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This bodes ill for Boris Johnson – politicalbetting.com

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  • sladeslade Posts: 2,023
    LD hold in Wiltshire. Good turnout and 2 t0 1 victory.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    edited June 2023

    Excalibur said:

    Yokes said:

    Johnson was yesterdays man from the moment he was ousted. The idea he was coming back at any point was fanciful. Too many people are done with the circus. On that basis I think Trump wont win either.

    Ukraine: With the suggestion that the Ukrainians are mouting a frontal assault on Russian lines, though its scale is not yet clear, south and south east of Zaporizhzhia, none of this will come as a surprise to the Russians. This direction of attack has long been seen as the most likely. It could be weeks before we get a decisive result but its fair to say the Ukrainians face notable challenges.

    Still a surprising lack of Russian tactical aviation in all this. One area of supposed significant numerical advantage and yet unfocussed and lacking in scale.

    From what i hear sadly the ukrainian assaults are going very poorly with many men lost.

    CNN: AFU suffered heavy losses in heavy equipment and soldiers, facing stronger than expected resistance from Russian troops One of the US officials called CNN losses, including American APCs MRAP, "significant". According to officials, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to push back part of the Russian forces in the Bakhmut region, but in the south of Ukraine, Russians armed with anti-tank missiles, grenades and mortars put up “fierce resistance”, breaking into defensive lines, which in some areas have several levels of depth and protected by minefields, which caused heavy damage to Ukrainian armored vehicles.

    https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1666837336527708161?s=20
    Welcome Excalibur! As you probably already know from reading the blog before deciding to post, I lady boss this site. Sometimes I allow them to post political betting, but it’s mostly a piggy luv site.

    Do you like piggies? I bloody love them! 🥰


    Where’s the apple sauce?

    {fires up the BBQ}
    There’s always one isn’t there, every time I post a piggy. 🙄


  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29
    Robert Kennedy Jr and Jordan Peterson on the conflict in Ukraine: The Russians have long offered to end the conflict, they wanted guarantees of Ukraine's neutrality and that it would not join NATO - we refused. The Russians have always honoured their own commitments, such as withdrawing troops from East Germany after the collapse of the USSR. We have often cheated them. We spent vast sums of money to overthrow the democratically elected President Yanukovych in 2014".

    https://twitter.com/DAVID_STOIC1/status/1666870656577724418?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    With regard to the dam always ask cui bono. Whatcwould be the incentive for russia to destroy the dam and ruin the positions of many of its troops. Why would they do that.

    Because of the overriding principle of Russian military strategy -

    When confronted with a choice, do the most stupid self harming thing possible. Preferably one that makes you look like a petulant child.
    Sorry i defer to your wisdom on russian military strategy oh great one.
    Nice to be appreciated.

    My full title in Rear Admiral General (Commanding) of the 116th Chairborne Hussars.

    Oh Great One is just for friends.
    How will you feel if the ukrainian counter offensive ends in humiliation for ukraine. It wont feel good will it.
    What Russia needs, to beat Ukraine, is a leader whose Mighty Weapons actually… work.
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29
    Kennedy jr as a presidential candidate now sounding very interesting.
  • .

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a kind of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Yes, Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin, just like Germany, and he was President of the United States of America for four years.

    During that time, the United Kingdom, under different Prime Ministers, never once wavered in its support for Ukraine.

    So the UK is not some vanguard or unthinking automaton led by America. We have our own independent policy, which has been consistent regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office, and indeed consistent across multiple occupants of Downing Street too.

    The choice isn't between American-policy and more risk-averse European nations, the UK has been more forthright and maximalist than both American and other western European nations. Which is what can happen when you make your own independent policy. No requirement to be either American or European, we're British and we're more maximalist and more supportive and more consistent than both. We're also to be frank right, and both Washington and Berlin have been coming around to our viewpoint.

    Eastern European nations like Poland, Estonia etc (as @Cicero has often said) have been more in line with our thinking than Berlin's or Trump-era Washington's too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,836
    edited June 2023
    Thursday by-election
    Tisbury (Wiltshire)
    LD Hold

    LD 1028 (67%) up 19.4%
    Con 507 (33%) down 0.8%

    No Green as previous.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Excalibur said:

    Kennedy jr as a presidential candidate now sounding very interesting.

    He’s a bit like Piers Corbyn. Only infinitely sillier. Because he takes himself way too seriously.
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29

    .

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a kind of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Yes, Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin, just like Germany, and he was President of the United States of America for four years.

    During that time, the United Kingdom, under different Prime Ministers, never once wavered in its support for Ukraine.

    So the UK is not some vanguard or unthinking automaton led by America. We have our own independent policy, which has been consistent regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office, and indeed consistent across multiple occupants of Downing Street too.

    The choice isn't between American-policy and more risk-averse European nations, the UK has been more forthright and maximalist than both American and other western European nations. Which is what can happen when you make your own independent policy. No requirement to be either American or European, we're British and we're more maximalist and more supportive and more consistent than both. We're also to be frank right, and both Washington and Berlin have been coming around to our viewpoint.

    Eastern European nations like Poland, Estonia etc (as @Cicero has often said) have been more in line with our thinking than Berlin's or Trump-era Washington's too.
    Uk support on its own wouldnt help ukraine much though.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,825
    edited June 2023
    Excalibur said:

    Robert Kennedy Jr and Jordan Peterson on the conflict in Ukraine: The Russians have long offered to end the conflict, they wanted guarantees of Ukraine's neutrality and that it would not join NATO - we refused. The Russians have always honoured their own commitments, such as withdrawing troops from East Germany after the collapse of the USSR. We have often cheated them. We spent vast sums of money to overthrow the democratically elected President Yanukovych in 2014".

    https://twitter.com/DAVID_STOIC1/status/1666870656577724418?s=20

    😂

    Spread bet on how long before 🔨 ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,836

    Excalibur said:

    Robert Kennedy Jr and Jordan Peterson on the conflict in Ukraine: The Russians have long offered to end the conflict, they wanted guarantees of Ukraine's neutrality and that it would not join NATO - we refused. The Russians have always honoured their own commitments, such as withdrawing troops from East Germany after the collapse of the USSR. We have often cheated them. We spent vast sums of money to overthrow the democratically elected President Yanukovych in 2014".

    https://twitter.com/DAVID_STOIC1/status/1666870656577724418?s=20

    😂

    Spread bet on how long before 🔨 ?
    Not soon enough.
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    With regard to the dam always ask cui bono. Whatcwould be the incentive for russia to destroy the dam and ruin the positions of many of its troops. Why would they do that.

    Because of the overriding principle of Russian military strategy -

    When confronted with a choice, do the most stupid self harming thing possible. Preferably one that makes you look like a petulant child.
    Sorry i defer to your wisdom on russian military strategy oh great one.
    Nice to be appreciated.

    My full title in Rear Admiral General (Commanding) of the 116th Chairborne Hussars.

    Oh Great One is just for friends.
    How will you feel if the ukrainian counter offensive ends in humiliation for ukraine. It wont feel good will it.
    What Russia needs, to beat Ukraine, is a leader whose Mighty Weapons actually… work.
    I love your snark when your losing the argument. Humiliation for the west coming in 3..2..1
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Excalibur said:

    .

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a kind of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Yes, Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin, just like Germany, and he was President of the United States of America for four years.

    During that time, the United Kingdom, under different Prime Ministers, never once wavered in its support for Ukraine.

    So the UK is not some vanguard or unthinking automaton led by America. We have our own independent policy, which has been consistent regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office, and indeed consistent across multiple occupants of Downing Street too.

    The choice isn't between American-policy and more risk-averse European nations, the UK has been more forthright and maximalist than both American and other western European nations. Which is what can happen when you make your own independent policy. No requirement to be either American or European, we're British and we're more maximalist and more supportive and more consistent than both. We're also to be frank right, and both Washington and Berlin have been coming around to our viewpoint.

    Eastern European nations like Poland, Estonia etc (as @Cicero has often said) have been more in line with our thinking than Berlin's or Trump-era Washington's too.
    Uk support on its own wouldnt help ukraine much though.
    Well, British weapons have a Super Secret advantage over Russian weapons.
  • Excalibur said:

    .

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a kind of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Yes, Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin, just like Germany, and he was President of the United States of America for four years.

    During that time, the United Kingdom, under different Prime Ministers, never once wavered in its support for Ukraine.

    So the UK is not some vanguard or unthinking automaton led by America. We have our own independent policy, which has been consistent regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office, and indeed consistent across multiple occupants of Downing Street too.

    The choice isn't between American-policy and more risk-averse European nations, the UK has been more forthright and maximalist than both American and other western European nations. Which is what can happen when you make your own independent policy. No requirement to be either American or European, we're British and we're more maximalist and more supportive and more consistent than both. We're also to be frank right, and both Washington and Berlin have been coming around to our viewpoint.

    Eastern European nations like Poland, Estonia etc (as @Cicero has often said) have been more in line with our thinking than Berlin's or Trump-era Washington's too.
    Uk support on its own wouldnt help ukraine much though.
    Actually it would, you guys might have lost the war even if it were just the UK supporting Ukraine.

    Thankfully though the UK isn't on its own supporting Ukraine. You're on your own though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    With regard to the dam always ask cui bono. Whatcwould be the incentive for russia to destroy the dam and ruin the positions of many of its troops. Why would they do that.

    Because of the overriding principle of Russian military strategy -

    When confronted with a choice, do the most stupid self harming thing possible. Preferably one that makes you look like a petulant child.
    Sorry i defer to your wisdom on russian military strategy oh great one.
    Nice to be appreciated.

