Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The Tories are becoming a byword for ungovernable – politicalbetting.com

135

Comments

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,127
    edited May 2023

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    Hmmmmm...

    We're not quite at full employment but I think we can be generous and give you that one. As for how badly paid a lot of jobs are, however...

    Hardly anybody apart from the very lucky or the very rich is raking in pay rises that keep up with inflation, so most of us are getting poorer. Nor is the fact that your bank account might (if you're lucky) pay you 2% interest rather than nothing much to write home about.

    Tell anyone who lives anywhere near a shit contaminated river or beach how much the environment is nurtured and cared for.

    As for "affordable housing"? Pull the other one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,546

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    So I presume all the people complaining about voter registration as a Tory plot will also criticise labour for proposing to give votes to 16/17 year olds and EU citizens.

    Both are cynical and self serving, but there is a huge difference.

    One enfranchises more voters; the other disenfranchises voters. One expands democratic rights; the other restricts them.

    I’m not convinced on votes for 16 year olds personally, given most are still completely financially dependent and not yet making decisions for others, but it’s a reasonable thing to look at. Why not 17 - same age as driving.
    Voter ID is a procedural question and has nothing to do with voting rights.

    You might as well argue that turnout is a measure of enfranchisement rather than inclination.
    Yes - what procedures can the Tories introduce to make it harder for people in non-Tory demographics to vote?
    Is it not frankly outrageous that people are expected to go through the palaver of going to a polling station or filling in a postal vote? The can't-be-arsed demographic is being actively suppressed and yet we call ourselves democratic!
    Dont get the online voting people going.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    edited May 2023

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,170
    Somebody please explain.


  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,245
    edited May 2023
    Kemi's failure on the EU retained law bill looks worse than I thought - I thought she had prioritised the 600 laws she eas ditching to include the most important ones, but it would appear not:

    "We are offered a list claiming to be 600 measures which will go. Most of the items on the list have already time expired or relate to EU international agreements which clearly no longer affect the UK as we are not members covered by them. There are items relating to 1990s agricultural settlements long gone, to Olympics special measures for the London games, and a range of temporary controls for things like BSE which have passed. It is tidy to clear them up but makes no difference to the costs of doing business or the freedoms in our daily lives.

    For this policy to work there needs to clear areas where unhelpful rules and charges disappear, so people and businesses can do more more easily. So Kemi should include getting rid of the carbon taxes and emission trading, the complex product specifications, many of the VAT impositions, simplify the data regime, abolish the Ports Directive, and many others often mentioned on this site. She should revisit Iain Duncan Smith’s Report on repealing EU laws which sits unimplemented."
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

    I think she's wrecked her career. It's very sad.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,024

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories should be 100% conservative and lose the election if that's what voters want, rather than trying to be slightly other-party-like so to speak.

    100% conservative does not exist, your desired flavour of it will be quite different to other conservatives.

    And if we are talking conservative rather than right wing, the conservative choice here is one Keir Starmer.
    Which is the more conservative or right wing:

    1) Lower taxes
    2) Lower borrowing

    3) Taxes on work
    4) Taxes on property

    5) Taxes on consumption
    6) Taxes on investment

    7) Higher house prices but lower home ownership
    8) Lower house prices but higher home ownership
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,456
    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    So I presume all the people complaining about voter registration as a Tory plot will also criticise labour for proposing to give votes to 16/17 year olds and EU citizens.

    Well, I am. I don't think non-citizens should have the vote. If they have settled status and want to vote they should take out naturalisation.

    The Commonwealth is a legacy arrangement and frankly an anachronism. Ireland of course is a special case.

    I'm also not sold on votes for 16 year olds. If we say they're not of sufficient capacity to drive or marry why should they be deemed ready to vote?
    No representation without taxation.

    If they are taxpayers then they should have the vote.
    Why?

    Tourists pay VAT. And fuel tax. Should they have the vote?

    Small children pay tax when buying things online. Should they?
    There is a very clear distinction between consumption taxes and income taxes. The latter is driven by the government’s taxing right on an individual’s livelihood. It is based on the status of the taxpayer. You are either resident here or somewhere else. Consumption taxes come from a very different tradition.
    Children have to pay income tax too, in the unusual eventuality that they earn more than the personal threshold.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,301
    kle4 said:

    stodge said:

    On the issue of changing the voting system, the argument for seeking wider public approval via a referendum to change the system for Westminster is a strong one.

    However, I see no similar requirement to change the system for local elections. Indeed, the system imposed by Labour for electing the London Mayor is going to be replaced without consultation by the Conservatives.

    Changing all local elections to STV might be the kind of something Davey could be suggesting in return for some limited support for a minority Labour Government - the recent local contests showed how FPTP can be as unfair to those getting most votes as it can be to those getting fewer votes. In other words, at local level, non-Conservative parties have been able to use FPTP against the Conservatives.

    The anomaly of Bracknell Forest looks as ridiculous as the anomaly of Newham and no doubt many other areas where the distribution of seats runs counter to the distribution of votes.

    The Tories have already recently changed PCC and mayoral voting (not just going to but have) and it was not even a manifesto commitment I believe - I think they claim it was because there was a line about supporting FPTP, but nothing specific. There can be no complaints about changing the system at sub national level.
    I wonder what other constitutional shortcuts are going to bite the Conservatives on the bum once they are in opposition?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,799
    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    Well I got 16.6% this year then another 2.5% added 6 months later....no bonuses so I am one
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,906
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    What did last night's Opinium say?

    Morning, Nick.

    Con 29% (+3)
    Lab 43% (-1)
    Lib Dems 11% (+1)
    Green 5% (-2)
    Reform UK 6% (-1)

    Reversion to the Opinium trend. The previous one did look like an outlier.

    I imagine tomorrow's Redfield & Wilton will show the LDs down four to six points from the 16% share in the last poll. No doubt that will attract all the usual tired old comments - IF that vote heads to the Conservatives it will be interesting, if it goes (as I suspect) to Labour, less so.

    There are outlier polls - indeed, many of them are conceivably. If you think 41-29-16 was wrong then I suspect 51-24-10 from Omnisis is also a bit off as well. The outlier is often followed by a reversion to trend in the next poll - I think we are currently at Labour at 45% or just above, Conservatives at 30% or just below and Liberal Democrats at 10% or just above. Putting a plus or minus of two points on those numbers seems to reflect where we may be - I wouldn't take the local election NEV too seriously given local elections (and especially this round) have a bigger share of vote for Independent/Residents candidates.
    Always best to look at Con+Reform and Lab+LD+Green. If you do that the weekly fluctuations become far less dramatic and the pollsters are all showing pretty much the same. It also aligns well with the outcome of the locals. The Tories v the anti-Tories is the big battle.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,104

    Jonathan said:

    Twelve hours without water here in West Sussex. Twice in three years. Southern water needs to go.

    Appalling leftie whining. We All Know that the private water companies are marvellous, and their profits (which mean donations to the Conservative party) are far more important than actually supplying you water or not covering your beaches in shit.

    How dare you!
    The water companies are shocking and need comprehensive change

    Wales water is non profit making but to nationalise the industry would cost billions

    Much stronger and unlimited fines are necessary
    Even simpler - mandate the changes you want . Water quality, discharges, leaks.

    The regulator has the power to do this.

    The political problem is the resulting increase in prices. Even if the water companies zeroed their profits, it wouldn’t pay for the discharge remediation wanted.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    edited May 2023
    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    Well I got 16.6% this year then another 2.5% added 6 months later....no bonuses so I am one
    Well then. Congratulations.
    But you are an outlier. The vast, vast majority haven't got half that.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,809

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    That's a generalisation within a generalisation. I don't know Grimsby or Walsall - Thurrock is perhaps the one with which I'm most familiar. Like everywhere else, there are areas of relative wealth and relative poverty. The caveats of wealth apply and if you are fortunate, it's probably a decent standard of living.

    Mrs Stodge and I both work but we live in London - our standard of living relative to what we earn takes us much less far than if we had the equivalent income in a provincial town, we know that - London has other advantages (and disadvantages).

    The signs have been there for a generation but places like those are the new Conservative heartland - the legacy of right-to-buy perhaps whereas areas of former Conservative strength in the south are slipping away.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,879
    edited May 2023

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    Sorry but they probably did well on the basis that the local council (currently led by the other party) is seen to not be doing a great job.

    So as happened (locally) in 2019 voters binned the old labour leadership. And in 2023 because the Tories weren’t any better voters binned a lot of the Tory councillors and replaced then with Labour ‘ green ones - the green (neither of the above) councillors are why Labour didn’t win a majority in Darlington.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    So I presume all the people complaining about voter registration as a Tory plot will also criticise labour for proposing to give votes to 16/17 year olds and EU citizens.

    Both are cynical and self serving, but there is a huge difference.

    One enfranchises more voters; the other disenfranchises voters. One expands democratic rights; the other restricts them.

    I’m not convinced on votes for 16 year olds personally, given most are still completely financially dependent and not yet making decisions for others, but it’s a reasonable thing to look at. Why not 17 - same age as driving.
    There really is no difference. EU citizens are not British citizens. They choose to work here, as do citizens of other nations. If they are British citizens fine, if not then I can see no reason, other than cynical political advantage, to offer them a vote and why just EU citizens. Why not citizens of other nations.
    Currently Commonwealth citizens can vote including those from Rwanda and Mozambique, if resident for a few weeks. I don't see why extending the vote to other permanent residents is worse.
    Begs the question why should commonwealth citizens be given that right then ?
    Typical of this banana republic, they will give any old Tom, Dick or Harry the vote to get an advantage.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,799
    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    Well I got 16.6% this year then another 2.5% added 6 months later....no bonuses so I am one
    Well then.
    You are an outlier. The vast, vast majority haven't got half that.
    My stepbrother went from 11£ an hour to 18£ an hour in a completely different industry so that is 2 of us, perhaps more common than you think therefore and three friends out of my close friends group of 5, also in different industries no longer earn min wage but 13 to 15 an hour.

    No maybe I am just amazingly unusual but I doubt it
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,809

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:

    On the issue of changing the voting system, the argument for seeking wider public approval via a referendum to change the system for Westminster is a strong one.

    However, I see no similar requirement to change the system for local elections. Indeed, the system imposed by Labour for electing the London Mayor is going to be replaced without consultation by the Conservatives.

    Changing all local elections to STV might be the kind of something Davey could be suggesting in return for some limited support for a minority Labour Government - the recent local contests showed how FPTP can be as unfair to those getting most votes as it can be to those getting fewer votes. In other words, at local level, non-Conservative parties have been able to use FPTP against the Conservatives.

    The anomaly of Bracknell Forest looks as ridiculous as the anomaly of Newham and no doubt many other areas where the distribution of seats runs counter to the distribution of votes.

