At the top end of my expectation. But again it is the Tories that suffer here, not Labour.
Ed Davey has understood after a decade, which voters to target. It also helps that Lib Dem voters quite like Keir Starmer and the Tories keep going on about penises whilst destroying the economy.
Ed Davey is low profile, but an excellent organiser. We seem to be a competent party again.
He's also a lucky General.
Jo Swinson was an unlucky one. There was nothing much wrong with her policies or performance, but she got caught in a classic two Party squeeze.
I don't see that happening next time round.
Jo Swinson was terrible. Her presentation was poor, my heart sunk when she became Leader. And her policies also stank, notably the idea that no referendum would be necessary to Remain should the LDs form a government - a proposal that required suspension of at least two separate beliefs.
She started well, but went bonkers in 2019, letting any defector in, and running a terrible campaign.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
His credible long term plan involves moving to LA to try and revive his financial career. I wish he'd go and get someone in who actually wants the job.
I'm trying to work out whose hatred is more irrationally over the top:
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
His credible long term plan involves moving to LA to try and revive his financial career. I wish he'd go and get someone in who actually wants the job.
I'm trying to work out whose hatred is more irrationally over the top:
On @Casino_Royale 's substantive points it's true Sunak has no vision for the future. But nor does Starmer. So I don't think that's the fundamental weakness.
Sunak's weakness in a matchup is Starmer has expelled his lunatics while Sunak has brought them into the cabinet.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
His credible long term plan involves moving to LA to try and revive his financial career. I wish he'd go and get someone in who actually wants the job.
I'm trying to work out whose hatred is more irrationally over the top:
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
His credible long term plan involves moving to LA to try and revive his financial career. I wish he'd go and get someone in who actually wants the job.
I'm trying to work out whose hatred is more irrationally over the top:
On @Casino_Royale 's substantive points it's true Sunak has no vision for the future. But nor does Starmer. So I don't think that's the fundamental weakness.
Sunak's weakness in a matchup is Starmer has expelled his lunatics while Sunak has brought them into the cabinet.
I would venture that Starmer is edging toward a vision. He is like a hedgehog, slowly putting one building block on top of another (ok that metaphor doesn’t work, but you get it).
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
His credible long term plan involves moving to LA to try and revive his financial career. I wish he'd go and get someone in who actually wants the job.
I'm trying to work out whose hatred is more irrationally over the top:
On @Casino_Royale 's substantive points it's true Sunak has no vision for the future. But nor does Starmer. So I don't think that's the fundamental weakness.
Sunak's weakness in a matchup is Starmer has expelled his lunatics while Sunak has brought them into the cabinet.
I would venture that Starmer is edging toward a vision. He is like a hedgehog, slowly putting one building block on top of another (ok that metaphor doesn’t work, but you get it).
He’s far more cunning than I thought he was.
It has to be said, though, it did strike me that that was one of the things that hurt Cameron. He talked endlessly about his 'vision' and 'values' but he had very few useful policies. It was one reason why people weren't convinced by him.
I wonder if Starmer is about to make the same error, or whether he's learned from that mistake.
At the top end of my expectation. But again it is the Tories that suffer here, not Labour.
Ed Davey has understood after a decade, which voters to target. It also helps that Lib Dem voters quite like Keir Starmer and the Tories keep going on about penises whilst destroying the economy.
Ed Davey is low profile, but an excellent organiser. We seem to be a competent party again.
He's also a lucky General.
Jo Swinson was an unlucky one. There was nothing much wrong with her policies or performance, but she got caught in a classic two Party squeeze.
I don't see that happening next time round.
Jo Swinson was terrible. Her presentation was poor, my heart sunk when she became Leader. And her policies also stank, notably the idea that no referendum would be necessary to Remain should the LDs form a government - a proposal that required suspension of at least two separate beliefs.
She started well, but went bonkers in 2019, letting any defector in, and running a terrible campaign.
She only became leader in July 2019.
Yes, but the first few months were OK, winning the Brecon by-election for example. It went wrong when Johnson became Leader, and she grossly over reacted.
Johnson became leader 2 days after she did and the Brecon by-election was only a week later. She inherited what should have been a great opportunity for the Lib Dems and blew it spectacularly.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
His credible long term plan involves moving to LA to try and revive his financial career. I wish he'd go and get someone in who actually wants the job.
I'm trying to work out whose hatred is more irrationally over the top:
At the top end of my expectation. But again it is the Tories that suffer here, not Labour.
Ed Davey has understood after a decade, which voters to target. It also helps that Lib Dem voters quite like Keir Starmer and the Tories keep going on about penises whilst destroying the economy.
Ed Davey is low profile, but an excellent organiser. We seem to be a competent party again.
He's also a lucky General.
Jo Swinson was an unlucky one. There was nothing much wrong with her policies or performance, but she got caught in a classic two Party squeeze.
I don't see that happening next time round.
Jo Swinson was terrible. Her presentation was poor, my heart sunk when she became Leader. And her policies also stank, notably the idea that no referendum would be necessary to Remain should the LDs form a government - a proposal that required suspension of at least two separate beliefs.
She started well, but went bonkers in 2019, letting any defector in, and running a terrible campaign.
She only became leader in July 2019.
Yes, but the first few months were OK, winning the Brecon by-election for example. It went wrong when Johnson became Leader, and she grossly over reacted.
Johnson became leader 2 days after she did and the Brecon by-election was only a week later. She inherited what should have been a great opportunity for the Lib Dems and blew it spectacularly.
While I agree with your general point, Swinson had effectively been LibDem leader for months, as it was clear she was going to beat Davey by a margin.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
His credible long term plan involves moving to LA to try and revive his financial career. I wish he'd go and get someone in who actually wants the job.
I'm trying to work out whose hatred is more irrationally over the top:
On @Casino_Royale 's substantive points it's true Sunak has no vision for the future. But nor does Starmer. So I don't think that's the fundamental weakness.
