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Oh my God – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,126
edited June 2023 in General
Oh my God – politicalbetting.com

Nicola Sturgeon in custody after being arrested in connection with SNP investigation, police say https://t.co/v2JNHreQU0

Read the full story here

«1345678

Comments

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    LOL
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,804

    Some of these Tories batting for Boris are just fucking bonkers. Cant they not read the runes?

    I'm not surprised many would do so, since it's tied up with party factions, dislike of being held accountable by a standards regime, misplaced association with Brexit (since everything must be about that). What puzzles me is why ones liek Rees-Mogg seem so personally loyal to Boris. It's far beyond backing his position and his bizarre rantings, they are still trying to portray a man who is cutting and running as a future leader.

    I mean, let's ignore everything else we know about Boris and the Tory party for a moment. The Rees-Moggian position is that the party is in a dreadful mess right now, and going in the wrong direction, right? They need someone to help them win and to put them in the right direction.

    Why would you select a person who is quitting Parliament, unnecessarily to boot, as being the person who you want as leader? Wouldn't you want someone strong enough to stand and fight?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    Goddammit... I commented on the other thread which got removed.

    Holy Cow... This is nuclear!
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    Blimey. What a weekend of politics
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,775
    Faaaaarrrrk.

    Given the absolute shitstorm going on in both the SNP and Conservatives, does this make a Labour majority way more likely now?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,804
    edited June 2023

    Kle4 predicted this.

    I'm batting 1 in a thousand, so don't take any future predictions as gospel.

    As with any arrest things might go nowhere, but who says the authorities on both sides of the Atlantic have no sense of drama?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,422
    edited June 2023
    YELLOW WARNING FOR THUNDER IN AYRSHIRE - Met Office, confused by @malcolmg
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited June 2023
    Dramatic, however we must remember just because Sturgeon has been arrested doesn't mean she will be charged or then convicted. Not a great weekend for the SNP now either not just the Conservatives
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    FPT on the subject of UFOs etc. (Have they abducted Sturgeon?)

    What counts is evidence which can be expertly examined and re-examined and reported on according to peer reviewed science standards. Adjectives and hearsay don't count. That which is merely unexplained visual phenomena doesn't count either. We can't explain lots of things - consciousness, the origin of the universe, the reason why the law of gravity is how it is and not different, why we see yellow as yellow and not green, how life began and so on - but we don't attribute it to aliens.

    As and when there is a real story it isn't going to be confined to websites no-one has heard of. There is a fortune out there for real scientists and accurate journalists, and they will get it if they can.

    The rest is noise.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic, however we must remember just because Sturgeon has been arrested doesn't mean she will be charged. Not a great weekend for the SNP now either not just the Conservatives

    so Tory, Labour and SNP leaders all investigated by police.

    But only two face further action…
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    So…


  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    Afternoon all :)

    Presumably this was digested before the Johnson "business" started:

    https://options2040.co.uk/the-options-ahead-what-people-in-election-battlegrounds-think/
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    BBC:

    Russia appears to have moved to take direct control of Wagner, after months of infighting between defence officials and the private military group.

    Deputy Defence Minister Nikolai Pankov said on Saturday "volunteer formations" will be asked to sign contracts directly with the ministry of defence.

    The vaguely worded statement is widely believed to target the group.

    But in a furious statement on Sunday, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said his forces would boycott the contracts.e
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,775
    Just a quick check: have any pets of the LibDems been shot by unknown people? It appears God is using an infinite improbability drive this week
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,804
    edited June 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic, however we must remember just because Sturgeon has been arrested doesn't mean she will be charged. Not a great weekend for the SNP now either not just the Conservatives

    Financial misdeeds are complicated, hard to prove, and probably very rarely convicted. My general assumption is these sorts of things go nowhere, and down the line there'll be the sight of some gurning politico talking about being vindicated.

    But at the very least where illegality is not discovered a lot of poor behaviour can be, which can be devasting in its own right. That's something Boris and his cohorts also always forget, by acting as though criminal sanction is the only thing that matters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,700
    YES?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic, however we must remember just because Sturgeon has been arrested doesn't mean she will be charged. Not a great weekend for the SNP now either not just the Conservatives

    And in Scotland sub judice comes in after arrest and before charges, if any.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,295

    Goddammit... I commented on the other thread which got removed.

    Holy Cow... This is nuclear!

    Sorry about that, I published the new thread, ten seconds later I got the alert about Sturgeon so pulled that other thread.
  • HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.

    Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.

    I see your point, but actually deflation is generally seen as an economically even worse problem than inflation as people defer spending if prices are expected to fall.

    In general, price stability not dropping prices is the appropriate macroeconomic aim.
    This is a point I have made about falling house prices and its impact on housebuilding. People like the idea that falling house prices and an increase in housebuilding could go together, but the reality is that when house prices are falling people are less likely to borrow large sums of money to buy premium new build houses, so there would be less demand for this type of housing, so the most probable outcome is that housebuilding also falls.
    I think you've got it backwards.

    We don't want a fall in prices to lead to an increase in construction.

    We want an increase in construction to lead to a fall in prices.

    Increased competition absolutely can lead to prices stabilising or falling. And if competition increases, then prices stabilise or fall, then housebuilding falls back, then it will be because the shortage of houses in the system has resolved. Although unless population growth stops entirely, there will always be a need for construction.
    There was no let up in the production of various goods that have fallen in price, massively, over the decades.

