Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
Lysglimt Johansen is the leader of Norwegian far-right political party Alliance - Alternative for Norway. He is a virulent antisemite, a Holocaust denier, and an open supporter of Norwegian mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik.
I have canvassed, and I can confidently say I both hate it and am not particularly good at it.
It's very weird knocking on the door of a random stranger and demanding to know their politics.
I did it for the LDs at the Eastleigh by-election in 2013, which was a bit strange because I wasn't really a LD supporter and lived 150 miles away. Someone asked me about the Rosebowl stadium and I wasn't sure what they were talking about. They were very pleased when I turned up at their HQ and offered to do the job for 10 hours though.
Do you live in a marginal? I live in what has turned from a Conservative safe seat to a Conservative / Lib Dem marginal, with the local council now firmly in Lib Dem hands. And at the last GE we got canvassed by the main three parties.
None this year, as we did not have a LE...
We have a local by-election here in Newham.
Today saw the Labour candidate and 40 helpers going out and about delivering. Have to say I was rather envious - if I got half a dozen out to help I thought I was doing well. I imagine the Epping Conservatives, rather like East Ham Labour, have plenty of helpers they can call on if required.
Not sure if @HYUFD will be tempted to come and help the Conservative cause in either of the two forthcoming Newham by-elections - the Conservatives have held help from Barking, Dagenham & Rainham and Ilford but their five or six helpers looks a bit weak next to the Labour squadron.
The Greens are working the Boleyn Ward - will be interesting to see how they get on.
We have enough to do trying to hold and win back council seats from LDs and Independents and help neighbouring parliamentary marginals like Harlow and Chingford.
I am sure a few neighbouring boroughs will help but Newham doesn't have a single Tory borough councillor as Epping Forest doesn't have a single Labour district councillor and I doubt these by elections will change that
"A shocking number of birds are in trouble We know better than ever how to help endangered birds, with notable conservation successes.
...
The North American Breeding Bird Survey, organized by the US Geological Survey and Environment Canada, has enlisted thousands of participants to observe birds along roadsides each June since 1966. Audubon’s Christmas Bird Count, which began in 1900, encourages people to join a one-day bird tally scheduled in a three-week window during the holiday season. There are shorebird censuses and waterfowl surveys, all powered by citizen scientists.
This wealth of longitudinal recordings started to turn up signs of distress as far back as 1989, Marra says, when researchers analyzed data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and concluded that declines were occurring among most of the species that breed in forests of the eastern United States and Canada, then migrate to the tropics.
Thirty years later, Marra and colleagues reassessed the situation using multiple bird-monitoring datasets from North America along with data on nocturnal bird migrations from weather radars. They found stunning losses. Since 1970, the team reported in Science in 2019, the number of birds in North America has declined by nearly 3 billion: a 29 percent loss of abundance. The paper used several methods for estimating changes in population sizes, Marra says, and “they all told us the same thing, which was that we’re watching the process of extinction happen.”"
It is absolutely distressing. And happening in our lifetime
So many crises all at once. AI to climate change to extinction to Covid to Ukraine-and-Putin to ALIENS
Are they all somehow linked?
A clever dude I met last week said "I get the feeling these are indeed the End Times, but they are also, let's face it, Really Interesting Times"
On the AI front - I think you've used Midjourney quite a bit. If you've not tried some of the new open-source models, they're well worth a shot. The new RunDiffusionFX ones are quite impressive especially (also 'Epic Reality' for photo-realistic stuff). https://rundiffusion.com/rundiffusion-fx
Also some of the papers exploring ideas for GPT/LLM's and the "Tree of Thoughts" are giving really quite impressive gains. Also quite a good paper exploring why adding "Let's work this out step-by-step to get the correct answer." to the end of a prompt improves the accuracy so much (and work on making it even better)
Had drinks with a friend yesterday in beautiful Ted LAsso-land, and he told me an AI expert mate of his is speculating that AI's are not always "hallucinating" when they get things wrong, what we are seeing might be genuine qualia: this is the AI actively and consciously wondering, out loud
My friend has gone from total AI skeptic to Fuck they could be sentient: in about two weeks
Spooky
Are you in LA?
No, Camden. But off to an amazing place tomorrow....
Cincinnati
Eeeek
Check out Over the Rhine, IF it's still there.
Was chatting this AM with graduate of U of Cincinnati, who worked as student in a VERY old hardware store in the Over the Rhine 'hood. From when the Queen City (aka Porkopolis back in the day) was the biggest city in US east of the Alleghenies and a magnet for German immigrants pre-Civil War.
Be sure to quaff at least one ice-cold Hudepohl while in Cincy.
AND do NOT say ANTHING bad about Pete Rose. Especially while quaffing Hudepohl.
TBF, I'm not looking forwards to Cincy, but BA are so desperate to get coverage they are laying on the Concorde Lounge, Biz Class, endless free booze, so it could be worse
More importantly, I have tacked on a personal roadtrip afterwards: Virginia, DC, Maryland, Kentucky, or something like that. I am reading Battle Cry of Freedom as research and it is SUPERB
I had no idea the South, pre Civil War, had real designs on Cuba and Mexico as new slave states to be added to the Confederacy. Came very close
I have canvassed, and I can confidently say I both hate it and am not particularly good at it.
It's very weird knocking on the door of a random stranger and demanding to know their politics.
Might be easier to just wear a picture of Thatcher on your top with a camera on it, then use AI to analyse the instincive reaction of those who see it. You'd only need to have their attention for a single frame, so you could get through a lot more area in a day.
Any political consultants I am available on a consultancy basis if you want more ideas to bring canvassing into the 21st century (whilst also keeping it in the 1980s as they like).
"It is difficult, given what Silicon Valley has become, to convey exactly what it was like in the 1970s and ‘80s. It was a remarkable centre of technology, but also the embodiment of the spirit of capitalism at its very best, as epitomised by garage start-ups like Apple. Greed, of course, is always a human motivation, but the early Valley culture was created by entrepreneurial outsiders who genuinely wanted to make the world better."
Lysglimt Johansen is the leader of Norwegian far-right political party Alliance - Alternative for Norway. He is a virulent antisemite, a Holocaust denier, and an open supporter of Norwegian mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik.
While I’m prepared to believe that Corbyn didn’t know who he was, the fact that the Nordic fascist had a lot of nice things to say about magic grandpa speaks volumes
I'm sure the cause of any admiration from the chap will not lead to any self reflection on Corbyn's part.
I have canvassed, and I can confidently say I both hate it and am not particularly good at it.
It's very weird knocking on the door of a random stranger and demanding to know their politics.
I did it for the LDs at the Eastleigh by-election in 2013, which was a bit strange because I wasn't really a LD supporter and lived 150 miles away. Someone asked me about the Rosebowl stadium and I wasn't sure what they were talking about. They were very pleased when I turned up at their HQ and offered to do the job for 10 hours though.
This tantalising anecdote feels like it could be fleshed out even more!
Lysglimt Johansen is the leader of Norwegian far-right political party Alliance - Alternative for Norway. He is a virulent antisemite, a Holocaust denier, and an open supporter of Norwegian mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik.
I would be amazed if Corbyn knew who he was. Whether it should be his job to do due diligence on stuff like that is another question.
You believe he literally.... just bumped into him? Really? What are the chances?
Are you jealous? Can't imagine you'd turn down the chance of a meeting with Johansen. Or Breivik for that matter.
I wouldn't assume that picture is genuine. And it's not unbelievable that Johansen would turn up at a pro-Assange meeting and try to get his photo taken with J Corbyn. Certainly what Johansen stands for is what Corbyn has strongly opposed all his political life.
I have canvassed, and I can confidently say I both hate it and am not particularly good at it.
It's very weird knocking on the door of a random stranger and demanding to know their politics.
And you weren't trying to do that over the Christmas holidays.
Husband is increasingly convinced that Sunak and his ministers, knowing that they're headed into Opposition (or leaving Parliament, for those with majorities of less than 10,000,) will make like John Major or Gordon Brown and hang on by their fingernails until the last possible moment. The prospect of which will doubtless fill the electorate with joy.
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
This is why the Tories can and will win the next general election. It won't be about housing or the NHS. It will be about immigration. It will be this spectacular event happened and do you want to bleat about how awful it was or do you want to admit life is tough and vote for a party that defends you. And here's another event. And here's what the rightwing tabloids are saying...and so on. They will keep their majority.
Lysglimt Johansen is the leader of Norwegian far-right political party Alliance - Alternative for Norway. He is a virulent antisemite, a Holocaust denier, and an open supporter of Norwegian mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik.
I would be amazed if Corbyn knew who he was. Whether it should be his job to do due diligence on stuff like that is another question.
You believe he literally.... just bumped into him? Really? What are the chances?
