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Conservative losses: Just how low could the Tories go? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2023 in General
imageConservative losses: Just how low could the Tories go? – politicalbetting.com

Best for Britain published the results of another MRP poll on Tuesday, which had the Conservatives winning 129 seats at the next General Election. This was for 28.8% of the vote (excluding don’t knows and non-voters). 

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555

    Fishing said:

    viewcode said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

    Georgy Golitsyn pushed idea hard, with Andropov’s backing, to increase support for unilateral disarmament in the West.

    The models turned out to be wrong in a number of ways - the Iraq oil well fires in 1991 were the icing on the cake.

    This is not to say that there wouldn’t be climatic effects from a Global Thermonuclear War - but instant ice age wasn’t one of them.
    Interesting that you should mention Global Thermonuclear War as the classic film War Games was released 40 years ago this week.

    "Wouldn't you prefer a good game of Chess?"

    "Later. Let's play Global Thermonuclear War".

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXzNo0vR_dU
    Tsk! "Wouldn't you prefer a NICE game of chess?"
    Wrong.

    See here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXzNo0vR_dU, 1:18.

    There is nothing more pathetic than an inaccurate pedant.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    edited June 2023
    A good article.

    An interesting further piece of analysis might be if there's any correlation between the size of a swing at a general election compared to the last on the one hand, and the accuracy of UNS as a predictor for the total number of seats won. In other words, is UNS less (or more) likely to apply given huge swings. Perhaps it's been tried somewhere, but I might have a go at that at some point.

    Of course, beyond a certain point, the size of the governing party's majority doesn't really matter, except to gamblers, and can even be damaging if they facilitate dissent amongst its MPs, or remove excuses for its inevitable failures and cockups. There's not much difference between the legislation that a 150-majority government can pass and a 250-majority government.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Second, like the Tories at the next GE.......or maybe not, if Tom's least charitable scenarios comes to pass.

    I think we may see some swingback to the Tories after Starmer and Labour's "don't frighten the horses, be everything to everybody" platform meets a GE campaign.

    On the other hand, one should never underestimate the Tories capacity for self indulgent self immolation either.

    Both will get what they deserve.

    The Tories are heading out the window, the only remaining question is whether that window is on the second floor or the tenth....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,933
    There is no obvious enthusiasm for Labour or the LibDems. Neither Starmer nor Davey has articulated "the vision thing" (and nor has Rishi, of course). Their 2024 pitch will be Vote to get the Tories out, but then what?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited June 2023
    I am very sceptical of this poll. Two points:

    1. A huge Tory collapse would surely see the LibDems win many more seats than is being predicted.

    2. A lot of the predicted Labour wins are close to or within the margin of error. That means many would not turn out to be Labour wins.

    The adjusted number that reallocates most DKs to the Tories - and which produces something like a 370 to 220 outcome - is much more likely to be where things currently stand, based on polling and the local election results. That says to me that with some swingback the Tories have a not entirely unrealistic chance to prevent Labour getting a majority, but next to no chance of preventing Starmer being the next PM.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233
    Good article @tlg86 . And nice to see you again. Although it is a bit first-catch-your-bear, it's always nice to see these things quantified, and I do like a good graph.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Morning all, just to add that I think the Tories will probably climb back into the 30s, but always fun to look at different scenarios.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,773
    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,101
    edited June 2023
    This MRP poll is roughly in the area I think. Widest range is 100-200 seats and I think close to, or a little below, 150.

    There's something else out yesterday which should really worry tories and which may interest @MikeSmithson

    Carol Vorderman, bane of the Conservatives, along with Best of Britain are planning the biggest tactical voting operation ever seen in the UK.

    Given the anti-Conservative sentiments around, this multi-pronged tactical vote could produce some remarkable seat losses.

    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1666466720171565056

    https://bylinetimes.com/2023/06/07/plans-for-a-mass-tactical-voting-campaign-to-defeat-an-unholy-alliance-of-conservatives-and-reform-uk/


  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.
    How would it not make strategic sense to destroy the Russian defences? The flood water isn't going to stay there.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,101
    edited June 2023
    p.s. I've already explained why the swing should be taken from the GE of June 2017, not the one-off Dec 2019 'Get Brexit Done' election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    you are experiencing the worst man-made disaster in your country since Chornobyl fighting the biggest war in Europe since the Second World War, but the leading discussion is: we don't know who could have done it, we have no ideas, it must be nature itself...
    https://twitter.com/ermineah/status/1666333208495915008

    Murder by other means:
    “Russian forces are actively preventing 🇺🇦 authorities from rescuing ppl trapped by flooding in occupied areas…Local civilians are the only hope for many residents, with Russians barring 🇺🇦 rescue services & outsiders from the area”

    https://twitter.com/berlin_bridge/status/1666559226037121025
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026
    Heathener said:

    This MRP poll is roughly in the area I think. Widest range is 100-200 seats and I think close to, or a little below, 150.

    There's something else out yesterday which should really worry tories and which may interest @MikeSmithson

    Carol Vorderman, bane of the Conservatives, along with Best of Britain are planning the biggest tactical voting operation ever seen in the UK.

    Given the anti-Conservative sentiments around, this multi-pronged tactical vote could produce some remarkable seat losses.

    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1666466720171565056

    https://bylinetimes.com/2023/06/07/plans-for-a-mass-tactical-voting-campaign-to-defeat-an-unholy-alliance-of-conservatives-and-reform-uk/


    I'm truly terrified of Carol Vorderman.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026
    Fishing said:

    A good article.

    An interesting further piece of analysis might be if there's any correlation between the size of a swing at a general election compared to the last on the one hand, and the accuracy of UNS as a predictor for the total number of seats won. In other words, is UNS less (or more) likely to apply given huge swings. Perhaps it's been tried somewhere, but I might have a go at that at some point.

    Of course, beyond a certain point, the size of the governing party's majority doesn't really matter, except to gamblers, and can even be damaging if they facilitate dissent amongst its MPs, or remove excuses for its inevitable failures and cockups. There's not much difference between the legislation that a 150-majority government can pass and a 250-majority government.

    It's a good article and as the leader indicates it's a Nowcast not a Forecast.

    Crucial is where the DKs and WNVs go as approach the election itself.

    The trouble for SKS is that the more he declares on policy the more reason he gives to natural Conservative voters to rally around the flag.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.
    How would it not make strategic sense to destroy the Russian defences? The flood water isn't going to stay there.
    It renders that front impassable for weeks.
    And devastates a region of their own country for a decade.
    If you read the assessment I quoted, you'll see that it casts doubt on the Russian assertion that the destruction of the dam is of any benefit to their defences.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Heathener said:

    This MRP poll is roughly in the area I think. Widest range is 100-200 seats and I think close to, or a little below, 150.

    There's something else out yesterday which should really worry tories and which may interest @MikeSmithson

    Carol Vorderman, bane of the Conservatives, along with Best of Britain are planning the biggest tactical voting operation ever seen in the UK.

    Given the anti-Conservative sentiments around, this multi-pronged tactical vote could produce some remarkable seat losses.

    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1666466720171565056

    https://bylinetimes.com/2023/06/07/plans-for-a-mass-tactical-voting-campaign-to-defeat-an-unholy-alliance-of-conservatives-and-reform-uk/

    I'm truly terrified of Carol Vorderman.
    A well publicised independent campaign, a good year before any likely election, increasing awareness of constituencies where tactical voting might be effective...

    Nothing to worry about there, absolutely.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,773
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.
    How would it not make strategic sense to destroy the Russian defences? The flood water isn't going to stay there.
    That’s a tactical benefit

    The strategic imperative is to regain their land without devastating the infrastructure
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Tucker Carlson Trafficks in Antisemitic Tropes About Ukraine's Zelenskyy on Twitter Show Debut
    https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/2023-06-07/ty-article/.premium/tucker-carlson-trafficks-in-antisemitic-tropes-about-ukraines-zelenskyy-on-twitter-debut/
    The former Fox News host described the Jewish Zelenskyy as "sweaty and rat-like, a comedian turned oligarch, a persecutor of Christians, a friend of Blackrock" and later described him as "our shifty, dead-eyed Ukrainian 'friend' in a tracksuit." He also posited without evidence that Ukraine may have been responsible for the explosion of a Soviet-era dam in Ukraine's southern Kherson region...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,101

    Heathener said:

    This MRP poll is roughly in the area I think. Widest range is 100-200 seats and I think close to, or a little below, 150.

    There's something else out yesterday which should really worry tories and which may interest @MikeSmithson

    Carol Vorderman, bane of the Conservatives, along with Best of Britain are planning the biggest tactical voting operation ever seen in the UK.

    Given the anti-Conservative sentiments around, this multi-pronged tactical vote could produce some remarkable seat losses.

    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1666466720171565056

    https://bylinetimes.com/2023/06/07/plans-for-a-mass-tactical-voting-campaign-to-defeat-an-unholy-alliance-of-conservatives-and-reform-uk/


    I'm truly terrified of Carol Vorderman.
    I can't tell if that's sarcastic but her twitter presence is eviscerating of the tories and she is an increasing influencer. I noticed that she was a guest on Have I Got News for You the other week.

    Tories should be 'truly terrified' of her. She matches ferocious intelligence with political attack. She has become something of a heroine of mine!

    And I hope that when I'm in my sixties I look as gorgeous as she does.

  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,995
    Caroline Lucas won’t be standing as a candidate in the next election.

    I wonder what this means for Brighton Pavilion. A Labour win?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.
    How would it not make strategic sense to destroy the Russian defences? The flood water isn't going to stay there.
    That’s a tactical benefit

    The strategic imperative is to regain their land without devastating the infrastructure
    It's not even a tactical benefit.
    The flood will continue for weeks. And it's an enormous distractions of Ukrainian effort - only one side gives a damn about trying to rescue and rehouse those affected; the other is shelling them.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,933

    Fishing said:

    A good article.