    The Tories have already recently changed PCC and mayoral voting (not just going to but have) and it was not even a manifesto commitment I believe - I think they claim it was because there was a line about supporting FPTP, but nothing specific. There can be no complaints about changing the system at sub national level.
    I wonder what other constitutional shortcuts are going to bite the Conservatives on the bum once they are in opposition?
    The areas where Johnson in particular reduced Parliamentary scrutiny and increased the power of Ministers over Parliament are where I would be most concerned.

    Labour can be as centralising and authoritarian as the Conservatives - I've heard nothing from Starmer about, for example, reducing the power of Whitehall and returning substantial powers and resources to local Government.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,998
    edited May 2023
    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    I think the entire list is a spurious glass half full notion.

    There is a flip side to almost all the positives on the list, for example interest paid on savings c.f. higher mortgages. And this improved environment of which he speaks? I don't see it as we dodge potholes and all those t***s washed up on the beach. Affordable housing, huh? As the queue for crap quality private lets grows ever longer
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,184
    stodge said:

    On the issue of changing the voting system, the argument for seeking wider public approval via a referendum to change the system for Westminster is a strong one.

    However, I see no similar requirement to change the system for local elections. Indeed, the system imposed by Labour for electing the London Mayor is going to be replaced without consultation by the Conservatives.

    Changing all local elections to STV might be the kind of something Davey could be suggesting in return for some limited support for a minority Labour Government - the recent local contests showed how FPTP can be as unfair to those getting most votes as it can be to those getting fewer votes. In other words, at local level, non-Conservative parties have been able to use FPTP against the Conservatives.

    The anomaly of Bracknell Forest looks as ridiculous as the anomaly of Newham and no doubt many other areas where the distribution of seats runs counter to the distribution of votes.

    'tis what Clegg should have asked for last time.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,901

    Somebody please explain.


    Hey guy, the dude may be making an awesome point.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,152

    Kemi's failure on the EU retained law bill looks worse than I thought - I thought she had prioritised the 600 laws she eas ditching to include the most important ones, but it would appear not:

    "We are offered a list claiming to be 600 measures which will go. Most of the items on the list have already time expired or relate to EU international agreements which clearly no longer affect the UK as we are not members covered by them. There are items relating to 1990s agricultural settlements long gone, to Olympics special measures for the London games, and a range of temporary controls for things like BSE which have passed. It is tidy to clear them up but makes no difference to the costs of doing business or the freedoms in our daily lives.

    For this policy to work there needs to clear areas where unhelpful rules and charges disappear, so people and businesses can do more more easily. So Kemi should include getting rid of the carbon taxes and emission trading, the complex product specifications, many of the VAT impositions, simplify the data regime, abolish the Ports Directive, and many others often mentioned on this site. She should revisit Iain Duncan Smith’s Report on repealing EU laws which sits unimplemented."
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

    I think she's wrecked her career. It's very sad.

    Or alternatively, given the polls, taken the first steps in rehabilitating her career and the Tory party fortunes.

    When you cite John Redwood in support of your argument you know you are on the wrong side
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,138

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    In every single election you always get individual results which counter the prevailing narrative. But they do not disprove that narrative. Otherwise the Tories would have been doing well across most of the country, rather than a handful of places.

    Remember that what you think, and what you experience, is not necessarily what the majority think and experience...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    Well I got 16.6% this year then another 2.5% added 6 months later....no bonuses so I am one
    Well then.
    You are an outlier. The vast, vast majority haven't got half that.
    My stepbrother went from 11£ an hour to 18£ an hour in a completely different industry so that is 2 of us, perhaps more common than you think therefore and three friends out of my close friends group of 5, also in different industries no longer earn min wage but 13 to 15 an hour.

    No maybe I am just amazingly unusual but I doubt it
    So why does the ONS not notice this land of milk and honey for you and your mates?
    And. More pertinently, why is the government straining every sinew to prevent it spreading?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,456
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    While I agree with most of those, it is not the case that “millions” come here through illegal trafficking. The true figure there is tens of thousands, a hundredth of what you suggest. Millions come here via legal migration, if you’re talking about a multi-year period.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,245
    ...
    TOPPING said:

    Kemi's failure on the EU retained law bill looks worse than I thought - I thought she had prioritised the 600 laws she eas ditching to include the most important ones, but it would appear not:

    "We are offered a list claiming to be 600 measures which will go. Most of the items on the list have already time expired or relate to EU international agreements which clearly no longer affect the UK as we are not members covered by them. There are items relating to 1990s agricultural settlements long gone, to Olympics special measures for the London games, and a range of temporary controls for things like BSE which have passed. It is tidy to clear them up but makes no difference to the costs of doing business or the freedoms in our daily lives.

    For this policy to work there needs to clear areas where unhelpful rules and charges disappear, so people and businesses can do more more easily. So Kemi should include getting rid of the carbon taxes and emission trading, the complex product specifications, many of the VAT impositions, simplify the data regime, abolish the Ports Directive, and many others often mentioned on this site. She should revisit Iain Duncan Smith’s Report on repealing EU laws which sits unimplemented."
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

    I think she's wrecked her career. It's very sad.

    Or alternatively, given the polls, taken the first steps in rehabilitating her career and the Tory party fortunes.

    When you cite John Redwood in support of your argument you know you are on the wrong side
    What a pathetic argument. Anyone can read the content and decide for themselves whether it has merit.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,799
    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    Well I got 16.6% this year then another 2.5% added 6 months later....no bonuses so I am one
    Well then.
    You are an outlier. The vast, vast majority haven't got half that.
    My stepbrother went from 11£ an hour to 18£ an hour in a completely different industry so that is 2 of us, perhaps more common than you think therefore and three friends out of my close friends group of 5, also in different industries no longer earn min wage but 13 to 15 an hour.

    No maybe I am just amazingly unusual but I doubt it
    So why does the ONS not notice this land of milk and honey for you and your mates?
    And. More pertinently, why is the government straining every sinew to prevent it spreading?
    The ons has noticed it that is why private sector wage rises have averaged 6%, a lot of that made up by the lower end of the payscales getting more than 6% while the upper end have done worse.

    And yes the tories are trying to stop it, so will labour
  • TresTres Posts: 2,198
    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    It's quite a shock to drive through Kent, say through Maidstone and then down the Medway valley to Chatham. Hell of a contrast between the different areas.

    Edit: not speaking specifically of Maidstone and Chatham - just the contrasting wealth and poverty encountered successively on different parts of the one drive.
    Try going for a walk through Edinburgh.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,024
    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    The new rate will come into effect on 2 April 2023 and represents a 7% rise in base pay. This is on top of the increases made since July 2022, to support staff facing increased costs. As a result of this deal, over 10 months, base pay will have increased by nearly 15.5%.

    https://www.usdaw.org.uk/About-Us/News/2023/Feb/Tesco-pay-deal-Usdaw-secures-a-7-increase-in-hourl#:~:text=The new rate will come,have increased by nearly 15.5%.

    The new £11.40 per hour starting rate, which is effective from 1st July 2023, is more than 13% higher than it was a year ago, representing an investment of more than £100m in colleague pay in the last 12 months.

    https://www.aldipresscentre.co.uk/business-news/aldi-gives-all-store-colleagues-a-further-pay-rise/#:~:text=The new £11.40 per,in the last 12 months.

    Shop staff at Pret a Manger are to receive their third pay rise in a year.

    The average pay base will have increased by 19% in the twelve months up to April at the British coffee and takeaway food chain.


    https://news.sky.com/story/pret-a-manger-staff-get-third-pay-rise-in-a-year-12823349

    Now there will also be many receiving lower than inflation pay rises but its still better to get a 6% pay rise with 10% inflation than a 2% pay rise with 6% inflation.

    And I suspect it will be difficult to stop the pay rises from continuing even after inflation has fallen - there's a lot of 'catch up' to happen for many workers.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,678

    Kemi's failure on the EU retained law bill looks worse than I thought - I thought she had prioritised the 600 laws she eas ditching to include the most important ones, but it would appear not:

    "We are offered a list claiming to be 600 measures which will go. Most of the items on the list have already time expired or relate to EU international agreements which clearly no longer affect the UK as we are not members covered by them. There are items relating to 1990s agricultural settlements long gone, to Olympics special measures for the London games, and a range of temporary controls for things like BSE which have passed. It is tidy to clear them up but makes no difference to the costs of doing business or the freedoms in our daily lives.

    For this policy to work there needs to clear areas where unhelpful rules and charges disappear, so people and businesses can do more more easily. So Kemi should include getting rid of the carbon taxes and emission trading, the complex product specifications, many of the VAT impositions, simplify the data regime, abolish the Ports Directive, and many others often mentioned on this site. She should revisit Iain Duncan Smith’s Report on repealing EU laws which sits unimplemented."
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

    I think she's wrecked her career. It's very sad.

    Very sad ! Looks like the UK dodged a bullet ! She was flavour of the month because of her anti woke tirades and was promoted above her limited abilities .
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,998
    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    So I presume all the people complaining about voter registration as a Tory plot will also criticise labour for proposing to give votes to 16/17 year olds and EU citizens.

    Both are cynical and self serving, but there is a huge difference.

    One enfranchises more voters; the other disenfranchises voters. One expands democratic rights; the other restricts them.

    I’m not convinced on votes for 16 year olds personally, given most are still completely financially dependent and not yet making decisions for others, but it’s a reasonable thing to look at. Why not 17 - same age as driving.
    There really is no difference. EU citizens are not British citizens. They choose to work here, as do citizens of other nations. If they are British citizens fine, if not then I can see no reason, other than cynical political advantage, to offer them a vote and why just EU citizens. Why not citizens of other nations.
    Currently Commonwealth citizens can vote including those from Rwanda and Mozambique, if resident for a few weeks. I don't see why extending the vote to other permanent residents is worse.
    Begs the question why should commonwealth citizens be given that right then ?
    Typical of this banana republic, they will give any old Tom, Dick or Harry the vote to get an advantage.
    Like reducing the voting age for IndyRef to 16?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,809
    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    On the issue of changing the voting system, the argument for seeking wider public approval via a referendum to change the system for Westminster is a strong one.

    However, I see no similar requirement to change the system for local elections. Indeed, the system imposed by Labour for electing the London Mayor is going to be replaced without consultation by the Conservatives.

    Changing all local elections to STV might be the kind of something Davey could be suggesting in return for some limited support for a minority Labour Government - the recent local contests showed how FPTP can be as unfair to those getting most votes as it can be to those getting fewer votes. In other words, at local level, non-Conservative parties have been able to use FPTP against the Conservatives.

    The anomaly of Bracknell Forest looks as ridiculous as the anomaly of Newham and no doubt many other areas where the distribution of seats runs counter to the distribution of votes.

    'tis what Clegg should have asked for last time.
    A million times, yes.

    AV has never been Liberal Democrat policy - many LDs I knew wouldn't campaign for it and indeed it can be less proportional than FPTP in some circumstances.