    Half the cost of building work is directly wages. That is half is bricks and roof tiles, half labour. Approximately. But the material themselves have labour inputs. And the materials for the materials.

    Some guesses put the ultimate labour portion of a house at 70-80%.

    Labour cost is a direct function, these days, of housing costs. The biggest cost for workers is their own housing!

    So when house prices actually fall, for a period, labour costs will begin to trend down (assuming a competitive labour market). This in turn will make it cheaper to build houses.

    In addition, the U.K. building industry is low productivity, compared to many other countries. Investment in non-exotic machinery - mini cranes and small diggers, say - could halve the work force on a house.
    Its worth noting that half the building work cost of houses may be labour but that's not half the cost of the house.

    An incredibly significant portion of the cost of housing is the cost of land, and almost all of the cost of land is planning permission.

    An acre of farmland can cost £12-25k while an acre of land with planning permission for a house can be worth hundreds of thousands.

    Eliminate that discrepancy and the cost of housing would collapse, without affecting labour costs. And as you say, if its cheaper to house people, then everything including labour becomes cheaper.
    That is, ostensibly, Starmer’s headline policy.
    Whether he can deliver will be interesting to watch.
    If he comes up with serious policies on this issue, I will hold my nose and vote Labour at the next election.
    Careful. HYUFD might say you’re not a real Tory.
    LOL.

    One thing HYUFD is right about is that. I'm certainly a liberal who normally votes Tory. If I vote Labour at the next election it will only be the second time in my life, after voting Labour in 2001 in my first election.

    The Tories should be the party of aspiration for people to have their own home.

    If Starmer can get the importance of that but Sunak can't, what does it say about the state of today's Tory party?
    I was going to offer Land Value Taxation as a policy here (good old Liberal idea).

    The problem Sunak has is he has to balance the requirement of his core vote to maintain the status quo - his core of middle age and elderly northern and midlands home owners rather like the value of their asset continuing to rise which they can pass on (without IHT hopefully) to the children and grandchildren to provide the deposit for the next generation of home owners).

    On the other side, he knows the longer term interests of the country and his Party are served by creating a new generation of home owners but he can't make houses affordable without causing existing values to drop which alienates his core.

    That's not an easy circle to square.
    It's impossible, which is why the Conservative Party will always cave to the interests of the already wealthy in the end. It's why the rumours of the abolition of IHT and revival of Help to Buy continue to swirl, and it also explains why they've already caved to their Southern Nimbies by junking housing targets for local authorities.

    Today's Tories will always default to the elderly homeowner interest, trusting that they can return to power if they bring enough of them on side. What happens when the housing shortage means there aren't enough elderly homeowners left to outvote pissed-off renters is a problem for tomorrow's Tories to solve.
    By then their children will have inherited of course (and even today by 39 most own property with a mortgage)
    There aren't enough houses, therefore those that exist are too expensive. Inheritances will eventually bail some people out, but the numbers staggering under crippling rents into middle age will continue to increase. Eventually this will also undermine your party's support with the grey vote, as more of them end up having to work until they drop down dead to service rents.

    No use bellyaching about the concreting of the countryside I'm afraid. If the Conservatives won't do it, eventually things will get so bad that voters will turn to somebody else who will.
    There are if we cut immigration.

    Most will have inherited by 60-65, so certainly wouldn't need to work beyond normal retirement age (having pensions already saved for too).

    Voters across the South are already voting for NIMBY LDs and Greens and Independents because even the modest housebuilding proposed by former Tory controlled councils was too much. If Starmer tried to concrete all over the greenbelt there would be a revolution in the South
    Cutting immigration will no more resolve the housing shortage than cutting inflation will see prices fall back down.

    Even if net immigration dropped to zero today our pre-existing shortage of houses will still exist. Just as if inflation dropped to zero today, then prices would remain higher than they were in the past.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Poor old Malc; missing all this. I hope he’s enjoying himself otherwise he’ll be spitting turnips!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,295
    Tonight's date night for me.

    So.....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    The conjunction of the words “Nicola Sturgeon” and “in custody” are giving me an almost sexual thrill

    And I swear I can hear the sound of Alex Salmond laughing from over here in Washington DC

    Superb
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    edited June 2023
    My impression was that she'd already been placed under arrest, discreetly, a while back. Guess not.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,150
    Blimey! 😂
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,804

    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.

    Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.

    I see your point, but actually deflation is generally seen as an economically even worse problem than inflation as people defer spending if prices are expected to fall.

    In general, price stability not dropping prices is the appropriate macroeconomic aim.
    This is a point I have made about falling house prices and its impact on housebuilding. People like the idea that falling house prices and an increase in housebuilding could go together, but the reality is that when house prices are falling people are less likely to borrow large sums of money to buy premium new build houses, so there would be less demand for this type of housing, so the most probable outcome is that housebuilding also falls.
    I think you've got it backwards.

    We don't want a fall in prices to lead to an increase in construction.

    We want an increase in construction to lead to a fall in prices.

    Increased competition absolutely can lead to prices stabilising or falling. And if competition increases, then prices stabilise or fall, then housebuilding falls back, then it will be because the shortage of houses in the system has resolved. Although unless population growth stops entirely, there will always be a need for construction.
    There was no let up in the production of various goods that have fallen in price, massively, over the decades.

    Half the cost of building work is directly wages. That is half is bricks and roof tiles, half labour. Approximately. But the material themselves have labour inputs. And the materials for the materials.

    Some guesses put the ultimate labour portion of a house at 70-80%.

