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This would be great for the Tories but for GE2019 CON don’t knows – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited June 2023 in General
This would be great for the Tories but for GE2019 CON don’t knows – politicalbetting.com

Our new poll-of-polls shows #Labour consolidating its lead over the #Conservatives, now at 16pc (up from 15pc last month). Still a landslide for Labour on these figures. Details at: https://t.co/NRkt2WUv6J pic.twitter.com/zL093zxQmM

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Golden rule of elections: the bloody Tories always do surprisingly better than expected. (OK, except in 2017).
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,554
    TimS said:

    Golden rule of elections: the bloody Tories always do surprisingly better than expected. (OK, except in 2017).

    2017 was a unique case where the Tory party committed electoral suicide mid campaign.

    No one is ever going to do that again...
  • Options
    MuesliMuesli Posts: 172
    This would be great for the Tories but for GE2019 CON don’t knows

    Sigh.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    TimS said:

    Golden rule of elections: the bloody Tories always do surprisingly better than expected. (OK, except in 2017).

    And 2010. And 1997.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    So if 100% of those don't knows and won't voters come home to the Tories, I make that 28% of their 2019 44.7% = an extra 12%, taking them up to 40ish. Job done.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,429



    Demanding perfect cultural and political purity is the real “Flag shagging”.

    IKARRRRA!

    (Fiver to charity of choice for the first person to get the above cultural reference)

    https://babylon5.fandom.com/wiki/Ikarra_VII ?
    You win - which charity?

    For those who don't know it - it's a Babylon 5 episode about a society that built war machines to destroy all "impure" and "alien" influences. They did a very good job - destroyed *everything*. A million years later on a dead world, some humans dig up some technology....
  • Options
    WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited June 2023
    FPT
    EPG said:

    As we start Pride Month…

    1. THREAT OF PROSECUTION! The Chief Constable of @HantsPolice has written to us stating that if we post this flag, and it causes anyone anxiety, we will have committed an offence contrary to Communications Act S127 part 2.

    We post today in defiance. Arrest us. Charge us. Or shut up.


    https://twitter.com/wearefaircop/status/1664178763280658432

    [4 images of the new-ish Pride flag that might cause anxiety or distress (sic) ]

    I do think there are better ways to make one's case than putting a swastika over the symbol of a group selected for the concentration camps by the actual Nazis.
    "I killed 27 people. What are you in for?"
    "I made a case suboptimally on Twitter."

    That cop is full of it. Causing someone anxiety isn't against the law. S127(2) of the Act says this:

    "A person is guilty of an offence if, for the purpose of causing annoyance, inconvenience or needless anxiety to another, he—

    (a)sends by means of a public electronic communications network, a message that he knows to be false,
    (b)causes such a message to be sent; or
    (c)persistently makes use of a public electronic communications network.
    "

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/21/section/127

  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,247
    dixiedean said:

    TimS said:

    Golden rule of elections: the bloody Tories always do surprisingly better than expected. (OK, except in 2017).

    And 2010. And 1997.
    The Tories' vote share was slightly better than expected in 1997.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,429
    Westie said:

    FPT

    EPG said:

    As we start Pride Month…

    1. THREAT OF PROSECUTION! The Chief Constable of @HantsPolice has written to us stating that if we post this flag, and it causes anyone anxiety, we will have committed an offence contrary to Communications Act S127 part 2.

    We post today in defiance. Arrest us. Charge us. Or shut up.


    https://twitter.com/wearefaircop/status/1664178763280658432

    [4 images of the new-ish Pride flag that might cause anxiety or distress (sic) ]

    I do think there are better ways to make one's case than putting a swastika over the symbol of a group selected for the concentration camps by the actual Nazis.
    "I killed 27 people. What are you in for?"
    "I made a case suboptimally on Twitter."

    That cop is full of it. Causing someone anxiety isn't against the law. S127(2) of the Act says this:

    "A person is guilty of an offence if, for the purpose of causing annoyance, inconvenience or needless anxiety to another, he—

    (a)sends by means of a public electronic communications network, a message that he knows to be false,
    (b)causes such a message to be sent; or
    (c)persistently makes use of a public electronic communications network.
    "

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/21/section/127

    I wonder if I can make a case that detaining people for Driving A Nice Car While Black causes me upset.

    Could I get the police to arrest themselves?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,438



    Demanding perfect cultural and political purity is the real “Flag shagging”.

    IKARRRRA!

    (Fiver to charity of choice for the first person to get the above cultural reference)

    https://babylon5.fandom.com/wiki/Ikarra_VII ?
    You win - which charity?

    For those who don't know it - it's a Babylon 5 episode about a society that built war machines to destroy all "impure" and "alien" influences. They did a very good job - destroyed *everything*. A million years later on a dead world, some humans dig up some technology....
    Thanks! https://www.ciwf.org.uk/ please, if you don't object to what we do (essentially trying to stop the spread of factory farms), otherwise Oxfam?

    I really enjoyed the Babylon 5 episodes that I watched but never really got into it. What is the best way to binge-watch from the start, if I ever find the time?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    On topic, I watched the final episode of Succession last night. Superb. What a drama. Straight into the pantheon of greats, I reckon: along with Sopranos, Breaking Bad, GOT, Spartacus, et al

    We are still in a golden age of TV

    I noticed, after some investigating, that the main writers on the series are Brits. Well done them. Relatedly I also noticed, in the final episode, that the Roy children - in times of extremely high emotion - lapse into British accents. At one point they are clearly doing it to mimic their British mother, but later it just seems to be a thing they do

    I’ve noticed this elsewhere in American life, recently. UK accents and slang sneaking in. Peculiar
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    dixiedean said:

    TimS said:

    Golden rule of elections: the bloody Tories always do surprisingly better than expected. (OK, except in 2017).

    And 2010. And 1997.
    Major did much better than expected in 1997. Beat the polls by some distance. It's just that most people hadn't believed Labour could get a landslide.

    In 2010 they were polling between 32 and 39% during the campaign, and 35-37% towards the end with a 4-9% lead, and ended up actually getting 36% vs Labour's 29%, a 7% lead. So the polls were pretty much bang on.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    TimS said:

    So if 100% of those don't knows and won't voters come home to the Tories, I make that 28% of their 2019 44.7% = an extra 12%, taking them up to 40ish. Job done.

    We should be able to look at opinion poll data from past elections and see to what extent those saying don't know return to their previous affiliation, or move on, and how this varies according to the general political climate.

    But there's a Test match on, the Russians are about to lose Belgorod, and I've work to do, so I regret I don't have time.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    TimS said:

    Golden rule of elections: the bloody Tories always do surprisingly better than expected. (OK, except in 2017).

    And 2010. And 1997.
    The Tories' vote share was slightly better than expected in 1997.
    Indeed. But their seat total was massively under expectations.
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    I think people generally forget that Tory abstention was necessary in 1997 - the Thatcher / Major years, the Tory sleaze scandals of the time, the fact that people weren't worried ideologically about New Labour - meant that turnout was lower than other GEs and that a lot of Tory voters abstained. Now we poll more, that same pattern could just be seen through the "Don't Knows" - not quite willing to say they won't vote at all, but not willing to say they will vote Tory again.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Leon said:

    On topic, I watched the final episode of Succession last night. Superb. What a drama. Straight into the pantheon of greats, I reckon: along with Sopranos, Breaking Bad, GOT, Spartacus, et al

    We are still in a golden age of TV

    I noticed, after some investigating, that the main writers on the series are Brits. Well done them. Relatedly I also noticed, in the final episode, that the Roy children - in times of extremely high emotion - lapse into British accents. At one point they are clearly doing it to mimic their British mother, but later it just seems to be a thing they do

    I’ve noticed this elsewhere in American life, recently. UK accents and slang sneaking in. Peculiar

    The classiest thing about the final episode was the neatness and credibility of the whole thing. No silly Eastenders-style dramatic murders or suicides, no deus ex-machina or sudden personality transformations. Too many dramas end up with everyone dying in one way or another, or at least one dramatic suicide of the main protagonist. The way it played out was completely believable and drew a proper line under the series.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,429



    Demanding perfect cultural and political purity is the real “Flag shagging”.

    IKARRRRA!

    (Fiver to charity of choice for the first person to get the above cultural reference)

    https://babylon5.fandom.com/wiki/Ikarra_VII ?
    You win - which charity?

    For those who don't know it - it's a Babylon 5 episode about a society that built war machines to destroy all "impure" and "alien" influences. They did a very good job - destroyed *everything*. A million years later on a dead world, some humans dig up some technology....
    Thanks! https://www.ciwf.org.uk/ please, if you don't object to what we do (essentially trying to stop the spread of factory farms), otherwise Oxfam?

    I really enjoyed the Babylon 5 episodes that I watched but never really got into it. What is the best way to binge-watch from the start, if I ever find the time?
    The first season is all over the place. I kind of grin and bear it on re-watch.

    The problem is that without watching it all, you miss the build up of the overall arc story line. Which really ends at the end of Season 4. Season 5 is a bit like the Scouring of the Shire.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 11,138
    fpt

    And here is the problem again with @leon. When he loses an argument he resorts to insults about someone's intelligence. Why he does this I don't know as it is so apparent.

    He also jumped to a huge assumption about the 'experts' I referred to without any knowledge as to who they actually were. I mean he has no clue as I didn't say. I have to admit I can't remember myself, but was just listening to interviews and discussions on Radio 4 over the last few days and they all said they didn't know.

