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Punters think Rishi is going to be disappointed – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,904
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    What else is he supposed to say? That his chances of winning are between slim and nil and Slim is out of town?

    Only the Express could take such comments seriously and even they struggle.

    I don’t agree that Rishi isn’t very good but it really won’t matter. The Tories are done and need to reinvent themselves once again during at least 2 Parliaments in opposition.

    Indeed:

    There comes a time when a party has been in power a long time, a little bit of arrogance has crept in, and they can't do anything right.

    There was nothing - fundamentally - wrong with Major's 1992-1997 government. Indeed, in many ways, it achieved a lot (a budget surplus, economic growth, progress in Northern Ireland, some much needed reforms to the white collar unions). Yet no-one gave a shit.

    Sunak - with a similar managerial bent - looks likely to suffer the same fate.
    Yep. The bad habits of being too long on power have crept in, things feel like crap, if it wasn't time now when would it be?

    If Rishi is still interested he can come back in 10 years after a sabbatical in the US.
    That's not happening. Sunak won't be coming back if he doesn't cling on at the next GE.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,410
    Sean_F said:

    I regret to inform you that a friend has said the same.

    Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny review — even Fleabag can’t rescue him this time

    The good news is that it’s not as poor as Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. The bad news is that it’s not much better.

    A meandering, frequently enervating yawn, this fifth and most expensive Indy outing yet (about $300 million) is a curious demonstration of how a Hollywood studio can fire nearly a third of a billion bucks at late 20th century nostalgia and get it so wrong.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indiana-jones-and-the-dial-of-destiny-review-even-fleabag-cant-rescue-him-this-time-xrlxsz5sg

    Sounds dismal.

    You can find really good examples of fanfiction, for almost any popular work, yet people who are paid professionals so often create crap.

    One film which greatly impressed me, and which I’m keenly awaiting Part Two, is Dune.
    It startled, even cynical me, that with Game of Thrones, the show runners said that they were bored and tired - and were allowed to run the show off the rails rather than being replaced.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,681
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    The bathroom tiles are made of fossils

    Are you safe?
    Be hard to distinguish between the tiles and Leon
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak isn’t very good at winning elections so far.

    There is only one that matters

    However, Johnson and Truss legacy means he is unlikely to win in 24
    It’s his legacy too. He was chancellor for much of it.
    He resigned as Johnson’s COE and opposed Truss idiotic ideas
    He didn’t resign as Chancellor because he disagreed with Boris Johnson’s economic policies.
    If we believe Boris (just bear with me) then Boris didn't agree with Boris Johnson's economic policies.

    Surprising people appear to believe him that mean old Mr Mr Sunak made him do all that high tax stuff, he was just the helpless PM who was finally about to do Trussism, but properly, and his enemies took him out for that.

    Pincher who?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,681

    Looks like Ukraine will now get F16s

    Biden says US wont block any transfers from European countries

    sooner the better
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,175
    edited May 2023
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    The bathroom tiles are made of fossils

    Are you safe?
    I confess I am worried about djinns. It all feels very haunted. At night the silence is like sensory deprivation

    Prince Charles stayed here ten years ago and they built him a bathtub

    https://www.thehotelguru.com/hotel/adrere-amellal-siwa


    https://www.adrereamellal.com/adrere/
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cracking timing for the official announcement of his presidential run.

    Disney cancels plans for $1bn campus in Florida amid battle with DeSantis
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/may/18/disney-cancels-1bn-florida-campus-2000-jobs

    Hopefully he becomes a more malign version of Jeb Bush.

    You don't mess with the Mouse.
    De Santis v Disney is very much Alien v Predator. You want both to lose.
    Disney at least produce some things I like!

    It's a company fighting to maintain power and wealth after having a rather sweet deal screwed with, but Desantis shouldn't have escalated things so far - they will be there long after he is a fading political memory.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    Your last point is very true. Hearing jobs called "low skilled" just because they don't require a PPE degree and don't pay well is one of the things that really pisses me off. It just speaks to the ignorance of the middle class people who throw the term around, and is part of the ideological discourse by which these jobs are undervalued and the people who do them underpaid.
    I recall being in group of retired men, at a U3a meeting, who had, we discovered, all at some time or other worked at the same place. One of them said he’d ‘just been a labourer’ and it was pointed out that we’d all relied on each other to be able to do our jobs. Including him!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    What else is he supposed to say? That his chances of winning are between slim and nil and Slim is out of town?

    Only the Express could take such comments seriously and even they struggle.

    I don’t agree that Rishi isn’t very good but it really won’t matter. The Tories are done and need to reinvent themselves once again during at least 2 Parliaments in opposition.

    Indeed:

    There comes a time when a party has been in power a long time, a little bit of arrogance has crept in, and they can't do anything right.

    There was nothing - fundamentally - wrong with Major's 1992-1997 government. Indeed, in many ways, it achieved a lot (a budget surplus, economic growth, progress in Northern Ireland, some much needed reforms to the white collar unions). Yet no-one gave a shit.

    Sunak - with a similar managerial bent - looks likely to suffer the same fate.
    Yep. The bad habits of being too long on power have crept in, things feel like crap, if it wasn't time now when would it be?

    If Rishi is still interested he can come back in 10 years after a sabbatical in the US.
    That's not happening. Sunak won't be coming back if he doesn't cling on at the next GE.
    I omitted the words 'try to' before 'come back'. I dont think he actually would.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,904
    malcolmg said:

    Looks like Ukraine will now get F16s

    Biden says US wont block any transfers from European countries

    sooner the better
    What difference will they actually make? I thought the issue both sides have is that air defence systems make air superiority impossible to achieve?
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    Your last point is very true. Hearing jobs called "low skilled" just because they don't require a PPE degree and don't pay well is one of the things that really pisses me off. It just speaks to the ignorance of the middle class people who throw the term around, and is part of the ideological discourse by which these jobs are undervalued and the people who do them underpaid.
    There are also highly paid low skill jobs, of course. Met police chief for example (at least, they always seem to recruit low skill people, so I assume it must be a low skill job). Some cabinet posts, too, apparently.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458
    malcolmg said:

    Looks like Ukraine will now get F16s

    Biden says US wont block any transfers from European countries

    sooner the better
    I get much of the West's fears around escalating support, but given what its provided already i dont get the delay here or why change now.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,015

    Another reason why WFH is awesome.

    WFH is closing door on rocketing property prices, economist says

    The era of massive house price rises is coming to an end because of the increase in working from home, rising interest rates and slower population growth, a senior economist at the government’s spending watchdog has said.

    David Miles, an economist at the Office for Budget Responsibility, said growth in house prices in the coming decades would be “much weaker” than it has been for the past 40 years.

    He said the rise in people working from home since the Covid pandemic had given people more choice about where they could live.

    “Those forces driving [house prices] up are going to be much weaker, I suspect, in the next 40 years than they have been in the past 40 years,” he told a conference held by the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence in London. “If anything, this unusual age of massive rises of house prices may be nearing an end.”

    He said that house prices had risen particularly quickly in the UK compared with other countries because of constraints on house building.

    A poll on Thursday revealed that Britain is facing a generational divide over the green belt as a majority of young people favour relaxing restrictions to allow more development.

    The Fabian Society and YouGov found 63 per cent of under-25s support building more affordable housing on the green belt, compared with 31 per cent of over-65s


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/wfh-is-closing-door-on-rocketing-property-prices-economist-says-87fxlv2g7

    To take your point off at a slight tangent, 'the green belt' and 'rural england' seem to be conflated. A quick look at a map shows that 'the green belt' is definitely not rural england - certainly not what I'd call rural anyway it's more a potential extension of suburbia of some major and middling towns and cities. Semi-rural at best.
    There's no green belt east of Cambridge, or in Devon & Cornwall for instance.
    - AONBs & national parks in these areas are of course not greenbelt.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,438
    DougSeal said:

    DavidL said:

    What else is he supposed to say? That his chances of winning are between slim and nil and Slim is out of town?

    Only the Express could take such comments seriously and even they struggle.

    I don’t agree that Rishi isn’t very good but it really won’t matter. The Tories are done and need to reinvent themselves once again during at least 2 Parliaments in opposition.

    I have a similar problem with the derision heaped on Jo Swinson here for her statement about becoming PM. She was leading a party standing in every constituency in GB. Was she supposed to say “My ambition is to prop up Johnson or Corbyn” to galvanise her party instead? Everyone knew she had no chance, but a non-league team playing Man City in the cup isn’t going to say, “ah, we’re just here to make up the numbers”.

    There are many reasons she wasn’t good but that wasn’t one.
    Local LibDems didn't like it - they were in a strong position to win the seat, and wanted the message to be all about the powerful alternative to the Tories. It wasn't so much Jo's claim - as yhou say, these fictions need to be observed - as the fact that it majored on each LibDem leaflet, to increasing derision. It's as though every current Labour leaflet claimed that having PM Starmer will be FUN - it's possible, but not perhaps the obvious claim to lead on.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,681

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Maybe but personally I think HMG should go on a diet, kick 500k public funded workers back in to the real economy and thereby cut spending and increase private sector output.
    Exactly , we would not notice any difference and there would be an abundance of fruit pickers and slash immigration as well.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,175
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Maybe but personally I think HMG should go on a diet, kick 500k public funded workers back in to the real economy and thereby cut spending and increase private sector output.
    Exactly , we would not notice any difference and there would be an abundance of fruit pickers and slash immigration as well.
    Elon Musk has just sacked 80% of Twitter staff and the site runs just fine. A lesson there
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I regret to inform you that a friend has said the same.

    Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny review — even Fleabag can’t rescue him this time

    The good news is that it’s not as poor as Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. The bad news is that it’s not much better.

    A meandering, frequently enervating yawn, this fifth and most expensive Indy outing yet (about $300 million) is a curious demonstration of how a Hollywood studio can fire nearly a third of a billion bucks at late 20th century nostalgia and get it so wrong.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indiana-jones-and-the-dial-of-destiny-review-even-fleabag-cant-rescue-him-this-time-xrlxsz5sg

    Sounds dismal.

