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Kate Forbes must be glad to have lost the SNP leadership contest – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,047
edited April 2023 in General
Kate Forbes must be glad to have lost the SNP leadership contest – politicalbetting.com

The situation has developed not necessarily to the SNP's advantage. https://t.co/PPqMYuuhtS

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517
    First like the Allies.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,420
    Good to see that @TSE is using The Hirohito Understatement now. As is mandatory on such occasions.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,586
    Stark difference between using Mean or Median Poll Analysis

    11 Polls with fieldwork entirely in April

    LAB Ave. 44.45 (45,44,45,41,46,44,44,48,45,42,44)

    CON Ave 28.73 ( 28,27,30,30,26,30,30,25,30,28,32)

    LAB Lead 15.72

    Polls with fieldwork in previous 2 weeks (late March)

    LAB Ave. 46.63 (48,45,45,44,46,46,50,49)

    CON Ave. 26.25 (27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26)

    LAB Lead 18.38

    Reduction in LAB Lead 2.66

    MEDIAN April LAB 44 CON 30 LAB Median Lead 14
    MEDIAN Late March LAB 46 CON 26.5 LAB Median Lead 19.5
    MEDIAN Reduction in Lab Lead 5.5
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,586
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First like the Allies.

    Allies or All lies like SKS
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,601
    4th like SNP in next election?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,571
    The big question is whether the party can survive in its current state should several prosecutions occur.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,571
    The enemy within .....

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/105dc988-dd3c-11ed-a0a8-657f9e54fc6a?shareToken=867b0057b5bd2f171e6e48f1e9dea885
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,845
    Support for independence among a large minority will still be there, and could become a majority again in some form if the Tories win the next election, so they'll always be a constituency for it, I think.

    What happened to Salmond's Alba party ?
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    edited April 2023
    squareroot2 said:

    The big question is whether the party can survive in its current state should several prosecutions occur.

    The other question is if the audit is NOT completed shortly what happens to the SNP's Short money
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,358
    Humza Yousaf looks 5 years older than he did last week.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,135
    eek said:

    squareroot2 said:

    The big question is whether the party can survive in its current state should several prosecutions occur.

    The other question is if the audit is NOT completed shortly what happens to the SNP's Short money
    I expect it will take a long time to sort that one out.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,022
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨

    Labour lead is fourteen in latest results from Deltapoll.

    Con 29% (+2)
    Lab 43% (-5)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Other 17% (-)

    Fieldwork: 13th - 17th April 2023

    Sample: 1,567 GB adults

    (Changes from 31st March - 3rd April 2023)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,727
    Anyone think Yousaf's vision extends beyond three days, let alone three years?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,139
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Support for independence among a large minority will still be there, and could become a majority again in some form if the Tories win the next election, so they'll always be a constituency for it, I think.

    What happened to Salmond's Alba party ?

    I'm unconvinced that SNP support will shrink much or that Labour alone will benefit if it does. We really need some polling done!
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    londonpubman said:

    4th like SNP in next election?

    :smile:

    Kate Forbes probably is glad to have lost the SNP leadership contest but when Humza Yousaf bites the dust even harder than Liz Truss did - which is surely what's going to happen - will she walk in the footsteps of BJohnson or will she be applauded into office à la RSunak?

    The fact that her image is as a Ms Clean who probably doesn't even wash her clothes on a Sunday, let alone hang them on the line, and who seems to think an erection is something described on a planning application, added to the fact that she hasn't held the top job before, suggests she's in a strong position to take over as party leader and FM, perhaps soon.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    And the award for the shortest thread of all time goes to this one

    This thread has been Trumped

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,420
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Support for independence among a large minority will still be there, and could become a majority again in some form if the Tories win the next election, so they'll always be a constituency for it, I think.

    What happened to Salmond's Alba party ?

    Not much happened with Alba - with much of that to do with the savage unpopularity of Alex Salmond

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/scottish-politics/3111256/alex-salmond-popularity/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    (FPT)
    Malmesbury said:

    ManOfGwent said:

    malcolmg said:

    ManOfGwent said:

    malcolmg said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, Wales isn't another country, and it is at least bilingual.

    Not sure it's clever for the Welsh to try and reduce employment possibilities, though. The headteacher of my primary school retired to Wales, got a bit bored and thought of re-entering teaching but Welsh was so difficult to learn he had to abandon the idea.

    It is Wales though and NOT England, no compulsion to have names that suit England.
    The vast majority of us in Wales are Welsh and only speak English, nothing to do with England. If the Welsh speakers want to speak Welsh good luck to them, we just want the same respect.
    Move to England then.
    Unfortunately for Wales, that's what a lot of young people have to do to get a job.
    Welcome to PB. Here is the Questionnaire -

    1) Pineapple on Pizza? Ok or War Crime?
    2) AV - is it a good idea?
    3) BA pilots are all dead from COVID vaccines - true/false?
    4) Python - programming language of the future, or the work of the devil?
    5) What do you think of Radiohead?
    6) Die Hard - Christmas movie or not?
    7) Ukraine - whose fault is it?
    The answer to all of the above is yes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,727
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Support for independence among a large minority will still be there, and could become a majority again in some form if the Tories win the next election, so they'll always be a constituency for it, I think.