Are you jealous? Can't imagine you'd turn down the chance of a meeting with Johansen. Or Breivik for that matter.
I wouldn't assume that picture is genuine. And it's not unbelievable that Johansen would turn up at a pro-Assange meeting and try to get his photo taken with J Corbyn. Certainly what Johansen stands for is what Corbyn has strongly opposed all his political life.
There will always be photos of politicians with awful people, and it isn't the case that means they suddenly share all values and views, though opponents will naturally claim it is so.
Questions really arise if the figures involved are attending/promoting the same event(s), or despite being opposed in a great many ways, are aligned on a particular topic and making the same arguments, especially if one or both are referencing the other intentionally while the do it.
Lysglimt Johansen is the leader of Norwegian far-right political party Alliance - Alternative for Norway. He is a virulent antisemite, a Holocaust denier, and an open supporter of Norwegian mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik.
While I’m prepared to believe that Corbyn didn’t know who he was, the fact that the Nordic fascist had a lot of nice things to say about magic grandpa speaks volumes
I'm sure the cause of any admiration from the chap will not lead to any self reflection on Corbyn's part.
"It is difficult, given what Silicon Valley has become, to convey exactly what it was like in the 1970s and ‘80s. It was a remarkable centre of technology, but also the embodiment of the spirit of capitalism at its very best, as epitomised by garage start-ups like Apple. Greed, of course, is always a human motivation, but the early Valley culture was created by entrepreneurial outsiders who genuinely wanted to make the world better."
A major problem is that the whole area of tech was new and amazing in the 1970s and 1980s. There was Big Blue, and a few other major monolithic companies doing the same old, same old, and nothing else. The environment was rich for innovators. And the cost of entry was low.
So they innovated. The vast majority of companies failed, but some - like MS, Apple, Oracle, Dell, Intel, etc, survived and thrived. Then came the Internet, and that tech's monstrosities: Google, Facebook, Amazon etc. But as it becomes more expensive to develop new tech to compete, these companies place active burdens in front of competitors.
As a little-known example, I'm really nervous about Google's power over the Internet standards.
Can anyone imagine a tiny Cambridge company thinking: "We can't find a microprocessor that fits our requirements. Let's design our own!" and designing an architecture that you almost certainly have on your person at the moment?
(There's a brilliant book, I think it's called 'Big Blue', about IBM's attempt to make a PC. The one that succeeded was their *third* attempt - and that only succeeded when they gave Don Estridge his own group and permission to operate outside the company's usual processes.)
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
This is why the Tories can and will win the next general election. It won't be about housing or the NHS. It will be about immigration.
No, Starmer will in in 2024. For sure
The Brits - especially post Brexit - are notably tolerant. We feel we have control now. So we tolerate higher migration of qualified people
But it may well be a huge issue by 2029, when a Tory party under, say, Badenoch, or a further right populist party under Fuck knows, could win big
To realise this, you need to thought-game a situation where we are like Italy, facing 500,000 people crossing the Channel in dinghies, without about 5 being returned every 9 months. At that point we'd probably vote for Hitler
Bad news. Leach is not fantastic but he does a job. England really need a spinner. For me Moeen has to be the answer but he is not much of a threat and his 20:20 career has, if anything, made him an even more defensive option rather than an attacking one.
Play Wood and use Root as the spinner.
Yes, I suspect they will go the four-seamer route. There's a lot to commend it. You can play Broad and Anderson with less fear for their fitness and stamina, and you can certainly pick Wood for his extreme pace. Robinson is the obvious 'fourth' and has the additional merit of being a decent bat too for a number eight. There are other candidates though and it likely there would be rotation as the series develops. England are lucky to have strength in depth in this department and should use it.
There is no strength in depth in the spin department. I'm not sure what the issue is with Moen but if he were up to it and available they wouldn't have kept playing Leach, who is reliable but no great threat at Test level. The other spinners - Bess, Jack, and heaven forbid Dawson - don't bear thining about.
Very wrong on leach vs Moen. Leach has 124 wickets from 30 odd tests. Mo 195 from twice that. Leach gets a serious amount of action on the ball. That he’s played in every match under Stokes speaks volumes.
I actually agree with Leon on this one. It's like how people claim AI created music is worthless because it has no real meaning behind it, no true creation, but the fact is you can play human vs AI created stuff next to each other and without being told which is which the listenere will enjoy and feel emotion to both without distinction.
Ultimately it may well be AI is never 'truly' sentient and just reaches a very convincing imitation of it. But at that point there is no real difference.
Will AI ever be able to create a convincing Radiohead album...
Lysglimt Johansen is the leader of Norwegian far-right political party Alliance - Alternative for Norway. He is a virulent antisemite, a Holocaust denier, and an open supporter of Norwegian mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik.
I would be amazed if Corbyn knew who he was. Whether it should be his job to do due diligence on stuff like that is another question.
You believe he literally.... just bumped into him? Really? What are the chances?
Are you jealous? Can't imagine you'd turn down the chance of a meeting with Johansen. Or Breivik for that matter.
I wouldn't assume that picture is genuine. And it's not unbelievable that Johansen would turn up at a pro-Assange meeting and try to get his photo taken with J Corbyn. Certainly what Johansen stands for is what Corbyn has strongly opposed all his political life.
Does anyone know, or is prepared to opine, what will happen to The Witcher? Is he getting shipped off to ADX Florence or not? Is it up to eBay Priti now?
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
This is why the Tories can and will win the next general election. It won't be about housing or the NHS. It will be about immigration.
No, Starmer will in in 2024. For sure
The Brits - especially post Brexit - are notably tolerant. We feel we have control now. So we tolerate higher migration of qualified people
But it may well be a huge issue by 2029, when a Tory party under, say, Badenoch, or a further right populist party under Fuck knows, could win big
To realise this, you need to thought-game a situation where we are like Italy, facing 500,000 people crossing the Channel in dinghies, without about 5 being returned every 9 months. At that point we'd probably vote for Hitler
Most immigrants aren't qualified. Admittedly I haven't seen the stats but this is the perception. Many Brits aren't tolerant at all of foreigners.
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
This is why the Tories can and will win the next general election. It won't be about housing or the NHS. It will be about immigration.
No, Starmer will in in 2024. For sure
The Brits - especially post Brexit - are notably tolerant. We feel we have control now. So we tolerate higher migration of qualified people
But it may well be a huge issue by 2029, when a Tory party under, say, Badenoch, or a further right populist party under Fuck knows, could win big
To realise this, you need to thought-game a situation where we are like Italy, facing 500,000 people crossing the Channel in dinghies, without about 5 being returned every 9 months. At that point we'd probably vote for Hitler
It's not controlled and the slines are dickhurt over it. Hence hysterical shit about boats in the Mail/Telegraph.
Lysglimt Johansen is the leader of Norwegian far-right political party Alliance - Alternative for Norway. He is a virulent antisemite, a Holocaust denier, and an open supporter of Norwegian mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik.
While I’m prepared to believe that Corbyn didn’t know who he was, the fact that the Nordic fascist had a lot of nice things to say about magic grandpa speaks volumes
I'm sure the cause of any admiration from the chap will not lead to any self reflection on Corbyn's part.
Nor should it.
That's astonishingly defensive and close minded. Self reflection doesn't mean you have to change your view, just, well, to reflect. I thought you were in favour of people reflecting on their views and words more than they do.
Hypothetically, if a very nasty person praised something I said or did, or used what I said/did to promote their own ideology and politics which are opposed to mine, I'd take a second to reflect on why they did so, and whether the way I put my view or the action I took inadvertently bolstered that nasty person's nasty ideology . But I might be able to conclude that even nasty people don't have universally nasty views, and I cannot help it if the rather broad point I made overlapped with something they found able to endorse.
I personally don't think that is what happens when people overlap on the extreme ends of the far left or far right on specific issues, I think it is classic horseshoe theory, but people will disagree on the details there. But whilst you don't cast someone out because nasty person X supported or praised them, there's nothing wrong with them wondering why that person did so.
IMO well worth a read if you're interested in that part of history. It's interesting to think how history might be different if Estridge hadn't died in 1985.
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
This is why the Tories can and will win the next general election. It won't be about housing or the NHS. It will be about immigration.
No, Starmer will in in 2024. For sure
The Brits - especially post Brexit - are notably tolerant. We feel we have control now. So we tolerate higher migration of qualified people
But it may well be a huge issue by 2029, when a Tory party under, say, Badenoch, or a further right populist party under Fuck knows, could win big
To realise this, you need to thought-game a situation where we are like Italy, facing 500,000 people crossing the Channel in dinghies, without about 5 being returned every 9 months. At that point we'd probably vote for Hitler
It's not controlled and the slines are dickhurt over it. Hence hysterical shit about boats in the Mail/Telegraph.