    An interesting further piece of analysis might be if there's any correlation between the size of a swing at a general election compared to the last on the one hand, and the accuracy of UNS as a predictor for the total number of seats won. In other words, is UNS less (or more) likely to apply given huge swings. Perhaps it's been tried somewhere, but I might have a go at that at some point.

    Of course, beyond a certain point, the size of the governing party's majority doesn't really matter, except to gamblers, and can even be damaging if they facilitate dissent amongst its MPs, or remove excuses for its inevitable failures and cockups. There's not much difference between the legislation that a 150-majority government can pass and a 250-majority government.

    It's a good article and as the leader indicates it's a Nowcast not a Forecast.

    Crucial is where the DKs and WNVs go as approach the election itself.

    The trouble for SKS is that the more he declares on policy the more reason he gives to natural Conservative voters to rally around the flag.
    No, the trouble for SKS is that the more he declares on policy, the popular ones will be pinched by the Conservatives, for instance training thousands more medical students (Labour last year; Tories this year). And since Labour has no grand vision for the future, a combination of micro-policies and managerialism is all that is left.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,233
    Ghedebrav said:

    Caroline Lucas won’t be standing as a candidate in the next election.

    I wonder what this means for Brighton Pavilion. A Labour win?

    Good Lord. End of an era.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.
    How would it not make strategic sense to destroy the Russian defences? The flood water isn't going to stay there.
    That’s a tactical benefit

    The strategic imperative is to regain their land without devastating the infrastructure
    It sounds as though you think it would make strategic sense but you think the cost to the infrastructure would be unacceptable.

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,773
    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.
    How would it not make strategic sense to destroy the Russian defences? The flood water isn't going to stay there.
    It renders that front impassable for weeks.
    And devastates a region of their own country for a decade.
    If you read the assessment I quoted, you'll see that it casts doubt on the Russian assertion that the destruction of the dam is of any benefit to their defences.

    ISW is reporting on the impact. Not on what Russia thought would happen
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,101
    edited June 2023
    Ghedebrav said:

    Caroline Lucas won’t be standing as a candidate in the next election.

    I wonder what this means for Brighton Pavilion. A Labour win?

    Labour dramatically swept to power at the local elections there in May for the first time since 1999, defeating the Greens who lost 13 of their 20 seats.

    I'm guessing Caroline Lucas has read the writing on the wall.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brighton_and_Hove_City_Council_election
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,773
    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.
    How would it not make strategic sense to destroy the Russian defences? The flood water isn't going to stay there.
    That’s a tactical benefit

    The strategic imperative is to regain their land without devastating the infrastructure
    It's not even a tactical benefit.
    The flood will continue for weeks. And it's an enormous distractions of Ukrainian effort - only one side gives a damn about trying to rescue and rehouse those affected; the other is shelling them.
    To quibble, I’d say the destruction of defenses is unarguably a tactical benefit. But the net tactical impact is negative for the reasons you state and others.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,773
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.
    How would it not make strategic sense to destroy the Russian defences? The flood water isn't going to stay there.
    That’s a tactical benefit

    The strategic imperative is to regain their land without devastating the infrastructure
    It sounds as though you think it would make strategic sense but you think the cost to the infrastructure would be unacceptable.

    The strategic objective is to regain the land in as good a condition as possible. Blowing the dam is entirely contrary to that objective. There is no strategic benefit to Ukraine doing so.

    Do I have to be clearer?

  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,995
    Heathener said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Caroline Lucas won’t be standing as a candidate in the next election.

    I wonder what this means for Brighton Pavilion. A Labour win?

    Labour dramatically swept to power at the local elections there in May for the first time since 1999, defeating the Greens who lost 13 of their 20 seats.

    I'm guessing Caroline Lucas has read the writing on the wall.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brighton_and_Hove_City_Council_election
    Maybe. By all accounts she is popular and has a strong personal vote; plus the council as a whole does not equal the Pavilion constituency.

    If it does goes red next year, it will be a shame to lose Green representation in parliament.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,933
    Heathener said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Caroline Lucas won’t be standing as a candidate in the next election.

    I wonder what this means for Brighton Pavilion. A Labour win?

    Labour dramatically swept to power at the local elections there in May for the first time since 1999, defeating the Greens who lost 13 of their 20 seats.

    I'm guessing Caroline Lucas has read the writing on the wall.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brighton_and_Hove_City_Council_election
    Perhaps, although Caroline Lucas is in her 60s and stood down as party leader a couple of years ago, which might be seen as winding down to retirement.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    Yes, it makes no sense for the Ukranians to have done it and what is perhaps more releant, they lack the means. It isn't easy to destroy a modern dam.

    The Russians on the ther hand possessed the means and the motive. On the other hand, I wouldn't rule out sheer incompetent mismanagement. We've seen plenty of that in this war.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,995

    Heathener said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Caroline Lucas won’t be standing as a candidate in the next election.

    I wonder what this means for Brighton Pavilion. A Labour win?

    Labour dramatically swept to power at the local elections there in May for the first time since 1999, defeating the Greens who lost 13 of their 20 seats.

    I'm guessing Caroline Lucas has read the writing on the wall.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brighton_and_Hove_City_Council_election
    Perhaps, although Caroline Lucas is in her 60s and stood down as party leader a couple of years ago, which might be seen as winding down to retirement.
    Her email to members says she wants to focus on campaigning on green issues and step away from parliamentary and constituency stuff.

    Reading between the lines of that, I think you’re right. Being a good constituency MP is actually hard, time consuming work - as well as being the de facto figurehead of a party and a movement.

    It’s a shame though, and I say that not just as a Green Party member.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    edited June 2023
    There's clearly a huge desire to get the Conservatives out.

    But what do all the people desperate for a Labour Government want it to actually do? And what is Starmer actually planning to do?

    Starmer has said he's not going to raise taxes significantly and he's told the Shadow Cabinet not to make any spending promises.

    So if he isn't going to spend any money, what is he actually going to do?

    He seems to be heading for a Gordon Brown scenario - desperate to get into power but with no tangible plans to actually do anything once he gets there.

    So the public will almost certainly get their wish to get the Conservatives out - only for Starmer to come in and do precisely nothing - effectively continuing with existing policies.

    The only change will be that the existing policies will have new branding and of course the rhetoric will be different.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    There is no obvious enthusiasm for Labour or the LibDems. Neither Starmer nor Davey has articulated "the vision thing" (and nor has Rishi, of course). Their 2024 pitch will be Vote to get the Tories out, but then what?

    I think most of us will settle for that. Even just losing Braverman will make the country seem a more attractive place.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,773

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    Yes, it makes no sense for the Ukranians to have done it and what is perhaps more releant, they lack the means. It isn't easy to destroy a modern dam.

    The Russians on the ther hand possessed the means and the motive. On the other hand, I wouldn't rule out sheer incompetent mismanagement. We've seen plenty of that in this war.
    The Russians would be culpable if it was mismanagement. But the explosions heard just before the dam broke are a relevant clue.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    MikeL said:

    There's clearly a huge desire to get the Conservatives out.

    But what do all the people desperate for a Labour Government want it to actually do? And what is Starmer actually planning to do?

    Starmer has said he's not going to raise taxes significantly and he's told the Shadow Cabinet not to make any spending promises.

    So if he isn't going to spend any money, what is he actually going to do?

    He seems to be heading for a Gordon Brown scenario - desperate to get into power but with no tangible plans to actually do anything once he gets there.

    So the public will almost certainly get their wish to get the Conservatives out - only for Starmer to come in and do precisely nothing - effectively continuing with existing policies.

    Yes, I think any incoming government has very tight finances and collapsing public services across the board. Like in 1997, the first term won't seem very different on the ground except in attitude.

    Even so, the Tories need to go to protect democracy from their sleaze, lies and incompetence, and to put an end to their increasingly authoritarian tendencies. It will still be a run down country, but there will be an intention to heal it rather than divide it further.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    edited June 2023

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    There was a twitter rumour that the local Russian commander panicked after the Ukrainians bombarded Nova Kakhovka, and he blew the dam without orders to do so. Putin apparently not told until five hours later.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    Yes, it makes no sense for the Ukranians to have done it and what is perhaps more releant, they lack the means. It isn't easy to destroy a modern dam.

    The Russians on the ther hand possessed the means and the motive. On the other hand, I wouldn't rule out sheer incompetent mismanagement. We've seen plenty of that in this war.
    Well, no doubt we'll hear some official assessments of these things in due course.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    edited June 2023
    My nowcast is that Con are between 150-200 seats, and quite possibly fewer. Half or more Tory MPs will be getting their P45's, and the rest will be looking at a decade or more of ineffective opposition.

    Francis Pym was sacked by Thatcher in 1983 for saying "Landslides don't on the whole produce successful governments". He was right though, and I think too big of a majority makes a government arrogant and complacent. We saw this with New Labour too.

    Not much in the way of markets yet on the size of a majority, and the ones on Smarkets have poor liquidity.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    The Guardian have printed a reply to that terrible Rowan Atkinson articke.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/08/fact-check-why-rowan-atkinson-is-wrong-about-electric-vehicles
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    Extraordinary that a header relying on data from a polling organisation that have never heard of becomes the main thread. Its like using Baxter as fact.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    edited June 2023
    Foxy said:

    My nowcast is that Con are between 150-200 seats, and quite possibly fewer. Half or more Tory MPs will be getting their P45's, and the rest will be looking at a decade or more of ineffective opposition.

    Francis Pym was sacked by Thatcher in 1983 for saying "Landslides don't on the whole produce successful governments". He was right though, and I think too big of a majority makes a government arrogant and complacent. We saw this with New Labour too.