    What happened to Salmond's Alba party ?

    But there must now be a significant proportion of the Yes vote in 2014 thinking that if independence had happened in 2014, the current clown troupe would have trashed Scotland.

    Independence still maybe - but with some serious intellectual heft first. Those able to make a case for how Scotland responds to issues like currency, pensions, head of state - they seem to be in awfully short supply.

    This might be an interesting time for Sunak to set up a Royal Commission into Scottish independence, to examine in forensic detail exactly how Scotland might look post independence - and the difficult choices the Scots (and rUK) might have to make.

    The SNP have got away with forcing the case in an in intellectual vacuum.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    A 65-year-old man has been charged with second-degree murder after police say he shot at a car that had mistakenly turned into his driveway Saturday night.

    20-year-old Kaylin A. Gillis, from Saratoga County, was killed.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/timesunion/status/1648061732139442176
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,503
    MarqueeMark said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Support for independence among a large minority will still be there, and could become a majority again in some form if the Tories win the next election, so they'll always be a constituency for it, I think.

    What happened to Salmond's Alba party ?

    But there must now be a significant proportion of the Yes vote in 2014 thinking that if independence had happened in 2014, the current clown troupe would have trashed Scotland.

    Independence still maybe - but with some serious intellectual heft first. Those able to make a case for how Scotland responds to issues like currency, pensions, head of state - they seem to be in awfully short supply.

    This might be an interesting time for Sunak to set up a Royal Commission into Scottish independence, to examine in forensic detail exactly how Scotland might look post independence - and the difficult choices the Scots (and rUK) might have to make.

    The SNP have got away with forcing the case in an in intellectual vacuum.
    Harsh but fair assesment of the case for the Union over the years, of which PB is but an obscure echo.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440
    Thread about Trump 2024 has just disappeared.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440
    eek said:

    And the award for the shortest thread of all time goes to this one

    This thread has been Trumped

    Not for long.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,544
    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/apr/18/sunaks-maths-to-18-plan-misguided-says-man-asked-to-promote-it

    Oops!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,003
    If this sinks the entire establishment SNP ship could HMS Yousaf be sunk below the waterline quicker than HMS Forbes? If so the SNP would have to send for lifeboats with Forbes quicker than the Tories did with Sunak
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,358
    "James Kelly
    @JamesKelly

    What is going on is heartbreaking. If Forbes had won, or even if the process had been fair, it would still be happening, but there would be more of a cordon sanitaire between it and the current leadership. As it is, Humza as the handpicked continuity leader has ownership of it."

    https://twitter.com/JamesKelly/status/1648245830149611522
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,699
    Pulpstar said:

    Thread about Trump 2024 has just disappeared.

    Still visible via Vanilla but showing as "closed".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    And the award for the shortest thread of all time goes to this one

    This thread has been Trumped

    Not for long.
    Trump rightly cancelled.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,687
    HYUFD said:

    If this sinks the entire establishment SNP ship could HMS Yousaf be sunk below the waterline quicker than HMS Forbes? If so the SNP would have to send for lifeboats with Forbes quicker than the Tories did with Sunak

    "Sunk below the waterline"?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,139
    This Tory revival is really messing this site up..: :wink:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,727
    Theuniondivvie said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Support for independence among a large minority will still be there, and could become a majority again in some form if the Tories win the next election, so they'll always be a constituency for it, I think.

    What happened to Salmond's Alba party ?

    But there must now be a significant proportion of the Yes vote in 2014 thinking that if independence had happened in 2014, the current clown troupe would have trashed Scotland.

    Independence still maybe - but with some serious intellectual heft first. Those able to make a case for how Scotland responds to issues like currency, pensions, head of state - they seem to be in awfully short supply.

    This might be an interesting time for Sunak to set up a Royal Commission into Scottish independence, to examine in forensic detail exactly how Scotland might look post independence - and the difficult choices the Scots (and rUK) might have to make.

    The SNP have got away with forcing the case in an in intellectual vacuum.
    Harsh but fair assesment of the case for the Union over the years, of which PB is but an obscure echo.
    You haven't the good grace to acknowledge that for a year before the 2014 vote, pb was banging away about the issues that the SNP refused to talk about. The issues that lost it the referendum.

    The lack of intellectual honesty seems to be about par for the SNP.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    And the award for the shortest thread of all time goes to this one

    This thread has been Trumped

    Not for long.
    Trump rightly cancelled.
    Driver said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thread about Trump 2024 has just disappeared.

    Still visible via Vanilla but showing as "closed".
    It swallowed my comment about Trump being prosecuted in three or four different jurisdictions during any campaign.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    And the award for the shortest thread of all time goes to this one

    This thread has been Trumped

    Not for long.
    The SNP rises again.
    It's a portent.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,533
    Is it still Tuesday? Have I had my lunch? Where am I?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,727
    Andy_JS said:

    Humza Yousaf looks 5 years older than he did last week.