Who the heck are the slines? Google is no help.
Also, he did say 'feel' we have control, not have control.
I disagree on that point though, I don't think the Tories at least feel we have control and as you say are very mad about that.
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
This is why the Tories can and will win the next general election. It won't be about housing or the NHS. It will be about immigration.
No, Starmer will in in 2024. For sure
The Brits - especially post Brexit - are notably tolerant. We feel we have control now. So we tolerate higher migration of qualified people
But it may well be a huge issue by 2029, when a Tory party under, say, Badenoch, or a further right populist party under Fuck knows, could win big
To realise this, you need to thought-game a situation where we are like Italy, facing 500,000 people crossing the Channel in dinghies, without about 5 being returned every 9 months. At that point we'd probably vote for Hitler
Most immigrants aren't qualified. Admittedly I haven't seen the stats but this is the perception. Many Brits aren't tolerant at all of foreigners.
I actually think Brits are pretty tolerant.
But we all know most of the people crossing in boats are taking the piss: Indians were the largest group the month before last, and Albanians have slowed to a trickle from over 12k last year since that new deal came in.
The much bigger issue is the Med and that's where Europe has the real problem.
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
This is why the Tories can and will win the next general election. It won't be about housing or the NHS. It will be about immigration.
No, Starmer will in in 2024. For sure
The Brits - especially post Brexit - are notably tolerant. We feel we have control now. So we tolerate higher migration of qualified people
But it may well be a huge issue by 2029, when a Tory party under, say, Badenoch, or a further right populist party under Fuck knows, could win big
To realise this, you need to thought-game a situation where we are like Italy, facing 500,000 people crossing the Channel in dinghies, without about 5 being returned every 9 months. At that point we'd probably vote for Hitler
It's not controlled and the slines are dickhurt over it. Hence hysterical shit about boats in the Mail/Telegraph.
Who the heck are the slines? Google is no help.
Also, he did say 'feel' we have control, not have control.
I disagree on that point though, I don't think the Tories at least feel we have control and as you say are very mad about that.
I forgot I was on pb.com where all cultural references antecedent to Lesley Judd's departure from Blue Peter are unknowable.
Bad news. Leach is not fantastic but he does a job. England really need a spinner. For me Moeen has to be the answer but he is not much of a threat and his 20:20 career has, if anything, made him an even more defensive option rather than an attacking one.
Play Wood and use Root as the spinner.
Yes, I suspect they will go the four-seamer route. There's a lot to commend it. You can play Broad and Anderson with less fear for their fitness and stamina, and you can certainly pick Wood for his extreme pace. Robinson is the obvious 'fourth' and has the additional merit of being a decent bat too for a number eight. There are other candidates though and it likely there would be rotation as the series develops. England are lucky to have strength in depth in this department and should use it.
There is no strength in depth in the spin department. I'm not sure what the issue is with Moen but if he were up to it and available they wouldn't have kept playing Leach, who is reliable but no great threat at Test level. The other spinners - Bess, Jack, and heaven forbid Dawson - don't bear thining about.
Very wrong on leach vs Moen. Leach has 124 wickets from 30 odd tests. Mo 195 from twice that. Leach gets a serious amount of action on the ball. That he’s played in every match under Stokes speaks volumes.
Leach is number one choice when he is fit and available, no question. The problem we are trying to address is that he isn't.
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
This is why the Tories can and will win the next general election. It won't be about housing or the NHS. It will be about immigration.
No, Starmer will in in 2024. For sure
The Brits - especially post Brexit - are notably tolerant. We feel we have control now. So we tolerate higher migration of qualified people
But it may well be a huge issue by 2029, when a Tory party under, say, Badenoch, or a further right populist party under Fuck knows, could win big
To realise this, you need to thought-game a situation where we are like Italy, facing 500,000 people crossing the Channel in dinghies, without about 5 being returned every 9 months. At that point we'd probably vote for Hitler
It's not controlled and the slines are dickhurt over it. Hence hysterical shit about boats in the Mail/Telegraph.
Who the heck are the slines? Google is no help.
Also, he did say 'feel' we have control, not have control.
I disagree on that point though, I don't think the Tories at least feel we have control and as you say are very mad about that.
I forgot I was on pb.com where all cultural references antecedent to Lesley Judd's departure from Blue Peter are unknowable.
I actually agree with Leon on this one. It's like how people claim AI created music is worthless because it has no real meaning behind it, no true creation, but the fact is you can play human vs AI created stuff next to each other and without being told which is which the listenere will enjoy and feel emotion to both without distinction.
Ultimately it may well be AI is never 'truly' sentient and just reaches a very convincing imitation of it. But at that point there is no real difference.
Will AI ever be able to create a convincing Radiohead album...
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
This is why the Tories can and will win the next general election. It won't be about housing or the NHS. It will be about immigration.
No, Starmer will in in 2024. For sure
The Brits - especially post Brexit - are notably tolerant. We feel we have control now. So we tolerate higher migration of qualified people
But it may well be a huge issue by 2029, when a Tory party under, say, Badenoch, or a further right populist party under Fuck knows, could win big
To realise this, you need to thought-game a situation where we are like Italy, facing 500,000 people crossing the Channel in dinghies, without about 5 being returned every 9 months. At that point we'd probably vote for Hitler
It's not controlled and the slines are dickhurt over it. Hence hysterical shit about boats in the Mail/Telegraph.
Who the heck are the slines? Google is no help.
Also, he did say 'feel' we have control, not have control.
I disagree on that point though, I don't think the Tories at least feel we have control and as you say are very mad about that.
I forgot I was on pb.com where all cultural references antecedent to Lesley Judd's departure from Blue Peter are unknowable.
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
This is why the Tories can and will win the next general election. It won't be about housing or the NHS. It will be about immigration.
No, Starmer will in in 2024. For sure
The Brits - especially post Brexit - are notably tolerant. We feel we have control now. So we tolerate higher migration of qualified people
But it may well be a huge issue by 2029, when a Tory party under, say, Badenoch, or a further right populist party under Fuck knows, could win big
To realise this, you need to thought-game a situation where we are like Italy, facing 500,000 people crossing the Channel in dinghies, without about 5 being returned every 9 months. At that point we'd probably vote for Hitler
Most immigrants aren't qualified. Admittedly I haven't seen the stats but this is the perception. Many Brits aren't tolerant at all of foreigners.
I actually think Brits are pretty tolerant.
But we all know most of the people crossing in boats are taking the piss: Indians were the largest group the month before last, and Albanians have slowed to a trickle from over 12k last year since that new deal came in.
The much bigger issue is the Med and that's where Europe has the real problem.
Indians? Did they take the HYUFD route from the Persian/Arabian Gulf, or what?
Bad news. Leach is not fantastic but he does a job. England really need a spinner. For me Moeen has to be the answer but he is not much of a threat and his 20:20 career has, if anything, made him an even more defensive option rather than an attacking one.
Play Wood and use Root as the spinner.
Yes, I suspect they will go the four-seamer route. There's a lot to commend it. You can play Broad and Anderson with less fear for their fitness and stamina, and you can certainly pick Wood for his extreme pace. Robinson is the obvious 'fourth' and has the additional merit of being a decent bat too for a number eight. There are other candidates though and it likely there would be rotation as the series develops. England are lucky to have strength in depth in this department and should use it.
There is no strength in depth in the spin department. I'm not sure what the issue is with Moen but if he were up to it and available they wouldn't have kept playing Leach, who is reliable but no great threat at Test level. The other spinners - Bess, Jack, and heaven forbid Dawson - don't bear thining about.
Very wrong on leach vs Moen. Leach has 124 wickets from 30 odd tests. Mo 195 from twice that. Leach gets a serious amount of action on the ball. That he’s played in every match under Stokes speaks volumes.
Leach is number one choice when he is fit and available, no question. The problem we are trying to address is that he isn't.
There's a very good piece on Cricinfo weighing up the options:
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
This is why the Tories can and will win the next general election. It won't be about housing or the NHS. It will be about immigration.
No, Starmer will in in 2024. For sure
The Brits - especially post Brexit - are notably tolerant. We feel we have control now. So we tolerate higher migration of qualified people
But it may well be a huge issue by 2029, when a Tory party under, say, Badenoch, or a further right populist party under Fuck knows, could win big
To realise this, you need to thought-game a situation where we are like Italy, facing 500,000 people crossing the Channel in dinghies, without about 5 being returned every 9 months. At that point we'd probably vote for Hitler
It's not controlled and the slines are dickhurt over it. Hence hysterical shit about boats in the Mail/Telegraph.
Who the heck are the slines? Google is no help.
Also, he did say 'feel' we have control, not have control.