    Labour cost is a direct function, these days, of housing costs. The biggest cost for workers is their own housing!

    So when house prices actually fall, for a period, labour costs will begin to trend down (assuming a competitive labour market). This in turn will make it cheaper to build houses.

    In addition, the U.K. building industry is low productivity, compared to many other countries. Investment in non-exotic machinery - mini cranes and small diggers, say - could halve the work force on a house.
    Its worth noting that half the building work cost of houses may be labour but that's not half the cost of the house.

    An incredibly significant portion of the cost of housing is the cost of land, and almost all of the cost of land is planning permission.

    An acre of farmland can cost £12-25k while an acre of land with planning permission for a house can be worth hundreds of thousands.

    Eliminate that discrepancy and the cost of housing would collapse, without affecting labour costs. And as you say, if its cheaper to house people, then everything including labour becomes cheaper.
    That is, ostensibly, Starmer’s headline policy.
    Whether he can deliver will be interesting to watch.
    If he comes up with serious policies on this issue, I will hold my nose and vote Labour at the next election.
    Careful. HYUFD might say you’re not a real Tory.
    LOL.

    One thing HYUFD is right about is that. I'm certainly a liberal who normally votes Tory. If I vote Labour at the next election it will only be the second time in my life, after voting Labour in 2001 in my first election.

    The Tories should be the party of aspiration for people to have their own home.

    If Starmer can get the importance of that but Sunak can't, what does it say about the state of today's Tory party?
    You are yes not a Tory and not a conservative, you are a libertarian who sometimes votes Conservative, as you have since 2005 but sometimes votes Labour as you did for Blair and likely will do for Starmer.

    The Tories should be and are the party of aspiration but they also should be the party of conservatism and conservation of our beautiful countryside which you and Starmer want to concrete all over
    Nobody wants to concrete all over the countryside.

    Concreting over maybe an additional 1% of it is a different matter.

    If we concreted over only the farmland in this country [not parks or wildlife etc] at the same density as housing in this country is, we'd have enough houses for more than one billion people.

    We do not and will not have one billion people in this country. There is a need for some extra houses, but it'll be a tiny fraction of countryside not "all" of it.
    But if you relax even 1% that means 100% is under threat right? I mean, that's just logic - if you're an insane NIMBY (ie 95% of politicians).
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    viewcode said:

    Just a quick check: have any pets of the LibDems been shot by unknown people? It appears God is using an infinite improbability drive this week

    Still time this w/e for the deposition of Putin and Trump to withdraw from the race.

  • DavidL said:

    "A reminder Mike Smithson is on holiday until tomorrow."

    Well, if it was Nicola arrested or a nuclear attack I suppose we got off quite lightly.

    I'd wait until we see how @Theuniondivvie responds before saying that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    So she actually resigned to spend more time with her cell mates. From what I hear of women’s prisons, she might enjoy her time
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Tory civil war rumbles into another week…

    SNP: hold my Tennents.


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1667889595537666054?s=20
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,295
    kle4 said:

    Kle4 predicted this.

    I'm batting 1 in a thousand, so don't take any future predictions as gospel.

    As with any arrest things might go nowhere, but who says the authorities on both sides of the Atlantic have no sense of drama?
    I have a friend who a Scottish Unionist, he said he's loving this because the SNP are so bloody pious, that they aren't like Unionists/Westminister.

    So even if they aren't charged, he can use this to lord it over them.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Keir Starmer:


  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    At least Sturgeon got to pass her driving theory test.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,422
    Arrested on a Sunday? Surely there is an unspoken rule against that (unless it is violent or something).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,804
    I assume there will be a certain level of this online, but I can assure them that people will be more than capable of remembering Boris is awful next week.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    DavidL said:

    "A reminder Mike Smithson is on holiday until tomorrow."

    Well, if it was Nicola arrested or a nuclear attack I suppose we got off quite lightly.

    Don't speak too soon. There are several hours left for a nuclear attack. What about a radiation charge from the sun destroying the internet and all electronic communication globally?

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic, however we must remember just because Sturgeon has been arrested doesn't mean she will be charged. Not a great weekend for the SNP now either not just the Conservatives

    so Tory, Labour and SNP leaders all investigated by police.

    But only two face further action…
    Sir Ed Davey: Once again the LDs are ignored! We deserve the same level of police scrutiny!
    Police: What's a LD?
    Give them a break. What about Thorpe and later Huhne?
  • FPT :
    algarkirk said:

    viewcode said:
    It’s all staring to get a bit silly now…
    I must say I think the reverse.

    There's so many named recent official sources, which is new.
    What counts is evidence which can be expertly examined and re-examined and reported on according to peer reviewed science standards. Adjectives and hearsay don't count. That which is merely unexplained visual phenomena doesn't count either. We can't explain lots of things - consciousness, the origin of the universe, the reason why the law of gravity is how it is and not different, why we see yellow as yellow and not green, how life began and so on - but we don't attribute it to aliens.

    As and when there is a real story it isn't going to be confined to websites no-one has heard of. There is a fortune out there for real scientists and accurate journalists, and they will get it if they can.

    The rest is noise.

    I wouldn't quite agree with this point of view. Much of the new information is already out there on mainstream news sources, for instance. What we have here, I think, is an entirely new situation where there are multiple current-serving or recently, named governmental officials making extraordinary claims, but for whom there seems to a great deal of legislation preventing them going further. So I would say still this seems to be primarily an issue about process, for the moment, rather than materials or evidence yet.