    He now looks 13.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,727
    felix said:

    This Tory revival is really messing this site up..: :wink:

    I have been saying that all the Tories needed was for them to improve one point a month, with Labour to fall off one point a month through this year - and we would have a contest.

    Seems to be happening. On steroids...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    MarqueeMark said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Support for independence among a large minority will still be there, and could become a majority again in some form if the Tories win the next election, so they'll always be a constituency for it, I think.

    What happened to Salmond's Alba party ?

    But there must now be a significant proportion of the Yes vote in 2014 thinking that if independence had happened in 2014, the current clown troupe would have trashed Scotland.

    Independence still maybe - but with some serious intellectual heft first. Those able to make a case for how Scotland responds to issues like currency, pensions, head of state - they seem to be in awfully short supply.

    This might be an interesting time for Sunak to set up a Royal Commission into Scottish independence, to examine in forensic detail exactly how Scotland might look post independence - and the difficult choices the Scots (and rUK) might have to make.

    The SNP have got away with forcing the case in an in intellectual vacuum.
    Harsh but fair assesment of the case for the Union over the years, of which PB is but an obscure echo.
    You haven't the good grace to acknowledge that for a year before the 2014 vote, pb was banging away about the issues that the SNP refused to talk about. The issues that lost it the referendum.

    The lack of intellectual honesty seems to be about par for the SNP.
    Of course we've never banged away about the issues over Scottish independence ?


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,727
    The poll I'm really looking forward to is the first with both Labour and the Tories in the 30's.....
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,650
    Off topic this thread on topic the Trump thread - the Dominion / Fox News case begins today. Dominion appear to have a mountain of evidence demonstrating that Fux "news" anchors lied and lied and lied.

    And yet the faithful will continue to believe the lies are truth and the truth are lies. The exact place the Tories want people here to get to. Lets not let them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,258
    I'd like to request that PB Brexiters refrain from saying that Scottish Independence (or indeed anything) needs a 'rigorous intellectual case'.

    It's making me barf.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,687
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/apr/18/sunaks-maths-to-18-plan-misguided-says-man-asked-to-promote-it

    Oops!

    The Times comment by Stephen Follows can be read on his website here:
    https://stephenfollows.com/how-i-caught-the-uk-government-not-doing-their-homework/

    One thing it mentions is that he gave up maths at 16, but later "self-educated".

    Let's hope this helps to bury the ludicrous political gimmick.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,768
    eek said:

    squareroot2 said:

    The big question is whether the party can survive in its current state should several prosecutions occur.

    The other question is if the audit is NOT completed shortly what happens to the SNP's Short money
    My question is if all the SNP MP's decide to change party and affiliate to NewCo SNPTwo - are they entitled to the Short Money? The Parliamentary briefing lists it as being based on ''seats won" and "votes gained" by the party at the most recent General Election, which suggests that they couldn't take the Short Money with them, but...? (I guess knowing if ChangeUK ever got any Short Money would potentially answer the question?)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,420
    mwadams said:

    Is it still Tuesday? Have I had my lunch? Where am I?

    It's Thursday. It's nearly the Cocktail Hour

    You are on Mars. Breathe deeply (the air is on special this week).
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,018
    Lennon said:

    eek said:

    squareroot2 said:

    The big question is whether the party can survive in its current state should several prosecutions occur.

    The other question is if the audit is NOT completed shortly what happens to the SNP's Short money
    My question is if all the SNP MP's decide to change party and affiliate to NewCo SNPTwo - are they entitled to the Short Money? The Parliamentary briefing lists it as being based on ''seats won" and "votes gained" by the party at the most recent General Election, which suggests that they couldn't take the Short Money with them, but...? (I guess knowing if ChangeUK ever got any Short Money would potentially answer the question?)
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/rules-funding-political-parties

    Parties that cross the two-member threshold as a result of a by-election or a defection from another party mid-way through a parliamentary session are not eligible for Short Money. This means that if MPs break away to form a new political party between elections, as happened during the 2017–19 parliament, that party is not eligible for public funding.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    If true*, this speaks of a rather more fluid situation than is being reported.

    Ukrainian forces reportedly captured a Russian TOS-1A Solntsepyok multiple thermobaric rocket launcher in the area of Bakhmut
    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1648295812840017921

    * A not insignificant qualification.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,677
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    If this sinks the entire establishment SNP ship could HMS Yousaf be sunk below the waterline quicker than HMS Forbes? If so the SNP would have to send for lifeboats with Forbes quicker than the Tories did with Sunak

    "Sunk below the waterline"?
    Being below the waterline is something of a prerequisite for being 'sunk'.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,687
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    If this sinks the entire establishment SNP ship could HMS Yousaf be sunk below the waterline quicker than HMS Forbes? If so the SNP would have to send for lifeboats with Forbes quicker than the Tories did with Sunak

    "Sunk below the waterline"?
    Being below the waterline is something of a prerequisite for being 'sunk'.
    I presume it was a typo for "Sunak below the waterline".
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,699
    Lennon said:

    eek said:

    squareroot2 said:

    The big question is whether the party can survive in its current state should several prosecutions occur.