    Not much in the way of markets yet on the size of a majority, and the ones on Smarkets have poor liquidity.

    The hot market will be seats totals when Sporting Index put it up, but it will be a dangerous one to play.

    I agree with your current estimate, but the result stands on a knife's edge. It wouldn't take much for to shift it to an extreme outcome - say 50 or 250 seats depending on how it goes for them.

    I recommend small stakes for those willing to take the risk.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    viewcode said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

    Georgy Golitsyn pushed idea hard, with Andropov’s backing, to increase support for unilateral disarmament in the West.

    The models turned out to be wrong in a number of ways - the Iraq oil well fires in 1991 were the icing on the cake.

    This is not to say that there wouldn’t be climatic effects from a Global Thermonuclear War - but instant ice age wasn’t one of them.
    Interesting that you should mention Global Thermonuclear War as the classic film War Games was released 40 years ago this week.

    "Wouldn't you prefer a good game of Chess?"

    "Later. Let's play Global Thermonuclear War".

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXzNo0vR_dU
    Tsk! "Wouldn't you prefer a NICE game of chess?"
    Wrong.

    See here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXzNo0vR_dU, 1:18.

    There is nothing more pathetic than an inaccurate pedant.
    Is "Lets play Global Thermonuclear War" a reference to the contents of Boris Johnson's resignation "honours" list?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    kamski said:
    That's a terrible piece. The analysis on here was 10x better.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    Yes, it makes no sense for the Ukranians to have done it and what is perhaps more releant, they lack the means. It isn't easy to destroy a modern dam.

    The Russians on the ther hand possessed the means and the motive. On the other hand, I wouldn't rule out sheer incompetent mismanagement. We've seen plenty of that in this war.
    The before and after pictures would tend to suggest demolition rather than failure ?

    New satellite images showing the consequences Russia's destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam and hydroelectric power facility in southern Ukraine.
    https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1666687074244739072
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    Yes, it makes no sense for the Ukranians to have done it and what is perhaps more releant, they lack the means. It isn't easy to destroy a modern dam.

    The Russians on the ther hand possessed the means and the motive. On the other hand, I wouldn't rule out sheer incompetent mismanagement. We've seen plenty of that in this war.
    The before and after pictures would tend to suggest demolition rather than failure ?

    New satellite images showing the consequences Russia's destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam and hydroelectric power facility in southern Ukraine.
    https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1666687074244739072
    True, but I'm keeping an open mind, Nigel.

    It's rash to attribute to mischief something that can explained by incompetence.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Is this Ukraine, too ?

    Not Kakhovka Dam alone: Russia destroys dams in occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast
    https://khpg.org/en/1608812358
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited June 2023
    I remember the sheer delight of '97. It felt like the sun was shining again........ It weasn't just the fresh faced Tony Blair it was at least as much ridding ourselves of the legacy of Thatcher and the grubbiness of those that followed her........

    It feels so much like that now...........

    Sunak already sounds stale. Someone's told him the secret to getting your message across is constant repetition but what they didn't tell him is that the message itself has to resonate otherwise you sound like a speak your weight machine that's gone wonky.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Extraordinary that a header relying on data from a polling organisation that have never heard of becomes the main thread. Its like using Baxter as fact.

    I can understand the scepticism - the Cabinet Office is also apparently a client.
    https://www.focaldata.com/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited June 2023
    If Sunak squeezes DKs and RefUK as the MRP poll showed it could shift from a 1997 style result currently to a hung parliament, so still lots to play for.

    In most polls he has also increased the Tory voteshare to 25-30% from the 20-25% Truss was heading for before she resigned when the Tories really were heading for rock bottom and just 0-50 seats ie even fewer than the LDs got from 2001-2010
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    Yes, it makes no sense for the Ukranians to have done it and what is perhaps more releant, they lack the means. It isn't easy to destroy a modern dam.

    The Russians on the ther hand possessed the means and the motive. On the other hand, I wouldn't rule out sheer incompetent mismanagement. We've seen plenty of that in this war.
    The Russians would be culpable if it was mismanagement. But the explosions heard just before the dam broke are a relevant clue.
    A strong hint is that they were keeping the sluices closed to build up as much water as possible behind it for months in advance.

    This was deliberate. Their version of the Nero strategy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    There was a twitter rumour that the local Russian commander panicked after the Ukrainians bombarded Nova Kakhovka, and he blew the dam without orders to do so. Putin apparently not told until five hours later.
    There was a suggestion that the Russians wanted a small breach to gradually flood downstream. But that it was full scale due to accident or incompetence.

    This is the bunch that parked long columns of armoured vehicles in traffic jams for *weeks*. And did little when the Ukrainians would attack the lead vehicles, the rear vehicles and then attack what was in between - this was done multiple times over many days.

    As a much quoted Ukrainian soldier commented - “We are very lucky that they are so stupid.”
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013

    MikeL said:

    There's clearly a huge desire to get the Conservatives out.

    But what do all the people desperate for a Labour Government want it to actually do? And what is Starmer actually planning to do?

    Starmer has said he's not going to raise taxes significantly and he's told the Shadow Cabinet not to make any spending promises.

    So if he isn't going to spend any money, what is he actually going to do?

    He seems to be heading for a Gordon Brown scenario - desperate to get into power but with no tangible plans to actually do anything once he gets there.

    So the public will almost certainly get their wish to get the Conservatives out - only for Starmer to come in and do precisely nothing - effectively continuing with existing policies.

    The only change will be that the existing policies will have new branding and of course the rhetoric will be different.

    What do I want it to do?

    Well, Government to stop handing out lucrative contracts and appointments to its mates.

    I'd like it to stop telling barefaced lies to the public, and to Parliament.


    I'd like it to put more of the burden of paying for public services on those that can afford it rather than those that can't.

    I'd like it to act with some integrity, domestically and internationally, so that some public faith in politicians is restored.

    I'd like it to restore good trading relations with our natural trading partners, notably the EU.

    That would do for starters. Anything else would be a bonus.
    This is what I don't get about remaining Tories. This government- and with it the Conservative Party - is openly corrupt. That is not a conservative thing to support.

    And I'm not just talking about financial corruption into the BILLIONS of our money grifted to their spiv friends and patrons. I also refer to the corruption of facts. Lying to parliament is a Bad Thing with a very rapid and swift penalty. Utterly corrupted by the Tories who don't just lie, but try to insist their lie is the truth no matter how egregious that claim is.

    That is also not a conservative thing to support. True conservatives surely need to save the soul of their party, because at the moment they are the anti-Conservatives. Is there no level of filth that some people are prepared to swim in? And for what - to defend a party whose policies they largely oppose and whose principles are a mockery of what they hold dear?

    I can see an awful lot of Tory voters - true lifelong conservatives - trying to save the soul of the party by killing the anti-Tories at the coming election. Kill it with electoral fire. And then you can have your party back.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    Yes, it makes no sense for the Ukranians to have done it and what is perhaps more releant, they lack the means. It isn't easy to destroy a modern dam.

    The Russians on the ther hand possessed the means and the motive. On the other hand, I wouldn't rule out sheer incompetent mismanagement. We've seen plenty of that in this war.
    The before and after pictures would tend to suggest demolition rather than failure ?

    New satellite images showing the consequences Russia's destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam and hydroelectric power facility in southern Ukraine.
    https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1666687074244739072
    True, but I'm keeping an open mind, Nigel.

    It's rash to attribute to mischief something that can explained by incompetence.
    With the Russian military, bet on self harming incompetence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited June 2023

    I am very sceptical of this poll. Two points:

    1. A huge Tory collapse would surely see the LibDems win many more seats than is being predicted.

    2. A lot of the predicted Labour wins are close to or within the margin of error. That means many would not turn out to be Labour wins.

    The adjusted number that reallocates most DKs to the Tories - and which produces something like a 370 to 220 outcome - is much more likely to be where things currently stand, based on polling and the local election results. That says to me that with some swingback the Tories have a not entirely unrealistic chance to prevent Labour getting a majority, but next to no chance of preventing Starmer being the next PM.

    Starmer could end up like Harold Wilson though in 1964 and February 1974 not Blair 1997, ie becomes UK PM with Labour winning most seats in the UK but without a majority in England if most DKs go Tory and Sunak squeezes Reform. The local elections for Labour certainly looked more 1964 and 1974 than pre 1997.

    In which case if Starmer uses Scottish and Welsh Labour MPs to vote on English domestic policy and English laws then it would surely see a huge demand to return to EVEL or even for an English Parliament
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089

    MikeL said:

    There's clearly a huge desire to get the Conservatives out.

    But what do all the people desperate for a Labour Government want it to actually do? And what is Starmer actually planning to do?

    Starmer has said he's not going to raise taxes significantly and he's told the Shadow Cabinet not to make any spending promises.

    So if he isn't going to spend any money, what is he actually going to do?

    He seems to be heading for a Gordon Brown scenario - desperate to get into power but with no tangible plans to actually do anything once he gets there.

    So the public will almost certainly get their wish to get the Conservatives out - only for Starmer to come in and do precisely nothing - effectively continuing with existing policies.

    The only change will be that the existing policies will have new branding and of course the rhetoric will be different.

    What do I want it to do?

    Well, Government to stop handing out lucrative contracts and appointments to its mates.

    I'd like it to stop telling barefaced lies to the public, and to Parliament.

    I'd like it to put more of the burden of paying for public services on those that can afford it rather than those that can't.

    I'd like it to act with some integrity, domestically and internationally, so that some public faith in politicians is restored.

    I'd like it to restore good trading relations with our natural trading partners, notably the EU.

    That would do for starters. Anything else would be a bonus.
    And the point is that there's nothing there that will cost money. Same goes for making the planning system work better.