Sunak's weakness in a matchup is Starmer has expelled his lunatics while Sunak has brought them into the cabinet.
I would venture that Starmer is edging toward a vision. He is like a hedgehog, slowly putting one building block on top of another (ok that metaphor doesn’t work, but you get it).
He’s far more cunning than I thought he was.
It has to be said, though, it did strike me that that was one of the things that hurt Cameron. He talked endlessly about his 'vision' and 'values' but he had very few useful policies. It was one reason why people weren't convinced by him.
I wonder if Starmer is about to make the same error, or whether he's learned from that mistake.
Cameron *was* successful. He might still be PM if it wasn’t for, you know.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
Cameron in 2015, Starmer now. I think the time and context are more important than the leader, unless the leader is particularly charismatic or objectionable (which neither Starmer nor Sunak are).
At the top end of my expectation. But again it is the Tories that suffer here, not Labour.
Ed Davey has understood after a decade, which voters to target. It also helps that Lib Dem voters quite like Keir Starmer and the Tories keep going on about penises whilst destroying the economy.
Ed Davey is low profile, but an excellent organiser. We seem to be a competent party again.
He's also a lucky General.
Jo Swinson was an unlucky one. There was nothing much wrong with her policies or performance, but she got caught in a classic two Party squeeze.
I don't see that happening next time round.
Jo Swinson was terrible. Her presentation was poor, my heart sunk when she became Leader. And her policies also stank, notably the idea that no referendum would be necessary to Remain should the LDs form a government - a proposal that required suspension of at least two separate beliefs.
She started well, but went bonkers in 2019, letting any defector in, and running a terrible campaign.
She only became leader in July 2019.
Yes, but the first few months were OK, winning the Brecon by-election for example. It went wrong when Johnson became Leader, and she grossly over reacted.
Johnson became leader 2 days after she did and the Brecon by-election was only a week later. She inherited what should have been a great opportunity for the Lib Dems and blew it spectacularly.
While I agree with your general point, Swinson had effectively been LibDem leader for months, as it was clear she was going to beat Davey by a margin.
Perhaps she was another victim of Truss syndrome. The problem with long leadership elections where the winning candidate knows it's in the bag is that it goes to their head.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
His credible long term plan involves moving to LA to try and revive his financial career. I wish he'd go and get someone in who actually wants the job.
I'm trying to work out whose hatred is more irrationally over the top:
On @Casino_Royale 's substantive points it's true Sunak has no vision for the future. But nor does Starmer. So I don't think that's the fundamental weakness.
Sunak's weakness in a matchup is Starmer has expelled his lunatics while Sunak has brought them into the cabinet.
I would venture that Starmer is edging toward a vision. He is like a hedgehog, slowly putting one building block on top of another (ok that metaphor doesn’t work, but you get it).
He’s far more cunning than I thought he was.
It has to be said, though, it did strike me that that was one of the things that hurt Cameron. He talked endlessly about his 'vision' and 'values' but he had very few useful policies. It was one reason why people weren't convinced by him.
I wonder if Starmer is about to make the same error, or whether he's learned from that mistake.
Possibly the other way round. No vision, no theme, but a set of incremental actions that progress towards something prosaic but decent. Certainly seems to be his approach to cleaning the Labour stables.
Politically, it shouldn't work, but the Conservatives are obliging by being so unattractive that he can become PM without much of the usual political razzmatazz.
Ian Leslie described him as a tortoise, which I reckon gets his weaknesses and strengths pretty well. And if the UK is in a mess, one step forward/one step sideways/wait a bit might be the only safe way out of it.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
No it will for sure if it persists - yield and price are inversely correlated - although yes it could be mitigated to an extent and for a while by other factors eg political manipulation.
Anyway, thanks for the comments on the Post Office header. From my LinkedIn page I see that 15 people working at the Treasury have read it - or at least viewed it.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
People not being able to sell due to negative equity doesn't affect the supply of housing because pretty much every one of those people selling will need another house. Cheaper definitely, smaller probably, rented maybe, but another house all the same.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
His credible long term plan involves moving to LA to try and revive his financial career. I wish he'd go and get someone in who actually wants the job.
I'm trying to work out whose hatred is more irrationally over the top:
On @Casino_Royale 's substantive points it's true Sunak has no vision for the future. But nor does Starmer. So I don't think that's the fundamental weakness.
Sunak's weakness in a matchup is Starmer has expelled his lunatics while Sunak has brought them into the cabinet.
I would venture that Starmer is edging toward a vision. He is like a hedgehog, slowly putting one building block on top of another (ok that metaphor doesn’t work, but you get it).
He’s far more cunning than I thought he was.
It has to be said, though, it did strike me that that was one of the things that hurt Cameron. He talked endlessly about his 'vision' and 'values' but he had very few useful policies. It was one reason why people weren't convinced by him.
I wonder if Starmer is about to make the same error, or whether he's learned from that mistake.
Cameron *was* successful. He might still be PM if it wasn’t for, you know.
But he isn't and wasn't as Brexit was ultimately a culmination of putting party management and tactics ahead of what was best for the country, until it all caught up with him.
At the top end of my expectation. But again it is the Tories that suffer here, not Labour.
Ed Davey has understood after a decade, which voters to target. It also helps that Lib Dem voters quite like Keir Starmer and the Tories keep going on about penises whilst destroying the economy.
Ed Davey is low profile, but an excellent organiser. We seem to be a competent party again.
He's also a lucky General.
Jo Swinson was an unlucky one. There was nothing much wrong with her policies or performance, but she got caught in a classic two Party squeeze.
I don't see that happening next time round.
Jo Swinson was terrible. Her presentation was poor, my heart sunk when she became Leader. And her policies also stank, notably the idea that no referendum would be necessary to Remain should the LDs form a government - a proposal that required suspension of at least two separate beliefs.