    This is why the focus in the U.S is shifting to new Congressional hearings, and possible changes in the law to make further whistleblowing on this topic more easy.

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,254
    The SNP types going "look, poll recovery" should recall how many steps it took to get the Tory poll rating where it is now.

    Politically, they need to find ways of inoculating themselves from the various possible events over the next 12-18 months.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813
    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    stodge said:

    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.

    Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.

    I see your point, but actually deflation is generally seen as an economically even worse problem than inflation as people defer spending if prices are expected to fall.

    In general, price stability not dropping prices is the appropriate macroeconomic aim.
    This is a point I have made about falling house prices and its impact on housebuilding. People like the idea that falling house prices and an increase in housebuilding could go together, but the reality is that when house prices are falling people are less likely to borrow large sums of money to buy premium new build houses, so there would be less demand for this type of housing, so the most probable outcome is that housebuilding also falls.
    I think you've got it backwards.

    We don't want a fall in prices to lead to an increase in construction.

    We want an increase in construction to lead to a fall in prices.

    Increased competition absolutely can lead to prices stabilising or falling. And if competition increases, then prices stabilise or fall, then housebuilding falls back, then it will be because the shortage of houses in the system has resolved. Although unless population growth stops entirely, there will always be a need for construction.
    There was no let up in the production of various goods that have fallen in price, massively, over the decades.

    Half the cost of building work is directly wages. That is half is bricks and roof tiles, half labour. Approximately. But the material themselves have labour inputs. And the materials for the materials.

    Some guesses put the ultimate labour portion of a house at 70-80%.

    Labour cost is a direct function, these days, of housing costs. The biggest cost for workers is their own housing!

    So when house prices actually fall, for a period, labour costs will begin to trend down (assuming a competitive labour market). This in turn will make it cheaper to build houses.

    In addition, the U.K. building industry is low productivity, compared to many other countries. Investment in non-exotic machinery - mini cranes and small diggers, say - could halve the work force on a house.
    Its worth noting that half the building work cost of houses may be labour but that's not half the cost of the house.

    An incredibly significant portion of the cost of housing is the cost of land, and almost all of the cost of land is planning permission.

    An acre of farmland can cost £12-25k while an acre of land with planning permission for a house can be worth hundreds of thousands.

    Eliminate that discrepancy and the cost of housing would collapse, without affecting labour costs. And as you say, if its cheaper to house people, then everything including labour becomes cheaper.
    That is, ostensibly, Starmer’s headline policy.
    Whether he can deliver will be interesting to watch.
    If he comes up with serious policies on this issue, I will hold my nose and vote Labour at the next election.
    Careful. HYUFD might say you’re not a real Tory.
    LOL.

    One thing HYUFD is right about is that. I'm certainly a liberal who normally votes Tory. If I vote Labour at the next election it will only be the second time in my life, after voting Labour in 2001 in my first election.

    The Tories should be the party of aspiration for people to have their own home.

    If Starmer can get the importance of that but Sunak can't, what does it say about the state of today's Tory party?
    I was going to offer Land Value Taxation as a policy here (good old Liberal idea).

    The problem Sunak has is he has to balance the requirement of his core vote to maintain the status quo - his core of middle age and elderly northern and midlands home owners rather like the value of their asset continuing to rise which they can pass on (without IHT hopefully) to the children and grandchildren to provide the deposit for the next generation of home owners).

    On the other side, he knows the longer term interests of the country and his Party are served by creating a new generation of home owners but he can't make houses affordable without causing existing values to drop which alienates his core.

    That's not an easy circle to square.
    It's impossible, which is why the Conservative Party will always cave to the interests of the already wealthy in the end. It's why the rumours of the abolition of IHT and revival of Help to Buy continue to swirl, and it also explains why they've already caved to their Southern Nimbies by junking housing targets for local authorities.

    Today's Tories will always default to the elderly homeowner interest, trusting that they can return to power if they bring enough of them on side. What happens when the housing shortage means there aren't enough elderly homeowners left to outvote pissed-off renters is a problem for tomorrow's Tories to solve.
    By then their children will have inherited of course (and even today by 39 most own property with a mortgage)
    There aren't enough houses, therefore those that exist are too expensive. Inheritances will eventually bail some people out, but the numbers staggering under crippling rents into middle age will continue to increase. Eventually this will also undermine your party's support with the grey vote, as more of them end up having to work until they drop down dead to service rents.

    No use bellyaching about the concreting of the countryside I'm afraid. If the Conservatives won't do it, eventually things will get so bad that voters will turn to somebody else who will.
    There are if we cut immigration.

    Most will have inherited by 60-65, so certainly wouldn't need to work beyond normal retirement age (having pensions already saved for too).

    Voters across the South are already voting for NIMBY LDs and Greens and Independents because even the modest housebuilding proposed by former Tory controlled councils was too much. If Starmer tried to concrete all over the greenbelt there would be a revolution in the South
    Nobody is going to cut immigration. Regardless of whether the party in power chooses to indulge in flamboyant acts of performative cruelty against the boat people or not, Britain looks set to import hundreds of thousands of workers every year for the foreseeable future. That's what happens when all of the following is true:

    * Neither the public nor private sector is interested in investing in the upskilling of British workers when cheaper alternatives can be imported (this is particularly the case in the NHS, where there's an extreme level of desperation to fill vacancies yesterday)
    * There is, in any case, a shortage of British-born workers because the proportion of retirees and chronically sick people amongst the population is going up and up and up
    * Immigration isn't a priority for the electorate - a minority of voters may still get very worked up over the boat people, but next to no-one gives a fuck about the students, the health and care workers, the IT professionals and anyone else from abroad who has been invited to study or to do a job

    Besides which, Labour's base is predominantly urban. If it can pull together enough constituencies from the cities, from suburban seats full of younger people who have been priced out of London, from poorer areas where masses of new houses are unlikely to be built anyway, plus from Scotland and Wales, then frankly it could tarmac the whole of Surrey if it wanted and there would be nothing that the Nimby vote in the South could do about it.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    DavidL said:

    "A reminder Mike Smithson is on holiday until tomorrow."