    The other question is if the audit is NOT completed shortly what happens to the SNP's Short money
    My question is if all the SNP MP's decide to change party and affiliate to NewCo SNPTwo - are they entitled to the Short Money? The Parliamentary briefing lists it as being based on ''seats won" and "votes gained" by the party at the most recent General Election, which suggests that they couldn't take the Short Money with them, but...? (I guess knowing if ChangeUK ever got any Short Money would potentially answer the question?)
    If the SNP dissolves and all the ex-SNP MSPs affiliate to a new party I'd expect that new party to be seen as the political continuation of the SNP (especially if it uses the same or a similar name) even though it would be a distinct legal entity and would get the short money.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,699
    tlg86 said:

    Lennon said:

    eek said:

    squareroot2 said:

    The big question is whether the party can survive in its current state should several prosecutions occur.

    The other question is if the audit is NOT completed shortly what happens to the SNP's Short money
    My question is if all the SNP MP's decide to change party and affiliate to NewCo SNPTwo - are they entitled to the Short Money? The Parliamentary briefing lists it as being based on ''seats won" and "votes gained" by the party at the most recent General Election, which suggests that they couldn't take the Short Money with them, but...? (I guess knowing if ChangeUK ever got any Short Money would potentially answer the question?)
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/rules-funding-political-parties

    Parties that cross the two-member threshold as a result of a by-election or a defection from another party mid-way through a parliamentary session are not eligible for Short Money. This means that if MPs break away to form a new political party between elections, as happened during the 2017–19 parliament, that party is not eligible for public funding.
    That's not quite the same thing as the former party ceasing to exist as a legal entity, though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,420
    Chris said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/apr/18/sunaks-maths-to-18-plan-misguided-says-man-asked-to-promote-it

    Oops!

    The Times comment by Stephen Follows can be read on his website here:
    https://stephenfollows.com/how-i-caught-the-uk-government-not-doing-their-homework/

    One thing it mentions is that he gave up maths at 16, but later "self-educated".

    Let's hope this helps to bury the ludicrous political gimmick.
    The following is worth reading

    https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Is-the-UK-an-Outlier_Nuffield-Foundation_v_FINAL.pdf

    image
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,574
    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lennon said:

    eek said:

    squareroot2 said:

    The big question is whether the party can survive in its current state should several prosecutions occur.

    The other question is if the audit is NOT completed shortly what happens to the SNP's Short money
    My question is if all the SNP MP's decide to change party and affiliate to NewCo SNPTwo - are they entitled to the Short Money? The Parliamentary briefing lists it as being based on ''seats won" and "votes gained" by the party at the most recent General Election, which suggests that they couldn't take the Short Money with them, but...? (I guess knowing if ChangeUK ever got any Short Money would potentially answer the question?)
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/rules-funding-political-parties

    Parties that cross the two-member threshold as a result of a by-election or a defection from another party mid-way through a parliamentary session are not eligible for Short Money. This means that if MPs break away to form a new political party between elections, as happened during the 2017–19 parliament, that party is not eligible for public funding.
    That's not quite the same thing as the former party ceasing to exist as a legal entity, though.
    No, but the status of the former party doesn't seem to matter.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,358
    @nickeardleybbc
    Ash Regan tells World at One that she has sympathy with calls for a rerun of SNP leadership campaign
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    Malmesbury said:

    Chris said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/apr/18/sunaks-maths-to-18-plan-misguided-says-man-asked-to-promote-it

    Oops!

    The Times comment by Stephen Follows can be read on his website here:
    https://stephenfollows.com/how-i-caught-the-uk-government-not-doing-their-homework/

    One thing it mentions is that he gave up maths at 16, but later "self-educated".

    Let's hope this helps to bury the ludicrous political gimmick.
    The following is worth reading

    https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Is-the-UK-an-Outlier_Nuffield-Foundation_v_FINAL.pdf

    image
    That's wrong - in England you must continue to do GCSE maths and English until you pass it or leave School at 18.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/education/students-fail-maths-gcse-exam-resits-cycle-b1060200.html

    So it's voluntary once I particular level is reached.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,677
    Chris said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    If this sinks the entire establishment SNP ship could HMS Yousaf be sunk below the waterline quicker than HMS Forbes? If so the SNP would have to send for lifeboats with Forbes quicker than the Tories did with Sunak

    "Sunk below the waterline"?
    Being below the waterline is something of a prerequisite for being 'sunk'.
    I presume it was a typo for "Sunak below the waterline".
    Deceptively deep puddle?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,258
    Scott_xP said:

    @nickeardleybbc
    Ash Regan tells World at One that she has sympathy with calls for a rerun of SNP leadership campaign

    That wouldn't help the finances.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,358
    @HTScotPol
    Yousaf: I don't believe SNP is criminal operation

    https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1648301588136488960
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,462
    Nigelb said:

    If true*, this speaks of a rather more fluid situation than is being reported.