    My full title in Rear Admiral General (Commanding) of the 116th Chairborne Hussars.

    Oh Great One is just for friends.
    How will you feel if the ukrainian counter offensive ends in humiliation for ukraine. It wont feel good will it.
    What Russia needs, to beat Ukraine, is a leader whose Mighty Weapons actually… work.
    I love your snark when your losing the argument. Humiliation for the west coming in 3..2..1
    Don’t feel bad. Underperformance in certain… functions is a common problem among despots.
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29

    Excalibur said:

    .

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a kind of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Yes, Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin, just like Germany, and he was President of the United States of America for four years.

    During that time, the United Kingdom, under different Prime Ministers, never once wavered in its support for Ukraine.

    So the UK is not some vanguard or unthinking automaton led by America. We have our own independent policy, which has been consistent regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office, and indeed consistent across multiple occupants of Downing Street too.

    The choice isn't between American-policy and more risk-averse European nations, the UK has been more forthright and maximalist than both American and other western European nations. Which is what can happen when you make your own independent policy. No requirement to be either American or European, we're British and we're more maximalist and more supportive and more consistent than both. We're also to be frank right, and both Washington and Berlin have been coming around to our viewpoint.

    Eastern European nations like Poland, Estonia etc (as @Cicero has often said) have been more in line with our thinking than Berlin's or Trump-era Washington's too.
    Uk support on its own wouldnt help ukraine much though.
    Actually it would, you guys might have lost the war even if it were just the UK supporting Ukraine.

    Thankfully though the UK isn't on its own supporting Ukraine. You're on your own though.
    Compare the moscow subway with the dirty crime ridden ny subway.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488

    Reddit is currently doing its best to make all users leave the platform.

    So long as they don't come here.
  • Excalibur said:

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a sort of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Ukraine can barely launch a counter offensive and you are talking about the breakup and collapse of russia. You are a good comedian. Do you not have peace and love in your heart
    Quite often I do, in fact, as a child of the 'sixties.

    I don't think it's in the West's interest to hold out for the recovery of every inch of territitory in Ukraine, because that will lead to major instability in Russia.
    You say that as if major instability in Russia is a problem.

    Major stability in Russia, as in having a single authoritarian leader for the past quarter of a century, has not been a positive.

    The collapse and break-up of the Muscovite Empire that is Russia could be a very good thing for the world, just as the collapse and break-up of the USSR was.

    Every single inch of territory in Ukraine needs to be liberated. If that leads to instability in Russia, that's just a bonus.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited June 2023

    .

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a kind of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Yes, Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin, just like Germany, and he was President of the United States of America for four years.

    During that time, the United Kingdom, under different Prime Ministers, never once wavered in its support for Ukraine.

    So the UK is not some vanguard or unthinking automaton led by America. We have our own independent policy, which has been consistent regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office, and indeed consistent across multiple occupants of Downing Street too.

    The choice isn't between American-policy and more risk-averse European nations, the UK has been more forthright and maximalist than both American and other western European nations. Which is what can happen when you make your own independent policy. No requirement to be either American or European, we're British and we're more maximalist and more supportive and more consistent than both. We're also to be frank right, and both Washington and Berlin have been coming around to our viewpoint.

    Eastern European nations like Poland, Estonia etc (as @Cicero has often said) have been more in line with our thinking than Berlin's or Trump-era Washington's too.
    A lot of boosterism here. Some of this maximalism has been short-term expediency for Johnson and Truss, and overall we're closely in the American orbit on Ukraine policy, and regularly checking to agree and re-coordinate positions.

    As I mentioned, this hasn't been a bad thing overall so far, but that could be subject to change at any time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,854
    Don't knock Excalibur. He's precisely the sort of punter offering a ~5% juice up to your WH2024 book with the Kennedy belief.
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    With regard to the dam always ask cui bono. Whatcwould be the incentive for russia to destroy the dam and ruin the positions of many of its troops. Why would they do that.

    Because of the overriding principle of Russian military strategy -

    When confronted with a choice, do the most stupid self harming thing possible. Preferably one that makes you look like a petulant child.
    Sorry i defer to your wisdom on russian military strategy oh great one.
    Nice to be appreciated.

    My full title in Rear Admiral General (Commanding) of the 116th Chairborne Hussars.

    Oh Great One is just for friends.
    How will you feel if the ukrainian counter offensive ends in humiliation for ukraine. It wont feel good will it.
    What Russia needs, to beat Ukraine, is a leader whose Mighty Weapons actually… work.
    I love your snark when your losing the argument. Humiliation for the west coming in 3..2..1
    Don’t feel bad. Underperformance in certain… functions is a common problem among despots.
    Lol yes lets have a guy who falls over all the time and a silly grinning midget man .
  • Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    .

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a kind of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Yes, Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin, just like Germany, and he was President of the United States of America for four years.

    During that time, the United Kingdom, under different Prime Ministers, never once wavered in its support for Ukraine.

    So the UK is not some vanguard or unthinking automaton led by America. We have our own independent policy, which has been consistent regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office, and indeed consistent across multiple occupants of Downing Street too.

    The choice isn't between American-policy and more risk-averse European nations, the UK has been more forthright and maximalist than both American and other western European nations. Which is what can happen when you make your own independent policy. No requirement to be either American or European, we're British and we're more maximalist and more supportive and more consistent than both. We're also to be frank right, and both Washington and Berlin have been coming around to our viewpoint.

    Eastern European nations like Poland, Estonia etc (as @Cicero has often said) have been more in line with our thinking than Berlin's or Trump-era Washington's too.
    Uk support on its own wouldnt help ukraine much though.
    Actually it would, you guys might have lost the war even if it were just the UK supporting Ukraine.

    Thankfully though the UK isn't on its own supporting Ukraine. You're on your own though.
    Compare the moscow subway with the dirty crime ridden ny subway.
    I'll take your word for it on what your local Moscow subway is like, but I've been to New York many times and used their subway while there. I wouldn't even consider trading it for life under your dear leader, thank you very much.
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29
    You know you can walk across Moscow late at night and not worry about crime.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    With regard to the dam always ask cui bono. Whatcwould be the incentive for russia to destroy the dam and ruin the positions of many of its troops. Why would they do that.

    Because of the overriding principle of Russian military strategy -

    When confronted with a choice, do the most stupid self harming thing possible. Preferably one that makes you look like a petulant child.
    Sorry i defer to your wisdom on russian military strategy oh great one.
    Nice to be appreciated.

    My full title in Rear Admiral General (Commanding) of the 116th Chairborne Hussars.

    Oh Great One is just for friends.
    How will you feel if the ukrainian counter offensive ends in humiliation for ukraine. It wont feel good will it.
    What Russia needs, to beat Ukraine, is a leader whose Mighty Weapons actually… work.
    I love your snark when your losing the argument. Humiliation for the west coming in 3..2..1
    Don’t feel bad. Underperformance in certain… functions is a common problem among despots.
    Lol yes lets have a guy who falls over all the time and a silly grinning midget man .
    Far less silly than tin pot Gollum leading Russia. Your pathetic little country has alreadt been humiliated with two massive retreats. The third is coming.
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29
    The little children in russia all hate the west now. What legacy is that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,836

    .

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a kind of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Yes, Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin, just like Germany, and he was President of the United States of America for four years.

    During that time, the United Kingdom, under different Prime Ministers, never once wavered in its support for Ukraine.

    So the UK is not some vanguard or unthinking automaton led by America. We have our own independent policy, which has been consistent regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office, and indeed consistent across multiple occupants of Downing Street too.

    The choice isn't between American-policy and more risk-averse European nations, the UK has been more forthright and maximalist than both American and other western European nations. Which is what can happen when you make your own independent policy. No requirement to be either American or European, we're British and we're more maximalist and more supportive and more consistent than both. We're also to be frank right, and both Washington and Berlin have been coming around to our viewpoint.

    Eastern European nations like Poland, Estonia etc (as @Cicero has often said) have been more in line with our thinking than Berlin's or Trump-era Washington's too.
    A lot of boosterism here. Some of this maximalism was just short-term expediency for Johnson and Truss, and overall we're closely in the American orbit on Ukraine policy.

    This hasn't been a bad thing so far, but that could change at any time.
    Perhaps. But the support in Britain is not, among major parties, becoming more divided along partisan lines. That is starting to happen in the USA, though it's not totally transformed yet. So there's reason to believe even if American policy positions changed ours would not, as despite being in orbit now that would not be the case at such a point.

    Obviously the practical support would change, since we and others could not do as much as we can without US backing, but the policy direction as much as possible would be its own.
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29
    WillG said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    With regard to the dam always ask cui bono. Whatcwould be the incentive for russia to destroy the dam and ruin the positions of many of its troops. Why would they do that.

    Because of the overriding principle of Russian military strategy -

    When confronted with a choice, do the most stupid self harming thing possible. Preferably one that makes you look like a petulant child.
    Sorry i defer to your wisdom on russian military strategy oh great one.
    Nice to be appreciated.

    My full title in Rear Admiral General (Commanding) of the 116th Chairborne Hussars.

    Oh Great One is just for friends.
    How will you feel if the ukrainian counter offensive ends in humiliation for ukraine. It wont feel good will it.
    What Russia needs, to beat Ukraine, is a leader whose Mighty Weapons actually… work.
    I love your snark when your losing the argument. Humiliation for the west coming in 3..2..1
    Don’t feel bad. Underperformance in certain… functions is a common problem among despots.
    Lol yes lets have a guy who falls over all the time and a silly grinning midget man .
    Far less silly than tin pot Gollum leading Russia. Your pathetic little country has alreadt been humiliated with two massive retreats. The third is coming.
    Watch this and weep.

    https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1666859846875107328?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,836
    Excalibur said:

    The little children in russia all hate the west now. What legacy is that.

