto another line, and then occasional abuse. No illumination.
It is the exact same psychological process you see with immigration/race as a subject of debate
Take Asian Grooming. No one was willing to discuss it, everyone was hushing iu up, the only person willing to talk about it was the odious thug Nick Griffin, and he even got arrested for it. So instead of throwing light on a difficult topic it became even more marginalised and cranky: "that's the kind of thing the BNP say", "You sound like Nick Griffin"
And thus a huge, real-life scandal lay buried for another decade
This happens all across the internet, it ain't just "rightwing" issues that get censored and silenced. A sad evolution
Jesus effing Christ. Look at yourself. I'm done with debating the zoonazis for the day
Off to the gym. Enjoy your happy happy fuckwit-world
or
Oh no!
Of course, even conpiracist anti-vaxxers will occasionally have a point.
Though even just in general some non-loonies raised the possibility too, but it seemed to be shot down with remarkable alacrity.
I’m not convinced restoring direct political/democratic control/accountability is a particularly good solution, though.
All the old problems come back.
I wonder how Major and Brown see the problem/solution, now…
The fact that there has been a bad result does not in any way mean going back to a system that frequently led to terrible results historically is wise.
(Actually I reckon it'll be pretty comfortable majority if they get 30-40 back)
As cudgel for beating Chinese govt, Dr. Fauci, WHO, monkey-mongers, libtards, etc., etc., about the head & shoulders.
Some of which being justifiable IF actually true.
As is, for example (citing but one) condemnation of Putin's Russian mobocracy for poisoning emigre opponents on British soil. About 99.46% confirmed, or thereabouts?
Which ain't the case - at least not yet - for COVID lab-leak theories and allegations.
"A striking still-life fresco resembling a pizza has been found among the ruins of ancient Pompeii... and includes one item that looks suspiciously like a pineapple."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/27/pompeii-fresco-find-possibly-depicts-2000-year-old-form-of-pizza
Specially for @TSE - Pompeiian pizza. Though he might feel they deserved what they got for putting pineapple on it.
They see no proof of intelligent life on Earth.
See how concepts work in the real world? :-)
PS No references to "science" please in any definition.
By pretending so called "asset" costs going up is not inflation the Bank has been able to pretend that inflation hasn't existed.
https://pickyeaterblog.com/nutella-pizza/
Banana is a fantastic flavour for pizzas. Especially in combination with bacon. 🥓🍌😋
(Joke.)
Conspiracism is a particular narrative form of scapegoating that frames demonized enemies as part of a vast insidious plot against the common good, while it valorizes the scapegoater as a hero for sounding the alarm
Conspiracies clearly can happen, many are discovered and no doubt some are not. I would frame someone engaged in conspiracism or a conspiracy theorist in a derogatory fashion where they indulge in intellectually lazy, often absurd claims, on the flimisiest of pretexts and extrapolating wildly from minor details, whilst engaging in whataboutery and cherry picking to ignore anything that does not fit their narrative, usually one of elites being behind everything in an implausibly effective way, often for no clear motiviation.
That is, when it has very little to go on yet that is expanded out into something very grand and specific, and it is stuck to religiously even when evidence goes against it, and especially if it makes no logical sense, then there's a decent change it is more about the person promoting themself rather than caring about the issue.
Like pornography and art it may be hard to define the precise line, but it is a fallacy of modern online debate that because something is hard to precisely define it does not therefore exist (see arguments about wokeness), and the fact is some conspiracies exist. But it is still fair to label some people and some ideas as those of conspiracy theorists, and to mean it in the sense of a particular trend of absurdity.
On those kinds of numbers there'd be a lot of surprising seats falling.
No marks though for rhetorically conflating immigration and race into one subject.
Why am I reacting this way? You're going through the lableak hypothesis because it's dramatic. Because lots of people died, and you think blaming the Chinese is cool.
RFK Jr is involved with that website, and if you cared one jot for people, then he would be one person you would run a mile from. You would spit in his face. You would throw rotten tomatoes at him in the stocks. RFK Jr was one of the key people spreading MMR disinformation, hence harming efforts to stop the spread of those diseases, and harming vaccination as a whole.
*If* you had a conscience, you would eat pizzas with pineapple for the next week to make amends.
But you don't have a conscience.
In his view the reality is that the current Western approach to Ukraine is doomed for failure, as the Ukrainians will run out of soldiers sooner than Russians. In his view, the opinions that Ukraine can win a war against Russia is based on a misunderstanding of the situation. “It is impossible”, claimed Viktor Orbán.
The Hungarian Prime Minister stressed the importance of peace talks because he feared that Ukraine will continue to lose a huge amount of wealth and many lives, while suffering unimaginable destruction. Peace at this moment means ceasefire, he explained.
As to voices calling for the liberation of all lost Ukrainian territories, the politician replied by saying that what really matters is what the Americans’ intentions are, because Ukraine is no longer a sovereign country: they do not have money nor weapons. They can only fight because we in the West support them. There will only be peace if and when the Americans decide so.
He also maintained that there should have been peace negotiations from the very beginning. To prevent this war from becoming global, it must be isolated, and a shift must be made from the military solution back to the politicians and diplomats, because this war should not have happened.
When asked whether Vladimir Putin is a war criminal he replied by saying – “No. Not for me.” We are in a war, and we can talk about war crimes after the war.
https://hungarytoday.hu/one-cannot-negotiate-peace-while-calling-the-other-party-a-war-criminal-says-viktor-orban/
He'd fit in very well at a Peace and Justice rally, or a Saturday morning troll - all about how he just wants peace, but conveniently supports policies which would only give peace on terms favourable to Russia, and it's all really the americans fault, and it could have been stopped at the start but it's not Russia's fault that somehow it did.
As it has not amused you, I shall cancel my booking in this year's Edinburgh Fringe where I address the use of overexaggeration and fictional examples in comedy, which involves many graphs and a flotilla of drones flying over Arthur's Seat before the emergence of a prehistoric dragon from the secret chamber beneath.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7gRi2dn74s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMl6HnhFFIA
The merest glance along the supermarket freezer aisle will reveal an amazing innovation –– the pure fillet of cod fish finger! Mindblowing, I know...
https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/sainsburys-chunky-cod-fish-fingers--taste-the-difference-x8-480g
(P.S. They have been available for decades)
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/food-and-drink/what-s-really-in-frozen-fish-fingers-1.3696145#:~:text=So what else is in,has some omega-3 too.
Fish fingers are rarely more than 65% fish despite what they claim and like burgers a lot will contain parts of a fish you wouldn't eat given a choice.
You want to eat the crap go right ahead
The “tell” is the vegan venison.
Now, I'm pretty LibDemsceptic, but even I think they're going to make gains. Simply, if the LD vote is largely flat on 2019, while the Conservative vote is down (say) five percentage points, they'll win a couple.
I'd say Cheltenham, Winchester, and Guilford all look highly vulnerable to them, and all have seen the LDs surge at the local level.
"Fish fingers are still a good way to get the wary to eat fish. After Birds Eye developed fish fingers, it created the tagline “no bones, no waste, no smell, no fuss” and that still holds. So what else is in there? Nothing too odd, it seems."
1) cut cod or haddock into finger sized pieces.
2) wisk a whole egg or 2 - put the fish in bowl and make sure they are well coated.
3) roll in some good, coarse, breadcrumbs. Set the rolled pieces out on a board, while you…
4) heat frying pan with a good layer of vegetable oil at the bottom - a mm or 2, not a pond
5) when it is good and hot, start frying.
6) turn after a couple of minutes. BBQ tongs are awesome for this.