    You can find really good examples of fanfiction, for almost any popular work, yet people who are paid professionals so often create crap.

    One film which greatly impressed me, and which I’m keenly awaiting Part Two, is Dune.
    I didn't much like it, since I think Chalamet is a dismal actor in everything I've seen him in and dont know what everyone else sees in him, but I want it to do so well they decide to make films of all the books, including the really crap ones at the end of the series. There's some very weird stuff that would be fun to see done epic and serious.
    I loved Dune, thought Dune Messiah was tripe, but enjoyed Children of Dune. God Emperor? Well, I didn’t get very far before giving it up.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,055
    edited May 2023
    Taz said:

    So all of those people who were pushed into degrees by New Labour initially, who determined the jobs of the future will need degress, and carried on by subsequent govts. The striking doctors and uni lecturers and other middle class, white collar jobs, @Leon is right about this. AI is going to hit many white collar, middle management jobs like a steam train.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/technology/artificial-intelligence-to-hit-workplace-like-a-freight-train-energy-boss-warns/ar-AA1bmSp1?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=8db4a9a1be1c4f36bed676afa027b59e&ei=25

    That article leads on customer service jobs, which have already been decimated by overseas call centres and AI chatbots. What else? Gigging freelancers, perhaps, like the ones on fiverr. More likely in the short term is that AI will open up services to the person on the street, in the same way drones meant every Youtube video can have overhead shots, not just mainstream television with budgets for helicopters. AI can provide you and me with translations of foreign web pages, but professional interpreters are still in demand.

    In computing, programmers are still there but are increasingly using AI to get help rather than sites like stackoverflow.

    In medicine, one can imagine AI scanning X-rays but before radiologists resign en masse, we must remember IBM's Watson AI flopped in its trials with top American hospitals.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458
    Thats a shame about Dial of Destiny. That would officially mean more than half the films are not great.

    The Last Crusade - brilliant
    Raiders - fantastic
    Temple of Doom - ok
    Crystal Skull - not as awful as people make out, but not good at all
    Dial - ??
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,681

    malcolmg said:

    Looks like Ukraine will now get F16s

    Biden says US wont block any transfers from European countries

    sooner the better
    What difference will they actually make? I thought the issue both sides have is that air defence systems make air superiority impossible to achieve?
    They help launch missiles from long distances and they would be able to deter the Russians putting up their jets / bombers to launch all the missiles that are being sent over.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I regret to inform you that a friend has said the same.

    Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny review — even Fleabag can’t rescue him this time

    The good news is that it’s not as poor as Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. The bad news is that it’s not much better.

    A meandering, frequently enervating yawn, this fifth and most expensive Indy outing yet (about $300 million) is a curious demonstration of how a Hollywood studio can fire nearly a third of a billion bucks at late 20th century nostalgia and get it so wrong.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indiana-jones-and-the-dial-of-destiny-review-even-fleabag-cant-rescue-him-this-time-xrlxsz5sg

    Sounds dismal.

    You can find really good examples of fanfiction, for almost any popular work, yet people who are paid professionals so often create crap.

    One film which greatly impressed me, and which I’m keenly awaiting Part Two, is Dune.
    I didn't much like it, since I think Chalamet is a dismal actor in everything I've seen him in and dont know what everyone else sees in him, but I want it to do so well they decide to make films of all the books, including the really crap ones at the end of the series. There's some very weird stuff that would be fun to see done epic and serious.
    I loved Dune, thought Dune Messiah was tripe, but enjoyed Children of Dune. God Emperor? Well, I didn’t get very far before giving it up.
    God Emperor is a masterpiece compared to what comes after it. It's so bad it's almost worth it.

    Nostalgia plays its part there with trying to bring back Dune highlights.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645

    Sean_F said:

    I regret to inform you that a friend has said the same.

    Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny review — even Fleabag can’t rescue him this time

    The good news is that it’s not as poor as Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. The bad news is that it’s not much better.

    A meandering, frequently enervating yawn, this fifth and most expensive Indy outing yet (about $300 million) is a curious demonstration of how a Hollywood studio can fire nearly a third of a billion bucks at late 20th century nostalgia and get it so wrong.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indiana-jones-and-the-dial-of-destiny-review-even-fleabag-cant-rescue-him-this-time-xrlxsz5sg

    Sounds dismal.

    You can find really good examples of fanfiction, for almost any popular work, yet people who are paid professionals so often create crap.

    One film which greatly impressed me, and which I’m keenly awaiting Part Two, is Dune.
    It startled, even cynical me, that with Game of Thrones, the show runners said that they were bored and tired - and were allowed to run the show off the rails rather than being replaced.
    As one friend put it, “D and D got paid millions for writing crapulent fanfiction, why can’t I?”

    Joe Abercrombie would have been the man to finish GOT, once they lost interest.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,904
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Maybe but personally I think HMG should go on a diet, kick 500k public funded workers back in to the real economy and thereby cut spending and increase private sector output.
    Exactly , we would not notice any difference and there would be an abundance of fruit pickers and slash immigration as well.
    To quote a PB legend: "Absolute mince."
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,495
    edited May 2023
    First photoshoot and meetings begun for G7 leaders in Japan. This is Sunak and Meloni's first G7 summit as they join Biden, Macron, Trudeau, Scholz and Kishida (plus EU leaders Von Der Leyen and Michel).

    Poor Liz never got to attend even 1 G7 or G20 summit as PM. I believe the first UK PM never to attend either since they were established

    Zelensky will join the summit on Sunday
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-65605263
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,904
    edited May 2023
    Pulpstar said:

    Another reason why WFH is awesome.

    WFH is closing door on rocketing property prices, economist says

    The era of massive house price rises is coming to an end because of the increase in working from home, rising interest rates and slower population growth, a senior economist at the government’s spending watchdog has said.

    David Miles, an economist at the Office for Budget Responsibility, said growth in house prices in the coming decades would be “much weaker” than it has been for the past 40 years.

    He said the rise in people working from home since the Covid pandemic had given people more choice about where they could live.

    “Those forces driving [house prices] up are going to be much weaker, I suspect, in the next 40 years than they have been in the past 40 years,” he told a conference held by the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence in London. “If anything, this unusual age of massive rises of house prices may be nearing an end.”

    He said that house prices had risen particularly quickly in the UK compared with other countries because of constraints on house building.

    A poll on Thursday revealed that Britain is facing a generational divide over the green belt as a majority of young people favour relaxing restrictions to allow more development.

    The Fabian Society and YouGov found 63 per cent of under-25s support building more affordable housing on the green belt, compared with 31 per cent of over-65s


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/wfh-is-closing-door-on-rocketing-property-prices-economist-says-87fxlv2g7

    To take your point off at a slight tangent, 'the green belt' and 'rural england' seem to be conflated. A quick look at a map shows that 'the green belt' is definitely not rural england - certainly not what I'd call rural anyway it's more a potential extension of suburbia of some major and middling towns and cities. Semi-rural at best.
    There's no green belt east of Cambridge, or in Devon & Cornwall for instance.
    - AONBs & national parks in these areas are of course not greenbelt.
    Good point:

    image
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,739
    There are a lot of creative or semi-creative, and also people-orientated jobs, that are not going to be fully replaceable by AI.

    Playwright, musician, nurse, doctor, human resources manager, maitre d', chef, used car dealer, upper-class fraudster, etc.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    DougSeal said:

    DavidL said:

    What else is he supposed to say? That his chances of winning are between slim and nil and Slim is out of town?

    Only the Express could take such comments seriously and even they struggle.

    I don’t agree that Rishi isn’t very good but it really won’t matter. The Tories are done and need to reinvent themselves once again during at least 2 Parliaments in opposition.

    I have a similar problem with the derision heaped on Jo Swinson here for her statement about becoming PM. She was leading a party standing in every constituency in GB. Was she supposed to say “My ambition is to prop up Johnson or Corbyn” to galvanise her party instead? Everyone knew she had no chance, but a non-league team playing Man City in the cup isn’t going to say, “ah, we’re just here to make up the numbers”.

    There are many reasons she wasn’t good but that wasn’t one.
    Local LibDems didn't like it - they were in a strong position to win the seat, and wanted the message to be all about the powerful alternative to the Tories. It wasn't so much Jo's claim - as yhou say, these fictions need to be observed - as the fact that it majored on each LibDem leaflet, to increasing derision. It's as though every current Labour leaflet claimed that having PM Starmer will be FUN - it's possible, but not perhaps the obvious claim to lead on.
    That was my first election on the orange bus, and it was eye-openingly bad. Swinson and her advisors seemed to have modelled the campaign on the Flight of Icarus. We would get very regular updates about which campaign priorities there were (always changing) and which constituencies we should go and support (always changing and getting increasingly silly).

    In the end there was a panicked "please drop everything and go defend Tim Farron". In public they were were still talking themselves up, but internal polling was obviously bad and a last bastion strategy hastily thrown together. Worked for Farron, didn't work for Swinson...
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,815

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,410

    malcolmg said:

    Looks like Ukraine will now get F16s

    Biden says US wont block any transfers from European countries

    sooner the better
    What difference will they actually make? I thought the issue both sides have is that air defence systems make air superiority impossible to achieve?
    To start with, they could do better at carrying the air launched weapons supplied already - the hacked together interfaces on the Ukrainian Migs

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    Your last point is very true. Hearing jobs called "low skilled" just because they don't require a PPE degree and don't pay well is one of the things that really pisses me off. It just speaks to the ignorance of the middle class people who throw the term around, and is part of the ideological discourse by which these jobs are undervalued and the people who do them underpaid.
    I recall being in group of retired men, at a U3a meeting, who had, we discovered, all at some time or other worked at the same place. One of them said he’d ‘just been a labourer’ and it was pointed out that we’d all relied on each other to be able to do our jobs. Including him!
    What is changing is the rise of the "mixed role job" - for example, instead of horny handed manual machinists who do maths with chalk on the wall next to the lathe, we need CNC operators who can both machine (need to know the manual stuff), understand programming and have a body of theoretical knowledge on metals and a great deal else.

    The fruit pickers of tomorrow will be the operators of the sophisticated machines that do the fruit picking.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,495

    Pulpstar said:

    Another reason why WFH is awesome.

