Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.
Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.
Inflation is one of those subjects where the electorate don't have a firm grasp of the technicalities but understand the realities only too well. If inflation halves but necessities are still less affordable than they were because of high prices then voters will rightly still see inflation as a big problem.
The slightly belated and rarely-sighted Saturday Rawnsley:
The man [Johnson] is a coward. Whenever faced with the consequences of his actions, he ducks. Whenever confronted with a choice that requires some courage, he swerves. Whenever asked to make good on a promise, he betrays. Whenever the choice is fight or flight, he flees.
In the richly storied history of British politics, there has been no ascent, peak, decline and fall quite like it. Some people have a go at trying to compare him with previous tenants of Number 10, but that is a futile quest. We have never seen anyone quite like him in Downing Street before and, if we are a lucky country, we will never do so again. Being Boris Johnson, he is exiting the stage without a shred of humility, a scintilla of remorse or a sliver of recognition that he brought this on himself.
He could have sought to have the committee’s verdict – which I am told is coruscating – overturned by the Commons. Someone who authentically believed himself to have suffered a miscarriage of justice might have attempted that. That he has chosen not to appeal to the Commons is an implied acknowledgment of how low his standing has sunk even among the Conservative MPs who put him in Number 10.
There is no martyr to see here. There is a man who serially debased the high office that he was never fit to hold. There is a man who turned government into a carnival of clowning, chaos and chicanery. There is a man who presided over an appalling regime of lockdown-busting and law-breaking in Downing Street which triggered entirely justified public outrage and was poison for the people’s faith in government.
Some of the officials who saw him at close quarters at Number 10 came away from the experience wondering whether he actually understood the difference between right and wrong and whether he ever really grasped the distinction between the truth and lies. Unless he has entirely succumbed to delusions, there must surely be a portion of his brain which knows that the person responsible for the destruction of his political career stares back him at him whenever he looks in a mirror. Yet he can never acknowledge, at least not in public, what is obvious even to some of those who were once counted among his most ardent supporters. It is the way of the coward to flinch from confronting the inescapable truth that the architect of Boris Johnson’s downfall is Boris Johnson.
Or to be more concise, what is the common element behind all his troubles? His carelessness and selfishness.
Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.
Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.
I see your point, but actually deflation is generally seen as an economically even worse problem than inflation as people defer spending if prices are expected to fall.
In general, price stability not dropping prices is the appropriate macroeconomic aim.
The Times has done it again. Anyone on here who still denies the lab leak theory is spouting Chinese propaganda. COVID leaked from the Chinese lab and then China, with the help of useful idiots in the West, covered it up and called anyone who disagreed a racist.
Bloody hell.
I'd like to see the underlying report, rather than the The Times's reportage, but this looks like the first genuinely new evidence in about two years.
At the very least it shows the irritating magisterial dismissals we’ve had to put up with from many commentators over 3 years are as misplaced and overconfident as they always seemed.
It may yet turn out that the virus had a natural origin but the evidence for that never looked overwhelming.
The issue is that previous and no doubt future pandemics arose and will arise through natural means. See SARS, MERS etc. So just perfectly possible for Covid to have had a natural origin. It also seems that the WIV was doing so nasty experiments that had the potential to go very wrong. I don’t think this work, excellent though it is, is a slam dunk. Both options are still possible.
The Green Party could lose their only seat in Parliament at the next general election, according to recent polling.
According to a poll for Best for Britain, Brighton Pavilion would elect a Labour MP for the first time since 2010 if an election was held tomorrow.
The poll put Labour support in the constituency at 32.7 per cent, up almost 10 per cent from their result in the last general election.
However, support for the Greens is forecast to crater; from 57.2 per cent at the 2019 election to just 28.4 per cent - a staggering 28.8 per cent drop.
Interesting that poll still predicts no seats for the Lib Dems in an area where they used to be pretty strong.
The LibDems could very easily have a pretty shitty 2024.
And, no, I don't mean they won't gain seats. I'm confident they'll be up on 2019. But it doesn't take much for dreams of 50 seats to turn into a mushy 18 or 19.
Good morning, one and all.
The target for the Lib Dems must be one more seat than the Scottish nationalists. That way, they’ll get a voice in parliament, as the third party.
Current EMA into Electoral Calculus with tactical voting puts the Lib Dems on 28 seats and the SNP on 26.
That would be quite satisfactory! I’m surprised they think the Greens will retain one seat, though.
Probably hasn't caught up with the news that Lucas is standing down.
What an indictment of the system though that a Party can win 5% of the national vote but have little chance of winning a seat.
Hey, the SNP manage to get loads of seats on even less of the national vote! So its all good.
This is a sad indictment of how well Maths has been taught in our schools over the years...
...and I speak as a Maths teacher of 34 years' experience
A poster yesterday (correctly) pointed out that if inflation falls, it could be because certain products are actually falling in price, whilst others are continuing to rise but as inflation is a blended rate, it is possible for certain things to fall in price whilst suffering 5% inflation overall.
That's what I'm clinging to. I refuse to believe nearly half the population are as dumb as Boris Johnson.
The header poll is a sad indictment both of Sunak's political skills and the UK population's financial nous; Sunak might achieve his inflation target and get no credit for it.
OTOH he has no chance whatsoever of achieving his debt goal: "We will make sure our national debt is falling so that we can secure the future of public services.". I bet he still claims success though, if the deficit is reducing.
Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.
Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.
I see your point, but actually deflation is generally seen as an economically even worse problem than inflation as people defer spending if prices are expected to fall.
In general, price stability not dropping prices is the appropriate macroeconomic aim.
Though there is “good deflation”, where prices drop due to technology and increases in productivity. The classic is the reduction in cost of many consumer goods over the last few decades.
This will of course rumble on because of the three (or more?) by-elections themselves, which will only add to the sense of disunity.
The Boris wing of the party. Or, rather, the wing of the party with whom Boris hitched a ride, are by no means finished. They are vociferous with powerful allies. And unfortunately for Rishi Sunak, they represent a part of the electorate that no other tory can reach - the kind who get in a lather about migrants, trans rights, and the bbc etc.
Meanwhile Nigel Farage, in full-on Trumpian mode, has declared that there's an establishment plot to reverse Brexit.
The tories are toast.
The more gibberish I read from you, the more I almost want to support the Tories again. Its complete nonsense.
Boris is history, he's gone, finished, over.
Farage is even more history. He could never win a seat to Parliament even before Brexit. Now he's a total fart in the wind.
People will understand that the economy is improving when their personal economy starts improving. Before that the pumping out of statistics and claims about economic success only hits the public as attempts to decieve them. That is (one big reason for) what happened to Major and Clarke. Pretty soon the politicians' lips move but the public doesn't hear the words any more. I suspect the Five Priorities stuff is pretty close to that cliff-edge already
To be clear: contrary to headlines, Boris Johnson quitting as an MP has little effect on anything, the Tory party is not in civil war, his action is not a disaster for anyone, he's not about to stand in a by-election anywhere, and his action is unlikely to have an effect on voter intention polls. It will probably put the price of his memoirs up, though. He is unlikely to go on the speech circuit either, because he can't handle his drugs well enough. I blame David Cameron who let him attend cabinet while he was mayor of London, and also Teresa May who appointed him as foreign secretary.
The headlines aren't being fabricated - there is an insurrection against Sunak and Boris is the figurehead. Truss wanted to lead her own insurrection but is mental.
Any "insurrection " won't go anywhere as the MPs won't play. Don't forget it was Tory MPs who removed Boris and Truss. The real game will be after the election but Boris and Truss won't be major players.
Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.
Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.
I see your point, but actually deflation is generally seen as an economically even worse problem than inflation as people defer spending if prices are expected to fall.
In general, price stability not dropping prices is the appropriate macroeconomic aim.
Though there is “good deflation”, where prices drop due to technology and increases in productivity. The classic is the reduction in cost of many consumer goods over the last few decades.
