Categories
This would be great for the Tories but for GE2019 CON don’t knows – politicalbetting.com
This would be great for the Tories but for GE2019 CON don’t knows – politicalbetting.com
Our new poll-of-polls shows #Labour consolidating its lead over the #Conservatives, now at 16pc (up from 15pc last month). Still a landslide for Labour on these figures. Details at: https://t.co/NRkt2WUv6J pic.twitter.com/zL093zxQmM
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
No one is ever going to do that again...
Sigh.
For those who don't know it - it's a Babylon 5 episode about a society that built war machines to destroy all "impure" and "alien" influences. They did a very good job - destroyed *everything*. A million years later on a dead world, some humans dig up some technology....
"I made a case suboptimally on Twitter."
That cop is full of it. Causing someone anxiety isn't against the law. S127(2) of the Act says this:
"A person is guilty of an offence if, for the purpose of causing annoyance, inconvenience or needless anxiety to another, he—
(a)sends by means of a public electronic communications network, a message that he knows to be false,
(b)causes such a message to be sent; or
(c)persistently makes use of a public electronic communications network."
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/21/section/127
Could I get the police to arrest themselves?
I really enjoyed the Babylon 5 episodes that I watched but never really got into it. What is the best way to binge-watch from the start, if I ever find the time?
We are still in a golden age of TV
I noticed, after some investigating, that the main writers on the series are Brits. Well done them. Relatedly I also noticed, in the final episode, that the Roy children - in times of extremely high emotion - lapse into British accents. At one point they are clearly doing it to mimic their British mother, but later it just seems to be a thing they do
I’ve noticed this elsewhere in American life, recently. UK accents and slang sneaking in. Peculiar
In 2010 they were polling between 32 and 39% during the campaign, and 35-37% towards the end with a 4-9% lead, and ended up actually getting 36% vs Labour's 29%, a 7% lead. So the polls were pretty much bang on.
But there's a Test match on, the Russians are about to lose Belgorod, and I've work to do, so I regret I don't have time.
The problem is that without watching it all, you miss the build up of the overall arc story line. Which really ends at the end of Season 4. Season 5 is a bit like the Scouring of the Shire.
And here is the problem again with @leon. When he loses an argument he resorts to insults about someone's intelligence. Why he does this I don't know as it is so apparent.
He also jumped to a huge assumption about the 'experts' I referred to without any knowledge as to who they actually were. I mean he has no clue as I didn't say. I have to admit I can't remember myself, but was just listening to interviews and discussions on Radio 4 over the last few days and they all said they didn't know.
This is why people laugh at your posts Leon. They may be well written, but you jump to all sorts of conclusions and come out with completely mad ideas and panic like a 5 year old, so that when you do come out with something sane people still think you are nuts.
There is nothing wrong with dramas that end with deaths or weddings, they make naturally good endings. But it’s nice to see something different
My only complaint was the entire thing being too short. Just four seasons. Couldn’t we have had one more? But perhaps that was a genius decision too. Leave the audience slightly hungry
Oh, and a mention of Farscape as well. It's surprising how well a mixture of live-action and puppets works.
Both these series have great plot arcs. Unlike, say, Star Trek.
If the Tories get in again then this country has completely lost its mind .
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1664201022003204096
Hahahaha
I think you will find every PB poster (except perhaps Heathener) will agree with that tag line Mike.
Question is to what degree. Because absolutely no one thinks it will be 157 seats v 420. And the thing you keep flagging up, the Tory Don’t Know Pool is at the “we are going to need a bigger pool” stage. However it is agreed by all of us (?) 1997 was built upon just 15% 1992 Tory’s switching to Labour plus a lot of 1992 Tory abstentions plus a lot of get the Tories put tactical voting.
So we are all agreed, except perhaps one PB poster, the Labour figure is inflated by the Tory d/k. But if this is proved true, so not 420 seats just 70 less at 350 - 350 is also sounds an unbelievable more seats going from Rishi to Starmer than Blair managed.
Do we have any evidence of Tory d/k from 1996? Because we know 1997 is built upon not swingback late in like 1992, 5 years later don’t knows became didn’t votes.
And another reason we should suspend disbelief, Blair started on 70 more seats than Starmer, and this suggests a lot more easy to pick fruit for Starmer before it’s gets harder? So starting further back with lots more easy to pick fruit than Blair, why shouldn’t Starmer eclipse the number of seats Blair won?
He had the best relationship with Logan and never wanted to run the company.
No one won. Which is only right in that kind of cut throat drama
It was clear they were experts in the field and not some prat off the street called Leon because it was a serious programme, but I wasn't sitting there with a pencil and paper noting down who they were for a future discussion with you.
For someone who claims to be more intelligent than all of us you have a very limited grasp of basis logic.
In Valen’s name.