    I presume the Conservatives wouldn't countenance either STV for all local elections or even having it on a referendum presumably because they were terrified of the consequences if STV won.

    Nick presumably thought he had to offer the party something on electoral reform but what he did was worse than nothing.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    Well I got 16.6% this year then another 2.5% added 6 months later....no bonuses so I am one
    Well then.
    You are an outlier. The vast, vast majority haven't got half that.
    My stepbrother went from 11£ an hour to 18£ an hour in a completely different industry so that is 2 of us, perhaps more common than you think therefore and three friends out of my close friends group of 5, also in different industries no longer earn min wage but 13 to 15 an hour.

    No maybe I am just amazingly unusual but I doubt it
    So why does the ONS not notice this land of milk and honey for you and your mates?
    And. More pertinently, why is the government straining every sinew to prevent it spreading?
    The ons has noticed it that is why private sector wage rises have averaged 6%, a lot of that made up by the lower end of the payscales getting more than 6% while the upper end have done worse.

    And yes the tories are trying to stop it, so will labour
    "Private sector wage rises average 6%."
    A real terms pay cut.
    That was my point.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,799
    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    Well I got 16.6% this year then another 2.5% added 6 months later....no bonuses so I am one
    Well then.
    You are an outlier. The vast, vast majority haven't got half that.
    My stepbrother went from 11£ an hour to 18£ an hour in a completely different industry so that is 2 of us, perhaps more common than you think therefore and three friends out of my close friends group of 5, also in different industries no longer earn min wage but 13 to 15 an hour.

    No maybe I am just amazingly unusual but I doubt it
    So why does the ONS not notice this land of milk and honey for you and your mates?
    And. More pertinently, why is the government straining every sinew to prevent it spreading?
    The ons has noticed it that is why private sector wage rises have averaged 6%, a lot of that made up by the lower end of the payscales getting more than 6% while the upper end have done worse.

    And yes the tories are trying to stop it, so will labour
    "Private sector wage rises average 6%."
    A real terms pay cut.
    That was my point.
    You failed to see the word average I notice.....a lot at the bottom are getting more than 6%....were we however still in the eu they would still be on minimum wage. Now we aren't they no longer get told "If you don't like the pay sod off there are plenty queuing up for this job"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,058
    edited May 2023

    Somebody please explain.


    Hey guy, the dude may be making an awesome point.
    English, French, Spanish and Portuguese are American languages.

    As are all the native people's languages.

    I still think the dude is being a pillock though.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,152

    ...

    TOPPING said:

    Kemi's failure on the EU retained law bill looks worse than I thought - I thought she had prioritised the 600 laws she eas ditching to include the most important ones, but it would appear not:

    "We are offered a list claiming to be 600 measures which will go. Most of the items on the list have already time expired or relate to EU international agreements which clearly no longer affect the UK as we are not members covered by them. There are items relating to 1990s agricultural settlements long gone, to Olympics special measures for the London games, and a range of temporary controls for things like BSE which have passed. It is tidy to clear them up but makes no difference to the costs of doing business or the freedoms in our daily lives.

    For this policy to work there needs to clear areas where unhelpful rules and charges disappear, so people and businesses can do more more easily. So Kemi should include getting rid of the carbon taxes and emission trading, the complex product specifications, many of the VAT impositions, simplify the data regime, abolish the Ports Directive, and many others often mentioned on this site. She should revisit Iain Duncan Smith’s Report on repealing EU laws which sits unimplemented."
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

    I think she's wrecked her career. It's very sad.

    Or alternatively, given the polls, taken the first steps in rehabilitating her career and the Tory party fortunes.

    When you cite John Redwood in support of your argument you know you are on the wrong side
    What a pathetic argument. Anyone can read the content and decide for themselves whether it has merit.
    That is my point. It has no merit. Schoolchildren can see that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809
    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    Well I got 16.6% this year then another 2.5% added 6 months later....no bonuses so I am one
    Well then.
    You are an outlier. The vast, vast majority haven't got half that.
    My stepbrother went from 11£ an hour to 18£ an hour in a completely different industry so that is 2 of us, perhaps more common than you think therefore and three friends out of my close friends group of 5, also in different industries no longer earn min wage but 13 to 15 an hour.

    No maybe I am just amazingly unusual but I doubt it
    Moving job/ industry is quite a bit different than getting an increase in your existing job/company. Not impossible but harder.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,799
    malcolmg said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    Well I got 16.6% this year then another 2.5% added 6 months later....no bonuses so I am one
    Well then.
    You are an outlier. The vast, vast majority haven't got half that.
    My stepbrother went from 11£ an hour to 18£ an hour in a completely different industry so that is 2 of us, perhaps more common than you think therefore and three friends out of my close friends group of 5, also in different industries no longer earn min wage but 13 to 15 an hour.

    No maybe I am just amazingly unusual but I doubt it
    Moving job/ industry is quite a bit different than getting an increase in your existing job/company. Not impossible but harder.
    I meant we are all in different industries, not that any of us had moved to different industries. I was merely saying it to illustrate it was not specific to one industry
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,181
    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    Well I got 16.6% this year then another 2.5% added 6 months later....no bonuses so I am one
    Well then.
    You are an outlier. The vast, vast majority haven't got half that.
    My stepbrother went from 11£ an hour to 18£ an hour in a completely different industry so that is 2 of us, perhaps more common than you think therefore and three friends out of my close friends group of 5, also in different industries no longer earn min wage but 13 to 15 an hour.

    No maybe I am just amazingly unusual but I doubt it
    So why does the ONS not notice this land of milk and honey for you and your mates?
    And. More pertinently, why is the government straining every sinew to prevent it spreading?
    The ons has noticed it that is why private sector wage rises have averaged 6%, a lot of that made up by the lower end of the payscales getting more than 6% while the upper end have done worse.

    And yes the tories are trying to stop it, so will labour
    "Private sector wage rises average 6%."
    A real terms pay cut.
    That was my point.
    After massive overspending during a global pandemic, during a huge war affecting energy and food supplies people are really, actually WORSE OFF!!

    How on earth did that happen?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,805
    edited May 2023

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    <

    Now there will also be many receiving lower than inflation pay rises but its still better to get a 6% pay rise with 10% inflation than a 2% pay rise with 6% inflation.

    Total bollocks

    If you earn £100 a week and your food bill is £100 a week

    In the former which you say is better you are £4 a week short of your food bill

    With the latter which you say is better you are £4 short of your food bill

    In year 2 you are actually worse off with the scenario you claim is better
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,906
    The smart Tory choice for next leader would be James Cleverley. He is not an ideologue.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,924

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    The new rate will come into effect on 2 April 2023 and represents a 7% rise in base pay. This is on top of the increases made since July 2022, to support staff facing increased costs. As a result of this deal, over 10 months, base pay will have increased by nearly 15.5%.

    https://www.usdaw.org.uk/About-Us/News/2023/Feb/Tesco-pay-deal-Usdaw-secures-a-7-increase-in-hourl#:~:text=The new rate will come,have increased by nearly 15.5%.

    The new £11.40 per hour starting rate, which is effective from 1st July 2023, is more than 13% higher than it was a year ago, representing an investment of more than £100m in colleague pay in the last 12 months.

    https://www.aldipresscentre.co.uk/business-news/aldi-gives-all-store-colleagues-a-further-pay-rise/#:~:text=The new £11.40 per,in the last 12 months.

    Shop staff at Pret a Manger are to receive their third pay rise in a year.

    The average pay base will have increased by 19% in the twelve months up to April at the British coffee and takeaway food chain.


    https://news.sky.com/story/pret-a-manger-staff-get-third-pay-rise-in-a-year-12823349

    Now there will also be many receiving lower than inflation pay rises but its still better to get a 6% pay rise with 10% inflation than a 2% pay rise with 6% inflation.

    And I suspect it will be difficult to stop the pay rises from continuing even after inflation has fallen - there's a lot of 'catch up' to happen for many workers.
    Your last point neatly explains why inflation isn't going anywhere - we started with inflation due to supply shortages (Covid/China/Ukraine war) and will now move on to second order effects - wage / price spiral inflation as costs rise due to increases in wages.

    I also recommend a look at https://truflation.com/ which calculates the UK's true rate of inflation at still running over 15%, having peaked at almost 22% in December of last year.

    A 13% pay rise over the last year has not kept up with inflation, particularly for poorer workers on lower wages who spend a disproportionate amount of their incomes on staple products and essentials such as heating and electricity, which have gone up more than the headline rate of inflation.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,799
    edited May 2023

    The smart Tory choice for next leader would be James Cleverley. He is not an ideologue.

    He is not an ideologue because the guy is to thick to spell ideology let alone have one
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    So I presume all the people complaining about voter registration as a Tory plot will also criticise labour for proposing to give votes to 16/17 year olds and EU citizens.

    Both are cynical and self serving, but there is a huge difference.

    One enfranchises more voters; the other disenfranchises voters. One expands democratic rights; the other restricts them.

    I’m not convinced on votes for 16 year olds personally, given most are still completely financially dependent and not yet making decisions for others, but it’s a reasonable thing to look at. Why not 17 - same age as driving.
    There really is no difference. EU citizens are not British citizens. They choose to work here, as do citizens of other nations. If they are British citizens fine, if not then I can see no reason, other than cynical political advantage, to offer them a vote and why just EU citizens. Why not citizens of other nations.
    Currently Commonwealth citizens can vote including those from Rwanda and Mozambique, if resident for a few weeks. I don't see why extending the vote to other permanent residents is worse.
    Begs the question why should commonwealth citizens be given that right then ?
    Typical of this banana republic, they will give any old Tom, Dick or Harry the vote to get an advantage.
    Like reducing the voting age for IndyRef to 16?
    Currently Scotland is part of the "country" despite me wishing it was not. Why they allowed Europeans to vote in the referendum was crazy as well.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,024

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    In every single election you always get individual results which counter the prevailing narrative. But they do not disprove that narrative. Otherwise the Tories would have been doing well across most of the country, rather than a handful of places.

    Remember that what you think, and what you experience, is not necessarily what the majority think and experience...
    Well I'm aware of that and its a mystery to me why so many blindly continue to vote for parties which treat them like crap - the Conservatives in much of the South and Labour in the inner cities.

    What the Conservatives have done by their antics is destroy trust.

    And its trust, not a rational evaluation of what's good for the individual or the country as a whole, which is the basis for much voting.

    The most dangerous thing a party can do is to make its voters think and ask why before voting.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,797
    edited May 2023

    Jonathan said:

    Twelve hours without water here in West Sussex. Twice in three years. Southern water needs to go.

    Appalling leftie whining. We All Know that the private water companies are marvellous, and their profits (which mean donations to the Conservative party) are far more important than actually supplying you water or not covering your beaches in shit.