She started well, but went bonkers in 2019, letting any defector in, and running a terrible campaign.
She only became leader in July 2019.
Yes, but the first few months were OK, winning the Brecon by-election for example. It went wrong when Johnson became Leader, and she grossly over reacted.
Johnson became leader 2 days after she did and the Brecon by-election was only a week later. She inherited what should have been a great opportunity for the Lib Dems and blew it spectacularly.
While I agree with your general point, Swinson had effectively been LibDem leader for months, as it was clear she was going to beat Davey by a margin.
The last few times the Lib Dems have suddenly performed well it’s been against a background of obscurity and absence from the news. I start to wonder whether that was Swinson’s problem: people liked the party as a blank canvas to express a general view on Europe. Not someone promising to repeal Brexit and proclaiming they’d be the next PM. If we’d just kept quiet would we have done better?
Sure Kennedy’s personality seemed to serve the party well in the noughties, but the conditions were different then. Labour were the target.
Or maybe personality doesn’t make any difference one way or the other, unless you’re scrabble rousing party like UKIP we’re under Farage. Look at the greens. I couldn’t even name their joint leaders.
At the top end of my expectation. But again it is the Tories that suffer here, not Labour.
Ed Davey has understood after a decade, which voters to target. It also helps that Lib Dem voters quite like Keir Starmer and the Tories keep going on about penises whilst destroying the economy.
61 is too high for the LDs.
I would think so too, but in 1997 LDs swept to a similar number of seats despite their vote share going down because of the collapse of the Tory vote. It can collapse too, after all it did so last week.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
His credible long term plan involves moving to LA to try and revive his financial career. I wish he'd go and get someone in who actually wants the job.
I'm trying to work out whose hatred is more irrationally over the top:
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
People not being able to sell due to negative equity doesn't affect the supply of housing because pretty much every one of those people selling will need another house. Cheaper definitely, smaller probably, rented maybe, but another house all the same.
That's not quite true: it impedes labour mobility, and therefore the functioning of the maket.
At the top end of my expectation. But again it is the Tories that suffer here, not Labour.
Ed Davey has understood after a decade, which voters to target. It also helps that Lib Dem voters quite like Keir Starmer and the Tories keep going on about penises whilst destroying the economy.
Ed Davey is low profile, but an excellent organiser. We seem to be a competent party again.
He's also a lucky General.
Jo Swinson was an unlucky one. There was nothing much wrong with her policies or performance, but she got caught in a classic two Party squeeze.
I don't see that happening next time round.
Jo Swinson was terrible. Her presentation was poor, my heart sunk when she became Leader. And her policies also stank, notably the idea that no referendum would be necessary to Remain should the LDs form a government - a proposal that required suspension of at least two separate beliefs.
She started well, but went bonkers in 2019, letting any defector in, and running a terrible campaign.
She only became leader in July 2019.
Yes, but the first few months were OK, winning the Brecon by-election for example. It went wrong when Johnson became Leader, and she grossly over reacted.
Johnson became leader 2 days after she did and the Brecon by-election was only a week later. She inherited what should have been a great opportunity for the Lib Dems and blew it spectacularly.
While I agree with your general point, Swinson had effectively been LibDem leader for months, as it was clear she was going to beat Davey by a margin.
The last few times the Lib Dems have suddenly performed well it’s been against a background of obscurity and absence from the news. I start to wonder whether that was Swinson’s problem: people liked the party as a blank canvas to express a general view on Europe. Not someone promising to repeal Brexit and proclaiming they’d be the next PM. If we’d just kept quiet would we have done better?
Sure Kennedy’s personality seemed to serve the party well in the noughties, but the conditions were different then. Labour were the target.
Or maybe personality doesn’t make any difference one way or the other, unless you’re scrabble rousing party like UKIP we’re under Farage. Look at the greens. I couldn’t even name their joint leaders.
Isn't it as simple as, when the Tories are lagging in the polls the LibDems (and the Liberals before them) do well? Plenty in the 'never vote Labour' or 'never vote Tory' camp will turn to the LDs to assuage their consciences.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Yes, but continued repression of supply will mitigate that to some extent.
Mitigate yes. But a quantum jump in interest rates from 1 to 5 type thing will be a big downward factor on property values. They'll be much lower in real terms in a few years time once it all works through and people get accustomed.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
People not being able to sell due to negative equity doesn't affect the supply of housing because pretty much every one of those people selling will need another house. Cheaper definitely, smaller probably, rented maybe, but another house all the same.
Though probably declines in house prices will be small in absolute terms, just occurring in real terms, thereby sparing people negative equity. Assuming of course that their earnings vaguely keep up with inflation.
At the top end of my expectation. But again it is the Tories that suffer here, not Labour.
Ed Davey has understood after a decade, which voters to target. It also helps that Lib Dem voters quite like Keir Starmer and the Tories keep going on about penises whilst destroying the economy.
Ed Davey is low profile, but an excellent organiser. We seem to be a competent party again.
He's also a lucky General.
Jo Swinson was an unlucky one. There was nothing much wrong with her policies or performance, but she got caught in a classic two Party squeeze.
I don't see that happening next time round.
Jo Swinson was terrible. Her presentation was poor, my heart sunk when she became Leader. And her policies also stank, notably the idea that no referendum would be necessary to Remain should the LDs form a government - a proposal that required suspension of at least two separate beliefs.
She started well, but went bonkers in 2019, letting any defector in, and running a terrible campaign.
She only became leader in July 2019.
Yes, but the first few months were OK, winning the Brecon by-election for example. It went wrong when Johnson became Leader, and she grossly over reacted.
Johnson became leader 2 days after she did and the Brecon by-election was only a week later. She inherited what should have been a great opportunity for the Lib Dems and blew it spectacularly.
While I agree with your general point, Swinson had effectively been LibDem leader for months, as it was clear she was going to beat Davey by a margin.