There are about 770 crew in the training system at the moment Of these about 430 are "holding" (that is doing made up ground jobs) due to lack of, well, everything in the training system. This total mismanagement has a far greater effect on the RAF's combat power than the demographic conditioning of the intake. Which is, in itself, a worthy endeavour.
I look forward to some middle aged white men getting agitated over that.
Anyways. Be more significant if it is Lukashenko. Lukashenka would be his wife or daughter.
(No idea if he has either. But it's vital to start the month as pedantically as you mean to go on).
Their seat total was seen as a disappointment.
Roman and Shiv you can see moving on to different things. Connor will enjoy his ambassadorship for the six months it lasts, then he'll go back to his ranch and continue his hairbrained political career. Kendall is the truly tragic figure, as he says himself: there is nothing else he can really do.
Why is that may I ask? Is that the masculine form? Or don't they have that?
I wonder if there’s a small window of opportunity to blockade the border between Belarus and Russia, which makes Putin’s job an awful lot harder.
https://eng.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-names-key-security-threats-to-cis-159291-2023/
The rumour may be false.
"(H)e met with participants of the 52nd meeting of the CIS Council of Heads of Security Agencies and Special Services in Minsk on 1 June, BelTA has learned."
Also there is this:
https://eng.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-west-is-preparing-coup-dtat-in-belarus-159294-2023/
"MINSK, 1 June (BelTA) – The West is masterminding a violent scenario to overthrow the government in Belarus, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko said."
He was excellently drawn. That persistent hint of creepiness. The blood!
In the end Kendall was the most likeable character when he started as one of the most dislikeable. Great arc
And they were misogynistic, snobbish, aggressive, nasty, maybe even a little bit racist
And it was first class. Unwoke art is better art
In an educated Moscow accent, which everybody should strive to affect, the terminal 'o' is sounded as 'a' which adds to the confusion.
This morning I have tried contacting my surgery to get an appointment with the GP to find out the results. After 35 minutes on the phone I finally get through. X-results still not back but I have a GP appointment in mid-June. So I just have to pray that the results will be back by then so that I can get an idea of what the problem is and, maybe, even start the process of waiting to get treatment.
Stoicism and/or opiate addiction. That seems the choice on offer from the NHS these days.
Meanwhile I have decided to tackle some brutal overgrown brambles in the back garden, with just my arms, gloves and secateurs. Plus a lot of sweat - it is pretty hot here. It's like doing battle with Edward Scissorhands. Heist knows how I go about getting the roots out though the mattock my other half gave me as a birthday present (I married the last romantic in Cumbria) may help.
I really need a strong gardener to assist. You'd have thought in such an area there would be plenty of gardening companies to assist - from some simple design ideas to doing the harder jobs & general maintenance etc.,. But no. It is an obvious gap in the market and should I get through my current vale of tears I may look into setting one up. There are lots of keen gardeners around but also a lot of older folks so you'd have thought there'd be the need.
Meanwhile here's something I made earlier.
My only doubt about this is that the 2019 Con voters included many people who were not traditionally Tory voters, and many of those are now in the Don't Know camp, as well as being in crucial 'Red Wall' seats. Will they behave in a way which we might expect from previous elections? They might well neither feel the duty to vote, nor the long-term loyalty to the Conservative brand, that we have come to expect from their disgruntled mid-term counterparts in previous elections.
One has to recognise that, this far out, there is a lot of uncertainty about this, overlaid with economic uncertainty. At the moment I'm expecting a modest Labour majority, but with big error bars around that expectation.
He also had a world-beating combover back in the day.
Shorts and t-shirts weather, and my new solar panels are producing 20kwh a day.
Even at night it’s too hot and sticky. Horrid
I was in a similar situation 15 months ago. Went private and all sorted within 6 weeks (plus four weeks recovery time). I'd rather not be paying out at all, but to be honest £6k is well worth it for the amount of pain it saved me - I'd basically have spent a year of my life unable to walk more than half a mile. I'm not saying my issue would be the same as yours, but it's worth a consultation, at least? Best of luck with it, in any case.
- The fourth series resolved the series by progressively making the obvious obvious: the three were idiots. Roman wasn't a tormented soul, he was a middle-aged perv. Shiv couldn't place a pen on a desk without drama. Kendall can't really do anything. Anything.
- I don't know if it's distinct to this series or modern technique, but towards the end the dialogue was just a series of ums, ahs, whats, ers, and cussing. Expressive but annoying.
- Because of Sarah Snook's pregnancy IRL, the decision to put her in a poloneck, and her tendancy to do a wide grimace to indicate incredulity or disdain, her chin was in danger of disappearing into her polo at several points.
- Gerri is now worth 100s of millions.
- The Caroline actress (Harriet Walter) was expectedly good. The Kerry actress (Zoë Winters) was unexpectedly good
- Connor - the only offspring who was foolish rather than bad - came out best. An ambassadorship and a wife who is sincerely loyal to him.
- Tom from Spooks played Tom from Succession. Does he only play Toms?