The terms "inflation" and "deflation" refer to the GENERAL level of prices - they are macroeconomic terms of art.
Yes, you're right that innovation and competition might push the price level of some particular products and services down over time. But that isn't what deflation means economically.
The header poll is a sad indictment both of Sunak's political skills and the UK population's financial nous; Sunak might achieve his inflation target and get no credit for it.
OTOH he has no chance whatsoever of achieving his debt goal: "We will make sure our national debt is falling so that we can secure the future of public services.". I bet he still claims success though, if the deficit is reducing.
Falling inflation ≠ falling prices.
Falling deficit ≠ falling debt.
Falling debt is not achievable. Falling debt as a percentage of GDP absolutely is.
It looks to me like Johnson is done. He's out of parliament, the tories are going to be out of power within 18 months or so, and the ethics committee might cook his goose for good anyway. Time to move on.
In more important news, a great day for British cycling yesterday. Rachel Atherton took the win in the Lenzerheide Women's Elite DH, at 35 and after taking time off to have a baby, and 18 year old Jordan Williams grabbed top spot in his first ever Elite race.
I actually considered placing a bet on Atherton, but couldn't find anywhere to place it!
This is a sad indictment of how well Maths has been taught in our schools over the years...
...and I speak as a Maths teacher of 34 years' experience
A poster yesterday (correctly) pointed out that if inflation falls, it could be because certain products are actually falling in price, whilst others are continuing to rise but as inflation is a blended rate, it is possible for certain things to fall in price whilst suffering 5% inflation overall.
That's what I'm clinging to. I refuse to believe nearly half the population are as dumb as Boris Johnson.
For a considerable period time, overall inflation was low because consumer goods were falling in price, while other things rose.
And housing costs weren’t included in inflation. Because housing costs have no influence* on people’s spending habits or the economy.
*The original reason for not including housing costs was that inflation was the measure to set interest rates - to control inflation. Putting up interest rates would increase inflation (if housing costs are included) which result in a feedback loop.
Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.
Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.
I see your point, but actually deflation is generally seen as an economically even worse problem than inflation as people defer spending if prices are expected to fall.
In general, price stability not dropping prices is the appropriate macroeconomic aim.
This is a point I have made about falling house prices and its impact on housebuilding. People like the idea that falling house prices and an increase in housebuilding could go together, but the reality is that when house prices are falling people are less likely to borrow large sums of money to buy premium new build houses, so there would be less demand for this type of housing, so the most probable outcome is that housebuilding also falls.
The header poll is a sad indictment both of Sunak's political skills and the UK population's financial nous; Sunak might achieve his inflation target and get no credit for it.
OTOH he has no chance whatsoever of achieving his debt goal: "We will make sure our national debt is falling so that we can secure the future of public services.". I bet he still claims success though, if the deficit is reducing.
Falling inflation ≠ falling prices.
Falling deficit ≠ falling debt.
In fairness to Sunak when you are reasonably bright and very well educated understanding that nearly half of the population thinks falling inflation means falling prices must be difficult, bordering on bewildering.
He has played around with debt though. What I think he means is that debt would be falling as a share of GDP, that is the deficit (increase in debt) would be less than growth. It is deliberately misleading and is simply not going to happen in any event.
I see we're reverting back to the pre-Brexit times now
We'd get constant talk of Tory MPs flirting with leaving the party. Granted, we did eventually get a few, but seriously what would be the point now? Brexit has been achieved, and if many Tories are unhappy about how it is going and wary of backsliding then helping the Tories lose even more by joining Farage's mob isn't going to help. And what the heck would lead so many of them to go to Reform anyway, what does Reform stand for that the Tories do not?
Just another attempt to stay in the past rather than have our politics move on - Parliament is full of nostalgists though, so I guess we cannot discount the idea entirely.
This is a sad indictment of how well Maths has been taught in our schools over the years...
...and I speak as a Maths teacher of 34 years' experience
A poster yesterday (correctly) pointed out that if inflation falls, it could be because certain products are actually falling in price, whilst others are continuing to rise but as inflation is a blended rate, it is possible for certain things to fall in price whilst suffering 5% inflation overall.
That's what I'm clinging to. I refuse to believe nearly half the population are as dumb as Boris Johnson.
For a considerable period time, overall inflation was low because consumer goods were falling in price, while other things rose.
And housing costs weren’t included in inflation. Because housing costs have no influence* on people’s spending habits or the economy.
*The original reason for not including housing costs was that inflation was the measure to set interest rates - to control inflation. Putting up interest rates would increase inflation (if housing costs are included) which result in a feedback loop.
A timely reminder of the problem of measuring inflation (and economic concepts in general) and of gaming particular measures that are used as targets.
Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.
Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.
I see your point, but actually deflation is generally seen as an economically even worse problem than inflation as people defer spending if prices are expected to fall.
In general, price stability not dropping prices is the appropriate macroeconomic aim.
This is a point I have made about falling house prices and its impact on housebuilding. People like the idea that falling house prices and an increase in housebuilding could go together, but the reality is that when house prices are falling people are less likely to borrow large sums of money to buy premium new build houses, so there would be less demand for this type of housing, so the most probable outcome is that housebuilding also falls.
I think you've got it backwards.
We don't want a fall in prices to lead to an increase in construction.
We want an increase in construction to lead to a fall in prices.
Increased competition absolutely can lead to prices stabilising or falling. And if competition increases, then prices stabilise or fall, then housebuilding falls back, then it will be because the shortage of houses in the system has resolved. Although unless population growth stops entirely, there will always be a need for construction.
Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.
Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.
I see your point, but actually deflation is generally seen as an economically even worse problem than inflation as people defer spending if prices are expected to fall.
In general, price stability not dropping prices is the appropriate macroeconomic aim.
I remember reading quite a lot of economic papers 40 years ago suggesting that the optimum for growth is low inflation which gives a slight incentive to spending now and a disincentive to sitting on savings and cash. My understanding is that the 2% target for the BoE is still based on that proposition.
The header poll is a sad indictment both of Sunak's political skills and the UK population's financial nous; Sunak might achieve his inflation target and get no credit for it.
OTOH he has no chance whatsoever of achieving his debt goal: "We will make sure our national debt is falling so that we can secure the future of public services.". I bet he still claims success though, if the deficit is reducing.
Falling inflation ≠ falling prices.
Falling deficit ≠ falling debt.
Falling debt is not achievable. Falling debt as a percentage of GDP absolutely is.
I agree at present, although the UK regularly ran a budget surplus post-war up to the 1970s, such that the national debt (which was HUGE immediately post-war for obvious reasons) fell in absolute as well as % of GDP terms.
It looks to me like Johnson is done. He's out of parliament, the tories are going to be out of power within 18 months or so, and the ethics committee might cook his goose for good anyway. Time to move on.
In more important news, a great day for British cycling yesterday. Rachel Atherton took the win in the Lenzerheide Women's Elite DH, at 35 and after taking time off to have a baby, and 18 year old Jordan Williams grabbed top spot in his first ever Elite race.
I actually considered placing a bet on Atherton, but couldn't find anywhere to place it!
In general, you can ask bookmakers to quote you a price. Obviously, they will know who you intend to back so it might not be a good price.
Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.
Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.
Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.
Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.
I see your point, but actually deflation is generally seen as an economically even worse problem than inflation as people defer spending if prices are expected to fall.
In general, price stability not dropping prices is the appropriate macroeconomic aim.
I remember reading quite a lot of economic papers 40 years ago suggesting that the optimum for growth is low inflation which gives a slight incentive to spending now and a disincentive to sitting on savings and cash. My understanding is that the 2% target for the BoE is still based on that proposition.
I think it’s more that a 2% target makes things very obvious - most people look at returns and are happy to save if they see a return of say 5-6% even if inflation is running at 7-8%. At lower levels the incentive to save is reduced..,
Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.
Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.
I feel he's communicated this really badly.
It’s more fundamental than that - he doesn’t realise that most people don’t understand relative rates of change - for instance they think about speed rather than acceleration, and while inflation is about the acceleration of prices, most people think inflation is about the current price.