    Well, if it was Nicola arrested or a nuclear attack I suppose we got off quite lightly.

    When tomorrow? Mattins or compline?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,317
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic, however we must remember just because Sturgeon has been arrested doesn't mean she will be charged. Not a great weekend for the SNP now either not just the Conservatives

    Financial misdeeds are complicated, hard to prove, and probably very rarely convicted. My general assumption is these sorts of things go nowhere, and down the line there'll be the sight of some gurning politico talking about being vindicated.

    But at the very least where illegality is not discovered a lot of poor behaviour can be, which can be devasting in its own right. That's something Boris and his cohorts also always forget, by acting as though criminal sanction is the only thing that matters.
    The other thing is that the threshold for 'arrest' is quite low, there just really needs to be some element of suspicion.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,700

    At least Sturgeon got to pass her driving theory test.

    It's only good for about 6 months though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,295

    DavidL said:

    "A reminder Mike Smithson is on holiday until tomorrow."

    Well, if it was Nicola arrested or a nuclear attack I suppose we got off quite lightly.

    When tomorrow? Mattins or compline?
    Technically he returns this evening but I'm keeping an eye on PB for the rest of today.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,700

    Keir Starmer:


    Man's an alky.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,487
    darkage said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic, however we must remember just because Sturgeon has been arrested doesn't mean she will be charged. Not a great weekend for the SNP now either not just the Conservatives

    Financial misdeeds are complicated, hard to prove, and probably very rarely convicted. My general assumption is these sorts of things go nowhere, and down the line there'll be the sight of some gurning politico talking about being vindicated.

    But at the very least where illegality is not discovered a lot of poor behaviour can be, which can be devasting in its own right. That's something Boris and his cohorts also always forget, by acting as though criminal sanction is the only thing that matters.
    The other thing is that the threshold for 'arrest' is quite low, there just really needs to be some element of suspicion.
    On the other hand, the length of time between the other arrests and this one suggests careful thought.
  • DavidL said:

    Keir Starmer:


    Man's an alky.
    All the best leaders are.

    Never trust a teetotaller.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,487
    Maybe they could bail her to the camper van, make some use of it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,295
    I suspect this arrest decision was taken at the highest levels of Police Scotland and the Procurator Fiscal's office.

    Cannot imagine some junior officer decided to do this on their own.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,748
    edited June 2023
    Eabhal said:

    Arrested on a Sunday? Surely there is an unspoken rule against that (unless it is violent or something).

    On the sabbath of all days
  • I suspect this arrest decision was taken at the highest levels of Police Scotland and the Procurator Fiscal's office.

    Cannot imagine some junior officer decided to do this on their own.

    That was the case when Tony Blair was interviewed under caution, wasn't it?

    But he was never arrested was he, just interviewed?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,700
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    "A reminder Mike Smithson is on holiday until tomorrow."

    Well, if it was Nicola arrested or a nuclear attack I suppose we got off quite lightly.

    Don't speak too soon. There are several hours left for a nuclear attack. What about a radiation charge from the sun destroying the internet and all electronic communication globally?

    Yousef is just not that lucky.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,295
    kle4 said:

    Kle4 predicted this.

    I'm batting 1 in a thousand, so don't take any future predictions as gospel.

    As with any arrest things might go nowhere, but who says the authorities on both sides of the Atlantic have no sense of drama?
    All you have to say is 'I predicted Sturgeon's arrest day precisely' and everyone will remember it.

  • Eabhal said:

    Arrested on a Sunday? Surely there is an unspoken rule against that (unless it is violent or something).

    On the sabbath of all days
    It was on Saturday then afterall?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,700

    I suspect this arrest decision was taken at the highest levels of Police Scotland and the Procurator Fiscal's office.

    Cannot imagine some junior officer decided to do this on their own.

    Crown Office will have been consulted but the Lord Advocate and Sol Gen have both excluded themselves from this entirely.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    FPT :

    algarkirk said:

    viewcode said:
    It’s all staring to get a bit silly now…
    I must say I think the reverse.

    There's so many named recent official sources, which is new.
    What counts is evidence which can be expertly examined and re-examined and reported on according to peer reviewed science standards. Adjectives and hearsay don't count. That which is merely unexplained visual phenomena doesn't count either. We can't explain lots of things - consciousness, the origin of the universe, the reason why the law of gravity is how it is and not different, why we see yellow as yellow and not green, how life began and so on - but we don't attribute it to aliens.

    As and when there is a real story it isn't going to be confined to websites no-one has heard of. There is a fortune out there for real scientists and accurate journalists, and they will get it if they can.

    The rest is noise.

    I wouldn't quite agree with this point of view. Much of the new information is already out there on mainstream news sources, for instance. What we have here, I think, is an entirely new situation where there are multiple current-serving or recently, named governmental officials making extraordinary claims, but for whom there seems to a great deal of legislation preventing them going further. So I would say still this seems to be primarily an issue about process, for the moment, rather than materials or evidence yet.

