So independents might affect the Republican nomination, as well as the general election.
(One thing that is difficult to judge at this point: Whether the major news organizations will be more, shall we say, professional, in their coverage. In 2016, they gave Trump incredible amounts of air time and newspaper space, compared to more qualified candidates. Les Moonves of CBS admitted they were doing it for commercial reasons, though he thought Trump would be bad for the nation.
That the coverage was negative actually helped Trump in the nomination fight, since many Republicans distrust our "mainstream" news organizations. Similarly, I wouldn't be suprised to learn that some Conservative voters in the UK might be more attracted to a candidate -- if they were attacked by the Guardian.)
If the rest of the bunch are to have a chance, their fate lies in their own hands. Temporising over Trump, even defending him as they’ve done so far, is a recipe for dismal failure just like the last time.
Seems to me, there is really only one candidate challenger to Trump for top of 2024 GOP ticket - DeSantis.
Rest are running for Veep, at best. With either Haley or Scott looking most qualified, helpful AND available.
Not sure why Pence is running, seeing as how he's as likely to get nominated for ANYTHING in 2024 by Republicans, as is RFK the Younger by Democrats.
Lovely guy.
A pregnant Anya Cook went to a hospital experiencing a pre-viability rupture, but because of Florida’s abortion law, the hospital would not treat her. She ended up having a miscarriage in the bathroom of a hair salon, losing half the blood in her body. https://twitter.com/keithboykin/status/1645469486366208001
Should be noted that at the same stage in the 2010-15 parliament, Labour was polling at around 5-8%. They're clearly in a much, much stronger position now.
Should be noted that at the same stage in the 2010-15 parliament, Labour was polling at around 5-8%. They're clearly in a much, much stronger position now.
Just as well, because they went backwards in 2015.
Had to pay EUR48 for my three kids to visit Knossos and the Archaeological Museum in Heraklion. EU citizens under 26 go free. Another fantastic Brexit dividend.
They tell you this, but it isn’t true. The Cretan minor tour is a myth.
Yes it was very good. It's still a fucking miserable situation to find ourselves in, though. It's made me properly depressed.
So, he's complaining about people taking offence at things... while simultaneously taking offence at gays and the like.
The irony is strong with this one.
True, but he wasn't demanding police go and arrest gays was he?
I hardly think that is the point at issue, unless of course the dolls in the pub were [edit] dressed in pink or something.
That story is barmy on all levels. Six rozzers turn up to nick a bunch of golliwogs from a boozer owned by a couple who think they live in a 70s sitcom. The couple are clearly vile creatures, but 6 coppers? Couldn't they have just sent a pcso to find out what's going on and then clarify the situation and then take appropriate action, rather than make martyrs out of the bigoted tossers?
Oh, quite. Unless they did it in opening hours and were worried about the customer reaction? But then why do it then?
Ah, this just up. Apparently Ms Braverman didn't tick off the Essex plod after all. [Edit: at least, not to Plod's face.]
'Essex police have denied being rebuked by Suella Braverman for seizing a collection of golliwog dolls that were on display in a pub.
Officers from the force took several dolls from the White Hart Inn in Grays, Essex, last week as part of an investigation into an alleged hate crime reported in February.
A source close to Braverman suggested the home secretary had reprimanded the force over the raid, according to MailOnline. [...]
But sources at the force said no contact had been made by Braverman over the investigation.'
I don't know why so many people are trying to make it into an EU Vs Britain issue. Britain is free to set its own rules and I criticised them for being shit. They're shit whether the EU's are shit or not.
You claimed reams of paperwork to get into the UK
You compared it to an American band getting into the EU, using the yardstick of how much they didn't complain
Which is a bit like comparing heights using a ruler and a snail shell
I complained about British bureaucracy, red tape and infringements on liberty and I made the mistake of being drawn into a relative argument about the EU.
So do kindly get fucked.
You brought Ireland into it
Kindly take your vulgar sexual fantasies elsewhere
Only after someone else had tried to confuse the issue by asking about other countries your sad pathetic excuse-monger.
Britain isn't on the EU now. We have control of our own laws. Why has the Conservative government chosen to create pointless bureaucracy for touring musicians? Why do they hate freedom?
The punks were EU punks
We offered the EU reciprocal visa waivers for touring punks
They said punk you, so the EU punks got punked at the border (because they didn't have the right reams of punking paperwork)
A reply to @Stocky, minus the blockquotes as Vanilla is a pile of glitchy shite.
I still think a Labour minority is the most probable outcome, but we shouldn't dismiss the Tories out of hand.
Starmer isn't exactly setting the world on fire, is he? Other recent polling suggests that a lot of Labour voters are dissatisfied with him, and generating enthusiasm is far more important for Labour, which relies on average for a younger voter who is less likely to bother to turn out, than the Tories, who rely more heavily on old crocs who will traipse to the infants' school down the road regardless.
Labour's main selling point is being Not Tories - but is that sufficient? It's all very well saying that the public is ready for change, but a large fraction of the electorate is actually doing well out of the current dispensation - and what change is Labour offering for everyone else, exactly? Do they have anything to give their supporters to make them enthusiastic about turning out to vote, or are they just going to tax the young to buggery to pay for a handful of extra police and nurses, whilst leaving the better-off elderly to enjoy their ever-growing wealth undisturbed, because Starmer is petrified of upsetting wrinklies?
Covid deaths will have had an insignificant impact on overall electoral demography.
Scotland won't be of very much help to Starmer. The very large fraction of the Scottish electorate that is either fixated on independence, or thinks that the SNP is the only exclusively Scottish choice and the Westminster parties don't really care about Scotland, or both, won't turn out for anyone else. I don't see the SNP doing any worse than in 2017, regardless of how much of a pickle they get themselves into (after all, it feels like they've been the incumbent government in Edinburgh for about a hundred years and still most of their voters seem to be disinterested in change.)
I'm of the opinion that Sunak and Hunt will use any improvement in the economy over the next year to justify bribes in the Spring 2024 budget to try to create a feel good factor and buy off wavering voters. If I were in their place I'd abolish IHT to remind olds with big houses and the heirs who's on their side, and knock a couple of pence off the basic rate of income tax, then go to the King the same week. If rampant inflation has finally calmed down and the finances of better off voters at least are a bit less shit by then, it might stand a chance of working.
Beyond that, there's the usual warning that the total seat gain needed even for Labour to achieve a majority of one is huge, and unusual historically. I'm still expecting a Hung Parliament at this juncture, but I reckon that the probability of a Tory majority is greater than that of a Labour one.
The comments on here from Labour supporters about Labour's lead being still strong have an echo of the Tories' ones about the Conservatives' lead being healthy even when Johnson was having his problems. These things tend not to be a problem until they are a problem, if you see what I mean.
Yeah but you'd expect to see more evidence that Labour's lead was soft, such as Sunak having much better ratings than Starmer. And a lot of the issues with Johnson were initially masked by things such as Covid and the vaccine roll-out.
If there's an elephant in the room with Labour, it should be more obvious as to what the elephant is.
Should be noted that at the same stage in the 2010-15 parliament, Labour was polling at around 5-8%. They're clearly in a much, much stronger position now.
Just as well, because they went backwards in 2015.
Because of Scotland... they had actually recorded net gains against the Conservatives (albeit, a handful).
Can work well with foreign leaders (39% | 35%) Can build a strong economy (38% | 37%)
Starmer leads on:
Represents change (43% | 30%) Cares about people like me (41% | 28%) Knows how to get things done (35% | 33%)
Making Sunak the "change" candidate, like John Major in 92 doesn't seem to have worked (perhaps because Con have changed leaders so many times since 2016?) but it's interesting that Sunak now had a small lead on building a strong economy.
People perhaps starting to feel inflation has peaked?
Should be noted that at the same stage in the 2010-15 parliament, Labour was polling at around 5-8%. They're clearly in a much, much stronger position now.
Just as well, because they went backwards in 2015.
Because of Scotland... they had actually recorded net gains against the Conservatives (albeit, a handful).
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton · 15s Labour leads by 14%, the narrowest lead for Labour since Rishi Sunak became PM.
Westminster VI (9 April):
Labour 44% (-1) Conservative 30% (+2) Liberal Democrat 10% (-2) Reform UK 6% (+1) Green 5% (+1) SNP 3% (-1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 2 April
Definite narrowing. It is undeniable. It's clear that previous Don't Knows are returning to the Tories. What we have yet to see, though, is any sign of direct switchers to Labour having a change of heart. It starts to get very interesting if that happens.
