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LAB’s Opinium voting lead over CON now 18% – up 4 – politicalbetting.com
LAB’s Opinium voting lead over CON now 18% – up 4 – politicalbetting.com
Latest @OpiniumResearch poll, 26-28 Apr, Lab 18pt leadLab 44% +2 since 14 AprCon 26% -2Best PMStarmer 28% ±0Sunak 26% -1Neither 31%
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/apr/29/labour-has-18-point-lead-on-tories-as-local-election-day-looms
I cannot be arsed to rewrite my morning thread which has been slightly contradicted by this Opinium finding.
The latest poll also shows a slump in Sunak’s personal approval ratings, with 26% approving of the job he is doing and 44% disapproving. It puts him on a net approval of -18. Starmer is on -3 due to rounding – with 31% approving and 33% disapproving of his performance.
Starmer also narrowly leads on who voters see as the best prime minister, by 28% to 26%. The pollsters said this continued a pattern which effectively sees the two leaders tied on this question.
Should that be 'view?'
Imagine that, but with less enthusiasm.
It shouldn't be enough, but it probably is.
One poll does not a trend make. We all know this. We*1 all do it anyway. Poll comes out "Sunak doomed!". Another poll comes out "Sunak saved!". PB is not a good processor of information.
*1 You.
The 1p off income tax trick work for him in April 2024 either, just as it didn't for Ken Clarke in 1996.
He will need to do something massive that doesn't undercut his LTEPII message.
Chapeau.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/10687/the-next-con-poll-lead-in-september-looks-a-good-bet-politicalbetting-com#latest
Tbf that's a lesson for us all not to read to much into current polls or trends.
Clarke wasn't ambitious enough.
Tonight I had a smoked salmon galette (a normally savoury, buckwheat crêpe) and a glass of wine. It cost me less than a tenner and I’m full
I’ve returned to my very nice Best Western hotel where I have my first bain in the salle de bain (I have a bath!) and I’m running a hot one to soak in for a while
I’ve also opened my first ever bottle of mead, or Chouchen as they call it here. It’s delicious. The sweetness is far less than I expected; it’s like an off-dry white, but with a hint of honey in the aftertaste
My hot bath beckons..
If you offer voters a penny off the income tax rate, they'll think "this is simply a bribe and I'm not voting for anything as shameless as that." But if you offer them five pence off, they'll think "this is a shameless bribe... but it's a bloody good one..."
Antisemitism was around before all that happened….
A lot of their current decisions are basically about getting to 2024 and pushing the unexploded bombs in the intray of the next government. That works fine for them, as long as they aren't the next government...
I don't think the multitude of public sector strikes are helping and the rejection of improved offers by various unions in the last week or so is not going to be doing the government any favours. Inflation staying above 10% wasn't great either. The government needs some better news to restore any trend in their favour.
It does look like, contrary to the IMF projections, they will have one of the very best growth rates in Q1 where the EU and Eurozone figures in particular have been dreadful. But no doubt that will not get as much attention as the IMF forecasts.
They lost.
Please explain.
And on this journey I prefer sites I can see while stopping for a beer break!
Something might then come along for them to ensure another win in 2028.
(I wasn't being entirely serious about the 10p reduction by the way. I imagine the win will come from some outrageously populist policy from Suella.My money is on capital sentencing for Rotherham taxi drivers.)
And why focus on that aspect of Mr Brown?
The 2019 conservative voters are going C45%, L16%, LD3%, G2%, R8%, Don't Know22%
The 2019 Labour voters are going C1%, L78%, LD3%, G5%, Don't Know11%
The 2019 LD voters are going C4%, L22%, LD50%, G3%, Don't Know20%.
If you compare the Opinium tables on the 2nd November 2022 (ie 6 months ago at the start of Rishi premiership) https://www.opinium.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/VI-2022-11-02-Observer-Data-Tables.xlsx
The 2019 conservative voters are going C46%, L14%, LD3%, G2%, R8%, Don't Know24%
The 2019 Labour voters are going C1%, L83%, LD2%, G3%, Don't Know7%
The 2019 LD voters are going C3%, L34%, LD37%, G6%, Don't Know18%.
So during the 6 month period there has been basically no change in the Conservative 2019 voters. Labour 2019 voters have slightly moved from Labour to Don't Know (the Starmer effect) and the LD 2019 voters have firmed back up to support the LDs.
So the only party having any impact is the LDs?
I had a bacon, emmental, chèvre, walnut, and rocquefort sauce galette
It was called the Cul D’Poule
I asked if that means “chicken’s ass”. Apparently it does
If you put the e back in (cul de poule), it means the same but is idiomatically a phrase that means “mixing bowl”
I love French idiom
I would be surprised if the extra money raised that way compensated for the loss of the double counting NI leads to, but I could easily be wrong. Most pensioners are not leading lives of luxury and many that are are drawing on capital, but there are some with higher incomes.
It would be worth doing for its own sake, as part of a wider simplification of the tax system, but it won't be.
But to be clear how much would be raised by extending individual NI to all income? Or by reducing employee/self-employed NI to 0% and increasing the basic rate of income tax by 13.8% to to 33.8%.?
If you'd said 'how much additional tax would people have to pay' that would have been different.
Meanwhile, I'd be careful about tonight's poll. It looks like a probable outlier. However, we shall see over the next few polls and most importantly the next Opinium one.
Expect the Local Elections will show a much lower Lab lead but also a much larger vote for the Lib Dems/Greens. Watch the Conservative figures. Anything less than several hundred gains and they are in real trouble. With several hundred gains on their 2019 effort (which got Mrs May fired remember) then they have a chance of pulling back. Especially if they over-perform in areas rich in competitive Parliamentary seats.
I have no problem with positive spin. Even if a political message is an outright lie, if you can make people believe it to be true then you are in business.
Tories are telling open lies. And their mince intake of 2019 are so dumb that they don't know its a lie. Which is why they sound so catastrophically out of touch.
Labour expect to win 400 extra seats
So we can assume that's their worst case planning...
Opinium's England VI is Labour 45%, Conservative 28%, Liberal Democrat 10%, Reform 8% and Green 7%. That's a 15% swing from Conservative to Labour which matches the similar samples from YouGov and Redfield & Wilton. The swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 8.5%.
A 15% swing would reduce the Conservative Parliamentary Party by more than half its present number to be around or just above its 1997 and 2001 strength but that of course doesn't allow for tactical voting.
You’re tempting fate.