    How dare you!
    The water companies are shocking and need comprehensive change

    Wales water is non profit making but to nationalise the industry would cost billions

    Much stronger and unlimited fines are necessary
    Even simpler - mandate the changes you want . Water quality, discharges, leaks.

    The regulator has the power to do this.

    The political problem is the resulting increase in prices. Even if the water companies zeroed their profits, it wouldn’t pay for the discharge remediation wanted.
    If we didn't privatise things because the government investing properly with tax money was unacceptable but a private company investing in very much the same manner by price rises was much more politically possible (cf. the early years of rail privatisation), then what did we do the privatisation for?

    Yes, it was a total political grift (that should be called out) to swap unpopular government spending for c'est la vie private spending, but at least there was some logic. If they can't even make good on the grift then what the hell is the point. (And just don't lecture on large corporate private sector "efficiency' - that has also broadly proved to be esoteric reasoning)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809
    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    Well I got 16.6% this year then another 2.5% added 6 months later....no bonuses so I am one
    Well then.
    You are an outlier. The vast, vast majority haven't got half that.
    My stepbrother went from 11£ an hour to 18£ an hour in a completely different industry so that is 2 of us, perhaps more common than you think therefore and three friends out of my close friends group of 5, also in different industries no longer earn min wage but 13 to 15 an hour.

    No maybe I am just amazingly unusual but I doubt it
    Moving job/ industry is quite a bit different than getting an increase in your existing job/company. Not impossible but harder.
    I meant we are all in different industries, not that any of us had moved to different industries. I was merely saying it to illustrate it was not specific to one industry
    My apologies. I have to say since last year I have also had well above inflation increase so know it is possible.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,901
    edited May 2023
    Pagan2 said:

    The smart Tory choice for next leader would be James Cleverley. He is not an ideologue.

    He is not an ideologue because the guy is to thick to spell ideology let alone have one
    Ahem.

    But I agree Cleverley is a great refutation of nominative determinism.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,102

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Twelve hours without water here in West Sussex. Twice in three years. Southern water needs to go.

    Appalling leftie whining. We All Know that the private water companies are marvellous, and their profits (which mean donations to the Conservative party) are far more important than actually supplying you water or not covering your beaches in shit.

    How dare you!
    The water companies are shocking and need comprehensive change

    Wales water is non profit making but to nationalise the industry would cost billions

    Much stronger and unlimited fines are necessary
    No, we need to nationalise. It's got beyond fines. Trust is gone.
    Between 15 and 90 billion according to Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/02/water-renationalised-without-compensation-activists-shareholders-england?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    Regulate them far more tightly, as soon as possible.
    Would, of course, also make them cheaper to nationalise should that become necessary.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,021
    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    Well I got 16.6% this year then another 2.5% added 6 months later....no bonuses so I am one
    Well then.
    You are an outlier. The vast, vast majority haven't got half that.
    My stepbrother went from 11£ an hour to 18£ an hour in a completely different industry so that is 2 of us, perhaps more common than you think therefore and three friends out of my close friends group of 5, also in different industries no longer earn min wage but 13 to 15 an hour.

    No maybe I am just amazingly unusual but I doubt it
    So why does the ONS not notice this land of milk and honey for you and your mates?
    And. More pertinently, why is the government straining every sinew to prevent it spreading?
    What the ONS is measuring is the average spread across the population. Within that group there will always be significant numbers who have done better than average and significant numbers who have done worse. I, for example, have reduced my income by roughly 30% in the short term and will probably have my income fall by nearer 50% over the next 2 years.

    The average increase is meaningful in that it gives us a macro grip of where demand is likely to go. It is surprising that it has managed to be sustained so far. Either the average is not capturing all additional income or we are collectively dipping into our almost non existent savings. But it doesn't tell us much about how individuals are faring and it is misleading to assume that it does.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,024

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    <

    Now there will also be many receiving lower than inflation pay rises but its still better to get a 6% pay rise with 10% inflation than a 2% pay rise with 6% inflation.

    Total bollocks

    If you earn £100 a week and your food bill is £100 a week

    In the former which you say is better you are £4 a week short of your food bill

    With the latter which you say is better you are £4 short of your food bill

    In year 2 you are actually worse off with the scenario you claim is better
    Apologies.

    I meant to say:

    Now there will also be many receiving lower than inflation pay rises but its still better to get a 6% pay rise with 10% inflation than a 2% pay rise with 10% inflation.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    Well I got 16.6% this year then another 2.5% added 6 months later....no bonuses so I am one
    Well then.
    You are an outlier. The vast, vast majority haven't got half that.
    My stepbrother went from 11£ an hour to 18£ an hour in a completely different industry so that is 2 of us, perhaps more common than you think therefore and three friends out of my close friends group of 5, also in different industries no longer earn min wage but 13 to 15 an hour.

    No maybe I am just amazingly unusual but I doubt it
    So why does the ONS not notice this land of milk and honey for you and your mates?
    And. More pertinently, why is the government straining every sinew to prevent it spreading?
    What the ONS is measuring is the average spread across the population. Within that group there will always be significant numbers who have done better than average and significant numbers who have done worse. I, for example, have reduced my income by roughly 30% in the short term and will probably have my income fall by nearer 50% over the next 2 years.

    The average increase is meaningful in that it gives us a macro grip of where demand is likely to go. It is surprising that it has managed to be sustained so far. Either the average is not capturing all additional income or we are collectively dipping into our almost non existent savings. But it doesn't tell us much about how individuals are faring and it is misleading to assume that it does.
    Is your income reduction your personal choice or forced on you.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,102

    Jonathan said:

    Twelve hours without water here in West Sussex. Twice in three years. Southern water needs to go.

    Appalling leftie whining. We All Know that the private water companies are marvellous, and their profits (which mean donations to the Conservative party) are far more important than actually supplying you water or not covering your beaches in shit.

    How dare you!
    The water companies are shocking and need comprehensive change

    Wales water is non profit making but to nationalise the industry would cost billions

    Much stronger and unlimited fines are necessary
    Even simpler - mandate the changes you want . Water quality, discharges, leaks.

    The regulator has the power to do this.

    The political problem is the resulting increase in prices. Even if the water companies zeroed their profits, it wouldn’t pay for the discharge remediation wanted.
    It would make a significant difference.

    The argument is often advanced that the regulator ought not to be stricter, as it wouldn't be a panacea. It's a rubbish argument.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,024

    The smart Tory choice for next leader would be James Cleverley. He is not an ideologue.

    He seems to be sensible and hard working.

    His low media profile suggests he's neither a loudmouth nor disaster prone.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    Well I got 16.6% this year then another 2.5% added 6 months later....no bonuses so I am one
    Well then.
    You are an outlier. The vast, vast majority haven't got half that.
    My stepbrother went from 11£ an hour to 18£ an hour in a completely different industry so that is 2 of us, perhaps more common than you think therefore and three friends out of my close friends group of 5, also in different industries no longer earn min wage but 13 to 15 an hour.

    No maybe I am just amazingly unusual but I doubt it
    So why does the ONS not notice this land of milk and honey for you and your mates?
    And. More pertinently, why is the government straining every sinew to prevent it spreading?
    What the ONS is measuring is the average spread across the population. Within that group there will always be significant numbers who have done better than average and significant numbers who have done worse. I, for example, have reduced my income by roughly 30% in the short term and will probably have my income fall by nearer 50% over the next 2 years.

    The average increase is meaningful in that it gives us a macro grip of where demand is likely to go. It is surprising that it has managed to be sustained so far. Either the average is not capturing all additional income or we are collectively dipping into our almost non existent savings. But it doesn't tell us much about how individuals are faring and it is misleading to assume that it does.
    All very true.
    But the original point was that the Tories did OK in a small, select group of places partly because of pay rises.
    I find it hard to believe that in any Council area more individuals have experienced above inflation pay rises than below.
    There's all the government employees for a start. And there are a much higher percentage of those in the places named than average.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,102
    TOPPING said:

    ...

    TOPPING said:

    Kemi's failure on the EU retained law bill looks worse than I thought - I thought she had prioritised the 600 laws she eas ditching to include the most important ones, but it would appear not:

    "We are offered a list claiming to be 600 measures which will go. Most of the items on the list have already time expired or relate to EU international agreements which clearly no longer affect the UK as we are not members covered by them. There are items relating to 1990s agricultural settlements long gone, to Olympics special measures for the London games, and a range of temporary controls for things like BSE which have passed. It is tidy to clear them up but makes no difference to the costs of doing business or the freedoms in our daily lives.

    For this policy to work there needs to clear areas where unhelpful rules and charges disappear, so people and businesses can do more more easily. So Kemi should include getting rid of the carbon taxes and emission trading, the complex product specifications, many of the VAT impositions, simplify the data regime, abolish the Ports Directive, and many others often mentioned on this site. She should revisit Iain Duncan Smith’s Report on repealing EU laws which sits unimplemented."
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

    I think she's wrecked her career. It's very sad.

    Or alternatively, given the polls, taken the first steps in rehabilitating her career and the Tory party fortunes.

    When you cite John Redwood in support of your argument you know you are on the wrong side
    What a pathetic argument. Anyone can read the content and decide for themselves whether it has merit.
    That is my point. It has no merit. Schoolchildren can see that.
    There's a delicious irony in Badenoch potentially ruining her political chances by doing something that's obviously sensible.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,021
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    Well I got 16.6% this year then another 2.5% added 6 months later....no bonuses so I am one
    Well then.
    You are an outlier. The vast, vast majority haven't got half that.
    My stepbrother went from 11£ an hour to 18£ an hour in a completely different industry so that is 2 of us, perhaps more common than you think therefore and three friends out of my close friends group of 5, also in different industries no longer earn min wage but 13 to 15 an hour.

    No maybe I am just amazingly unusual but I doubt it
    So why does the ONS not notice this land of milk and honey for you and your mates?
    And. More pertinently, why is the government straining every sinew to prevent it spreading?
    What the ONS is measuring is the average spread across the population. Within that group there will always be significant numbers who have done better than average and significant numbers who have done worse. I, for example, have reduced my income by roughly 30% in the short term and will probably have my income fall by nearer 50% over the next 2 years.

    The average increase is meaningful in that it gives us a macro grip of where demand is likely to go. It is surprising that it has managed to be sustained so far. Either the average is not capturing all additional income or we are collectively dipping into our almost non existent savings. But it doesn't tell us much about how individuals are faring and it is misleading to assume that it does.
    Is your income reduction your personal choice or forced on you.
    Personal choice. I chose to become a full time Advocate Depute. It pays roughly half what I was earning before as junior counsel but it is an important and worthwhile job that gives me great job satisfaction.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,024
    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    The new rate will come into effect on 2 April 2023 and represents a 7% rise in base pay. This is on top of the increases made since July 2022, to support staff facing increased costs. As a result of this deal, over 10 months, base pay will have increased by nearly 15.5%.

    https://www.usdaw.org.uk/About-Us/News/2023/Feb/Tesco-pay-deal-Usdaw-secures-a-7-increase-in-hourl#:~:text=The new rate will come,have increased by nearly 15.5%.