Labour will form the next government, I'm very sure.
Cameron struggled to get a majority and Conservatives are in a much worse state than they were then. Sunak is popular but not more so than Cameron was. Plus Covid's removed some older voters.
Boundary change may favour the CP a bit but Scotland is the dynamic which will get Labour over the line, probably into majority territory. The implosion of SNP will prove decisive. Don't rely on 2019 GE as any sort of guide to 2024, that's my advice.
Sunak is very good, and more popular than Starmer, but it won't be nearly enough to counteract time for a change.
There is not much polling evidence that Sunak is more popular than Starmer. He's just not as unpopular as either Johnson or Truss. In today's R&W, for example, Starmer is ahead on both favourability and best PM.
Keith still not exactly setting the world alight for LOTO
A reply to @Stocky, minus the blockquotes as Vanilla is a pile of glitchy shite.
I still think a Labour minority is the most probable outcome, but we shouldn't dismiss the Tories out of hand.
Starmer isn't exactly setting the world on fire, is he? Other recent polling suggests that a lot of Labour voters are dissatisfied with him, and generating enthusiasm is far more important for Labour, which relies on average for a younger voter who is less likely to bother to turn out, than the Tories, who rely more heavily on old crocs who will traipse to the infants' school down the road regardless.
Labour's main selling point is being Not Tories - but is that sufficient? It's all very well saying that the public is ready for change, but a large fraction of the electorate is actually doing well out of the current dispensation - and what change is Labour offering for everyone else, exactly? Do they have anything to give their supporters to make them enthusiastic about turning out to vote, or are they just going to tax the young to buggery to pay for a handful of extra police and nurses, whilst leaving the better-off elderly to enjoy their ever-growing wealth undisturbed, because Starmer is petrified of upsetting wrinklies?
Covid deaths will have had an insignificant impact on overall electoral demography.
Scotland won't be of very much help to Starmer. The very large fraction of the Scottish electorate that is either fixated on independence, or thinks that the SNP is the only exclusively Scottish choice and the Westminster parties don't really care about Scotland, or both, won't turn out for anyone else. I don't see the SNP doing any worse than in 2017, regardless of how much of a pickle they get themselves into (after all, it feels like they've been the incumbent government in Edinburgh for about a hundred years and still most of their voters seem to be disinterested in change.)
I'm of the opinion that Sunak and Hunt will use any improvement in the economy over the next year to justify bribes in the Spring 2024 budget to try to create a feel good factor and buy off wavering voters. If I were in their place I'd abolish IHT to remind olds with big houses and the heirs who's on their side, and knock a couple of pence off the basic rate of income tax, then go to the King the same week. If rampant inflation has finally calmed down and the finances of better off voters at least are a bit less shit by then, it might stand a chance of working.
Beyond that, there's the usual warning that the total seat gain needed even for Labour to achieve a majority of one is huge, and unusual historically. I'm still expecting a Hung Parliament at this juncture, but I reckon that the probability of a Tory majority is greater than that of a Labour one.
Why is reducing the tax burden (which is what you suggest) considered a “bribe”?
I could get the argument that it’s not wise, but you seem to have muddled up in your head whether money belongs to the government or the voters in the first place
OK, an incentive. I was speaking informally: the money belongs to the voter; Parliament relieves the voter of some of their money in taxation to pay for stuff that it feels is necessary.
We could argue until the cows come home about whether it would be best to use flexibility in the public finances to spend more on schools, or defence, or to lower the tax burden. That's by-the-by: if I were close to ministers and fixated on nothing else beyond their self-interest in remaining in office, I'd advise them to cut tax rather than spend more. They can always find something else to tax to raise more money, after the election is safely out of the way, if they feel the necessity.
As to what I think is best, I believe that a high tax burden is unavoidable because our public services and our infrastructure are both in a state and a very large fraction of the adult population is, putting it crudely, sick, fat or old. As to where this should come from: less onerous taxes on earned incomes, much higher taxation of asset wealth, and a lot of money can be freed up going forward by downgrading the triple lock to something less generous, so that pensioner incomes don't keep accelerating away from those of working people in an unsustainable fashion.
I don't know why so many people are trying to make it into an EU Vs Britain issue. Britain is free to set its own rules and I criticised them for being shit. They're shit whether the EU's are shit or not.
You claimed reams of paperwork to get into the UK
You compared it to an American band getting into the EU, using the yardstick of how much they didn't complain
Which is a bit like comparing heights using a ruler and a snail shell
I complained about British bureaucracy, red tape and infringements on liberty and I made the mistake of being drawn into a relative argument about the EU.
So do kindly get fucked.
You brought Ireland into it
Kindly take your vulgar sexual fantasies elsewhere
Only after someone else had tried to confuse the issue by asking about other countries your sad pathetic excuse-monger.
Britain isn't on the EU now. We have control of our own laws. Why has the Conservative government chosen to create pointless bureaucracy for touring musicians? Why do they hate freedom?
Because we offered reciprocity and the EU declined.
Had to pay EUR48 for my three kids to visit Knossos and the Archaeological Museum in Heraklion. EU citizens under 26 go free. Another fantastic Brexit dividend.
They tell you this, but it isn’t true. The Cretan minor tour is a myth.
Yes it was very good. It's still a fucking miserable situation to find ourselves in, though. It's made me properly depressed.
can you go to a site associated with Jason next, so I can say you’ve been fleeced?
I see the progressive erosion of Labour's lead and the creepback of the Conservatives is being steadily explained away on here, bit by bit, because it is happening over several months and incrementally.
Nevertheless, it is there.
It won't take much for the Conservatives to get back to the 33-35% bracket, and Labour descend to 37-39%, and then we have a whole different ballgame.
The Con revival does seem to be gathering pace. Biggest risk for Con is the ERG mob losing the plot again and blowing the revival out of the water.
However, after their humiliation on the Windsor Framework vote hopefully they've been put back in their box.
They're a busted flush. There'll always be technical discussions to be had with the EU, but the substance of the relationship seems to be settled for the time being. Brussels, Dublin and London all proclaim themselves satisfied, Sunak is not about to do a backwards flip and start shit-stirring like Johnson would, and the number of voters in Great Britain who sympathise with the DUP and its endless whining is almost zero. The ERG's members will probably spend more time moaning about the BBC and transsexuals in future than about Europe.
I see the progressive erosion of Labour's lead and the creepback of the Conservatives is being steadily explained away on here, bit by bit, because it is happening over several months and incrementally.
Nevertheless, it is there.
It won't take much for the Conservatives to get back to the 33-35% bracket, and Labour descend to 37-39%, and then we have a whole different ballgame.
The Conservatives won't poll less than a third of the popular vote at the next GE, and could do considerably better than that, depending on circumstances. Even John Major in 1997 managed about 31%, Starmer is no Blair, and the mean age of the electorate has increased since then. It's why all the hyperventilation about Labour landslides and Tory wipeouts, based on some outrageous mid-term polling leads, has always been overblown.
I see the progressive erosion of Labour's lead and the creepback of the Conservatives is being steadily explained away on here, bit by bit, because it is happening over several months and incrementally.
Nevertheless, it is there.
It won't take much for the Conservatives to get back to the 33-35% bracket, and Labour descend to 37-39%, and then we have a whole different ballgame.
The Con revival does seem to be gathering pace. Biggest risk for Con is the ERG mob losing the plot again and blowing the revival out of the water.
However, after their humiliation on the Windsor Framework vote hopefully they've been put back in their box.
They're a busted flush. There'll always be technical discussions to be had with the EU, but the substance of the relationship seems to be settled for the time being. Brussels, Dublin and London all proclaim themselves satisfied, Sunak is not about to do a backwards flip and start shit-stirring like Johnson would, and the number of voters in Great Britain who sympathise with the DUP and its endless whining is almost zero. The ERG's members will probably spend more time moaning about the BBC and transsexuals in future than about Europe.
I see the progressive erosion of Labour's lead and the creepback of the Conservatives is being steadily explained away on here, bit by bit, because it is happening over several months and incrementally.
Nevertheless, it is there.
It won't take much for the Conservatives to get back to the 33-35% bracket, and Labour descend to 37-39%, and then we have a whole different ballgame.