    If "existing policies" is taken to mean a balance between tax and spend, that's unlikely to change much. The British public doesn't show any sign of wanting a radically smaller state, and stuff costs what it costs. (I'm expecting some "we didn't know the Tory mess was this bad" rises in 2025, but not massive ones.)

    But if that means attention goes on other reforms, that's probably a good thing.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:
    That's a terrible piece. The analysis on here was 10x better.
    I like Rowan Atkinson a lot, both as an entertainer and as a free speech campaigner. I thought he was spinning a load of tired disproven tropes about EVs, but then again he fitted a V16 engine to the car built for Johnny English 2...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    On topic - the seismic shifts in voting patterns over the last few years have created a game of 52 card pickup. Blue Wall, Red Wall…

    Perhaps most importantly, both main parties have, at times, been stripped back to their deep core vote. An increased pool of voters have become used to changing parties, I think.

    Add in tactical voting, possible voter strikes against the Tories…. and only constituency level poling will help us.

    This makes prediction beyond the following, a coin flip.

    1) Labour largest party nailed on
    2) Labour majority more probable than not.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Interesting thread.
    It should be noted that only last week she was calling for the wholesale extermination of the Ukrainian people.

    As Russia's propagandist-in-chief Margarita Simonyan broaches the idea of ending the war, ostensibly because Ukraine is getting too strong to counter without an attack on the West itself, it's worth taking a moment to reflect on how Russian propaganda works...
    https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1666503453135237121
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Ghedebrav said:

    Caroline Lucas won’t be standing as a candidate in the next election.

    I wonder what this means for Brighton Pavilion. A Labour win?

    Quite possibly - wards in her constituency were some of the few not eviscerated by Labour in the locals.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    Yes, it makes no sense for the Ukranians to have done it and what is perhaps more releant, they lack the means. It isn't easy to destroy a modern dam.

    The Russians on the ther hand possessed the means and the motive. On the other hand, I wouldn't rule out sheer incompetent mismanagement. We've seen plenty of that in this war.
    The Russians would be culpable if it was mismanagement. But the explosions heard just before the dam broke are a relevant clue.
    A strong hint is that they were keeping the sluices closed to build up as much water as possible behind it for months in advance.

    This was deliberate. Their version of the Nero strategy.
    If it was a big explosion, we should hear about seismic data. This would be able to tell the difference between explosives and a lot of energy being released by the dam breaking.

    There are monitoring stations all over Europe (for a start) - any actual data, yet?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    This MRP poll is roughly in the area I think. Widest range is 100-200 seats and I think close to, or a little below, 150.

    There's something else out yesterday which should really worry tories and which may interest @MikeSmithson

    Carol Vorderman, bane of the Conservatives, along with Best of Britain are planning the biggest tactical voting operation ever seen in the UK.

    Given the anti-Conservative sentiments around, this multi-pronged tactical vote could produce some remarkable seat losses.

    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1666466720171565056

    https://bylinetimes.com/2023/06/07/plans-for-a-mass-tactical-voting-campaign-to-defeat-an-unholy-alliance-of-conservatives-and-reform-uk/


    I'm truly terrified of Carol Vorderman.
    I can't tell if that's sarcastic but her twitter presence is eviscerating of the tories and she is an increasing influencer. I noticed that she was a guest on Have I Got News for You the other week.

    Tories should be 'truly terrified' of her. She matches ferocious intelligence with political attack. She has become something of a heroine of mine!

    And I hope that when I'm in my sixties I look as gorgeous as she does.

    You were in you’re sixties at one point…
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,773

    MikeL said:

    There's clearly a huge desire to get the Conservatives out.

    But what do all the people desperate for a Labour Government want it to actually do? And what is Starmer actually planning to do?

    Starmer has said he's not going to raise taxes significantly and he's told the Shadow Cabinet not to make any spending promises.

    So if he isn't going to spend any money, what is he actually going to do?

    He seems to be heading for a Gordon Brown scenario - desperate to get into power but with no tangible plans to actually do anything once he gets there.

    So the public will almost certainly get their wish to get the Conservatives out - only for Starmer to come in and do precisely nothing - effectively continuing with existing policies.

    The only change will be that the existing policies will have new branding and of course the rhetoric will be different.

    What do I want it to do?

    Well, Government to stop handing out lucrative contracts and appointments to its mates.

    I'd like it to stop telling barefaced lies to the public, and to Parliament.


    I'd like it to put more of the burden of paying for public services on those that can afford it rather than those that can't.

    I'd like it to act with some integrity, domestically and internationally, so that some public faith in politicians is restored.

    I'd like it to restore good trading relations with our natural trading partners, notably the EU.

    That would do for starters. Anything else would be a bonus.
    This is what I don't get about remaining Tories. This government- and with it the Conservative Party - is openly corrupt. That is not a conservative thing to support.

    And I'm not just talking about financial corruption into the BILLIONS of our money grifted to their spiv friends and patrons. I also refer to the corruption of facts. Lying to parliament is a Bad Thing with a very rapid and swift penalty. Utterly corrupted by the Tories who don't just lie, but try to insist their lie is the truth no matter how egregious that claim is.

    That is also not a conservative thing to support. True conservatives surely need to save the soul of their party, because at the moment they are the anti-Conservatives. Is there no level of filth that some people are prepared to swim in? And for what - to defend a party whose policies they largely oppose and whose principles are a mockery of what they hold dear?

    I can see an awful lot of Tory voters - true lifelong conservatives - trying to save the soul of the party by killing the anti-Tories at the coming election. Kill it with electoral fire. And then you can have your party back.
    Your last paragraph relies on two things, that the rump of remaining Tories are the sensible ones - unlikely, and that if they get wiped out that they learn the right lessons.

    My concern is that a large defeat will leave those in solid seats, the Bill Cash and Edward Leigh’s of the world running the show who have learned nothing and not remotely adapted to the modern world.

    They will also come to the wrong conclusion that they lost because they were “too centrist” and so lurch to bonkers. This will further destroy the Tories as a going concern for a long long time like the Liberals.

    The best situation for Tories (short of an unlikely victory) is a modest defeat where the evidence to them is clear that despite all the shit over the last few years and the damage to their standing they managed to get close with Sunak and a more centrist approach with nods to the right and so replacing him with crazy isn’t the answer.

    It’s also not great for the country to have parties in power with whopping majorities unless they actually have a decent plan how to fix things - either you get bad decisions that are un-opposable due to the majority or you get complacency such as under Blair where a huge majority, where he could have changed the face of the country, is wasted because they are too worried about the next election and losing the broad church that got them that majority and so don’t want to do anything to scare the horses so you end up with stagnation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    Yes, it makes no sense for the Ukranians to have done it and what is perhaps more releant, they lack the means. It isn't easy to destroy a modern dam.

    The Russians on the ther hand possessed the means and the motive. On the other hand, I wouldn't rule out sheer incompetent mismanagement. We've seen plenty of that in this war.
    The Russians would be culpable if it was mismanagement. But the explosions heard just before the dam broke are a relevant clue.
    A strong hint is that they were keeping the sluices closed to build up as much water as possible behind it for months in advance.

    This was deliberate. Their version of the Nero strategy.
    If it was a big explosion, we should hear about seismic data. This would be able to tell the difference between explosives and a lot of energy being released by the dam breaking.

    There are monitoring stations all over Europe (for a start) - any actual data, yet?
    There were reports of windows shaking up to 80km away, but not yet seen any seismographs. The difference between a structural failure and an explosion will be very clear.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,089

    MikeL said:

    There's clearly a huge desire to get the Conservatives out.

    But what do all the people desperate for a Labour Government want it to actually do? And what is Starmer actually planning to do?

    Starmer has said he's not going to raise taxes significantly and he's told the Shadow Cabinet not to make any spending promises.

    So if he isn't going to spend any money, what is he actually going to do?

    He seems to be heading for a Gordon Brown scenario - desperate to get into power but with no tangible plans to actually do anything once he gets there.

    So the public will almost certainly get their wish to get the Conservatives out - only for Starmer to come in and do precisely nothing - effectively continuing with existing policies.

    The only change will be that the existing policies will have new branding and of course the rhetoric will be different.

    What do I want it to do?

    Well, Government to stop handing out lucrative contracts and appointments to its mates.

    I'd like it to stop telling barefaced lies to the public, and to Parliament.


    I'd like it to put more of the burden of paying for public services on those that can afford it rather than those that can't.

    I'd like it to act with some integrity, domestically and internationally, so that some public faith in politicians is restored.

    I'd like it to restore good trading relations with our natural trading partners, notably the EU.

    That would do for starters. Anything else would be a bonus.
    This is what I don't get about remaining Tories. This government- and with it the Conservative Party - is openly corrupt. That is not a conservative thing to support.

    And I'm not just talking about financial corruption into the BILLIONS of our money grifted to their spiv friends and patrons. I also refer to the corruption of facts. Lying to parliament is a Bad Thing with a very rapid and swift penalty. Utterly corrupted by the Tories who don't just lie, but try to insist their lie is the truth no matter how egregious that claim is.

    That is also not a conservative thing to support. True conservatives surely need to save the soul of their party, because at the moment they are the anti-Conservatives. Is there no level of filth that some people are prepared to swim in? And for what - to defend a party whose policies they largely oppose and whose principles are a mockery of what they hold dear?

    I can see an awful lot of Tory voters - true lifelong conservatives - trying to save the soul of the party by killing the anti-Tories at the coming election. Kill it with electoral fire. And then you can have your party back.
    That's the hope.

    But, unlike sane Labour in 2015-20, it's not easy to identify the remnants from which such a party could arise again. The survivors of a 2024 defeat could easily be the worst of the party, not the best.