One thing Bozo knew was that most people know and understand less Han you do so keep things simple.
Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.
Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.
I see your point, but actually deflation is generally seen as an economically even worse problem than inflation as people defer spending if prices are expected to fall.
In general, price stability not dropping prices is the appropriate macroeconomic aim.
I remember reading quite a lot of economic papers 40 years ago suggesting that the optimum for growth is low inflation which gives a slight incentive to spending now and a disincentive to sitting on savings and cash. My understanding is that the 2% target for the BoE is still based on that proposition.
I think it’s more that a 2% target makes things very obvious - most people look at returns and are happy to save if they see a return of say 5-6% even if inflation is running at 7-8%. At lower levels the incentive to save is reduced..,
When you see the thread header I think we need to be careful about what is "obvious". The last decade or so, since the GFC, has been unusual in that we have had an extended period of negative interest rates, that is less than inflation. This has caused serious distortions in our economy and aggravated our propensity to over consume. We need to get back to real interest rates that are higher than inflation. We may achieve this next year if inflation continues to fall.
Having said that, I think the trend favours the LibDems, especially if we pull off a victory in Mid Beds. Train loads are going there today.
Had a Labour request to help in specific canvass sessions in all 3 seats yesterday, and both LibDem and Green candidates in Uxbridge are making vocal claims. But I still think that in practice LibDems will dominate the anti-Tory vote in mid-Beds and Labour in Uxbridge, and probably the Yorkshire seat too.
To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it ...”
I quote Orwell’s description of doublethink almost in full because I think it offers a useful lens to understand the psychological state of the UK on the weekend that Boris Johnson — perhaps the most consequential British politician of this century — announced his retirement from parliament, if not yet from politics.
Seven years on, we are facing the worst cost of living crisis in history. Our economy has spluttered, trade in goods has fallen and life expectancy for the poorest may be falling, too. The lives of real people up and down the nation — in Remain and Leave areas — are diminished, crueller, thinner. Most of the free-trade deals vanished in a puff of smoke — Johnson couldn’t even deliver free trade across the United Kingdom. The much-vaunted extra money for the NHS? Patients face the longest waiting lists in history. The slash and burn of “unnecessary” regulations? Much of the absurd Retained EU Law Bill was scrapped when Brexiters came face to face with what it would actually mean.
The point is that almost every claim of Brexiters has collided with reality and crumbled. And yet we are still lost in a labyrinth a majority voted for, our politicians searching for a vocabulary that hints at the disaster of Brexit without admitting it, that seeks to tackle its symptoms without addressing its cause. Welcome to Doublethink Britain
Or as Rory put it:- Johnson is after all the most accomplished liar in public life. He has mastered the use of error, omission, exaggeration, diminution, equivocation and flat denial. He has perfected casuistry, circumlocution, false equivalence and false analogy. He is equally adept at the ironic jest, the fib and the grand lie; the weasel word and the half-truth; the hyperbolic lie, the obvious lie, and the bullshit lie – which may inadvertently be true. https://www.the-tls.co.uk/articles/boris-johnson-tom-bower-book-review-rory-stewart/
Trouble is, as we see with some of that ilk (but, it should be noted, by no means all, or even many) on here, the Tories and right-wingers were only too happy to go along with that. It's not just individuals but the party which is in denial of its own incompetence and malice.
To give auld George another work out, ‘We were always at war with Eurasia’ .
People will understand that the economy is improving when their personal economy starts improving. Before that the pumping out of statistics and claims about economic success only hits the public as attempts to decieve them. That is (one big reason for) what happened to Major and Clarke. Pretty soon the politicians' lips move but the public doesn't hear the words any more. I suspect the Five Priorities stuff is pretty close to that cliff-edge already
The big problem for the Tories is this: they can't help themselves with regards to sneering arrogance. We already see it writ large with Deputy Chairman Lee 30p Anderson, and he is far from alone.
They will insist the economy is on the mend, everyone is better off and if you are not then that must be YOUR fault.
I see we're reverting back to the pre-Brexit times now
We'd get constant talk of Tory MPs flirting with leaving the party. Granted, we did eventually get a few, but seriously what would be the point now? Brexit has been achieved, and if many Tories are unhappy about how it is going and wary of backsliding then helping the Tories lose even more by joining Farage's mob isn't going to help. And what the heck would lead so many of them to go to Reform anyway, what does Reform stand for that the Tories do not?
Just another attempt to stay in the past rather than have our politics move on - Parliament is full of nostalgists though, so I guess we cannot discount the idea entirely.
Morning to all pB campers, on this sunny paradise of a hot weekend. I'm remembering today the period around 2016, when Daily Mail commenters were trying to spontaneously organise a knighthood petition around their hero Sir Nigel.
If Sir Nigel Farage were to ride in now on his chariot and with his Drake moustache, and adding the opposite effect of the 2019 election, with a division in the Tory vote rather than an unofficial pact as he had then with the Brexit Party, that really would be the icing on the cake for all the Opposition parties.
This is a sad indictment of how well Maths has been taught in our schools over the years...
...and I speak as a Maths teacher of 34 years' experience
A poster yesterday (correctly) pointed out that if inflation falls, it could be because certain products are actually falling in price, whilst others are continuing to rise but as inflation is a blended rate, it is possible for certain things to fall in price whilst suffering 5% inflation overall.
That's what I'm clinging to. I refuse to believe nearly half the population are as dumb as Boris Johnson.
For a considerable period time, overall inflation was low because consumer goods were falling in price, while other things rose.
And housing costs weren’t included in inflation. Because housing costs have no influence* on people’s spending habits or the economy.
*The original reason for not including housing costs was that inflation was the measure to set interest rates - to control inflation. Putting up interest rates would increase inflation (if housing costs are included) which result in a feedback loop.
A timely reminder of the problem of measuring inflation (and economic concepts in general) and of gaming particular measures that are used as targets.
We had years of falling consumer goods, a few things rising and double digit house price inflation.
Central banks squeezed inflation - into house prices.
I see we're reverting back to the pre-Brexit times now
Get a bloody move on then...
We've heard it before, etc. But it'd be worth one header discussing what the actual impact would be if Boris and Nigel formed a new party - hard to imagine two strong personalities sharing the helm, but it'd certainly be interesting. It's possible that they'd crash and burn, or that they'd mop up the Red Wall instead of Labour, or that they'd displace the Tories as the populist right alternative.
To be clear: contrary to headlines, Boris Johnson quitting as an MP has little effect on anything, the Tory party is not in civil war, his action is not a disaster for anyone, he's not about to stand in a by-election anywhere, and his action is unlikely to have an effect on voter intention polls. It will probably put the price of his memoirs up, though. He is unlikely to go on the speech circuit either, because he can't handle his drugs well enough. I blame David Cameron who let him attend cabinet while he was mayor of London, and also Teresa May who appointed him as foreign secretary.
The headlines aren't being fabricated - there is an insurrection against Sunak and Boris is the figurehead. Truss wanted to lead her own insurrection but is mental.
Any "insurrection " won't go anywhere as the MPs won't play. Don't forget it was Tory MPs who removed Boris and Truss. The real game will be after the election but Boris and Truss won't be major players.
Sure. This won't actually overthrow Sunak. But the blood letting will be relentless...
I see we're reverting back to the pre-Brexit times now
Get a bloody move on then...
We've heard it before, etc. But it'd be worth one header discussing what the actual impact would be if Boris and Nigel formed a new party - hard to imagine two strong personalities sharing the helm, but it'd certainly be interesting. It's possible that they'd crash and burn, or that they'd mop up the Red Wall instead of Labour, or that they'd displace the Tories as the populist right alternative.
Having said that, I think the trend favours the LibDems, especially if we pull off a victory in Mid Beds. Train loads are going there today.