I disagree on that point though, I don't think the Tories at least feel we have control and as you say are very mad about that.
I forgot I was on pb.com where all cultural references antecedent to Lesley Judd's departure from Blue Peter are unknowable.
Local by-election in St Peters Ward, St Albans on Tuesday 13 June.
This is the centre of St Albans, including the main City Station.
I am sure that anyone who would like to canvas would be welcome by any of the four parties standing - Conservative, Labour, Green, Lib Dem.
I expect that the main fight will between the Green and Lib Dems; it is a Lib Dem resignation and the Greens won the ward in May. Conservatives last won the ward in 2015, but you have to go back to 2002 for a Labour win.
Bad news. Leach is not fantastic but he does a job. England really need a spinner. For me Moeen has to be the answer but he is not much of a threat and his 20:20 career has, if anything, made him an even more defensive option rather than an attacking one.
Play Wood and use Root as the spinner.
Yes, I suspect they will go the four-seamer route. There's a lot to commend it. You can play Broad and Anderson with less fear for their fitness and stamina, and you can certainly pick Wood for his extreme pace. Robinson is the obvious 'fourth' and has the additional merit of being a decent bat too for a number eight. There are other candidates though and it likely there would be rotation as the series develops. England are lucky to have strength in depth in this department and should use it.
There is no strength in depth in the spin department. I'm not sure what the issue is with Moen but if he were up to it and available they wouldn't have kept playing Leach, who is reliable but no great threat at Test level. The other spinners - Bess, Jack, and heaven forbid Dawson - don't bear thining about.
Very wrong on leach vs Moen. Leach has 124 wickets from 30 odd tests. Mo 195 from twice that. Leach gets a serious amount of action on the ball. That he’s played in every match under Stokes speaks volumes.
Leach is number one choice when he is fit and available, no question. The problem we are trying to address is that he isn't.
There's a very good piece on Cricinfo weighing up the options:
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
That’s the weird thing. Being anti-immigration in Southern Europe where nobody has babies anymore is true foot shooting behaviour. And oddly hypocritical, in countries that have exported millions of emigrants over the last century to America, Australia and Northern Europe.
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
That’s the weird thing. Being anti-immigration in Southern Europe where nobody has babies anymore is true foot shooting behaviour. And oddly hypocritical, in countries that have exported millions of emigrants over the last century to America, Australia and Northern Europe.
Calling it hypocritical is an odd form of collective responsibility. Should the people who didn't emigrate have blocked the path of those who did by building a kind of Berlin wall?
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
That’s the weird thing. Being anti-immigration in Southern Europe where nobody has babies anymore is true foot shooting behaviour. And oddly hypocritical, in countries that have exported millions of emigrants over the last century to America, Australia and Northern Europe.
I don't really agree with that. Immigration is about more than numbers. Culture, integration/assimilation are other acceptable things to consider. And I wouldn't say those countries have exported their people. Individuals from those countries freely chose to leave and other countries decided to accept them. I can't see it as hypocritical.
Biden is at an implied probability of 72% at Betfair to be the Democratic candidate in USPE2024. Just been looking at his history of falling over. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-falling-on-stairs-poland-video-ukraine-b2288204.html "White House physician Kevin O’Connor (writes) that Mr Biden has a stiff gait as the result of 'significant spinal arthritis, mild post-fracture foot arthritis and a mild sensory peripheral neuropathy of the feet'." The party will be nuts to run with Biden, even if it's Trump on the other side and he gets even more psycho. The Republican campaign will show clips over and over again of Biden's senility. Let it go, Joe. You did well to beat Trump and the world thanks you. Now hand the baton over in the public interest.
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
That’s the weird thing. Being anti-immigration in Southern Europe where nobody has babies anymore is true foot shooting behaviour. And oddly hypocritical, in countries that have exported millions of emigrants over the last century to America, Australia and Northern Europe.
I don't really agree with that. Immigration is about more than numbers. Culture, integration/assimilation are other acceptable things to consider. And I wouldn't say those countries have exported their people. Individuals from those countries freely chose to leave and other countries decided to accept them. I can't see it as hypocritical.
Both you and Williamglen make a valid point. Those who emigrated are different from those left behind who don’t like immigration. One group doesn’t owe the other anything.
Perhaps that’s part of the reason these countries are slowly dying. The dynamic, entrepreneurial ones emigrated to seek their fortune. They certainly didn’t mind about living somewhere - like Australia - that was a melting pot of new cultures. The cautious home-loving ones stayed behind, and just want a quiet life. Immigration means change, and challenge, and things not being like the old days.
We don’t have the emigration problem so much in Britain, at least not these days, because a. unemployment hasn’t been a problem for a long time, and b. we don’t do foreign languages. But our demographics aren’t much better than Italy or Greece. Better, though trending in the wrong direction. But thankfully we have a much more balanced attitude towards immigration.
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
That’s the weird thing. Being anti-immigration in Southern Europe where nobody has babies anymore is true foot shooting behaviour. And oddly hypocritical, in countries that have exported millions of emigrants over the last century to America, Australia and Northern Europe.
I don't really agree with that. Immigration is about more than numbers. Culture, integration/assimilation are other acceptable things to consider. And I wouldn't say those countries have exported their people. Individuals from those countries freely chose to leave and other countries decided to accept them. I can't see it as hypocritical.
Both you and Williamglen make a valid point. Those who emigrated are different from those left behind who don’t like immigration. One group doesn’t owe the other anything.
Perhaps that’s part of the reason these countries are slowly dying. The dynamic, entrepreneurial ones emigrated to seek their fortune. They certainly didn’t mind about living somewhere - like Australia - that was a melting pot of new cultures. The cautious home-loving ones stayed behind, and just want a quiet life. Immigration means change, and challenge, and things not being like the old days.
We don’t have the emigration problem so much in Britain, at least not these days, because a. unemployment hasn’t been a problem for a long time, and b. we don’t do foreign languages. But our demographics aren’t much better than Italy or Greece. Better, though trending in the wrong direction. But thankfully we have a much more balanced attitude towards immigration.
Apparently the UK had the largest expat population of any EU member state in 2016, but most of them migrated to other Anglosphere countries:
I actually agree with Leon on this one. It's like how people claim AI created music is worthless because it has no real meaning behind it, no true creation, but the fact is you can play human vs AI created stuff next to each other and without being told which is which the listenere will enjoy and feel emotion to both without distinction.
Ultimately it may well be AI is never 'truly' sentient and just reaches a very convincing imitation of it. But at that point there is no real difference.
Will AI ever be able to create a convincing Radiohead album...
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
That’s the weird thing. Being anti-immigration in Southern Europe where nobody has babies anymore is true foot shooting behaviour. And oddly hypocritical, in countries that have exported millions of emigrants over the last century to America, Australia and Northern Europe.
I don't really agree with that. Immigration is about more than numbers. Culture, integration/assimilation are other acceptable things to consider. And I wouldn't say those countries have exported their people. Individuals from those countries freely chose to leave and other countries decided to accept them. I can't see it as hypocritical.
Both you and Williamglen make a valid point. Those who emigrated are different from those left behind who don’t like immigration. One group doesn’t owe the other anything.
Perhaps that’s part of the reason these countries are slowly dying. The dynamic, entrepreneurial ones emigrated to seek their fortune. They certainly didn’t mind about living somewhere - like Australia - that was a melting pot of new cultures. The cautious home-loving ones stayed behind, and just want a quiet life. Immigration means change, and challenge, and things not being like the old days.
We don’t have the emigration problem so much in Britain, at least not these days, because a. unemployment hasn’t been a problem for a long time, and b. we don’t do foreign languages. But our demographics aren’t much better than Italy or Greece. Better, though trending in the wrong direction. But thankfully we have a much more balanced attitude towards immigration.
Apparently the UK had the largest expat population of any EU member state in 2016, but most of them migrated to other Anglosphere countries:
Yes, in particular there was one last big wave of UK-born migrants to Australia in the generation after the war, and still today Australia has around a million residents born in the UK.
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
This is why the Tories can and will win the next general election. It won't be about housing or the NHS. It will be about immigration.
No, Starmer will in in 2024. For sure
The Brits - especially post Brexit - are notably tolerant. We feel we have control now. So we tolerate higher migration of qualified people
But it may well be a huge issue by 2029, when a Tory party under, say, Badenoch, or a further right populist party under Fuck knows, could win big
To realise this, you need to thought-game a situation where we are like Italy, facing 500,000 people crossing the Channel in dinghies, without about 5 being returned every 9 months. At that point we'd probably vote for Hitler
Most immigrants aren't qualified. Admittedly I haven't seen the stats but this is the perception. Many Brits aren't tolerant at all of foreigners.
I actually think Brits are pretty tolerant.
