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Not our King? – politicalbetting.com

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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,745

    Truss *did* surprise on the upside, once she got into the debates.

    Against all the previous evidence of her awkward speaking style, she came across as articulate, pointed, and confident.

    Sunak surprised on the downside with increasingly desperate waffle.

    Sunak repeated the same lines at each hustings, to the point where even he joked about it. Liz Truss at least had the wit to vary her opening (invariably by offering new roads to wherever she happened to be).
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,159
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why's the food inflation so sticky and why couldn't the collective eggheads whose job it is to predict this stuff forsee that it would be ?

    I note fertiliser peaked globally in April 2022.

    Is there profiteering going on by the supermarkets and manufacturers over and above their input inflation ? Lag ?

    Why wasn't the stickiness forecast ?

    It appears to just be very laggy, with this year’s food being produced with last year’s expensive fertiliser, transport costs still high, and a Ukraine war effect on global food commodity markets.
    But surely that is all forseeable ?
    In the short term, yes. It should have been obvious from last year’s fertiliser prices, and higher farm labour costs, that the output from last autumn’s harvest would be expensive.

    The failure of much of Ukraine’s and Russia’s harvest to find export markets was also foreseeable, with the war starting last February.

    Higher transport and unskilled labour costs (on farms, with food producers, and at supermarkets) feed through everywhere, as well as companies trying to at least hold margins.

    I know it’s been said before, but Clarkson’s farm show was actually really good at explaining the food industry. It was pretty much impossible to make money selling grain and livestock for food production, which is why the farmers of Oxfordshire wanted to open their own farm shop and restaurant.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,808
    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just at Gare du Nord.

    Leavers are morons.

    Why?
    Well it needs little explanation but in this instance because they have imposed upon the British travelling public extra checks and administrative burden and we are now, I note, limited to bringing back 18 litres of still wine into the country.

    The bad old days.
    But shirley...the benefits, the benefits....?
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,276
    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just at Gare du Nord.

    Leavers are morons.

    Why?
    Well it needs little explanation but in this instance because they have imposed upon the British travelling public extra checks and administrative burden and we are now, I note, limited to bringing back 18 litres of still wine into the country.

    The bad old days.
    You can now, however, claim the VAT back on those 18 litres at Gare du Nord.

    Not to mention that this limit is a choice of the UK goverment, which can be changed by your vote in our democracy.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,661

    Crime is highly unlikely to be among the public's top three issues at the next election. This is all shadow boxing….

    According to @YouGov it's currently behind immigration, Brexit, and the environment (and health and economy obvs).




    It's not even in the top ten issues in polling by @IpsosUK


    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1648649614839382019?s=20

    I suspect Labour have identified “crime” as a weakness and are trying to minimise it/go on the attack.

    Re crime. Rishi's boast at PMQs today that we'd added 20,000 new coppers since 2010 is surely wrong. He is remembering Boris's promise but forgetting that is merely to replace the cuts made by the Cameron government. The cuts, under Home Secretary Theresa May that meant Labour under Jeremy Corbyn came so close in 2017.
    He also declared, twice, that "crime has halved" since 2010 (I think) under the Tories. Either he's using a very narrow definition of crime, or he's making it up. Or both, of course.

    For somebody so keen on mathematics and spreadsheets, Sunak has quite a lot of form on just making numbers up.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,956

    Crime is highly unlikely to be among the public's top three issues at the next election. This is all shadow boxing….

    According to @YouGov it's currently behind immigration, Brexit, and the environment (and health and economy obvs).




    It's not even in the top ten issues in polling by @IpsosUK


    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1648649614839382019?s=20

    I suspect Labour have identified “crime” as a weakness and are trying to minimise it/go on the attack.

    Re crime. Rishi's boast at PMQs today that we'd added 20,000 new coppers since 2010 is surely wrong. He is remembering Boris's promise but forgetting that is merely to replace the cuts made by the Cameron government. The cuts, under Home Secretary Theresa May that meant Labour under Jeremy Corbyn came so close in 2017.
    That is the number added, what they have subtracted is separate. Mandatory remedial classes on semantics and spin for politicians has been paying off nicely.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,875
    I have just realised that I will be in Asia and then Africa for most if not all of Coronation Time

    I imagine the festivities will be equally fervent in our ex colonies, however, so I doubt I shall miss out on much. The joy will be universal. Everyone rightly loves the British and our monarchy, most of them secretly want us back to rule them. I’ve heard this said to me several times after I’ve drunk 14 gins and fallen into a hallucinatory fugue state
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,077
    Theory: France would prefer much of eastern Europe to be under Russian hegemony so that 'Europe' would be more Franco-centric. The last thing they need is a strong westward facing Ukraine. I fear this is at least part of the calculation behind preferring a stalemate in the war to a Ukrainian victory.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,326

    Crime is highly unlikely to be among the public's top three issues at the next election. This is all shadow boxing….

    According to @YouGov it's currently behind immigration, Brexit, and the environment (and health and economy obvs).




    It's not even in the top ten issues in polling by @IpsosUK


    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1648649614839382019?s=20

    I suspect Labour have identified “crime” as a weakness and are trying to minimise it/go on the attack.

    Re crime. Rishi's boast at PMQs today that we'd added 20,000 new coppers since 2010 is surely wrong. He is remembering Boris's promise but forgetting that is merely to replace the cuts made by the Cameron government. The cuts, under Home Secretary Theresa May that meant Labour under Jeremy Corbyn came so close in 2017.
    He also declared, twice, that "crime has halved" since 2010 (I think) under the Tories. Either he's using a very narrow definition of crime, or he's making it up. Or both, of course.

    For somebody so keen on mathematics and spreadsheets, Sunak has quite a lot of form on just making numbers up.
    It's an uncertain area (which in itself demonstrates a failure of policing.)
    Reported crimes are a lousy guide, given the uncertainty over reporting, and fraud (particularly the rapidly growing online variety) is also difficult to quantify.

    I think you could claim almost anything and have some sort of justification for it.

    Murder stats, which are difficult to fudge, are a good guide for some uses.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just at Gare du Nord.

    Leavers are morons.

    Why?
    Well it needs little explanation but in this instance because they have imposed upon the British travelling public extra checks and administrative burden and we are now, I note, limited to bringing back 18 litres of still wine into the country.

    The bad old days.
    The restriction on bringing back for personal use is from Customs and Excise - they fought a long battle in this while we in the EU, and it’s become an almost religious issue for them.
    One of the reasons why I voted to leave the EU is that the goons at Dover acted as though we weren't in a customs union with the rest of the EU.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,161
    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,956

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
    Nah if someone beats Trump, it will either be himself or a bystander who watches others take him down first, but get hurt too much to win themselves. Unsurprisingly not many are willing to be first one to criticise him and take the incoming fire.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,325
    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    Or former VP Pence who is working Iowa hard

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11908719/Pence-make-eighth-trip-Iowa-mulls-2024-bid.html
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,432
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Despite a typical thread header from ardent Republican TSE I don't think these numbers should worry the monarchy. About half the population will still watch or take part in celebrating the coronation guaranteeing it huge viewing figures still and it will also bring in lots of tourism.

    Remember too Charles and Camilla are most popular with their fellow pensioners, so no surprises that generation are the ones most interested in their coronation. William and Kate are popular across the generations though. Longer term constitutional monarchy will also be preferred over a President Johnson or President Blair

    The popularity of the monarchy can only be rationally measured by comparisons (with detail) with the alternatives.
    Indeed. A recent German poll had 8% in favour of Germany becoming a monarchy.
    The current German President is a non entity barely anyone outside Germany has heard of who only got the job as a consolation prize after Merkel beat him for the Chancellry in 2013
    Yes the "do you really want a non-entity as head of state?" is at least a valid, and interesting, argument. The often-repeated "do you really want President Blair?" is just bullshit.

    But in terms of the popularity of constitutional monarchies or parliamentary republics (the question raised by algakirk):

    https://www.stern.de/politik/monarchie-umfrage--acht-prozent-der-deutschen-wuenschen-sich-einen-koenig-33300074.html

    89% of Germans oppose a constitutional monarchy and 8% are in favour

    Which I think makes the status quo in Germany a bit more popular than the status quo in the UK.

    Clearly most people in Germany aren't that bothered about having a non-entity as head of state. And most people in both countries would keep things as they are in terms of head of state. Which is probably fairly rational of most people, even though I don't like the idea of institionalised hereditary privilege.
    I don't care. I am not German.

    Given one of their Presidents was one Adolf Hitler within the last 100 years we don't need lectures from them on our constitutional monarchy!!!
    Quite right, unlike our own dear royal family.
    Must be in the genes..


    George VI and the King of Sweden were the only non Fascist or Communist leaders in Europe by mid WW2. Switzerland was neutral but doesn't really have a President only first amongst equals of the Confederation and Ireland was also neutral but President De Valera signed the condolence book for Hitler in May 1945 at the German embassy
    Yeah, Georgie & Winnie had seen the red tinged light by that point.





  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,326

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
    I agree, and have said so before.
    Unless they're just running to be picked as VP (and who the hell wants to be Trump's VP ?), the only chance they have is to attack him.

    Optimising the timing of that is hard, but they can't leave it too long.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,348
    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just at Gare du Nord.

    Leavers are morons.

    Why?
    Well it needs little explanation but in this instance because they have imposed upon the British travelling public extra checks and administrative burden and we are now, I note, limited to bringing back 18 litres of still wine into the country.