    Sometimes I think these efforts include parts that are almost self aware, or trying to covertly put out a message not authorised, but I think they really cannot see the implication of their own comments versus the point they think is being made.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,228
    Pat Rpbertson, former candidate for the GOP nomination in 1988 and prominent evangelical, has died at 93

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/pat-robertson-christian-evangelist-former-presidential-candidate-dead/story?id=99928252
  • .

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a kind of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Yes, Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin, just like Germany, and he was President of the United States of America for four years.

    During that time, the United Kingdom, under different Prime Ministers, never once wavered in its support for Ukraine.

    So the UK is not some vanguard or unthinking automaton led by America. We have our own independent policy, which has been consistent regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office, and indeed consistent across multiple occupants of Downing Street too.

    The choice isn't between American-policy and more risk-averse European nations, the UK has been more forthright and maximalist than both American and other western European nations. Which is what can happen when you make your own independent policy. No requirement to be either American or European, we're British and we're more maximalist and more supportive and more consistent than both. We're also to be frank right, and both Washington and Berlin have been coming around to our viewpoint.

    Eastern European nations like Poland, Estonia etc (as @Cicero has often said) have been more in line with our thinking than Berlin's or Trump-era Washington's too.
    A lot of boosterism here. Some of this maximalism was just short-term expediency for Johnson and Truss, and overall we're closely in the American orbit on Ukraine policy.

    This hasn't been a bad thing so far, but that could change at any time.
    What American orbit? As we've already established, Trump had a totally different policy on Ukraine to either May or Johnson in 2019.

    The maximalism has been a long-term policy of the UK since at the very least Salisbury, if not before then.

    Its not just Boris Johnson who deserves credit for the support offered to Ukraine to help them in this conflict, strong kudos should go to Theresa May and David Cameron too.

    That is why Kyiv survived the initial onslaught while the German ambassador was saying there was no point sanctioning Russia 'because Kiev would fall in hours'. Because our support to them did not begin this past year or when it was a matter of short-term expediency but has been a consistent and long-term policy now for many years.

    You seem to view the choice as a binary of either Europe or America and no alternatives. There is an alternative, and we've followed it: independence, working with our allies when it suited our agenda.

    We've worked with America when it suited.
    We've worked with Germany when it suited.

    And when both America and Germany were led by people blinded by Putin, for very different reasons, we were not thankfully for us and for Ukraine.
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29
    This is not sustainable. After adding up all the casualties and losses from just one day, the AFU have lost ~2000 personnel, dozens of armored vehicles (tanks, IFV, etc.) and at least on aircraft. So far no gains to speak, though a village was initially captured but retaken by the RF. The RF seem to be conducting the usual tactics. Wait for a probing attack, pull back a few km to draw it in, then hit from three sides and obliterate.

    https://twitter.com/CheburekiMan/status/1665797808631455744?s=20
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29
    Do you not feel sympathy for all the good ukrainians dying in a silly war.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,539
    Excalibur said:

    You know you can walk across Moscow late at night and not worry about crime.

    Is that Moscow Idaho?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    With regard to the dam always ask cui bono. Whatcwould be the incentive for russia to destroy the dam and ruin the positions of many of its troops. Why would they do that.

    Because of the overriding principle of Russian military strategy -

    When confronted with a choice, do the most stupid self harming thing possible. Preferably one that makes you look like a petulant child.
    Sorry i defer to your wisdom on russian military strategy oh great one.
    Nice to be appreciated.

    My full title in Rear Admiral General (Commanding) of the 116th Chairborne Hussars.

    Oh Great One is just for friends.
    How will you feel if the ukrainian counter offensive ends in humiliation for ukraine. It wont feel good will it.
    What Russia needs, to beat Ukraine, is a leader whose Mighty Weapons actually… work.
    I love your snark when your losing the argument. Humiliation for the west coming in 3..2..1
    Don’t feel bad. Underperformance in certain… functions is a common problem among despots.
    Lol yes lets have a guy who falls over all the time and a silly grinning midget man .
    You mean the leaders of countries with growing economies and lots of not dead people?

    All because Putin was worried the big kids are laughing at him.
  • kle4 said:

    .

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a kind of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Yes, Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin, just like Germany, and he was President of the United States of America for four years.

    During that time, the United Kingdom, under different Prime Ministers, never once wavered in its support for Ukraine.

    So the UK is not some vanguard or unthinking automaton led by America. We have our own independent policy, which has been consistent regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office, and indeed consistent across multiple occupants of Downing Street too.

    The choice isn't between American-policy and more risk-averse European nations, the UK has been more forthright and maximalist than both American and other western European nations. Which is what can happen when you make your own independent policy. No requirement to be either American or European, we're British and we're more maximalist and more supportive and more consistent than both. We're also to be frank right, and both Washington and Berlin have been coming around to our viewpoint.

    Eastern European nations like Poland, Estonia etc (as @Cicero has often said) have been more in line with our thinking than Berlin's or Trump-era Washington's too.
    A lot of boosterism here. Some of this maximalism was just short-term expediency for Johnson and Truss, and overall we're closely in the American orbit on Ukraine policy.

    This hasn't been a bad thing so far, but that could change at any time.
    Perhaps. But the support in Britain is not, among major parties, becoming more divided along partisan lines. That is starting to happen in the USA, though it's not totally transformed yet. So there's reason to believe even if American policy positions changed ours would not, as despite being in orbit now that would not be the case at such a point.

    Obviously the practical support would change, since we and others could not do as much as we can without US backing, but the policy direction as much as possible would be its own.
    Its not just something that could happen in the future, its something that did happen in the recent past.

    @WhisperingOracle is blinded by his faith in the notion that the west is divided into "American orbit" or "European orbit" but the world is more complex than that. In 2019 both Merkel and Trump were far too soft on Putin.

    Thankfully Britain was not.

    That is independence, true independence, and is to be welcomed.
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29
    kle4 said:

    .

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a kind of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Yes, Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin, just like Germany, and he was President of the United States of America for four years.

    During that time, the United Kingdom, under different Prime Ministers, never once wavered in its support for Ukraine.

    So the UK is not some vanguard or unthinking automaton led by America. We have our own independent policy, which has been consistent regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office, and indeed consistent across multiple occupants of Downing Street too.

    The choice isn't between American-policy and more risk-averse European nations, the UK has been more forthright and maximalist than both American and other western European nations. Which is what can happen when you make your own independent policy. No requirement to be either American or European, we're British and we're more maximalist and more supportive and more consistent than both. We're also to be frank right, and both Washington and Berlin have been coming around to our viewpoint.

    Eastern European nations like Poland, Estonia etc (as @Cicero has often said) have been more in line with our thinking than Berlin's or Trump-era Washington's too.
    A lot of boosterism here. Some of this maximalism was just short-term expediency for Johnson and Truss, and overall we're closely in the American orbit on Ukraine policy.

    This hasn't been a bad thing so far, but that could change at any time.
    Perhaps. But the support in Britain is not, among major parties, becoming more divided along partisan lines. That is starting to happen in the USA, though it's not totally transformed yet. So there's reason to believe even if American policy positions changed ours would not, as despite being in orbit now that would not be the case at such a point.

    Obviously the practical support would change, since we and others could not do as much as we can without US backing, but the policy direction as much as possible would be its own.
    Many us maga types are sensible and want peace.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    First like Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

    On topic. You looks like you and your friend Meeks have Called this very wrong TSE!

    The Telegraph have Boris surviving the 10 day ban - the committee have thrown out the diary evidence - and rather than “spending the next few weeks bitterly denouncing the committee” Boris Johnson’s “outriders” seem suddenly buoyed and happy. The Telegraph has a Boris Supporter in Rishi’s cabinet boasting the Free Vote on 29th June not only draws a line under the entire Partygate affair once and for all, but in a cathartic moment, reunites the Tory Party.


    I know some will say it’s just one paper, and it’s the Telegraph, but that’s precisely it - if any paper is going to be first to tell us the mood of Boris and his gang right now with the report in his hands, it’s going to be the Telegraph isn’t it?

    My call is, as it’s now not likely to be a 10 day or more suspension voted on, the real vitriol for letting the Tories draw a final line under all this will fall upon the non Tory members of the special committee. An inglorious end for Harriet Harman is what the story will become.
    When you consider it, it’s all so obvious, with Tory’s on the committee already reporting back what’s been decided it’s hardly a huge secret - so what to make of the last minute leaks against Boris, like the diary? Desperation from those who have heard Boris is surviving hence they tried to get some last minute weight of evidence out there - which might have put the Boris camp on edge until they learned today the committee aren’t even going to consider this new stuff. Hence the sudden buoyant mood in the Boris camp.

    Wether we think the free vote on less than 10 days/slap of wrist is justice done or not, every one of us has to realise all the politics and what is at stake to have engineered this outcome. A ten day Ban would put immense pressure not just on Sunak but every single member of government. The free vote is a complete red herring, the fact it’s not a 10day ban is the main thing as it means voting to slap his wrist, or vote not to slap his wrist, or not turning up and going baseball instead is absolutely meaningless, it doesn’t carry any jeopardy now to the current powers that be. That’s the bottom line.

    That’s how the history books will write this up.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,325
    Excalibur said:

    The little children in russia all hate the west now. What legacy is that.

    Wise the fuck up.
  • Excalibur said:

    Do you not feel sympathy for all the good ukrainians dying in a silly war.

    Yes. That's why we're giving them munitions, training and support so they can win this silly war and repel your orcs.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Excalibur said:

    The little children in russia all hate the west now. What legacy is that.