The last few times the Lib Dems have suddenly performed well it’s been against a background of obscurity and absence from the news. I start to wonder whether that was Swinson’s problem: people liked the party as a blank canvas to express a general view on Europe. Not someone promising to repeal Brexit and proclaiming they’d be the next PM. If we’d just kept quiet would we have done better?
Sure Kennedy’s personality seemed to serve the party well in the noughties, but the conditions were different then. Labour were the target.
Or maybe personality doesn’t make any difference one way or the other, unless you’re scrabble rousing party like UKIP we’re under Farage. Look at the greens. I couldn’t even name their joint leaders.
Isn't it as simple as, when the Tories are lagging in the polls the LibDems (and the Liberals before them) do well? Plenty in the 'never vote Labour' or 'never vote Tory' camp will turn to the LDs to assuage their consciences.
Generally yes - LD seat count most strongly negatively correlated with Tory vote share.
The partial exception being 2005 (and to an extent 2010, but we did go marginally backwards in that one) but again those were unusual circumstances.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
At the top end of my expectation. But again it is the Tories that suffer here, not Labour.
Ed Davey has understood after a decade, which voters to target. It also helps that Lib Dem voters quite like Keir Starmer and the Tories keep going on about penises whilst destroying the economy.
Ed Davey is low profile, but an excellent organiser. We seem to be a competent party again.
He's also a lucky General.
Jo Swinson was an unlucky one. There was nothing much wrong with her policies or performance, but she got caught in a classic two Party squeeze.
I don't see that happening next time round.
Jo Swinson was terrible. Her presentation was poor, my heart sunk when she became Leader. And her policies also stank, notably the idea that no referendum would be necessary to Remain should the LDs form a government - a proposal that required suspension of at least two separate beliefs.
She started well, but went bonkers in 2019, letting any defector in, and running a terrible campaign.
She only became leader in July 2019.
Yes, but the first few months were OK, winning the Brecon by-election for example. It went wrong when Johnson became Leader, and she grossly over reacted.
Johnson became leader 2 days after she did and the Brecon by-election was only a week later. She inherited what should have been a great opportunity for the Lib Dems and blew it spectacularly.
While I agree with your general point, Swinson had effectively been LibDem leader for months, as it was clear she was going to beat Davey by a margin.
The last few times the Lib Dems have suddenly performed well it’s been against a background of obscurity and absence from the news. I start to wonder whether that was Swinson’s problem: people liked the party as a blank canvas to express a general view on Europe. Not someone promising to repeal Brexit and proclaiming they’d be the next PM. If we’d just kept quiet would we have done better?
Sure Kennedy’s personality seemed to serve the party well in the noughties, but the conditions were different then. Labour were the target.
Or maybe personality doesn’t make any difference one way or the other, unless you’re scrabble rousing party like UKIP we’re under Farage. Look at the greens. I couldn’t even name their joint leaders.
Isn't it as simple as, when the Tories are lagging in the polls the LibDems (and the Liberals before them) do well? Plenty in the 'never vote Labour' or 'never vote Tory' camp will turn to the LDs to assuage their consciences.
Generally yes - LD seat count most strongly negatively correlated with Tory vote share.
The partial exception being 2005 (and to an extent 2010, but we did go marginally backwards in that one) but again those were unusual circumstances.
Or perhaps positively correlates with Labour vote share?
The two parties do seem to rise and fall together.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
People not being able to sell due to negative equity doesn't affect the supply of housing because pretty much every one of those people selling will need another house. Cheaper definitely, smaller probably, rented maybe, but another house all the same.
That's not quite true: it impedes labour mobility, and therefore the functioning of the maket.
But, your general point is a good one.
Oh yes, it impedes the functioning of the market by shrinking both supply and demand.
Falling house prices do the same, no one likes to buy in a falling market and, perversely, when people see that their house value has gone down they think want to wait until prices rise again (missing the point that, if they're trading up the price gap will have reduced too.
We saw both effects in 2008-9 having smugly sold our house at the peak and moved into rented for a time, we were a bit kiboshed by the scarcity of property to buy. Very little of quality came on the market and we took ages to find something, by which time prices were rising quickly again.
There is an expensive dentist, a cheap dentist, the tooth fairy and £10 note in a room when the lights go out. When the lights go back on, the £10 has gone. Who took it and why?
There is an expensive dentist, a cheap dentist, the tooth fairy and £10 note in a room when the lights go out. When the lights go back on, the £10 has gone. Who took it and why?
The expensive dentist as the other two do not exist.
There is an expensive dentist, a cheap dentist, the tooth fairy and £10 note in a room when the lights go out. When the lights go back on, the £10 has gone. Who took it and why?
The expensive dentist as the other two do not exist.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
No it will for sure if it persists - yield and price are inversely correlated - although yes it could be mitigated to an extent and for a while by other factors eg political manipulation.
As much as a nice big crash in property prices would suit many of us, there's no point in waiting for a correction - or even for prices simply to stagnate - in the medium-to-long term. Interest rates are going to head back down towards nil as soon as inflationary pressures ease, and the other mechanisms that I've identified - along with the Bank of Mum & Dad, topped up with inheritances - will easily bridge the gap.
Again, if a commodity is as desirable as property, and the supply of that commodity grows ever more scarce in relation to the total number of people who are competing to get their hands on it, then prices are always likely to keep on rising. Folk will give up having kids, going on holiday, eating out, even eating properly full stop, to get their hands on their own home, out of desperation. Whatever the consequences of struggling to service a huge mortgage, those of being condemned to a whole lifetime of paying extortionate rents are worse.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
A lot of the illegal migrants working in the black economy are in dormitories in packed HMOs, or living in other irregular forms of accommodation like lock up garages and garden sheds. And homeless people in rural areas are indeed to be found hidden away in tents in the woods.
Given that house building lags continually behind increases in population, this can do nothing but get worse.