    This is why people laugh at your posts Leon. They may be well written, but you jump to all sorts of conclusions and come out with completely mad ideas and panic like a 5 year old, so that when you do come out with something sane people still think you are nuts.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    TimS said:

    Golden rule of elections: the bloody Tories always do surprisingly better than expected. (OK, except in 2017).

    Only really 1992 and 2015 in my lifetime. All the other results were in line with expectations, apart from 2017.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, I watched the final episode of Succession last night. Superb. What a drama. Straight into the pantheon of greats, I reckon: along with Sopranos, Breaking Bad, GOT, Spartacus, et al

    We are still in a golden age of TV

    I noticed, after some investigating, that the main writers on the series are Brits. Well done them. Relatedly I also noticed, in the final episode, that the Roy children - in times of extremely high emotion - lapse into British accents. At one point they are clearly doing it to mimic their British mother, but later it just seems to be a thing they do

    I’ve noticed this elsewhere in American life, recently. UK accents and slang sneaking in. Peculiar

    The classiest thing about the final episode was the neatness and credibility of the whole thing. No silly Eastenders-style dramatic murders or suicides, no deus ex-machina or sudden personality transformations. Too many dramas end up with everyone dying in one way or another, or at least one dramatic suicide of the main protagonist. The way it played out was completely believable and drew a proper line under the series.
    Yes, I was sure one of the kids was gonna die. Yet they avoided that. And it was still satisfying. Basically everyone failed apart from Tom, and even he was left in a deeply troubled marriage

    There is nothing wrong with dramas that end with deaths or weddings, they make naturally good endings. But it’s nice to see something different

    My only complaint was the entire thing being too short. Just four seasons. Couldn’t we have had one more? But perhaps that was a genius decision too. Leave the audience slightly hungry
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,331



    Demanding perfect cultural and political purity is the real “Flag shagging”.

    IKARRRRA!

    (Fiver to charity of choice for the first person to get the above cultural reference)

    https://babylon5.fandom.com/wiki/Ikarra_VII ?
    You win - which charity?

    For those who don't know it - it's a Babylon 5 episode about a society that built war machines to destroy all "impure" and "alien" influences. They did a very good job - destroyed *everything*. A million years later on a dead world, some humans dig up some technology....
    Thanks! https://www.ciwf.org.uk/ please, if you don't object to what we do (essentially trying to stop the spread of factory farms), otherwise Oxfam?

    I really enjoyed the Babylon 5 episodes that I watched but never really got into it. What is the best way to binge-watch from the start, if I ever find the time?
    I first watched B5 when it was broadcast on UK TV, and could not catch all episodes, which spoilt it a lot. Years later, a friend leant us the DVDs, and we binge-watched the entire thing. An absolute must-watch if you're into scifi (and even if you're not).

    Oh, and a mention of Farscape as well. It's surprising how well a mixture of live-action and puppets works.

    Both these series have great plot arcs. Unlike, say, Star Trek.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,673
    TimS said:

    So if 100% of those don't knows and won't voters come home to the Tories, I make that 28% of their 2019 44.7% = an extra 12%, taking them up to 40ish. Job done.

    A troubling conclusion ! But it could happen. Hopefully not as really after 13 years is there a single thing in this country that’s better than when Labour left office in 2010 ?

    If the Tories get in again then this country has completely lost its mind .
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736
    Belgorod Massive are having a good day. Main local authority office in border town Shebikino is on fire.

    https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1664201022003204096
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727
    148grss said:

    I think people generally forget that Tory abstention was necessary in 1997 - the Thatcher / Major years, the Tory sleaze scandals of the time, the fact that people weren't worried ideologically about New Labour - meant that turnout was lower than other GEs and that a lot of Tory voters abstained. Now we poll more, that same pattern could just be seen through the "Don't Knows" - not quite willing to say they won't vote at all, but not willing to say they will vote Tory again.

    Labour win elections when enough Tories abstain or split their votes elsewhere. They don't win elections by loads of Tories suddenly and exclusively becoming Labour voters.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    kjh said:

    fpt

    And here is the problem again with @leon. When he loses an argument he resorts to insults about someone's intelligence. Why he does this I don't know as it is so apparent.

    He also jumped to a huge assumption about the 'experts' I referred to without any knowledge as to who they actually were. I mean he has no clue as I didn't say. I have to admit I can't remember myself, but was just listening to interviews and discussions on Radio 4 over the last few days and they all said they didn't know.

    This is why people laugh at your posts Leon. They may be well written, but you jump to all sorts of conclusions and come out with completely mad ideas and panic like a 5 year old, so that when you do come out with something sane people still think you are nuts.

    “I have to admit I can't remember myself,”


    Hahahaha
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736

    148grss said:

    I think people generally forget that Tory abstention was necessary in 1997 - the Thatcher / Major years, the Tory sleaze scandals of the time, the fact that people weren't worried ideologically about New Labour - meant that turnout was lower than other GEs and that a lot of Tory voters abstained. Now we poll more, that same pattern could just be seen through the "Don't Knows" - not quite willing to say they won't vote at all, but not willing to say they will vote Tory again.

    Labour win elections when enough Tories abstain or split their votes elsewhere. They don't win elections by loads of Tories suddenly and exclusively becoming Labour voters.
    Yes, the biggest 1997 story was the Tory abstentions, compared to their record vote in 1992.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,429



    Demanding perfect cultural and political purity is the real “Flag shagging”.

    IKARRRRA!

    (Fiver to charity of choice for the first person to get the above cultural reference)

    https://babylon5.fandom.com/wiki/Ikarra_VII ?
    You win - which charity?

    For those who don't know it - it's a Babylon 5 episode about a society that built war machines to destroy all "impure" and "alien" influences. They did a very good job - destroyed *everything*. A million years later on a dead world, some humans dig up some technology....
    Thanks! https://www.ciwf.org.uk/ please, if you don't object to what we do (essentially trying to stop the spread of factory farms), otherwise Oxfam?

    I really enjoyed the Babylon 5 episodes that I watched but never really got into it. What is the best way to binge-watch from the start, if I ever find the time?
    I first watched B5 when it was broadcast on UK TV, and could not catch all episodes, which spoilt it a lot. Years later, a friend leant us the DVDs, and we binge-watched the entire thing. An absolute must-watch if you're into scifi (and even if you're not).

    Oh, and a mention of Farscape as well. It's surprising how well a mixture of live-action and puppets works.

    Both these series have great plot arcs. Unlike, say, Star Trek.
    B5 massively pushed plot arcs in episodic TV - before, studio execs really, really hated them. Star Trek writers had frequently tried for more plot arcs, but had been told no.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    Troubling
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,331
    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    I'll believe it when the devil sends him back as being too bad even for Hell.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    edited June 2023
    On topic. “My strong view is that the LAB position is being artificially inflated.”

    I think you will find every PB poster (except perhaps Heathener) will agree with that tag line Mike.

    Question is to what degree. Because absolutely no one thinks it will be 157 seats v 420. And the thing you keep flagging up, the Tory Don’t Know Pool is at the “we are going to need a bigger pool” stage. However it is agreed by all of us (?) 1997 was built upon just 15% 1992 Tory’s switching to Labour plus a lot of 1992 Tory abstentions plus a lot of get the Tories put tactical voting.

    So we are all agreed, except perhaps one PB poster, the Labour figure is inflated by the Tory d/k. But if this is proved true, so not 420 seats just 70 less at 350 - 350 is also sounds an unbelievable more seats going from Rishi to Starmer than Blair managed.

    Do we have any evidence of Tory d/k from 1996? Because we know 1997 is built upon not swingback late in like 1992, 5 years later don’t knows became didn’t votes.

    And another reason we should suspend disbelief, Blair started on 70 more seats than Starmer, and this suggests a lot more easy to pick fruit for Starmer before it’s gets harder? So starting further back with lots more easy to pick fruit than Blair, why shouldn’t Starmer eclipse the number of seats Blair won?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,429
    Sandpit said:

    Belgorod Massive are having a good day. Main local authority office in border town Shebikino is on fire.

    https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1664201022003204096

    Hmmmm

    image
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, I watched the final episode of Succession last night. Superb. What a drama. Straight into the pantheon of greats, I reckon: along with Sopranos, Breaking Bad, GOT, Spartacus, et al

    We are still in a golden age of TV

    I noticed, after some investigating, that the main writers on the series are Brits. Well done them. Relatedly I also noticed, in the final episode, that the Roy children - in times of extremely high emotion - lapse into British accents. At one point they are clearly doing it to mimic their British mother, but later it just seems to be a thing they do

    I’ve noticed this elsewhere in American life, recently. UK accents and slang sneaking in. Peculiar

    The classiest thing about the final episode was the neatness and credibility of the whole thing. No silly Eastenders-style dramatic murders or suicides, no deus ex-machina or sudden personality transformations. Too many dramas end up with everyone dying in one way or another, or at least one dramatic suicide of the main protagonist. The way it played out was completely believable and drew a proper line under the series.
    Yes, I was sure one of the kids was gonna die. Yet they avoided that. And it was still satisfying. Basically everyone failed apart from Tom, and even he was left in a deeply troubled marriage

    There is nothing wrong with dramas that end with deaths or weddings, they make naturally good endings. But it’s nice to see something different

    My only complaint was the entire thing being too short. Just four seasons. Couldn’t we have had one more? But perhaps that was a genius decision too. Leave the audience slightly hungry
    I thought Connor won.