    WFH is closing door on rocketing property prices, economist says

    The era of massive house price rises is coming to an end because of the increase in working from home, rising interest rates and slower population growth, a senior economist at the government’s spending watchdog has said.

    David Miles, an economist at the Office for Budget Responsibility, said growth in house prices in the coming decades would be “much weaker” than it has been for the past 40 years.

    He said the rise in people working from home since the Covid pandemic had given people more choice about where they could live.

    “Those forces driving [house prices] up are going to be much weaker, I suspect, in the next 40 years than they have been in the past 40 years,” he told a conference held by the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence in London. “If anything, this unusual age of massive rises of house prices may be nearing an end.”

    He said that house prices had risen particularly quickly in the UK compared with other countries because of constraints on house building.

    A poll on Thursday revealed that Britain is facing a generational divide over the green belt as a majority of young people favour relaxing restrictions to allow more development.

    The Fabian Society and YouGov found 63 per cent of under-25s support building more affordable housing on the green belt, compared with 31 per cent of over-65s


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/wfh-is-closing-door-on-rocketing-property-prices-economist-says-87fxlv2g7

    To take your point off at a slight tangent, 'the green belt' and 'rural england' seem to be conflated. A quick look at a map shows that 'the green belt' is definitely not rural england - certainly not what I'd call rural anyway it's more a potential extension of suburbia of some major and middling towns and cities. Semi-rural at best.
    There's no green belt east of Cambridge, or in Devon & Cornwall for instance.
    - AONBs & national parks in these areas are of course not greenbelt.
    Good point:

    image
    Yes but but look at the greenbelt around London suburbia especially, full of Conservative v Labour marginal seats. Starmer promising to build all over it won't help him electorally there, at least not short term
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,904
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Looks like Ukraine will now get F16s

    Biden says US wont block any transfers from European countries

    sooner the better
    What difference will they actually make? I thought the issue both sides have is that air defence systems make air superiority impossible to achieve?
    They help launch missiles from long distances and they would be able to deter the Russians putting up their jets / bombers to launch all the missiles that are being sent over.
    Thanks. Still seems a bit strange you need a 4th generation fight to launch long range missiles but tbf I no nothing about defence so happy to take your word for it.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,410

    malcolmg said:

    Looks like Ukraine will now get F16s

    Biden says US wont block any transfers from European countries

    sooner the better
    What difference will they actually make? I thought the issue both sides have is that air defence systems make air superiority impossible to achieve?
    To start with, they could do better at carrying the air launched weapons supplied already - the hacked together interfaces on the Ukrainian MIGs don’t support much beyond a basic point and launch.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,904
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Another reason why WFH is awesome.

    WFH is closing door on rocketing property prices, economist says

    The era of massive house price rises is coming to an end because of the increase in working from home, rising interest rates and slower population growth, a senior economist at the government’s spending watchdog has said.

    David Miles, an economist at the Office for Budget Responsibility, said growth in house prices in the coming decades would be “much weaker” than it has been for the past 40 years.

    He said the rise in people working from home since the Covid pandemic had given people more choice about where they could live.

    “Those forces driving [house prices] up are going to be much weaker, I suspect, in the next 40 years than they have been in the past 40 years,” he told a conference held by the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence in London. “If anything, this unusual age of massive rises of house prices may be nearing an end.”

    He said that house prices had risen particularly quickly in the UK compared with other countries because of constraints on house building.

    A poll on Thursday revealed that Britain is facing a generational divide over the green belt as a majority of young people favour relaxing restrictions to allow more development.

    The Fabian Society and YouGov found 63 per cent of under-25s support building more affordable housing on the green belt, compared with 31 per cent of over-65s


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/wfh-is-closing-door-on-rocketing-property-prices-economist-says-87fxlv2g7

    To take your point off at a slight tangent, 'the green belt' and 'rural england' seem to be conflated. A quick look at a map shows that 'the green belt' is definitely not rural england - certainly not what I'd call rural anyway it's more a potential extension of suburbia of some major and middling towns and cities. Semi-rural at best.
    There's no green belt east of Cambridge, or in Devon & Cornwall for instance.
    - AONBs & national parks in these areas are of course not greenbelt.
    Good point:

    image
    Yes but but look at the greenbelt around London suburbia especially, full of Conservative v Labour marginal seats. Starmer promising to build all over it won't help him electorally there, at least not short term
    I think "promising to build all over it" is a Daily Hate interpretation.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,904

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    Interesting point re car washing. How does the taxpayer subsidise that?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,008
    Have we done this?

    Boris Johnson has been told by the Tory party that he cannot make a ‘chicken run’ to Henley at the next election, the town’s MP has said.

    John Howell insisted the former prime minister would only take up the seat, which has a healthy Conservative majority, “over my dead body”.

    Mr Johnson represented the Oxfordshire constituency from 2001 until 2008, when he left the Commons to become the Mayor of London.

    He has been repeatedly linked with a return given that his current seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip is now highly vulnerable to Labour.

    Mr Howell, who has announced he is standing down at the next election, was asked if he had struck a deal for the former prime minister to take over.

    “I can absolutely deny that,” he told ITV. “I do not do deals with Boris Johnson and I have not done a deal with Boris Johnson.

    “He has been told by the Conservative Party that he has to stand in his current seat.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/18/boris-johnson-henley-seat-constituency-cchq-chicken-run/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,357
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Another reason why WFH is awesome.

    WFH is closing door on rocketing property prices, economist says

    The era of massive house price rises is coming to an end because of the increase in working from home, rising interest rates and slower population growth, a senior economist at the government’s spending watchdog has said.

    David Miles, an economist at the Office for Budget Responsibility, said growth in house prices in the coming decades would be “much weaker” than it has been for the past 40 years.

    He said the rise in people working from home since the Covid pandemic had given people more choice about where they could live.

    “Those forces driving [house prices] up are going to be much weaker, I suspect, in the next 40 years than they have been in the past 40 years,” he told a conference held by the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence in London. “If anything, this unusual age of massive rises of house prices may be nearing an end.”

    He said that house prices had risen particularly quickly in the UK compared with other countries because of constraints on house building.

    A poll on Thursday revealed that Britain is facing a generational divide over the green belt as a majority of young people favour relaxing restrictions to allow more development.

    The Fabian Society and YouGov found 63 per cent of under-25s support building more affordable housing on the green belt, compared with 31 per cent of over-65s


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/wfh-is-closing-door-on-rocketing-property-prices-economist-says-87fxlv2g7

    To take your point off at a slight tangent, 'the green belt' and 'rural england' seem to be conflated. A quick look at a map shows that 'the green belt' is definitely not rural england - certainly not what I'd call rural anyway it's more a potential extension of suburbia of some major and middling towns and cities. Semi-rural at best.
    There's no green belt east of Cambridge, or in Devon & Cornwall for instance.
    - AONBs & national parks in these areas are of course not greenbelt.
    Good point:

    image
    Yes but but look at the greenbelt around London suburbia especially, full of Conservative v Labour marginal seats. Starmer promising to build all over it won't help him electorally there, at least not short term
    It's not universally the case that suggesting developing on Green Belt is politically unpopular, as this discussion shows.
    It will certainly generate opposition, but it will also generate support. And it might well be that most of the opposition comes from people who were never going to vote Labour anyway.

    Also, to pick up on some of the embedded points:

    - it is important to note, as Pulpstar does, that Green Belt <> rural England. Although many of the same issues about developing on the former are also relevant for the latter.

    - it is baffling, as TSE notes, that so much of what happens is reported through the fear that action x will drive down property prices. The Telegraph is particularly strange for this. There was a report yesterday that demographic change in London was driving down demand for schools, which in turn was lowering standards, which in turn was lowering property prices. The latter was presented as the thing we should all be worried about, rather than an interesting by-product of the former.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,410
    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    Your last point is very true. Hearing jobs called "low skilled" just because they don't require a PPE degree and don't pay well is one of the things that really pisses me off. It just speaks to the ignorance of the middle class people who throw the term around, and is part of the ideological discourse by which these jobs are undervalued and the people who do them underpaid.
    There are also highly paid low skill jobs, of course. Met police chief for example (at least, they always seem to recruit low skill people, so I assume it must be a low skill job). Some cabinet posts, too, apparently.
    The idea that such jobs can be filled by any clown and that there is no training for it is peculiar.

    I have long argued that politicians need a career path, with professional development, training etc.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    WRT car washing, hand car washers simply do a better job than a machine.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,739
    edited May 2023

    Have we done this?

    Boris Johnson has been told by the Tory party that he cannot make a ‘chicken run’ to Henley at the next election, the town’s MP has said.

    John Howell insisted the former prime minister would only take up the seat, which has a healthy Conservative majority, “over my dead body”.

    Mr Johnson represented the Oxfordshire constituency from 2001 until 2008, when he left the Commons to become the Mayor of London.

    He has been repeatedly linked with a return given that his current seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip is now highly vulnerable to Labour.

    Mr Howell, who has announced he is standing down at the next election, was asked if he had struck a deal for the former prime minister to take over.

    “I can absolutely deny that,” he told ITV. “I do not do deals with Boris Johnson and I have not done a deal with Boris Johnson.

    “He has been told by the Conservative Party that he has to stand in his current seat.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/18/boris-johnson-henley-seat-constituency-cchq-chicken-run/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

    Cue more splutterings at the next National Conservative conference.