Anyway, thanks for the comments on the Post Office header. From my LinkedIn page I see that 15 people working at the Treasury have read it - or at least viewed it.
I’m guessing that 0/15 will do anything substantive.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
I've been thinking of buying a boat.
I've always fancied one of those small wooden sailing boats found in the fens.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
His credible long term plan involves moving to LA to try and revive his financial career. I wish he'd go and get someone in who actually wants the job.
I'm trying to work out whose hatred is more irrationally over the top:
On @Casino_Royale 's substantive points it's true Sunak has no vision for the future. But nor does Starmer. So I don't think that's the fundamental weakness.
Sunak's weakness in a matchup is Starmer has expelled his lunatics while Sunak has brought them into the cabinet.
I think Starmer's government, should he take over next year, will be more different from Sunak's than many people think. Depending on your political views it's quite possible to prefer Sunak, while thinking either man is acceptable for the post, just as Johnson, Truss and Corbyn weren't
Pim Fortuyn was murdered 21 years ago ‘Pim is dead but his ideas are more alive than ever,’ ran a headline in the Guardian two days after his assassination. That declaration is as true now as it was then. Politicians can be silenced but populism cannot be killed with a bullet. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/was-pim-fortuyn-the-true-brexit-trailblazer/
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
No, no, no
It’s racist to suggest that immigrants need somewhere to live, didn’t you get the memo? They can all sleep on the head of single pin or something.
And you’ll be told to your face that multiple adults per room HMOs don’t happen.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
I've been thinking of buying a boat.
I've always fancied one of those small wooden sailing boats found in the fens.
1) you’ve never been on a boat in winter. 2) you’ve never tried maintaining a wooden boat.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
A lot of the illegal migrants working in the black economy are in dormitories in packed HMOs, or living in other irregular forms of accommodation like lock up garages and garden sheds. And homeless people in rural areas are indeed to be found hidden away in tents in the woods.
Given that house building lags continually behind increases in population, this can do nothing but get worse.
I would be tempted, if rich, to buy a lot of hardware from Tanks A Lot and simply start building houses.
I must say I don't agree with the idea that the Lib Dems should avoid incorporating more leftwing policies into a centrist platform.
Their period of biggest advance was a story of moving gradually to the left between 1997 and 2010, and the period of the biggest decline was being associated more with the right, 2010 to around last year.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
I've been thinking of buying a boat.
I've always fancied one of those small wooden sailing boats found in the fens.
1) you’ve never been on a boat in winter. 2) you’ve never tried maintaining a wooden boat.
Can't a man dream. A fiberglass motor 'yacht' and obligatory club membership hasn't the same appeal.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
No, no, no
It’s racist to suggest that immigrants need somewhere to live, didn’t you get the memo? They can all sleep on the head of single pin or something.
And you’ll be told to your face that multiple adults per room HMOs don’t happen.
Anecdote.
Dodgy slum landlords in my block - rents out flats to HMO/immigrants/etc. When they move out they just dump the entire contents of the flat (mostly mattresses and a TV unit) out into the shared courtyard and replaces the 'contents' of the flat with some cheap mattresses and a new TV unit to pack another 8 people into a one-bedroom flat.
Council and/or police are informed (again).
Police say 'nothing we can do'.
Council send letter to all the other residents saying they will be fined unless the mess is dealt with within 2 weeks.
Letters sent to councillors. Councillors say 'we can't do anything' despite photographic evidence and written statements. Co-incidentally, some councillors are also related to said landlords.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
I've been thinking of buying a boat.
I've always fancied one of those small wooden sailing boats found in the fens.
1) you’ve never been on a boat in winter. 2) you’ve never tried maintaining a wooden boat.
Can't a man dream. A fiberglass motor 'yacht' and obligatory club membership hasn't the same appeal.
A friend has a big plastic motor cruiser. The mooring fees are a mortgage, paying for the boat is a literal mortgage and Saudi Arabia sinking 5mm every time he turns the engines over.
The next door guy at his mooring has a wooden boat. Retired. He spends all day, every day, all year round fixing it.
When I went round HMS Victory they told us that the amount of original timber from Nelson’s time was about 20%
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
A lot of the illegal migrants working in the black economy are in dormitories in packed HMOs, or living in other irregular forms of accommodation like lock up garages and garden sheds. And homeless people in rural areas are indeed to be found hidden away in tents in the woods.
Given that house building lags continually behind increases in population, this can do nothing but get worse.
I would be tempted, if rich, to buy a lot of hardware from Tanks A Lot and simply start building houses.
μολὼν λαβέ
Ummm.
You do know that building costs have gone through the roof, right?
It's hard to build new properties (except for city center flats) profitably, because the cost of new build is probably £200-250/square foot. And that's before land.
So, if you want to build a 1,500 square foot home, then (after securing the land and the planning permission), you're going to be spending £300,000 on construction alone.
Oh yeah, and don't forget the cost of money. You need to buy the land. Sit on it (paying interest) while you get planning permission. Pay for building. Then sell it.
If your land was £50,000, and it takes four years from purchase to completion, and your cost of capital is 10%. Well... then in all probability you need to sell that property for £350,000 to just break even.
Now, can you do that in the South East?
Sure you can. But there's not unlimited demand for £350,000 homes. That means people in need to earn around £100,000 per year to purchase it.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
His credible long term plan involves moving to LA to try and revive his financial career. I wish he'd go and get someone in who actually wants the job.
I'm trying to work out whose hatred is more irrationally over the top:
On @Casino_Royale 's substantive points it's true Sunak has no vision for the future. But nor does Starmer. So I don't think that's the fundamental weakness.
Sunak's weakness in a matchup is Starmer has expelled his lunatics while Sunak has brought them into the cabinet.
