Categories
LAB increasing its lead in the “Red Wall” – politicalbetting.com
LAB increasing its lead in the “Red Wall” – politicalbetting.com
R&W introduced this polling series 15 months ago and in many ways it could provide a better guide to the general election outcome than standard voting polls. This covers 40 seats 39 of them which were taken by the Tories at the last general election in what has become known as the red wall. The other seat Hartlepool was taken by the Tories in the byelection two years ago.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
These "don't knowers" are always an issue for prognostication, but it could easily just be that Tory voters are saying "don't know" and they'll really just abstain. Tory abstention is necessary for Labour wins, so I don't think we should find this surprising. I wonder if polls should start asking and / or prompting for "abstain" instead of just asking "how likely are you to vote".
Not sure what this means though...
As can be seen at the general election the Tories had a 9% lead over LAB in these seats. This has now been reversed to a 22% Conservative lead which represents a swing of more than 15%.
While Labour leads in both, their lead is a massive 22% in the redwall now but just 4% in the bluewall.
In the redwall Starmer leads as preferred PM by a clear 40% to just 31% for Sunak.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wall-voting-intention-11-june-2023/
In the bluewall however Sunak still leads as preferred PM on 39% to 35% for Starmer
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/
Labour winning in the home counties. Ill-bred Labour councillors astride the leafy meadows of Surrey. Poorly spoken activists harassing the middle aged women of Aylesbury. What have you lost HYUFD? You have Redcar but a man who's school had no motto is going to take your home.
·
3m
Told Boris conveyed a message to Downing Street on Saturday that Eton always beats Winchester.
Why did Rishi let the resignation list go out before the final report?
Not very clever.
Do have to laugh. This is a thread about the red wall where Labour's lead is now 22% and still rising. Sunak seems to be aiming for 30%.
In the local elections Labour may have regained Stoke and Medway and Mansfield and Erewash but Labour failed to gain a single council in Surrey or Bucks or Essex or Oxfordshire, the gains there were rather by LDs and Independents
Tells Sunak to grow up.
"NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦
@NOELreports
Ex-commander of the 🇷🇺72nd brigade, Roman Venevitin, said that the coordinates of Delimkhanov and other Kadyrovites who were with him were leaked to the Ukrainian SBU by Wagner PMC fighters. Also, according to him, Delimkhanov was seriously wounded, and the losses among other Kadyrovites were significant."
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1668936832380223489
The slide of Russia towards civil war is perhaps beginning. While that will doubtless be terrible in many ways, it should make it easier for Ukraine to liberate its territory.
He actually said that. 😂
What isn’t stupid at all is the Psephological theory of voters giving pollsters the Dutch Salute. It goes like this.
Best option for Tories - Tories % up with Lab % down, Lab lead shrinking
Next best option for Tories - Tories % not up, Lab % not down, lead remains 12%
Most worst option for Tories - Tory % static, Lab % down, Lab lead shrinking, Lib Dem’s up (purest Dutch Salute)
https://twitter.com/CricketBusiness/status/1668851181077012480?s=20
The idea of putting a ban on new licences in the North Sea, but not banning imports from abroad, will be something that seriously pleases Russia - and Saudi Arabia and other countries - but does absolutely nothing to help either Britain or the environment or climate change.
It is a completely foolish policy.
@nickmacpherson2
·
15h
But I can't remember an election when 18 months out interest rates were still rising steeply. It's still possible the government may get lucky: underlying inflation may come down quicker than expected. But I wouldn't bet on that. 5/6
I see Sevanta PB's gold standard pollster back up to 17%. Biggest = lead since early Feb
LOL.
Tory civil war.
Sunak doesn't get it and will never get my vote.
It will be adjacent to the Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant America, which is currently under construction
https://insideevs.com/news/671266/hyundai-lges-30gwh-battery-jv-georgia/
...LG Energy Solution noted that the new JV with Hyundai is actually its seventh battery plant project in the US (currently operating or being constructed). The total output of those plants is roughly 250-300 GWh annually...
GM And Samsung SDI's Battery JV To Be Located In Indiana
Construction of the 30+ GWh plant will start next year.
https://insideevs.com/news/671839/gm-samsung-sdi-battery-jv-indiana/
An awful lot of production is scheduled to start coming on stream in 2026.
In fact Blue Wall may even be a new term invented by the Lib Dem’s to explain this historic level of vulnerability.
Perhaps views on Sunak polling should be read in conjunction with views on party staying in power when deciding where vote might go - leader not hated is good, I concede, but party utterly hated and everyone wanting it out of government might well trump leader not hated when it comes to a few votes?
On Topic. Wall polling tends to go sharply up and down with each sample, what Tories lost in this sample they may easily get back and some, with next sample. They are charts crying out for more flat direction of travel lines drawn through them.
Sunak doesn't. He's not fit to be in Downing Street.
Nadine Dorries is going to castrate Philip Davies.
But to go back to the Russia snibe, the Tories have many millions of Russian money in their coffers, stopped asset freezes of their Russian patrons at the start of the Ukraine war, have appointed them to the Lords, and Johnson even had that Trumpian trip to see the KGB complete with top secret paperwork.
So for the Tories to accuse anyone of being in hoc to Russia is hypocracy of the highest order.
This is close to having a scrap over the cones hotline. Pitiful.