    He had the best relationship with Logan and never wanted to run the company.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736
    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    Granny Schapps! What’s her game?
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,532

    On topic. “My strong view is that the LAB position is being artificially inflated.”

    I think you will find every PB poster (except perhaps Heathener) will agree with that tag line Mike.

    Question is to what degree. Because absolutely no one thinks it will be 157 seats v 420. And the thing you keep flagging up, the Tory Don’t Know Pool is at the “we are going to need a bigger pool” stage. However it is agreed by all of us (?) 1997 was built upon just 15% 1992 Tory’s switching to Labour plus a lot of 1992 Tory abstentions plus a lot of get the Tories put tactical voting.

    So we are all agreed, except perhaps one PB poster, the Labour figure is inflated by the Tory d/k. But if this is proved true, so not 420 seats just 70 less at 350 - 350 is also sounds an unbelievable more seats going from Rishi to Starmer than Blair managed.

    Do we have any evidence of Tory d/k from 1996? Because we know 1997 is built upon not swingback late in like 1992, 5 years later don’t knows became didn’t votes.

    And another reason we should suspend disbelief, Blair started on 70 more seats than Starmer, and this suggests a lot more easy to pick fruit for Starmer before it’s gets harder? So starting further back with lots more easy to pick fruit than Blair, why shouldn’t Starmer eclipse the number of seats Blair won?

    I think LAB are on target for the 300 - 340 outcome. But even 300 will be enough for Keir to move in to Number 10 with the support of his friends.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, I watched the final episode of Succession last night. Superb. What a drama. Straight into the pantheon of greats, I reckon: along with Sopranos, Breaking Bad, GOT, Spartacus, et al

    We are still in a golden age of TV

    I noticed, after some investigating, that the main writers on the series are Brits. Well done them. Relatedly I also noticed, in the final episode, that the Roy children - in times of extremely high emotion - lapse into British accents. At one point they are clearly doing it to mimic their British mother, but later it just seems to be a thing they do

    I’ve noticed this elsewhere in American life, recently. UK accents and slang sneaking in. Peculiar

    The classiest thing about the final episode was the neatness and credibility of the whole thing. No silly Eastenders-style dramatic murders or suicides, no deus ex-machina or sudden personality transformations. Too many dramas end up with everyone dying in one way or another, or at least one dramatic suicide of the main protagonist. The way it played out was completely believable and drew a proper line under the series.
    Yes, I was sure one of the kids was gonna die. Yet they avoided that. And it was still satisfying. Basically everyone failed apart from Tom, and even he was left in a deeply troubled marriage

    There is nothing wrong with dramas that end with deaths or weddings, they make naturally good endings. But it’s nice to see something different

    My only complaint was the entire thing being too short. Just four seasons. Couldn’t we have had one more? But perhaps that was a genius decision too. Leave the audience slightly hungry
    I thought Connor won.

    He had the best relationship with Logan and never wanted to run the company.
    I disagree. He became an evermore comical figure and increasingly irrelevant

    No one won. Which is only right in that kind of cut throat drama
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 11,138
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    fpt

    And here is the problem again with @leon. When he loses an argument he resorts to insults about someone's intelligence. Why he does this I don't know as it is so apparent.

    He also jumped to a huge assumption about the 'experts' I referred to without any knowledge as to who they actually were. I mean he has no clue as I didn't say. I have to admit I can't remember myself, but was just listening to interviews and discussions on Radio 4 over the last few days and they all said they didn't know.

    This is why people laugh at your posts Leon. They may be well written, but you jump to all sorts of conclusions and come out with completely mad ideas and panic like a 5 year old, so that when you do come out with something sane people still think you are nuts.

    “I have to admit I can't remember myself,”


    Hahahaha
    Are you completely off your trolley. The important bit is you don't know who they were and therefore you don't know they were the ones you wrongly claimed they were.

    It was clear they were experts in the field and not some prat off the street called Leon because it was a serious programme, but I wasn't sitting there with a pencil and paper noting down who they were for a future discussion with you.

    For someone who claims to be more intelligent than all of us you have a very limited grasp of basis logic.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Babylon 5 is awesome.

    In Valen’s name.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,429

    Babylon 5 is awesome.

    In Valen’s name.

    "Everyone always coming to Zathras with problems. Great responsibilities. But Zathras does not mind. Zathras trained in crisis management."
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,554
    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    Surely Putin will need to move to put his choice of man in place?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    FPT... regarding the largely synthesised outrage over RAF recruitment.

    There are about 770 crew in the training system at the moment Of these about 430 are "holding" (that is doing made up ground jobs) due to lack of, well, everything in the training system. This total mismanagement has a far greater effect on the RAF's combat power than the demographic conditioning of the intake. Which is, in itself, a worthy endeavour.

    I look forward to some middle aged white men getting agitated over that.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    95% of Belarusians want the white-red-white flag and a democratic future. Any Russian place man is unlikely to survive for long. It will take a lot to provoke the Belarusians to violence, but it could happen. There is already a government in exile and in the Kaliniauski battalion now regiment, an army in exile too
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    I'd wager the latter.
    Anyways. Be more significant if it is Lukashenko. Lukashenka would be his wife or daughter.
    (No idea if he has either. But it's vital to start the month as pedantically as you mean to go on).
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    TimS said:

    dixiedean said:

    TimS said:

    Golden rule of elections: the bloody Tories always do surprisingly better than expected. (OK, except in 2017).

    And 2010. And 1997.
    Major did much better than expected in 1997. Beat the polls by some distance. It's just that most people hadn't believed Labour could get a landslide.

    In 2010 they were polling between 32 and 39% during the campaign, and 35-37% towards the end with a 4-9% lead, and ended up actually getting 36% vs Labour's 29%, a 7% lead. So the polls were pretty much bang on.
    Again though.
    Their seat total was seen as a disappointment.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, I watched the final episode of Succession last night. Superb. What a drama. Straight into the pantheon of greats, I reckon: along with Sopranos, Breaking Bad, GOT, Spartacus, et al

    We are still in a golden age of TV

    I noticed, after some investigating, that the main writers on the series are Brits. Well done them. Relatedly I also noticed, in the final episode, that the Roy children - in times of extremely high emotion - lapse into British accents. At one point they are clearly doing it to mimic their British mother, but later it just seems to be a thing they do

    I’ve noticed this elsewhere in American life, recently. UK accents and slang sneaking in. Peculiar

    The classiest thing about the final episode was the neatness and credibility of the whole thing. No silly Eastenders-style dramatic murders or suicides, no deus ex-machina or sudden personality transformations. Too many dramas end up with everyone dying in one way or another, or at least one dramatic suicide of the main protagonist. The way it played out was completely believable and drew a proper line under the series.
    Yes, I was sure one of the kids was gonna die. Yet they avoided that. And it was still satisfying. Basically everyone failed apart from Tom, and even he was left in a deeply troubled marriage

    There is nothing wrong with dramas that end with deaths or weddings, they make naturally good endings. But it’s nice to see something different

    My only complaint was the entire thing being too short. Just four seasons. Couldn’t we have had one more? But perhaps that was a genius decision too. Leave the audience slightly hungry
    I thought Connor won.

    He had the best relationship with Logan and never wanted to run the company.
    I disagree. He became an evermore comical figure and increasingly irrelevant

    No one won. Which is only right in that kind of cut throat drama
    Matsson (who was *splendidly* punchable throughout) won. Wambsgans... maybe - the pain sponge role is something he was born for. Greg the Egg managed to hang on in his own peculiar way.

    Roman and Shiv you can see moving on to different things. Connor will enjoy his ambassadorship for the six months it lasts, then he'll go back to his ranch and continue his hairbrained political career. Kendall is the truly tragic figure, as he says himself: there is nothing else he can really do.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    I'd wager the latter.
    Anyways. Be more significant if it is Lukashenko. Lukashenka would be his wife or daughter.
    (No idea if he has either. But it's vital to start the month as pedantically as you mean to go on).
    No Lukashenka is his name in Belarusian
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    Cicero said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    I'd wager the latter.
    Anyways. Be more significant if it is Lukashenko. Lukashenka would be his wife or daughter.
    (No idea if he has either. But it's vital to start the month as pedantically as you mean to go on).
    No Lukashenka is his name in Belarusian
    Then I stand corrected.
    Why is that may I ask? Is that the masculine form? Or don't they have that?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736
    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    95% of Belarusians want the white-red-white flag and a democratic future. Any Russian place man is unlikely to survive for long. It will take a lot to provoke the Belarusians to violence, but it could happen. There is already a government in exile and in the Kaliniauski battalion now regiment, an army in exile too
    Interesting, thanks.

    I wonder if there’s a small window of opportunity to blockade the border between Belarus and Russia, which makes Putin’s job an awful lot harder.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    edited June 2023
    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    95% of Belarusians want the white-red-white flag and a democratic future. Any Russian place man is unlikely to survive for long. It will take a lot to provoke the Belarusians to violence, but it could happen. There is already a government in exile and in the Kaliniauski battalion now regiment, an army in exile too
    Tikhanovskaya is in exile and has an 8 year prison sentence hanging over her so it's hard to see a route into the Palace of Independence from that starting point. If Batka (who has been a pain in VVP's dick for decades over his flexible loyalty) has megged it then surely his replacement will be somebody more Russia adjacent who is likely to throw the full military might of Belarus into the SMO like Kochanova or Golovchenko.
  • Options
    WestieWestie Posts: 426
    Cicero said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    I'd wager the latter.
    Anyways. Be more significant if it is Lukashenko. Lukashenka would be his wife or daughter.
    (No idea if he has either. But it's vital to start the month as pedantically as you mean to go on).
    No Lukashenka is his name in Belarusian
    In Belarusian he is Лукашэнка. The English transliteration used by the Belarusian state news agency is Lukashenko.

    https://eng.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-names-key-security-threats-to-cis-159291-2023/

    The rumour may be false.

