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Why Sunak’s ratings might not be enough – politicalbetting.com

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  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited April 2023
    dixiedean said:

    The coronation liturgy sounds incredible.

    I challenge anyone not to be moved by this, whatever your view.

    This is going to be the show of a lifetime - and might be your only chance to see one:

    https://www.churchofengland.org/coronation/liturgy

    I suspect that most of us will probably be around for the next one. This is not to wish ill of the King but he is 75 this year so will be doing very well if he matches his mother and lives another 21 years. Hopefully most of us on here have another 21 years in us.
    And yet we are asked to swear "May the King live for ever!"
    To question his immortality is bordering on treachery.
    Yes. That bit is especially bonkers.

    It’s pure power play. He’s on an ego trip.

    The man is fucking weird.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585

    DavidL said:

    WillG said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    For you it is Richard and that is to your credit imo.

    Problem is the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists you teamed up with won't be so thrilled.
    Do you honestly think that net migration of 700,000 a year - or more - year after year - is hunky dory? No problemo? You don’t ever look at, say, Sweden and think “Ooops”?

    It’s simply insane
    What I think is that if we are really sucking in anything like 700k to fill the gaps in our labour markets then our economy is doing better than the official statistics are showing. Anything like that number suggests that the UK jobs machine is back at near full throttle.

    And the answer to your more precise question is that it depends upon what the net figures are and who they are. If we are losing lots of doctors to Australasia but filling gaps in our care sector that is not going to do a lot for our average productivity.
    Your last paragraph gets to the heart of the issue. We have very little idea of who the new arrivals are. If you go through migration data, it is nearly impossible to figure out nationalities by visa route. It is definitely impossible to figure the skill and income categories by visa route.
    And we should be paying close attention to this. We want skills and to fill gaps in our job market. During FoM we simply ignored the hundreds of thousands coming here and made no attempt to work out if we were gaining IT specialists or beggars from Rumania but there is no excuse for this lack of attention to detail now. We were supposed to be taking back control but once again the Home Office and Border Force are simply not up to the task.
    We have a literal open border. Yet the Tories think the winning move is to do nothing to close it whilst saying that Labour want an open border.
    TBF, Labour really don't help themselves here by criticising not the fact that we have an open border, but any attempt to make it less open. That allows the Tories to get away with what they do.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    .

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    The coronation liturgy sounds incredible.

    I challenge anyone not to be moved by this, whatever your view.

    This is going to be the show of a lifetime - and might be your only chance to see one:

    https://www.churchofengland.org/coronation/liturgy

    Here is the rehearsal for the pledge https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoM-ZC7uNnc
    You've complicated the argument about the coronation oath by dragging Voodoo into it. Does anyone know whether Voodoo is monotheistic?
    Wikipedia says: “This theology has been labelled both monotheistic and polytheistic.”
    Hmm. I wonder if HYUFD can tell us what percentage of the UK population identified as believers in Voodoo in the last census.
    Did you hear about the psephologist from Warsaw wot moved to Haiti?

    He became a Voodoo Pole!

    (I thank you!)
    You do that voodoo that you do so well.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    WillG said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    For you it is Richard and that is to your credit imo.

    Problem is the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists you teamed up with won't be so thrilled.
    Do you honestly think that net migration of 700,000 a year - or more - year after year - is hunky dory? No problemo? You don’t ever look at, say, Sweden and think “Ooops”?

    It’s simply insane
    What I think is that if we are really sucking in anything like 700k to fill the gaps in our labour markets then our economy is doing better than the official statistics are showing. Anything like that number suggests that the UK jobs machine is back at near full throttle.

    And the answer to your more precise question is that it depends upon what the net figures are and who they are. If we are losing lots of doctors to Australasia but filling gaps in our care sector that is not going to do a lot for our average productivity.
    Your last paragraph gets to the heart of the issue. We have very little idea of who the new arrivals are. If you go through migration data, it is nearly impossible to figure out nationalities by visa route. It is definitely impossible to figure the skill and income categories by visa route.
    And we should be paying close attention to this. We want skills and to fill gaps in our job market. During FoM we simply ignored the hundreds of thousands coming here and made no attempt to work out if we were gaining IT specialists or beggars from Rumania but there is no excuse for this lack of attention to detail now. We were supposed to be taking back control but once again the Home Office and Border Force are simply not up to the task.
    We have a literal open border. Yet the Tories think the winning move is to do nothing to close it whilst saying that Labour want an open border.
    I don't think that it is an open border but there are no attempts at all to have quantitive controls. We couldn't do that when we were in the EU but we can do it now. And we aren't. We desperately need someone competent in the Home Office. Even giving Mrs May her old job back would be some sort of an improvement on someone more interested in political posturing than doing the job.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    edited April 2023
    ping said:

    dixiedean said:

    The coronation liturgy sounds incredible.