The Conservatives won't poll less than a third of the popular vote at the next GE, and could do considerably better than that, depending on circumstances. Even John Major in 1997 managed about 31%, Starmer is no Blair, and the mean age of the electorate has increased since then. It's why all the hyperventilation about Labour landslides and Tory wipeouts, based on some outrageous mid-term polling leads, has always been overblown.
AFAIK only one person on here has ever talked about Labour landslides. A small Labour majority remains my call. I haven't seen anything in the polling to dissuade me from that view either - the Labour lead has narrowed a bit but I see this as the continued unwind of some of the damage caused by the Trusterfuck. I don't think the Tory revival is gathering pace as some have argued, at least that's not the picture from the Wikipedia squiggly line, which I view as the definitive indicator.
Had to pay EUR48 for my three kids to visit Knossos and the Archaeological Museum in Heraklion. EU citizens under 26 go free. Another fantastic Brexit dividend.
They tell you this, but it isn’t true. The Cretan minor tour is a myth.
Yes it was very good. It's still a fucking miserable situation to find ourselves in, though. It's made me properly depressed.
So you begrudge investing in your children’s’ education? Or you resent supporting archaeological investigations and cultural protection in other countries?
Had to pay EUR48 for my three kids to visit Knossos and the Archaeological Museum in Heraklion. EU citizens under 26 go free. Another fantastic Brexit dividend.
They tell you this, but it isn’t true. The Cretan minor tour is a myth.
Yes it was very good. It's still a fucking miserable situation to find ourselves in, though. It's made me properly depressed.
can you go to a site associated with Jason next, so I can say you’ve been fleeced?
A good punster works with the material they've been given.
Sam Freedman @Samfr · 1h This lower lead is due to DKs coming back to the Tories. The number of Tory 2019s saying they'll vote Labour is the same as a few weeks ago when the topline lead was 21pts.
Glancing at the data tables, the 2019 Conservative vote now splits 62% Conservative, 15% Labour, 11% Don’t Know and 9% Reform so I’m not entirely convinced.
That’s more than just DKs returning - I’m sure the number breaking to Labour was nearer 20% a few weeks back.
I do have some doubts about this poll - the largest England sub sample, London, has 32% Conservative while the larger YouGov last week had an 18% Conservative VI so perhaps some over sampling of London Tories has just pushed this close to outlier territory.
Resetting the R&W numbers to the YouGov numbers would add 1% to the overall Labour total and take 1.5% off the Conservative number.
Had to pay EUR48 for my three kids to visit Knossos and the Archaeological Museum in Heraklion. EU citizens under 26 go free. Another fantastic Brexit dividend.
They tell you this, but it isn’t true. The Cretan minor tour is a myth.
Yes it was very good. It's still a fucking miserable situation to find ourselves in, though. It's made me properly depressed.
can you go to a site associated with Jason next, so I can say you’ve been fleeced?
A good punster works with the material they've been given.
In that case, I shall content myself with saying that your fee is what a Grecian urns.
Should be noted that at the same stage in the 2010-15 parliament, Labour was polling at around 35-40%. They're clearly in a much, much stronger position now.
Had to pay EUR48 for my three kids to visit Knossos and the Archaeological Museum in Heraklion. EU citizens under 26 go free. Another fantastic Brexit dividend.
They tell you this, but it isn’t true. The Cretan minor tour is a myth.
Yes it was very good. It's still a fucking miserable situation to find ourselves in, though. It's made me properly depressed.
So you begrudge investing in your children’s’ education? Or you resent supporting archaeological investigations and cultural protection in other countries?
I think it's sad that British young people are excluded from opportunities to learn about our European cultural heritage. More broadly, I think it is sad that while young people across Europe are sharing ideas, falling in love and living without borders, our young people are shut out from the opportunities that others take for granted - and we used to too. I don't mind paying the money - EUR48 is less than 20 minutes work for me - but there are plenty of young people who will simply not have these opportunities now. That is desperately sad.
I’ve just ordered my second pint of Strongbow at the High Orchard in Gloucester.
It’s not too bad at all as a pub although the peas I had with the scampi were maybe a bit over cooked. Comfortable, good service, friendly staff, lots of room. And the peas apart the food was good.
Peas need very little cooking. Just a quick dunk in boiling water.
Had to pay EUR48 for my three kids to visit Knossos and the Archaeological Museum in Heraklion. EU citizens under 26 go free. Another fantastic Brexit dividend.
They tell you this, but it isn’t true. The Cretan minor tour is a myth.
Yes it was very good. It's still a fucking miserable situation to find ourselves in, though. It's made me properly depressed.
So you begrudge investing in your children’s’ education? Or you resent supporting archaeological investigations and cultural protection in other countries?
I think it's sad that British young people are excluded from opportunities to learn about our European cultural heritage. More broadly, I think it is sad that while young people across Europe are sharing ideas, falling in love and living without borders, our young people are shut out from the opportunities that others take for granted - and we used to too. I don't mind paying the money - EUR48 is less than 20 minutes work for me - but there are plenty of young people who will simply not have these opportunities now. That is desperately sad.
Surely they can go and see the Elgin marbles for free?
A reply to @Stocky, minus the blockquotes as Vanilla is a pile of glitchy shite.
I still think a Labour minority is the most probable outcome, but we shouldn't dismiss the Tories out of hand.
Starmer isn't exactly setting the world on fire, is he? Other recent polling suggests that a lot of Labour voters are dissatisfied with him, and generating enthusiasm is far more important for Labour, which relies on average for a younger voter who is less likely to bother to turn out, than the Tories, who rely more heavily on old crocs who will traipse to the infants' school down the road regardless.
Labour's main selling point is being Not Tories - but is that sufficient? It's all very well saying that the public is ready for change, but a large fraction of the electorate is actually doing well out of the current dispensation - and what change is Labour offering for everyone else, exactly? Do they have anything to give their supporters to make them enthusiastic about turning out to vote, or are they just going to tax the young to buggery to pay for a handful of extra police and nurses, whilst leaving the better-off elderly to enjoy their ever-growing wealth undisturbed, because Starmer is petrified of upsetting wrinklies?
Covid deaths will have had an insignificant impact on overall electoral demography.
Scotland won't be of very much help to Starmer. The very large fraction of the Scottish electorate that is either fixated on independence, or thinks that the SNP is the only exclusively Scottish choice and the Westminster parties don't really care about Scotland, or both, won't turn out for anyone else. I don't see the SNP doing any worse than in 2017, regardless of how much of a pickle they get themselves into (after all, it feels like they've been the incumbent government in Edinburgh for about a hundred years and still most of their voters seem to be disinterested in change.)
I'm of the opinion that Sunak and Hunt will use any improvement in the economy over the next year to justify bribes in the Spring 2024 budget to try to create a feel good factor and buy off wavering voters. If I were in their place I'd abolish IHT to remind olds with big houses and the heirs who's on their side, and knock a couple of pence off the basic rate of income tax, then go to the King the same week. If rampant inflation has finally calmed down and the finances of better off voters at least are a bit less shit by then, it might stand a chance of working.
Beyond that, there's the usual warning that the total seat gain needed even for Labour to achieve a majority of one is huge, and unusual historically. I'm still expecting a Hung Parliament at this juncture, but I reckon that the probability of a Tory majority is greater than that of a Labour one.
Why is reducing the tax burden (which is what you suggest) considered a “bribe”?
I could get the argument that it’s not wise, but you seem to have muddled up in your head whether money belongs to the government or the voters in the first place
There is no 'in the first place'. The net belongs to you. The tax belongs to the government.
Where does it go from here? Labour really needs to come out with positive reasons to vote for them, of which the public think there are few. I personally think there is a lot of traction in the 'Big State' line and there are probably things that can be done to improve matters that are more a matter of process than throwing money (for example, I would take a look at the university system for medicine students and see if there is anything that can be done to increase the future supply of doctors and / or offer cancellation of student debt if doctors agree to go into short-staffed areas).
Technical solutions like this aren't going to get Labour out of its vision problem. Nobody is going to get worked up over medical bursaries, and besides if they unveil anything this side of the manifesto launch that sounds like a good idea and relatively quick and cheap to implement, then the Tories will simply appropriate it in some form.