But we all know most of the people crossing in boats are taking the piss: Indians were the largest group the month before last, and Albanians have slowed to a trickle from over 12k last year since that new deal came in.
The much bigger issue is the Med and that's where Europe has the real problem.
Indians? Did they take the HYUFD route from the Persian/Arabian Gulf, or what?
Biden is at an implied probability of 72% at Betfair to be the Democratic candidate in USPE2024. Just been looking at his history of falling over. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-falling-on-stairs-poland-video-ukraine-b2288204.html "White House physician Kevin O’Connor (writes) that Mr Biden has a stiff gait as the result of 'significant spinal arthritis, mild post-fracture foot arthritis and a mild sensory peripheral neuropathy of the feet'." The party will be nuts to run with Biden, even if it's Trump on the other side and he gets even more psycho. The Republican campaign will show clips over and over again of Biden's senility. Let it go, Joe. You did well to beat Trump and the world thanks you. Now hand the baton over in the public interest.
To be fair to Biden he is the only Democrat who has proven he can beat Trump and Trump is in his late 70s and hardly young either.
If the younger De Santis was the GOP candidate a younger Democrat like Buttigieg or Whitmer might be a better candidate but at the moment Trump remains the GOP frontrunner
Biden is at an implied probability of 72% at Betfair to be the Democratic candidate in USPE2024. Just been looking at his history of falling over. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-falling-on-stairs-poland-video-ukraine-b2288204.html "White House physician Kevin O’Connor (writes) that Mr Biden has a stiff gait as the result of 'significant spinal arthritis, mild post-fracture foot arthritis and a mild sensory peripheral neuropathy of the feet'." The party will be nuts to run with Biden, even if it's Trump on the other side and he gets even more psycho. The Republican campaign will show clips over and over again of Biden's senility. Let it go, Joe. You did well to beat Trump and the world thanks you. Now hand the baton over in the public interest.
To be fair to Biden he is the only Democrat who has proven he can beat Trump and Trump is in his late 70s and hardly young either.
If the younger De Santis was the GOP candidate a younger Democrat like Buttigieg or Whitmer might be a better candidate but at the moment Trump remains the GOP frontrunner
Biden is at an implied probability of 72% at Betfair to be the Democratic candidate in USPE2024. Just been looking at his history of falling over. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-falling-on-stairs-poland-video-ukraine-b2288204.html "White House physician Kevin O’Connor (writes) that Mr Biden has a stiff gait as the result of 'significant spinal arthritis, mild post-fracture foot arthritis and a mild sensory peripheral neuropathy of the feet'." The party will be nuts to run with Biden, even if it's Trump on the other side and he gets even more psycho. The Republican campaign will show clips over and over again of Biden's senility. Let it go, Joe. You did well to beat Trump and the world thanks you. Now hand the baton over in the public interest.
To be fair to Biden he is the only Democrat who has proven he can beat Trump and Trump is in his late 70s and hardly young either.
If the younger De Santis was the GOP candidate a younger Democrat like Buttigieg or Whitmer might be a better candidate but at the moment Trump remains the GOP frontrunner
Summary: the authors are politically motivated, the use of "Johns Hopkins study" was misleading, the methodology was problematic, and the reporting of the "study" is both slanted and politically motivated.
I'll wait and see if this "paper" goes the same way as the last one but it smells the same.
"Universal basic income of £1,600 a month to be trialled in two places in England Scheme to run for two years and participants will be monitored to see what effect it has on mental and physical health
Thirty people will be paid a lump sum without conditions each month for two years and will be observed to understand the effects on their lives. Two places in England have been selected for the micro pilot scheme: central Jarrow, in north-east England, and East Finchley, in north London.
"Universal basic income of £1,600 a month to be trialled in two places in England Scheme to run for two years and participants will be monitored to see what effect it has on mental and physical health
Thirty people will be paid a lump sum without conditions each month for two years and will be observed to understand the effects on their lives. Two places in England have been selected for the micro pilot scheme: central Jarrow, in north-east England, and East Finchley, in north London.
A poor experimental design. You'd want to guarantee random people an income for life to see the true impact on their career choices. If that seems costly to researchers, well, so is the policy.
The new study on the impact of lockdowns is published in a report by the Institute of Economic Affairs out on Monday.
Hahahaha, get in the fucking bin. The IE fucking A. Big Tobacco think tank, Tufton Street weirdos. Yeah, I'm going to get my health policy information from them, definitely.
"Universal basic income of £1,600 a month to be trialled in two places in England Scheme to run for two years and participants will be monitored to see what effect it has on mental and physical health
Thirty people will be paid a lump sum without conditions each month for two years and will be observed to understand the effects on their lives. Two places in England have been selected for the micro pilot scheme: central Jarrow, in north-east England, and East Finchley, in north London.
A poor experimental design. You'd want to guarantee random people an income for life to see the true impact on their career choices. If that seems costly to researchers, well, so is the policy.
Well if we're going to trial that, I want to trial the Purge. That's equally credible... 😀
I'm liking that because stories like that about the human spirit touch me very deeply. I don't think the dig at either @NickPalmer or @Dura_Ace was really called for.
Given their views on the conflict, I think it's very fair. They have been excusers and appeasers of the aggressors in this evil war. Shame on them.
I wonder how the little girl *poked* the Russians into attacking her, or how her country yokel dialect caused them to bomb the building she was in?
War is shit and Russia undoubtedly bears the blame for this one. But different views of how we got here are welcome as are different ideas of how we stop this. Sasha's inspirational story does not prove one side right or wrong in itself.
Thank you.
I can't speak for @Dura_Ace, except to note that he's taken in Ukrainian refugees, which is more than most of us. As for me, I'm very clear that the invasion was imperialist aggression, and joined Jeremy Hunt and the LibDem leader in a joint rally to denounce it (and to call for support for the refugees locally). I've always supported our stated aim in the early part of the war to give Ukraine defensive weaponry to halt the invasion. But I disagree with the strategy of step by step escalation, which in my view will simply perpetuate and worsen the conflict and the misery, benefiting only extreme nationalists on both sides and at the expense of ordinary Ukrainians.
I don't comment on it often here, as people like Josias instantly go ad hominem about it, and since I can't do anything very useful I can't be bothered to argue with shouty anonymous strangers. But there should be space here for more than one opinion without abuse.
The new study on the impact of lockdowns is published in a report by the Institute of Economic Affairs out on Monday.
Hahahaha, get in the fucking bin. The IE fucking A. Big Tobacco think tank, Tufton Street weirdos. Yeah, I'm going to get my health policy information from them, definitely.
Well, we had prominent Communist Party of GB members advising SAGE and endorsing maximal lockdown.
I'm liking that because stories like that about the human spirit touch me very deeply. I don't think the dig at either @NickPalmer or @Dura_Ace was really called for.
Given their views on the conflict, I think it's very fair. They have been excusers and appeasers of the aggressors in this evil war. Shame on them.
I wonder how the little girl *poked* the Russians into attacking her, or how her country yokel dialect caused them to bomb the building she was in?
War is shit and Russia undoubtedly bears the blame for this one. But different views of how we got here are welcome as are different ideas of how we stop this. Sasha's inspirational story does not prove one side right or wrong in itself.
Thank you.
I can't speak for @Dura_Ace, except to note that he's taken in Ukrainian refugees, which is more than most of us. As for me, I'm very clear that the invasion was imperialist aggression, and joined Jeremy Hunt and the LibDem leader in a joint rally to denounce it (and to call for support for the refugees locally). I've always supported our stated aim in the early part of the war to give Ukraine defensive weaponry to halt the invasion. But I disagree with the strategy of step by step escalation, which in my view will simply perpetuate and worsen the conflict and the misery, benefiting only extreme nationalists on both sides and at the expense of ordinary Ukrainians.
I don't comment on it often here, as people like Josias instantly go ad hominem about it, and since I can't do anything very useful I can't be bothered to argue with shouty anonymous strangers. But there should be space here for more than one opinion without abuse.
I think the problem here may be that after a year there is no evidence either that Ukrainians are fascists or that their government is planning to bomb Moscow.
I'm liking that because stories like that about the human spirit touch me very deeply. I don't think the dig at either @NickPalmer or @Dura_Ace was really called for.
Given their views on the conflict, I think it's very fair. They have been excusers and appeasers of the aggressors in this evil war. Shame on them.
I wonder how the little girl *poked* the Russians into attacking her, or how her country yokel dialect caused them to bomb the building she was in?
War is shit and Russia undoubtedly bears the blame for this one. But different views of how we got here are welcome as are different ideas of how we stop this. Sasha's inspirational story does not prove one side right or wrong in itself.
Thank you.