    I challenge anyone not to be moved by this, whatever your view.

    This is going to be the show of a lifetime - and might be your only chance to see one:

    https://www.churchofengland.org/coronation/liturgy

    I suspect that most of us will probably be around for the next one. This is not to wish ill of the King but he is 75 this year so will be doing very well if he matches his mother and lives another 21 years. Hopefully most of us on here have another 21 years in us.
    And yet we are asked to swear "May the King live for ever!"
    To question his immortality is bordering on treachery.
    Yes. That bit is especially bonkers.

    It’s pure power play. He’s on an ego trip.

    The man is fucking weird.
    Isn’t that bit from Handel’s coronation anthems that are typically sung at coronations?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    Theweb said:

    Leon said:

    Theweb said:

    Leon said:

    I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

    I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

    1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

    PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

    The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
    That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
    Maybe but there is no evidence of any great support in the uk for far right parties which want to curb immigration. Also because brexit was about white european immigrants people felt safe to vouch their disapproval. The British are a tolerant people who have no truck for extreme solutions.
    Why would they have to given that the main parties all talk about reducing immigration?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,657
    Leon said:

    Theweb said:

    Leon said:

    I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

    I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

    1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

    PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

    The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
    That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
    Brexit wasn't about immigration. Leave voters are a tolerant and welcoming folk. Indeed it was to increase immigration from other parts of the globe - thus broadening diversity and eschewing the white, euro-centric immigration that EU membership tended to impose - that, after the reclamation of sovereignty, was the prime motivation behind their decision. This has been explained on these threads time and time again.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Leon said:

    Theweb said:

    Leon said:

    I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

    I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

    1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

    PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

    The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
    That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
    We noticed - and also how popular it is these days.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    For you it is Richard and that is to your credit imo.

    Problem is the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists you teamed up with won't be so thrilled.
    Do you honestly think that net migration of 700,000 a year - or more - year after year - is hunky dory? No problemo? You don’t ever look at, say, Sweden and think “Ooops”?

    It’s simply insane
    What I think is that if we are really sucking in anything like 700k to fill the gaps in our labour markets then our economy is doing better than the official statistics are showing. Anything like that number suggests that the UK jobs machine is back at near full throttle.

    And the answer to your more precise question is that it depends upon what the net figures are and who they are. If we are losing lots of doctors to Australasia but filling gaps in our care sector that is not going to do a lot for our average productivity.
    Isn't a fair chunk of it student bounce-back after Covid?
    As @RochdalePioneers rightly says we don't know. Probably. And that will lead to issues when their student visas expire and they want to stay. But then some of them may have been taught something useful.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Theweb said:

    Leon said:

    Theweb said:

    Leon said:

    I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

    I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

    1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

    PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

    The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
    That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
    Maybe but there is no evidence of any great support in the uk for far right parties which want to curb immigration. Also because brexit was about white european immigrants people felt safe to vouch their disapproval. The British are a tolerant people who have no truck for extreme solutions.
    The idea that "curbing immigration" is believed by so many politicos as a "far right policy" shows how extreme the open borders brigade are.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Everybody’s just jealous that the British monarch has a special SACRED STONE which gets its own service in Westminster Abbey

    https://twitter.com/wabbey/status/1652392989916909574?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    A service has been held this evening to mark the arrival of the Stone of Destiny at Westminster Abbey.

    The stone – an ancient symbol of Scotland’s monarchy – will play a central role in the #Coronation of HM The King on 6th May.

    We're missing a trick with that rock. Simply haul it to the top of Glastonbury Tor, embed a sword in it, and get Charles to pull the sword back out. Bingo! Instant King of the Britons.
    He'd get very annoyed if there were a sword malfunction.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Theweb said:

    Leon said:

    I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

    I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

    1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

    PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

    The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
    That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
    We noticed - and also how popular it is these days.
    So popular no political party is willing to argue for reversing it.

    And one of its main challenges is that politicians haven't used the tools they now have to reduce immigration. Brexit was about bringing back control to Westminster and the electorate. Now we need to ensure that control is used for the right purposes.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    For you it is Richard and that is to your credit imo.

    Problem is the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists you teamed up with won't be so thrilled.
    Do you honestly think that net migration of 700,000 a year - or more - year after year - is hunky dory? No problemo? You don’t ever look at, say, Sweden and think “Ooops”?