    The bad old days.
    The restriction on bringing back for personal use is from Customs and Excise - they fought a long battle in this while we in the EU, and it’s become an almost religious issue for them.
    One of the reasons why I voted to leave the EU is that the goons at Dover acted as though we weren't in a customs union with the rest of the EU.
    An old saying containing the words face, cut, nose and spite comes to mind.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,183

    Carnyx said:

    CPI inflation remains stubbornly high at 10.1% - and there are two main reasons.

    The first is the price of putting a roof over your head - up 26.1% over the last 12 months

    The second is spiralling food price inflation - which at 19.1% during the year to March is at a 45-year high.

    Driven by food and housing costs, this inflation data remains politically explosive.

    This cost-of-living crisis is still very much with us - and will continue to dominate politics, as it has for the past 18 months.



    https://twitter.com/LiamHalligan/status/1648577148003680256?s=20

    THanks for that - very interesting. Food I had expected but not housing, not to that degree.
    Reportedly BTL landlords have increased rents to cover mortgage repayments as interest rates were raised in order to combat inflation, or something.
    The 3% rent cap in Scotland will obviously be going down like a cup of cold sick with the public. Well it will be once the media have finished with it.

    'Stampede of BTL landlords from the vital rentier sector!'
    OTOH the SNP did actually provide some more social housing.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,543

    Crime is highly unlikely to be among the public's top three issues at the next election. This is all shadow boxing….

    According to @YouGov it's currently behind immigration, Brexit, and the environment (and health and economy obvs).




    It's not even in the top ten issues in polling by @IpsosUK


    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1648649614839382019?s=20

    I suspect Labour have identified “crime” as a weakness and are trying to minimise it/go on the attack.

    Re crime. Rishi's boast at PMQs today that we'd added 20,000 new coppers since 2010 is surely wrong. He is remembering Boris's promise but forgetting that is merely to replace the cuts made by the Cameron government. The cuts, under Home Secretary Theresa May that meant Labour under Jeremy Corbyn came so close in 2017.
    I think technically is can be right 20,00 new officers recruited. That 20,000 were also lost initially is also true. If he were claiming that he had taken the total number of officers in 2010 and increased it by 20,000, that would be a lie.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,745

    Theory: France would prefer much of eastern Europe to be under Russian hegemony so that 'Europe' would be more Franco-centric. The last thing they need is a strong westward facing Ukraine. I fear this is at least part of the calculation behind preferring a stalemate in the war to a Ukrainian victory.

    You are begging the question of France wanting stalemate in the war. Then what France wants in Eastern Europe is anyone's guess but we should note that although it has blocked the accession of Albania, France clearly did not reject those Eastern European countries that are now part of the EU. I'd agree that France probably does think France should run the EU.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    edited April 2023
    If I hear one more journalist day something along the lines of “prices were rising at 10% last month” I might cry. Do none of them understand how year on year figures work? And why does no one look at at the monthly figures in the ONS release, which it helpfully walks through.

    My version is not a rosier picture, it’s looking at and understanding the actual numbers. If only they’d all done maths to the age of 18.

    Edit - and while I am at it, no one who is used those numbers at the absolute truth gets to highlight all the issues with CPI as a measure in the future when it looks too low.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,875

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Despite a typical thread header from ardent Republican TSE I don't think these numbers should worry the monarchy. About half the population will still watch or take part in celebrating the coronation guaranteeing it huge viewing figures still and it will also bring in lots of tourism.

    Remember too Charles and Camilla are most popular with their fellow pensioners, so no surprises that generation are the ones most interested in their coronation. William and Kate are popular across the generations though. Longer term constitutional monarchy will also be preferred over a President Johnson or President Blair

    The popularity of the monarchy can only be rationally measured by comparisons (with detail) with the alternatives.
    Indeed. A recent German poll had 8% in favour of Germany becoming a monarchy.
    The current German President is a non entity barely anyone outside Germany has heard of who only got the job as a consolation prize after Merkel beat him for the Chancellry in 2013
    Yes the "do you really want a non-entity as head of state?" is at least a valid, and interesting, argument. The often-repeated "do you really want President Blair?" is just bullshit.

    But in terms of the popularity of constitutional monarchies or parliamentary republics (the question raised by algakirk):

    https://www.stern.de/politik/monarchie-umfrage--acht-prozent-der-deutschen-wuenschen-sich-einen-koenig-33300074.html

    89% of Germans oppose a constitutional monarchy and 8% are in favour

    Which I think makes the status quo in Germany a bit more popular than the status quo in the UK.

    Clearly most people in Germany aren't that bothered about having a non-entity as head of state. And most people in both countries would keep things as they are in terms of head of state. Which is probably fairly rational of most people, even though I don't like the idea of institionalised hereditary privilege.
    I don't care. I am not German.

    Given one of their Presidents was one Adolf Hitler within the last 100 years we don't need lectures from them on our constitutional monarchy!!!
    Quite right, unlike our own dear royal family.
    Must be in the genes..


    George VI and the King of Sweden were the only non Fascist or Communist leaders in Europe by mid WW2. Switzerland was neutral but doesn't really have a President only first amongst equals of the Confederation and Ireland was also neutral but President De Valera signed the condolence book for Hitler in May 1945 at the German embassy
    Yeah, Georgie & Winnie had seen the red tinged light by that point.





    November 1943?

    Yes, that would have been ideal timing for Britain to turn on the USSR. Perhaps Churchill could have personally kneed Stalin in the goolies, instead of giving him a sword, thereby shoring up the allied effort against Nazism at a crucial moment
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,326

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
    Nah if someone beats Trump, it will either be himself or a bystander who watches others take him down first, but get hurt too much to win themselves. Unsurprisingly not many are willing to be first one to criticise him and take the incoming fire.
    That's what the putzes tried last time.
    It just made them look like wimps.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,647
    ClippP said:

    Driver said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Despite a typical thread header from ardent Republican TSE I don't think these numbers should worry the monarchy. About half the population will still watch or take part in celebrating the coronation guaranteeing it huge viewing figures still and it will also bring in lots of tourism.

    Remember too Charles and Camilla are most popular with their fellow pensioners, so no surprises that generation are the ones most interested in their coronation. William and Kate are popular across the generations though. Longer term constitutional monarchy will also be preferred over a President Johnson or President Blair

    The popularity of the monarchy can only be rationally measured by comparisons (with detail) with the alternatives.
    Indeed. A recent German poll had 8% in favour of Germany becoming a monarchy.
    The current German President is a non entity barely anyone outside Germany has heard of who only got the job as a consolation prize after Merkel beat him for the Chancellry in 2013
    Yes the "do you really want a non-entity as head of state?" is at least a valid, and interesting, argument. The often-repeated "do you really want President Blair?" is just bullshit.

    But in terms of the popularity of constitutional monarchies or parliamentary republics (the question raised by algakirk):

    https://www.stern.de/politik/monarchie-umfrage--acht-prozent-der-deutschen-wuenschen-sich-einen-koenig-33300074.html

    89% of Germans oppose a constitutional monarchy and 8% are in favour

    Which I think makes the status quo in Germany a bit more popular than the status quo in the UK.

    Clearly most people in Germany aren't that bothered about having a non-entity as head of state. And most people in both countries would keep things as they are in terms of head of state. Which is probably fairly rational of most people, even though I don't like the idea of institionalised hereditary privilege.
    For most people, there's no reason to change. "But they aren't elected!" is a niche viewpoint - and naturally invites the President Blair riposte.
    But why would Bliar be elected when he is so unpopular? Monarchists please explain!
    He was very popular indeed at one stage. But that was a long time ago. Before you were born, probably.
    Er, no. Some people say Sunil was born in 1975!
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,737

    Crime is highly unlikely to be among the public's top three issues at the next election. This is all shadow boxing….

    According to @YouGov it's currently behind immigration, Brexit, and the environment (and health and economy obvs).




    It's not even in the top ten issues in polling by @IpsosUK


    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1648649614839382019?s=20

    I suspect Labour have identified “crime” as a weakness and are trying to minimise it/go on the attack.

    Re crime. Rishi's boast at PMQs today that we'd added 20,000 new coppers since 2010 is surely wrong. He is remembering Boris's promise but forgetting that is merely to replace the cuts made by the Cameron government. The cuts, under Home Secretary Theresa May that meant Labour under Jeremy Corbyn came so close in 2017.
    He also declared, twice, that "crime has halved" since 2010 (I think) under the Tories. Either he's using a very narrow definition of crime, or he's making it up. Or both, of course.

    For somebody so keen on mathematics and spreadsheets, Sunak has quite a lot of form on just making numbers up.
    Are we totally sure that Rishi isn't our first AI PM?
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162

    The Murdoch Press, eh?


    Nicked Nat
    Murrell whacked
    Give a van a home
    This old girl
    Came back alone

    Needs some work
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,432
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ho ho ho.


    Wow. Has a political reputation ever soured so much and so fast before this? I'm struggling to think of a precedent.
    Liz Truss, started badly, ended in a total disaster.
    No, most sensible people (ie not Leon) already knew Truss was an incompetent fanatic whose rule would be an utter disaster. She was slightly worse than expected but not much.
    Point of order. When Truss did that first debate I said “my god she’s mad and terrible” or words to that effect. I can go and find them if you really insist. I maintained that negativity for the whole time until for some drunken reason, one night, I said “she might surprise on the upside” along with equally positive nonsense. I think I was trying to cheer myself up

    I am happy to have my “upside” gibberish thrown at me with vigour. But it is factually wrong to say I thought she was good from the get go. I really really didn’t
    That’s fair. Your encomiums to Putin were far more gushing.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,126

    Theory: France would prefer much of eastern Europe to be under Russian hegemony so that 'Europe' would be more Franco-centric. The last thing they need is a strong westward facing Ukraine. I fear this is at least part of the calculation behind preferring a stalemate in the war to a Ukrainian victory.