You can't deal with crumbling schools and hospitals, vast numbers of NHS vacancies, recruiting all those extra police Labour claim to want, clearing the backlogs in the criminal justice system, putting the social care problem to bed and much else besides without a lot of money. Labour needs to list its priorities, explain how they will make people's lives better, and explain which kinds of businesses and individuals are going to be treated with kid gloves, and who is going to be grabbed by the ankles and shaken down to pay for it all.
Timidity won't cut it here. If Labour try to sell themselves as better managers of the existing system then Tory voters will stick with the real Tories rather than the fake ones, and Labour voters will have nothing to inspire them to turn out.
On inflation here in the US: This morning I saw an ad from Arco claiming they sell quality gasoline for less. So we are starting to see price competition here in one of the most sensitive products, politically.
(It wouldn't surprise me if something similar happened soon, in the UK.)
I’ve just ordered my second pint of Strongbow at the High Orchard in Gloucester.
It’s not too bad at all as a pub although the peas I had with the scampi were maybe a bit over cooked. Comfortable, good service, friendly staff, lots of room. And the peas apart the food was good.
Peas need very little cooking. Just a quick dunk in boiling water.
Had to pay EUR48 for my three kids to visit Knossos and the Archaeological Museum in Heraklion. EU citizens under 26 go free. Another fantastic Brexit dividend.
They tell you this, but it isn’t true. The Cretan minor tour is a myth.
Yes it was very good. It's still a fucking miserable situation to find ourselves in, though. It's made me properly depressed.
can you go to a site associated with Jason next, so I can say you’ve been fleeced?
People will have to forget just how bad they thought the Conservatives to be (and still think them to be), for the Conservatives to overturn the Labour lead.
It doesn’t matter who is to “blame” over the travelling punks.
The point is that we were promised both our cake and eating it, and that Britain held all the cards, and those turned out to be profoundly false ideas.
Britain - perhaps more specifically London - was the financial and cultural capital of Europe before Brexit, and slowly but surely those positions are being eroded.
The attempt to deflect criticism onto the Guardian/the punks/the EU is merely a perpetuation of Brexity gaslighting.
Had to pay EUR48 for my three kids to visit Knossos and the Archaeological Museum in Heraklion. EU citizens under 26 go free. Another fantastic Brexit dividend.
They tell you this, but it isn’t true. The Cretan minor tour is a myth.
Yes it was very good. It's still a fucking miserable situation to find ourselves in, though. It's made me properly depressed.
So you begrudge investing in your children’s’ education? Or you resent supporting archaeological investigations and cultural protection in other countries?
I think it's sad that British young people are excluded from opportunities to learn about our European cultural heritage. More broadly, I think it is sad that while young people across Europe are sharing ideas, falling in love and living without borders, our young people are shut out from the opportunities that others take for granted - and we used to too. I don't mind paying the money - EUR48 is less than 20 minutes work for me - but there are plenty of young people who will simply not have these opportunities now. That is desperately sad.
They are not excluded from the opportunity. It’s just not paid for by people poorer than you
A reply to @Stocky, minus the blockquotes as Vanilla is a pile of glitchy shite.
I still think a Labour minority is the most probable outcome, but we shouldn't dismiss the Tories out of hand.
Starmer isn't exactly setting the world on fire, is he? Other recent polling suggests that a lot of Labour voters are dissatisfied with him, and generating enthusiasm is far more important for Labour, which relies on average for a younger voter who is less likely to bother to turn out, than the Tories, who rely more heavily on old crocs who will traipse to the infants' school down the road regardless.
Labour's main selling point is being Not Tories - but is that sufficient? It's all very well saying that the public is ready for change, but a large fraction of the electorate is actually doing well out of the current dispensation - and what change is Labour offering for everyone else, exactly? Do they have anything to give their supporters to make them enthusiastic about turning out to vote, or are they just going to tax the young to buggery to pay for a handful of extra police and nurses, whilst leaving the better-off elderly to enjoy their ever-growing wealth undisturbed, because Starmer is petrified of upsetting wrinklies?
Covid deaths will have had an insignificant impact on overall electoral demography.
Scotland won't be of very much help to Starmer. The very large fraction of the Scottish electorate that is either fixated on independence, or thinks that the SNP is the only exclusively Scottish choice and the Westminster parties don't really care about Scotland, or both, won't turn out for anyone else. I don't see the SNP doing any worse than in 2017, regardless of how much of a pickle they get themselves into (after all, it feels like they've been the incumbent government in Edinburgh for about a hundred years and still most of their voters seem to be disinterested in change.)
I'm of the opinion that Sunak and Hunt will use any improvement in the economy over the next year to justify bribes in the Spring 2024 budget to try to create a feel good factor and buy off wavering voters. If I were in their place I'd abolish IHT to remind olds with big houses and the heirs who's on their side, and knock a couple of pence off the basic rate of income tax, then go to the King the same week. If rampant inflation has finally calmed down and the finances of better off voters at least are a bit less shit by then, it might stand a chance of working.
Beyond that, there's the usual warning that the total seat gain needed even for Labour to achieve a majority of one is huge, and unusual historically. I'm still expecting a Hung Parliament at this juncture, but I reckon that the probability of a Tory majority is greater than that of a Labour one.
Why is reducing the tax burden (which is what you suggest) considered a “bribe”?
I could get the argument that it’s not wise, but you seem to have muddled up in your head whether money belongs to the government or the voters in the first place
There is no 'in the first place'. The net belongs to you. The tax belongs to the government.
Which is why I wrote “money” not “tax”
As a parallel - imagine a mugger stopped you on the street and took all of your money except £20 so you could get a taxi home. Would you consider that a bribe?
People will have to forget just how bad they thought the Conservatives to be (and still think them to be), for the Conservatives to overturn the Labour lead.
Is that likely?
Lots of voters have done very well indeed out of the last thirteen years.
Of the remainder, it only takes a sufficient number to dislike or distrust the Tories a smidgen less than Labour to make up the numbers.
Once again I emphasise that, given the Conservatives have been in power for a long time, how many people have been economically immiserated in recent years, and that a decent chunk of the population has repented of Brexit, I'm not expecting them actually to win - but I don't think the scenario is wholly implausible either.
On inflation here in the US: This morning I saw an ad from Arco claiming they sell quality gasoline for less. So we are starting to see price competition here in one of the most sensitive products, politically.
(It wouldn't surprise me if something similar happened soon, in the UK.)
I’ll get excited by what I like. And I like that one
There must be a significant chance of a Labour lead in a real Scottish poll quite soon. Especially for Westminster. As has been noted, support for Indy has become detached from support for the SNP, which is truly bad news for the Nits
Also, right now, what person with an IQ over 63 is thinking “yep, the SNP, they’re doing well and they deserve my vote”
BorderGuard: Are you going to use the “certificate of sponsorship route”
Band: “No we are going to use the Permitted Paid Exemption route instead”
BG: “ok. Please show me your formal invitation, proof of funds and return ticket”
Band: errr…
The bit in italics is not in the article. It goes directly from the band intention to use the PPE route to them being denied entry and blaming Brexit.
Do you think it would be helpful for us to be told *why* they were denied entry under the PPE route?
Okay, fine. I'll chalk your down as another fan of bureaucracy and red tape and an enemy to freedom then, because your defence of my criticism is that they didn't have the necessary paperwork to fulfill the rules.
Why should they need reams of paperwork in the first place? What good does it do?
And it's not about Brexit. It's about the government's choice to impose bureaucracy and red tape because the freedom of foreign punk bands to come and play in Britain threatens them, because they hate freedom.
Did you care before Brexit when non-EU bands faced the same hurdles? Do you know what rules other countries have? Are ours unusually onerous, or about normal?
I don't need to be an expert in the field, or have a decades-long campaigning record on the issue, before complaining about it.
What I do know is that I went to a gig by a couple of lads from Minnesota in Ireland recently and they weren't complaining about the paperwork for their entry.
If Britain wants to be a country that cuts itself off from the world and criticises people for not filling in paperwork properly then I guess that's your choice. But I think it's a sad way for the country to go.
So it would have been fine if the German punks hadn't complained..
They complained because they weren't let in you dolt.
And the yanks didn't complain because they had the right paperwork
You dolt
They would have complained if there had been lots of it. After all they complained enough about US/Canadian border paperwork.
Don't be such a prick.
What a prickish way to judge visa paperwork
UK - Reams of unfair bullshit
EU - Exactly right and what you voted for
If I looked at it I might complain about EU visa paperwork, but that's not really the point.