    It’s simply insane
    What I think is that if we are really sucking in anything like 700k to fill the gaps in our labour markets then our economy is doing better than the official statistics are showing. Anything like that number suggests that the UK jobs machine is back at near full throttle.

    And the answer to your more precise question is that it depends upon what the net figures are and who they are. If we are losing lots of doctors to Australasia but filling gaps in our care sector that is not going to do a lot for our average productivity.
    Isn't a fair chunk of it student bounce-back after Covid?
    As @RochdalePioneers rightly says we don't know. Probably. And that will lead to issues when their student visas expire and they want to stay. But then some of them may have been taught something useful.
    Students can stay and work for two years after their course ends. This was reduced to four months at some point, but it is back to two years. After two years, they will then need a job and employer who qualifies for a work visa to continue.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    Off thread - I think denizens of this board will enjoy today's redactle unlimited:
    I solved Redactle Unlimited #388 in 15 guesses with an accuracy of 100% and a time of 00:03:40. Play at https://redactle-unlimited.com/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Theweb said:

    Leon said:

    I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

    I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

    1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

    PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

    The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
    That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
    We noticed - and also how popular it is these days.
    I saw the best analogy for our politicians approach to Brexit thus far this morning...

    Half a league, half a league,
    Half a league onward,
    All in the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.
    “Forward, the Light Brigade!
    Charge for the guns!” he said.
    Into the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.

    “Forward, the Light Brigade!”
    Was there a man dismayed?
    Not though the soldier knew
    Someone had blundered.
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Leon said:

    Theweb said:

    Leon said:

    I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

    I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

    1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

    PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

    The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
    That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
    Brexit wasn't about immigration. Leave voters are a tolerant and welcoming folk. Indeed it was to increase immigration from other parts of the globe - thus broadening diversity and eschewing the white, euro-centric immigration that EU membership tended to impose - that, after the reclamation of sovereignty, was the prime motivation behind their decision. This has been explained on these threads time and time again.
    Yes, the purpose was to replace unskilled migration from the EU with high skilled migration from the rest of the world. The problem is that it is low skilled migration that has taken off.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    carnforth said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    For you it is Richard and that is to your credit imo.

    Problem is the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists you teamed up with won't be so thrilled.
    Do you honestly think that net migration of 700,000 a year - or more - year after year - is hunky dory? No problemo? You don’t ever look at, say, Sweden and think “Ooops”?

    It’s simply insane
    What I think is that if we are really sucking in anything like 700k to fill the gaps in our labour markets then our economy is doing better than the official statistics are showing. Anything like that number suggests that the UK jobs machine is back at near full throttle.

    And the answer to your more precise question is that it depends upon what the net figures are and who they are. If we are losing lots of doctors to Australasia but filling gaps in our care sector that is not going to do a lot for our average productivity.
    Isn't a fair chunk of it student bounce-back after Covid?
    As @RochdalePioneers rightly says we don't know. Probably. And that will lead to issues when their student visas expire and they want to stay. But then some of them may have been taught something useful.
    Students can stay and work for two years after their course ends. This was reduced to four months at some point, but it is back to two years. After two years, they will then need a job and employer who qualifies for a work visa to continue.
    IANAE on this but according to my friends who do immigration work overstaying students who haven't got the requisite work visa is, at least in Scotland, a much, much bigger issue than boat people. It may be different in the south of England.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Theweb said:

    Leon said:

    I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

    I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

    1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

    PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

    The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
    That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
    We noticed - and also how popular it is these days.
    I saw the best analogy for our politicians approach to Brexit thus far this morning...

    Half a league, half a league,
    Half a league onward,
    All in the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.
    “Forward, the Light Brigade!
    Charge for the guns!” he said.
    Into the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.

    “Forward, the Light Brigade!”
    Was there a man dismayed?
    Not though the soldier knew
    Someone had blundered.
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die.
    You are like the Jacobites. In a hundred years you will still be raising glasses to the King Over the Sea.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    WillG said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    For you it is Richard and that is to your credit imo.

    Problem is the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists you teamed up with won't be so thrilled.
    Do you honestly think that net migration of 700,000 a year - or more - year after year - is hunky dory? No problemo? You don’t ever look at, say, Sweden and think “Ooops”?

    It’s simply insane
    What I think is that if we are really sucking in anything like 700k to fill the gaps in our labour markets then our economy is doing better than the official statistics are showing. Anything like that number suggests that the UK jobs machine is back at near full throttle.

