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The summer by-elections: the latest betting – politicalbetting.com
The summer by-elections: the latest betting – politicalbetting.com
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The summer by-elections: the latest betting – politicalbetting.com
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Runs scored on Day One at Edgbaston in...
2005: 407
2023: 407
Fourth-innings target at Edgbaston in...
2005: 282
2023: 281
Is a heart-stopping England win written in the stars?
Somerton looks like a nailed on LD gain to me - as Stephen Bush from FT put it.
They will absolutely smash it and it won’t be close. a) it’s a by-election b) it’s a seat with a Lib Dem history c) uh, have you seen the i) the circumstances Warburton is standing down in and ii) the state of the country lately?
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1670178119360081922?cxt=HHwWhMCzwdGJ1a0uAAAA
Uxbridge looks a classic loss to opposition by-election, so that level of betting would make sense.
Rishi would take winning 1 of 4, but will hope for 2 I guess.
NEW Government whips are expecting a vote in the House of Commons on the Privileges report into whether Boris Johnson lied to MPs at 9.30pm, MPs tell me.
Somerton - probably comfortably LD by 10% +
Selby - likely CON again might be comfortable
Mid Beds - probably not happening, if it does then possibly small CON maj
Asking for around 150 Tory MPs looking to take the second most cowardly way out.
It's been very close throughout. Hasn't really swung wildly from one team to another the way close test matches can - all the way through both teams have been about par. Looking like a victory between a handful of runs or a couple of wickets.
That said, it could be entirely washed out looking at the forecast.
And my 10K PB is also over 45 minutes - though not by that much... I still harbour fantasies of breaking that particular barrier, but it is somewhat contingent on my body not starting to disintegrate again before I can manage it.
Otherwise it'll be Borisians resigning from now until Autumn 2024, lost by election after lost by election.
NEW: As MPs debate his behaviour, Boris Johnson is attending the International Democratic Union reception tonight.
Sources say while there he criticised the privileges committee as “biased and wilfully ignorant” and added that “there is always another innings”.
Amazing how the classics always work though - those who find against me are biased, therefore to be ignored. And to think they end up supproted by talentless yes men.
You guys are gonna win in 2024 (I think win pretty big, as the Scots punish the Nats). And good luck o you, the Tories had 13 years and blew it, on the whole
So: what could a Starmer government do, what WILL a Starmer government do, that will make you profoundly grateful for a Labour government at last?
I don't mean "just not being Tories" or "kissing goodbye to Jacob Rees Mogg", I mean positive things that you expect Labour to do, which will benefit the country
eg Boris Johnsin can say, of his 2019 election, he Got Brexit Done. You may loathe and despise Brexit, but with his big majority Boris finally got the will of people enacted, thereby saving our reputation for democracy - or, indeed, democracy - and a lot of people voted for him to do exactly that. And he did it
What will be the Starmerite equivalent? I am intrigued
I'll never be the 'best' long-distance walker. I'll never be the fastest runner. But I'm proud of what I've achieved in both those areas, even if those achievements mean sod-all to anyone else, and on their own may seem slightly pathetic. I've challenged myself and done well - and mostly enjoyed it.
Somerton and Frome almost certain to go LD, Selby correctly forecast to be neck and neck between Tories and Labour (I expect the Tories to scrape home). Mid Beds if Dorries steps down likely goes LD like Somerton, forecast correct there too
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Declared_major_candidates
So, what is Starmer's equivalent? What is his USP? What will he get done? Drastically repair or reform? I cannot see it as of now. but I am - genuinely - happy to be schooled. This guy, after all, is likely to be our PM for four-five years, minimum
https://twitter.com/mori_tories/status/1670872910662184964
https://www.theipsa.org.uk/freedom-of-information/2017-18/cas-80614
"Under reforms introduced in 2013[1], MPs will be eligible to receive a Loss of Office payment if they lose their seat at a general election. The amount of the Loss of Office payment will be equal to double the statutory redundancy entitlement.
MPs are only eligible for such payments if they have held office for a continuous period of at least two years, stand for re-election but are not re-elected. MPs who choose to stand down prior to an election are not entitled to any payment."
11s
Timid Rish! goes missing in action in face of Boris Johnson’s lies
https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1670883162183049217
I would have them as favourites for the euros 24
But I am thinking that wiggy doesn't perhaps yet understand why?
On some policies Kennedy is not far off Jeremy Corbyn and his anti vax policies are certainly something Piers Corbyn would approve of
If he's so bloody great he can come back from that.
But if he is that bloody great, then he's not stupid enough to have inadvertently misled parliament, so it must have been intentional.
Oh, and hopefully a referendum on EEA membership in the second term, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
The forecast is interesting. We might only get three hours play tomorrow, with the Aussies maybe in and out between showers.
That would appear to favour us in what would otherwise be a 50/50 shout IMO.
In a Facebook post, Mohammed Nazam said his participation had contradicted his "personal religious beliefs".
He was suspended by the Conservative group on Bradford Council once his comments came to light and later announced he would quit as mayor.
In a statement he said he "did not mean any harm to the LGBTQ community".