    The latest wheeze in the (Russophone) Ukrainian media is that after the SMO is over and we can all laugh about it Zelly is going to take Ukraine (minus Kherson, Zaporijeeya and the other two) into some sort of confederation with Poland thereby fast tracking most of Ukraine into the EU/NATO. I can't see Macron (or Le Pen) standing for it but who knows?
  • Options

    Crime is highly unlikely to be among the public's top three issues at the next election. This is all shadow boxing….

    According to @YouGov it's currently behind immigration, Brexit, and the environment (and health and economy obvs).




    It's not even in the top ten issues in polling by @IpsosUK


    https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1648649614839382019?s=20

    I suspect Labour have identified “crime” as a weakness and are trying to minimise it/go on the attack.

    Re crime. Rishi's boast at PMQs today that we'd added 20,000 new coppers since 2010 is surely wrong. He is remembering Boris's promise but forgetting that is merely to replace the cuts made by the Cameron government. The cuts, under Home Secretary Theresa May that meant Labour under Jeremy Corbyn came so close in 2017.
    I think technically is can be right 20,00 new officers recruited. That 20,000 were also lost initially is also true. If he were claiming that he had taken the total number of officers in 2010 and increased it by 20,000, that would be a lie.
    It is a lie. But he thinks voters are too stupid to know it is a lie. So he lies.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,326
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    Or former VP Pence who is working Iowa hard

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11908719/Pence-make-eighth-trip-Iowa-mulls-2024-bid.html
    You're still flogging that dead horse I see.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,325
    edited April 2023

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Despite a typical thread header from ardent Republican TSE I don't think these numbers should worry the monarchy. About half the population will still watch or take part in celebrating the coronation guaranteeing it huge viewing figures still and it will also bring in lots of tourism.

    Remember too Charles and Camilla are most popular with their fellow pensioners, so no surprises that generation are the ones most interested in their coronation. William and Kate are popular across the generations though. Longer term constitutional monarchy will also be preferred over a President Johnson or President Blair

    The popularity of the monarchy can only be rationally measured by comparisons (with detail) with the alternatives.
    Indeed. A recent German poll had 8% in favour of Germany becoming a monarchy.
    The current German President is a non entity barely anyone outside Germany has heard of who only got the job as a consolation prize after Merkel beat him for the Chancellry in 2013
    Yes the "do you really want a non-entity as head of state?" is at least a valid, and interesting, argument. The often-repeated "do you really want President Blair?" is just bullshit.

    But in terms of the popularity of constitutional monarchies or parliamentary republics (the question raised by algakirk):

    https://www.stern.de/politik/monarchie-umfrage--acht-prozent-der-deutschen-wuenschen-sich-einen-koenig-33300074.html

    89% of Germans oppose a constitutional monarchy and 8% are in favour

    Which I think makes the status quo in Germany a bit more popular than the status quo in the UK.

    Clearly most people in Germany aren't that bothered about having a non-entity as head of state. And most people in both countries would keep things as they are in terms of head of state. Which is probably fairly rational of most people, even though I don't like the idea of institionalised hereditary privilege.
    I don't care. I am not German.

    Given one of their Presidents was one Adolf Hitler within the last 100 years we don't need lectures from them on our constitutional monarchy!!!
    Quite right, unlike our own dear royal family.
    Must be in the genes..


    George VI and the King of Sweden were the only non Fascist or Communist leaders in Europe by mid WW2. Switzerland was neutral but doesn't really have a President only first amongst equals of the Confederation and Ireland was also neutral but President De Valera signed the condolence book for Hitler in May 1945 at the German embassy
    Yeah, Georgie & Winnie had seen the red tinged light by that point.





    They allied with the Soviets to beat Hitler, the UK was not under Soviet, Nazi or Fascist rule however. One of the few European nations that wasn't in 1943
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,159
    Wiki has four declared candidates, and seven more who are thinking about it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

    Donald Trump
    Nikki Haley
    Asa Hutchinson (Govenor of Ankansas)
    Vivek Ramaswarmy (Businessman)

    Tim Scott (Senator, NC)
    Mike Pence
    RonDeSantis
    Chris Christie
    Larry Elder
    Mike Rodgers (former Rep, Mississippi)
    Chris Sununu (Govenor, NH)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,326

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just at Gare du Nord.

    Leavers are morons.

    Why?
    Well it needs little explanation but in this instance because they have imposed upon the British travelling public extra checks and administrative burden and we are now, I note, limited to bringing back 18 litres of still wine into the country.

    The bad old days.
    The restriction on bringing back for personal use is from Customs and Excise - they fought a long battle in this while we in the EU, and it’s become an almost religious issue for them.
    One of the reasons why I voted to leave the EU is that the goons at Dover acted as though we weren't in a customs union with the rest of the EU.
    An old saying containing the words face, cut, nose and spite comes to mind.
    Also, 'WTF' ?
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,340
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
    I agree, and have said so before.
    Unless they're just running to be picked as VP (and who the hell wants to be Trump's VP ?), the only chance they have is to attack him.

    Optimising the timing of that is hard, but they can't leave it too long.
    It would be interesting to know what possible Republican candidates think about the attempts on the previous thread to stop Trump getting on the ballot *for Republican primaries*. It seems like a hopeless attempt, bound to fail, and maybe will just make it more likely that Trump is the candidate - which might be why the plaintiffs are doing it as they might think Trump will lose against Biden. But maybe it's possible that he would actually fail to get on the ballot in some places? Which could possibly help a non-Trump Republican. Or at least the uncertainty might give them space? The plaintiffs also claim they want to force Trump to testify under oath about his part in the insurrection but I have no idea how likely that is.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,325
    edited April 2023
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    Or former VP Pence who is working Iowa hard

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11908719/Pence-make-eighth-trip-Iowa-mulls-2024-bid.html
    You're still flogging that dead horse I see.
    It is a great longshot bet though if Trump is convicted and DeSantis collapses. Pence is also popular with evangelicals which the Iowa GOP caucuses are full of.

    The last time a President lost his re election attempt after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Carter in 1980, his VP Mondale ended up nominee v President Reagan in 1984

  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,956
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
    Nah if someone beats Trump, it will either be himself or a bystander who watches others take him down first, but get hurt too much to win themselves. Unsurprisingly not many are willing to be first one to criticise him and take the incoming fire.
    That's what the putzes tried last time.
    It just made them look like wimps.
    Sometimes there are games you cannot win, at least not without a lot of luck. Beating Trump in a primary where 80% identify as MAGA Trumpists and he will attack you with random falsehoods if you stand up to him is one of those games.
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,179
    Dura_Ace said:

    Theory: France would prefer much of eastern Europe to be under Russian hegemony so that 'Europe' would be more Franco-centric. The last thing they need is a strong westward facing Ukraine. I fear this is at least part of the calculation behind preferring a stalemate in the war to a Ukrainian victory.

    The latest wheeze in the (Russophone) Ukrainian media is that after the SMO is over and we can all laugh about it Zelly is going to take Ukraine (minus Kherson, Zaporijeeya and the other two) into some sort of confederation with Poland thereby fast tracking most of Ukraine into the EU/NATO. I can't see Macron (or Le Pen) standing for it but who knows?
    Still pushing your Putinista sympathies I see.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,813
    SandraMc said:

    Rather than tax my mind with weighty matters of constitution, the burning question for me is: What shall I bring to the local street party? Residents of odd-numbered houses (which includes me) are requested to bring savoury items to share, evens to bring sweet. The Coronation Quiche looks too much of a faff so it will have to be shop bought. Mini pork pies, sausage rolls, scotch eggs? Who is the culinary expert on this board?

    Take a load of Gregg's Vegan Sausage Rolls.

    That should trigger a fair few of the Union Jack Y-fronts brigade.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,340
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    Or former VP Pence who is working Iowa hard

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11908719/Pence-make-eighth-trip-Iowa-mulls-2024-bid.html
    You're still flogging that dead horse I see.
    It is a great longshore bet though if Trump is convicted and DeSantis collapses. Pence is also popular with evangelicals which the Iowa GOP caucuses are full of.

    The last time a President lost his re election attempt after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Carter in 1980, his VP Mondale ended up nominee v President Reagan in 1984

    True, and the last time an odd-numbered Charles was king he was executed for treason. Will history repeat itself?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,326
    Sandpit said:

    Wiki has four declared candidates, and seven more who are thinking about it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

    Donald Trump
    Nikki Haley
    Asa Hutchinson (Govenor of Ankansas)
    Vivek Ramaswarmy (Businessman)

    Tim Scott (Senator, NC)
    Mike Pence
    RonDeSantis
    Chris Christie
    Larry Elder
    Mike Rodgers (former Rep, Mississippi)
    Chris Sununu (Govenor, NH)

    Christie is already going after Trump.
    Though is definitely a rank outsider.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,875
    edited April 2023

    The Murdoch Press, eh?


    Nicked Nat
    Murrell whacked
    Give a van a home
    This old girl
    Came back alone

    Needs some work
    Not bad, not bad!

    However, when googling that rhyme just now, curious as to its provenance, I discovered this:

    "What does the rhyme Knick Knack Paddy Whack give a dog a bone mean?

    It refers to the variety of punishments meted out on the Irish poor during the Great Famine of 1846-53, when a million starved to death and another million were forced to emigrate,"

    Can that be true? Did we, as kids, cheerfully sing about a million dead people?