    The measure of a man, they say, is in his enemies.

    Bit of a shame that all we have is Russia.

    But it will have to do, until a major country comes along.
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    With regard to the dam always ask cui bono. Whatcwould be the incentive for russia to destroy the dam and ruin the positions of many of its troops. Why would they do that.

    Because of the overriding principle of Russian military strategy -

    When confronted with a choice, do the most stupid self harming thing possible. Preferably one that makes you look like a petulant child.
    Sorry i defer to your wisdom on russian military strategy oh great one.
    Nice to be appreciated.

    My full title in Rear Admiral General (Commanding) of the 116th Chairborne Hussars.

    Oh Great One is just for friends.
    How will you feel if the ukrainian counter offensive ends in humiliation for ukraine. It wont feel good will it.
    What Russia needs, to beat Ukraine, is a leader whose Mighty Weapons actually… work.
    I love your snark when your losing the argument. Humiliation for the west coming in 3..2..1
    Don’t feel bad. Underperformance in certain… functions is a common problem among despots.
    Lol yes lets have a guy who falls over all the time and a silly grinning midget man .
    You mean the leaders of countries with growing economies and lots of not dead people?

    All because Putin was worried the big kids are laughing at him.
    Nearly midnite uk time and you are still here with your snark.
  • Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    With regard to the dam always ask cui bono. Whatcwould be the incentive for russia to destroy the dam and ruin the positions of many of its troops. Why would they do that.

    Because of the overriding principle of Russian military strategy -

    When confronted with a choice, do the most stupid self harming thing possible. Preferably one that makes you look like a petulant child.
    Sorry i defer to your wisdom on russian military strategy oh great one.
    Nice to be appreciated.

    My full title in Rear Admiral General (Commanding) of the 116th Chairborne Hussars.

    Oh Great One is just for friends.
    How will you feel if the ukrainian counter offensive ends in humiliation for ukraine. It wont feel good will it.
    What Russia needs, to beat Ukraine, is a leader whose Mighty Weapons actually… work.
    I love your snark when your losing the argument. Humiliation for the west coming in 3..2..1
    Don’t feel bad. Underperformance in certain… functions is a common problem among despots.
    Lol yes lets have a guy who falls over all the time and a silly grinning midget man .
    You mean the leaders of countries with growing economies and lots of not dead people?

    All because Putin was worried the big kids are laughing at him.
    Nearly midnite uk time and you are still here with your snark.
    Nearly 2am Moscow time and you are still here awaiting your 🔨
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29

    Excalibur said:

    The little children in russia all hate the west now. What legacy is that.

    The measure of a man, they say, is in his enemies.

    Bit of a shame that all we have is Russia.

    But it will have to do, until a major country comes along.
    Russia is reource rich with very low debt to gdp unlike the usa drowning in debt.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    First like Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

    As you know a bit about law TSE, could I win a Judicial Review on admin powers stealing so many Firsts? 🤭
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29
    Wait till mel gibson exposes child trafficking in ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/TruthSeeker84x3/status/1666662419840507905?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    The little children in russia all hate the west now. What legacy is that.

    The measure of a man, they say, is in his enemies.

    Bit of a shame that all we have is Russia.

    But it will have to do, until a major country comes along.
    Russia is reource rich with very low debt to gdp unlike the usa drowning in debt.
    How does it feel to look up at economic giants like… Mexico?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited June 2023

    .

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a kind of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Yes, Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin, just like Germany, and he was President of the United States of America for four years.

    During that time, the United Kingdom, under different Prime Ministers, never once wavered in its support for Ukraine.

    So the UK is not some vanguard or unthinking automaton led by America. We have our own independent policy, which has been consistent regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office, and indeed consistent across multiple occupants of Downing Street too.

    The choice isn't between American-policy and more risk-averse European nations, the UK has been more forthright and maximalist than both American and other western European nations. Which is what can happen when you make your own independent policy. No requirement to be either American or European, we're British and we're more maximalist and more supportive and more consistent than both. We're also to be frank right, and both Washington and Berlin have been coming around to our viewpoint.

    Eastern European nations like Poland, Estonia etc (as @Cicero has often said) have been more in line with our thinking than Berlin's or Trump-era Washington's too.
    A lot of boosterism here. Some of this maximalism was just short-term expediency for Johnson and Truss, and overall we're closely in the American orbit on Ukraine policy.

    This hasn't been a bad thing so far, but that could change at any time.
    What American orbit? As we've already established, Trump had a totally different policy on Ukraine to either May or Johnson in 2019.

    The maximalism has been a long-term policy of the UK since at the very least Salisbury, if not before then.

    Its not just Boris Johnson who deserves credit for the support offered to Ukraine to help them in this conflict, strong kudos should go to Theresa May and David Cameron too.

    That is why Kyiv survived the initial onslaught while the German ambassador was saying there was no point sanctioning Russia 'because Kiev would fall in hours'. Because our support to them did not begin this past year or when it was a matter of short-term expediency but has been a consistent and long-term policy now for many years.

    You seem to view the choice as a binary of either Europe or America and no alternatives. There is an alternative, and we've followed it: independence, working with our allies when it suited our agenda.

    We've worked with America when it suited.
    We've worked with Germany when it suited.

    And when both America and Germany were led by people blinded by Putin, for very different reasons, we were not thankfully for us and for Ukraine.
    Quite the opposite, I view it in terms of taking every opportunity to maximise independent influence. This definitely doesn't mean an either/or approach to Europe or America, but it does mean working more collegiately and collectively with neighbouring nations, rather than in isolation, and with individual countries. The EPC is one of the best forums for Britain to do this, unless one takes just that kind of approach you're describing of an either/or or zero-sum approach to European or American co-operation.

    I wouldn't agree that Britain led on Ukraine during the Obama period, when all this latest conflict began. It carefully co-ordinated and followed the Obama White House on this. Trump was then in one way an outlier and out of step with Britain, but from another point view with his administration fully behind Putin's goal of separating Britain from Europe, via supporting key figures in the Conservatie Party who backed Brexit.
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    With regard to the dam always ask cui bono. Whatcwould be the incentive for russia to destroy the dam and ruin the positions of many of its troops. Why would they do that.

    Because of the overriding principle of Russian military strategy -

    When confronted with a choice, do the most stupid self harming thing possible. Preferably one that makes you look like a petulant child.
    Sorry i defer to your wisdom on russian military strategy oh great one.
    Nice to be appreciated.

    My full title in Rear Admiral General (Commanding) of the 116th Chairborne Hussars.

    Oh Great One is just for friends.
    How will you feel if the ukrainian counter offensive ends in humiliation for ukraine. It wont feel good will it.
    What Russia needs, to beat Ukraine, is a leader whose Mighty Weapons actually… work.
    I love your snark when your losing the argument. Humiliation for the west coming in 3..2..1
    Don’t feel bad. Underperformance in certain… functions is a common problem among despots.
    Lol yes lets have a guy who falls over all the time and a silly grinning midget man .
    You mean the leaders of countries with growing economies and lots of not dead people?

    All because Putin was worried the big kids are laughing at him.
    Nearly midnite uk time and you are still here with your snark.
    Nearly 2am Moscow time and you are still here awaiting your 🔨
    But then i would miss your wit and wisdom
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    The little children in russia all hate the west now. What legacy is that.

    The measure of a man, they say, is in his enemies.

    Bit of a shame that all we have is Russia.

    But it will have to do, until a major country comes along.
    Russia is reource rich with very low debt to gdp unlike the usa drowning in debt.
    How does it feel to look up at economic giants like… Mexico?
    Mexico doesnt have nuclear weapons remember that.
  • .

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a kind of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Yes, Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin, just like Germany, and he was President of the United States of America for four years.

    During that time, the United Kingdom, under different Prime Ministers, never once wavered in its support for Ukraine.

    So the UK is not some vanguard or unthinking automaton led by America. We have our own independent policy, which has been consistent regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office, and indeed consistent across multiple occupants of Downing Street too.

    The choice isn't between American-policy and more risk-averse European nations, the UK has been more forthright and maximalist than both American and other western European nations. Which is what can happen when you make your own independent policy. No requirement to be either American or European, we're British and we're more maximalist and more supportive and more consistent than both. We're also to be frank right, and both Washington and Berlin have been coming around to our viewpoint.

    Eastern European nations like Poland, Estonia etc (as @Cicero has often said) have been more in line with our thinking than Berlin's or Trump-era Washington's too.
    A lot of boosterism here. Some of this maximalism was just short-term expediency for Johnson and Truss, and overall we're closely in the American orbit on Ukraine policy.

    This hasn't been a bad thing so far, but that could change at any time.
    What American orbit? As we've already established, Trump had a totally different policy on Ukraine to either May or Johnson in 2019.

    The maximalism has been a long-term policy of the UK since at the very least Salisbury, if not before then.

    Its not just Boris Johnson who deserves credit for the support offered to Ukraine to help them in this conflict, strong kudos should go to Theresa May and David Cameron too.

    That is why Kyiv survived the initial onslaught while the German ambassador was saying there was no point sanctioning Russia 'because Kiev would fall in hours'. Because our support to them did not begin this past year or when it was a matter of short-term expediency but has been a consistent and long-term policy now for many years.

    You seem to view the choice as a binary of either Europe or America and no alternatives. There is an alternative, and we've followed it: independence, working with our allies when it suited our agenda.

    We've worked with America when it suited.
    We've worked with Germany when it suited.

    And when both America and Germany were led by people blinded by Putin, for very different reasons, we were not thankfully for us and for Ukraine.
    Quite the opposite, I view it in terms of taking every opportunity to maximise indeoendent influence.