I think Starmer's government, should he take over next year, will be more different from Sunak's than many people think. Depending on your political views it's quite possible to prefer Sunak, while thinking either man is acceptable for the post, just as Johnson, Truss and Corbyn weren't
I think Starmer's government is unpredictable. It might govern in a soft-left way, but it might also be rather radical. Either way it's going to have to raise a lot of extra tax to do what it wants to do.
My view is that SKS is essentially a classic north London left-liberal, with views very much like @kinabalu, and is essentially doing whatever he has to do to get elected with the monarchism and patriotism because he's professional enough to take advice. But, it's a carefully choreographed performance - not a sincere one.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
A lot of the illegal migrants working in the black economy are in dormitories in packed HMOs, or living in other irregular forms of accommodation like lock up garages and garden sheds. And homeless people in rural areas are indeed to be found hidden away in tents in the woods.
Given that house building lags continually behind increases in population, this can do nothing but get worse.
Someone came into our Citizens Advice two weeks ago in just such a situation - trying to find proper accommodation but currently living in a tent in a copse on the edge of town.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
I've been thinking of buying a boat.
I've always fancied one of those small wooden sailing boats found in the fens.
1) you’ve never been on a boat in winter. 2) you’ve never tried maintaining a wooden boat.
Can't a man dream. A fiberglass motor 'yacht' and obligatory club membership hasn't the same appeal.
A sailing friend of mine in Torquay assures me that there are only ever 2 good days on a boat. The day you buy it, and the day you sell it.
Now he crews for other people that he meets via the Cruising Association. There are always owners desperate for competent crew.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
I've been thinking of buying a boat.
I've always fancied one of those small wooden sailing boats found in the fens.
1) you’ve never been on a boat in winter. 2) you’ve never tried maintaining a wooden boat.
Can't a man dream. A fiberglass motor 'yacht' and obligatory club membership hasn't the same appeal.
A friend has a big plastic motor cruiser. The mooring fees are a mortgage, paying for the boat is a literal mortgage and Saudi Arabia sinking 5mm every time he turns the engines over.
The next door guy at his mooring has a wooden boat. Retired. He spends all day, every day, all year round fixing it.
When I went round HMS Victory they told us that the amount of original timber from Nelson’s time was about 20%
The Athenians feel their pain. They studied it in detail.
If a woman says she'll be ready in 15 minutes, she will be.
No need to remind her every half hour.
I once dated someone who took an astonishing time to get organised in the morning. At one point she walked in on me staring out the window and asked what I was doing. I just said "Watching the seasons change."
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
A lot of the illegal migrants working in the black economy are in dormitories in packed HMOs, or living in other irregular forms of accommodation like lock up garages and garden sheds. And homeless people in rural areas are indeed to be found hidden away in tents in the woods.
Given that house building lags continually behind increases in population, this can do nothing but get worse.
I would be tempted, if rich, to buy a lot of hardware from Tanks A Lot and simply start building houses.
μολὼν λαβέ
Ummm.
You do know that building costs have gone through the roof, right?
It's hard to build new properties (except for city center flats) profitably, because the cost of new build is probably £200-250/square foot. And that's before land.
So, if you want to build a 1,500 square foot home, then (after securing the land and the planning permission), you're going to be spending £300,000 on construction alone.
Oh yeah, and don't forget the cost of money. You need to buy the land. Sit on it (paying interest) while you get planning permission. Pay for building. Then sell it.
If your land was £50,000, and it takes four years from purchase to completion, and your cost of capital is 10%. Well... then in all probability you need to sell that property for £350,000 to just break even.
Now, can you do that in the South East?
Sure you can. But there's not unlimited demand for £350,000 homes. That means people in need to earn around £100,000 per year to purchase it.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
I've been thinking of buying a boat.
I've always fancied one of those small wooden sailing boats found in the fens.
1) you’ve never been on a boat in winter. 2) you’ve never tried maintaining a wooden boat.
Can't a man dream. A fiberglass motor 'yacht' and obligatory club membership hasn't the same appeal.
A sailing friend of mine in Torquay assures me that there are only ever 2 good days on a boat. The day you buy it, and the day you sell it.
Now he crews for other people that he meets via the Cruising Association. There are always owners desperate for competent crew.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
A lot of the illegal migrants working in the black economy are in dormitories in packed HMOs, or living in other irregular forms of accommodation like lock up garages and garden sheds. And homeless people in rural areas are indeed to be found hidden away in tents in the woods.
Given that house building lags continually behind increases in population, this can do nothing but get worse.
I would be tempted, if rich, to buy a lot of hardware from Tanks A Lot and simply start building houses.
μολὼν λαβέ
Ummm.
You do know that building costs have gone through the roof, right?
It's hard to build new properties (except for city center flats) profitably, because the cost of new build is probably £200-250/square foot. And that's before land.
So, if you want to build a 1,500 square foot home, then (after securing the land and the planning permission), you're going to be spending £300,000 on construction alone.
Oh yeah, and don't forget the cost of money. You need to buy the land. Sit on it (paying interest) while you get planning permission. Pay for building. Then sell it.
If your land was £50,000, and it takes four years from purchase to completion, and your cost of capital is 10%. Well... then in all probability you need to sell that property for £350,000 to just break even.
Now, can you do that in the South East?
Sure you can. But there's not unlimited demand for £350,000 homes. That means people in need to earn around £100,000 per year to purchase it.
£50k for a building plot in the South East?
Only if bought as agricultural land, otherwise 5-10x that.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
I've been thinking of buying a boat.
I've always fancied one of those small wooden sailing boats found in the fens.
1) you’ve never been on a boat in winter. 2) you’ve never tried maintaining a wooden boat.
Can't a man dream. A fiberglass motor 'yacht' and obligatory club membership hasn't the same appeal.
A friend has a big plastic motor cruiser. The mooring fees are a mortgage, paying for the boat is a literal mortgage and Saudi Arabia sinking 5mm every time he turns the engines over.
The next door guy at his mooring has a wooden boat. Retired. He spends all day, every day, all year round fixing it.