    I have to believe that they're there, but at the moment they're scuttling around in the long grass, like the mammals were 66 million years ago.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760
    edited June 2023

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    Yes, it makes no sense for the Ukranians to have done it and what is perhaps more releant, they lack the means. It isn't easy to destroy a modern dam.

    The Russians on the ther hand possessed the means and the motive. On the other hand, I wouldn't rule out sheer incompetent mismanagement. We've seen plenty of that in this war.
    The Russians would be culpable if it was mismanagement. But the explosions heard just before the dam broke are a relevant clue.
    A strong hint is that they were keeping the sluices closed to build up as much water as possible behind it for months in advance.

    This was deliberate. Their version of the Nero strategy.
    If it was a big explosion, we should hear about seismic data. This would be able to tell the difference between explosives and a lot of energy being released by the dam breaking.

    There are monitoring stations all over Europe (for a start) - any actual data, yet?
    Not that I am aware of.

    One other thought - much of that water was used not only for nuclear cooling but for irrigation. In one of the world's most important agricultural areas. Expect food prices to jump again this autumn.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited June 2023
    Morning all.

    All of the failures of acquiescent modern BBC journalism on show on R4 Today this morning. A ten minute interview with the head of Palantir Technologies, to spout his panglossian cliches about AI and data grabbing, with virtually no pushback from Nick Robinson whatsoever. Essentially a long company advert, except on an issue with very far-reaching social, moral and military implications for all of us. Brian Redhead in the '80s would have had none of it, nor even John Humphrys in the 1990s.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,773

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    There was a twitter rumour that the local Russian commander panicked after the Ukrainians bombarded Nova Kakhovka, and he blew the dam without orders to do so. Putin apparently not told until five hours later.
    That wouldn’t surprise me, although whether it is panic or a decision made locally without consultation, who knows.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    HYUFD said:

    I am very sceptical of this poll. Two points:

    1. A huge Tory collapse would surely see the LibDems win many more seats than is being predicted.

    2. A lot of the predicted Labour wins are close to or within the margin of error. That means many would not turn out to be Labour wins.

    The adjusted number that reallocates most DKs to the Tories - and which produces something like a 370 to 220 outcome - is much more likely to be where things currently stand, based on polling and the local election results. That says to me that with some swingback the Tories have a not entirely unrealistic chance to prevent Labour getting a majority, but next to no chance of preventing Starmer being the next PM.

    Starmer could end up like Harold Wilson though in 1964 and February 1974 not Blair 1997, ie becomes UK PM with Labour winning most seats in the UK but without a majority in England if most DKs go Tory and Sunak squeezes Reform. The local elections for Labour certainly looked more 1964 and 1974 than pre 1997.

    In which case if Starmer uses Scottish and Welsh Labour MPs to vote on English domestic policy and English laws then it would surely see a huge demand to return to EVEL or even for an English Parliament
    I think the next parliament will go much further than that. The existing constitutional settlement has failed, and our constitution has been on its knees for a decade. Issues:
    1. Scottish independence referendum of 2014 split the country and it's still split
    2. Patent unfairness of election results - nearly 4m UKIP votes in 2015 and not a single MP elected
    3. Very clear unhappiness amongst millions of English voters reflected in the Brexit referendum. Nothing settled, they're still unhappy
    4. Both big parties threw out ludicrous leaders - Corbyn vs Johnson
    5. The collapse into madness and illegality of the 2017 parliament
    6. The collapse into illegality of the 2019 parliament
    7. Northern Ireland teetering on the edge of a resumption of violence for several years as the defeated unionists throw a strop now that Sinn Fein are top

    If we assume that there is a thumping working majority for ABC parties, I expect that heavyweight constitutional reforms will be a key part of the 2024 parliament. Whilst there are basic issues around restoring public services to deal with, I expect there will be a desire not to miss the big picture stuff as the 1997 parliament did.

    If the Tories are slaughtered and reduced to a sub-1997 pile, perhaps even they would welcome the electoral reforms which would be a key part of this. And before anyone says "that isn't the priority of voters", it is the wrapper around all other issues. People are increasingly fed up with politics and politicians. We need to restore that trust or we can't ever do anything more than fiddle around the edges.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Extraordinary that a header relying on data from a polling organisation that have never heard of becomes the main thread. Its like using Baxter as fact.

    Ridiculous post. What's the point of PB if such debates can't be aired?

    The header notes: "There are, of course, a whole load of caveats to this analysis.". It's about generating discussion, which this does.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,760

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    There was a twitter rumour that the local Russian commander panicked after the Ukrainians bombarded Nova Kakhovka, and he blew the dam without orders to do so. Putin apparently not told until five hours later.
    That wouldn’t surprise me, although whether it is panic or a decision made locally without consultation, who knows.
    I think it very unlikely that such a decision would be made entirely locally. Again, we come back to this had been prepared for some time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Nigelb said:

    Is this Ukraine, too ?

    Not Kakhovka Dam alone: Russia destroys dams in occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast
    https://khpg.org/en/1608812358

    It looks a plan to impede armoured movement, and channel it into well defended bottlenecks.

    I recall deliberate flooding of agricultural land was part of the defence of Kyiv last year too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    The first twelve will go towards replacing some if the ex Soviet ground attack aircraft donated to Ukraine.
    Korea expects to deliver 30+ of the more capable air defence version in the next few years.

    Korea, Poland celebrate rollout of Warsaw's first FA-50
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=352491
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    boulay said:

    MikeL said:

    There's clearly a huge desire to get the Conservatives out.

    But what do all the people desperate for a Labour Government want it to actually do? And what is Starmer actually planning to do?

    Starmer has said he's not going to raise taxes significantly and he's told the Shadow Cabinet not to make any spending promises.

    So if he isn't going to spend any money, what is he actually going to do?

    He seems to be heading for a Gordon Brown scenario - desperate to get into power but with no tangible plans to actually do anything once he gets there.

    So the public will almost certainly get their wish to get the Conservatives out - only for Starmer to come in and do precisely nothing - effectively continuing with existing policies.

    The only change will be that the existing policies will have new branding and of course the rhetoric will be different.

    What do I want it to do?

    Well, Government to stop handing out lucrative contracts and appointments to its mates.

    I'd like it to stop telling barefaced lies to the public, and to Parliament.


    I'd like it to put more of the burden of paying for public services on those that can afford it rather than those that can't.

    I'd like it to act with some integrity, domestically and internationally, so that some public faith in politicians is restored.

    I'd like it to restore good trading relations with our natural trading partners, notably the EU.

    That would do for starters. Anything else would be a bonus.
    This is what I don't get about remaining Tories. This government- and with it the Conservative Party - is openly corrupt. That is not a conservative thing to support.

    And I'm not just talking about financial corruption into the BILLIONS of our money grifted to their spiv friends and patrons. I also refer to the corruption of facts. Lying to parliament is a Bad Thing with a very rapid and swift penalty. Utterly corrupted by the Tories who don't just lie, but try to insist their lie is the truth no matter how egregious that claim is.

    That is also not a conservative thing to support. True conservatives surely need to save the soul of their party, because at the moment they are the anti-Conservatives. Is there no level of filth that some people are prepared to swim in? And for what - to defend a party whose policies they largely oppose and whose principles are a mockery of what they hold dear?

    I can see an awful lot of Tory voters - true lifelong conservatives - trying to save the soul of the party by killing the anti-Tories at the coming election. Kill it with electoral fire. And then you can have your party back.
    Your last paragraph relies on two things, that the rump of remaining Tories are the sensible ones - unlikely, and that if they get wiped out that they learn the right lessons.

    My concern is that a large defeat will leave those in solid seats, the Bill Cash and Edward Leigh’s of the world running the show who have learned nothing and not remotely adapted to the modern world.

    They will also come to the wrong conclusion that they lost because they were “too centrist” and so lurch to bonkers. This will further destroy the Tories as a going concern for a long long time like the Liberals.

    The best situation for Tories (short of an unlikely victory) is a modest defeat where the evidence to them is clear that despite all the shit over the last few years and the damage to their standing they managed to get close with Sunak and a more centrist approach with nods to the right and so replacing him with crazy isn’t the answer.

    It’s also not great for the country to have parties in power with whopping majorities unless they actually have a decent plan how to fix things - either you get bad decisions that are un-opposable due to the majority or you get complacency such as under Blair where a huge majority, where he could have changed the face of the country, is wasted because they are too worried about the next election and losing the broad church that got them that majority and so don’t want to do anything to scare the horses so you end up with stagnation.
    Absolutely spot on
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is this Ukraine, too ?

    Not Kakhovka Dam alone: Russia destroys dams in occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast
    https://khpg.org/en/1608812358

    It looks a plan to impede armoured movement, and channel it into well defended bottlenecks.

    I recall deliberate flooding of agricultural land was part of the defence of Kyiv last year too.
    See also D-Day in Normandy, with the flooded terrain behind the beaches.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    Yes, it makes no sense for the Ukranians to have done it and what is perhaps more releant, they lack the means. It isn't easy to destroy a modern dam.

    The Russians on the ther hand possessed the means and the motive. On the other hand, I wouldn't rule out sheer incompetent mismanagement. We've seen plenty of that in this war.
    Plus, of course, the Russians had been keeping the sluice gates closed for the last several weeks with the effect that the reservoir was at its maximum and coming over the top of the dam in places. That looks to me like a deliberate policy to maximise the damage that was going to be caused when they blew it.

    I suspect that their timing was off and what they wanted to do was to catch the Ukrainian attack on the ground that was going to be flooded, taking out many of these fancy, new, western tanks. They presumably thought that the attack was under way.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    HYUFD said:
    WTAF? He's supposed to be running the country, not schmoozing around in front of half full baseball stadiums.