    This definitely doesn't mean an either/or approach to Europe or America, but it does mean working more collegiately and collectively with neighbouring nations, rather than in isolation. The EPC is one of the best forums for this, unless one takes just such as either/or approach to European co-operation.

    I also wouldn't agree that Britain led on Ukraine during the Obama period, when all this laest conflict began. It carefully co-ordinated and followed the Obama White House, on this, with Trump in one way out of step with Britain, but from another point view with his administration fully behind Putin's goal of separating Britain from Europe with Brexit.
    The EPC is another talking shop, its meaningless nonsense.

    True co-operation happens not through talking shops but by like-minded sovereign nations making meaningful decisions to act. Even if other nations choose not to.

    Collegiality, yes, and we have that in abundance. Collectivism, no. Collectivism is working to the lowest common denominator which is why it doesn't work.

    We can work with other nations in one area where it suits us, but not on another when it doesn't, because that is how independent nations work all over the globe.

    Oh and Obama was President when we chose to go for Brexit.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited June 2023

    .

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a kind of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Yes, Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin, just like Germany, and he was President of the United States of America for four years.

    During that time, the United Kingdom, under different Prime Ministers, never once wavered in its support for Ukraine.

    So the UK is not some vanguard or unthinking automaton led by America. We have our own independent policy, which has been consistent regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office, and indeed consistent across multiple occupants of Downing Street too.

    The choice isn't between American-policy and more risk-averse European nations, the UK has been more forthright and maximalist than both American and other western European nations. Which is what can happen when you make your own independent policy. No requirement to be either American or European, we're British and we're more maximalist and more supportive and more consistent than both. We're also to be frank right, and both Washington and Berlin have been coming around to our viewpoint.

    Eastern European nations like Poland, Estonia etc (as @Cicero has often said) have been more in line with our thinking than Berlin's or Trump-era Washington's too.
    A lot of boosterism here. Some of this maximalism was just short-term expediency for Johnson and Truss, and overall we're closely in the American orbit on Ukraine policy.

    This hasn't been a bad thing so far, but that could change at any time.
    What American orbit? As we've already established, Trump had a totally different policy on Ukraine to either May or Johnson in 2019.

    The maximalism has been a long-term policy of the UK since at the very least Salisbury, if not before then.

    Its not just Boris Johnson who deserves credit for the support offered to Ukraine to help them in this conflict, strong kudos should go to Theresa May and David Cameron too.

    That is why Kyiv survived the initial onslaught while the German ambassador was saying there was no point sanctioning Russia 'because Kiev would fall in hours'. Because our support to them did not begin this past year or when it was a matter of short-term expediency but has been a consistent and long-term policy now for many years.

    You seem to view the choice as a binary of either Europe or America and no alternatives. There is an alternative, and we've followed it: independence, working with our allies when it suited our agenda.

    We've worked with America when it suited.
    We've worked with Germany when it suited.

    And when both America and Germany were led by people blinded by Putin, for very different reasons, we were not thankfully for us and for Ukraine.
    Quite the opposite, I view it in terms of taking every opportunity to maximise indeoendent influence.

    This definitely doesn't mean an either/or approach to Europe or America, but it does mean working more collegiately and collectively with neighbouring nations, rather than in isolation. The EPC is one of the best forums for this, unless one takes just such as either/or approach to European co-operation.

    I also wouldn't agree that Britain led on Ukraine during the Obama period, when all this laest conflict began. It carefully co-ordinated and followed the Obama White House, on this, with Trump in one way out of step with Britain, but from another point view with his administration fully behind Putin's goal of separating Britain from Europe with Brexit.
    The EPC is another talking shop, its meaningless nonsense.

    True co-operation happens not through talking shops but by like-minded sovereign nations making meaningful decisions to act. Even if other nations choose not to.

    Collegiality, yes, and we have that in abundance. Collectivism, no. Collectivism is working to the lowest common denominator which is why it doesn't work.

    We can work with other nations in one area where it suits us, but not on another when it doesn't, because that is how independent nations work all over the globe.

    Oh and Obama was President when we chose to go for Brexit.
    ..and Trump was partly brought to partly by someone who was simultaneously one of ts biggest backers, the fragrant Steve Bannon, lest we've forget him.

    It's too early to say whether the EPC will be just a talking shop, I think. Some British politicans thought this originally of the earliest European bodies, and so, partly, but not wholly, for that reason, chose to take a back seat.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    The little children in russia all hate the west now. What legacy is that.

    The measure of a man, they say, is in his enemies.

    Bit of a shame that all we have is Russia.

    But it will have to do, until a major country comes along.
    Russia is reource rich with very low debt to gdp unlike the usa drowning in debt.
    How does it feel to look up at economic giants like… Mexico?
    Mexico doesnt have nuclear weapons remember that.
    Mexico’s Guacamole Grenades alone could disarm Russia on present form.

    A delicious way to go though. Do you know the recipe dates back to the Aztecs.
  • .

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a kind of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Yes, Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin, just like Germany, and he was President of the United States of America for four years.

    During that time, the United Kingdom, under different Prime Ministers, never once wavered in its support for Ukraine.

    So the UK is not some vanguard or unthinking automaton led by America. We have our own independent policy, which has been consistent regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office, and indeed consistent across multiple occupants of Downing Street too.

    The choice isn't between American-policy and more risk-averse European nations, the UK has been more forthright and maximalist than both American and other western European nations. Which is what can happen when you make your own independent policy. No requirement to be either American or European, we're British and we're more maximalist and more supportive and more consistent than both. We're also to be frank right, and both Washington and Berlin have been coming around to our viewpoint.

    Eastern European nations like Poland, Estonia etc (as @Cicero has often said) have been more in line with our thinking than Berlin's or Trump-era Washington's too.
    A lot of boosterism here. Some of this maximalism was just short-term expediency for Johnson and Truss, and overall we're closely in the American orbit on Ukraine policy.

    This hasn't been a bad thing so far, but that could change at any time.
    What American orbit? As we've already established, Trump had a totally different policy on Ukraine to either May or Johnson in 2019.

    The maximalism has been a long-term policy of the UK since at the very least Salisbury, if not before then.

    Its not just Boris Johnson who deserves credit for the support offered to Ukraine to help them in this conflict, strong kudos should go to Theresa May and David Cameron too.

    That is why Kyiv survived the initial onslaught while the German ambassador was saying there was no point sanctioning Russia 'because Kiev would fall in hours'. Because our support to them did not begin this past year or when it was a matter of short-term expediency but has been a consistent and long-term policy now for many years.

    You seem to view the choice as a binary of either Europe or America and no alternatives. There is an alternative, and we've followed it: independence, working with our allies when it suited our agenda.

    We've worked with America when it suited.
    We've worked with Germany when it suited.

    And when both America and Germany were led by people blinded by Putin, for very different reasons, we were not thankfully for us and for Ukraine.
    Quite the opposite, I view it in terms of taking every opportunity to maximise indeoendent influence.

    This definitely doesn't mean an either/or approach to Europe or America, but it does mean working more collegiately and collectively with neighbouring nations, rather than in isolation. The EPC is one of the best forums for this, unless one takes just such as either/or approach to European co-operation.

    I also wouldn't agree that Britain led on Ukraine during the Obama period, when all this laest conflict began. It carefully co-ordinated and followed the Obama White House, on this, with Trump in one way out of step with Britain, but from another point view with his administration fully behind Putin's goal of separating Britain from Europe with Brexit.
    The EPC is another talking shop, its meaningless nonsense.

    True co-operation happens not through talking shops but by like-minded sovereign nations making meaningful decisions to act. Even if other nations choose not to.

    Collegiality, yes, and we have that in abundance. Collectivism, no. Collectivism is working to the lowest common denominator which is why it doesn't work.

    We can work with other nations in one area where it suits us, but not on another when it doesn't, because that is how independent nations work all over the globe.

    Oh and Obama was President when we chose to go for Brexit.
    ..and Trump was brought to power partly by one its biggest backers, the fragrant Steve Bannon.

    It's too early to say whether the EPC will be just a talking shop, I think. Some British politicans thought this originally of the earliest European bodies, and so, partly, but not wholly, for that reason, chose to take a back seat.
    Its too early to say the EPC is anything other than a talking shop. It might one day have a great success to its name, but it hasn't yet, but for some reason you are already decreeing that it is "one of the best forums" for working with other nations?

    No, one of the best forums for working with other nations is the Prime Minister of this country and the Prime Minister of another country like Poland or Estonia etc discussing directly how they are going to get munitions into Ukraine and train the Ukrainian military.

    Like-minded nations working together voluntarily has done more for European security than the United Nations, the European Union, the EPC or any other talking shop ever has done.
  • ExcaliburExcalibur Posts: 29

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    The little children in russia all hate the west now. What legacy is that.

    The measure of a man, they say, is in his enemies.

    Bit of a shame that all we have is Russia.

    But it will have to do, until a major country comes along.
    Russia is reource rich with very low debt to gdp unlike the usa drowning in debt.
    How does it feel to look up at economic giants like… Mexico?
    Mexico doesnt have nuclear weapons remember that.
    Mexico’s Guacamole Grenades alone could disarm Russia on present form.

    A delicious way to go though. Do you know the recipe dates back to the Aztecs.
    By august the west will be facing total humiliation. How would that make you feel at the hands of a tinpot economy. Wouldnt feel good would it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423
    edited June 2023
    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    The little children in russia all hate the west now. What legacy is that.

    The measure of a man, they say, is in his enemies.

    Bit of a shame that all we have is Russia.