    EDIT: others say this is a load of gallus bahookie, and the rhyme is just about drunk people in London, or possibly a stream of sexual innuendi (certainly it is used that way by the pop combo Squeeze as in "give the dog a bone")
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,326
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    Or former VP Pence who is working Iowa hard

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11908719/Pence-make-eighth-trip-Iowa-mulls-2024-bid.html
    You're still flogging that dead horse I see.
    It is a great longshot bet though if Trump is convicted and DeSantis collapses. Pence is also popular with evangelicals which the Iowa GOP caucuses are full of.

    The last time a President lost his re election attempt after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Carter in 1980, his VP Mondale ended up nominee v President Reagan in 1984

    It's not utterly impossible, but are his odds in three figures yet ?
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,401

    The Murdoch Press, eh?


    Nicked Nat
    Murrell whacked
    Give a van a home
    This old girl
    Came back alone

    Needs some work
    Sewing mailbags?
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,179
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    Or former VP Pence who is working Iowa hard

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11908719/Pence-make-eighth-trip-Iowa-mulls-2024-bid.html
    You're still flogging that dead horse I see.
    It is a great longshot bet though if Trump is convicted and DeSantis collapses. Pence is also popular with evangelicals which the Iowa GOP caucuses are full of.

    The last time a President lost his re election attempt after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Carter in 1980, his VP Mondale ended up nominee v President Reagan in 1984

    It's not utterly impossible, but are his odds in three figures yet ?
    If Trump is convicted he will increase his poll numbers. Republicans love right wing crimimals.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,183
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    EIIR is a tough, almost impossible, act to follow.

    So, we had monarchs for a 1000 years before her. Good and bad
    Who's this "we"?

  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,745
    Leon said:

    The Murdoch Press, eh?


    Nicked Nat
    Murrell whacked
    Give a van a home
    This old girl
    Came back alone

    Needs some work
    Not bad, not bad!

    However, when googling that rhyme just now, curious as to its provenance, I discovered this:

    "What does the rhyme Knick Knack Paddy Whack give a dog a bone mean?

    It refers to the variety of punishments meted out on the Irish poor during the Great Famine of 1846-53, when a million starved to death and another million were forced to emigrate,"

    Can that be true? Did we, as kids, cheerfully sing about a million dead people?

    It could be true but almost certainly is false. Presumably you found this and missed the word fanciful in the credit:-
    https://retwords.wordpress.com/2015/01/21/the-truth-behind-knick-knack-paddywack/

    Perhaps you need a search engine that is *not* powered by AI.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,875

    Leon said:

    The Murdoch Press, eh?


    Nicked Nat
    Murrell whacked
    Give a van a home
    This old girl
    Came back alone

    Needs some work
    Not bad, not bad!

    However, when googling that rhyme just now, curious as to its provenance, I discovered this:

    "What does the rhyme Knick Knack Paddy Whack give a dog a bone mean?

    It refers to the variety of punishments meted out on the Irish poor during the Great Famine of 1846-53, when a million starved to death and another million were forced to emigrate,"

    Can that be true? Did we, as kids, cheerfully sing about a million dead people?

    It could be true but almost certainly is false. Presumably you found this and missed the word fanciful in the credit:-
    https://retwords.wordpress.com/2015/01/21/the-truth-behind-knick-knack-paddywack/

    Perhaps you need a search engine that is *not* powered by AI.
    Er, see my immediate edit, below
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,326

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
    Nah if someone beats Trump, it will either be himself or a bystander who watches others take him down first, but get hurt too much to win themselves. Unsurprisingly not many are willing to be first one to criticise him and take the incoming fire.
    That's what the putzes tried last time.
    It just made them look like wimps.
    Sometimes there are games you cannot win, at least not without a lot of luck. Beating Trump in a primary where 80% identify as MAGA Trumpists and he will attack you with random falsehoods if you stand up to him is one of those games.
    That is to accept he's inevitable.
    In which case they shouldn't waste their time and money.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,340

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Despite a typical thread header from ardent Republican TSE I don't think these numbers should worry the monarchy. About half the population will still watch or take part in celebrating the coronation guaranteeing it huge viewing figures still and it will also bring in lots of tourism.

    Remember too Charles and Camilla are most popular with their fellow pensioners, so no surprises that generation are the ones most interested in their coronation. William and Kate are popular across the generations though. Longer term constitutional monarchy will also be preferred over a President Johnson or President Blair

    The popularity of the monarchy can only be rationally measured by comparisons (with detail) with the alternatives.
    Indeed. A recent German poll had 8% in favour of Germany becoming a monarchy.
    The current German President is a non entity barely anyone outside Germany has heard of who only got the job as a consolation prize after Merkel beat him for the Chancellry in 2013
    Yes the "do you really want a non-entity as head of state?" is at least a valid, and interesting, argument. The often-repeated "do you really want President Blair?" is just bullshit.

    But in terms of the popularity of constitutional monarchies or parliamentary republics (the question raised by algakirk):

    https://www.stern.de/politik/monarchie-umfrage--acht-prozent-der-deutschen-wuenschen-sich-einen-koenig-33300074.html

    89% of Germans oppose a constitutional monarchy and 8% are in favour

    Which I think makes the status quo in Germany a bit more popular than the status quo in the UK.

    Clearly most people in Germany aren't that bothered about having a non-entity as head of state. And most people in both countries would keep things as they are in terms of head of state. Which is probably fairly rational of most people, even though I don't like the idea of institionalised hereditary privilege.
    I don't care. I am not German.

    Given one of their Presidents was one Adolf Hitler within the last 100 years we don't need lectures from them on our constitutional monarchy!!!
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Despite a typical thread header from ardent Republican TSE I don't think these numbers should worry the monarchy. About half the population will still watch or take part in celebrating the coronation guaranteeing it huge viewing figures still and it will also bring in lots of tourism.

    Remember too Charles and Camilla are most popular with their fellow pensioners, so no surprises that generation are the ones most interested in their coronation. William and Kate are popular across the generations though. Longer term constitutional monarchy will also be preferred over a President Johnson or President Blair

    The popularity of the monarchy can only be rationally measured by comparisons (with detail) with the alternatives.
    Indeed. A recent German poll had 8% in favour of Germany becoming a monarchy.
    The current German President is a non entity barely anyone outside Germany has heard of who only got the job as a consolation prize after Merkel beat him for the Chancellry in 2013
    Yes the "do you really want a non-entity as head of state?" is at least a valid, and interesting, argument. The often-repeated "do you really want President Blair?" is just bullshit.

    But in terms of the popularity of constitutional monarchies or parliamentary republics (the question raised by algakirk):

    https://www.stern.de/politik/monarchie-umfrage--acht-prozent-der-deutschen-wuenschen-sich-einen-koenig-33300074.html

    89% of Germans oppose a constitutional monarchy and 8% are in favour

    Which I think makes the status quo in Germany a bit more popular than the status quo in the UK.

    Clearly most people in Germany aren't that bothered about having a non-entity as head of state. And most people in both countries would keep things as they are in terms of head of state. Which is probably fairly rational of most people, even though I don't like the idea of institionalised hereditary privilege.
    I don't care. I am not German.

    Given one of their Presidents was one Adolf Hitler within the last 100 years we don't need lectures from them on our constitutional monarchy!!!
    When was Hitler President?
    https://history.com/this-day-in-history/adolf-hitler-becomes-president-of-germany
    Noted. Wondered occasionally (very) what happened to the Presidency after Hindenburg died.
    I don't think he ever called himself 'president' rather 'Führer und Reichskanzler', but he became head of state in 1934.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,159

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
    Nah if someone beats Trump, it will either be himself or a bystander who watches others take him down first, but get hurt too much to win themselves. Unsurprisingly not many are willing to be first one to criticise him and take the incoming fire.
    That's what the putzes tried last time.
    It just made them look like wimps.
    Sometimes there are games you cannot win, at least not without a lot of luck. Beating Trump in a primary where 80% identify as MAGA Trumpists and he will attack you with random falsehoods if you stand up to him is one of those games.
    The thinking is that the larger the field, the more it benefits Trump. So the other candidates need to quickly whittle themselves down to no more than two.

    I still think DeSantis is no more than 50/50 to run.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,956
    edited April 2023
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
    Nah if someone beats Trump, it will either be himself or a bystander who watches others take him down first, but get hurt too much to win themselves. Unsurprisingly not many are willing to be first one to criticise him and take the incoming fire.
    That's what the putzes tried last time.
    It just made them look like wimps.
    Sometimes there are games you cannot win, at least not without a lot of luck. Beating Trump in a primary where 80% identify as MAGA Trumpists and he will attack you with random falsehoods if you stand up to him is one of those games.
    That is to accept he's inevitable.
    In which case they shouldn't waste their time and money.
    They make a lot of money on the journey in US politics. Its not inevitable Trump wins, but not in the power of any individual to stop him, and the pay offs dont reward co-operative behaviour between his main rivals.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,325
    edited April 2023
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    EIIR is a tough, almost impossible, act to follow.

    So, we had monarchs for a 1000 years before her. Good and bad
    Who's this "we"?