    I think that might be the end of Act 1, Scene II, for him, personally. Next stop flogging rubbish to the credulous in an easy international corporate job, or an easily remunerated lifetime on the global after-dinner trail ; although actually, thinking about it, both may amount to the same thing.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,904
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    WRT car washing, hand car washers simply do a better job than a machine.
    Agreed. Especially on the inside.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,008
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    WRT car washing, hand car washers simply do a better job than a machine.
    Yup, no scratches, plus the inside valet, no machine can do that.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,495
    'His Excellency, Archbishop Maury Buendia, who has been appointed as Apostolic Nuncio to Great Britain, was greeted by Cardinal Nichols at Westminster on 18th May, before proceeding by horse-drawn carriage to Buckingham Palace to present his Letter of Credence to King Charles III'
    https://flickr.com/photos/27340278@N03/sets/72177720308379014?fbclid=IwAR10t4XZqeg95CeMnV_sPpg6IXSxdi56-uK7Afbo1ljc_RC0DLRpBTNXVrA
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,904

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    Your last point is very true. Hearing jobs called "low skilled" just because they don't require a PPE degree and don't pay well is one of the things that really pisses me off. It just speaks to the ignorance of the middle class people who throw the term around, and is part of the ideological discourse by which these jobs are undervalued and the people who do them underpaid.
    There are also highly paid low skill jobs, of course. Met police chief for example (at least, they always seem to recruit low skill people, so I assume it must be a low skill job). Some cabinet posts, too, apparently.
    The idea that such jobs can be filled by any clown and that there is no training for it is peculiar.

    I have long argued that politicians need a career path, with professional development, training etc.
    The roles require skill; unfortunately the people fulfilling them often do not have it.

    The selection process for politicians in particular is somewhat unscientific.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645

    Have we done this?

    Boris Johnson has been told by the Tory party that he cannot make a ‘chicken run’ to Henley at the next election, the town’s MP has said.

    John Howell insisted the former prime minister would only take up the seat, which has a healthy Conservative majority, “over my dead body”.

    Mr Johnson represented the Oxfordshire constituency from 2001 until 2008, when he left the Commons to become the Mayor of London.

    He has been repeatedly linked with a return given that his current seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip is now highly vulnerable to Labour.

    Mr Howell, who has announced he is standing down at the next election, was asked if he had struck a deal for the former prime minister to take over.

    “I can absolutely deny that,” he told ITV. “I do not do deals with Boris Johnson and I have not done a deal with Boris Johnson.

    “He has been told by the Conservative Party that he has to stand in his current seat.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/18/boris-johnson-henley-seat-constituency-cchq-chicken-run/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

    Cue more splutterings at the next National Conservative conference.

    I think that might be the end of Act 1, Scene II, for him, personally. Next stop flogging rubbish to the credulous in an easy corporate job, somewhere abroad, or an easily remunerated lifetime on the global after-dinner trail.
    Women find Boris Johnson very sexy. Maybe he could become a male stripper.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,410

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    WRT car washing, hand car washers simply do a better job than a machine.
    Yup, no scratches, plus the inside valet, no machine can do that.
    If you adapted the latest tech in robotics, yes, you could.

    More delicate touch than humans has been demonstrated.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    HYUFD said:

    'His Excellency, Archbishop Maury Buendia, who has been appointed as Apostolic Nuncio to Great Britain, was greeted by Cardinal Nichols at Westminster on 18th May, before proceeding by horse-drawn carriage to Buckingham Palace to present his Letter of Credence to King Charles III'
    https://flickr.com/photos/27340278@N03/sets/72177720308379014?fbclid=IwAR10t4XZqeg95CeMnV_sPpg6IXSxdi56-uK7Afbo1ljc_RC0DLRpBTNXVrA

    Semi-serious question: 'Great Britain' - is NI excluded for being too protestant? Or does the Vatican have a 'one Ireland' policy so NI comes under whoever they send to the RoI?
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,357

    There are a lot of creative or semi-creative, and also people-orientated jobs, that are not going to be fully replaceable by AI.

    Playwright, musician, nurse, doctor, human resources manager, maitre d', chef, used car dealer, upper-class fraudster, etc.

    Playwright - yes, definitely replaceable by AI. (ChatGPT - please write a play about how life isn't fair which will make the audience go away feeling bad for being humans).
    Musician - yes, ditto.
    Nurse - probably not.
    Doctor - yes.
    HR Manager - you could probably replace one of these with a cardboard box with a smiley face drawn on it.
    Maitre d' - in all honesty, I don't think I've ever encountered one.
    Chef - not yet.
    Used car dealer - basically has already been replaced by AI. Look at the Autotrader website.
    Upper-class fraudster - I reckon AI could give it a good go.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,495
    edited May 2023

    Have we done this?

    Boris Johnson has been told by the Tory party that he cannot make a ‘chicken run’ to Henley at the next election, the town’s MP has said.

    John Howell insisted the former prime minister would only take up the seat, which has a healthy Conservative majority, “over my dead body”.

    Mr Johnson represented the Oxfordshire constituency from 2001 until 2008, when he left the Commons to become the Mayor of London.

    He has been repeatedly linked with a return given that his current seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip is now highly vulnerable to Labour.

    Mr Howell, who has announced he is standing down at the next election, was asked if he had struck a deal for the former prime minister to take over.

    “I can absolutely deny that,” he told ITV. “I do not do deals with Boris Johnson and I have not done a deal with Boris Johnson.

    “He has been told by the Conservative Party that he has to stand in his current seat.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/18/boris-johnson-henley-seat-constituency-cchq-chicken-run/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

    I wouldn't even say Henley is safe now either given the LDs won a landslide there in the local elections.

    If Boris really wanted a safe seat he would try Dudley, Reigate, Dartford, Basildon or Walsall or Braintree or a seat in Lincolnshire or rural Cambridgeshire or the New Forest based on the local election results
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    Your last point is very true. Hearing jobs called "low skilled" just because they don't require a PPE degree and don't pay well is one of the things that really pisses me off. It just speaks to the ignorance of the middle class people who throw the term around, and is part of the ideological discourse by which these jobs are undervalued and the people who do them underpaid.
    There are also highly paid low skill jobs, of course. Met police chief for example (at least, they always seem to recruit low skill people, so I assume it must be a low skill job). Some cabinet posts, too, apparently.
    The idea that such jobs can be filled by any clown and that there is no training for it is peculiar.

    I have long argued that politicians need a career path, with professional development, training etc.
    PPE -> Spad -> Running the country? Is that not good enough for you? :wink:
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,904

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    WRT car washing, hand car washers simply do a better job than a machine.
    Yup, no scratches, plus the inside valet, no machine can do that.
    If you adapted the latest tech in robotics, yes, you could.

    More delicate touch than humans has been demonstrated.
    Still waiting for the robot that will load my dishwasher and put the clean crockery away afterwards.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,904
    edited May 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Have we done this?

    Boris Johnson has been told by the Tory party that he cannot make a ‘chicken run’ to Henley at the next election, the town’s MP has said.

    John Howell insisted the former prime minister would only take up the seat, which has a healthy Conservative majority, “over my dead body”.

    Mr Johnson represented the Oxfordshire constituency from 2001 until 2008, when he left the Commons to become the Mayor of London.

    He has been repeatedly linked with a return given that his current seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip is now highly vulnerable to Labour.

    Mr Howell, who has announced he is standing down at the next election, was asked if he had struck a deal for the former prime minister to take over.

    “I can absolutely deny that,” he told ITV. “I do not do deals with Boris Johnson and I have not done a deal with Boris Johnson.

    “He has been told by the Conservative Party that he has to stand in his current seat.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/18/boris-johnson-henley-seat-constituency-cchq-chicken-run/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

    I wouldn't even say Henley is safe now either given the LDs won a landslide there in the local elections.

    If Boris really wanted a safe seat he would try Dudley, Dartford, Basildon or Walsall or Braintree or a seat in Lincolnshire or rural Cambridgeshire or the New Forest based on the local election results
    North Dorset. But I can't seen Simon Hoare giving that one up. He actually comes across as an MP who likes representing his constituency.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,495
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Another reason why WFH is awesome.

    WFH is closing door on rocketing property prices, economist says

    The era of massive house price rises is coming to an end because of the increase in working from home, rising interest rates and slower population growth, a senior economist at the government’s spending watchdog has said.

    David Miles, an economist at the Office for Budget Responsibility, said growth in house prices in the coming decades would be “much weaker” than it has been for the past 40 years.

    He said the rise in people working from home since the Covid pandemic had given people more choice about where they could live.

    “Those forces driving [house prices] up are going to be much weaker, I suspect, in the next 40 years than they have been in the past 40 years,” he told a conference held by the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence in London. “If anything, this unusual age of massive rises of house prices may be nearing an end.”

    He said that house prices had risen particularly quickly in the UK compared with other countries because of constraints on house building.

    A poll on Thursday revealed that Britain is facing a generational divide over the green belt as a majority of young people favour relaxing restrictions to allow more development.

    The Fabian Society and YouGov found 63 per cent of under-25s support building more affordable housing on the green belt, compared with 31 per cent of over-65s


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/wfh-is-closing-door-on-rocketing-property-prices-economist-says-87fxlv2g7

    To take your point off at a slight tangent, 'the green belt' and 'rural england' seem to be conflated. A quick look at a map shows that 'the green belt' is definitely not rural england - certainly not what I'd call rural anyway it's more a potential extension of suburbia of some major and middling towns and cities. Semi-rural at best.
    There's no green belt east of Cambridge, or in Devon & Cornwall for instance.
    - AONBs & national parks in these areas are of course not greenbelt.
    Good point:

    image
    Yes but but look at the greenbelt around London suburbia especially, full of Conservative v Labour marginal seats. Starmer promising to build all over it won't help him electorally there, at least not short term
    It's not universally the case that suggesting developing on Green Belt is politically unpopular, as this discussion shows.
    It will certainly generate opposition, but it will also generate support. And it might well be that most of the opposition comes from people who were never going to vote Labour anyway.

    Also, to pick up on some of the embedded points:

    - it is important to note, as Pulpstar does, that Green Belt <> rural England. Although many of the same issues about developing on the former are also relevant for the latter.

    - it is baffling, as TSE notes, that so much of what happens is reported through the fear that action x will drive down property prices. The Telegraph is particularly strange for this. There was a report yesterday that demographic change in London was driving down demand for schools, which in turn was lowering standards, which in turn was lowering property prices. The latter was presented as the thing we should all be worried about, rather than an interesting by-product of the former.
    Yougov suggests it is.

    59% of voters oppose allowing more housing to be built on the greenbelt, just 23% in favour

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/05/17/d5ba5/1
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,495

    HYUFD said:

    Have we done this?