    But it will have to do, until a major country comes along.
    Russia is reource rich with very low debt to gdp unlike the usa drowning in debt.
    How does it feel to look up at economic giants like… Mexico?
    Mexico doesnt have nuclear weapons remember that.
    Please don't ban this one yet, want to toy with it in the morning.

    PB usually gets one on Saturday evening, right? So this is an unusual timing. Hmm.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    With regard to the dam always ask cui bono. Whatcwould be the incentive for russia to destroy the dam and ruin the positions of many of its troops. Why would they do that.

    Because of the overriding principle of Russian military strategy -

    When confronted with a choice, do the most stupid self harming thing possible. Preferably one that makes you look like a petulant child.
    Sorry i defer to your wisdom on russian military strategy oh great one.
    Nice to be appreciated.

    My full title in Rear Admiral General (Commanding) of the 116th Chairborne Hussars.

    Oh Great One is just for friends.
    How will you feel if the ukrainian counter offensive ends in humiliation for ukraine. It wont feel good will it.
    What Russia needs, to beat Ukraine, is a leader whose Mighty Weapons actually… work.
    I love your snark when your losing the argument. Humiliation for the west coming in 3..2..1
    Don’t feel bad. Underperformance in certain… functions is a common problem among despots.
    Lol yes lets have a guy who falls over all the time and a silly grinning midget man .
    You mean the leaders of countries with growing economies and lots of not dead people?

    All because Putin was worried the big kids are laughing at him.
    Nearly midnite uk time and you are still here with your snark.
    Serious question, as you seem to know so much from a Russian point of view. Why did Lenin sign a peace deal with Germany whilst they were still encamped in Ukraine?

    Why didn’t he continue to fight until Ukraine was liberated?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423
    edited June 2023
    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    The little children in russia all hate the west now. What legacy is that.

    The measure of a man, they say, is in his enemies.

    Bit of a shame that all we have is Russia.

    But it will have to do, until a major country comes along.
    Russia is reource rich with very low debt to gdp unlike the usa drowning in debt.
    How does it feel to look up at economic giants like… Mexico?
    Mexico doesnt have nuclear weapons remember that.
    Mexico’s Guacamole Grenades alone could disarm Russia on present form.

    A delicious way to go though. Do you know the recipe dates back to the Aztecs.
    By august the west will be facing total humiliation. How would that make you feel at the hands of a tinpot economy. Wouldnt feel good would it.
    Tinpot economy would be decent for our balance of payments. Still got large deposits down in Cornwall.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited June 2023
    Trump was partly brought to "power", that should say !

    Time for bed before the excessive tiredness-dyslexia kicks in again more regularly than usual ; and a good night to all !
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    Eabhal said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    The little children in russia all hate the west now. What legacy is that.

    The measure of a man, they say, is in his enemies.

    Bit of a shame that all we have is Russia.

    But it will have to do, until a major country comes along.
    Russia is reource rich with very low debt to gdp unlike the usa drowning in debt.
    How does it feel to look up at economic giants like… Mexico?
    Mexico doesnt have nuclear weapons remember that.
    Please don't ban this one yet, want to toy with it in the morning.

    PB usually gets one on Saturday evening, right? So this is an unusual timing. Hmm.
    Timing to coincide with the ongoing Ukraine offensive I guess. It’s a crucial moment. 🤷‍♀️
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    The little children in russia all hate the west now. What legacy is that.

    The measure of a man, they say, is in his enemies.

    Bit of a shame that all we have is Russia.

    But it will have to do, until a major country comes along.
    Russia is reource rich with very low debt to gdp unlike the usa drowning in debt.
    How does it feel to look up at economic giants like… Mexico?
    Mexico doesnt have nuclear weapons remember that.
    We are back to Mighty Weapons, eh? Like the one that Putin couldn’t get up for the May Day parade?

    Talk about failure to perform….
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,178
    edited June 2023

    ping said:

    Interesting read from Mr. Meeks, from last week;

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/old-whines-481202d1c7c7

    Good article.
    Meeks mentions in passing the current trend to renationalise rail. One interesting data point is the utter shambles that is Transpenine Express which was (very slowly) improving slightly. Since being nationalised a month or so ago, quite remarkably its actually gone backwards and is now canceling as many trains at the worst of the crisis last winter.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    edited June 2023
    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    The little children in russia all hate the west now. What legacy is that.

    The measure of a man, they say, is in his enemies.

    Bit of a shame that all we have is Russia.

    But it will have to do, until a major country comes along.
    Russia is reource rich with very low debt to gdp unlike the usa drowning in debt.
    How does it feel to look up at economic giants like… Mexico?
    Mexico doesnt have nuclear weapons remember that.
    Mexico’s Guacamole Grenades alone could disarm Russia on present form.

    A delicious way to go though. Do you know the recipe dates back to the Aztecs.
    By august the west will be facing total humiliation. How would that make you feel at the hands of a tinpot economy. Wouldnt feel good would it.
    I don’t feel good already at the thought of all the Ukrainians now risking their lives because they have been left with no choice, their land, their freedom is at stake. They are poor. They look west to see how being in EU helps the grass to grow greener.

    Even if the bear maybe has some good points to growl “but the grass doesn’t actually grow greener over there you idiots, it comes with strings attached” every brexiteer in UK can hardly argue when the green grass comes at a price they hated - but it’s not the bears decision at the end of the day, that’s the principle, Ukraine is not Russia. In 1939 70+% population of Lyiv was polish. The bear does not speak for Ukrainians, the bear does not decide for Ukrainians, Ukrainians are not Russian. Never have been, never will be.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,325
    The Chinese regime seems to be doing a lot of conmunication with Russian Prime Minister Mishustin. Some real red carpet stuff to boot, the kind of things reserved for someone like a President.

    Maybe they are just getting close to their preferred successor in Russia.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    edited June 2023
    Yokes said:

    The Chinese regime seems to be doing a lot of conmunication with Russian Prime Minister Mishustin. Some real red carpet stuff to boot, the kind of things reserved for someone like a President.

    Maybe they are just getting close to their preferred successor in Russia.

    Good call.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Mishustin

    Mixed in with the charade of standing by a friend, like we would want to appear on a besties side even when thinking them wrong and making idiotic mistakes?
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,325
    Everyone does know that Excalibur is the name of a guided artillery munition in service with the Ukrainian military, right?

    Rather effective at killing Russian troops by all accounts.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,325

    Yokes said:

    The Chinese regime seems to be doing a lot of conmunication with Russian Prime Minister Mishustin. Some real red carpet stuff to boot, the kind of things reserved for someone like a President.

    Maybe they are just getting close to their preferred successor in Russia.

    Good call.

    Mixed in with the charade of standing by a friend, like we would want to appear on a besties side even when thinking them wrong and making idiotic mistakes?
    The level of recepion afforded to Mishustin is unusual. China couldnt give a fiddlers about Putin.

  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,325
    edited June 2023
    Apparently Trump has been indicted..again...

    Update: Source reliability warning: The source is one D Trump...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423
    Trump indicted?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    edited June 2023
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65852062

    Just Trump as the source though.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,325
    carnforth said:
    Some news outlets appear to be suggesting the same.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    Yokes said:

    Yokes said:

    The Chinese regime seems to be doing a lot of conmunication with Russian Prime Minister Mishustin. Some real red carpet stuff to boot, the kind of things reserved for someone like a President.

    Maybe they are just getting close to their preferred successor in Russia.

    Good call.

    Mixed in with the charade of standing by a friend, like we would want to appear on a besties side even when thinking them wrong and making idiotic mistakes?
    The level of recepion afforded to Mishustin is unusual. China couldnt give a fiddlers about Putin.

    Putin wouldn’t have massively over promoted him if he anticipated he could become a political threat though. He’s still most likely being a lap dog in there, protecting the establishments ill gotten gains.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,887
    Excalibur said:

    kle4 said:

    .

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.

    "Rishi Sunak has annoyed experts, politicians, and journalists across Europe after claiming that the UK was “taking the lead” on illegal migration at a summit in Moldova – which had nothing to do with migration at all."

    A way to build local influence, in a system of looser alliances.

    If you think the likes of Dave Keating are the gatekeepers to European influence, then we have a bigger problem...
    The EPC is an opportunity for Britain to rebuild intra-European relationships, prestige and influence, while still being outside the structures of the EU ; surely something many voters might agree would help.

    It's not taken that opportunity so far ; quite the reverse.
    What will rebuild British prestige in Europe, to the extent that it's been lost, is economic success "despite Brexit", not ostentatious collegiality that nobody will respect.
    Collegiality built the single market.

    Collegiality built the expansion into Eastern Europe.
    A strange response that is not only irrelevant in a post-Brexit context, but also memory-holes just how uncollegiate our relations with the rest of the EC/EU were during much of that period.
    But Britain had an influence within the EU, to exercise an outsize influence over the whole Continent. You could call that collegiality or co-operation, but it's a simple fact that Britain doesn't have that any more.

    Sunak could try and rebuild that in the EPC, and even stay out of the single market, but instead he seems more interested even in nonsense in talking about "stop the boats" to the Moldovans even before talking about Ukraine, which illustrates how extreme this narcissistic-isolationist syndrome has become. Roll on Starmer, a return to the single market, and a stronger and less ridiculous role in the EPC.
    Call me a cynic, but I don't think that what Rishi Sunak's press secretary briefs the Guardian about his priority for the summit in Moldova necessarily corresponds with his actual priorities.

    Every country has domestic politics, and every leader around the table understands that. It might give the likes of Dave Keating an excuse to indulge their usual nonsense about Britain but you shouldn't be so quick to accept their framing.
    But messaging matters. Brexit had a large element of domestic Tory messaging over international relationships and impressions too.