I can't speak for @Dura_Ace, except to note that he's taken in Ukrainian refugees, which is more than most of us. As for me, I'm very clear that the invasion was imperialist aggression, and joined Jeremy Hunt and the LibDem leader in a joint rally to denounce it (and to call for support for the refugees locally). I've always supported our stated aim in the early part of the war to give Ukraine defensive weaponry to halt the invasion. But I disagree with the strategy of step by step escalation, which in my view will simply perpetuate and worsen the conflict and the misery, benefiting only extreme nationalists on both sides and at the expense of ordinary Ukrainians.
I don't comment on it often here, as people like Josias instantly go ad hominem about it, and since I can't do anything very useful I can't be bothered to argue with shouty anonymous strangers. But there should be space here for more than one opinion without abuse.
An important element of how we got here is the fact that nobody has really done much to counter Russian imperialist aggression these last 15-20 years and to ensure they do not benefit from it.
I note your use of words "halt the invasion" leaves the door open for handing over Russian-occupied Ukrainian occupied territory to Russia. I believe this is a repetition of that mistake that has paved the way to this now. Allowing Russia to get away with taking chunks out of its neighbours is what allows Russia to take chunks out of its neighbours.
If someone's broken into a house, you don't just hand over the room they're currently in to "halt" the invasion. You get them thrown out and you make sure you sting their arse so badly on their way out they don't break into another house tomorrow.
The new study on the impact of lockdowns is published in a report by the Institute of Economic Affairs out on Monday.
Hahahaha, get in the fucking bin. The IE fucking A. Big Tobacco think tank, Tufton Street weirdos. Yeah, I'm going to get my health policy information from them, definitely.
Well, we had prominent Communist Party of GB members advising SAGE and endorsing maximal lockdown.
And if Susan Michie tried to publish a "study" on the Communist Party website instead of in a peer-reviewed psychology journal, we should dismiss that "study" too.
The new study on the impact of lockdowns is published in a report by the Institute of Economic Affairs out on Monday.
Hahahaha, get in the fucking bin. The IE fucking A. Big Tobacco think tank, Tufton Street weirdos. Yeah, I'm going to get my health policy information from them, definitely.
Well, we had prominent Communist Party of GB members advising SAGE and endorsing maximal lockdown.
And if Susan Michie tried to publish a "study" on the Communist Party website instead of in a peer-reviewed psychology journal, we should dismiss that "study" too.
On the basis of the last 10 years, you can also ignore most of what's published in peer-reviewed experimental psychology.
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
That’s the weird thing. Being anti-immigration in Southern Europe where nobody has babies anymore is true foot shooting behaviour. And oddly hypocritical, in countries that have exported millions of emigrants over the last century to America, Australia and Northern Europe.
I don't really agree with that. Immigration is about more than numbers. Culture, integration/assimilation are other acceptable things to consider. And I wouldn't say those countries have exported their people. Individuals from those countries freely chose to leave and other countries decided to accept them. I can't see it as hypocritical.
Both you and Williamglen make a valid point. Those who emigrated are different from those left behind who don’t like immigration. One group doesn’t owe the other anything.
Perhaps that’s part of the reason these countries are slowly dying. The dynamic, entrepreneurial ones emigrated to seek their fortune. They certainly didn’t mind about living somewhere - like Australia - that was a melting pot of new cultures. The cautious home-loving ones stayed behind, and just want a quiet life. Immigration means change, and challenge, and things not being like the old days.
We don’t have the emigration problem so much in Britain, at least not these days, because a. unemployment hasn’t been a problem for a long time, and b. we don’t do foreign languages. But our demographics aren’t much better than Italy or Greece. Better, though trending in the wrong direction. But thankfully we have a much more balanced attitude towards immigration.
Apparently the UK had the largest expat population of any EU member state in 2016, but most of them migrated to other Anglosphere countries:
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
That’s the weird thing. Being anti-immigration in Southern Europe where nobody has babies anymore is true foot shooting behaviour. And oddly hypocritical, in countries that have exported millions of emigrants over the last century to America, Australia and Northern Europe.
I don't really agree with that. Immigration is about more than numbers. Culture, integration/assimilation are other acceptable things to consider. And I wouldn't say those countries have exported their people. Individuals from those countries freely chose to leave and other countries decided to accept them. I can't see it as hypocritical.
Both you and Williamglen make a valid point. Those who emigrated are different from those left behind who don’t like immigration. One group doesn’t owe the other anything.
Perhaps that’s part of the reason these countries are slowly dying. The dynamic, entrepreneurial ones emigrated to seek their fortune. They certainly didn’t mind about living somewhere - like Australia - that was a melting pot of new cultures. The cautious home-loving ones stayed behind, and just want a quiet life. Immigration means change, and challenge, and things not being like the old days.
We don’t have the emigration problem so much in Britain, at least not these days, because a. unemployment hasn’t been a problem for a long time, and b. we don’t do foreign languages. But our demographics aren’t much better than Italy or Greece. Better, though trending in the wrong direction. But thankfully we have a much more balanced attitude towards immigration.
Apparently the UK had the largest expat population of any EU member state in 2016, but most of them migrated to other Anglosphere countries:
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
That’s the weird thing. Being anti-immigration in Southern Europe where nobody has babies anymore is true foot shooting behaviour. And oddly hypocritical, in countries that have exported millions of emigrants over the last century to America, Australia and Northern Europe.
I don't really agree with that. Immigration is about more than numbers. Culture, integration/assimilation are other acceptable things to consider. And I wouldn't say those countries have exported their people. Individuals from those countries freely chose to leave and other countries decided to accept them. I can't see it as hypocritical.
Both you and Williamglen make a valid point. Those who emigrated are different from those left behind who don’t like immigration. One group doesn’t owe the other anything.
Perhaps that’s part of the reason these countries are slowly dying. The dynamic, entrepreneurial ones emigrated to seek their fortune. They certainly didn’t mind about living somewhere - like Australia - that was a melting pot of new cultures. The cautious home-loving ones stayed behind, and just want a quiet life. Immigration means change, and challenge, and things not being like the old days.
We don’t have the emigration problem so much in Britain, at least not these days, because a. unemployment hasn’t been a problem for a long time, and b. we don’t do foreign languages. But our demographics aren’t much better than Italy or Greece. Better, though trending in the wrong direction. But thankfully we have a much more balanced attitude towards immigration.
Apparently the UK had the largest expat population of any EU member state in 2016, but most of them migrated to other Anglosphere countries:
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
That’s the weird thing. Being anti-immigration in Southern Europe where nobody has babies anymore is true foot shooting behaviour. And oddly hypocritical, in countries that have exported millions of emigrants over the last century to America, Australia and Northern Europe.
I don't really agree with that. Immigration is about more than numbers. Culture, integration/assimilation are other acceptable things to consider. And I wouldn't say those countries have exported their people. Individuals from those countries freely chose to leave and other countries decided to accept them. I can't see it as hypocritical.
Both you and Williamglen make a valid point. Those who emigrated are different from those left behind who don’t like immigration. One group doesn’t owe the other anything.
Perhaps that’s part of the reason these countries are slowly dying. The dynamic, entrepreneurial ones emigrated to seek their fortune. They certainly didn’t mind about living somewhere - like Australia - that was a melting pot of new cultures. The cautious home-loving ones stayed behind, and just want a quiet life. Immigration means change, and challenge, and things not being like the old days.
We don’t have the emigration problem so much in Britain, at least not these days, because a. unemployment hasn’t been a problem for a long time, and b. we don’t do foreign languages. But our demographics aren’t much better than Italy or Greece. Better, though trending in the wrong direction. But thankfully we have a much more balanced attitude towards immigration.
Apparently the UK had the largest expat population of any EU member state in 2016, but most of them migrated to other Anglosphere countries:
Though if you use those figures as % of total population it changes the rankings somewhat.
Britain with a population of around 66 milllion in 2016 means that 4.9 million expats represents about 7.5% of the population.
For Poland its about 9% For Romania its about 17% For Ireland its about 19% For Portugal its around 22%
The numbers for Portugal are quite extraordinary, albeit a fair number are probably in Brazil rather than in the rest of the EU.
Even after Brexit, the UK is the most popular destination these days (2021 data):
"The United Kingdom was the leading destination (12,000 entries), followed by Spain (8,000), Switzerland (8,000), France (6,000) and Germany (6,000)."
But historically it was France:
"France continues to be the country with the largest number of residents born in Portugal, resulting mainly from the great wave of emigration in the 1960/70’s, with 598,000 individuals.
Switzerland has 207,000 residents born in Portugal, followed by the United States of America (162,000), the United Kingdom (156,000), Brazil (138,000 in 2010), Canada (134,000) and Germany (115,000)."