Still more do that No10 is still trying to decide what to do.
If Starmer becomes PM and as he suggests he will do goes beyond building more houses and high rise on brownbelt land to allowing much more development in the greenbelt he will face huge opposition, especially in the South and outer London surbubs (even if he does win Bart's vote)
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1658839136315273216
Boris did get the importance of this, though he was a coward after the by-election loss the Lib Dems and a rebellion by Theresa May and others.
Michael Gove has had good things to say in the past, but is the current relevant Secretary of State and has made things much worse not better.
Keir Starmer has said some good things recently, but he's an opportunist and has as much integrity as Boris so it will be interesting to see if he actually comes up with credible policies on this matter or whether he tacks to win the NIMBY vote too.
As much as I dislike Labour I'm starting to think the only way this issue might end up getting tackled is if there's a 1997-style Labour landslide that allows the Government to ignore the NIMBY squeals and pass the legislation the country desperately requires, putting the interests of the country ahead of NIMBY local election concerns.
An 80 seat Tory majority should have been allowed the Tories to tackle this issue themselves, but they've ran away from it instead, for shame.
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 32 (-1); wrong 56 (+1). % wrong matches previous record high. Fwork 6-7.6 (ch since 30-31.5) bit.ly/46ghmPJ
Lunch is more important it seems...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_June_2023_Greek_legislative_election
Its a silly and nannying policy at the best of times but during a cost of living crisis and rampant food inflation is it really sensible to introduce a policy banning BOGOF or similar offers on food?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/14/nottingham-attack-latest-van-stabbing-arrest-victims-live/ (no paywall)
@JohnRentoul
·
16m
Another notable Q earlier from Theresa Villiers: huge Tory cheer for an attack on Sadiq Khan's Ulez scheme – they really think its unpopularity might swing the Uxbridge by-election
No siree...
So suspect Three is hear until 2027ish.
Not that they want those options for themselves. Oh no, there's no reason they shouldn't have a detached home with a garden but other people wanting a semi-detached with a garden is utterly unreasonable because "my view" might be impaired.
We really want to, but given the mess the Tories have left us and the state of the world right now….
Following the verdict that found Trump liable for defamation, the former president called Carroll a “whack job.”https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/13/trump-defamation-case-e-jean-carroll-00101825
...A trial has been delayed for the initial lawsuit, as courts weigh whether Trump can be sued in his personal capacity over comments he made while president. On Tuesday, Judge Lewis Kaplan called on the Justice Department to make that determination by July 13.
“We look forward to moving ahead expeditiously on E. Jean Carroll’s remaining claims,” Robbie Kaplan, an attorney for Carroll, told POLITICO.
It’s another legal blow from Trump — whose lawyers sought to block the amendment — that comes the same day the former president was arraigned in a Florida court on 37 federal felony charges related to his handling of classified documents...
Thatcher rightly saw the importance of people having their own home and she deservedly increased her majority in 1983 and won multiple landslide elections.
If Starmer actually does 'get it' and does take the NIMBYs on and defeat them, and is the first PM since Thatcher to take major steps to ensuring everyone has the opportunity to have a home of their own from their own wages they work for, then he would thoroughly deserve a landslide victory afterwards.
I'm not holding my breath though.
New: Tory candidate for Selby has been accused of backing "dangerous" fracking after he said shale gas was "plentiful" and that he supported exploration
Research suggests two thirds of Selby is covered by oil and gas licences
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/tory-candidate-for-selby-accused-of-backing-dangerous-fracking-4181625
Sunak might not be fit to be in Downing St but after your fawning over Johnson for three years and a half years I think he'd be advised to get a second opinion.
The UK birthrate is only 1.6 now, well below replacement level
To summarise for his benefit, countries self-sufficient in energy (France, USA, sandpit) now pay a lot less than those not self-sufficient in energy, thanks to the global energy markets being turned up-side down by war and pandemic in recent times.
Heckuva job.
Brighton and Hove has been “pushed closer to financial disaster” after Green councillors overspent the council’s budget by more than £3 million last year, figures show.
Statistics discovered by the new Labour council in Brighton and Hove show that the previous Green-led administration had burst the annual budget for the first time “in many years”.
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/23584546.brighton-green-councillors-overspent-council-budget-3-million/
The UK will quite likely exceed a population of 70 million within a couple of years. 80 million by 2050 looks entirely plausible too.
WHERE ARE WE ALL GOING TO LIVE AND WORK IF WE DON'T BUILD ANYTHING?
It is probably the right thing to do but the 700,000 drivers who will have to pay or buy replacement cars are going to be far, far more likely to vote based on this issue than the several million who will gain marginally in air quality and less severe increases in fares/taxes elsewhere.
Cutting immigration wouldn't mean we'd need fewer houses, it'd mean we'd still having a housing shortage and we'd continue to need even more houses per annum but at a lower rate.
Though you have failed to understand maths or numbers as per usual.
Most recent data is from 2021.
2021 Live Births: 694,685
2021 Deaths: 666,659
694,65 - 666,659 = Natural population growth of 28,026
Birth rate has been below 'replacement level' in theory since 1973. In the past 50 years birth rate has exceeded death rate every single year except 2020 at the height of the pandemic and 1976, despite having a below replacement level birth rate that entire time.