    This is why the focus in the U.S is shifting to new Congressional hearings, and possible changes in the law to make further whistleblowing on this topic more easy.

    I agree that is interesting, but only in the same sense that the recent McCann lake search in Portugal story is interesting. Its interest is in the possibility that something real will be coming along next.

    The discussion should (but won't) wait until the something real comes along next. When it does the world will take real notice. Follow this one at the speed of The Economist.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,295

    I suspect this arrest decision was taken at the highest levels of Police Scotland and the Procurator Fiscal's office.

    Cannot imagine some junior officer decided to do this on their own.

    That was the case when Tony Blair was interviewed under caution, wasn't it?

    But he was never arrested was he, just interviewed?
    He was interviewed as a witness, he wasn't arrested or questioned under caution.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,464

    Keir Starmer:


    A very lucky General...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,804
    Let us all remember at this time that this issue has nothing whatsoever to do with why Sturgeon resigned from the leadership.

    Also, Murrell was a super competent Chief Executive in not at all a conflicted position being married to the Leader, until the very end when he decided to be incompetent for the first time by authorising lying about the party's membership numbers, and forgot to tell people about major purchases.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,700
    darkage said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic, however we must remember just because Sturgeon has been arrested doesn't mean she will be charged. Not a great weekend for the SNP now either not just the Conservatives

    Financial misdeeds are complicated, hard to prove, and probably very rarely convicted. My general assumption is these sorts of things go nowhere, and down the line there'll be the sight of some gurning politico talking about being vindicated.

    But at the very least where illegality is not discovered a lot of poor behaviour can be, which can be devasting in its own right. That's something Boris and his cohorts also always forget, by acting as though criminal sanction is the only thing that matters.
    The other thing is that the threshold for 'arrest' is quite low, there just really needs to be some element of suspicion.
    The point of an arrest is that they are then interviewed under caution. That means that the interview is video recorded and is available as evidence in court should that be necessary.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,804
    Foxy said:

    Keir Starmer:


    A very lucky General...
    His turtle approach of slow and steady did seem to be perhaps overcautious, but has paid real dividends in the last year.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,976
    LOL.
  • I suspect this arrest decision was taken at the highest levels of Police Scotland and the Procurator Fiscal's office.

    Cannot imagine some junior officer decided to do this on their own.

    That was the case when Tony Blair was interviewed under caution, wasn't it?

    But he was never arrested was he, just interviewed?
    I don't think he was interviewed under caution. I think he was interviewed as a witness rather than a suspect.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,570
    edited June 2023
    DavidL said:

    darkage said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic, however we must remember just because Sturgeon has been arrested doesn't mean she will be charged. Not a great weekend for the SNP now either not just the Conservatives

    Financial misdeeds are complicated, hard to prove, and probably very rarely convicted. My general assumption is these sorts of things go nowhere, and down the line there'll be the sight of some gurning politico talking about being vindicated.

    But at the very least where illegality is not discovered a lot of poor behaviour can be, which can be devasting in its own right. That's something Boris and his cohorts also always forget, by acting as though criminal sanction is the only thing that matters.
    The other thing is that the threshold for 'arrest' is quite low, there just really needs to be some element of suspicion.
    The point of an arrest is that they are then interviewed under caution. That means that the interview is video recorded and is available as evidence in court should that be necessary.
    There really ought to be another word invented so witnesses avoid the stigma of arrest.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,079
    Foxy said:

    Keir Starmer:


    A very lucky General...
    Talk about being in the right place at the right time. Remember when we seriously debated Andy Burnham to be next Labour leader?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    DavidL said:

    "A reminder Mike Smithson is on holiday until tomorrow."

    Well, if it was Nicola arrested or a nuclear attack I suppose we got off quite lightly.

    When tomorrow? Mattins or compline?
    Technically he returns this evening but I'm keeping an eye on PB for the rest of today.
    Meanwhile thank you for lightening our darkness; Lord, lettest thou thy servant depart in peace.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    I’m sorry for being right about everything. I know it’s annoying


  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,255
    Chortle
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,570
    Leon said:

    I’m sorry for being right about everything. I know it’s annoying


    We discussed this while you were busy posting your holiday photos.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,176

    FPT :

    algarkirk said:

    viewcode said:
    It’s all staring to get a bit silly now…
    I must say I think the reverse.

    There's so many named recent official sources, which is new.
    What counts is evidence which can be expertly examined and re-examined and reported on according to peer reviewed science standards. Adjectives and hearsay don't count. That which is merely unexplained visual phenomena doesn't count either. We can't explain lots of things - consciousness, the origin of the universe, the reason why the law of gravity is how it is and not different, why we see yellow as yellow and not green, how life began and so on - but we don't attribute it to aliens.

    As and when there is a real story it isn't going to be confined to websites no-one has heard of. There is a fortune out there for real scientists and accurate journalists, and they will get it if they can.

    The rest is noise.

    I wouldn't quite agree with this point of view. Much of the new information is already out there on mainstream news sources, for instance. What we have here, I think, is an entirely new situation where there are multiple current-serving or recently, named governmental officials making extraordinary claims, but for whom there seems to a great deal of legislation preventing them going further. So I would say still this seems to be primarily an issue about process, for the moment, rather than materials or evidence yet.

    This is why the focus in the U.S is shifting to new Congressional hearings, and possible changes in the law to make further whistleblowing on this topic more easy.