    Beyond the actual pointlessness of it all, why on earth does he think publicising it on his twitter account helps him one iota?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013

    MikeL said:

    There's clearly a huge desire to get the Conservatives out.

    But what do all the people desperate for a Labour Government want it to actually do? And what is Starmer actually planning to do?

    Starmer has said he's not going to raise taxes significantly and he's told the Shadow Cabinet not to make any spending promises.

    So if he isn't going to spend any money, what is he actually going to do?

    He seems to be heading for a Gordon Brown scenario - desperate to get into power but with no tangible plans to actually do anything once he gets there.

    So the public will almost certainly get their wish to get the Conservatives out - only for Starmer to come in and do precisely nothing - effectively continuing with existing policies.

    The only change will be that the existing policies will have new branding and of course the rhetoric will be different.

    What do I want it to do?

    Well, Government to stop handing out lucrative contracts and appointments to its mates.

    I'd like it to stop telling barefaced lies to the public, and to Parliament.

    I'd like it to put more of the burden of paying for public services on those that can afford it rather than those that can't.

    I'd like it to act with some integrity, domestically and internationally, so that some public faith in politicians is restored.

    I'd like it to restore good trading relations with our natural trading partners, notably the EU.

    That would do for starters. Anything else would be a bonus.
    And the point is that there's nothing there that will cost money. Same goes for making the planning system work better.

    If "existing policies" is taken to mean a balance between tax and spend, that's unlikely to change much. The British public doesn't show any sign of wanting a radically smaller state, and stuff costs what it costs. (I'm expecting some "we didn't know the Tory mess was this bad" rises in 2025, but not massive ones.)

    But if that means attention goes on other reforms, that's probably a good thing.
    Stuff doesn't cost what it costs though. We're being taken to the cleaners by the spiv state. It costs absurd amounts more to do things in the UK than in our neighbouring countries. HS2 costs more per mile than a Ladder to Heaven. We tip ever larger record amounts into an NHS which is then on starvation rations on the front line.

    It isn't how much money we spend which is the problem, it is how we spend it. The Tories in opposition used to whine about PFI contracts. And then in power presided over a huge explosion in new PFI contracts. Where these are silly - £40 for a lightbulb anecdotage - then renegotiate them. Contracts which are patently unfair are illegal for consumer matters, simply extend that principle into other areas.

    The Tory nutter right want a bonfire of EU regulations. What we need is a bonfire of contracts. Cut tens of billions out of HS2 not by shortening it, but by removing the cost of building it to last for 4.6bn years and the contractor being on the hook if it is destroyed by the Sun going nova. Etc etc etc.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    boulay said:

    The best situation for Tories (short of an unlikely victory) is a modest defeat where the evidence to them is clear that despite all the shit over the last few years and the damage to their standing they managed to get close with Sunak and a more centrist approach with nods to the right and so replacing him with crazy isn’t the answer.

    But the message needs to be they could have got even closer if Rishi had not kept the crazies in his cabinet.

    Cruella as HS, they deserve a shoeing...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    boulay said:

    MikeL said:

    There's clearly a huge desire to get the Conservatives out.

    But what do all the people desperate for a Labour Government want it to actually do? And what is Starmer actually planning to do?

    Starmer has said he's not going to raise taxes significantly and he's told the Shadow Cabinet not to make any spending promises.

    So if he isn't going to spend any money, what is he actually going to do?

    He seems to be heading for a Gordon Brown scenario - desperate to get into power but with no tangible plans to actually do anything once he gets there.

    So the public will almost certainly get their wish to get the Conservatives out - only for Starmer to come in and do precisely nothing - effectively continuing with existing policies.

    The only change will be that the existing policies will have new branding and of course the rhetoric will be different.

    What do I want it to do?

    Well, Government to stop handing out lucrative contracts and appointments to its mates.

    I'd like it to stop telling barefaced lies to the public, and to Parliament.


    I'd like it to put more of the burden of paying for public services on those that can afford it rather than those that can't.

    I'd like it to act with some integrity, domestically and internationally, so that some public faith in politicians is restored.

    I'd like it to restore good trading relations with our natural trading partners, notably the EU.

    That would do for starters. Anything else would be a bonus.
    This is what I don't get about remaining Tories. This government- and with it the Conservative Party - is openly corrupt. That is not a conservative thing to support.

    And I'm not just talking about financial corruption into the BILLIONS of our money grifted to their spiv friends and patrons. I also refer to the corruption of facts. Lying to parliament is a Bad Thing with a very rapid and swift penalty. Utterly corrupted by the Tories who don't just lie, but try to insist their lie is the truth no matter how egregious that claim is.

    That is also not a conservative thing to support. True conservatives surely need to save the soul of their party, because at the moment they are the anti-Conservatives. Is there no level of filth that some people are prepared to swim in? And for what - to defend a party whose policies they largely oppose and whose principles are a mockery of what they hold dear?

    I can see an awful lot of Tory voters - true lifelong conservatives - trying to save the soul of the party by killing the anti-Tories at the coming election. Kill it with electoral fire. And then you can have your party back.
    Your last paragraph relies on two things, that the rump of remaining Tories are the sensible ones - unlikely, and that if they get wiped out that they learn the right lessons.

    My concern is that a large defeat will leave those in solid seats, the Bill Cash and Edward Leigh’s of the world running the show who have learned nothing and not remotely adapted to the modern world.

    They will also come to the wrong conclusion that they lost because they were “too centrist” and so lurch to bonkers. This will further destroy the Tories as a going concern for a long long time like the Liberals.

    The best situation for Tories (short of an unlikely victory) is a modest defeat where the evidence to them is clear that despite all the shit over the last few years and the damage to their standing they managed to get close with Sunak and a more centrist approach with nods to the right and so replacing him with crazy isn’t the answer.

    It’s also not great for the country to have parties in power with whopping majorities unless they actually have a decent plan how to fix things - either you get bad decisions that are un-opposable due to the majority or you get complacency such as under Blair where a huge majority, where he could have changed the face of the country, is wasted because they are too worried about the next election and losing the broad church that got them that majority and so don’t want to do anything to scare the horses so you end up with stagnation.
    Sane people in Labour managed to save the party from me and BJO, so the Tories can at least try.

    As I posted before, I expect that electoral and constitutional reform will be an inevitable big agenda item in the next parliament. Which means that the restored Tory party may not need distinguished psychopaths like Sir Edward Leigh - they could form their own party.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    HYUFD said:
    WTAF? He's supposed to be running the country, not schmoozing around in front of half full baseball stadiums.

    Beyond the actual pointlessness of it all, why on earth does he think publicising it on his twitter account helps him one iota?
    He is meeting Biden today and was invited to the baseball

    When Starmer becomes PM and is invited to events are you going to say the same ?
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761

    HYUFD said:
    WTAF? He's supposed to be running the country, not schmoozing around in front of half full baseball stadiums.

    Beyond the actual pointlessness of it all, why on earth does he think publicising it on his twitter account helps him one iota?
    He is meeting Biden today and was invited to the baseball

    When Starmer becomes PM and is invited to events are you going to say the same ?
    No Starmer should get on with the job
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    boulay said:

    MikeL said:

    There's clearly a huge desire to get the Conservatives out.

    But what do all the people desperate for a Labour Government want it to actually do? And what is Starmer actually planning to do?

    Starmer has said he's not going to raise taxes significantly and he's told the Shadow Cabinet not to make any spending promises.

    So if he isn't going to spend any money, what is he actually going to do?

    He seems to be heading for a Gordon Brown scenario - desperate to get into power but with no tangible plans to actually do anything once he gets there.

    So the public will almost certainly get their wish to get the Conservatives out - only for Starmer to come in and do precisely nothing - effectively continuing with existing policies.

    The only change will be that the existing policies will have new branding and of course the rhetoric will be different.

    What do I want it to do?

    Well, Government to stop handing out lucrative contracts and appointments to its mates.

    I'd like it to stop telling barefaced lies to the public, and to Parliament.


    I'd like it to put more of the burden of paying for public services on those that can afford it rather than those that can't.

    I'd like it to act with some integrity, domestically and internationally, so that some public faith in politicians is restored.

    I'd like it to restore good trading relations with our natural trading partners, notably the EU.

    That would do for starters. Anything else would be a bonus.
    This is what I don't get about remaining Tories. This government- and with it the Conservative Party - is openly corrupt. That is not a conservative thing to support.

    And I'm not just talking about financial corruption into the BILLIONS of our money grifted to their spiv friends and patrons. I also refer to the corruption of facts. Lying to parliament is a Bad Thing with a very rapid and swift penalty. Utterly corrupted by the Tories who don't just lie, but try to insist their lie is the truth no matter how egregious that claim is.

    That is also not a conservative thing to support. True conservatives surely need to save the soul of their party, because at the moment they are the anti-Conservatives. Is there no level of filth that some people are prepared to swim in? And for what - to defend a party whose policies they largely oppose and whose principles are a mockery of what they hold dear?

    I can see an awful lot of Tory voters - true lifelong conservatives - trying to save the soul of the party by killing the anti-Tories at the coming election. Kill it with electoral fire. And then you can have your party back.
    Your last paragraph relies on two things, that the rump of remaining Tories are the sensible ones - unlikely, and that if they get wiped out that they learn the right lessons.

    My concern is that a large defeat will leave those in solid seats, the Bill Cash and Edward Leigh’s of the world running the show who have learned nothing and not remotely adapted to the modern world.

    They will also come to the wrong conclusion that they lost because they were “too centrist” and so lurch to bonkers. This will further destroy the Tories as a going concern for a long long time like the Liberals.

    The best situation for Tories (short of an unlikely victory) is a modest defeat where the evidence to them is clear that despite all the shit over the last few years and the damage to their standing they managed to get close with Sunak and a more centrist approach with nods to the right and so replacing him with crazy isn’t the answer.