Had a Labour request to help in specific canvass sessions in all 3 seats yesterday, and both LibDem and Green candidates in Uxbridge are making vocal claims. But I still think that in practice LibDems will dominate the anti-Tory vote in mid-Beds and Labour in Uxbridge, and probably the Yorkshire seat too.
Ladbrokes have Labour at 10/1 on for Uxbridge and the Lib Dems were 3/1 on for Mid Beds. However Ladbrokes have just suspended the Mid Beds market. Some news breaking? Or perhaps my comment about "train loads"?
The Times has done it again. Anyone on here who still denies the lab leak theory is spouting Chinese propaganda. COVID leaked from the Chinese lab and then China, with the help of useful idiots in the West, covered it up and called anyone who disagreed a racist.
Bloody hell.
I'd like to see the underlying report, rather than the The Times's reportage, but this looks like the first genuinely new evidence in about two years.
At the very least it shows the irritating magisterial dismissals we’ve had to put up with from many commentators over 3 years are as misplaced and overconfident as they always seemed.
It may yet turn out that the virus had a natural origin but the evidence for that never looked overwhelming.
The issue is that previous and no doubt future pandemics arose and will arise through natural means. See SARS, MERS etc. So just perfectly possible for Covid to have had a natural origin. It also seems that the WIV was doing so nasty experiments that had the potential to go very wrong. I don’t think this work, excellent though it is, is a slam dunk. Both options are still possible.
As always, moreover, it's the future pandemics that we need to look for. And it's not obvious that HMG has learnt its lesson.
This is a sad indictment of how well Maths has been taught in our schools over the years...
...and I speak as a Maths teacher of 34 years' experience
A poster yesterday (correctly) pointed out that if inflation falls, it could be because certain products are actually falling in price, whilst others are continuing to rise but as inflation is a blended rate, it is possible for certain things to fall in price whilst suffering 5% inflation overall.
That's what I'm clinging to. I refuse to believe nearly half the population are as dumb as Boris Johnson.
Some prices are already falling and have been even with 10% inflation. You’re right, it’s a mix.
Some financial talking heads are forecasting deflation, certainly in the US in a couple of years, due to quantitative tightening there.
Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.
Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.
I see your point, but actually deflation is generally seen as an economically even worse problem than inflation as people defer spending if prices are expected to fall.
In general, price stability not dropping prices is the appropriate macroeconomic aim.
I remember reading quite a lot of economic papers 40 years ago suggesting that the optimum for growth is low inflation which gives a slight incentive to spending now and a disincentive to sitting on savings and cash. My understanding is that the 2% target for the BoE is still based on that proposition.
A few people have suggested that the 2% target is herding - “everyone” targets the consensus number are produces papers in why it is right.
The Times has done it again. Anyone on here who still denies the lab leak theory is spouting Chinese propaganda. COVID leaked from the Chinese lab and then China, with the help of useful idiots in the West, covered it up and called anyone who disagreed a racist.
Bloody hell.
I'd like to see the underlying report, rather than the The Times's reportage, but this looks like the first genuinely new evidence in about two years.
At the very least it shows the irritating magisterial dismissals we’ve had to put up with from many commentators over 3 years are as misplaced and overconfident as they always seemed.
It may yet turn out that the virus had a natural origin but the evidence for that never looked overwhelming.
The issue is that previous and no doubt future pandemics arose and will arise through natural means. See SARS, MERS etc. So just perfectly possible for Covid to have had a natural origin. It also seems that the WIV was doing so nasty experiments that had the potential to go very wrong. I don’t think this work, excellent though it is, is a slam dunk. Both options are still possible.
As always, moreover, it's the future pandemics that we need to look for. And it's not obvious that HMG has learnt its lesson.
The Times has done it again. Anyone on here who still denies the lab leak theory is spouting Chinese propaganda. COVID leaked from the Chinese lab and then China, with the help of useful idiots in the West, covered it up and called anyone who disagreed a racist.
Bloody hell.
I'd like to see the underlying report, rather than the The Times's reportage, but this looks like the first genuinely new evidence in about two years.
At the very least it shows the irritating magisterial dismissals we’ve had to put up with from many commentators over 3 years are as misplaced and overconfident as they always seemed.
It may yet turn out that the virus had a natural origin but the evidence for that never looked overwhelming.
The issue is that previous and no doubt future pandemics arose and will arise through natural means. See SARS, MERS etc. So just perfectly possible for Covid to have had a natural origin. It also seems that the WIV was doing so nasty experiments that had the potential to go very wrong. I don’t think this work, excellent though it is, is a slam dunk. Both options are still possible.
As always, moreover, it's the future pandemics that we need to look for. And it's not obvious that HMG has learnt its lesson.
Or the WHO, which seems more interested in lifestyle issues again, as it was prior to covid.
Not entirely unreasonable. They do affect a lot of people in long term matters. And they also interact with infectious disease - as indeed we saw with covid.
I see we're reverting back to the pre-Brexit times now
Get a bloody move on then...
We've heard it before, etc. But it'd be worth one header discussing what the actual impact would be if Boris and Nigel formed a new party - hard to imagine two strong personalities sharing the helm, but it'd certainly be interesting. It's possible that they'd crash and burn, or that they'd mop up the Red Wall instead of Labour, or that they'd displace the Tories as the populist right alternative.
Yes, we have heard it all before and it rarely comes to pass. Nothing will happen. Farage is just trying to still remain relevant.
I really doubt a reform type party would mop up the red wall. Red wall voters, certainly where I am, are not fiscally conservative at all.
Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.
Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.
I see your point, but actually deflation is generally seen as an economically even worse problem than inflation as people defer spending if prices are expected to fall.
In general, price stability not dropping prices is the appropriate macroeconomic aim.
This is a point I have made about falling house prices and its impact on housebuilding. People like the idea that falling house prices and an increase in housebuilding could go together, but the reality is that when house prices are falling people are less likely to borrow large sums of money to buy premium new build houses, so there would be less demand for this type of housing, so the most probable outcome is that housebuilding also falls.
I think you've got it backwards.
We don't want a fall in prices to lead to an increase in construction.
We want an increase in construction to lead to a fall in prices.
Increased competition absolutely can lead to prices stabilising or falling. And if competition increases, then prices stabilise or fall, then housebuilding falls back, then it will be because the shortage of houses in the system has resolved. Although unless population growth stops entirely, there will always be a need for construction.
There was no let up in the production of various goods that have fallen in price, massively, over the decades.
Half the cost of building work is directly wages. That is half is bricks and roof tiles, half labour. Approximately. But the material themselves have labour inputs. And the materials for the materials.
Some guesses put the ultimate labour portion of a house at 70-80%.
Labour cost is a direct function, these days, of housing costs. The biggest cost for workers is their own housing!
So when house prices actually fall, for a period, labour costs will begin to trend down (assuming a competitive labour market). This in turn will make it cheaper to build houses.
In addition, the U.K. building industry is low productivity, compared to many other countries. Investment in non-exotic machinery - mini cranes and small diggers, say - could halve the work force on a house.
Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.
Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.
I feel he's communicated this really badly.
It’s more fundamental than that - he doesn’t realise that most people don’t understand relative rates of change - for instance they think about speed rather than acceleration, and while inflation is about the acceleration of prices, most people think inflation is about the current price.
One thing Bozo knew was that most people know and understand less Han you do so keep things simple.
I'm not even sure that 'halve inflation' is at all unambiguous in the political context. Is it the total increase in prices after some set date, or the rate of increase, or the differential thereof ...? If the former meaning is taken, then 'halve inflation' could be taken as meaning reducing prices.
The Times has done it again. Anyone on here who still denies the lab leak theory is spouting Chinese propaganda. COVID leaked from the Chinese lab and then China, with the help of useful idiots in the West, covered it up and called anyone who disagreed a racist.
Bloody hell.
I'd like to see the underlying report, rather than the The Times's reportage, but this looks like the first genuinely new evidence in about two years.
At the very least it shows the irritating magisterial dismissals we’ve had to put up with from many commentators over 3 years are as misplaced and overconfident as they always seemed.