    We can say for sure that hijacking the conference of new international political organisation, which is in fact partly designed to help Britain return to the European arena, with nonsense designed for the tabloiids, hasn't helped Britain's international reputation, in the same way.
    It was only "hijacked" if you have a strangely inflated sense of the importance of the British press. Britain's international reputation isn't determined by a tiny bubble of Twitter-obsessed EU correspondents.
    Look here - the negative reaction seems be mainly from European officials, thinktankers and politicians.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/rishi-sunak-eu-officials-prime-minister-small-boats-plan-2391064
    That article doesn't quote a single negative reaction from a politician, just an unnamed EU official and Fabian Zuleeg, who has been notoriously zealous about Brexit throughout.
    Well, I can see I'm not going to make any progress with your impressions.

    Britain has to choose to restore whether its influence in Europe, or not. I think Starmer will help move us back in the right direction, over the long-term.
    Is it not obvious that our future influence comes from being seen to succeed, not from immediately agreeing with the position taken by everyone else. Tony Blair has been fairly articulate in expressing this view of Brexit so you don't have to take it from me.
    That comes back to the post earlier - we are just not in a position anymore to succeed purely by domination rather than co-operation.

    This is already becoming clear, but will be even clearer in the long-term.
    It's a totally false dichotomy. Do you seriously think that Brexit was a bid for domination? Over what?
    You suggested that the key for Britain was to perform better than the EU, so that the EU followed Britain's lead.

    I'm afraid this isn't realistic, or going to happen.
    Its perfectly realistic and its already happened, with regards to supporting Ukraine in our continents most-serious armed conflict since World War II.

    We already performed better than the EU by supporting Kyiv since before the war began, including flying munitions around German airspace, and the outcome is that the EU has subsequently followed our lead with Germany abandoning its support for Ostpolitik and Nordstream.

    The notion the UK can't independently perform well outside of the EU is nothing but self-deprecating nonsense. Better or worse is a matter of choices made, not being in or out of the structure of the EU. And if we're making bad choices, its easier to course correct by removing our politicians at a General Election and electing a new bunch instead than it is to oust politicians and their collective viewpoint over the entire continent of Europe simultaneously.
    See the comments earlier in the day.

    Compared to France's policies in the Mediterranean. and many other areas, this is not independent policy.
    Your desire for divergence from the US for its own sake reminds me of @Luckyguy1983 but I'm not sure you would support the concrete implications of a foreign policy design less around liberal internationalism and more around unsentimental British national intererts.
    I don't desire divergence from the USA from its own sake, nor have any of my posts argued that. We should stay in step with the US on Ukraine, and contrarily to many people, I think we were right to be in step with the US over Libya.

    The problem is more that, post-Thatcher and Reagan, particularly, we have often had total convergence for its own sake. Or, more accutely, because there is often a fearful idea that no other more nuanced course is possible, when looking across to our neighbours, who the US still regards as key allies, we see that it is.
    We should not and did not stay in step with the USA when the President of the United States of America was trying to make military aid to Ukraine be conditional upon Ukraine faking materials to assist his re-election attempt.

    We operated independently as we should and independently chose to be firm allies of Ukraine, even when America wavered or was led by a disreputable President.

    We have not had total convergence for its own sake, that is completely false, we have diverged from them on many issues. Stop buying Putin's myths that we are tied to the hip of America, we are not remotely.
    If you need to imagine this is true, who am I to disrupt the illusion. The fact that it is a typical Putinist trope doesn't make it a taboo, or untrue.

    In fact an explicit goal of Dugin's Russian military and intelligence manual was to make Britain even more joined at the hip with the US and distanced from Europe to begin with, which was partly achieved by supporting Brexit, so he partly knows more of what he speaks from the inside, and probably at some remove from figures like Lebedev, who were present the very night Bozo and Gove decided to support it.
    The fact its untrue makes it untrue.

    The fact its a Putinist trope that is untrue is just the cherry on top.

    Why didn't we waver in support to Ukraine when America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    Why did we offer tanks to Ukraine before America did if we are so tied at the hip?

    That we are allies with America does not make us subservient to them.
    Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin ( and Brexit ).

    During Biden's period, conversely, I would say we have been sometimes acting as a kind of vanguard and advance party for the more American approach ahead of more risk-averse European nations. I haven't disagreed with this most of the time, but if it continues into a position of only supporting a final settlement that makes the break-up and collapse of Russia more likely, I would probably take a different view again, more like some of my concerns about maximalist objectives at the start of the conflict.
    Yes, Trump opposed supporting Ukraine because he was more favourable to Putin, just like Germany, and he was President of the United States of America for four years.

    During that time, the United Kingdom, under different Prime Ministers, never once wavered in its support for Ukraine.

    So the UK is not some vanguard or unthinking automaton led by America. We have our own independent policy, which has been consistent regardless of the occupant of the Oval Office, and indeed consistent across multiple occupants of Downing Street too.

    The choice isn't between American-policy and more risk-averse European nations, the UK has been more forthright and maximalist than both American and other western European nations. Which is what can happen when you make your own independent policy. No requirement to be either American or European, we're British and we're more maximalist and more supportive and more consistent than both. We're also to be frank right, and both Washington and Berlin have been coming around to our viewpoint.

    Eastern European nations like Poland, Estonia etc (as @Cicero has often said) have been more in line with our thinking than Berlin's or Trump-era Washington's too.
    A lot of boosterism here. Some of this maximalism was just short-term expediency for Johnson and Truss, and overall we're closely in the American orbit on Ukraine policy.

    This hasn't been a bad thing so far, but that could change at any time.
    Perhaps. But the support in Britain is not, among major parties, becoming more divided along partisan lines. That is starting to happen in the USA, though it's not totally transformed yet. So there's reason to believe even if American policy positions changed ours would not, as despite being in orbit now that would not be the case at such a point.

    Obviously the practical support would change, since we and others could not do as much as we can without US backing, but the policy direction as much as possible would be its own.
    Many us maga types are sensible and want peace.
    Peace is very easy to achieve. All that needs to happen is for the invading army to leave Ukraine.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,309
    edited June 2023
    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    With regard to the dam always ask cui bono. Whatcwould be the incentive for russia to destroy the dam and ruin the positions of many of its troops. Why would they do that.

    Because of the overriding principle of Russian military strategy -

    When confronted with a choice, do the most stupid self harming thing possible. Preferably one that makes you look like a petulant child.
    Sorry i defer to your wisdom on russian military strategy oh great one.
    Nice to be appreciated.

    My full title in Rear Admiral General (Commanding) of the 116th Chairborne Hussars.

    Oh Great One is just for friends.
    How will you feel if the ukrainian counter offensive ends in humiliation for ukraine. It wont feel good will it.
    What Russia needs, to beat Ukraine, is a leader whose Mighty Weapons actually… work.
    I love your snark when your losing the argument. Humiliation for the west coming in 3..2..1
    3, 2, 1... Isn't that the number of days it was supposed to take for Russia to capture Kyiv? How many years do you expect it to take now?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    I’m in Marietta, Ohio

    it is fabulously lost in l”Amerique Profonde

    America is le fucked
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,536
    NYT - Trump indicted in documents case
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,536
    Leon said:

    I’m in Marietta, Ohio

    it is fabulously lost in l”

    America is le fucked

    Many things have been said & written re: Marietta, Ohio.

    However, Leon is the FIRST to recognize it as a vortex of dystopia.

    (Though place was named in honor of Marie Antoinette.)

    Wait until you make it out to Forks, Washington!

    So did you check out Blennerhasset Island?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    Especially for Leon:


  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,536
    edited June 2023
    Leon, presume you are en route to Our (or rather My) Nation's Capital?

    What is your projected route? And how did you get to Marietta?

    BTW, the other Frenchified (originally) town along Ohio River in those parts is Gallipolis. Pronounced "Gal-la-po-LEESE" by locals. Settled by French emigres who got sold worthless land title by pack of high-placed swindlers. Credited with helping launch the hard cider industry in the Old Northwest.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    carnforth said:

    Especially for Leon:


    The Star may be looking to hire an SME to represent them?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    Excalibur said:

    The little children in russia all hate the west now. What legacy is that.

    The measure of a man, they say, is in his enemies.

    Bit of a shame that all we have is Russia.

    But it will have to do, until a major country comes along.
    Russia is reource rich with very low debt to gdp unlike the usa drowning in debt.
    How does it feel to look up at economic giants like… Mexico?
    Mexico doesnt have nuclear weapons remember that.
    Mexico’s Guacamole Grenades alone could disarm Russia on present form.

    A delicious way to go though. Do you know the recipe dates back to the Aztecs.
    By august the west will be facing total humiliation. How would that make you feel at the hands of a tinpot economy. Wouldnt feel good would it.
    No. I don’t hate the Russian people, as much as you and your Master try to divide us. From the moment the first wells started pumping in Russia, pumping out dollar signs, where has the money gone? Who does this money belong to? It belongs to the Russian people. But as the wells have pumped up dollars over recent decades, where’s the money been going? The Russian People? Or those gangsters sailing around the world or living in palatial luxury, taking the piss out of you, Excalibur.

    That money should go into a Russian Sovereign Wealth Fund, for the Russian people, now and into the future, not into the pockets of Ten Palace Putin and his cronies.

    You know your problem Excalibur? You’ve never lived in a proper democracy. I feel sorry for all the decent ordinary Russian people of the last couple of centuries who never enjoyed democracy, and how it can, to a degree, not perfectly maybe, represent and protect them, their families, and their children’s futures.