    It’s also not great for the country to have parties in power with whopping majorities unless they actually have a decent plan how to fix things - either you get bad decisions that are un-opposable due to the majority or you get complacency such as under Blair where a huge majority, where he could have changed the face of the country, is wasted because they are too worried about the next election and losing the broad church that got them that majority and so don’t want to do anything to scare the horses so you end up with stagnation.
    Sane people in Labour managed to save the party from me and BJO, so the Tories can at least try.

    As I posted before, I expect that electoral and constitutional reform will be an inevitable big agenda item in the next parliament. Which means that the restored Tory party may not need distinguished psychopaths like Sir Edward Leigh - they could form their own party.
    I assume you are referring to HOL reform and PR but frankly with the serious issues facing the UK over the next few years constitutional reform is not going to be seen as a priority
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:
    WTAF? He's supposed to be running the country, not schmoozing around in front of half full baseball stadiums.

    Beyond the actual pointlessness of it all, why on earth does he think publicising it on his twitter account helps him one iota?
    He is on a formal visit to the US and was invited to go to the baseball as part of his visit, don't try and suggest Starmer wouldn't jump at the chance to throw first pitch at the baseball if he gets the chance on a US visit if he becomes PM!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Chris said:

    Interesting assessment from the Institute for the Study of War of the effect of the flooding on Russian defences on the east bank of the Dnipro.

    If the Russians did blow the dam, the lack of coordination on their part is astonishing. But could it have been the Ukrainians after all?

    The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

    Why would the Ukrainians do that? It makes zero strategic sense.

    It was Russian incompetence and/or willingness to sacrifice assets so it didn’t look like it was them
    There was a twitter rumour that the local Russian commander panicked after the Ukrainians bombarded Nova Kakhovka, and he blew the dam without orders to do so. Putin apparently not told until five hours later.
    There was a suggestion that the Russians wanted a small breach to gradually flood downstream. But that it was full scale due to accident or incompetence.

    This is the bunch that parked long columns of armoured vehicles in traffic jams for *weeks*. And did little when the Ukrainians would attack the lead vehicles, the rear vehicles and then attack what was in between - this was done multiple times over many days.

    As a much quoted Ukrainian soldier commented - “We are very lucky that they are so stupid.”
    Yes, as a general principle one should favour cock-up over conspiracy as an explanation for events, but this seems to be even more true for the Russian military.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    HYUFD said:
    WTAF? He's supposed to be running the country, not schmoozing around in front of half full baseball stadiums.

    Beyond the actual pointlessness of it all, why on earth does he think publicising it on his twitter account helps him one iota?
    He is meeting Biden today and was invited to the baseball

    When Starmer becomes PM and is invited to events are you going to say the same ?
    No Starmer should get on with the job
    You really do not have much knowledge of international leader meetings if you think Starmer will not attend social functions as part of the itinerary
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited June 2023

    boulay said:

    MikeL said:

    There's clearly a huge desire to get the Conservatives out.

    But what do all the people desperate for a Labour Government want it to actually do? And what is Starmer actually planning to do?

    Starmer has said he's not going to raise taxes significantly and he's told the Shadow Cabinet not to make any spending promises.

    So if he isn't going to spend any money, what is he actually going to do?

    He seems to be heading for a Gordon Brown scenario - desperate to get into power but with no tangible plans to actually do anything once he gets there.

    So the public will almost certainly get their wish to get the Conservatives out - only for Starmer to come in and do precisely nothing - effectively continuing with existing policies.

    The only change will be that the existing policies will have new branding and of course the rhetoric will be different.

    What do I want it to do?

    Well, Government to stop handing out lucrative contracts and appointments to its mates.

    I'd like it to stop telling barefaced lies to the public, and to Parliament.


    I'd like it to put more of the burden of paying for public services on those that can afford it rather than those that can't.

    I'd like it to act with some integrity, domestically and internationally, so that some public faith in politicians is restored.

    I'd like it to restore good trading relations with our natural trading partners, notably the EU.

    That would do for starters. Anything else would be a bonus.
    This is what I don't get about remaining Tories. This government- and with it the Conservative Party - is openly corrupt. That is not a conservative thing to support.

    And I'm not just talking about financial corruption into the BILLIONS of our money grifted to their spiv friends and patrons. I also refer to the corruption of facts. Lying to parliament is a Bad Thing with a very rapid and swift penalty. Utterly corrupted by the Tories who don't just lie, but try to insist their lie is the truth no matter how egregious that claim is.

    That is also not a conservative thing to support. True conservatives surely need to save the soul of their party, because at the moment they are the anti-Conservatives. Is there no level of filth that some people are prepared to swim in? And for what - to defend a party whose policies they largely oppose and whose principles are a mockery of what they hold dear?

    I can see an awful lot of Tory voters - true lifelong conservatives - trying to save the soul of the party by killing the anti-Tories at the coming election. Kill it with electoral fire. And then you can have your party back.
    Your last paragraph relies on two things, that the rump of remaining Tories are the sensible ones - unlikely, and that if they get wiped out that they learn the right lessons.

    My concern is that a large defeat will leave those in solid seats, the Bill Cash and Edward Leigh’s of the world running the show who have learned nothing and not remotely adapted to the modern world.

    They will also come to the wrong conclusion that they lost because they were “too centrist” and so lurch to bonkers. This will further destroy the Tories as a going concern for a long long time like the Liberals.

    The best situation for Tories (short of an unlikely victory) is a modest defeat where the evidence to them is clear that despite all the shit over the last few years and the damage to their standing they managed to get close with Sunak and a more centrist approach with nods to the right and so replacing him with crazy isn’t the answer.

    It’s also not great for the country to have parties in power with whopping majorities unless they actually have a decent plan how to fix things - either you get bad decisions that are un-opposable due to the majority or you get complacency such as under Blair where a huge majority, where he could have changed the face of the country, is wasted because they are too worried about the next election and losing the broad church that got them that majority and so don’t want to do anything to scare the horses so you end up with stagnation.
    Sane people in Labour managed to save the party from me and BJO, so the Tories can at least try.

    As I posted before, I expect that electoral and constitutional reform will be an inevitable big agenda item in the next parliament. Which means that the restored Tory party may not need distinguished psychopaths like Sir Edward Leigh - they could form their own party.
    And PR also guarantees Farage's Reform UK and a new Corbynite left party 15-20% of the seats in the House of Commons each, so far from removing the hard right and hard left, PR just increases their power.

    See Germany with PR where the AfD now on 19% and Linke has seats in the German Parliament too or Italy with PR where the hard right Meloni is now PM, or Spain with PR where Vox will win significant numbers of seats in the Spanish Parliament next month on current polls or Ireland with PR where SF tops the polls or Sweden with PR where the Sweden Democrats are now second biggest party or New Zealand with PR where New Zealand First have often won MPs.

    See also Israel with PR where hard right nationalist and Orthodox Jewish parties have great influence over government. Hitler and the Nazis came to power in Germany too after using PR to get a foothold in the Reichstag
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,773

    MikeL said:

    There's clearly a huge desire to get the Conservatives out.

    But what do all the people desperate for a Labour Government want it to actually do? And what is Starmer actually planning to do?

    Starmer has said he's not going to raise taxes significantly and he's told the Shadow Cabinet not to make any spending promises.

    So if he isn't going to spend any money, what is he actually going to do?

    He seems to be heading for a Gordon Brown scenario - desperate to get into power but with no tangible plans to actually do anything once he gets there.

    So the public will almost certainly get their wish to get the Conservatives out - only for Starmer to come in and do precisely nothing - effectively continuing with existing policies.

    The only change will be that the existing policies will have new branding and of course the rhetoric will be different.

    What do I want it to do?

    Well, Government to stop handing out lucrative contracts and appointments to its mates.

    I'd like it to stop telling barefaced lies to the public, and to Parliament.


    I'd like it to put more of the burden of paying for public services on those that can afford it rather than those that can't.

    I'd like it to act with some integrity, domestically and internationally, so that some public faith in politicians is restored.

    I'd like it to restore good trading relations with our natural trading partners, notably the EU.

    That would do for starters. Anything else would be a bonus.
    This is what I don't get about remaining Tories. This government- and with it the Conservative Party - is openly corrupt. That is not a conservative thing to support.

    And I'm not just talking about financial corruption into the BILLIONS of our money grifted to their spiv friends and patrons. I also refer to the corruption of facts. Lying to parliament is a Bad Thing with a very rapid and swift penalty. Utterly corrupted by the Tories who don't just lie, but try to insist their lie is the truth no matter how egregious that claim is.

    That is also not a conservative thing to support. True conservatives surely need to save the soul of their party, because at the moment they are the anti-Conservatives. Is there no level of filth that some people are prepared to swim in? And for what - to defend a party whose policies they largely oppose and whose principles are a mockery of what they hold dear?

    I can see an awful lot of Tory voters - true lifelong conservatives - trying to save the soul of the party by killing the anti-Tories at the coming election. Kill it with electoral fire. And then you can have your party back.
    Your last paragraph relies on two things, that the rump of remaining Tories are the sensible ones - unlikely, and that if they get wiped out that they learn the right lessons.

    Morning all.

    All of the failures of acquiescent modern BBC journalism on show on R4 Today this morning. A ten minute interview with the head of Palantir Technologies, to spout his panglossian cliches about AI and data grabbing, with virtually no pushback from Nick Robinson whatsoever. Essentially a long company advert, except on an issue with very far-reaching social, moral and military implications for all of us. Brian Redhead in the '80s would have had none of it, nor even John Humphrys in the 1990s.