    And an awful lot more current serving or recent officials pouring scorn on the idea.

    It’s grift, pure and simple, and it’s conning people who want to believe.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,255
    What’s Sturgeon supposed to have done, anyway?
    Mislaid a campervan?

    And don’t give me the sub judice shite.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,700

    DavidL said:

    darkage said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dramatic, however we must remember just because Sturgeon has been arrested doesn't mean she will be charged. Not a great weekend for the SNP now either not just the Conservatives

    Financial misdeeds are complicated, hard to prove, and probably very rarely convicted. My general assumption is these sorts of things go nowhere, and down the line there'll be the sight of some gurning politico talking about being vindicated.

    But at the very least where illegality is not discovered a lot of poor behaviour can be, which can be devasting in its own right. That's something Boris and his cohorts also always forget, by acting as though criminal sanction is the only thing that matters.
    The other thing is that the threshold for 'arrest' is quite low, there just really needs to be some element of suspicion.
    The point of an arrest is that they are then interviewed under caution. That means that the interview is video recorded and is available as evidence in court should that be necessary.
    There really ought to be another word invented so witnesses avoid the stigma of arrest.
    Witnesses are generally not recorded giving their statements except in the case of children or particularly vulnerable people. And even when they are it could not be used against them. She is not being interviewed as a witness if she has been arrested.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,255
    edited June 2023
    I remember when Britain was considered politically stable and relatively lacking in the corruption seen in lesser polities like France or the US.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited June 2023

    FPT :

    algarkirk said:

    viewcode said:
    It’s all staring to get a bit silly now…
    I must say I think the reverse.

    There's so many named recent official sources, which is new.
    What counts is evidence which can be expertly examined and re-examined and reported on according to peer reviewed science standards. Adjectives and hearsay don't count. That which is merely unexplained visual phenomena doesn't count either. We can't explain lots of things - consciousness, the origin of the universe, the reason why the law of gravity is how it is and not different, why we see yellow as yellow and not green, how life began and so on - but we don't attribute it to aliens.

    As and when there is a real story it isn't going to be confined to websites no-one has heard of. There is a fortune out there for real scientists and accurate journalists, and they will get it if they can.

    The rest is noise.

    I wouldn't quite agree with this point of view. Much of the new information is already out there on mainstream news sources, for instance. What we have here, I think, is an entirely new situation where there are multiple current-serving or recently, named governmental officials making extraordinary claims, but for whom there seems to a great deal of legislation preventing them going further. So I would say still this seems to be primarily an issue about process, for the moment, rather than materials or evidence yet.

    This is why the focus in the U.S is shifting to new Congressional hearings, and possible changes in the law to make further whistleblowing on this topic more easy.

    And an awful lot more current serving or recent officials pouring scorn on the idea.

    It’s grift, pure and simple, and it’s conning people who want to believe.
    Well, let's do a little bit of a cut-and-paste of all the most credible recent sources, and do a sort of compilation of them, to see how they stack up.

    When I have some time in a a bit, I will try and have a nose about to put everything that's most important, in a list.
  • FPT :

    algarkirk said:

    viewcode said:
    It’s all staring to get a bit silly now…
    I must say I think the reverse.

    There's so many named recent official sources, which is new.
    What counts is evidence which can be expertly examined and re-examined and reported on according to peer reviewed science standards. Adjectives and hearsay don't count. That which is merely unexplained visual phenomena doesn't count either. We can't explain lots of things - consciousness, the origin of the universe, the reason why the law of gravity is how it is and not different, why we see yellow as yellow and not green, how life began and so on - but we don't attribute it to aliens.

    As and when there is a real story it isn't going to be confined to websites no-one has heard of. There is a fortune out there for real scientists and accurate journalists, and they will get it if they can.

    The rest is noise.

    I wouldn't quite agree with this point of view. Much of the new information is already out there on mainstream news sources, for instance. What we have here, I think, is an entirely new situation where there are multiple current-serving or recently, named governmental officials making extraordinary claims, but for whom there seems to a great deal of legislation preventing them going further. So I would say still this seems to be primarily an issue about process, for the moment, rather than materials or evidence yet.

    This is why the focus in the U.S is shifting to new Congressional hearings, and possible changes in the law to make further whistleblowing on this topic more easy.

    And an awful lot more current serving or recent officials pouring scorn on the idea.

    It’s grift, pure and simple, and it’s conning people who want to believe.
    Well, let's do a little bit of a cut-and-paste of all the most credible recent sources, and do a sort of compilation of them, to see how they stack up.

    When I have some time in a a bit, I will nose about and put them all together.
    Kind of a problem when there are no credible sources, just grifters and lunatics.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,575
    So THAT'S why she resigned earlier this year!
  • TresTres Posts: 2,685

    What’s Sturgeon supposed to have done, anyway?
    Mislaid a campervan?

    And don’t give me the sub judice shite.

    The SNP received a lot of donations for indy-ref 2. This has clearly not happened and some members of the public have complained that the SNP can't account for how this money has been spent. Sturgeon's husband was the man in charge of the finances (as it appears the party's elected treasurer are mere figureheads) and their previous auditors declined to continue to work with the SNP.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668

    Leon said:

    I’m sorry for being right about everything. I know it’s annoying


    We discussed this while you were busy posting your holiday photos.
    Nonetheless, I was right, wasn’t I? All those months and years ago, when I told you: IT CAME FROM THE LAB

    At one point I was the only person on PB voicing that opinion, to the derision of all others. Indeed I was about to give up, until @Gardenwalker - bless him - said “you know, you might be on to something”

    Think that was late 2020?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,751
    I must try very hard not to resort to schadenfreude here.