It may yet turn out that the virus had a natural origin but the evidence for that never looked overwhelming.
The issue is that previous and no doubt future pandemics arose and will arise through natural means. See SARS, MERS etc. So just perfectly possible for Covid to have had a natural origin. It also seems that the WIV was doing so nasty experiments that had the potential to go very wrong. I don’t think this work, excellent though it is, is a slam dunk. Both options are still possible.
As always, moreover, it's the future pandemics that we need to look for. And it's not obvious that HMG has learnt its lesson.
Or the WHO, which seems more interested in lifestyle issues again, as it was prior to covid.
Not entirely unreasonable. They do affect a lot of people in long term matters. And they also interact with infectious disease - as indeed we saw with covid.
It is when it’s to the exclusion of other matters. Their pandemic preparation and advice was woeful.
This is a sad indictment of how well Maths has been taught in our schools over the years...
...and I speak as a Maths teacher of 34 years' experience
A poster yesterday (correctly) pointed out that if inflation falls, it could be because certain products are actually falling in price, whilst others are continuing to rise but as inflation is a blended rate, it is possible for certain things to fall in price whilst suffering 5% inflation overall.
That's what I'm clinging to. I refuse to believe nearly half the population are as dumb as Boris Johnson.
We need someone to explain to the populace (and the BMA) why RPI is an inappropriate measure of inflation by dint of using an arithmetic mean in the calculation, whilst CPI is more appropriate because it uses a geometric mean.
By the way, I'm spending the next week in Crete, staying with a friend in Asproulianos, near Chania. Any recommendations?
I love the Eastern end of Crete, but you'll need car for that from Chania. So much of the coastline is spectacular, and there's also inland, that it depends what sort of thing you're looking for, really.
Crete is in fact almost like a mini-country, in itself.
The Times has done it again. Anyone on here who still denies the lab leak theory is spouting Chinese propaganda. COVID leaked from the Chinese lab and then China, with the help of useful idiots in the West, covered it up and called anyone who disagreed a racist.
Bloody hell.
I'd like to see the underlying report, rather than the The Times's reportage, but this looks like the first genuinely new evidence in about two years.
At the very least it shows the irritating magisterial dismissals we’ve had to put up with from many commentators over 3 years are as misplaced and overconfident as they always seemed.
It may yet turn out that the virus had a natural origin but the evidence for that never looked overwhelming.
I never really got why some went so strong on dismissal, without hedging.
IIRC Jon Stewart got a bit of stick for being open at least to the idea of lab leak.
Jon Stewart was the first person to really question the official narritive on mainstream television, back in June 2021.
I’m still not sure how much was scripted in advance, and how much he actually got Colbert by surprise, they’re both very experienced improv actors. It was pre-recorded though, so it could have been edited out if the producers had wished.
This is a sad indictment of how well Maths has been taught in our schools over the years...
...and I speak as a Maths teacher of 34 years' experience
A poster yesterday (correctly) pointed out that if inflation falls, it could be because certain products are actually falling in price, whilst others are continuing to rise but as inflation is a blended rate, it is possible for certain things to fall in price whilst suffering 5% inflation overall.
That's what I'm clinging to. I refuse to believe nearly half the population are as dumb as Boris Johnson.
Some prices are already falling and have been even with 10% inflation. You’re right, it’s a mix.
Some financial talking heads are forecasting deflation, certainly in the US in a couple of years, due to quantitative tightening there.
That will be interesting.
The price of petrol and diesel is down 20% year-on-year. The commodity that, more than any other, feeds into prices more generally.
By the way, I'm spending the next week in Crete, staying with a friend in Asproulianos, near Chania. Any recommendations?
Probably treat daytime as being from 4am to 11am, and stay indoors for the rest !
That's what I'm doing, and it's only hitting 28-30C here in the Midlands.
Do they do the rooftop dining in Crete the way they do in some parts of Rhodes? Remember coming down, late, from the acropolis of Lindos - the roofs of the town were a sea of lights.
Most people will get the good or bad news from the BBC. Inflation up or down. They don’t know what that means, but it is good or bad.
Boris & Co. are finished. Throwing themselves out of Parliament is not the start of anything. Since they won’t be able to get back in, even under a different party banner. The fade to irrelevance will be quite sharp, I think. How many times has Boris intervened on *policy* since he stepped down as PM?
By the way, I'm spending the next week in Crete, staying with a friend in Asproulianos, near Chania. Any recommendations?
I love the Eastern end of Crete, but you'll need car for that from Chania. So much of the coastline is spectacular, and there's also inland, that it depends what sort of thing you're looking for, really.
Crete is in fact almost like a mini-country, in itself.
We'll have a hired car - my friend has a house there and knows the ropes, so as you say it's mostly about making clear what I'd like to see. I'm more into something interesting (does Knossos give an intriguing idea of the past? Is there a good military museum showing the WW2 battle of Crete?), less into scenery per se, though I imagine lying round on beaches will be part of it. Temperatures at present are lower than here (25-26) though rising later in the week.
By the way, I'm spending the next week in Crete, staying with a friend in Asproulianos, near Chania. Any recommendations?
Probably treat daytime as being from 4am to 11am, and stay indoors for the rest !
That's what I'm doing, and it's only hitting 28-30C here in the Midlands.
Do they do the rooftop dining in Crete the way they do in some parts of Rhodes? Remember coming down, late, from the acropolis of Lindos - the roofs of the town were a sea of lights.
Indeed they do, in fact even the Cretans in Athens are known for this.
There's a network of wealthy Cretan families who live in the marina and coastal resort-type areas of Athens, and their areas of apartment rooftops in Vouliagmeni and Kavouri are known for coming alive in summer, even visible from Piraeus.
The Green Party could lose their only seat in Parliament at the next general election, according to recent polling.
According to a poll for Best for Britain, Brighton Pavilion would elect a Labour MP for the first time since 2010 if an election was held tomorrow.
The poll put Labour support in the constituency at 32.7 per cent, up almost 10 per cent from their result in the last general election.
However, support for the Greens is forecast to crater; from 57.2 per cent at the 2019 election to just 28.4 per cent - a staggering 28.8 per cent drop.
Interesting that poll still predicts no seats for the Lib Dems in an area where they used to be pretty strong.
The LibDems could very easily have a pretty shitty 2024.
And, no, I don't mean they won't gain seats. I'm confident they'll be up on 2019. But it doesn't take much for dreams of 50 seats to turn into a mushy 18 or 19.
Good morning, one and all.
The target for the Lib Dems must be one more seat than the Scottish nationalists. That way, they’ll get a voice in parliament, as the third party.
Current EMA into Electoral Calculus with tactical voting puts the Lib Dems on 28 seats and the SNP on 26.
That would be quite satisfactory! I’m surprised they think the Greens will retain one seat, though.
Electoral Calculus doesn't know the recent local details of Brighton Pavillion and Caroline Lucas's retirement. It's a broad brush, clever algorithmic approach with swings and roundabouts. And 12 months is a long time in politics!
Having said that, I think the trend favours the LibDems, especially if we pull off a victory in Mid Beds. Train loads are going there today.
Shouldn't that be rail replacement bus loads? It is a Sunday, after all.
Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.
Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.
I see your point, but actually deflation is generally seen as an economically even worse problem than inflation as people defer spending if prices are expected to fall.
In general, price stability not dropping prices is the appropriate macroeconomic aim.
This is a point I have made about falling house prices and its impact on housebuilding. People like the idea that falling house prices and an increase in housebuilding could go together, but the reality is that when house prices are falling people are less likely to borrow large sums of money to buy premium new build houses, so there would be less demand for this type of housing, so the most probable outcome is that housebuilding also falls.
I think you've got it backwards.
We don't want a fall in prices to lead to an increase in construction.
We want an increase in construction to lead to a fall in prices.
