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The timing of the Coronation could be helpful to the Tories – politicalbetting.com
The timing of the Coronation could be helpful to the Tories – politicalbetting.com
A week today and there will just be a few hours to go before the polls close in this year’s local elections. The votes will in some places be counted on the night and in other places will be counted on the Friday.
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I suspect LAB will be no further than 5% ahead of CON in the local elections on an adjusted national vote basis.
I remember the VONC on Boris Johnson was triggered the day after the jubilee celebrations.
So I got her sister pregnant.
You on the other hand would probably rather see the corrupt, inept Tories continue in power.
Does Starmer look like a Prime Minister-in-waiting?
✅ Does ~ 29% (-4)
❌ Does not ~ 51% (+6)
Worst rating for Starmer since August 2022.
Via
@YouGov
, 22-24 Apr (+/- vs 20 Mar)
For fear of finding something worse.
There haven't been many tears shed in Whitehall over the resignation of Dominic Raab.
Not just because he was "an absolute shit" (as recently described by a former cabinet colleague) but because Raab was also notorious for submitting Freedom Of Information requests to whichever department he found himself placed in, to find out what his officials had been saying about him.
“I've heard second-hand reports that something is happening at the Uddingston love nest right now. Additionally, I've been told that Sturgeon has now been interviewed under caution and that charges (plural) are being prepared for Sturgeon, Murrell and Beattie.”
https://twitter.com/erudite4unity/status/1651637347459506181?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
Actual charges against Sturgeon would be mind blowingly amusing
Wonder how that compares with other LOTO's like Blair, Hague, Cameron, Miliband and Jezza at this stage of the electoral cycle?
Q. Is Starmer doing well or badly?
✅ Well ~ 31% (-6)
❌ Badly ~ 49% (+7)
Lowest net approval for Starmer since August 2022.
Via
@YouGov
, 22-24 Apr (+/- vs 20 Mar)
Does - 99.9%
Does not - 0.1%
Source: PB comments.
Source Ballot Paper I just posted
When Turnout is even lower than normal he needs to look closer to home
I’ll be watching at a party on board the QE2, assuming I don’t get stuck in Istanbul.
EW: Ed Miliband was asked if asylum seekers are putting "immense pressure" on public services.
His reply: "Yes, it's a problem and it's got to be dealt with"
All 7011 other reasons relate to SKS;s leadership
Yesterday yougov published data from 18-19 April.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/04/26/voting-intention-con-28-lab-43-18-19-apr-2023
"When it comes to which party leader Britons think would make the best prime minister, Keir Starmer is favoured by 29% (+1 from 12-13 April) compared to Rishi Sunak's 26% (no change). Four in ten (41%) are unsure."
SKS stands a 20% chance of losing the next election. If he went around pleasing his critics this would rise to more like 60%. He faces a tough task, and it will get tougher.
Which is the problem with his strategy of pissing off the left to get Tory Lite voters who could easily decide just to stick with what they know when the pen hovers over the box
Net migration into this country has been and remains very large. It isn't feasible even to think about finding a way of taking all those with refugee status potential (100s of millions). Boats get the media attention. Every single one is arriving from a safe country, to which we cannot return them. The facts are different in every case. The Guardian and BBC can find cases that match their agenda. So can the Mail and the Sun.
Sending Paddington Bear to Rwanda is thinkable for the right but not for the left. SKS needs Tories to vote for him.
Cooper and Miliband are doing their best. As to what they would do in government. Like them I have no idea.
Did she have the foresight to call the polis and make an appointment, rather than wait for them to knock on her door one morning? They’ve already emptied her house of anything they might find useful.
https://twitter.com/Sir_Chazza/status/1651341915634257923/photo/1
It has been deeply concerning for the EveryDoctor team to have been contacted by an MP’s office, who are unhappy with us including information about their receipt of a donation from a person with links to private healthcare. I am appalled to report that their office attempted to insinuate that the inclusion of this information on our map was somehow because of a personal dislike which our team has for this politician. They also insinuated that we should behave in a partisan manner, and show a preference to this politician and the party they represent by removing information about this donation.