    Includes you Scots. Ironically when England became a republic under Cromwell in 1649, Scotland remained loyal to the Stuarts, Scots forming a key part of Prince Charles' army at the Battle of Worcester v Cromwell's forces
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wiki has four declared candidates, and seven more who are thinking about it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

    Donald Trump
    Nikki Haley
    Asa Hutchinson (Govenor of Ankansas)
    Vivek Ramaswarmy (Businessman)

    Tim Scott (Senator, NC)
    Mike Pence
    RonDeSantis
    Chris Christie
    Larry Elder
    Mike Rodgers (former Rep, Mississippi)
    Chris Sununu (Govenor, NH)

    Christie is already going after Trump.
    Though is definitely a rank outsider.
    I suspect a few are currently there simply to provide options to attack Trump in different ways until something sticks with the Trumpity Republican membership.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,183

    SandraMc said:

    Rather than tax my mind with weighty matters of constitution, the burning question for me is: What shall I bring to the local street party? Residents of odd-numbered houses (which includes me) are requested to bring savoury items to share, evens to bring sweet. The Coronation Quiche looks too much of a faff so it will have to be shop bought. Mini pork pies, sausage rolls, scotch eggs? Who is the culinary expert on this board?

    Take a load of Gregg's Vegan Sausage Rolls.

    That should trigger a fair few of the Union Jack Y-fronts brigade.
    I'd be surprised if they even notice, given what sausage rolls are usually like, and the general popularity of the Greggs vegan todgers.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,340

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
    Nah if someone beats Trump, it will either be himself or a bystander who watches others take him down first, but get hurt too much to win themselves. Unsurprisingly not many are willing to be first one to criticise him and take the incoming fire.
    That's what the putzes tried last time.
    It just made them look like wimps.
    Sometimes there are games you cannot win, at least not without a lot of luck. Beating Trump in a primary where 80% identify as MAGA Trumpists and he will attack you with random falsehoods if you stand up to him is one of those games.
    That is to accept he's inevitable.
    In which case they shouldn't waste their time and money.
    They make a lot of money on the journey in US politics. Its not inevitable Trump wins, but not in the power of any individual to stop him, and the pay offs dont reward co-operative behaviour between his main rivals.
    Wasn't Trump's own candidacy seen by many as just a money-making scam at first?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,607
    Reasons leavers are morons pt.94

    "Oh but we can vote out our own politicians, unlike those of the EU" - ie fundamentally misunderstanding our relationship with the EU.

    It was a club. One with rules. And for 40-odd years we wanted to be a member of that club and follow those rules. Then we didn't and hence left. No biggie (aside from the economic damage, etc). It was about the rules, not sovereignty.

    We were sovereign before, during and after our membership of the EU.

    So say "we didn't like the rules so left" but don't say "we weren't sovereign in the EU".

    Morons.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,735
    There is quite a list Dominion and Smartmatic are suing and presumably they are all probably going the same way with a few bankruptcies on the way, but why isn't Trump on that list. Struggling to understand why not.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,875
    THIS guy thinks "This old man" is just a counting rhyme, but it DOES contain an ethnic slur against the Irish


    https://www.wordorigins.org/big-list-entries/paddywhack

    OTHERS say it is all to do with Irish tinkers playing spoons made of bones
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,110
    I don’t think De Santis will run and will wait this out till 2028 .

    His star has also faded somewhat and signing the 6 week abortion ban in Florida was a poisoned chalice delivered by the GOP lunatics in the state .

    If De Santis does run then that move will be a gift to the Dems .


  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,126
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
    Nah if someone beats Trump, it will either be himself or a bystander who watches others take him down first, but get hurt too much to win themselves. Unsurprisingly not many are willing to be first one to criticise him and take the incoming fire.
    That's what the putzes tried last time.
    It just made them look like wimps.
    Sometimes there are games you cannot win, at least not without a lot of luck. Beating Trump in a primary where 80% identify as MAGA Trumpists and he will attack you with random falsehoods if you stand up to him is one of those games.
    The thinking is that the larger the field, the more it benefits Trump. So the other candidates need to quickly whittle themselves down to no more than two.

    I still think DeSantis is no more than 50/50 to run.
    50/50 candidates don't have Super PACs raising $30m in four weeks.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,326
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
    Nah if someone beats Trump, it will either be himself or a bystander who watches others take him down first, but get hurt too much to win themselves. Unsurprisingly not many are willing to be first one to criticise him and take the incoming fire.
    That's what the putzes tried last time.
    It just made them look like wimps.
    Sometimes there are games you cannot win, at least not without a lot of luck. Beating Trump in a primary where 80% identify as MAGA Trumpists and he will attack you with random falsehoods if you stand up to him is one of those games.
    The thinking is that the larger the field, the more it benefits Trump. So the other candidates need to quickly whittle themselves down to no more than two.

    I still think DeSantis is no more than 50/50 to run.
    Because he messed up.
    Trying to portray himself as the saner, but even more extreme version of Trump (perhaps he genuinely is ?) hasn't worked - and has alienated the bits of the party who put up with Trump only because they had to. And hasn't won over enough Trump supporters.

    That Florida representatives have recently endorsed Trump is not great for him.
    DeSantis is in a rut. His trek to D.C. didn’t help.
    At a big moment for him, the Florida governor was overshadowed by rival Donald Trump’s string of endorsements.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/19/desantis-dc-trump-endorsement-00092695
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,875
    TOPPING said:

    Reasons leavers are morons pt.94

    "Oh but we can vote out our own politicians, unlike those of the EU" - ie fundamentally misunderstanding our relationship with the EU.

    It was a club. One with rules. And for 40-odd years we wanted to be a member of that club and follow those rules. Then we didn't and hence left. No biggie (aside from the economic damage, etc). It was about the rules, not sovereignty.

    We were sovereign before, during and after our membership of the EU.

    So say "we didn't like the rules so left" but don't say "we weren't sovereign in the EU".

    Morons.

    You've said this angry red-faced nonsense about a trillion times, doesn't make it any truer than it was the first time

    I do, however, note that there are calendrical clusters when you say this piffle more often, it is generally when you are boarding or departing on the Eurostar

    You could try flying?
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,087

    Academics have begun a three-year government-funded study into the Post Office scandal and the role that the legal profession may have played.

    Researchers from two universities say they want to examine and learn from the conduct of lawyers in the Horizon IT affair which led to hundreds of postmasters being wrongly accused of fraud and theft.

    The project, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council, is led by Professor Richard Moorhead and Professor Rebecca Helm from the University of Exeter and Dr Karen Nokes from UCL. Together they aim to understand how the scandal was allowed to develop over 20 years and what implications it has for professional ethics and the in-house legal sector.

    Moorhead said: ‘The research will enable us to deepen our engagement with the victims affected by the scandal; ensure that the right lessons are learned about what went wrong and why; and work on practical strategies to reduce the chances of such terrible events happening again.’


    https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/news/research-begins-into-lawyers-role-in-post-office-scandal/5115768.article#.ZD_RxaqQTK0.twitter

    Good news! Richard Moorhead is very good.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,326

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
    Nah if someone beats Trump, it will either be himself or a bystander who watches others take him down first, but get hurt too much to win themselves. Unsurprisingly not many are willing to be first one to criticise him and take the incoming fire.
    That's what the putzes tried last time.
    It just made them look like wimps.
    Sometimes there are games you cannot win, at least not without a lot of luck. Beating Trump in a primary where 80% identify as MAGA Trumpists and he will attack you with random falsehoods if you stand up to him is one of those games.
    That is to accept he's inevitable.
    In which case they shouldn't waste their time and money.
    They make a lot of money on the journey in US politics. Its not inevitable Trump wins, but not in the power of any individual to stop him, and the pay offs dont reward co-operative behaviour between his main rivals.
    Primary losers can also lose an awful lot of money.
    It doesn't cost them much to flirt with a run, but actually declaring gets expensive quickly.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,956
    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
    Nah if someone beats Trump, it will either be himself or a bystander who watches others take him down first, but get hurt too much to win themselves. Unsurprisingly not many are willing to be first one to criticise him and take the incoming fire.
    That's what the putzes tried last time.
    It just made them look like wimps.
    Sometimes there are games you cannot win, at least not without a lot of luck. Beating Trump in a primary where 80% identify as MAGA Trumpists and he will attack you with random falsehoods if you stand up to him is one of those games.
    That is to accept he's inevitable.
    In which case they shouldn't waste their time and money.
    They make a lot of money on the journey in US politics. Its not inevitable Trump wins, but not in the power of any individual to stop him, and the pay offs dont reward co-operative behaviour between his main rivals.
    Wasn't Trump's own candidacy seen by many as just a money-making scam at first?
    Possibly even by Trump himself?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,326
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
    Nah if someone beats Trump, it will either be himself or a bystander who watches others take him down first, but get hurt too much to win themselves. Unsurprisingly not many are willing to be first one to criticise him and take the incoming fire.
    That's what the putzes tried last time.
    It just made them look like wimps.
    Sometimes there are games you cannot win, at least not without a lot of luck. Beating Trump in a primary where 80% identify as MAGA Trumpists and he will attack you with random falsehoods if you stand up to him is one of those games.
    The thinking is that the larger the field, the more it benefits Trump. So the other candidates need to quickly whittle themselves down to no more than two.

    I still think DeSantis is no more than 50/50 to run.
    50/50 candidates don't have Super PACs raising $30m in four weeks.
    They do if they bottle it at the last moment.
    The money is still good for next time around.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,610
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    EIIR is a tough, almost impossible, act to follow.

    So, we had monarchs for a 1000 years before her. Good and bad
    Who's this "we"?

    All the constituent nations of the UK?