    Ukrainian forces reportedly captured a Russian TOS-1A Solntsepyok multiple thermobaric rocket launcher in the area of Bakhmut
    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1648295812840017921

    * A not insignificant qualification.

    I saw that earlier. It'd be an interesting capture - surely like most artillery, these things live a few miles behind the front lines?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,533
    edited April 2023
    RobD said:

    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lennon said:

    eek said:

    squareroot2 said:

    The big question is whether the party can survive in its current state should several prosecutions occur.

    The other question is if the audit is NOT completed shortly what happens to the SNP's Short money
    My question is if all the SNP MP's decide to change party and affiliate to NewCo SNPTwo - are they entitled to the Short Money? The Parliamentary briefing lists it as being based on ''seats won" and "votes gained" by the party at the most recent General Election, which suggests that they couldn't take the Short Money with them, but...? (I guess knowing if ChangeUK ever got any Short Money would potentially answer the question?)
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/rules-funding-political-parties

    Parties that cross the two-member threshold as a result of a by-election or a defection from another party mid-way through a parliamentary session are not eligible for Short Money. This means that if MPs break away to form a new political party between elections, as happened during the 2017–19 parliament, that party is not eligible for public funding.
    That's not quite the same thing as the former party ceasing to exist as a legal entity, though.
    No, but the status of the former party doesn't seem to matter.
    Let's cast around for a suitable Scottish analogy where there was reasoned discussion about the ramifications of such a "successor" legal entity and everyone came to a harmonious conclusion. ++ googles ++ What's this about a "Rangers" football club - that sounds like an uncomplicated scenario we can use as an exemplar.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,358
    mwadams said:

    What's this about a "Rangers" football club - that sounds like an uncomplicated scenario we can use as an exemplar.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKwzbu5w6X0
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,910
    kinabalu said:

    I'd like to request that PB Brexiters refrain from saying that Scottish Independence (or indeed anything) needs a 'rigorous intellectual case'.

    It's making me barf.

    Thing is this - if you've watched Brexit, seen how its gone and the impacts its having, I find it hard to believe anyone can look at Scottish Independence and think, yes, this will work a lot better than Brexit did.

    You can make lots of cases for why Scotland should be independent, but do so only with the sure and certain example of Brexit to guide likely outcomes.

    I also think anyone who advocated Brexit ought to understand the motivation of those who seek Scottish Independence. Its why I found the SNP's complaints about Brexit so frustrating.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    edited April 2023
    Nigelb said:

    If true*, this speaks of a rather more fluid situation than is being reported.

    Ukrainian forces reportedly captured a Russian TOS-1A Solntsepyok multiple thermobaric rocket launcher in the area of Bakhmut
    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1648295812840017921

    * A not insignificant qualification.

    Whoops! They’re way too close to the front line, for such expensive and rare systems.

    Now, who among friendly nations might be able to supply the rockets for it?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,358
    turbotubbs said:

    Thing is this - if you've watched Brexit, seen how its gone and the impacts its having, I find it hard to believe anyone can look at Scottish Independence and think, yes, this will work a lot better than Brexit did.

    It will work a lot better cos it will be run by the SNP, not the Tories.

    Oh, wait...
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,601
    MarqueeMark said:

    The poll I'm really looking forward to is the first with both Labour and the Tories in the 30's.....

    Next week maybe? 👍
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    Andy_JS said:

    Humza Yousaf looks 5 years older than he did last week.

    He probably feels 10 years older than he did last week!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,358
    @STVKathryn
    “I’m always surprised when one of my colleagues is arrested.”

    https://twitter.com/STVKathryn/status/1648305777151467522

    Humza really is the spokesman for the crisis in the SNP
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,759
    The SNP more resembles the Gambino Family than a typical political party.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,380
    Scott_xP said:

    @nickeardleybbc
    Ash Regan tells World at One that she has sympathy with calls for a rerun of SNP leadership campaign

    The one that elected Yousaf? Or the one that elected Sturgeon? :wink:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    edited April 2023
    JosiasJessop said:

    Nigelb said:

    If true*, this speaks of a rather more fluid situation than is being reported.

    Ukrainian forces reportedly captured a Russian TOS-1A Solntsepyok multiple thermobaric rocket launcher in the area of Bakhmut
    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1648295812840017921

    * A not insignificant qualification.

    I saw that earlier. It'd be an interesting capture - surely like most artillery, these things live a few miles behind the front lines?
    Yes, but these are relatively short range (6-10km), and unguided, so usually used closer than that.
    Even so, it's slightly surprising that Ukrainian forces would be able to capture, rather than destroy one, around the heavily contested, and pretty static Bakhmut fighting.

    Also high value - Russia only had about forty of them.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,969
    Another "columnist" who himself works from home (and spends most of his time living in America) lectures Brits on... working from home 🤷‍♂️

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11982999/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Shirking-home-turn-cities-basket-cases-like-San-Francisco.html
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,594
    Nigelb said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Nigelb said:

    If true*, this speaks of a rather more fluid situation than is being reported.