Actually, it’s the almost the same point. The Brexiteers decided to introduce barriers which weren’t there before, which greatly restrict such cultural exchange with Europe. It’s a direct result of the crappy deal we ended up doing.
Has anyone checked yet if the Humza honeymoon bounce was off the roof?
It will come when he challenges the UK Government's Imperial Veto in court.
The Scottish government is this week expected to lodge a judicial review of the section 35 order introduced by Westminster to block the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill, which would allow people to change gender more quickly and reduce the age threshold to 16.
Has anyone checked yet if the Humza honeymoon bounce was off the roof?
It will come when he challenges the UK Government's Imperial Veto in court.
The Scottish government is this week expected to lodge a judicial review of the section 35 order introduced by Westminster to block the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill, which would allow people to change gender more quickly and reduce the age threshold to 16.
On the subject of good value supermarket wine, Lidl have a 2019 Chianti Reserva for £6.50 a bottle that Decanter magazine scored at 92/100. It really is rather good.
On inflation here in the US: This morning I saw an ad from Arco claiming they sell quality gasoline for less. So we are starting to see price competition here in one of the most sensitive products, politically.
(It wouldn't surprise me if something similar happened soon, in the UK.)
Arco gas is shite though
Gas is gas (or petrol is petrol, if you prefer), surely?
Had to pay EUR48 for my three kids to visit Knossos and the Archaeological Museum in Heraklion. EU citizens under 26 go free. Another fantastic Brexit dividend.
They tell you this, but it isn’t true. The Cretan minor tour is a myth.
Yes it was very good. It's still a fucking miserable situation to find ourselves in, though. It's made me properly depressed.
So you begrudge investing in your children’s’ education? Or you resent supporting archaeological investigations and cultural protection in other countries?
I think it's sad that British young people are excluded from opportunities to learn about our European cultural heritage. More broadly, I think it is sad that while young people across Europe are sharing ideas, falling in love and living without borders, our young people are shut out from the opportunities that others take for granted - and we used to too. I don't mind paying the money - EUR48 is less than 20 minutes work for me - but there are plenty of young people who will simply not have these opportunities now. That is desperately sad.
Its tragic . There’s also a real nastiness with some Leavers who seem to take joy in this cultural vandalism. The Tories and the rest of the Vote Leave cabal should rot in hell . Shame on all those who robbed the younger generation especially of their freedom of movement rights.
Sam Freedman @Samfr · 1h This lower lead is due to DKs coming back to the Tories. The number of Tory 2019s saying they'll vote Labour is the same as a few weeks ago when the topline lead was 21pts.
Glancing at the data tables, the 2019 Conservative vote now splits 62% Conservative, 15% Labour, 11% Don’t Know and 9% Reform so I’m not entirely convinced.
That’s more than just DKs returning - I’m sure the number breaking to Labour was nearer 20% a few weeks back.
I do have some doubts about this poll - the largest England sub sample, London, has 32% Conservative while the larger YouGov last week had an 18% Conservative VI so perhaps some over sampling of London Tories has just pushed this close to outlier territory.
Resetting the R&W numbers to the YouGov numbers would add 1% to the overall Labour total and take 1.5% off the Conservative number.
One of the old rules of polling is Be Suspicious Of Any Polls Taken Over The Holidays, because it's harder than normal to get a properly balanced sample.
Yes, there's been a move back to the Conservatives recently, but their average is still comparable with where they were with ICM through 1995 and 1996, and we all know how that ended up.
If there polls were neck and neck at say 38pc.. what would the likely result be?
Tories about 40 short of a majority.
Labour would take office with Lib-Dem/SNP/Green abstaining on their first Queens Speech/Budget and we'd be back to the polls within the year?
That should be Kings Speech of course.
Still hard to get your head around us having a King rather than a Queen... And does anyone else still refer to Charles as Prince Charles rather than King Charles? I think Charles destiny is to forever be the King that everyone remembers as a Prince lol...
If there polls were neck and neck at say 38pc.. what would the likely result be?
Tories about 40 short of a majority.
Labour would take office with Lib-Dem/SNP/Green abstaining on their first Queens Speech/Budget and we'd be back to the polls within the year?
That should be Kings Speech of course.
Still hard to get your head around us having a King rather than a Queen... And does anyone else still refer to Charles as Prince Charles rather than King Charles? I think Charles desinty of forever to be the King that everyone remembers as a Prince lol...
Whenever I read about the Prince of Wales I always think ah Prince Charles, not Prince WIlliam.
If there polls were neck and neck at say 38pc.. what would the likely result be?
Tories about 40 short of a majority.
Labour would take office with Lib-Dem/SNP/Green abstaining on their first Queens Speech/Budget and we'd be back to the polls within the year?
That should be Kings Speech of course.
Still hard to get your head around us having a King rather than a Queen... And does anyone else still refer to Charles as Prince Charles rather than King Charles? I think Charles desinty of forever to be the King that everyone remembers as a Prince lol...
If there polls were neck and neck at say 38pc.. what would the likely result be?
Tories about 40 short of a majority.
Labour would take office with Lib-Dem/SNP/Green abstaining on their first Queens Speech/Budget and we'd be back to the polls within the year?
If the Tories ended up with around 280 seats or more then there'd be a real risk that Labour wouldn't last even that long. It would all come down to exactly how well the SNP did, and whether or not they stuck to their self-denying ordnance with respect to votes not directly affecting Scotland. It's possible to envisage a scenario in which Labour can secure confidence and supply, but the Conservatives have a majority in votes on most English domestic policy. That wouldn't be sustainable.
The government must have hoped that simply making bloodcurdling threats would be enough to dissuade the boat people; that's two barges full there and then and more than Rwanda Air can process, even if that scheme ever gets off the ground.
It's not my tribe, but anyone like to suggest a number that will cause those who think that reducing boat people numbers is a key priority to conclude that Rishi and Sue are blagging / failing?
{Note there is zero space the way RDS spells his surname. Says guy who can't spell "Barack" right half the time!}
Word on the street is that both 2024 GOP hopefuls from the great Palmetto State of South Carolina, former Gov. Nikki Haley and current US Sen. Tim Scott, are REALLY running for Vice President. At least THIS cycle.
As for Florida's answer to Viktor Orban, Ron DeSantis most definitely has a chance of beating out Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. PROVIDED he can play his cards correctly in a VERY high-stakes poker game.
For one thing, no doubt that majority of GOP politicos would much rather have RDS as their standard-bearer. Especially in swing states and districts. And that growing numbers of Republican voters are clearly coming to same conclusion.
Agree with Haley and Scott are really thinking about the VP side. Personally, I would prefer Scott but either is fine.
I'm not sure about RDS beating Trump which is why I have been beating the drum about RDS doing a deal with Trump and standing as his VP pick (and, yes, I know about the one state rule and it has been gotten round before / is easy to get round). This from the NY Magazine (via MSN):
As for Mike's argument, one counter-argument. If you look at the Republicans and Democrats, their score between March 30th and April 6th on whether he should be prosecuted have barely budged but the Independents showed a large swing towards yes. It could easily swing back. Even those who might be sympathetic to a Trump conviction say the case is not exactly strong.
The New York case is not strong. In fact, it should never have been filed. (But you know what, that's what happens when you have elected prosecutors.)
But there are two significantly more problematic legal cases coming up:
- The Georgia election interference case - Valuing building at one level for tax purposes, and at 3x that level in documentation with the bank: either it's tax fraud or mail fraud.
In addition to these, there's the documents case, where Trump instructed his lawyers to lie and to confirm everything had been returned. Again, this isn't as serious as the mail fraud/tax fraud or electoral interference once, but it's one where his lawyer appears to have effectively flipped, and which there is no meaningful defence.
It is entirely possible that we will not hear again from the New York case, but will hear a lot about the others.
Yes, Georgia seems to be the most problematic of the three. The documents case is definitely an issue but it is clouded by Biden's own mishaps (which seem to have slipped off the radar screen).
I think the problem here for those hoping Trump will be derailed is the order of the cases. For somebody looking to take out Trump, the NY case should not have been the first because it is baking in the idea that the cases against him are politically motivated and that will compromise - potentially - how people look at the other cases (plus the usual grounds for appeal etc). I see Bill Barr came out against it and a lot of vox pop Republican voters who don't want DJT to run again nevertheless say they think the case is BS.