    "(H)e met with participants of the 52nd meeting of the CIS Council of Heads of Security Agencies and Special Services in Minsk on 1 June, BelTA has learned."

    Also there is this:

    https://eng.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-west-is-preparing-coup-dtat-in-belarus-159294-2023/

    "MINSK, 1 June (BelTA) – The West is masterminding a violent scenario to overthrow the government in Belarus, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko said."


  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    95% of Belarusians want the white-red-white flag and a democratic future. Any Russian place man is unlikely to survive for long. It will take a lot to provoke the Belarusians to violence, but it could happen. There is already a government in exile and in the Kaliniauski battalion now regiment, an army in exile too
    Interesting, thanks.

    I wonder if there’s a small window of opportunity to blockade the border between Belarus and Russia, which makes Putin’s job an awful lot harder.
    Blockaded by whom? The border is over 1,000km long with many uncontrolled crossing points.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, I watched the final episode of Succession last night. Superb. What a drama. Straight into the pantheon of greats, I reckon: along with Sopranos, Breaking Bad, GOT, Spartacus, et al

    We are still in a golden age of TV

    I noticed, after some investigating, that the main writers on the series are Brits. Well done them. Relatedly I also noticed, in the final episode, that the Roy children - in times of extremely high emotion - lapse into British accents. At one point they are clearly doing it to mimic their British mother, but later it just seems to be a thing they do

    I’ve noticed this elsewhere in American life, recently. UK accents and slang sneaking in. Peculiar

    The classiest thing about the final episode was the neatness and credibility of the whole thing. No silly Eastenders-style dramatic murders or suicides, no deus ex-machina or sudden personality transformations. Too many dramas end up with everyone dying in one way or another, or at least one dramatic suicide of the main protagonist. The way it played out was completely believable and drew a proper line under the series.
    Yes, I was sure one of the kids was gonna die. Yet they avoided that. And it was still satisfying. Basically everyone failed apart from Tom, and even he was left in a deeply troubled marriage

    There is nothing wrong with dramas that end with deaths or weddings, they make naturally good endings. But it’s nice to see something different

    My only complaint was the entire thing being too short. Just four seasons. Couldn’t we have had one more? But perhaps that was a genius decision too. Leave the audience slightly hungry
    I thought Connor won.

    He had the best relationship with Logan and never wanted to run the company.
    I disagree. He became an evermore comical figure and increasingly irrelevant

    No one won. Which is only right in that kind of cut throat drama
    Matsson (who was *splendidly* punchable throughout) won. Wambsgans... maybe - the pain sponge role is something he was born for. Greg the Egg managed to hang on in his own peculiar way.

    Roman and Shiv you can see moving on to different things. Connor will enjoy his ambassadorship for the six months it lasts, then he'll go back to his ranch and continue his hairbrained political career. Kendall is the truly tragic figure, as he says himself: there is nothing else he can really do.
    Yes, I guess Matsson won

    He was excellently drawn. That persistent hint of creepiness. The blood!

    In the end Kendall was the most likeable character when he started as one of the most dislikeable. Great arc
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Succession was also notably unWoke. I can’t recall a significant recent drama with so FEW black/Asian actors. There were no tokens. It was what it was. And it was about a wildly rich dysfunctional white family

    And they were misogynistic, snobbish, aggressive, nasty, maybe even a little bit racist

    And it was first class. Unwoke art is better art
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171
    eek said:

    TimS said:

    Golden rule of elections: the bloody Tories always do surprisingly better than expected. (OK, except in 2017).

    2017 was a unique case where the Tory party committed electoral suicide mid campaign.

    No one is ever going to do that again...
    The Tories moved from committing electoral suicide mid campaign to just committing electoral suicide as the opening move of Truss’s premiership.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171



    Demanding perfect cultural and political purity is the real “Flag shagging”.

    IKARRRRA!

    (Fiver to charity of choice for the first person to get the above cultural reference)

    https://babylon5.fandom.com/wiki/Ikarra_VII ?
    You win - which charity?

    For those who don't know it - it's a Babylon 5 episode about a society that built war machines to destroy all "impure" and "alien" influences. They did a very good job - destroyed *everything*. A million years later on a dead world, some humans dig up some technology....
    Which was JMS being inspired by the Sentinels in the X-Men comics.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    95% of Belarusians want the white-red-white flag and a democratic future. Any Russian place man is unlikely to survive for long. It will take a lot to provoke the Belarusians to violence, but it could happen. There is already a government in exile and in the Kaliniauski battalion now regiment, an army in exile too
    Interesting, thanks.

    I wonder if there’s a small window of opportunity to blockade the border between Belarus and Russia, which makes Putin’s job an awful lot harder.
    Blockaded by whom? The border is over 1,000km long with many uncontrolled crossing points.
    But only a small number of railway lines.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    1st June. 12C at noon. Wasn’t this meant to be a week of unbroken sun? UGH
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736
    Leon said:

    1st June. 12C at noon. Wasn’t this meant to be a week of unbroken sun? UGH

    Lucky you. Some of us have 41ºC at 3pm. Summer’s here, and not in a good way. Bring on October.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    Leon said:

    Succession was also notably unWoke. I can’t recall a significant recent drama with so FEW black/Asian actors. There were no tokens. It was what it was. And it was about a wildly rich dysfunctional white family

    And they were misogynistic, snobbish, aggressive, nasty, maybe even a little bit racist

    And it was first class. Unwoke art is better art

    I think it's not quite unWoke to portray white people as evil and rich in a somehow unmerited way. At least based on my understanding of what Woke is meant to be.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171
    Westie said:

    FPT

    EPG said:

    As we start Pride Month…

    1. THREAT OF PROSECUTION! The Chief Constable of @HantsPolice has written to us stating that if we post this flag, and it causes anyone anxiety, we will have committed an offence contrary to Communications Act S127 part 2.

    We post today in defiance. Arrest us. Charge us. Or shut up.


    https://twitter.com/wearefaircop/status/1664178763280658432

    [4 images of the new-ish Pride flag that might cause anxiety or distress (sic) ]

    I do think there are better ways to make one's case than putting a swastika over the symbol of a group selected for the concentration camps by the actual Nazis.
    "I killed 27 people. What are you in for?"
    "I made a case suboptimally on Twitter."

    That cop is full of it. Causing someone anxiety isn't against the law. S127(2) of the Act says this:

    "A person is guilty of an offence if, for the purpose of causing annoyance, inconvenience or needless anxiety to another, he—

    (a)sends by means of a public electronic communications network, a message that he knows to be false,
    (b)causes such a message to be sent; or
    (c)persistently makes use of a public electronic communications network.
    "

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/21/section/127

    Their actions are being deliberately provocative. This “flag” only has the purpose of winding people up. I don’t necessarily agree with the law, but it would appear to be at least close to “for the purpose of causing annoyance, inconvenience or needless anxiety to another”, no?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    I'd wager the latter.
    Anyways. Be more significant if it is Lukashenko. Lukashenka would be his wife or daughter.
    (No idea if he has either. But it's vital to start the month as pedantically as you mean to go on).
    The 'Lukashenko' surname, like most -o surnames, has neutral grammatical gender and therefore does not change when used by female. Hence AGL's unlucky Mrs (imagine being fucking drilled by that) known as Галина Родионовна Лукашенко in Russian - which is all we care about. Other examples are Ludmilla Radchenko (actress, model, whatever) and Natasha Stefanenko (also actress, model, whatever).

    In an educated Moscow accent, which everybody should strive to affect, the terminal 'o' is sounded as 'a' which adds to the confusion.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171



    Demanding perfect cultural and political purity is the real “Flag shagging”.

    IKARRRRA!

    (Fiver to charity of choice for the first person to get the above cultural reference)

    https://babylon5.fandom.com/wiki/Ikarra_VII ?
    You win - which charity?

    For those who don't know it - it's a Babylon 5 episode about a society that built war machines to destroy all "impure" and "alien" influences. They did a very good job - destroyed *everything*. A million years later on a dead world, some humans dig up some technology....
    Thanks! https://www.ciwf.org.uk/ please, if you don't object to what we do (essentially trying to stop the spread of factory farms), otherwise Oxfam?

    I really enjoyed the Babylon 5 episodes that I watched but never really got into it. What is the best way to binge-watch from the start, if I ever find the time?
    It is a very arc-based series, so it makes sense to start at the beginning, although the density of arc material versus standalone material really ramps up in season 2. Also, you can skip season 5, except for the very last episode.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    Succession was also notably unWoke. I can’t recall a significant recent drama with so FEW black/Asian actors. There were no tokens. It was what it was. And it was about a wildly rich dysfunctional white family

    And they were misogynistic, snobbish, aggressive, nasty, maybe even a little bit racist

    And it was first class. Unwoke art is better art

    I think it's not quite unWoke to portray white people as evil and rich in a somehow unmerited way. At least based on my understanding of what Woke is meant to be.
    It didn’t pander to the absurd new Woke Hollywood casting rules, which literally demand a large percentage of BME actors, writers, producers etc
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736
    Dura_Ace said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    I'd wager the latter.
    Anyways. Be more significant if it is Lukashenko. Lukashenka would be his wife or daughter.
    (No idea if he has either. But it's vital to start the month as pedantically as you mean to go on).
    The 'Lukashenko' surname, like most -o surnames, has neutral grammatical gender and therefore does not change when used by female. Hence AGL's unlucky Mrs (imagine being fucking drilled by that) known as Галина Родионовна Лукашенко in Russian - which is all we care about. Other examples are Ludmilla Radchenko (actress, model, whatever) and Natasha Stefanenko (also actress, model, whatever).