Increased competition absolutely can lead to prices stabilising or falling. And if competition increases, then prices stabilise or fall, then housebuilding falls back, then it will be because the shortage of houses in the system has resolved. Although unless population growth stops entirely, there will always be a need for construction.
From what I am seeing at the moment in the south east the most common form of project is housing associations accessing grant money from Homes England to build shared ownership and social housing - 100+ unit schemes coming forward on this basis, on sites where there there only technically needs to be 35% affordable housing to comply with policy. It is actually turning in to a problem for Council's because affordable housing is exempt from providing Community Infrastructure Levy payments, so no money for bus services, healthcare, schools etc. A Head of Planning complained that a single 100 unit scheme cost the Council £3million in lost infrastructure revenue.
So it seems that private developers may be being outbid by housing associations on development land as 'affordable' housing is currently more viable than private housing. Developers are not therefore bringing forward open market development because of low demand (due to high interest rates and falling prices) and high build costs.
So you can't just build more in the way that you are imagining, it won't happen unless you can also reset interest rates to 0%, find a way of decreasing build costs, and shut down grant to housing associations (and consequently reduce the amount of affordable housing being delivered).
I am pretty sure that a lot of companies are jacking up prices and using general reports of inflation to hide behind. The New Statesman had a very fine article on it last week and termed the phenomenon Greedflation.
By the way, I'm spending the next week in Crete, staying with a friend in Asproulianos, near Chania. Any recommendations?
I love the Eastern end of Crete, but you'll need car for that from Chania. So much of the coastline is spectacular, and there's also inland, that it depends what sort of thing you're looking for, really.
Crete is in fact almost like a mini-country, in itself.
We'll have a hired car - my friend has a house there and knows the ropes, so as you say it's mostly about making clear what I'd like to see. I'm more into something interesting (does Knossos give an intriguing idea of the past? Is there a good military museum showing the WW2 battle of Crete?), less into scenery per se, though I imagine lying round on beaches will be part of it. Temperatures at present are lower than here (25-26) though rising later in the week.
Would you be interested in the area where Patrick Leigh Fermor did his famous derring-do ? I think there's a monument somewhere there.
By the way, I'm spending the next week in Crete, staying with a friend in Asproulianos, near Chania. Any recommendations?
Hire a trail bike, spend a day looping round the east of Crete, fall off on a high mountain road and badly scrape your knee, get nipped by a psychotic dog in a deserted vilage because you didn't accelerate away fast enough, worry about having rabies for the next week - happy days!
Seriously, the Samaria Gorge walk is good if you like a bit of light hiking, not that far from Chania either.
I am pretty sure that a lot of companies are jacking up prices and using general reports of inflation to hide behind. The New Statesman had a very fine article on it last week and termed the phenomenon Greedflation.
That reminds me of US lefties claiming that inflation under the Biden Presidency wasn’t “real” inflation and companies didn’t have to put up prices. While celebrating pay increases.
There is an element of “reset” - in recent years, suppliers to supermarkets were often squeezed to breaking point. They are now simply refusing to supply some items at hyper low prices.
By the way, I'm spending the next week in Crete, staying with a friend in Asproulianos, near Chania. Any recommendations?
I love the Eastern end of Crete, but you'll need car for that from Chania. So much of the coastline is spectacular, and there's also inland, that it depends what sort of thing you're looking for, really.
Crete is in fact almost like a mini-country, in itself.
We'll have a hired car - my friend has a house there and knows the ropes, so as you say it's mostly about making clear what I'd like to see. I'm more into something interesting (does Knossos give an intriguing idea of the past? Is there a good military museum showing the WW2 battle of Crete?), less into scenery per se, though I imagine lying round on beaches will be part of it. Temperatures at present are lower than here (25-26) though rising later in the week.
I found Knossos to be a complete waste of time but I'd been to Pompeii the month before so that may have been the reason.
In terms of beaches, the best beach in probably all of Europe is in Crete, Balos lagoon, but it needs a boat trip to get there. Worth it.
Horrible numbers for the Tories and Sunak everywhere you look in this Lord Ashcroft polling in today’s Mail on Sunday. Notable that climate change is ranked above both immigration and tax as a key issue.
Horrible numbers for the Tories and Sunak everywhere you look in this Lord Ashcroft polling in today’s Mail on Sunday. Notable that climate change is ranked above both immigration and tax as a key issue.
Sunak seems to be offering Cameronism without the liberal side and Johnsonism without the boosterism, it is an ideology intended to preserve seats, not win them
Sunak seems to be offering Cameronism without the liberal side and Johnsonism without the boosterism, it is an ideology intended to preserve seats, not win them
I'll tell you who I blame for all this; Sunak's schoolmates. They should have done the right thing and bullied the exuberance and self-confidence out of him. He should have been called "Fishy Bumcrack" and had his PE kit hurled into the nearest body of water at every opportunity. We are all paying the price for their laxity.
I am pretty sure that a lot of companies are jacking up prices and using general reports of inflation to hide behind. The New Statesman had a very fine article on it last week and termed the phenomenon Greedflation.
We bought a 3 year old car (1.5 l ICE, 38 MPG) from a main dealer in September 2020 with a 0% loan, ran it for about 8000 miles over 3 years, and then took it to webuyanycar last week with several panels damaged and scratches over the bodywork, and they paid us the same price as we paid for it.
I think that this is because of environmental regulation and the inflation will just keep going on and on. I just bought a new larger hybrid (same age), and funded the difference with a bank loan (this time at 5%) because I think that the same thing will happen again over the next 3 years. We are doing higher mileage and it is doing 65 mpg so it is already more economical than our last car, the fuel saving alone effectively covers up the cost of repaying the loan.
This example serves to demonstrate that a) the inflation is real but b) there are ways around it.
I would like to highlight one question from Ashcroft that I think means the Tories are in a potential death spiral.
Which of the following comes closest to your view?
Sir Keir Starmer and Labour would do a good job governing Britain - 24% Sir Keir Starmer and Labour might not do a good job but they can hard be worse than the Government we have now - 60%
It has taken 13 years but the public seems to have concluded change is not to be scared of. Sunak is going to have a big task turning that around with so much to defend. How does he combat this?
Sunak seems to be offering Cameronism without the liberal side and Johnsonism without the boosterism, it is an ideology intended to preserve seats, not win them
I'll tell you who I blame for all this; Sunak's schoolmates. They should have done the right thing and bullied the exuberance and self-confidence out of him. He should have been called "Fishy Bumcrack" and had his PE kit hurled into the nearest body of water at every opportunity. We are all paying the price for their laxity.
Joxley @Mr_John_Oxley This is part of the politics-as-parlour-game perspective that shows why we got into this mess. Polticians and observers convinced that outcomes don't matter, almost willing themselves that the levers are attached to nothing.
Ian Silvera, Future News @ianjsilvera Former Vanity Fair editor Graydon Carter had a point: “I love British politics because the stakes are so low, but the bitterness and infighting are so high.” 9:30 AM · Jun 11, 2023
On housing, there is a development going up in Leeds of 665 apartments that are not available to buy. Rental only. Starting from £1100 pcm for a one bed. Presumably aimed at young professionals working in the city centre.
Is this now a common thing? Developers becoming mass landlords?
Sunak seems to be offering Cameronism without the liberal side and Johnsonism without the boosterism, it is an ideology intended to preserve seats, not win them
I'll tell you who I blame for all this; Sunak's schoolmates. They should have done the right thing and bullied the exuberance and self-confidence out of him. He should have been called "Fishy Bumcrack" and had his PE kit hurled into the nearest body of water at every opportunity. We are all paying the price for their laxity.
He probably would have been completely overlooked, in both ways, as I guess he was a bit of an irrelevant swot but harmless. The types who were bullied were the cocky back-chatting twats who hadn’t quite realised they weren’t the senior big boys at prep school anymore and needed reminding of their new status at the bottom of the pile.
He never came across my radar so wouldn’t have been of any note and so not bullied.