When I went round HMS Victory they told us that the amount of original timber from Nelson’s time was about 20%
Alright a hollow tree and a paddle. I'll just burn a new one out every season.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
I've been thinking of buying a boat.
I've always fancied one of those small wooden sailing boats found in the fens.
1) you’ve never been on a boat in winter. 2) you’ve never tried maintaining a wooden boat.
Can't a man dream. A fiberglass motor 'yacht' and obligatory club membership hasn't the same appeal.
A friend has a big plastic motor cruiser. The mooring fees are a mortgage, paying for the boat is a literal mortgage and Saudi Arabia sinking 5mm every time he turns the engines over.
The next door guy at his mooring has a wooden boat. Retired. He spends all day, every day, all year round fixing it.
When I went round HMS Victory they told us that the amount of original timber from Nelson’s time was about 20%
I was inside Sherborne Abbey last week looking at the sublime stonework - wondering what proportion of it had been renewed over the centuries and how much was original. (I have no idea.)
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
I've been thinking of buying a boat.
I've always fancied one of those small wooden sailing boats found in the fens.
1) you’ve never been on a boat in winter. 2) you’ve never tried maintaining a wooden boat.
Can't a man dream. A fiberglass motor 'yacht' and obligatory club membership hasn't the same appeal.
A friend has a big plastic motor cruiser. The mooring fees are a mortgage, paying for the boat is a literal mortgage and Saudi Arabia sinking 5mm every time he turns the engines over.
The next door guy at his mooring has a wooden boat. Retired. He spends all day, every day, all year round fixing it.
When I went round HMS Victory they told us that the amount of original timber from Nelson’s time was about 20%
I was inside Sherborne Abbey last week looking at the sublime stonework - wondering what proportion of it had been renewed over the centuries and how much was original. (I have no idea.)
Once watched a TV show about a council worker who’d managed to use the same broom for an astonishing amount of time. It had had 17 new heads and 14 new handles.
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
His credible long term plan involves moving to LA to try and revive his financial career. I wish he'd go and get someone in who actually wants the job.
I'm trying to work out whose hatred is more irrationally over the top:
On @Casino_Royale 's substantive points it's true Sunak has no vision for the future. But nor does Starmer. So I don't think that's the fundamental weakness.
Sunak's weakness in a matchup is Starmer has expelled his lunatics while Sunak has brought them into the cabinet.
I think Starmer's government, should he take over next year, will be more different from Sunak's than many people think. Depending on your political views it's quite possible to prefer Sunak, while thinking either man is acceptable for the post, just as Johnson, Truss and Corbyn weren't
I think Starmer's government is unpredictable. It might govern in a soft-left way, but it might also be rather radical. Either way it's going to have to raise a lot of extra tax to do what it wants to do.
My view is that SKS is essentially a classic north London left-liberal, with views very much like @kinabalu, and is essentially doing whatever he has to do to get elected with the monarchism and patriotism because he's professional enough to take advice. But, it's a carefully choreographed performance - not a sincere one.
I would be interested to hear what you think Sunak's sincere political beliefs are.
(I do think he has some, but I come from a different political viewpoint).
I don't know what's going to happen in Autumn 2024 but an improving economic situation isn't going to shift many votes, I think. People aren't going to forget the cost of living crisis, even if it ends, and, to some extent, it ending might make it even safer to vote Labour.
Best thing Rishi can do is perform sensible Government, fixing problems and issues for floaters, and lay out a credible and visionary long-term plan - the bit he's missing at the moment.
I see Goldman Sachs is expecting interest rates to reach 5% this summer. That is going to squeeze a lot of people as they remortgage.
Indeed it is intended to squeeze people, so consumer demand is suppressed.
But likely less so than in previous decades.
The ratio of owned outright to owned with a mortgage has changed considerably.
And now those who have paid off their mortgage will benefit from higher interest rates on their savings.
So, we affluent oldies get extra benefit while the young find it even harder to get on the property ladder. Sounds like just what the country needs!
A new normal of 5% interest rates should depress house prices though. It has to really.
Not necessarily. Firstly, hiking interest rates does nothing to address the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand, which is at the core of property price inflation. Secondly, prices can still be rigged through other means. Exhibit A - rumours that Sunak is toying with a revival of Help to Vote Tory Buy. Exhibit B - the re-emergence of 100% LTV mortgages onto the market.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
I think that is simplistic.
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
House prices are ultimately sustained by
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand. 2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
To repurpose an old joke, perhaps the Tories should plan for a winter of discount tents.
I know you joke but the shanty towns are coming. There's already a rise in mobile living with boats, vans, caravans etc. As immigration is bounding a long, councils are ripping up housing plans and builders completion rates are pretty stable where will everyone live?
I've been thinking of buying a boat.
I've always fancied one of those small wooden sailing boats found in the fens.
1) you’ve never been on a boat in winter. 2) you’ve never tried maintaining a wooden boat.
Can't a man dream. A fiberglass motor 'yacht' and obligatory club membership hasn't the same appeal.
A sailing friend of mine in Torquay assures me that there are only ever 2 good days on a boat. The day you buy it, and the day you sell it.
Now he crews for other people that he meets via the Cruising Association. There are always owners desperate for competent crew.
Comments
@bigjohnowls for Starmer
or
you for Sunak
https://louiseperry.substack.com/p/the-new-elite-matt-goodwin-maiden
Brighton 0 Everton 4
On @Casino_Royale 's substantive points it's true Sunak has no vision for the future. But nor does Starmer. So I don't think that's the fundamental weakness.
Sunak's weakness in a matchup is Starmer has expelled his lunatics while Sunak has brought them into the cabinet.
No need to remind her every half hour.
He is like a hedgehog, slowly putting one building block on top of another (ok that metaphor doesn’t work, but you get it).
He’s far more cunning than I thought he was.