    The new £11.40 per hour starting rate, which is effective from 1st July 2023, is more than 13% higher than it was a year ago, representing an investment of more than £100m in colleague pay in the last 12 months.

    https://www.aldipresscentre.co.uk/business-news/aldi-gives-all-store-colleagues-a-further-pay-rise/#:~:text=The new £11.40 per,in the last 12 months.

    Shop staff at Pret a Manger are to receive their third pay rise in a year.

    The average pay base will have increased by 19% in the twelve months up to April at the British coffee and takeaway food chain.


    https://news.sky.com/story/pret-a-manger-staff-get-third-pay-rise-in-a-year-12823349

    Now there will also be many receiving lower than inflation pay rises but its still better to get a 6% pay rise with 10% inflation than a 2% pay rise with 6% inflation.

    And I suspect it will be difficult to stop the pay rises from continuing even after inflation has fallen - there's a lot of 'catch up' to happen for many workers.
    Your last point neatly explains why inflation isn't going anywhere - we started with inflation due to supply shortages (Covid/China/Ukraine war) and will now move on to second order effects - wage / price spiral inflation as costs rise due to increases in wages.

    I also recommend a look at https://truflation.com/ which calculates the UK's true rate of inflation at still running over 15%, having peaked at almost 22% in December of last year.

    A 13% pay rise over the last year has not kept up with inflation, particularly for poorer workers on lower wages who spend a disproportionate amount of their incomes on staple products and essentials such as heating and electricity, which have gone up more than the headline rate of inflation.
    It all averages out so while some will have a higher personal inflation rate others will have a lower one.

    And a general increase in consumer prices caused by higher pay rises for the low paid is not a bad thing.

    Rather its a much needed wealth transfer from non-workers to workers, from the old to the young and from the rich to the poor.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,004
    Yes, thinking that they'll be hammered at the election the Tories are focussed on fighting amongst themselves over what comes after - thus making absolutely certain they will be hammered.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,021
    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    Well I got 16.6% this year then another 2.5% added 6 months later....no bonuses so I am one
    Well then.
    You are an outlier. The vast, vast majority haven't got half that.
    My stepbrother went from 11£ an hour to 18£ an hour in a completely different industry so that is 2 of us, perhaps more common than you think therefore and three friends out of my close friends group of 5, also in different industries no longer earn min wage but 13 to 15 an hour.

    No maybe I am just amazingly unusual but I doubt it
    So why does the ONS not notice this land of milk and honey for you and your mates?
    And. More pertinently, why is the government straining every sinew to prevent it spreading?
    What the ONS is measuring is the average spread across the population. Within that group there will always be significant numbers who have done better than average and significant numbers who have done worse. I, for example, have reduced my income by roughly 30% in the short term and will probably have my income fall by nearer 50% over the next 2 years.

    The average increase is meaningful in that it gives us a macro grip of where demand is likely to go. It is surprising that it has managed to be sustained so far. Either the average is not capturing all additional income or we are collectively dipping into our almost non existent savings. But it doesn't tell us much about how individuals are faring and it is misleading to assume that it does.
    All very true.
    But the original point was that the Tories did OK in a small, select group of places partly because of pay rises.
    I find it hard to believe that in any Council area more individuals have experienced above inflation pay rises than below.
    There's all the government employees for a start. And there are a much higher percentage of those in the places named than average.
    I would tend to agree and the larger the place the more the average should be relevant. My point was that what @Pagan2 was saying was in no way inconsistent with the ONS figures.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,544
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    So I presume all the people complaining about voter registration as a Tory plot will also criticise labour for proposing to give votes to 16/17 year olds and EU citizens.

    Well, I am. I don't think non-citizens should have the vote. If they have settled status and want to vote they should take out naturalisation.

    The Commonwealth is a legacy arrangement and frankly an anachronism. Ireland of course is a special case.

    I'm also not sold on votes for 16 year olds. If we say they're not of sufficient capacity to drive or marry why should they be deemed ready to vote?
    So, if they pass their driving license at 17 they should be able to vote then?
    What about marry?
    Also, people can marry at 16 with the approval of their parents. Will the same stipulation apply to voting?
    Incidentally, this comment is incorrect. The minimum legal age of marriage in England and Wales is 18.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/legal-age-of-marriage-in-england-and-wales-rises-to-18#:~:text=The age of 18 is,forced marriage in our society.

    If we are to lower the voting age, surely we should reverse that law?
    @Richard_Tyndall flagged that up in an article last year, I think. I was surprised, although I think I shouldn't have been. It raises the scenario of a girl who can give birth at 16 but not marry the father until 18. The line between what is a child and what is an adult is becoming increasingly blurred in England, to the benefit of neither, and I think as pensioners become the dominant force in politics such blurring will continue.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,102
    I can see why he wants a new CEO.

    The Turkish government asked Twitter to censor its opponents right before an election and @elonmusk complied — should generate some interesting Twitter Files reporting.
    https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1657407941828395010

    Did your brain fall out of your head, Yglesias? The choice is have Twitter throttled in its entirety or limit access to some tweets. Which one do you want?
    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1657422401754259461

    What Wikipedia did: we stood strong for our principles and fought to the Supreme Court of Turkey and won. This is what it means to treat freedom of expression as a principle rather than a slogan.
    https://twitter.com/jimmy_wales/status/1657494022741426180

    Twitter used to routinely challenge Turkey’s takedown requests

    Erdogan actually had Twitter banned in Turkey in 2014 for refusing to comply. (the courts later ended the ban.)

    but that was on the “censorship” version of Twitter, not this new “free speech” one

    https://twitter.com/MattBinder/status/1657371482928869376
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,665

    Kemi's failure on the EU retained law bill looks worse than I thought - I thought she had prioritised the 600 laws she eas ditching to include the most important ones, but it would appear not:

    "We are offered a list claiming to be 600 measures which will go. Most of the items on the list have already time expired or relate to EU international agreements which clearly no longer affect the UK as we are not members covered by them. There are items relating to 1990s agricultural settlements long gone, to Olympics special measures for the London games, and a range of temporary controls for things like BSE which have passed. It is tidy to clear them up but makes no difference to the costs of doing business or the freedoms in our daily lives.

    For this policy to work there needs to clear areas where unhelpful rules and charges disappear, so people and businesses can do more more easily. So Kemi should include getting rid of the carbon taxes and emission trading, the complex product specifications, many of the VAT impositions, simplify the data regime, abolish the Ports Directive, and many others often mentioned on this site. She should revisit Iain Duncan Smith’s Report on repealing EU laws which sits unimplemented."
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

    I think she's wrecked her career. It's very sad.

    Kudos to the Business Secretary if she has actually started listening to what Business actually wants, unlike her predecessors. In general they want harmonised carbon taxes, product specifications, data privacy rules because that facilitates trade and benefits their bottom line.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,184
    edited May 2023
    stodge said:

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    On the issue of changing the voting system, the argument for seeking wider public approval via a referendum to change the system for Westminster is a strong one.

    However, I see no similar requirement to change the system for local elections. Indeed, the system imposed by Labour for electing the London Mayor is going to be replaced without consultation by the Conservatives.

    Changing all local elections to STV might be the kind of something Davey could be suggesting in return for some limited support for a minority Labour Government - the recent local contests showed how FPTP can be as unfair to those getting most votes as it can be to those getting fewer votes. In other words, at local level, non-Conservative parties have been able to use FPTP against the Conservatives.

    The anomaly of Bracknell Forest looks as ridiculous as the anomaly of Newham and no doubt many other areas where the distribution of seats runs counter to the distribution of votes.

    'tis what Clegg should have asked for last time.
    A million times, yes.

    AV has never been Liberal Democrat policy - many LDs I knew wouldn't campaign for it and indeed it can be less proportional than FPTP in some circumstances.

    I presume the Conservatives wouldn't countenance either STV for all local elections or even having it on a referendum presumably because they were terrified of the consequences if STV won.

    Nick presumably thought he had to offer the party something on electoral reform but what he did was worse than nothing.
    They were fixated on the risk to the MPs from being hit by the usual curse of being the junior coalition partner, and naively thought that AV would help them with Labour second preferences (rather overlooking that the coalition might make Labour voters think twice...) and also naively thought Cameron would keep his promise that both he and the Conservative Party HQ would not campaign against it in the referendum, and also naively overlooked that by the time the referendum came around, they might be rather less popular than in 2010....

    And, of course, most LibDems didn't want it in the first place, as you say.

    Apart from those minor oversights it was a genius plan.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,901
    The Right in full blown frighten the horses mode. Fwiw I would happily bet against anything resembling electoral reform happening after whatever GE scenario takes place.


  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,301
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    ...

    TOPPING said:

    Kemi's failure on the EU retained law bill looks worse than I thought - I thought she had prioritised the 600 laws she eas ditching to include the most important ones, but it would appear not:

    "We are offered a list claiming to be 600 measures which will go. Most of the items on the list have already time expired or relate to EU international agreements which clearly no longer affect the UK as we are not members covered by them. There are items relating to 1990s agricultural settlements long gone, to Olympics special measures for the London games, and a range of temporary controls for things like BSE which have passed. It is tidy to clear them up but makes no difference to the costs of doing business or the freedoms in our daily lives.

    For this policy to work there needs to clear areas where unhelpful rules and charges disappear, so people and businesses can do more more easily. So Kemi should include getting rid of the carbon taxes and emission trading, the complex product specifications, many of the VAT impositions, simplify the data regime, abolish the Ports Directive, and many others often mentioned on this site. She should revisit Iain Duncan Smith’s Report on repealing EU laws which sits unimplemented."
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

    I think she's wrecked her career. It's very sad.

    Or alternatively, given the polls, taken the first steps in rehabilitating her career and the Tory party fortunes.

    When you cite John Redwood in support of your argument you know you are on the wrong side
    What a pathetic argument. Anyone can read the content and decide for themselves whether it has merit.
    That is my point. It has no merit. Schoolchildren can see that.
    There's a delicious irony in Badenoch potentially ruining her political chances by doing something that's obviously sensible.
    Question is how much that was by choice, and how much it was simply being mugged by reality. Reality being something that John Redwood (ministerial career ended getting on for thirty years ago) doesn't have to bother himself with in the same way.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,021
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    ...

    TOPPING said:

    Kemi's failure on the EU retained law bill looks worse than I thought - I thought she had prioritised the 600 laws she eas ditching to include the most important ones, but it would appear not:

    "We are offered a list claiming to be 600 measures which will go. Most of the items on the list have already time expired or relate to EU international agreements which clearly no longer affect the UK as we are not members covered by them. There are items relating to 1990s agricultural settlements long gone, to Olympics special measures for the London games, and a range of temporary controls for things like BSE which have passed. It is tidy to clear them up but makes no difference to the costs of doing business or the freedoms in our daily lives.