    I tried. Couldn’t manage it. LOL
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,976

    I remember when Britain was considered politically stable and relatively lacking in the corruption seen in lesser polities like France or the US.

    Your objection is purely to when you think the wrong sort of people are being held to account.

    If this was Boris Johnson you'd be pleasuring yourself so furiously you'd barely have time to post your euphoria on here.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,295

    I remember when Britain was considered politically stable and relatively lacking in the corruption seen in lesser polities like France or the US.

    Perhaps devolution has been the root cause of all the problems in the 2000s. It opened the door to constitutional referendums and nationalist politics.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,255

    I remember when Britain was considered politically stable and relatively lacking in the corruption seen in lesser polities like France or the US.

    Your objection is purely to when you think the wrong sort of people are being held to account.

    If this was Boris Johnson you'd be pleasuring yourself so furiously you'd barely have time to post your euphoria on here.
    Sorry, what, are you suggesting I object to Sturgeon’s arrest?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    Crumbs!
    Can't even go to Asda without it all kicking off.
    Whatever prayers and votive offerings SKS sent this week, well, I'd like some of that.
    Maybe the Almighty joined the Labour Party on Friday afternoon?
  • What’s Sturgeon supposed to have done, anyway?
    Mislaid a campervan?

    And don’t give me the sub judice shite.

    Given the central allegation is her husband used SNP funds as essentially a personal slush fund, the obvious possibilities are that she was either involved in that at the time, or subsequently sought to obstruct the investigation into her husband (whether out of belief in his innocence or knowledge of his guilt).

    But that's speculation - Police clearly aren't going to confirm position.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    I’m sorry for being right about everything. I know it’s annoying


    We did this yesterday
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,295
    A Spokesperson for Nicola Sturgeon has released a statement after the former Scottish first minister was arrested over SNP finances

    "Nicola has consistently said she will cooperate with the investigation if asked".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,804

    What’s Sturgeon supposed to have done, anyway?
    Mislaid a campervan?

    And don’t give me the sub judice shite.

    Supposedly ringfenced funding is apparently hard to find, and various odd purchases which even the treasurers did not know about have been identified.

    What might have happened is unclear and what amounts to a crime in this area seems even unclearer. So there's suspicion but detailed allegations are rare.

    What does seem clear at the very least is that Murrell and Sturgeon were not doing a good job overseeing the party finances and no one else in the party seems to have had any ability to have real input to them, whatever their position.
  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 202

    At least Sturgeon got to pass her driving theory test.

    Is that why they’ve waited to move the camper van from outside the MIL’s gaff?
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761

    I remember when Britain was considered politically stable and relatively lacking in the corruption seen in lesser polities like France or the US.

    Your objection is purely to when you think the wrong sort of people are being held to account.

    If this was Boris Johnson you'd be pleasuring yourself so furiously you'd barely have time to post your euphoria on here.
    Yuck
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,575
    edited June 2023
    Eabhal said:

    Arrested on a Sunday? Surely there is an unspoken rule against that (unless it is violent or something).

    Hi @Eabhal, saw your post the other day re. the tram to Newhaven (Leith). Great to see it finally open, though being 400 miles away down south, I'll need to sort out a convenient time to do the extension myself (I have an "aspiration" to do it in tandem with a ride on the Bo'ness and Kinneil).
  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 202

    So…


    Stuart Dickson fans, please explain.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668

    FPT :

    algarkirk said:

    viewcode said:
    It’s all staring to get a bit silly now…
    I must say I think the reverse.

    There's so many named recent official sources, which is new.
    What counts is evidence which can be expertly examined and re-examined and reported on according to peer reviewed science standards. Adjectives and hearsay don't count. That which is merely unexplained visual phenomena doesn't count either. We can't explain lots of things - consciousness, the origin of the universe, the reason why the law of gravity is how it is and not different, why we see yellow as yellow and not green, how life began and so on - but we don't attribute it to aliens.

    As and when there is a real story it isn't going to be confined to websites no-one has heard of. There is a fortune out there for real scientists and accurate journalists, and they will get it if they can.

    The rest is noise.

    I wouldn't quite agree with this point of view. Much of the new information is already out there on mainstream news sources, for instance. What we have here, I think, is an entirely new situation where there are multiple current-serving or recently, named governmental officials making extraordinary claims, but for whom there seems to a great deal of legislation preventing them going further. So I would say still this seems to be primarily an issue about process, for the moment, rather than materials or evidence yet.

    This is why the focus in the U.S is shifting to new Congressional hearings, and possible changes in the law to make further whistleblowing on this topic more easy.

    And an awful lot more current serving or recent officials pouring scorn on the idea.

    It’s grift, pure and simple, and it’s conning people who want to believe.
    Well, let's do a little bit of a cut-and-paste of all the most credible recent sources, and do a sort of compilation of them, to see how they stack up.

    When I have some time in a a bit, I will nose about and put them all together.
    Kind of a problem when there are no credible sources, just grifters and lunatics.
    This is a good piece on the latest UFO flap, and why it is different from all others. It makes the point I have been making for many months (but maybe you will accept it from the NYT if not from me) - even if you discount any idea of actual non human intelligence, the level of disclosure is now so high and detailed and “legitimate” something really really WEIRD is happening in the US government. At the very least. And smart people should now pay attention to this story


This discussion has been closed.