- In the scene in the karaoke place where Logan pointed out that they were not serious people, the Logan actor (Hannibal Lecter) was really good, and looked really ill...
So there y'go. A drama for the 2020s involving four nepo babies arguing for four years whilst nothing got done.It showed a candidate's ability to learn a language. This guy said he hated languages at school, but he came top in that class and loved learning Russian.
Fantastic first class private care done instantly. At a fifth the price it would cost in the UK
Has anyone who loves the NHS ever lived in another country? It’s totally bonkers to have to wait months for scans and results, and must be costing the country billions in time off work.
Native English speakers find it hard in my experience as Russia has a LOT of grammar compared to English. Most British people have no idea of the underlying grammatical concepts in their own language and therefore struggle to apply them in a consistent and correct manner in Russian.
I have taught hundreds of people to speak Russian and very, very few get good (say B2 level) without extensive periods of immersion.
I've only ever met one native English speaker (an American woman, possibly CIA) who can speak Russian at a proficiency that is indistinguishable from a native. On my best day I can be confused for a Pole or Czech who has been educated in Russia.
I'd add that Connor seemed pretty selflish and unpleasant too - just in a smaller, nuttier way than the others.
21% of 2019 Conservative voters are DK compared to just 7% of 2019 Labour voters
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ilyj0v7ubm/TheTimes_VI_230526_W.pdf
For those interested the plants are Gertrude Jekyll roses (prolific flowerers with a great scent), foxgloves, geum (incredibly hardy and long flowering), clematis and peonies, plus a spring flowering cherry tree. The front garden is magnificent. It is the back garden with its large craggy outcrop which is a challenge .....
With the arrival of Gay Marriage the LGB Charity Stonewall had run out of road - what LGB rights were left to secure? So they added QT+ and started advocating for Trans people. Nothing wrong with that. Except some LGB people don't think it's a good fit between LGB (who people are attracted to) and QT+ (who people think they are). Among the QT+ tribe are trans people, who have gender dysphoria, but also "AGPs" - heterosexual men who are sexually aroused by themselves in women's clothes. These men in particular are seen as a threat to women's safety by women's groups.
Then Stonewall started briefing employers and organisations on the Equality Law as they thought it should be, not as it actually was. They also adopted a policy of "No Debate" when it came to Trans rights, so were not only deaf to criticism, but actively hostile towards it. This ended up in the courts when employers sacked people based on "Stonewall law" and found it did not stand up. These people were predominantly women, often left wing & frequently lesbian. So much for Tory "culture war"!
Meanwhile in Scotland, safe in the progressive echo chamber the SNP at the behest of their Green partners pushed through Gender Recognition Reform - which would turn getting a gender recognition certificate into a formality - again discussion or debate was dismissed as "transphobia". When this was finally exposed to full public discussion and the case of male rapists discovering they had "Prison onset gender dysphoria - can I be housed with women?" the politicians were I suspect grateful for Westminster blocking it because they could return to safer ground "disrespecting Scotland" than a policy unpopular with voters.
Back in England the explosion in cases of "gender dysphoria" among teen girls (previously it had mainly been pre-pubescent children and middle aged men) at the Tavistock led to an investigation under a leading paediatrician - Dr Cass - which started blowing holes in the assertions of the "Affirmative Care" model - widely (and, it must be said, profitably) promoted in the USA in particular. The ripples from the NHS review are spreading across the world with Australia wondering whether it should backtrack, and some states in the US now banning so-called "affirmative care". 1/2
In the US the debate is catastrophically polarised - Democrats fully in the "Affirmative Care" camp (where "the science is settled" FFS - anyone who writes that doesn't understand science) and the GOP who are pursuing a "stop it all" model. Both are wrong, although I think the GOP is doing less damage.
In the UK its been overwhelmingly women making the running - from across politics - but frequently left wing. The Tories sporadically venture into it (Badenoch is sound, Mordaunt not) and Labour are hopelessly tongue tied. Some of them have worked out that women don't have penises, others can't bring themselves to say so.
The victims?
Young (probably gay) kids with other mental health problems who have been sterilised and maimed for life, unnecessarily.
Women sports competitors who have been cheated out of titles, winnings and earnings by men who think they are women. In some cases they've been injured by them too.
Medics, who have been hounded out of jobs for saying "you can't change sex".
Trans people - who wanted to get on with their lives but been drawn into a toxic debate.
But that's where "no debate" will get you.
If you haven't seen it
https://www.channel4.com/programmes/gender-wars/on-demand/74736-001
Presents the story so far going into the experience of Kathleen Stock, but doesn't touch the medical issues.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obergefell_v._Hodges
The trans stuff was merely what all of the activists moved on to.
The British forces have zero L3+ Ukrainian speakers and are forced to rely on contracted translators who are probably 50% GRU agents.
One of the things which boils my piss about all this is that this is described as a Tory culture war. The right have done virtually nothing here apart from almost silently yearn for saner days.