I wonder if Starmer is about to make the same error, or whether he's learned from that mistake.
I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you.
He might still be PM if it wasn’t for, you know.
"This surely can't go on?!?!" People have been saying this about UK house prices for ages, just like they always used to say about the integrity of the Eurozone when that was on fire - and with what result?
People buy based on affordability.
As interest rates fell, property prices rose, so that affordability remained constant.
As interest rates rise, house prices fall. However, they don't fall as fast as they went up, because rising interest rates and falling house prices reduces the supply of housing (people who have negative equity can't sell).
I feel like Alexander the Great, like him, I saw the breadth of my domain and I wept, for there were no more worlds to conquer.
I'm EMBARRASSED: Texas #2 in nation for new gun purchases, behind CALIFORNIA. Let's pick up the pace Texans.
https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/659427797853536256
Politically, it shouldn't work, but the Conservatives are obliging by being so unattractive that he can become PM without much of the usual political razzmatazz.
Ian Leslie described him as a tortoise, which I reckon gets his weaknesses and strengths pretty well. And if the UK is in a mess, one step forward/one step sideways/wait a bit might be the only safe way out of it.
Sure Kennedy’s personality seemed to serve the party well in the noughties, but the conditions were different then. Labour were the target.
Or maybe personality doesn’t make any difference one way or the other, unless you’re scrabble rousing party like UKIP we’re under Farage. Look at the greens. I couldn’t even name their joint leaders.
Loathing yup
1) The massive shortage of housing vs demand.
2) The ability to pay
Twiddling with 2) won't do very much for the actual problem. which is (1)
But, your general point is a good one.
The partial exception being 2005 (and to an extent 2010, but we did go marginally backwards in that one) but again those were unusual circumstances.
The police chased him around the pews a bit, before they caught him by the organ.
The two parties do seem to rise and fall together.
Falling house prices do the same, no one likes to buy in a falling market and, perversely, when people see that their house value has gone down they think want to wait until prices rise again (missing the point that, if they're trading up the price gap will have reduced too.
We saw both effects in 2008-9 having smugly sold our house at the peak and moved into rented for a time, we were a bit kiboshed by the scarcity of property to buy. Very little of quality came on the market and we took ages to find something, by which time prices were rising quickly again.
Again, if a commodity is as desirable as property, and the supply of that commodity grows ever more scarce in relation to the total number of people who are competing to get their hands on it, then prices are always likely to keep on rising. Folk will give up having kids, going on holiday, eating out, even eating properly full stop, to get their hands on their own home, out of desperation. Whatever the consequences of struggling to service a huge mortgage, those of being condemned to a whole lifetime of paying extortionate rents are worse.
What a nob.
(I suspect only @El_Capitano will get that one!)
Given that house building lags continually behind increases in population, this can do nothing but get worse.
I should have known it would happen. He's pure bread
Don’t know how it got in there.
‘Pim is dead but his ideas are more alive than ever,’ ran a headline in the Guardian two days after his assassination. That declaration is as true now as it was then. Politicians can be silenced but populism cannot be killed with a bullet.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/was-pim-fortuyn-the-true-brexit-trailblazer/
It’s racist to suggest that immigrants need somewhere to live, didn’t you get the memo? They can all sleep on the head of single pin or something.
And you’ll be told to your face that multiple adults per room HMOs don’t happen.
Utterly ludicrous, but also quietly brilliant.
2) you’ve never tried maintaining a wooden boat.
That Tom/Shiv clear the air scene was utterly magnificent. Emmy award winning stuff.
Reminded me of the time my wife and I had a clear the air chat.
Spoiler: We began divorce proceeding weeks later.
μολὼν λαβέ
Their period of biggest advance was a story of moving gradually to the left between 1997 and 2010, and the period of the biggest decline was being associated more with the right, 2010 to around last year.
Dodgy slum landlords in my block - rents out flats to HMO/immigrants/etc. When they move out they just dump the entire contents of the flat (mostly mattresses and a TV unit) out into the shared courtyard and replaces the 'contents' of the flat with some cheap mattresses and a new TV unit to pack another 8 people into a one-bedroom flat.
Council and/or police are informed (again).
Police say 'nothing we can do'.
Council send letter to all the other residents saying they will be fined unless the mess is dealt with within 2 weeks.
Letters sent to councillors. Councillors say 'we can't do anything' despite photographic evidence and written statements. Co-incidentally, some councillors are also related to said landlords.
Rinse and repeat every six months to a year.
The next door guy at his mooring has a wooden boat. Retired. He spends all day, every day, all year round fixing it.
When I went round HMS Victory they told us that the amount of original timber from Nelson’s time was about 20%
You do know that building costs have gone through the roof, right?
It's hard to build new properties (except for city center flats) profitably, because the cost of new build is probably £200-250/square foot. And that's before land.
So, if you want to build a 1,500 square foot home, then (after securing the land and the planning permission), you're going to be spending £300,000 on construction alone.
Oh yeah, and don't forget the cost of money. You need to buy the land. Sit on it (paying interest) while you get planning permission. Pay for building. Then sell it.
If your land was £50,000, and it takes four years from purchase to completion, and your cost of capital is 10%. Well... then in all probability you need to sell that property for £350,000 to just break even.
Now, can you do that in the South East?
Sure you can. But there's not unlimited demand for £350,000 homes. That means people in need to earn around £100,000 per year to purchase it.
My view is that SKS is essentially a classic north London left-liberal, with views very much like @kinabalu, and is essentially doing whatever he has to do to get elected with the monarchism and patriotism because he's professional enough to take advice. But, it's a carefully choreographed performance - not a sincere one.
Now he crews for other people that he meets via the Cruising Association. There are always owners desperate for competent crew.
It became a full Theseus.
The afternoon did not go well.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/05/gene-editing-makes-bacteria-killing-viruses-even-more-deadly/
(I do think he has some, but I come from a different political viewpoint).