    For this policy to work there needs to clear areas where unhelpful rules and charges disappear, so people and businesses can do more more easily. So Kemi should include getting rid of the carbon taxes and emission trading, the complex product specifications, many of the VAT impositions, simplify the data regime, abolish the Ports Directive, and many others often mentioned on this site. She should revisit Iain Duncan Smith’s Report on repealing EU laws which sits unimplemented."
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

    I think she's wrecked her career. It's very sad.

    Or alternatively, given the polls, taken the first steps in rehabilitating her career and the Tory party fortunes.

    When you cite John Redwood in support of your argument you know you are on the wrong side
    What a pathetic argument. Anyone can read the content and decide for themselves whether it has merit.
    That is my point. It has no merit. Schoolchildren can see that.
    There's a delicious irony in Badenoch potentially ruining her political chances by doing something that's obviously sensible.
    The focus of this is absurd and frankly juvenile. The importance is not where a law or regulation came from but its utility and disutility in that it is interfering with useful activities.

    The only difference Brexit makes in this context is that it is now possible to repeal some regulations that were previously EU law and untouchable by the UK Parliament. But we have plenty of daft regulations of our own. It seems to me that Kemi is recognising that reality and I personally would give her credit for that rather than bemoaning her Brexiteer credentials which are now irrelevant.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,104
    Pro_Rata said:

    Jonathan said:

    Twelve hours without water here in West Sussex. Twice in three years. Southern water needs to go.

    Appalling leftie whining. We All Know that the private water companies are marvellous, and their profits (which mean donations to the Conservative party) are far more important than actually supplying you water or not covering your beaches in shit.

    How dare you!
    The water companies are shocking and need comprehensive change

    Wales water is non profit making but to nationalise the industry would cost billions

    Much stronger and unlimited fines are necessary
    Even simpler - mandate the changes you want . Water quality, discharges, leaks.

    The regulator has the power to do this.

    The political problem is the resulting increase in prices. Even if the water companies zeroed their profits, it wouldn’t pay for the discharge remediation wanted.
    If we didn't privatise things because the government investing properly with tax money was unacceptable but a private company investing in very much the same manner by price rises was much more politically possible (cf. the early years of rail
    privatisation), then what did we do the privatisation for?

    Yes, it was a total political grift (that should be called out) to swap unpopular government spending for c'est la via private spending, but at least there was some logic. If they can't even make good on the grift then what c the hell is the point. (And just don't lecture on large corporate private sector "efficiency' - that has also broadly proved to be esoteric reasoning)
    Politics moves in 1 election cycles. Which meant investment in nationalised industries that would come good after the next election rarely happened.

    After water privatisation, for example, there was a massive increase in investment to meet higher water quality standards for tap water. This had been put off for years by the Treasury vetoing it.

    The Thames Super Sewer is a case to look at. Everyone was “yay”, until the fact that prices would go up to pay for it was noticed. In that case the government refused to block the price increases.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,780

    Somebody please explain.


    Hey guy, the dude may be making an awesome point.
    Yeh, it's just totes amazeballs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,102
    A Texas man, 22, has been arrested for fatally shooting his 26-year-old girlfriend, Gabriella Gonzalez, after she traveled to Colorado to get an abortion. The man killed her in a Dallas parking lot the day after she returned.
    https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1657124079143473161
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,152
    edited May 2023
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    ...

    TOPPING said:

    Kemi's failure on the EU retained law bill looks worse than I thought - I thought she had prioritised the 600 laws she eas ditching to include the most important ones, but it would appear not:

    "We are offered a list claiming to be 600 measures which will go. Most of the items on the list have already time expired or relate to EU international agreements which clearly no longer affect the UK as we are not members covered by them. There are items relating to 1990s agricultural settlements long gone, to Olympics special measures for the London games, and a range of temporary controls for things like BSE which have passed. It is tidy to clear them up but makes no difference to the costs of doing business or the freedoms in our daily lives.

    For this policy to work there needs to clear areas where unhelpful rules and charges disappear, so people and businesses can do more more easily. So Kemi should include getting rid of the carbon taxes and emission trading, the complex product specifications, many of the VAT impositions, simplify the data regime, abolish the Ports Directive, and many others often mentioned on this site. She should revisit Iain Duncan Smith’s Report on repealing EU laws which sits unimplemented."
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

    I think she's wrecked her career. It's very sad.

    Or alternatively, given the polls, taken the first steps in rehabilitating her career and the Tory party fortunes.

    When you cite John Redwood in support of your argument you know you are on the wrong side
    What a pathetic argument. Anyone can read the content and decide for themselves whether it has merit.
    That is my point. It has no merit. Schoolchildren can see that.
    There's a delicious irony in Badenoch potentially ruining her political chances by doing something that's obviously sensible.
    The focus of this is absurd and frankly juvenile. The importance is not where a law or regulation came from but its utility and disutility in that it is interfering with useful activities.

    The only difference Brexit makes in this context is that it is now possible to repeal some regulations that were previously EU law and untouchable by the UK Parliament. But we have plenty of daft regulations of our own. It seems to me that Kemi is recognising that reality and I personally would give her credit for that rather than bemoaning her Brexiteer credentials which are now irrelevant.
    Are you trying to tell me that much if not all of the Brexit appeal was both illusory and damaging if ever implemented.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,672

    If Starmer does introduce a PR referendum without it being in his manifesto that would be a green light for any other party to do likewise with electoral reform. It would not be a wise precedent to set.

    Edited extra bit: now I think of it, there was the STV referendum. That was unique, having been something nobody wanted. I wasn't a fan of that either.

    Correction, Mr Dancer. You are thinking of the AV referendum. True that very few people wanted that. But when we talk of STV we usually think of multi-member constituencies. This gives a more or less proportional result, which AV most certainly does not.

    The only thing to be said in favour of AV is that electors no longer have to guess which party is the main challenger to the incumbent Tories, since their votes can move on to the second preferences if their first peference does not succeed.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,456
    Nigelb said:

    A Texas man, 22, has been arrested for fatally shooting his 26-year-old girlfriend, Gabriella Gonzalez, after she traveled to Colorado to get an abortion. The man killed her in a Dallas parking lot the day after she returned.
    https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1657124079143473161

    How long before the Texas Governor says he’ll pardon him?
  • RichardrRichardr Posts: 81

    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    The new rate will come into effect on 2 April 2023 and represents a 7% rise in base pay. This is on top of the increases made since July 2022, to support staff facing increased costs. As a result of this deal, over 10 months, base pay will have increased by nearly 15.5%.

    https://www.usdaw.org.uk/About-Us/News/2023/Feb/Tesco-pay-deal-Usdaw-secures-a-7-increase-in-hourl#:~:text=The new rate will come,have increased by nearly 15.5%.

    The new £11.40 per hour starting rate, which is effective from 1st July 2023, is more than 13% higher than it was a year ago, representing an investment of more than £100m in colleague pay in the last 12 months.

    https://www.aldipresscentre.co.uk/business-news/aldi-gives-all-store-colleagues-a-further-pay-rise/#:~:text=The new £11.40 per,in the last 12 months.

    Shop staff at Pret a Manger are to receive their third pay rise in a year.

    The average pay base will have increased by 19% in the twelve months up to April at the British coffee and takeaway food chain.


    https://news.sky.com/story/pret-a-manger-staff-get-third-pay-rise-in-a-year-12823349

    Now there will also be many receiving lower than inflation pay rises but its still better to get a 6% pay rise with 10% inflation than a 2% pay rise with 6% inflation.

    And I suspect it will be difficult to stop the pay rises from continuing even after inflation has fallen - there's a lot of 'catch up' to happen for many workers.
    Your last point neatly explains why inflation isn't going anywhere - we started with inflation due to supply shortages (Covid/China/Ukraine war) and will now move on to second order effects - wage / price spiral inflation as costs rise due to increases in wages.

    I also recommend a look at https://truflation.com/ which calculates the UK's true rate of inflation at still running over 15%, having peaked at almost 22% in December of last year.

    A 13% pay rise over the last year has not kept up with inflation, particularly for poorer workers on lower wages who spend a disproportionate amount of their incomes on staple products and essentials such as heating and electricity, which have gone up more than the headline rate of inflation.
    It all averages out so while some will have a higher personal inflation rate others will have a lower one.

    And a general increase in consumer prices caused by higher pay rises for the low paid is not a bad thing.

    Rather its a much needed wealth transfer from non-workers to workers, from the old to the young and from the rich to the poor.
    Albeit the triple lock will affect that of course
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,024
    Does anyone know why you need a tin opener on the supermarket cheap range but the supermarket standard range have a ring pull ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,805
    WTAF??????

    @SkyNews

    Brexit stopped Ukraine invasion from succeeding, Jacob Rees-Mogg says
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    The way back for the Tories is quite simple: build houses.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,456

    Does anyone know why you need a tin opener on the supermarket cheap range but the supermarket standard range have a ring pull ?

    Ring pulls add materials costs?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,021
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    ...

    TOPPING said:

    Kemi's failure on the EU retained law bill looks worse than I thought - I thought she had prioritised the 600 laws she eas ditching to include the most important ones, but it would appear not:

    "We are offered a list claiming to be 600 measures which will go. Most of the items on the list have already time expired or relate to EU international agreements which clearly no longer affect the UK as we are not members covered by them. There are items relating to 1990s agricultural settlements long gone, to Olympics special measures for the London games, and a range of temporary controls for things like BSE which have passed. It is tidy to clear them up but makes no difference to the costs of doing business or the freedoms in our daily lives.

    For this policy to work there needs to clear areas where unhelpful rules and charges disappear, so people and businesses can do more more easily. So Kemi should include getting rid of the carbon taxes and emission trading, the complex product specifications, many of the VAT impositions, simplify the data regime, abolish the Ports Directive, and many others often mentioned on this site. She should revisit Iain Duncan Smith’s Report on repealing EU laws which sits unimplemented."
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

    I think she's wrecked her career. It's very sad.

    Or alternatively, given the polls, taken the first steps in rehabilitating her career and the Tory party fortunes.

    When you cite John Redwood in support of your argument you know you are on the wrong side
    What a pathetic argument. Anyone can read the content and decide for themselves whether it has merit.
    That is my point. It has no merit. Schoolchildren can see that.
    There's a delicious irony in Badenoch potentially ruining her political chances by doing something that's obviously sensible.
    The focus of this is absurd and frankly juvenile. The importance is not where a law or regulation came from but its utility and disutility in that it is interfering with useful activities.