    And the answer to your more precise question is that it depends upon what the net figures are and who they are. If we are losing lots of doctors to Australasia but filling gaps in our care sector that is not going to do a lot for our average productivity.
    Your last paragraph gets to the heart of the issue. We have very little idea of who the new arrivals are. If you go through migration data, it is nearly impossible to figure out nationalities by visa route. It is definitely impossible to figure the skill and income categories by visa route.
    And we should be paying close attention to this. We want skills and to fill gaps in our job market. During FoM we simply ignored the hundreds of thousands coming here and made no attempt to work out if we were gaining IT specialists or beggars from Rumania but there is no excuse for this lack of attention to detail now. We were supposed to be taking back control but once again the Home Office and Border Force are simply not up to the task.
    We have a literal open border. Yet the Tories think the winning move is to do nothing to close it whilst saying that Labour want an open border.
    I don't think that it is an open border but there are no attempts at all to have quantitive controls. We couldn't do that when we were in the EU but we can do it now. And we aren't. We desperately need someone competent in the Home Office. Even giving Mrs May her old job back would be some sort of an improvement on someone more interested in political posturing than doing the job.
    You really think that if Sunak ditches Suella it will be for someone *stronger* on quantitive controls? I'd like to see what convinces you of this.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,118
    WillG said:


    It is probably doable as long as they are all high earners that pay in a lot more in tax than they take in services.

    Does anybody know what the earnings level is that makes the average working-age person net-contributor? My guess is it's comparatively low -- education system use for children, a little light use of the health services, average demand on roads, libraries, and that sort of public provision, but no heavy healthcare, old age or social-services use. But I really have no idea.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    edited April 2023
    The immigration numbers trouble me.

    Although broadly pro-immigration, I do think the scale of change from roughly 2005 to 2015 was too great for many communities, and Britain never wants to put in the infrastructure to ensure that the benefits of immigration are better spread.

    Yet now we are importing MORE.

    The current numbers are inflated somewhat by Ukraine, which I think most on here will be OK with, but beyond that what seems to be happening is precisely @DavidL suggests upthread: We’re exporting doctors to Australia and importing nurses from Nigeria.

    The “good” news is that we’re no longer importing well educated young Europeans to work in hospitality, cultural and professional sectors.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    For you it is Richard and that is to your credit imo.

    Problem is the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists you teamed up with won't be so thrilled.
    Do you honestly think that net migration of 700,000 a year - or more - year after year - is hunky dory? No problemo? You don’t ever look at, say, Sweden and think “Ooops”?

    It’s simply insane
    What I think is that if we are really sucking in anything like 700k to fill the gaps in our labour markets then our economy is doing better than the official statistics are showing. Anything like that number suggests that the UK jobs machine is back at near full throttle.

    And the answer to your more precise question is that it depends upon what the net figures are and who they are. If we are losing lots of doctors to Australasia but filling gaps in our care sector that is not going to do a lot for our average productivity.
    David, the country is going to the dogs, something far wrong. If immigration was so great etc and economy doing well, how is that.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    DavidL said:

    carnforth said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    For you it is Richard and that is to your credit imo.

    Problem is the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists you teamed up with won't be so thrilled.
    Do you honestly think that net migration of 700,000 a year - or more - year after year - is hunky dory? No problemo? You don’t ever look at, say, Sweden and think “Ooops”?

    It’s simply insane
    What I think is that if we are really sucking in anything like 700k to fill the gaps in our labour markets then our economy is doing better than the official statistics are showing. Anything like that number suggests that the UK jobs machine is back at near full throttle.

    And the answer to your more precise question is that it depends upon what the net figures are and who they are. If we are losing lots of doctors to Australasia but filling gaps in our care sector that is not going to do a lot for our average productivity.
    Isn't a fair chunk of it student bounce-back after Covid?
    As @RochdalePioneers rightly says we don't know. Probably. And that will lead to issues when their student visas expire and they want to stay. But then some of them may have been taught something useful.
    Students can stay and work for two years after their course ends. This was reduced to four months at some point, but it is back to two years. After two years, they will then need a job and employer who qualifies for a work visa to continue.
    IANAE on this but according to my friends who do immigration work overstaying students who haven't got the requisite work visa is, at least in Scotland, a much, much bigger issue than boat people. It may be different in the south of England.
    In numbers, I'm sure. But people who have at some point got a visa have at least gone through some checks - for example the government will have seen their criminal record from their home country.