    Boris Johnson has been told by the Tory party that he cannot make a ‘chicken run’ to Henley at the next election, the town’s MP has said.

    John Howell insisted the former prime minister would only take up the seat, which has a healthy Conservative majority, “over my dead body”.

    Mr Johnson represented the Oxfordshire constituency from 2001 until 2008, when he left the Commons to become the Mayor of London.

    He has been repeatedly linked with a return given that his current seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip is now highly vulnerable to Labour.

    Mr Howell, who has announced he is standing down at the next election, was asked if he had struck a deal for the former prime minister to take over.

    “I can absolutely deny that,” he told ITV. “I do not do deals with Boris Johnson and I have not done a deal with Boris Johnson.

    “He has been told by the Conservative Party that he has to stand in his current seat.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/18/boris-johnson-henley-seat-constituency-cchq-chicken-run/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

    I wouldn't even say Henley is safe now either given the LDs won a landslide there in the local elections.

    If Boris really wanted a safe seat he would try Dudley, Dartford, Basildon or Walsall or Braintree or a seat in Lincolnshire or rural Cambridgeshire or the New Forest based on the local election results
    North Dorset. But I can't seen Simon Hoare giving that one up. He actually comes across as an MP who likes representing his constituency.
    Yes, he also needs the local MP to stand down too to try and find a safer seat
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,495
    edited May 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Have we done this?

    Boris Johnson has been told by the Tory party that he cannot make a ‘chicken run’ to Henley at the next election, the town’s MP has said.

    John Howell insisted the former prime minister would only take up the seat, which has a healthy Conservative majority, “over my dead body”.

    Mr Johnson represented the Oxfordshire constituency from 2001 until 2008, when he left the Commons to become the Mayor of London.

    He has been repeatedly linked with a return given that his current seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip is now highly vulnerable to Labour.

    Mr Howell, who has announced he is standing down at the next election, was asked if he had struck a deal for the former prime minister to take over.

    “I can absolutely deny that,” he told ITV. “I do not do deals with Boris Johnson and I have not done a deal with Boris Johnson.

    “He has been told by the Conservative Party that he has to stand in his current seat.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/18/boris-johnson-henley-seat-constituency-cchq-chicken-run/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

    I wouldn't even say Henley is safe now either given the LDs won a landslide there in the local elections.

    If Boris really wanted a safe seat he would try Dudley, Dartford, Basildon or Walsall or Braintree or a seat in Lincolnshire or rural Cambridgeshire or the New Forest based on the local election results
    North Dorset. But I can't seen Simon Hoare giving that one up. He actually comes across as an MP who likes representing his constituency.
    Reigate might be an option. Crispin Blunt standing down, close to London, voted Leave unlike Henley and it was the only council area in Surrey the Tories retained control of in the local elections this month. Broxbourne also another option, strong Leave, again close to London and the only council area in Hertfordshire that stayed Tory on May 4th and Charles Walker is stepping down
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,008
    Posted without comment.

    A decision by Greene King to trial card-only payments in some of its pubs in Notts has led to a boycott by some customers who say they will take their business elsewhere. The pub group has chosen to ditch cash in certain venues, saying the majority of payments are already made by card.

    The Travellers Rest, in Mapperley Plains, is one of the pubs involved in the trial, but some punters aren't happy. One of them, Ross Da'Bell, of Arnold, said: "We are an older couple of regulars that choose to pay cash and now, if we want to go, we have no choice. I personally think that is a mistake on their part. I should have the choice. We eat out a lot and no where else we go does this. It is likely we will go elsewhere in future. It's such a shame."


    https://www.nottinghampost.com/whats-on/food-drink/nottinghamshire-pub-goers-unhappy-greene-8442878
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458
    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    Your last point is very true. Hearing jobs called "low skilled" just because they don't require a PPE degree and don't pay well is one of the things that really pisses me off. It just speaks to the ignorance of the middle class people who throw the term around, and is part of the ideological discourse by which these jobs are undervalued and the people who do them underpaid.
    There are also highly paid low skill jobs, of course. Met police chief for example (at least, they always seem to recruit low skill people, so I assume it must be a low skill job). Some cabinet posts, too, apparently.
    The idea that such jobs can be filled by any clown and that there is no training for it is peculiar.

    I have long argued that politicians need a career path, with professional development, training etc.
    PPE -> Spad -> Running the country? Is that not good enough for you? :wink:
    They dont need a career path, they need better orientation around the various roles of an MP - eg reviewing legislation, representing constituents etc - and then some of incentivising them to see it as in their professional interest to do those things well, rather than rise in their careers pterty much entirely by how well they can throw out a scripted soundbite.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,495
    edited May 2023
    Selebian said:

    HYUFD said:

    'His Excellency, Archbishop Maury Buendia, who has been appointed as Apostolic Nuncio to Great Britain, was greeted by Cardinal Nichols at Westminster on 18th May, before proceeding by horse-drawn carriage to Buckingham Palace to present his Letter of Credence to King Charles III'
    https://flickr.com/photos/27340278@N03/sets/72177720308379014?fbclid=IwAR10t4XZqeg95CeMnV_sPpg6IXSxdi56-uK7Afbo1ljc_RC0DLRpBTNXVrA

    Semi-serious question: 'Great Britain' - is NI excluded for being too protestant? Or does the Vatican have a 'one Ireland' policy so NI comes under whoever they send to the RoI?
    Yes, the Vatican sends an Ambassador to Ireland to cover the whole island. Agreeing to send Vatican Ambassadors to GB was as far as Pope John Paul would go in respect of the heretic UK
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,055

    Posted without comment.

    A decision by Greene King to trial card-only payments in some of its pubs in Notts has led to a boycott by some customers who say they will take their business elsewhere. The pub group has chosen to ditch cash in certain venues, saying the majority of payments are already made by card.

    The Travellers Rest, in Mapperley Plains, is one of the pubs involved in the trial, but some punters aren't happy. One of them, Ross Da'Bell, of Arnold, said: "We are an older couple of regulars that choose to pay cash and now, if we want to go, we have no choice. I personally think that is a mistake on their part. I should have the choice. We eat out a lot and no where else we go does this. It is likely we will go elsewhere in future. It's such a shame."


    https://www.nottinghampost.com/whats-on/food-drink/nottinghamshire-pub-goers-unhappy-greene-8442878

    Card payments reduces the need for bar staff to take cash, put it in the till and hand over change. It is this sort of automation killing jobs, not (or not just) AI.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,815

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    Interesting point re car washing. How does the taxpayer subsidise that?
    Low paid workers claim benefits, use public services, require housing, add to pressure on transport and the environment.

    A car wash machine needs none of that.

    Remember that to be a net financial contributor you need to be way above average earnings.

    Returning to the replacement of investment and training with the low paid it has been an indictment of the UK's executive class.

    Investment in new plant, new technologies, new ideas and the necessary training and education costs money, needs hard work to get right and can take years to show a positive return.

    Its much easier and initially gives a better return to keep costs as low as possible and claim a big bonus.

    Initially that is but while the timescale of directors (or politicians looking at the next election) might be only a few years for businesses and countries to be successful a longer term outlook must be included as well.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,015
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Another reason why WFH is awesome.

    WFH is closing door on rocketing property prices, economist says

    The era of massive house price rises is coming to an end because of the increase in working from home, rising interest rates and slower population growth, a senior economist at the government’s spending watchdog has said.

    David Miles, an economist at the Office for Budget Responsibility, said growth in house prices in the coming decades would be “much weaker” than it has been for the past 40 years.

    He said the rise in people working from home since the Covid pandemic had given people more choice about where they could live.

    “Those forces driving [house prices] up are going to be much weaker, I suspect, in the next 40 years than they have been in the past 40 years,” he told a conference held by the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence in London. “If anything, this unusual age of massive rises of house prices may be nearing an end.”

    He said that house prices had risen particularly quickly in the UK compared with other countries because of constraints on house building.

    A poll on Thursday revealed that Britain is facing a generational divide over the green belt as a majority of young people favour relaxing restrictions to allow more development.

    The Fabian Society and YouGov found 63 per cent of under-25s support building more affordable housing on the green belt, compared with 31 per cent of over-65s


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/wfh-is-closing-door-on-rocketing-property-prices-economist-says-87fxlv2g7

    To take your point off at a slight tangent, 'the green belt' and 'rural england' seem to be conflated. A quick look at a map shows that 'the green belt' is definitely not rural england - certainly not what I'd call rural anyway it's more a potential extension of suburbia of some major and middling towns and cities. Semi-rural at best.
    There's no green belt east of Cambridge, or in Devon & Cornwall for instance.
    - AONBs & national parks in these areas are of course not greenbelt.
    Good point:

    image
    Yes but but look at the greenbelt around London suburbia especially, full of Conservative v Labour marginal seats. Starmer promising to build all over it won't help him electorally there, at least not short term
    It's not universally the case that suggesting developing on Green Belt is politically unpopular, as this discussion shows.
    It will certainly generate opposition, but it will also generate support. And it might well be that most of the opposition comes from people who were never going to vote Labour anyway.

    Also, to pick up on some of the embedded points:

    - it is important to note, as Pulpstar does, that Green Belt <> rural England. Although many of the same issues about developing on the former are also relevant for the latter.

    - it is baffling, as TSE notes, that so much of what happens is reported through the fear that action x will drive down property prices. The Telegraph is particularly strange for this. There was a report yesterday that demographic change in London was driving down demand for schools, which in turn was lowering standards, which in turn was lowering property prices. The latter was presented as the thing we should all be worried about, rather than an interesting by-product of the former.
    Yougov suggests it is.

    59% of voters oppose allowing more housing to be built on the greenbelt, just 23% in favour

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/05/17/d5ba5/1
    I'm not sure people know where the greenbelt is when they answer this question.

    I think people are answering a different question here - do you want housing built on the countryside.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,410

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    WRT car washing, hand car washers simply do a better job than a machine.
    Yup, no scratches, plus the inside valet, no machine can do that.
    If you adapted the latest tech in robotics, yes, you could.

    More delicate touch than humans has been demonstrated.
    Still waiting for the robot that will load my dishwasher and put the clean crockery away afterwards.
    Cyberdyne System Model 101 is in pre production testing.