    The only difference Brexit makes in this context is that it is now possible to repeal some regulations that were previously EU law and untouchable by the UK Parliament. But we have plenty of daft regulations of our own. It seems to me that Kemi is recognising that reality and I personally would give her credit for that rather than bemoaning her Brexiteer credentials which are now irrelevant.
    Are you trying to tell me that much if not all of the Brexit appeal was both illusory and damaging if ever implemented.
    No, not at all. I am saying that the correct focus for a successful Brexit is to focus on the opportunities and freedom of manoeuvre that it gives us to decide what is in our best interests rather than having to take a rule book from the EU that all too often had been written for someone else's interests.

    But that argument has been won. What we need to do now is focus on what we need to do to encourage investment and training in the UK, to make the UK market as attractive as possible, to remove unnecessary paternalistic regulation but ensure adequate consumer protection. In short get on with governing in our interests without wasting time arguing about or hiding behind some EU bogeyman which largely, if not completely, existed in our own imaginations and our politicians book of useful excuses.

    If that is what Kemi is doing then she will go up in my estimation.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,245
    edited May 2023
    TOPPING said:

    ...

    TOPPING said:

    Kemi's failure on the EU retained law bill looks worse than I thought - I thought she had prioritised the 600 laws she eas ditching to include the most important ones, but it would appear not:

    "We are offered a list claiming to be 600 measures which will go. Most of the items on the list have already time expired or relate to EU international agreements which clearly no longer affect the UK as we are not members covered by them. There are items relating to 1990s agricultural settlements long gone, to Olympics special measures for the London games, and a range of temporary controls for things like BSE which have passed. It is tidy to clear them up but makes no difference to the costs of doing business or the freedoms in our daily lives.

    For this policy to work there needs to clear areas where unhelpful rules and charges disappear, so people and businesses can do more more easily. So Kemi should include getting rid of the carbon taxes and emission trading, the complex product specifications, many of the VAT impositions, simplify the data regime, abolish the Ports Directive, and many others often mentioned on this site. She should revisit Iain Duncan Smith’s Report on repealing EU laws which sits unimplemented."
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

    I think she's wrecked her career. It's very sad.

    Or alternatively, given the polls, taken the first steps in rehabilitating her career and the Tory party fortunes.

    When you cite John Redwood in support of your argument you know you are on the wrong side
    What a pathetic argument. Anyone can read the content and decide for themselves whether it has merit.
    That is my point. It has no merit. Schoolchildren can see that.
    That wasn't your point, your point was that it should be dismissed as it was *snigger* by John Redwood - I'm not sure why a senior MP and Margaret Thatcher's economic advisor is someone you find so lacking in credibility on this issue, and I can't say I'm particularly interested in finding out - perhaps, just perhaps, it's the fact that his views on this are opposed to yours.

    As for schoolchildren - another peach of an argument there.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,901
    Nigelb said:

    A Texas man, 22, has been arrested for fatally shooting his 26-year-old girlfriend, Gabriella Gonzalez, after she traveled to Colorado to get an abortion. The man killed her in a Dallas parking lot the day after she returned.
    https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1657124079143473161

    ‘Pro life’
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    The fundamental question that voters will ask is: do I feel better off after 13 years of the Tories.

    In 2019 this was neutralised by Corbyn. But this is no longer a problem so voters will say “no” and go with the Red team.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,021
    Scott_xP said:

    WTAF??????

    @SkyNews

    Brexit stopped Ukraine invasion from succeeding, Jacob Rees-Mogg says

    Bonkers. Relieving JRM of the burden of office was one of the things Rishi got right. There are few more where he should have made similar choices.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,024
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    ...

    TOPPING said:

    Kemi's failure on the EU retained law bill looks worse than I thought - I thought she had prioritised the 600 laws she eas ditching to include the most important ones, but it would appear not:

    "We are offered a list claiming to be 600 measures which will go. Most of the items on the list have already time expired or relate to EU international agreements which clearly no longer affect the UK as we are not members covered by them. There are items relating to 1990s agricultural settlements long gone, to Olympics special measures for the London games, and a range of temporary controls for things like BSE which have passed. It is tidy to clear them up but makes no difference to the costs of doing business or the freedoms in our daily lives.

    For this policy to work there needs to clear areas where unhelpful rules and charges disappear, so people and businesses can do more more easily. So Kemi should include getting rid of the carbon taxes and emission trading, the complex product specifications, many of the VAT impositions, simplify the data regime, abolish the Ports Directive, and many others often mentioned on this site. She should revisit Iain Duncan Smith’s Report on repealing EU laws which sits unimplemented."
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

    I think she's wrecked her career. It's very sad.

    Or alternatively, given the polls, taken the first steps in rehabilitating her career and the Tory party fortunes.

    When you cite John Redwood in support of your argument you know you are on the wrong side
    What a pathetic argument. Anyone can read the content and decide for themselves whether it has merit.
    That is my point. It has no merit. Schoolchildren can see that.
    There's a delicious irony in Badenoch potentially ruining her political chances by doing something that's obviously sensible.
    The focus of this is absurd and frankly juvenile. The importance is not where a law or regulation came from but its utility and disutility in that it is interfering with useful activities.

    The only difference Brexit makes in this context is that it is now possible to repeal some regulations that were previously EU law and untouchable by the UK Parliament. But we have plenty of daft regulations of our own. It seems to me that Kemi is recognising that reality and I personally would give her credit for that rather than bemoaning her Brexiteer credentials which are now irrelevant.
    The Mogg gang are having a tantrum because they want to repeal laws just to see what happens.

    Likewise the vision I have of Truss and Kwarteng was of two toddlers pressing buttons on a control panel just to see what happens - the more lights going on the better.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,140

    The way back for the Tories is quite simple: build houses.

    They should have done that years ago but it's too late for that now. They'd enrage the NIMBYs of the nation (ie nearly everyone who voted for them last time) to reduce house prices under the next Prime Minister.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,805
    DavidL said:

    No, not at all. I am saying that the correct focus for a successful Brexit is to focus on the opportunities and freedom of manoeuvre that it gives us to decide what is in our best interests rather than having to take a rule book from the EU that all too often had been written for someone else's interests.

    But that argument has been won.

    Except it hasn't.

    Diverging from EU standards make it harder for business, not easier.

    Abandoning EU institutions has made it worse for UK students, researchers, scientists.

    Touring musicians are fucked.

    Changing visa regulations resulted in labour shortages.

    I don't see a single area where Brexit "freedom" made life easier or better for the UK.

    And yes, the vaccine rollout happened under the EU regime...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,024
    Richardr said:

    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Whoever the Conservative leader is wouldn't make much difference now, Sunak has at least steadied the ship and bought some competence after the Truss calamity. Even Boris might win back a few white working class voters from RefUK or DK but would still lose.

    The fact is after 13 years in power as per the usual electoral pendulum the mood is for change and changing the leader won't help that. The one comfort for Sunak is Starmer still does not enthuse swing voters like Blair did and he could still be John Major 1992 to Starmer's Kinnock as opposed to the John Major 1997 he currently looks like.

    Remember Starmer Labour only got 35% NEV in the local elections, in 1995 at the equivalent cycle Blair's Labour got 47%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Yes the Tories lost over 1,000 council seats but then so did Major' Tories in May 1991, with Labour gaining over 500 and the LDs over 400 an almost identical result to the local elections of May 2023. Yet Major's Tories defied most pollsters to win a narrow re election the following year despite also being in power for 13 years. Yes the Tory NEV was worse this May than in 1991 but then there are plenty of DKs and RefUK voters for Rishi to squeeze

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    It's not the 13 years that has caused the Tory decline it is this...

    * Prices are still rising with double digits.
    * Taxes are higher than they've ever been

    *You cannot get a doctor's appointment.
    *You cannot signup to a dentist.
    *The hospitals are on strike

    *The roads have potholes that would make the third world blush.
    *The trains do not run.

    *You cannot easily come and go, due to Brexit bureaucracy
    *Somehow illegal trafficking allows millions to come here.

    *The greenbelt is a building site,
    *but people cannot afford a place of their own

    *The water companies pollute our rivers at will,
    * but cannot (here for 12 hours) get clean water in the taps.
    You must live in the England's worst shithole.

    Can you recount your miseries more often - it always brings amusement to northerners to hear of southern suffering.
    Not sure where you live, but going off the big swing away from the Tories in the red wall the other week it seems clear that most northerners recognise what Jonathan has listed...
    I think there's a general and genuine anger about the greed and sleaze and lies and 'one rule for us and another rule for you' mentality of the Conservatives.

    But last week the Conservatives did well in Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall, Thurrock, Peterborough, Hyndburn - life isn't so bad in all the 'grim' places.

    And indeed for many millions it's never been better - full employment, pay rises, affordable housing, a better environment and now interest getting paid on savings accounts.
    The rest of your list I will accept.
    But pay rises?
    Who exactly are these people with real terms pay increases?
    We keep hearing about them.
    But all the data suggests it is only those on bonuses who are anywhere near standing still.
    And there aren't many of them in the places you list.
    The new rate will come into effect on 2 April 2023 and represents a 7% rise in base pay. This is on top of the increases made since July 2022, to support staff facing increased costs. As a result of this deal, over 10 months, base pay will have increased by nearly 15.5%.

    https://www.usdaw.org.uk/About-Us/News/2023/Feb/Tesco-pay-deal-Usdaw-secures-a-7-increase-in-hourl#:~:text=The new rate will come,have increased by nearly 15.5%.

    The new £11.40 per hour starting rate, which is effective from 1st July 2023, is more than 13% higher than it was a year ago, representing an investment of more than £100m in colleague pay in the last 12 months.

    https://www.aldipresscentre.co.uk/business-news/aldi-gives-all-store-colleagues-a-further-pay-rise/#:~:text=The new £11.40 per,in the last 12 months.

    Shop staff at Pret a Manger are to receive their third pay rise in a year.

    The average pay base will have increased by 19% in the twelve months up to April at the British coffee and takeaway food chain.


    https://news.sky.com/story/pret-a-manger-staff-get-third-pay-rise-in-a-year-12823349

    Now there will also be many receiving lower than inflation pay rises but its still better to get a 6% pay rise with 10% inflation than a 2% pay rise with 6% inflation.

    And I suspect it will be difficult to stop the pay rises from continuing even after inflation has fallen - there's a lot of 'catch up' to happen for many workers.
    Your last point neatly explains why inflation isn't going anywhere - we started with inflation due to supply shortages (Covid/China/Ukraine war) and will now move on to second order effects - wage / price spiral inflation as costs rise due to increases in wages.

    I also recommend a look at https://truflation.com/ which calculates the UK's true rate of inflation at still running over 15%, having peaked at almost 22% in December of last year.

    A 13% pay rise over the last year has not kept up with inflation, particularly for poorer workers on lower wages who spend a disproportionate amount of their incomes on staple products and essentials such as heating and electricity, which have gone up more than the headline rate of inflation.
    It all averages out so while some will have a higher personal inflation rate others will have a lower one.