    Does Scotland have the same "right to work" and "right to rent" checks as England?
  • NEW THREAD

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Theweb said:

    Leon said:

    I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

    I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

    1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

    PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

    The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
    That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
    Brexit wasn't about immigration. Leave voters are a tolerant and welcoming folk. Indeed it was to increase immigration from other parts of the globe - thus broadening diversity and eschewing the white, euro-centric immigration that EU membership tended to impose - that, after the reclamation of sovereignty, was the prime motivation behind their decision. This has been explained on these threads time and time again.
    Yes, the purpose was to replace unskilled migration from the EU with high skilled migration from the rest of the world. The problem is that it is low skilled migration that has taken off.
    The Shortage Occupation List contains "graphic designer" at a salary of £18800, a job which can often be done remotely, for example. Perhaps there is a good reason for its inclusion, but I would love to know what it is....
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    pm215 said:

    WillG said:


    It is probably doable as long as they are all high earners that pay in a lot more in tax than they take in services.

    Does anybody know what the earnings level is that makes the average working-age person net-contributor? My guess is it's comparatively low -- education system use for children, a little light use of the health services, average demand on roads, libraries, and that sort of public provision, but no heavy healthcare, old age or social-services use. But I really have no idea.
    But that is the wrong way to look at it. You need to do it on a lifetime basis, because immigrants eventually get old and start consuming healthcare and pensions. We need them to pay enough in over their working life to make up for the old age cost.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited April 2023
    Deleted
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    WillG said:

    You are like the Jacobites. In a hundred years you will still be raising glasses to the King Over the Sea.

    In a hundred years we will be members of the EU again
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    RobD said:

    ping said:

    dixiedean said:

    The coronation liturgy sounds incredible.

    I challenge anyone not to be moved by this, whatever your view.

    This is going to be the show of a lifetime - and might be your only chance to see one:

    https://www.churchofengland.org/coronation/liturgy

    I suspect that most of us will probably be around for the next one. This is not to wish ill of the King but he is 75 this year so will be doing very well if he matches his mother and lives another 21 years. Hopefully most of us on here have another 21 years in us.
    And yet we are asked to swear "May the King live for ever!"
    To question his immortality is bordering on treachery.
    Yes. That bit is especially bonkers.

    It’s pure power play. He’s on an ego trip.

    The man is fucking weird.
    Isn’t that bit from Handel’s coronation anthems that are typically sung at coronations?
    Originally from a medieval composition found in a pontifical attributed to Egbert, an eighth-century Archbishop of York.

    I know conservatism predominates here, but this can hardly be considered an innovation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Airman in Leaks Case Worked on a Global Network Essential to Drone Missions
    Airman Jack Teixeira’s unit is part of a vast system that carries video and data from spy satellites and drone missions worldwide.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/30/us/leaks-teixeira-drones-intelligence.html


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    ping said:

    dixiedean said:

    The coronation liturgy sounds incredible.

    I challenge anyone not to be moved by this, whatever your view.

    This is going to be the show of a lifetime - and might be your only chance to see one:

    https://www.churchofengland.org/coronation/liturgy

    I suspect that most of us will probably be around for the next one. This is not to wish ill of the King but he is 75 this year so will be doing very well if he matches his mother and lives another 21 years. Hopefully most of us on here have another 21 years in us.
    And yet we are asked to swear "May the King live for ever!"
    To question his immortality is bordering on treachery.
    Yes. That bit is especially bonkers.

    It’s pure power play. He’s on an ego trip.

    The man is fucking weird.
    Isn’t that bit from Handel’s coronation anthems that are typically sung at coronations?
    Originally from a medieval composition found in a pontifical attributed to Egbert, an eighth-century Archbishop of York.

    I know conservatism predominates here, but this can hardly be considered an innovation.
    @Chris It's actually from the 1 Kings 1:40 describing the coronation of Solomon.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    Scott_xP said:

    WillG said:

    You are like the Jacobites. In a hundred years you will still be raising glasses to the King Over the Sea.

    In a hundred years we will be members of the EU again
    In a hundred years the EU will be nonexistant, or federalized. No loose association of states escapes both those fates.

    In neither event will we be part of it. Britain's membership of the EU will be considered at most a historical footnote or semi-interesting pub quiz teaser.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Scott_xP said:

    WillG said:

    You are like the Jacobites. In a hundred years you will still be raising glasses to the King Over the Sea.

    In a hundred years we will be members of the EU again
    And the descendant of Bonnie Prince Charlie will be sitting on his rightful throne!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    WillG said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WillG said:

    You are like the Jacobites. In a hundred years you will still be raising glasses to the King Over the Sea.

    In a hundred years we will be members of the EU again
    And the descendant of Bonnie Prince Charlie will be sitting on his rightful throne!
    He didn't have any descendants. The Stuart heirs come from his cousins.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    In a bit of a flashback to the 1980s, I'm currently in an Argos buying a thermos flask. It's terribly exciting - as if Amazon was a real life store. And less than 10 minutes from deciding to but the product to standing here with it in my hand. Slightly surprised to find these places still exist.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    WillG said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    For you it is Richard and that is to your credit imo.