    Seriously, I think we are within about 10 years of the housemaid robot - lots of simple tasks that could help the elderly etc.

    Imagine a robot that simply follows Granny around - she can ask it to carry the shopping - and calls emergency services if she falls ill/has an accident.

    Filling the dishwasher will be a bit further down the line than something basic like that.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,015

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    Interesting point re car washing. How does the taxpayer subsidise that?
    Low paid workers claim benefits, use public services, require housing, add to pressure on transport and the environment.

    A car wash machine needs none of that.

    Remember that to be a net financial contributor you need to be way above average earnings.

    Returning to the replacement of investment and training with the low paid it has been an indictment of the UK's executive class.

    Investment in new plant, new technologies, new ideas and the necessary training and education costs money, needs hard work to get right and can take years to show a positive return.

    Its much easier and initially gives a better return to keep costs as low as possible and claim a big bonus.

    Initially that is but while the timescale of directors (or politicians looking at the next election) might be only a few years for businesses and countries to be successful a longer term outlook must be included as well.
    The interesting one is care workers. Low paid but very needed.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,357
    On the subject of home ownership, I've just come across this, reminding me that far from being obsessed by home ownershiop, Britain is looking distinctly mid-table in Europe:

  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,055
    kle4 said:

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    Your last point is very true. Hearing jobs called "low skilled" just because they don't require a PPE degree and don't pay well is one of the things that really pisses me off. It just speaks to the ignorance of the middle class people who throw the term around, and is part of the ideological discourse by which these jobs are undervalued and the people who do them underpaid.
    There are also highly paid low skill jobs, of course. Met police chief for example (at least, they always seem to recruit low skill people, so I assume it must be a low skill job). Some cabinet posts, too, apparently.
    The idea that such jobs can be filled by any clown and that there is no training for it is peculiar.

    I have long argued that politicians need a career path, with professional development, training etc.
    PPE -> Spad -> Running the country? Is that not good enough for you? :wink:
    They dont need a career path, they need better orientation around the various roles of an MP - eg reviewing legislation, representing constituents etc - and then some of incentivising them to see it as in their professional interest to do those things well, rather than rise in their careers pterty much entirely by how well they can throw out a scripted soundbite.
    No government (or opposition for that matter) wants properly trained backbenchers who can read and understand the bills they are voting on. MPs are cannon-fodder to vote as directed by the whips.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,410
    edited May 2023
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    Interesting point re car washing. How does the taxpayer subsidise that?
    Low paid workers claim benefits, use public services, require housing, add to pressure on transport and the environment.

    A car wash machine needs none of that.

    Remember that to be a net financial contributor you need to be way above average earnings.

    Returning to the replacement of investment and training with the low paid it has been an indictment of the UK's executive class.

    Investment in new plant, new technologies, new ideas and the necessary training and education costs money, needs hard work to get right and can take years to show a positive return.

    Its much easier and initially gives a better return to keep costs as low as possible and claim a big bonus.

    Initially that is but while the timescale of directors (or politicians looking at the next election) might be only a few years for businesses and countries to be successful a longer term outlook must be included as well.
    The interesting one is care workers. Low paid but very needed.
    The robots are coming there - see Japan.

    The first version of this (within a decade) will be robots to help out - keep an eye on the elderly, call for help if they have an issue, fetch a glass of water…
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 11,138

    Posted without comment.

    A decision by Greene King to trial card-only payments in some of its pubs in Notts has led to a boycott by some customers who say they will take their business elsewhere. The pub group has chosen to ditch cash in certain venues, saying the majority of payments are already made by card.

    The Travellers Rest, in Mapperley Plains, is one of the pubs involved in the trial, but some punters aren't happy. One of them, Ross Da'Bell, of Arnold, said: "We are an older couple of regulars that choose to pay cash and now, if we want to go, we have no choice. I personally think that is a mistake on their part. I should have the choice. We eat out a lot and no where else we go does this. It is likely we will go elsewhere in future. It's such a shame."


    https://www.nottinghampost.com/whats-on/food-drink/nottinghamshire-pub-goers-unhappy-greene-8442878

    Adnams have been doing this for some time. You can't go to a pub in Southwold and use cash.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,015
    Cookie said:

    On the subject of home ownership, I've just come across this, reminding me that far from being obsessed by home ownershiop, Britain is looking distinctly mid-table in Europe:

    Maps by age would be interesting though.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,055
    Cookie said:

    On the subject of home ownership, I've just come across this, reminding me that far from being obsessed by home ownershiop, Britain is looking distinctly mid-table in Europe:

    Otoh the economic powerhouse of Europe, Germany, has very low ownership rates. Maybe that is worth consideration.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. JohnL, been a long time since I learned about it and things may've changed since but I think renting was seen as both normal and had better laws in Germany compared to here.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,410

    kle4 said:

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    Your last point is very true. Hearing jobs called "low skilled" just because they don't require a PPE degree and don't pay well is one of the things that really pisses me off. It just speaks to the ignorance of the middle class people who throw the term around, and is part of the ideological discourse by which these jobs are undervalued and the people who do them underpaid.
    There are also highly paid low skill jobs, of course. Met police chief for example (at least, they always seem to recruit low skill people, so I assume it must be a low skill job). Some cabinet posts, too, apparently.
    The idea that such jobs can be filled by any clown and that there is no training for it is peculiar.

    I have long argued that politicians need a career path, with professional development, training etc.
    PPE -> Spad -> Running the country? Is that not good enough for you? :wink:
    They dont need a career path, they need better orientation around the various roles of an MP - eg reviewing legislation, representing constituents etc - and then some of incentivising them to see it as in their professional interest to do those things well, rather than rise in their careers pterty much entirely by how well they can throw out a scripted soundbite.
    No government (or opposition for that matter) wants properly trained backbenchers who can read and understand the bills they are voting on. MPs are cannon-fodder to vote as directed by the whips.
    Civil service as well - the Yes Minister joke about making sure the PM shuffles the ministers often enough to stop them learning about the Dept. they are running is based on fact.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,669
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Another reason why WFH is awesome.

    WFH is closing door on rocketing property prices, economist says

    The era of massive house price rises is coming to an end because of the increase in working from home, rising interest rates and slower population growth, a senior economist at the government’s spending watchdog has said.

    David Miles, an economist at the Office for Budget Responsibility, said growth in house prices in the coming decades would be “much weaker” than it has been for the past 40 years.

    He said the rise in people working from home since the Covid pandemic had given people more choice about where they could live.

    “Those forces driving [house prices] up are going to be much weaker, I suspect, in the next 40 years than they have been in the past 40 years,” he told a conference held by the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence in London. “If anything, this unusual age of massive rises of house prices may be nearing an end.”

    He said that house prices had risen particularly quickly in the UK compared with other countries because of constraints on house building.

    A poll on Thursday revealed that Britain is facing a generational divide over the green belt as a majority of young people favour relaxing restrictions to allow more development.

    The Fabian Society and YouGov found 63 per cent of under-25s support building more affordable housing on the green belt, compared with 31 per cent of over-65s


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/wfh-is-closing-door-on-rocketing-property-prices-economist-says-87fxlv2g7

    To take your point off at a slight tangent, 'the green belt' and 'rural england' seem to be conflated. A quick look at a map shows that 'the green belt' is definitely not rural england - certainly not what I'd call rural anyway it's more a potential extension of suburbia of some major and middling towns and cities. Semi-rural at best.
    There's no green belt east of Cambridge, or in Devon & Cornwall for instance.
    - AONBs & national parks in these areas are of course not greenbelt.
    Good point:

    image
    Yes but but look at the greenbelt around London suburbia especially, full of Conservative v Labour marginal seats. Starmer promising to build all over it won't help him electorally there, at least not short term
    It's not universally the case that suggesting developing on Green Belt is politically unpopular, as this discussion shows.
    It will certainly generate opposition, but it will also generate support. And it might well be that most of the opposition comes from people who were never going to vote Labour anyway.

    Also, to pick up on some of the embedded points:

    - it is important to note, as Pulpstar does, that Green Belt <> rural England. Although many of the same issues about developing on the former are also relevant for the latter.

    - it is baffling, as TSE notes, that so much of what happens is reported through the fear that action x will drive down property prices. The Telegraph is particularly strange for this. There was a report yesterday that demographic change in London was driving down demand for schools, which in turn was lowering standards, which in turn was lowering property prices. The latter was presented as the thing we should all be worried about, rather than an interesting by-product of the former.
    Yougov suggests it is.

    59% of voters oppose allowing more housing to be built on the greenbelt, just 23% in favour

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/05/17/d5ba5/1
    I'm not sure people know where the greenbelt is when they answer this question.

    I think people are answering a different question here - do you want housing built on the countryside.
    Given that they were 1940's socialists, the people who came up with the phrase Green Belt were marketing geniuses.

    And the question to ask about any poll of the "do you support or oppose X" is always the same. If you oppose X, what do you plan to do instead?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,055

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    WRT car washing, hand car washers simply do a better job than a machine.
    Yup, no scratches, plus the inside valet, no machine can do that.
    If you adapted the latest tech in robotics, yes, you could.

    More delicate touch than humans has been demonstrated.
    Still waiting for the robot that will load my dishwasher and put the clean crockery away afterwards.
    Cyberdyne System Model 101 is in pre production testing.

    Seriously, I think we are within about 10 years of the housemaid robot - lots of simple tasks that could help the elderly etc.

    Imagine a robot that simply follows Granny around - she can ask it to carry the shopping - and calls emergency services if she falls ill/has an accident.

    Filling the dishwasher will be a bit further down the line than something basic like that.
    Teasmades are decades old. Fall alarms, likewise. Robot vacuum cleaners, tick. Washing-up machines, that's where we came in. Newest off the block are AI-infused kitchen gadgets that will cook a meal when you throw the right ingredients at it.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,410
    A

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. JohnL, been a long time since I learned about it and things may've changed since but I think renting was seen as both normal and had better laws in Germany compared to here.