    Ukrainian forces reportedly captured a Russian TOS-1A Solntsepyok multiple thermobaric rocket launcher in the area of Bakhmut
    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1648295812840017921

    * A not insignificant qualification.

    I saw that earlier. It'd be an interesting capture - surely like most artillery, these things live a few miles behind the front lines?
    Yes, but these are relatively short range (6-10km), and unguided, so usually closer than that.
    Even so, it's slightly surprising that Ukrainian forces would be able to capture, rather than destroy one, around the heavily contested, and pretty static Bakhmut fighting.
    I think they've captured a few before. I can't imagine they've got much ammunition for them so are they using them now for the most effect?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,358
    edited April 2023
    edit
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,258
    turbotubbs said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'd like to request that PB Brexiters refrain from saying that Scottish Independence (or indeed anything) needs a 'rigorous intellectual case'.

    It's making me barf.

    Thing is this - if you've watched Brexit, seen how its gone and the impacts its having, I find it hard to believe anyone can look at Scottish Independence and think, yes, this will work a lot better than Brexit did.

    You can make lots of cases for why Scotland should be independent, but do so only with the sure and certain example of Brexit to guide likely outcomes.

    I also think anyone who advocated Brexit ought to understand the motivation of those who seek Scottish Independence. Its why I found the SNP's complaints about Brexit so frustrating.
    They are both about National Sovereignty but the Sindy case (on that score) is stronger because it seeks to create it where it doesn't at present exist - as opposed to Brexit which took an already sovereign nation out of the EU where some of that sovereignty had erstwhile been voluntarily pooled.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    MightyAlex said:

    Nigelb said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Nigelb said:

    If true*, this speaks of a rather more fluid situation than is being reported.

    Ukrainian forces reportedly captured a Russian TOS-1A Solntsepyok multiple thermobaric rocket launcher in the area of Bakhmut
    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1648295812840017921

    * A not insignificant qualification.

    I saw that earlier. It'd be an interesting capture - surely like most artillery, these things live a few miles behind the front lines?
    Yes, but these are relatively short range (6-10km), and unguided, so usually closer than that.
    Even so, it's slightly surprising that Ukrainian forces would be able to capture, rather than destroy one, around the heavily contested, and pretty static Bakhmut fighting.
    I think they've captured a few before. I can't imagine they've got much ammunition for them so are they using them now for the most effect?
    Denying the enemy the opportunity to use them, is in itself a significant effect. If it’s captured, there’s no chance at all of the Russians being able to rebuild it.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,849
    Scott_xP said:

    @HTScotPol
    Yousaf: I don't believe SNP is criminal operation

    https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1648301588136488960

    That’s not a good denial to have to make…
  • FossFoss Posts: 894
    edited April 2023
    StillWaters said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @HTScotPol
    Yousaf: I don't believe SNP is criminal operation

    https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1648301588136488960

    That’s not a good denial to have to make…
    It'll make a good headline though.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    edited April 2023
    GIN1138 said:

    Another "columnist" who himself works from home (and spends most of his time living in America) lectures Brits on... working from home 🤷‍♂️

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11982999/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Shirking-home-turn-cities-basket-cases-like-San-Francisco.html

    Cummings said that WFH was the one subject on which No.10 used to get weekly phone calls from newspaper publishers. Not editors, publishers, many of whom are large political donors. Rail commuters buy lots and lots of printed newspapers.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,451
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+1)
    CON: 27% (=)
    LDM: 10% (+1)
    REF: 6% (=)
    GRN: 5% (-2)

    via @YouGov, 12-13 Apr

    (Changes with 6 Apr)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,451
    Humza Yousaf is very, very Ed Miliband 2014
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,358
    SouthamObserver said:

    Humza Yousaf is very, very Ed Miliband 2014

    @KevinASchofield
    Replying to @alexmassie
    Have the police given him the shovel they found at the Murrells'?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    kinabalu said:

    turbotubbs said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'd like to request that PB Brexiters refrain from saying that Scottish Independence (or indeed anything) needs a 'rigorous intellectual case'.

    It's making me barf.

    Thing is this - if you've watched Brexit, seen how its gone and the impacts its having, I find it hard to believe anyone can look at Scottish Independence and think, yes, this will work a lot better than Brexit did.

    You can make lots of cases for why Scotland should be independent, but do so only with the sure and certain example of Brexit to guide likely outcomes.

    I also think anyone who advocated Brexit ought to understand the motivation of those who seek Scottish Independence. Its why I found the SNP's complaints about Brexit so frustrating.
    They are both about National Sovereignty but the Sindy case (on that score) is stronger because it seeks to create it where it doesn't at present exist - as opposed to Brexit which took an already sovereign nation out of the EU where some of that sovereignty had erstwhile been voluntarily pooled.
    Voluntarily by the politicians, very much not voluntarily by the people. Maastricht and Lisbon should have been put to the electorate by way of a referendum, as was the case in many other countries.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lennon said:

    eek said:

    squareroot2 said:

    The big question is whether the party can survive in its current state should several prosecutions occur.