Sunak seems to be offering Cameronism without the liberal side and Johnsonism without the boosterism, it is an ideology intended to preserve seats, not win them
I'll tell you who I blame for all this; Sunak's schoolmates. They should have done the right thing and bullied the exuberance and self-confidence out of him. He should have been called "Fishy Bumcrack" and had his PE kit hurled into the nearest body of water at every opportunity. We are all paying the price for their laxity.
He probably would have been completely overlooked, in both ways, as I guess he was a bit of an irrelevant swot but harmless. The types who were bullied were the cocky back-chatting twats who hadn’t quite realised they weren’t the senior big boys at prep school anymore and needed reminding of their new status at the bottom of the pile.
He never came across my radar so wouldn’t have been of any note and so not bullied.
I miss boarding school. It was like Kamp Krusty but with a lot of sport.
On housing, there is a development going up in Leeds of 665 apartments that are not available to buy. Rental only. Starting from £1100 pcm for a one bed. Presumably aimed at young professionals working in the city centre.
Is this now a common thing? Developers becoming mass landlords?
My granddaughter has just given up her one bedroom apartment in Leeds as she concludes her second year at Leeds University, and is travelling to Milan in August to act as a translator for a law firm before returning to Leeds for her final year
Apols for meandering and going miles off politics or betting but it is Sunday morning and therefore on the subject of skimming stones (on water):
My eye was just caught by an article on this because it’s something I both love doing (can happily spend hours at a time) and am rather good at (the 2 things being related, I guess; if I wasn’t good at it I wouldn’t put those hours in when I could be doing something else). It’s a passion that incubated in very early boyhood and has stayed with me right through to today when I’m 62. The quiet contentment of honed repetitive action in a tranquil setting interspersed with the occasional buzz of the one that really takes off, bouncing away miles across the water into the far horizon. Bit like fishing perhaps. People who are into that probably feel the same deep pleasure when they break out the rod and tackle. Whatever, skimming stones has always been a part of my life and the appeal has never dimmed. I do it whenever I get the chance.
And the point is, turns out it’s a sport! A recognized one with championships held in various places around the country, prizes, rules, spectators, the lot. I’ve been at a bit of a loose end for a while now, lacking structure and purpose, needing a challenge, that sense of striving leading to genuine achievement, hence why this article interested me sufficiently to mention on here. So, newsflash: I’m thinking of entering the UK stone skimming championships. More than that, I’m resolved to. I just need to work out how I can practice in Hampstead. The bathing ponds on the Heath will not welcome it. I could be arrested even for that. I need to find somewhere else. All sensible suggestions welcome.
Something used to cost £100. It now costs £110 due to inflation. Rishi Rich says that he will halve inflation. We are meant to feel grateful when the price increases to £115.50.
Get the price down to £105 if you want public gratitude, PM.
I feel he's communicated this really badly.
It’s more fundamental than that - he doesn’t realise that most people don’t understand relative rates of change - for instance they think about speed rather than acceleration, and while inflation is about the acceleration of prices, most people think inflation is about the current price.
One thing Bozo knew was that most people know and understand less Han you do so keep things simple.
There are whole A Level Physics exam questions based on the difference between position, velocity and acceleration; even people who can crunch the numbers accurately often fall down on the intuition of what they mean.
And yes, Boris had a much more accurate instinct for what people did and didn't comprehend. Like Mr Ripley, he was talented. Shame he used his talents for evil and self aggrandisement.
I see we're reverting back to the pre-Brexit times now
Get a bloody move on then...
So Cameron wagered the nation with an EU "in-out" Referendum to save the Conservative Party from civil war. He lost the nation's shirt in the process and nearly a decade on the Conservative Party remains on the cusp of civil war.
The thread that trails through this whole saga like a ravenous tapeworm is A.B.D.(P) Johnson
On housing, there is a development going up in Leeds of 665 apartments that are not available to buy. Rental only. Starting from £1100 pcm for a one bed. Presumably aimed at young professionals working in the city centre.
Is this now a common thing? Developers becoming mass landlords?
In general, it would be an investor like a pension fund who ends up buying the development, rather than remaining with the developer itself. It's become more common in an era when traditional long-term investments were paying rates on the floor.
Looking up, and refreshing my memory for Nick's question on his tour, I see some of the historical areas where Patrick Leigh Fermor fought are, even for people who are not that crazy for scenery, in some of the spectacular areas of Crete, or in fact, Greece in general - Mount Psiloritis, about the highest in the island, and the area around there, including the starker, but still beautiful, Mount Kedros, too :
The advantage of all this is that it's quite near Heraklion and Knossos, for the ancient sites. The museum of the Cretan Resistance and World War II is in Heraklion, and the monument for Leigh Fermor and Greeks who fought with him is about 20 mins drive outside the town, I think. Heraklion has suffered some of the same fate as Athens in the '50s and '60s, with neoclassical beauties being replaced by apartment breeze-blocks, but itself has a lot of charming and often for some reason disportionately beautiful people around there. You could drive on the East, some of which is truly really wonderful, too, spectacular and still relatively unspoilt, with friendly locals.
Sunak seems to be offering Cameronism without the liberal side and Johnsonism without the boosterism, it is an ideology intended to preserve seats, not win them
It's fairly undiluted intellectual dry Conservatism. The sort of thing Peter Lilley did, Nigel Lawson before he got cocky, John Redwood before he lost touch with reality.
Nothing inherently wrong with it, though buying off the Red Wall with harsh immigration rhetoric is a bit cynical. But like Radio 3, it's not going to work for a big enough market.
Comments
In general, price stability not dropping prices is the appropriate macroeconomic aim.
That's what I'm clinging to. I refuse to believe nearly half the population are as dumb as Boris Johnson.
OTOH he has no chance whatsoever of achieving his debt goal:
"We will make sure our national debt is falling so that we can secure the future of public services.".
I bet he still claims success though, if the deficit is reducing.
Falling inflation ≠ falling prices.
Falling deficit ≠ falling debt.
Boris is history, he's gone, finished, over.
Farage is even more history. He could never win a seat to Parliament even before Brexit. Now he's a total fart in the wind.
Yes, you're right that innovation and competition might push the price level of some particular products and services down over time. But that isn't what deflation means economically.
Falling debt as a percentage of GDP absolutely is.
In more important news, a great day for British cycling yesterday. Rachel Atherton took the win in the Lenzerheide Women's Elite DH, at 35 and after taking time off to have a baby, and 18 year old Jordan Williams grabbed top spot in his first ever Elite race.
I actually considered placing a bet on Atherton, but couldn't find anywhere to place it!
And housing costs weren’t included in inflation. Because housing costs have no influence* on people’s spending habits or the economy.
*The original reason for not including housing costs was that inflation was the measure to set interest rates - to control inflation. Putting up interest rates would increase inflation (if housing costs are included) which result in a feedback loop.
He has played around with debt though. What I think he means is that debt would be falling as a share of GDP, that is the deficit (increase in debt) would be less than growth. It is deliberately misleading and is simply not going to happen in any event.
36s
The cowardice of Boris Johnson
https://twitter.com/andrewrawnsley/status/1667816785406459905
We'd get constant talk of Tory MPs flirting with leaving the party. Granted, we did eventually get a few, but seriously what would be the point now? Brexit has been achieved, and if many Tories are unhappy about how it is going and wary of backsliding then helping the Tories lose even more by joining Farage's mob isn't going to help. And what the heck would lead so many of them to go to Reform anyway, what does Reform stand for that the Tories do not?
Just another attempt to stay in the past rather than have our politics move on - Parliament is full of nostalgists though, so I guess we cannot discount the idea entirely.
We don't want a fall in prices to lead to an increase in construction.
We want an increase in construction to lead to a fall in prices.
Increased competition absolutely can lead to prices stabilising or falling. And if competition increases, then prices stabilise or fall, then housebuilding falls back, then it will be because the shortage of houses in the system has resolved. Although unless population growth stops entirely, there will always be a need for construction.
