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The July 20th by-elections – Could the Tories lose all three? – politicalbetting.com
The July 20th by-elections – Could the Tories lose all three? – politicalbetting.com
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The July 20th by-elections – Could the Tories lose all three? – politicalbetting.com
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Oh, and first !!!!
Leon may have disliked the Like button but I think everyone hates it disappearing and replacement with some random WFH option - that's only useful for responding to posts by Leon or HYUFD.
It would be some achievement for Starmer to take the seat.
All these to happen before August, but then I also would be worried about the impact on my holiday..
He had his day, but looks like the chef is cooked
Uxbridge is gone but the demographics (Hindu population) will probably mean the Tory vote holds up a bit better than the national polling.
Edit: Actually on current polling via UNS I make Selby a narrow hold (Con +11.4 -> -20) implying a general 15.7% swing which isn't enough) but Baxter has it in the red column for the next GE currently.
@Tony_Diver
There is a now a dispute going on between CCHQ and Downing Street over Dan Korski.
Party says he was a gvt employee at the time so it's a matter for the Cabinet Office, but No10 says he's a Tory candidate so it's their problem.
This will have to be sorted out quite soon.
Selby could go either way, narrow Tory hold or narrow Labour gain
He was a government employee at the time so Cabinet Office are responsible.
And he's a Tory candidate, so he's the Tories problem to deal with.
It's not either-or.
I think purely on numbers, I'd bet the Tories will keep Selby and Ainsty. My gut is telling me they won't, but will keep Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
The other question for me is - how will the Tory party, and Sunak, react to whatever loses? And how will Johnson world spin Ux & SR result; if it gets lost they can spin it as "see, Johnson is in a unique position to win due to personal popularity" and if it is held they can go "see, Johnson was well liked locally and that good will helped the Cons despite national trends".
The Lib Dems will take Somerton and Frome in spite of, what would appear to be, an awful choice of candidate.
I suspect that there won't be one and Labour / Lib Dems will split the vote whilst between them getting 5-8,000 more than the Tory candidate.
The issue was whether unrealistic cherries were being sought, and given the politics at the time that'd be yes.
We’ve already had blue wall by-election losses so that’s already proven. Uxbridge is Brexity London-margins which are due a test as the last one was Bexley and a comfortable Tory hold. S&F is proper west country / farming land last tested in N Shropshire. S&A is sort of but not quite red wall.
1. Are all three by elections definitely taking place on the same day? (I think I have missed the announcements)
2. Are any of the bookies offering any tasty combination bets? What odds could I get for the Tories to lose all three?
In the past Scotland provided a lot of managerial potential. This didn't begin with Ferguson, before Fergie even made his name Liverpool had Dalglish and Souness.
Of course Scotland provided a portion of non English managerial talent in the past. The reason is obvious why if you follow football.
And of course Spain does now, when Spanish football is consistently either the best in Europe or second best only to English football. The reason is also obvious why if you follow football.
There is no foul play or bad motives afoot here.
It seems to me the cherries the UK wanted, the UK pretty much has now.
It was May's weakness that allowed her to get boxed in, she should have resigned after the election in 2017, since she went the UK has consistently ratcheted what it wants. Which is a refreshing change from pre-2016 and shows what a good idea Brexit was.
In theory it's currently a safe Tory seat almost like Rishi's Richmondshire one...
I think it's pretty obvious the EU were in part in punishment mode, and people denied that by claiming cherry picking was not permitted. But our own chaos and confusion meant we were in no position to realistically get lots of what we might ask for. Passage of time has allowed it.
Again, Spain has dominated the elite of European football all century long, Spain has never left the top-2 in UEFA Coefficient and was first for almost all of the previous decade. The only time Spain has ever not been topping the UEFA Coefficient is when England has.
So given Spanish clubs are at the top of European football, and given English clubs want to hire the best, why would they not hire from Spain? Other than England, Spain is the most logical and sensible place to look for relevant experience.
In prior decades before continental European football came to be so intermeshed with English football, it was Scotland.
If you want to use the fact English clubs have hired from Spain to show evidence of people being hired because of characteristics, you need a reason why English clubs would not have hired from Spain if it were not for those characteristics. Do you have one?
Drop Shadsy a line at Smarkets. He's the most enterprising politics betting operator around these days.
*Robert, sort this nonsense out please.
The more I am seeing of Labour's economic policies the more concerned I am getting. We seem to be in danger of moving from Alice in Wonderland to somewhere a lot less pleasant.
After Guardiolas success it has risen to over 25%.
It is the image of Guardiola not the quality of Spanish football that is driving the recruitment.
And my gut speaks like Jon Stewart here: https://youtu.be/sSfejgwbDQ8?t=172
"Oh my God, there’s been an outbreak of chocolatey goodness near Hershey, Pennsylvania. What do you think happened? Oh I don’t know, maybe a steam shovel mated with a cocoa bean? Or it’s the f---ing chocolate factory! Maybe that’s it."