    The other question is if the audit is NOT completed shortly what happens to the SNP's Short money
    My question is if all the SNP MP's decide to change party and affiliate to NewCo SNPTwo - are they entitled to the Short Money? The Parliamentary briefing lists it as being based on ''seats won" and "votes gained" by the party at the most recent General Election, which suggests that they couldn't take the Short Money with them, but...? (I guess knowing if ChangeUK ever got any Short Money would potentially answer the question?)
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/rules-funding-political-parties

    Parties that cross the two-member threshold as a result of a by-election or a defection from another party mid-way through a parliamentary session are not eligible for Short Money. This means that if MPs break away to form a new political party between elections, as happened during the 2017–19 parliament, that party is not eligible for public funding.
    That's not quite the same thing as the former party ceasing to exist as a legal entity, though.
    No, but the status of the former party doesn't seem to matter.
    I suspect that's because a party with that much representation getting dissolved hasn't happened before. The IFG link specifically talks about defection and breaking away, which isn't the situation being hypothesised.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Probably a coincidence…..Turning to party leaders, net approval for the Prime Minister has increased by eleven points over the last 2 weeks.

    Net approval for the Leader of the Opposition has decreased by two points over the same period.




    https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1648244325099216898?s=20

    Our historical leadership approval tracker shows that the gap between net approval for @RishiSunak and @Keir_Starmer has narrowed from fifteen points, 2 weeks ago, to two points this week.


    https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1648244327473192965?s=20
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,358
    @AndrewSparrow
    Humza Yousaf rules out suspending SNP treasurer arrested by police, and says he does not think party now acting criminally -
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,699
    mwadams said:

    RobD said:

    Driver said:

    tlg86 said:

    Lennon said:

    eek said:

    squareroot2 said:

    The big question is whether the party can survive in its current state should several prosecutions occur.

    The other question is if the audit is NOT completed shortly what happens to the SNP's Short money
    My question is if all the SNP MP's decide to change party and affiliate to NewCo SNPTwo - are they entitled to the Short Money? The Parliamentary briefing lists it as being based on ''seats won" and "votes gained" by the party at the most recent General Election, which suggests that they couldn't take the Short Money with them, but...? (I guess knowing if ChangeUK ever got any Short Money would potentially answer the question?)
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/rules-funding-political-parties

    Parties that cross the two-member threshold as a result of a by-election or a defection from another party mid-way through a parliamentary session are not eligible for Short Money. This means that if MPs break away to form a new political party between elections, as happened during the 2017–19 parliament, that party is not eligible for public funding.
    That's not quite the same thing as the former party ceasing to exist as a legal entity, though.
    No, but the status of the former party doesn't seem to matter.
    Let's cast around for a suitable Scottish analogy where there was reasoned discussion about the ramifications of such a "successor" legal entity and everyone came to a harmonious conclusion. ++ googles ++ What's this about a "Rangers" football club - that sounds like an uncomplicated scenario we can use as an exemplar.
    Funnily enough that situation was in mind in my earlier comments. Most people recognise that the current legal entity is a footballing continuation of the previous one.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,451
    Scotland is looking more and more like Catalonia every day. If the pattern continues, look out for four things:
    1. An SNP split - formal or informal - between constitutionalists and secessionists
    2. A significant Labour revival in Scotland
    3. Informal SNP support for a minority Labour government in Westminster
    4. Weakened, but still strong, support for independence
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,571
    londonpubman said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    The poll I'm really looking forward to is the first with both Labour and the Tories in the 30's.....

    Next week maybe? 👍
    Labour's gutter politics will be bad for them.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,516
    turbotubbs said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'd like to request that PB Brexiters refrain from saying that Scottish Independence (or indeed anything) needs a 'rigorous intellectual case'.

    It's making me barf.

    Thing is this - if you've watched Brexit, seen how its gone and the impacts its having, I find it hard to believe anyone can look at Scottish Independence and think, yes, this will work a lot better than Brexit did.

    You can make lots of cases for why Scotland should be independent, but do so only with the sure and certain example of Brexit to guide likely outcomes.

    I also think anyone who advocated Brexit ought to understand the motivation of those who seek Scottish Independence. Its why I found the SNP's complaints about Brexit so frustrating.
    Scottish Independence was a lot more achievable before we Brexited. Now a lot tougher to achieve sensibly. And with the comparison with Northern Ireland it is going to be fun watching Remainer who are Pro Indy and Leavers who are Anti Indy flip their arguments on their head when they argue their cause because they will both be arguing the exact opposite of what they argued before.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    And the award for the shortest thread of all time goes to this one

    This thread has been Trumped

    Not for long.
    Trump rightly cancelled.
    Driver said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thread about Trump 2024 has just disappeared.