One thing Bozo knew was that most people know and understand less Han you do so keep things simple.
They will insist the economy is on the mend, everyone is better off and if you are not then that must be YOUR fault.
https://twitter.com/uk_sf_writer/status/1667810058292297728
If Sir Nigel Farage were to ride in now on his chariot and with his Drake moustache, and adding the opposite effect of the 2019 election, with a division in the Tory vote rather than an unofficial pact as he had then with the Brexit Party, that really would be the icing on the cake for all the Opposition parties.
Central banks squeezed inflation - into house prices.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/10/uk-recklessly-exposed-to-new-pandemics-expert-warns
Some financial talking heads are forecasting deflation, certainly in the US in a couple of years, due to quantitative tightening there.
That will be interesting.
I really doubt a reform type party would mop up the red wall. Red wall voters, certainly where I am, are not fiscally conservative at all.
You are literally an industrialist
Half the cost of building work is directly wages. That is half is bricks and roof tiles, half labour. Approximately. But the material themselves have labour inputs. And the materials for the materials.
Some guesses put the ultimate labour portion of a house at 70-80%.
Labour cost is a direct function, these days, of housing costs. The biggest cost for workers is their own housing!
So when house prices actually fall, for a period, labour costs will begin to trend down (assuming a competitive labour market). This in turn will make it cheaper to build houses.
In addition, the U.K. building industry is low productivity, compared to many other countries. Investment in non-exotic machinery - mini cranes and small diggers, say - could halve the work force on a house.
a) Should London not have MPs?
b) How would Welwyn Hatfield be doing without London? Is it richer or poorer than the equivalent commuter towns near, say, Plymouth or Sunderland?
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1667823797242585090
As opposed to the Prime Minister, the Honourable Member for non-doms
Volunteers?
Crete is in fact almost like a mini-country, in itself.
That's what I'm doing, and it's only hitting 28-30C here in the Midlands.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=sSfejgwbDQ8
I’m still not sure how much was scripted in advance, and how much he actually got Colbert by surprise, they’re both very experienced improv actors. It was pre-recorded though, so it could have been edited out if the producers had wished.
https://www.racfoundation.org/data/uk-pump-prices-over-time
Most people will get the good or bad news from the BBC. Inflation up or down. They don’t know what that means, but it is good or bad.
Boris & Co. are finished. Throwing themselves out of Parliament is not the start of anything. Since they won’t be able to get back in, even under a different party banner. The fade to irrelevance will be quite sharp, I think. How many times has Boris intervened on *policy* since he stepped down as PM?
There's a network of wealthy Cretan families who live in the marina and coastal resort-type areas of Athens, and their areas of apartment rooftops in Vouliagmeni and Kavouri are known for coming alive in summer, even visible from Piraeus.
So it seems that private developers may be being outbid by housing associations on development land as 'affordable' housing is currently more viable than private housing. Developers are not therefore bringing forward open market development because of low demand (due to high interest rates and falling prices) and high build costs.
So you can't just build more in the way that you are imagining, it won't happen unless you can also reset interest rates to 0%, find a way of decreasing build costs, and shut down grant to housing associations (and consequently reduce the amount of affordable housing being delivered).
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2023/05/age-greedflation-rising-prices-inflation-corporate-greed
I'll have a look-up on it an get back,
Indeed I called it out after the first post, it was so obvious Putin himself could have been directly posting
Maybe he was !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Seriously, the Samaria Gorge walk is good if you like a bit of light hiking, not that far from Chania either.
There is an element of “reset” - in recent years, suppliers to supermarkets were often squeezed to breaking point. They are now simply refusing to supply some items at hyper low prices.
Yes in the short term it will cause party turmoil but he needs to show he’s his own man and the party has to move on from Johnson.
He won’t because he isn’t a particularly strong or tactical leader IMHO.
In terms of beaches, the best beach in probably all of Europe is in Crete, Balos lagoon, but it needs a boat trip to get there. Worth it.
https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1667826506129723393?s=46&t=rw5lNVUgmRPVyKpxfV_pPQ
At worst it seems net "meh", as opposed to active dislike.
I think that this is because of environmental regulation and the inflation will just keep going on and on. I just bought a new larger hybrid (same age), and funded the difference with a bank loan (this time at 5%) because I think that the same thing will happen again over the next 3 years. We are doing higher mileage and it is doing 65 mpg so it is already more economical than our last car, the fuel saving alone effectively covers up the cost of repaying the loan.
This example serves to demonstrate that a) the inflation is real but b) there are ways around it.
Which of the following comes closest to your view?
Sir Keir Starmer and Labour would do a good job governing Britain - 24%
Sir Keir Starmer and Labour might not do a good job but they can hard be worse than the Government we have now - 60%
It has taken 13 years but the public seems to have concluded change is not to be scared of. Sunak is going to have a big task turning that around with so much to defend. How does he combat this?
@Mr_John_Oxley
This is part of the politics-as-parlour-game perspective that shows why we got into this mess. Polticians and observers convinced that outcomes don't matter, almost willing themselves that the levers are attached to nothing.
Ian Silvera, Future News
@ianjsilvera
Former Vanity Fair editor Graydon Carter had a point: “I love British politics because the stakes are so low, but the bitterness and infighting are so high.”
9:30 AM · Jun 11, 2023
https://twitter.com/Mr_John_Oxley/status/1667811648109723648
Is this now a common thing? Developers becoming mass landlords?
He never came across my radar so wouldn’t have been of any note and so not bullied.
She paid £600 per month on 12 month lease
My eye was just caught by an article on this because it’s something I both love doing (can happily spend hours at a time) and am rather good at (the 2 things being related, I guess; if I wasn’t good at it I wouldn’t put those hours in when I could be doing something else). It’s a passion that incubated in very early boyhood and has stayed with me right through to today when I’m 62. The quiet contentment of honed repetitive action in a tranquil setting interspersed with the occasional buzz of the one that really takes off, bouncing away miles across the water into the far horizon. Bit like fishing perhaps. People who are into that probably feel the same deep pleasure when they break out the rod and tackle. Whatever, skimming stones has always been a part of my life and the appeal has never dimmed. I do it whenever I get the chance.
And the point is, turns out it’s a sport! A recognized one with championships held in various places around the country, prizes, rules, spectators, the lot. I’ve been at a bit of a loose end for a while now, lacking structure and purpose, needing a challenge, that sense of striving leading to genuine achievement, hence why this article interested me sufficiently to mention on here. So, newsflash: I’m thinking of entering the UK stone skimming championships. More than that, I’m resolved to. I just need to work out how I can practice in Hampstead. The bathing ponds on the Heath will not welcome it. I could be arrested even for that. I need to find somewhere else. All sensible suggestions welcome.
He is most likely to be PM next year
However, what he and labour does, especially with the dire economic situation once in office is another matter that only time will tell
And yes, Boris had a much more accurate instinct for what people did and didn't comprehend. Like Mr Ripley, he was talented. Shame he used his talents for evil and self aggrandisement.
The thread that trails through this whole saga like a ravenous tapeworm is A.B.D.(P) Johnson
‘He does divide opinion neatly between those who don’t like him and those who have never met him!’
Michael Buerk reacts to the resignation of Boris Johnson.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Ida_(Crete)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Kedros
The advantage of all this is that it's quite near Heraklion and Knossos, for the ancient sites. The museum of the Cretan Resistance and World War II is in Heraklion, and the monument for Leigh Fermor and Greeks who fought with him is about 20 mins drive outside the town, I think. Heraklion has suffered some of the same fate as Athens in the '50s and '60s, with neoclassical beauties being replaced by apartment breeze-blocks, but itself has a lot of charming and often for some reason disportionately beautiful people around there. You could drive on the East, some of which is truly really wonderful, too, spectacular and still relatively unspoilt, with friendly locals.
Nothing inherently wrong with it, though buying off the Red Wall with harsh immigration rhetoric is a bit cynical. But like Radio 3, it's not going to work for a big enough market.