    In an educated Moscow accent, which everybody should strive to affect, the terminal 'o' is sounded as 'a' which adds to the confusion.
    How the hell did you learn Russian? I’ve been trying to learn it for a decade, and failed miserably. Do you just have to live somewhere that speaks it for a few years, and avoid all the youngsters who see you as a way to practice the English skills that will get them out of their own hellhole?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    1st June. 12C at noon. Wasn’t this meant to be a week of unbroken sun? UGH

    Lucky you. Some of us have 41ºC at 3pm. Summer’s here, and not in a good way. Bring on October.
    Dubai in summer isnt a nice place without air conditioning
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    My Cornish family tell me they are bathed in unbroken sun. Fiends
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Miss Cyclefree, hope you're able to recover soon.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,331
    Leon said:

    1st June. 12C at noon. Wasn’t this meant to be a week of unbroken sun? UGH

    It was marvellous in Southampton the last few days. Wonderful weather. It's a bit cooler (six degrees) in Cambridge here today.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited June 2023
    It is certainly true that, in general, a good proportion of 'Don't knows' tend to return to their previous voting pattern, and also that Con voters tend to feel a duty to turn out and vote. So I would tend to agree with Mike's view, although it is hard to calibrate to what extent we should expect a move from Don't Knows to Con as the election nears.

    My only doubt about this is that the 2019 Con voters included many people who were not traditionally Tory voters, and many of those are now in the Don't Know camp, as well as being in crucial 'Red Wall' seats. Will they behave in a way which we might expect from previous elections? They might well neither feel the duty to vote, nor the long-term loyalty to the Conservative brand, that we have come to expect from their disgruntled mid-term counterparts in previous elections.

    One has to recognise that, this far out, there is a lot of uncertainty about this, overlaid with economic uncertainty. At the moment I'm expecting a modest Labour majority, but with big error bars around that expectation.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Dura_Ace said:

    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    95% of Belarusians want the white-red-white flag and a democratic future. Any Russian place man is unlikely to survive for long. It will take a lot to provoke the Belarusians to violence, but it could happen. There is already a government in exile and in the Kaliniauski battalion now regiment, an army in exile too
    Tikhanovskaya is in exile and has an 8 year prison sentence hanging over her so it's hard to see a route into the Palace of Independence from that starting point. If Batka (who has been a pain in VVP's dick for decades over his flexible loyalty) has megged it then surely his replacement will be somebody more Russia adjacent who is likely to throw the full military might of Belarus into the SMO like Kochanova or Golovchenko.
    I just discovered that he's about fifteen years younger than I assumed he was. He's 68. Tough paper round etc.

    He also had a world-beating combover back in the day.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,368
    Leon said:

    1st June. 12C at noon. Wasn’t this meant to be a week of unbroken sun? UGH

    Meanwhile, on the Costa del Irwell:



    Shorts and t-shirts weather, and my new solar panels are producing 20kwh a day.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171
    Cyclefree said:

    I have been in near constant pain in my right leg since before Easter which has sometimes caused me complete immobility. Driving has been difficult. Physio only provided temporary alleviation. I was referred for an X-ray which finally happened last week.

    This morning I have tried contacting my surgery to get an appointment with the GP to find out the results. After 35 minutes on the phone I finally get through. X-results still not back but I have a GP appointment in mid-June. So I just have to pray that the results will be back by then so that I can get an idea of what the problem is and, maybe, even start the process of waiting to get treatment.

    Stoicism and/or opiate addiction. That seems the choice on offer from the NHS these days.

    Meanwhile I have decided to tackle some brutal overgrown brambles in the back garden, with just my arms, gloves and secateurs. Plus a lot of sweat - it is pretty hot here. It's like doing battle with Edward Scissorhands. Heist knows how I go about getting the roots out though the mattock my other half gave me as a birthday present (I married the last romantic in Cumbria) may help.

    I really need a strong gardener to assist. You'd have thought in such an area there would be plenty of gardening companies to assist - from some simple design ideas to doing the harder jobs & general maintenance etc.,. But no. It is an obvious gap in the market and should I get through my current vale of tears I may look into setting one up. There are lots of keen gardeners around but also a lot of older folks so you'd have thought there'd be the need.

    Meanwhile here's something I made earlier.




    I am so sorry to hear this, and these problems with health provision are all too common these days, I’ve been having sporadic hand pain, had a hospital X-ray, had a GP appointment but X-ray results were missing, and I gave up trying to get another GP appointment to follow up (and am fairly certain that what the X-ray was looking for wasn’t the problem)!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    1st June. 12C at noon. Wasn’t this meant to be a week of unbroken sun? UGH

    Lucky you. Some of us have 41ºC at 3pm. Summer’s here, and not in a good way. Bring on October.
    Dubai in summer isnt a nice place without air conditioning
    Having recently experienced 43C in Bangkok (with high humidity - making it feel like 53C) then I would say it’s not nice even WITH aircon. You are literally trapped indoors all the time

    Even at night it’s too hot and sticky. Horrid
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,368
    Cyclefree said:

    I have been in near constant pain in my right leg since before Easter which has sometimes caused me complete immobility. Driving has been difficult. Physio only provided temporary alleviation. I was referred for an X-ray which finally happened last week.

    This morning I have tried contacting my surgery to get an appointment with the GP to find out the results. After 35 minutes on the phone I finally get through. X-results still not back but I have a GP appointment in mid-June. So I just have to pray that the results will be back by then so that I can get an idea of what the problem is and, maybe, even start the process of waiting to get treatment.

    Stoicism and/or opiate addiction. That seems the choice on offer from the NHS these days.

    Meanwhile I have decided to tackle some brutal overgrown brambles in the back garden, with just my arms, gloves and secateurs. Plus a lot of sweat - it is pretty hot here. It's like doing battle with Edward Scissorhands. Heist knows how I go about getting the roots out though the mattock my other half gave me as a birthday present (I married the last romantic in Cumbria) may help.

    I really need a strong gardener to assist. You'd have thought in such an area there would be plenty of gardening companies to assist - from some simple design ideas to doing the harder jobs & general maintenance etc.,. But no. It is an obvious gap in the market and should I get through my current vale of tears I may look into setting one up. There are lots of keen gardeners around but also a lot of older folks so you'd have thought there'd be the need.

    Meanwhile here's something I made earlier.




    Lovely pics.

    I was in a similar situation 15 months ago. Went private and all sorted within 6 weeks (plus four weeks recovery time). I'd rather not be paying out at all, but to be honest £6k is well worth it for the amount of pain it saved me - I'd basically have spent a year of my life unable to walk more than half a mile. I'm not saying my issue would be the same as yours, but it's worth a consultation, at least? Best of luck with it, in any case.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,326
    edited June 2023
    I see we are doing Succession and Bab5. As enough has leaked onto YouTube for me to pick up the gist of the former, and note the fine fan fiction on the latter, I may be able to comment.
    • The fourth series resolved the series by progressively making the obvious obvious: the three were idiots. Roman wasn't a tormented soul, he was a middle-aged perv. Shiv couldn't place a pen on a desk without drama. Kendall can't really do anything. Anything.
    • I don't know if it's distinct to this series or modern technique, but towards the end the dialogue was just a series of ums, ahs, whats, ers, and cussing. Expressive but annoying.
    • Because of Sarah Snook's pregnancy IRL, the decision to put her in a poloneck, and her tendancy to do a wide grimace to indicate incredulity or disdain, her chin was in danger of disappearing into her polo at several points.
    • Gerri is now worth 100s of millions. :)
    • The Caroline actress (Harriet Walter) was expectedly good. The Kerry actress (Zoë Winters) was unexpectedly good
    • Connor - the only offspring who was foolish rather than bad - came out best. An ambassadorship and a wife who is sincerely loyal to him.
    • Tom from Spooks played Tom from Succession. Does he only play Toms?
    • In the scene in the karaoke place where Logan pointed out that they were not serious people, the Logan actor (Hannibal Lecter) was really good, and looked really ill... :(
    So there y'go. A drama for the 2020s involving four nepo babies arguing for four years whilst nothing got done. :)
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,331
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    I'd wager the latter.
    Anyways. Be more significant if it is Lukashenko. Lukashenka would be his wife or daughter.
    (No idea if he has either. But it's vital to start the month as pedantically as you mean to go on).
    The 'Lukashenko' surname, like most -o surnames, has neutral grammatical gender and therefore does not change when used by female. Hence AGL's unlucky Mrs (imagine being fucking drilled by that) known as Галина Родионовна Лукашенко in Russian - which is all we care about. Other examples are Ludmilla Radchenko (actress, model, whatever) and Natasha Stefanenko (also actress, model, whatever).

    In an educated Moscow accent, which everybody should strive to affect, the terminal 'o' is sounded as 'a' which adds to the confusion.
    How the hell did you learn Russian? I’ve been trying to learn it for a decade, and failed miserably. Do you just have to live somewhere that speaks it for a few years, and avoid all the youngsters who see you as a way to practice the English skills that will get them out of their own hellhole?
    Recently I heard a podcast with an American military bod who was put forward for language training. They gave the recruits an invented language, gave them a short time to learn a little of it, and then tested them. The language was an invented one so that no-one had any chance of knowing it - unlike (say) Spanish.