    Also the way that the system changed from feudal pre-market capitalism. In the UK and other places, owning your home/land was key part of getting out from under the system of hierarchical control.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,815
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    Interesting point re car washing. How does the taxpayer subsidise that?
    Low paid workers claim benefits, use public services, require housing, add to pressure on transport and the environment.

    A car wash machine needs none of that.

    Remember that to be a net financial contributor you need to be way above average earnings.

    Returning to the replacement of investment and training with the low paid it has been an indictment of the UK's executive class.

    Investment in new plant, new technologies, new ideas and the necessary training and education costs money, needs hard work to get right and can take years to show a positive return.

    Its much easier and initially gives a better return to keep costs as low as possible and claim a big bonus.

    Initially that is but while the timescale of directors (or politicians looking at the next election) might be only a few years for businesses and countries to be successful a longer term outlook must be included as well.
    The interesting one is care workers. Low paid but very needed.
    Care homes should be where intergenerational inequality is reversed by rich oldies transferring their wealth to the young.

    Of course if we continue to bring in care workers from the third world then costs are kept down benefitting the rich oldies and their middle aged children when they inherit.

    Now you could say that bringing in third world carers allows a wealth transfer to the poor internationally but that's no help to British care workers who are having their pay kept down.

    I wonder if the really effective way of keeping down care costs would be to transfer the sick oldies to the third world rather than bring the workers from the third world to care homes in the western world. Perhaps the Philippines could become the care home centre of the world.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,055

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. JohnL, been a long time since I learned about it and things may've changed since but I think renting was seen as both normal and had better laws in Germany compared to here.

    And rented homes also allow greater mobility. It will be interesting to see where Michael Gove's rent reforms end up.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,410

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    WRT car washing, hand car washers simply do a better job than a machine.
    Yup, no scratches, plus the inside valet, no machine can do that.
    If you adapted the latest tech in robotics, yes, you could.

    More delicate touch than humans has been demonstrated.
    Still waiting for the robot that will load my dishwasher and put the clean crockery away afterwards.
    Cyberdyne System Model 101 is in pre production testing.

    Seriously, I think we are within about 10 years of the housemaid robot - lots of simple tasks that could help the elderly etc.

    Imagine a robot that simply follows Granny around - she can ask it to carry the shopping - and calls emergency services if she falls ill/has an accident.

    Filling the dishwasher will be a bit further down the line than something basic like that.
    Teasmades are decades old. Fall alarms, likewise. Robot vacuum cleaners, tick. Washing-up machines, that's where we came in. Newest off the block are AI-infused kitchen gadgets that will cook a meal when you throw the right ingredients at it.
    One that I am seeing increasingly, is that if you are well off, you have two (or even more!) dishwashers. Dishes are taken from the clean one, put in the empty one, which is then run....
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,462

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    Didn't most people simply wash their own cars by hand a generation ago? 1980s man out on the driveway on a Sunday, buffing up the Ford Sierra.
    I still clean my own car, owing to concerns about trafficking with respect to hand car wash places. I can't say that it gets cleaned very often, though.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,015
    edited May 2023

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. JohnL, been a long time since I learned about it and things may've changed since but I think renting was seen as both normal and had better laws in Germany compared to here.

    Berlin, €750/month. 65 m squared. Bills included. 2 bed. http://alturl.com/uszr6

    OK It is the cheapest good size apartment available but I doubt you'd get a space under the stairs a la Harry Potter for that price in London.
  • Options
    FlannerFlanner Posts: 436

    Posted without comment.

    A decision by Greene King to trial card-only payments in some of its pubs in Notts has led to a boycott by some customers who say they will take their business elsewhere. The pub group has chosen to ditch cash in certain venues, saying the majority of payments are already made by card.

    The Travellers Rest, in Mapperley Plains, is one of the pubs involved in the trial, but some punters aren't happy. One of them, Ross Da'Bell, of Arnold, said: "We are an older couple of regulars that choose to pay cash and now, if we want to go, we have no choice. I personally think that is a mistake on their part. I should have the choice. We eat out a lot and no where else we go does this. It is likely we will go elsewhere in future. It's such a shame."


    https://www.nottinghampost.com/whats-on/food-drink/nottinghamshire-pub-goers-unhappy-greene-8442878

    Card payments reduces the need for bar staff to take cash, put it in the till and hand over change. It is this sort of automation killing jobs, not (or not just) AI.
    Card payments also mean a retailer doesn't have to handle cash (potentially a huge security risk and a significant inflator of insurance bills), pay, in staff time or cash collector charges, for its transport to a bank or limit its choice of banker to those specialising (at a cost) in cash handling - often a real problem for retailers in communities with no physical bank.

    The bizarre thing, though, about Greene King's trial is that all these alleged savings from banning cash create derisory benefits for the vast majority of retailers once cards are used for 95% or more of turnover. Most small retailers don't ban cash, because if it's only used by a handful of customers banning it creates no real savings (the retailer can always take the odd £100 into a bank in the nearest big town once a month) - and those trivial benefits simply aren't worth the reputational damage from turning long-standing customers away.

    But when did Greene King ever care about reputational damage? Banning cash is trivial compared to its systematic serial bankrupting of naive tenants. Not at all surprising they're pioneering the self-destructive pursuit of completely spurious automation benefits.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,739
    edited May 2023

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. JohnL, been a long time since I learned about it and things may've changed since but I think renting was seen as both normal and had better laws in Germany compared to here.

    Sounds somehow familiar, from the discussion on here yesterday.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    edited May 2023
    H&M winning hearts and minds in the US... 😂

    Lawyers representing the Duke and Duchess of Sussex have sent a letter to the Backgrid agency - but in response, the company reportedly told Harry that he cannot issue commands "as perhaps Kings can do".

    Their letter reportedly states: "We hereby demand that Backgrid immediately provide us with copies of all photos, videos, and/or films taken last night by the freelance photographers after the couple left their event and over the next several hours."

    The reason given is apparently so they can improve security in future.

    But Backgrid's lawyer appeared to mock Harry and Meghan's request as they sent a robust letter in response.

    It said: "In America, as I'm sure you know, property belongs to the owner of it: Third parties cannot just demand it be given to them, as perhaps Kings can do.

    "Perhaps you should sit down with your client and advise them that his English rules of royal prerogative to demand that the citizenry hand over their property to the Crown were rejected by this country long ago.

    "We stand by our founding fathers."


    https://news.sky.com/story/harry-and-meghan-demand-photos-from-paparazzi-chase-but-agency-refuses-12884143
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,495
    edited May 2023

    Cookie said:

    On the subject of home ownership, I've just come across this, reminding me that far from being obsessed by home ownershiop, Britain is looking distinctly mid-table in Europe:

    Otoh the economic powerhouse of Europe, Germany, has very low ownership rates. Maybe that is worth consideration.
    Norway is wealthier per head than Germany and has 80% home ownership, very high home ownership rates now in Eastern Europe too. Italy, Spain and Ireland and the Netherlands also have a higher home ownership rate than the UK
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    kjhkjh Posts: 11,138

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    WRT car washing, hand car washers simply do a better job than a machine.
    Yup, no scratches, plus the inside valet, no machine can do that.
    If you adapted the latest tech in robotics, yes, you could.

    More delicate touch than humans has been demonstrated.
    Still waiting for the robot that will load my dishwasher and put the clean crockery away afterwards.
    Have 2 dishwashers so you don't have to put them away. The lazy rich solution. No solution for loading it - sorry.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    On cash, this can cut both ways. A small businesswoman my mother knows doesn't ban card transactions but does hide the machine to perform them unless customers specifically ask to pay by card. She prefers cash because the processing fees are lower.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    It's a genuine crisis in Ireland, as opposed to the crisis manufactured by the newspapers in Britain.

    Years of not doing anything about the housing crisis means that the government can't even put up enough army tents to take asylum seekers off the streets.

    It's really a bit odd, because the government in Ireland is lurching from one crisis to another - hospitals, housing, refugees, water - but at the same time they're trying to convince the voters that the €65bn surplus they're expecting definitely can't be used to fix any of these issues.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727
    Pulpstar said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. JohnL, been a long time since I learned about it and things may've changed since but I think renting was seen as both normal and had better laws in Germany compared to here.

    Berlin, €750/month. 65 m squared. Bills included. 2 bed. http://alturl.com/uszr6

    OK It is the cheapest good size apartment available but I doubt you'd get a space under the stairs a la Harry Potter for that price in London.
    Wow, thats an amazing price with bills included.

    In London, I've seen one bed flats, nice but not luxury, with service charges of that level even if you own it "outright".
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,681

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Maybe but personally I think HMG should go on a diet, kick 500k public funded workers back in to the real economy and thereby cut spending and increase private sector output.
    Exactly , we would not notice any difference and there would be an abundance of fruit pickers and slash immigration as well.
    To quote a PB legend: "Absolute mince."
    Finest quality mince though.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,055
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    On the subject of home ownership, I've just come across this, reminding me that far from being obsessed by home ownershiop, Britain is looking distinctly mid-table in Europe:

    Otoh the economic powerhouse of Europe, Germany, has very low ownership rates. Maybe that is worth consideration.
    Norway is wealthier per head than Germany and has 80% home ownership, very high home ownership rates now in Eastern Europe too. Italy, Spain and Ireland and the Netherlands also have a higher home ownership rate than the UK
    All true but as I just said, Europe's economic and industrial powerhouse, viz Germany, has very low ownership rates. Maybe we should examine whether this is central to Germany's prosperity or just a mildly interesting quirk.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,094
    The Green Belt was created due to the absolutely massive expansion of London into the surrounding Shires from c.1900 to c.1939 - without it people feared London would simply continue to grow exponentially and swallow everything else up, hence the 1947 Town and Country Act and the checks local authorities put in the 1950s.

    Unfortunately, whilst this has successfully constrained the size of London, it has increased the cost of land as a % of new housing cost from 25% to c.70%
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    DavidL said:

    What else is he supposed to say? That his chances of winning are between slim and nil and Slim is out of town?

    Only the Express could take such comments seriously and even they struggle.

    I don’t agree that Rishi isn’t very good but it really won’t matter. The Tories are done and need to reinvent themselves once again during at least 2 Parliaments in opposition.