    And a general increase in consumer prices caused by higher pay rises for the low paid is not a bad thing.

    Rather its a much needed wealth transfer from non-workers to workers, from the old to the young and from the rich to the poor.
    Albeit the triple lock will affect that of course
    Sadly so.

    Triple lock pensions are malign economically but effective electorally.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,805

    Likewise the vision I have of Truss and Kwarteng was of two toddlers pressing buttons on a control panel just to see what happens - the more lights going on the better.

    I wonder what happens if I press this button marked Truss?

    Oh.

    A little light came on that says "Please do not press this button again"...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,021

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    ...

    TOPPING said:

    Kemi's failure on the EU retained law bill looks worse than I thought - I thought she had prioritised the 600 laws she eas ditching to include the most important ones, but it would appear not:

    "We are offered a list claiming to be 600 measures which will go. Most of the items on the list have already time expired or relate to EU international agreements which clearly no longer affect the UK as we are not members covered by them. There are items relating to 1990s agricultural settlements long gone, to Olympics special measures for the London games, and a range of temporary controls for things like BSE which have passed. It is tidy to clear them up but makes no difference to the costs of doing business or the freedoms in our daily lives.

    For this policy to work there needs to clear areas where unhelpful rules and charges disappear, so people and businesses can do more more easily. So Kemi should include getting rid of the carbon taxes and emission trading, the complex product specifications, many of the VAT impositions, simplify the data regime, abolish the Ports Directive, and many others often mentioned on this site. She should revisit Iain Duncan Smith’s Report on repealing EU laws which sits unimplemented."
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

    I think she's wrecked her career. It's very sad.

    Or alternatively, given the polls, taken the first steps in rehabilitating her career and the Tory party fortunes.

    When you cite John Redwood in support of your argument you know you are on the wrong side
    What a pathetic argument. Anyone can read the content and decide for themselves whether it has merit.
    That is my point. It has no merit. Schoolchildren can see that.
    There's a delicious irony in Badenoch potentially ruining her political chances by doing something that's obviously sensible.
    The focus of this is absurd and frankly juvenile. The importance is not where a law or regulation came from but its utility and disutility in that it is interfering with useful activities.

    The only difference Brexit makes in this context is that it is now possible to repeal some regulations that were previously EU law and untouchable by the UK Parliament. But we have plenty of daft regulations of our own. It seems to me that Kemi is recognising that reality and I personally would give her credit for that rather than bemoaning her Brexiteer credentials which are now irrelevant.
    The Mogg gang are having a tantrum because they want to repeal laws just to see what happens.

    Likewise the vision I have of Truss and Kwarteng was of two toddlers pressing buttons on a control panel just to see what happens - the more lights going on the better.
    I always loved Pratchett's observation that if a big button had "do not press, end of the world" on it the paint wouldn't have time to dry.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,024
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    No, not at all. I am saying that the correct focus for a successful Brexit is to focus on the opportunities and freedom of manoeuvre that it gives us to decide what is in our best interests rather than having to take a rule book from the EU that all too often had been written for someone else's interests.

    But that argument has been won.

    Except it hasn't.

    Diverging from EU standards make it harder for business, not easier.

    Abandoning EU institutions has made it worse for UK students, researchers, scientists.

    Touring musicians are fucked.

    Changing visa regulations resulted in labour shortages.

    I don't see a single area where Brexit "freedom" made life easier or better for the UK.

    And yes, the vaccine rollout happened under the EU regime...
    I remember you telling us that leaving the EU would result in mass unemployment.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,805
    ...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,805
    @soniasodha

    The Observer view on Brexit: Tories are paying the price for their dishonesty | Observer editorial

    https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1657687488058605569
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,021
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    No, not at all. I am saying that the correct focus for a successful Brexit is to focus on the opportunities and freedom of manoeuvre that it gives us to decide what is in our best interests rather than having to take a rule book from the EU that all too often had been written for someone else's interests.

    But that argument has been won.

    Except it hasn't.

    Diverging from EU standards make it harder for business, not easier.

    Abandoning EU institutions has made it worse for UK students, researchers, scientists.

    Touring musicians are fucked.

    Changing visa regulations resulted in labour shortages.

    I don't see a single area where Brexit "freedom" made life easier or better for the UK.

    And yes, the vaccine rollout happened under the EU regime...
    You are still insisting on fighting the same fight about a decision taken years ago. Clearly, to take one of your examples, there will be situations where keeping to an internationally agreed standard, which also happens to be the EU standard, will make sense and it would be stupid to do otherwise. But that is not universally true and there are areas where we can have better regulations that are different.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,245
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    ...

    TOPPING said:

    Kemi's failure on the EU retained law bill looks worse than I thought - I thought she had prioritised the 600 laws she eas ditching to include the most important ones, but it would appear not:

    "We are offered a list claiming to be 600 measures which will go. Most of the items on the list have already time expired or relate to EU international agreements which clearly no longer affect the UK as we are not members covered by them. There are items relating to 1990s agricultural settlements long gone, to Olympics special measures for the London games, and a range of temporary controls for things like BSE which have passed. It is tidy to clear them up but makes no difference to the costs of doing business or the freedoms in our daily lives.

    For this policy to work there needs to clear areas where unhelpful rules and charges disappear, so people and businesses can do more more easily. So Kemi should include getting rid of the carbon taxes and emission trading, the complex product specifications, many of the VAT impositions, simplify the data regime, abolish the Ports Directive, and many others often mentioned on this site. She should revisit Iain Duncan Smith’s Report on repealing EU laws which sits unimplemented."
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

    I think she's wrecked her career. It's very sad.

    Or alternatively, given the polls, taken the first steps in rehabilitating her career and the Tory party fortunes.

    When you cite John Redwood in support of your argument you know you are on the wrong side
    What a pathetic argument. Anyone can read the content and decide for themselves whether it has merit.
    That is my point. It has no merit. Schoolchildren can see that.
    There's a delicious irony in Badenoch potentially ruining her political chances by doing something that's obviously sensible.
    The focus of this is absurd and frankly juvenile. The importance is not where a law or regulation came from but its utility and disutility in that it is interfering with useful activities.

    The only difference Brexit makes in this context is that it is now possible to repeal some regulations that were previously EU law and untouchable by the UK Parliament. But we have plenty of daft regulations of our own. It seems to me that Kemi is recognising that reality and I personally would give her credit for that rather than bemoaning her Brexiteer credentials which are now irrelevant.
    I agree with the general principle that if the full bill was genuinely impossible for whatever reason, prioritise the big ones where doing business can be genuinely made easier, for repeal. If you read Redwood's passage, that's exactly what she *hasn't* done. The 600 due to be scrapped are fluff, and the genuinely irksome laws remain. That is poor by any measure, and it has nothing to do with being a Brexiteer - any good Trade Secretary, recognising the fact that we're out of the EU would seek to remove those laws that made doing business more difficult.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    The return of imperial measurements ROFL. Nobody young even understands what they are
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,805
    DavidL said:

    there are areas where we can have better regulations that are different.

    In theory, maybe?

    In practise, not really.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,021

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    ...

    TOPPING said:

    Kemi's failure on the EU retained law bill looks worse than I thought - I thought she had prioritised the 600 laws she eas ditching to include the most important ones, but it would appear not:

    "We are offered a list claiming to be 600 measures which will go. Most of the items on the list have already time expired or relate to EU international agreements which clearly no longer affect the UK as we are not members covered by them. There are items relating to 1990s agricultural settlements long gone, to Olympics special measures for the London games, and a range of temporary controls for things like BSE which have passed. It is tidy to clear them up but makes no difference to the costs of doing business or the freedoms in our daily lives.

    For this policy to work there needs to clear areas where unhelpful rules and charges disappear, so people and businesses can do more more easily. So Kemi should include getting rid of the carbon taxes and emission trading, the complex product specifications, many of the VAT impositions, simplify the data regime, abolish the Ports Directive, and many others often mentioned on this site. She should revisit Iain Duncan Smith’s Report on repealing EU laws which sits unimplemented."
    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com

    I think she's wrecked her career. It's very sad.

    Or alternatively, given the polls, taken the first steps in rehabilitating her career and the Tory party fortunes.

    When you cite John Redwood in support of your argument you know you are on the wrong side
    What a pathetic argument. Anyone can read the content and decide for themselves whether it has merit.
    That is my point. It has no merit. Schoolchildren can see that.
    There's a delicious irony in Badenoch potentially ruining her political chances by doing something that's obviously sensible.
    The focus of this is absurd and frankly juvenile. The importance is not where a law or regulation came from but its utility and disutility in that it is interfering with useful activities.

    The only difference Brexit makes in this context is that it is now possible to repeal some regulations that were previously EU law and untouchable by the UK Parliament. But we have plenty of daft regulations of our own. It seems to me that Kemi is recognising that reality and I personally would give her credit for that rather than bemoaning her Brexiteer credentials which are now irrelevant.
    I agree with the general principle that if the full bill was genuinely impossible for whatever reason, prioritise the big ones where doing business can be genuinely made easier, for repeal. If you read Redwood's passage, that's exactly what she *hasn't* done. The 600 due to be scrapped are fluff, and the genuinely irksome laws remain. That is poor by any measure, and it has nothing to do with being a Brexiteer - any good Trade Secretary, recognising the fact that we're out of the EU would seek to remove those laws that made doing business more difficult.
    Can you be more specific. What rules should she have repealed that she has left alone? What, in your view, is the best example?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,805
    Brexit was sold to voters seven years ago on the basis it would be the answer to myriad problems. It would address Britain’s laggardly growth by putting rocket boosters under the economy. It would free up money to spend on an underfunded NHS. It would boost wages in low-paid jobs by reducing immigration levels. And it would reinvigorate our parliamentary democracy by returning sovereignty to Westminster.

    None of this was ever going to materialise and recent years have only served to underline just how false these promises were. Last week, the government finally put to bed the idea it is feasible to scrap thousands of retained EU regulations in one swoop when Kemi Badenoch junked the profoundly undemocratic sunset clause in the retained EU law bill.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/13/the-observer-view-on-brexit-tories-are-paying-the-price-for-their-dishonesty
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,245
    ...

    The return of imperial measurements ROFL. Nobody young even understands what they are

    I happen to agree - I grew up with some Imperial weights and measures still around, but I find them mostly unfathomable. But why not let the market decide? If someone wants to sell a pound of bananas, let them.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    edited May 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    "Businesses and voters largely prefer the metric system."
    Another wizard wheeze meets reality.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,021

    The return of imperial measurements ROFL. Nobody young even understands what they are

    But a lot of older people have struggled with their replacement and still do. Why does the government need to regulate what weights and measures are put on packaging at all? Why can't producers simply pick the one that suits their target market best?
This discussion has been closed.