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
That’s the weird thing. Being anti-immigration in Southern Europe where nobody has babies anymore is true foot shooting behaviour. And oddly hypocritical, in countries that have exported millions of emigrants over the last century to America, Australia and Northern Europe.
I don't really agree with that. Immigration is about more than numbers. Culture, integration/assimilation are other acceptable things to consider. And I wouldn't say those countries have exported their people. Individuals from those countries freely chose to leave and other countries decided to accept them. I can't see it as hypocritical.
Both you and Williamglen make a valid point. Those who emigrated are different from those left behind who don’t like immigration. One group doesn’t owe the other anything.
Perhaps that’s part of the reason these countries are slowly dying. The dynamic, entrepreneurial ones emigrated to seek their fortune. They certainly didn’t mind about living somewhere - like Australia - that was a melting pot of new cultures. The cautious home-loving ones stayed behind, and just want a quiet life. Immigration means change, and challenge, and things not being like the old days.
We don’t have the emigration problem so much in Britain, at least not these days, because a. unemployment hasn’t been a problem for a long time, and b. we don’t do foreign languages. But our demographics aren’t much better than Italy or Greece. Better, though trending in the wrong direction. But thankfully we have a much more balanced attitude towards immigration.
Apparently the UK had the largest expat population of any EU member state in 2016, but most of them migrated to other Anglosphere countries:
I wonder where the highest global % (not in absolute numbers) is?
Lebanon?
Some small, obscure country whose a) economy fell off a cliff a few decades ago, and b ) had a free movement agreement / liberal visa regime with other more prosperous countries, i'd guess.
Lysglimt Johansen is the leader of Norwegian far-right political party Alliance - Alternative for Norway. He is a virulent antisemite, a Holocaust denier, and an open supporter of Norwegian mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik.
I would be amazed if Corbyn knew who he was. Whether it should be his job to do due diligence on stuff like that is another question.
You believe he literally.... just bumped into him? Really? What are the chances?
Are you jealous? Can't imagine you'd turn down the chance of a meeting with Johansen. Or Breivik for that matter.
I wouldn't assume that picture is genuine. And it's not unbelievable that Johansen would turn up at a pro-Assange meeting and try to get his photo taken with J Corbyn. Certainly what Johansen stands for is what Corbyn has strongly opposed all his political life.
There will always be photos of politicians with awful people, and it isn't the case that means they suddenly share all values and views, though opponents will naturally claim it is so.
Questions really arise if the figures involved are attending/promoting the same event(s), or despite being opposed in a great many ways, are aligned on a particular topic and making the same arguments, especially if one or both are referencing the other intentionally while the do it.
Yes I agree - questions certainly do arise about what was going on if anything with Johansen and J Corbyn. We probably wouldn't give the same answers though. We can maybe agree that Corbyn should give his side of it.
Anders Breivik of course praised both Jeremy Clarkson and Melanie Phillips in the long manifesto that he murdered 77 people in order to publicise. Phillips's response when asked, if I recall correctly, was that she wasn't going to comment on the actions of an insane person.
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
That’s the weird thing. Being anti-immigration in Southern Europe where nobody has babies anymore is true foot shooting behaviour. And oddly hypocritical, in countries that have exported millions of emigrants over the last century to America, Australia and Northern Europe.
I don't really agree with that. Immigration is about more than numbers. Culture, integration/assimilation are other acceptable things to consider. And I wouldn't say those countries have exported their people. Individuals from those countries freely chose to leave and other countries decided to accept them. I can't see it as hypocritical.
Both you and Williamglen make a valid point. Those who emigrated are different from those left behind who don’t like immigration. One group doesn’t owe the other anything.
Perhaps that’s part of the reason these countries are slowly dying. The dynamic, entrepreneurial ones emigrated to seek their fortune. They certainly didn’t mind about living somewhere - like Australia - that was a melting pot of new cultures. The cautious home-loving ones stayed behind, and just want a quiet life. Immigration means change, and challenge, and things not being like the old days.
We don’t have the emigration problem so much in Britain, at least not these days, because a. unemployment hasn’t been a problem for a long time, and b. we don’t do foreign languages. But our demographics aren’t much better than Italy or Greece. Better, though trending in the wrong direction. But thankfully we have a much more balanced attitude towards immigration.
Apparently the UK had the largest expat population of any EU member state in 2016, but most of them migrated to other Anglosphere countries:
I wonder where the highest global % (not in absolute numbers) is?
Lebanon?
Some small, obscure country whose a) economy fell off a cliff a few decades ago, and b ) had a free movement agreement / liberal visa regime with other more prosperous countries, i'd guess.
I'm liking that because stories like that about the human spirit touch me very deeply. I don't think the dig at either @NickPalmer or @Dura_Ace was really called for.
Given their views on the conflict, I think it's very fair. They have been excusers and appeasers of the aggressors in this evil war. Shame on them.
I wonder how the little girl *poked* the Russians into attacking her, or how her country yokel dialect caused them to bomb the building she was in?
War is shit and Russia undoubtedly bears the blame for this one. But different views of how we got here are welcome as are different ideas of how we stop this. Sasha's inspirational story does not prove one side right or wrong in itself.
Thank you.
I can't speak for @Dura_Ace, except to note that he's taken in Ukrainian refugees, which is more than most of us. As for me, I'm very clear that the invasion was imperialist aggression, and joined Jeremy Hunt and the LibDem leader in a joint rally to denounce it (and to call for support for the refugees locally). I've always supported our stated aim in the early part of the war to give Ukraine defensive weaponry to halt the invasion. But I disagree with the strategy of step by step escalation, which in my view will simply perpetuate and worsen the conflict and the misery, benefiting only extreme nationalists on both sides and at the expense of ordinary Ukrainians.
I don't comment on it often here, as people like Josias instantly go ad hominem about it, and since I can't do anything very useful I can't be bothered to argue with shouty anonymous strangers. But there should be space here for more than one opinion without abuse.
to defend myself:
@NickPalmer , *before* the war began, you said that we shouldn't 'poke' Russia into it. That places the blame, not on Russia, but on us.
You've made several other claims, including that NATO said they would not expand eastwards - which is rubbish, and another claim the Russians make.
For someone who sees this as imperialist aggression, you are very, very close to your friend Corbyn's and Stop The War's "Blame-The-West" view. Odd, that.
And this matters.
Yes, there should be a multitude of views on here. But when your view is wrong, both morally and factually, expect to get called out for it (as I would my own views). If you want to recant those views, fair enough.
Comments
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
I am sure a few neighbouring boroughs will help but Newham doesn't have a single Tory borough councillor as Epping Forest doesn't have a single Labour district councillor and I doubt these by elections will change that
Any political consultants I am available on a consultancy basis if you want more ideas to bring canvassing into the 21st century (whilst also keeping it in the 1980s as they like).
I wouldn't assume that picture is genuine. And it's not unbelievable that Johansen would turn up at a pro-Assange meeting and try to get his photo taken with J Corbyn. Certainly what Johansen stands for is what Corbyn has strongly opposed all his political life.
Husband is increasingly convinced that Sunak and his ministers, knowing that they're headed into Opposition (or leaving Parliament, for those with majorities of less than 10,000,) will make like John Major or Gordon Brown and hang on by their fingernails until the last possible moment. The prospect of which will doubtless fill the electorate with joy.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Questions really arise if the figures involved are attending/promoting the same event(s), or despite being opposed in a great many ways, are aligned on a particular topic and making the same arguments, especially if one or both are referencing the other intentionally while the do it.
So they innovated. The vast majority of companies failed, but some - like MS, Apple, Oracle, Dell, Intel, etc, survived and thrived. Then came the Internet, and that tech's monstrosities: Google, Facebook, Amazon etc. But as it becomes more expensive to develop new tech to compete, these companies place active burdens in front of competitors.
As a little-known example, I'm really nervous about Google's power over the Internet standards.
Can anyone imagine a tiny Cambridge company thinking: "We can't find a microprocessor that fits our requirements. Let's design our own!" and designing an architecture that you almost certainly have on your person at the moment?
(There's a brilliant book, I think it's called 'Big Blue', about IBM's attempt to make a PC. The one that succeeded was their *third* attempt - and that only succeeded when they gave Don Estridge his own group and permission to operate outside the company's usual processes.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Howard_Taft_National_Historic_Site
The Brits - especially post Brexit - are notably tolerant. We feel we have control now. So we tolerate higher migration of qualified people
But it may well be a huge issue by 2029, when a Tory party under, say, Badenoch, or a further right populist party under Fuck knows, could win big
To realise this, you need to thought-game a situation where we are like Italy, facing 500,000 people crossing the Channel in dinghies, without about 5 being returned every 9 months. At that point we'd probably vote for Hitler
Hypothetically, if a very nasty person praised something I said or did, or used what I said/did to promote their own ideology and politics which are opposed to mine, I'd take a second to reflect on why they did so, and whether the way I put my view or the action I took inadvertently bolstered that nasty person's nasty ideology . But I might be able to conclude that even nasty people don't have universally nasty views, and I cannot help it if the rather broad point I made overlapped with something they found able to endorse.