    It showed a candidate's ability to learn a language. This guy said he hated languages at school, but he came top in that class and loved learning Russian.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Cyclefree said:

    I have been in near constant pain in my right leg since before Easter which has sometimes caused me complete immobility. Driving has been difficult. Physio only provided temporary alleviation. I was referred for an X-ray which finally happened last week.

    This morning I have tried contacting my surgery to get an appointment with the GP to find out the results. After 35 minutes on the phone I finally get through. X-results still not back but I have a GP appointment in mid-June. So I just have to pray that the results will be back by then so that I can get an idea of what the problem is and, maybe, even start the process of waiting to get treatment.

    Stoicism and/or opiate addiction. That seems the choice on offer from the NHS these days.

    Meanwhile I have decided to tackle some brutal overgrown brambles in the back garden, with just my arms, gloves and secateurs. Plus a lot of sweat - it is pretty hot here. It's like doing battle with Edward Scissorhands. Heist knows how I go about getting the roots out though the mattock my other half gave me as a birthday present (I married the last romantic in Cumbria) may help.

    I really need a strong gardener to assist. You'd have thought in such an area there would be plenty of gardening companies to assist - from some simple design ideas to doing the harder jobs & general maintenance etc.,. But no. It is an obvious gap in the market and should I get through my current vale of tears I may look into setting one up. There are lots of keen gardeners around but also a lot of older folks so you'd have thought there'd be the need.

    Meanwhile here's something I made earlier.




    I give this advice to everyone: but consider a flight to Bangkok and then check yourself in to Bumrungrad hospital

    Fantastic first class private care done instantly. At a fifth the price it would cost in the UK
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736
    Cyclefree said:

    I have been in near constant pain in my right leg since before Easter which has sometimes caused me complete immobility. Driving has been difficult. Physio only provided temporary alleviation. I was referred for an X-ray which finally happened last week.

    This morning I have tried contacting my surgery to get an appointment with the GP to find out the results. After 35 minutes on the phone I finally get through. X-results still not back but I have a GP appointment in mid-June. So I just have to pray that the results will be back by then so that I can get an idea of what the problem is and, maybe, even start the process of waiting to get treatment.

    Stoicism and/or opiate addiction. That seems the choice on offer from the NHS these days.

    Meanwhile I have decided to tackle some brutal overgrown brambles in the back garden, with just my arms, gloves and secateurs. Plus a lot of sweat - it is pretty hot here. It's like doing battle with Edward Scissorhands. Heist knows how I go about getting the roots out though the mattock my other half gave me as a birthday present (I married the last romantic in Cumbria) may help.

    I really need a strong gardener to assist. You'd have thought in such an area there would be plenty of gardening companies to assist - from some simple design ideas to doing the harder jobs & general maintenance etc.,. But no. It is an obvious gap in the market and should I get through my current vale of tears I may look into setting one up. There are lots of keen gardeners around but also a lot of older folks so you'd have thought there'd be the need.

    Meanwhile here's something I made earlier.

    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/ke/mzdi6cgz5cu9.jpeg" alt="" />
    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/oc/zpcxrz5vd9g0.jpeg" alt="" />
    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/72/hutl9gqjg6e4.jpeg" alt="" />

    First of all, lovely bush.

    Has anyone who loves the NHS ever lived in another country? It’s totally bonkers to have to wait months for scans and results, and must be costing the country billions in time off work.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    I'd wager the latter.
    Anyways. Be more significant if it is Lukashenko. Lukashenka would be his wife or daughter.
    (No idea if he has either. But it's vital to start the month as pedantically as you mean to go on).
    The 'Lukashenko' surname, like most -o surnames, has neutral grammatical gender and therefore does not change when used by female. Hence AGL's unlucky Mrs (imagine being fucking drilled by that) known as Галина Родионовна Лукашенко in Russian - which is all we care about. Other examples are Ludmilla Radchenko (actress, model, whatever) and Natasha Stefanenko (also actress, model, whatever).

    In an educated Moscow accent, which everybody should strive to affect, the terminal 'o' is sounded as 'a' which adds to the confusion.
    How the hell did you learn Russian? I’ve been trying to learn it for a decade, and failed miserably. Do you just have to live somewhere that speaks it for a few years, and avoid all the youngsters who see you as a way to practice the English skills that will get them out of their own hellhole?
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    I'd wager the latter.
    Anyways. Be more significant if it is Lukashenko. Lukashenka would be his wife or daughter.
    (No idea if he has either. But it's vital to start the month as pedantically as you mean to go on).
    The 'Lukashenko' surname, like most -o surnames, has neutral grammatical gender and therefore does not change when used by female. Hence AGL's unlucky Mrs (imagine being fucking drilled by that) known as Галина Родионовна Лукашенко in Russian - which is all we care about. Other examples are Ludmilla Radchenko (actress, model, whatever) and Natasha Stefanenko (also actress, model, whatever).

    In an educated Moscow accent, which everybody should strive to affect, the terminal 'o' is sounded as 'a' which adds to the confusion.
    How the hell did you learn Russian? I’ve been trying to learn it for a decade, and failed miserably. Do you just have to live somewhere that speaks it for a few years, and avoid all the youngsters who see you as a way to practice the English skills that will get them out of their own hellhole?
    I did Russian A-Level then went on to do the MoD 'Short Course' in Russian while I was in the Navy which helped out. After I emerged from The Shed Year (pb.com passim) I qualified as TEFL teacher and mooched around Ukraine/Belarus/Russia for a while. Then I met Mrs DA and we moved to Moscow for 9 years. While I was there I got very good and qualified as a teacher of Russian as a Foreign Language from Moscow State University. All my fellow students thought I was MI6.

    Native English speakers find it hard in my experience as Russia has a LOT of grammar compared to English. Most British people have no idea of the underlying grammatical concepts in their own language and therefore struggle to apply them in a consistent and correct manner in Russian.

    I have taught hundreds of people to speak Russian and very, very few get good (say B2 level) without extensive periods of immersion.

    I've only ever met one native English speaker (an American woman, possibly CIA) who can speak Russian at a proficiency that is indistinguishable from a native. On my best day I can be confused for a Pole or Czech who has been educated in Russia.
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,971
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    1st June. 12C at noon. Wasn’t this meant to be a week of unbroken sun? UGH

    Meanwhile, on the Costa del Irwell:



    Shorts and t-shirts weather, and my new solar panels are producing 20kwh a day.
    I am about 20 miles east of Manchester and it's cloudy and 11 degrees C.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Cyclefree said:

    I have been in near constant pain in my right leg since before Easter which has sometimes caused me complete immobility. Driving has been difficult. Physio only provided temporary alleviation. I was referred for an X-ray which finally happened last week.

    This morning I have tried contacting my surgery to get an appointment with the GP to find out the results. After 35 minutes on the phone I finally get through. X-results still not back but I have a GP appointment in mid-June. So I just have to pray that the results will be back by then so that I can get an idea of what the problem is and, maybe, even start the process of waiting to get treatment.

    Stoicism and/or opiate addiction. That seems the choice on offer from the NHS these days.

    Meanwhile I have decided to tackle some brutal overgrown brambles in the back garden, with just my arms, gloves and secateurs. Plus a lot of sweat - it is pretty hot here. It's like doing battle with Edward Scissorhands. Heist knows how I go about getting the roots out though the mattock my other half gave me as a birthday present (I married the last romantic in Cumbria) may help.

    I really need a strong gardener to assist. You'd have thought in such an area there would be plenty of gardening companies to assist - from some simple design ideas to doing the harder jobs & general maintenance etc.,. But no. It is an obvious gap in the market and should I get through my current vale of tears I may look into setting one up. There are lots of keen gardeners around but also a lot of older folks so you'd have thought there'd be the need.

    Meanwhile here's something I made earlier.




    I've been very happy with the addition of some foxgloves into my borders lately. Good bit of vertical floral structure.
  • Options

    It is certainly true that, in general, a good proportion of 'Don't knows' tend to return to their previous voting pattern, and also that Con voters tend to feel a duty to turn out and vote. So I would tend to agree with Mike's view, although it is hard to calibrate to what extent we should expect a move from Don't Knows to Con as the election nears.

    My only doubt about this is that the 2019 Con voters included many people who were not traditionally Tory voters, and many of those are now in the Don't Know camp, as well as being in crucial 'Red Wall' seats. Will they behave in a way which we might expect from previous elections? They might well neither feel the duty to vote, nor the long-term loyalty to the Conservative brand, that we have come to expect from their disgruntled mid-term counterparts in previous elections.

    One has to recognise that, this far out, there is a lot of uncertainty about this, overlaid with economic uncertainty. At the moment I'm expecting a modest Labour majority, but with big error bars around that expectation.

    Is it possible to consider current don't knows against their 2017 or 2015 voting pattern? This might give an indication as to whether they are Cameron liberal conservatives who are put off by the current anti woke/immigration agenda or Brexit loving red wallers who are unconvinced by the current Conservative approach post Brexit?
  • Options

    It is certainly true that, in general, a good proportion of 'Don't knows' tend to return to their previous voting pattern, and also that Con voters tend to feel a duty to turn out and vote. So I would tend to agree with Mike's view, although it is hard to calibrate to what extent we should expect a move from Don't Knows to Con as the election nears.