He said he intended to carry on as an Independent councillor, according to the Local Democracy Reporting Service.
In his post, on a page called Keighley Pakistanis, Mr Nazam said: "I wholeheartedly apologise for my participation in the flag-raising ceremony, as it contradicts my personal religious beliefs, as many of you are aware."
He said he had since "personally repented for this error," adding: "Looking back, I realise that I should have respectfully declined the request at the time."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-65954361
But if they go large on their council planning
powers policy, and get hundreds of thousands of homes built by local authorities, then I will be pleasantly surprised.
It's one thing which financial constraints wouldn't prevent or downsize, unlike much of their wish list, and it would be a big deal.
Just needs political will.
In all seriousness, if they can't win it with this squad, then we might as well Cancel English Football. From Saka, to Bellingham, to Kane, to Rashford, to Alexander-Arnold, to Boden, to Grealish - they really should win, or come extremely close
France are fading, a little. Spain Germany and Italy are all middling-good, Dutch could be a threat mebbes
Second string gigs from now on, mate.
Ed Miliband as Shadow Climate Secretary will also push Net Zero hard if he becomes Environment Secretary and Labour has already said it will ban further exploration for gas and oil and ban new coal mines
I expect by 2028/9 there to be almost no (average) greater prosperity under Labour. Tax and spend will remain at Tory levels at least, mostly out of necessity.
Six areas I hope will make some limited progress:
1) The level of integrity in government
2) Administrative competence
3) Moving towards either a Swiss style or EFTA relationship with the EU
4) A rational policy on migration and housing, where we stop the policies of wanting both fewer and more houses built, and fewer and more migrants.
5) Moves away from the plethora of policies which assist the super rich
6) Policies towards making the NHS non reliant on stealing staff from very poor countries, thus making a bad situation for them worse, and doing the opposite.
They will also align more to EU regulations and take us at least closer to the May Deal rather than the Boris Deal and then if they win a second term likely push to join the EEA and if they win a third term maybe even to rejoin the full EU again too
New Deal with Europe closer to EEA
Standards in public life
I think the idea is to invest in health tech in a more concerted fashion to drive up NHS productivity which as even Jeremy Hunt has noticed, is in steep decline. I expect a return to Blairite targets too, which,..actually worked.
This could have been @RishiSunak ‘s big moment - standing up for decency and personal responsibility. If he can’t do that he should make way for someone who can.
The Scottish Conservatives have called a Vote of No Confidence in Green Minister Lorna Slater.
This will be a test of MSP honesty. Because no one with eyes to see or ears to hear could believe Lorna Slater is fit for the role she holds.
Let's see who supports it.
Does show like Kate Forbes however strict Muslims have the same potential clash of culture with LGBT activists as evangelical Christians like Forbes or strict Roman Catholics
Fiscal constraints are likely to make big policy achievements hard. I'm willing to be surprised (and hope I am), but I suspect improvements might not be massive.
Technology is great - but do they have the ability to make it transformative ?
Inspiring stuff.
It's a joke, but why isn't this guy running as a Trumpist Republican? He genuinely seems like he would do well there.
As I said earlier Robert Kennedy Jnr is not a million miles from Corbyn on some policies, indeed on foreign policy (pro Putin, anti Iraq War and anti NATO) and lockdowns and vax Corbynites and Trumpites are closer to each other than the UK and US political establishment
That hasn't happened "naturally" but because a resistance was put up to what was argued to be progressive inevitability- a salutary lesson to those that think the tide of history only marches one way: it doesn't.
Policies are skimpy and formulaic in areas they are not interested in such as foreign policy and constitutional affairs. They don't say too much about health. Train 10 000 nurses (everyone says that), move to more technology and focus on primary care. But they don't flesh these last two out, so suspect they may not get a lot of priority. Maybe I'm wrong on that and they will be quite radical. Also on transport.
https://labourlist.org/2023/05/labour-manifesto-2024-election-what-policies-npf-party/
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2024/euro/winner
With the talent surging through the England squad I suggest this is VALUE (and I nearly always advise against betting ON England: the patriotic punter warps the market)
But this is real. England possess an excess of exuberant talent; can Gareth finally unlock it?
now
BREAKING: MPs vote by 354 to 7 to back the privileges committee's report which found Boris Johnson guilty of repeatedly misleading MPs over partygate.
It means he will be stripped of his ex-MP's parliamentary pass.
seven? dopey, sleazy, shifty, creepy, thicko, crooked, and duck.
That is so many that it was definitely an unofficial whip situation though, so a bit too obvious - there are sufficient numbers of open Boris critics, and defenders, to have had way more back or reject the report, so an order was given here since no way they all independently decided that was the best move.
Personally I find it hard to have much sympathy for believers in the various omnipotent sky beings in any situation such is that, but then I'm one of the gays and they've been shitting on us for thousands of years - and continue to do so everywhere on Earth where they still enjoy real power.
At the end of the day, if people feel that they have to surrender public office because the alternative is to compromise on their religious convictions, then so be it. That's infinitely preferable to holders of public office having the ability to inflict those beliefs on everyone else.
Abstentions are exactly that and the 7 against are dinosaurs