    From the moment Pavel Pestel failed, the ordinary people of Russia have never for one moment been free from oppression and greedy ideologically mad dictators. Maybe there was a whiff of a chance if Lenin’s sealed train had sunk in the Baltic Sea and so the Liberal Democrat’s remained in charge. Truth is The liberal reforms and revolutions that progressed the West these past 200 years have passed Russia by.

    If I could take back time and change that for the Russian People, I would.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668

    Leon said:

    I’m in Marietta, Ohio

    it is fabulously lost in l”

    America is le fucked

    Many things have been said & written re: Marietta, Ohio.

    However, Leon is the FIRST to recognize it as a vortex of dystopia.

    (Though place was named in honor of Marie Antoinette.)

    Wait until you make it out to Forks, Washington!

    So did you check out Blennerhasset Island?
    No, but I did go to THIS place en route from Cincy

    The ONLY major Civil War battlefield site in Ohio

    https://www.ohiohistory.org/visit/browse-historical-sites/buffington-island-battlefield-memorial-park/

    There is very little evidence of the battle,. But it is a quietly lovely stretch of the Ohio River (which toggles between gorgeous and horribly rustbelty - rather like the Rhine (so I can see why Germans sense a resemblance))

    What makes it great is that in the little park memorialising the battle there is, almost unnoticed, an ancient Indian burial mound from the Adena culture

    This part of backwoods Ohio is so unvisited the girl at Hocklingport gas station basically fainted when I came in and used a British accent. She just couldn’t get her head around the idea a British journalist would come to her corner of Ohio

    The people are almost unfailingly polite and friendly, often funny, generally quite fat, and touchingly innocent in that parochial backwoods USA way

    Still think America is a bit fucked, tho. I shall continue my reports through the week. I’m doing an unusual loop of a road trip
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668

    Leon, presume you are en route to Our (or rather My) Nation's Capital?

    What is your projected route? And how did you get to Marietta?

    BTW, the other Frenchified (originally) town along Ohio River in those parts is Gallipolis. Pronounced "Gal-la-po-LEESE" by locals. Settled by French emigres who got sold worthless land title by pack of high-placed swindlers. Credited with helping launch the hard cider industry in the Old Northwest.

    I’m gonna swing through a bit of Pennsylvania, do some Civil War stuff, then head south and maybe stay at Alexandria (with easy access to DC)

    Two or three days in DC for the museums and White House vibe, then I am gonna try and do Jamestown etc, and finally loop south and west through mad-as-possible Appalachia then Kentucky and back to Cincy to fly home

    i am filling in my mental map of America. After this the only bits I won’t have seen will be northern New England - Maine &c - and the Dakotas, Wyoming, Montana etc

    Also Wisconsin. But I can probably cope if I die without having visited Wisconsin. TBH

    Road trips remain a joy in America. It is the ONLY way to see the country, even as I despair of the way cars have ruined American cityscapes
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,141
    "California's years of major population growth have ended, and a state forecast suggests that the numbers might peak by as early as 2030 and then start to decline. At the turn of the century, when the population was about 34 million, state forecasters were predicting 45 million by 2020 and 59 million by 2040. That isn't happening."

    https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/03/17/borenstein-californias-population-boom-is-over-plan-accordingly/#:~:text=California's years of major population,and 59 million by 2040.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    God, I love travel

    I have never been here before, and I will surely never be here again. That is the essence of travel. The comfort of the unfamiliar
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    A drunk dude has just sat down at the lounge piano in this fading, sort-of-grand, obviously haunted hotel - the Lafayette, Marietta, Ohio - and started playing Scott Joplin rags really quite brilliantly
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789
    Andy_JS said:

    "California's years of major population growth have ended, and a state forecast suggests that the numbers might peak by as early as 2030 and then start to decline. At the turn of the century, when the population was about 34 million, state forecasters were predicting 45 million by 2020 and 59 million by 2040. That isn't happening."

    https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/03/17/borenstein-californias-population-boom-is-over-plan-accordingly/#:~:text=California's years of major population,and 59 million by 2040.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,887
    Leon said:

    A drunk dude has just sat down at the lounge piano in this fading, sort-of-grand, obviously haunted hotel - the Lafayette, Marietta, Ohio - and started playing Scott Joplin rags really quite brilliantly

    Yes another sign that America is fucked.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    A drunk dude has just sat down at the lounge piano in this fading, sort-of-grand, obviously haunted hotel - the Lafayette, Marietta, Ohio - and started playing Scott Joplin rags really quite brilliantly

    Yes another sign that America is fucked.
    Truly the End Times are upon us
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    A drunk dude has just sat down at the lounge piano in this fading, sort-of-grand, obviously haunted hotel - the Lafayette, Marietta, Ohio - and started playing Scott Joplin rags really quite brilliantly

    Yes another sign that America is fucked.
    It is fucked. Get out of your silly LA bubble
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,141
    edited June 2023
    I've been to Portland, Maine. Somewhere Leon hasn't been so far according to previous posts. Got there by train from Boston.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,536
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:

    Leon, presume you are en route to Our (or rather My) Nation's Capital?

    What is your projected route? And how did you get to Marietta?

    BTW, the other Frenchified (originally) town along Ohio River in those parts is Gallipolis. Pronounced "Gal-la-po-LEESE" by locals. Settled by French emigres who got sold worthless land title by pack of high-placed swindlers. Credited with helping launch the hard cider industry in the Old Northwest.

    I’m gonna swing through a bit of Pennsylvania, do some Civil War stuff, then head south and maybe stay at Alexandria (with easy access to DC)

    Two or three days in DC for the museums and White House vibe, then I am gonna try and do Jamestown etc, and finally loop south and west through mad-as-possible Appalachia then Kentucky and back to Cincy to fly home

    i am filling in my mental map of America. After this the only bits I won’t have seen will be northern New England - Maine &c - and the Dakotas, Wyoming, Montana etc

    Also Wisconsin. But I can probably cope if I die without having visited Wisconsin. TBH

    Road trips remain a joy in America. It is the ONLY way to see the country, even as I despair of the way cars have ruined American cityscapes
    Am guessing you're planning to stick to interstate highways to boggie to eastern PA, but in case not -

    > the road along the Ohio River, on either side, north from Marietta to Wheeling is lovely rural, hilly landscape with patches of industry, getting hillier and more industrial further north you go. IF you take this route, beware of Friendly, West Virginia - notorious speed trap.

    > an alternative is to head 10 miles down to Parkersburg (where you catch boat to Blennerhasset Island) then east on US 50. Then north on I-79 to Morgantown (home of WVU) then east on I-64 to Hagerstown MD which ain't far from Gettysburg. BTW, between Hagerstown and G'burg is Blue Ridge Summit, right on PA-MD line and the northern extension of Blue Ridge Mountains, notable as the birthplace of . . . wait for it . . . Wallis Warfield Simpson aka Duchess of Windsor.

    > the route above is way more scenic than taking the PA Turnpike. Which unless things have changed drastically can be a truly wretched driving experience.

    > IF you end up buzzing north then east via I-77 then I-70 to Wheeling WV then Washington PA, instead of staying on interstate > PA Turnpike, alternative is taking US 40 east via Uniontown PA and hooking up with I-64 east around Grantsville MD.

    ADDENDUM - meant to say, this last route mostly follows the trail taken by General Braddock's army (including George Washington and Daniel Boone) on his epic, fatal march through the wilderness to defeat at Fort Duquesne, later Fort Pitt.

    Which today is the Golden Triangle in downtown Pittsburgh where the Alleghany and Monongahela meet to form the Ohio River. Worth a visit in its own right.

    Braddock's Road was the basic route of the National Road, the first great federal government infrastructure project in US history.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    Boris's honours list will be published without peerages for Nadine Dorries and Alok Sharma, to avoid by-elections in marginal seats. Or not, since The Times seems unsure how far to trust its source.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/former-ministers-peerages-scrapped-to-avoid-by-elections-9gsh928cr (£££)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    Leon said:

    God, I love travel

    I have never been here before, and I will surely never be here again. That is the essence of travel. The comfort of the unfamiliar

    Weather warning as England prepares for a weekend warmer than Ibiza
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/weather-warning-as-england-prepares-for-a-weekend-warmer-than-ibiza-kn5jsq6nl (£££)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,887
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    A drunk dude has just sat down at the lounge piano in this fading, sort-of-grand, obviously haunted hotel - the Lafayette, Marietta, Ohio - and started playing Scott Joplin rags really quite brilliantly

    Yes another sign that America is fucked.
    It is fucked. Get out of your silly LA bubble
    You know, it may be a bubble. But it's a fucking awesome one.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,887
    Andy_JS said:

    I've been to Portland, Maine. Somewhere Leon hasn't been so far according to previous posts. Got there by train from Boston.

    I'm going to Portland next week.

    Any tips?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,536
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I've been to Portland, Maine. Somewhere Leon hasn't been so far according to previous posts. Got there by train from Boston.

    I'm going to Portland next week.

    Any tips?
    Lobsta roll!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Leon said:

    God, I love travel

    I have never been here before, and I will surely never be here again. That is the essence of travel. The comfort of the unfamiliar

    Did you make it to the Union Terminal in Cincinnati?


  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Oh God. Husband has answered the door to a Lib Dem and there’s a huge game of whatisawoman taking place on the doorstep. I’ve just heard the Lib Dem invoke chimpanzees.

    https://twitter.com/laurasparling/status/1666874550527590415?s=20
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,887
    And Ron DeSantis has released a campaign video, which contains the following still:



    Eagle eyed viewers will note that... err... not all the images are entirely legit.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 686
    I am surpised nobody has mentioned Donald's latest charges.... an American president being charged with espionage against his own country!!! Huge.
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