    My only doubt about this is that the 2019 Con voters included many people who were not traditionally Tory voters, and many of those are now in the Don't Know camp, as well as being in crucial 'Red Wall' seats. Will they behave in a way which we might expect from previous elections? They might well neither feel the duty to vote, nor the long-term loyalty to the Conservative brand, that we have come to expect from their disgruntled mid-term counterparts in previous elections.

    One has to recognise that, this far out, there is a lot of uncertainty about this, overlaid with economic uncertainty. At the moment I'm expecting a modest Labour majority, but with big error bars around that expectation.

    Is it possible to consider current don't knows against their 2017 or 2015 voting pattern? This might give an indication as to whether they are Cameron liberal conservatives who are put off by the current anti woke/immigration agenda or Brexit loving red wallers who are unconvinced by the current Conservative approach post Brexit?
    YouGov could potentially provide that information given that they have the oldest panel, whilst it would be difficult for the newcommers.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    Not learning Russian is woke.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    Yes if Rishi squeezes DKs and wins back some voters lost to RefUK given he generally polls better v Starmer as preferred PM than the Tories do against Labour on headline voting intention it could still be closer
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736
    Dura_Ace said:

    Not learning Russian is woke.

    Da.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    viewcode said:

    I see we are doing Succession and Bab5. As enough has leaked onto YouTube for me to pick up the gist of the former, and note the fine fan fiction on the latter, I may be able to comment.

    • The fourth series resolved the series by progressively making the obvious obvious: the three were idiots. Roman wasn't a tormented soul, he was a middle-aged perv. Shiv couldn't place a pen on a desk without drama. Kendall can't really do anything. Anything.
    • I don't know if it's distinct to this series or modern technique, but towards the end the dialogue was just a series of ums, ahs, whats, ers, and cussing. Expressive but annoying.
    • Because of Sarah Snook's pregnancy IRL, the decision to put her in a poloneck, and her tendancy to do a wide grimace to indicate incredulity or disdain, her chin was in danger of disappearing into her polo at several points.
    • Gerri is now worth 100s of millions. :)
    • The Caroline actress (Harriet Walter) was expectedly good. The Kerry actress (Zoë Winters) was unexpectedly good
    • Connor - the only offspring who was foolish rather than bad - came out best. An ambassadorship and a wife who is sincerely loyal to him.
    • Tom from Spooks played Tom from Succession. Does he only play Toms?
    • In the scene in the karaoke place where Logan pointed out that they were not serious people, the Logan actor (Hannibal Lecter) was really good, and looked really ill... :(
    So there y'go. A drama for the 2020s involving four nepo babies arguing for four years whilst nothing got done. :)
    Yes - Zoe Winters was excellent.

    I'd add that Connor seemed pretty selflish and unpleasant too - just in a smaller, nuttier way than the others.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502

    It is certainly true that, in general, a good proportion of 'Don't knows' tend to return to their previous voting pattern, and also that Con voters tend to feel a duty to turn out and vote. So I would tend to agree with Mike's view, although it is hard to calibrate to what extent we should expect a move from Don't Knows to Con as the election nears.

    My only doubt about this is that the 2019 Con voters included many people who were not traditionally Tory voters, and many of those are now in the Don't Know camp, as well as being in crucial 'Red Wall' seats. Will they behave in a way which we might expect from previous elections? They might well neither feel the duty to vote, nor the long-term loyalty to the Conservative brand, that we have come to expect from their disgruntled mid-term counterparts in previous elections.

    One has to recognise that, this far out, there is a lot of uncertainty about this, overlaid with economic uncertainty. At the moment I'm expecting a modest Labour majority, but with big error bars around that expectation.

    Is it possible to consider current don't knows against their 2017 or 2015 voting pattern? This might give an indication as to whether they are Cameron liberal conservatives who are put off by the current anti woke/immigration agenda or Brexit loving red wallers who are unconvinced by the current Conservative approach post Brexit?
    Based on the latest Yougov, 19% of Leavers are DK but only 13% of Remainers.

    21% of 2019 Conservative voters are DK compared to just 7% of 2019 Labour voters

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ilyj0v7ubm/TheTimes_VI_230526_W.pdf

  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    edited June 2023
    Cookie said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have been in near constant pain in my right leg since before Easter which has sometimes caused me complete immobility. Driving has been difficult. Physio only provided temporary alleviation. I was referred for an X-ray which finally happened last week.

    This morning I have tried contacting my surgery to get an appointment with the GP to find out the results. After 35 minutes on the phone I finally get through. X-results still not back but I have a GP appointment in mid-June. So I just have to pray that the results will be back by then so that I can get an idea of what the problem is and, maybe, even start the process of waiting to get treatment.

    Stoicism and/or opiate addiction. That seems the choice on offer from the NHS these days.

    Meanwhile I have decided to tackle some brutal overgrown brambles in the back garden, with just my arms, gloves and secateurs. Plus a lot of sweat - it is pretty hot here. It's like doing battle with Edward Scissorhands. Heist knows how I go about getting the roots out though the mattock my other half gave me as a birthday present (I married the last romantic in Cumbria) may help.

    I really need a strong gardener to assist. You'd have thought in such an area there would be plenty of gardening companies to assist - from some simple design ideas to doing the harder jobs & general maintenance etc.,. But no. It is an obvious gap in the market and should I get through my current vale of tears I may look into setting one up. There are lots of keen gardeners around but also a lot of older folks so you'd have thought there'd be the need.

    Meanwhile here's something I made earlier.




    Lovely pics.

    I was in a similar situation 15 months ago. Went private and all sorted within 6 weeks (plus four weeks recovery time). I'd rather not be paying out at all, but to be honest £6k is well worth it for the amount of pain it saved me - I'd basically have spent a year of my life unable to walk more than half a mile. I'm not saying my issue would be the same as yours, but it's worth a consultation, at least? Best of luck with it, in any case.
    I need a GP referral for private treatment (I have private health insurance) so will take that option (or maybe even the Bangkok one, if all else fails). But I don't even know what I have yet, which is what is infuriating.

    For those interested the plants are Gertrude Jekyll roses (prolific flowerers with a great scent), foxgloves, geum (incredibly hardy and long flowering), clematis and peonies, plus a spring flowering cherry tree. The front garden is magnificent. It is the back garden with its large craggy outcrop which is a challenge .....
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    2/2


    In the US the debate is catastrophically polarised - Democrats fully in the "Affirmative Care" camp (where "the science is settled" FFS - anyone who writes that doesn't understand science) and the GOP who are pursuing a "stop it all" model. Both are wrong, although I think the GOP is doing less damage.

    In the UK its been overwhelmingly women making the running - from across politics - but frequently left wing. The Tories sporadically venture into it (Badenoch is sound, Mordaunt not) and Labour are hopelessly tongue tied. Some of them have worked out that women don't have penises, others can't bring themselves to say so.

    The victims?

    Young (probably gay) kids with other mental health problems who have been sterilised and maimed for life, unnecessarily.

    Women sports competitors who have been cheated out of titles, winnings and earnings by men who think they are women. In some cases they've been injured by them too.

    Medics, who have been hounded out of jobs for saying "you can't change sex".

    Trans people - who wanted to get on with their lives but been drawn into a toxic debate.

    But that's where "no debate" will get you.

    If you haven't seen it

    https://www.channel4.com/programmes/gender-wars/on-demand/74736-001

    Presents the story so far going into the experience of Kathleen Stock, but doesn't touch the medical issues.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Not learning Russian is woke.

    Da.
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Not learning Russian is woke.

    Da.
    My Mum tried to learn Russian, but only really ever remembered how to say one thing: Ленин любил кошек.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    edited June 2023
    Ghedebrav said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have been in near constant pain in my right leg since before Easter which has sometimes caused me complete immobility. Driving has been difficult. Physio only provided temporary alleviation. I was referred for an X-ray which finally happened last week.

    This morning I have tried contacting my surgery to get an appointment with the GP to find out the results. After 35 minutes on the phone I finally get through. X-results still not back but I have a GP appointment in mid-June. So I just have to pray that the results will be back by then so that I can get an idea of what the problem is and, maybe, even start the process of waiting to get treatment.

    Stoicism and/or opiate addiction. That seems the choice on offer from the NHS these days.

    Meanwhile I have decided to tackle some brutal overgrown brambles in the back garden, with just my arms, gloves and secateurs. Plus a lot of sweat - it is pretty hot here. It's like doing battle with Edward Scissorhands. Heist knows how I go about getting the roots out though the mattock my other half gave me as a birthday present (I married the last romantic in Cumbria) may help.

    I really need a strong gardener to assist. You'd have thought in such an area there would be plenty of gardening companies to assist - from some simple design ideas to doing the harder jobs & general maintenance etc.,. But no. It is an obvious gap in the market and should I get through my current vale of tears I may look into setting one up. There are lots of keen gardeners around but also a lot of older folks so you'd have thought there'd be the need.

    Meanwhile here's something I made earlier.




    I've been very happy with the addition of some foxgloves into my borders lately. Good bit of vertical floral structure.
    Verbena bonariensis is also good. Especially if it is windy as it can be here.


  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,736

    2/2


    In the US the debate is catastrophically polarised - Democrats fully in the "Affirmative Care" camp (where "the science is settled" FFS - anyone who writes that doesn't understand science) and the GOP who are pursuing a "stop it all" model. Both are wrong, although I think the GOP is doing less damage.