    Sunak isn't very good and not only will he not win the next election, he doesn't deserve to win the next election.

    The biggest problem facing this country is the severe shortage of housing for our grown population, and he's playing to the peanut gallery of NIMBY Councillors in order to shore up his base.

    Party leaders that play solely to their base ahead of addressing the serious problems the country faces simply don't deserve to win elections.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,223
    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Maybe but personally I think HMG should go on a diet, kick 500k public funded workers back in to the real economy and thereby cut spending and increase private sector output.
    Exactly , we would not notice any difference and there would be an abundance of fruit pickers and slash immigration as well.
    Elon Musk has just sacked 80% of Twitter staff and the site runs just fine. A lesson there
    It'd run fine without him too.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    WRT car washing, hand car washers simply do a better job than a machine.
    You can say the same about a lot of machine vs human comparisons - e.g. furniture, tailoring, etc - but the price difference in those is normally high enough that the human/handmade option is reduced to a small niche luxury offering.
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    Looks like Ukraine will now get F16s

    Biden says US wont block any transfers from European countries

    Positive if you're right but has any country said they will do transfers?

    We don't have F16s to give, the US isn't giving any. Which countries have an abundance of F16s they're planning on giving? I'd love it if were true, but I'm not holding my breath.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,495
    edited May 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    On the subject of home ownership, I've just come across this, reminding me that far from being obsessed by home ownershiop, Britain is looking distinctly mid-table in Europe:

    Otoh the economic powerhouse of Europe, Germany, has very low ownership rates. Maybe that is worth consideration.
    Norway is wealthier per head than Germany and has 80% home ownership, very high home ownership rates now in Eastern Europe too. Italy, Spain and Ireland and the Netherlands also have a higher home ownership rate than the UK
    All true but as I just said, Europe's economic and industrial powerhouse, viz Germany, has very low ownership rates. Maybe we should examine whether this is central to Germany's prosperity or just a mildly interesting quirk.
    Probably partly explains why the right tends to be weaker in Germany than most of the rest of Europe and the West. As most Germans rent, even the main centre right party the CDU are not much different to the LDs ideologically here and now the SPD are in government with the Greens and FDP.

    In terms of wealth per head Germany as a result though has amongst the lowest wealth in the western world (even if higher personal incomes than some western rivals). We, the US, France, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the Nordic nations and the Netherlands, Japan and Singapore, Ireland even Italy and Spain have higher wealth per head than Germany

    https://www.titlemax.com/discovery-center/lifestyle/the-50-countries-with-the-highest-median-wealth-per-capita/
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727

    The Green Belt was created due to the absolutely massive expansion of London into the surrounding Shires from c.1900 to c.1939 - without it people feared London would simply continue to grow exponentially and swallow everything else up, hence the 1947 Town and Country Act and the checks local authorities put in the 1950s.

    Unfortunately, whilst this has successfully constrained the size of London, it has increased the cost of land as a % of new housing cost from 25% to c.70%

    The green belt is a good idea but it is important to remember it was set in an arbitrary manner at a particular point in time.

    A review every 50 years or so, with a maximum change in size of +/- 3% sounds sensible to me.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,055

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    “recognises the importance of immigration” meaning what? Oversees very high rates of immigration, while appointing a Home Secretary who constantly rails against the government’s own policies?

    @KevinASchofield

    Rishi Sunak tells @ChrisMasonBBC says he REALLY wants to bring down legal immigration, but won't say by how much.

    "It will depend on how the economy is doing at any particular time and the circumstances that we're facing."
    That's what take back control actually means. Rather than hundreds of thousands of EU citizens coming here on their choice from freedom of movement we get to choose who comes and ensure that their skills meet our shortages. The position of Rumanian street beggar is definitely filled.

    Right now, as we slowly try to adapt away from a low wage, low skill economy which developed under FoM, we have a lot of shortages so we need a lot of immigrants. Which is fine. One day we won't have such shortages at which point the number of permissions granted will fall very sharply.
    Genuine question: in what sense do you think we are adapting away from 'a low wage, low skill* economy'?

    Are we going to do away with, say, care workers, building labourers, fruit pickers, hospitality staff, farm workers, cleaners, delivery drivers, etc., etc.

    (*Low wage ≠ low skill btw. Some of those jobs I have listed require quite a lot of skill, just not the sort of skill valued by society.)
    All of those jobs saw massive increases in productivity during the 20th century via investment in new technology and training in new skills.

    Yet for the last two decades that process has changed to 'get some migrants to keep the wages down' instead of investment and training.

    The most visible instance of this regressive mentality is car washing where the taxpayer now subsidises migrants to wash cars whereas a generation ago machines did it.
    WRT car washing, hand car washers simply do a better job than a machine.
    You can say the same about a lot of machine vs human comparisons - e.g. furniture, tailoring, etc - but the price difference in those is normally high enough that the human/handmade option is reduced to a small niche luxury offering.
    What is odd about tailoring is that automation has not led to cheap, precisely-fitted clothes for the mass market.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,739
    edited May 2023
    Cookie said:

    There are a lot of creative or semi-creative, and also people-orientated jobs, that are not going to be fully replaceable by AI.

    Playwright, musician, nurse, doctor, human resources manager, maitre d', chef, used car dealer, upper-class fraudster, etc.

    Playwright - yes, definitely replaceable by AI. (ChatGPT - please write a play about how life isn't fair which will make the audience go away feeling bad for being humans).
    Musician - yes, ditto.
    Nurse - probably not.
    Doctor - yes.
    HR Manager - you could probably replace one of these with a cardboard box with a smiley face drawn on it.
    Maitre d' - in all honesty, I don't think I've ever encountered one.
    Chef - not yet.
    Used car dealer - basically has already been replaced by AI. Look at the Autotrader website.
    Upper-class fraudster - I reckon AI could give it a good go.

    Hmm. At the very least there's a very long way to go. The musical efforts that are not simply extended copies have not impressed composers or music fans alike.

    I think jobs like Doctor and Chef will also not be easily replaceable by AI, because there are a lot of spontaneously improvising and/or human-relational elements in there, too. I would say it's easy to forget just how many jobs are about making other people feel at ease, heard, relaxed or better, which AI-type machines are still often a very long way from doing. I was shown a youtube video recently about some robot and AI-staffed hotels in the U.S. and South-East Asia that are being trialled. Creepy is not even vaguely adequate to describe the phenomenon.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,223

    Pulpstar said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. JohnL, been a long time since I learned about it and things may've changed since but I think renting was seen as both normal and had better laws in Germany compared to here.

    Berlin, €750/month. 65 m squared. Bills included. 2 bed. http://alturl.com/uszr6

    OK It is the cheapest good size apartment available but I doubt you'd get a space under the stairs a la Harry Potter for that price in London.
    Wow, thats an amazing price with bills included.

    In London, I've seen one bed flats, nice but not luxury, with service charges of that level even if you own it "outright".
    Berlin is great on this. How they manage it is probably worth a look.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Looks like the Germans are also worried about rules of origin for EVs:



    Sadly, Vanilla has scaled the image down. Summary: europe's battery industry is too small; continental manufacturers, as well as UK ones, want to be able to import batteries from Asia in the meantime; rules of origin scupper this.

    Should we all be buying shares in battery manufacture?

    Meanwhile, not a remainer anti-Brexit story, but maybe a don’t let your country down when you sign trade deals for your short term political benefit, scandal brewing.

    A billion-pound industry employing thousands of workers in Leave-voting areas is at risk of being wiped out by part of a post-Brexit trade deal being discussed with India, it is also predicted to raise consumer food prices and break UK limits on pesticides.

    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/business-economics/brexit-deal-could-wipe-out-thousands-of-jobs-in-leave-voting-areas-348778/
    Having tariffs on rice (milled or unmilled) when we can't grow it is nuts, full stop.

    (Also, thelondoneconomic is trash)
    I come from farming family. Farming industry knows if you cut tarrifs you are actually cutting farming incomes, is the truth.

    Correct me where wrong - which I doubt you can because your post was embarrassingly ignorant - but in this report there’s a billion dollar UK industry at stake, and levelling up jobs to protect, and that’s the main purpose for applying tariffs in the first place isn’t it - protect our industries and our workers and their incomes? And are pesticides limits and control not important too?

    Whose side are you on, it doesn’t sound like our side, the UK?

    But this isn’t really a tariff discussion, but the damage being done to UK everyday through incompetent decision making with the FTA’s the Tory government are negotiating and signing.

    You can of course call PoliticsHome trash as well, here they are clearly calling out Business and Trade under this Tory government as being an utter shambles -

    fears for firms at risk from cheap imports, that worker protections and economic security are being neglected, that wider opportunities to improve trade performance are being missed, the ‘net zero’ climate promise undermined, also, that the government is weakening its own hand in negotiations.

    https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/trade-secret-uks-aims-pursues-new-deals
    Apologies Carnforth for being sharp.

    It’s good we can bring different world views to discuss on such a liberal site as this, and it may be we have no common ground on this issue, so vive Le difference. But based on what you said, I have pigeoned holed you as having an airy fairy idealogical fantasy view of this, UKs tarrifs, not in the real world where you are taking away tariffs so taking away incomes and taking away jobs from your fellow Britains who need them.
    I added in its one of our most self serving, sleazy and incompetent governments setting up these trade arrangements for our future, which I feel is a fair comment as well.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,669

    The Green Belt was created due to the absolutely massive expansion of London into the surrounding Shires from c.1900 to c.1939 - without it people feared London would simply continue to grow exponentially and swallow everything else up, hence the 1947 Town and Country Act and the checks local authorities put in the 1950s.

    Unfortunately, whilst this has successfully constrained the size of London, it has increased the cost of land as a % of new housing cost from 25% to c.70%

    In rational economic world, perhaps what should have happened is that the finite land within the green belt was used more frugally and efficiently. More four storey terraces (see the nice bits of Hackney and Islington) rather than two storey semis.

    Looking around, that hasn't really happened. Whether that's a question of regulation or that the distribution of incentives makes it sensible for people in Zone 6 to say "don't touch my gaff", I don't know.
This discussion has been closed.