    Problem is the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists you teamed up with won't be so thrilled.
    Do you honestly think that net migration of 700,000 a year - or more - year after year - is hunky dory? No problemo? You don’t ever look at, say, Sweden and think “Ooops”?

    It’s simply insane
    What I think is that if we are really sucking in anything like 700k to fill the gaps in our labour markets then our economy is doing better than the official statistics are showing. Anything like that number suggests that the UK jobs machine is back at near full throttle.

    And the answer to your more precise question is that it depends upon what the net figures are and who they are. If we are losing lots of doctors to Australasia but filling gaps in our care sector that is not going to do a lot for our average productivity.
    Your last paragraph gets to the heart of the issue. We have very little idea of who the new arrivals are. If you go through migration data, it is nearly impossible to figure out nationalities by visa route. It is definitely impossible to figure the skill and income categories by visa route.
    That information should be there. If it’s not clear from the data made available by the Home Office, this is what FOI requests were made for.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    WillG said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    For you it is Richard and that is to your credit imo.

    Problem is the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists you teamed up with won't be so thrilled.
    Do you honestly think that net migration of 700,000 a year - or more - year after year - is hunky dory? No problemo? You don’t ever look at, say, Sweden and think “Ooops”?

    It’s simply insane
    What I think is that if we are really sucking in anything like 700k to fill the gaps in our labour markets then our economy is doing better than the official statistics are showing. Anything like that number suggests that the UK jobs machine is back at near full throttle.

    And the answer to your more precise question is that it depends upon what the net figures are and who they are. If we are losing lots of doctors to Australasia but filling gaps in our care sector that is not going to do a lot for our average productivity.
    Your last paragraph gets to the heart of the issue. We have very little idea of who the new arrivals are. If you go through migration data, it is nearly impossible to figure out nationalities by visa route. It is definitely impossible to figure the skill and income categories by visa route.
    And we should be paying close attention to this. We want skills and to fill gaps in our job market. During FoM we simply ignored the hundreds of thousands coming here and made no attempt to work out if we were gaining IT specialists or beggars from Rumania but there is no excuse for this lack of attention to detail now. We were supposed to be taking back control but once again the Home Office and Border Force are simply not up to the task.
    We have a literal open border. Yet the Tories think the winning move is to do nothing to close it whilst saying that Labour want an open border.
    I don't think that it is an open border but there are no attempts at all to have quantitive controls. We couldn't do that when we were in the EU but we can do it now. And we aren't. We desperately need someone competent in the Home Office. Even giving Mrs May her old job back would be some sort of an improvement on someone more interested in political posturing than doing the job.
    Whether you think we should have less immigration or more immigration, it is somewhere between ridiculous and concerning that the Conservative Government and a succession of Home Secretaries spout such strong rhetoric and yet their actual policies are so different.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    TOPPING said:

    For you it is Richard and that is to your credit imo.

    Problem is the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists you teamed up with won't be so thrilled.
    How will the corrupt anti-democrats and terrorists you teamed up with feel about it?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    DavidL said:

    carnforth said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    For you it is Richard and that is to your credit imo.

    Problem is the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists you teamed up with won't be so thrilled.
    Do you honestly think that net migration of 700,000 a year - or more - year after year - is hunky dory? No problemo? You don’t ever look at, say, Sweden and think “Ooops”?

    It’s simply insane
    What I think is that if we are really sucking in anything like 700k to fill the gaps in our labour markets then our economy is doing better than the official statistics are showing. Anything like that number suggests that the UK jobs machine is back at near full throttle.

    And the answer to your more precise question is that it depends upon what the net figures are and who they are. If we are losing lots of doctors to Australasia but filling gaps in our care sector that is not going to do a lot for our average productivity.
    Isn't a fair chunk of it student bounce-back after Covid?
    As @RochdalePioneers rightly says we don't know. Probably. And that will lead to issues when their student visas expire and they want to stay. But then some of them may have been taught something useful.
    Students can stay and work for two years after their course ends. This was reduced to four months at some point, but it is back to two years. After two years, they will then need a job and employer who qualifies for a work visa to continue.
    IANAE on this but according to my friends who do immigration work overstaying students who haven't got the requisite work visa is, at least in Scotland, a much, much bigger issue than boat people. It may be different in the south of England.
    Visa overstayers has always been a much bigger source of illegal immigration than boat people. It’s the same in the US, way more visa overstayers than people coming over the Mexican border. But visa overstayers (a) show that the problem is enforcement, so lies at the feet of the Home Office, and (b) don’t have the same fear factor as talk of an “invasion” does.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    For you it is Richard and that is to your credit imo.