One poster airs his dislike of our beloved Like button and . . . poof! it's no more.
Just like that fine bottle of claret you were saving for a very special occasion . . . until Leon stopped by to borrow a flint chisel or a stomach pump . . . spotted your prized plonk . . . and chugged it on the spot . . .
WHAT is the source of LEON's malign power over OGH, TSE, RCS?????????
That sounds like it's a joke but it's not - given I mainly look at politics and history stuff I'm not sure how the algorithm went in this direction.
If you think its just Guardiola and not the success of Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Barcelona etc driving recruitment then you've not been following European football at all.
2013 the Champions League final was all-Spanish. Spanish clubs then won the competition every year for the next five seasons.
Though I suppose that applies to anyone who wins anything these days.
Somerton - LD will be very disappointed if they don't win this one
Selby - CON should hold on
Uxbridge - could be a lot closer than indicated per the national polls. ULEZ very unpopular
I fear in order to satisfy our most notorious senior poster WTF is here to stay.
National polling swing at the time was 5.6% and Labour achieved 10.3% in the by-election.
The last registered Conservative poll.lead was a Redfield &Wilton just 4 days after that by-election.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/66030110
Let them
eat cakedrink Coke Cola.In other words, the chocolate factory is the wet market. That’s exactly the sort of place people expected a new pandemic to appear.
The fightback is on.
https://www.varsity.co.uk/news/25810
But, but back on the earlier topic, here's another example of that earlier story, from this morning also at last coming through to more mainstream outlets, again.
https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/4067865-congress-doubles-down-on-explosive-claims-of-illegal-ufo-retrieval-programs/
"Asked June 26 about allegations of secret UFO retrieval and reverse-engineering programs, Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) made several stunning statements.
In an exclusive interview, Rubio told NewsNation Washington correspondent Joe Khalil that multiple individuals with “very high clearances and high positions within our government” “have come forward to share” “first-hand” UFO-related claims “beyond the realm of what [the Senate Intelligence Committee] has ever dealt with.”
Rubio’s comments provide context for a bipartisan provision adopted unanimously by the Senate Intelligence Committee, which would immediately halt funding for any secret government or contractor efforts to retrieve and reverse-engineer craft of “non-earth” or “exotic” origin.
This extraordinary language added to the Senate version of the Intelligence authorization bill mirrors and adds significant credibility to a whistleblower’s recent, stunning allegations that a clandestine, decades-long effort to recover, analyze and exploit objects of non-human origin without government oversight."
Do we think that the Conservative government will a) accept that this is true and b) therefore restrict profiteering (why do we need the new word "greedflation" when a good word already exists) and also c) therefore stop their fight to restrict wage rises or will they d) keep crying about the concerns of a wage inflation spiral and do nothing about corporate greed...
Do we need betting odds for this one?
I remain largely agnostic about the origin of SARS-CoV-2. Based on all the evidence available to me at this stage, none of the following scenarios: a lab-leak, a field-collection accident, or a standard zoonotic spillover can be formally ruled out.
1/
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1673060263157702656?s=20
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/66028343
ETA: per wikipedia, Selby town population 19.8k in 2021 census; S&A electorate 77.7k in 2019
Could he rise as high as Mrs Bravermann?
Gender critical beliefs are protected by law. Another victory for women and for common sense.
didlaw Partner Elizabeth McGlone was delighted to work alongside Anya Palmer Counsel of Old Square Chambers to support Denise Fahmy in her harassment claim against Arts Council England (ACE).
In a unanimous judgment of the Leeds Employment Tribunal Ms Fahmy succeeds in her case that she was subjected to harassment for her gender critical beliefs…..
Arts Council England is a publicly funded body and is responsible for awarding grants to artistic projects across the country. It is unfortunate that in this case it chose to make an award and then withdraw it for reasons that were based on bias, hostility and mis-information, namely that LGB Alliance was a transphobic organisation.
https://didlaw.com/denise-fahmy-v-arts-council-england
My powers are mighty but not that mighty
Nearly all people are not called Zebedee - probably only 1 in 250,000 at most. If someone comes up to you and says Hi, I am Zebedee, do you discount the possibility of that being true because it is a 250,000/1 shot?
In the meantime list your favourite Radiohead track.
I’m going for Creep.
Apart from today's new allegations, the article seems to deal, spcifically, with how governments or large organisations deal with whistleblowers, and information release, when others are already under investigation for malpractice related to the topic of the whistleblower's claims.
'Recently, the U.S. government denied in full five FOIA requests encompassing a broad range of UFO-related topics. In a striking departure from previous practice, the government denied the requests on the grounds that release of the information may interfere with “enforcement proceedings” and “law enforcement investigations or prosecutions.”
The application of such novel justifications for withholding government UFO information may constitute circumstantial evidence that a law enforcement entity, such as the Department of Defense Office of Inspector General, is engaged in a broad, and possibly criminal, investigation of the U.S. government’s involvement with UFOs."