I personally don't think that is what happens when people overlap on the extreme ends of the far left or far right on specific issues, I think it is classic horseshoe theory, but people will disagree on the details there. But whilst you don't cast someone out because nasty person X supported or praised them, there's nothing wrong with them wondering why that person did so.
I have no voting in tent.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Blue-Magic-Politics-Personal-Computer/dp/0246134453
IMO well worth a read if you're interested in that part of history. It's interesting to think how history might be different if Estridge hadn't died in 1985.
If you don't want to get the book, the following is a potted history:
https://uk.pcmag.com/news/135020/project-chess-the-story-behind-the-original-ibm-pc
Also, he did say 'feel' we have control, not have control.
I disagree on that point though, I don't think the Tories at least feel we have control and as you say are very mad about that.
But we all know most of the people crossing in boats are taking the piss: Indians were the largest group the month before last, and Albanians have slowed to a trickle from over 12k last year since that new deal came in.
The much bigger issue is the Med and that's where Europe has the real problem.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65804939
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=sline
The word has some currency among my A-level tutees and originates from Neal Stephenson's novel Anathem.
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/rehan-ahmed-will-jacks-moeen-ali-candidates-replace-jack-leach-england-ashes-squad-1379861
Exec summary is that the four-seamer route is the safest and most likely, but don't rule out any of the others, including 18 yo Rehan Ahmed.
This is the centre of St Albans, including the main City Station.
I am sure that anyone who would like to canvas would be welcome by any of the four parties standing - Conservative, Labour, Green, Lib Dem.
I expect that the main fight will between the Green and Lib Dems; it is a Lib Dem resignation and the Greens won the ward in May. Conservatives last won the ward in 2015, but you have to go back to 2002 for a Labour win.
They used to be frequent, avid floggers!
Just been looking at his history of falling over.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-falling-on-stairs-poland-video-ukraine-b2288204.html
"White House physician Kevin O’Connor (writes) that Mr Biden has a stiff gait as the result of 'significant spinal arthritis, mild post-fracture foot arthritis and a mild sensory peripheral neuropathy of the feet'."
The party will be nuts to run with Biden, even if it's Trump on the other side and he gets even more psycho. The Republican campaign will show clips over and over again of Biden's senility. Let it go, Joe. You did well to beat Trump and the world thanks you. Now hand the baton over in the public interest.
Perhaps that’s part of the reason these countries are slowly dying. The dynamic, entrepreneurial ones emigrated to seek their fortune. They certainly didn’t mind about living somewhere - like Australia - that was a melting pot of new cultures. The cautious home-loving ones stayed behind, and just want a quiet life. Immigration means change, and challenge, and things not being like the old days.
We don’t have the emigration problem so much in Britain, at least not these days, because a. unemployment hasn’t been a problem for a long time, and b. we don’t do foreign languages. But our demographics aren’t much better than Italy or Greece. Better, though trending in the wrong direction. But thankfully we have a much more balanced attitude towards immigration.
http://metrocosm.com/eu-diaspora-map/
https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-41153617.html
"Dozens of students who could be kicked out of Canada say they were duped by immigration agents in India"
Researchers say draconian measures taken in spring 2020 had 'negligible impact' on Covid mortality compared with lighter-touch countries"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/04/first-lockdown-prevented-1700-deaths-landmark-study-finds/
To the surprise of precisely nobody who knew anything about economics and thinks that government can cause problems as well as solving them.
https://twitter.com/SollenbergerRC/status/1665467947387691010
If the younger De Santis was the GOP candidate a younger Democrat like Buttigieg or Whitmer might be a better candidate but at the moment Trump remains the GOP frontrunner
Here's my essay about the slaughter of protesters that night in Beijing: https://nytimes.com/2019/06/01/opinion/sunday/tiananmen-square-protest.html . It's infuriating to have witnessed a massacre and then have people deny that it ever happened -- and worse when they quote me as saying it didn't happen!
https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/1665207852921933824
"Lockdown benefits ‘a drop in the bucket compared to the costs’, landmark study finds
Researchers say draconian measures taken in spring 2020 had 'negligible impact' on Covid mortality compared with lighter-touch countries"
https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/claims-johns-hopkins-study-showed-lockdowns-ineffective-reducing-covid-19-mortality-based-working-paper-questionable-methods-fox-news-daily-mail/
Summary: the authors are politically motivated, the use of "Johns Hopkins study" was misleading, the methodology was problematic, and the reporting of the "study" is both slanted and politically motivated.
I'll wait and see if this "paper" goes the same way as the last one but it smells the same.
A dispatch from the world’s first “Tex-Ethiopian smokehouse”
https://www.economist.com/culture/2023/06/01/immigrants-are-changing-central-texas-barbecue-for-the-better
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jun/04/universal-basic-income-of-1600-pounds-a-month-to-be-trialled-in-england
"Universal basic income of £1,600 a month to be trialled in two places in England
Scheme to run for two years and participants will be monitored to see what effect it has on mental and physical health
Thirty people will be paid a lump sum without conditions each month for two years and will be observed to understand the effects on their lives. Two places in England have been selected for the micro pilot scheme: central Jarrow, in north-east England, and East Finchley, in north London.
Hahahaha, get in the fucking bin. The IE fucking A. Big Tobacco think tank, Tufton Street weirdos. Yeah, I'm going to get my health policy information from them, definitely.
I can't speak for @Dura_Ace, except to note that he's taken in Ukrainian refugees, which is more than most of us. As for me, I'm very clear that the invasion was imperialist aggression, and joined Jeremy Hunt and the LibDem leader in a joint rally to denounce it (and to call for support for the refugees locally). I've always supported our stated aim in the early part of the war to give Ukraine defensive weaponry to halt the invasion. But I disagree with the strategy of step by step escalation, which in my view will simply perpetuate and worsen the conflict and the misery, benefiting only extreme nationalists on both sides and at the expense of ordinary Ukrainians.
I don't comment on it often here, as people like Josias instantly go ad hominem about it, and since I can't do anything very useful I can't be bothered to argue with shouty anonymous strangers. But there should be space here for more than one opinion without abuse.
I note your use of words "halt the invasion" leaves the door open for handing over Russian-occupied Ukrainian occupied territory to Russia. I believe this is a repetition of that mistake that has paved the way to this now. Allowing Russia to get away with taking chunks out of its neighbours is what allows Russia to take chunks out of its neighbours.
If someone's broken into a house, you don't just hand over the room they're currently in to "halt" the invasion. You get them thrown out and you make sure you sting their arse so badly on their way out they don't break into another house tomorrow.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/03/us/california-population-decline.html
Britain with a population of around 66 milllion in 2016 means that 4.9 million expats represents about 7.5% of the population.
For Poland its about 9%
For Romania its about 17%
For Ireland its about 19%
For Portugal its around 22%
https://twitter.com/1897WotW
"The United Kingdom was the leading destination (12,000 entries), followed by Spain (8,000), Switzerland (8,000), France (6,000) and Germany (6,000)."
But historically it was France:
"France continues to be the country with the largest number of residents born in Portugal, resulting mainly from the great wave of emigration in the 1960/70’s, with 598,000 individuals.
Switzerland has 207,000 residents born in Portugal, followed by the United States of America (162,000), the United Kingdom (156,000), Brazil (138,000 in 2010), Canada (134,000) and Germany (115,000)."
Source: https://www.portugalresident.com/60000-portuguese-emigrated-in-2021-uk-principal-destination/
Lebanon?
Some small, obscure country whose a) economy fell off a cliff a few decades ago, and b ) had a free movement agreement / liberal visa regime with other more prosperous countries, i'd guess.
Somewhere in the Caribbean, perhaps?
Lesotho/Eswatini?
Anders Breivik of course praised both Jeremy Clarkson and Melanie Phillips in the long manifesto that he murdered 77 people in order to publicise. Phillips's response when asked, if I recall correctly, was that she wasn't going to comment on the actions of an insane person.
@NickPalmer , *before* the war began, you said that we shouldn't 'poke' Russia into it. That places the blame, not on Russia, but on us.
You've made several other claims, including that NATO said they would not expand eastwards - which is rubbish, and another claim the Russians make.
For someone who sees this as imperialist aggression, you are very, very close to your friend Corbyn's and Stop The War's "Blame-The-West" view. Odd, that.
And this matters.
Yes, there should be a multitude of views on here. But when your view is wrong, both morally and factually, expect to get called out for it (as I would my own views). If you want to recant those views, fair enough.