    It’s interesting how people listen to the same thing and hear different things. The thing I took away from the interview was Nick Robinson arguing that the UK was irrelevant in the AI issue, he even called the UK a “tiddler” compared to the U.S. and EU and China which was debunked quite forcefully by the head of Palantir who explained quite clearly to Nick Robinson that we have a very useful approach to privacy and data that the EU doesn’t have, we have a large proportion of the top Unis in the world, we have a great number of experts and a legal and cultural openness to be able to be a key player.

    So whilst you see an advert for Palantir I see one for the UK despite our media’s finest trying to do the country down. Perhaps the British media might find that one day instead of criticising the country for being crap they could realise that the crappest part is the media and sort themselves out before casting their prejudices.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 3,773
    edited June 2023
    Deleted
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    WTAF? He's supposed to be running the country, not schmoozing around in front of half full baseball stadiums.

    Beyond the actual pointlessness of it all, why on earth does he think publicising it on his twitter account helps him one iota?
    He is on a formal visit to the US and was invited to go to the baseball as part of his visit, don't try and suggest Starmer wouldn't jump at the chance to throw first pitch at the baseball if he gets the chance on a US visit if he becomes PM!
    Of course he would and it would only be polite

    The idea Starmer would not attend social events in the course of his duties is utter nonsense
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    150 floor, 200 if it stays like now, 250 if they recover a bit more, 300 a massive long shot
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Tom Harwood response:

    '@tomhfh
    ·
    39m
    Thank you Caroline from the bottom of our hearts for helping this country end its troubling addiction to economic growth.

    You really smashed it out of the park on this one. Our sluggish economy owes you and your nimby friends a lot as to how it got her'
    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1666701124278136832?s=20
    '@tomhfh
    ·
    34m
    Truly thank you Caroline for you and your party campaigning so successfully against our economic prosperity💚

    Against new runways
    Against new housing
    Against new train lines
    Against new nuclear
    Against competitive tax rates
    Against new solar farms
    Against new wind infrastructure'
    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1666702457961955328?s=20
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,773
    boulay said:

    MikeL said:

    There's clearly a huge desire to get the Conservatives out.

    But what do all the people desperate for a Labour Government want it to actually do? And what is Starmer actually planning to do?

    Starmer has said he's not going to raise taxes significantly and he's told the Shadow Cabinet not to make any spending promises.

    So if he isn't going to spend any money, what is he actually going to do?

    He seems to be heading for a Gordon Brown scenario - desperate to get into power but with no tangible plans to actually do anything once he gets there.

    So the public will almost certainly get their wish to get the Conservatives out - only for Starmer to come in and do precisely nothing - effectively continuing with existing policies.

    The only change will be that the existing policies will have new branding and of course the rhetoric will be different.

    What do I want it to do?

    Well, Government to stop handing out lucrative contracts and appointments to its mates.

    I'd like it to stop telling barefaced lies to the public, and to Parliament.


    I'd like it to put more of the burden of paying for public services on those that can afford it rather than those that can't.

    I'd like it to act with some integrity, domestically and internationally, so that some public faith in politicians is restored.

    I'd like it to restore good trading relations with our natural trading partners, notably the EU.

    That would do for starters. Anything else would be a bonus.
    This is what I don't get about remaining Tories. This government- and with it the Conservative Party - is openly corrupt. That is not a conservative thing to support.

    And I'm not just talking about financial corruption into the BILLIONS of our money grifted to their spiv friends and patrons. I also refer to the corruption of facts. Lying to parliament is a Bad Thing with a very rapid and swift penalty. Utterly corrupted by the Tories who don't just lie, but try to insist their lie is the truth no matter how egregious that claim is.

    That is also not a conservative thing to support. True conservatives surely need to save the soul of their party, because at the moment they are the anti-Conservatives. Is there no level of filth that some people are prepared to swim in? And for what - to defend a party whose policies they largely oppose and whose principles are a mockery of what they hold dear?

    I can see an awful lot of Tory voters - true lifelong conservatives - trying to save the soul of the party by killing the anti-Tories at the coming election. Kill it with electoral fire. And then you can have your party back.
    Your last paragraph relies on two things, that the rump of remaining Tories are the sensible ones - unlikely, and that if they get wiped out that they learn the right lessons.

    Morning all.

    All of the failures of acquiescent modern BBC journalism on show on R4 Today this morning. A ten minute interview with the head of Palantir Technologies, to spout his panglossian cliches about AI and data grabbing, with virtually no pushback from Nick Robinson whatsoever. Essentially a long company advert, except on an issue with very far-reaching social, moral and military implications for all of us. Brian Redhead in the '80s would have had none of it, nor even John Humphrys in the 1990s.

    It’s interesting how people listen to the same thing and hear different things. The thing I took away from the interview was Nick Robinson arguing that the UK was irrelevant in the AI issue, he even called the UK a “tiddler” compared to the U.S. and EU and China which was debunked quite forcefully by the head of Palantir who explained quite clearly to Nick Robinson that we have a very useful approach to privacy and data that the EU doesn’t have, we have a large proportion of the top Unis in the world, we have a great number of experts and a legal and cultural openness to be able to be a key player.

    So whilst you see an advert for Palantir I see one for the UK despite our media’s finest trying to do the country down. Perhaps the British media might find that one day instead of criticising the country for being crap they could realise that the crappest part is the media and sort themselves out before casting their prejudices.
    Unusually the world service was at it too.

    Their line was “Rishi’s holding a summit but the EU and China are already writing rules” rather missing the point that it’s an attempt to agree on *global* rules
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,171
    edited June 2023
    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    MikeL said:

    There's clearly a huge desire to get the Conservatives out.

    But what do all the people desperate for a Labour Government want it to actually do? And what is Starmer actually planning to do?

    Starmer has said he's not going to raise taxes significantly and he's told the Shadow Cabinet not to make any spending promises.

    So if he isn't going to spend any money, what is he actually going to do?

    He seems to be heading for a Gordon Brown scenario - desperate to get into power but with no tangible plans to actually do anything once he gets there.

    So the public will almost certainly get their wish to get the Conservatives out - only for Starmer to come in and do precisely nothing - effectively continuing with existing policies.

    The only change will be that the existing policies will have new branding and of course the rhetoric will be different.

    What do I want it to do?

    Well, Government to stop handing out lucrative contracts and appointments to its mates.

    I'd like it to stop telling barefaced lies to the public, and to Parliament.


    I'd like it to put more of the burden of paying for public services on those that can afford it rather than those that can't.

    I'd like it to act with some integrity, domestically and internationally, so that some public faith in politicians is restored.

    I'd like it to restore good trading relations with our natural trading partners, notably the EU.

    That would do for starters. Anything else would be a bonus.
    This is what I don't get about remaining Tories. This government- and with it the Conservative Party - is openly corrupt. That is not a conservative thing to support.

    And I'm not just talking about financial corruption into the BILLIONS of our money grifted to their spiv friends and patrons. I also refer to the corruption of facts. Lying to parliament is a Bad Thing with a very rapid and swift penalty. Utterly corrupted by the Tories who don't just lie, but try to insist their lie is the truth no matter how egregious that claim is.

    That is also not a conservative thing to support. True conservatives surely need to save the soul of their party, because at the moment they are the anti-Conservatives. Is there no level of filth that some people are prepared to swim in? And for what - to defend a party whose policies they largely oppose and whose principles are a mockery of what they hold dear?

    I can see an awful lot of Tory voters - true lifelong conservatives - trying to save the soul of the party by killing the anti-Tories at the coming election. Kill it with electoral fire. And then you can have your party back.
    Your last paragraph relies on two things, that the rump of remaining Tories are the sensible ones - unlikely, and that if they get wiped out that they learn the right lessons.

    My concern is that a large defeat will leave those in solid seats, the Bill Cash and Edward Leigh’s of the world running the show who have learned nothing and not remotely adapted to the modern world.

    They will also come to the wrong conclusion that they lost because they were “too centrist” and so lurch to bonkers. This will further destroy the Tories as a going concern for a long long time like the Liberals.

    The best situation for Tories (short of an unlikely victory) is a modest defeat where the evidence to them is clear that despite all the shit over the last few years and the damage to their standing they managed to get close with Sunak and a more centrist approach with nods to the right and so replacing him with crazy isn’t the answer.

    It’s also not great for the country to have parties in power with whopping majorities unless they actually have a decent plan how to fix things - either you get bad decisions that are un-opposable due to the majority or you get complacency such as under Blair where a huge majority, where he could have changed the face of the country, is wasted because they are too worried about the next election and losing the broad church that got them that majority and so don’t want to do anything to scare the horses so you end up with stagnation.
    Sane people in Labour managed to save the party from me and BJO, so the Tories can at least try.

    As I posted before, I expect that electoral and constitutional reform will be an inevitable big agenda item in the next parliament. Which means that the restored Tory party may not need distinguished psychopaths like Sir Edward Leigh - they could form their own party.
    And PR also guarantees Farage's Reform UK and a new Corbynite left party 15-20% of the seats in the House of Commons each, so far from removing the hard right and hard left, PR just increases their power.

    See Germany with PR where the AfD now on 19% and Linke has seats in the German Parliament too or Italy with PR where the hard right Meloni is now PM, or Spain with PR where Vox will win significant numbers of seats in the Spanish Parliament next month on current polls or Ireland with PR where SF tops the polls or Sweden with PR where the Sweden Democrats are now second biggest party or New Zealand with PR where New Zealand First have often won MPs.

    See also Israel with PR where hard right nationalist and Orthodox Jewish parties have great influence over government. Hitler and the Nazis came to power in Germany too after using PR to get a foothold in the Reichstag
    There are extremist parties elected under FPTP too: see India, Bosnia and even the US. Other countries with PR don’t have significant extremist parties doing well: e.g., South Africa, New Zealand, Malta, Japan.
This discussion has been closed.