    I think HYUFDs weaker point is that the failure to acknowledge that bad monarchs are bad. We don't deny they happened. But ideally we'd try to avoid a situation in which a nutter was head of state.
    Democracies haven't necessarily been perfect in that respect, of course. But in a democracy you're not stuck with the head of state indefinitely.
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,561
    Asa Hutchinson is the former governor of Arkansas, and was term limited. He has a surprising range of experience in government:
    "William Asa Hutchinson II (/ˈeɪsə/, AY-sə; born December 3, 1950) is an American attorney, businessman, and politician who served as the 46th governor of Arkansas from 2015 to 2023. A member of the Republican Party, he was the U.S. attorney for the Fort Smith-based Western District of Arkansas from 1982 to 1985, U.S. representative for Arkansas's 3rd congressional district from 1997 to 2001, administrator of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration from 2001 to 2003, and the first undersecretary for border and transportation security at the United States Department of Homeland Security from 2003 to 2005."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asa_Hutchinson

    As a graduate of Bob Jones University, he probably can appeal to evangelicals in Iowa.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,282

    Truss *did* surprise on the upside, once she got into the debates.

    Against all the previous evidence of her awkward speaking style, she came across as articulate, pointed, and confident.

    Sunak surprised on the downside with increasingly desperate waffle.

    Sunak repeated the same lines at each hustings, to the point where even he joked about it. Liz Truss at least had the wit to vary her opening (invariably by offering new roads to wherever she happened to be).
    All roads lead to Rome with

    THE

    T

    R

    U

    S

    S
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,326

    The Murdoch Press, eh?


    Nicked Nat
    Murrell whacked
    Give a van a home
    This old girl
    Came back alone

    Needs some work
    Sewing mailbags?
    Horatio Bottomley says hi.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,087

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
    Nah if someone beats Trump, it will either be himself or a bystander who watches others take him down first, but get hurt too much to win themselves. Unsurprisingly not many are willing to be first one to criticise him and take the incoming fire.
    They all agree someone has to take Trump down, but no-one wants to step up to the role. There’s an obscure fable about mice agreeing to tie a bell around the cat…
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,733
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Despite a typical thread header from ardent Republican TSE I don't think these numbers should worry the monarchy. About half the population will still watch or take part in celebrating the coronation guaranteeing it huge viewing figures still and it will also bring in lots of tourism.

    Remember too Charles and Camilla are most popular with their fellow pensioners, so no surprises that generation are the ones most interested in their coronation. William and Kate are popular across the generations though. Longer term constitutional monarchy will also be preferred over a President Johnson or President Blair

    Frankly it doesn't matter what "their fellow pensioners" think as they won't be around to be influenced. What my age and those 20-30s whippersnappers think is much more important.

    There is evidence that Charles understands the position he is in. Cutting back on the real absurdities (hereditary family coronation gowns???) and on the surplus to requirement hangers on is already happening. He will need to go further.

    William and Kate are popular? Vs the true King Harry and Queen Meghan, yes I grant you that. But beyond that? William appears to be a pompous bore, and his missus is pretty but otherwise vacant. They have cute kids. But people's attention spans have shortened and the variety of entertainment is now vast.

    I doubt that current generation of Wales's will be willing to perform for the cameras at the pace and intrusion needed to keep them as popular as you claim.
    People get wiser with age. The monarchy will survive. The Alternstive is unthinkable.
    There are many alternatives, many of which are perfectly plausible.

    No party who wants to form a government will put any such thought into a manifesto. It will not happen short of revolution. We have had a revolution, in 1688, in which the line of succession was altered but not so as to destroy the ancestry. A similar thing happened with Edward VIII. No fresh revolution is required.

    Those who want to abolish the monarchy need to ask: Who bells the cat? first. It wasn't even on Jezza's radar.
    Nothing is forever. A very simple way to abolish the monarchy would be for the United Kingdom to join a larger superstate (becoming a part of that superstate, no longer independent).

    Brexit has stopped that process dead for the moment, but who knows where the UK will be at the end of the century.....
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,326
    edited April 2023

    Asa Hutchinson is the former governor of Arkansas, and was term limited. He has a surprising range of experience in government:
    "William Asa Hutchinson II (/ˈeɪsə/, AY-sə; born December 3, 1950) is an American attorney, businessman, and politician who served as the 46th governor of Arkansas from 2015 to 2023. A member of the Republican Party, he was the U.S. attorney for the Fort Smith-based Western District of Arkansas from 1982 to 1985, U.S. representative for Arkansas's 3rd congressional district from 1997 to 2001, administrator of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration from 2001 to 2003, and the first undersecretary for border and transportation security at the United States Department of Homeland Security from 2003 to 2005."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asa_Hutchinson

    As a graduate of Bob Jones University, he probably can appeal to evangelicals in Iowa.

    *Checks book*
    Yes, should be included in the list of very long odds long shots.

    And he is slightly younger than Biden.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,126
    kjh said:

    There is quite a list Dominion and Smartmatic are suing and presumably they are all probably going the same way with a few bankruptcies on the way, but why isn't Trump on that list. Struggling to understand why not.

    Because he might be president again in 19 months time and they don't need the hassle of his narcissistic vengeance while they can get plenty of settlement cash out the other shitstains like Fox, Crazy Rudy, etc.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,325

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Despite a typical thread header from ardent Republican TSE I don't think these numbers should worry the monarchy. About half the population will still watch or take part in celebrating the coronation guaranteeing it huge viewing figures still and it will also bring in lots of tourism.

    Remember too Charles and Camilla are most popular with their fellow pensioners, so no surprises that generation are the ones most interested in their coronation. William and Kate are popular across the generations though. Longer term constitutional monarchy will also be preferred over a President Johnson or President Blair

    Frankly it doesn't matter what "their fellow pensioners" think as they won't be around to be influenced. What my age and those 20-30s whippersnappers think is much more important.

    There is evidence that Charles understands the position he is in. Cutting back on the real absurdities (hereditary family coronation gowns???) and on the surplus to requirement hangers on is already happening. He will need to go further.

    William and Kate are popular? Vs the true King Harry and Queen Meghan, yes I grant you that. But beyond that? William appears to be a pompous bore, and his missus is pretty but otherwise vacant. They have cute kids. But people's attention spans have shortened and the variety of entertainment is now vast.

    I doubt that current generation of Wales's will be willing to perform for the cameras at the pace and intrusion needed to keep them as popular as you claim.
    People get wiser with age. The monarchy will survive. The Alternstive is unthinkable.
    There are many alternatives, many of which are perfectly plausible.

    No party who wants to form a government will put any such thought into a manifesto. It will not happen short of revolution. We have had a revolution, in 1688, in which the line of succession was altered but not so as to destroy the ancestry. A similar thing happened with Edward VIII. No fresh revolution is required.

    Those who want to abolish the monarchy need to ask: Who bells the cat? first. It wasn't even on Jezza's radar.
    Nothing is forever. A very simple way to abolish the monarchy would be for the United Kingdom to join a larger superstate (becoming a part of that superstate, no longer independent).

    Brexit has stopped that process dead for the moment, but who knows where the UK will be at the end of the century.....
    In which case the UK would cease to be an independent nation anyway.

    However even that is not guaranteed, Sweden, Denmark, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg all have their own constitutional monarchies still while within the EU headed by EU President Von der Leyen
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,745
    edited April 2023
    Leon said:

    THIS guy thinks "This old man" is just a counting rhyme, but it DOES contain an ethnic slur against the Irish


    https://www.wordorigins.org/big-list-entries/paddywhack

    OTHERS say it is all to do with Irish tinkers playing spoons made of bones

    Does it matter? Are nursery rhymes current? The few occasions I've heard mums singing to babies recently, they've been pop songs.

    ETA though there was one posh nanny (or so I assume) on the tube to Richmond singing The Galloping Major to a small boy bouncing on her knee, and that has "as proud as an Indian Rajah".
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,813
    I did raise some questions about the issue of the sacking of Tony Danker from the CBI a few weeks ago, based on some rather vague 'allegations'. He is now back telling his side of the story.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65313822

    "The BBC has not seen his dismissal letter but in his first interview since being fired on 11 April, Mr Danker said his termination letter had cited four reasons for dismissal:

    Organising a secret and private karaoke party for 15 people after a Christmas work event
    Viewing the Instagram accounts of CBI staff
    Sending non-work related messages to staff on work messaging platforms
    Inviting junior staff to breakfasts, lunches or one-on-one meetings
    Mr Danker accepted that some staff may have found his approach at work uncomfortable and apologised for that - but he did not believe his immediate sacking was warranted.

    Instead, he claimed he had been made "the fall guy" for a wider crisis engulfing the CBI."


    What is quite interesting is that, actually, when something like this comes up, PB can be no different to the daily mail comments page.... people just like to jump to simple answers based largely on their own prejudicies.
    Educated people are no different to uneducated people in this respect.

    In the end we don't really know what the truth is about this situation, and it seems unlikely to ever be revealed, because of 'privacy issues'.

    However, it is troubling how people can be so relaxed about reputation destruction.


  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,282

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just at Gare du Nord.

    Leavers are morons.

    Why?
    Well it needs little explanation but in this instance because they have imposed upon the British travelling public extra checks and administrative burden and we are now, I note, limited to bringing back 18 litres of still wine into the country.

    The bad old days.
    The restriction on bringing back for personal use is from Customs and Excise - they fought a long battle in this while we in the EU, and it’s become an almost religious issue for them.
    It is also illegal to take cheese to France I believe

    (yes, I know, do your own jokes)
  • Options
    SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 606

    SandraMc said:

    Rather than tax my mind with weighty matters of constitution, the burning question for me is: What shall I bring to the local street party? Residents of odd-numbered houses (which includes me) are requested to bring savoury items to share, evens to bring sweet. The Coronation Quiche looks too much of a faff so it will have to be shop bought. Mini pork pies, sausage rolls, scotch eggs? Who is the culinary expert on this board?