    Still visible via Vanilla but showing as "closed".
    It swallowed my comment about Trump being prosecuted in three or four different jurisdictions during any campaign.
    It swallowed my AI joke to @Leon too, posted right at the end of two different threads!

    Maybe the AI should be able to post 500 comments on every new thread, from scraping half a dozen newspaper websites and reading the previous 500 non-AI comments?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,258
    SouthamObserver said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+1)
    CON: 27% (=)
    LDM: 10% (+1)
    REF: 6% (=)
    GRN: 5% (-2)

    via @YouGov, 12-13 Apr

    (Changes with 6 Apr)

    That's better. I'm far happier to see mid to high teens. It's our turn ffs. It's time to pack up if we can't get a Labour government when there's no rational reason for the floating non-ideological voter to not fancy a change after 14 years of the Tories.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    kjh said:

    turbotubbs said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'd like to request that PB Brexiters refrain from saying that Scottish Independence (or indeed anything) needs a 'rigorous intellectual case'.

    It's making me barf.

    Thing is this - if you've watched Brexit, seen how its gone and the impacts its having, I find it hard to believe anyone can look at Scottish Independence and think, yes, this will work a lot better than Brexit did.

    You can make lots of cases for why Scotland should be independent, but do so only with the sure and certain example of Brexit to guide likely outcomes.

    I also think anyone who advocated Brexit ought to understand the motivation of those who seek Scottish Independence. Its why I found the SNP's complaints about Brexit so frustrating.
    Scottish Independence was a lot more achievable before we Brexited. Now a lot tougher to achieve sensibly. And with the comparison with Northern Ireland it is going to be fun watching Remainer who are Pro Indy and Leavers who are Anti Indy flip their arguments on their head when they argue their cause because they will both be arguing the exact opposite of what they argued before.
    As a Leaver, of Scottish heritage, who’s anti-Indy, it’s easy.

    I’m British.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,571
    kinabalu said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+1)
    CON: 27% (=)
    LDM: 10% (+1)
    REF: 6% (=)
    GRN: 5% (-2)

    via @YouGov, 12-13 Apr

    (Changes with 6 Apr)

    That's better. I'm far happier to see mid to high teens. It's our turn ffs. It's time to pack up if we can't get a Labour government when there's no rational reason for the floating non-ideological voter to not fancy a change after 14 years of the Tories.
    No such thing as our turn....
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,699
    squareroot2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+1)
    CON: 27% (=)
    LDM: 10% (+1)
    REF: 6% (=)
    GRN: 5% (-2)

    via @YouGov, 12-13 Apr

    (Changes with 6 Apr)

    That's better. I'm far happier to see mid to high teens. It's our turn ffs. It's time to pack up if we can't get a Labour government when there's no rational reason for the floating non-ideological voter to not fancy a change after 14 years of the Tories.
    No such thing as our turn....
    Hillary Clinton thought there was.

    I see your point.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    SouthamObserver said:

    Humza Yousaf is very, very Ed Miliband 2014

    No, he’s worse.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    CarlottaVance said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Humza Yousaf is very, very Ed Miliband 2014

    No, he’s worse.
    Could the Liz Truss 49-day leadership record be beaten?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,358
    @whatukthinks
    2m
    Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 34 (+2); wrong 54 (-1). Fwork 12-13.4 (ch since 5-6.4). bit.ly/40gxJaI
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,420
    Scott_xP said:

    @AndrewSparrow
    Humza Yousaf rules out suspending SNP treasurer arrested by police, and says he does not think party now acting criminally -

    "they began to operate what they called 'The Operation'... They would select a victim and then threaten to beat him up if he paid the so-called protection money.

    Four months later they started another operation which the called 'The Other Operation'. In this racket they selected another victim and threatened not to beat him up if he didn't pay them.

    One month later they hit upon 'The Other Other Operation'. In this the victim was threatened that if he didn't pay them, they would beat him up. This for the Piranha brothers was the turning point."
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,516
    Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    turbotubbs said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'd like to request that PB Brexiters refrain from saying that Scottish Independence (or indeed anything) needs a 'rigorous intellectual case'.

    It's making me barf.

    Thing is this - if you've watched Brexit, seen how its gone and the impacts its having, I find it hard to believe anyone can look at Scottish Independence and think, yes, this will work a lot better than Brexit did.

    You can make lots of cases for why Scotland should be independent, but do so only with the sure and certain example of Brexit to guide likely outcomes.

    I also think anyone who advocated Brexit ought to understand the motivation of those who seek Scottish Independence. Its why I found the SNP's complaints about Brexit so frustrating.
    Scottish Independence was a lot more achievable before we Brexited. Now a lot tougher to achieve sensibly. And with the comparison with Northern Ireland it is going to be fun watching Remainer who are Pro Indy and Leavers who are Anti Indy flip their arguments on their head when they argue their cause because they will both be arguing the exact opposite of what they argued before.
    As a Leaver, of Scottish heritage, who’s anti-Indy, it’s easy.

    I’m British.
    Smartypants. You knew what I meant as I can see from your like :wink:
This discussion has been closed.