The thing is that, despite all the talk about Trump being a liability, the polls still show a close race in a T v B election with neither looking to have entirely convinced the electorate.
The documents case is not about the documents any more, it is about Trump's instruction to his lawyer to sign an affidavit confirming that all documents had been returned.
The original offence is a misdemeanor. The cover up likely a felony.
On the politics side, well, that's what happens when you have elected DAs. It doesn't help, too, that Trump has - like many Billionaires, I suspect - skated the line many many times.
Similarly with the Stormy Daniels case. I only found out the other day that the payment from Trump to Cohen was grossed up for tax because if it was declared as legal expenses then obviously that was going to be taxable in Cohen's hands whereas repayment for a payoff wouldn't be.
That shows that Trump knew exactly what he was doing in trying to disguise the payment. Hell he was even willing to pay more to do so. Bizarrely of course that means Cohen and hence Trump (because he funded it) overpaid tax just so he could disguise the nature of the payment.
Can anyone think of another reason for Trump to pay for something he didn't have to pay for (particularly taxes even if they were someone else's taxes).
Of course if he had been open in what he was doing this wouldn't have arisen.
If there polls were neck and neck at say 38pc.. what would the likely result be?
Tories about 40 short of a majority.
Labour would take office with Lib-Dem/SNP/Green abstaining on their first Queens Speech/Budget and we'd be back to the polls within the year?
That should be Kings Speech of course.
Still hard to get your head around us having a King rather than a Queen... And does anyone else still refer to Charles as Prince Charles rather than King Charles? I think Charles destiny is to forever be the King that everyone remembers as a Prince lol...
If there polls were neck and neck at say 38pc.. what would the likely result be?
Tories about 40 short of a majority.
Labour would take office with Lib-Dem/SNP/Green abstaining on their first Queens Speech/Budget and we'd be back to the polls within the year?
That should be Kings Speech of course.
Still hard to get your head around us having a King rather than a Queen... And does anyone else still refer to Charles as Prince Charles rather than King Charles? I think Charles destiny is to forever be the King that everyone remembers as a Prince lol...
BorderGuard: Are you going to use the “certificate of sponsorship route”
Band: “No we are going to use the Permitted Paid Exemption route instead”
BG: “ok. Please show me your formal invitation, proof of funds and return ticket”
Band: errr…
The bit in italics is not in the article. It goes directly from the band intention to use the PPE route to them being denied entry and blaming Brexit.
Do you think it would be helpful for us to be told *why* they were denied entry under the PPE route?
Okay, fine. I'll chalk your down as another fan of bureaucracy and red tape and an enemy to freedom then, because your defence of my criticism is that they didn't have the necessary paperwork to fulfill the rules.
Why should they need reams of paperwork in the first place? What good does it do?
And it's not about Brexit. It's about the government's choice to impose bureaucracy and red tape because the freedom of foreign punk bands to come and play in Britain threatens them, because they hate freedom.
Did you care before Brexit when non-EU bands faced the same hurdles? Do you know what rules other countries have? Are ours unusually onerous, or about normal?
I don't need to be an expert in the field, or have a decades-long campaigning record on the issue, before complaining about it.
What I do know is that I went to a gig by a couple of lads from Minnesota in Ireland recently and they weren't complaining about the paperwork for their entry.
If Britain wants to be a country that cuts itself off from the world and criticises people for not filling in paperwork properly then I guess that's your choice. But I think it's a sad way for the country to go.
So it would have been fine if the German punks hadn't complained..
They complained because they weren't let in you dolt.
And the yanks didn't complain because they had the right paperwork
You dolt
They would have complained if there had been lots of it. After all they complained enough about US/Canadian border paperwork.
Don't be such a prick.
What a prickish way to judge visa paperwork
UK - Reams of unfair bullshit
EU - Exactly right and what you voted for
If I looked at it I might complain about EU visa paperwork, but that's not really the point.
Actually, it’s the almost the same point. The Brexiteers decided to introduce barriers which weren’t there before, which greatly restrict such cultural exchange with Europe. It’s a direct result of the crappy deal we ended up doing.
Diagnosis: indy isn't happening for a generation. The SNP have fucked it up. The long hard road to recovery begins with a re-run of the leadership campaign, and the removal of Yousless, who is helplessly tainted and was, quite possibly, installed via a fraudulent process
If there polls were neck and neck at say 38pc.. what would the likely result be?
Tories about 40 short of a majority.
Labour would take office with Lib-Dem/SNP/Green abstaining on their first Queens Speech/Budget and we'd be back to the polls within the year?
That should be Kings Speech of course.
Still hard to get your head around us having a King rather than a Queen... And does anyone else still refer to Charles as Prince Charles rather than King Charles? I think Charles destiny is to forever be the King that everyone remembers as a Prince lol...
When are the stamps changing? Or the banknotes?
I think the stamps have already gone into circulation, although the Royal Mail will still sell the existing stocks of QE2 stamps until they're exhausted. The first batch of coins were recently released - 50p pieces, I believe - but the new banknotes have been embargoed until next year. Apparently every ATM and every automated till that accepts notes in the country is going to have to be recalibrated to recognise them.
Had to pay EUR48 for my three kids to visit Knossos and the Archaeological Museum in Heraklion. EU citizens under 26 go free. Another fantastic Brexit dividend.
They tell you this, but it isn’t true. The Cretan minor tour is a myth.
Yes it was very good. It's still a fucking miserable situation to find ourselves in, though. It's made me properly depressed.
So you begrudge investing in your children’s’ education? Or you resent supporting archaeological investigations and cultural protection in other countries?
I think it's sad that British young people are excluded from opportunities to learn about our European cultural heritage. More broadly, I think it is sad that while young people across Europe are sharing ideas, falling in love and living without borders, our young people are shut out from the opportunities that others take for granted - and we used to too. I don't mind paying the money - EUR48 is less than 20 minutes work for me - but there are plenty of young people who will simply not have these opportunities now. That is desperately sad.
They are not excluded from the opportunity. It’s just not paid for by people poorer than you
They are excluded if they can't afford it. My kids are fine. But an inner city school trip, or a couple of kids backpacking around Europe, might find themselves excluded. That is pretty sad. But it is exactly what the Tory right want.
Had to pay EUR48 for my three kids to visit Knossos and the Archaeological Museum in Heraklion. EU citizens under 26 go free. Another fantastic Brexit dividend.
They tell you this, but it isn’t true. The Cretan minor tour is a myth.
Yes it was very good. It's still a fucking miserable situation to find ourselves in, though. It's made me properly depressed.
So you begrudge investing in your children’s’ education? Or you resent supporting archaeological investigations and cultural protection in other countries?
I think it's sad that British young people are excluded from opportunities to learn about our European cultural heritage. More broadly, I think it is sad that while young people across Europe are sharing ideas, falling in love and living without borders, our young people are shut out from the opportunities that others take for granted - and we used to too. I don't mind paying the money - EUR48 is less than 20 minutes work for me - but there are plenty of young people who will simply not have these opportunities now. That is desperately sad.
Its tragic . There’s also a real nastiness with some Leavers who seem to take joy in this cultural vandalism. The Tories and the rest of the Vote Leave cabal should rot in hell . Shame on all those who robbed the younger generation especially of their freedom of movement rights.
It hasn't exactly gone unpunished. The BLM protests where the cenotaph was trashed could be seen as a sort of cultural/generational revenge for Brexit. The people you are describing above who voted Brexit got nothing of the vision of the world they thought they were imposing on young people (after 'taking back control'... lol)
I would have preferred that we could have found a way of avoiding both Brexit and the extremities of the 'woke' stuff that came afterwards and which, to my mind, is best understood as a form of cultural revenge for Brexit.
The government must have hoped that simply making bloodcurdling threats would be enough to dissuade the boat people; that's two barges full there and then and more than Rwanda Air can process, even if that scheme ever gets off the ground.
It's not my tribe, but anyone like to suggest a number that will cause those who think that reducing boat people numbers is a key priority to conclude that Rishi and Sue are blagging / failing?
There'll probably be a mass influx in the Summer when conditions in the Channel become more clement. The blagging probably won't last any longer than the first 1,000 migrant day making the headlines.
The terrible situation in the Med between Greece and Malta with a stranded boat containing 400 immigrants drifting at sea with the skipper having gone awol and nobody is going to their rescue
If there polls were neck and neck at say 38pc.. what would the likely result be?