    Problem is the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists you teamed up with won't be so thrilled.
    Do you honestly think that net migration of 700,000 a year - or more - year after year - is hunky dory? No problemo? You don’t ever look at, say, Sweden and think “Ooops”?

    It’s simply insane
    What I think is that if we are really sucking in anything like 700k to fill the gaps in our labour markets then our economy is doing better than the official statistics are showing. Anything like that number suggests that the UK jobs machine is back at near full throttle.

    And the answer to your more precise question is that it depends upon what the net figures are and who they are. If we are losing lots of doctors to Australasia but filling gaps in our care sector that is not going to do a lot for our average productivity.
    Is possibly more push than pull. The OBR stated in its review of the Brexit effect on the economy: Brexit has killed investment; trade has suffered more than it expected. The one relative bright spark to support a contraction of only 4% was the massive expansion of immigration.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    For you it is Richard and that is to your credit imo.

    Problem is the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists you teamed up with won't be so thrilled.
    Do you honestly think that net migration of 700,000 a year - or more - year after year - is hunky dory? No problemo? You don’t ever look at, say, Sweden and think “Ooops”?

    It’s simply insane
    What I think is that if we are really sucking in anything like 700k to fill the gaps in our labour markets then our economy is doing better than the official statistics are showing. Anything like that number suggests that the UK jobs machine is back at near full throttle.

    And the answer to your more precise question is that it depends upon what the net figures are and who they are. If we are losing lots of doctors to Australasia but filling gaps in our care sector that is not going to do a lot for our average productivity.
    Is possibly more push than pull. The OBR stated in its review of the Brexit effect on the economy: Brexit has killed investment; trade has suffered more than it expected. The one relative bright spark to support a contraction of only 4% was the massive expansion of immigration.
    Never believe Govt stats. We have had recessions that proved not to be recessions because of adjusted data pist the initial calcs.
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited May 2023

    The coronation liturgy sounds incredible.

    I challenge anyone not to be moved by this, whatever your view.

    This is going to be the show of a lifetime - and might be your only chance to see one:

    https://www.churchofengland.org/coronation/liturgy

    Couldn't they afford a proofreader?

    "The Spurs were made in 1661 for King Charles II, but the use of spurs at Coronations dates back to King Richard I, and his Coronation in 1189.

    The original symbolism of the Spurs dates from an era when the Monarch would have ridden at the head of an army and derives from ceremonies for the creation of knights. The revised wording retains the significance of courage associated with the symbol of the Spurs whilst drawing out advocacy for those in need, whether that be in the area of defence of the realm or in practical service for the most vulnerable.
    "

    That's a cross between local authority bullshit and the way Easyjet try to flog cappuccino.

    As for the next bit, er yeah, it's truly moving poetry:

    "May (the king) live as long as the sun and moon endure,
    from one generation to another. Alleluia.
    "

    This is Monty Python, right?
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited May 2023

    The coronation liturgy sounds incredible.

    I challenge anyone not to be moved by this, whatever your view.

    This is going to be the show of a lifetime - and might be your only chance to see one:

    https://www.churchofengland.org/coronation/liturgy

    I don't think you understand how many of us who are repelled by this stuff think. We're not moved by it at all, unless you count feeling revulsion and pity as being moved.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662
    Westie said:

    The coronation liturgy sounds incredible.

    I challenge anyone not to be moved by this, whatever your view.

    This is going to be the show of a lifetime - and might be your only chance to see one:

    https://www.churchofengland.org/coronation/liturgy

    Couldn't they afford a proofreader?

    "The Spurs were made in 1661 for King Charles II, but the use of spurs at Coronations dates back to King Richard I, and his Coronation in 1189.

    The original symbolism of the Spurs dates from an era when the Monarch would have ridden at the head of an army and derives from ceremonies for the creation of knights. The revised wording retains the significance of courage associated with the symbol of the Spurs whilst drawing out advocacy for those in need, whether that be in the area of defence of the realm or in practical service for the most vulnerable.
    "

    That's a cross between local authority bullshit and the way Easyjet try to flog cappuccino.

    As for the next bit, er yeah, it's truly moving poetry:

    "May (the king) live as long as the sun and moon endure,
    from one generation to another. Alleluia.
    "

    This is Monty Python, right?
    You are just trolling
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Westie said:

    The coronation liturgy sounds incredible.

    I challenge anyone not to be moved by this, whatever your view.