    Take a load of Gregg's Vegan Sausage Rolls.

    That should trigger a fair few of the Union Jack Y-fronts brigade.
    I adopt the Frankie Boyle approach to vegans. "Is there a vegan option?". "Yes. Eff off."
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,325
    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    EIIR is a tough, almost impossible, act to follow.

    So, we had monarchs for a 1000 years before her. Good and bad
    Who's this "we"?

    All the constituent nations of the UK?

    I think HYUFDs weaker point is that the failure to acknowledge that bad monarchs are bad. We don't deny they happened. But ideally we'd try to avoid a situation in which a nutter was head of state.
    Democracies haven't necessarily been perfect in that respect, of course. But in a democracy you're not stuck with the head of state indefinitely.
    Putin, Mugabe etc. Head of state alone also doesn't have much power as they did when head of government
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,607
    edited April 2023
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Reasons leavers are morons pt.94

    "Oh but we can vote out our own politicians, unlike those of the EU" - ie fundamentally misunderstanding our relationship with the EU.

    It was a club. One with rules. And for 40-odd years we wanted to be a member of that club and follow those rules. Then we didn't and hence left. No biggie (aside from the economic damage, etc). It was about the rules, not sovereignty.

    We were sovereign before, during and after our membership of the EU.

    So say "we didn't like the rules so left" but don't say "we weren't sovereign in the EU".

    Morons.

    You've said this angry red-faced nonsense about a trillion times, doesn't make it any truer than it was the first time

    I do, however, note that there are calendrical clusters when you say this piffle more often, it is generally when you are boarding or departing on the Eurostar

    You could try flying?
    The cotes de Rhone is surprisingly agreeable.

    All true though what I (have a trillion times) said.

    And that's fine. We didn't like the rules and so left. Great. 18 litres of still wine should be plenty. But enough of this sovereignty bolleaux.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,647
    SandraMc said:

    SandraMc said:

    Rather than tax my mind with weighty matters of constitution, the burning question for me is: What shall I bring to the local street party? Residents of odd-numbered houses (which includes me) are requested to bring savoury items to share, evens to bring sweet. The Coronation Quiche looks too much of a faff so it will have to be shop bought. Mini pork pies, sausage rolls, scotch eggs? Who is the culinary expert on this board?

    Take a load of Gregg's Vegan Sausage Rolls.

    That should trigger a fair few of the Union Jack Y-fronts brigade.
    I adopt the Frankie Boyle approach to vegans. "Is there a vegan option?". "Yes. Eff off."
    :innocent:

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/frankie-boyle-front-channel-4s-29725062.amp

    Frankie Boyle to front Channel 4's alternative royal Coronation coverage
    Frankie Boyle takes the monarchy to task in a new Channel 4 show ahead of King Charles' Coronation in May, while the broadcaster will also air a special episode of comedy The Windsors, and examine Prince Andrew's disastrous interview with Newsnight
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    EIIR is a tough, almost impossible, act to follow.

    So, we had monarchs for a 1000 years before her. Good and bad
    Who's this "we"?

    Includes you Scots. Ironically when England became a republic under Cromwell in 1649, Scotland remained loyal to the Stuarts, Scots forming a key part of Prince Charles' army at the Battle of Worcester v Cromwell's forces
    It all went downhill when they overthrew James VII...
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,700
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Reasons leavers are morons pt.94

    "Oh but we can vote out our own politicians, unlike those of the EU" - ie fundamentally misunderstanding our relationship with the EU.

    It was a club. One with rules. And for 40-odd years we wanted to be a member of that club and follow those rules. Then we didn't and hence left. No biggie (aside from the economic damage, etc). It was about the rules, not sovereignty.

    We were sovereign before, during and after our membership of the EU.

    So say "we didn't like the rules so left" but don't say "we weren't sovereign in the EU".

    Morons.

    You've said this angry red-faced nonsense about a trillion times, doesn't make it any truer than it was the first time

    I do, however, note that there are calendrical clusters when you say this piffle more often, it is generally when you are boarding or departing on the Eurostar

    You could try flying?
    But what if he were not made to join a humiliating cattle-like queue with the barbarous heathens from outside the EU? The whole holiday experience would be ruined.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,326
    edited April 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    There is quite a list Dominion and Smartmatic are suing and presumably they are all probably going the same way with a few bankruptcies on the way, but why isn't Trump on that list. Struggling to understand why not.

    Because he might be president again in 19 months time and they don't need the hassle of his narcissistic vengeance while they can get plenty of settlement cash out the other shitstains like Fox, Crazy Rudy, etc.
    Also there is the distinction between reporting fake news for cash (Fox), lawyering (the other shitstains), and political speech.
    They run straight into the First Amendment (particularly with the current horrors on the SC) going after Trump, even without the added risk of his revenge.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,607
    edited April 2023

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Reasons leavers are morons pt.94

    "Oh but we can vote out our own politicians, unlike those of the EU" - ie fundamentally misunderstanding our relationship with the EU.

    It was a club. One with rules. And for 40-odd years we wanted to be a member of that club and follow those rules. Then we didn't and hence left. No biggie (aside from the economic damage, etc). It was about the rules, not sovereignty.

    We were sovereign before, during and after our membership of the EU.

    So say "we didn't like the rules so left" but don't say "we weren't sovereign in the EU".

    Morons.

    You've said this angry red-faced nonsense about a trillion times, doesn't make it any truer than it was the first time

    I do, however, note that there are calendrical clusters when you say this piffle more often, it is generally when you are boarding or departing on the Eurostar

    You could try flying?
    But what if he were not made to join a humiliating cattle-like queue with the barbarous heathens from outside the EU? The whole holiday experience would be ruined.
    Hmm. Not sure you are getting it. We voted for more admin and hassle.

    That is the act of a moron.

    Compounded when the morons spout "sovereignty" bollocks about it all.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,610

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    EIIR is a tough, almost impossible, act to follow.

    So, we had monarchs for a 1000 years before her. Good and bad
    Who's this "we"?

    Includes you Scots. Ironically when England became a republic under Cromwell in 1649, Scotland remained loyal to the Stuarts, Scots forming a key part of Prince Charles' army at the Battle of Worcester v Cromwell's forces
    It all went downhill when they overthrew James VII...
    Sh. You'll wake @JackW
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,401
    edited April 2023

    SandraMc said:

    SandraMc said:

    Rather than tax my mind with weighty matters of constitution, the burning question for me is: What shall I bring to the local street party? Residents of odd-numbered houses (which includes me) are requested to bring savoury items to share, evens to bring sweet. The Coronation Quiche looks too much of a faff so it will have to be shop bought. Mini pork pies, sausage rolls, scotch eggs? Who is the culinary expert on this board?

    Take a load of Gregg's Vegan Sausage Rolls.

    That should trigger a fair few of the Union Jack Y-fronts brigade.
    I adopt the Frankie Boyle approach to vegans. "Is there a vegan option?". "Yes. Eff off."
    :innocent:

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/frankie-boyle-front-channel-4s-29725062.amp

    Frankie Boyle to front Channel 4's alternative royal Coronation coverage
    Frankie Boyle takes the monarchy to task in a new Channel 4 show ahead of King Charles' Coronation in May, while the broadcaster will also air a special episode of comedy The Windsors, and examine Prince Andrew's disastrous interview with Newsnight
    Yawn ....sell off C4
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,326
    I'm not sure this is to be applauded, but it is brilliant.

    the 'grandma exploit' is undoubtedly my favorite chatbot jailbreak to date. source here:
    https://twitter.com/jjvincent/status/1648594881198039040
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,601
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    EIIR is a tough, almost impossible, act to follow.

    So, we had monarchs for a 1000 years before her. Good and bad
    Who's this "we"?

    Includes you Scots. Ironically when England became a republic under Cromwell in 1649, Scotland remained loyal to the Stuarts, Scots forming a key part of Prince Charles' army at the Battle of Worcester v Cromwell's forces
    I know the Scots can be sarcy buggers, but do you have any evidence that they remained loyal to the Stuarts in any way ironically? The history I've seen paints it as quite sincere.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,647

    SandraMc said:

    SandraMc said:

    Rather than tax my mind with weighty matters of constitution, the burning question for me is: What shall I bring to the local street party? Residents of odd-numbered houses (which includes me) are requested to bring savoury items to share, evens to bring sweet. The Coronation Quiche looks too much of a faff so it will have to be shop bought. Mini pork pies, sausage rolls, scotch eggs? Who is the culinary expert on this board?

    Take a load of Gregg's Vegan Sausage Rolls.

    That should trigger a fair few of the Union Jack Y-fronts brigade.
    I adopt the Frankie Boyle approach to vegans. "Is there a vegan option?". "Yes. Eff off."
    :innocent:

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/frankie-boyle-front-channel-4s-29725062.amp

    Frankie Boyle to front Channel 4's alternative royal Coronation coverage
    Frankie Boyle takes the monarchy to task in a new Channel 4 show ahead of King Charles' Coronation in May, while the broadcaster will also air a special episode of comedy The Windsors, and examine Prince Andrew's disastrous interview with Newsnight
    Yawn ....sell off C4
    Yeah, the Coronation will be one big yawn-fest. We all know that Charles became monarch last September.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,700
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Reasons leavers are morons pt.94

    "Oh but we can vote out our own politicians, unlike those of the EU" - ie fundamentally misunderstanding our relationship with the EU.