Tories about 40 short of a majority.
Labour would take office with Lib-Dem/SNP/Green abstaining on their first Queens Speech/Budget and we'd be back to the polls within the year?
That should be Kings Speech of course.
Still hard to get your head around us having a King rather than a Queen... And does anyone else still refer to Charles as Prince Charles rather than King Charles? I think Charles desinty of forever to be the King that everyone remembers as a Prince lol...
Whenever I read about the Prince of Wales I always think ah Prince Charles, not Prince WIlliam.
If there polls were neck and neck at say 38pc.. what would the likely result be?
Tories about 40 short of a majority.
Labour would take office with Lib-Dem/SNP/Green abstaining on their first Queens Speech/Budget and we'd be back to the polls within the year?
That should be Kings Speech of course.
Still hard to get your head around us having a King rather than a Queen... And does anyone else still refer to Charles as Prince Charles rather than King Charles? I think Charles desinty of forever to be the King that everyone remembers as a Prince lol...
Whenever I read about the Prince of Wales I always think ah Prince Charles, not Prince WIlliam.
Diagnosis: indy isn't happening for a generation. The SNP have fucked it up. The long hard road to recovery begins with a re-run of the leadership campaign, and the removal of Yousless, who is helplessly tainted and was, quite possibly, installed via a fraudulent process
Hard to argue with much of that
Rather liked this line: "He (Yousaf) dutifully showed his gratitude by unveiling a ministry that, in political terms, resembles a painting by Hieronymus Bosch."
However his solution, a re-run with Forbes and Regan duly elected, would only result in the ship splitting up altogether as the "progressives" headed for the liferafts. You have to remember that a huge segment of the SNP is extremely left-wing and would be aghast at a Forbes supremacy.
Had to pay EUR48 for my three kids to visit Knossos and the Archaeological Museum in Heraklion. EU citizens under 26 go free. Another fantastic Brexit dividend.
They tell you this, but it isn’t true. The Cretan minor tour is a myth.
Yes it was very good. It's still a fucking miserable situation to find ourselves in, though. It's made me properly depressed.
So you begrudge investing in your children’s’ education? Or you resent supporting archaeological investigations and cultural protection in other countries?
I think it's sad that British young people are excluded from opportunities to learn about our European cultural heritage. More broadly, I think it is sad that while young people across Europe are sharing ideas, falling in love and living without borders, our young people are shut out from the opportunities that others take for granted - and we used to too. I don't mind paying the money - EUR48 is less than 20 minutes work for me - but there are plenty of young people who will simply not have these opportunities now. That is desperately sad.
Its tragic . There’s also a real nastiness with some Leavers who seem to take joy in this cultural vandalism. The Tories and the rest of the Vote Leave cabal should rot in hell . Shame on all those who robbed the younger generation especially of their freedom of movement rights.
It hasn't exactly gone unpunished. The BLM protests where the cenotaph was trashed could be seen as a sort of cultural/generational revenge for Brexit. The people you are describing above who voted Brexit got nothing of the vision of the world they thought they were imposing on young people (after 'taking back control'... lol)
I would have preferred that we could have found a way of avoiding both Brexit and the extremities of the 'woke' stuff that came afterwards and which, to my mind, is best understood as a form of cultural revenge for Brexit.
I don't think BLM and Brexit are really related. Although they both speak of a pretty profound rift in worldview between the under 40s and the over 60s.
If there polls were neck and neck at say 38pc.. what would the likely result be?
Tories about 40 short of a majority.
Labour would take office with Lib-Dem/SNP/Green abstaining on their first Queens Speech/Budget and we'd be back to the polls within the year?
That should be Kings Speech of course.
Still hard to get your head around us having a King rather than a Queen... And does anyone else still refer to Charles as Prince Charles rather than King Charles? I think Charles desinty of forever to be the King that everyone remembers as a Prince lol...
Whenever I read about the Prince of Wales I always think ah Prince Charles, not Prince WIlliam.
Whenever I hear King Charles, I STILL go "spaniel".
If there polls were neck and neck at say 38pc.. what would the likely result be?
Tories about 40 short of a majority.
Labour would take office with Lib-Dem/SNP/Green abstaining on their first Queens Speech/Budget and we'd be back to the polls within the year?
That should be Kings Speech of course.
Still hard to get your head around us having a King rather than a Queen... And does anyone else still refer to Charles as Prince Charles rather than King Charles? I think Charles desinty of forever to be the King that everyone remembers as a Prince lol...
Whenever I read about the Prince of Wales I always think ah Prince Charles, not Prince WIlliam.
The government must have hoped that simply making bloodcurdling threats would be enough to dissuade the boat people; that's two barges full there and then and more than Rwanda Air can process, even if that scheme ever gets off the ground.
It's not my tribe, but anyone like to suggest a number that will cause those who think that reducing boat people numbers is a key priority to conclude that Rishi and Sue are blagging / failing?
We were told that the mere threat would stop the arrivals.
Quite blustery in the channel today, so fewer arrivals I think.
If there polls were neck and neck at say 38pc.. what would the likely result be?
Tories about 40 short of a majority.
Labour would take office with Lib-Dem/SNP/Green abstaining on their first Queens Speech/Budget and we'd be back to the polls within the year?
That should be Kings Speech of course.
Still hard to get your head around us having a King rather than a Queen... And does anyone else still refer to Charles as Prince Charles rather than King Charles? I think Charles desinty of forever to be the King that everyone remembers as a Prince lol...
Whenever I read about the Prince of Wales I always think ah Prince Charles, not Prince WIlliam.
Whenever I hear King Charles, I STILL go "spaniel".
Coincidentally many people on this board go 'Cocker.'
If there polls were neck and neck at say 38pc.. what would the likely result be?
Tories about 40 short of a majority.
Labour would take office with Lib-Dem/SNP/Green abstaining on their first Queens Speech/Budget and we'd be back to the polls within the year?
That should be Kings Speech of course.
Still hard to get your head around us having a King rather than a Queen... And does anyone else still refer to Charles as Prince Charles rather than King Charles? I think Charles desinty of forever to be the King that everyone remembers as a Prince lol...
Whenever I read about the Prince of Wales I always think ah Prince Charles, not Prince WIlliam.
Whenever I hear King Charles, I STILL go "spaniel".
That's a very cavalier attitude to take, if I may say.
So, he's complaining about people taking offence at things... while simultaneously taking offence at gays and the like.
The irony is strong with this one.
True, but he wasn't demanding police go and arrest gays was he?
I hardly think that is the point at issue, unless of course the dolls in the pub were [edit] dressed in pink or something.
That story is barmy on all levels. Six rozzers turn up to nick a bunch of golliwogs from a boozer owned by a couple who think they live in a 70s sitcom. The couple are clearly vile creatures, but 6 coppers? Couldn't they have just sent a pcso to find out what's going on and then clarify the situation and then take appropriate action, rather than make martyrs out of the bigoted tossers?
Oh, quite. Unless they did it in opening hours and were worried about the customer reaction? But then why do it then?
Ah, this just up. Apparently Ms Braverman didn't tick off the Essex plod after all. [Edit: at least, not to Plod's face.]
'Essex police have denied being rebuked by Suella Braverman for seizing a collection of golliwog dolls that were on display in a pub.
Officers from the force took several dolls from the White Hart Inn in Grays, Essex, last week as part of an investigation into an alleged hate crime reported in February.
A source close to Braverman suggested the home secretary had reprimanded the force over the raid, according to MailOnline. [...]
But sources at the force said no contact had been made by Braverman over the investigation.'
We can rest easy in our beds, now that the gollys of Essex are in custody.
So, he's complaining about people taking offence at things... while simultaneously taking offence at gays and the like.
The irony is strong with this one.
True, but he wasn't demanding police go and arrest gays was he?
I hardly think that is the point at issue, unless of course the dolls in the pub were [edit] dressed in pink or something.
That story is barmy on all levels. Six rozzers turn up to nick a bunch of golliwogs from a boozer owned by a couple who think they live in a 70s sitcom. The couple are clearly vile creatures, but 6 coppers? Couldn't they have just sent a pcso to find out what's going on and then clarify the situation and then take appropriate action, rather than make martyrs out of the bigoted tossers?