    This is going to be the show of a lifetime - and might be your only chance to see one:

    https://www.churchofengland.org/coronation/liturgy

    I don't think you understand how many of us who are repelled by this stuff think. We're not moved by it at all, unless you count feeling revulsion and pity as being moved.
    I support having a monarchy and think KC3 will probably be OK, but I despise this archaic obscurantism. It isn't an essential part of monarchy, as other European monarchs ceased the practice years ago. 150 years ago for the Swedish.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,662
    Foxy said:

    Westie said:

    The coronation liturgy sounds incredible.

    I challenge anyone not to be moved by this, whatever your view.

    This is going to be the show of a lifetime - and might be your only chance to see one:

    https://www.churchofengland.org/coronation/liturgy

    I don't think you understand how many of us who are repelled by this stuff think. We're not moved by it at all, unless you count feeling revulsion and pity as being moved.
    I support having a monarchy and think KC3 will probably be OK, but I despise this archaic obscurantism. It isn't an essential part of monarchy, as other European monarchs ceased the practice years ago. 150 years ago for the Swedish.
    I think it is essential. Modernised a bit yes, but to change it would be foolish. Is lasted OK for hundreds of yrs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Foxy said:

    Westie said:

    The coronation liturgy sounds incredible.

    I challenge anyone not to be moved by this, whatever your view.

    This is going to be the show of a lifetime - and might be your only chance to see one:

    https://www.churchofengland.org/coronation/liturgy

    I don't think you understand how many of us who are repelled by this stuff think. We're not moved by it at all, unless you count feeling revulsion and pity as being moved.
    I support having a monarchy and think KC3 will probably be OK, but I despise this archaic obscurantism. It isn't an essential part of monarchy, as other European monarchs ceased the practice years ago. 150 years ago for the Swedish.
    I think it is essential. Modernised a bit yes, but to change it would be foolish. Is lasted OK for hundreds of yrs.
    I think it archaic mumbo-jumbo and completely unnecessary.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Johnson, nailed by Seldon, the book reviewed by Rawnsley. And what I thought when I met him; he just wanted to be important, there really is nothing else.

    Martin Hammond’s infamous notes on Johnson at Eton, which recorded his “disgracefully cavalier attitude”, his “gross failure of responsibility” and his deep-seated belief that he “should be free of the network of obligation that binds everyone else” is the opening source of Seldon’s account. Johnson’s “end was in his beginning”, he argues.

    Talking about him, Seldon acknowledges the former prime minister’s charisma “lights up the room”, but you sense too his almost personal feeling of betrayal at the squandering of those gifts, that headmasterly reaction that Johnson had let down his school, his family, his nation, but most of all, himself. His only discernible ambition, Seldon says, was that “like Roman emperors he wanted monuments in his name”.

    One of the striking aspects of his book is that the world beyond the confines of No 10, the reality of unprecedented national crisis in millions of people’s lives, hardly ever gets a look in, so concerned are the principal actors in this drama with protecting their sorry backsides.

    [Seldon says] “At his heart, he is extraordinarily empty. He can’t keep faithful to any idea, any person, any wife.”

    “The great prime ministers are all there at moments of great historical importance,” he says. “But they have to respond to them well. Chamberlain didn’t; Churchill in 1940, did. Asquith didn’t; Lloyd George did in 1916. Johnson had Brexit, he had the pandemic, he had the invasion of Ukraine and incipient third world war. He could have been the prime minister he craved to be, but he wasn’t, because of his utter inability to learn.”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Glasgow expresses its opinion of the coronation.
    https://twitter.com/andypingu1888/status/1652684051420000262
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    British workers increasingly likely to work into their 70s, research suggests
    Cost of living crisis forcing some older people to stay in work as data shows 61% increase in number of over-70s in employment
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/apr/30/british-workers-work-into-70s-cost-of-living
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Some interesting claims from Musk.

    Musk predicts next Starship launch in a “couple months”
    https://spacenews.com/musk-predicts-next-starship-launch-in-a-couple-months/
    ...Musk said while controllers initiated the flight termination system, it took much longer than expected, about 40 seconds, for explosives to rupture the vehicle’s tanks.

    Requalifying that flight termination system will be the long-lead item for the next launch, he predicted, with the next vehicle and a repaired pad likely ready in six to eight weeks. “Hopefully, we’ll be ready to fly again in a couple months.”..

    ...“The engines on Booster 9, which is next, are much newer and more consistent, and with significant reliability improvements,” he said, along with improved shielding. “I think we’ll see a much more robust engine situation with Booster 9.”

    He was optimistic that the second launch will get at least through stage separation. “Our goal for the next flight is make it to staging and hopefully succeed in staging and get to orbit,” he said. “I think we’ve got a decent shot of getting to orbit on the next flight.”..

This discussion has been closed.