    It was a club. One with rules. And for 40-odd years we wanted to be a member of that club and follow those rules. Then we didn't and hence left. No biggie (aside from the economic damage, etc). It was about the rules, not sovereignty.

    We were sovereign before, during and after our membership of the EU.

    So say "we didn't like the rules so left" but don't say "we weren't sovereign in the EU".

    Morons.

    You've said this angry red-faced nonsense about a trillion times, doesn't make it any truer than it was the first time

    I do, however, note that there are calendrical clusters when you say this piffle more often, it is generally when you are boarding or departing on the Eurostar

    You could try flying?
    But what if he were not made to join a humiliating cattle-like queue with the barbarous heathens from outside the EU? The whole holiday experience would be ruined.
    Hmm. Not sure you are getting it. We voted for more admin and hassle.

    That is the act of a moron.

    Compounded when the morons spout "sovereignty" bollocks about it all.
    I was humorously implying that you would be highly disappointed if the experience of going to France was smooth and quick, because you wouldn't be able to come on here and give us the righteous indignation bit.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,077

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    EIIR is a tough, almost impossible, act to follow.

    So, we had monarchs for a 1000 years before her. Good and bad
    Who's this "we"?

    Includes you Scots. Ironically when England became a republic under Cromwell in 1649, Scotland remained loyal to the Stuarts, Scots forming a key part of Prince Charles' army at the Battle of Worcester v Cromwell's forces
    It all went downhill when they overthrew James VII...
    That ought to be celebrated more than it is. The closest we have to a 1776 or 1789.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,401

    SandraMc said:

    SandraMc said:

    Rather than tax my mind with weighty matters of constitution, the burning question for me is: What shall I bring to the local street party? Residents of odd-numbered houses (which includes me) are requested to bring savoury items to share, evens to bring sweet. The Coronation Quiche looks too much of a faff so it will have to be shop bought. Mini pork pies, sausage rolls, scotch eggs? Who is the culinary expert on this board?

    Take a load of Gregg's Vegan Sausage Rolls.

    That should trigger a fair few of the Union Jack Y-fronts brigade.
    I adopt the Frankie Boyle approach to vegans. "Is there a vegan option?". "Yes. Eff off."
    :innocent:

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/frankie-boyle-front-channel-4s-29725062.amp

    Frankie Boyle to front Channel 4's alternative royal Coronation coverage
    Frankie Boyle takes the monarchy to task in a new Channel 4 show ahead of King Charles' Coronation in May, while the broadcaster will also air a special episode of comedy The Windsors, and examine Prince Andrew's disastrous interview with Newsnight
    Yawn

    SandraMc said:

    SandraMc said:

    Rather than tax my mind with weighty matters of constitution, the burning question for me is: What shall I bring to the local street party? Residents of odd-numbered houses (which includes me) are requested to bring savoury items to share, evens to bring sweet. The Coronation Quiche looks too much of a faff so it will have to be shop bought. Mini pork pies, sausage rolls, scotch eggs? Who is the culinary expert on this board?

    Take a load of Gregg's Vegan Sausage Rolls.

    That should trigger a fair few of the Union Jack Y-fronts brigade.
    I adopt the Frankie Boyle approach to vegans. "Is there a vegan option?". "Yes. Eff off."
    :innocent:

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/frankie-boyle-front-channel-4s-29725062.amp

    Frankie Boyle to front Channel 4's alternative royal Coronation coverage
    Frankie Boyle takes the monarchy to task in a new Channel 4 show ahead of King Charles' Coronation in May, while the broadcaster will also air a special episode of comedy The Windsors, and examine Prince Andrew's disastrous interview with Newsnight
    Yawn ....sell off C4
    Yeah, the Coronation will be one big yawn-fest. We all know that Charles became monarch last September.
    Did you fail British Constituion at school.?
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,601
    edited April 2023

    Leon said:

    THIS guy thinks "This old man" is just a counting rhyme, but it DOES contain an ethnic slur against the Irish


    https://www.wordorigins.org/big-list-entries/paddywhack

    OTHERS say it is all to do with Irish tinkers playing spoons made of bones

    Does it matter? Are nursery rhymes current? The few occasions I've heard mums singing to babies recently, they've been pop songs.

    ETA though there was one posh nanny (or so I assume) on the tube to Richmond singing The Galloping Major to a small boy bouncing on her knee, and that has "as proud as an Indian Rajah".
    We do nursery rhymes and I know of many others who do, too. But we do tend to omit or change the obviously offensive ones.

    Ye canny shove yer grannie aff a bus is another favourite I sing to my youngest while changing him, but normally with different lyrics to the same tune, e.g. along the lines of:
    "Ye canny kick yer daddie in the face
    No ye canny kick your daddie in the face
    Ye canny kick yer daddie
    Cos he's yer mammie's laddie
    No ye canny kick yer daddie in the face"

    There are variations with "Ye canny put yer hand in yer poo" etc. None of them seem particuarly effective :disappointed:
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,607

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Reasons leavers are morons pt.94

    "Oh but we can vote out our own politicians, unlike those of the EU" - ie fundamentally misunderstanding our relationship with the EU.

    It was a club. One with rules. And for 40-odd years we wanted to be a member of that club and follow those rules. Then we didn't and hence left. No biggie (aside from the economic damage, etc). It was about the rules, not sovereignty.

    We were sovereign before, during and after our membership of the EU.

    So say "we didn't like the rules so left" but don't say "we weren't sovereign in the EU".

    Morons.

    You've said this angry red-faced nonsense about a trillion times, doesn't make it any truer than it was the first time

    I do, however, note that there are calendrical clusters when you say this piffle more often, it is generally when you are boarding or departing on the Eurostar

    You could try flying?
    But what if he were not made to join a humiliating cattle-like queue with the barbarous heathens from outside the EU? The whole holiday experience would be ruined.
    Hmm. Not sure you are getting it. We voted for more admin and hassle.

    That is the act of a moron.

    Compounded when the morons spout "sovereignty" bollocks about it all.
    I was humorously implying that you would be highly disappointed if the experience of going to France was smooth and quick, because you wouldn't be able to come on here and give us the righteous indignation bit.
    Yeah but not humorously enough to overcome the cotes de rhone.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,072
    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    EIIR is a tough, almost impossible, act to follow.

    So, we had monarchs for a 1000 years before her. Good and bad
    Who's this "we"?

    All the constituent nations of the UK?

    I think HYUFDs weaker point is that the failure to acknowledge that bad monarchs are bad. We don't deny they happened. But ideally we'd try to avoid a situation in which a nutter was head of state.
    Democracies haven't necessarily been perfect in that respect, of course. But in a democracy you're not stuck with the head of state indefinitely.
    Bed democratic leaders have a nasty habit of turning themselves into bad undemocratic leaders
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,161
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DeSantis looks to be on the slide.
    Beginning to look as though the GOP might be faced with a choice between an ex President facing multiple criminal prosecutions, and a rank outsider (which might be their best shot).

    DeSantis under pressure to dispel GOP concerns over 2024
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3955111-desantis-pressure-gop-trump-2024/

    I still feel like the person to defeat Trump is going to be someone who tries the traditional "criticize your opponent" strategy.

    It might be good to have a thread on the alternatives. That includes the ones who look a bit no-hopey right now, because nature abhors a vacuum.
    Nah if someone beats Trump, it will either be himself or a bystander who watches others take him down first, but get hurt too much to win themselves. Unsurprisingly not many are willing to be first one to criticise him and take the incoming fire.
    That's what the putzes tried last time.
    It just made them look like wimps.
    Sometimes there are games you cannot win, at least not without a lot of luck. Beating Trump in a primary where 80% identify as MAGA Trumpists and he will attack you with random falsehoods if you stand up to him is one of those games.
    The thinking is that the larger the field, the more it benefits Trump. So the other candidates need to quickly whittle themselves down to no more than two.

    I still think DeSantis is no more than 50/50 to run.
    They don't need to whittle down the field yet. It's fine to get say 5-10% of the way through the primaries as long as you unite after that. That's what the Dems did with Biden. They can definitely at least let the challengers compete with each other until Iowa.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,735

    Leon said:

    THIS guy thinks "This old man" is just a counting rhyme, but it DOES contain an ethnic slur against the Irish


    https://www.wordorigins.org/big-list-entries/paddywhack

    OTHERS say it is all to do with Irish tinkers playing spoons made of bones

    Does it matter? Are nursery rhymes current? The few occasions I've heard mums singing to babies recently, they've been pop songs.

    ETA though there was one posh nanny (or so I assume) on the tube to Richmond singing The Galloping Major to a small boy bouncing on her knee, and that has "as proud as an Indian Rajah".

    When I was doing a bit of butchery, the paddywhack was a ligament you cut out with the chine bone. Wikipedia appears to suggest I am not totally misremembering: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuchal_ligament

    Was often given to dogs as a chew. I had assumed the origin of the rhyme came from there. Not the more obvious ethnic slur

    Either way I will go back to lurking.

    Don't do that. This is the sort of useless fact that we all love. Not only that but once again Leon has been shown to be wrong about something (as usual)
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,647

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    EIIR is a tough, almost impossible, act to follow.

    So, we had monarchs for a 1000 years before her. Good and bad
    Who's this "we"?

    Includes you Scots. Ironically when England became a republic under Cromwell in 1649, Scotland remained loyal to the Stuarts, Scots forming a key part of Prince Charles' army at the Battle of Worcester v Cromwell's forces
    It all went downhill when they overthrew James VII...
    That ought to be celebrated more than it is. The closest we have to a 1776 or 1789.
    1649?
This discussion has been closed.