    In the UK its been overwhelmingly women making the running - from across politics - but frequently left wing. The Tories sporadically venture into it (Badenoch is sound, Mordaunt not) and Labour are hopelessly tongue tied. Some of them have worked out that women don't have penises, others can't bring themselves to say so.

    The victims?

    Young (probably gay) kids with other mental health problems who have been sterilised and maimed for life, unnecessarily.

    Women sports competitors who have been cheated out of titles, winnings and earnings by men who think they are women. In some cases they've been injured by them too.

    Medics, who have been hounded out of jobs for saying "you can't change sex".

    Trans people - who wanted to get on with their lives but been drawn into a toxic debate.

    But that's where "no debate" will get you.

    If you haven't seen it

    https://www.channel4.com/programmes/gender-wars/on-demand/74736-001

    Presents the story so far going into the experience of Kathleen Stock, but doesn't touch the medical issues.

    Certainly in the US, the date the trans stuff started was the day the the Supreme Court ruled on gay marriage in 2015.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obergefell_v._Hodges
    The trans stuff was merely what all of the activists moved on to.
  • Options
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    I'd wager the latter.
    Anyways. Be more significant if it is Lukashenko. Lukashenka would be his wife or daughter.
    (No idea if he has either. But it's vital to start the month as pedantically as you mean to go on).
    The 'Lukashenko' surname, like most -o surnames, has neutral grammatical gender and therefore does not change when used by female. Hence AGL's unlucky Mrs (imagine being fucking drilled by that) known as Галина Родионовна Лукашенко in Russian - which is all we care about. Other examples are Ludmilla Radchenko (actress, model, whatever) and Natasha Stefanenko (also actress, model, whatever).

    In an educated Moscow accent, which everybody should strive to affect, the terminal 'o' is sounded as 'a' which adds to the confusion.
    How the hell did you learn Russian? I’ve been trying to learn it for a decade, and failed miserably. Do you just have to live somewhere that speaks it for a few years, and avoid all the youngsters who see you as a way to practice the English skills that will get them out of their own hellhole?
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    I'd wager the latter.
    Anyways. Be more significant if it is Lukashenko. Lukashenka would be his wife or daughter.
    (No idea if he has either. But it's vital to start the month as pedantically as you mean to go on).
    The 'Lukashenko' surname, like most -o surnames, has neutral grammatical gender and therefore does not change when used by female. Hence AGL's unlucky Mrs (imagine being fucking drilled by that) known as Галина Родионовна Лукашенко in Russian - which is all we care about. Other examples are Ludmilla Radchenko (actress, model, whatever) and Natasha Stefanenko (also actress, model, whatever).

    In an educated Moscow accent, which everybody should strive to affect, the terminal 'o' is sounded as 'a' which adds to the confusion.
    How the hell did you learn Russian? I’ve been trying to learn it for a decade, and failed miserably. Do you just have to live somewhere that speaks it for a few years, and avoid all the youngsters who see you as a way to practice the English skills that will get them out of their own hellhole?
    I did Russian A-Level then went on to do the MoD 'Short Course' in Russian while I was in the Navy which helped out. After I emerged from The Shed Year (pb.com passim) I qualified as TEFL teacher and mooched around Ukraine/Belarus/Russia for a while. Then I met Mrs DA and we moved to Moscow for 9 years. While I was there I got very good and qualified as a teacher of Russian as a Foreign Language from Moscow State University. All my fellow students thought I was MI6.

    Native English speakers find it hard in my experience as Russia has a LOT of grammar compared to English. Most British people have no idea of the underlying grammatical concepts in their own language and therefore struggle to apply them in a consistent and correct manner in Russian.

    I have taught hundreds of people to speak Russian and very, very few get good (say B2 level) without extensive periods of immersion.

    I've only ever met one native English speaker (an American woman, possibly CIA) who can speak Russian at a proficiency that is indistinguishable from a native. On my best day I can be confused for a Pole or Czech who has been educated in Russia.
    I lived in Germany for 10 years and so learned to speak German reasonably proficiently, but I still tended to be confused for a Dutchman whenever I opened my mouth (we lived quite close to the Dutch border).
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Unscheduled flight arrivals in Miensk. Rumours that Lukashenka has died.

    What happens next there, a takeover of the western-looking moderates, or Putin getting a placeman in charge? Huge implications for Ukraine.
    I'd wager the latter.
    Anyways. Be more significant if it is Lukashenko. Lukashenka would be his wife or daughter.
    (No idea if he has either. But it's vital to start the month as pedantically as you mean to go on).
    The 'Lukashenko' surname, like most -o surnames, has neutral grammatical gender and therefore does not change when used by female. Hence AGL's unlucky Mrs (imagine being fucking drilled by that) known as Галина Родионовна Лукашенко in Russian - which is all we care about. Other examples are Ludmilla Radchenko (actress, model, whatever) and Natasha Stefanenko (also actress, model, whatever).

    In an educated Moscow accent, which everybody should strive to affect, the terminal 'o' is sounded as 'a' which adds to the confusion.
    How the hell did you learn Russian? I’ve been trying to learn it for a decade, and failed miserably. Do you just have to live somewhere that speaks it for a few years, and avoid all the youngsters who see you as a way to practice the English skills that will get them out of their own hellhole?
    Recently I heard a podcast with an American military bod who was put forward for language training. They gave the recruits an invented language, gave them a short time to learn a little of it, and then tested them. The language was an invented one so that no-one had any chance of knowing it - unlike (say) Spanish.

    It showed a candidate's ability to learn a language. This guy said he hated languages at school, but he came top in that class and loved learning Russian.
    The British forces have recently and finally started doing language proficiency pay like the Americans and Australians. It can be quite a lot of money. Entirely consistent with the MoD's longstanding strategy of being excellently prepared for the last war but one Arabic attracts the highest premium at 11 grand/year.

    The British forces have zero L3+ Ukrainian speakers and are forced to rely on contracted translators who are probably 50% GRU agents.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171

    2/2


    In the US the debate is catastrophically polarised - Democrats fully in the "Affirmative Care" camp (where "the science is settled" FFS - anyone who writes that doesn't understand science) and the GOP who are pursuing a "stop it all" model. Both are wrong, although I think the GOP is doing less damage.

    In the UK its been overwhelmingly women making the running - from across politics - but frequently left wing. The Tories sporadically venture into it (Badenoch is sound, Mordaunt not) and Labour are hopelessly tongue tied. Some of them have worked out that women don't have penises, others can't bring themselves to say so.

    The victims?

    Young (probably gay) kids with other mental health problems who have been sterilised and maimed for life, unnecessarily.

    Women sports competitors who have been cheated out of titles, winnings and earnings by men who think they are women. In some cases they've been injured by them too.

    Medics, who have been hounded out of jobs for saying "you can't change sex".

    Trans people - who wanted to get on with their lives but been drawn into a toxic debate.

    But that's where "no debate" will get you.

    If you haven't seen it

    https://www.channel4.com/programmes/gender-wars/on-demand/74736-001

    Presents the story so far going into the experience of Kathleen Stock, but doesn't touch the medical issues.

    The GOP have moved on to banning drag acts, trying to roll back LGB rights and conspiracy theories about Michelle Obama being a man. I think they’re doing far more damage.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 12,368

    FPT

    Leon said:


    Just a brief glance at the trans debate on Twitter shows that it has lost none of its ugliness and venom. What a horrible poisonous mess I’m still bemused how we ended up here, when ten years ago trans people were generally accepted and everyone seemed to rub along What happened? Who did this? Why?

    Several things have happened - quite a few of which were going on “under the radar” and have only recently become apparent.

    With the arrival of Gay Marriage the LGB Charity Stonewall had run out of road - what LGB rights were left to secure? So they added QT+ and started advocating for Trans people. Nothing wrong with that. Except some LGB people don't think it's a good fit between LGB (who people are attracted to) and QT+ (who people think they are). Among the QT+ tribe are trans people, who have gender dysphoria, but also "AGPs" - heterosexual men who are sexually aroused by themselves in women's clothes. These men in particular are seen as a threat to women's safety by women's groups.

    Then Stonewall started briefing employers and organisations on the Equality Law as they thought it should be, not as it actually was. They also adopted a policy of "No Debate" when it came to Trans rights, so were not only deaf to criticism, but actively hostile towards it. This ended up in the courts when employers sacked people based on "Stonewall law" and found it did not stand up. These people were predominantly women, often left wing & frequently lesbian. So much for Tory "culture war"!

    Meanwhile in Scotland, safe in the progressive echo chamber the SNP at the behest of their Green partners pushed through Gender Recognition Reform - which would turn getting a gender recognition certificate into a formality - again discussion or debate was dismissed as "transphobia". When this was finally exposed to full public discussion and the case of male rapists discovering they had "Prison onset gender dysphoria - can I be housed with women?" the politicians were I suspect grateful for Westminster blocking it because they could return to safer ground "disrespecting Scotland" than a policy unpopular with voters.

    Back in England the explosion in cases of "gender dysphoria" among teen girls (previously it had mainly been pre-pubescent children and middle aged men) at the Tavistock led to an investigation under a leading paediatrician - Dr Cass - which started blowing holes in the assertions of the "Affirmative Care" model - widely (and, it must be said, profitably) promoted in the USA in particular. The ripples from the NHS review are spreading across the world with Australia wondering whether it should backtrack, and some states in the US now banning so-called "affirmative care". 1/2
    Good summary.

    One of the things which boils my piss about all this is that this is described as a Tory culture war. The right have done virtually nothing here apart from almost silently yearn for saner days.
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