Oh, quite. Unless they did it in opening hours and were worried about the customer reaction? But then why do it then?
Ah, this just up. Apparently Ms Braverman didn't tick off the Essex plod after all. [Edit: at least, not to Plod's face.]
'Essex police have denied being rebuked by Suella Braverman for seizing a collection of golliwog dolls that were on display in a pub.
Officers from the force took several dolls from the White Hart Inn in Grays, Essex, last week as part of an investigation into an alleged hate crime reported in February.
A source close to Braverman suggested the home secretary had reprimanded the force over the raid, according to MailOnline. [...]
But sources at the force said no contact had been made by Braverman over the investigation.'
We can rest easy in our beds, now that the gollys of Essex are in custody.
Comments
A pregnant Anya Cook went to a hospital experiencing a pre-viability rupture, but because of Florida’s abortion law, the hospital would not treat her. She ended up having a miscarriage in the bathroom of a hair salon, losing half the blood in her body.
https://twitter.com/keithboykin/status/1645469486366208001
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/apr/10/essex-police-deny-braverman-rebuked-them-over-pub-seizure-of-golliwog-dolls
'Essex police have denied being rebuked by Suella Braverman for seizing a collection of golliwog dolls that were on display in a pub.
Officers from the force took several dolls from the White Hart Inn in Grays, Essex, last week as part of an investigation into an alleged hate crime reported in February.
A source close to Braverman suggested the home secretary had reprimanded the force over the raid, according to MailOnline. [...]
But sources at the force said no contact had been made by Braverman over the investigation.'
We offered the EU reciprocal visa waivers for touring punks
They said punk you, so the EU punks got punked at the border (because they didn't have the right reams of punking paperwork)
You brought US punks visiting the EU into it
Then you got needlessly aggressive
Go punk yourself
If there's an elephant in the room with Labour, it should be more obvious as to what the elephant is.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1h
Sunak vs Starmer (9 April):
Sunak leads on:
Can work well with foreign leaders (39% | 35%)
Can build a strong economy (38% | 37%)
Starmer leads on:
Represents change (43% | 30%)
Cares about people like me (41% | 28%)
Knows how to get things done (35% | 33%)
Making Sunak the "change" candidate, like John Major in 92 doesn't seem to have worked (perhaps because Con have changed leaders so many times since 2016?) but it's interesting that Sunak now had a small lead on building a strong economy.
People perhaps starting to feel inflation has peaked?
10 gains, 8 losses.
Think I'd have to go quite a way to find a Morrisons though..
We could argue until the cows come home about whether it would be best to use flexibility in the public finances to spend more on schools, or defence, or to lower the tax burden. That's by-the-by: if I were close to ministers and fixated on nothing else beyond their self-interest in remaining in office, I'd advise them to cut tax rather than spend more. They can always find something else to tax to raise more money, after the election is safely out of the way, if they feel the necessity.
As to what I think is best, I believe that a high tax burden is unavoidable because our public services and our infrastructure are both in a state and a very large fraction of the adult population is, putting it crudely, sick, fat or old. As to where this should come from: less onerous taxes on earned incomes, much higher taxation of asset wealth, and a lot of money can be freed up going forward by downgrading the triple lock to something less generous, so that pensioner incomes don't keep accelerating away from those of working people in an unsustainable fashion.
That’s more than just DKs returning - I’m sure the number breaking to Labour was nearer 20% a few weeks back.
I do have some doubts about this poll - the largest England sub sample, London, has 32% Conservative while the larger YouGov last week had an 18% Conservative VI so perhaps some over sampling of London Tories has just pushed this close to outlier territory.
Resetting the R&W numbers to the YouGov numbers would add 1% to the overall Labour total and take 1.5% off the Conservative number.
I don't mind paying the money - EUR48 is less than 20 minutes work for me - but there are plenty of young people who will simply not have these opportunities now. That is desperately sad.
Redfield & Wilton
Lab 31%
SNP 31%
Labour actually led before roundings.
You can't deal with crumbling schools and hospitals, vast numbers of NHS vacancies, recruiting all those extra police Labour claim to want, clearing the backlogs in the criminal justice system, putting the social care problem to bed and much else besides without a lot of money. Labour needs to list its priorities, explain how they will make people's lives better, and explain which kinds of businesses and individuals are going to be treated with kid gloves, and who is going to be grabbed by the ankles and shaken down to pay for it all.
Timidity won't cut it here. If Labour try to sell themselves as better managers of the existing system then Tory voters will stick with the real Tories rather than the fake ones, and Labour voters will have nothing to inspire them to turn out.
(It wouldn't surprise me if something similar happened soon, in the UK.)
Don't get excited by them.
Is that likely?
The point is that we were promised both our cake and eating it, and that Britain held all the cards, and those turned out to be profoundly false ideas.
Britain - perhaps more specifically London - was the financial and cultural capital of Europe before Brexit, and slowly but surely those positions are being eroded.
The attempt to deflect criticism onto the Guardian/the punks/the EU is merely a perpetuation of Brexity gaslighting.
As a parallel - imagine a mugger stopped you on the street and took all of your money except £20 so you could get a taxi home. Would you consider that a bribe?
Of the remainder, it only takes a sufficient number to dislike or distrust the Tories a smidgen less than Labour to make up the numbers.
Once again I emphasise that, given the Conservatives have been in power for a long time, how many people have been economically immiserated in recent years, and that a decent chunk of the population has repented of Brexit, I'm not expecting them actually to win - but I don't think the scenario is wholly implausible either.
There must be a significant chance of a Labour lead in a real Scottish poll quite soon. Especially for Westminster. As has been noted, support for Indy has become detached from support for the SNP, which is truly bad news for the Nits
Also, right now, what person with an IQ over 63 is thinking “yep, the SNP, they’re doing well and they deserve my vote”
The Scottish government is this week expected to lodge a judicial review of the section 35 order introduced by Westminster to block the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill, which would allow people to change gender more quickly and reduce the age threshold to 16.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ditch-court-challenge-to-gender-reform-veto-opponents-urge-humza-yousaf-j5j0h0zl3
https://www.decanter.com/wine-reviews/italy/tuscany/lidl-corte-alle-mura-chianti-riserva-tuscany-italy-2019-62337
Yes, there's been a move back to the Conservatives recently, but their average is still comparable with where they were with ICM through 1995 and 1996, and we all know how that ended up.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days
Still hard to get your head around us having a King rather than a Queen... And does anyone else still refer to Charles as Prince Charles rather than King Charles? I think Charles destiny is to forever be the King that everyone remembers as a Prince lol...
It's not my tribe, but anyone like to suggest a number that will cause those who think that reducing boat people numbers is a key priority to conclude that Rishi and Sue are blagging / failing?
That shows that Trump knew exactly what he was doing in trying to disguise the payment. Hell he was even willing to pay more to do so. Bizarrely of course that means Cohen and hence Trump (because he funded it) overpaid tax just so he could disguise the nature of the payment.
Can anyone think of another reason for Trump to pay for something he didn't have to pay for (particularly taxes even if they were someone else's taxes).
Of course if he had been open in what he was doing this wouldn't have arisen.
https://musiciansunion.org.uk/campaigns/musicians-working-in-the-eu
https://www.nme.com/news/music/brexit-touring-uk-house-of-lords-2022-artist-crew-unemployment-europe-3315337
Rather more than the 4% or thereabouts that it’s likely to cost us in terms of national income.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/viewpoint/23444812.re-run-leadership-contest-can-save-snp/?ref=twtrec
Diagnosis: indy isn't happening for a generation. The SNP have fucked it up. The long hard road to recovery begins with a re-run of the leadership campaign, and the removal of Yousless, who is helplessly tainted and was, quite possibly, installed via a fraudulent process
Hard to argue with much of that
I would have preferred that we could have found a way of avoiding both Brexit and the extremities of the 'woke' stuff that came afterwards and which, to my mind, is best understood as a form of cultural revenge for Brexit.
However his solution, a re-run with Forbes and Regan duly elected, would only result in the ship splitting up altogether as the "progressives" headed for the liferafts. You have to remember that a huge segment of the SNP is extremely left-wing and would be aghast at a Forbes supremacy.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/03/28/the-prince-of-wales-of-peoples-hearts-in-peoples-hearts-and-votes/
Quite blustery in the channel today, so fewer arrivals I think.
Well, 'Cock' anyway.
A job for Constable Savage.