EveryDoctor is a non-partisan organisation. We are solely interested in advocating for patients, NHS staff, and the future of the NHS.. I’m appalled to report that I’ve been warned that this MP may tweet their displeasure at their inclusion on our map
We have verified the facts pertaining to this MP’s donation, and it shall remain on the map.It is appalling to witness the aggressive behaviour of some politicians towards campaigners.We’re not been bullied into hiding
Wes Streeting ditto
A very strong plurality will watch it, and polling numbers will go up significantly once it's happened, because it's very British and we're simply the best in the world at this sort of stuff.
Think about that for a moment.
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1651209524802654210
Deltapoll has the Labour lead at 13 - apart from Omnisis which had a 20-point lead, the current crop of polls has Labour ahead by 12-15 points. England polling has a 14% swing from December 2019.
The Conservatives and LDs are about where they were this time four years ago while Labour are much higher - you'd think Labour would make gains from those numbers.
That's why.
Of course, if Labour do still lose with them they'll have something close to a nervous breakdown and have a full fledged internal war again.
Local elections are likely to be the inflection point. A decent showing by the government and it could be more progress for Sunak. And remember it’s only the early results that matter because they set the news agenda. If there’s a red shift later on after a disappointing early Labour showing that won’t matter because nobody will be watching.
16% Yes
67% No
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/does-jeremy-corbyn-looks-like-a-prime-minister-in-waiting
De growth London.
Levelling down in action.
What is fringe today will be mainstream tomorrow. How long before these ideas become mainstream. A decade ?
https://twitter.com/degrowthlondon/status/1651320569420304384?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
In some ways it is a bit like the campaign for nuclear disarmanent though, it is a noble idea but can't actually ever happen due to flaws in the human situation.
A couple of weeks ago I was almost legless by the time I rolled home lol 😂
GEORGE DOBELL - EXCLUSIVE: Discussions about both the tournament's format and future are going to be encouraged while counties will be asked to consider altering the T20 Blast and the value of an FA Cup-style knockout involving the National Counties
https://twitter.com/TheCricketerMag/status/1651655086429315103
I'll be honest - I don't know what to make of Starmer. I don't watch a lot of news programmes so I get very little sense of there being an opposition view on most things. I do find the Conservative Party more than capable of shooting itself repeatedly in the feet with both barrels with comments from the likes of Greg Hands and the antics of Lee Anderson in Parliament yesterday offering a boorish, arrogant approach from a party which looks to have been too long in Government.
Yet there seem some willing to give them another five years for reasons about which I'm far from clear.
I do agree we need to start seeing meat on the bones from both main parties - Sunak's plodding managerialism is an improvement on his two predecessors which wouldn't be difficult but aspects of what he does and how he does it strike me as more about being reactive than proactive.
So it's all good news.
There's an odd space opening up on the left. A Corbyn gap.
This knockout is more likely to be played as a T20, though some prefer the idea of a 50-over competition. It is possible this knockout competition could replace the men's Hundred.
At the same time, if the Hundred survives, there will be discussion over changing the format to make it a 'conventional' T20 fixture featuring 120 deliveries per team. There is a resignation from the ECB that hopes that other nations would adopt the format are, at best, wishful thinking.
But it adds no changes are imminent, this is discussion only.
Equally, I don't think they would be 'discussing' it if they weren't very seriously considering changes.
- increasing inequality as wealth accumulates more rapidly than incomes grow: just a mathematical fact, unless accompanied by massive redistribution
- unemployment or underemployment, assuming technology continues to advance, or…
- flat or declining productivity if technology stands still, in other words people taking longer and using more resources to do productive tasks
- in an ageing population, ever less money available to governments to spend as the old age dependency ratio rises
In other words the dystopia of the late Soviet era.
Degrowth just doesn’t work on a societal level unless we are able happily to return to feudalism. So the only solution is technological clean growth.
I think I’ve posted before about the (often intense) royalism amongst much of the British Jewish community.
gardening 15%
auction/shopping channel 5%
shopping 12%
staring at wall 3%
DIY/cleaning car 8%
pub 10%
following PB 0.0001%
playing or watching sport 4%
reading 5%
etc.
edit: I forgot walking the dog. Most of the remainder.
I wouldn’t mind a two division T20 league,